#you'll ever see

[sevdrag]

spoilers: i am an engineer

hello tumblr, and welcome to the most well informed shitpost you're going to see today: some Fun With Data involving the Harry Du Bois vs Vriska poll that just went around.

We started watching the poll just as the swing in votes started to happen, and as such, we're missing some crucial data I'll be upfront about. The poll started at noon, and we didn't start taking in information until the percentages started to change, at 13:53, so we don't have information on total vote count for the first 2 hours of the poll. And in the rush to nerd out about this, our first few data points of the vote swing - where you see the most change - didn't have total vote count either. There is also a brief period where I had to take my cat to the emergency room, and a longer period where my ass slept because this is just a silly tumble poll. Those present as straight lines in charts like this, but keep in mind, they could have had wild variation for all I know. However, based on the results, I doubt it. Big thanks to @smolalienbee and @pass-the-salt and I think @orderlyhouse for screencapping this data and relentlessly spamming the discord with it so that I could put it in this spreadsheet like the nerd I am. (do YOU have screencaps? DM me!)

Early on in polls like this when total vote count is low, you expect to see big swings -- with 4000 votes total, for example, the amount you need to swing a vote 1% is 80 people. As these go up, however, obviously, the amount of votes needed to swing 1% increases. By the end of this poll, 1541 tumblr users would have had to make UNCOUNTERED votes, that were NOT cancelled out, to move the poll 1%.

According to our data, the swing you see above took place over a two-and-a-half hour period. For the remaining 20 hours of the poll, votes one way or the other weren't significant enough to be seen in the tumblr results.

For those who are interested, our first data point showing the 50/50 split hits at 16:21, when total votes were at 14194. From this point on, voters would have needed at least 248 UNCOUNTERED/NOT CANCELLED OUT votes to change the poll a single 1%. Just numbers to keep in mind! We talk about this at the end :)

Any winning margin smaller than 248 would, therefore, not register to tumblr. Keep in mind that by the end of the poll this number was 1541 votes required to swing a percentage, because the total vote pool grew so heavily.

In the end, as it turns out, after 77,019 votes, the poll was won with a margin of only 618 votes. final percentages were, surprisingly neatly, 50.4% v 49.6%. Won by 0.8%! Now that's a close poll.

(thanks to @mio-nika for grabbing these and @smolalienbee for confirming!)

Because I was additionally curious, and a huge nerd, I wanted to go in and calculate votes per minute to see whether there was anything weird going on. I am going to be polite and put this under a cut to save your dash from my utter nerd joy, but I have caveats to put in here first.

The first thing to keep in mind is that your data is only as good as your collection method! In our case, it was a very unprofessional method that went: someone took a screencap and posted it in Discord, and I entered it into a spreadsheet with the time entered as whatever time Discord registered it. While this ended up being pretty accurate for a 24-hour poll, it presents the problem that will come up when we start talking about votes per minute: I only could measure in increments of a minute, because getting into seconds here would have been (a) impossible and (b) super overkill. However, that means that there's more noise in the votes-per-minute data because everything is assumed to be in increments of 1 full minute. Good scientists acknowledge the weaknesses of their data sets as they do their analysis! (Source: I worked in research for 15 fucking years lol.)

Here is my ESTIMATE of votes per minute at each of the data points taken above. The green trendline is a rolling average that tells the story of the poll, more or less: Lots of quick voting at the beginning, calming down over the (American) evening, then ramping back up at the end. Much like we'd expect, I think.

(And again, remember that the bit in the middle where Americans AND Europeans were asleep presents as a straight line here but could be ALL over the place. We don't have that data because we were sleep like good feral grownups.)

The noise at the beginning, I suspect, is again because I'm measuring over small and discrete increments of time. However, unless Tumblr wants to help me develop an app dumping real-time poll results into my EXCEL 24/7, there's no reasonable way I can see to get around this. Because of the noise there's a big standard deviation on here that I'm too lazy to really dig into because I did all of this while I was supposed to be working for the government, so imagine your error bars appropriately.

So what does this mean?

Well, let's make a couple assumptions for conversational purposes. Looks like people were voting at about 50 votes per minute during the slow times, and up over 100 votes per minute during the fast times.

At the beginning of the 50/50 period, we would have needed 248 votes one way to see the percentage change. Votes per minute at this point were flying, at about 100 votes/minute. That's only (the equivalent of) 3 minutes of voting time that would have had to go SOLID for either Vriska or Harry to produce a 1% change we could see on the face of the poll. And while we certainly weren't watching it live, the density of our data for the next hour or so was pretty solid, and we didn't see a 1% change. We have screencaps, baby! 248 votes going one way or the other at this particular point is chump change at that speed, so it IS surprising that we didn't see more scatter around 49/51 for an hour or so before things settled in.

In fact, I would stretch to say it's unusual to have seen such an even curve as the percentages changed on their way to 50/50, in a case where a few minutes' worth of solid voters could still have an impact, but as this is the first time I've ever done anything like this on a fucking tumble poll, I am not putting money on that either.

If someone wants to pay me, I am more than happy to become a tumble poll expert!

At the end of the poll, votes were also flying in, on average about 80 votes per minute. At this point, we would have needed over 1500 votes one way or another to see a last-minute shift. That's (the equivalent of) 19 solid straight minutes of every single voter picking the same candidate. So at the end it is NOT surprising to not see any 49/51 fluctuation. This is why once polls settle in, they so rarely change. It's just statistics.

So, Sev. Was this poll botted? I don't fucking know. We all need to go outside. However, if you're going to make drama on it, please do it on this post so that I can see. I'm getting laid off in 2 days and I would love the distraction and entertainment!

And a big thanks to @handwrittenhello for all the work they put in to this, and personally for providing me with an opportunity to spend a day doing one of my favorite things: working with data in Excel!

#tumblr's plmm contest #statistics #the most detailed #shitpost #you'll ever see #I WILL SHITPOST SCHOOL YOUR ASSES

[creatureimages]

christmas beetle season‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️

wahoo! hooray!

#beetle #christmas beetle #coleoptera #scarabaeidae #anoplognathus #it is so sick to see these guys!!!!!!!! #probably a. porosus if i had to guess #absolutely awful dogshit clumsiest fliers you'll ever see :) #actually maybe a. rugosus or olivieri. im shit at beetles

[gallusgalluss]

minute 4 of the game

#saw the og tweet a while ago n thought ''Wow that's Filbo. That's Flippo this tweet is about Flumpo'' #bugsnax #filbo fiddlepie #cluck cluck #rip Philibus you'll never see the light of day ever again

[abyssalzones]

to this day i think the best part of journal 3 was definitely just these two going hiking in the pacific northwest, both ill-equipped in different ways but clearly having a lot of fun.

#gravity falls #stanford pines #fiddleford mcgucket #fiddauthor #well not explicitly per say but that's what it always is lol #i will always be So so glad that we got this before everything started going downhill for them #ok not elaborating any further. you'll see my thoughts in time. #lab creations #going to try and not apologize for only ever drawing gf stuff lately idk they just have my brain gripped

[mobius-m-mobius]

LOKI APPRECIATION WEEK 2023 | for @dailyloki Day 2 : Favorite Episode : S02xE01 - Ouroboros

#mobius #loki #lokius #dailyloki #lokiweek2023 #mcuedit #lokiedit #marveledit #owen wilson #tom hiddleston #have honestly always wanted to make something like this and love it sm but if i try to again someone please stop me lmao #anyway tag the moment your life changed! mine was mobius asking where loki was with the softest disbelief i've ever heard #bc he couldn't imagine not knowing he was back or that he would have the chance to see him again so soon if ever 🥺💖 #so glad this is where i'll live for the rest of my days!! no other media will ever compare s02e01 ouroboros you'll always be famous #marvel #owenwilsonedit #dianagifs

[tibllec]

Cellbit existential monologing while Jaiden is screaming for help in the background 💀

#cellbit #jaiden animations #lethal company #qsmp #best clips you'll ever see

[feverdreamsanddelusions]

we really need more ship whump. ocean whump. stuck on a boat. whumpee going outside at night because there's not really a reason they should be restrained. because all the can see around them is the pitch black ocean stretching into infinity

#it's funny because everyone keeps saying there's huge potential but i only ever see the posts about the missed opportunity #and never someone actually sitting down and writing it #and now i am in........ the same boat #and the boat is not getting written #this is the most boat whump you'll get from me probably #whump #whump prompt #whump scenario

[shadowqnights]

golden slumbers fill your eyes / smiles awake you when you rise

#minecraft diaries #aphmau #mcd #garroth ro'meave #laurance zvahl #dante #nicole von ronsenburg #aphmau lucinda #katelyn the firefist #nana ashida #kawaii chan #zane ro'meave #bee's artbuzz #this is a recreation of the first poster i ever drew for mcd and it was. Something. uits so strange seeing how far my art has come. #how far my character designs have come too my goodness #sorry to the characters who didnt make it in that i actively dislike #i'm sure you'll shine later. not now though

[ryllen]

You know I am surprise Sebek that is never jealous to anyone who is close to Yuu. It is a boys school and I can imagine some have crushes on her.

#jk jk it's a total tragedy for sebek if he ever loves the same person as the one malleus loves #i swear malleus just loves the company #or is he #he did give me a little heart throb at the masquerade but that's all just yet #i can't really imagine anyone else likes her #malleus draconia #because partly i really don't plan of shipping her in the first place #sebek was a total surprise development fhsdshdh #this question arose at the time she was being shoved to jack #i can see that jack is totally someone to be jealous at ha ha; he is a total hunk #but i feel like sebek see him as a solid trustable friend than a snatcher who would disrespect him #i did think of a scenario from how sebek is jealous of malleus drinking coffee with silver that goes like... #yuu talking to silver; sebek be like “WHAT WHY ARE U TALKING TO SILVER MORE” #and yuu be like “bcs silver whispers when he talks” #and stubborn as he is sebek be like “I CAN TALK IN WHISPER TOO” #and he sat there and tried so hard to whisper which pretty much end up as at the very least normal talking voice #and Sebek just “GRRR NGRHRHHRH!!!!!! YOU'LL SEE I'LL WHISPER PROPERLY ONE DAY!!!! AND U'LL HANG OOUT WITH ME MORE” #fjsdsdj #but i don't even know what would yuu talk with silver #i didn't even realize before that silver is actually in 2nd class #they look so same age #yuu be like - . - to everyone anyhow #she just keeps the guy act while brushing off the thought whether the others already know she is a girl or not #sebek zigvolt #twst yuu #twst mc #twisted wonderland #twst #fanart

[poorly-drawn-mdzs]

Your posts about wen ning are making me very sad. He just wants a hug 😔 can we wrap him up in a weighted blanket instead of chains? Much more comforting and still deadly when thrown at others!

He has been blanketed and given a mug of hot coco.

#poorly drawn mdzs #mdzs #ask #wen ning #WWX made the hot coco so it contains pepper flakes #(I also enjoy hot coco with Added Spices. I love adding cinnamon and pepper flakes. But it's not for everyone...) #I've had people try my hot coco and say things like 'Why' and 'what did you do?' and 'There's no way you enjoy this'. #but I do ! I love hot coco! I just make good on the promise of 'hot'. #Anyways. Wen Ning has a very dulled sense of taste (thats my headcanon) and can tolerate pretty much anything #If he ever has to eat anything it would be scavenged. Like a raccoon. You'll find him rooting through your trash. #Hitting you with those sad wet eyes to stun you into silence as he makes his escape #Anyways! 1 reblog is 1 refill of hot coco for this very cold and wet boy. 1 like is a blanket. Let's see how he fares.

[pixelglam]

Dinner at the end of summer. ☀️🍷

@pierisim @myshunosun @somik-severinka @pinkbox-anye

#ever since i realised i can just make the dining tables pretty like i love doing in real life i refuse to not decorate them #you'll never see a plain table from me ever again #the plates are from daengsims *cough* v*ult *cough* #also most of the decor food is from leo and pinkbox anye #pixelglam #ts4 #ts4 simblr #the sims 4 #sims 4 #the sims 4 simblr #sims 4 screenshots #ts4 decor #ts4 interior #ts4 build #ts4 builds #the sims community #ts4 house #brownstone* #mybuilds

[abstrekt]

Finally got around to doing some redraws of THE BEST lower decks episode!!!! No I am not biased

#ignore that the screen recordings i took are the CRUNCHIEST thing you'll ever see #I know I'm like 5 months late #sorry y'all #left my animation stuff at home so I could focus on school #so I've been sitting on this idea for a hot minute #ds9 is a drug to me #girl help how do i tag this #deep space nine #quark #kira nerys #lower decks #star trek #animation #fanart #not described

[the-ships-to-rule-them-all]

the level at which people are misusing the term "Never Again" in the far left absolutely infuriates me.

"Never Again" doesn't refer to the idea of no more genocides -- unfortunately people are evil and corrupt and seek scapegoats and destruction, there were genocides in the years following the Holocaust, there were genocides 10 years ago, there are multiple genocides going on as we speak

"Never Again" means we as Jews will pay attention to the warning signs, will not mindlessly allow antisemitism to fester and take over our communities, we will fight back. it means we will be proud. it means we will not let you hate us without a word of refusal.

"Never Again" is a warning for us, it is a reminder that what happened then can happen now -- is happening now. The Far Left doesn't get to use it against us. You don't get to turn our tragedies into hate-speech and antisemitic rhetoric.

Am Yisrael Chai

#abby speaks #that fucking NYT article made me rage so much #needed to get this out #if this somehow makes you pissed at me go ahead the unfollow button is right there #I have always said that Palestinians deserve a state and I have always believed that Israel has a right to exist #the lack of knowledge at these “protests” shocks me - people don't know which river or which sea; they don't know about the hostages #free gaza from hamas #we are allowed to mourn the “protests” started before we'd even had a chance to. #I will never ever forgive or forget the people that have made mourning still feel impossible #I am not about to sit here and say that the Israeli government is blameless #however if you didn't know that 1000s of Israeli have spent the past year protesting against Netenyahu's right wing government shut up #we need actual solutions; neither Israelis nor Palestinians are going anywhere #and you guys need to start calling out the antisemitism in your movement #I have my doubts on that actually happening and you'll never see me donate to a lot of these causes again #the goy left has lost my respect and my trust and now it only has my side-eye #sorry for the rant in the tags it's been an exhausting few months

[mwagneto]

jack remarking that he's "missed this" while running from danger with the doctor is so crazy like his life since the doctor left him has been nothing but constant danger as the head of torchwood except back there he's thrust into the role of leader as the person who's objectively the most experienced but he's just some guy!! he doesn't know anything he's constantly fucking up and put in impossible situations and ruining things and we even see how easily the team organises in his absence. like clearly he did not miss danger he just missed having someone who can tell him which way to run from it....

#LIKE IT'S SO CRAZY. JACK PRETENDS TO BE ALL WISE AND MYSTERIOUS TO HIS TEAM BUT HE'S LITERALLY JUST SOME GUY #HE HAS TO MAKE DOCTOR-LEVEL DECISIONS W THE SAME STAKES AND EVERYONE EXPECTS HIM TO BE #ABLE TO MAKE THEM SO HE DOES (often badly!!!!!) BUT HE'S LITERALLY. JUST SOME GUY. he's just some guy.... #the way i'm still only 10 minutes into the episode #like they're both such good characters and their story is like the most fucked up thing you'll ever see. AND they're gay #guhhhhh i need to put them in jars and keep them on my shelf fr #doctor who #3x11 utopia #jackdoctor #10th doctor #jack harkness #dw lb #torchwood #i guess???

[tibllec]

Fit: take some fucking soap- YOU ATE SOAP? YOU DUMBASS

[Full transcript under cut]

Tubbo: Wait how come all your clothes are back to normal? Did you not get messed up in purgatory? Fit: No I just changed dude Tubbo: Oh, I'm lazy Fit: It's called take a shower, lazy! Take a fucking shower holy shit! Tubbo: I would never do such a thing Fit: Hey, you're a father now. You need to- You know, take your personal hygiene seriously. You know what? Here, take some fucking soap, dirty. Take some fucking soap. Tubbo: [walks into water] Let me just hop in here with the soap. [Eats the soap and gets poisoned] Ow! Ow! Oh god I ate it Fit: You ate soap? You dumbass! Tubbo: I ate it, I'm sorry!

#qsmp #tubbo #fitmc #qsmp clips #best clips you'll ever see

[misaothewitch]

And the award for doing EVERYTHING with your "best friend" goes to:

#I mean do we ever really see them apart #especially Nilcent and Stedrika #but walty are also pretty much glued together #young royals #my tip: #get you a friend you can hang out with 24/7 and you'll survive the boarding school just fine #stedrika #walty #nilcent #stella x fredrika