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#that Trump & the Repubs are likely to win

reasonsforhope · 6 months

Note

Do you have any advice for dealing with election anxiety?

I think/hope so!

First, a couple caveats:

I'm from the US, so US perspective, and about US 2024 elections

I know more about politics/follow them more than like, at least 85% of US Americans? But I am not an expert.

Environment/climate news and climate hope are science-based and can be measured/predicted empirically wayyyyy more than politics can, because People

I'm not getting into the trenches around Democrats vs. the Left vs. Liberals vs. Progressives. In this post, we're all in one big venn diagram of mostly interchangeable terms

So, first off, maybe my biggest piece of advice is this: The antidote to anxiety is action.

Find something you can do to help - anything. Anxiety is like fear - it's part of your brain's alarm system. It's part of your brain's mechanism for telling you that you need to do something

So if you listen to that alarm and do something, your brain won't feel the same need to desperately escalate the alarm system

You can look up and sign up for actions, protests, petitions, letter-writing campaigns, phone banking, canvassing, and more for candidates near you at Mobilize.us (no Repubs on here I promise). They also work with Swing Left a lot - a group that helps voters look up and focus on helping the nearest race that is actually competitive (because most of them aren't!)

Again, that's Mobilize.us and Swing Left as two of the best places to find out how and where to help, and sign up to do so

Other than that, I don't have advice specifically so much as I have "some useful and more hopeful ways to think about the coming US election" and to a lesser extent democracy in general

1. The media is going to underreport how well the Left and/or Democrats are doing, basically no matter what.

So, although we can't get cocky about it, this is something absolutely worth remembering when you see just about any polling or predictions about the 2024 elections.

Here's why:

Poling is weird and often inaccurate and skews in a lot of ways and is inherently biased, and it's less accurate the further you are from an election. Also, the electoral college is a huge complication here

This skewing is built into both the interpretation of the poll and the design of the poll itself - how many people do they sample? Demographic spread? Polls try to go for "likely voters," but how well can you predict that, especially as voting rates for young people and marginalized groups are rising, often dramatically?

Right now, those biases are all skewing most to all polls and predictions to the right. Including from basically all pollsters, as well as left-wing media and news outlets.

Now, THAT'S NOT INHERENTLY A BAD THING. It's not because they don't want the Left to win. It's because in 2016, basically all mainstream media, including left-leaning media, said that there was a very low chance Trump was going to win. They said that Hillary Clinton had it in the bag. So they're all correcting for the huge inaccuracy in the 2016 (and 2020 and 2022 tbh) elections

Not only were they catastrophically and humiliatingly wrong about that, they then had to deal with the fact that that very reporting was part of why Clinton lost in 2016 - voters heard she was probably going to win, so they felt safe staying home instead of voting

And then the 2020 election polls were also super wrong, mostly in the other direction

Polling as a field is undergoing a massive shakeup around this, trying to figure out how to not fuck up that badly again, but they haven't figured it out yet, so right now they're skewing things to compensate

That's for the sake of both their own credibility and, you know, the part where just about no one in either left-wing or mainstream media or mainstream polling orgs wants Trump to win

So they're going to underreport Democratic chances on purpose to a) compensate for the bias skewing things toward Democrats in their models, and b) to make sure that they don't accidentally help Trump win again

Sources: x, x, x, x, x, x, x, x, x, x, x

Reasons the Republicans are in more trouble than a lot of people think

Democrats are largely closing ranks hard around Biden, because no matter what they think of Biden, they know a Repub victory would be a thousand times worse

Republicans, however, are absolutely NOT unifying around a candidate. And they're also the ones who go around saying a ton of awful and offensive and wildly untrue things about their opponents. Meaning that the Republican primary is about to get fucking messy, and probably all of their candidates will be tarred in the process

So, basically, the Republican candidates are all going to be busy smearing the fuck out of each other - while Biden mostly doesn't have to deal with that level of negative campaigning against him for months and months

As studies show, in politics, "a negative frame is much more persistent, or “stickier,” than a positive one. If you come at an issue negatively, but are later reminded of the policy's positive aspects, you will still think it's a bust."

Also, Biden is gonna get basically all presidential-race left-wing big-name donor money, while the Right will have that money split a bunch of ways and blow through it hard on infighting, creating a probable funding gap

Trump's campaign contributions are all going to pay his legal fees. Like, to the extent that last month, his main PAC had just $4 million in cash on hand - because they siphoned over $101 million to pay his legal fees (muahahaha)

Sources: x, x, x, x, x, x, x

Other hopeful things to consider

Yes, Trump's indictments and trials are, unfortunately, boosting his numbers among his supporters. However, that's only with the hard right wing - and you can't win a general election with just the far right. He needs to appeal to independent voters and moderate Repubs - and every indictment and trial hurts his chances with them. x, x

In 2022, literally everyone was predicting a "red tsunami." And they were wrong: it never happened. Instead, Democrats picked up a seat in the senate, lost a third or less of the seats in the House that they were expected to, and won a number of statewide races. x, x, x, x, x

DeSantis's decision to go to war with Disney stands to do him a lot of fucking hard. Disney isn't just powerful in general - it's an unbelievably powerful force and employer in DeSantis's home state of Florida. Disney has already pulled a $1 billion project from Florida due to the feud, is responsible for "half" of FL's tourism industry, and and is branding DeSantis as "anti-corporation" and "anti-business" - dangerous charges in the right wing. x, x, x, x, x, x

Abortion is an issue that gets voters to the polls. This is an issue on which politicians are wildly out of step with voters: Numbers change depending on how you break it down, but generally 60% to 70% of Americans think abortion should be legal - which is, in election terms, is a landslide. For years, that momentum has been with Republicans. Well, now it's with us, and so far pro-choice candidates and ballot propositions have done way better than expected. To quote Vox, in 2022, "abortion rights won in all six states with abortion ballot measures, including in red states like Kentucky and Montana that otherwise elected Republican lawmakers." x, x, x, x, x, x, x, x, x

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doubleddenden · 1 year

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Part of me thinks that they should just give the Speaker of the House election to the person with the most votes and skip this "majority vote" shit because the person with the most votes literally was voted by the majority of the voters for that ballot (you know, like normal voting SHOULD work), and this is just going to bite us Americans in the ass the longer they go on. Like why should we have to wait for the Repubs to win when they've lost 13 times so far?

The other half hopes one of those old farts just snaps and throws a chair at McCarthy, or the person who nominated Trump

And then a secret third part of me is curious if we can break the record of 44 ballots set in 1859. Like okay yeah, the government ain't getting shit done, and we're probably fucked, but let's go for a record!

#us politics #speaker of the house #edit because the repubs found this post weeks after it lost relevancy: i don't care. go away. im not your far right echo chamber

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anarchistettin · 3 months

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"how dare these deplorables find fault with our constant lying and failure, at this critical time in history"

"mm black people are actually a russian psyop, the rest of these leftists are trust fund kids"

"remember this is literally propaganda by foreign powers to get you to let an evil white man be president, a guy who ignored science and caused lots of people to get attacked"

the dem strategy for dealing with trump seems …off, if 'winning' something is the real goal

but I feel like it's actually just about fundraising, which went super well when trump was in office, so maybe, it's possible, that it isn't the minuscule american left who wants trump in office. maaaaaybe it's not an accident that dems made such a strong show of handling everything repubs couldn't get done: strike breaking, using covid for eugenics, funneling 350+billions into the police, strengthening "homeland security".

Whipping up liberals as a defense against antifascist movements wasn't something repubs were ever going to accomplish. I guess it served them really well to have a biden interim, huh?

#mutual aid or bust

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pudding-parade · 2 months

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OK, I'm sorry for posting about politics. Truly. I'll post something sims-related later to make up for it. But for me this is local politics, and Ken Buck -- a man with whom I vehemently disagree, politically, but whom I respect for his commitment to democracy and his stance on the 2020 election not being stolen and for his continuing denouncement of the January 6th insurrection despite things like death threats made against himself and his family by MAGA loonies -- has made my day today. I have literally (and I mean that in the true sense of the word) been spending my afternoon/evening periodically chortling from sheer schadenfreude, so I just have to memorialize this and hope that I don't have to eat my words in November.

For context, or for non-USians, or for just the (slightly) shorter version if you don't want to look at the article....

Lauren Boebert, a super-"MAGA" fascist, is, depressingly, my current representative in the US House of Representatives. She only barely won reelection in 2022 despite the fact that, while I live in a very blue, hippie spot of it, the district has historically leaned heavily conservative because most of the district is made up of very Christian rural ranchers, who are conservative, yes, but in their case, generally speaking, traditionally so. They're mostly not the weird, Trump-flag-waving, MAGA-cult breed of it. So, Bobo only won reelection in 2022 by a few hundred votes and, since then, Adam Frisch, the centrist (which, by non-US standards, is right-wing) Democrat who opposed her and is running again, has only gotten more popular, as the House has proceeded to get absolutely nothing done, despite having a majority, precisely because of the shenanigans of MAGA idiots like Bobo.

So, Bobo decides that for the 2024 election, she'll instead run for the district east of mine, which was Mr. Buck's and which is even more conservative. She announced this decision right after Mr. Buck announced that he was retiring and would not be running for reelection. It was obvious that Bobo figured that that district would be a much easier win than the traditionally conservative district she very nearly lost.

But just today, Mr. Buck announced that instead of staying in Congress until this coming January, he's out as of this coming Friday. Which forces a special election in his district to fill his seat until January. Our (Democrat) state governor announced that that election will on the 25th of June, which is by law the longest delay possible, thus leaving Mr. Buck's seat empty until then, thus eroding the Republicans' majority until then. And if Bobo wanted to enter that special election, she'd have to resign from her current seat immediately because you can't be a sitting congressperson for one district and run for and be elected in another. Bobo has announced that she's not going to give up her current seat. And, for various reasons, all of this means that her chances of winning Buck's district in the regular election in November are now worse. And, she can't change her mind and run for reelection in the regular election for her current district, even if she wanted to, because the deadline for entering that election has recently passed.

So basically it's (probably) bye-bye Bobo! (And probably hello, Mr. Frisch for me, and while I'd be happier with a progressive, I'll take a centrist over a MAGA idiot any day.) And also? Mr. Buck, who has publicly stated that his party no longer aligns with his values, has not only screwed Bobo with his well-timed decision to "spend more time with his family," but also Mike "Christian Nationalist Fascist" Johnson, the Speaker of the House -- who, as the icing on the cake, was not informed of Mr. Buck's decision in advance of the announcement of it -- as his parting gift to MAGA.

Why? Because the Republicans now have a majority of just four or five seats, and, from next Friday until July, when Mr. Buck's (most likely Republican but perhaps not MAGA) successor will be sworn in, they now have one less, with the next election only eight months away and at a time when the Repugs need all hands on deck, so to speak, if they have any hope of getting anything at all done and, therefore, of having anything "positive" (by the conservative definition of that word) that they can talk up and run on from now until November. I'm pretty sure this big "screw you" was Mr. Buck's intention before he announced even his original retirement plans, so...Well played, Mr. Buck. Well. Played.

The question is: Will other House Republicans with integrity (there are a few left) follow Mr. Buck's lead? Could we see the House change majority before the 2024 election? It's not likely, but it's possible! And either way, this one conservative man dealt a blow to the MAGAs today, and I, as an extreme leftie, am here for it.

#non sims #oh no!#US politics #i swear US politics is a goddamn soap opera now #it would be entertaining as hell #if people's rights hadn't been lost/put in jeopardy because of people who share Bobo's views

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hermithomebase · 11 months

Note

I worked for the Biden campiagn (well, volunteered with a group affiliated with the campaign) during the 2020 election and will do so again with the same team for this next cycle. Obviously anything is possible but there are a few things to consider when looking at projections:

1) DeSantis is the best candidate the republicans have, and he's going to be weakened like craaaazy by Trump.

2) DeSantis against Biden has a decent chance but right now it's looking favorable towards Biden. Biden's chances increases if Trump wins the repub nom (unlikely). This is because Biden already won the first time again and this time he's the incumbent.

3) Anon mentioned something about Biden overpromising but underdelivering and I cannot stress enough how much that does now matter. Every president in history has done this + the country is a lot more centrist than we think. The only way to actively harm an incumbent is if they somehow make things worse during their term, which hasn't happened so far.

All in all, we've looking good so far for 2024, but after 2016 we are never ever ever letting our guard down again lmao

pepoG IT WILL BE OKAY! we just have to try 🇺🇸

#prompt.input

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crystal-charlotte-lynch · 10 months

Text

Trying my hand at Willam S. Burroughs cut-out technique

Joseph Derito, an 81-year-old retired baker in Elmyra,Overall, about half the

New York, sees immigration

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policy as not representing well in the United States, his wife, Kim Keon Hee,

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today is all for the people

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only somewhat well. About Ukraine in February 2022.

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in Cincinnati, blames economy - inflation is kill- national sanctions against

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- and more about the outputs.

#creative inspiration #creative #creative expression #creative exploration #creative writing #creativewriters #creative works #william s burroughs #cutout #literature #writers on tumblr #writers block #writers #my world

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dhaaruni · 2 years

Note

I think you've said something like this before - that ultimately, the Republicans' greatest advantage is that both Dems *and* Repub voters are scared of them, and fear is still the best motivator in politics. Masculinity is scarier than femininity.

I think that Republicans and Democrats are both terrified of their bases, which is how you get faculty lounge politics on the Dem side and people like Elise Stefanik, who’s Harvard educated, simping for Trump at his most uncouth.

Imo, Republicans’ greatest advantage is that their coalition is much more homogenous than the Democratic coalition so they don’t have to appeal to like 50 different groups who all despise each other and can just focus on winning elections. Also, they turn out rain or shine and we constantly play purity politics.

#answered #anonymous #politics

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new-bitch-who-dis · 2 years

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I dont know how to exactly put this into words, but its really weird when establishment democrats and liberals see their shit polling numbers and waning support and go:

"but the other side are literally white supremacist insurrectionists that literally block every piece of legislation we try to pass depite not controlling either congress or the presedency!1!1! Why wont people vote for us?!?!?!?!?"

And theyre right, but you try and mention the fact that people like pelosi keep backing anti-abortion dems in safe dem states over progressive dems even now,

and you try to mention the fact that senators like Manchin and Sinema are basically doing everything in their power to prevent any good legislation from being passed without it being completely gutted, while republicans use every dirty, dubiously legal tactic in the book to keep their ranks in the house and senate voting as a solid block,

and you try and mention the fact that dems have had multiple chances to codify roe, but havent for god knows what reason,

and you try and mention the fact that leaders of the democratic party like pelosi keeps trying to send this message that "No guys we TOTALLY need a strong republican party!1!1!" While the repubs do literally everything i mentioned above,

and you try and mention the fact that dems refuse to even try and help the disenfranchised voters in the insanely gerrymandered deep red states that should be purple, which makes these people feel like voting is pointless since their vote literally doesnt matter,

And their only response is to call you a far left communist who is secretly a republican who wants trump to win because HOW DARE YOU CRITICISE THE DEMOCRATS YOURE HELPING TRUMP BY BRINGING ATTENTION TO OUR FAULTS WE DONT OWE YOU SHIT AND DONT NEED YOUR VOTE YOU PROBABLY WERENT GOING TO VOTE FOR US ANYWAY SO WE DONT NEED TO PANDER TO PEOPLE LIKE YOU HOW DARE YOU VOTE BLUE NO MATTER WHO!1!1!1!1!1

And then they lose the house, the senate, and the presidency, and somehow manage to place the blame for this on Bernie Sanders and the Radical Left™ while trump makes blinking while mexican illegal or some shit.

#politics #rambling

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drwilfredwaterson · 1 month

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Purim 2024: Saturday, Mar 23, 2024 – Sunday, Mar 24, 2024. A Purim Celebration Post! The Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump is DONE! It's OVER for the Anti-American Addled-brained Asinine Air-Accordian-playing Asswipe, LIDDLE Rotten Retarded rump (he tried to make it fancy by adding a t, but Real Americans know his name literally means "ASS"; because that's what he looks and stinks like)! Here's the Proof!

Super Tuesday and Republican Primary 2024 Proof That Impeachment of All Six Unconstitutional and Criminal MAGA Insurrectionist SCOTUS Unjust "judges" Could Begin As Soon As January 3rd, 2025: Real Republicans Ran Rump-A-Rooter Over The Rotten Reviled rumpster, donnie j. Dumpster Diaper.

2024 Republican Primary Results:

2024 Republican Primary: Iowa: Republican Primary Voters 2016: 186,932; chump votes 2016 Election: 800,983; chump Votes 2020 Republican Primary: 31,421; chump 2020 Election: 897,672

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump: 56,243 votes "Never trump": 54,029 votes

*** connie j. chump only beat Joe Biden by 138,611 votes in Iowa during the 2020 election *** *** connie j. chump's 2016 Election turnout was 4.2849 times the primary vote (2020 primary data affected by pandemic--inaccurate for calculations) *** 56,243 x 4.2849 = 240,995 Projected 2024 Election votes for connie j. chump in Iowa *** *** 54,029 x 4.2849 = 231,508 Potential "Never trump" votes in Iowa *** *** If President Joe Biden maintained the same voter turnout as he received in 2020 (759,061), connie j. chump would lose Iowa's 6 Electoral College Votes by 518,066 Real American Patriot votes *** *** If President Joe Biden received the added 231,508 "Never trump" votes, connie j. chump would lose Iowa's 6 Electoral College Votes by 749,574 Real American Patriot votes ***

2024 Republican Primary: New Hampshire: Republican Primary Voters 2016: 285,916; chump Votes 2020 Republican Primary: 129,734; chump 2020 Election: 365,660

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump: 176,391 votes "Never trump": 148,184 votes

*** Joe Biden beat connie j. chump by 59,274 votes in New Hampshire during the 2020 election *** *** connie j. chump's 2020 Election turnout was 2.8185 times the primary vote *** *** 176,391 x 2.8185 = 497,158 Projected 2024 Election votes for connie j. chump in New Hampshire *** *** 148,184 x 2.8185 = 417,656 Potential "Never trump" votes in New Hampshire *** *** If President Joe Biden maintained the same voter turnout as he received in 2020 (424,937), connie j. chump could win New Hampshire's 4 Electoral College Votes by 72,221 anti-American, anti-women MAGA Nazi cult votes *** *** If President Joe Biden received the added 417,656 "Never trump" votes, connie j. chump would lose New Hampshire's 4 Electoral College Votes by 345,435 Real American Patriot votes ***

2024 Republican Primary: Nevada: Republican Primary Voters 2016: 75,482; chump votes 2016 Election: 512,058; chump Votes 2020 Republican Primary: N/A; chump 2020 Election: 669,890

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump: 59,982 votes "Never trump": 80,789 votes

*** Joe Biden beat connie j. chump by 33,596 votes in Nevada during the 2020 election *** *** connie j. chump's 2016 Election turnout was 6.7838 times the primary vote (no 2020 primary data for calculations) *** 59,982 x 6.7838 = 406,905 Projected 2024 Election votes for connie j. chump in Nevada *** *** 80,789 x 6.7838 = 548,056 Potential "Never trump" votes in Nevada *** *** If President Joe Biden maintained the same voter turnout as he received in 2020 (703,486), connie j. chump would lose Nevada's 6 Electoral College Votes by 296,581 Real American Patriot votes *** *** If President Joe Biden received the added 548,056 "Never trump" votes, connie j. chump would lose Nevada's 6 Electoral College Votes by 844,637 Real American Patriot votes ***

2024 Republican Primary: South Carolina: Republican Primary Voters 2016: 740,881; chump votes 2016 Election: 1,155,389; chump Votes 2020 Republican Primary: N/A; chump 2020 Election: 1,385,103

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump: 452,496 votes "Never trump": 304,310 votes

*** connie j. chump only beat Joe Biden by 293,562 votes in South Carolina during the 2020 election *** *** connie j. chump's 2016 Election turnout was 1.5595 times the primary vote (no 2020 primary data for calculations) *** 452,496 x 1.5595 = 705,667 Projected 2024 Election votes for connie j. chump in South Carolina *** *** 304,310 x 1.5595 = 474,571 Potential "Never trump" votes in South Carolina *** *** If President Joe Biden maintained the same voter turnout as he received in 2020 (1,091,541), connie j. chump would lose South Carolina's 9 Electoral College Votes by 385,874 Real American Patriot votes *** *** If President Joe Biden received the added 474,571 "Never trump" votes, connie j. chump would lose South Carolina's 9 Electoral College Votes by 860,445 Real American Patriot votes ***

2024 Republican Primary: Michigan: Republican Primary Voters 2016: 1,323,589; chump Votes 2020 Republican Primary: 640,552; chump 2020 Election: 2,649,852

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump: 760,467 votes "Never trump": 355,295 votes

*** Joe Biden beat connie j. chump by 154,188 votes in Michigan during the 2020 election *** *** connie j. chump's 2020 Election turnout was 4.1368 times the primary vote *** *** 760,467 x 4.1368 = 3,145,899 Projected 2024 Election votes for connie j. chump in Michigan *** *** 355,295 x 4.1368 = 1,469,784 Potential "Never trump" votes in Michigan *** *** If President Joe Biden maintained the same voter turnout as he received in 2020 (2,804,040), connie j. chump could win Michigan's 15 Electoral College Votes by 341,859 anti-American, anti-women MAGA Nazi cult votes *** *** If President Joe Biden received the added 1,469,784 "Never trump" votes, connie j. chump would lose Michigan's 15 Electoral College Votes by 1,127,925 Real American Patriot votes ***

2024 Republican Primary: Idaho: Republican Primary Voters 2016: 222,004; chump Votes 2020 Republican Primary: 112,373; chump 2020 Election: 554,119

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump: 33,603 votes "Never trump": 5,981 votes

*** connie j. chump only beat Joe Biden by 267,098 votes in Idaho during the 2020 election *** *** connie j. chump's 2020 Election turnout was 4.9310 times the primary vote *** *** 33,603 x 4.9310 = 165,696 Projected 2024 Election votes for connie j. chump in Idaho *** *** 5,981 x 4.9310 = 29,492 Potential "Never trump" votes in Idaho *** *** If President Joe Biden maintained the same voter turnout as he received in 2020 (287,021), connie j. chump would lose Idaho's 4 Electoral College Votes by 121,325 Real American Patriot votes *** *** If President Joe Biden received the added 29,492 "Never trump" votes, connie j. chump would lose Idaho's 4 Electoral College Votes by 150,817 Real American Patriot votes ***

2024 Republican Primary: Missouri: Republican Primary Voters 2016: 939,270; chump Votes 2020 Republican Primary: 301,953; chump 2020 Election: 1,718,736

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump: No actual voting, just awarding of delegates "Never trump": No actual voting, just awarding of delegates

*** connie j. chump only beat Joe Biden by 465,722 votes in Missouri during the 2020 election *** *** connie j. chump's 2020 Election turnout was 5.6920 times the primary vote *** *** N/A x 5.6920 = N/A Projected 2024 Election votes for connie j. chump in Missouri *** *** N/A x 5.6920 = N/A Potential "Never trump" votes in Missouri *** *** No voter/voting data to project who could win Missouri's 10 Electoral College Votes ***

2024 Republican Primary: Washington, D.C.: Republican Primary Voters 2016: 2,839; chump Votes 2020 Republican Primary: 1,559; chump 2020 Election: 18,586

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump: 676 votes "Never trump": 1,354 votes

*** Joe Biden beat connie j. chump by 298,737 votes in Washington, D.C. during the 2020 election *** *** connie j. chump's 2020 Election turnout was 11.9217 times the primary vote *** *** 676 x 11.9217 = 8,059 Projected 2024 Election votes for connie j. chump in Washington, D.C. *** *** 1,354 x 11.9217 = 16,142 Potential "Never trump" votes in Washington, D.C. *** *** If President Joe Biden maintained the same voter turnout as he received in 2020 (317,323), connie j. chump would lose Washington, D.C.'s 3 Electoral College Votes by 309,264 Real American Patriot votes *** *** If President Joe Biden received the added "Never trump" votes, connie j. chump would lose Washington, D.C.'s 3 Electoral College Votes by 325,406 Real American Patriot votes ***

2024 Republican Primary: North Dakota: Republican Primary Voters 2016: N/A; chump Votes 2020 Republican Primary: N/A; chump 2020 Election: 235,751

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump: 1632 votes "Never trump": 301 votes

*** connie j. chump only beat Joe Biden by 120,709 votes in North Dakota during the 2020 election *** *** connie j. chump's 2020 Election turnout was N/A times the primary vote *** *** N/A x N/A = N/A Projected 2024 Election votes for connie j. chump in North Dakota *** *** N/A x N/A = N/A Potential "Never trump" votes in North Dakota *** *** No voter/voting data to project who could win North Dakota's 3 Electoral College Votes ***

2024 Republican Primary: Alabama: Republican Primary Voters 2016: 860,652; chump Votes 2020 Republican Primary: 695,470; chump 2020 Election: 1,441,170

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump: 497,739 votes "Never trump": 100,296 votes

*** connie j. chump only beat Joe Biden by 591,546 votes in Alabama during the 2020 election *** *** connie j. chump's 2020 Election turnout was 2.0722 times the primary vote *** *** 497,739 x 2.0722 = 1,031,414 Projected 2024 Election votes for connie j. chump in Alabama *** *** 100,296 x 2.0722 = 207,833 Potential "Never trump" votes in Alabama *** *** If President Joe Biden maintained the same voter turnout as he received in 2020 (849,624), connie j. chump could win Alabama's 9 Electoral College Votes by 181,790 anti-American, anti-women MAGA Nazi cult votes *** *** If President Joe Biden received the added 207,833 "Never trump" votes, connie j. chump would lose Alabama's 9 Electoral College Votes by 26,043 Real American Patriot votes ***

2024 Republican Primary: Alaska: Republican Primary Voters 2016: 23,010; chump votes 2016 Election: 163,387; chump Votes 2020 Republican Primary: N/A; chump 2020 Election: 189,951

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump: 9,243 votes "Never trump": 1,311 votes

*** connie j. chump only beat Joe Biden by 36,173 votes in Alaska during the 2020 election *** *** connie j. chump's 2016 Election turnout was 7.1007 times the primary vote (no 2020 primary data for calculations) *** 9,243 x 7.1007 = 65,631 Projected 2024 Election votes for connie j. chump in Alaska *** *** 1,311 x 7.1007 = 9,309 Potential "Never trump" votes in Alaska *** *** If President Joe Biden maintained the same voter turnout as he received in 2020 (153,778), connie j. chump would lose Alaska's 3 Electoral College Votes by 88,147 Real American Patriot votes *** *** If President Joe Biden received the added 9,309 "Never trump" votes, connie j. chump would lose Alaska's 3 Electoral College Votes by 97,456 Real American Patriot votes ***

2024 Republican Primary: Arkansas: Republican Primary Voters 2016: 410,920; chump Votes 2020 Republican Primary: 238,980; chump 2020 Election: 760,647

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump: 204,664 votes "Never trump": 61,510 votes

*** connie j. chump only beat Joe Biden by 336,715 votes in Arkansas during the 2020 election *** *** connie j. chump's 2020 Election turnout was 3.1829 times the primary vote *** *** 204,664 x 3.1829 = 651,425 Projected 2024 Election votes for connie j. chump in Arkansas *** *** 61,510 x 3.1829 = 195,780 Potential "Never trump" votes in Arkansas *** *** If President Joe Biden maintained the same voter turnout as he received in 2020 (423,932), connie j. chump could win Arkansas' 6 Electoral College Votes by 227,493 anti-American, anti-women MAGA Nazi cult votes *** *** If President Joe Biden received the added 195,780 "Never trump" votes, connie j. chump could win Arkansas' 6 Electoral College Votes by only 31,713 anti-American, anti-women MAGA Nazi cult votes ***

2024 Republican Primary: California: Republican Primary Voters 2016: 2,227,306; chump Votes 2020 Republican Primary: 2,279,120; chump 2020 Election: 6,006,518

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump: 1,761,834 votes "Never trump": 465,522 votes

*** Joe Biden beat connie j. chump by 5,104,121 votes in California during the 2020 election *** *** connie j. chump's 2020 Election turnout was 2.6354 times the primary vote *** *** 1,761,834 x 2.6354 = 4,643,137 Projected 2024 Election votes for connie j. chump in California *** *** 465,522 x 2.6354 = 1,226,837 Potential "Never trump" votes in California *** *** If President Joe Biden maintained the same voter turnout as he received in 2020 (11,110,639), connie j. chump would lose California's 54 Electoral College Votes by 6,467,502 Real American Patriot votes *** *** If President Joe Biden received the added 1,226,837 "Never trump" votes, connie j. chump would lose California's 54 Electoral College Votes by 7,694,339 Real American Patriot votes ***

2024 Republican Primary: Colorado: Republican Primary Voters 2016: N/A; chump Votes 2020 Republican Primary: 628,876; chump 2020 Election: 1,364,607

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump: 549,468 votes "Never trump": 317,617 votes

*** Joe Biden beat connie j. chump by 439,745 votes in Colorado during the 2020 election *** *** connie j. chump's 2020 Election turnout was 2.1699 times the primary vote *** *** 549,468 x 2.1699 = 1,192,290 Projected 2024 Election votes for connie j. chump in Colorado *** *** 317,617 x 2.1699 = 689,197 Potential "Never trump" votes in Colorado *** *** If President Joe Biden maintained the same voter turnout as he received in 2020 (1,804,352), connie j. chump would lose Colorado's 10 Electoral College Votes by 612,062 Real American Patriot votes *** *** If President Joe Biden received the added 689,197 "Never trump" votes, connie j. chump would lose Colorado's 10 Electoral College Votes by 1,301,259 Real American Patriot votes ***

2024 Republican Primary: Maine: Republican Primary Voters 2016: 18,627; chump Votes 2020 Republican Primary: 95,360; chump 2020 Election: 360,737

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump: 78,493 votes "Never trump": 29,219 votes

*** Joe Biden beat connie j. chump by 74,335 votes in Maine during the 2020 election *** *** connie j. chump's 2020 Election turnout was 3.7829 times the primary vote *** *** 78,493 x 3.7829 = 296,931 Projected 2024 Election votes for connie j. chump in Maine *** *** 29,219 x 3.7829 = 110,532 Potential "Never trump" votes in Maine *** *** If President Joe Biden maintained the same voter turnout as he received in 2020 (435,072), connie j. chump would lose Maine's 4 Electoral College Votes by 138,141 Real American Patriot votes *** *** If President Joe Biden received the added 110,532 "Never trump" votes, connie j. chump would lose Maine's 4 Electoral College Votes by 248,673 Real American Patriot votes ***

2024 Republican Primary: Massachusetts: Republican Primary Voters 2016: 637,703; chump Votes 2020 Republican Primary: 239,115; chump 2020 Election: 1,167,202

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump: 340,312 votes "Never trump": 226,795 votes

*** Joe Biden beat connie j. chump by 1,215,000 votes in Massachusetts during the 2020 election *** *** connie j. chump's 2020 Election turnout was 4.8813 times the primary vote *** *** 340,312 x 4.8813 = 1,661,165 Projected 2024 Election votes for connie j. chump in Massachusetts *** *** 226,795 x 4.8813 = 1,107,054 Potential "Never trump" votes in Massachusetts *** *** If President Joe Biden maintained the same voter turnout as he received in 2020 (2,382,202), connie j. chump would lose Massachusetts' 11 Electoral College Votes by 721,037 Real American Patriot votes *** *** If President Joe Biden received the added "Never trump" votes, connie j. chump would lose Massachusetts' 11 Electoral College Votes by 1,828,091 Real American Patriot votes ***

2024 Republican Primary: Minnesota: Republican Primary Voters 2016: 114,245; chump Votes 2020 Republican Primary: 137,275; chump 2020 Election: 1,484,065

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump: 232,873 votes "Never trump": 104,169 votes

*** Joe Biden beat connie j. chump by 233,012 votes in Minnesota during the 2020 election *** *** connie j. chump's 2020 Election turnout was 10.8109 times the primary vote *** *** 232,873 x 10.8109 = 2,517,567 Projected 2024 Election votes for connie j. chump in Minnesota *** *** 104,169 x 10.8109 = 1,126,160 Potential "Never trump" votes in Minnesota *** *** If President Joe Biden maintained the same voter turnout as he received in 2020 (1,717,077), connie j. chump could win Minnesota's 10 Electoral College Votes by 800,490 anti-American, anti-women MAGA Nazi cult votes *** *** If President Joe Biden received the added 1,126,160 "Never trump" votes, connie j. chump would lose Minnesota's 10 Electoral College Votes by 325,670 Real American Patriot votes ***

2024 Republican Primary: North Carolina: Republican Primary Voters 2016: 1,149,530; chump Votes 2020 Republican Primary: 750,600; chump 2020 Election: 2,758,775

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute connie j. chump: 790,750 votes "Never trump": 279,906 votes

*** connie j. chump only beat Joe Biden by 74,483 votes in North Carolina during the 2020 election *** *** connie j. chump's 2020 Election turnout was 3.6754 times the primary vote *** *** 790,750 x 3.6754 = 2,906,322 Projected 2024 Election votes for connie j. chump in North Carolina *** *** 279,906 x 3.6754 = 1,028,766 Potential "Never trump" votes in North Carolina *** *** If President Joe Biden maintained the same voter turnout as he received in 2020 (2,684,292), connie j. chump would lose North Carolina's 16 Electoral College Votes by 222,030 anti-American, anti-women MAGA Nazi cult votes *** *** If President Joe Biden received the added 1,028,766 "Never trump" votes, connie j. chump would lose North Carolina's 16 Electoral College Votes by 806,736 Real American Patriot votes ***

2024 Republican Primary: Oklahoma: Republican Primary Voters 2016: 459,922; chump Votes 2020 Republican Primary: 273,738; chump 2020 Election: 1,020,280

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump: 254,688 votes "Never trump": 56,561 votes

*** connie j. chump only beat Joe Biden by 516,390 votes in Oklahoma during the 2020 election *** *** connie j. chump's 2020 Election turnout was times the primary vote *** *** 254,688 x 3.7272 = 949,273 Projected 2024 Election votes for connie j. chump in Oklahoma *** *** 56,561 x 3.7272 = 210,814 Potential "Never trump" votes in Oklahoma *** *** If President Joe Biden maintained the same voter turnout as he received in 2020 (503,890), connie j. chump could win Oklahoma's 7 Electoral College Votes by 445,383 anti-American, anti-women MAGA Nazi cult votes *** *** If President Joe Biden received the added 210,814 "Never trump" votes, connie j. chump could win Oklahoma's 7 Electoral College Votes by 234,569 anti-American, anti-women MAGA Nazi cult votes ***

2024 Republican Primary: Tennessee: Republican Primary Voters 2016: 855,729; chump Votes 2020 Republican Primary: 384,266; chump 2020 Election: 1,852,475

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump: 447,219 votes "Never trump": 130,999 votes

*** connie j. chump only beat Joe Biden by 708,764 votes in Tennessee during the 2020 election *** *** connie j. chump's 2020 Election turnout was 4.8208 times the primary vote *** *** 447,219 x 4.8208 = 2,155,953 Projected 2024 Election votes for connie j. chump in Tennessee *** *** 130,999 x 4.8208 = 631,520 Potential "Never trump" votes in Tennessee *** *** If President Joe Biden maintained the same voter turnout as he received in 2020 (1,143,711), connie j. chump could win Tennessee's 11 Electoral College Votes by 1,012,242 anti-American, anti-women MAGA Nazi cult votes *** *** If President Joe Biden received the added 631,520 "Never trump" votes, connie j. chump could win Tennessee's 11 Electoral College Votes by 380,722 anti-American, anti-women MAGA Nazi cult votes ***

2024 Republican Primary: Texas: Republican Primary Voters 2016: 2,836,488; chump Votes 2020 Republican Primary: 1,898,664; chump 2020 Election: 5,890,347

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump: 1,805,040 votes "Never trump": 508,878 votes

*** connie j. chump only beat Joe Biden by 631,221 votes in Texas during the 2020 election *** *** connie j. chump's 2020 Election turnout was 3.1024 times the primary vote *** *** 1,805,040 x 3.1024 = 5,599,956 Projected 2024 Election votes for connie j. chump in Texas *** *** 508,878 x 3.1024 = 1,578,743 Potential "Never trump" votes in Texas *** *** If President Joe Biden maintained the same voter turnout as he received in 2020 (5,259,126), connie j. chump could win Texas' 40 Electoral College Votes by 340,830 anti-American, anti-women MAGA Nazi cult votes *** *** If President Joe Biden received the added 1,578,743 "Never trump" votes, connie j. chump would lose Texas' 40 Electoral College Votes by 1,237,913 Real American Patriot votes ***

2024 Republican Primary: Utah: Republican Primary Voters 2016: 191,330; chump Votes 2020 Republican Primary: 302,751; chump 2020 Election: 865,140

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump: 47,880 votes "Never trump": 37,062 votes

*** connie j. chump only beat Joe Biden by 304,858 votes in Utah during the 2020 election *** *** connie j. chump's 2020 Election turnout was 2.8576 times the primary vote *** *** 47,880 x 2.8576 = 136,822 Projected 2024 Election votes for connie j. chump in Utah *** *** 37,062 x 2.8576 = 105,908 Potential "Never trump" votes in Utah *** *** If President Joe Biden maintained the same voter turnout as he received in 2020 (560,282), connie j. chump would lose Utah's 6 Electoral College Votes by 423,460 Real American Patriot votes *** *** If President Joe Biden received the added 105,908 "Never trump" votes, connie j. chump would lose Utah's 6 Electoral College Votes by 529,368 Real American Patriot votes ***

2024 Republican Primary: Vermont: Republican Primary Voters 2016: 61,756; chump Votes 2020 Republican Primary: 33,984; chump 2020 Election: 112,704

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump: 33,162 votes "Never trump": 4,084 votes

*** Joe Biden beat connie j. chump by 130,116 votes in Vermont during the 2020 election *** *** connie j. chump's 2020 Election turnout was 3.3164 times the primary vote *** *** 33,162 x 3.3164 = 109,978 Projected 2024 Election votes for connie j. chump in Vermont *** *** 4,084 x 3.3164 = 13,544 Potential "Never trump" votes in Vermont *** *** If President Joe Biden maintained the same voter turnout as he received in 2020 (242,820), connie j. chump would lose Vermont's 3 Electoral College Votes by 132,842 Real American Patriot votes *** *** If President Joe Biden received the added 13,544 "Never trump" votes, connie j. chump would lose Vermont's 3 Electoral College Votes by 146,386 Real American Patriot votes ***

2024 Republican Primary: Virginia: Republican Primary Voters 2016: 1,025,452; chump votes 2016 Election: 1,769,443; chump Votes 2020 Republican Primary: N/A; chump 2020 Election: 1,962,430

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump: 439,735 votes "Never trump": 258,561 votes

*** Joe Biden beat connie j. chump by 451,138 votes in Virginia during the 2020 election *** *** connie j. chump's 2016 Election turnout was 1.7255 times the primary vote (no 2020 primary data for calculations) *** 439,735 x 1.7255 = 758,763 Projected 2024 Election votes for connie j. chump in Virginia *** *** 258,561 x 1.7255 = 446,147 Potential "Never trump" votes in Virginia *** *** If President Joe Biden maintained the same voter turnout as he received in 2020 (2,413,568), connie j. chump would lose Virginia's 13 Electoral College Votes by 1,654,805 Real American Patriot votes *** *** If President Joe Biden received the added 446,147 "Never trump" votes, connie j. chump would lose Virginia's 13 Electoral College Votes by 2,100,952 Real American Patriot votes ***

2024 Republican Primary: Georgia: Republican Primary Voters 2016: 1,295,964; chump Votes 2020 Republican Primary: 947,352; chump 2020 Election: 2,461,854

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump: 496,560 votes "Never trump": 91,062 votes

*** Joe Biden beat connie j. chump by 11,779 votes in Georgia during the 2020 election *** *** connie j. chump's 2020 Election turnout was 2.5986 times the primary vote *** *** 496,560 x 2.5986 = 1,290,360 Projected 2024 Election votes for connie j. chump in Georgia *** *** 91,062 x 2.5986 = 236,634 Potential "Never trump" votes in Georgia *** *** If President Joe Biden maintained the same voter turnout as he received in 2020 (2,473,633), connie j. chump would lose Georgia's 16 Electoral College Votes by 1,183,273 Real American Patriot votes *** *** If President Joe Biden received the added 236,634 "Never trump" votes, connie j. chump would lose Georgia's 16 Electoral College Votes by 1,419,907 Real American Patriot votes ***

2024 Republican Primary: Hawaii: Republican Primary Voters 2016: 15,708; chump votes 2016 Election: 128,847; chump Votes 2020 Republican Primary: N/A; chump 2020 Election: 196,864

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump: 4,348 votes "Never trump": 131 votes

*** Joe Biden beat connie j. chump by 169,266 votes in Hawaii during the 2020 election *** *** connie j. chump's 2016 Election turnout was 8.2026 times the primary vote (no 2020 primary data for calculations) *** 4,348 x 8.2026 = 35,664 Projected 2024 Election votes for connie j. chump in Hawaii *** *** 131 x 8.2026 = 1,075 Potential "Never trump" votes in Hawaii *** *** If President Joe Biden maintained the same voter turnout as he received in 2020 (366,130), connie j. chump would lose Hawaii's 4 Electoral College Votes by 330,466 Real American Patriot votes *** *** If President Joe Biden received the added 1,075 "Never trump" votes, connie j. chump would lose Hawaii's 4 Electoral College Votes by 331,541 Real American Patriot votes ***

2024 Republican Primary: Mississippi: Republican Primary Voters 2016: 416,270; chump Votes 2020 Republican Primary: 241,985; chump 2020 Election: 756,764

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump: 225,075 votes "Never trump": 19,022 votes

*** connie j. chump only beat Joe Biden by 217,366 votes in Mississippi during the 2020 election *** *** connie j. chump's 2020 Election turnout was 3.1273 times the primary vote *** *** 225,075 x 3.1273 = 703,877 Projected 2024 Election votes for connie j. chump in Mississippi *** *** 19,022 x 3.1273 = 59,488 Potential "Never trump" votes in Mississippi *** *** If President Joe Biden maintained the same voter turnout as he received in 2020 (539,398), connie j. chump could win Mississippi's 6 Electoral College Votes by 164,479 anti-American, anti-women MAGA Nazi cult votes *** *** If President Joe Biden received the added 59,488 "Never trump" votes, connie j. chump could win Mississippi's 6 Electoral College Votes by 104,991 anti-American, anti-women MAGA Nazi cult votes ***

2024 Republican Primary: Washington: Republican Primary Voters 2016: 602,998; chump Votes 2020 Republican Primary: 684,239; chump 2020 Election: 1,584,651

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump: 583,358 votes "Never trump": 182,437 votes

*** Joe Biden beat connie j. chump by 784,961 votes in Washington during the 2020 election *** *** connie j. chump's 2020 Election turnout was 2.3159 times the primary vote *** *** 583,358 x 2.3159 = 1,350,998 Projected 2024 Election votes for connie j. chump in Washington *** *** 182,437 x 2.3159 = 422,506 Potential "Never trump" votes in Washington *** *** If President Joe Biden maintained the same voter turnout as he received in 2020 (2,369,612), connie j. chump would lose Washington's 12 Electoral College Votes by 1,018,614 Real American Patriot votes *** *** If President Joe Biden received the added 422,506 "Never trump" votes, connie j. chump would lose Washington's 12 Electoral College Votes by 1,441,120 Real American Patriot votes ***

2024 Republican Primary: Arizona: Republican Primary Voters 2016: 624,039; chump votes 2016 Election: 1,252,401; chump Votes 2020 Republican Primary: N/A; chump 2020 Election: 1,661,686

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump: 489,578 votes "Never trump": 131,852 votes

*** Joe Biden beat connie j. chump by 10,457 votes in Arizona during the 2020 election *** *** connie j. chump's 2016 Election turnout was 2.007 times the primary vote (no 2020 primary data for calculations) *** *** 489,578 x 2.007 = 982,583 Projected 2024 Election votes for connie j. chump in Arizona *** *** 131,852 x 2.007 = 264,627 Potential "Never trump" votes in Arizona *** *** If President Joe Biden maintained the same voter turnout as he received in 2020 (1,672,143), connie j. chump would lose Arizona's 11 Electoral College Votes by 689,560 Real American Patriot votes *** *** If President Joe Biden received the added 264,627 "Never trump" votes, connie j. chump would lose Arizona's 11 Electoral College Votes by 954,187 Real American Patriot votes ***

2024 Republican Primary: Florida: Republican Primary Voters 2016: 1,079,870; chump Votes 2020 Republican Primary: 1,162,984; chump 2020 Election: 5,668,731

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump: 910,897 votes "Never trump": 211,061 votes

*** connie j. chump only beat Joe Biden by 371,686 votes in Florida during the 2020 election *** *** connie j. chump's 2020 Election turnout was 4.874 times the primary vote *** *** 910,897 x 4.874 = 4,439,712 Projected 2024 Election votes for connie j. chump in Florida *** *** 211,061 x 4.874 = 1,028,711 Potential "Never trump" votes in Florida *** *** If President Joe Biden maintained the same voter turnout as he received in 2020 (5,297,045), connie j. chump would lose Florida's 30 Electoral College Votes by 857,333 Real American Patriot votes *** *** If President Joe Biden received the added 1,028,711 "Never trump" votes, connie j. chump would lose Florida's 30 Electoral College Votes by 1,886,044 Real American Patriot votes ***

2024 Republican Primary: Illinois: Republican Primary Voters 2016: 1,449,748; chump Votes 2020 Republican Primary: 520,956; chump 2020 Election: 2,446,891

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump: 475,055 votes "Never trump": 114,148 votes

*** Joe Biden beat connie j. chump by 1,025,024 votes in Illinois during the 2020 election *** *** connie j. chump's 2020 Election turnout was 4.6969 times the primary vote *** *** 475,055 x 4.6969 = 2,231,286 Projected 2024 Election votes for connie j. chump in Illinois *** *** 114,148 x 4.6969 = 536,142 Potential "Never trump" votes in Illinois *** *** If President Joe Biden maintained the same voter turnout as he received in 2020 (3,471,915), connie j. chump would lose Illinois' 19 Electoral College Votes by 1,240,629 Real American Patriot votes *** *** If President Joe Biden received the added 536,142 "Never trump" votes, connie j. chump would lose Illinois' 19 Electoral College Votes by 1,776,771 Real American Patriot votes ***

2024 Republican Primary: Kansas: Republican Primary Voters 2016: 78,978; chump votes 2016 Election: 671,018; chump Votes 2020 Republican Primary: N/A; chump 2020 Election: 771,406

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump: 71,077 votes "Never trump": 23,048 votes

*** connie j. chump only beat Joe Biden by 201,083 votes in Kansas during the 2020 election *** *** connie j. chump's 2016 Election turnout was 8.496 times the primary vote (no 2020 primary data for calculations) *** *** 71,077 x 8.496 = 603,870 Projected 2024 Election votes for connie j. chump in Kansas *** *** 23,048 x 8.496 = 195,816 Potential "Never trump" votes in Kansas *** *** If President Joe Biden maintained the same voter turnout as he received in 2020 (570,323), connie j. chump could win Kansas' 6 Electoral College Votes by 33,547 anti-American, anti-women MAGA Nazi cult votes *** *** If President Joe Biden received the added 195,816 "Never trump" votes, connie j. chump could lose Kansas' 6 Electoral College Votes by 162,269 Real American Patriot votes ***

2024 Republican Primary: Ohio: Republican Primary Voters 2016: 1,988,960; chump votes 2016 Election: 2,841,005; chump Votes 2020 Republican Primary: 713,546; chump 2020 Election: 3,154,834

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump: 889,001 votes "Never trump": 233,569 votes

*** connie j. chump only beat Joe Biden by 475,669 votes in Ohio during the 2020 election *** *** connie j. chump's 2020 Election turnout was 4.421 times the primary vote *** *** 889,001 x 4.421 = 3,930,273 Projected 2024 Election votes for connie j. chump in *** *** 233,569 x 4.421 = 1,032,609 Potential "Never trump" votes in Ohio *** *** If President Joe Biden maintained the same voter turnout as he received in 2020 (2,679,165), connie j. chump could win Ohio's 17 Electoral College Votes by 1,251,108 anti-American, anti-women MAGA Nazi cult votes *** *** If President Joe Biden received the added 1,032,609 "Never trump" votes, connie j. chump could still win Ohio's 17 Electoral College Votes by 218,499 anti-American, anti-women MAGA Nazi cult votes ***

2020 Republican Presidential Primary Mobilized Voter Pool: 16,130,403 2020 Total Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute connie. j. chump Votes From The Above-Listed Republican Presidential Primary States: 54,436,098 (73.33% of the total 2020 Election chump Vote) Average 2020 Republican Presidential Primary to 2020 Presidential Election Day Mobilized Voter Turnout: 437.475%

Total 2024 Republican Primary Votes for Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump Thus Far (Up to and including March 19th, 2024): 13,296,815 x 4.37475 = 58,170,241 Projected 2024 Election connie j. chump Votes.

Total 2024 Republican Primary "Never trump" Votes Thus Far (Up to and including March 19th, 2024): 4,507,706 x 4.37475 = 19,720,087 Projected 2024 Election Republican "Never trump" Votes.

2020 Presidential Election: President Joe Biden: 81,283,501 Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump: 74,223,975 (Roughly 1.36369 x 54,436,098)

2024 Presidential Election: Projected Results Based Upon 2024 Republican Primary Results Up To and Including March 19th, 2024:

President Joe Biden: 101,003,588 (Landslide Election Victory by 21,677,413 Real American Patriot Votes; THREE TIMES the 7,000,000 Real American Patriot Votes from the 2020 Election)

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump: 79,326,175 (Roughly 1.36369 x 58,170,241)

The above projection is a "best case scenario" for the Crying Cognitively Crippled Chubb(y) chump based solely upon the 2024 Republican Primary and doesn't reflect the actual situation: the current polling of 31%-40% of Republican and 66% of Independent voters who will REFUSE TO VOTE for the chump and FURTHER REDUCE that 58 million unrealistic and overly-generous PROJECTION by the TENS OF MILLIONS due to the chump's Bizarre "Rally" BS and ALL of his civil and CRIMINAL trials and verdicts. Below are the actual facts and figures of where President Joe Biden and connie j. chump stand based upon actual Republican vote counts and projections based upon 2016 and 2020 election data:

As of March 19th, 2024: President Joe Biden Current Electoral College Votes (without ANY "Never trump" votes): 218

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump Current Electoral College Votes (without ANY "Never trump" votes counting against him): 160

President Joe Biden Current Electoral College Votes (with 100% "Never trump" votes): 318

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump Current Electoral College Votes (with 100% "Never trump" votes counting against him): 60

If the remainder of the Electoral College votes were split along the same lines as the 2020 election: President Joe Biden's Remaining Electoral College Votes: 108

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump's Remaining Electoral College Votes: 46

As of March 19th, 2024: President Joe Biden Current Electoral College Votes (without ANY "Never trump" votes): 218+108=326

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump Current Electoral College Votes (without ANY "Never trump" votes counting against him): 160+46=206

President Joe Biden Current Electoral College Votes (with 100% "Never trump" votes): 318+108=426

Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump Current Electoral College Votes (with 100% "Never trump" votes counting against him): 60+46=106

In addition to all of those harsh realities, there's also the inescapable, undeniable, and irrefutable fact that ANY STATE in the United States of America can simply, easily, and LEGALLY ignore and defy the unconstitutional, illegal, and criminal MAGA insurrectionist SCOTUS "ruling/judgment" that altered and annulled the United States Constitution to allow Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump to appear on the 2024 general election ballot at all; and there's ABSOLUTELY NOTHING that the unconstitutional, illegal, and criminal MAGA insurrectionist SCOTUS, the U.S. Congress, the U.S. Department of Justice, President Joe Biden, or ANY SWORN officer, agent, or employee of ANY KIND at ANY LEVEL in ANY state, city, county, or town/township in the United States of America can legally do to force ANY election official ANYWHERE in the United States of America to COUNT or CERTIFY EVEN ONE VOTE for Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump.

All of Rabid Deranged Low-life and Dishonest Destitute 2020 Loser connie j. chump's delay tactics in all of his civil and CRIMINAL trials mean ABSOLUTELY NOTHING; because based on the United States Constitution, SCOTUS precedents, federal and state laws and precedents, and the actual 2024 Republican Primary VOTING DATA thus far, it's already "PARTY OVER, OOPS, OUTTA TIME" for the Addled-brained Asinine Air Accordian-playing Asswipe of USED-TO-BE-MINE marred-a-LAMEO, the Simpering Senile Slovenly STINKY Snake of FORMERLY chump tower, that Liddle Cognitively Crippled Crybaby Cuck, connie j. chump.

House of Pain - Jump Around

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May 5, 1992 (126th day) Duration: 3:37 (217 seconds) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3Z-kL1Ep_A r3Z-kL1Ep_A (3, 1) rZ-kLEp_A aeklprz 1+5+10+20+60+80+500=676. 676+3+1=680. 680+217=897. 897+126=1023.

Strong's Concordance #1023 beth hammerchaq: Beth-ham-Merchak; house of great distance; place that was/is very distant/far away Original Word: בֵּית המֶּרְחָק

Arnold Schwarzenegger: Why I don't think traitor trump will win a second presidential election

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Published: June 16, 2023 (167th day) Duration: 10:40 (640 seconds) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxIZtOfkneo oxIZtOfkneo efiknoootxz 5+6+9+10+40+50+50+50+100+300+500=1120. 1120+640=1760. 1760+167=1927.

Strong's Concordance #1927 hadarah: Feminine of hadar; decoration -- beauty, honor. Original Word: הֲדָרָה

Sleeping Beauty - "Now Sword of Truth, Fly Swift and Sure; That Evil Die and Good Endure!"

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January 29, 1959 (29th day) Duration: 1:49 (109 seconds) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTDb4G-v9zw DTDb4G-v9zw (4, 9) DTDbGvzw bddgtvwz 2+4+4+7+100+700+900+500=2217. 2217+4+9=2230. 2230+109=2339. 2339+29=2368.

Strong's Concordance #2368 chotham: a seal, signet ring Original Word: חוֹתָם

TANAKH (Jewish Publication Society, Hebrew-English) Pages 1796, 1797, and 1798: Esther 8:1 That very day King Ahasuerus gave the property of Haman, the enemy of the Jews, to Queen Esther. Mordecai presented himself to the king, for Esther had revealed how he was related to her. Esther 8:2 The king slipped off his ring, which he had taken back from Haman, and gave it to Mordecai; and Esther put Mordecai in charge of Haman's property. Esther 8:3 Esther spoke to the king again, falling at his feet and weeping, and beseeching him ot avert the evil plotted by Haman the Agagite against the Jews. Esther 8:4 The king extended the golden scepter to Esther, and Esther arose and stood before the king. Esther 8:5 "If it please Your Majesty," she said, "and if I have won your favor and the proposal seems right to Your Majesty, and if I am pleasing to you--let dispatches be written countermanding those which were written by Haman son of Hammedatha the Agagite, embodying his plot to annihilate the Jews throughout the king's provinces. Esther 8:6 For how can I bear to see the disaster wich will befall my people! And how can I bear to see the destruction of my kindred!" Esther 8:7 Then King Ahasuerus said to Queen Esther and Mordecai the Jew, "I have given Haman's property to Esther, and he has been impaled on the stake for scheming against the Jews. Esther 8:8 And you may further write with regard to the Jews as you see fit. [Write it] in the king's name and seal it with the king's signet, for an edict that has been written in the king's name and sealed with the king's signet may not be revoked." Esther 8:9 So the king's scribes were summoned at that time, on the twenty-third day of the third month, that is, the month of Sivan; and letters were written, at Mordecai's dictation, to the Jews and to the satraps, the governors and the officials of the one hundred and twenty-seven provinces from India to Ethiopia: to every province in its own script and to every people in its own language, and to the Jews in their own script and language. Esther 8:10 He had them written in the name of King Ahasuerus and sealed with the king's signet. Letters were dispatched by mounted couriers, riding steeds used in the king's service, bred of the royal stud, Esther 8:11 to this effect: The king has permitted the Jews of every city to assemble and fight for their lives; if any people or province attacks them, they may destroy, massacre, and exterminate its armed force together with women and hcildren, and plunder their possessions-- Esther 8:12 on a single day in all the provinces of King Ahasuerus, namely, on the thirteenth day of the twelfth month, that is, the month of Adar. Esther 8:13 The text of the document was to be issued as a law in every single province: it was to be publicly displayed to all the peoples, so that the Jews should be ready for that day to avenge themselves on their enemies.

TANAKH (Jewish Publication Society, Hebrew-English): Page 1810: Daniel 3:12 There are certain Jews whom you appointed to administer the province of Babylon, Shadrach, Meshach, and Abed-nego; those men pay no heed to you, O king: they do not serve your god or worship the statue of gold that you have set up." Daniel 3:13 The Nebuchadnezzar, in raging fury, ordered Shadrach, Mesach, and Abed-nego to be brought; so those men were brought before the king. Daniel 3:14 Nebuchadnezzar spoke to them and said, "is it true, Shadrach, Mesach, and Abed-nego, that you do not serve my god or worship the statue of gold that I have set up? Daniel 3:15 Now if you are ready to fall down and worship the statue that I have made when you hear the sound of the horn, pipe, zither, lyre, psaltery, and bagpipe, and all other types of instruments, [well and good]; but if you will not worship, you shall at once be thrown into a burning fiery furnace, and what god is there that can save you from my power?" Daniel 3:16 Shadrach, Mesach, and Abed-nego said in reply to the king, "O Nebuchadnezzar, we have no need to answer you in this matter, Daniel 3:17 for if so it must be, our God whom we serve is able to save us from the burning fiery furnace, and He will save us from your power, O king. Daniel 3:18 But even if He does not, be it known to you, O king, that we will not serve your god or worship the statue of gold that you have set up."

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leifs-little-luxury-hell · 1 month

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out of curiosity, when trump becomes president because people refused to vote, what do you think is going to happen? like, how do you think an openly fascist president is going to affect the countrys policies?

gee, I wonder if an openly fascist president whos backers literally outlined a plan on how theyre going to instate fascism is going to run the country

(Also I know this is most likely in reference to a recent comment/rb I made, so uh, gonna clear up a couple of things)

Never said you shouldn't vote. Sorry if that was what my initial rb came off as. You obviously should, its like, the least you can do to prevent this country from going to shit. My initial point was that voting blue isnt going to solve the underlying problems of this country + the current genocide happening in Palestine/The Gaza Strip. No matter what you vote for, youre voting for a fascist. Ones going to lead the country into the shitter now (repubs), while the other ones are either apart of parties that are too unpopular to win, or are just fascism lite (democrats).

Are the democrats a better option than the republicans? Yea, no shit, but just voting blue is not going to address any of the underlying problems we as a society are facing. Yea, they claim that theyre going to fix stuff, but their track record over the past 20+ years is that, at best, they introduce things too little too late, and at worse, actively aid fascism or enact policies that republicans pushed for. Most of the time, they just sit on their laurels while making false promises. Again, they are BY FAR the better option, but a piece of shit will always be better than an entire sewage plant.

Im probably making a series of incoherent rants or whatever, but eh. Im a politically charged nutjob with a tiny little soapbox, so I might as well wear down this soapbox while I have it.

#a leif classic

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scottguy · 7 months

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Nothing says, "Healthy democracy" like a US senator afraid of people in his own party. (Note: sarcasm)

This is the America Trump and his many acolytes have brought us all to deal with.

Can't win your argument with reason and logic because the position, like not wearing masks during a deadly pandemic, is indefensible?

Then, just make death threats!!

#republicans are domestic terrorists #republicans are fascists #republicans are nazis #Republicans are bad for America.

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mariacallous · 1 year

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Ive been subjecting myself to - retch - grimace - the bulwark podcasts after the midterms just to see how the ""moderate"" repubs are responding and uhhhhhhh they truly believe that youngkin has the most chance of winning a general election. Interestingly they also speculate that Whitmer wld be the hardest dem to beat.

Re: Youngkin - I mean, maybe? In a pre-2008 or 2012 presidential election when the Republicans cared about trying to have more appeal, with a less radicalized and Trumpified base. I think those days are gone, and Youngkin also kinda fell flat in these midterms with the candidates he stumped for. Plus I think the problem is that there's going to be too many like Youngkin (or DeSantis or Kasich etc.) who would probably have broader appeal but would be fighting for the same voters in the GOP and wouldn't get much support from the Trump people. And he's still just at the beginning of his gubernatorial career - it'll be interesting to see how he's regarded when we're closer to 2024 and deeper into his term.

Re: Whitmer - she has massive crossover appeal with a lot of different and important voter groups, she's had a really successful term as Governor and solidly won re-election and is good about being able to speak to people about issues without dumbing it down or condescending to them. She's from an important battleground state and in many ways has a lot of the same qualities and pluses that Biden has and had, with less of his negatives (although some people will never forgive Whitmer for being a white woman).

I think 2024 is going to be another Biden v. Trump matchup tbh but I think she would crush in 2028. Assuming she isn't a cabinet nominee or some other administration position before then.

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hamliet · 3 years

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do you think the repub party will reject trump after this or will we see a trump 2024 trump campaign?

No idea about 2024. Maybe if he’s not in jail, but there’s a pretty decent chance he’ll be criminally indicted. I know we’re seeing people insist that it’s for the good of the country to pardon, and while I do believe in loving ones enemies, I also don’t believe pardoning criminal activities that have actively hurt many in irreparable ways is actually love, nor will it bring any kind of peace. I hope he’s indicted, if indeed he did break the law; if not obviously I don’t want him to be.

I think Rs will do whatever they feel they should to win, but at the same time, there’s no going back from what they’ve done the past 4 years. Tr*mp was good for one thing, and that was exposing exactly what they stood for all along.

My opinion overall is the US is a broken country and it’s not easily fixed. A house divided cannot stand, and I don’t think these deep ideological differences are likely to be fixed with a new president. I hope, of course, and I pray. But I’m deeply uncertain of the country’s future and trying to be realistic. It’s a pattern all over the world right now: fascism and nationalism rising. It’s not unique to the US.

If anything, that’s what the past 4 years have also shown Americans who are wise enough to open their eyes and see it. Our Constitution isn’t exceptional. It won’t protect us from fascism. Our people aren’t exceptional. Many will happily vote for a man who would like to be a dictator and who doesn’t even have any ideals. It could be humbling in a helpful way if people would realize this: it really is up to us.

Again, as I said above, we’ve seen this pattern in history--nationalism on the rise globally--and it doesn’t usually end well. But also? Fascists don’t usually get voted out while in power. There’s hope there.

#ask hamliet #politics #american elections #i don't mind talking politics!#so this is not to anon but to anyone else who might want to respond:#i don't want to fight about politics on here #i will block you if you defend drumpf here #i cannot abide that on this blog #Anonymous

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hug-your-face · 3 years

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Blue Senate, Pls?

my friends: o hey ur back early me: election’s not over my friends: what? me: *writing this post* election’s not over

There’s still 2 Senate seats in Georgia left to win in a January 5 runoff election. Winning one of them will FLIP! THE! SENNNAAAAATE!

“But,” you say, “I am Le Tired of ze electionnn, why does zis mattere?”

The GA runoff election law is basically a nerf against Black political influence in that state

538 projects* that one of the Dem candidates is slightly favored to win the runoff. In other words, the Senate is ours to lose.

Repubs are terrified of losing GA as the “last line of defense against the radical left” 🙄

The Repubs are down, and they’re gonna spend like crazy to buy retention of these Senate seats. Here’s how you can help put the boot in while they’re down:

IF YOU LIVE IN GEORGIA:

To vote in the runoff you must be registered by December 7, 2020

Check your voter status!! Check it again! (You just know they’re gonna be “cleaning” the lists...)

The runoff is on Jan 5, 2021. Make a plan.

You may be able to vote early*; see the GA.gov runoff voting info page and contact your county registrar’s office

WHETHER YOU LIVE IN GEORGIA OR NOT:

Donate to Stacey Abrams’ Fair Fight PAC for fair elections in Georgia

Follow the @ReverendWarnock and Jon @Ossoff on Twitter

Toss 5$ to The Rev

Make calls to help Jon

Chip in 5$ to Jon’s campaign

And finally, just as you did for the national election, share this info w your friends and help them understand the impact:

If we flip the Senate, that kicks Mitch The Purple Turtle Fucker McConnell out of his role as Sen. Majority Leader!

That would be so amazing, right??

A Biden/Harris administration with a McConnell-run, GOP-owned Senate means more Senate blocking of everything we want. Welfare for All? Piss off. Green New Deal? Nice try! Defunding the Police? *sneering laughter* Election Reform? *uncontrollable laughter*

Anything radical, just FORGET it. Without a blue Senate, we’re just gonna see more politicking and more bad deals, and more chance for the right to clap back hard in 2024. It means whenever a great measure that we want fails, most of America will shrug and go “well what can Biden do with a Senate like that?”

A Biden/Harris admin with a blue Senate means they will have no excuses, and most of America will behind you when you hold them to task!

We only won the first move in this game against the fascists. We got in the first punch, a nice straight jab to Trump’s orange face. Time for the fukkin’ LEFT HOOK!

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squirrelwrangler · 4 years

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Feanor’s Most Popular Line: We’re Going To Male the Noldor Great Again.

sigh... Back in 2015, during the primaries, when I was watching and waiting for the point where the way-too-crowded Republican field would winnow down and winnow out Trump, because of course they would, why aren’t they (*cries*) and keeping an eye on the Democratic field hoping it’d be Warren or Sanders or anyone but Clinton because I knew how much she was hated -both of my parents are retired military hardcore republicans and while I’m not one anymore I was raised in that/Rush was playing on the radio for every long roadtrip and one learns how to start tuning that crap out out of necessity, I cannot underscore how much my mother hated interacting with the Clinton administration when she worked at the USN academy and the amount of eyerolling I had to suppress as my own views shifted from center-right to center-left and no I’m not going to talk personal political beliefs at the moment because they haven’t finished settling for one (except oh please, Hegar beat Cornyn too, I beg y’all).

So, Repub primaries back when the other Rs would trash-talk Trump, and Jindal of LA calls Trump out on his paranoia and egomania and all, I forget the exact quote, but I do remember texting @yavieriel in Skype laughing because the wording of the statement was almost exactly how I described Fëanor.

His controlling paranoia, his overwhelming ego. That his speech at Tirion even back in 2004 scared the heebie-jeebies out of me because I saw the parallels to how fascist strongmen worked - the minority fringe group that had been exiled for an illegal act of violence returning during a moment of crisis to stoke the already volatile feelings of panic, using rhetoric and speeches (and torches in a dark night) to whip up the crowd into a ‘wine-drunk’ mob. Seizes control of the mob by weaponized grievance and giving them scapegoats - not only blaming the legitimate government as weak and ineffectual but then a scapegoat and actual xenophobia by creating fear of the Other, in this case the mortals men that will replace them. Holy fuck if that isn’t the perfect fascist play of ‘here’s this “Other” that is inferior to us and yet will insidiously replace us and our land and oust us’. Sorry, I’m still puking years later. Fëanor who hinges his authority on his status as the first-born of the king instead of the majority of the Noldor wanting him (he’s not winning popular votes) and this ubermench persona (and like other “strongmen” his actual leadership decisions only are a series of moves that cripple his end goals, betray allies, sow more discord, more acts of horrific violence, he mistrusts even his innermost circle, and then he dies overwhelmed and swiftly and rather pathetically compared to his rival. His political pitch is a ‘return to a “purer” past’ be it in language or in general. Go back to Cuiviénen is no different than the other fascist-like rhetoric of idealized false past. It is exactly as you said, “Make the Noldor Great Again”. He looks down upon the Teleri as a inferior culture. He hoards resources and makes his regain the Silmarils pitch statement about hoarding that light that is supposed to be freely shared the exclusive property of just the Noldor and that the Noldor alone will be greater than anyone, even the Ainur (and that Noldor means pure Noldor and Noldor loyal to him). I really don’t see how people can look at the actual character in the Silmarillion, read his quotes, and not come away with the strong sense that if not outright, this is Fëanor’s vibe. I saw it the very first time that I read the book, and it has only been re-enforced every time I ere-read not just it but read counterarguments from his sympathetic fans- the ones that forced me to reexamine him and thus come away with an even stronger negative view.

Heck, Fëanor’s stockpiling of illegal dangerous lethal weapons, his mistrust of the government and moving away from the city even before exile, plus that his invention of the Silmarils was motivated out of a vague uneasy worry that something might happen to the Treelight and thus preserve it -plus the controlling nature is personal and familial relations enough so that his wife leaves him and is upset that she can’t take at least some of the children with her to escape that toxic controlling environment- Fëanor is TEXTBOOK right-wing doomsday prepper, and the Valar were trying to avoid Waco or Ruby Ridge.

#replies #engage girdle #fëanor the village idiot #this is almost the long meta post I promised to write seven years ago #for my mutuals and followers this is nothing new from me #this is why I avoid the majority of the silm fandom on tumblr and other platforms #because we read different books for them to see fëanor and his sons in another light than this #and i won't waste my time on them and they shouldn't waste theirs with me #i tried and it was triggery years later dealing with the doublespeak and illogic #Anonymous

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