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#the only way to achieve peace in ukraine is to help ukraine win
tomorrowusa · 8 months
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A reality check on the war from Yale Prof. Timothy Snyder.
The bottom line...
"You can't stop the killing by giving up. The only way to stop the killing is to win the war. The only way to end the war is to win the war."
People who urge "compromise" like Elon Musk have probably not been paying attention to Eastern Europe for the past 300 years.
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warningsine · 29 days
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As Russian artillery rained down on the Ukrainian city of Kherson last year, one girl found a surprising way of processing the horror that was taking place. She passed the time in a bomb shelter playing the stark, many would say depressing, video game This War of Mine.
There is a critical burden for every Ukrainian this winter. For her, it is trying to make sense of a terrible conflict. For Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, it is getting the weapons and international support to fight Russia and keep strategic momentum on his country’s side. For his soldiers, it is trying to keep morale up and stay warm in freezing temperatures. And for the almost 8 million Ukrainian refugees that the war has created, it is trying to rebuild lives in foreign countries.
A disproportionate number are doing so in Poland, which has registered more than 1.4 million of them for temporary protection, the largest number of any EU country, according to ReliefWeb.
The country’s particularly strong solidarity is replicated across Eastern Europe. Warsaw resident Konrad Adamczewski puts it down to proximity: “This was a war that broke out in a neighbouring country. You could immediately see people coming to Poland for shelter.”
The company he works for, 11 bit studios, made the bestselling This War of Mine. The unnamed Ukrainian girl in the basement got in contact at some point last year to thank them for the help the game gave her.
11 bit studios has been showing its solidarity since the beginning of the war in other ways, too. Within hours of Russia’s campaign, the company launched a fundraiser. For a week, all proceeds from sales of This War of Mine would be donated to the Ukrainian Red Cross. Some $850,000 was raised, far exceeding what the company had expected. “The impact was huge. We were very happy we could contribute, but it was also hugely sad that in 2022 the message of the game was once again so vivid,” Mr Adamczewski told me.
It was a remarkable achievement financially. But, as Mr Adamczewski went on to say, it is only when you look at the content of the game itself that you realise quite how apt the campaign was on deeper levels. “We developed this as a game about peace. Immediately we saw people commenting online that the scenes of innocent people suffering unfolding on the news looked like This War of Mine.”
The game is, after all, entirely about war, but barely about soldiers. Instead, civilians are the protagonists in an unnamed conflict, as they try to survive and not lose hope in the process. Winning, if it can even be called that, is not triumph in battle, but just to survive until the end of the siege.
The setting is loosely based of the siege of Sarajevo, one of the longest in modern history, in which non-combatants were often forced into otherwise immoral acts to survive, be it hoarding resources, theft or even violence. But if the game had been released in 2022, Mariupol, Bakhmut or Kherson could well have been the inspiration.
Now the game is helping children outside Ukraine as well. At the end of 2022, it was officially included in Poland’s curriculum. Teacher Ilona Starosta says she uses it in her classes because of its many perspectives. “Students wonder what it means to win a game like this. Does winning mean surviving? Does it make sense to survive at all costs?”
These questions are not delivered in abstract debates. Players might be in the shoes of Adam, who struggles to get medicine for his ill child as he tries to untangle his own mind from severe shell shock. Or they might be journalist Malik, who has to balance the need to broadcast life-saving information with not angering a censorious military.
For Mr Adamczewski, the potential for explaining these dilemmas makes gaming a uniquely powerful tool for learning: “When children study literature, there is often a question of what the author had in mind. But in games, you become the author.”
The depth of the game has caught global attention. In the UK, London’s Imperial War Museum features it as an installation in its War Games exhibition, which opened in September. Curators placed it next to artefacts that captives made during the Second World War to create a sense of normality during extreme hardship; they include a teapot, given to an English prisoner of war by a Polish comrade, and improvised cigarettes. In the US, the game is featured in New York’s Museum of Modern Art’s exhibition Video Games and Other Interactive Design, which also opened in September.
However much renewed attention the game is getting globally, it remains a success firmly rooted in Poland. Like many other places in Eastern Europe, the country has a remarkably creative independent gaming sector.
As a developer, Mr Adamczewski says that the arrival of personal computers in the 1980s was a radical opportunity to learn more about life outside the communist bloc. More simply, people also wanted to use them to play games. With no access to ones developed in the West, people started developing their own. This wider wave of tech curiosity and the chance to start afresh after the fall of the Soviet Union are reasons that Eastern Europe has much better internet connectivity than richer western European countries.
But more than just a leading economic asset, the region’s gaming sector is becoming a cultural one, too. In the case of This War of Mine, to remind people that war has a terrible, complex impact on civilians. It is far too soon to say if a video game will ever reach the renown of All Quiet on the Western Front or Dulce et Decorum Est, classics that will explain history's worst moments for generations. But if one ever does, it could well come from Eastern Europe.
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mariacallous · 2 months
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As Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine enters its third year, the West remains in need of a clearer strategy for achieving victory and stopping Russian President Vladimir Putin from overturning the rules-based international order. Western leaders’ hesitation and incrementalism in providing Ukraine with the military capabilities that it needs to defeat Russia are the main reasons for the disappointing results of last year’s Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Victory means securing Ukraine’s survival as a sovereign, democratic state that is fully integrated in the European Union and NATO, as well as bolstering its economic and military capacity to deter future Russian aggression. Given Putin’s denial of Ukraine’s right to exist, Russia must be defeated first and foremost on the battlefield.
Putin hasn’t scaled back his war aims despite the heavy Russian losses. He continues to believe that time is on his side and that his military can outlast Ukraine and its Western backers. The erosion of Republican Party support for Ukraine in the U.S. Congress has buoyed his hopes, along with the possibility that former U.S. President Donald Trump will return to power and either sever or downgrade the U.S. commitment to NATO. With Ukraine running out of ammunition, Russia has gone on the offensive and captured strategic towns in the eastern Donbas region, including Avdiivka, breaking the stalemate.
At home, the Russian elite and much of the public continue to at least passively support Putin’s so-called special military operation, which has been conducted in a way that limits the impact on their daily lives. Russian propaganda distorts history and in part blames the war on Western Russophobia, while the West struggles to counter disinformation. Putin has made clear that he does not feel any pressure to negotiate and seek a diplomatic solution unless the terms involve Ukraine’s total capitulation.
It is vital to U.S. interests to help Ukraine defeat Russia and to prevent the normalization of wars of aggression and changing borders by force. The United States must also deny impunity for war crimes against civilians, as well as the disruption of global energy and food supplies. Even partial success for Putin could embolden other actors, such as China or Iran, to achieve their own goals by force—such as attacking Taiwan or increasing support for extremist groups in the Middle East. And in the long term, a Russian victory in Ukraine would make Moscow’s return to the path of reform and peaceful coexistence less likely.
To mount an effective strategy for victory in Ukraine, the U.S. Congress must promptly pass a bill to fund Ukraine’s defense through the end of 2024 and beyond, if possible. A lack of U.S. funding—and by extension, of U.S. arms supplies—will jeopardize Ukraine’s ability to hold off new Russian offensives and undermine U.S. credibility and NATO solidarity. Washington’s allies understand that they will need to help fill the gap if the congressional impasse continues. The European Union’s $54 billion aid package will help, but there is only so much that European countries can do on the military side: Their stockpiles are dwindling, and efforts to build up their defense industries will take years to deliver results.
Assuming that Congress restores U.S. funding, there are two critical areas for ramping up support to Ukraine. The first is pulling out all the stops on military assistance—that is to say, playing to win, not just doing enough to ensure that Ukraine doesn’t lose. Last year’s decisions to provide a short-range version of the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), F-16 fighter jets, and Abrams tanks were encouraging, but they could have been provided earlier and in larger quantities.
Most urgently, the United States needs to lift its self-imposed ban on the longer-range version of the ATACMS, which would enable Ukraine to strike targets deeper in Crimea and hit the systems launching missiles from inside Russia. Despite leaks suggesting an impending change in U.S. policy on this long-range missile system, the Biden administration continues to hesitate. Breaking Russia’s grip on Crimea is the key to Ukrainian victory and to the long-term viability of the Ukrainian state.
Second, the West should put Ukraine on a path to NATO membership during the alliance’s summit in Washington in July. Although it is good news that allies are extending bilateral security commitments to Ukraine, as the G-7 countries agreed last year, that cannot be the final answer. Until Ukraine joins NATO and is covered by Article 5, the alliance’s collective defense clause, there can be no certainty that Russia will not attack Ukraine again.
The communiqué from NATO’s summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, last year used the right words—that “Ukraine’s future is in NATO”—and simplified the process for Kyiv’s accession. But it was vague on when and under what conditions Ukraine can expect to receive an invitation and begin accession talks. It’s not too late to adopt a more ambitious approach at the summit in Washington, which will mark the alliance’s 75th anniversary.
The decision is not a simple one for NATO. Although the alliance admitted West Germany in 1955, when Soviet troops occupied East Germany, Ukraine’s accession would be the first time a country was invited to join NATO while engaged in active combat with a hostile neighbor. Some allies have suggested that NATO can only take a decision on Ukrainian accession once the war is over. That might be the simplest approach, but it would give Russia an incentive to drag out the war—effectively giving Moscow a veto.
Beginning accession talks at the Washington summit would be a better approach. Allies could engage Ukraine in the practical work required to meet NATO membership criteria on an expedited basis: defense capabilities, reforms, interoperability, and adherence to democratic principles, among others. This would enable Ukraine to demonstrate its ability to meet the political, legal and military obligations of membership. It would also echo the EU’s approach to Ukraine’s EU accession while deferring a full invitation to join the alliance to a later decision.
Setting Ukraine on this path would give Kyiv and its allies time to work out solutions to problems related to bringing in a member still engaged in a war with Moscow. For example, if there were stability along most of the line of contact separating Ukrainian and Russian forces, NATO might proceed with accession but initially apply Article 5 only to territory fully under Ukrainian control to ensure the credibility of the collective defense guarantee.
Even after Ukraine becomes a NATO member, allies will need to continue to arm and train Ukrainian forces for the long term, including by helping them develop their own defense industry. Providing Ukraine with all the weapons that it needs to defeat Russia on the battlefield is the best way to end the war; setting Ukraine on the path to NATO membership is the best way to secure the peace.
Taken together, these steps can form the basis for a strategy for victory that is worthy of the name.
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bopinion · 4 months
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2023 / 50
Aperçu of the Week:
"Christmas isn't a season. It's a feeling."
(Edna Ferber, US-American writer and Pulitzer Prize winner)
Bad News of the Week:
It's happening now: international aid for Ukraine is faltering. Western governments are increasingly calling for a negotiated peace and would like to reinvest in national interests, as elections are soon to be held. After almost two years of reporting on the war, the Western media are showing a certain tiredness of the topic that could probably only be revived by Taylor Swift. Western populations are increasingly realizing that sanctions and military aid are good for morale but bad for the wallet. And then attention and compassion - to put it insensitively - have been strongly rivaled by the Gaza war.
Vladimir Putin has the resources on his side. The Russian ruler has a productive weapons industry, immense manpower that can be mobilized, no scruples, secure state revenues, no opposition or free media, strategic partners and above all: time. On the other hand, the USA is facing the end of its military aid due to Republican power games. Something Europe cannot compensate for. And Europe is facing a blockade of civilian aid funds (guess what? That's right: Viktor Orbán). Something the USA does not want to compensate for.
Both were foreseeable. At the latest when it became clear that the hopeful summer offensive by the Ukrainian armed forces could not actually achieve anything. In fact, it is about defending our values. Yes, the Western world ignored Libya. Abandoned Afghanistan. Looked the other way on Yemen for years until it began to hurt its own trade. But we can't just sit back and accept that a geostrategic war of aggression is being waged on the European continent. When a bully terrorizes kids in the playground, you hope that the others will stick together and stand up to him. Is that asking too much?
Good News of the Week:
The real Donald is back. I'm not talking about the beloved Disney character but about the Polish Prime Minister. The new and the old - since Donald Tusk already hold office from 2007 to 2014. After a long wait, since the Polish President - from PiS, what a surprise! - first tasked the supposed election winner PiS (Prawo i Sprawiedliwość / Law and Justice) with forming the government, even though it has no coalition partner, the will of the people was respected and the opposition took over. With Donald Tusk as Prime Minister.
It cannot have been a coincidence that his first official act was to attend the EU summit. Tusk is very familiar with its procedures. After all, he was President of the European Council from 2014 to 2019 - the number one job on this continent. And for years he was accused of putting European interests above Polish ones. Which is a paradox in itself. After all, if any nation can draw on its history to realize that it can flourish in Europe, then it is Poland.
The history of our neighboring country to the east is very complex. With many tragically dark, but also hopefully bright chapters. One thing is clear: both countries benefit from good neighborly relations. That's why it was unpleasant for us to be used as a pawn in the election campaign. In one election campaign commercial, the PiS party leader Jarosław Aleksander Kaczyński shouted into the phone that it was time to stop being dictated to by Berlin (there was also a version with Brussels). A cheap attempt by the populists to sell their right-wing nationalism as a defense of patriotic independence. Even a law (officially in order to protect elections) was passed to prevent the opposition from winning the election. And despite the lack of a parliamentary majority, the PiS was tasked with forming a government (which was doomed to failure in the foreseeable future).
It didn't help, as hundreds of thousands on the streets and ultimately the majority of the Polish electorate demanded: away from xenophobia, media surveillance and obstruction of justice. Towards democracy, freedom and Europe. Now everyone wins. The European Union is happy about a strong and self-confident, but open and cooperative Poland. And Poland is finally (back) where it belongs: in the middle of Europe.
Personal happy moment of the week:
Last Friday I was invited to a student party. Officially by my daughter's student council (political science at Munich's Ludwig Maximilian University), which is an honor that otherwise only a few professors and hand-picked alumni are entitled to. So that I could have a drink, I naturally traveled by bike and public transport. And took the penultimate regional train - just to be sure. So I was sitting on the train with Moby on my headphones when I noticed at an intermediate station that quite a few passengers had somehow got off. Then a train attendant speaks to me: "It's always the same with the headphone wearers. You have to get out of here!".
I realize that the part of the train I'm sitting in is being unhooked and parked here. I rush out of the carriage and forward to the section of the train that continues to my station. But the door no longer opens and the train starts moving. Fuck! It flashes through my mind that I now have to wait for the last train. For an hour. In sub-zero temperatures at two in the morning. At a station in the middle of nowhere, where there is neither a kiosk nor a waiting room, just a draughty platform. But after a meter the train stops, the button to open the door lights up green and I can board. The train driver has obviously seen me in the rear-view mirror. And decided that he has a soft spot for headphone wearers. Thank you very much, you made me happy.
I couldn't care less...
...about Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. He has been blocking important decisions in the European Union for years because it won't let him do everything he wants - such as disempowering the judiciary, disregarding human rights or controlling the media. He does not fit the image of a European at all. Although hardly any other EU country is as dependent on European funds as his. He would like to keep it that way. And not share financial resources with others, especially not with Ukraine. He is using his veto for this, as many decisions at European level require unanimity according to the statute. But even he will not be able to prevent Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia from seeing their future in Europe. Even if he has to leave the room even more often for important votes: Destiny is destiny.
As I write this...
...the German military ends its mission in Mali. The Bundeswehr is a so-called "parliamentary army" that may only be deployed by resolution of the Bundestag and only for defense purposes. Since the Yugoslavian wars, it has also been deployed internationally to defend civilians and democracy, for example as part of United Nations blue helmet missions. Mali is a failed state in West Africa that has been continously in armed battles since its independence from the colonial power France in 1960. The UN mission was supposed to ensure a peace process.
A decade, many deaths and billions later, the foreign military forces are withdrawing. And leave the country in just as desolate a state as they found it. Memories of Afghanistan come to mind. Perhaps we should think about the method of "creating peace without weapons" ("Frieden schaffen ohne Waffen"). I am very sure that the establishment of a permanent school and healthcare system, for example, would have done more for the population than temporary military bases.
Post Scriptum
This year's world climate conference COP28 in Dubai is over. Doubts had already been raised in the run-up to the conference as to whether the event management by one of the most important producers of fossil fuels, of all people, could ensure a targeted phase-out of precisely these forms of energy. And these doubts proved to be justified. The final communiqué, which was ratified by all participating states, contains a soft formulation that calls for a long-term phase-out of oil and gas, but does not create any obligations. Which reminds me of my son promising for the umpteenth time to tidy up his room. Because he realizes it in theory. And then nothing happens in practice.
At the same time, more and more ambitious climate protection measures are being scaled back or at least called into question. Because the hope of some technological miracle in the future (keyword "carbon capture and storage") feels so much better than giving up the comfort we are used to. Humanity has the knowledge, skills and abilities to prevent the worst. But it simply shows far too little willingness to do what is necessary. Out of laziness and convenience. Like my son. I am so tired...
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> I just want to see him having fun
— You think the war will end before May 2023?
A girl can hope, right?!
Jokes aside...I think it has to end before May 2023 (not because of Eurovison of course).
No, but I fear Ukraine can't afford continuing that war until May 2023 (or even longer).
The fact alone that we (as in "the world) are still talking about it is surprising and astonishing. Zelenskyy and his team managed in quite a brilliant way to catch the world's attention for three month (call it "propaganda", call it "clever strategies", call it whatever you want). It is a big achievement.
Think about it: How many bad things happen every day around the world? Most of them are not even mentioned in the news.
Some of them are only mentioned briefly in the news or you learn only about them if you habe a special interest in that topic and research on your own.
Here and there something is so bad it gets coverage. More or less. Usually less.
All big topics tend to vanish very, very fast from the news. Because people tend to lose interest in it very fast.
Think about Afghanistan last year. The topic was good for headlines for what...two weeks? Three? But after the big "oh my god how horrible!"-moment most people no longer cared. Of course we're all still very shocked when we read something about it (like recently, when some newspapers published the new laws), but we're shocked for a day or two and that's it (for whatever reason - no offence to anyone).
But Ukraine managed to catch our attention for three month so far. Of course and we all know that, mostly thanks to Zelenskyy and being literally everywhere and giving speeches again and again and again and again and... .
And that's freaking huge!
Zelenskyy said it himself (as well as Olena, just different): The moment they lose the world's attention they might lose the war. Because without the world's attention and the people's investment into the country, the people, the wish for peace and victory more and more countries will try to find a way out of having to help Ukraine and reduce the support.
Don't get me wrong: I believe that a lot of countries support Ukraine because they think it's right and Ukraine deserves support. But of course a lot of countries also support Ukraine only because the people of that country demand it from the gouvernement.
And while I doubt that Ukraine will lose support in the next 1, 2, 3,... months, I highly doubt if they can keep the world's attention into that war for a year or longer. Sooner or later people (and gouvernments) will get "Ukraine fatigue" or "Zelenskyy fatigue". It's a good sign he's still giving speeches infront of parliamants, is giving interviews, gets news coverage of all kind or appears at special places like Cannes. But sooner or later people will get tired, especially if nothing happens and "it's just war" and there are no news.
That's why Zelenskyy and his team try to come up with news as much as possible. Of course mostly to make sure Ukraine wins. But even on "slow news" or "no news" days they try to come up with good news, with new achievements - new money, new deals, new sanctions, new negotiations,... . Because people will be interested as long as there are news.
And we shouldn't forget that Russia hasn't stopped this war so far. They know they can't win it (right now). But they will also never give up (maybe if they're forced). Ukraine has to beat them and has to make sure (with internatioal partners and security guarentees) that Russia will never attack them again. But until they reach that point the need the attention. Because the best thing that could happen to Russia is that the world loses interest and Ukraine gets weak. Or that Ukrainians get tired of war and fightenting and no longer resist so much.
The moment "war fatigue" sets in could be Russia's moment.
Not to mention another problem. Right now Zelenskyy was able to unit the parliamant and everyone in Ukraine (besides some people, but the majority). Because they all fight for the same cause and no one would dare to touch or critize him right now. That would be political suicide and his opponents and enemies know this very well. Even his biggest critics are silent right now and support him.
Why? Well because Zelenskyy (and his team) did A LOT (if not to say basically (nearly) everything) right. They made a lot of smart decision and made sure Ukraine is winning, is getting weapons and lots of support of all kinds.
But they didn't stop hating him. They also didn't magically stop to want more power and money. The moment the war gets "slow" or Zelenskyy makes "mistakes" (or does something they can critize without getting trouble) they will jump on that opportunity. And the moment that happens it will get a lot more difficult to lead the country through war. Not to mention that his enemies outside of Ukraine are basically waiting for a real opportunity to discredit him.
It's going to be interesting how he / his team will deal with the Mariupol / Azovstal situation, especially if Russia really kidnaps / kills the soldiers and breaks the agreement. And if this will affect anything. Because his opponents will twist the story so it's his fault that "the Heroes Of Ukraine" are kidnapped / not exchanged / dead (btw: the discussion about if he's responsible or not is a whole different discussion).
Not to mention that he can't prolong martial law forever. Especially not if the war stays in the East (like the last 8 years). And if martial law ends without peace for Ukraine this will create a lot of new problems.
So it's in Zelenskyy's own interest to make sure the war ends soon. Because right now he's the reason Ukraine gets money and help for rebuillding the country. And he will be the reason to make sure Ukraine still gets support after the war. He will have to vouch with himself that the money will be used in a good way after the war. And to make sure they get money he has to make sure several things change in Ukraine (for the better). But he can only achieve this if his support is still that high and before his opponents / enemies get a chance to weaken him.
So yes, Ukraine needs to win that war for many reasons very fast and "soon" (whatever soon is).
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suratan-zir · 2 years
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Hi, I wasn't planning to write to you, but when I see you stressed from hateful messages, I just wanted to express my support from the Czech Republic. Everyone I know here has donated either to Ukraine army or some NGO trying to help. I used to think I'm a pacifist and now I'm sending more money to the army every time I feel especially down or especially angry with our world leaders for not helping more. So just... you are not alone, if it helps even a little.
Hey (I hope you don't mind me answering publicly) Don't worry, I know that I'm not alone. I know how many people around the world support Ukraine in these hard times, I am eternally grateful for that.
I understand you, I also consider myself a pacifist, as probably most people do (at least I hope so). But you can't achieve peace by tolerating and ignoring blatant, unprovoked aggression. For this reason, I also donate to Ukrainian army, because now for us victory in this war is the only way to have peace, not only in Ukraine, but in whole Europe. Russian propaganda is already saying they are not going to stop in Ukraine, and I believe them, because they have been threatening to attack the whole of Ukraine all these years and they finally did. And now, when most of the world is against Putin, he has nothing to lose. If Ukraine falls, it may only be the beginning, that's why need to win.
Thank you for the support and please take care of yourself. All my European friends, I hope you are safe now and will continue to be safe and happy ❤️
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exit-babylon · 2 years
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UNDERSTANDING THE WAR IN UKRAINE
by Fritz Springmeier.
Watching msm (which is one sided propaganda, thanks to it's Illuminati owners BlackRock as well as Vanguard) shows me the need for someone informed to write a neutral, unpartisan article. If you're interested in this latest war, and want facts, not propaganda, then this article is for you.
BLITZKRIEG. Russia began this war with what reminded me of Germany's 1939 blitzkrieg against Poland. After the first day, things began to unravel. We'll get back to the action in a min. What are some of the strengths & weaknesses of the two sides?
MILITARY FACTORS. The Ukrainian military on paper looks formidable, & has shifted to a flexible brigade structure that would assist mobility in battle, yet its ability to wage battle w/ the better equipped large Russian military is weak.
To counter balance the odds, the Ukrainian govt. has called up all males up to 60 yrs. old, & with NATO's assistance, is issuing them weapons; incl. stingers to fight aircraft, & weapons to destroy armour like javelin missiles. (Ukraine also asked friendly nations for Soviet made war planes which their pilots know, but the request "didn't fly". They only got one of their own Su-27s back from Romania.) The Illuminati have Academie snipers in country fighting with the Ukrainians. There are also other foreign volunteers. The Ukrainian military is being resupplied by 18 nations & NATO.
While Ukrainians will fight Russia (& they have in the past against all odds), there will be little benefit for the Ukraine, nor Russia, nor NATO to actually engage in war.
Russia is a tough, big bear. Their spetznaz troops fight hard & fast. (Ukraine has some too called the Alpha group.) If they have to, Russia will use brute force like in Chechnya. Historically, the Russian military has been (relative to the USA) weak on logistics, communication, & letting the rank & file know what's going on. So a quick, short war is to their advantage. The longer it drags on the more things can unravel.
Apparently, the Russians did not expect to encounter such hard opposition. Their assault on Kiev's airport & afterwards the capital itself by paratroopers, was counterattacked & thrown back. Of their 5 pronged invasion to split the Ukrainian defenders up in Blitzkrieg only the two southern prongs are moving easily.
It appears the Russian generals thought they could just follow the steps of Blitzkrieg & roll over the opposition. First came surprise, with something like 160 missiles launched at key targets. Then capture the airspace. Then send in the shock assault troops.
Now that we've seen the technical side of the fighting, why is this war occurring?
INSIGHTFUL OVERVIEW INTO THE INTERNATIONAL SCENE (ACT) IN UKRAINE. The elite, who study geopolitics & its eco. ramifications, have been writing books & papers for the last 30 years on how the Ukraine would become a buffer between the EU & Russia, and that its stability was important for the EU's/NATO's security. In the case of this war, it has taken two sides to get a senseless fight going.
Some readers will appreciate my knowledge of the "cabal" at the top who manipulate world events. From the elites' perspective it's a contrived script with a preplanned outcome. (As outrageous as this may seem to some readers, this is not conjecture, but a fact.)
But the fact that it was preplanned, doesn't reduce it's reality for the common man who will suffer it's widespread consequences. Granted people are resilient & figure out ways to redeem suffering, but considering all the negative consequences for humanity, this war is senseless. There are brilliant thinkers on both sides, but I can't help thinking of how the Bible says the wisdom of man is foolishness with God. If people had not been so small minded a peaceful win-win outcome could have been achieved.
HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVES & TRIGGERS. The elite have studied the issues between nations & what they value indepth. Their dramas incorporate into their scripts the manipulation of actual existing ways of thinking (call them triggers) of the people involved. For instance, in Jan. 2020, Kazakhstan was a failed Soros color revolution, designed to poke the bear. So it is important to gain an appreciation for the deep seated ideas that motivate people in the area. While the Ukraine is intimately related to Russia, it has its own identity.
THE BEGINNING. Originally, Russia settled the area & Kieven Rus, the antecedent to the Tsardom of Russia, was established. But in the 1300's Rus (Russia) lost control over the Ukraine & did not completely regain it for approx. 500 yrs. For most of its history, it was ruled by non-Russians.The Ukraine has also had a history as a proud independent nation. It was one of the founding nations of the USSR in 1922. But its independence was lost to the USSR, which then promoted Russia & things Russian. If you want to get a Ukrainian angry, call him a "Russian".
WW2. Many Ukrainians served with the Nazi army some in hopes to regain Ukrainian independence from the USSR. When the Russians pushed the invading German army out of the Ukraine in 1944, the Ukrainians began a war to capture their nation from the Russians. While greatly outclassed, they continued vainly fighting for independence for about 5 more years.
The western provinces of the Ukraine are anti-Russian & pro-European. Ukrainians were outraged at the USSR's blunders with the Chernobyl Nuclear Plant in the Ukraine that did so much damage to their land.
The Ukraine is considered the largest nation in Europe, & while it has been denied union with the EU and NATO, its military has been having joint training ops w/ NATO. Ukrainian pride & desires for independence & freedom run deep.
Both sides in this war have legitimate grievances. I can't enumerate them all. Our corrupt leaders have been using the Ukraine to further their corruption.
Very briefly here is what has happened: the Ukrainian parliament impeached a pro-Russian president, & his replacement was a pro-West president. The parliament, when a new pro-West govt. came into power revoked the legal status for Russians. Violence in the streets between govt. protestors & police left over 90 protestors dead. Russia responded by semi-covertly sending in its military to seize the Crimea, the most southern part of the nation. The Ukraine gave up the Crimea without a fight, perhaps misleading the Russian generals to think this invasion would be easier.
The Crimea (part of the Ukraine but now under Russia) is a large peninsula on the Black Sea, & has based the important Russian Black Sea Fleet. A treaty w/ the Ukraine, good 'til 2035, gives naval bases to the Russians on the Crimea. About 60% of the Crimeans are Russians, rather than Ukrainians.
Eastern & southern Ukraine is more pro-Russian than western Ukraine. So we have a nation with polarized divided loyalties, & a Russian govt. which is extremely sensitive to anything that goes on in the Ukraine. Manipulation of events & people are easy with such strong feelings on the two sides.
ECONOMIC FACTORS. The EU (under Illuminati leadership) intends to economically exploit the Ukraine. The Ukraine is currently an economic basket case, but has lots of potential, and no doubt would see improvements in their economy & standard of living if the EU can develop them. The new pro-West govt. has the support of the Ukraine's billionaires.
Their richest man Rinat L. Akhmetov called on Ukrainians to unite against the Russian invasion. (However Rinat Akhmetov has made comments supporting the separatists & against Zelensky also.) Sergei Taruta & Ihor Kolomoysky, billionaires & pro-EU, agreed to be governors over the pro-Russian provinces in eastern Ukraine for the new pro-West govt. in order to help insure that eastern Ukrainians stayed loyal to the new govt.
Russia runs a no. of oil pipelines thru the Ukraine into Poland, Slovakia & Hungary. These lines (like Nord Stream 2) may in the future be extended into Germany & Italy. Russia can stop its gas/oil to the Ukraine, as well as to the eastern Europeans. Bear in mind, 80% of Russia's gas exports were to the EU! The problem for Russia is they need the money from the gas/oil perhaps more than the Europeans need the gas. To use the pipelines as a weapon will backfire on everyone. Some European nations like Poland & Bulgaria are totally dependant on Russia.
So we have a struggle between the EU & Russia, and I expect the EU will win in the ways they need to (they have something like ten times the economic clout), although they may make concessions or compromises with Russia, or perhaps they'll just let it get out of control & spread. Some observers see the world stepping into WW3.
CONCLUSION. What you are watching is a worldly power struggle that was conceived & scripted long ago, & is now being staged for our attention. The real reasons behind the manipulations are diabolical & economical, but the tensions between the different players are rooted in centuries' old animosities.
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klbmsw · 4 years
Text
My Biggest Issue with Trump..
My biggest issue with Trump is probably the fact that he has had no prior political experience, went bankrupt 6 times and has many failed businesses, paid off a porn star to keep quiet, has over 24 harassment allegations, has had 2 articles of impeachment drafted against him, illegally contacted Ukraine to help him win re-election, has the most hours of golfing over any president, has done nothing to help our dying climate,  botched the corona virus response because he called it a hoax by the democrats instead of acting quicker, has never had an approval rating of over 45 percent, the whole Central Park 5 incident, thinks climate change is a Chinese hoax, told POC to go back to where they came from, throws meltdowns on Twitter, constantly retweets himself agreeing with himself, has had tweets flagged for misinformation, signed an executive bill regarding Twitter after his feelings got hurt, has increased our debt, hasn’t pulled out of any wars, abandoned the Kurds, is really fat with a spray tan, has US pride at an all time low, has 10 cases of obstruction of justice per the Mueller report, used George Floyd as an excuse to brag about job numbers, wanted to use violence against peaceful protestors, has done nothing to solve the wealth gap or poverty rate, has increased our debt, is fat and has an ugly spray tan, said he would date his own daughter, talked about fake treatments during a corona press conference,  used to be an anti vaxxer, violated an official weather map with a fucking sharpie, all the shit in john Bolton’s book, said that cases would disappear if testing stopped, has a Vice President that can’t say “black lives matter” only “all lives matter”, falsely claimed there’s an AIDS vaccine, loves himself but has little empathy for others, is a complete asshole to reporters, made fun of someone disabled, the “grab by the pussy” thing, wanted to nuke a hurricane, thinks windmills cause cancer,  has told over 19,000 false claims, talked more about him on a ramp than George Floyd, wants burning the flag to be a crime, called the corona virus the kung flu, and has done nothing to help the average American.Also the fact that he’s a lying, unqualified, draft dodging, gold star family disrespecting, POW attacking, US General insulting, racist, sexist, vulgar, confirmed sexual assaulting, trillion dollars to the rich tax cutting, own daughter creeping, wife cheating with a porn star after birth of son and paying her off to influence a presidential election, $413 million dollar inheritance getting, teen pageant dressing room invading, baby and mother separating, breast feeding mother shaming, fat-shaming while being fat, 17 women accusing him of sexual assaulting, accusers are not attractive enough for him to assault implying, university student defrauding, bankrupt casino causing, kids cancer charity stealing, taped detailed accusation of rape of a minor having, wife-beating, popular vote losing, anti-vaxxing, Christianity-faking, publicist impersonating, tax dodging, friends’ wives pursuing, impeached, foreign aid bribing, 1/3 of the presidency golf playing, free press assaulting, Hannity coordinating, Cambridge Analytica using, Ivanka is a “piece of ass” approving, loan application asset inflating, historically low polling, college achievement faking, unqualified judge appointing, unqualified cabinet member appointing, foreign influence on our election welcoming, tax release avoiding, birther conspiracy spreading, Ukraine ambassador targeting, Russian money taking, Kurdish ally abandoning, soldier brain injury downplaying, full morning “executive time” taking, Epstein befriending, Putin bowing, Kim Jong Un praising, North Korean general saluting, US intelligence denying, tallest building in lower Manhattan after 9/11 boasting, congress obstructing, nuclear non-proliferation deal ending, Justice obstructing, unqualified daughter and son-in-law appointing, healthcare cut targeting, pedophile candidate supporting, trump tower Moscow denying, mail-bomber inspiring, 4 out of top 5 largest protests in US history causing, green energy stifling, clean water regulation destroying, healthy school lunch ending, climate change denying, congressional and judicial branch attacking, economy does better under democrats saying, Goldman Sachs appointing, food stamp removing, emissions standards lowering, press conference avoiding, emoluments clause breaking, longest govt shutdown record holding, Saudi Arabia nuclear tech selling, golf cheating, time magazine cover faking, El Paso mass shooter inspiring, paying legal bills for roughing up protestors promising, killed soldier “knew what he signed up for” saying, pardon abusing, scumbag.
Sources:• ⁠lying, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/12/16/president-trump-has-made-false-or-misleading-claims-over-days/• ⁠unqualified, https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/11/13587532/donald-trump-no-experience• ⁠draft dodging, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2018/12/27/trump-vietnam-war-bone-spur-diagnosis/2420475002/• ⁠gold star family disrespecting, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/31/us/politics/donald-trump-khizr-khan-wife-ghazala.html• ⁠POW attacking, https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/07/18/424169549/trump-lashes-out-at-mccain-i-like-people-who-werent-captured• ⁠US General insulting, https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/01/17/trump-blasted-top-military-generals-as-a-bunch-of-dopes-and-babies-according-to-new-book/• ⁠racist, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/06/trump-racism-comments/588067/• ⁠sexist, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-50563106• ⁠vulgar, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/08/us/donald-trump-tape-transcript.html• ⁠confirmed sexual assaulting, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/08/us/donald-trump-tape-transcript.html• ⁠trillion dollars to the rich tax cutting, https://budget.house.gov/publications/publication/gop-tax-law-showers-benefits-wealthy-and-large-corporations-while• ⁠own daughter creeping, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/donald-trump-ivanka-trump-creepiest-most-unsettling-comments-a-roundup-a7353876.html• ⁠wife cheating with a pornstar after birth of son and paying her off to influence a presidential election, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-43334326• ⁠$413 million dollar inheritance getting, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/10/04/the-new-york-times-revealed-how-fred-trump-funneled-413-million-to-his-son-donald-will-that-change-american-opinion/• ⁠teen pageant dressing room invading, https://www.politifact.com/wisconsin/article/2016/oct/18/allegations-about-donald-trump-and-miss-teen-usa-c/• ⁠baby and mother separating, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/14/the-weekly/trump-immigration-border-separation-family.html• ⁠breast feeding mother shaming, https://www.parents.com/baby/all-about-babies/fighting-words-donald-trump-called-a-breastfeeding-mom-disgusting/• ⁠fat-shaming while being fat, http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/08/trump-fat-shames-own-supporter-frank-dawson-new-hampshire-rally.html• ⁠17 women accusing him of sexual assaulting, https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/list-trumps-accusers-allegations-sexual-misconduct/story?id=51956410• ⁠accusers are not attractive enough for him to assault implying, https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/10/donald-trump-insults-accusers-ugly• ⁠university student defrauding, https://abcnews.go.com/US/judge-finalizes-25-million-settlement-victims-donald-trumps/story?id=54347237• ⁠bankrupt casino causing, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2016/live-updates/general-election/real-time-fact-checking-and-analysis-of-the-first-presidential-debate/fact-check-has-trump-declared-bankruptcy-four-or-six-times/• ⁠kids cancer charity stealing, https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2019/12/23/best-stories-of-the-decade-how-donald-trump-shifted-kids-cancer-charity-money-into-his-business/• ⁠taped detailed accusation of rape of a minor having, https://www.snopes.com/news/2016/06/23/donald-trump-rape-lawsuit/• ⁠wife-beating, https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/10/24/documenting-trumps-abuse-of-women• ⁠popular vote losing, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/donald-trump-lost-popular-vote-hillary-clinton-us-election-president-history-a7470116.html• ⁠anti-vaxxing, https://mobile.twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/449525268529815552?lang=en• ⁠Christianity-faking, https://www.kentucky.com/opinion/op-ed/article216494035.html• ⁠publicist impersonating, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/05/13/donald-trump-people-magazine-washington/84333614/• ⁠tax dodging, https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/10/2/17929774/donald-trump-tax-evasion-fred-trump-new-york-times• ⁠friends’ wives pursuing, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-sex-friends-wives-are-book-claims-true-michael-wolff-fire-fury-white-house-bannon-a8142011.html• ⁠impeached, https://time.com/5552679/impeached-presidents/• ⁠foreign aid bribing, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49800181• ⁠1/3 of the presidency golf playing, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/12/30/nearly-third-days-hes-been-president-trumps-visited-trump-branded-property/• ⁠free press assaulting, https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/10/29/18037894/donald-trump-twitter-media-enemy-pittsburgh• ⁠Hannity coordinating, https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/emmaloop/sean-hannity-trump-allies-mueller-memos-fox-news• ⁠Cambridge Analytica using, https://www.wired.com/story/what-did-cambridge-analytica-really-do-for-trumps-campaign/• ⁠Ivanka is a “piece of ass” approving, https://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/trump-ivanka-piece-of-ass-howard-stern-229376• ⁠loan application asset inflating, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/27/business/donald-trump-buffalo-bills-deutsche-bank.html• ⁠historically low polling, https://theweek.com/speedreads/890683/trumps-approval-rating-pace-lowest-ever-among-independents-gallup-poll-shows• ⁠college achievement faking, https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherrim/2019/02/28/heres-why-donald-trump-doesnt-want-anyone-to-know-his-grades-or-sat-scores/• ⁠unqualified judge appointing, https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/confirmation-expected-for-another-unqualified-trump-judge-pick• ⁠unqualified cabinet member appointing, https://www.latimes.com/local/education/la-me-eli-broad-opposes-devos-20170201-story.html
Chris Russo  
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angelishere407 · 4 years
Text
My biggest issue with Trump is probably the fact that he has had no prior political experience, went bankrupt 6 times and has many failed businesses, paid off a porn star to keep quiet, has over 24 harassment allegations, has had 2 articles of impeachment drafted against him, illegally contacted Ukraine to help him win re-election, has the most hours of golfing over any president, has done nothing to help our dying climate, botched the coronavirus response because he called it a hoax by the democrats instead of acting quicker, has never had an approval rating of over 45 percent, the whole Central Park 5 incident, thinks climate change is a Chinese hoax, told POC to go back to where they came from, throws meltdowns on Twitter, constantly retweets himself agreeing with himself, has had tweets flagged for misinformation, signed an executive bill regarding Twitter after his feelings got hurt, has increased our debt, hasn’t pulled out of any wars, adbandoned the Kurds, is really fat with a spray tan, has US pride at an all time low, has 10 cases of obstruction of justice per the mueller report, used George Floyd as an excuse to brag about job numbers, wanted to use violence against peaceful protestors, has done nothing to solve the wealth gap or poverty rate, has increased our debt, is fat and has an ugly spray tan, said he would date his own daughter, talked about fake treatments during a corona press conference, used to be an anti vaxxer, violated an official weather map with a fucking sharpie, all the shit in john Bolton’s book, said that cases would disappear if testing stopped, has a Vice President that can’t say “black lives matter” only “all lives matter”, falsely claimed there’s an AIDS vaccine, loves himself but has little empathy for others, is a complete asshole to reporters, made fun of someone disabled, the “grab by the pussy” thing, wanted to nuke a hurricane, thinks windmills cause cancer, has told over 19,000 false claims, talked more about him on a ramp than George Floyd, wants burning the flag to be a crime, called the coronavirus the kung flu, and has done nothing to help the average American.
Also the fact that he’s a lying, unqualified, draft dodging, gold star family disrespecting, POW attacking, US General insulting, racist, sexist, vulgar, confirmed sexual assaulting, trillion dollars to the rich tax cutting, own daughter creeping, wife cheating with a pornstar after birth of son and paying her off to influence a presidential election, $413 million dollar inheritance getting, teen pageant dressing room invading, baby and mother separating, breast feeding mother shaming, fat-shaming while being fat, 17 women accusing him of sexual assaulting, accusers are not attractive enough for him to assault implying, university student defrauding, bankrupt casino causing, kids cancer charity stealing, taped detailed accusation of rape of a minor having, wife-beating, popular vote losing, anti-vaxxing, Christianity-faking, publicist impersonating, tax dodging, friends’ wives pursuing, impeached, foreign aid bribing, 1/3 of the presidency golf playing, free press assaulting, Hannity coordinating, Cambridge Analytica using, Ivanka is a “piece of ass” approving, loan application asset inflating, historically low polling, college achievement faking, unqualified judge appointing, unqualified cabinet member appointing, foreign influence on our election welcoming, tax release avoiding, birther conspiracy spreading, Ukraine ambassador targeting, Russian money taking, Kurdish ally abandoning, soldier brain injury downplaying, full morning “executive time” taking, Epstein befriending, Putin bowing, Kim Jong Un praising, North Korean general saluting, US intelligence denying, tallest building in lower Manhattan after 9/11 boasting, congress obstructing, nuclear non-proliferation deal ending, Justice obstructing, unqualified daughter and son-in-law appointing, healthcare cut targeting, pedophile candidate supporting, trump tower Moscow denying, mail-bomber inspiring, 4 out of top 5 largest protests in US history causing, green energy stifling, clean water regulation destroying, healthy school lunch ending, climate change denying, congressional and judicial branch attacking, economy does better under democrats saying, Goldman Sachs appointing, food stamp removing, emissions standards lowering, press conference avoiding, emoluments clause breaking, longest govt shutdown record holding, Saudi Arabia nuclear tech selling, golf cheating, time magazine cover faking, El Paso mass shooter inspiring, paying legal bills for roughing up protestors promising, killed soldier “knew what he signed up for” saying, pardon abusing, scumbag.
Sources:
• ⁠lying, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/12/16/president-trump-has-made-false-or-misleading-claims-over-days/
• ⁠unqualified, https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/11/13587532/donald-trump-no-experience
• ⁠draft dodging, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2018/12/27/trump-vietnam-war-bone-spur-diagnosis/2420475002/
• ⁠gold star family disrespecting, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/31/us/politics/donald-trump-khizr-khan-wife-ghazala.html
• ⁠POW attacking, https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/07/18/424169549/trump-lashes-out-at-mccain-i-like-people-who-werent-captured
• ⁠US General insulting, https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/01/17/trump-blasted-top-military-generals-as-a-bunch-of-dopes-and-babies-according-to-new-book/
• ⁠racist, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/06/trump-racism-comments/588067/
• ⁠sexist, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-50563106
• ⁠vulgar, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/08/us/donald-trump-tape-transcript.html
• ⁠confirmed sexual assaulting, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/08/us/donald-trump-tape-transcript.html
• ⁠trillion dollars to the rich tax cutting, https://budget.house.gov/publications/publication/gop-tax-law-showers-benefits-wealthy-and-large-corporations-while
• ⁠own daughter creeping, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/donald-trump-ivanka-trump-creepiest-most-unsettling-comments-a-roundup-a7353876.html
• ⁠wife cheating with a pornstar after birth of son and paying her off to influence a presidential election, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-43334326
• ⁠$413 million dollar inheritance getting, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/10/04/the-new-york-times-revealed-how-fred-trump-funneled-413-million-to-his-son-donald-will-that-change-american-opinion/
• ⁠teen pageant dressing room invading, https://www.politifact.com/wisconsin/article/2016/oct/18/allegations-about-donald-trump-and-miss-teen-usa-c/
• ⁠baby and mother separating, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/14/the-weekly/trump-immigration-border-separation-family.html
• ⁠breast feeding mother shaming, https://www.parents.com/baby/all-about-babies/fighting-words-donald-trump-called-a-breastfeeding-mom-disgusting/
• ⁠fat-shaming while being fat, http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/08/trump-fat-shames-own-supporter-frank-dawson-new-hampshire-rally.html
• ⁠17 women accusing him of sexual assaulting, https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/list-trumps-accusers-allegations-sexual-misconduct/story?id=51956410
• ⁠accusers are not attractive enough for him to assault implying, https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/10/donald-trump-insults-accusers-ugly
• ⁠university student defrauding, https://abcnews.go.com/US/judge-finalizes-25-million-settlement-victims-donald-trumps/story?id=54347237
• ⁠bankrupt casino causing, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2016/live-updates/general-election/real-time-fact-checking-and-analysis-of-the-first-presidential-debate/fact-check-has-trump-declared-bankruptcy-four-or-six-times/
• ⁠kids cancer charity stealing, https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2019/12/23/best-stories-of-the-decade-how-donald-trump-shifted-kids-cancer-charity-money-into-his-business/
• ⁠taped detailed accusation of rape of a minor having, https://www.snopes.com/news/2016/06/23/donald-trump-rape-lawsuit/
• ⁠wife-beating, https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/10/24/documenting-trumps-abuse-of-women
• ⁠popular vote losing, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/donald-trump-lost-popular-vote-hillary-clinton-us-election-president-history-a7470116.html
• ⁠anti-vaxxing, https://mobile.twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/449525268529815552?lang=en
• ⁠Christianity-faking, https://www.kentucky.com/opinion/op-ed/article216494035.html
• ⁠publicist impersonating, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/05/13/donald-trump-people-magazine-washington/84333614/
• ⁠tax dodging, https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/10/2/17929774/donald-trump-tax-evasion-fred-trump-new-york-times
• ⁠friends’ wives pursuing, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-sex-friends-wives-are-book-claims-true-michael-wolff-fire-fury-white-house-bannon-a8142011.html
• ⁠impeached, https://time.com/5552679/impeached-presidents/
• ⁠foreign aid bribing, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49800181
• ⁠1/3 of the presidency golf playing, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/12/30/nearly-third-days-hes-been-president-trumps-visited-trump-branded-property/
• ⁠free press assaulting, https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/10/29/18037894/donald-trump-twitter-media-enemy-pittsburgh
• ⁠Hannity coordinating, https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/emmaloop/sean-hannity-trump-allies-mueller-memos-fox-news
• ⁠Cambridge Analytica using, https://www.wired.com/story/what-did-cambridge-analytica-really-do-for-trumps-campaign/
• ⁠Ivanka is a “piece of ass” approving, https://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/trump-ivanka-piece-of-ass-howard-stern-229376
• ⁠loan application asset inflating, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/27/business/donald-trump-buffalo-bills-deutsche-bank.html
• ⁠historically low polling, https://theweek.com/speedreads/890683/trumps-approval-rating-pace-lowest-ever-among-independents-gallup-poll-shows
• ⁠college achievement faking, https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherrim/2019/02/28/heres-why-donald-trump-doesnt-want-anyone-to-know-his-grades-or-sat-scores/
• ⁠unqualified judge appointing, https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/confirmation-expected-for-another-unqualified-trump-judge-pick
• ⁠unqualified cabinet member appointing, https://www.latimes.com/local/education/la-me-eli-broad-opposes-devos-20170201-story.html
FACTS IN YO FACE!!
CREDIT GOES TO CHRIS RUSSO. This is his post, his words...and I love it!!
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dixiethapixie · 4 years
Text
My biggest issue with Trump is probably the fact that he has had no prior political experience, went bankrupt 6 times and has many failed businesses, paid off a porn star to keep quiet, has over 24 harassment allegations, has had 2 articles of impeachment drafted against him, illegally contacted Ukraine to help him win re-election, has the most hours of golfing over any president, has done nothing to help our dying climate, botched the coronavirus response because he called it a hoax by the democrats instead of acting quicker, has never had an approval rating of over 45 percent, the whole Central Park 5 incident, thinks climate change is a Chinese hoax, told POC to go back to where they came from, throws meltdowns on Twitter, constantly retweets himself agreeing with himself, has had tweets flagged for misinformation, signed an executive bill regarding Twitter after his feelings got hurt, has increased our debt, hasn’t pulled out of any wars, adbandoned the Kurds, is really fat with a spray tan, has US pride at an all time low, has 10 cases of obstruction of justice per the mueller report, used George Floyd as an excuse to brag about job numbers, wanted to use violence against peaceful protestors, has done nothing to solve the wealth gap or poverty rate, has increased our debt, is fat and has an ugly spray tan, said he would date his own daughter, talked about fake treatments during a corona press conference, used to be an anti vaxxer, violated an official weather map with a fucking sharpie, all the shit in john Bolton’s book, said that cases would disappear if testing stopped, has a Vice President that can’t say “black lives matter” only “all lives matter”, falsely claimed there’s an AIDS vaccine, loves himself but has little empathy for others, is a complete asshole to reporters, made fun of someone disabled, the “grab by the pussy” thing, wanted to nuke a hurricane, thinks windmills cause cancer, has told over 19,000 false claims, talked more about him on a ramp than George Floyd, wants burning the flag to be a crime, called the coronavirus the kung flu, and has done nothing to help the average American.
Also the fact that he’s a lying, unqualified, draft dodging, gold star family disrespecting, POW attacking, US General insulting, racist, sexist, vulgar, confirmed sexual assaulting, trillion dollars to the rich tax cutting, own daughter creeping, wife cheating with a pornstar after birth of son and paying her off to influence a presidential election, $413 million dollar inheritance getting, teen pageant dressing room invading, baby and mother separating, breast feeding mother shaming, fat-shaming while being fat, 17 women accusing him of sexual assaulting, accusers are not attractive enough for him to assault implying, university student defrauding, bankrupt casino causing, kids cancer charity stealing, taped detailed accusation of rape of a minor having, wife-beating, popular vote losing, anti-vaxxing, Christianity-faking, publicist impersonating, tax dodging, friends’ wives pursuing, impeached, foreign aid bribing, 1/3 of the presidency golf playing, free press assaulting, Hannity coordinating, Cambridge Analytica using, Ivanka is a “piece of ass” approving, loan application asset inflating, historically low polling, college achievement faking, unqualified judge appointing, unqualified cabinet member appointing, foreign influence on our election welcoming, tax release avoiding, birther conspiracy spreading, Ukraine ambassador targeting, Russian money taking, Kurdish ally abandoning, soldier brain injury downplaying, full morning “executive time” taking, Epstein befriending, Putin bowing, Kim Jong Un praising, North Korean general saluting, US intelligence denying, tallest building in lower Manhattan after 9/11 boasting, congress obstructing, nuclear non-proliferation deal ending, Justice obstructing, unqualified daughter and son-in-law appointing, healthcare cut targeting, pedophile candidate supporting, trump tower Moscow denying, mail-bomber inspiring, 4 out of top 5 largest protests in US history causing, green energy stifling, clean water regulation destroying, healthy school lunch ending, climate change denying, congressional and judicial branch attacking, economy does better under democrats saying, Goldman Sachs appointing, food stamp removing, emissions standards lowering, press conference avoiding, emoluments clause breaking, longest govt shutdown record holding, Saudi Arabia nuclear tech selling, golf cheating, time magazine cover faking, El Paso mass shooter inspiring, paying legal bills for roughing up protestors promising, killed soldier “knew what he signed up for” saying, pardon abusing, scumbag.
Sources:
• ⁠lying, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/12/16/president-trump-has-made-false-or-misleading-claims-over-days/
• ⁠unqualified, https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/11/13587532/donald-trump-no-experience
• ⁠draft dodging, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2018/12/27/trump-vietnam-war-bone-spur-diagnosis/2420475002/
• ⁠gold star family disrespecting, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/31/us/politics/donald-trump-khizr-khan-wife-ghazala.html
• ⁠POW attacking, https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/07/18/424169549/trump-lashes-out-at-mccain-i-like-people-who-werent-captured
• ⁠US General insulting, https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/01/17/trump-blasted-top-military-generals-as-a-bunch-of-dopes-and-babies-according-to-new-book/
• ⁠racist, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/06/trump-racism-comments/588067/
• ⁠sexist, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-50563106
• ⁠vulgar, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/08/us/donald-trump-tape-transcript.html
• ⁠confirmed sexual assaulting, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/08/us/donald-trump-tape-transcript.html
• ⁠trillion dollars to the rich tax cutting, https://budget.house.gov/publications/publication/gop-tax-law-showers-benefits-wealthy-and-large-corporations-while
• ⁠own daughter creeping, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/donald-trump-ivanka-trump-creepiest-most-unsettling-comments-a-roundup-a7353876.html
• ⁠wife cheating with a pornstar after birth of son and paying her off to influence a presidential election, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-43334326
• ⁠$413 million dollar inheritance getting, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/10/04/the-new-york-times-revealed-how-fred-trump-funneled-413-million-to-his-son-donald-will-that-change-american-opinion/
• ⁠teen pageant dressing room invading, https://www.politifact.com/wisconsin/article/2016/oct/18/allegations-about-donald-trump-and-miss-teen-usa-c/
• ⁠baby and mother separating, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/14/the-weekly/trump-immigration-border-separation-family.html
• ⁠breast feeding mother shaming, https://www.parents.com/baby/all-about-babies/fighting-words-donald-trump-called-a-breastfeeding-mom-disgusting/
• ⁠fat-shaming while being fat, http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/08/trump-fat-shames-own-supporter-frank-dawson-new-hampshire-rally.html
• ⁠17 women accusing him of sexual assaulting, https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/list-trumps-accusers-allegations-sexual-misconduct/story?id=51956410
• ⁠accusers are not attractive enough for him to assault implying, https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/10/donald-trump-insults-accusers-ugly
• ⁠university student defrauding, https://abcnews.go.com/US/judge-finalizes-25-million-settlement-victims-donald-trumps/story?id=54347237
• ⁠bankrupt casino causing, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2016/live-updates/general-election/real-time-fact-checking-and-analysis-of-the-first-presidential-debate/fact-check-has-trump-declared-bankruptcy-four-or-six-times/
• ⁠kids cancer charity stealing, https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2019/12/23/best-stories-of-the-decade-how-donald-trump-shifted-kids-cancer-charity-money-into-his-business/
• ⁠taped detailed accusation of rape of a minor having, https://www.snopes.com/news/2016/06/23/donald-trump-rape-lawsuit/
• ⁠wife-beating, https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/10/24/documenting-trumps-abuse-of-women
• ⁠popular vote losing, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/donald-trump-lost-popular-vote-hillary-clinton-us-election-president-history-a7470116.html
• ⁠anti-vaxxing, https://mobile.twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/449525268529815552?lang=en
• ⁠Christianity-faking, https://www.kentucky.com/opinion/op-ed/article216494035.html
• ⁠publicist impersonating, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/05/13/donald-trump-people-magazine-washington/84333614/
• ⁠tax dodging, https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/10/2/17929774/donald-trump-tax-evasion-fred-trump-new-york-times
• ⁠friends’ wives pursuing, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-sex-friends-wives-are-book-claims-true-michael-wolff-fire-fury-white-house-bannon-a8142011.html
• ⁠impeached, https://time.com/5552679/impeached-presidents/
• ⁠foreign aid bribing, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49800181
• ⁠1/3 of the presidency golf playing, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/12/30/nearly-third-days-hes-been-president-trumps-visited-trump-branded-property/
• ⁠free press assaulting, https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/10/29/18037894/donald-trump-twitter-media-enemy-pittsburgh
• ⁠Hannity coordinating, https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/emmaloop/sean-hannity-trump-allies-mueller-memos-fox-news
• ⁠Cambridge Analytica using, https://www.wired.com/story/what-did-cambridge-analytica-really-do-for-trumps-campaign/
• ⁠Ivanka is a “piece of ass” approving, https://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/trump-ivanka-piece-of-ass-howard-stern-229376
• ⁠loan application asset inflating, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/27/business/donald-trump-buffalo-bills-deutsche-bank.html
• ⁠historically low polling, https://theweek.com/speedreads/890683/trumps-approval-rating-pace-lowest-ever-among-independents-gallup-poll-shows
• ⁠college achievement faking, https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherrim/2019/02/28/heres-why-donald-trump-doesnt-want-anyone-to-know-his-grades-or-sat-scores/
• ⁠unqualified judge appointing, https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/confirmation-expected-for-another-unqualified-trump-judge-pick
• ⁠unqualified cabinet member appointing, https://www.latimes.com/local/education/la-me-eli-broad-opposes-devos-20170201-story.html
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yobaba30 · 4 years
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I will not vote for scrump ...
My biggest issue with Trump is probably the fact that he has had no prior political experience, went bankrupt 6 times and has many failed businesses, paid off a porn star to keep quiet, has over 24 harassment allegations, has had 2 articles of impeachment drafted against him, illegally contacted Ukraine to help him win re-election, has the most hours of golfing over any president, has done nothing to help our dying climate,  botched the coronavirus response because he called it a hoax by the democrats instead of acting quicker, has never had an approval rating of over 45 percent, the whole Central Park 5 incident, thinks climate change is a Chinese hoax, told POC to go back to where they came from, throws meltdowns on Twitter, constantly retweets himself agreeing with himself, has had tweets flagged for misinformation, signed an executive bill regarding Twitter after his feelings got hurt, has increased our debt, hasn’t pulled out of any wars, abandoned the Kurds, is really fat with a spray tan, has US pride at an all time low, has 10 cases of obstruction of justice per the Mueller report, used George Floyd as an excuse to brag about job numbers, wanted to use violence against peaceful protestors, has done nothing to solve the wealth gap or poverty rate, has increased our debt, is fat and has an ugly spray tan, said he would date his own daughter, talked about fake treatments during a corona press conference,  used to be an anti vaxxer, violated an official weather map with a fucking sharpie, all the shit in john Bolton’s book, said that cases would disappear if testing stopped, has a Vice President that can’t say “black lives matter” only “all lives matter”, falsely claimed there’s an AIDS vaccine, loves himself but has little empathy for others, is a complete asshole to reporters, made fun of someone disabled, the “grab by the pussy” thing, wanted to nuke a hurricane, thinks windmills cause cancer,  has told over 19,000 false claims, talked more about him on a ramp than George Floyd, wants burning the flag to be a crime, called the coronavirus the kung flu, and has done nothing to help the average American.Also the fact that he’s a lying, unqualified, draft dodging, gold star family disrespecting, POW attacking, US General insulting, racist, sexist, vulgar, confirmed sexual assaulting, trillion dollars to the rich tax cutting, own daughter creeping, wife cheating with a pornstar after birth of son and paying her off to influence a presidential election, $413 million dollar inheritance getting, teen pageant dressing room invading, baby and mother separating, breast feeding mother shaming, fat-shaming while being fat, 17 women accusing him of sexual assaulting, accusers are not attractive enough for him to assault implying, university student defrauding, bankrupt casino causing, kids cancer charity stealing, taped detailed accusation of rape of a minor having, wife-beating, popular vote losing, anti-vaxxing, Christianity-faking, publicist impersonating, tax dodging, friends’ wives pursuing, impeached, foreign aid bribing, 1/3 of the presidency golf playing, free press assaulting, Hannity coordinating, Cambridge Analytica using, Ivanka is a “piece of ass” approving, loan application asset inflating, historically low polling, college achievement faking, unqualified judge appointing, unqualified cabinet member appointing, foreign influence on our election welcoming, tax release avoiding, birther conspiracy spreading, Ukraine ambassador targeting, Russian money taking, Kurdish ally abandoning, soldier brain injury downplaying, full morning “executive time” taking, Epstein befriending, Putin bowing, Kim Jong Un praising, North Korean general saluting, US intelligence denying, tallest building in lower Manhattan after 9/11 boasting, congress obstructing, nuclear non-proliferation deal ending, Justice obstructing, unqualified daughter and son-in-law appointing, healthcare cut targeting, pedophile candidate supporting, trump tower Moscow denying, mail-bomber inspiring, 4 out of top 5 largest protests in US history causing, green energy stifling, clean water regulation destroying, healthy school lunch ending, climate change denying, congressional and judicial branch attacking, economy does better under democrats saying, Goldman Sachs appointing, food stamp removing, emissions standards lowering, press conference avoiding, emoluments clause breaking, longest govt shutdown record holding, Saudi Arabia nuclear tech selling, golf cheating, time magazine cover faking, El Paso mass shooter inspiring, paying legal bills for roughing up protestors promising, killed soldier “knew what he signed up for” saying, pardon abusing, scumbag.Sources:• ⁠lying, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/12/16/president-trump-has-made-false-or-misleading-claims-over-days/• ⁠unqualified, https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/11/13587532/donald-trump-no-experience• ⁠draft dodging, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2018/12/27/trump-vietnam-war-bone-spur-diagnosis/2420475002/• ⁠gold star family disrespecting, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/31/us/politics/donald-trump-khizr-khan-wife-ghazala.html• ⁠POW attacking, https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/07/18/424169549/trump-lashes-out-at-mccain-i-like-people-who-werent-captured• ⁠US General insulting, https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/01/17/trump-blasted-top-military-generals-as-a-bunch-of-dopes-and-babies-according-to-new-book/• ⁠racist, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/06/trump-racism-comments/588067/• ⁠sexist, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-50563106• ⁠vulgar, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/08/us/donald-trump-tape-transcript.html• ⁠confirmed sexual assaulting, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/08/us/donald-trump-tape-transcript.html• ⁠trillion dollars to the rich tax cutting, https://budget.house.gov/publications/publication/gop-tax-law-showers-benefits-wealthy-and-large-corporations-while• ⁠own daughter creeping, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/donald-trump-ivanka-trump-creepiest-most-unsettling-comments-a-roundup-a7353876.html• ⁠wife cheating with a pornstar after birth of son and paying her off to influence a presidential election, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-43334326• ⁠$413 million dollar inheritance getting, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/10/04/the-new-york-times-revealed-how-fred-trump-funneled-413-million-to-his-son-donald-will-that-change-american-opinion/• ⁠teen pageant dressing room invading, https://www.politifact.com/wisconsin/article/2016/oct/18/allegations-about-donald-trump-and-miss-teen-usa-c/• ⁠baby and mother separating, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/14/the-weekly/trump-immigration-border-separation-family.html• ⁠breast feeding mother shaming, https://www.parents.com/baby/all-about-babies/fighting-words-donald-trump-called-a-breastfeeding-mom-disgusting/• ⁠fat-shaming while being fat, http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/08/trump-fat-shames-own-supporter-frank-dawson-new-hampshire-rally.html• ⁠17 women accusing him of sexual assaulting, https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/list-trumps-accusers-allegations-sexual-misconduct/story?id=51956410• ⁠accusers are not attractive enough for him to assault implying, https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/10/donald-trump-insults-accusers-ugly• ⁠university student defrauding, https://abcnews.go.com/US/judge-finalizes-25-million-settlement-victims-donald-trumps/story?id=54347237• ⁠bankrupt casino causing, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2016/live-updates/general-election/real-time-fact-checking-and-analysis-of-the-first-presidential-debate/fact-check-has-trump-declared-bankruptcy-four-or-six-times/• ⁠kids cancer charity stealing, https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2019/12/23/best-stories-of-the-decade-how-donald-trump-shifted-kids-cancer-charity-money-into-his-business/• ⁠taped detailed accusation of rape of a minor having, https://www.snopes.com/news/2016/06/23/donald-trump-rape-lawsuit/• ⁠wife-beating, https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/10/24/documenting-trumps-abuse-of-women• ⁠popular vote losing, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/donald-trump-lost-popular-vote-hillary-clinton-us-election-president-history-a7470116.html• ⁠anti-vaxxing, https://mobile.twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/449525268529815552?lang=en• ⁠Christianity-faking, https://www.kentucky.com/opinion/op-ed/article216494035.html• ⁠publicist impersonating, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/05/13/donald-trump-people-magazine-washington/84333614/• ⁠tax dodging, https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/10/2/17929774/donald-trump-tax-evasion-fred-trump-new-york-times• ⁠friends’ wives pursuing, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-sex-friends-wives-are-book-claims-true-michael-wolff-fire-fury-white-house-bannon-a8142011.html• ⁠impeached, https://time.com/5552679/impeached-presidents/• ⁠foreign aid bribing, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49800181• ⁠1/3 of the presidency golf playing, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/12/30/nearly-third-days-hes-been-president-trumps-visited-trump-branded-property/• ⁠free press assaulting, https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/10/29/18037894/donald-trump-twitter-media-enemy-pittsburgh• ⁠Hannity coordinating, https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/emmaloop/sean-hannity-trump-allies-mueller-memos-fox-news• ⁠Cambridge Analytica using, https://www.wired.com/story/what-did-cambridge-analytica-really-do-for-trumps-campaign/• ⁠Ivanka is a “piece of ass” approving, https://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/trump-ivanka-piece-of-ass-howard-stern-229376• ⁠loan application asset inflating, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/27/business/donald-trump-buffalo-bills-deutsche-bank.html• ⁠historically low polling, https://theweek.com/speedreads/890683/trumps-approval-rating-pace-lowest-ever-among-independents-gallup-poll-shows• ⁠college achievement faking, https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherrim/2019/02/28/heres-why-donald-trump-doesnt-want-anyone-to-know-his-grades-or-sat-scores/• ⁠unqualified judge appointing, https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/confirmation-expected-for-another-unqualified-trump-judge-pick• ⁠unqualified cabinet member appointing, https://www.latimes.com/local/education/la-me-eli-broad-opposes-devos-20170201-story.html
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arcticdementor · 5 years
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What are the Leading Indicators for Civil War? . For all the speculation surrounding a potential civil war in the US, there has been little or no agreement on how likely that is, what it would look like, or even how we’d know we’re in one. As always i have to recommend the podcast It Could Happen Here as the best long form exploration of the possibility, but even that podcast, despite going through recent civil wars (Ukraine, Syria, North Ireland) and laying out the most plausible scenarios (100s of militias and insurgency groups no one can keep track of, spiralling lack of authority and lots of small violent feuds, critical breakdown in supply chains), however even that take just kinda hand waves at possibilities, and doesn’t present a good theory of what causes escalations instead of heated events that flame out, and equally doesn’t offer any markers of what would indicate the stage of war your in ( thousands of people die violently every year in the war on drugs,but that doesn’t seem like a civil war which could bring down the us gov?) So what are the leading indicators and why are they predictive of further escalations? My list: . 1. Political Murder Kill 1 man, terrify 10,000. ~Sun Tzu The most consistent aspect of Civil Wars (as opposed to coups, protests, reforms, peaceable revolutions) is Political Murder. Now i here you say “well Obviously Mr. Revolt. killing and fighting is a hallmark of war, why is this of interest?” But note I didn’t say killing or fighting, I said MURDER. As far as i can tell the vast majority of fights and conflicts in history, have involved very little fighting or conflict. Knife-fights and gunfights are dangerous whereas surprising an unarmed and unsuspecting individual or group of your enemies or their associates is quite easy, low risk, and after you’ve murdered them in some horrifying way far more decisive in hurting the enemy than some indecisive street battle or skirmish. The most feared and prolific “fighters” in all the various wars, conflicts, terrors, insurgencies, and troubles of the twentieth century rarely or never engaged with an enemy that would shoot back, and, if they did ever get in a shootout with an armed force of the enemy, it was almost always the result of some information leak on their part and thus,more often than not, was the fight that killed them. Indeed even more than fighting, political murder is the most consistent aspect of civil war. A series of Bundy style standoffs could exchange ineffective fire with the feds and we probably wouldn’t call it a civil war, but if activists and their friends were consistently being found butchered on both sides of the political spectrum as the result of bushwackings and targeted assassinations, the reality of civil war would be almost undeniable. . 2. Fog of War In war truth is the first casualty. ~Aeschylus, the father of tragedy Contrasted with “lone wolf” attacks that often have much higher body counts where the perpetrator is apprehended or killed, even a single political murder can escalate a conflict vastly quicker since crucial information is unavailable. The Breivik attacks, Christchurch attack, El Paso and countless others did not precipitate major escalations because the perpetrators were killed or apprehended ie. the system worked (pretty much). Simply put conclusively knowing who the attacker was, what their motive was, and how much help they received (often little or none) diffused the situation following the attacks, Whereas While the attacks were ongoing and immediately after rumours of second shooters, multiple different affiliations of the shooters, and wider violence ran rampant. Simply put when the assailant gets away with it everybody is free to, and if they are close to the event: must (if only for their own safety), speculate as to the unknown perpetrator and their unknown motives. A madman, from the other-side, an organized conspiracy of an enemy faction, a false flag, an internal power struggle with the victims own organization, the possibilities are endless, and yet if one is politically exposed, even if just as a run of the mill activist or commentator, one has to adjust for all these possibilities less you accidentally involve yourself in a cycle of violence. This fear and paranoia being a hallmark of terrors and civil conflicts from revolutionary france to modern syria. Furthermore this paranoia eliminates the usual social and political costs of political murder and further escalation since “how do i know that socialist was killed by fascists instead of in a socialist power struggle”. Healthy societies unite against violence, unhealthy ones divide in to different politicized speculations, making this dynamic self reinforcing. . 3. The proliferation of Plausible and Limited Conspiracy Theories Yes, there is a conspiracy, in fact there are a great number of conspiracies that are all tripping each other up. And all of those conspiracies are run by paranoid fantasists and ham-fisted clowns. If you are on a list targeted by the CIA, you really have nothing to worry about. If however, you have a name similar to somebody on a list targeted by the CIA, then you are dead. ~Alan Moore We discussed conspiracy theories last week and I explained what it was like having parents who believe in Conspiracy Theories and what it was like being raised to believe them. See : My Experience with Conspiracy Theories To briefly summarize: the average conspiracy theory in the modern age is vastly implausible and extremely overreaching relative to the evidence, specifically because it’s main function is justifying resentments and reinforcing moral narratives (as opposed to solving a mystery) “Bush did 9/11 so all these wars are unnecessary and on false pretences, and we can see the military industrial complex is evil needs to be destroyed ” or “ the only reason the elites have more power and money than us is they where willing to join the evil peadophile networks.” Whereas in a civil conflict everybody believes in conspiracy theories that are vastly more plausible and limited. That the disappeared Donnelleys where murdered by the Royal Ulster Constabulary because they knew too much, might reinforce a moral narrative, but its also a possibility that a good rationalist would give a greater than 10% chance of. Furthermore this conspiracy is limited, ie. it could be proven true if just 5 ordinary RUC cops decided to do it of their own initiative and their superiors didn’t know or had only suspicions. Contrast a Traditional conspiracy theory: “the Donnelleys disappeared because Queen Elizabeth wanted them for her Rape dungeon” which would require a vast overarching conspiracy running all of society, and its clear we’re dealing with a vastly different psychology. If the conspiracy is that the Donnelleys disappeared for Queen Lizy’s sick kicks,there’s not much to be done, If the conspiracy is the Donnellys were murdered by the RUC then a otherwise uninvolved friend or relative has a good incentive to seek revenge, thus starting a round of conspiracies about those revenge killings: was it the IRA? Note: Here i think the Conspiracy theories around Epstein’s death are acting as a kinda rosetta stone for how Overreaching, delusional (relatively peaceful) conspiracy theories evolve into plausible, sane (trust destroying) conspiracy theories. 4. Effective Intimidation Men do not rest content with parrying the attacks of a superior, but often strike the first blow to prevent the attack being made. ~Thucydides The most effective terrorist campaign in my lifetime, has been the campaign against humorist and satirists regarding the prophet Mohamed. It was not the bloodiest terror campaign, nor was it the most geopolitically significant, but it was the one that most achieved its desired effect. Simply put if you live in the west today you are ruled by two separate legal systems now, their is the classic legal system which deals with all the day to day laws from jaywalking to murder, with all its attendant checks, processes, appeals, and punishments, and then their is a separate system with no checks, processes or appeals, that just as sure as the other legal system will find you and punish you if you publish anything mocking Mohamed in traditional media. Indeed this separate system is so prolific that every publisher, broadcaster, campaign and company will take every pain to make sure they do not fall afoul of this separate system and indeed even the traditional legal system will try to prevent it in their capacity of keeping the peace. There is a reason the artistic embodiments of law and justice are always pictured wielding a sword and if you wield the sword prolifically enough, you can determine what the law is. Obviously this is a highly desirable position for any ideologue who wants to set the law. The various campus and street brawls we’ve experienced across america are less than successful examples of this. Violent left activists try to establish a functional law about what kind of speech will be allowed on campus or other left wing spaces such as Portland (or indeed anywhere in America if the speech is heinous enough) through tactics such as screaming, pepper-spraying, or beating speakers (Charles Murray and others being examples) while right wing organizations try to establish absolutist free-speech norms (which have pretty much never existed anywhere (a lone Nazi speaking his mind in a bar could almost always expect his ass to be kicked)) by preemptively arming up and showing up prepared to fight any taker (see proud boys and based stick man). Both are attempts to establish defacto rules far beyond what any police department would enforce. And each side needs to keep perpetuating the violence lest the other side win their rule. If the proud boys stop showing up Antifa gets a veto on any small or independent speaker. Whereas if Antifa stops showing then Hitler himself could start a weekend lecture series on campus at Berkley, and Americas norms around the unacceptability of Fascism/the far right would quickly erode. Obviously this extends to vastly more rules you can establish: don’t snitch, don’t help lost British soldiers, don’t charge members of the militia for their purchases, don’t publish stories we don’t like, dont work for these government departments, ect. Are all example of rules that can be enforced through intimidation and all of them open up new battlefields as various sides must react to try and enforce them. If a North Ireland prison Guard gets killed (the rule: don’t work for the prison service), then the guards themselves might brutalize an inmate suspected of being connected or bushwhack family members of associated inmates to try and establish their own rule (don’t fuck with the prison staff). Again the incentive to escalate and produce more such dynamics is obvious.
KulakRevolt
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opedguy · 2 years
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White House Information War
LOS ANGELES (OnlineColumnist.com), March 30, 2022.--Saying that 69-year-old Russian President Vladimir Putin is misled by his generals about the poor performance in Ukraine, U.S. intel officials say that Russian officials are afraid to tell him the truth.  If that’s not the kettle calling the pot black then what is?  Biden too doesn’t like to get negative feedback from anyone, let alone his generals.  When he was told that his gaffe in Warsaw saying Russian President Vladimir Putin must leave office, was just one example. Instead of taking constructive feedback from just about everyone foreign and domestic, Biden said he stands by his remarks that Putin must go.  Biden doesn’t see how that undermines the Ukraine War effort, certainly exposing for all to see the U.S. mission in Ukraine.  Yet the White House thinks it’s winning the propaganda battle with the Kremlin, saying Putin’s angry with his generals over the lack of progress on the ground in Ukraine.
White House Communication Director Kate Bedingfield said Putin is not only misled about the war progress but “how the Russian economy is being crippled by sanctions because, again, his senior advisers are too afraid to tell him the truth.”  Bedingfield’s the last one to be trusted knowing she’s fighting the propaganda war with the Kremlin.  Bedingfield would have the world believe that Putin has done no damage in Ukraine, when, in fact, he’s already reduced much of the country to rubble.  Bedingfield’s the first to say how well Ukraine has done to resist Putin’s assault.  With nearly 5 million citizens displaced to neighboring countries and much of Ukraine’s infrastructure destroyed, Bedingfield says Putin, not Ukraine, is not meeting its military objectives.  White House officials think making intel public helps push Putin to end his war in Ukraine.
U.S. officials claim the war has “ground to a bloody stalemate,” despite the widespread destruction done by Putin’s air superiority.  U.S. officials want Putin to know that he’s losing the war, forcing him to throw in the towel.  But when White House officials admit they’ve declassified intel on the war’s progress but only from anonymous sources, it tells the whole story. “What it does is underscore that this has been a strategic blunder for Russia,” Bedingfield staid about the latest intel.  “But I’m not going characterize how . . . how Vladimir Putin might be think about this,” Bedingfield said, knowing that whatever she says would be dismissed as White House propaganda.  Secretary of State Antony Blinken 59, said that Putin’s underlings can’t speak to the boss with any candor.  How did it go for Blinken when he told Joe last Friday that his incendiary rhetoric about Putin wasn’t helpful?
Information warfare goes both ways, grossly overestimating Russian military casualties, some as high as 15,000.  Kremlin officials say they’ve lost under 2,000 soldiers in 35 days of battle, echoing the kind of distortions that goes on both sides.  Where the true picture stands is anyone’s guess.  Believing that the White House is more truthful about the war’s progress is wishful thinking.  “One of the Achilles’ Heels of autocracies is that you don’t have people in those systems that speak truth to power or have the ability to speak truth to power, and I think that’s what we’re seeing in Russia,” Blinken told reporters in Algiers.  Blinken has been one of the most anti-Russia White House critics, accusing Moscow from Day One of human rights abuses, demanding that Putin release 45-year-old dissident Alexi Navalny from prison, knowing how that would antagonize Putin.
When you listen to Bedington and Blinken, they sound like real neophytes fighting a propaganda battle, not realizing that less-is-more.  Giving declassified intel does nothing to convince the enemy of anything.  “We need peace, and its will be achieve it only when we have a strong position on the battlefield.  Our morale is firm, there is enough determination , but we need your immediate support,” Zelensky reportedly told Biden.  Zelensky has been asking for more fighter jets, something that Poland, U.S. and other NATO countries haven’t figured out.  Zelesnky thinks that only one more weapon system, only more fighter jets, only one more antiaircraft weapon would turn the tide in Ukraine’s direction.  Zelensky pretends that morale is high in a country that’s been bombed into rubble by Putin’s air force.  Zelensky needs to stop talking about weapons and start talking about a ceasefire.
As long a Biden continues to throw more cash at Zelensky, the war will trundles on, creating more destruction and carnage for Ukraine.  Whether Biden wants to topple Putin or not, it’s not fair to Ukraine to fight a proxy war with the Russian Federation at the expense of Ukraine’s infrastructure.  Zelensky is kidding himself that all he needs is more weapons, when, what he really needs is a ceasefire agreement. Biden let Putin know he wants him out of the Kremlin, something Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said is up to Russian voters not Biden. Whatever information warfare the U.S. uses, it’s not making much difference. Putin continues to bomb Ukraine into submission, despite the Pentagon’s statements about how he’s losing the ground war.  Biden and Zelensky have their best opportunity to end the destruction and carnage in Instanbul, not by giving Ukraine more lethal weapons.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
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snowflake-risotto · 6 years
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My Eurovision 2018 top 42 + Australia - Before I fork out $29.99 for the digital downloads
With added opinions because like to see people have reasons as to why they rank things that way practicing what I preach and I’m an asshole. I’m sorry if I offend any of you in advance.
Australia - I’m not gonna add my own country because that’s biased. I am a little disappointed. Jessica Mauboy is capable of bringing something spectacular, but we offer the biggest of all Eurovision clichés (love love peace peace). I like it, but I don’t love it. 
42 - San Marino - Who would’ve thought that even without Ralph Seigels help, this would happen
41 - Croatia - It’s not memorable enough
40 - Romania - see #41
39 - Switzerland - See #41 and #40
38 - Slovenia - The chorus is a bit of a letdown 
37 - Georgia - It might be the language barrier, but I don’t feel anything from it that I feel with other songs in languages I don’t speak
36 - Germany - My prediction is that this will be the victim of the big 5 syndrome (the country that has finished last in recent years, has been a member of the big 5)
35 - Norway - Not really my taste, sorry
34 - Israel - Not really my taste, sorry
33 - Latvia - It’s a little bit on the jarring side in some places
32 - Czech Republic - Everybody is saying Jason Derulo “Talk Dirty to Me,” I’m seeing that white guy that sung/rapped? “Informer”
31 - Armenia - It becomes really good near the end
30 - Poland - Reminds me of the songs Coca-Cola uses for their ads
29 - Russia - About on par with “Flame is Burning”
28 - Hungary - 2018′s angsty anthem. I like the middle 2 quarters of the song the most. The first bit is ok, but the end is too screamo for me
27 - Spain - A bit too sickly sweet for my liking
26 - Ireland - Eurovision doesn’t feel like the right environment for this sound. It will pale in comparison to power ballads and pop jams
25 - Iceland - It’s a nice song but I feel that’s all it is, just nice
24 - Finland - I honestly can't tell the difference between this and Azerbaijan and at this point, I’m too afraid to ask 
23 - Azerbaijan - I honestly can't tell the difference between this and Finland and at this point, I’m too afraid to ask 
22 - Cyprus - It’s a definite ear worm and it will certainly be a hit with people who only listen to the songs on the night
21 - Sweden - It’s so slick and smooth that I’m confused as to whether I genuinely like it or Sweden are tricking me into liking it
20 - UK - I like it, but it’s nothing special
19 - Malta - It’s missing something I can’t put my finger on. There was so much promise that when you finish listening to it you feel robbed
18 - Estonia - Given operas track record in Eurovision, I will be surprised if this wins (or makes the top 3), but it has grown on me
17 - Belgium - I can see why people put this as their favourite, but I like other songs better
16 - Netherlands - I loved it when it was first released, but it kinda fizzled thereafter. Still really like it though, but in the coming weeks it could take a further downward trajectory
15 - Ukraine - At some points I can’t understand what he is singing, but I don’t really think that matters if the melody and the voice are great
14 - Denmark - I honestly didn’t expect to like this, but I do. I love his singing accent
13 - Bulgaria - Those harmonies are A+++. Jeez Bulgaria, when did you get so good
12 - Moldova - I love it, not even guilty about it
11 - Albania - I still love it which is a big achievement for a Eurovision song released so early
10 (1 PT) - Montenegro - To all the youtube Eurovision fans, firstly: how dare y’all place this so low
9 (2 PTS) - Greece - Dear Greece, keep sending things in Greek. This is by far their best entry in a long time
8 (3 PTS) - Serbia - The Balkans are finally back to doing what they do best: dope world music. I’ve missed it
7 (4 PTS) - Lithuania - My favourite Baltic entry this year. It’s soft without being boring
6 (5 PTS) - FYR Macedonia - One of My favourite pre-choruses and choruses this year
5 (6 PTS) - France - “Je suis tous ces enfants que la mer a pris” gets me every time like FUCK ... this was based on a true story. Mercy represents all the children that the sea has taken away ... I’m not crying ... you are
4 (7 PTS) - Portugal - My only wish is that Isaura would harmonise with Clàudia for longer, or closer to the end of the song
3 (8 PTS) - Austria - So help me god if this does not qualify. I love Cesárs voice, and the choir adds a dimension. 
2 (10 PTS) - Belarus - This list is only based on the official Youtube Eurovision playlist. Other factors (revamp, live performances) would have placed this lower
1 (12 PTS) - Italy - I love everything about this; the voices, the melody, the lyrics, the chemistry between the two. I love them especially Ermal. I can’t fault this. To me, it’s perfect.
I will make another top 42 when I have the CD in some form. The CD contains the versions closest to what are going to be sung in the contest. CD’s also have the added advantage of being audio only, meaning we won’t be confusing good looks for a good song.
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xtruss · 4 years
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PEPE ESCOBAR: MAGA Misses the Eurasia Train!
While China and Russia solidify their economic and political alliance, the U.S. is missing an historic chance to join a multilateral world, clinging instead to military empire, argues Pepe Escobar.
By Pepe Escobar, in Milan, Italy
February 4, 2019
We should know by now that the heart of the 21stCentury Great Game is the myriad layers of the battle between the United States and the partnership of Russia and China.
Even the U.S. National Defense Strategy says so: “The central challenge to U.S. prosperity and security is the reemergence of long-term, strategic competition by … revisionist powers.” The recently published assessment on U.S. defense implications of China’s global expansion says so too.
The clash will frame the emergence of a possibly new, post-ideological, strategic world order amidst an extremely volatile unpredictability in which peace is war and an accident may spark a nuclear confrontation.
The U.S. vs. Russia and China will keep challenging the West’s obsession in deriding “illiberalism,” a fearful, rhetorical exercise that equates Russian democracy with China’s one party rule, Iran’s demo-theocracy and Turkey’s neo-Ottoman revival.
It’s immaterial that Russia’s economy is one-tenth of China’s. From boosting trade that bypasses the U.S. dollar, to increasing joint military exercises, the Russia-China symbiosis is poised to advance beyond political and ideological affinities.
China badly needs Russian know-how in its military industry. Beijing will turn this knowledge into plenty of dual use, civilian-military innovations.
The long game indicates Russia and China will break down language and cultural barriers to lead Eurasian integration against American economic hegemony backed by military might.
One could say the Eurasian century is already upon us. The era of the West shaping the world at will (a mere blip of history) is already over. This is despite Western elite denials and fulminations against the so-called “morally reprehensible,” “forces of instability” and “existential threats.”
Standard Chartered, the British financial services company, using a mix of purchasing power exchange rates and GDP growth, has projected that the top five economies in 2030 will be China, the U.S., India, Japan and Russia. These will be followed by Germany, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey and the UK. Asia will extend its middle class as they are slowly killed off across the West.
Hop on the Trans-Eurasia Express
A case can be made that Beijing’s elites are fascinated at how Russia, in less than two decades, has returned to semi-superpower status after the devastation of the Yeltsin years.
That happened to a large extent due to science and technology. The most graphic example is the unmatched, state-of-the-art weaponry unveiled by President Vladimir Putin in his March 1, 2018 speech.
In practice, Russia and China will be advancing the alignment of China’s New Silk Roads, or Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with Russia’s Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU).
There’s ample potential for a Trans-Eurasia Express network of land and maritime transport corridors to be up and running by the middle of next decade, including, for instance, road and railway bridges connecting China with Russia across the Heilongjiang River.
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Heilongjiang or Armur river separating China and Russia. (Wikimedia)
Following serious trilateral talks involving Russia, India and Iran last November, closer attention is being paid to the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC), a 7,200-km long lane mixing sea and rail routes essentially linking the Indian Ocean with the Persian Gulf through Iran and Russia and further on down the road, to Europe.
Imagine cargo transiting from all over India to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, then overland to Bandar Anzali, an Iranian port on the Caspian Sea, and then on to the Russian southern port of Astrakhan, and after that to Europe by rail. From New Delhi’s point of view, that means shipping costs reduced by up to 40 percent, and Mumbai-to-Moscow in only 20 days.
Down the line, INSTC will merge with BRI – as in Chinese-led corridors linked with the India-Iran-Russia route into a global transport network.
This is happening just as Japan is looking at the Trans-Siberian Railway – which will be upgraded throughout the next decade – to improve its connections with Russia, China and the Koreas. Japan is now a top investor in Russia and at the same time very much interested in a Korea peace deal. That would free Tokyo from massive defense spending conditioned by Washington’s rules. The EAEU free trade agreements with ASEAN can be added to that.
Especially over these past four years, Russia has also learned how to attract Chinese investment and wealth, aware that Beijing’s system mass-produces virtually everything and knows how to market it globally, while Moscow needs to fight every block in the book dreamed up by Washington.
The Huawei-Venezuela “Axis of Evil”
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Metal Truss Railroad Bridge (Kama River, near Perm city). Early color photograph from Russia, created by Sergei Mikhailovich Prokudin-Gorskii as part of his work to document the Russian Empire from 1909 to 1915. (Wikimedia)
While Washington remains a bipartisan prisoner to the Russophobic Platonic cave – where Cold War shadows on the wall are taken as reality – MAGA is missing the train to Eurasia.
A many-headed hydra, MAGA, stripped to the bone, could be read as a non-ideological antidote to the Empire’s global adventurism. Trump, in his non-strategic, shambolic way, proposed at least in theory the return to a social contract in the U.S. MAGA in theory would translate into jobs, opportunities for small businesses, low taxes and no more foreign wars.
It’s nostalgia for the 1950s and 60s before the Vietnam quagmire and before “Made in the USA” was slowly and deliberately dismantled. What’s left are tens of trillions of national debt; a quadrillion in derivatives; the Deep State running amok; and a lot of pumped up fear of evil Russians, devious Chinese, Persian mullahs, the troika of tyranny, the Belt and Road, Huawei, and illegal aliens.
More than a Hobbesian “war of all against all” or carping about the “Western rules-based system” being under attack, the fear is actually of the strategic challenge posed by Russia and China, which seeks a return to rule by international law.
MAGA would thrive if hitched to a ride on the Eurasia integration train: more jobs and more business opportunities instead of more foreign wars. Yet MAGA won’t happen – to a large extent because what really makes Trump tick is his policy of energy dominance to decisively interfere with Russia and China’s development.
The Pentagon and the “intel community” pushed the Trump administration to go after Huawei, branded as a nest of spies, while pressuring key allies Germany, Japan and Italy to follow. Germany and Japan permit the U.S. to control the key nodes in the extremities of Eurasia. Italy is essentially a large NATO base.
The U.S. Department of Justice requested the extradition of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou from Canada last Tuesday, adding a notch to the Trump administration’s geopolitical tactic of “blunt force trauma.”
Add to it that Huawei – based in Shenzhen and owned by its workers as shareholders – is killing Apple across Asia and in most latitudes across the Global South. The real the battle is over 5G, in which China aims to upstage the U.S., while upgrading capacity and production quality.
The digital economy in China is already larger than the GDP of France or the UK. It’s based on the BATX companies (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi), Didi (the Chinese Uber), e-commerce giant JD.com and Huawei. These Big Seven are a state within a civilization – an ecosystem they’ve constructed themselves, investing fortunes in big data, artificial intelligence (AI) and the internet. American giants – Facebook, Instagram, Twitter and Google – are absent from this enormous market.
Moreover, Huawei’s sophisticated encryption system in telecom equipment prevents interception by the NSA. That helps account for its extreme popularity all across the Global South, in contrast to the Five Eyes (U.S., UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand) electronic espionage network.
The economic war on Huawei is also directly connected to the expansion of BRI across 70 Asian, European and African nations, constituting a Eurasia-wide network of commerce, investment and infrastructure able to turn geopolitical and geo-economic relations, as we know them, upside down.
Greater Eurasia Beckons
Whatever China does won’t alter the Deep State’s obsession about “an aggression against our vital interests,” as stated by the National Defense Strategy. The dominant Pentagon narrative in years to come will be about China “intending to impose, in the short term, its hegemony in the Indo-Pacific region, and catch the United States off-guard in order to achieve future global pre-eminence.” This is mixed with a belief that Russia wants to “crush NATO” and “sabotage the democratic process in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine.”
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The Karakoram Highway connecting Pakistan and China, sometimes referred to as the English Wonder of the World. (Wikimedia)
During my recent travels along the northern part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), I saw once again how China is upgrading highways, building dams, railways and bridges that are useful not only for its own economic expansion but also for its neighbors’ development. Compare it to U.S. wars – as in Iraq and Libya – where dams, railways and bridges are destroyed.
Russian diplomacy is all but winning the New Cold War — as diagnosed by Prof. Stephen Cohen in his latest book, War with Russia: From Putin and Ukraine to Trump and Russiagate.
Moscow mixes serious warnings with diverse strategies, such as resurrecting the South Stream gas pipeline to supply Europe as an extension of Turk Stream after the Trump administration also furiously opposed the Nord Stream 2 pipeline with sanctions on Russia. Meanwhile, Moscow ramps up energy exports to China.
The advance of the Belt and Road Initiative is linked to Russian security and energy exports, including the Northern Sea Route, as an alternative future transportation corridor to Central Asia. Russia emerges then as the top security guarantee for Eurasian trade and economic integration.
Last month in Moscow, I discussed Greater Eurasia– by now established as the overarching concept of Russian foreign policy – with top Russian analysts. They told me Putin is on board. He referred to Eurasia recently as “not a chessboard or a geopolitical playground, but our peaceful and prosperous home.”
Needless to say, U.S. think tanks dismiss the idea as “abortive”. They ignore Prof. Sergey Karaganov, who as early as mid-2017 was arguing that Greater Eurasia could serve as a platform for “a trilateral dialogue on global problems and international strategic stability between Russia, the United States and China.”
As much as the Beltway may refuse it, “The center of gravity of global trade is now shifting from the high seas toward the vast continental interior of Eurasia.”
Beijing Skirts the Dollar
Beijing is realizing it can’t meet its geo-economic goals on energy, security, and trade without bypassing the U.S. dollar.
According to the IMF, 62 percent of global central bank reserves were still held in U.S. dollars by the second quarter of 2018. Around 43 per cent of international transactions on SWIFT are still in U.S. dollars. Even as China, in 2018, was the single largest contributor to global GDP growth, at 27.2 percent, the yuan still only accounts for 1 percent of international payments, and 1.8 per cent of all reserve assets held by central banks.
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The author at the Khunjerab pass, China-Pak border, on New Silk Road overdrive.
It takes time, but change is on the way. China’s cross-border payment network for yuan transactions was launched less than four years ago. Integration between the Russian Mir payment system and Chinese Union Pay appears inevitable.
Bye Bye Drs. K and Zbig
Russia and China are developing the ultimate nightmare for those former shamans of U.S. foreign policy, Henry Kissinger and the late Zbigniew “Grand Chessboard” Brzezinski.
Back in 1972 Kissinger was the mastermind – with logistical help from Pakistan – of the Nixon moment in China. That was classic Divide and Rule, separating China from the USSR. Two years ago, before Trump’s inauguration, Dr. K’s advice dispensed at Trump Tower meetings consisted of a modified Divide and Rule: the seduction of Russia to contain China.
The Kissinger doctrine rules that, geopolitically, the U.S. is just “an island off the shores of the large landmass of Eurasia.” Domination “by a single power of either of Eurasia’s two principal spheres – Europe or Asia – remains a good definition of strategic danger for America, Cold War or no Cold War,” as Kissinger said. “For such a grouping would have the capacity to outstrip America economically and, in the end, militarily.”
The Zbig doctrine ran along similar lines. The objectives were to prevent collusion and maintain security among the EU-NATO vassals; keep tributaries pliant; keep the barbarians (a.k.a. Russians and allies) from coming together; most of all prevent the emergence of a hostile coalition (as in today’s Russia-China alliance) capable of challenging U.S. hegemony; and submit Germany, Russia, Japan, Iran, and China to permanent Divide and Rule.
Thus the despair of the current National Security Strategy, forecasting China displacing the United States “to achieve global preeminence in the future,” through BRI’s supra-continental reach.
The “policy” to counteract such “threats” is sanctions, sanctions, and more unilateral sanctions, coupled with an inflation of absurd notions peddled across the Beltway – such as that Russia is aiding and abetting the re-conquest of the Arab world by Persia. Also that Beijing will ditch the “paper tiger” “Made in China 2025” plan for its major upgrade in global, high-tech manufacturing just because Trump hates it.
Once in a blue moon a U.S. report actually gets it right, such as in Beijing speeding up an array of BRI projects; as a modified Sun Tzu tactic deployed by President Xi Jinping.
At the June 2016 Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Professor Xiang Lanxin, director of the Centre of One Belt and One Road Studies at the China National Institute for SCO International Exchange and Judicial Cooperation, defined BRI as an avenue to a “post-Westphalian world.” The journey is just beginning; a new geopolitical and economic era is at hand. And the U.S. is being left behind at the station.
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Pepe Escobar, a veteran Brazilian journalist, is the correspondent-at-large for Hong Kong-based Asia Times. His latest book is 2030.
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scoutshonor56 · 5 years
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The Uninvited Guest
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Have you ever had an uninvited guest?  You know, the one who promises to help around the house, get along with the wife and kids, stay in the background, kick in some money for food and bills, just until he finds a job and moves out in a timely fashion…
 …and then does none of the above?  Now, 8 months later, the wife is one more “incident” away from filing for divorce, your kids are hardly ever home, and the funds are getting so lean you’re pulling extra hours at work to compensate (and avoid homelife) and even brown-bagging it for lunch.  I know some countries that probably feel that way - it certainly reminds me of our relationship with the Middle East.
 As I watched American troops withdrawing from Syria last week, being pelted with rocks and potatoes, angry mobs of Kurds shaking their fists and holding up signs, I had nothing but shame for my country; shame and anger.  Yup, shocking even those in his own party and members of his cabinet advisors, our reality-challenged Moron in Chief announced that he was bailing on strategic ally, the Ukraine, in his fairy tale effort to spin his own story and “Bring our troops home!”  
 Oh BOY, that phrase has such a positive ring to it! It smells of mission accomplished, implying some sort of victory! Tears and hugs, excited dogs, welcome home parties, and a return to mom’s Sunday beef stew and apple pie with the family!
 Whooo-WEE did that one push the bullshit meter needle into the red; all we’re doing is moving the tokens around the board, and not very far at that.  They are already being re-deployed two steps over, primarily back to Iraq.  This occupation - let’s call it what it is - has become a marathon game of insanity and blood, where there is no end and everybody loses.  It’s an open scrum played on a dangerous field of rock and sand with no rules, no boundaries, and goal posts that were torn down long ago - just make shit up as you go along.
 I know it’s been a long time, so it’s understandably easy to forget, but the invasion of Afghanistan began on October 7, 2001, and soon expanded into Iraq on March 19, 2003.  Meaning in two short years, we will have reached the twenty-year mark, the longest war by far in America’s relatively short history. There are teenagers today who have known nothing but this occupational war.  It has literally become part of our national fabric, background static in our everyday lives; and like an ever-present mild tinnitus ring in your ear, you soon learn to live with it, tune it out.  Put a WE SUPPORT OUR TROOPS bumper sticker on your car and carry on with your day, feeling secure that you’ve done your part.  
 It’s filler for the media when they run short of something more “interesting” to prattle on about, something more eye-grabbing!  This war is sooo old news – it has no cute, fuzzy animals doing funny things, not even any chesty cleavage for God’s sake!  And where are the celebrities, the Hollywood scandals!?  Oh never mind, switch the channel to “America’s Got Talent”, or “Dancing With the Stars”, or “The Voice”…
 Again I ask myself, why is it that America, in all it’s nationalistic hubris and arrogance, simply can’t imagine the horror and hatred generated by military occupation of one’s own country?  What if it was us that had M2 Bradley fighting vehicles and Humvees patrolling our streets, troops banging down our doors, searching our homes, families rounded up in our streets and being harshly interrogated in a language we don’t even understand.  The ever-present “accidental” shootings and beatings, tempers flaring, hospitals, social events, and schools bombed, all justified with the flippant term “collateral damage” - OOPS!  
 Proud cities laid in ruin, jobs lost, and forced mass migrations pushing you here, there, and then back again as the bloody conflict moves from place to place, country to country.
 And I might add this is something we’ve had a lot of practice at over the last century; this is far from the first time we have flexed our misguided muscle in a world that we continue to see through our myopic American eyes.  “Surely everyone shares and envies our values and culture, right?”  Granted, there may have been a time not long ago when this was true, and the premise still holds some validity today, but no ride lasts forever, and this is a new century with a new game that is already seeing a lot of new players.  It’s time this country and its people came to grips with the reality that as of 2019, we comprise 4.27% of the world’s global population.    
Many might say, “Well yes, but we’re liberators, not aggressors…”
 To which I would say, let’s hold off on the flag waving until such results are achieved – until then, and after almost 20 years, the distinction to me appears rather blurry.  Or more to the point, let that call be made by the hapless bystanders and victims caught in the middle; let’s ask them if all the sorrow and rage is/was worth it.  Then let’s be honest and open with the American people and tally up our cost, and then put it on the scales of justification:
 According to a study at the Watson Institute at Brown University, the combined cost of this war in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq so far is just shy of, and soon approaching, 6 trillion dollars; that’s trillion.  
 According to this same study, there have been an approximate total of 500,000 people killed, and that’s not even including another half million deaths attributed to Syria, a bloody skirmish we joined in 2014.  How much of that can be directly attributed to our involvement?  Certainly debatable I grant you, but you can cut those numbers in half and they still represent a staggering figure.  
 According to Military.com a record total of 321 active duty members of the American military took their own lives just last year - that’s almost an average of one a day.  I’m no psychologist, and I’m sure there are a myriad of complex reasons, but quite frankly I don’t find it that difficult to understand the feeling of hopelessness and absurdity as you contemplate a life that you used to know fading from your day to day reality.  Home?  Home will never be the same for you, especially if you are one of the maimed and scarred…
 Maybe I’m being idealistic or naïve, or reading too much “fake news”, or simply not clear on how we keep score in such endeavors, but I’m not seeing much of anything on the plus column here yet…  
 Meanwhile, let’s imagine a parallel universe where America embraces a much more effective and sane method to “win the hearts and minds” of countries in turmoil, who are tipping on the brink of political and social chaos. What if we took a tiny chunk of those trillions of dollars, let’s say 5 or 10 billion, and built schools to educate, libraries, and hospitals.  Sent over professional and knowledgeable advisors instead of soldiers to help with a country’s medical needs, sustainable farming techniques, and developing new industries to generate a stable economy.  How do you think the rest of the world would judge us then?  How many nations would not only become willing allies, but maybe even emulate this humanitarian effort that recognizes we are all people sharing the same planet.
 Now for the bonus feature that enhances life here at home – we could utilize a couple of those trillions of dollars to rebuilt and modernize our roads and bridges, our water management systems, airports, and mass transit infrastructure.  I can’t tell you how many documentaries I’ve watched where American engineers grade all of these areas as antiquated and sorely in need of repair or replacement.  Did you know nearly 85% of our bridges were built before 1970?  Major airports around the world put ours to shame.  As our climate rapidly changes, flood management has now become a major concern here in America.  We could greatly expand and improve renewable energy, making it more cost efficient and readily available.  
 Improve our schools and pay our teachers a competitive wage.  Why would any country not treat the education of its citizenry as a top priority? Schools are the very soil in which we carefully nurture the human seeds of a globally successful and competitive society, critical today more than ever.  According to an international study done by the Pew Research Center in 2015, our educational system rates middle of the pack, or worse – how do you think that bodes for our future in a rapidly changing and developing world? 
And we would still have plenty left over to maintain a robust Defense Dept. 
 Instead, we continue to feed an insatiable Defense budget.  A gluttonous monster that holds sway over our politicians and lobbyists. Last year alone we spent more than the next seven countries combined, and yes, that includes China and Russia. Our military budget for 2020?  $738 billion, and it goes up every year.  
 While we now have a record breaking deficit of over 1 trillion dollars, military spending eats over half of our discretionary budget annually.  Why do we continue this madness of “might makes right”?  Pursuing peace through aggression and intimidation, carrying the biggest club?  According to The Wall St. Journal, America has more than 400 military bases around the world, located on every continent but Antarctica. As of this year we have an inventory of over 6,000 nuclear warheads – now that’s what a call a redundant backup…
 This is exactly the madness that retired five-star general and former president Dwight Eisenhower warned about in his farewell speech at the White House on Jan. 17, 1961. He called it “the military-industrial complex”, referring to the growing and dangerous union of our defense contractors and the armed forces.
 His successor to the highest office in the land, John F. Kennedy, once said:
"And we must face the fact that the United States is neither omnipotent or omniscient - that we are only six percent of the world's population - that we cannot impose our will upon the other ninety-four percent of mankind - that we cannot right every wrong or reverse each adversity - and that therefore there cannot be an American solution to every world problem."  
 Just maybe it’s time to try a little harder at getting along; to lead by example, instead of might.  America first?  Great, I’m all for it - let’s start in our own backyard, because it’s a mess.
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