#as sampling biases go?

[hauntoblogical]

I have seen three different "how much of this site is queer" polls this evening poking fun at staff's 1/4 assertion and not a single indication any of them understand statistics. One someone even replied "This might have some sampling bias" what do you mean might what do you mean SOME

#ghostbloggings #like cmon #queer people who make a lot of queer posts including polls like this... #are predominantly followed by queer people. #and queer people are much more likely to reblog said polls for their queer audience #as sampling biases go? #'99% of responders are x degrees of follower separation from the OP' #is really really clear-cut #oops i was not expecting this to get notes. to be clear I am voting in these polls #they can be fun just... tired of people acting like they Mean Anything

[kvothe-kingkiller]

#Im going to have a sample pool thats so biased #if any of the first options win im calling bs #no ‘none’ isnt an option because if ur none then u shouldnt be voting

[just-browsing1222]

Some TMA fans, going into TMP: It looks like the Powers in this universe are not based on fear, that's so cool!

Me, sipping my "pay attention to who is giving you the information and where it's presented" juice: They never have been?

#they're connected to strong emotions yes #but not necessarily fear #as long as it's a strong emotion that someone is indulging in a Power can be fed #sometimes those strong emotions are fear-based #we got a lot of those because that's what the institute was advertising for #that's sample bias #but that's just a theory #because I don't have enough non-sample-biased evidence #that's why people are only seeing this now. less sample bias with freddie #fear is still big there though I think #because fear can get very big very quickly and it's easy to indulge in #even through avoidence #bug wife guy was not afraid but was definitely being fed on #he indulged in his love to the point of having his core values corrupted #therefore the Corruption went num num on him #Murder club bros were not described as afraid #they were calculating and dedicated to a specific goal #therefore Hunt had a very nice breakfast #I can keep going #tma #tmagp #magpod #dread powers #fear entities #< that's a lie #but it's a very useful lie #indulgent entities? #I don't know

[bioethicists]

polls are fun + maybe i just have research poisoning but every time i see someone who appears to be earnestly trying to get generalizable data from their tumblr polls ("everyone reblog this but don't tag it or you'll ruin the sample!") i'm just like hhhh... no....

#like tumblr is inherently a bias sample to begin with + within that you are further biasing it to followers #which tend to exist in loose(ish) bubbles of types of ppl #nothing you generate from a tumblr poll is going to be meaningful info abt any group broader than #your followers + their immediate followers #but i see ppl trying to use it to like. get rates of gender/sexuality identities or gauge overall opinions of the POPULATION #just plz plz plz don't make me start seeing takes based on statistics you garnered from tumblr polls

[awordwasthebeginning]

.

.

.

#polls are fun #and i like those that are made for entirely fun and random things #berliner/pfannkuchen/krapfen discourse or the sexyman tournaments and such #but something about the ones trying to figure out tumblr's demographic in a pseudo-sociological attempt at statistics #rub me up the wrong way. and i'm not sure if it's because of the 'methodology' - #because their options have all the complexity of early 2000s h*gwarts house tests asking for your favourite colour #and because sampling by reblogs is a sure-fire way for your sample to be biased as fuck - #or because we've been going on and on about how tumblr's anonymity is good and you can be a clown here and an astrophysicist IRL #and now there's polls asking for your age and educational degree and specific flavour of queerness/sexuality/gender and... #i don't know. it makes me uncomfortable. i can't put the reason in better words. maybe i'm also just a mistrustful grandma. #loquor

[too-fond-to-be-fearful]

Been thinking recently about the goings-on with Duolingo & AI, and I do want to throw my two cents in, actually.

There are ways in which computers can help us with languages, certainly. They absolutely should not be the be-all and end-all, and particularly for any sort of professional work I am wholly in favour of actually employing qualified translators & interpreters, because there's a lot of important nuances to language and translation (e.g. context, ambiguity, implied meaning, authorial intent, target audience, etc.) that a computer generally does not handle well. But translation software has made casual communication across language barriers accessible to the average person, and that's something that is incredibly valuable to have, I think.

Duolingo, however, is not translation software. Duolingo's purpose is to teach languages. And I do not think you can be effectively taught a language by something that does not understand it itself; or rather, that does not go about comprehending and producing language in the way that a person would.

Whilst a language model might be able to use probability & statistics to put together an output that is grammatically correct and contextually appropriate, it lacks an understanding of why, beyond "statistically speaking, this element is likely to come next". There is no communicative intent behind the output it produces; its only goal is mimicking the input it has been trained on. And whilst that can produce some very natural-seeming output, it does not capture the reality of language use in the real world.

Because language is not just a set of probabilities - there are an infinite array of other factors at play. And we do not set out only to mimic what we have seen or heard; we intend to communicate with the wider world, using the tools we have available, and that might require deviating from the realm of the expected.

Often, the most probable output is not actually what you're likely to encounter in practice. Ungrammatical or contextually inappropriate utterances can be used for dramatic or humorous effect, for example; or nonstandard linguistic styles may be used to indicate one's relationship to the community those styles are associated with. Social and cultural context might be needed to understand a reference, or a linguistic feature might seem extraneous or confusing when removed from its original environment.

To put it briefly, even without knowing exactly how the human brain processes and produces language (which we certainly don't), it's readily apparent that boiling it down to a statistical model is entirely misrepresentative of the reality of language.

And thus a statistical model is unlikely to be able to comprehend and assist with many of the difficulties of learning a language.

A statistical model might identify that a learner misuses some vocabulary more often than others; what it may not notice is that the vocabulary in question are similar in form, or in their meaning in translation. It might register that you consistently struggle with a particular grammar form; but not identify that the root cause of the struggle is that a comparable grammatical structure in your native language is either radically different or nonexistent. It might note that you have trouble recalling a common saying, but not that you lack the cultural background needed to understand why it has that meaning. And so it can identify points of weakness; but it is incapable of addressing them effectively, because it does not understand how people think.

This is all without considering the consequences of only having a singular source of very formal, very rigid input to learn from, unable to account for linguistic variation due to social factors. Without considering the errors still apparent in the output of most language models, and the biases they are prone to reproducing. Without considering the source of their data, and the ethical considerations regarding where and how such a substantial sample was collected.

I understand that Duolingo wants to introduce more interactivity and adaptability to their courses (and, I suspect, to improve their bottom line). But I genuinely think that going about it in this way is more likely to hinder than to help, and wrongfully prioritises the convenience of AI over the quality and expertise that their existing translators and course designers bring.

#alright getting off my soapbox now #apologies if this is not particularly coherent - i was very much working through my thoughts as I was writing #but yeah tl;dr i am not huge on LLMs especially for language education and am deeply disappointed by the way things are trending #anyways if anyone knows any learning tools that are similarly structured i'd appreciate the recommendation #being able to easily do a little bit of study on a regular basis helped me a lot and i've yet to find anything similar #duolingo #language #language learning

[am-i-the-asshole-official]

AITA for creating and running a gimmick blog?

A few months back, I was bored and decided to hop on the trend of gimmick blogs. Since I don't have any crazy skills like identifying cars or programming bots, I settled on something I thought was extremely simple: correcting typos. So I'll sometimes reblog posts that have typos in them and comment with corrections. I would only do this on posts that were already lighthearted or joking in tone; I would never derail a serious post with it. And I really haven't used it very often - maybe a couple times a week at most, just when I happen to notice a good candidate.

Well, recently I was inundated out of nowhere by a bunch of anons telling me this was a horribly offensive idea. According to them, I was insulting dyslexic people, non-native English speakers, people without access to education, and a whole bunch of other groups with these unwarranted corrections.

I had honestly never considered that angle, and I've paused using that blog so I can try and reflect on it. But when I replied to a couple of the asks asking for a better explanation of exactly how this was harmful - because I genuinely wanted to be informed - the vast majority of the replies, with few exceptions, were obscenely rude to me. I've been called classist, ableist, racist, and a lot of much worse words I don't care to repeat here. I blocked exactly two people because they were being extremely hateful in my notes, while still trying to engage with the more polite ones, but of course I still got accused of blocking and ignoring everyone I disagreed with.

The truth is, I'm still not sure whether or not I disagree with any of them on the actual subject at hand; I just can't deal with people being bitter and rude and assuming the worst of me. I tried to make it clear that I was more than willing to listen and have a conversation in good faith, but that has proved impossible.

So now I'm really hurt and really, really confused. I'm not going to just blindly trust a small group of hypocrites on the internet who claim they're worried about people's feelings while at the same time trying to completely villainize me as if I don't have feelings too. But I also understand that they might have a point. Sadly, politeness is not always correlated with correctness.

I absolutely do not want to continue running this gimmick blog if it's truly harmful and offensive to people. I've just never encountered this take before, and it was delivered with such vitriol that I had to take a break from tumblr entirely just to recover my sanity. So I'm hoping a much broader and less biased sample size will help to clear this up. I know an AITA poll isn't perfect, but it should do.

If I get a YTA verdict, I will delete the typo-correcting blog and stop immediately, no questions asked. If not, I'll know I just angered an extremely vocal minority that has no idea how to deal with conflict.

AITA?

What are these acronyms?

#aita #am i the asshole

[ladyshinga]

One of the biggest reasons I loathe "AI" things like its "art" and chat bots and shit? Because humans don't understand computers and y'all start thinking they're all-knowing GODS who can DO NO WRONG

Imagine a law bot is fed lots of past cases in order to determine punishments for a prisoner. I know we're not there yet, just bear with me for an example.

Thing is, all the past human judges were RACIST, and their punishments were disproportionate - white prisoners get lighter sentences, everyone else (especially black people) get worse.

An AI isn't gonna have morals or ethics. ALL IT CAN DO... because again, it's a COMPUTER PROGRAM and not an ACTUAL Artificial Intelligence... is read back over all the example cases it's been given to come up with something similar. It sees a very "white" name? It'll give out those same judgements because that's what it's sampling from.

Humans are programming this shit, and HUMANS have biases. Computers aren't smarter than us, they aren't wiser than us, they will make some one's bias so much worse BECAUSE other humans shrug and go "well a computer said it so it must be true" - it becomes much harder to argue a point when you're arguing against an algorithm and not a person with discernment and a real thought process.

Consider the TERF woman-only app called "giggle" that determined who was "allowed" on the app based on a selfie and an AI that could "read" some one's bone structure and "tell" if they were biologically female. Guess what! All the history of "bone structure" arguments for biological sex, racist science! Amazingly, it's WHITE cis women who had the easiest time getting on this app because the AI is ONLY basing it off of a CERTAIN subset of white women to determine WHAT femininity IS. And that's the whole history of male vs female "science", it's HEAVILY filled with white-focused traits that ultimately end up punishing, say, black women whose facial traits might not look like what the AI thinks is "feminine"

Stop trusting computer programs that were made by flawed humans. Stop thinking we're in this amazing future where this is real actual AI and we can trust these programs to be logical and non-biased. It's a fantasy

[youcouldmakealife]

KS Fill: Mike/Liam; happy place

For the always welcome prompt: Anything where Mike and Liam are happy

Teensy bit NSFW because, well, it's Mike and Liam.

The kitchen’s always been Mike’s favourite room of the house.

Well, Liam would like to think it’s his second favourite room, but it probably isn’t. It’s not like they keep shit confined to the bedroom or anything anyway. There isn’t a surface in this house that Liam hasn’t gotten bent over at some point, though Mike was very, very thorough about disinfecting the kitchen counter after. Totally anal about it.

“Why are you snickering to yourself,” Mike says.

It doesn’t even come out suspicious, he’s gotten into such a rhythm cutting little stars out of a sheet of cookie dough. He probably wouldn’t admit this even to himself, but while Mike may like to cook, he loves to bake. Only ever does it for others, though, like the baking itself isn’t unmanly but eating the results is.

That means Liam usually only gets to sample his baking one filched cookie at a time, which is bullshit. But also, probably good for his career. Mike’s just as good at baking as he is at cooking. Possibly even better, but Liam’s got a sweet tooth, so he’s probably biased.

“Liam,” Mike says, and Liam realises he hasn’t bothered to answer.

“Thought of a sex joke,” Liam says.

Mike snorts. “Of course you did,” he says. “Do I want to hear it?”

“You always do,” Liam says. Mike secretly thinks he’s hilarious.

“Go ahead,” Mike says, trying and failing to sound long-suffering. Cutting little stars is clearly his happy place. Liam’s going to go completely nuts online later buying cookie cutters. He wonders if they have little skulls and crossbones or rockets or something. Maybe Mike will let them keep a batch of cookies if they’re badass enough. Probably not, but a man can hope.

“Remember how we fucked in the kitchen?” Liam asks.

“Which time?” Mike asks.

Liam waves a hand. “Irrelevant to the joke.”

“Okay,” Mike says. “Yes, I remember.”

“So I was thinking about how you were, you know, super thorough cleaning the counters off after?” Liam asks.

“I prepare food on these counters,” Mike says. “They need to be—“

“Not saying you shouldn’t have been,” Liam says. “Just, you know. That was kind of anal of you.”

Mike doesn’t stop himself from snorting in time. “That was bad,” he says, a second too late. “Completely juvenile.”

“I know,” Liam says cheerfully. Made Mike snort, though, so what does that say about him?

Mike looks down at his handiwork, a sea of stars across the baking sheet, enough for every member of the roster.

“You’re making two batches, right?” Liam asks. It’s just the team for this one, no significant others or kids, so technically only one batch is needed, but one per person doesn’t work out well. There are thieves on that team. He should know: he’s one of them.

“Three,” Mike says. “Make sure there’s enough for the support staff.”

Once again, Mike is going to be the most popular person at the team Christmas party. Third straight year. Liam thinks they should make him a trophy or something.

“Can we decorate them to be North Stars?” Liam asks. “Or is that not Christmassy enough?”

“Why do you think I picked stars, Fitzgerald?” Mike asks, and Liam grins at him. “Why don’t you make yourself useful, find the green food colouring for me?”

Liam has no idea where the fuck it would be, but he has eyes and hands and enthusiasm, and the full awareness that Mike will gripe at him from across the room like a backseat searcher until he locates it.

“Why would it be in there?” Mike asks, as Liam opens the cupboards, and Liam grins at the mixing bowls. The griping’s already begun.

“Baking stuff,” Liam says.

Mike sighs, and Liam moves one over.

“Liam,” he says, and Liam grins wider. “Really?”

“Tell me where to go, and I’m there,” Liam says, but instead Mike pins him against the counter, basically surrounding him. Liam leans back into him, closes his eyes when Mike wraps an arm around his chest, brushes his lips against Liam’s temple, the kind of thing he’d deny was a kiss if asked. ‘What? Kiss you? My mouth just happened to be in the area, don’t flatter yourself’.

Liam tilts his head up, and he gets a proper kiss for that, though Mike pulls away just as he’s starting to get a crick in his neck. He always seems to know, somehow.

Mike presses another not-kiss to his cheekbone, then smacks his ass. “Go find me the food colouring,” he says.

It takes ten minutes, and Mike almost throws the cookie cutter at him, but eventually Liam locates it.

“Can I help make the frosting?” he asks.

“You just want to lick the beaters,” Mike says, but he doesn’t say no.

#fic snippet #mike brouwer #liam fitzgerald

[fursasaida]

turns out not only were a lot of remains misclassified due to gendered assumptions, but also a lot of data that did in fact report women as big game hunters (ethnographic and burial finds) was just...never evaluated as a whole picture, and so cases of women "unexpectedly" being hunters and not only gatherers were treated as outliers when they aren't. it's not even that all the data was hopelessly biased "in its time" - plenty of it was in fact recognizing and reporting that hunting was not a particularly gendered activity! but nobody looked at the whole picture across datasets at once because it was assumed there wasn't a question to answer. hilarious

in a brilliant comedic flourish, one of the critics of this study they found to quote for the article is saying that this is really too small a sample to generalize from. presumably that was also true before, but that is not going to stop this guy.

#archaeology #gender

[tainbocuailnge]

such a bitter irony to how everyone knows art doesn’t pay. nobody respects artists if you want to make money you need to go to tech school. I have a degree in what I like to call ‘the art school of tech school’ because a good third of the people enrolled including me had considered art school but ended up going for the promised employability of tech school instead and this particular degree boasted of being the most creatively oriented so that’s what us art school candidates flocked to. my dad got accepted into art school and they told him he wasn’t gonna make money with it though so he declined and studied AI instead.

but once in and out of tech school many techbros, the ones who never even considered art school because artists are airheads who should get a real job, inevitably find out sooner or later that they need art. not even necessarily to make the website for their latest startup look like anything other than shit but just to make the cataclysmic experience of being alive bearable. however they don’t respect artists because art doesn’t pay so they rack their brains for a way to make art pay the only way they know how, by running it past the increasingly less immutable truth that “tech is what pays”, and that’s how we get bulled shit like NFTs and AI art. look, the computer can do it too! us computer wranglers still provide more valuable contributions than those deadbeat artists who don’t make money!

maybe they don’t even consciously look down on artists. or maybe they do, I went to the art school of tech school so my sample population is biased. but either way the reality is that tech is losing its shining future and its trying to save itself by clinging to something they’ve always looked down on as having no future. it pisses me off, it threatens my livelihood as artist, but even more than being mad about it I have to pity them because all of us and them were promised futures that don’t exist anymore and perhaps never did. its unfair to the artists but it’s not fair to the techies either. none of us should have to be in the situations that lead us here.

#anyway i love cuchulainn

[tearskillstardust]

❝MY LETTER TO YOU, MY DARLING❞

019. 𝐖𝐀𝐍𝐃𝐄𝐑𝐄𝐑—peacock and gold, yet prettier is his lotus.

📬 there's a letter for you in your mailbox!

Dear Love My Lotus,

There is little to be regarded about sumeru, even more so during these duller months when all are engaged more in academic or business pursuits than anything. Fontaine should be livelier, considering how it is the land of the endless masquerade. You're aware— I would hope so for all your clever banter— that I would have indulged your request and went there with you, but the atmosphere simply isn't one I can adjust to, and I wouldn't want to be at a place with you where we cannot entertain ourselves in peace.

This brings to my next concern—admittedly weird considering how you're more the sort to give others headaches—which is, your migraines. I spoke to Lesser Lord Kusanali for it, then a few doctors and then that friend of yours, Tighnari, and came to a simple conclusion. The herbs I've attached in the brown sachet, when mixed in the given fixed proportions (strictly speaking), are highly effective for reducing the frequency and intensity of the headaches. Consume it as soon as you wake up, before brushing. This is quite reliable but I'll be looking for other alternatives that work better by the time you come. I considered this must be of help, remembering how many regard fontainians as dramatic fools.

All things aside now, the sabzeruz festival is coming. You're aware I don't like participating in festivals, but! I'll relent this one time, because you seem to enjoy this festival too much to be deprived from the joy.

But on one condition.

We also spend some time alone in the woods; you remember that small cabin we bought some time back? there; in the (long— yes, speaking spitefully) time you've been gone, I've managed to get that place furnished. Kaveh insisted to help out, considering how you're his 'bff', but then I insisted that I was your partner, and that I had the ultimate say in how the place was decorated. Don't fret, it's to your taste. Only the curtains and fabrics are left, which I figured you'd handle better. I've attached some samples of the silks to be used, after refining them from a useless bunch, and the choice to use any of them rests with you. They all go well with the rest of the palette. I have no biases or inclinations, so keep your mind free of that. Whatever you choose is the ultimatum.

I'll welcome you with gold; remember the set you wanted to buy last spring? You already had bought so much that you wouldn't have needed it then, but I've bought it this time. It would look quite well with the gold lined dress you like to wear—the one with the fancy peacock imprints. Sabzeruz is approaching after all—a bit unromantic to not buy you something.

Give me your gift and come back as soon as possible. forget I ever said this, but I miss you. I keep forgetting how Kusanali acts more like a mother than anything, and your absence in reminding me of it.

Hoping to see you as soon as possible,

Yours,

Wanderer.

[p.s.] Kaveh is fine, Nilou is fine, the Scribe is fine, Tighnari is fine and Cyno is fine.

taglist→ @navxry

please comment on the master post to be added to the taglist, thank you !

#genshin #genshin impact #genshin x reader #genshin imagines #genshin headcanons #💌my letter to you my darling #wanderer genshin #wanderer #scarameow #kunikuzushi #scaramouche #scara #wanderer x reader #wanderer x you #wanderer x y/n

[reasonsforhope]

Do you have any advice for dealing with election anxiety?

I think/hope so!

First, a couple caveats:

I'm from the US, so US perspective, and about US 2024 elections

I know more about politics/follow them more than like, at least 85% of US Americans? But I am not an expert.

Environment/climate news and climate hope are science-based and can be measured/predicted empirically wayyyyy more than politics can, because People

I'm not getting into the trenches around Democrats vs. the Left vs. Liberals vs. Progressives. In this post, we're all in one big venn diagram of mostly interchangeable terms

So, first off, maybe my biggest piece of advice is this: The antidote to anxiety is action.

Find something you can do to help - anything. Anxiety is like fear - it's part of your brain's alarm system. It's part of your brain's mechanism for telling you that you need to do something

So if you listen to that alarm and do something, your brain won't feel the same need to desperately escalate the alarm system

You can look up and sign up for actions, protests, petitions, letter-writing campaigns, phone banking, canvassing, and more for candidates near you at Mobilize.us (no Repubs on here I promise). They also work with Swing Left a lot - a group that helps voters look up and focus on helping the nearest race that is actually competitive (because most of them aren't!)

Again, that's Mobilize.us and Swing Left as two of the best places to find out how and where to help, and sign up to do so

Other than that, I don't have advice specifically so much as I have "some useful and more hopeful ways to think about the coming US election" and to a lesser extent democracy in general

1. The media is going to underreport how well the Left and/or Democrats are doing, basically no matter what.

So, although we can't get cocky about it, this is something absolutely worth remembering when you see just about any polling or predictions about the 2024 elections.

Here's why:

Poling is weird and often inaccurate and skews in a lot of ways and is inherently biased, and it's less accurate the further you are from an election. Also, the electoral college is a huge complication here

This skewing is built into both the interpretation of the poll and the design of the poll itself - how many people do they sample? Demographic spread? Polls try to go for "likely voters," but how well can you predict that, especially as voting rates for young people and marginalized groups are rising, often dramatically?

Right now, those biases are all skewing most to all polls and predictions to the right. Including from basically all pollsters, as well as left-wing media and news outlets.

Now, THAT'S NOT INHERENTLY A BAD THING. It's not because they don't want the Left to win. It's because in 2016, basically all mainstream media, including left-leaning media, said that there was a very low chance Trump was going to win. They said that Hillary Clinton had it in the bag. So they're all correcting for the huge inaccuracy in the 2016 (and 2020 and 2022 tbh) elections

Not only were they catastrophically and humiliatingly wrong about that, they then had to deal with the fact that that very reporting was part of why Clinton lost in 2016 - voters heard she was probably going to win, so they felt safe staying home instead of voting

And then the 2020 election polls were also super wrong, mostly in the other direction

Polling as a field is undergoing a massive shakeup around this, trying to figure out how to not fuck up that badly again, but they haven't figured it out yet, so right now they're skewing things to compensate

That's for the sake of both their own credibility and, you know, the part where just about no one in either left-wing or mainstream media or mainstream polling orgs wants Trump to win

So they're going to underreport Democratic chances on purpose to a) compensate for the bias skewing things toward Democrats in their models, and b) to make sure that they don't accidentally help Trump win again

Sources: x, x, x, x, x, x, x, x, x, x, x

Reasons the Republicans are in more trouble than a lot of people think

Democrats are largely closing ranks hard around Biden, because no matter what they think of Biden, they know a Repub victory would be a thousand times worse

Republicans, however, are absolutely NOT unifying around a candidate. And they're also the ones who go around saying a ton of awful and offensive and wildly untrue things about their opponents. Meaning that the Republican primary is about to get fucking messy, and probably all of their candidates will be tarred in the process

So, basically, the Republican candidates are all going to be busy smearing the fuck out of each other - while Biden mostly doesn't have to deal with that level of negative campaigning against him for months and months

As studies show, in politics, "a negative frame is much more persistent, or “stickier,” than a positive one. If you come at an issue negatively, but are later reminded of the policy's positive aspects, you will still think it's a bust."

Also, Biden is gonna get basically all presidential-race left-wing big-name donor money, while the Right will have that money split a bunch of ways and blow through it hard on infighting, creating a probable funding gap

Trump's campaign contributions are all going to pay his legal fees. Like, to the extent that last month, his main PAC had just $4 million in cash on hand - because they siphoned over $101 million to pay his legal fees (muahahaha)

Sources: x, x, x, x, x, x, x

Other hopeful things to consider

Yes, Trump's indictments and trials are, unfortunately, boosting his numbers among his supporters. However, that's only with the hard right wing - and you can't win a general election with just the far right. He needs to appeal to independent voters and moderate Repubs - and every indictment and trial hurts his chances with them. x, x

In 2022, literally everyone was predicting a "red tsunami." And they were wrong: it never happened. Instead, Democrats picked up a seat in the senate, lost a third or less of the seats in the House that they were expected to, and won a number of statewide races. x, x, x, x, x

DeSantis's decision to go to war with Disney stands to do him a lot of fucking hard. Disney isn't just powerful in general - it's an unbelievably powerful force and employer in DeSantis's home state of Florida. Disney has already pulled a $1 billion project from Florida due to the feud, is responsible for "half" of FL's tourism industry, and and is branding DeSantis as "anti-corporation" and "anti-business" - dangerous charges in the right wing. x, x, x, x, x, x

Abortion is an issue that gets voters to the polls. This is an issue on which politicians are wildly out of step with voters: Numbers change depending on how you break it down, but generally 60% to 70% of Americans think abortion should be legal - which is, in election terms, is a landslide. For years, that momentum has been with Republicans. Well, now it's with us, and so far pro-choice candidates and ballot propositions have done way better than expected. To quote Vox, in 2022, "abortion rights won in all six states with abortion ballot measures, including in red states like Kentucky and Montana that otherwise elected Republican lawmakers." x, x, x, x, x, x, x, x, x

#Anonymous #ask #me #us politics #us elections #election 2024 #trump #biden #democrats #florida #united states #abortion access #pro choice #abortion rights #reproductive rights #political campaign #polling #statistics #good news #hope

[lightyaoigami]

hi, monica. i trust your taste because i love your writing. what are your favorite niche lawlight fics? (that is, stuff you've read that not many people in the fandom would know.)

hope that you're having a good break and come back to fic refreshed (of course, if you want to). <3 your readers won't go anywhere.

hi wow what a sweet and touching message to receive ;_;

i don't know what counts as niche tbh i will just recommend some here that i don't necessarily see as often as like idk tithe to hell or those. this is in no particular order. i actually forgot to add the ratings to the list below so just be mindful of that if that's something important to you!

the primrose path by tsukinousagi: 1.5k, a beautifully done elizabethan au inspired by hamlet. as you guys probably know i am a hamlet freak and this is laser-targeted to me, the guy who has had the username theprinceofdenmark for 15 years.

summa cum laude by whydoeseverythinghappensomuch: 13k, an incredibly atmospheric college au. reminds me so much of the secret history that it makes me want to chew my own fingers off.

tear you open live inside you by anonymous: 3k, mind the tags. excellent, super in-character blood and gore. consensual but not safe or sane. you get it.

unkissed for a million days by anivhee: 1.7k, this is after L dies but it's still lawlight. it's unhappy but i liked it even as a lawlight freak and fix-it enjoyer.

what i meant to say by booklovertwilight: 6.6k, a paratext collection of light's letters to L after his death.

twenty-three by haydonjames17: 4.7k, an utterly devastating birthday for light after L's death. i'm sensing a theme in my favorites here clearly i need help of some kind.

fifteen stories down by the-night-gods-moon: 7k, this is the closest i'll get to enjoying whump. the boys get stuck in rubble after a building explosion. this fic is profoundly underrated.

our little secret by avoidfilledwithcelluloid: 3k, i actually cannot describe this one it's so good and quite unique! it's a fresh way of writing their antagonism.

hear no evil by sharptoothed: 4.5k, so few people understand how to write misa in a lawlight context but isa nails it. it's also hot so sue me.

i know the way it ends before it's even begun by halfpromise: 15k, a side story to THE death note fic of all time, those. i am deeply biased because i got a shout-out in the dedication but this fic absolutely never fails to make me tear up. it's beautifully written, moving without being trite, and is as close to a happy ending as those!lawlight will ever get.

anyway. this is but a small sample of lawlight fics that make me insane and unwell. this was a very very nice ask to receive i am genuinely moved and i literally didn't know that anyone even noticed i was on hiatus. <3

#anon #lawlight #death note #dn fic rec

[aesethewitch]

Learning to Cook Like a Witch: The Absolute Beginning

So, you're looking to dip your toes into kitchen witchery, but you have zero experience cooking. Or, maybe you have experience that's not so great or that wasn't informative. Or, maybe you just don't know where to start, because no one ever taught you how to cook.

Great! Cooking can be intimidating to even approach when you're not used to it. I'm lucky in that I grew up cooking with my family and had the chance to take several cooking-based classes in high school. Not everyone has that sort of opportunity, so I'd like to pass on my experience to others!

(Note that you definitely don't need to be the best cook in the world to be a kitchen witch. No one's perfect! But it's okay to want to improve your skills, too.)

If you want to learn to cook, the first step is to familiarize yourself with the basic terms, measurements, and tools you'll be working with. Start with the following:

Learn the names and uses of the tools in your kitchen (for example, spatulas for spreading frosting vs. spatulas for flipping burgers)

Measurement conversions (how many teaspoons in a tablespoon, how many tablespoons in a cup, etc.)

Familiarize yourself with commonly used measurement phrases such as "dash" and "pinch," and learn exactly what they mean by that

Abbreviations for measurements (teaspoon = tsp = t, tablespoon = tbsp = T, etc.)

Various cooking terminology and the difference between terms, such as the difference between mixing, creaming, folding, and emulsifying

Read recipes and look up words you're not familiar with

Knife safety! Learn how to hold a knife properly and cut things without risking your fingers, and also learn how to keep your knives sharp. Remember, a sharp knife is a safe knife!

Once you've got knife safety down, learn how to cut an onion - dice, chop, and slice your way to delicious victory!

Learn fire, oven, and stovetop safety!

Familiarize yourself with what's in your spice cabinet; taste things if you've never had them, and look up common recipe usages for them

Learn about the Maillard reaction (this is what turns meat brown!)

Familiarize yourself with common substitutions, such as for cornstarch, buttermilk, and shortening/lard

Start with simple recipes; many chefs say you should start with omelets, white sauce, and homemade stock, and I tend to agree. Learning just these three things teaches a number of techniques that translate to a hundred other recipes!

Eat more food! Try new flavors, experiment with dishes from restaurants, ask questions about what's in what you're eating. Sample dishes and spice combinations from other cultures. Smell things before you eat them. Think about the flavors and how they're working together.

Watch videos from cooks on YouTube, or watch cooking tv shows! Honestly, Alton Brown's Good Eats was a foundational influence for me as a child, and I cut my teeth on Food Network. YouTube-wise, try Basics with Babish!

Pick a recipe you think looks good or that you've had before and just make it! Simple as that, just follow the recipe. Get the ingredients, follow the steps, eat the food!

Not everything you make is going to be good. And that's fine! Learn what went wrong and why. Figure out what tastes good and what doesn't. Let other people try your food and give you honest feedback. If you think your taste buds are biased or not "good enough," having someone else tell you "this needs more salt" or "this is really balanced" or "this would go nicely over rice instead of potatoes" is powerful.

Remember that you're learning. Look things up. Fuck up a recipe. Burn something. Realize you're missing an ingredient and figure out a substitute last minute. Leave something out, put something else in. Taste, taste, taste. Taste everything. Every time you put something in or complete a step, taste it. So long as it's not going to be a health hazard (such as with raw meat), taste it.

Take your time with it. Cooking is a skill that's earned over time via trial and error. Know that you're not alone in your worry and struggle. Millions of home cooks have stood where you stand, spoon in hand and apron tied tight. Practice, practice, practice.

Once you understand cooking by itself, you can more easily incorporate magic and weave spells into your meals, which I'll cover in another post, since this one is already quite long.

Happy cooking! 🍳🌿

If you enjoy my posts or would like to support my blog, consider throwing a couple dollars in my tip jar! ✨

#witch #witchblr #witchcraft #witch community #kitchen witch #hearth witch #cottage witch #cooking #cooking skills #cooking witch #food magic #practical magic #aese speaks #beginner witch

[five-thousand-loaves-of-bread]

maybe wrong choir talk to lol but you know skim method for read research paper, read abstract & then intro & result, something like that forgot specifics.

like, yeah. but also. think not read method section can be. bad

cannot count amount of time that, when read research paper praised by [insert community], get bad feeling, then go to methods section, to find absolute biased participant sampling.

if you research about square people who favorite color red, & you go sample square people from organizations & events & online groups where talk most about red favorite color. of course end up finding that hey square people favorite color red!

#🍞.txt