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nodynasty4us · 14 days

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From the April 11, 2024 analysis:

When we broke out respondents by their voting history, we found dramatic differences in whom they support for president in 2024. President Joe Biden performed much better among frequent voters, while Trump had a large lead among people who haven't voted recently. Specifically, among respondents who voted in the 2018, 2020 and 2022 general elections, Biden outpaced Trump 50 percent to 39 percent. But among respondents who were old enough to vote but voted in none of those three elections, Trump crushed Biden 44 percent to 26 percent.

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These results are a cautionary tale for those who would extrapolate Democrats' strong performance in 2022 or recent special elections ahead to this November. The 2024 election will almost certainly have turnout far higher than those races. It will also include millions of voters who sat out 2020... not to mention millions of people who tell pollsters that they aren't likely to vote and then do.

That said, millions of people who voted in the turbocharged turnout environment of 2020 will also likely take a pass on 2024 — and this change to the electorate could benefit Democrats. In our recent NORC poll, respondents who voted only in 2020 but skipped 2018 and 2022 leaned Trump by a large 23-point margin.

#polls #turnout #joe biden #donald trump #featured

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tutuandscoot · 1 month

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Would Scott be a great ballet dancer?

Ignoring all the factors surrounding “would he even want to”… yes. He would.

#ARMS #HANDS #TURNOUT #Scott is a ballet boy and that’s just the facts

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allanodyne · 9 months

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We should live by your laws

by AllanOdyne

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griffinequestrian · 16 days

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BFFs reunited! The seemingly last piece of the rehab puzzle is allowing Mikey to return to group turnout in a bigger field. We’ll be cautiously testing this for a few weeks, but the first try with his longtime pasture friend Paisley went well today! I’m happy for you, Mikey buddy.

#equestrian #horse #horses #horse back riding #thoroughbred #ottb #equine #heart horse #rehab journal #turnout #BFFs

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tomorrowusa · 1 year

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Putin is a terrorist propped up by oil money and dependent on his control of the FSB. It’s only natural that he would find common ground with the ruling clique in Iran which is busy murdering its own citizens nowadays.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene sided with the pro-Trump terrorists who attacked the US Capitol on January 6th last year. It surprises nobody that she would try to undermine Ukraine in order to please Vladimir Putin – the boss of her boss Donald Trump. She’s the 21st century equivalent of US citizens who sided with the Third Reich against the UK.

The best way to keep Greene from gaining influence in the US House is to donate directly to Democratic candidates in tossup districts or give through the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Join Our Campaign to Defeat Trump's Republican Agenda

Please don’t waste money on people running against Greene or other rabid Trumpsters in super red districts. Money is best spent on close races – not on longshots with no chance of winning whatsoever.

We can also protect democracy in both the US and Ukraine by contacting people we know, one on one, and letting them know that their votes are important to us. Elections are determined by turnout, numbers of votes matter as numbers of representatives matter.

So fight terrorism by voting Democratic.

Be A Voter - Vote Save America

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drgaellon · 10 months

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For some reason, tumblr will not let me reblog this, but the original post is from @lynati.

#engagement #turnout #lynati #now vote damn you

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theuniversalscat · 1 year

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A Point for Hazel.

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clubstyleeurope · 2 years

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#cse • @thefat_bobi ☂️ #m8 #114 #hd #stage1 #tbr #power #fatbob #clubstyle #softail #turnout #clubstyle_europe #csc #clubstyleworld #clubstyle #clubstylesoftail #harleyporn #fatbobworld #harley #riserdc #originalgarage #harleyrider #dynamitecrew #sscyle #avon #csc @fatbobworld @clubstyle_europe @clubstyle.france @clubstylecrew @clubstyleconnection https://www.instagram.com/p/CgTzQ-LIcjt/?igshid=NGJjMDIxMWI=

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majormisunderstanding · 1 year

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New South Wales Fire Brigade responding to reports of a fire, early 1960’s.

From Fires and Firemen, by Carol Odell, 1963. Photographer unknown.

#fire brigade #fire #new south wales #emergency #photography #turnout #firemen

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eveningnetwork · 1 year

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Warnock Claims Momentum in Georgia, as Walker Banks on Election Day Turnout

ATLANTA — On the final day before the Senate runoff vote in Georgia, Senator Raphael Warnock told his supporters to ignore the pundits predicting his victory and instead, in a hotly contested race to close out the midterm cycle, ” I begged them to vote as if it were an emergency.” His Republican challenger, former football star Herschel Walker, who was recruited to the campaign by former…

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#Banks #Claims #Day #election #Georgia #Momentum #Turnout #Walker #Warnock

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nodynasty4us · 25 days

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From the April 2, 2024 story:

It would be hard to design a setup more amenable to Democratic turnout. Women will presumably show up to the polls in droves to register their opinion on abortion. Young people will turn out to support marijuana legalization AND abortion access. And because 60% is the bar, it will be an all-hands-on-deck sort of election. Nobody who cares about either issue can tell themselves "Ah, I'll stay home. My vote's not needed." Meanwhile, even if the pro-choice and/or pro-marijuana forces can't get to 60%, there are lots of important races that are determined by a simple majority, or, in the absence of a majority, a plurality. The state's electoral votes. The U.S. Senate race, featuring the never-won-any-election-by-more-than-2% Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL). The various House races, which could return a Congress that protects abortion access nationwide. The state legislative races, which could seat a legislature that overturns the 6-week ban. Yes, there are certainly some anti-choice and/or anti-marijuana folks who will get themselves to the polls. But the zealots were already voting, and non-zealots tend to be less motivated when the status quo is already acceptable and/or when their side only needs to get to 40%. It's nearly inconceivable that yesterday's [state supreme court] decisions could drive Republican turnout more than they drive Democratic turnout. And, as a reminder, Donald Trump won the state by 3 points in 2020 and by 1 point in 2016, while Scott won election to the Senate by 0.13% in 2018. It won't take all that much of a Democratic surge to produce very different results in 2024.

#florida #reproductive rights #marijuana #turnout #democrats #2024 #featured

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angelholme · 7 months

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As biased and shameful reporting goes, this really is quite impressive.....

First there is the repeated use the phrase “SHAMED MP Margaret Ferrier” — as if they are trying to drive home the idea that what she did was terrible and wrong.

Language that, from what I remember, they have never used about Rishi Sunak (who broke the law), Carrie Symonds (who broke the law) and Boris Johnson (who broke the law, lied to Parliament, and is being investigated for breaking the law)

And language they have rarely used over other MPs.

But they use it repeatedly and persistently to attack this MP — this female MP I might add.

Secondly — the graph to show the swing from the SNP to Labour is very badly done.

The votes are colours red/yellow/blue etc (as you would expect — party colours) and yet the swing for Labour is blue — a colour most people associate with the Tories.

If you were to just glance at that, you might (if you were not paying attention) take it to read that the swing was to the Tory party, not Labour.

I would argue that is more than a little misleading.

Third — the turnout was just about half of the general election.

So the “winning candidate” who got “such a commanding victory” that “everyone is hailing as a glorious triumph” got 17,845 votes. Which is fewer votes than the Labour candidate got during the 2019 election (18, 545).

Which, to me, suggests that no one in this constituency gave a shit about this election — if you can win with fewer votes than it takes to get second place in the previous vote then really what does that say about the people who are voting and more to the point the people who are not voting?

The combined total of first and second place was only a shade over the number of votes Ms Ferrier got in total in the 2019 election.

Which again suggests that no one gave a shit about this election.

x-x-x

The constituents know it is less than a year until the General Election.

They know that whichever fuckwhit gets into the seat is a caretaker — a seatwarmer. They are going to be there for eight, maybe nine months.

They are the substitute teacher of politics, and they damn well know it.

And yet the article is reporting it as if this is a GLORIOUS DAY FOR ENGLISH POLITICS — those DAMNED INDEPENDENTISTS HAVE BEEN CRUSHED BENEATH THE HEAL OF THE GOOD DECENT ENGLISH PARTY.

It’s fucking ridiculous, and the bias throughout the article is not something you expect from an allegedly independent news source.

#sky news #margaret ferrier #rishi sunak #boris johnson #carrie symonds #snp #tory #labour #2023 #2019 #general election #caretaker mp #substitute teacher #turnout

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know-news-is-good-news · 8 months

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OH too BAD, someone must have told them ! !

Court set for 23 October, provided Donny Boy doesn't do anything a judge could interpret as an effort to intimidate co-defendants or witnesses or “otherwise obstruct the administration of justice” before he EVEN gets released ! !

It could happen, knowing Donny Boy who has NO respect for Willis or ANY others who oppose him !

#Trump #trial #indicment #10am #trap #court #date #23 #October #weak #turnout #opposing #Donny #Boy

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newsfeed2023 · 10 months

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Protest of Khalistanis outside the Indian High Commission in London turned cold had low-key turnout. Protest of Khalistanis outside the Indian High Commission in London turned cold, could not gather supporters

Image Source: PTI Demonstration outside the Indian High Commission in London London: Around 30-40 Khalistani gathered outside the Indian High Commission in London, UK yesterday. After which the security here has been increased. On the other hand, security has been increased near the Indian Embassy in Washington DC, USA. Actually, Khalistani fundamentalists attacked and set fire to the Indian…

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qca7groqdqw4f · 1 year

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THICK MILF CREAMY FAT PUSSY DILDO MASTURBATION WATCHAMUCHACHA Cogiendo a la Flaca Mendoza una friend de mi hermana una mexicana que coge como perrita ninfomana en celo me cogi a mi tia Young guy pounding shaved pussies Cheating Ahegao EGirl Gets Bukkake & Blowbang by Darling Kiyomi Fuck skinny babe doggie and cum on ass Astounding blonde teen giving a mind blowing blowjob anal squirting and facial Mexicana con una verga en el culo y semen en la cara Wife fucking my best friend

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politicsnc · 1 year

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Will the Trumpist show up without Trump?

Earlier this week, the Never-Trump publication The Bulwark released a poll showing that a majority of the Republican Party is ready to put the Trump legacy behind them. Unfortunately for them, a solid minority is more loyal to the grifter and former president than to the GOP. According to the poll memo, Trump retains “a lock on approximately 30 percent of likely Republican primary and caucus…

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#Donald Trump #Ron DeSantis #turnout

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