#election prediction

[mapsontheweb]

YouGov UK election prediction map

#maps #uk #election prediction

[dynamicity-keysmash]

This isn't my usual content, but while the election year is still new I figured I'd try out a prediction. It'll be interesting to see how accurate I am this far out. To explain myself a bit, I see most voters being pretty static in a Biden-Trump rematch. Biden has a lot of weaknesses right now, but trump literally has 91 felony charges that will heat up throughout the year. The only change in the map from 2020 that I predict is Biden narrowly not being able to recapture Georgia due to draconian voting restrictions and the effects of changing party coalitions (Biden gaining with college educated whites and losing some ground with non-college-educated people of color). Feel free to ask for the logic behind any part of my prediction!

#politics #trump #us politics #donald trump #joe biden #2024 elections #us elections #2024 election #us 2024 elections #us 2024 election #biden #dark brandon #fuck trump #dear god i really hope I'm right and fascism loses #election prediction #election predictions #538 #fivethirtyeight

[vordemtodgefeit]

‘nobody wants a general election, obviously’, says second PM in a row that wasn’t voted in by the general public, wasn’t even voted in by members of the party let alone the people he claims to represent, and whose party is predicted to lose said general election

#piss right the fuck off #we should’ve had a general election after johnson got pushed out #we are MASSIVELY overdue #this makes him look (a) like even more of an anti-democratic pm clinging to power without a vote #and (b) too scared to go to the polls because he knows the tories are predicted to lose their westminster streak #the only people i know that aren’t keen on a general election are - to precisely nobody’s surprise - tory voters #uk politics #ukpol #british politics

[mostlysignssomeportents]

Hypothetical AI election disinformation risks vs real AI harms

I'm on tour with my new novel The Bezzle! Catch me TONIGHT (Feb 27) in Portland at Powell's. Then, onto Phoenix (Changing Hands, Feb 29), Tucson (Mar 9-12), and more!

You can barely turn around these days without encountering a think-piece warning of the impending risk of AI disinformation in the coming elections. But a recent episode of This Machine Kills podcast reminds us that these are hypothetical risks, and there is no shortage of real AI harms:

https://soundcloud.com/thismachinekillspod/311-selling-pickaxes-for-the-ai-gold-rush

The algorithmic decision-making systems that increasingly run the back-ends to our lives are really, truly very bad at doing their jobs, and worse, these systems constitute a form of "empiricism-washing": if the computer says it's true, it must be true. There's no such thing as racist math, you SJW snowflake!

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/02/aoc-algorithms-racist-bias.html

Nearly 1,000 British postmasters were wrongly convicted of fraud by Horizon, the faulty AI fraud-hunting system that Fujitsu provided to the Royal Mail. They had their lives ruined by this faulty AI, many went to prison, and at least four of the AI's victims killed themselves:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Post_Office_scandal

Tenants across America have seen their rents skyrocket thanks to Realpage's landlord price-fixing algorithm, which deployed the time-honored defense: "It's not a crime if we commit it with an app":

https://www.propublica.org/article/doj-backs-tenants-price-fixing-case-big-landlords-real-estate-tech

Housing, you'll recall, is pretty foundational in the human hierarchy of needs. Losing your home – or being forced to choose between paying rent or buying groceries or gas for your car or clothes for your kid – is a non-hypothetical, widespread, urgent problem that can be traced straight to AI.

Then there's predictive policing: cities across America and the world have bought systems that purport to tell the cops where to look for crime. Of course, these systems are trained on policing data from forces that are seeking to correct racial bias in their practices by using an algorithm to create "fairness." You feed this algorithm a data-set of where the police had detected crime in previous years, and it predicts where you'll find crime in the years to come.

But you only find crime where you look for it. If the cops only ever stop-and-frisk Black and brown kids, or pull over Black and brown drivers, then every knife, baggie or gun they find in someone's trunk or pockets will be found in a Black or brown person's trunk or pocket. A predictive policing algorithm will naively ingest this data and confidently assert that future crimes can be foiled by looking for more Black and brown people and searching them and pulling them over.

Obviously, this is bad for Black and brown people in low-income neighborhoods, whose baseline risk of an encounter with a cop turning violent or even lethal. But it's also bad for affluent people in affluent neighborhoods – because they are underpoliced as a result of these algorithmic biases. For example, domestic abuse that occurs in full detached single-family homes is systematically underrepresented in crime data, because the majority of domestic abuse calls originate with neighbors who can hear the abuse take place through a shared wall.

But the majority of algorithmic harms are inflicted on poor, racialized and/or working class people. Even if you escape a predictive policing algorithm, a facial recognition algorithm may wrongly accuse you of a crime, and even if you were far away from the site of the crime, the cops will still arrest you, because computers don't lie:

https://www.cbsnews.com/sacramento/news/texas-macys-sunglass-hut-facial-recognition-software-wrongful-arrest-sacramento-alibi/

Trying to get a low-waged service job? Be prepared for endless, nonsensical AI "personality tests" that make Scientology look like NASA:

https://futurism.com/mandatory-ai-hiring-tests

Service workers' schedules are at the mercy of shift-allocation algorithms that assign them hours that ensure that they fall just short of qualifying for health and other benefits. These algorithms push workers into "clopening" – where you close the store after midnight and then open it again the next morning before 5AM. And if you try to unionize, another algorithm – that spies on you and your fellow workers' social media activity – targets you for reprisals and your store for closure.

If you're driving an Amazon delivery van, algorithm watches your eyeballs and tells your boss that you're a bad driver if it doesn't like what it sees. If you're working in an Amazon warehouse, an algorithm decides if you've taken too many pee-breaks and automatically dings you:

https://pluralistic.net/2022/04/17/revenge-of-the-chickenized-reverse-centaurs/

If this disgusts you and you're hoping to use your ballot to elect lawmakers who will take up your cause, an algorithm stands in your way again. "AI" tools for purging voter rolls are especially harmful to racialized people – for example, they assume that two "Juan Gomez"es with a shared birthday in two different states must be the same person and remove one or both from the voter rolls:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/eligible-voters-swept-up-conservative-activists-purge-voter-rolls/

Hoping to get a solid education, the sort that will keep you out of AI-supervised, precarious, low-waged work? Sorry, kiddo: the ed-tech system is riddled with algorithms. There's the grifty "remote invigilation" industry that watches you take tests via webcam and accuses you of cheating if your facial expressions fail its high-tech phrenology standards:

https://pluralistic.net/2022/02/16/unauthorized-paper/#cheating-anticheat

All of these are non-hypothetical, real risks from AI. The AI industry has proven itself incredibly adept at deflecting interest from real harms to hypothetical ones, like the "risk" that the spicy autocomplete will become conscious and take over the world in order to convert us all to paperclips:

https://pluralistic.net/2023/11/27/10-types-of-people/#taking-up-a-lot-of-space

Whenever you hear AI bosses talking about how seriously they're taking a hypothetical risk, that's the moment when you should check in on whether they're doing anything about all these longstanding, real risks. And even as AI bosses promise to fight hypothetical election disinformation, they continue to downplay or ignore the non-hypothetical, here-and-now harms of AI.

There's something unseemly – and even perverse – about worrying so much about AI and election disinformation. It plays into the narrative that kicked off in earnest in 2016, that the reason the electorate votes for manifestly unqualified candidates who run on a platform of bald-faced lies is that they are gullible and easily led astray.

But there's another explanation: the reason people accept conspiratorial accounts of how our institutions are run is because the institutions that are supposed to be defending us are corrupt and captured by actual conspiracies:

https://memex.craphound.com/2019/09/21/republic-of-lies-the-rise-of-conspiratorial-thinking-and-the-actual-conspiracies-that-fuel-it/

The party line on conspiratorial accounts is that these institutions are good, actually. Think of the rebuttal offered to anti-vaxxers who claimed that pharma giants were run by murderous sociopath billionaires who were in league with their regulators to kill us for a buck: "no, I think you'll find pharma companies are great and superbly regulated":

https://pluralistic.net/2023/09/05/not-that-naomi/#if-the-naomi-be-klein-youre-doing-just-fine

Institutions are profoundly important to a high-tech society. No one is capable of assessing all the life-or-death choices we make every day, from whether to trust the firmware in your car's anti-lock brakes, the alloys used in the structural members of your home, or the food-safety standards for the meal you're about to eat. We must rely on well-regulated experts to make these calls for us, and when the institutions fail us, we are thrown into a state of epistemological chaos. We must make decisions about whether to trust these technological systems, but we can't make informed choices because the one thing we're sure of is that our institutions aren't trustworthy.

Ironically, the long list of AI harms that we live with every day are the most important contributor to disinformation campaigns. It's these harms that provide the evidence for belief in conspiratorial accounts of the world, because each one is proof that the system can't be trusted. The election disinformation discourse focuses on the lies told – and not why those lies are credible.

That's because the subtext of election disinformation concerns is usually that the electorate is credulous, fools waiting to be suckered in. By refusing to contemplate the institutional failures that sit upstream of conspiracism, we can smugly locate the blame with the peddlers of lies and assume the mantle of paternalistic protectors of the easily gulled electorate.

But the group of people who are demonstrably being tricked by AI is the people who buy the horrifically flawed AI-based algorithmic systems and put them into use despite their manifest failures.

As I've written many times, "we're nowhere near a place where bots can steal your job, but we're certainly at the point where your boss can be suckered into firing you and replacing you with a bot that fails at doing your job"

https://pluralistic.net/2024/01/15/passive-income-brainworms/#four-hour-work-week

The most visible victims of AI disinformation are the people who are putting AI in charge of the life-chances of millions of the rest of us. Tackle that AI disinformation and its harms, and we'll make conspiratorial claims about our institutions being corrupt far less credible.

If you'd like an essay-formatted version of this post to read or share, here's a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:

https://pluralistic.net/2024/02/27/ai-conspiracies/#epistemological-collapse

Image: Cryteria (modified) https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:HAL9000.svg

CC BY 3.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/deed.en

#pluralistic #ai #disinformation #algorithmic bias #elections #election disinformation #conspiratorialism #paternalism #this machine kills #Horizon #the rents too damned high #weaponized shelter #predictive policing #fr #facial recognition #labor #union busting #union avoidance #standardized testing #hiring #employment #remote invigilation

[brookheimer]

the one thing i feel pretty certain about for this episode is that america will not decide the election. a decision will be made, a president will be elected, but america will not be the deciding factor.

succession can’t mimic 2016 or 2020 point blank, that would be boring and have nothing to say. it can’t try to outdo trump because it’ll go too whacky and fall flat like veep’s last season (sorry conheads, no way he’s winning). but what it CAN do is illustrate the immensely corrupt, often arbitrary, and hugely influential nature of news media and conglomerations on political processes. i think probably jimenez will be in the lead, then atn/waystar does something to, i don’t know, discount votes or cast suspicion on jimenez or call the election for mencken early, and the tide will shift, even though the votes are already in. the votes don’t actually matter. the actual result doesn’t actually matter. that’s the power logan (and as an extension, billionaires and CEOs in general) hold. shiv says it herself to logan in s4e2: “just cause you say it’s true doesn’t make it true. everyone just fucking agrees with you and believes you, so it becomes true and then you can turn around and say like, 'oh, you see? see? i was right.'” but it doesn’t matter that logan’s “a human fucking gaslight,” everything he says comes true anyways. not because he was right, but because that’s how it works. he says things and then they happen, regardless of what the truth is or what should actually come to pass. that’s been one of the key throughlines since the very first episode of the entire show when, in response to kendall calling logan out of touch because times are changing and logan isn't changing with them, logan hisses that everyone always says you’re wrong until you do it and prove you were right: “you make your own reality.” you can't miss the bus if you're the one driving it. the election, the votes, the political process? none of that matters. it was always going to come down to the roys and their ilk (allies or enemies, just the top 1%) — that was the whole point of “what it takes” (the mencken episode) last season, after all.

i’ve seen lots of theories about what america will choose and how the candidates will respond and all that and i just don’t think that’s the show’s focus; i think the whole point is to demonstrate the lack of agency, the illusion of democracy. because, i mean, we’ve already seen the fall of democracy via fascist election and fascist election-denial, both in real life and in the countless (usually mid) satires created afterwards. it would be disappointing to see succession use the election to reiterate that same point of 'ohhh alt-right ahhhhh!!!' i don’t think it’ll be about ‘fascism’ at all — at least, not ‘trump-y’ fascism. it’ll be about fascism in the broader sense, the kind that doesn't sport a KKK hood (even when it keeps one tucked away in the attic). it's the fascism that every single roy (very much including shiv and kendall) aid and abet -- the fascism that so many succession fans don't seem to regard as fascism, despite it quite literally being the definition of fascism. trump wasn’t the entrance of fascism into our political process. he wasn’t the lone sign of the failing of american democracy. democracy in america has long been illusory, trump just made it more blatantly evident with his particular brand of hate-speech-ridden masculinist in-your-face fascism.

so i think that’s what this episode will hopefully focus on — america will not decide. corporations, news media, and the roys will. thus, the president will most likely become president not because the country supports his policies the most, but because he’s likely to agree to help block a business deal for a major media empire, and the other candidate is unlikely to. and this will likely come to pass due to said major media empire's interference and influence: they create their own reality. they say it, and everyone agrees with them and believes them, so it becomes true.

#WOOF okay here's my unnecessary ~thematic prediction~ for this episode #i have some more like random thoughts ab what'll happen but those r less thought out and more throwing shit at the wall etc #but i've been thinking a lot ab this ep n idk i just can't see any other way it could be done satisfyingly -- they can't just do 2016/2020 #again. the focus has to be elsewhere. i have some specifics thoughts on details but again those r kinda random n will be in another post #after bizarrely getting a lot of things right this szn i know a lot of people are looking to me to see what i'll say for this ep and let me #remind yall that I AM LITERALLY JUST GUESSING BASED ON MY UNDERSTANDING OF THE SHOW AND HOW NARRATIVES #TEND TO WORK PARTICULARLY IN SUCCESSION! if i am wrong which i very well might be please do not crucify me. i know literally #nothing more than anyone else i'm just a random english/gov major who likes speculating about media ! that said if i end up right again #somehow then yes i am a prophet i am jesse armstrong i have never been wrong about anything in my life. etc #watch this age so poorly tho. #LOL #also fwiw i dont think the Shock etc is going to come from the election results - maybe possibly from the way things happen (i could see a #line of miscommunication resulting in fucked up outcomes etc which i can get into in another post) or a roy sibs moment but i just #don't think there's any way the results themselves cld be surprising. it's jimenez or mencken. it's not gonna be connor guys. #succession #succession spoilers #except not really. just succession speculation more than anything else #long post #succession speculation #100

[stlangels]

I am shaking with fucking rage listening to this state of the union i think maybe two other faces have made me instantly get this angry.

I am not your "fellow American." I refuse to be American if this is what it means to be American. I am human before I am an American.

I refuse to die before I see a free Palestine. I will see a free Palestine in my lifetime. I refuse to die before I can see a free world. I will see everyone free in my lifetime because I refuse to die without seeing it. It's probably impossible but I don't care because I have to see it. I'm sick of seeing anything else.

#I cannot accept this place as it is bit I do love this place. I love the lands the people and the places I lived in and have seen. I want th #This is the first election I vote in and its the only one I've been around for that I couldn't even beg to predict. And either outcome is e #the same kind of evil we've been for over a hundred years. The evil place I was born into. #I haven't had faith in America since 2020 #when the illusion snapped. But as every year comes and goes I manage to lose even more faith in this place that I've hated for 3years and 9 #I have to live to see a free world. I have to see it with my own two eyes. I have to see people free from fear. I don't know how to live wi #and your freedom #and our freedom #and their freedom. I want to see a world where children are happy. I want to see the world I keep dreaming about #where everyone is taken care of. #grahambles

[queen-feisty-pants]

If Spy x Family doesn't end up having even one chapter dedicated to a school play where everything goes wrong, then what's the point?

#listen i'm stressed in general and trying to distract myself from the election coverage #just indulge me for a bit #spy x family #it seems like every animanga series taking place in a school has a school play arc or mini-arc of sorts #so this had better not be the exception #there's so much comedic gold #also i think i may have come up with a fun fanfic idea... if i could get around to writing it #filed under 'fanfic ideas'... along with many other ideas that are gathering dust sadly... #honestly i have lots and lots of ideas predictions speculations headcanons observations what-have-you that i'm just bursting to share.

[todoroki-tina]

The fact that so many Republicans are rallying to raise the Voting age to 21 shows two things how much voting really matters and the GOP are scared of Gen Z. Gen Z came out this midterm, young voter turnout are always low especially during midterms but the fact that turnout exceeded 2020 in some states is great. The GOP knows their main support are older and white Americans (they also know their support is shrinking), more young people are making their voice heard and they dont want that.

#Gen Z #midterms #us politics #2022 midterm predictions #2022 midterm elections #Gen Z please keep up the energy

[taratarotgreene]

Aries Equinox, New Year, International Astrology Day

Happy Spring Equinox, it’s the Aries Sun ingress and Spring in the Northern Hemisphere and Autumn Down under, when day and night are equal and balanced because the Sun is sitting directly over the Equator. Which it does again at Autumn Equinox. Only two days of the year are in this balance. The SUN at 0 ARIES the first sign of the Zodiac and a brand hot new beginning is March 19 at 8:06 pm PDT,…

View On WordPress

#1 psychic in Canada #Aries Season #Astrology and tarot with Tara Greene #astrology workshops and Tara Greene Toronto #Best tarot astrology psychic readings #Election year #Get your best reading ever from Tara Greene #Intenational Astrology Day #Ostara #Year ahead predictions

[mortimermcmirestinks]

is it possible for me to say "the Israeli government is committing horrific genocidal war crimes and needs to be stopped at all costs, free Palestine" AND "it would be extremely bad if a Republican got elected president of the US in 2024" at the same time? because it's starting to look like a shitton of people find those two opinions contradictory

#like. fuck the israeli government. it's horrific and genocidal #imperialism is bad and genocide is bad and islamophobia is bad #but also #at the same time #I think that we should avoid electing people to the United States government who openly think that being trans deserves a death sentence #like y'all understand that donald trump isn't exactly a Free Palestine kind of person right #predicting that one year from now when the votes are tallied Just Enough People will have refrained from voting that we get another fascist #and we'll be fucked #people refusing to vote for clinton in 2016 was how we got trump the first time #I'm going to lose my fucking mind

[dicapiito]

This election season feels like 2016… hopefully it won’t end up like 2016

Seeing people I formerly fucked with drinking leftist kool aid bullshit and spreading obvious misinformation, people acting like they can sit out of voting or voting for a third party candidate that is only in the race to siphon money from idiots who don’t know better while most of the Democrats (doesn’t include Leftist Lazies like the Squad) are trying to fix the damage the GOP has done.

Exhausting tbh. Kinda want to fast forward to Biden winning the election and the leftist freaks fucking of into obscurity.

Oh and fair prediction: don’t be shocked if a certain website or three clean house and the leftists who spread Russian propaganda are banned from it. Including people you think you know

#us politics #us elections #like I predict a few people won’t be around after Biden wins in November #the bloggers I leave to you to predict

[yahoo201027]

Who'd you got winning Match 4 of the Group A stages in the 2024 Battle of the Week Voting Tournament?

Characters & Fandoms: Noelle Silva (Black Clover); Mikasa Ackerman (Attack on Titan)

Poll Date: April 14 (Opening); April 20 (Closing)

#black clover #attack on titan #shingeki no kyojin #noelle silva #mikasa ackerman #anime and manga #vote 2024 #election 2024 #battle of the week #battle of the week 2024 #group a #match 4 #opinion #poll #predictions

[thesparkwhowalks]

Summer blockbuster season is off to a strong start with back-to-back movies that ask the question "What if the turn-of-the-20th-century weirdos were right"?

On the left, we have Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, in which early 20th century spiritualism is dead-on correct (mainly because franchise creator Dan Aykroyd actually believes in early 20th century spirtitualism).

On the right, we have Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire, in which the hollow Earth and "Theory of Atlantis" themes from the last movie are expanded on at length.

And if the "mainstream" conspiracy sphere weren't so focused on licking Russian boots and tying everything else in the world to the so-called "globalist deep state", they'd be having a field day.

#for real #spoilers #we have two movies come out in an election year #where the plots are built on foundational conspiracist beliefs being right #supernatural ice ages are a plot point in both #both have the word “empire” in the subtitle #fifteen years ago that gets a full episode of info wars about the predictive programming of it all #ghostbusters frozen empire #godzilla x kong: the new empire #movies #skepticism

[brookheimer]

man now i'm just thinking about it and like... god. what if rome's actual eulogy goes fine like it goes as planned he's all Dad Was A Great Man I Loved Him Lots Don't You Think I'm Like Him Tee Hee and then the results of ken's e4 smear campaign initiation start coming out and everyone finds out logan beat roman all his life and was disgusted by him etc etc etc like. rome baby i'd go fucking missing too

#ok i dont actually think this is going to happen bc y would they show us lines from the eulogy if he ends up saying them in the eulogy #like... would they really show him practicing a eulogy (in the TRAILER no less) that he ends up giving exactly like he practiced #probably not #but wouldn't this be fucking hilarious (read: devastating) #anyways yeah guys this is not A Prediction okay i have 0 confidence in this lmao. like last week i felt so sure ab it #bc i like could not see any other way the election could go and lo and behold. i was right! but this???? #man this could go 128371293 diff ways and this is just one of those 128371293 #but what a fucking way to knock rome off his pedestal LMAOOO #succession #succession spoilers #(cuz i mention him going missing which is spoilers for ep10 except also not really because it was just the official episode description) #succession speculation #kind of LOL

[nosferdoc]

“It’s not looking great. The best we can hope for right now is a 50-50 Senate, but the House is long gone.”

— Democratic strategist who advises major party donors quoted in Politico, 10/17/2022.

#quotes #politics #politico #midterm elections #predictions

[jackredfieldwasmyjacob]

good morning! i can't wait for the fascists to win once again tonight 🥰🥰🥰

#anyways happy election day #btw even if the predictions seem bleak or pessimistic PLEASE VOTE #FOR THE LOVE OF GOD VOTE #every vote counts !!!