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mostlysignssomeportents · 1 year

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Elizabeth Warren on weaponized budget models

In yesterday’s essay, I broke down the new series from The American Prospect on the hidden ideology and power of budget models, these being complex statistical systems for weighing legislative proposals to determine if they are “economically sound.” The assumptions baked into these models are intensely political, and, like all dirty political actors, the model-makers claim they are “empirical” while their adversaries are “doing politics”:

https://pluralistic.net/2023/04/03/all-models-are-wrong/#some-are-useful

If you’d like an essay-formatted version of this post to read or share, here’s a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:

https://pluralistic.net/2023/04/04/cbo-says-no/#wealth-tax

Today edition of the Prospect continues the series with an essay by Elizabeth Warren, describing how her proposal for universal child care was defeated by the incoherent, deeply political assumptions of the Congressional Budget Office’s model, blocking an important and popular policy simply because “computer says no”:

https://prospect.org/economy/2023-04-04-policymakers-fight-losing-battle-models/

When the Build Back Better bill was first mooted, it included a promise of universal, federally funded childcare. This was excised from the final language of the bill (renamed the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill), because the CBO said it would cost too much: $381.5b over ten years.

This is a completely nonsensical number, and the way that CBO arrived at it is illuminating, throwing the ideology of CBO modeling into stark relief. You see, the price tag for universal childcare did not include the benefits of childcare!

As Warren points out, this is not how investment works. No business leader assesses their capital expenditures without thinking of the dividends from those investments. No firm decides whether to open a new store by estimating the rent and salaries and ignoring the sales it will generate. Any business that operates on that basis would never invest in anything.

Universal childcare produces enormous dividends. Kids who have access to high-quality childcare grow up to do better in school, have less trouble with the law, and earn more as adults. Mothers who can’t afford childcare, meanwhile, absent themselves from the workforce during their prime earning years. Those mothers are less likely to advance professionally, have lower lifetime earnings, and a higher likelihood of retiring without adequate savings.

What’s more, universal childcare is the only way to guarantee a living wage to childcare workers, who are disproportionately likely to rely on public assistance, including SNAP (AKA food stamps) to make ends meet. These stressors affect childcare workers’ job performance, and also generate public expenditures to keep those workers fed and housed.

But the CBO model does not include any of those benefits. As Warren says, in a CBO assessment, giving every kid in America decent early childhood care and every childcare worker a living wage produces the same upside as putting $381.5 in a wheelbarrow and setting it on fire.

This is by design. Congress has decreed that CBO assessments can’t factor in secondary or indirect benefits from public expenditure. This is bonkers. Public investment is all secondary and indirect benefits — from highways to broadband, from parks to training programs, from education to Medicare. Excluding indirect benefits from assessments of public investments is a literal, obvious, unavoidable recipe for ending the most productive and beneficial forms of public spending.

It means that — for example — a CBO score for Meals on Wheels for seniors is not permitted to factor in the Medicare savings from seniors who can age in their homes with dignity, rather than being warehoused at tremendous public expense in nursing homes.

It means that the salaries of additional IRS enforcers can only be counted as an expense — Congress isn’t allowed to budget for the taxes that those enforcers will recover.

And, of course, it’s why we can’t have Medicare For All. Private health insurers treat care as an expense, with no upside. Denying you care and making you sicker isn’t a bug as far as the health insurance industry is concerned — it’s a feature. You bear the expense of the sickness, after all, and they realize the savings from denying you care.

But public health programs can factor in those health benefits and weigh them against health costs — in theory, at least. However, if the budgeting process refuses to factor in “indirect” benefits — like the fact that treating your chronic illness lets you continue to take care of your kids and frees your spouse from having to quit their job to look after you — then public health care costings become indistinguishable from the private sector’s for-profit death panels.

Child care is an absolute bargain. The US ranks 33d out of 37 rich countries in terms of public child care spending, and in so doing, it kneecaps innumerable mothers’ economic prospects. The upside of providing care is enormous, far outweighing the costs — so the CBO just doesn’t weigh them.

Warren is clear that there’s no way to make public child care compatible with CBO scoring. Even when she whittled away at her bill, excluding millions of families who would have benefited from the program, the CBO still flunked it.

The current budget-scoring system was designed for people who want to “shrink government until it fits in a bathtub, and then drown it.” It is designed so that we can’t have nice things. It is designed so that the computer always says no.

Warren calls for revisions to the CBO model, to factor in those indirect benefits that are central to public spending. She also calls for greater diversity in CBO oversight, currently managed by a board of 20 economists and only two non-economists — and the majority of the economists got their PhDs from the same program and all hew to the same orthodoxy.

For all its pretense of objectivity, modeling is a subjective, interpretive discipline. If all your modelers are steeped in a single school, they will incinerate the uncertainty and caveats that should be integrated into every modeler’s conclusions, the humility that comes from working with irreducible uncertainty.

Finally, Warren reminds us that there are values that are worthy of consideration, beyond a dollars-and-cents assessment. Even though programs like child care pay for themselves, that’s not the only reason to favor them — to demand them. Child care creates “an America in which everyone has opportunities — and ‘everyone’ includes mamas.” Child care is “an investment in care workers, treating them with respect for the hard work they do.”

The CBO’s assassination of universal child care is exceptional only because it was a public knifing. As David Dayen and Rakeen Mabud wrote in their piece yesterday, nearly all of the CBO’s dirty work is done in the dark, before a policy is floated to the public:

https://prospect.org/economy/2023-04-03-hidden-in-plain-sight/

The entire constellation of political possibility has been blotted out by the CBO, so that when we gaze up at the sky, we can only see a few sickly stars — weak economic nudges like pricing pollution, and not the glittering possibilities of banning it. We see the faint hope of “bending the cost-curve” on health care, and not the fierce light of simply providing care.

We can do politics. We have done it before. Every park and every highway, our libraries and our schools, our ports and our public universities — these were created by people no smarter than us. They didn’t rely on a lost art to do their work. We know how they did it. We know what’s stopping us from doing it again. And we know what to do about it.

Have you ever wanted to say thank you for these posts? Here’s how you can: I’m kickstarting the audiobook for my next novel, a post-cyberpunk anti-finance finance thriller about Silicon Valley scams called Red Team Blues. Amazon’s Audible refuses to carry my audiobooks because they’re DRM free, but crowdfunding makes them possible.

[Image ID: A disembodied hand, floating in space. It holds a Univac mainframe computer. The computer is shooting some kind of glowing red rays that are zapping three US Capitol Buildings, suspended on hovering platforms. In the background, the word NO is emblazoned in a retrocomputing magnetic ink font, limned in red.]

#empirical facewash #wealth tax #elizabeth warren #cbo #congressional budget office #penn wharton budget model #budgeting #economics #economism #computer says no #pluralistic #universal childcare #build back better #bipartisan infrastructure bill

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mxxnkirby · 7 months

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romeo n juliet but its a shtwt boy and a edblr girl

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dyggot · 1 year

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Hey, whats the deal with the suffocating plants infesting my lungs?

#this is not hanahaki this is my oc #it can be hanahaki if you want though #cbo

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mel-rhodes-place · 2 months

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Navalny's Widow Addresses EU Lawmakers

Yulia Navalnaya has vowed to continue her husband’s work to fight for a “free Russia,” Credit: EPA In the days following her husband Alexei Navalny’s death in a Russian prison colony on 16 February, Yulia Navalnaya has picked up his mantle as a prominent critic of President Vladimir Putin. Speaking to European lawmakers and students from across the continent in Strasbourg, Ms. Navalnaya called…

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odinsblog · 11 months

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THE FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY ACT (FRA), which passed the House yesterday, makes several changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, sometimes known as food stamps). The changes would deliver Republicans a long-sought policy goal to extend one of the program’s two work requirements, which will now be imposed on older, able-bodied, childless adults aged 50 to 54. But President Biden is selling his caucus on the idea that he actually outfoxed Republicans on the deal, by pointing to exemptions from this work requirement granted to three vulnerable populations: homeless individuals, veterans, and young people recently out of foster care.

On Tuesday, the Congressional Budget Office sided with Biden’s version of the argument. CBO estimates that the deal on the whole would actually raise SNAP participation by 78,000, leading to a slight increase (about $2.1 billion over ten years) in spending. This has triggered gloating by Democratic partisans, who believe the right-wing effort to deny food to impoverished people has been neutralized.

In the near term, the CBO score may cause more upheaval among Republicans intent on slashing funding on social programs. But it’s also a misleading evaluation of how SNAP is administered, according to anti-hunger organizations that handle outreach to the program’s users.

These organizations question many of the theoretical assumptions made by CBO in scoring the food aid provisions, which fail to take into account the reality of implementing these new policies. They instead argue that the work requirements on older Americans will lead to the largest restrictions on SNAP since welfare reform in 1996, while the exemptions fail to account for long-standing barriers to including disadvantaged populations in SNAP. Without additional funding for the withered administrative capacity at state and local agencies, many of these groups will likely not be able to participate.

"We have far more certainty about what the impacts will be of the punitive measure in the bill than we do about the potential exemptions," said Ellen Vollinger, the SNAP program director at the Food Research and Action Center.

The able-bodied work requirement creates a time limit for nutrition assistance of a maximum of three months over a three-year period for those who do not qualify. Research has shown that this policy is a crude tool that mostly kicks people off SNAP rather than promoting greater labor market participation.

In other words, SNAP is not designed to be a jobs program.

(continue reading)

#politics #means testing #republicans #snap #food assistance #food stamps #fiscal responsibility act #tanf #work requirements #cbo #the fiscal responsibility act #fra #neoliberalism #clintonism

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awesomefringey · 1 year

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I'm so annoyed of some blogs/people that is talking about that cbo acc , like it just makes me so mad that they pay attention to it , their new shit is that we're gonna get another pics of Harry kissing a woman and also he's gonna be dad !!!!!! Ffs .

... CBO is a girl from Brasil who had her account suspended a million times because she steals content from other accounts. I mean her story is she's Niall's secret french baby mother, although she can't speak it properly at all.

Whoever still follows this troll is either a kid or new to the fandom. Or they're only here for the drama and entertainment. Or all of it together. This is really the dark side of fandom, these people are the reason Larries look so delusional to anyone else.

#ask #cbo #crownbeeolive

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gwydionmisha · 2 years

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#Bernie Sanders #CBO #Wealth Inequality #Poverty #News

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daisiesonafield-blog · 1 year

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Whos cbo? What are they sayjng?

She's a crazy woman from Brazil who has been trolling young 1D fans for like 7 years or something. All the info is in the cbo and crownbeeolive tags, just search my blog.

I have no idea what bs she's said now, but whatever it is it doesn't matter because all she does is makeup lies for her weird ass account.

STOP BELIEVING TROLLS

#cbo

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oyabuncongress · 4 months

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Best part of the song 😍

Christian Bela - Nishike Remix (Ft. Gaz Mawete)

#oyabuncongress #melanin #black beauty #black girl magic #ebony model #music afrobeat #Congo #dr congo #gaz mawete #cbo #Christian Bela #kinshasa

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voyager-fun · 4 months

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Master the Art of Online Marketing: Increase Your Online Presence and Drive Success

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In today's digital age, web marketing has actually ended up being an important tool for services of all dimensions. Whether you're a small start-up or a reputable company, having a solid on the internet presence is critical for getting to and engaging with your target market. Net marketing includes a wide variety of methods, including search engine optimization (SEO), social media marketing, e-mail advertising, material marketing, and more. By understanding the art of web marketing, you can not just enhance brand understanding but additionally drive web site web traffic, produce leads, and inevitably enhance your sales and revenue.Paragraph 2: Among the vital advantages of online marketing is its capability to target details demographics and customize marketing messages. Unlike traditional advertising methods, where reaching a wide audience can be expensive and ineffective, online marketing allows you to get to potential consumers that are already thinking about your service or products. With the aid of data-driven understandings and analytics, you can create extremely targeted campaigns and deliver tailored material that resonates with your audience. Furthermore, online marketing offers a degree of versatility and scalability that traditional marketing can not match. Whether you intend to start with a tiny budget plan or invest in a massive project, online marketing permits you to adjust your techniques and spending plans as needed, guaranteeing optimum roi(ROI). So, whether you're simply beginning or seeking to take your service to the following level, understanding the art of web marketing is essential for success in today's competitive digital landscape.

Read more here Chief Financial Officer

#CBO #CEO

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twopoppies · 1 year

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if there's new fans around, you should just block cbo - not only from ig but from your life, from your fandom experience, block the word on tumblr, on twitter, in youtube. zero attention. nothing they say it's true. period. thriving on making people anxious is shitty. they're a compulsive liar, a troll, a toxic account and that's all you need to know.

This is very out of the blue, but yes. That’s excellent advice. While you’re at it, add DeuxMoi to that list. I’d say add that troll, v*siblybi, but does anyone even pay attention to him now that Olivia is gone? Either way, he’s also trash.

#cbo #fandom trolls

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harleysite · 2 years

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Chef bike 😎. #harleydavidson #roadglide #harleysite #roadglidecvo #harleytourer #cbo #harleycvo #harley #harleys #harleysofinstagram #harleygirlseuropa #harleydavidsonmotorcycles #harleydavidsoncvo #harleydavidsontouring #harleylife https://www.instagram.com/p/ChnMa-_o5c6/?igshid=NGJjMDIxMWI=

#harleydavidson #roadglide #harleysite #roadglidecvo #harleytourer #cbo #harleycvo #harley #harleys #harleysofinstagram #harleygirlseuropa #harleydavidsonmotorcycles #harleydavidsoncvo #harleydavidsontouring #harleylife

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laitbu · 1 year

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What I mean by blending Wellness into Branding

There is a palpable shift happening in the world of Branding. Companies are beginning to realize that customers - and team members - are seeking more than just a product or service or a company to work for - they are seeking an experience. And this is where the concept of wellness comes into play.

Incorporating wellness into Branding is about more than just offering healthy options at meal time or promoting self-care at random. It's about creating a sense of hospitality, a feeling of being taken care of and valued. It's about understanding that our customers and team are human beings with needs that extend beyond the purely transactional. It’s about deeply blending empathy into all interactions.

At laitbu, we understand the importance of wellness, and how hospitality comes into play, in Branding better than anyone. We are a hospitality-forward Brand Agency, meaning that we approach Branding with the same level of care and attention to detail that a five-star hotel would approach their guests (this includes team culture).

This means that we take the time to truly understand our clients'/guests’/teams’ needs and desires. We work to create a Brand experience that speaks to all of those needs on a deep and meaningful level. We don't just slap a logo on a product and call it a day - we create an entire universe of experiences that our customers can immerse themselves in.

And why do we do this? Because we believe that the Brands that will truly succeed in the future are those that prioritize not just the guest experience but the humans behind the Brand.

‘Great Brands Empower People.’ - laitbu

By incorporating wellness and hospitality into Branding, we are able to create Brands that stand out from the competition. Brands that offer something more than just a product or service - they offer an experience that holistically nourishes people.

But don't just take our word for it - the numbers speak for themselves. Brands that prioritize the customer experience see higher customer satisfaction rates, increased customer loyalty, and higher profits. And isn't that what every business owner wants?

So if you're looking for a Brand Agency that truly understands the importance of wellness, and hospitality, in Branding, you’ve come to the right place. We aim to be the Best Brand Agency in the world for those Brands making a positive impact on the world, and we are committed to creating/nurturing Brands that stand the test of time.

Immerse yourself in our universe of experiences, and let us show you what hospitality-forward Branding is all about.

• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •

patronage welcome:

venmo: @laitbu

cashapp: @laitbu

paypal: paypal.me/laitbu

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wwwdlabrie · 1 year

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🎂 #HappyBirthday #KDoe RIP 😢 14 year Anniversary 2/7 my #Oakland brotha & Rhyme partner, founder of #KMidas Records , @RDV_promo artist & @hiphopcongressinc activist 📸 #HipHop Legend @Cbowcm + DLabrie & KDoe with the "Bay Area Rap Awards" #BarsAwards #SanFrancisco #CBo __________ Who still has KDoe most popular Mixtape #ONTHERISE If so Post a picture and tag #RIPKDDoe We going to get this back up @bandcamp & Streaming Soon #LinkinBiO Fun Fact: We added a Bonus Track to "On The Rise" 1 of #DLabrie mixtape songs "FeelUs ft. @kirbydominant @lifeafterhiphop @amonnk and an added KDoe verse ...Story Continued from Last post...👂🏿 to his Mixtape on the Way to San Jose and I 📱him. At this time I'm not realizing we went to @castlemonthigh together & had so many mutual friends that we would later Unite into a new movement. I had been living in SJ a couple years & of course we were older + in #EastOakland everybody look familiar. It's 1 degree of separation. I still hadn't put it together yet. But just on Town 🖤 shit i called him to talk about his mixtape & we started building so I started inviting him to shows & studios. We were always vibin and creating good music so I asked him to join the group I had formed The #ALLIANCwithNoE w/ @e.s.o_belizean & @____jadaaaaaaa____ @dre_kash ...Story Continued next post... #RonDavouxRecords Also made a Tribute Playlist w/ KDoe music, Live Videos & Interviews, Collabs, Shows + @Eastbayexpress & @mrDaveyD articles about his passing 🔗 in Bio 👀 All this content about KDizzle aka "Kenneth Poynter" aka "Casey Poynter" He would appreciate you showing love to his passion & Vision 🔗 in Bio + #RDV still plans to re-release KDoe #Mixtapes & albums he had out like this street classic "On the Rise" and other projects he was working on like #HigherElevation If you have songs, features, tributes, interviews or video clips w him you want included. Dm us the songs or 🔗s we will include them on Playlist or Posthumous projects and give you proper credit or publishing send to [email protected] #MrNETW3RK #RDVpromo #RDVcrew #RonDaVOODOO #Castlemont #CastlemontHighSchool #ALLIANC #KMidasRecords #HipHopCongress #HHC #Rap #Music (at San Francisco, California) https://www.instagram.com/p/Cpi8a32sMBP/?igshid=NGJjMDIxMWI=

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awesomefringey · 1 year

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When you've been in the fandom for a while, it's easy to predict things, I do it all the time 😂, it's so fun but I don't story or tweet it, everything has a pattern. She steals all the photos she stories from everywhere, and sometimes throws things, I just can't believe that people still follow her. A long time ago I saw a SS in my TL, she said she is Niall's wife and they have a baby🤣i mean why does Niall have to hide his wife and kid? the dude isn't even gay to keep it a secret!

CBO is such bullshit. I can only imagine younger folks thinking it’s appealing or even believing there’s some truth to it.

Ummm btw my prediction for Harry’s birthday show!? “Can’t Help Falling In Love” by Elvis Presley. 👀

#ask #larry predictions 2023 #lol #cbo #crownbeeolive

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