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risingmoonyue · 4 years

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The “Conan is Shinichi” Issue

So, a lot of people are frustrated that no one seems to be able to figure out that Conan is Shinichi.

Personally, I’ve never really had a problem with this. I’ve always found it to be perfectly logical that’s no one figures it out.

Here’s the thing: it’s completely realistic that no one realizes.

Even if he tends to act like “Shinichi”, looks like him, and is (almost) never in the same room as Shinichi, it’s still reasonable that no one puts the pieces together.

Y’see, the thing is, if you hadn’t seen your friend in a while (one that has a more or less excuse to be away long periods of time), and suddenly a tiny child shows up and acts a lot like him, your first thought isn’t going to be crap my friend shrunk on me. That won’t even be your second, fifth, or twentieth thought unless you’re joking around or highly superstitious. Realistically, your first thought is going to be along the lines of this is a really freaky coincidence. The reason most people will brush off the thought of shrunk is that shrinking is, in the minds of those people, impossible.

“But Yue, shrinking very clearly isn’t impossible in the DCMK universe! And there are people who have figured it out there! What about them?!”

To answer those questions in order—most people believe it is, and those have all (at least peripherally) been given reasons for their belief,

In that universe, shrinking isn’t exactly common, even if it seems like it’s a really, really obvious condition considering we’re reading/watching from the perspective of Shinichi. In that universe, Shinichi and the readers have fully acknowledged and comprehended for the most part that shrinking is a truth, a possibility, a reality. Now, every time we watch another person not get it, we’re watching as people who have been in the know from the very beginning. In other words, we are being affected by a kind of hindsight bias.

Hindsight bias is a term in psychology that refers to the tendency for people to overestimate their own abilities and to perceive events in the past as more predictable than they actually were—also known as the “I-knew-it-all-along” syndrome. The reason I bring this up is because we are all seriously overestimating the uninformed mind. While many people are open to beliefs, to them seeing is believing. People thought the earth was flat because they cannot see the earth’s curve—it is so large that everything in our field of view appears flat. People thought the sun rotated around the earth because it rose in the east and set in the west, while we seemingly didn’t move at all. Things like that happen all the time. While it seems obvious to us, the readers/watchers who have all the information, it is not nearly so obvious to outsiders, who really only see a really smart, kinda creepy seven year old who gives emotional whiplash and watches too much TV.

Plato’s allegory of the cave can also be applied here: without the knowledge of the “outside,” it becomes impossible to imagine a world beyond your “cave.”

Basically, they’ve never seen a real shrunken person; science hasn’t figured it out yet; people grow taller and wider and only shrink a few inches in old age; never happened in recorded history; therefore shrinking ten years is impossible. Which, let's be real, in the real world it is.

Moving on to the people “in the know” (or almost in the know), they have all been given reasons, if peripherally, for believing so.

(If you don’t know how these people know, I’m bolding all the names as they pop up so you can skip them as wanted.)

In Ran and Hattori’s case, they both are shown to be open-minded to the unexplainable. Ran is outright afraid of the supernatural, and Hattori keeps his omamori and listens to his vaguely prophetic dreams (chapters 185-188/episode 118). While the omamori can be argued as sentiment and not wanting to anger Kazuha, he also gives said omamori to Conan when they have to separate, saving his life later when the chain inside catches on the knife stabbed at Conan like he dreamed. In both cases, they are both willing to see what might be there instead of completely waving it off as “false” (even if it takes a few times).

For Ran, she actually has figured it out on several occasions (even attributing the shrinkage to Agasa once), but was provided a logical, easy to see explanation for why Conan looks and acts like Shinichi, even if it seems a little too good to be true—they are related, however distantly, and Conan admires Shinichi.

People develop through both Nature and Nurture—in other words, both via genes and their environment. Genes are endlessly complicated, sometimes coming into effect generations down the line, and kids can pick up almost anything from their surroundings. Heck, some genes are affected by the environment they’re placed in. Some of the most obvious ones are behavioral—take alcoholism for example. If alcoholism runs in the family, putting yourself or a child in an environment where you/they will be able to decide not to can in turn make it so that gene never comes into play. (Think just abstaining from alcohol altogether as you grow to be of drinking age.)

So we take into consideration that they may have gotten really lucky in the gene pool (there have been instances of doppelgängers not being related for over nine generations), and that in their story Shinichi was around Conan enough for him to start admiring him and learning things from him, and suddenly we have a reasonable explanation of why Ran would accept that explanation. Heck, Shinichi already has a double in Kaito, why not one more (admittedly fake) clone?

For Hattori, he was never really given that explanation as far as I know, only that Conan was a kid that was staying with the Mouri family while Shinichi was gone. Now, take in his open mindedness, his detective skills, and his first-hand experience of how “Sleeping Kogoro” happens, and we know how he puts two and two together. He is even willing to run his theory by Ran, forcing Conan to confirm it to stop Hattori from blowing his cover. Basically, he adhered to the basic scientific process—form a question, make a hypothesis, test it.

For Agasa, he actually didn’t believe at first. Shinichi had to prove without a shadow of a doubt that he was Shinichi, saying things no one else would know and putting on a characteristic deduction show while blatantly showing off some of his “Shinichi” habits (peace sign, facial expressions, freaky deduction of exactly what Agasa did that afternoon, calling Agasa “Watson”). Agasa has also known Shinichi his whole life, and is a “mad scientist” archetype. He makes it his job to make weird, wacky things.

For Haibara, she made the APTX. In the First Episode Movie, we see in her experiments that one of the mice shrinks. She knows this is possible, and is even experiencing the effects herself. She doesn't need anything else to prove it because she already knows it is a truth. With this knowledge, it’s really easy to put it together. She even checked the Kudo household and found the box of Shinichi’s childhood clothes empty, and later ended up with Agasa, who obviously knows everything.

For Kaito KID in the Movie Verse (as that is, as far as I know, the only confirmed verse where he actually knows), he overheard Agasa calling Conan “Shinichi” over the phone. In Magic Kaito, we see that Kaito actually has a witch as a classmate, who has continuously tried to use magic on him. He knows this exists, so he is already much, much more open to impossibilities. He knows more than a lot of other people just how smart Conan is, and also knows that any time he disguises as “Shinichi”, Conan immediately figures him out.

Really, there are even more people who know who “Conan” is, but I think we get the picture. People have reasons for believing that Conan is Shinichi, and while they are not explicitly stated in canon, they are there.

So yeah, that’s my blurb on the whole Conan/Shinichi issue, thank you for coming to my TED Talk. What are your guys’ thoughts?

#dcmk #edogawa conan #detective conan #kudo shinichi #kaito kid #kuroba kaito #haibara ai #hiroshi agasa #mouri ran #hattori heiji #writing #my writing #secret identities #thank you for coming to my ted talk #can you see that im a psychology student?

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kate837 · 4 years

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Not a Game

AU edition of Rich's attempted get away after the Akkadian.

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It turns out that Rich actually had tampered with their system. And of course he did, he's Rich Dotcom. Thank God for Patterson, she was the only one smart enough to find Rich. Once she did the team swooped in and rearrested him. That's when it started, Kurt had at least been civil to Jane while in front of Rich but now....

"It's just nice to know that people don't change. " He said with a furrowed brow and small smirk. Everyone on that team knew what he was doing, trying to get at least one little dig at Jane in.

Jane didn't let her smug smile towards Rich fade and made sure to move her mouth as little as possible, because she knew Rich could very well read lips, when she very discreetly cautioned "This isn't a game you want to play with me. "

Kurt glanced down at her and she glared up at him. Rich cocked his head to the side, he knew something was up but this definitely confirmed it. Rich didn't really take Kurt as a "petty" Person so to have him obviously take a secret dig at Jane was surprising and h*lla confusing.

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Reade recuffed Rich, and Tasha cuffed Boston. Patterson walked each of them to the SUV they personally were driving them in to take them back to SIOC to wait for the actual prisoner transport to arrive.

Meanwhile Kurt grabbed Jane by the arm and tugged her to the opposite side of the prisoner transport truck, the side that was secluded.

Jane shook out of his grip frustrated. Kurt was very obviously about to scold her but she beat him to it.

" Let me guess, I'M out of line because you took a dig at me,right? "

Kurt pointed at Jane while he talked.

"Now you listen to me-"

"No you listen to me. You think I don't know what you're doing?! Every single chance you get you somehow find a way to take a petty dig at me and I. Am. Done. Kurt. I'm done! I thought that you would at least refrain in front of Rich but I guess I overestimated your character." She whisper yelled.

"Jane I-"

"Save it. Because of your relentless need to put me down we are going to have a very long wait for actual prisoner transport to get Rich. Filled with questions, accusations, and my personal favorite ridiculous inappropriate commentary because you couldn't keep it together." Jane took a breath and recuperated. "Look, I understand your resentment, but I can't do this anymore."

"What do you mean -can't do this- Jane?"

"Don't make me say it, we both know that there was and is a this."

Kurt clenched his jaw and looked away.

"I have been clenching my teeth and stomaching all of the hatred thrown at me because I more than anyone know that I-messed-up, I was in the wrong. I know that so if you need to keep insulting me to be able to be in the same room with me than I will tolerate it but I just-"

"Just what, Jane?"

"I need a break Kurt! At very least in front of Rich. I deserve at least that much"

Before Kurt could apologize or even try to form some sort of apology she walked away.

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Back in interrogation Jane and Weller are sitting across from Rich waiting on the actual prisoner transport crew to arrive, which is going to take a while since it's now 3 in the morning.

They all were exhausted so there was a silence in the room for the first five minutes, at least until Rich got his second wind.

"So Jane from my understanding you're a consultant but wear an FBI vest and not just an FBI vest a Critical Response Team vest especially made for special agents. You're allowed in the field and undercover, but you are not an FBI agent. Why?"

Jane's eyes widened. She forgot that other than being an absolute moron Rich is a genius.

Rich studied Jane's reaction then turned to Kurt who lowered his gaze at him but wasn't glaring.

"You know I don't really care why-"

"Then why did you ask?" Jane asked confused.

"To analyze. See the last time I was here when I even tried to utter a word that could be somewhat remotely close to resembling you I got a death glare from agent Stubbly over here. But not this time, and he might just be tired I get that but something is definitely off. Because 2, you didn't look to Kurt. Whenever someone asks you a question, or figures out a piece of the puzzle, or anything really you look to Kurt first. And you didn't you stared at me, or the wall, the ceiling, the floor, but not Kurt. So what the h*ll is going on here?! And tell me the truth."

Rich was abnormally serious, it was actually quite frightening.

"Look Rich we're tired, and there's nothin-" Jane tried to salvage the conversation.

"This isn't a game you want to play with me."

Jane looked down, she thought she was subtle enough. Guess not.

"Do those words ring a bell Janie?"

Kurt finally steps in.

"Alright enough. It's too early AND too late for this. Rich, Jane and I's history is none of your d*mn business. You are an informant that's all, what my team does and does not do is also none of your business. Is that clear?"

Jane was astonished. He stood up for her! The thought that maybe just maybe they actually would be ok was inevitably spiraling around her brain and put a very faint smile on her face. But was immediately wiped away.

"I know how childish this sounds but Rich I need a break!"

There it was. Another dig. But this one didn't just hurt, it stung. Mimicking her words from earlier, the words she used as pure honesty. She needed just one day to not be reminded of the resentment, one hour even. She was vulnerable with him and he called it childish?? CHILDISH?!?!

Jane stifled her involuntary gasp, clenched her teeth and tried to keep her eyes from stinging with tears. It was too much.

"You had to do it didn't you?"

Her voice came out shaky and hoarse, she walked out immediately leaving Rich completely and utterly stunned and Kurt stilled in place.

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Rich leaned forward in his chair.

"What in the literal h*ll is wrong with you?"

"Excuse me?" Kurt had a dangerous look in his eye which Rich would have found unbelievably hot if he hadn't been outraged with his behavior.

"One of THE most amazing women in the world, and trust me I would know I have met my fair share of international women, is whole heartedly in love with you and you take her heart and perform emotional acupuncture on it every single chance you get! So I'll ask again what-in-the-literal-h*ll-is-wrong-with-you?!"

Kurt stood up to leave but quickly remembered that one of them had to keep an eye on Rich and with Jane's storming out he was on full-time babysitting duty.

He slowly pulled his chair back out and sat down. His posture was slumped like his shoulders weighed a thousand pounds each and he steadily looked at the table. He looked so... Sad.

"Look, you and I both know that I have an unhealthy amount of investment in you and Jane's relationship. I don't actually know why either, it just kind of happened. Kurt there is something special about the two of you, something you only see in the movies. It's magical, it's an energy, it's an aura, it's... Well it's everything. I know that you can salvage it because I know you'll want to, or do want to. You just don't know how. You've spent so much of your life closed off to the world that it became easy, a defense mechanism that was completely foolproof. Until Jane, Jane was unprecedented for you she wormed her way through every single defense you had then I'm guessing tore you apart from the inside."

Kurt cleared his throat, obviously choking back tears. He was hurt but never hurt enough to cry in front of Rich Dotcom.

"But that's the thing with love, it's a power. And once you hand that power over to someone they can completely destroy you. Tear you apart limb from limb while you stand there and watch, because you still love them. That's the kind of love you and Jane have, Jane could break your left kneecap and you still wouldn't hurt a hair on her head."

Aside from their fight in the Motel but Kurt chose not to correct him.

"She broke you but she can build you back up again with one smile if you let her."

Kurt finally looked up at Rich when the door opened and in walked prisoner transport, Kurt made a beeline for the door, he couldn't have more agents seeing him like this.

"ONE SMILE KURT! THAT'S ALL IT WILL TAKE!"

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Jane was still in the locker room. She would have went home but she knew that she couldn't make it in her state of mind. It would have been as dangerous as walking home drunk. Except she was more afraid of the risk of her snapping and killing someone than she was of getting mugged.

So there she was on the bench in the locker room almost in a catatonic like state. She thought that once she was alone she would have broke down in sobs but this, well this was much much worse. Thoughts and memories were swirling around her brain like a emotional turmoil whirlpool.

You'remystartingpointyouneedtolistentomehappybirthdayJanepizzaorhotdogswithhushpuppiesthere'saparkattheendofmystreetyou'reagoodpersonJanekeepthemsafeyou'renotakillernicehaircutthatmeansIcandothis

It was paralyzing.

Until her train of thought was interrupted by the door opening.

"Jane we need to talk."

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Kurt approached the opposite side of the bench to sit.

"Please don't."

"Jane we need-"

"I don't want to talk to you, I'm never going to be ready to talk to you."

"I know but-" Kurt approached again.

"Do. Not. Sit. Near. Me" Jane commanded through gritted teeth.

Kurt obeyed opting to stand in front of her but not directly, and just out of arm's reach just in case she lashed out.

"I'm sorry, Jane. For everything. I went too far, I pushed you too far."

Jane humorlessly chuckled.

"You pushed-. You say you don't hate me, then you push me, you say that you tried to murder the man who hurt me then you push me, you defend me, you protect me, you simultaneously keep me by your side and at arms length, you smile at me then you push me, you-" Jane's voice cracked after having so much bite in it, it's such a dramatic change in tone. "You know exactly how to get my hopes up just to squander them. So no Kurt the problem isn't that you pushed me too far. It's that you pushed me too much."

"You have to believe Jane, that I am so sorry."

He knew he had to say more. He at least owed her that much.

He sighed deeply.

"I've never been good at opening up to people. After the incident, before my mother took off she put me in therapy after therapy trying to get me to open up to someone. It never worked. Some people may have even called me stubborn."

Jane tried not to smile, but Kurt could tell that she was holding back and it made him feel a little better.

"Anyways, whenever I went to the actual appointment I would just sit there and stare at the wall, my hands, my feet, for a whole hour and a half. I even made some of my therapists believe that I was mute, that was until my mother would pick me up and ask what I would like to eat when I get home and I would scream at the top of my lungs MEAT!"

Against Jane's will she let out the softest chuckle, and Kurt couldn't help but think

It really does only take one smile.

"Eventually the therapists would refer me somewhere else because they needed to tend to the patients who wouldn't -waste their time- and the cycle would continue. I wouldn't talk to anyone at school either, and I couldn't talk to Sarah. I was her protector, her rock. I couldn't fall apart on her. So I learned to build walls. The walls allowed me to keep moving forward, they allowed me to take care of my sister while everything in me wanted to run away and never come back. They kept me sane."

Kurt cleared his throat.

"H*ll I hadn't cried in about twenty years, until you showed up."

Jane's gaze flicked towards him at lightning speed.

"With one touch of your hand on my cheek, something in me broke. All of a sudden all of my walls that protected me came crashing down, letting you waltz in. Which was why the day I arrested you I was a wreck. All of the hurt and pain wasn't stopped by my walls. You destroyed me; You know I literally had a pain in my chest when I arrested you. Like my heart couldn't take it. Which was why the CIA was even able to take you in the first place. I placed you in the interrogation room and walked out. I was going to wait for Pellington then interrogate you but I had this awful constricting pain in my chest that I had never felt before. It was too much. I couldn't scream, I couldn't cry. I just blacked out. An agent eventually found me lying in the hallway and had me taken down to medical. They said that I was most likely -overwhelmed- and I said what about the pain in my chest and you know what they said-"

Jane was enthralled. She couldn't look away.

"They said that there was no -medical explanation for it- I was healthy. Then one of the nurses asked if I had been hurt emotionally in the past 24 hours. I asked why and she said that -studies have proven that heartbreak can actually cause a string in your heart to break- hence the name heartbreak. She said that it was highly probable. After twenty years of not feeling you come and you make me feel alive then you break one of my heartstrings."

"Oh."

"So Jane you have to understand that I am trying to cope but there is no excuse for my behavior, I will change I promise I will. I'm just- I'm just hurt Jane." Kurt said finally letting a couple of tears spill over.

"That makes two of us." Jane says letting a lone tear streak her face.

"Can I please sit now? My legs are killing me." Kurt says jokingly.

Jane laughs.

"Come here."

Kurt takes the invitation and drops to his knees in between her legs and hugs her. They hold onto each other tightly, while Kurt keeps whispering apologies in her ear.

"I really love you, you know that?"

"I know"

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#Angsty angst #Jeller #Rich4life #Kurt gets a reality check #Not a game #I love this fandom #I'm trying to post more since the show is ending #I don't want the fandom to just disappear #LOVE YOU ALL 💖💖💖#angst #jeller angst

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whitestonetherapy · 4 years

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Negativity... (2.9.19)

If you're anything like me, you'll know that sometimes your mind can be your own worst enemy.

Most of us have times that our mind can't settle - times when we're prone to making just about every 'thinking error' in the book. Catastrophising, jumping to worst conclusions, making generalisations that are unhelpful, being highly self-critical etc. We might find ourselves increasingly focusing on the negative side of life and feeling pessimistic.

When this happens we'll often give more thought to negative situations in our lives. We might think of all the things that could go wrong at work next month, or dwell on the times we've been treated badly in the past. Then it's easy to get stuck in a loop of unhelpful thinking. Roughly speaking, when you focus on the negative, your mood becomes lower, and so you focus more on the negative things. Boom...

The human brain has an inbuilt bias that tends to veer towards focusing on 'negatives', and this is just part of how the human brain seems to work. We also have a tendency to notice the bits of information that support our state of mind (and so 'the way we see the world'). This means, for example, that if we are in a bad mood we're more likely to remember any unfriendly interactions when we visit our local town. Dwelling on these unfriendly interactions will reinforce our low mood and may reinforce an idea that "other people are rude to me", and over time this becomes a fixed prediction for how people are likely to treat me in future. (And so our negative predictions begin to colour future interactions).

In scenarios like this, friendly social interactions are more likely to be ignored, and we'll assign more focus and attention to the negative experiences we have. These become 'proof' of our theory about others.

This kind of inbuilt cognitive bias plays a big part in therapy too. In therapy sessions sometimes people will say "I want to be happy" - something I can definitely understand. But it is a fact that our brains are not evolved to produce happiness but to focus on survival. Problem-solving has been the chief concern of the human brain for all of our evolutionary history. The main goal of the brain is to solve potential problems, to automate tasks and take the need for conscious thinking out of as many of our daily tasks as possible, and to make 'predictions' to ensure we survive.

This means we have natural default settings in our minds that ensure we allocate much more attention to problems than we do to situations which go according to plan. It is because of this tendency to focus on solving problems (above, say, counting our blessings), that our perceptions of the world can become quite skewed, often to the pessimistic side of things.

Hans Rosling (a Swedish researcher) quite famously demonstrated this tendency in a piece of research in 2013. His research asked the question: " Has the percentage of the world population that lives in extreme poverty almost doubled, almost halved or stayed the same over the past 20 years?" Only 5% of respondents correctly answered that poverty has actually halved. Our bias towards pessimism or a negative appraisal of situations sometimes means we can be really, really wrong... In fact, this is the case with almost every quality-of-life metric. Things have improved so much in the last fifty years, and yet the sense of pessimism remains high.

Like moths to a flame, we seem to be particularly drawn to 'problems' in all forms. In 2014 a study at McGill University examined people's consumption of written news media and looked at the stories participants chose to read in what they thought was an eye-tracking experiment. What the results showed was that even the participants who said they wanted more good news stories were much more drawn to 'negative news content'. And in the absence of any sizeable problems, our minds will often work overtime to create some new ones - to find some new angle, some new (hitherto unimportant) issue on which to rest our attention and focus our concerns.

This is partly due to "prevalence-induced concept change", a theory that suggests that as the prevalence of a problem is reduced, humans are naturally inclined to redefine and broaden the nature of 'problems' themselves. This means that as things improve all around us, our definition of 'bad news' is just widened to find new things that are bad to report on. We recast our 'problems' and simply discover a load more of them. I suppose this is far more common in the developed, capitalist, liberal West (where to some extent the 'problems' that have made life miserable for countless generations before the last several have now been solved) than in developing nations. And so we see a recasting of 'problems' in new and unresolvable directions, one example being the current obsessional focus on 'identity politics'. Closer to home, I recently spent many hours looking at YouTube reviews for a new iPhone, obsessing about a choice between LCD or OLED screens as though something serious depended on my choice (both screens are far better than anything remotely possible even five years ago - and both are effectively identical to the normal eye). Perhaps it fills the time in the absence of survival-critical problems...

We are also subject to something called "availability bias". This bias was noted in a study by Tversky and Kahneman in the 1970's, whereby respondents seriously overestimated the frequency of crime, due to the overwhelming reporting of crime on the news. Random violence or sudden, explosive bad things make the news because they shock and happen suddenly. Good news - such as acts of kindness - are common and tend to form part of the clement background conditions in which life unfolds. The good news doesn't have the power to make a sudden splash that changes perceptions that, say, warfare, accidents or disasters have. Bad news is sudden and explosive, and so is exaggerated in our minds. Real tragedies are thankfully rare, but never in history has each tragedy had such global coverage.

So, bad news arrives in ways that are far more eye-catching than good news. Then our mind focuses on problem-solving in ways that exclude more positive appraisals of the situation. In evolutionary terms, it simply makes sense for us to dwell more on risks.

Add to this that people tend to think in relative and not absolute terms. It matters how you are doing compared to others around you, far more than it matters how you are doing in a general sense. This is why, whatever goal we reach, we experience a short burst of euphoria before quickly resetting and then taking for granted our new situations. It's why, for example, acquiring a new car only brings temporary satisfaction, before the problem becomes, say, a small scratch we've noticed on the rear bumper. It's why a big promotion and pay rise quickly leads to wondering whether the person next to you was given an even bigger pay rise. When things get better in our lives, this relativizing behaviour means we quickly reset our expectations and focus on the next set of problems.

During my years trading derivatives, I remember we would leave the trading floor and go to one of the pubs in Leadenhall Market after the close of the trading day. One topic always came up - "losing trades". You'll always find traders talking at great length about losing trades. In fact, many traders remember their losing trades and losing days for far longer than they remember profitable days. It's the days that everything goes against you that stick in your mind.

This is a long way round of saying that it's actually very hard to overcome your tendency to dwell on the negative side of things! People often say "I don't want to feel so negative about everything", and it's useful to understand that your brain is doing what it is evolved to do.

But this can be debilitating if it runs unchecked. We can try and counter this tendency and bring some balance to our inner-lives, and it is possible to take steps in this direction. There's lots of way of approaching this, but here are some questions you can ask yourself if you find yourself stuck in a cycle of negative thinking. You can check your thinking by asking:

Where is the evidence for my belief(s)?

What impact is this way of thinking having on me?

Am I jumping to conclusions?

Is there any evidence to disprove my belief?

Am I concentrating on my weaknesses, and neglecting my strengths?

Am I taking things too personally?

Am I thinking in all-or-nothing terms?

Am I overstating the chances of something bad happening?

Am I predicting the outcome instead of experimenting with it?

Am I expecting total perfection?

Am I being open to evidence that 'disproves' my worst fears?

If I had to come up with a more balanced/helpful belief, what would this belief be?

If you have a problem situation in your life, you can try sitting down somewhere and taking twenty minutes to write out answers to these questions. Really explore your own style of thinking. If you spend some time doing this, you'll begin to condition yourself to avoid getting stuck in a spiral of negative thinking and hopefully more able to take a balanced view of your life.

www.whitestonetherapy.com

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ganymedesclock · 6 years

Note

So I recently checked our your We Hallowed Few fanfic and it's really interesting and enjoyable so far. If you don't mind, do you think you could tell me what each character is supposed to be (their race and such?)

Thank you very much for your time and interest in Hallowed! I’m not totally sure if I’m correctly interpreting their question but, here goes, talking about inspirations and motifs on the main characters.

As far as race goes I tried to keep that relatively standard to this fantasy world. So the characters’ names aren’t just legacies from canon. Shiro is still, functionally, Japanese. I say “functionally” because I’m not saying “in Hallowed, a world with fantasy everything else, there is just the entire unchanged nation of Japan and I just maybe changed the name”. I’ve never really liked the “fantasy nation just thinly veiled adaptation of [x] real-world country” since I feel like that can lead to bad roads. However, Shiro is canonically Japanese, and that, like him being canonically disabled, is something I wanted to retain, so I did.

More specific notes on Hallowedverse characters, their capabilities, and their sorta walks of life to follow under the cut.

Shiro

My concept on Shiro in Hallowed is that the Arusian crown was there for him sort of the way the Garrison seems to have been in canon. For one reason or another he didn’t really have parents, so he was trained as a page then a squire and became a knight because he wanted to do good in the kingdom. In Hallowed we’re shamelessly operating off high fantasy’s concept of knighthood rather than real feudal history so Shiro’s no landed noble, nor is he of particularly aristocratic background. Except for the whole “was mysteriously spirited away for a year of his life and might be undead now” thing, he’s a guy of pretty humble background.

That said, he has distinguished himself positively among his peers- in the chapter that debuts Allura and Thace I did have them discuss that he’s actually a knight captain in rank, so, modest leadership position. In contrast to canon he’s a little more stable but also a little more... prone to hiding his issues since again, the crown and the Order of the Lion was there to pick him back up again after his escape. This is a Shiro who wasn’t sprung from Garrison custody by the rest of the team the way he was in canon, so on the one hand he’s given a stabler environment to get his feet back under him, but on the other, missing hand, he also has gone a good while without any answers, so he boils out to still pretty stressed, but in different ways.

I’m honestly really amused that Monsters and Mana gave Shiro a sword-and-shield fighting style almost exactly like his Hallowed self because it just feels really vindicating, like, “I called it!” That said Hallowed Shiro is more of a horseback fighter. That gives him more mobility, a better vantage point, and, likewise, the ability to better coordinate a battlefield.

Ultimately for Shiro, at least, hollow Shiro- not the one Keith’s used to- I went for this very classic knightly vibe because it just fits him so well. This is exactly what Shiro would want to be. For a person of such a strict sense of morals and such a powerful drive to right wrongs, the Knight In Shining Armor is an incredibly powerful symbol and living in a world where that’s normal would be just as captivating to him as it’s shown to be in canon.

Keith

Keith is a lot more of a vagrant than his canon self and he’s a little more self-sufficient and withdrawn. Because of Shiro’s situation, Keith didn’t have nearly as much of that steadying presence but he was able to travel, and familiarize himself with the wilderness. It’s helped him hone his senses more but he’s also more of a defeatist about interactions and other people.

Especially because unlike in canon, this version of Keith has a much more refined sense of “otherness”. He’s known he’s not like most people, not quite like his father, not really like anyone around him. Honestly, certain amounts of Keith play into changeling lore, not that he was switched at birth but this sort of... nonhuman entities that live among humans and can “pass” but only mostly.

Hallowed Keith’s whole fighting style is basically that he goes ‘swhink’ real fast. That blood sword of his basically can punch right through most conventional metals and most things behind it, so the fact that he’s a malnourished kid with absolutely zero armor or even a healthy amount of body fat who the average well-fed adult could grab by the ankle and swing means that it’s a damn good thing he’s light on his feet.

Maybe, someday, this kid will get decent armor. Not shoes, though. He’s pretty obstinate about those.

Lance

It’s kinda fun that the guy who doesn’t really canonically have “destiny” powers most of the time be one of the only people with nonhuman lineage. Technically he’s still a pretty normal person, though; there’s a lot of people in the islands Lance calls home with mer ancestry so really all it is, is adding some fantastical color to his family which is already really important to him. In a setting where everyone’s bumping elbows in the same planet rather than separated by the expanse of space, there’s going to be a lot of interrelation and in some places, shared culture.

And Lance is an ideal person to explore that, since he’s kinda got that broader sociological lens as a Leg Pilot. He’s a good way to explore worldbuilding because his story is rooted a lot in who he is and where he comes from in a wider sense. In earlier drafts of the story he was a more conventional selkie-like merfolk who could shed his scale skin to grow legs, but I ended up focusing his nonhuman traits down to just his throat, just his voice.

I talked about this a bit in the replies on the work itself, but how Lance’s “charm” works is he’s able to encourage emotions in people. It’s not mind control, but influencing how people feel for a short duration. He uses this with his, Hunk, and Pidge’s show to have everybody on the edge of their seat, but ultimately if I was giving Lance a power, I wanted it to be a very social one, something very focused on other people.

Lance isn’t really a liar or a manipulator- we’ll see other people with similar powers who are a lot more exploitative with them, but in Lance’s case, he’s got a real art for positive emotions and persuasion because that’s just kinda what he likes and focuses on. He loves people and wants them to be happy.

Weapon-wise, Lance is a longbow archer. This is not only a reflection of his canon marksmanship, but the longbow is a weapon mastered over a long time and it speaks to something I don’t think people often appreciate quite enough in Lance’s character: that as someone who’s very pointedly not a prodigy and by his own admission makes a lot of mistakes, almost everything Lance is good at is a product of his diligence and hard work.

Keith might be almost supernaturally light on his feet and the refinement of those skills snuck by without him paying attention, but Lance can drop someone he can barely see over the horizon with a well-placed arrow because he’s been running around with a child’s toy bow about as long as he’s been able to stand up straight and practiced until his fingers bled from the string.

Hunk

Hallowed Hunk I honestly didn’t plan as much as he was a natural product of his environment. In canon the team has a lot of conveniences born by the advanced technology around them but in Hallowed it’s a lot more low-tech. There’s food supplies to worry about, and someone’s got to cook it, and they need the tools to cook, and they need money, and someone needs to keep the cart in one piece and feed the horses and Blue.

Hunk is a practical problem-solver so he really kinda thrives in this. He starts out a little more obviously brash and assured as a result, but really, he’s in the same place his canon self starts, it’s just that Hallowed Hunk gets to feel like more things are in his area. He’s been traveling with Lance for a while, and while Lance is the furthest thing from helpless, Lance is also kind of a dreamer and very people focused and slightly inattentive, so Hunk might’ve started picking up slack to make things run smoothly but after a while he’s just kinda taken ownership of the operation.

I knew I wanted to conceptualize Hunk as an alchemist because I tend to in fantasy settings, but not so much as the aristocratic sage in the tower. Hunk’s alchemy is a product of him being, again, that practical person and also intensely personally curious, and he’s not a flirt like Lance, but he does like people. As he says himself, he’s running on a lot of old family recipes refined with self-taught tricks which sets a fun contrast between him and Pidge, where both are really knowledgeable, but Hunk’s knowledge is very much that of the working man’s, and since his working life has been more interesting than most’s, that’s a wide knowledge base.

While this wasn’t shown off much in the first fight the team got into, it’s worth noting that Hunk’s weapon of choice is a hooked staff. Again, Hunk is someone of practical problems and solutions, and roughly, the way he views a battle is as a series of problems that will happen very fast and need to be managed. He doesn’t have nearly as much focus on hurting his opponent as he does controlling the situation, and with his arm strength it’s very easy for him to use that hook to hoist around friend and foe alike.

The reach of his weapon and the explosives and incendiary devices he can pull off if he’s given the time to prepare make him a very daunting person to cross indeed, so he’s not exactly suffering from not having a sharpened edge on his weapon.

Pidge

People often make Pidge a full-tilt actualized wizard which isn’t awful but I think it often sort of overestimates her resources. Pidge, to me, is always this very clever but also very fifteen-year-old who’s running on just what she can carry with her, determined and ambitious but limited.

So in Hallowed, she’s got a lot of magical talent but not much training, she’s got a lot of formal studies that were very theory because in direct contrast to Hunk, Pidge has that aristocratic background. Her family wasn’t complacent, but, there’s a lot Pidge never learned to do because she never needed to. And leaving that comfortable life behind wasn’t something she regretted, but, there’s a reason she started traveling with Lance and Hunk.

Specifically I wanted to feature Pidge being kind of a chameleon, inspired directly by the Enola Holmes books with Nancy Springer. Originally I had her with this brooch that let her change her appearance but Pidge’s actual disguise magic is pretty minimal- she can change her eye colors, and the rest is makeup, wigs, fake teeth, costuming elements. She originally had a very specific practical reason for wanting to disguise herself, but, again, compared to canon she was doing this for a while- so it kind of became fun, and an exercise in self-expression.

That said, some of Pidge’s skills are a little odd for just a duchess’s daughter, which is why Hunk assumed Pidge was on the lam from some kind of criminal past. Let’s just say Pidge is not the average “runaway princess” narrative.

Other Shiro

The other Shiro was modeled first and foremost off s3e5 in canon. So he’s got the long hair, kind of ongoing fatigue problems, he’s quieter and more irritable than Knightly Shiro but a lot of that is just... he’s dealing with a lot. He’s constantly exhausted and while he feels, much like Knightly Shiro, called to do something important, he’s fighting uphill against his own body which is in a very fragile state.

Knight Shiro is kitted out by the crown, so he’s really well-equipped and has helpful things to keep him healthy and in good shape, while Other Shiro is using things that he took from the underground, and from the galra, which, while useful, were never designed with his comfort or even longevity much in mind, which is part of why he’s doing so badly.

I honestly thought it would be kind of fun to have two versions of Shiro who are both sympathetic but both, for different reasons, in different ways, seem sinister, and play on the fears or aspersions I saw people raise during clone theory. Knight Shiro is based on how, in s3e6 when Shiro “cleaned up” there were a lot of accusations about how he just. rebounded so easily and perceiving him as insincere or even creepy because he’s just, everything’s neat and tidy. Knightly Shiro is really straitlaced and friendly aesthetic and he went missing for a year, lost an arm, and was branded by practically demons but it’s fine, everything’s fine, he’s here to help, and it’s basically just a survival mantra for him because not being fine raises terrifying deep questions that he’s not really in a position to answer.

Ghost Shiro however, we’ve seen kind of an overly positive / accepting light of him through Keith but he is one freaky guy, I’ll tell you that. There’s a reason he avoids most people, and the snippet of his conversation with Lotor and the unnatural writhing of shadows, his black stone hand... Ghost Shiro was based a little off of “the champion” in canon and some of my personal meta / speculations around that. He was cast into the darkness and emerged, survived, because he made that darkness his own power. And part of that is his agreement with Lotor.

Lotor

There’s only so much I’ll say at this point about Hallowed Lotor because he’s rather deliberately kind of an enigma. There’s a good question if the person Shiro’s dealing with is actually who and what he claims to be, especially since he’s not claiming particularly much. The fun of dealing with shapeshifters who don’t appear to have any one particular default form- and he really doesn’t. Being a magpie is just his equivalent of slipping into comfy pants at the end of the day. Hitch a free ride on whoever you’re talking to and call it good.

Lotor and Shiro are shown in many regards to be able to kind of see eye to eye, and the idea of Ghost Shiro, who doesn’t really have a lot of resources since his Other is kinda taking up that narrative niche, turning to him for help struck me out of nowhere as the logical conclusion. Hallowed Lotor being a shapeshifter, he’s at both much greater and much lesser freedom than he is in canon. He and the generals don’t get to move together as a cohesive team very often, they’re more scattered, but instead he has this handful of people, Shiro included, who he can kind of draw a bead on and come back to. Ghost Shiro is pretty used to him popping up at odd intervals.

Which is fun, because it fits with Lotor’s modus operandi- Zarkon and Haggar tend to be rather obvious in the intensity of their assertions, but Lotor’s the little guy and he fights like a little guy, and in a more whimsical fantastical environment you can play with that. End result? Lotor is a lot of people’s shoulder devil. He likes to help and does appear to have some genuine sympathy for the people he bargains with, but he’s also got an agenda. And it’s not really super clear how much of either wins out in any given situation.

And poor Allura and Coran are still total mysteries at this point. We’ll get to them. Y’know. Eventually.

#voltron legendary defender #vld #Shiro #Keith #Lance #Hunk #Pidge #Lotor #We Hallowed Few #AU #readmore #thenorthernphoenix

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hindi-matribhasha · 2 years

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psychology of money - nuggets

1) There’s a common phrase in investing, usually used mockingly, that “It’s different this time.” If you need to rebut someone who’s predicting the future won’t perfectly mirror the past, say, “Oh, so you think it’s different this time?” and drop the mic. It comes from investor John Templeton’s view that “The four most dangerous words in investing are, ‘it’s different this time.’

2)There is never a moment when you’re so right that you can bet every chip in front of you. The world isn’t that kind to anyone—not consistently, anyways. You have to give your self room for error. You have to plan on your plan not going according to plan.

3)The ability to do what you want, when you want, for as long as you want, has an infinite ROI

4)The trick that often goes overlooked—even by the wealthiest —is what we saw in chapter 10: realizing that you don’t need a specific reason to save. It’s fine to save for a car, or a home, or for retirement. But it’s equally important to save for things you can’t possibly predict or even comprehend— the financial equivalent of field mice.

5)Part of the reason people like Ronald Read—the wealthy janitor we met earlier in the book—and Warren Buffett become so successful is because they kept doing the same thing for decades on end, letting compounding run wild.

6) Every job looks easy when you’re not the one doing it because the challenges faced by someone in the arena are often invisible to those in the crowd.

7) Being swayed by people playing a different game can also throw off how you think you’re supposed to spend your money. So much consumer spending, particularly in developed countries, is socially driven: subtly influenced by people you admire, and done because you subtly want people to admire you.

8) A third is that progress happens too slowly to notice, but setbacks happen too quickly to ignore.

9) Growth is driven by compounding, which always takes time. Destruction is driven by single points of failure, which can happen in seconds, and loss of confidence, which can happen in an instant. It’s easier to create a narrative around pessimism because the story pieces tend to be fresher and more recent. Optimistic narratives require looking at a long stretch of history and developments, which people

10)The more you want something to be true, the more likely you are to believe a story that overestimates the odds of it being true.

the stories we believe in shapes how we perceive value of our wealth

Everyone has an incomplete view of the world. But we form a complete narrative to fill in the gaps.

11)The illusion of control is more persuasive than the reality of uncertainty. So we cling to stories about outcomes being in our control.

No matter how much you earn, you will never build wealth unless you can put a lid on how much fun you can have with your money right now, today.

12)Independence, to me, doesn’t mean you’ll stop working. It means you only do the work you like with people you like at the times you want for as long as you want.

13)All lifestyles exist on a spectrum, and what is decent to one person can feel like royalty or poverty to another. But at our incomes we got what we considered a decent apartment, a decent car, decent clothes, decent food. Comfortable, but nothing close to fancy.

At some point you have to choose between being happy or being “right.”

14)Not being forced to sell stocks to cover an expense also means we’re increasing the odds of letting the stocks we own compound for the longest period of time. Charlie Munger put it well: “The first rule of compounding is to never interrupt it unnecessarily.”

15) I know people who think it’s insane to try to beat the market but encourage their kids to reach for the stars and try to become professional athletes. To each their own. Life is about playing the odds, and we all think about odds a little differently.

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drferox · 6 years

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20 Questions with Dr Ferox #23

Whelp, time for another blast of 20 questions and comments from the inbox. If you were brave enough to use your username I’ve tried to tag you (Thanks Tumblr) but if you were on anon, you’ll have to look yourself.

Would you folks be interested in me answering these sort of short questions in a video instead? Let me know in the replies. Now here we go!

Anonymous said: do u play mobile games on your phone, like animal crossing pocket camp? :O

No, should I? I haven't heard much about it.

@trisaratops45 said: Dr. Ferox, First off I just started following your blog and love it! I'm stuck using mobile so I can't see your faq information. I was just wondering if the clinic you work at sees any exotic or pocket pets? Of so what is your favorite to see and treat? Thank you!

Welcome! We don't see a huge amount of exotics at my clinic, we're not well set up for them, but ferrets are probably my favorites.

Anonymous said: do you follow any medblr blogs? and if you do, are you ever like 'thank goodness i don't have to deal with that' or 'man i wish it was that easy'? question tax: what is your favorite depiction of dragons from fantasy media

I actually had to go check which blogs I was following. No active medblr blogs in the list anyway. I often see real clients, in the flesh, and think 'Im glad i don't have to deal with that', especially when they describe to me their own gross medical problems as though I want to know exactly what's coming out of their orifices. All dragons are good dragons. I don't think i could pick a favorite.

@the-noble-banana said: What style of nail clippers are best for trimming a cat's claws?

Whatever you're comfortable with. I like these ones

Anonymous said: Do dogs get acne? Is that a thing? Just curious! Question tax: if you could shoot something out of your finger, what would it be?

They can get comedones with certain hormonal conditions (black heads) and can get pimple-like lesions with skin infections. I would shoot icy cold water out of my fingers. Great for hot days, and for stupid faces.

Anonymous said: Do you typically bandage and cover amputations? At the vet I worked at (I was only kennel so everything I saw was in passing) every animal who had limb amputation left after a day or two with the incision fully bandaged. My dog had her hind leg amputated and the vet (different one) had her in and out in under three hours and sent her home unbandage. Just out of curiosity is it case by case that you decide to bandage? Gave my mom a little heart attack seeing her all bloody and swollen

We might but a light dressing over them, but in an amputation of anything more than a toe there's often not much to bandage. Limb amputations are typically very high up the limb in dogs and cats and it's hard to bandage something in that position. Also, sometimes dogs eat the dressing.

@crimsonrose95 said: I'm not vet med, but I am into chemistry and physical sciences and the ask talking about chemistry being inconsistent is so weird a thought to me. Biology is way less consistent than chemistry like chemistry is mostly math with elements and compounds while biology is mostly names. It's just really interesting how most people start to think a science they don't like and have trouble in is just the science being completely inconsistent to them. Me included.

I get what you mean. Chemistry has a fairly distinct set of rules, even if they're rules you've not encountered outide of chemistry before. I was never a fan of physics, but it is consistent. Biology likes to bend rules. Life finds a way.

Anonymous said: Why does my cat yell when I try to use the bathroom alone? Question tax: what's your favorite thing about Australia?

Possibly he thinks you need moral support? Or that there's demons in there. My favorite thing about Australia is our universal healthcare system and gun control.

@foxtrottarts said: How common is dewclaw removal in dogs, and what are the benefits/downsides?

Hind dewclaw removal is relatively common at the time of deseing, if they're the sort that flop all over the place and lack a boney attachment. Front dewclaws are usually left, unless removed for a medical reason. I've written about it before here. https://drferox.tumblr.com/search/dewclaw

Anonymous said: Can a dog still have the MDR1 gene if they have never reacted to those drugs in the past (lets says a dog that has regular flea prevention of selemectin)

If the dog has only had a popular flea product containing selamectin but has never had ivermectin, yes they could still have it. MDR1 dogs typically don't react to that product, nor do they react to the annual heartworm injection.

Anonymous said: Hello, I had a question as google only takes me but so far, and the results were iffy at best since it's difficult to locate a vet or someone in a position who would know the answer. How much of a danger is animal or human saliva to pet birds? Some people say kissing the bird, or having another pet such as a dog lick/groom them is an issue, but I'm just lost on if any is true, and would love to find the answer. Thanks a ton in advance since it's all pretty confusing.

It is a potential issue. Carnivore saliva contains many bacterial species that can be devastating to birds or other mammals even through relatively small abrasions. Carnivores should not be permitted to interact with prey species and birds. Cats are especially risky because they're so pointy and because they effectively coat themselves in saliva when grooming. You can find some more information here.

Anonymous said: Hi Dr. Ferox, we recently had to put our cat down due to health issues. We're pretty sure he had FIP as the last week of his life he had every symptom but one. A website we saw said the virus can live in the environment for weeks afterwards and I was wondering if you knew any sort of approximate time. We aren't ready for another cat yet but occasionally foster a kitten and don't want to bring one into the house and have it get sick

I typically reccomnd 4 months, and replacing bedding, litter trays and food dishes. While you are probably fine with 3 months, given the incurable and devestating nature of FIP (Feline Infection Peritonitis) I prefer to err on the side of caution.

@kumoi-no-hikari said: I got a couple rats a few months ago and the lady I bought them from mentioned that most vets don't know much about rats and will probably do more harm than good unless the situation is extreme. Is that true? They haven't had any issues, but I'm worried about traumatizing them or wasting money if they ever have a problem.

Some vets will certainly be better equiped or more interested in treating rats than others, but you'll only know if you call around and ask them. If they're not keen on seeing rats, they might know somebody who is. I think saying 'most vets don't know X' is unfair when you look at the diversity of vets in the world. Call around, plan for the worst ahead of time.

Anonymous said: Do you know how taxidermy works? I plan this route for my cat when she's passes, do I have to contact them before the body stiffens or position her first?

No idea. But I would contact them well in advance incase they have waiting lists or something. But I would think very carefully about whether taxidermy of a pet is something you definitely want.

Anonymous said: Hey there! What’s your favorite brand of stethoscope?

The Littman is what I use and have been very happy with my Classic II.

Anonymous said:Our poodle mix loved grabbing a mouthful of food then running to the living room to eat it - not necessarily to be near us, he just would eat over carpet. Sometimes we'd rearrange the living room so it wasn't a direct shot from the dining room and he'd still run around the furniture to eat there. He also once pooped one piece on each stair when we were gone all day for some unfathomable reason.

There is so much that could be going on there, but since you didn't seem to ask a question I'm not sure what you'd like me to say.

Anonymous said: On the topic if dog eating things they shouldn't. A shitzu swallowed the end of a large chew bone whole and when she puked It up it was about the size of my fist.

Little dogs often seem to overestimate what they can safely eat. Westies seem to be the worst for this though, and are a common breed to see for stuff getting stuck in their oesophagus.

Anonymous said: About people thinking vets are scammers, my family was so bad with this when I was a child. I remember I had a sick kitten, I was around 8, it had some lung issues and I begged and cried to vet it and my dad said "pray really really really hard to God every hour, and maybe he'll bring a miracle!" and the cat died the next day :( I get so LIVID when people refuse taking their pets to vets for stuff that cannot wait. Makes me wanna slap those people senseless!

Your Dad sounds like a lazy asshole and a cheapskate. Even if god existed, I'm pretty sure he wouldn't appreciate being dialed up for a miracle like a pizza delivery.

Anonymous said: i just wanted to tell you that i recently adopted an older orange tabby cat (dsh) and he is large. like not just fat (which we are working on), but unusually tall and long. like. maine coon size. he has so far used his size to swipe bacon off a kitchen counter and remain an effective roadblock. he's very calm and sweet, i love my big fat baby.

Congratulations on your new addition! I'm sure your big orange boy loves you back too.

@mise-en--place said: Thought you might appreciate this. We got records on a cat today and on a previous visit they stated; "BCS 5/9. Cat appears to be about 7lbs through the gloves and towel." We got a good laugh, cat was actually quite calm for her visit.

I received a history for my old cat Dippa who had once very badly bitten this other vet that only said "Appears healthy in cage. Vaccinated in cage. Dr Ferox is welcome to come and perform a dental on her own cat any time she likes." I took that to mean "I'm not touching this hellbeast. You deal with her."

#20 questions #dr ferox #veterinarian #vetblr #animal death #death #pet death #taxidermy

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whitleyschn33 · 6 years

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“Honestly, I think it’s barbaric … What could a single Huntsmen do that an army could not? That’s why we have one.”

What if I told you that Whitley wasn’t wrong?

Huntsmen are highly trained and specialized individuals that normally take at least 7 years (4 at Beacon/regional equivalent and 3+ at a prep academy like Signal) to become considered combat ready. Class sizes don’t seem to be very large, either, if Ruby’s is anything to go by. In the episode “The First Step”, all first year students are called to the cliff. It’s difficult to tell, but I count about 16 people in total: Team RWBY, Team JNPR, Team CRDL, and one other team we’re never introduced to (Yang’s friends she mentions in episode 2 and never brings up again?). That means that if we assume that Ruby’s class size of four teams is the average and that other schools would have around the same number (remember Beacon is supposed to be the best of the schools, attracting even people from the Mistral area like Pyrrha, Ren, and Nora, so it’s possible that Beacon’s number is an overestimate), then every year is only turning out around 64 Huntsmen a year (give or take a couple of teams). Less than 75, I would say.

That may seem like a lot, but that’s for the entire world of Remnant, and Huntsmen and Huntresses don’t strike me as the type to lead long lives. It’s a dangerous job, after all, and if the 1 in 4 death rate of Team STRQ is not an unusual number, that means we could potentially cut that number down to less than 50 or so Huntsmen in those graduating classes that live past 35. That’s a really small number, and even if it’s incorrect, I’m still willing to bet that Huntsmen tend to die young and quickly. You also have to remember that they probably travel as a team most of the time, or at least are clumped in a central area to the rest of the team (otherwise why partner then team them up?), so you’re looking at 16 or so units, probably less.

So, highly specialized and few in number, but still basically the single force entrusted with the safety of Remnant? Yeah, something doesn’t seem right here. There is no way that Huntsmen can protect all of Remnant, and Remnant’s own history shows that they can’t. We’ve witnessed firsthand that villages get overrun all the time by Grimm and bandits; even the ones with Huntsmen didn’t seem to fair a whole lot better in the grand scheme of things. Clearly the Huntsmen system isn’t prepared to deal with the entire world. If those numbers above were for each continent, maybe they’d be better off, but they’re not. More numbers is definitely something Remnant desperately needs. The solution? Atlas’s armies.

Atlas seems to be headed in the right direction. Instead of sinking years of time and potentially hundreds of thousands of dollars every year into specialized soldiers that don’t have a very long lifespan, Atlas is developing soldiers that can be run off the assembly in the hundreds in a matter of days/weeks (how long does it take to make an Atlesian knight? Probably not years). Are they perfect? In their current state, are they ideal to replace Huntsmen? No, they aren’t, but they’re not ineffective either. They’ve been shown to be able to stand their own against small to mid-sized Grimm, even if they rely more on numbers than real skill. That’s a perfectly valid tactic, though, considering how disposable these Knights are. The idea is that the numbers are there to simply overwhelm the Grimm without risking human lives. They’re also still being developed. There are always new upgrades that can be put into place to give the Knights better reasoning abilities, better combative knowledge and weapons, new metals or construction designs to make them more durable/less likely to fall into hundreds of pieces, etc. Also, since they’re all identical/run on the same programming/are networked together, any group of them just thrown together is going to be able to work well together. Humans aren’t that easy. Every single Huntsmen/Huntress fights differently with different strengths, weaknesses, and abilities, and it takes a long time to get that down and work effectively as a unit. In emergencies where random people are just thrown together, they are not going to be able to fight nearly as well as they would with people they know.

TL;DR: Yes, there are going to be times when human elements are needed, where one human is more suitable for the job than a robot or a group of robots, but protecting civilians is not one of those times. Huntsmen can’t be everywhere at once, but the Atlesian Knights can. In the future, Atlesian robots will be far more effective in protecting citizens, and can be deployed to villages to help protect against the common Grimm. Huntsmen then can be deployed to deal with the truly nasty Grimm like the Nuckelavee and the Geist, rather than waste their time taking out small fry.

Whitley is right. The Huntsmen system is barbaric in that it’s outdated and no longer effective in protecting Remnant. When Remnant was made up of a few highly contained villages that could easily be defended by a couple dozen fighters, then yes, the Huntsmen system worked, but now it’s doesn’t. Now humanity is spreading out and needs more numbers to defend itself, numbers the Huntsmen Academies aren’t providing. Artificial soldiers that can be cranked out by the hundreds and thousands can provide the numbers needed to protect the villages of Remnant.

(Note: This is not taking into account that by killing Salem, you stop all the Grimm. This is solely about killing Grimm and protecting citizens, since most don’t even know about Salem’s existence.)

#whitley schnee #huntsmen #huntresses #rwby theory #headcanon #altesian knights #grimm #rwby #rwby4 #rwby5

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apollo-cackling · 11 months

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wrt my tags on the last post

#now I have a long history of overestimating how easy a piece is #(my brother's learning piano recently and I have learnt that my idea of a beginner pianist is like. at least 3 levels above that :skull)

I'm like the average familiarity xkcd but with piano beginners. it's only until I started cello and joined an orchestra that I realised how deranged my idea of a beginner pianist is. I'm the freak that thinks a 100% beginner never touched a piano before pianist can play idk for example kiss the rain mostly perfectly after practicing for one or two months. my intuition still tells me that. there's still a part of me that's convinced the only reason my brother is so far from my idea of a beginner pianist is bc he's like 9 and has tiny hands. this has caused me so much self esteem issues before I realised this. I still wildly overestimate the hypothetical skill level of a level 6, 8, pianist

#my rambles #piano #I think this might be bc I did levels 6 8 10 on back to back to back years #I mean aside from the 'I've been doing this for so long that I don't even realise some things I can do without thinking #are actually skills I've honed over 10+ years of playing'#(my being able to just Know where notes are without having to look probably helps me a lot more than I know it does for example)#but like yk i did levels 6 8 10 so quick (and burned out maaaassively) that the 3 just kinda blur in my head

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fly-pow-bye · 7 years

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Powerpuff Girls 2016 - “Mini Golf Madness“

Written by: Haley Mancini

Written & Storyboarded by: Alicia Chan, Grace Kraft

Directed by: Nick Jennings, Bob Boyle

Mulligans are not necessary here.

The episode starts with an establishing shot of Wooly’s Ragtime Mini Golf, the Wooly’s clearly being a replaced word. Totally Not Old Man McGucket, or Wooly for short, tells everyone to have a “golf-tastic time”. Then he gets hit by the Wooly’s sign, revealing that it used to be owned by Rico. Is there a point to this? There might be, but it's never outright stated.

The golf course is filled with animatronics of 1930′s cartoon characters...and Top Cat! A very rare appearance of a Hanna-Barbera character not named Scooby Doo on modern Cartoon Network. I wish it was less rare. Unforunately, these robots are breaking down too easy, which could be our first hint that’s something is not quite right about this place. Bubbles doesn’t seem to mind, though. It’s still cute to her.

Buttercup plays a round of mini-golf, with her sisters helping out. Bubbles is the wind checker, checking the wind using her pigtails. Blossom is keeping score, and because she’s a nerd, she also suddenly talks about the history of the golf course. It was based on the characters from an old 1930′s cartoon called Owly Boop, an obvious parody of Betty Boop. Before Blossom can talk more exposition than necessary, Buttercup shoos her away while she readies her shot.

It lands in in animatronic’s trumpet, which then breaks down, dropping the ball right into the hole. Blossom tells Buttercup that her score is a -7. Buttercup scoffs that her score is a negative number because she’s doing so great, but Blossom reminds her that negative scores in golf are a good thing.

Buttercup: Well, it’s time for Buttercup to do terrible!

Too easy. Also, running gag.

After a montage of Buttercup “doing terrible“, Buttercup faces a giant animatronic Owly Boop at the “Final Hole“. Buttercup has gained enough of a crowd to get the janitor to act as a commentator, because she’s the first person at this mini-golf place to ace every hole so far. Judging by, this is her first try, too.

She swings super hard at the golf ball, making it fly. It hits the animatronic’s ear, an airplane, and a generic sign that says “Generic Sign“. The animators couldn’t get rid of the placeholders in time. It lands right between Owly Boops’ legs, rolling right into the hole.

Bubbles, now acting like the reporter as the janitor is busy with this episode’s poop joke, congratulates Buttercup on her first time perfect game, and asks her what she’s going to do next. Unfortunately, since this is Cartoon Network and not something that owns world famous theme parks, they can’t complete the obvious reference. Instead, Buttercup says she’s going to take her game-winning lucky ball back home.

Wooly isn’t too fond of that plan, as this golf place was built before the concept of having a final hole that is essentially a glorified ball return place. He menacingly tells the girls that all balls must be returned...OR ELSE! Buttercup asks, but he’d rather keep it a secret. He then does a villain laugh, because he's the suspicious guy!

Buttercup goes up to the ball return place, assuring Blossom that she’s a good girl and that she’ll return it like the man says. Of course, Buttercup has a diffterent plan. She just happens to have a gumball in the same shape as one of the mini-golf balls...which she then starts chewing so she can think harder. I’ll admit, that’s an okay joke.

Buttercup’s actual plan is to steal one of Bubbles’ reboot pigtail beads and use one of the blue balls as the replacement. Hey, they finally made Bubbles’ new design useful! We get an ominous shot of the Owly Boop robot opening its eyes while the Powerpuff Girls talk about how creepy Wooly and his course is, making it a bit too obvious what’s going to happen next.

Buttercup cherishes her lucky golf ball, as she and her sisters go to bed. While sleeping, Blossom hears a big explosion. Apparently, even Blossom has gotten used to the lack of crimefighting in this series, as she thinks the explosion was Bubbles farting. Bubbles says it wasn’t her, and then she actually farts. Because this is a piece of children’s media in 2017. I’m surprised there isn’t a pee joke to complete the trifecta.

Blossom tells Buttercup to get out of bed, and she wakes up the other two to show them what she’s seeing:

A shadowy giant singing robot that looks oddly familiar destroying the city. The Powerpuff Girls get out of bed and tear off their pajamas, revealing their usual clothes. Yes, they do apparently shed off their bare feet to reveal their shoes. Don’t even ask how.

It turns out, it’s the giant robot Owly Boop that guarded the last hole on the golf course, tearing apart the city in search for something missing. In her words, which she sings in the style of Betty Boop:

Owly Boop: Hooty-hoot, who’s got it? Hooty-hoot, who’s got it?

She dances around, sings in a jazzy style, and there’s shots like the one above, which fits with the Betty Boop theme of the character. Mostly, she just lifts buildings, leading to jokes like comforting a man who felt his room was too stuffy with that pesky ceiling, and the classic “reveal a woman bathing, causing her to scream“ joke. This is a throwback episode, so it fits.

Highlighting one scene in particular, the robot lifts City Hall like one of those step-on garbage cans to find what she’s looking for, grabbing the Mayor. This leads to The Mayor commenting that she looks just like Ms. Bellum except for her face. I’m glad that Ms. Bellum isn’t completely forgotten, though comparing her to a Betty Boop parody tells me they still don't see her for her personality.

He then cries, because he misses her, with Bubbles having to comfort him. Later on, there’s a cutaway where Bubbles reads him a bedtime story in the same way Ms. Bellum did in one of the flashbacks in Bye Bye Bellum. A more obvious callback to a previous episode? Who would have thought that would happen?

Blossom immediately knows what’s going on, and tells Buttercup that this is happening because she stole the golf ball. Buttercup tells Blossom that she earned it by being "terrible", and says she would do the same thing in her position. To Blossom, she's the epitome of morality, and she would never steal a thing. Guess she forgot about those golf clubs.

Buttercup, not willing to give up her lucky golf ball, decides to do what she actually does worst: actually beating up monsters in this reboot. To be fair, even in the original, if it would break the story, the Powerpuff Girls could, and should, not defeat the Monster of the Week. Catastrophe? The slime monster keeps reforming. Uh Oh Dynamo? Better have that monster be suddenly invincible so they can get in the robot!

The main issue, and I've written this before, is the lack of contrast. There's very little Girls Punch, Monster Down to establish the Powerpuff Girl's powers in the reboot, unlike the original where episodes often open with Townsville under attack and the Powerpuff Girls saving the day. It's a good thing Cartoon Network's website has original episodes as well, or we might forget that the Powerpuff Girls are supposed to be ultra-super-powerful.

Of course, robot kick, girl down. Womp womp, hooty-hoot-hoo. The way she does it isn’t too bad, though: she telescopes her legs to the sky, and then while Buttercup is confused, she kicks him in a way resembling Betty Boop’s dance moves. I like the way the robot is animated in this episode; I wish I made more GIFs.

Wooly shows up, not really concerned that one of his animatronics is destroying the town, but is concerned that whippersnapper is a thief. He tells Buttercup robot will not stop until what she has stolen returns. Huh, he sure seems to know a lot for being an innocent golf guy. He does a lot of evil laughs, too.

Despite everything, Buttercup still feels that she doesn’t need to give up that golf ball that she earned. Besides, it’s not like the city is totally destroyed! Cue the ironic panorama shot!

Wah, wah, wah, waaah.

Buttercup, having no choice, goes on top of a ceiling. She asks Bubbles to check the wind speed, and it’s apparently so strong that it blows Bubbles away. I guess the Powerpuff Girls are now weaker than wind. Buttercup repeats the same golf ball bounces everywhere gag from before, and the ball lands right into her mouth, shutting her down.

They all get ready for the once-an-episode apology scene, until the robot comes back to life with the startling twist! I won't entirely spoil it here, but you can add this episode to the massive pile of episodes that make Blossom look foolish.

Foolish enough for a wah-wah trumpet!

I will give this episode credit: despite consantly making him seem that way, they never really out Wooly as the villain that's the cause of all of this. This episode actually leaves an interpretation to the viewer, and that’s actually nice in a reboot not familiar with the word “subtlety“.

Does the title fit?

Madness is caused by a stolen mini-golf ball.

How does it stack up?

I didn't come to this episode expecting much, but I left rather surprised. The Owly Boop robot is charming, some of the jokes actually work, and it's great to see an episode involving superheroics. In Buttercup's way of thinking, this episode is "terrible". In other words, it's good. Wrap your head around that one.

Next week, the Bro Sharks. Oh, (Man)boy.

← A Star Is Blossom ☆ Summer Bummer →

#fpb ppg 2016 #fpb reviews #powerpuff girls #ppg 2016 #cartoon network

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nancygduarteus · 5 years

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Everything Is a Subscription Now

I’m a person with a toilet-paper subscription. I bought it through my Amazon Prime subscription: Every few months, an embarrassing box of toilet paper arrives at my apartment, at which point I’m charged around $30, which includes the 5 percent savings the retailer awarded me to secure my toilet-paper business in perpetuity.

The same thing happens when the pet-supply company sends me two bags of dog food every six weeks, or when Adobe lets me use Photoshop for another month. Instead of CDs and DVDs, Netflix and Apple Music grant me access to movies and music on a rolling basis. A cosmetics retailer sends me beauty-product samples every month. I never use them, but still pay $10 each time.

For most of American consumer history, subscriptions were the province of magazines, cable, and other media: You paid an annual fee, and news and entertainment organizations gave you their new work as it became available. But as digital payment technology has improved and people look for ways to navigate stress, stagnant wages, and online shopping’s near-infinite purchase choices, the value proposition of subscriptions have changed. So too have the kinds of products people can subscribe to.

Today, things that can routinely show up to your doorstep include: misshapen vegetables, personalized vitamin cocktails, dog toys, a vast wardrobe of clothing and accessories, and even a sofa. In a consumer market of disposable fast fashion and cheap assemble-at-home furniture, the idea of wasting less while getting to use nicer, higher-quality things for a monthly fee is a compelling sell. But what’s harder to predict is what might be lost when the effort to buy less stuff turns into renting huge swathes of your daily life.

A subscription, at its base, is simply a schedule of recurring fees that gives consumers continual access to a good or service. A car lease is a subscription, but so is your gym membership and the way you use Microsoft Office. Subscription creep dates to at least 2007, when Amazon launched Subscribe & Save, a service that lets shoppers pre-authorize periodic charges for thousands of consumable goods like sandwich bags or face wash (or toilet paper), usually at a slight discount over individual purchases. Then came Birchbox in 2010, which provides women with miniature portions of beauty products on a monthly basis for $15. At its peak, the company was valued at more than $500 million.

Both Amazon’s and Birchbox’s models have been widely copied, and their success underscores subscriptions’ appeal to businesses and consumers alike, according to Uptal Dholakia, a marketing professor at Rice University. “The pain of payment and the friction of how a person is going to pay is totally gone,” he says. Consumers receive things they need or want without having to make any decisions, and that creates more stable and predictable revenue streams for the businesses they patronize.

The pitch for Feather, a two-year-old startup that lets consumers borrow suites of furniture for their apartments, sounds a little dystopian. “We don’t own our apartments. We don’t own our cars. We don't even own movies anymore. So why own your furniture?” the company asks on its website. It isn’t that Feather is wrong; Millennials are less likely to own homes and cars than their parents were at the same age, and streaming services dominate entertainment so thoroughly that Best Buy has largely phased out CDs in its stores. But in the face of all that instability, don’t you at least want your sofa to be yours? Feather says the new normal is “defined by freedom and flexibility.” But generational precarity is hardly an exciting lifestyle.

Jay Reno, Feather’s founder and CEO, is realistic about the frequently less-exciting circumstances of sofa rental; he’s moved almost a dozen times himself. “Most people in our consumer demographic are looking for disposable furniture,” he explains. “Your life is changing constantly, you’re moving apartments, you have a different layout in each apartment and different furniture needs.” The company currently operates in New York and San Francisco, two hyper-expensive cities where young, often affluent people tend to bounce between apartments and roommate configurations. The furniture they need might change pretty quickly, along with the rest of their lives. Although Feather offers terms as short as three months, Reno says that most of its customers rent for a full year—the length of an apartment lease.

Rent-to-own businesses have a notoriously predatory history with America’s working poor, but But Reno claims Feather is trying to apply a less vampiric approach to what can be a practical service for apartment-dwellers in unpredictable stages of their lives. Traditional rent-to-own models have been accused of profiting off of their customers’ desperation, not their desire for flexibility. According to Reno, Feather is targeting educated, middle-class consumers who can probably qualify for in-store financing at West Elm—the same type of people who might have been proudly buying a new dinette set for their young family at Havertys in the 1980s. But back then, those shoppers could expect their dining area to be the same size for the foreseeable future.

If furniture subscriptions might help consumers delay a purchase decision that feels too permanent to handle, Rent The Runway might help shoppers stop making purchases that have gotten too easy. The dizzying variety offered by online shopping and the pressure to look great on social media create an intense incentive for women to continually expand their wardrobes, which can strain both budgets and the physical limits of one’s closet. Rent The Runway opened in 2009 to rent special-occasion dresses, but in 2015, it launched a $159-per-month service that gives subscribers access to a rotating array of everyday clothing. Users can swap out for new pieces when they’re done or keep them for an extra fee.

The same year Rent The Runway’s subscription service launched, the average American consumer purchased 65 pieces of clothing, even though most people use relatively little of their wardrobe. Surveys estimate that only 20 percent of people’s clothing sees the light of day with any regularity. Most individual pieces are only worn a handful of times before being discarded, usually into landfills. At the same time, super-cheap clothing is more omnipresent than ever, which can make it seem like a smart, budget-conscious choice for refreshing a seasonal wardrobe or flexing on Instagram.

In theory, a wardrobe subscription gives people access to the variety that modern life demands, in addition to the kind of high-end clothing that it would be impossible for most people to wear every day. “We used to be a business that was more about the cherry on top of the sundae because it was something super special,” says Anushka Salinas, Rent The Runway’s chief revenue officer. “Now people are using us as a utility.”

But along with the advantages of variety or quality comes a downside. Whether or not a subscription to breakfast smoothies or Reformation dresses or mattresses makes sense depends on individual consumer circumstances, which Dholakia says people are bad at evaluating on their own. “You tend to overestimate how much you will consume,” he explains. When signing up for meal kit delivery, you might tell yourself you’ll cook three times a week, when actually once or twice is more realistic. In the case of durable goods, Dholakia says, the tradeoff is in the long game: “The consumer pays less, but they don’t get to own the asset and benefit from it.”

Spending $150 per month to lease three different sets of bedroom furniture in three different apartments might give you flexibility, but at the end of those three years, you’ve spent $5,400 and still don’t own any bedroom furniture.

Consumers also seem to be bad at estimating how much they spend on subscriptions. One survey found that when asked to guess their monthly spend on subscription services, Americans’ first guess was around one third of their actual output. Because people aren’t continuously asked to opt in, it can be easy for those who don’t have to pay stringent attention to their monthly budgets to lose track of what’s being siphoned off. Dholakia says that businesses profit from this disregard. “You have to go and revisit all your subscriptions as a consumer every month, or at least every quarter at a minimum,” he explains. He also urges consumers to look carefully at what companies require to cancel service. If a particular program’s terms make it onerous to opt out, that’s a red flag that subscribing may be a bad deal in general.

Dholakia is careful to point out that in companies where subscriptions work, it’s generally because they’re providing a service that people actually want or need, not because the revenue model itself is a golden ticket. Birchbox, one of the early darlings of the subscription economy, has had some well-publicized growth and revenue struggles in recent years as people tired of paying to receive a different mini mascara every month. Blue Apron, which has had its subscription meal kits copied by numerous competitors, had more than a million subscribers in early 2017; by 2018, that number had dropped to fewer than 800,000.

Both Feather and Rent The Runway Unlimited think they have identified places in which the things people are supposed to own don’t really line up with the ways they have to live their lives: A lot of people rent their homes for a lot longer now, and the internet speeds up trend cycles and keeps permanent records of every outfit you’ve ever been photographed in. Owning things is great, but the constant pressure to shop and acquire—and especially to do so beyond one’s means as a signal of success—is wasteful of both material resources and money. For some, buying flexibility and novelty without commitment or unnecessary waste might be worth more than an IKEA sofa or a bunch of Zara clothes.

Rental furniture and wardrobing services remain a bandage on a bullet wound; they can’t address the reasons that so many people who might have lived comfortable, middle-class lives a few decades ago now don’t know where they’ll be living next year. Still, if you’re one of the many people who find themselves squeezed by circumstance, at least there’s probably a company out there willing to meet you where you are.

“Every business owner in every industry has thought about or is thinking about if subscription makes sense for their products and services,” says Dholakia. “We’re going to see subscription in pretty much everything.”

from Health News And Updates https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2019/05/how-amazon-helped-turn-daily-life-subscription/588526/?utm_source=feed

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ionecoffman · 5 years

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Everything Is a Subscription Now

Article source here:The Atlantic

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supervillainproject · 6 years

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By the end of this particular module, you should be capable to define Search Engine Optimisation and explain the basics associated with SEO like a business (as nicely as how SEO shapes the particular Internet itself. ) You'll furthermore be able to explain the particular differences between three main SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION job types, and be ready to choose a career that will best suits your current targets. A highly effective lookup marketing campaign, will encompass each search engine optimisation (SEO) plus pay per click advertising (PPC). One of our favorite on-line toolkits is SEMrush, which contains a variety of tools with regard to SEO, content marketing, and search engine marketing techniques. An SEO Content Writer is definitely someone that writes content for the particular purpose of having it display up on search engines plus gain website visitors. Internet marketing perfect for the platform of SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION or Search engine optimization. With voice search arrives two areas of interest in order to SEO folks wishing to link with consumers: intent and circumstance. SocialSEO is proud to help future experts in the planet of business and marketing along with the annual SocialSEO Digital Advertising and SEO Scholarship. Finally SEO Wise links enables you to established nofollow attribute and open hyperlinks in new window. Voice research is going to be one particular of the main parts of concentrate for SEO in 2019 plus beyond. By 2019 mobile advertising will represent 72% of all US digital advertisement spending. They will should realize that SEO Internet advertising mandates a business website, given that it is a necessary on the internet marketing tool. Eventually you can publish these pages on various SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION sites or simply submit the particular web page so that the particular search engine spiders can examine on your created content. The history of SEO will go back to the 90s whenever the search engines emerged intended for the first time. High quality articles is critical in any lengthy term SEO strategy. Successful SEO includes on-page strategies, which use intent-based key phrases; and off-page strategies, which make inbound links from other sites. So, along with content advertising, SEO now must be deeply aimed with your company's PR attempts. Information will be a good introduction to and summary of lookup engine optimization (SEO), a massively important tactic for driving visitors to your internet site. There is usually a wide range of misinformation about exactly what an SEO campaign (company) may accomplish when it comes in order to search engines engine rankings. But using the particular SEO analysis tools, you may increase the chances of your own website's high ranking that will certainly enable you to get more traffic and ultimately, more business and income. Those who have the many to get are small businesses that will before a new harder period breaking into the snug SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION world. Therefore, cheer up and supplies up to arrange for SEO- the particular organic top-ranking practice. SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION (search engine optimization) places your own website within the natural outcomes section of search engines. SEO is specifically important for businesses because it guarantees they're answering their audience's greatest questions on search engines, whilst driving traffic to their items and services. Intended for marketers who were brought upward in the ‘traditional SEO marketplace, ' 2018 is really the time to adapt or perish. White hat SEO includes most the SEO practices we've discussed about so far which possess a long term approach in order to site optimization and focus upon the user experience and exactly what people need. Cost effectiveness - SEO is usually one of the most most affordable marketing strategies because it focuses on users who are actively searching for your products and providers online. The reality is that you can obtain top Search engine ranking opportunities spending a little bit associated with money and working on the particular project yourself or paying the professional Seo services thousands associated with dollars to get your Site on the first page. Although black hat SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION methods may boost a cyberspace search engine page rank within the short term, these strategies could also get the web site banned from the search motors altogether. According in order to research and advisory firm Forrester, programmatic marketing is expected in order to account for 50% of almost all advertising by 2019. On this web page you'll find a list associated with 21 SEO insanely tactical strategies that you can use in order to boost your engine rankings. 26% of respondents state email is the digital marketing and advertising channel with all the greatest positive influence on revenue; SEO is 2nd (17%), followed by paid research (15%), social media (5%), plus online display advertising (5%). Along with an increased focus on consumer experience, Google has challenged the particular SEO community to pay even more attention to the entire encounter of a website and just how the content interacts with customers, rather than just the fundamental elements that most optimize towards. While that will certainly not get solved in 2018, we require integrate the SEO group alongside other marketing, both compensated and owned initiatives. For example, several businesses miss the mark along with SEO and images, and nevertheless rank well. Thankfully, you can find your very own broken links on site using the particular myriad of Tools available. Ask any SEO services company and they will tell a person that whenever a page is definitely searched, the major search motors spiders search it through hyperlinks. Effective SEO aims to improve lookup engine position, user visits, come back visits, and to improve transformation rates, which reflect the figures of visitors who take preferred actions on the site. Wise SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION activities increase your rankings in the particular search engine results page (SERP). This is the best goal for ecommerce SEO, plus the traffic those links can bring through will convert in a very high rate. 55 The difference from SEO is many simply depicted as the distinction between paid and unpaid concern ranking searching results. I get into much more detail in SEO Titles on pages: 15-Point Checklist for B2B and B2C Brands, which explains the right way to work in relevant keywords that will accurately reflect the page content material. Are good nevertheless SEO potential may be decrease in comparison to single links. The training behind our SEO expertise had been developed from years and many years of learning from mistakes marketing and advertising with our other businesses. The in-depth guide contains the most recent SEO best practices so a person can improve how your content articles appears in search results, plus get more traffic, leads, plus sales. Keyword analysis definitely belongs to the SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION basics. I'll start by stating that social mass media and SEO are heavily linked to each other. Black head wear SEO attempts to improve ranks in ways that are disapproved of with the search engines, or even involve deception. This particular is more tedious and tasking than inorganic SEO because this particular is how all the key phrases get a full blast associated with attention. SEO: It stands for Lookup Engine Optimization. Within this post, we will break this down in the complete first timers guide to SEO: what SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION is, how it works, exactly what factors affect search and exactly what sorts of changes you may make today to improve your own search optimization. The no follow hyperlink has been contradicted many periods over where SEO is included and it depends on the particular web owner concerning if these people allow them on the web site or not. SEO's basic importance comes from the particular fact that most users show strong search dominance — that will will be, search is the main method people go places on the particular Internet. Reading blogs related to SEO might also be very useful within locating out concerning the important companies on the market which usually are offering comprehensive and genuine Search engine optimization services in the direction of the corporate sector. The initial SEO is dependent mostly on number of key phrases targeted and the size associated with your web site, while the particular ongoing link campaign depends even more on the competitiveness of the particular keywords chosen. Whether most likely an SEO newbie or the seasoned practitioner, I encourage a person to fully read this in order to understand how you can obtain your content on top associated with search results. Huge Brand campaigns are far, significantly not the same as small business SEO promotions that have no links, to start with, to give you yet an example. These SEO companies have got a strategy requiring clients in order to pay for the major lookup engines (including Google and Yahoo) for monthly website maintenance. Professionals are reporting that 2019 may be the year of tone of voice search, and that the tone search algorithm may change in addition to supersede text search relatively. A TOP DOG blog is simply one component of social media distribution, an essential SEO strategy according to SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION Consult You should be disseminating links to fresh content upon your site across appropriate sociable networking platforms. Let's confirm our knowing of SEO basics with the one question quiz about the particular factors in search rankings: web pages, links and keyphrases. When it comes in order to Google SEO, the rel=canonical hyperlink element has become VERY IMPORTANT over the many years and NEVER MORE SO. To place the particular focus on the website website visitor, it has been suggested that will acronym SEO should are a symbol of lookup experience optimization. It's important to remember in order to share content from your internet site or blog socially to provide it an SEO boost as well. Some Webmasters will pay out thousands of dollars to several so-called professional SEO expert in order to get their Websites on best in the rankings. It is usually preferable to ask questions upon their SEO procedures and find out whether they have knowledge associated with keyword density or if they will have information about the most recent keyword research strategies and equipment. This combined expertise makes all of us uniquely qualified to present a good ethics-based, search engine-friendly SEO guide to teach you guidelines that will reflect the latest developments looking. They protect important subjects for example search motor success factors and how SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION relates to social media advertising. In order in order to make web pages appear in high positions in the search outcomes, SEO tries to shape the website according to Google's formula. The major problem of SEO is the truth that there are billions associated with pages in the internet lookup engine indexes and your placement in the SERPS is reliant on a constantly changing protocol which is not published.

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sonderfulrose · 6 years

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10 Moments To Remember From SEO 2019

Find out about algorithm changes, Google improvements and changing customer behaviour in order to plan your SEO marketing regarding 2019. The main stage of SEO is to end up being friendly both to users plus search engines. Based in Colorado springs municipal airport terminal, CO, SocialSEO has been the particular preeminent digital marketing firm within Colorado since 1996. Although the SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION experts provide great SEO solutions for their clients, there are usually a few who ruin the particular internet design industry through their own greed in marketing efforts plus manipulate search engine rank. SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION may target different kinds associated with search, including image search, regional search, video search, academic research, news search and industry-specific straight search engines. The benefits of successful digital marketing plans are fairly much proven over the board yet when it comes to firms within the photography industry this SEO aspects of the marketing technique really do make all associated with the difference to helping a new photographer stand out from this crowd. HISTORY LESSON: Old SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION advice suggested you connect along with websites and trade links along with each other True, a huge reliable site linking to you may boost up your ranking, yet, it's not going to assist your relevancy score when the particular linked content isn't related in order to the website sharing it. 10. Quality back back links need to be built upward to your site for efficient SEO. SEO is about attracting individuals to your site to start with by making sure this shows up searching queries. Screaming Frog SEO Index tool does it to suit your needs inside a few seconds, even with regard to larger websites. SEOs also used to believe that buying links was the valid method of link developing; however, Google will now punish you for buying links within an attempt to manipulate page rank. Ultimately, achievement in SEO in 2018 plus forward will depend on generating amazing content and making this as easy as possible with regard to search engines like google in order to understand exactly what that articles is all about. Answer: When you focus upon SEO for voice search a person need to create your articles around long tail keywords since people tend to use a lot more words in voice search. SEO is the practice associated with increasing the search engine ranks of your webpages so that will they appear higher in research results, bringing more traffic in order to your website. In the particular previous example, Bob's home web page might have the title, "Bob's Soccer Store - Soccer Sneakers and Equipment. " The name is the most important component of SEO, since it informs the search engine exactly exactly what the page is all regarding. 47. When creating SEO articles, keep the social layer within your mind. When you have time to get good search engine optimisation education, after that combine this knowledge with greatest practices and you are upon your way to become a good SEO expert. 46. Use SEO practices in order to optimize your social media content. 4. Mobile SEO plus Local Business: - As we all mentioned before, users tend in order to search for local business upon the smartphones. Investing in high quality tactics which do take more time but endure and are usually the ones which generate useful traffic is the best method to spend your time upon SEO. Some SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION specialists and bloggers say that will short URLs ranks better within Google. This technique is definitely sometimes known as SEO content” or SEO copywriting”. But you ought to not ignore the most substantial part of the website developing process, i. e. SEO (Search Engine Optimisation). Whilst businesses can choose to perform their own SEO, hiring the SEO agency that has encountered search engine optimizers will simply no doubt, help businesses reap RETURN ON INVESTMENT in the long run. Within fact if you look carefully you will find that content material marketing and SEO go hands in hand. On the various Understand SEO 2019 Before You Regret other hand, Black Hat SEO consists of efforts like redirecting internet research engine "spiders" to different webpages than human visitors see, mass-posting "spam" comments (on blogs, discussion boards, articles), or putting lists associated with keywords in late each web page in very small fonts. Because we've seen, one of the particular major advantages of SEO will get more traffic because of much better search engine ranking. If you are severe about improving search traffic plus are unfamiliar with SEO, we all recommend reading this guide front-to-back. Several of these SEO strategies consider to deceive users into going to sites about subjects they no longer have any desire for, which places them at odds with the particular purpose of search engines. Keep in mind that will links, content, and user knowledge are all major SEO rating factors. Could holistic approach will ultimately eliminate a lot of the particular issues created by some SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION practitioners over the years, We suspect that search engines' technicians will initially overestimate the accuracy of their AI, resulting within Penguin-level collateral damage. SEO (Search Motor Optimization) is the process associated with making a website more noticeable in search results, also called improving search rankings. Siteimprove SEO furthermore provides in-tool tips on where to start and the way to get the most out associated with your keyword research and supervising. We've already been operating in the SEO plus content marketing industry since last year and know how search motors work. Right now there are a great number associated with resources out there surrounding aggressive Blog9T link analysis (and a great deal that have been authored simply by me! ) but whenever We speak with people that are usually working on SEO projects, is actually always one of those "yeah, I understand I should do this more" tasks. Amy Kilvington, Marketing Executive at Custom Drapes, believes that SEOs are heading to have to optimize social media marketing more as Google indexes this and prioritizes it over their own sites' pages. Social media is usually the easiest and most efficient way to push the SEO-based content. However, right now there are some easy adjustments that will you can make to the particular search engine optimization (SEO) component of it, which will ideally provide you with fantastic results. Businesses with multiple websites and SEO-agencies can set up report web templates. Its search engine marketing group provides expertise in Pay-per-click marketing services, organic SEO and interpersonal media optimisation. The particular ads that you often observe on various web pages demonstrated and those that also show up on the rightmost side associated with search engine results are inorganic SEO examples. While I nevertheless see this trend in have fun with with many enterprises still within the midst of their electronic transformation, the convergence in the particular MarTech space is creating a lot of synergies and opportunities and this particular should be seen as the welcome development for brands plus agencies who are looking with regard to an edge in regards in order to their SEO driven content advertising or outreach strategies. Along with the only complete certainty that SEO's, Website owners may have a lot of adjustments to make to sites under their care in the particular mobile and voice search scenery. The basics of GOOD SEO hasn't changed for years - even though effectiveness of particular elements provides certainly narrowed or changed within type of usefulness - a person should still be focusing upon building a simple site making use of VERY simple SEO best practices - don't perspiration the small stuff, while all-the-time paying attention to the essential stuff - add plenty of unique PAGE TITLES and lots associated with new ORIGINAL CONTENT. Keyword research is definitely THE first step of any kind of SEO campaign.

It looks typically used in SEO as the general definition for the method that the mathematical detection associated with synonyms, and how certain terms are related to others inside a piece of text, is used to the indexing of internet pages by search engines like search engines. So if you would end up being to write 5% for every keyword then your word SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION and Article will be within the content 75 times every. Like any good SEO company before concentrating on the info will do a proper hyperlink edit and fix all the particular error pages. Taking the hard work to comprehend even the essentials of SEO can help your own site gain higher click-through prices, engagement, and of course, search positions. Kent Lewis, President and Founder of the particular Portland based performance firm, Anvil, predicts that both Amazon lookup and voice search will become trends in 2019. MarketingVox warns towards getting tied to a "link farm" whose bad SEO routines could bring you down. Your web webpages must earn that high standing with high-quality content and best-practice SEO. Content is the 2nd major SEO ranking factor, plus is just as important because links. Previously known since WordPress SEO by Yoast, Yoast SEO is one of the particular most quintessential WordPress plugins whenever it comes to search motor optimization. While SEOs need in order to understand it is not just about rankings, UX specialists require to admit that user knowledge kicks in even before making use of the website. You will find on-site and off site SEO techniques that you may use to higher your research engine ranking. Looking deeper: In present-day SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION, you can't simply include since a lot of keywords as possible to achieve the people who are searching for you. SEO stands for Search Motor Optimization and refers to strategies you can use to assist ensure that your site rates high in the results associated with search engines like Google. It blends ratings and search volumes in the manner that makes it even more relevant, insightful and easier in order to understand than any other SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION performance tracking approach. About: Advanced Search Summit will be designed for advanced SEO experts, digital marketers, and analysts from enterprise and mid-market sized businesses who want advanced tactics plus techniques. SEO stands for seo. ” It is the process associated with getting traffic in the free, ” organic, ” editorial” or natural” search results on search motors like google. If you're believing about ramping up SEM initiatives to complement organic SEO, end up being sure to take a appearance at Google Adwords ' Research Ads page. The large portion of SEO is generating valuable, high-quality content (e. gary the gadget guy., blog articles and web web page copy) that your customers will certainly find helpful. SEO alone cannot perform much for your business yet when combined with content advertising, social internet marketing, email advertising, mobile marketing and PPC marketing and advertising, it can help businesses achieve the pinnacle of success on the internet.

Performing SEO upon your own websites is the great method to practice plus hone your SEO ability. We optimize your web site both of internal and exterior factors thats Google's engine believe in and reliable for top position search result, Gurantee your SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION ranking No succeed can refundable. Looking deeper: An SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION cost often means one associated with two things: the investment within your organic search strategy, or exactly how much you pay for compensated search engine marketing (SEM) providers like Google AdWords. All of us are dealing with new methods designed to target old design SEO tactics and that concentrate around the truism that SITE ‘REPUTATION' plus Plenty of WEB PAGES plus SEO equals Plenty associated with Keywords equals LOTS of Search engines traffic. BrightonSEO is a one-day search advertising conference and series of education courses held, unsurprisingly, in Brighton. From narrowing straight down target markets to changing the particular way content is written, AI and voice search will possess a continuous effect on SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION moving forward. One aspect of SEO is definitely link building, which we will certainly discuss slightly below, which frequently leads to thin content. Applications for typically the 2018-2019 cycle of the SEO Improve programme are now closed plus will re-open again in Early spring 2019. SEO could be complex because search engines are constantly reevaluating and changing how they will prioritize search engine results. Moreover, it will help SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION by gaining backlinks, likes, feedback or shares. To possess a better SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION, helps your website can obtain on the top among well-known search engines like Bing plus Google. On the some other side, you can ensure a good effective content marketing campaign just when you apply the SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION techniques properly. SEO : Search engine optimization: the procedure of making your web site better intended for search engines. The purpose of SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION writing is to make your own company more visual, more attractive in website search engines. SEO is definitely the practice of increasing this quantity and quality of targeted traffic to your website through organic and natural search engine results. 31. SEO data can notify a smart social media technique. Solid keyword & marketplace research assist SEO strategy plus allow us to supply realistic projections and forecasts of opportunity inside your market. Nevertheless, when this comes to developing and performing an audio SEO strategy regarding your business, just creating content material for the keywords your clients are looking for is each arduous and, well, wrong. In this situation, in, the article ranks correct after the official Google suggestions (and it makes sense that will Google should be number one on their own branded query) but Smashing magazine is proven as a position 0” little of text on the issue Google pop up guidelines” within. Search Engine Land, a top quality SEO blog this is the pillar of the community is definitely ranking after Smashing (which occurs to be associated with a style blog than an SEO one). Something which usually was troubling about 2017, plus as we head into 2018, could be the new wave of agencies merely bolting on SEO since a service without any genuine appreciation of structuring site architectures and content for both human beings and search engine understanding. A huge part of SEO is within creating content which is focused towards the keywords that lookup engines users are searching intended for. Building links could be the big part of your work as an SEO because this plays such a big component in the algorithms used simply by search engines to look intended for the order of their outcomes. Search engines like google through the King Google to supplementary ones like Bing and Askjeeve rank the websites on the particular basis of its SEO. It's since creating content and ranking this in Google is what SEOs do! SEO solutions look at their links, through where their links are arriving, and what keywords they have got made a decision to optimize for their web sites. Hobo UK SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION - A Beginner's Guide (2018) is really a free pdf file ebook you can DOWNLOAD TOTALLY FREE from here (2mb) that will contains my notes about generating increased organic traffic to the site within Google's guidelines. My conjecture is that the biggest SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION trend in 2019 is heading to be Amazon search. TYPES OF SEO Right now there are two major types associated with seo, white hat search motor optimization (the ‘good' kind), plus black hat (the 'not therefore good' kind). Google's always tweaking its lookup algorithms, so there's no warranty that SEO practices that proved helpful in the past will maintain working in the future.

Right now there are a few fundamentals that will can help boost the technique, but SEO, or seo, will be hardly ever considered. While employing the services of a great SEO agency can get a person good marketing copy for the particular website and an effective make use of of the related keywords, getting a brilliantly designed website can help a lot when this comes to attracting people plus even the search engines in order to your website. You are able to get into important SEO-related data like the particular page title, description, and key phrases for every page or a person can have the system immediately populate this data depending upon a document name or additional fields. SEO has become broadly adopted as an online advertising strategy due to its effectiveness. Creating high-quality content along with SEO in your mind through the beginning boosts search presence. In contrast, dark hat SEO is about attempting to take shortcuts and sport search engines. You may also use Google Analytics in order to find SEO keywords for content material optimization. Keyword research is the particular process SEOs value to discover what search queries consumers get into into a search engine regarding a given topic. Within today's rapidly shifting world, SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION techniques can change on the dime—and the worst part will be that you might not also know it. Hacks that can have won you a front-page result as recently as 2016 are not only obsolete right now, but they may even harm your website's rankings.

On this web page you'll find a list associated with 21 SEO insanely tactical strategies that you can use in order to boost your engine rankings. 26% of respondents state email is the digital marketing and advertising channel with all the greatest positive effect on revenue; SEO is 2nd (17%), followed by paid research (15%), social media (5%), plus online display advertising (5%). Along with an increased focus on consumer experience, Google has challenged the particular SEO community to pay even more attention to the entire knowledge of a website and just how the content interacts with customers, rather than just the simple elements that most optimize towards. While that may not get solved in 2018, we want integrate the SEO group alongside other marketing, both compensated and owned initiatives. For example, a few businesses miss the mark along with SEO and images, and nevertheless rank well. Thankfully, you can find your personal broken links on site using the particular myriad of Tools available. Ask any SEO services company and they will tell a person that whenever a page is usually searched, the major search motors spiders search it through hyperlinks. Effective SEO aims to boost research engine position, user visits, come back visits, and to improve transformation rates, which reflect the quantities of visitors who take preferred actions on the site. Wise SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION activities transform your rankings in the particular search engine results page (SERP). This is the greatest goal for ecommerce SEO, plus the traffic those links may bring through will convert in a very high rate. 55 The difference from SEO is many simply depicted as the distinction between paid and unpaid concern ranking searching results. I get into much more detail in SEO Titles on pages: 15-Point Checklist for B2B and B2C Brands, which explains how one can work in relevant keywords that will accurately reflect the page content material. Are good nevertheless SEO potential may be reduced in comparison to single links. The education and learning behind our SEO expertise had been developed from years and many years of learning from mistakes advertising with our other businesses. Our own in-depth guide contains the most recent SEO best practices so a person can improve how your content articles appears in search results, plus get more traffic, leads, plus sales. Keyword study definitely belongs to the SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION basics. I'll start by stating that social mass media and SEO are heavily linked to each other. Black head wear SEO attempts to improve ratings in ways that are disapproved of by search engines, or even involve deception. This particular is more tedious and tasking than inorganic SEO because this particular is how all the key phrases get a full blast associated with attention. SEO: It stands for Research Engine Optimization. Within this post, we'll break this down in the complete first timers guide to SEO: what SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION is, how it works, exactly what factors affect search and exactly what sorts of changes you may make today to improve your own search optimization. The no follow hyperlink has been contradicted many instances over where SEO is included and it depends on the particular web owner concerning if these people allow them on the web site or not. Content written simply by customers gives sites legitimacy plus it earns SEO juice each from manual and automatic ranking systems. Inside 2018, this trend is in the rise and if anyone invest in making your site mobile friendly you will take pleasure in higher ranks in 2019 as well. When making a internet site for Google in 2018, a person need to understand that Search engines has a long list associated with things it will mark websites down for, and that's generally old-school SEO tactics which are usually now classed as ‘webspam‘. Besides getting social plus having a good time, your own social media profiles can favorably affect your SEO efforts. Since so many people rely on voice search being the pattern in 2019, I, Nicole Bermack (this article's author), am coining the word VSO - voice research optimization. Wise brands and agencies are changing new SEO, social and content material marketing strategies to join their particular customer conversations. Search engine search engine optimization (SEO) is the art plus science of getting pages in order to rank higher in search motors such as Google. A person can audit your page's SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION health, compare SEO metrics with regard to a number of pages, plus analyze both external and inner links on any given internet page. Content companies that will offer SEO content creation providers are experts in creating content material that are not only enhanced for search engine rankings yet also add value for your own business in terms of brand name awareness, customer engagement and enhanced sales.

Let's confirm our knowing of SEO basics with the one question quiz about the particular factors in search rankings: web pages, links and keyphrases. When it comes in order to Google SEO, the rel=canonical hyperlink element has become VERY IMPORTANT over the many years and NEVER MORE SO. To place the particular focus on the website customer, it has been suggested that will acronym SEO should indicate lookup experience optimization. It's important to remember in order to share content from your web site or blog socially to provide it an SEO boost as well. Some Webmasters will pay out thousands of dollars to a few so-called professional SEO expert in order to get their Websites on best in the rankings. It is usually preferable to ask questions upon their SEO procedures and find out whether they have knowledge associated with keyword density or if they will have information about the most recent keyword research strategies and equipment. This combined expertise makes all of us uniquely qualified to present a good ethics-based, search engine-friendly SEO guide to teach you guidelines that will reflect the latest developments looking. They include important subjects like search motor success factors and how SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION relates to social media marketing and advertising. In order in order to make web pages appear in high positions in the search outcomes, SEO tries to shape the website according to Google's criteria. The major problem of SEO is the truth that there are billions associated with pages in the internet lookup engine indexes and your placement in the SERPS is reliant on a constantly changing criteria which is not published.

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andrewdburton · 6 years

Text

Avoiding the fate of the dodo: How to prepare for an uncertain future

Our financial decisions are based on our expectations for the future.

We save for retirement because we expect we’ll live a long time in old age, a period where we expect to be relatively unproductive. We invest in stocks because we expect the market to provide outsized returns when compared to other asset classes. We set aside emergency savings because we expect that bad things will happen — if not tomorrow, then next week (or next year).

We base our expectations on past experience — both our own experience and the experiences of others.

We expect to live a long time in old age because statistically most of our contemporaries live a long time in old age. We expect the stock market to provide excellent returns because for the past 100 years, that’s what the stock market has done.We expect bad things to happen because bad things always happen.

Generally speaking, there’s nothing wrong with this method of planning. It works.

When we base our expectations for the future based on what’s happened in the past, we tend to get good results. We accumulate money for when we’re no longer able (or willing) to work. Our investments grow. We have a cash cushion for when the car breaks down or little Jimmy breaks his leg.

Beyond All Expectations

But what happens when the old patterns break? What happens when past data becomes meaningless? That’s the subject of an intersting article from Nick Maggiulli at Of Dollars and Data.

He tells the story of how the dodo went extinct. Evolving in an ecosystem without predators, these birds had no fear of humans. They had no expectation that another creature might hunt them down and eat them and end the species.

Maggiulli writes:

From the perspective of the dodo, the arrival of humans (or any other large predator) was outside the realm of its evolutionary grasp. Anything the dodo had approached previously had not tried to eat it. However, the arrival of humans broke the old pattern. It was beyond all expectations.

This idea is directly relevant to how investors use historical financial data to make decisions about the future. We assume that history is a great guide for what is to come, which is only sometimes true. We rely heavily on previous patterns…until they break. This is the classic black swan problem explained by Nassim Taleb, and highlights the difficulty with relying on financial history to make predictions.

“Just like the dodo,” Maggiuilli says, “investors are on their own island of financial history with no clue what will wash ashore from the seas of tomorrow.”

An Uncertain Future

I love Maggiulli’s short article on expectations because it does a great job illustrating a point I try to make now and again.

Life would be easy if we could see the future. We’d know how to invest, how much to save for retirement (because we’d know how long we’d live), and whether or not to marry the gal we just met on Tinder.

Because we can’t know the future, life is difficult. Decision-making is difficult. We make our best guess, but often we guess wrong. It’s tough to plan for your future when you don’t know what that future holds.

For one, the world around you is constantly changing. You may be sure of your current situation, but what will your life be like five years from now? Ten? Odds are you can’t come close to making an accurate guess. (In some cases, it’s tough to predict just one year out!)

For another, you change. As you grow and develop, your priorities and values grow and develop too. What made you happy in the past may not make you happy in the future.

Stumbling on Happiness

In 2006, Harvard psychology professor Daniel Gilbert published Stumbling on Happiness, a book about that explores this topic at length. In this presentation from the 2004 TED conference, Gilbert compresses his ideas into bite-sized pieces:

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Gilbert says that because we can plan for the future, our preference is to structure our lives in such a way that we’re happy both now and later. The problem is: We don’t know what will make us happy in the future! In fact, Present You usually does a poor job of predicting what Future You will like.

Gilbert asks:

Which future would you prefer? One in which you win the lottery? Or one in which you become paraplegic? Which would make you happier? […] A year after losing their legs, and a year after winning the lotto, lottery winners and paraplegics are equally happy with their lives.

The problem is impact bias, our tendency to overestimate the “hedonic impact” of future events. Put another way, the things that we think will make us happy usually don’t make us as happy as we think they will. Winning the lottery isn’t a panacea. Having an affair with your hot new co-worker won’t be as thrilling as you think. And losing a leg isn’t the end of the world.

Present You vs. Future You

How tough is it to predict your future path?

Here’s a simple test: Think about where you were five years ago — where you lived, who you spent time with, what you did. How does that compare with where you live today, who you spend time with, and what you do with your time? Chances are your life today is different than it used to be — possibly much different than you might have predicted.

Here are two examples from my own life:

When I was a junior in college, I expected to graduate, settle in a big city, get a job as a counselor or therapist, get married, have kids, and live happily ever after. I had no inkling that five years later I’d own a house in my hometown, work at the family business (something I swore I’d never do!) in a job I hated, and have over $20,000 in consumer debt. No inkling. (Only the “get married” part of my expectations proved to be correct.)

Five years ago, I was newly divorced and had just begun dating. I lived in an apartment close to downtown Portland. I didn’t want to own a house. I was obsessed with travel. I went to the gym several times each week and was in the best shape of my life. I had “retired” from writing about money — and thought that I would never return to the subject. Today, things are different. Kim and I have been together for 5-1/2 years. We own a home in the country, and we have three cats and a dog. Since returning from our 15-month RV trip, I haven’t traveled much. My fitness is suffering because I’m not making the gym a priority. And, of course, I’m back to writing about money at Get Rich Slowly!

Sometimes your future life fails to live up to your expectations, and sometimes it exceeds them. But in nearly every instance, you cannot predict where life will take you. No wonder Present You often does such a poor job of setting things up for Future You.

Avoiding the Fate of the Dodo

When people get frustrated and panicked at unplanned events, it’s often because they’ve built their life around certain expectations. They expected their marriage to last “forever”. They expected their job to be secure. They expected home values to continue soaring. And so on.

So, what can you do? How can you be certain that you and your lifestyle won’t go the way of the dodo? Truthfully, you can’t. There is no certainty in life.

What you can do, however, is develop the skills needed to cope with this uncertainty.

Know your purpose. I know I’ve flogged this dead horse repeatedly over the past couple of years, but that’s because I believe it’s important. When you’re clear on your purpose in life, when you have a personal mission statement, then it’s easier to cope with unexpected events. When something bad happens, you’re able to respond more effectively because you know what it is you want out of life.

Be adaptable. If you’re too rigid in your thinking — in your expectations, habits, and attitudes — then it’s very difficult to compensate when something goes wrong. Develop resilience — financial and otherwise. Your ability and willingness to adapt is a barometer that measures both your ability to thrive and your capacity for happiness.

Worry more about what you do than what you get. Over the years, I’ve noticed that too many people fixate on desired results. They’re overly obsessed with an outcome — whether that’s getting out of debt, achieving financial independence, or getting a certain job — instead of focusing on the process. Here’s the thing: You cannot control outcomes. You can only control your effort. If you focus outcome instead of effort, you’re setting yourself up for a lifetime of disappointment.

Expect the best — but prepare for the worst. Although this entire article has been about the problem with expectations, I’m not going to tell you that you shouldn’t have them. But I want you to be deliberately conscious of these expectations, to know what they are and why you have them. Then, most important of all, after you’ve identified your expectations, take some time to figure out what you’ll do if these expectations are not met. What are your contingency plans? What will you do if the stock market crashes? If you lose your job? If your partner dies tomorrow?

Despite the problems inherent with basing your expectations for the future on past experience, there’s really nothing better to go on. When we make plans for the future, our best bet is to base those plans on what has happened in the past. No other method provides better results.

But it’s important that we recognize that the past is not a roadmap. It can’t tell you what lies ahead. All it can do is to help you see what other roads have been like, how other people have navigated through life.

Maybe that’s the key to avoiding the fate of the dodo: Instead of having a set of expectations for the future, have a set of plans. And be willing to revise those plans when things change. Because trust me: Things are going to change.

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Avoiding the fate of the dodo: How to prepare for an uncertain future

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Our financial decisions are based on our expectations for the future.

We base our expectations on past experience — both our own experience and the experiences of others.

Generally speaking, there’s nothing wrong with this method of planning. It works.

Beyond All Expectations

But what happens when the old patterns break? What happens when past data becomes meaningless? That’s the subject of an intersting article from Nick Maggiulli at Of Dollars and Data.

Maggiulli writes:

“Just like the dodo,” Maggiuilli says, “investors are on their own island of financial history with no clue what will wash ashore from the seas of tomorrow.”

An Uncertain Future

I love Maggiulli’s short article on expectations because it does a great job illustrating a point I try to make now and again.

For another, you change. As you grow and develop, your priorities and values grow and develop too. What made you happy in the past may not make you happy in the future.

Stumbling on Happiness

Gilbert asks:

Present You vs. Future You

How tough is it to predict your future path?

Here are two examples from my own life:

Avoiding the Fate of the Dodo

So, what can you do? How can you be certain that you and your lifestyle won’t go the way of the dodo? Truthfully, you can’t. There is no certainty in life.

What you can do, however, is develop the skills needed to cope with this uncertainty.

The post Avoiding the fate of the dodo: How to prepare for an uncertain future appeared first on Get Rich Slowly.

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