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bentosandbox · 1 year

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More sporadic Lone Trail ramblings/TLs

prev one here this time more about the saria/kirsten/mumu trio and fanservice and the CGs in general spoiler warning etc etc

(From 4-END) Silence asks Saria if she's incapable of standing against Rhine Lab because deep inside she's the same as them and when she finally answers she's like

......I'm sorry, Silence. I did think about it thoroughly, but I can't give you a definitive answer. If Kirsten's experiment does touch a law that should not have been, then I will stop her, just like all the mistakes Rhine Lab has committed over the years-- they ought to be corrected, for I have always believed, the more power one holds, the less they should act recklessly. But if I were to go back in time, to the moment where Kirsten and I first met, when everything had yet to transpire...I would not have stopped her then, nor the birth of Rhine Lab. Yes, even if I knew that Rhine Lab would create this many Catastrophes, even if I could have predicted that Kirsten, Parvis and Ferdinand would eventually grow out of control-- I would still have stood together with them as I did.

(From 5-END) Mumu:

Did you know? Back then, Saria and I even picked out Kirsten's clothes. Yup, Saria cares about fashion more than she does! (Control truly only has 1[or 2 lol] things in her brain)

Yara (HR and the one responsible for Silence2's outfit) is basically kind of a parent figure to Kirsten 🥹 (so I guess they're a parallel to Silence and Iffy...)

uhm what else. the 3 of them used to go stargazing together and in a flashback mumu picks up a (shiny) rock

Mumu: Kirsten, see that rock on the ground? What does it look like? Kirsten: ...... Mumu: It's like Saria, right? It's so hard(like, firm) and yet it shines so 'perfectly'! Kirsten: ...Like the stars.

idk how global is going to do this part but in CN (and in JP?) Rhine Lab is literally 'Rhine Life' and mumu asks if Kirsten really wants to name it that instead of something like 'Rhine Physics' since she 'just wants to fly to the sky' and she says no, RL is good, because

I want to know what exactly are the stars we see. I want to know what lies beyond the barrier wrapping around us. I want to know...to see just what kind of land do we live in, if I can really take a look while standing among the stars.......Most of the answers I want are about 'us'.

oh one last one quote out of context for you fic writers Saria (to mumu): You're the same as always. The moment you get a little nervous, you forget just how frail your body is.

Love the idea of mumu being doc's bestie/oomfie but her and hol's lines/whatever else have irreparably damaged the AK ecosystem fr tbqhwyf and i thought skadol was bad lol. Now we'll have triple the NTR jokes great amazing wonderful (i launch myself into space)

'But its rationalized they're all the last of their kind!!!!' Justification doesn't fucking matter the damage has been done to their (perceived) characters i want my insane morally fucked up scientists not some generic lonely gf that steals the mc from other girls or some harem bullshit forgot what the term was and i dont want to know

Imagine getting a generic ass cg of 'pov mumu is so sad and helpless and needs your help to rescue her!!' (this happens after and not getting one for the extremely kino saria and mumu fight where you find out more about just how inter-connected the 3 of them were (are…?) and saria is first overwhelmed by all the water and she remarks how shes has never seen water(from mm) this turbulent before but within the waves she cant find the elf and all she finds is are sad eyes and tears…I can only feel pity for Mumu fans who don't give a damn about shipping themselves for her. speaking of CGs...

AK is clearly inspired and references a lot of IRL media and it shows with their graphic design work (UI, motion graphics etc) here's a link to a Lone Trail analysis but....for some reason the story CGs are quite bereft of the same energy (dare i say passion even lol) imo

ofc CGs are to immerse you in the story etc etc and they're really pretty but

how immersive is a fucking practically copypasted photobashed kirsten (the CG is very beautiful otherwise I love aZling4's rendering style sm.. probably my second favourite CG after the depressing 2nd lobby one you get post-ST4 where......shes also in the same pose.........motherfuckers)

Like man could you not have posed him any other way than hand in pocket with average cosplayer photoshoot lighting

this CG of hol almost getting rekt by saria is pretty weak imo that grip is non-existent nothing much to say (atm) about hol but that i love fanart where she looks/acts like a freak instead of (90% of fanart)

saria literally just fell from almost space back to earth and she looks almost unscathed lol mumu's water can't possibly be that rejuvenating

Maybe it's meant to be kind of incomprehensible but uh when the story went tonight the truth is finally glimpsed by humans for the first time or something I was like ....what is even happening in this picture lol

idk like doing partitioned CGs like how limbus does it would be so good tbh sometimes all they just show is a face and its like ? all that space? I'm guessing the artists have to do the concept/compositions themselves and some just have fresher ideas than others or time constraints etc basically i would just love to see CGs that are references to kino movie shots or something, they love movies so much right??? what about some good cinematography????

Dont want to sound like im flexing my useless veterans card or whatever but like. im a day 0 fan, i played their OBT, i started my acc on day 1, i remember being so excited about this game being so different from the other mobages, i didn't like how GFL was becoming way way more fanservicey then so AK was like a literal noah's ark with a whole bunch of artists ive revered from my touhou days, and now seeing it (inevitably!) slide towards GFL and the average mobage has me like 'well im glad limbus exists they let their women wear pants and be irredeemably insane(looking at you talulah 🥲)'

regardless of all that complaining this might beat italiano perros for favourite event because i was one of those kids with a space phase and something about the trio's dynamic.... (brain chugging) something about water unable to move unshakeable earth (but it can soften though...) that in turn can never reach the sky you know you know just like how a tiger can never be on the same level as a dragon 'real' animal vs mythical

#arknights #bentotexto #Lone Trail

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apprenticeofcups · 4 years

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okay this might be a completely out of nowhere meta question but this is the kind of worldbuilding i think about, dont judge me, but do you think the world of the arcana have magical plumbing, or is asra shitting in a chamber pot

No judgement, don’t worry 😂 worldbuilding ain’t always pretty, but it is always valid

Personally, I’m gonna go with magical plumbing. I know aqueducts being the Hip New Thing doesn’t instill a lot of confidence in the plumbing technologies of this world, but given that someone references a “shower” (I think it’s in Nadia’s route, in passing), I’m gonna give them the benefit of the doubt and say we’re past chamber pots.

When you have a world where magic is a thing that exists, and it’s not just a far-off, grandiose thing, either - we see people other than main players using magic for pretty household things - it will always affect the technological evolution. Specifically, a world where magic is readily available (and not hidden or stigmatized or banned for any reason) will not follow the same trends or timeline of technological development as our world - not because the people aren’t as smart or innovative, but because the necessity is different. We’ll see rapid evolution in the areas magic can be used as a quick and easy solution, and mechanical invention where magic would be impractical, unwieldy, or too advanced of a solution.

For instance, it’s danced around in a couple routes that healing is hard - Asra and a few other characters heal superficial wounds once or twice, but magic is never used for a catastrophic injury like a broken limb, or to treat sickness. The fact that Julian’s ability to heal any wound had to be given to him by a literal demigod implies that your run-of-the-mill magic cannot, reasonably, be used to heal and cure everything. Hence why the in-game world still has doctors, surgery, and active advancements in medicine. It’s not that magic can’t serve that purpose - but it can’t be relied upon as a replacement for medicine, because the kind of magic and the level of training required is so advanced, it’s more convenient and effective to have widespread mechanical healing.

And let’s be real, even from a real-life perspective: sewage is a big deal. Historically, the cities with better plans (or sometimes better luck - I forget the name, but there was a Roman city built on a hill that was spared a plague because all the waste ran down out of the streets) on getting rid of sewage have lasted longer, because they’re not getting nerfed by preventable crap-born diseases as often. And modern plumbing took a good long time to perfect, but honestly, sewage disposal seems like a pretty easy thing to solve with magic. Even if you make the argument that Vesuvia’s not the most advanced in terms of water management (see: aqueduct hype above), it would be feasible to invent a magic toilet that burns waste away and somehow vents the fumes, or compresses and supercleans it like they do in space. Hell, maybe everyone in Vesuvia pisses into a portal, and there’s a giant heap of unspeakable horror in a no-man’s-land miles and miles away.

Basically, there are lots of ways to make a magical toilet, and personally, I prefer that to shattering my nice romantic illusion with the idea of chamber pots 😂☕

#the arcana meta #the arcana game meta #the arcana worldbuilding #the arcana game worldbuilding #worldbuilding #my meta #mod cups #Anonymous

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gender-trash · 4 years

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wow! i am still not over my Housing Insecurity Trauma it turns out. steps for recreating this great recipe for yourself:

1. be a dumbass trans teen trying to cope with the anxiety of coming out to your parents by Gathering Data. this turns out to be a bad idea because all signs point to “small but dangerously present chance that your boomer republican parents will straight up kick you out on the street”. argue with your mom a lot and then, when she inevitably says something like “you know who pays for your college tuition?? you know whose house you live in??” go cry on the computer as you try to figure out how to come up with $65k a year by yourself as a Child with no job and no financial aid

2. go to mit, get assigned to the Girl Dorm for Girls, wrangle a transfer to ec after one semester and get (stupidly) very attached to it as both a physical space and a community

3. spend the summer interning at google. whoops, senior haus/pilot 2021 goes down!! spend the internship hiding in the bathroom crying and thinking “oh fuck oh shit we’re next we’re next we’re next” on repeat. you have to hide in the bathroom to do this because you’re in an open plan office with six people to a megacubicle and the other intern sits next to you and loves to peek over shoulders (WHY WERE YOU LIKE THIS)

4. go back to school for a year, have your grt evicted from your hall for basically bullshit admin reasons. meet with dsl as they tell you “uh, our hands are tied at this point, cant do anything about it even though this is entirely an us-caused problem, what can we do to support you in this difficult time?”, try to keep your hands from shaking with rage, uneasily try to forget about it so that you have a hope of passing your classes

5. next summer, have a big argument with your mom who decides she literally doesn’t want to be in the same house as you and deals with this by moving out into a hotel. she still spends the day working from home though. one time there was a power outage at work so i had to leave early and fart around in the sunnyvale library because i literally Was Not Permitted To Go Home otherwise my mom might Be Reminded Of My Existence. spend the whole summer maintaining a go-bag, a list of important ids/documents, and an itemized list of your coworkers by order of whose couch you’d ask to sleep on first. at the end of the summer your mom decides That Never Happened, And We Won’t Discuss It

6. go back to school for a year and try to forget about it

7. spend the summer living with your mom, who has still decided the previous summer Never Happened, And We Won’t Discuss It. try to forget about it because everything is FINE, RIGHT

8. go back to school in some relief that this is your last year and so you’ll be graduated before any new bullshit can be introduced

9. HA HA HA, YOU FOOL, IT FINALLY HAPPENED, LAST SEMESTER SENIOR YEAR EVERYONE GETS EVICTED!! TRAUMA CATASTROPHIZING FINALLY PROVEN RIGHT AND NOW YOUR BRAIN WILL NEVER FUCKING SHUT UP AGAIN

i think the only answer at this point is to move to the country and buy a house... fuck you mom this time it’s MY house MY rules and all of my kitchen appliances will be different colors out of SPITE. we have dangerous behaviors and we dont even give a shit what some middle-aged white lady university administrator who wants to feel relevant thinks about them because she is not RELEVANT to our lives no matter how much poorly analyzed data she has

(actually i’ve done the next best thing which is Rent An Apartment and i cannot WAIT until i am healthy enough to move there)

#the trashcan speaks #this is east campus i make whatever noises i want #finest hell on earth #WOW I CANT WAIT TO BE AN ADULT WITH A JOB SO I CAN TELL MY MOM TO FUCK OFF TO HER FACE

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tumblunni · 6 years

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okay HOLY SHIT

I just remembered that show Gargoyles that I loved as a kid, and I decided to rewatch it, and its SOMEHOW EVEN BETTER THAN I THOUGHT IT WAS?? Like holy fuck?? It has one of the best introductions to any show ever! Did I just never see the first episode as a kid, or did all the implications fly over my head when I watched it??

Okay so.. like.. I knew the PREMISE but I didnt expect it all happened in the least expected way! The friggin theme tune tells us that blablabla ancient magical guardian creatures fell under some sort of curse and now they’re revived in modern times, such and such, there you go a one sentence plot. BUT HOW IT HAPPENED HOW it happened oh GOD And like the show starts with a whole hour long flashback to the gargoyles back in olden times?? like thats a really bold move! usually in kids shows theyre like ‘you MUST establish the status quo/episode formula right away’. here we literally only saw two minutes of modern times america. TWO MINUTES! some person we dont know finds some mysterious monster. now lets throw that all away and spend a whole glorious hour establishing how much of an upstanding man that damn monster is, and how the universe treats him like shit. like weirdly enough it raises hype for the modern day episode formula even as it shows none of it?? it makes the audience think ‘WAIT WTF THEYRE NOT EVIL, OH NO WE ALREADY KNOW THE MODERN POLICE IS GONNA ATTACK THEM’ :< And then also we get ANOTHER HOUR AND A HALF of establishing the modern day status quo too?? theyre labelled on dvds and stuff as the first five episodes, but really this was just one big 2 and half hour movie premiere! i wish i could have seen it in its original form back when it first aired, i just remember that it was really hard to catch reruns of the multi part stuff cos toon disney had a lot of airing issues

anyway WHY IS THIS THE MOST AMAZING THING EVER?

okay

OKAY OKAY

Here’s our premise! We start off in some ambiguously set medieval kingdom where everyone dresses like a mashup of vikings and englishmen yet have scottish accents ok seriously thats kinda distracting And we’re introduced to this small castle kingdom that’s protected by mysterious guardian creatures of amazing character design. Like seriously i wish they didnt focus so much on this ‘all the main gargoyles have to look more human’ thing, the comic relief teenagers trio was my favourite and also THE COOL GRANDPA EYEPATCH GARGOYLE ok ok im getting offtopic So in this universe gargoyles are a sentient species of winged noble warrior doods, who just happen to have a problem of turning to stone in sunlight. And they protect these humans but the humans are all assholes who’re like WAH BUT THEY LOOK LIKE CHRISTIAN DEMONS THEY MUST BE EVIL even as theyre like.. mid-being-saved. Absolute dumbasses. And seriously YOU BUILT YOUR CITY ON THE GARGOYLES’S LAND! You should count yourself lucky their leader is Niceman Mc Patience who agreed to a peace treaty instead of kicking your ass. Seriously Goliath you kinda comprimised too much! It really fuckin sucks!! The gargoyles are like.. employed by the humans for no form of pay?? They get literally nothing out of it! Except less room to live in their own home, and constant degredation.

Okay so THE HUMAN CHARACTERS AND THEIR CONSTANT DEGREDATION

We’re introduced to the princess and royal vizier dude when the kindly knight captain is like ‘hey you should say thank you to the gargoyles, not me’, and she’s like HOW DARE YOU LET THE BEASTS INSIDE THE HOUSE! Like seriouslt the gargoyles arent even allowed to be seen by humans?? Theyre supposed to protect them every damn day but also should never speak and never have any form of rights as sentient beings. WHAT THE FUCK IS YOUR DAMAGE, MEDIEVAL DOODS?? So yeah here’s our brief summary of the everyone here: * Fucking asshole princess who acts like you let your dog shit on the floor if you give a friggin sentient being and king of another civilization the basic courtesy of being allowed to STAND INSIDE THE HOUSE * Cliche evil vizier lookin dood who doesnt really have much personality shown yet except being a sycophant to her anti gargoyle shit, and like.. from his character design you totally expect he’s gonna be evil. *shrug* * Niceman mc guardman who treats Goliath like a friend and is being all activist for gargoyle rights amoung the court. But also he’s really low ranking apparantly, and doesnt have any power to affect change. It seems that he’s been treated like shit by these royals for a long time... * One innocent nice kiddo who wants to hug the gargoyles for saving him, but his jerkass mum is all OMG HOW DARE YOU TOUCH HIM HEY EVERYONE YOU SAW THEY TOTALLY ATTACKED US RIGHT Like seriously he just fuckin tries to start a conversation with the younger gargoyles, and is all ‘youre my hero!’ and they have a nice talk that establishes a load of worldbuilding like how gargoyle culture doesnt have any form of names and Goliath only has one cos the humans gave it to him. Screw you, worldbuilding interruption predjudice mom!

Okay so now we have our premise, and we see some mysterious guy in a hood sneaking out of the castle to ally with some raiders who wanna overthrow the country and steal all its riches. Also a minor scene of the teen and kid gargoyle group being sent to their room for 'causing trouble’ even though seriously the humans started it >_> So like.. we all know where this is going, right? Its a pretty big omen when you give us a contrived circumstance for the children to be the only ones who can be safe from this impending catastrophe... And the voice was very gruff and deep so its probably not the princess doing this shit, plus duh she already has all the power so why would she need to stage a coup? Really, the question now is just what vizier man’s motives are for wanting to betray her!

... EXCEPT

This is where the story gets fuckin great, and also where My Soul Is Pained

hey guess who was really the traitor? its.... nice guard man! fffffuck its sooo creepy when the princess is running for help and she’s like HEY THANK GOD YOURE HERE and then he has this big slasher smile and reveals his plan T_T And like.. he’s still.. not really evil?? Nobody here is evil, except the personalityless plot device raider guys who just exist to set up this circumstance. The princess is an ungrateful predjudiced asshole, but she’s beloved by her human subjects and i mean., she never actually does anything evil, she’s just rude and nasty. And the vizier was a complete red herring and actually all his mysterious shit was just him hiding a crush on the princess, so he breaks down when he thinks she’s dead :( And then guard guy also wasnt lying about caring about the gargoyles. he tried to get them to leave so that only the humans would die, but then like.. his ambition overtook that one shred of loyalty he had to his friends. He thought he could get through all this without having to kill them, but when the raider guy insists upon it he ends up agreeing rather than lose his chance at stealing the throne. And then its really slimy how he’s all ‘BUT I DIDNT INTEND THIS ORIGINALLY, ITS ALL RAIDER GUY’S FAULT’ after goliath shows up and cries over the corpses of his family, like seriously what the fuck dude dont try and weasel out of consequences for your actions. But still it feels like he was once a genuinely good guy who just gave in to his selfishness and abandoned his morals?? And i mean its super justified for him to be angry at how he was treated by the princess, and to want to affect change in this society. WE WERE ALL ROOTING FOR YOU!! Seriously its so fuckin surprisingly deep to have some guy who’s a fakeout hero in the first damn episode. And some guy who’s a villain just because he stooped to any means necessary to carry out his once-heroic ambitions. Instead of changing society for the sake of the people, he’s sacrificing all the people just to gain the throne, and forgetting why he ever wanted it! SERIOUSLY HOW DID YOU MANAGE TO BE EVEN WORSE THAN ASSHOLE PRINCESS

so yeah then the plot just goes in SO MANY UNEXPECTED DIRECTIONS to get to the same expected conclusion! Instead of just being cursed by the bad guys, the gargoyles were betrayed by the one closest to them, while those bad guys all died innefectually offscreen. And the curse wasnt even an evil act! It happens because of a REALLY COMPLEX GREY MORALITY SITUATION, where the princess and vizier were gonna be sold off for cash, but then because the gargoyles tried to save them the guard guy decided to just execute them instead. So after their triumphant rescue of all the villagers, they find the vizier man sobbing over his dead love, and then he tells them its THEIR FAULT IT HAPPENED. And he doesnt want to live without her, so he makes a really stupid reckless decision and decides to attack the last few living gargoyles. And like RIGHT AFTER he casts the spell on them, he finds out the princess is still alive and its all oh Fuck What The Fuck Have I Done So vizier man tries to undo the curse, but his book of spells got damaged in the fight and (OF COURSE) coincidentally the page about curse lifting is gone. Cue fuckin Everyone Crying. SO FEW EVIL PEOPLE IN THIS STORY SO MANY EVIL ACTS DONE BY THOSE WHO THOUGHT THEY WERE THE HERO like even the vizier and princess realize they were wrong about their anti gargoyle bigotry after they have to see the consequences of it here but its just WAY TOO LATE FOR THAT

and then yo the EVEN MORE UNEXPECTED AND SAD BIT cos our protagonist gargoyle was the only one who didnt get cursed thats unexpected and he basically COMMITS SUICIDE TO BE WITH HIS FAMILY THATS KINDA MORE UNEXPECTED Well its more like a g-rated suicide metaphor?? Everyone thinks the curse will never be broken, so he curses himself too cos he cant live without them. And its really depressing cos even though we know they all eventually get uncursed, so many others just straight up died and also theyll never see their human friends again and also the castle is all destroyed so the fate of the kingdom is really ambiguous too?? we just know that the now-redeemed princess and vizier are gonna do anything they can to protect their citizens and atone for what happened. and they take the last few gargoyle eggs that werent destroyed, and promise to raise them with all of the love and respect they nevr gave poor goliath... and seriously they never say whose children those eggs were but he’s like the only person left who could have given them a proper gargoyle childhood. So like its morally grey that goliath is choosing death together with the people he knows, rather than living and trying to ressurect his dying civilization. i absolutely wouldnt blame him for it though, its not like suicide is an active choice, he wasnt exactly in his right mind at the time! But its just REALLY NICE AND COMPLEX! And raises a lot of questions about what will happen to these new gargoyles who’re raised by humans, how different would they be if goliath and co met them someday? i really hope thats actually a plot thats gonna happen, i cant rememebr ANYTHING about this show lol...

so yeah theres all the FUCKIN COMPLEX DARK MORAL AMBIGUITY IN ANCIENT ENGLANDSCOTLANDGERMANYKINDA and it is AMAZING and it absolutely baffles me how they ahve such great plots when other parts of the writing are kinda awful standard disney cliches?? like seriously they wasted so much screentime on Comic Relief: A Fat Guy Exists. Seriously he just.. exists. They show these really slow and overanimated scenes of him just.. eating things. not even exaggerated or comedic. he ate one pie, lets all make fun of him for twenty minutes but man, no show in the 90s was perfect, lol! this is still pretty damn great! AND VERY EMOTIONAL

oh oh oh and i didnt mention THE OTHER CRYING BIT cos the guard guy gets a cliche disney villain death, the whole accidentally falling off a cliff due to his own actions, so the protagonist isnt morally responsible for killing a man but then what makes it a really unique scene is that THATS NOT THE MORAL STANCE THE SHOW TAKES goliath WANTED to kill that damn man or, at the very least, give him some sort of punishment for what he’d done goliath has a fucking huge despair moment over the fact this villain man died and he wasnt the one who did it “you took everything from me, even my chance at revenge” cue ugly sobbing as this buff ass demon man screams at the heavens and cradles the stone dust that was once his damn wife what the fuck show why are you doing this to me

ITS REALLY GOOD

#blunni thoughts

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distress · 4 years

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i have had a lot of crazy vivid and . detailed dreams lately and i know no one cares but i wanna record them bc i forget them so quickly but . i already forgot a really detailed one from a few nights ago. excuse my typing im on a new keyboard and dont feel like correcting all my typos

two nights ago i dreamt i was in oregon but going to visit florida bc in my dream i was going because i was in online grad school, and i figured i should go to florida to attend th e grad ceremony, which was may 5th in my dream, my actual college graduation date. so i went for two weeks . apparently i had a home there and it was pink with blue window frames and i lived with three roommates, three scrawny girls who dont actually exist and own 3-4 dogs. for some reason i took my cat to florida. martin came with me and got me adjusted, and we rode in the car with my ex michael and at some point they got out to do something and i saw them talking to each other. they came back in the car, martin in the front seat and my ex in the back. i asked “what were yall talking about” and michael said “he said if i try to sleep with you he’ll kill me” . i was like oh,, thats not like him but i get it i guess.

my house was close to the grad ceremony, almost a block away, it was similar to the layout of my elementary school. at some point i texted my friend charlotte that hey, im in florida. i realise its suddent but id like if we could hang at least once. and she said why are you here? and i said just because, no trauma like last time lmao can you hang? im here til may 5 and she said well im busy 3-6th and i was like ok but what about the days preceding and she wouldn’t give me a clear answer

eventually i was at my grad ceremony and then an after party and charlotte was there, but so were a lot of people. we were sitting in a circle. looking back, it was a lot like the first “party” i went to before i was even friends with her and her friends etc . in a dorm we all sat in a circle. but we walked home together and on the way home i told her hey, you wouldnt tell me if you were free to hang any other day. eventually i told her she was being a huge bitch and bad friend. she gto really defensive. i went back to my house. i realized i brought my cat and hadnt let him out for forever, he probably shit all over. so i rushed home and michael was around and my roommates let their dogs out when i let my cat out and it was a disaster.

at some dumb point my ex told me his real name was austin which was weird ( and not real lol) but i adjusted to calling him that really quickly. eventually we were in a bath tub together and i was really aware that i was cheating on martin. i dream a lot of cheating on him recently, honestly. its. expected i guess but weird. because until a month or so ago i constantly dreamt he was cheating on me.

we sat in the bath and some guy came in and was like, hey. and i was like uh? im naked? and he said can i stay and i said yes. and he got in the tub too.

i left

back to my pink and blue house and suddenly was overwhelmed with this feeling that i , althought i was “visiting” had to move, and suddenly i had so many things at th e house. there was this. ferris wheel of items. dishes. and i would turn it. it was in the wall and if i turned it too fast all the dishes would break. and i started freaking out over how much i had to move. so much to move.

---

my next dream started with me and my parents trying to go to silver falls. we drove and drove but we got to a certain point and it was flooded as all hell

-- typing that reminded me of my dream before, that was the ssecond time in three days i dreamt of a flood

i dreamt . the past three nights ive dreamt of cheating on my boyfriend

i dreamt i was at the mall with my hs best friend , and her mom who hated me for no fucking reason. in salem. with our dogs. the mall was closed. i fought them on what we would do a lot to get my dog home, daisy, who died in 2014, a big black german shepherd. something happened with my brother driving my dog home. somehow i ended up sleeping in my car across the street from the salem downtown mall, and i slept through a huge storm that caused catastrophic flooding. i woke up and got out of the car and walked around for a tad, and a flash flood rushed through and i hid behind a wall clinging onto it while giant floods rushed by. i ended up in a tree until my brother came by with some people. a guy, who doesnt exist other than in my dream, who i like, and some other asshole who... we got seperated, and the asshole kept insukting me and telling me i was the worst . while we crawled through some ceiling trying to getto a safer place, getting separated from my brother and the guy i loved . eventually, the guy was so mean to me too. he tried to hit on me and manipulate me later aftter being mean and i said why would i treat you well when youve been so bad to me.

back to the other flood with my parents. we were trying to go hike. but a flood. i got out and there was a baby moose nearby. i freaked out-- the parent is close and she will fuck us up. i screamed at my parents to get in the car and i could see the mother moose running toward us while i tried to slam all the doors shut.

then it shifted to another dream. i dont remember the context but i know it was uncharted -esque being shot at. i was with a girl named atria who i had a crush on in college and i kissed her. and i kissed someone else. i remember kissing so many people and knowing i was cheating on my bf every time,and . thats basically it

and its weird, because typing these dreams out ive recalled a good handful of other dreams in their weirdly vague details. i cant even explain them because i basically just remember extremely detailed images-- driving up an extremely steeep hill to get to a spring with a weird dam, driving through tons of fields in the hills seeing huge houses, a giant fun factory esque playground, driving down pine street but somehow feeling i was in salem still, ....,, screams. dreams fuck me up so much. i love having vivid dreams but its so strange to remember scenarios from dreams from years ago that are so wildly fantastical and have nothing to do with that imagery.

#dream #ref

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thrashermaxey · 5 years

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Ramblings: Updates on Byfuglien, Jones, and Zuccarello; Kyrou and Fabbri; Muzzin Traded; Blue Line Production – January 29

Winnipeg coach Paul Maurice told reporters on Sunday that Dustin Byfuglien hasn’t resumed skating so to not expect him back this week. The Jets play their final road game of their broken-up trip on Tuesday night before returning home for three contests. We’ll know more this weekend.

Taylor Hall was not skating in the game-day skate with the Devils on Monday morning.

Don't forget to grab your copy of the 2019 Dobber Midseason Fantasy Hockey Guide!

Mats Zuccarello was not on the ice for the Rangers on Monday. They have him listed as day-to-day with a foot infection but isn’t expected to play Tuesday. He should be available later this week.

While I’m on the topic, the likely trade of Zuccarello is an interesting case of expectations. At present time, he has 24 points in 35 games but is playing on a very good top line and top PP unit for the Rangers, often cracking 20 minutes a night. Let’s say he gets traded to somewhere like Calgary or San Jose, where does he slot? Does he get 18 minutes a game? 17? 15? What about his power play ice time? It could be a case where, fantasy-wise, having him stay put might be the best thing for his fantasy owners. Be careful what you wish for.

Shayne Gostisbehere was a late scratch Monday night, taking warm-ups and then leaving. He has a lower-body injury but it's not expected to be severe. He could be back in a few days.

As mentioned before the break, the Sens are expecting Colin White back in the lineup this weekend.

On the topic of the trade deadline, it appears that the Flyers are prepared to trade just about anyone. There are a lot of very good pieces on this team so hopefully Fletcher doesn’t just blow it up.

The Lightning expect Tyler Johnson to suit up for the team on Wednesday, having missed the team’s game just before the All-Star break.

Seth Jones was not at Columbus practice on Monday but is expected to play Tuesday night. Just in case he’s not, Zach Werenski was on the top PP unit with Ryan Murray on the second unit.

We got a pretty significant trade during the games last night as defenceman Jake Muzzin was acquired by the Toronto Maple Leafs in exchange for prospects Carl Grundstrom and (unsigned) Sean Durzi, as well as Toronto’s first-round pick this season. It appears he’ll slot right alongside Morgan Rielly immediately.

You can read Dobber’s take on the trade here.

It was a beatdown in Pittsburgh as New Jersey came flying out of the break for a 6-3 win. The game wasn’t as close as even that score would indicate. Travis Zajac had a monster game with one goal and three assists. Blake Coleman chipped in a goal and an assist as well.

Zajac’s huge performance aside, Coleman is having a great season in leagues counting hits. He’s now up to 18 goals, 29 points, nearly three shots per game, and over 130 hits after posting seven in the victory over the Penguins. I wrote about him last offseason and why he was a gamble worth taking this year. All that was true then is still true now, just with a bigger sample to work with.

James van Riemsdyk continued his hot streak Monday night, scoring the insurance marker in Philadelphia’s 3-1 win over Winnipeg. That makes eight goals and 10 points in his last 10 games. Be careful though: he’s not shooting a lot just yet. He’s only had 20 shots on goal in those 10 games, shooting 40 percent in the meantime. This is a guy who’s averaged three shots on goal in multiple seasons, including just last year. It’s a tricky situation for fantasy owners.

Carter Hart made 31 saves in the win.

Let’s take a few minutes to review Jordan Kyrou.

Sunday night, Kyrou participated in the AHL All-Star skills competition, posting the third-fastest lap in the history of the fastest skater competition. I wasn’t watching, but I saw the tweets and that led me to this thought:

quick fantasy hockey tweet: Jordan Kyrou is the guy you should be fishing for in dynasty leagues as the trade deadline approaches.

— Michael Clifford (@SlimCliffy) January 28, 2019

As of right now, Kyrou is a point-per-game player in his rookie AHL season with 28 points as a 20-year old. What’s even more special about that is how bad the San Antonio Rampage are: he leads the team in points despite playing 15+ fewer games than much of the roster, and the team being the sixth-lowest scoring team in the league. He has high-end speed, which isn’t enough in itself, but he’s a high-speed playmaker as well, and that separates him from a lot of players in my mind. He’s needed every bit of that speed and playmaking to have as much success as he has on a team so devoid of top-end talent.

The question for me is where Kyrou fits once he sticks with the big club. They have Vladimir Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz, and David Perron all locked up for at least two more seasons after this one. Perron is capable of playing the left side if they so choose. If they decide to leave Perron on the right, Kyrou might be stuck on the third line for the time being.

All the same, this is about the lowest you’ll be able to pay for Kyrou for the foreseeable future, I think. He’s in the AHL and has already had an unsuccessful stint in the NHL. Maybe the Kyrou owner in your deep keeper or dynasty league is frustrated, or maybe he/she is looking for help this year to push for a title. It’s time to go fishing.

While on the topic of St. Louis wingers, don’t give up on Robby Fabbri yet, either. It has been a brutal 2018-19 season for him with just five points in 23 games, often finding himself either in the bottom-6 or a healthy scratch. Let’s be honest, though, it’s been a bad year for almost anyone in a Blues uniform to this point. If you didn’t draft Ryan O’Reilly or David Perron, you’re probably disappointed with your Blues selections.

But let’s not forget that over his first 123 regular season games from 2015-17, Fabbri had the same primary points per 60 minutes at five-on-five (1.37) as Mark Stone, and higher than names like Zach Parise, Patric Hornqvist, Tomas Hertl, and Jordan Eberle. It’s his first season after missing a year and a half with knee injuries and he just turned 23 years old last week.

This is basically a lost season for Fabbri but it’s also an important one. He’s back on the ice and has avoided catastrophic injury. That’s a win. Like Kyrou, his value will probably never be cheaper again in deep keeper/dynasty leagues than it is right now. It’s worth at least checking in with the Fabbri owner.

In my Ramblings last week, I intimated that there would be a discussion on defencemen, and more specifically, production from defencemen. Let’s start that discussion.

Production from the back end is something I’ve written about for years here on Dobber. It’s mainly due to the changing nature of the game and the evolution of the position, even as recently as the last five years. Blue liners are required not only to defend their net and blue line, but start the attack, and do so by carrying the puck or passing to the correct outlet. The days of glass-and-out are long gone.

For reference on what I’ve written in the past, in these Ramblings from April I discussed shot shares, in this one we reviewed goal shares at five-on-five and on the power play, while a third one covered changes in peripheral stats. Those are just a few of the Ramblings that have pored over different types and different levels of fantasy production from the back end going back years.

I wanted to go over scoring from the back end again here today.

Let’s start with something simple: how many 40-point defencemen have there been every season since the 2013 lockout campaign? It’s an arbitrary cut-off to be sure but fantasy owners often use it as a barometer for who is and who is not useful for fantasy purposes. These are the tallies (all from Hockey Reference):

Season

# of 40-point d-men

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

Season 2013-14 through 2016-17 didn’t see a whole lot of change, with the number of 40-point defencemen hovering around 25, give or take a couple. That exploded last season to 30 rear guards, but that shouldn’t be a huge surprise given that scoring in 2017-18 was the highest it had been in a decade. Given that scoring is up again this year, we’d assume more defencemen would crack 40 points, right? Well, as of Monday afternoon, we had 27 defencemen in the NHL with at least 40 games played this season and averaging 0.49 points per game (which is 40 points in 82 games).

So, are defencemen producing less from the blue line? Well, it’s not so simple.

Again, as of today, we have 27 defencemen on pace for 40-point seasons (games played depending), which is fewer than we’d expect. However, we do have three defencemen on pace for point-per-game seasons: Morgan Rielly, Mark Giordano, and Brent Burns. Only one defenceman was a point-per-game blue liner over any of those five seasons in the table (Erik Karlsson had 82 points in 2015-16). So far this season, we have eight defencemen having played at least 40 games while averaging 0.85 points per game (70-point seasons). From 2013-2018, we had just six instances of a defenceman cracking 70 points, and the only guy not named Erik Karlsson or Brent Burns to do so was Victor Hedman in 2016-17 (72).

In summary, at least to this point of the season, we’re seeing a decline in the number of players on pace for 40-point campaigns compared to 2017-18 (which was a five-year high) but we’re seeing a big uptick in players at the upper-end of the production spectrum. Just think about it: if current paces hold, we’ll have more defencemen crack 70 points this year (8) than in the previous five seasons combined (6) while having fewer 40-point defencemen (27) than last season (30) and as many as 2014-15. It’s quite the paradox.

That’s it for today on defencemen but this conversation is far from over. The reason for having higher highs from blue liners but fewer 40-point guys is confounding. I’m sure there’s a logical reason for this but I want to be a bit more thorough so I’ll continue on Thursday.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-updates-on-byfuglien-jones-and-zuccarello-kyrou-and-fabbri-blue-line-production-january-29/

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bacchus0153 · 7 years

Text

Thoughts on Healthcare Reform

Original Post from 2009, with updates.

The single most problematic issue with our healthcare system is the purchasing structure. There is no way we would have ended up with a system that features one party purchasing the equivalent of a service plan and extended 3P warranty (note: not an insurance plan) on behalf of the one who would ultimately consume the services if it weren't for some historical distortions involving price controls, and then incentives written in to the current tax structures. The consumer is two steps removed from caring about the ultimate price of the services, or having any power to really negotiate anything. [UPDATE: See http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-why-health-insurance-is-so-weird-2013-11 on the strangeness of health "insurance."]

Again, it's not insurance, generally. And to the extent we move to disallow exclusions for pre-existing conditions, it ceases to be insurance at all. But this may not be a bad thing, given the progress of science and genetics in identifying what disease will likely kill you (minus a car wreck or an encounter with a great white shark or something). See:http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2009/07/the-inevitable-socialisation-of-health-care-financing/

Note that this has nothing to do with a profit motive in insurers. It's the basic economics of insurance. [UPDATE: Note this liberal economic critique of Obamacare: https://baselinescenario.com/2016/05/09/the-problem-with-obamacare/ ]

We really need to separate out medical care into 5 baskets (maybe the first two could be combined; same with the last two): 1) Real public goods, like vaccinations; 2) basic diagnostic and preventative care (if the government is picking up the tab, this essentially included in 1); 3) Basic medical care; 4) Catastrophic injury care and rehab; or 5) long-term deadly disease care.

In my mind, the government should pay for 1 for sure; I could be convinced that it should also pay for 2; people should pay for 3 themselves; and insurance should be purchased or a socialized risk pool created to cover 4 and 5. To the extent genetics advances to the point of eliminating uncertainty on diseases, this may need to be socialized, which would essentially mean that instead of insurance people would pay into a government-controlled pool that is set up like something akin to insurance.

We should look closely at two systems that for some reason people don't seem to be talking about nearly as much as Canada's and Europe's:

Australia: http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2009/08/health-care-reform-and-single-payer.html

and Singapore: http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=2974 ; http://www.american.com/archive/2008/may-june-magazine-contents/the-singapore-model

I'd lean toward Singapore.But a hybrid system with Australian-style hospitals and instacare facilities for basic and also to provide basics for the indigent undergirding a Singapore style could work really well.

[UPDATE: Some people have told me that they don't think we could do an Australian-style system because of how much it would cost to build the hospitals. I would agree - if we had to build them all from the ground up. There are already a whole lot of government-owned and run hospitals in the U.S., and it may well be more efficient and better to put them all under central management in service of this type of system. The first group is the VA hospitals. The second group are those government hospitals that are run by local governments (city and county hospitals) and state governments (particularly state-run university hospitals). Starting with that as a base, we could definitely get something going pretty quickly.]

[UPDATE: A good post on why it's culturally difficult for Americans to agree on healthcare reform: http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/the-cultural-roots-of-americas-health-care-policy-mess/ ]

[UPDATE: Tom Hardman put together a great summary of the main ways other countries have enacted universal (or near-universal) coverage here: https://tomhardmanblog.wordpress.com/2017/03/11/health-care-seeing-both-sides/

Quoting Tom:

"All other wealthy, technologically advanced, industrial democracies in the world guarantee a basic level of medical care to anyone who gets sick, while spending far less than the U.S. does on health care.

There are three basic models that countries use to provide universal coverage:

—The Bismarck Model: This model uses private health care providers (doctors, nurses, hospitals, etc.) and private health insurance companies. All citizens are required to purchase health insurance, the government exercises tight regulatory control over insurance coverage and pricing, and health insurance companies are non-profit entities. This kind of model is found in Germany, France, Japan, Switzerland, the Netherlands, and Belgium. (Obamacare is quite similar to the Bismarck model, but Obamacare’s individual mandate is much weaker than in other countries that use this model.)

—The Beveridge Model: This is probably what Americans have in mind when they talk about “socialized medicine.” With this model, health care is provided and financed by the government, through tax payments. There are no medical bills, insurance premiums, or co-payments; rather, medical treatment is a public service, like the fire department. Most hospitals and clinics are owned by the government, and most doctors are government employees. Countries using the Beveridge Model, or variations on it, include Great Britain, Italy, Spain, Scandinavian countries, and Hong Kong.

—The National Health Insurance (Single-Payer) Model: This is the kind of health insurance system that Bernie Sanders was proposing: the providers of health care are private, but the payer is a government-run insurance program that every citizen pays into. The paradigmatic single-payer system is Canada’s; Australia, Taiwan, and South Korea have adopted variations on the single-payer model."

Singapore is a hybrid model based on The Bismark Model, but with improvements. It's still my favorite - see: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/18/opinion/sunday/make-america-singapore.html ]

And I still would have worries about impacting medical innovation ( http://www.futurepundit.com/archives/006455.html ; http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columns/OpEd-Contributor/The-hidden-cost-of-national-health-care-7952906-50469092.html ), but I find it increasingly difficult to justify forcing American consumers to subsidize foreign consumers of medical technology, including both drugs and devices. [UPDATE: See http://time.com/money/4130688/prescription-drug-prices-america/ and also http://www.ibtimes.com/how-us-subsidizes-cheap-drugs-europe-2112662 ][UPDATE: Some more claims on high drug prices being the result of some regulations http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2016/09/economist-explains-2?fsrc=scn/fb/te/bl/ed/whydrugpricesinamericaaresohigh ][UPDATE: Another factor in high pharmaceutical costs: oligopoly among prescription benefit manageement companies: http://prospect.org/article/hidden-monopolies-raise-drug-prices-0 ]

Some more ideas: I'd increase the supply of doctors - the AMA's cartel both keeps out highly qualified foreign practioners and also won't increase the number of accredited schools producing doctors here at home. Additionally, there should be transparent and up-front pricing for all services, to allow for price discrimination and competition on price in addition to quality. [UPDATE: See here for a few more supply-side ideas: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2017/03/supply-side-health-care-reform.html ]

I'd increase the non-hospital urgent care facilities for check ups for kids with fevers and broken arms and such - kind of similar to Australia's system of public hospitals. It might make sense just to build those. You could start with using the VA and academic hospitals - maybe state and local government-run hospitals, too.

If we need to keep insurance, then I'd nationalize (as opposed to state-level that is) insurance regulation, including creation of standards for minimum insurance and create a true catastrophic-only policy.

Oh, and lest I forget: reform malpractice law.http://correspondents.theatlantic.com/philip_howard/2009/08/stonewalling_legal_reform.php

[UPDATE: And don't let anyone try to claim that there isn't a sizable amount to be saved just from reforming billing practices and forcing providers to give upfront pricing. We spend 25% of our healthcare total on administrative costs, many relating to coding for billing. See https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/29/magazine/those-indecipherable-medical-bills-theyre-one-reason-health-care-costs-so-much.html ]

We should look to improve; we should be wary about messing up the good points of what we have. [UPDATE: And, contra many stories, what we have is pretty darn good - for example, life-expectancy, after controlling for accidents and violence (which are not really health-care related), puts the U.S. at the top: https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/us-healthcare-most-people-dont-know-what-theyre-talking-about ]UPDATE: And, we already spend a more on healthcare for the poor than on healthcare for the rich: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2017/06/americans-spend-money-health-care-poor.html ]

One final point: There is no paradox if you hold the two following beliefs simultaneously: 1) You think there are issues with the current system that could be improved; and 2) You don't want to support something you think will make things worse overall.

Here are some other ideas of what we could do instead of Obamacare:

[UPDATED: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/06/options-for-health-care-reform.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/21/opinion/how-trump-can-fix-health-care.html?_r=0]

http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2009/11/what-should-we-do-instead-of-the-health-reform-bill.html

Here are some other good posts or articles thinking about the issues:

http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2007/10/how-to-debate-h.html

http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2006/03/19/health-care-fantasia/

http://meganmcardle.theatlantic.com/archives/2009/09/practical_philosophy_again.php

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200909/health-care

http://keithhennessey.com/2009/08/28/who-should-decide-part-1/

http://www.hoover.org/publications/digest/49525427.html

http://meganmcardle.theatlantic.com/archives/2009/07/a_public_plan_and_the_law_of_u.php

http://meganmcardle.theatlantic.com/archives/2009/07/extreme_health_care.php

and

http://daylightsmark.blogspot.com/2009/07/health-care-those-who-are-not-liberal.html

Those are my thoughts - anyone have any better ideas?

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