thrashermaxey

[thrashermaxey]

Finding positive thoughts for the non-playoff teams

The​ first round is​ a weird​ time​ to​ be​ a fan​ of a non-playoff​ team.

On the one​ hand, it’s like​ being​ the kid who’s​​ sick at home, watching with your nose pressed up against your bedroom window while everyone else frolics outside. On the other hand, sometimes the playoffs are more fun when you don’t have a rooting interest, or at least less stressful. And more importantly, as all those playoff teams get eliminated, their fans get to be sad too. Welcome to the pity party, losers.

Therefore, I can understand if you non-playoff fans have some mixed feelings these days. But today, let’s try to tilt the scale to the bright side. Let’s go through all 15 teams that didn’t make the postseason and come up with at least three positive thoughts as we head into the offseason. And since that will admittedly be more difficult for some teams than others, we’ll work our way down from the easiest to the most challenging case.

Positive thoughts, everyone. Let’s find our happy place. Starting with the easiest non-playoff team to feel good about …

Florida Panthers

The negative: Despite plenty of young talent, they missed the playoffs yet again and still haven’t won a single playoff round since 1996.

Positive thought No. 1: All that young talent is still there and most of it should still be getting better. Sasha Barkov is still just 23 and is already considered one of the league’s elite young players (not to mention among the very best cap values). Mix in a breakout year from Jonathan Huberdeau and some of the pieces are already in place.

Positive thought No. 2: They just hired one of the best coaches ever in Joel Quenneville. Will all due respect to Bob Boughner, that should be a massive upgrade behind the bench.

Positive thought No. 3: They’ve made it clear that they’re going to spend a ton in the offseason, which we all assume includes signing two-time Vezina winner Sergei Bobrovsky. Goaltending sunk them this year, so adding a star there changes the team’s entire outlook even if they don’t make any other moves.

See? Optimism is easy. Granted, the Panthers are the tutorial level. Let’s up the difficulty just a bit.

Arizona Coyotes

The negative: The Coyotes missed the playoffs for the seventh straight year, the longest streak in a Western Conference where only one other team has missed for more than two.

Positive thought No. 1: The Coyotes finished the year with more wins than they’ve had since their last trip to the postseason. They won ten more games and had 16 more points than last year, so there was very clear progress. That obviously doesn’t guarantee anything, but it’s better than the alternative.

Positive thought No. 2: That progress came despite a season marred by plenty of injuries to key players. That included their starting goalie, a loss that would have derailed most teams. Every team has injuries, but give the Coyotes slightly better luck in the health department and they make the playoffs. And even with all those injuries, they still won more games than the Avalanche, who are already on to the second round.

Positive thought No. 3: Speaking of goaltending, the Coyotes head into 2019-20 with two potential starters in Antti Raanta and Darcy Kuemper, which is two more than some of the other teams on this list have. That could lock down an important position, or it could open the door to a trade. Either way, the Coyotes are in solid shape heading into next season and most of us probably already have them penciled into the playoff race.

New York Rangers

The negative: You know how sometimes you think a team will be bad and even they seem to think they’ll be bad, but then miraculously they’re actually really good? That happened to a New York team this year, but it wasn’t the Rangers.

Positive thought No. 1: It’s a rebuild. Jeff Gorton has made that clear. This season had its ups and downs, but it was basically all part of the plan. If anything, they won a few more than most of us expected.

Positive thought No. 2: They won the lottery and will pick second, meaning they’ll almost certainly get a blue-chip prospect in Jack Hughes or (more likely) Kaapo Kakko. They overachieved expectations and still got a potential franchise player. It was the best of both worlds.

Positive thought No. 3: In addition to their own pick, they also have Winnipeg’s first and Tampa’s second. And don’t look now, but they might still get the Stars’ first too, if Dallas makes it to the third round.

Montreal Canadiens

The negative: They came into the season’s final week in good shape to snag a wild card, but stumbled and missed the playoffs. That makes this just the second time since the 1920s that they’ve missed in consecutive years.

Wait, that’s can’t be right.

(Double checks the numbers.)

Wow.

Positive thought No. 1: They missed the playoffs by two points in a year when just about everyone thought they’d be terrible. And they did it while racking up more points than three Western playoff teams. That might be a sign that the format is unfair, but it reinforces how strong a season Montreal just had.

Positive thought No. 2: Goaltending is crucial for every team, but when you’re paying your starter a league-high $10.5 million against the cap, you absolutely have to be getting All-Star level play out of the position. In recent years, Carey Price hadn’t always provided that. But this year, the old Price was back. Wait, Habs fans probably want us to avoid the word “old” here.

Positive thought No. 3: Remember when everyone thought Marc Bergevin was a terrible GM who’d surely be fired any day now? You should since it was less than a year ago. But this year’s moves largely worked out and Bergevin’s reputation has at least been given a polish. That’s good news for Habs fans, seeing as how Geoff Molson has apparently decided that Bergevin will be around forever.

OK, this hasn’t been too bad, but I’m pretty sure that’s the last 96-point team we’re going to find on our list. Let’s bear down and think positive.

>> Read the full post at The Athletic

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from All About Sports http://www.downgoesbrown.com/2019/04/finding-positive-thoughts-for-non.html

[thrashermaxey]

Ramblings: Insanity in San Jose, The Bruins 2nd Line, & Impact of Coach Q in Florida

  It's the greatest day of the year. Seventh game great. Tuesday evening featured four clubs playing for their lives and that always brings the best/worst out of each player. Some rise to the occasion, others crumble under the pressure. As someone without a rooting interest, it's a very pleasurable experience. For all of you Leafs/Bruins/Sharks/Golden Knights fans out there, I apologize. I hope you tried some deep breathing exercises. I hear they can be helpful. Take note, Caps and Canes fans.

  Boston kept their barn rocking with two first period tallies off of two terrible defensive plays by Toronto. One off the stick and Travis Dermott, the second off a Jake Gardiner turnover. With that minus, Gardiner now owns the dubious distinction of the worst plus-minus rating in game 7 history. Yikes. Do you hear that sound? That's the sound of his UFA contract dropping in value. 

  "Last year, Jake Gardiner was a minus-5 in Game 7. It's been a tough 1st period for the pair of Dermott-Gardiner. The reverse to nowhere…& a good job by Johansson to find the far post." @NHLonNBCSports analyst @BrianBoucher33 on Marcus Johansson's goal, 2-0 Bruins. #TORvsBOS pic.twitter.com/JVVH8aDUcV

— NBC Sports PR (@NBCSportsPR) April 23, 2019

    John Tavares cut the lead to one with a second-period goal – his second of the series, but that was as close as they would come. The Bruins would tally three more goals in the final frame – two via the open cage variety, and sent the Leafs packing in game seven for the third time in the last seven seasons. Needless to say, the Bruins appear to have their number. 

  It didn't take long for pundits to call for Mike Babcock's head. To criticize his deployment, his inability to shuffle lines, or match up successfully while at home. These are all fair criticisms, but at the end of the day, Toronto's backend wasn't good enough, Freddie Andersen let in a soft one to begin the game, and outside of Auston Matthews, the big guns didn't do enough. 

  The Leafs remain one of the brightest, youngest teams and will continue on the rise in 2019-20. That said, their inability to win a playoff series is bordering on ridiculous and is clearly eating the fanbase from the inside out. Since the salary cap era began in 2005, only the Leafs and Panthers have yet to win a series. That's one ugly stat. 

  They've also now wasted the entry-level contract of Matthews and Mitch Marner. Things will only become more difficult from here to fit everyone in. So what kind of changes can we expect heading into next fall for the Buds? Well, Gardiner and his four million will be gone. They'll need to find 10 million for Marner, hefty raises for Andreas Johnsson and Kasperi Kapanen. Things will need to be shuffled to keep the core together. Do the William Nylander rumours resurface? If so, there will likely a few teams standing around tossing boat anchor offers to Kyle Dubas. 

  **

Many pundits have been calling David Pastrnak out for his less than stellar play in the first round of the playoffs – this despite him producing six points over the seven-game series. That said, I've really enjoyed the David Krejci, Jake DeBrusk and Pastrnak combo on the second line. DeBrusk and Krejci have found some strong chemistry this season and adding a dynamic finisher like Pasta really opens things up. Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand are strong enough to drive a line without Pastrnak and still put up gaudy totals. 

  Don't be surprised if we see these combinations more next season. It's not ideal for fantasy owners as a complete top-line stack can be dynamite, but it's only a minor downtick for the big three and a nice uptick for DeBrusk and Krejci. I'll put this out here right now, DeBrusk has my seal of approval for a breakout in 2019-20.

  **

Out west, the Sharks and Golden Knights met in Northern California. This series looked all but finished when Vegas dummied San Jose 5-0 in game four to take a 3-1 series lead. However, the Sharks came out and took games five and six to push it back home for a chance to eliminate the reigning Western Conference champions. 

  San Jose played well early, leading the shot count 11-4 through the first frame. However, as has been the case for much of Martin Jones' tenor, the Sharks found themselves down on the scoreboard. William Karlsson tallied to make it 1-0 before Cody Eakin found the back of the net in the second frame. 

  The third period came along and Max Pacioretty scored his fifth of the postseason to make it 3-0. He and Mark Stone continue to lead all playoff producers with 11 and 12 points respectively in seven contests. That appeared to be all the boys from Sin City needed to advance to second round and date with the upstart Avalanche. 

  UNTIL THIS HAPPENED! 

https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/04/SJ-WOW.mp4

  Eakin takes a 5-minute major that ended Joe Pavelski's night with a scary incident as he lands on his head and needed help off the ice.  It did not take long for the Sharks to rally around their fallen captain. Four power-play goals in 241 seconds with Kevin Labanc getting in on all of them – recording a goal and three helpers. That tied an NHL playoff record for the most points in a single period.

  This is why you never change the channel too early!

  But but but.. I had already written the Sharks obituary for tonight’s Ramblings when they were down 3-0 with half a period to play!

My poor words. They never had a chance.

— /Cam Robinson/ (@Hockey_Robinson) April 24, 2019

  I should've known better. 

  Labanc continued to play a role as he took a penalty with four minutes remaining but his mates picked him up – including the goaltender as Jones channelled his inner Trevor Kidd on this one

  https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/04/Jones-Kidd.mp4

  However, the Golden Knights would not go quietly into the night. With the goaltender pulled and SIX forwards on the ice, Jonathan Marchessault scored to tie the game with 47 seconds remaining to force overtime. I absolutely love that Gerard Gallant rolled out six forwards with the season on the line. Hazah for creativity! 

  Timo Meier was an absolute beast in this one. He played X amount with an assist and nine shots on goal. He almost ended it in OT with these sweet moves only to be stymied by Marc-Andre Fleury

    Timo Meier with the filthy dangles. But no one gets by Fleury's poke. pic.twitter.com/u7x4A50LEV

— /Cam Robinson/ (@Hockey_Robinson) April 24, 2019

  All that was left to do was see who would play hero…

  https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/04/Apr-23-2019-22-28-13.mp4

  Barclay Goodrow in his second shift of overtime. The man with just seven minutes played on the evening completed the comeback in the game and in the series for San Jose in fabulous fashion. The Sharks move on. 

  Of course, Vegas will have a difficult time recovering from this one – especially Cody Eakin. But this team is loaded with nearly all of its players signed through next season. William Karlsson will need another deal, but it’s unlikely he pulls much of a raise on his current 5.25 million. They have one of the top prospects in the game in Cody Glass coming as well.

  This is not the last we’ve heard from them.

  **

On a less adrenaline-induced note, there have been several coaching changes already this spring and we have yet to conclude the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. The odds say we’ll see at least one more before the calendar turns over to July. With a new man at the helm, there will inevitably be changes afoot. And with deployment acting as the literal lifeblood of the fantasy world, the implications can be massive.

  In Florida, Bob Boughner is out and three-time Stanley Cup winner, Joel Quenneville is in. Quenneville will have no shortage of offensive firepower to deploy in South Florida (this remains true even if they don’t land Artemi Panarin in free agency), and he’s proven quite successful in finding elite minutes for elite players.

  Under Quenneville, Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews never witnessed their average ice-time drop below 18:30 – with a high-water mark of around 21:30 in 2016-17.  We can rest assured that Sasha Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau will likely live in the same ballparks, but this represents a slight decrease for the 23-year-old Finn. Barkov has averaged over 22 minutes in each of the last two seasons. Huberdeau lives in the 17:00-18:30 arena and should comfortably be pegged there. We’ll have to wait and see if the new coach leans on the team’s superstar as much as his predecessor did.

  As far as club achievements, clearly his 10+ season resume with the Hawks is chalked full of accomplishments. Outside of the three rings, he brought the club to 100-plus point seasons in seven of the campaigns, and a 97-point season tossed in as well. The concern was the stagnation that happened towards the end of his tenor in Chicago. The team immediately found their offensive prowess once he left town in November 2018, after many of the top guys witnessed career-lows the season prior. Successful franchises have steadily gotten faster and faster with each passing season, and this may not jive well with Coach Q’s penchant for airtight defensive schemes.

  Here’s the thing though, losing a few goals to save a bucket more is exactly what this team needs. Their 267 tallies this past season was fifth most in the East and good for ninth best in the league. Florida also boasted the second most lethal power-play, clicking at 26.8 percent for the campaign. For reference, that mark is the third highest we’ve seen in the last 30 years.

  However, it’s the 280 goals against that are the real problem. That mark landed them 14th in the East and 28th overall. Like I said, perhaps they can afford to lose a few goals for more team success – but that’s not exactly what fantasy owners want to hear.

  Florida has a bright, young, fantasy-filled roster. Barkov is an elite pillar. Huberdeau, Vincent Trocheck, and Keith Yandle each bring upper echelon value to specific leagues. Mike Hoffman, Evgeni Dadonov, and Aaron Ekblad are above-average. Additionally, they boast some of the brightest young prospects in the game with Henrik Borgstrom, Grigori Denisenko, Owen Tippett, and Aleksi Heponiemi coming up the pipe.

  However, expecting a replication, or a continuation, on the career-high seasons by Barkov, Huberdeau and company may be foolish. Shave 5-8 points off of each skater, bump up the goaltender value (whomever that ends up being) and go about your draft preparation.

  **

Over in Sweden, the World U18 Championships are underway. The Americans are destroying the competition thus far. At the top of the heap are linemates, Jack Hughes and Cole Caufield. You've likely heard all about Hughes by now. He's an explosive and creative skater who brings the entire buffet of offensive skills. Thus far, he has five goals and 12 points through four games and is pushing Alex Ovechkin for the most all-time points at this event. Hughes had 12 in seven games last year. 

  But it's Caufield I wanted to talk about. Standing just 5-6 and 157lbs, he's certainly not your prototypical first-round draft choice. Hell, most years a player that sized won't hear their name called at all. But Caufield is special. He's up to 69 goals in 61 games this season and recently broke the all-time goal record for the USNTDP. Sure, he lives next to supreme passers in Hughes and Trevor Zegras at the Program, but his ability to find the soft areas and quickly and efficiently put the puck into the back of the net is special. 

  It's a record breaking 10th goal of the tourney for Cole Caufield and a 2-0 Team USA lead.

A gorgeous pass from Trevor Zegras sets up Caufield for the pretty finish. #U18Worlds #NTDP pic.twitter.com/0bA59wTIvA

— Stars n’ Stripes Hockey (@StarsStripesHKY) April 23, 2019

    Clubs surely regret allowing Alex DeBincat to fall to the second round in 2016. There is much more risk in selecting a player his size in the top-15, but that appears to be exactly where he'll go. At this rate, I'd be somewhat surprised if he's still sitting there at #10. If Caufield were an elite skater, he could be making a very real case for third overall. 

  All this said he's a player you should have earmarked in dynasty drafts. One capable of filling the net and the shots on goal ticker. 

  **

Follow me on Twitter @Hockey_Robinson

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-game-7s-bruins-2nd-line-impact-of-coach-q-in-florida/

[thrashermaxey]

Eastern Edge: Goals and Expected Goals Among Right Wingers in the Metro

  Thus far in my offseason Eastern Edge columns, we’ve supposedly uncovered the pitfall of drafting Jeff Skinner next season regardless where he signs this summer, and we’ve zeroed in on Anthony Mantha as a must draft.  This week, we will continue this discussion with right wingers in the Metro.  There were quite a few great seasons in the Metro and a couple of players who I’m excited about for next season.

The graph below highlight RW goal scoring abilities this year in the Metro.  The graph can help you visualize where a player falls with regards to their actual goal totals and the difference between actual and expected goals scored (X-Axis), and their individual shooting percentage from this year (Y-Axis).  Given that the league average shooting percentage is around 11% you can see if there are any big names on the list that fall in the category of having a below average shooting percentage and room to grow in the actual goals scored.  More than anything I think that this graph can find you a couple extra goals and make sure you realizes that 40 goals by one player may mean that they could fall back to 32 next year.  Player skill/opportunity is still something to remember – just because Ondrej Palat ends up in quadrant that tends to be a BUY area doesn’t mean he’s a 40-goal scorer.  Please note that all the data used to create this graph is for a 5v5 situation and was obtained via Corsica.Hockey.

    Andrei Svechnikov – Some games this season Svechnikov put it all together and showed everyone why he was selected second overall in the 2018 Entry Draft; other days he was the 37-point player over an 82-game season.  For those who were watching him though – you noticed what force is going to be coming.  His 5v5 shot data suggests he was owned a couple more goals, as he matures he should get a couple more minutes of ice time next season and I hope that he’ll find his way onto the top unit with Aho.  There is no reason to wait for the fourth year breakout, and wouldn’t you rather be a year early than a year late?

Jordan Eberle – probably chalk this one up to the big game play of his recent playoff run, but man I had been beating the drum of Eberle all year saying his tough string of luck in his IPP can’t continue.   What I’m more excited about with Eberle is where he will be playing next season.  Without the choke hold of the Barry Trotz defensive unit – can we see Eberle return to 5v5 form and flirt with 200 SOG again?  The best part of all of this concocted storyline is that he also looks to be a player that is going to be able to easily produce value on his ADP.

Kyle Palmieri – Last season Palmieri was someone who I couldn’t wait to draft; sadly he didn’t fall as far as I had hoped he would and I didn’t get him on a single team.  Here’s the thing about Palmieri: his 55-point pace probably would have been a little better if Taylor Hall didn’t go down in December.  His shooting percentage was 12% and right in line with his career norm, if anything slightly depressed.  While Palmieri is definitely in the upper area of the graph that I would tend to say is going to not return value next season, my hunch says that we’re still going to see an ADP that could return value for Palmieri.  Obviously as a player I’m intrigued with we’ll see more as the rankings start coming out this summer, but don’t write him off because he didn’t produce the 65 points many had hoped he would.

Cam Atkinson – Atkinson was the darling of the first half of the season where he put up 44 points in the first 40 games and then only 27 points in his remaining 40 games.  He put up a 71-point pace with almost 300 SOG all but assuring poolies that he will be drafted in the first five round this coming season.  It’s worrisome because that value of draft capital is not as stable as one might perceive with Artemi Panarin having one leg out the door, a career high 13.9% shooting percentage, and a relatively large gap in ixGF and actual goals scored.  This isn’t to say that Atkinson is going to crash and burn for only 50 points next year; it’s a matter of reflection on the importance of spending your draft capital wisely.  Why spend a 5th round pick when a 7th round pick can produce similar dividends with another player?  

Patric Hornqvist – It seems like the days of fantasy relevance are all but gone for Hornqvist.  He saw a dramatic decrease of 50 SOG in the same amount of games played in 2017-2018 to this season, further extinguishing one of his premier stat categories.  Sidney Crosby has not explicitly said it to the media but the rumor is that he would rather not play with Hornqvist.  Unfortunately for the Penguins, the four more seasons they have tied up in Hornqvist don’t look as great as they did when they re-signed him last summer.

  See you next week for a look at Metro LWs.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/eastern-edge/eastern-edge-goals-and-expected-goals-among-right-wingers-in-the-metro/

[thrashermaxey]

The 2019 playoffs are total chaos. Is that good? It depends on your door

The​ 2019 NHL playoffs​ are​ chaos.

On​ that,​ we​ can​ all agree.​ The argument comes​ with the second​ half​ of the equation,​​ which we’ll get to in a minute. But chaos? Honestly, that might be underselling it.

As far as things playing out as expected, we’ve got the Maple Leafs and Bruins going to Game 7, which we all figured was coming. The Capitals are in good position to beat the Hurricanes, although it’s been a tougher battle that most one-versus-wildcard matchups. The Islanders were technically the favorite over the Penguins, although nobody saw that one ending in four.

Beyond that? Madness. The first round has been a steady stream of upset exits, ranging from mildly surprising (Jets) to shocking (maybe the Predators Monday) to stunning (Flames) to incomprehensible (Lightning). Both top seeds are out, and it’s possible that all four division winners could be done in Round 1. The Islanders might be the only home-ice team to make it out alive. I don’t know what your bracket looks like, but I know it’s busted, and I wouldn’t be shocked if more than a few of you are staring down the possibility of an oh-for-eight.

That should be pretty close to impossible, but here we are. Nothing makes sense, nobody knows what’s going on, and none of us have the slightest clue what’s going to happen next. It’s chaos. We all agree.

Here’s the part where the argument starts: Is all this chaos a good thing?

I’ve asked that question in a few places, and something very strange happens whenever I do. Take this tweet, which quotes from a post I wrote a few weeks ago and then adds what seems like a reasonably lukewarm take: “I’m not sure this kind of Tampa upset is really a good thing for the NHL.” I tweeted that a week ago, and lots of people called me an idiot. That’s not strange – it’s Twitter, you can’t say anything without getting called an idiot. But the reaction was split almost exactly down the middle, with half of the people in the “Can you believe this idiot?” camp and half on the “Yep, this is how I feel too” side of the fence.

Here’s the strange part: More than a few fans on both sides didn’t seem to understand why the point even needed to be made. It was either the dumbest thing they’d ever heard, or the most obvious. There were all these hockey fans, just about evenly divided, who didn’t even seem to be aware that the other side of the debate even existed. It was Yanny vs. Laurel for the NHL playoff crowd.

It’s weird. Even when hockey fans get really mad over replay review or suspensions or fighting or whatever else, they tend to at least be aware that there’s another side. Not here. All of these upsets are obviously a good thing. Or they’re very obviously not. Why are we even talking about this?

I think I’ve figured out what’s going on.

Picture yourself standing in front of two doors. It’s Day 1 of the playoffs, when everything is still all shiny and new and nobody’s brackets are busted yet. You’re about to settle in for two months of NHL postseason action. But first, you have to decide which door you want to go through. You’re probably going to pick the same door you pick every year. You’re probably so used to picking that door that you don’t even realize the other one is there. But which door you pick ends up deciding a lot about how you view the playoffs, and whether you’re enjoying this year’s edition.

The first door stars with a belief, and it goes like this: The best team always wins the Stanley Cup.

It’s not the team with the best regular season record, because while the regular season tells us something, it’s not enough. It’s not the team with the biggest stars, or even the most talent top-to-bottom. It’s not the team with the best special teams or the smartest coach or the loudest fans or even the hottest goaltender, because while all of that certainly helps, it can only take you so far. And that’s what it’s all about: How far you can go.

One team goes all the way, while the other fifteen go home. When it’s over, one team is left standing, and that team is the best. They always were, even if we didn’t realize it until the very end.

In essence, if you choose door No. 1, you view the Stanley Cup playoffs as a two-month tournament designed to reveal the identity of the best team. The system can be ruthlessly efficient, discarding some teams almost immediately. It can also tease us with fakes and misdirection, baiting us into thinking we’ve figured out the identity of the best team, only to have the case dramatically collapse, leaving some other team as the new favorite.

But the key point is that the best team always wins. The occasional controversy aside, the system has a pretty much perfect success rate. It’s brutal and exhausting for everyone involved, but it works, and in the end the best team is left standing. They win because they’re the best. They’re the best because they won.

>> Read the full post at The Athletic

(Want to read this post on The Athletic for free? Sign up for a free seven-day trial.)

from All About Sports http://www.downgoesbrown.com/2019/04/the-2019-playoffs-are-total-chaos-is.html

[thrashermaxey]

Ramblings: Jets and Flames Post-Knockout; Keller; Playoff Hockey – April 23

  It was locker cleaning day for the Winnipeg Jets and there was a lot of interesting tidbits to come of it.

There were a lot of votes of confidence for coach Paul Maurice, namely one coming from Blake Wheeler, with the captain saying he’d run through a brick wall for his bench boss.

The Jets have made the playoff in three out of five years with Maurice behind the bench full time and that includes last year’s trip to the Conference Final. Quite honestly, I don’t know whether Maurice is a good coach or not, and I don’t think the vast majority of hockey fans and analysts don’t either. Some people may point to questionable lineup decisions but literally every coach has those, so pointing it out isn’t unique to Winnipeg. The team has become more disciplined, ranking in the top-5 for short-handed opportunities every year from 2014-15 through 2017-18 before finishing 9th this year, so maybe he’s helping in this area?

Whatever the Jets decide to do, they better make sure if they decide to get a new coach that he’s better than what they have. The grass isn’t always greener – just look at Los Angeles since the end of Darryl Sutter’s tenure.

As for Patrik Laine, we may have a reason for his, let’s say, lackluster performance in the regular season: a back injury he was fighting throughout the year. The extent and nature are unknown, but any tweak would be enough to throw anyone off-kilter. Keep this in mind: Laine had a 30-goal season as a 20-year old, his third consecutive 30-goal season, while fighting through a back problem. Any and all inquiries as to What’s Wrong With Laine should now be settled.

In that tweet, we found it Nikolaj Ehlers fractured his leg during Game 5 of the playoffs. I assume that if he was fine enough to keep playing, any sort of recovery won’t linger into next year. Of course, once we have a more definitive answer, we’ll pass it along.

Josh Morrissey was still battling the effects from a separated shoulder earlier in the season that kept him out of the lineup for six weeks until the postseason. This was obvious as Morrissey typically played 22-ish minutes a night but played just 18 minutes a night in the playoffs.

We won’t know until we hear more about Laine, but it does not appear any of these issues will be long-term.

As I mentioned in these Ramblings before the playoffs, there were a lot of injuries for the Jets in the second half of the season. Morrissey, Ehlers, and Byfuglien were the ones we knew about, and now we know about Laine. It makes sense that this team did not look the same from January onward as it did from October through December. They’re a team with Cup aspirations but I hope they don’t blow it up. All of Laine, Jacob Trouba, and Kyle Connor are RFAs. I hope to see them all back next year.

*

There wasn’t nearly as much to report from media day for the Calgary Flames. It was mostly just discussion about how disappointing they were to lose out in the first round. There were no major injuries or anything along those lines to report, even Sean Monahan.

One interesting quote came from Matthew Tkachuk about how the playoffs are so much different than the regular season and he knows that better now that they’ve failed.

I bolded the word because it really reminds me of a lot of teams in the past. In 2007-08, the Blackhawks, a team on the rise, missed the playoffs by three points. The year after, they made the playoffs and lost in the Conference Final, winning the Cup the following season. The Penguins lost in the first round in 2007, lost in the Finals in 2008, and finally broke through in 2009 for the Cup. It’s not to say Calgary will win the Cup, and they’ve probably wanted to go deeper in the playoffs by now, but I see some other similarities here.

The problem would be that a major cog in their team, Mark Giordano, turns 36 in October. They can’t replace a Norris-calibre defenceman should he start to really decline. But if he doesn’t, there’s no reason to be pessimistic about this team.

*

Just want to point everyone in the direction of Cam Robinson’s 2019 draft rankings. He has a little write-up on the guys he has ranked in the first round as well as a complete list of his first three rounds, all the way to 93rd overall.

I also want to point in the direction of Jokke Nevalainen, who has been posting updates throughout the World U-18 Championship. You can read his first update here and his second one here.

Aside from Cam and Jokke’s great work, we have an army of scouts and writers doing lots of work at Dobber Prospects leading up to the draft. Be sure to check constantly for updates on the players you’ll be drafting in dynasty leagues this summer.

*

I was reading an article from Richard Morin from the Arizona Republic on the down year from Clayton Keller. There was a lot of talk about how he had difficulty getting to the net, and how the good teams get to the net to create chances.

So, I looked into that:

Going over our numbers here at Dobber Hockey, Keller had 108 even strength shots on goal from within 30 feet of the net in 2018-19. That number was 113 in 2017-18.

Keller’s individual expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five this year was 0.62. Last year it was 0.63. The importance of that is that expected goal rates are heavily influenced by shot distance – guys like Brendan Gallagher and James van Riemsdyk always rate highly because of it.

His role on the PP changed from primarily a bumper/net front-type player in 2017-18 to a primarily wing role in 2018-19, so if he wasn’t getting to the net on the PP, it wasn’t his decision.

Of course, there’s a whole lot more to the story than just checking numbers on a couple of sites. He did have fewer shots from right in tight than last year but his rate of shots from medium-to-high danger areas was basically unchanged. I’m sure there are instances when the coaching staff wished he got to the net more and that would explain their comments. In reality, when looking at the season as a whole, it was more of the same from his rookie year.

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Keller won’t shoot seven percent next year like he did in this one.

*

We were guaranteed a third Game 7 of these playoffs as Carolina held down the fort in a 5-2 win over Washington in Game 6. After falling behind 2-1, Teuvo Teravainen scored early in the second period to tie the game up 2-2 with Jordan Staal scoring early in the third period to take the lead. Justin Williams salted it away with the fourth goal.

Alex Ovechkin was kicked out late in the game with a misconduct but it shouldn’t have any bearing on his availability for the next game.

There was a no-goal call due to intent to blow that may have cost the Caps a goal in the third period. Ovechkin jammed a puck that was under Mrazek's pad and he thought they scored. This was the play:

  "No goal" pic.twitter.com/XnbfzygDe3

— NBC Sports Capitals (@NBCSCapitals) April 23, 2019

  I don't understand the fervour, it seemed like a pretty cut-and-dry play. I guess everything is magnified in the playoffs.  

It was a great night for both Jaccob Slavin and Dougie Hamilton as they assisted on Warren Foegele’s goal in the first period, giving Slavin six points in the playoffs and five for Hamilton. The man named Dougie added an empty-net goal for his sixth point. The pairing played over half their shifts against Washington’s top line and just crushed them; Ovechkin-Backstrom-Wilson all had shot shares under 35 percent. Alex Ovechkin scored on a rush when they were on the ice but let’s be honest, you can only hold down one of the greatest ever for so long.

*

Dallas moved on to the second round thanks to a 2-1 overtime win in Game 6 Monday night. John Klingberg sealed the series on an odd-man rush off a nice find from Alex Radulov. The Stars had carried the play for most of the overtime period, and pretty much the second half of the game for that matter. It was a just reward for a team looking to earn a spot in the Conference Final for the first time in over a decade.

Ben Bishop, two days after his Vezina finalist announcement, saved 46 shots in the win. For the series, he had a .945 save percentage. It’s a fair to discuss things like Nashville’s abysmal power play, which was bad all year and went 0-15 in the playoffs, or their scoring depth, but not many teams will get past a goalie who manages a .945 over the course of a series.

Nashville’s third pair didn’t get much ice time, but I will say that Dante Fabbro seemed to get better each game. It’s hard to look good in a loss when you play 14 minutes on the third pair, but he seemed to outlet the puck well while holding is own in the zone. There is still a lot of work to be done here, obviously, and it was only a handful of games so beware confirmation bias.

The Stars now go to St. Louis to face the Blues in the second round.

        from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-jets-and-flames-post-knockout-keller-playoff-hockey-april-23/

[thrashermaxey]

Wild West: Top Western Conference Left Wings 2018-19

  We are going to start this offseason by doing a quick recap and reviewing some top performers at each position in the West. We will touch on what happened to make their seasons so successful and I will give a few thoughts on if I think it is going to be sustainable.

  For this series we are going to be using the Fantasy Hockey Geek ranking tool to get a ranking that combines all of a player’s stats for the searched categories. For the purposes of this series, the ranks are based on a 12 team, head-to-head league, using the categories of goals, assists, power play points, shots, hits and blocks for forwards/defensemen and wins, saves, save percentage and goals against average for goalies. Player eligibility for this series is based on Yahoo, and any draft ranks are based on average draft positions compiled from Yahoo, ESPN and CBS by FantasyPros.

  This week, left wings.

  Top 3:

  3. Evander Kane (66)

  After a big end of the season in 2017-18 playing with Joe Pavelski, Evander Kane put together his strongest season to date with the Sharks in 2018-19, ranking 66th overall and third among left wings. He did not continue to play with Pavelski, and even saw what might have been third line deployment at times, but it certainly helped to get some time on ice with a breaking out Tomas Hertl and Timo Meier. He put up a career high in goals (30), power play points (11), and hits (173) and his second highest career numbers in assists (26),total points (56), and point pace (61). Kane also saw his the highest shooting percentage of his career (11.2%).

  Kane was undoubtedly on the best team he has ever played for which certainly helped his overall numbers, but his deployment was actually a bit worse than his previous seasons. He lost almost a minute on time on ice from 2017-18 and is down almost two and a half minutes from his first season in Buffalo. The worse news is almost all of that time lost is on the power play. Even with that time lost though he skated for almost 18.5 minutes a night on average with about two minutes on the power play. The sharks were deep enough this season that his most common linemates were still Joonas Donskoi and Tomas Hertl at evens and Timo Meier and Joe Thornton on the power play. It also helped that for much of the season either Brent Burns or Erik Karlsson was on the ice pretty much at all times. Because the Sharks were so deep, Kane’s IPP was actually his lowest in four seasons at 63%.

  A big reason that Kanes makes the top three is the addition of hits to his solid (if not spectacular) offensive performance. He has historically been successful in this category so it looks as though it is sustainable. The question really has to come with the 30 goals he put up for the first time. Unfortunately his career high goals number did not come with a career high in shots. In fact he has his lowest shot pace in four seasons. Now that shot pace was still good for higher then 3.5 shots per game, but Kane is not a high percentage shooter so his 11.2% is a bit higher than the 9.2% he averaged over the prior three years. There are also some question marks when it comes to the Sharks lineup in general. What will happen to Erik Karlsson, Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski, and Gustav Nyquist? Are Hertl’s and Meier’s breakouts for real? Kane’s linemates and deployment could be dramatically altered depending on where everyone ends up signing.

  The moral of this story comes down to Kane had a great season, playing on a great offensive team, with a series of linemates who had breakouts of their own. The shots, hits and a 55 point pace seem like a solid expectation for Kane’s 2019-20 season, beyond that though it all comes down to deployment and the team that surrounds him.

  2. Johnny Gaudreau (54)

In 2017-18 Gaudreau missed out on the top three ranking because he doesn’t really contribute in hits and blocks. In 2018-19 he rectified the problem (not by hitting or blocking) by hitting a career high of 99 points. Unsurprisingly then, Gaudreau saw career highs in goals (36), assists (63), power play points (27), and shots (245). All in all it was an excellent season for Gaudreau, and more broadly for that Flames top line.

  It is great to see a career high in goals accompanied by a career high in shots, but unfortunately it is still accompanied by a career high shooting percentage (14.7%). 14.7% is not a terribly high shooting percentage for a some players, but Gaudreau has typically been a lower percentage shooter, averaging 11.4% over the three season prior to this one. If he had hit that shooting percentage this season, he would have had eight fewer goals. Some of his other stats raise questions marks as well. He did see an additional 30 seconds or so a game, but his power play time did not improve overall. His team 5-on-5 shooting percentage is also high (10.58%) where he had been hovering around 9% (definitely average) for the last three years.

  It seems clear that something about this season made for better scoring across the board. His percentages and underlying numbers seems to indicate he performed better than maybe he should have, which might indicate a regression is coming, or it could indicate something about his situation changed. What might have changed? Well Elias Lindholm joined the team and Gaudreau’s line. Lindholm was clearly a much better fit than Michael Ferland in that spot and Gaudreau, Lindholm, and Sean Monahan all had career years together. As exciting as Gaudeau was this season I have question marks about that line repeating their success in 2019-20. That coupled with those high percentage numbers will make me a little cautious at the draft table in 2019-10. To be clear, point-per game is definitely happening, I am just learning more toward a 90 point pace than a 100.

  1.  Gabriel Landeskog (24)

The only repeat offender on this list from 2017-18, Landeskog took his 2017-18 season and built on it. His goals (34), assists (41), points (75), point pace (1.03 pts/g), shots (243), and power play points (26) were all career highs, eclipsing many of the career highs he set in 2017-18.

  Like with Gaudreau we see a career high in goals, accompanied with a career high in shots. His shooting percentage is still a touch high (14%), but he still has a 13.5% plus shooting percentage in two of his last three seasons. Unlike with Gaudreau, his increases in power play points and shots come with increases in power play time (up to over four minutes per game) and in time on ice (over 21 minutes a game). Those increases make the production seem more sustainable, as does his 5-on-5 shooting percentage, which was 8.58%, significantly normal.

  Landeskog spent most of his ice time with Mikko Rantanen and Nathan MacKinnon both at even strength and on the power play. It was worth paying attention to as Colorado split up the trio several times throughout the year to try and spread the offense, but at the end of the day the juggling did not seem to impact him as Landeskog stuck with either MacKinnon or Rantanen and had a career year.

  If your league doesn’t value hits, then you clearly should be drafting Gaudreau before Landeskog, but if hits are included, I love what Landeskog has been doing. He provides a ton of value across the board and as long as he is getting some time with Mackinnon or Rantanen it looks like he can keep it up. Maybe that shooting percentage drops a bit and he misses out on a few goals, or on a few power play points but he appears to be completely worth the cost at this point.

  Bubble Players (just missed a top ranking):

Matthew Tkachuk (68) had a career season in every single category. He saw increases in deployment both at even strength and on the power play and totaled 77 points in 80 games. His personal shooting percentage was a touch high, but as a long as he keeps getting that top deployment, particularly on the power play, it looks like he can keep up 2018-19’s pace. 

  Notable Absences:

Jamie Benn (102), and Jonathan Marchessault (92), 2017-18’s top two left wings certainly fell off the pace in 2018-19. Marchessault actually kept more value falling to only the 6th most valuable left wing, but Benn fell down to 10th. Marchessault had a bit of regression coming after Vegas’ wild inaugural season, but not this much. It looks like his 58 point season could be due for some positive regression in 2019-20. Benn is a slightly more complicated story. His 53 point season actually looks a lot more sustainable than we might like as his dip in point production comes with a loss of time on ice, power play time, and shots. He still should rebound, but without changes in deployment, he might be short of the point per game player he used to be.

  Surprising Value:

  Drafted an average of 216th overall (reminder: a standard 12 team, 16 player league drafts 192 players), Timo Meier provided a ton of value. He finished the season as the 96th ranked player, and 9th ranked left wing. Benn, who ranked just behind him as the 10th ranked wing was drafted 21st overall. Meier almost doubled his point production from 2017-18. He saw a great increase in deployment, but there are some warning signs. He has had a short career thus far, so we only have a small size to compare to, but it is possible we see a bit of a regression from Meier in 2019-20.

  Thanks for reading. Next week, centermen.

    from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/the-wild-west/wild-west-top-western-conference-left-wings-2018-19/

[thrashermaxey]

Top 10 Bounce-Back Candidates…That Didn’t (2018-19)

  Every year during fantasy drafts and trade negotiations, bounce-back candidates are one of the most popular types of players to focus on.

We all like a good rebound story. These are players coming off a down year and we are expecting things to go back to the good old days. You figure you can draft them a little later or buy them at a low price during trade negotiations.

While many of them do rebound (think Carey Price, Matt Duchene, Brandon Saad and Robin Lehner this year), often times they also fail to do so. While much of the focus is on the success stories, it’s important to pay attention to those who don’t succeed as it means a player has had back-to-back underwhelming seasons. Often times it’s debatable if these guys are even keepers anymore in most fantasy leagues.

Below are 10 players who were supposed to bounce back this season, but didn’t. (Stick tap to MarkRM16 for suggesting this column idea a couple of weeks back.

  10. Jason Spezza

I have to admit I was a big believer that Spezza was going to have a small rebound season. His first three years in Dallas was decent enough, with two 60-point seasons and an average of 58 points per campaign. Then in 2017-18, Spezza posted only 26 points as he was often stuck on the third line and the second power-play unit. The hope for a rebound came last summer from new Dallas coach Jim Montgomery, who said he wanted to get Spezza more time on the top power-play unit and to be a big part of a balanced scoring attack. Neither of those things happened as the Stars leaned heavily on the top line, Spezza stayed where he was in the lineup and wound up with 27 points.

  9. Kevin Shattenkirk

There wasn’t much to like about Shattenkirk’s 2017-18 season. After signing a big-money contract, Shattenkirk spent almost half the season on the IR. Even though he posted only 23 points (tied for the lowest of his career), he still had a 41-point pace. That led to many believing he was a top candidate for a bounce-back year. Instead, he was even worse, putting up 28 points in 73 games (a 31-point pace). He was even a healthy scratch early in the year and saw his ice time and power-play time on ice drop.

  8. Henrik Lundqvist

Lundqvist’s fantasy career is slowly coming to an end. Just look at his numbers the last five years.

2014-15: 30 wins (in 46 games), 2.25 GAA, .922 SV %, five shutouts

2015-16:  35 wins, 2.48 GAA, .920 SV %, four shutouts

2016-17: 31 wins, 2.75 GAA, .910 SV %, three shutouts

2017-18: 26 wins, 2.98 GAA, .915 SV %, two shutouts

2018-19: 18 wins, 3.07 GAA, .907 SV %, zero shutouts

The 37-year-old has seen a decline every season. He’s been a popular pick for a bounce-back season for a few years now, but it’s time to face the facts that you can no longer count on him for fantasy hockey.

  7. Ondrej Palat

His injuries make his decline seem more rapid than it is, but those injuries are also what makes him a tough player to keep. One-third of the original triplets line in Tampa, Palat has missed an average of 18 games a season over the last four years. Palat’s numbers dropped to 35 points in 2017-18, but many thought he could at least be a 55-point player again if he could stay healthy. He couldn’t, and he wasn’t, finishing with 34 points in 64 games (a 44-point pace). The biggest reason for concern? His ice time was under 15 minutes this season, more than four minutes less per game than he averaged in 2016-17, as he is being usurped in the lineup by younger, better players.

  6. Wayne Simmonds

When it comes to power forwards, there comes a time when their production falls off a cliff, usually around the age of 30. It’s not a slow decline either, but a dramatic drop. Simmonds turned 30 last August, so maybe his sudden drop in production shouldn’t have been that surprising. From 2013-14 to 2016-17, Simmonds averaged 30 goals and 56 points. In the past two years, he’s averaged 21 goals and 38 points. Going to a new team this offseason will renew interest in him, but don’t be fooled. 

  5. Oscar Klefbom

It’s time to admit that Klefbom will never be a great fantasy option. To start, it feels like he spends more time on the IR than on the ice and he’s had one season with more than 30 points. After posting 21 points in 2017-18, Klefbom was on many lists as a bounce-back candidate. He managed to up that all the way to 28 points this season, despite leading the team in power-play minutes. He’s one Evan Bouchard call-up away from losing that plum spot and being fantasy irrelevant.

  4. Alexander Wennberg

Big things were expected from Wennberg as early as two years ago. He had increased his scoring, points-per-game, ice time and power-play time every year for the first three years of his career, culminating in a 59-point season in 2016-17. Then he dropped to 35 points the following season. Many were expecting a big bounce-back this year based on his early-career trajectory, but that rebound never occurred. Instead, he dropped even further to 25 points, his lowest since his rookie season. He’s only 24 years old, so it’s tough to want to give up on him, but his time on ice is the lowest it’s ever been and he doesn’t shoot enough (just 64 shots this season).

  3. Jake Allen

Maybe it’s time for the Blues to realize Allen will never be a number one goalie as every year he is outplayed by the backup. Sticking with Allen cost the Blues a playoff spot in 2017-18 and almost cost them one this year (thanks to a 19-7-8 record with a 2.83 GAA and a .905 SV %), until they realized Jordan Binnington was a much better option. A battle between the two netminders may become moot depending on how far the Blues go in the postseason, but for now, stay far away from Allen.

  2. Cam Talbot

In both of my one-year fantasy leagues last summer, I decided to wait on drafting goalies. Instead of taking Andrei Vasilevskiy, Connor Hellebuyck, or Frederik Andersen early, I waited until at least the sixth rounds and took mid-tier goalies hoping for a rebound season. That’s how I ended up with Talbot in both of my leagues (I also had Brian Elliott and Jake Allen in one league, and Carey Price and Scott Darling in the other, so let’s just say I lost all my goalie categories in all of my leagues). My theory on Talbot was that he was going to play at least 65 games on an improved Oilers team, meaning wins and saves should have been guaranteed. Obviously, none of that happened. He struggled all season, lost his starter’s job in Edmonton and was traded to Philadelphia.

  1. Max Pacioretty

By the summer of 2017, no player was more consistent than Pacioretty as you could count on 30 goals and 60 points from him every year. Then 2017-18 happened, and there were plenty of off-ice distractions (trade rumours while playing for one of the worst teams in the league will have that effect on some people). He wound up with 17 goals and 37 points. A trade to Vegas seemed promising, and he was mentioned in every story about top bounce-back candidates, but he finished with 22 goals and 40 points this year. Not a great improvement. He’s having an excellent playoff, so interest is starting to rebound. If I was a MaxPac owner, I’d be selling him hard with this playoff run.

  from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/fantasy-hockey-top-10/top-10-bounce-back-candidates-that-didnt-2018-19/

[thrashermaxey]

Fantasy Hockey Podcast: In The Midnight Grubauer

Don't get upset: it's a the first summer spring series episode of the Keeping Karlsson Fantasy Hockey Podcast!

Unlike the Lightning, Penguins, Flames and Jets, Elan and Brian come through with the goods as they review and construe the surprising results pouring in from the first round of the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs so far. They have a look at both sides of the upsets to see which players might be most responsible, and which teams may have deserved better fates.

Then, Jade and Lewis of @avgtimeonice don their best red carpet attire to present the Keeping Karlsson Ultimate Patron Fantasy League Year End Awards, aka the KKUPYs, to recognize the biggest splashes and crashes that happened in the KKUPFL this year.

The episode wraps with our belated tributes to those who won and lost in the final weeks of the 2018-19 Fantasy Hockey Season.

Players discussed on this episode include Mike Smith, Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Tyson Barrie, Sam Girard, Philipp Grubauer, Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Matt Duchene, Sergei Bobrovsky, Artemi Panarin, Cam Atkinson, Jordan Eberle, Robin Lehner, Matt Murray, Evgeni Malkin, Alex DeBrincat, Martin Jones, Patrik Laine, Jordan Binnington, Jake Allen, Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty, Paul Stastny, Shea Theodore and more. 

* * *

Like what you hear? Support us by telling a friend, subscribing to and reviewing Keeping Karlsson on iTunes, and following us on Twitter (@keepingkarlsson). 

  Even better, support us by becoming a patron of Keeping Karlsson! Patrons support future episodes of the show and get all kinds of perks in return, like an invite to the Keeping Karlsson Ultimate Patron Fantasy League (aka the KKUPFL), monthly Patroncasts, access to the secret patrons-only Facebook group, and weekly show scripts. 

  The Keeping Karlsson Fantasy Hockey Podcast is proudly presented by DobberHockey, and powered by our patrons.

  Thanks for listening!

  {source}<iframe title="No. 330 – In The Midnight Grubauer" src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/c6xvj-aebd20?from=site&vjs=1&skin=1&fonts=Helvetica&auto=0&download=1" height="315" width="100%" style="border: none;" scrolling="no" data-name="pb-iframe-player"></iframe>{/source}

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/brian-kom/fantasy-hockey-podcast-in-the-midnight-grubauer/

[thrashermaxey]

Ramblings: Thoughts on Murray, Jones, Marner, Byfuglien, Ehlers, some post-mortems and more (Apr 22)

Ramblings: Thoughts on Murray, Jones, Marner, Byfuglien, Ehlers, some post-mortems and more (Apr 22)

***

Four teams were eliminated last week. Here are my thoughts on those teams, the players, and what the future holds…

Winnipeg Jets

First, kudos to Dustin Byfuglien, who reached deep down and pulled out some extra career mojo. He struggled with injuries all year and as a 34-year-old it has to be concerning. But production-wise, he’s been right there. His 0.74 points/gp this year was his best in seven seasons. He had eight points in six playoff games and was Winnipeg’s top player. His production next year will still be stellar, though I would not count on more than 65 games.

Disappointment of the first round for the Jets has to be Nik Ehlers, who went pointless. He actually has zero goals in 21 career playoff games. The entire campaign for Ehlers – his fourth, by the way – was a write-off thanks to a shoulder injury. I consider him a buy-low this summer and consider next year his true (potential) breakout season. Although I would stay away from him in next year’s playoff pool.

Was also disappointed in Jacob Trouba and Josh Morrissey – just one assist each in the six games. It’s as if they can’t thrive at the same time as Big Buff. If the Jets ever get all three of them going and divide the PP time evenly, the team would be hard to stop.

As a Patrik Laine owner in one of my leagues, I was happy to see him regain his mojo in the postseason. He still wasn’t quite the game-breaker he could be on a nightly basis, but definitely the one game he was massive. It’s enough to set my mind at ease that he’ll be fine. He has to be disgusted with his 50-point season and early playoff exit. If that doesn’t motivate him to push hard this summer, nothing will.

Of the eliminated teams, Winnipeg is in the best cap shape, looking at over $25 million in cap space, depending on where the cap is set. That’s a lot of flexibility even if they do have to fill a dozen roster spots with it.

I think we knew in our bones that this wouldn’t be Winnipeg’s year. We just didn’t have the confidence in this team that we had a year ago. All season long there were problems with consistency and goaltender Connor Hellebuyck never really found his mojo. But I believe in this team – the depth, the cap situation, and the goaltender. I think this season was just a learning experience and I am bullish on the Jets for 2019-20.

*

Calgary Flames

I was disappointed in the way Elias Lindholm had such a nosedive down the stretch and then in the postseason. He had nine points in the final 21 games of the campaign, giving him 11 points in the last 26 games that he played in all. This is a guy who finished with 78. On one hand, at 24 years of age he is still a player on the rise, not even at his prime yet. On the other hand, it’s as if opponents had him figured out. He was even removed from the big line later in the playoff series against St. Louis. I think his spot on that line is cemented, but I don’t believe he will repeat his 78-point season. I think he’ll get back there again in two or three years, but next year will be a small regression. And pay special attention to any signs of slowing down in the second half.

I was disappointed in the way Bill Peters switched things up when the playoffs started. The Flames went into the postseason on a roll and all of their lines were doing great. Auston Czarnik had 12 points in his last 25 games with minimal ice time. That’s great depth production, but he didn’t get a sniff of playoff time until Game 5 when he saw five minutes of action. I would have also had more patience with the 3M line and kept them together to the end. I understand swapping out Lindholm for Sam Bennett, who was their playoffs top scorer, but the 3M line to me needed another chance.

I like what I am seeing in rookie defenseman Rasmus Andersson. He had 15 of his 19 points in the second half, and he added two in five playoff games. His PP ice time was 2:39 per game in the postseason and I wonder if he will leapfrog TJ Brodie on the PP depth chart next season. At the very least he will take a step in that direction.

This summer the Flames will have about $12 million cap space depending on where the new cap will be. This will be needed to sign Matthew Tkachuk (at least $9 million, in my opinion, or close enough to it), Sam Bennett ($4 or $5?), Andrew Mangiapane ($2 million or more?). This team will need entry-level deals on the roster, meaning Juuso Valimaki will make the team, and likely Dillon Dube as well. Trading Czarnik and filling that spot with a minimum-salary earner would save another half million. A Czarnik trade to the right team would put him back on my radar. Trading Michael Frolik (one more year at $4.3 million) will help. But bottom line is they have to be kicking themselves over and over again for that James Neal signing – he has four more years at $5.75 million and he was scratched last game when they absolutely needed their best players in the game. Which means they don’t consider him one of their 23 best players.

*

Pittsburgh Penguins

During the last game I started thinking long and hard about the following. Is it time to do a mini-retool? The Pens can keep pushing with the Sidney Crosby – Evgeni Malkin duo and over the next three years perhaps they can win one more Cup with some lucky match-ups and timely hot streaks. Or they could trade Malkin, who will be 33 in the fall, and free up $9.5 million in cap space each of the next three years and likely bring in a tidy return. Instead of having a decent chance for the next three years, perhaps this would mean having one tough year, and then four or five years of competing. The Penguins have zero cap space this summer, unless the cap rises by a couple million bucks. But how on earth can they re-sign Zach Aston-Reese and Marcus Pettersson? A lot of ugly contracts on the books right now (Erik Gudbranson $4 million next two years, Jack Johnson $3.25 million next four years, and even Patric Hornqvist at $5.3 million next four years – he’s 32 years old). A full-blown rebuild will happen in two years if they don’t do a minor re-tool this summer, and I think a re-tool would need to involve a Malkin trade. But they’d have to be creative.

The Penguins were beat by a hot goalie and a sound system. Unlike with Tampa (below), I don’t put as much onus on the players. We can’t let them completely off the hook – Crosby and Jake Guentzel getting just one point is inexcusable, but in a four-game sweep against a red-hot goaltender this stuff happens. The real concern for Pittsburgh fans is that it’s a key season lost, when they are running out of key seasons (“key season” defined here as prime Malkin – Crosby years).

The Pens made an interesting signing on the weekend. Teams only get 50 contracts so using one on an undrafted European always catches my attention. And with the cap crunch this is especially true because they need as many minimum-salaried players as possible. Oula Palve is a 27-year-old from Finland who led his TPS team in scoring with 51 points in 53 games and he finished seventh in Liiga scoring. He is on Team Finland at the Worlds, but has not gotten into a game yet.

*

Tampa Bay Lightning

I think the most common explanation for this shocker is the right one – TBL coasted over the final month of the season and without that desperation game in March or April, they had trouble finding that fortitude when it was needed. Yes, preparation is on the coach, but these are professional players and they shouldn’t be left off the hook. That being said, while they did lose to a team that they beat by 30 points in the regular season, Columbus was not 30 points worse than them. From mid-March onward, their actual playoff roster started to mesh. The Blue Jackets added Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel, but as I noted last week they also added a player who has been much better than Dzingel over the past two months: Oliver Bjorkstrand. Last week I pointed out that Bjorkstrand scored at a 36-goal pace over his last 40 regular season and playoff games, and since he scored last game that actually gives him 19 goals in his last 41 games (so a 38-goal pace, after half a season).

What let the team down was the lack of leadership, desperation and clutch play of the forwards. With no exceptions. Erik Cernak, a rookie defenseman who wasn’t even in the league to start the season, led this team in playoff scoring with three points! Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Braden Point, JT Miller and the so-called playoff-clutch player Tyler Johnson all combined for two goals. They combined for 169 in the regular season. This team has a good, deep organization with what looks to be maybe $8 million in cap space this summer. Braden Point should get at least $10 million this summer (it would be far more, but since Kucherov recently signed for $9.5 I can’t see Point going too much higher). As of today, this team doesn’t have near the cap room. And with four UFA defensemen to sign or replace, and a couple of depth forwards to sign, that’s probably $5 or $6 million used up right there. The Lightning will probably move Alex Killorn, Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat or JT Miller – and likely two of those four. This would just mean an expanded role for Anthony Cirelli, Yanni Gourde and Mathieu Joseph, with a couple of kids moving up into the vacated depth roles. The conveyor belt that Steve Yzerman left behind can run successfully through this difficult summer – but won’t be able to sustain things if this happens again.

Alex Barre-Boulet is my pick to make the jump next year, joining a long list of smaller players (5-10, 170) that TB has brought along slowly, such as Tyler Johnson, Jonathan Marchessault and Yanni Gourde.

***

I heard on FAN590’s Ben Ennis show, JD Bunkis (I think it was him) said that Tampa Bay could not be excused for having two injured defensemen because “Columbus was without their best defenseman – Ryan Murray”. I normally wouldn’t choose this forum to argue that point, but then he was so insistent on this as fact that he repeated it four or five different times during the segment. And since I can’t raise an argument with a guy talking through my car speaker, I’ll do it here… because I can. It is a fact that Murray has had an amazing rebound season and let’s be honest it could be considered the first and only “good” season of his career. But Seth Jones is by far and away the best and most important defenseman on this team. Even if Murray could play 80 games, which he can’t – so why count on him as your “best” – he isn’t as strong as Jones in, well, most categories. Look at the player comparison tool of the two players here. Hits, BLKS, points, IPP, SOG are no contest, and even PKTOI is similar.

Anyway, Murray is a great No.4 or even a No.3 defenseman and good for 60 games per year, and as long as you don’t expect more than that, I think any team would be very happy with him. But Columbus is quite familiar with playing Murray-less games, certainly more familiar than Tampa Bay is in playing Hedman-less or Stralman-less games. So yes indeed Tampa Bay can use these blue-line injuries as a third explanation (read: excuse) on top of the two I already provided.

*

Tough to be a hockey fan in Canada as we watch our best Stanley Cup Playoffs representation in years go down the tubes in an awful hurry. Not in terms of bulk (i.e. just three teams made it), but in terms of true Cup contention. The Flames looked great and were my pick to come out of the West. The Jets have a bright future and if they could put it all together they would have done damage. The Leafs have a chance to deep now that Tampa Bay is out of the mix, but just when they have Boston on the ropes they let them crawl back.

I really liked Morgan Rielly’s game, both Friday and Sunday. It was a high-risk style but very entertaining. It cost the Leafs in giving the Bruins several huge chances, but I think it created more for the Leafs than it hurt and I’ll take that trade. He seemed to really take control, almost as if he felt responsible for Toronto’s entire offense.

Speaking of “entire offense”, how about Brad Marchand? Nine points in six games leads the Bruins. He’s had two three-point games in the last three, both were Boston wins. The Leafs are doing a fine job of shutting down David Pastrnak and Patrice Bergeron (four points in six games is probably the best you’re gonna do with those guys), but stifling Marchand will be key for Game 7 Tuesday. Also, the sky is blue and grass is green.

Mitch Marner had two points in Game 1 and looked as though he and John Tavares will just run rampant over the Bruins from that point onward. But Marner has just two points in five games since then as the Bruins have been effective in shutting him down. He has just one SOG in the last three games combined. The last time he was held to one shot over a three-game span was November 16-20, 2017.

*

Nothing to say about the Vegas – San Jose game as only three goals were scored and it went to double-overtime. I watched it, but nothing jumped out at me other than the surprise of a shorthanded goal being the game winner. It was the first time in NHL history that a multi-OT game was decided by a shorthanded goal.

With a 2OT game it’s always fun to look through the TOI totals of the players. Vegas managed to still keep their fourth line at 12 minutes of ice time, while William Karlsson was the only forward to reach 30 minutes at 30:25.

The Sharks kept things a little more balanced, with their fourth line hovering around 16 minutes (including Gustav Nyquist a forwards-low 15:38). Brent Burns led all players with 42:32 of ice time, as you would expect. The Sharks were outshot 59-29 so of course they were going to win the game, that always seems to be the way. And I trash on Martin Jones so much in this space that it’s only fair that I give him his props this week. An amazing performance that makes me wonder why he doesn’t do that more often.

{youtube}HkM4xQ7ZBEE{/youtube}

*

See you next Monday.

    from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-thoughts-on-murray-jones-marner-byfuglien-ehlers-some-post-mortems-and-more-apr-22/

[thrashermaxey]

21 Fantasy Hockey Rambles

Every Sunday, we'll share 21 Fantasy Rambles – formerly 20 Fantasy Thoughts – from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week's ‘Daily Ramblings’.

Writers: Michael Clifford, Ian Gooding, Cam Robinson, and Dobber

  1. Blue Jackets’ Matt Duchene had a fantastic Round 1 series with seven points in four games. Aside from the points, he led the team in adjusted shot share at five-on-five and Columbus outscored Tampa Bay 4-1 when he was on the ice at five-on-five.

Duchene didn’t do a whole lot in the regular season post-deadline but his play in the first round made his acquisition completely worth it. What a marvelous series. (apr18)

  2. On the topic of Duchene pulling through, how about Max Pacioretty and Jordan Eberle? Remember when those two were players a franchise couldn’t rely upon for big performances? Pacioretty has 10 points in five games with the Sharks on the verge of elimination Sunday, while Eberle had four goals and six points in the four-game sweep of the Penguins. Their respective performances are just a reminder to casual hockey fans that they’re very good players. (apr18)

  3. Antti Raanta and Darcy Kuemper: which goalie is the sleeper next year?

How far does Raanta’s injury and uncertainty surrounding his grip on the starting role push down his ADP? Does Kuemper’s great season and potential push for the top job drive up his ADP? Will these two be drafted in relatively the same tier as, say, Matt Murray and Marc-Andre Fleury were a few years ago?

I am fascinated to see where these guys are valued by the market, especially if the Coyotes make some moves this offseason either in the trade or free agency markets. Or both. (apr16)

  4. Kyle Connor is the least talked about upcoming RFA this summer. People are whispering about offer sheets all over the place but the Winnipeg cap, coupled with his strong production, may lead to some interesting negotiations. (apr17)

  5. This won’t be an easy offseason for the Jets, who will have as many as 15 pending free agents to sort out. For example, Connor and Patrik Laine will need contracts, which means that the Jets might not be able to afford UFAs Kevin Hayes and Brandon Tanev.

Then there’s the defense. Have Jacob Trouba and Tyler Myers both played their last games as Jets? Beyond pillars Dustin Byfuglien and Josh Morrissey, this group could look very different. At least fantasy owners should finally be able to see Sami Niku on the Jets for a full season.

Then you also have to wonder whether coach Paul Maurice’s job is safe after what appeared to be a missed opportunity. Needless to say, they’ll be lots of fantasy implications to break down with this team this offseason. (apr21)

  6. The Blue Jackets’ four-game sweep of the Lightning has easily been the surprise story of the NHL playoffs so far. The Islanders’ four-game sweep of the Penguins will come in as a not-too-distant second in that department. And there’s the Flames, out in five against the Avs, as well. That isn’t good news if you’d built your fantasy playoff roster around the likes of Nikita Kucherov and Sidney Crosby.

There’s the old expression “when you lose, don’t lose the lesson.” So, can fantasy owners learn anything from these surprise quick exits of the Lightning and Penguins, two teams that have been on the short list of Stanley Cup contenders over the last few years? Follow this link for at least three takeaways about the topic. (apr20)

  7. Rookie Alexandre Texier’s developmental arc has been something to marvel. As the youngest player in the crop, he was drafted halfway through the second round in 2017 out the top league in France. All he’s done since is make the Columbus scouting staff look like geniuses.

He had a very strong year in the Finnish Liiga as an 18-year-old in 2017-18. This past season, his 41 points in 55 contests were the second most by a U20 player. He came over to the American League to close out the campaign and scored five goals and seven points in as many games. That earned him the call to the big club and I’m guessing he won’t be heading down any time soon.

Texier will be an extremely interesting player to rank heading into fantasy hockey drafts next season. Keeper leagues need to be all over this guy, but his original draft slot coupled with a bit of no-name vibe could push him into sleeper territory. That is, of course, if he doesn’t go off this postseason.

The 19-year-old has been skating on a line with Nick Foligno and Josh Anderson at even-strength and seeing some second unit power play deployment. With Artemi Panarin almost assuredly out the door this summer, a left-wing spot in the top-six will be wide open. If the Blue Jackets don’t fill that hole with a big fish (a big if), then I like Texier to put his name on it. (apr17)

  8. Current Red Wings coach Jeff Blashill was signed to a two-year extension earlier this month, so his job for at least next season is secure. However, I’d think that new GM Steve Yzerman would immediately raise the bar for a former contender that has now missed the playoffs for three consecutive seasons.

The Wings have some nice pieces centering around Dylan Larkin, but Stevie Y will need to add more in the way of draft picks. With some cap space, Yzerman could even dip into the free agent pool as early as this summer. Optimism abound in the Motor City.

For a more detailed analysis of the Yzerman hire, see Mike Clifford’s Fantasy Take. (apr20)

  9. Your Vezina Trophy finalists were announced on Saturday and they are Ben Bishop, Robin Lehner and Andrei Vasilevskiy. Bishop led the NHL with a .934 SV% and trailed only half-season starter Jordan Binnington with a 1.98 GAA.

In spite of those impressive ratios, you know that Vasilevskiy will receive a lot of first-place votes because he led the league with 39 wins, which had a lot to do with the team in front of him.

Hockey media hasn’t paid enough attention to Bishop’s season, perhaps because he plays in a non-traditional hockey market for a team that squeaked into the playoffs. Because of their goaltender, the Stars might be better than we think as they are on the verge of upsetting Nashville. (apr21)

  10. James Neal was a healthy scratch for Game 5. As you might expect, he had no points in the previous four games. Neal has quite simply been a bust for the Flames since signing a five-year contract worth $5.75 million per season last summer. His 19 points in 63 games is his lowest point total in his 11-year NHL career and he doesn’t seem to fit into the Flames’ younger core going forward. Hopefully, you didn’t draft him hoping he’d play on the Flames’ top line. We could now be seeing why Nashville left him unprotected in the expansion draft.

  11. The Flames have a major decision coming up with respect to their goaltending. The team’s ousting is by no means entirely on Mike Smith (his 188 saves were lead all playoff goalies at the time), but he was easily considered the biggest question mark for the Flames entering the series.

You’d have to think that the 37-year-old Smith won’t be returning and that the Flames would instead turn to a tandem with RFA David Rittich and a goalie that they find as a UFA (maybe they circle back to Smith?) There doesn’t appear to be anything waiting in the system, as the numbers for both Jon Gillies and Tyler Parsons don’t suggest that they’re NHL-ready. Maybe a trade? (apr20)

  12. The metrics from Puck IQ don’t paint a very flattering picture of Drew Doughty’s 2018-19 season.

Was it his defense partner? That’s very possible, considering how much better Doughty has fared over the last two years when not playing with Derek Forbort. Was it the coaching staff and their systems? It may be, and we’ll have a better idea of this now that Todd McLellan is behind the bench. Was it just an off year? I don’t want to dismiss that, either.

I’m pretty comfortable saying that Doughty going from playing with Jake Muzzin to playing with Forbort had a massive impact on his performance. But does he have a better partner next year? We’ll see. (apr19)

  13. As when all teams get eliminated from playoffs, we find out about all the injuries players were going through. Pittsburgh’s locker clean-out brought us that as Jared McCann informed us he was playing through a separated shoulder. Also, Brian Dumoulin was playing through a torn posterior cruciate ligament (PCL) in his knee.

We also got more rumours that Evgeni Malkin will be traded, which seems to be almost a rite of passage whenever the Penguins don’t win the Cup. That always overlooks the fact that even if the Penguins wanted to trade Malkin, he has a no-move clause. Honestly, these types of rumors exhaust me because there is never is a kernel of truth and people are just looking for clicks. I guess that’s just the online world we live in now. (apr19)

  14. Tampa Bay also told us that Victor Hedman was not medically cleared for Games 3 and 4 after being so earlier in the series. It’s pretty obvious Hedman was nowhere near himself in Round 1. General manager Julien Brisebois also said there will be changes, but as I stated in my Ramblings yesterday, it’s just a reality of their cap situation rather than blowing up the roster.

Again, this roster is loaded top to bottom. It seems Brisebois understands that making significant changes would not be in the team’s best interest. It’s nice to see him take a measured approach.

BTW: Alex Killorn had a slight tear in his left knee’s MCL but will not require surgery. (apr19)

  15. It was a rebound, or career year, in many ways for Patrick Kane. Not something easily predicted for a 30-year old on what was thought to be a declining team.

An early lesson I learned in fantasy sports is to always bet on talent. Originally, for me, this applied to relief pitchers in fantasy baseball, but it’s very much true in almost any sport; elite talent usually finds a way to be productive almost regardless of circumstance. This certainly isn’t always the case (see: Kopitar, Anze) and I would bet on a modest step back for Kane in 2019-20. All the same, doubting elite talent is a bet I do not often make. (apr16)

  16. Something that caught my eye in Cam Metz’s Eastern Edge column a couple of days ago. He wrote about production against expected production from right wingers in the Atlantic division. One guy whose name stood out: Jason Pominville.

In 837 minutes of five-on-five ice time, Pominville posted 2.01 points per 60 minutes. Among the 252 forwards with at least 800 minutes, only 86 forwards managed at least two points per 60 minutes at 5v5. Pominville’s rate was the same as Brayden Schenn and Joe Pavelski. Pominville accomplished this despite playing only about a third of his ice time with Jack Eichel.

Going back three seasons, Pominville’s aggregate points/60 minutes at 5v5 (1.93) is the same as Gustav Nyquist, and higher than other wingers like Pavelski, Alex Radulov, Evander Kane, and Justin Williams.

Now, there is a lot more to hockey than just simply a points rate at five-on-five, but it’s clear that Pominville can still be productive in the NHL in a lesser role, and can do so even in a low-scoring environment. However, he turns 37 in November and it’s a wonder how much he does have left. I’ll be interested to see where he lands this summer. (apr18)

  17. I’ve written about this before, but the 40-goal scoring Jake Guentzel is one of the few players who I believe can consistently live in the mid-to-high teens for conversion rate. It doesn’t hurt that he’s locked to Sidney Crosby at even-strength. I imagine he’ll finally take a full-time spot on the top power-play unit next fall as well. (apr17)

  18. At the outset of the season, I envisioned a transition year for the Ducks. Guys like Ryan Kesler and Corey Perry would still be productive, but likely on the third or fourth lines, while guys like Sam Steel, Troy Terry, and Max Comtois would step up and lead the next wave of the Ducks core.

That wasn’t entirely the case.

Steel’s first foray in the NHL saw three points and 17 shots on goal through 13 games, averaging under 15 minutes a game. We have to think back to the state of the Ducks in October, though: Ryan Getzlaf missed two weeks due to injury, Ondrej Kase was not in the lineup due to his own injury, and Perry was injured as well. With guys like Rickard Rakell, Jakob Silfverberg, and Andrew Cogliano in the top-6, Steel was playing on the third and fourth line most nights with guys who were either unproven or without a lot of offensive skill. He wasn’t exactly put into a position to succeed, and he, Isac Lundestrom, and Terry were eventually sent down either for the rest of the season, or until after the trade deadline.

In all, the underlying numbers weren’t great for Steel but I wonder how much of that is Anaheim being a disaster most of the season. Those numbers were really bad in October, but after his recall at the end of February, he had very strong shot share numbers for the remaining games he dressed. It really was a tale of two seasons for Steel.

I’m still a believer in his talent and think he can be a good second-line center in the NHL. I thought that might start in 2018-19 but clearly he needed another year of to get up to speed. I think my mistake was my own beliefs in a player’s potential clouded what I should have seen as a clear development year.  It’s a mistake I’m certain I’ll make again. (apr16)

  19. Well it’s done. A week ago I didn’t expect this to happen. Not even when I had my ‘interview’ with Nikita Gusev’s agent a couple of weeks ago. I thought this would come in the form of a signing in late June, or an announcement in August. But things have moved quickly over the last week and Vegas has actually signed Gusev to a one-year entry-level contract.

The 26-year-old has dominated the KHL – and the international stage – for a couple of years now, and he’s ready to step into the lineup right away. Not only that, but he is actually eligible to play, since he wasn’t signed as an unrestricted free agent. Whenever he does, he could have an Artemi Panarin-type of impact. Vegas already has their first two lines in stone (or ‘Stone’, if you will): (apr15)

  20. Gusev wasn’t the only Russian star to sign with an NHL playoff team. Columbus signed Vladislav Gavrikov, a defenseman who played with Gusev on SKA St. Petersburg. There were also questions as to whether or not Gavrikov would sign, too. Funny enough, the Jackets have two defensemen hurt and had to actually dress Adam Clendening in Games 3 and 4 of Round 1. Gavrikov is 23 and his offensive upside is minimal (mid-30s) but he’s close to a sure thing when it comes to making it into the NHL. At least, as much as one can be a sure thing. (apr15)

  21. In early December, I traded Vince Dunn for Nazem Kadri in my keeper league. At the time, I wanted the depth forward as it would keep me in the hunt. I also wanted a playoff guy and Kadri was a lock for the playoffs, whereas clearly Dunn and his St. Louis Blues were, uh…done. They were bottom dwellers at the time. And as a bonus, Kadri had a great second half last year and although that was due to playing with Mitch Marner (which wasn’t going to happen again this year), I figured there would still be an uptick.

Well, that entire transaction has derailed and I feel like I gave up a good quality young defenseman for nothing. With Kadri’s track record of dirty hits, he’s going to miss time and likely lots of it. So, as a playoff asset, he’s done. And he never had that second-half uptick so he really didn’t help the bottom of my roster very much, either. (apr15)

  Have a good week, folks!!

  from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/21-fantasy-hockey-rambles/21-fantasy-hockey-rambles-14/

[thrashermaxey]

Geek of the Week: An Ad-Nazem Review

This week we’re going to discuss Nazem Kadri.  We’ll avoid talking about the “remainder of the series” suspension until the end of the article.  And we won’t be looking at the actual incident that garnered him the suspension (enough has already been said about that). 

Instead we’re going to try to put emotions around the player aside (positive or negative) and focus on fantasy value moving forward. 

Similar to buying a good blue chip stock, we must always remember to look at the underlying quality of the company (or player) and pit that against a poor quarterly result or negative short-term news (like a suspension or unsustainably low statistics).  This is where we will find value and the edge most fantasy managers are looking for.

The first stat that really stood out for me when looking at Kadri this season was his shooting percentage.  He took 184 shots and only converted on 8.7 percent of them for 16 goals (an 82-game pace of 207 shots and 18 goals). 

Shots on goal were slighty down this year from the previous two, but nothing to be overly concerned about as he’s still taking more than 2.5 shots per game. 

The shooting percentage is another story altogether.  Over the past two seasons Kadri converted at a rate of 14.3 percent.  Kadri’s career regular season shooting percentage is 11.6 percent. 

Essentially, Kadri is a better scorer than he displayed this season and there is no reason to believe he won’t regress positively next year.  It’s relatively safe to put him in the 11-14 percent conversion range next season, and if he is a bit lucky he could shoot over 15 percent, which would easily put him over 30 goals again.

Kadri put up 28 assists this year and totaled 44 points.  He has seen a two-year decline in point production from his high of 61 in 2016-17. 

Kadri is generally good for at least a hit per game. As well, he showed his best-ever performance in the face-off circle winning 55 percent of his draws this season. So if your league counts faceoffs, he was a pleasant surprise percentage wise, although he took less face-offs than he normally does. This is likely due to the addition of John Tavares.

Kadri’s Individual Points Percentage (IPP) was a bit low this season at 61.1.  We should expect that to be closer to 70 next year, which should help his point production.

If you’re in a cap league, Kadri comes in at a very palatable $4.5 million hit through to the 2021-22 season.  That contract already looks great and should age exceptionally well as each year passes.

Despite Kadri’s inconsistency from last season to this season as well as the addition of Tavares to the lineup, Mike Babcock has been remarkably consistent with Kadri’s deployment.  He continued to average over 16 minutes per game this season (room to improve), with just over two of those minutes coming on the power play.  The previous two seasons, Kadri averaged about one shift more per game and almost 30 seconds less power-play time per game than he did this year. 

The Leafs’ power play is always something to keep an eye on as they have a lot of candidates for the top unit.  At times Babcock has gone with a 1a/1b philosophy and if he’s not on the 1a then Kadri is all but guaranteed to be on the 1b unit.  So a drop in power-play time shouldn’t be a huge concern despite the plethora of talented forwards in Toronto.

Using standard Yahoo Head-to-Head Points scoring (private leagues only) we can see where Kadri ranked this season using the Fantasy Hockey Geek tool:  

Rank

Player

GP

G

A

+/-

SOG

PPP

BKS

Fantasy

Points

306

Blake Coleman

77

22

14

-19

210

3

44

389

307

Nazem Kadri

74

14

28

-6

183

13

14

389

308

Jimmy Vesey

79

17

18

-5

151

4

33

341

Not to take anything away from Coleman and Vesey, but Kadri is a better overall player than both of them in almost every way, and next season he will play on a deeper and more productive team (likely with better linemates) than either of them.  This is not the statistical company we should expect Kadri to be keeping by the end of next season. 

Savvy fantasy general managers ought to be rooting for an average to below average playoff performance for Kadri should the Leafs get past the Bruins in Round 1.  If the Leafs blow their first-round lead (would that shock anyone at this stage given the history?) then the stock in Kadri will remain low and it is very likely to carry over into a lot of drafts next season.

It would be irresponsible not to factor in the potential for Kadri to get suspended again next year (or the season after).  There is definitely a Brad Marchand-ian feeling around him currently.  

Leading the league in headshot suspensions is not an admirable NHL record to hold, and it leads one to believe it’s only a matter of time until we see another offense. 

The unorthodox “remainder of series” suspension shouldn’t cloud anyone’s judgement here.  Look at it as a five (playoff) game suspension that in the regular season would roughly translate to a 10-game suspension. 

It shouldn’t surprise anyone if Kadri’s next suspension comes in around the 15-20 game mark (or 10ish playoff games), especially if we see another head shot.

Regardless of how you feel about Kadri, if we are to look at drafting him it would be reckless not to consider a potential future suspension.  How much of a consideration will vary between league setup, roster, and general manager risk tolerance level. 

As things stand currenlty expect Kadri to fall in a lot of drafts next year.  Taking emotions out of it and making decisions around players like Kadri in the mid-later rounds is what makes this a whole lot of fun.

Follow me on Twitter @Mike_Zacour

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/geek-of-the-week/geek-of-the-week-an-ad-nazem-review/

[thrashermaxey]

Ramblings: Power of the Schwartz, Jets’ Season Crashes (Apr 21)

There were three playoff games on Saturday, with one team facing elimination. Let’s see how things went down.

Stars/Predators

Alexander Radulov and Jason Dickinson each scored two goals in the Stars’ 5-3 win in Game 5. Radulov, who leads the Stars with four goals during the playoffs, took five shots from his usual spot on the top line with Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin. Benn chipped in three assists, while Seguin scored a goal and added an assist while firing eight shots.

Dickinson scored his first two goals of the playoffs while taking four shots on goal. Scoring beyond the first line has been a missing ingredient for the Stars all season, so the Dickinson – Roope Hintz – Mats Zuccarello unit has found its stride together at just the right time. Hintz scored two goals during Game 4, while Zuccarello has scored three goals of his own during this series.

For more on Dickinson and Hintz, check out the Dallas Stars page on Dobber Prospects.

Dickinson also succeeded in getting under the skin of the Predators in this game.  

One happy camper, scoring goals, drawing penalties — you name it! #GoStars pic.twitter.com/c3feXRu2Jl

— J.D. Burke (@JDylanBurke) April 20, 2019

Fresh off a Vezina Trophy nomination (more on this later), Ben Bishop stopped 30 of 33 shots in earning the win.

“Your best players need to be your best players” is a common theme throughout the playoffs. The Predators are down 3-2 in this series, and their leading goal scorer is Rocco Grimaldi. The 5’6” forward scored his third goal in his fourth game of the series after scoring just five in 53 regular-season games. Meanwhile, the Preds’ top line (Ryan Johansen, Filip Forsberg, Viktor Arvidsson) has combined for just two goals. Arvidsson, the Preds’ leading regular-season goal scorer, has failed playoff poolies so far with no points in this series. They’ll need to step up in Game 6 or they’ll be joining at least a couple of other division winners on the golf course.

Jets/Blues

It was the Jaden Schwartz show in Game 6, as the Blues’ winger recorded a natural hat trick in the Blues’ 3-2 win over Winnipeg. The Blues now advance to face the winner of the above Nashville/Dallas series. Dating back to Game 5, Schwartz has now scored each of the Blues’ last four goals, which is now a team-leading total for the playoffs. This after a regular season in which his production declined (just 11 goals and 36 points in 69 games) with a move off the top line and the first power-play unit (only 5 power-play points in 2018-19).

In the here and now, the decision to move Brayden Schenn off the Vladimir Tarasenko/Ryan O’Reilly unit and onto the Schwartz/Oskar Sundqvist unit during Game 5 has paid off in spades for Craig Berube, though. Expect that deployment to continue (with David Perron on the top line) when the Blues start their next series.

Jordan Binnington appeared to be on his way to an easy shutout, as the Jets could only muster six shots on goal after the first two periods. The Jets appeared to have nothing left after coughing up a two-goal lead in a demoralizing Game 5 defeat. Yet they made a late push with a Dustin Byfuglien goal with about eight minutes left, then a Bryan Little goal with 37 seconds left in the game. Blake Wheeler took an untimely double-minor for high sticking with just over two minutes to play, which made a comeback attempt seemingly impossible for the Jets.

Teams that fall short in the playoffs are often dealing with injuries to key players. The Jets were in that category, as Nikolaj Ehlers and Patrik Laine were clearly hobbled.  

Sense going into game 6 was there was a 99% chance Ehlers couldn’t play and 90% chance Laine wouldn’t be available. No excuses. Blues very good, but lots of injuries as is often the case in the playoffs.

— Darren Dreger (@DarrenDreger) April 21, 2019

Ehlers ended the playoffs without a point in six games. He left Game 5 after blocking a shot, but I wonder if that wasn’t the only injury. Still, there’s been a glaring lack of playoff production from Ehlers, who has never scored a playoff goal and has just seven assists in 21 career playoff games. He was even held to under ten minutes in both Game 2 and Game 6.

Laine was held without a point in his last three games, but he finished the playoffs with three goals and an assist in six games.

This won’t be an easy offseason for the Jets, who will have as many as 15 pending free agents to sort out. Laine and Kyle Connor will need contracts, which means that the Jets might not be able to afford UFAs Kevin Hayes and Brandon Tanev. Then there’s the defense – have Jacob Trouba and Tyler Myers both played their last games as Jets? Beyond pillars Dustin Byfuglien and Josh Morrissey, this defense could look very different. At least fantasy owners should finally be able to see Sami Niku on the Jets for a full season. Then you also have to wonder whether Paul Maurice’s job is safe after what appeared to be a missed opportunity. Needless to say, they’ll be lots of fantasy implications to break down with this team this offseason.

Capitals/Hurricanes

First, the bad news for the Capitals. T.J. Oshie has a broken collarbone, which likely means he’ll miss the rest of the playoffs, even if the Capitals go the distance again. As a result of Oshie’s injury, Tom Wilson was moved up to the top line with Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom, while Carl Hagelin was moved up to the second line with Evgeny Kuznetsov and Jakub Vrana.

The good news for the Capitals, of course, was the game result. After back-to-back losses in Raleigh, the Caps routed the Hurricanes 6-0 to take a 3-2 series lead. Backstrom led the way with two goals and two assists, which gives him five goals in five playoff games. He scored the same number of playoff goals last season, although it took him 23 games to do so.

Ovechkin was also doing his thing, scoring a goal and adding two assists while dishing 11 hits (no fights though). Only William Carrier and Matt Martin have more hits during these playoffs than Ovie (29).

Braden Holtby stopped all 30 shots he faced in earning the shutout, including seven shots from Sebastian Aho. Holtby will try to backstop the Capitals to a series victory back in Carolina on Monday.

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Your Vezina Trophy finalists were announced on Saturday, and they are Ben Bishop, Robin Lehner, and Andrei Vasilevskiy. Bishop led the NHL with a .934 SV% and trailed only half-season starter Binnington with a 1.98 GAA. In spite of those impressive ratios, you know that Vasilevskiy will receive a lot of first-place votes because he led the league with 39 wins, which had a lot to do with the team in front of him. Hockey media hasn’t paid enough attention to Bishop’s season, perhaps because he plays in a non-traditional hockey market for a team that squeaked into the playoffs. Because of their goaltender, the Stars might be better than we think as they are on the verge of upsetting Nashville.

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To answer an earlier question about whether we are planning any mock drafts, you’ll want to get your hands on the Fantasy Prospects Report, which will be ready for download on June 1. Last season’s FPR included a mock draft that went multiple rounds, ranked player profiles for both draft prospects and prospects for all 31 teams, plus much more! The Fantasy Prospects Report will also be available as part of the Ultimate Fantasy Pack, which will be available for pre-sale on May 1.

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For more fantasy hockey information, or to reach out to me directly, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.

  from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-power-of-the-schwartz-jets-season-crashes-apr-21/

[thrashermaxey]

The Journey: What We Learned in the WHL

If you haven't had the opportunity to check out some rankings for the upcoming draft, one of the major highlights of the first round will be the WHL’s presence. Historically, the league has been known for producing a slightly more physical breed of player, but that notion is only relative to the rest of the CHL. Each prospective NHL player must be evaluated subjectively, and this year, there is plenty of skill out West. The last time that we saw this kind of an influx of talent from the dub would have been in the 2014 draft… and frankly, that hasn't quite gone as planned.

In 2014, a total of 18 WHL players were selected in the first three rounds of the draft. Outside of Sam Reinhart (2nd overall), Leon Draisaitl (3rd overall) and Brayden Point (79th overall), by and large, they wouldn't be considered overly successful selections. Of course, serviceable players such as Travis Sanheim and Jake Virtanen also came as a result of the first round, but as a whole, the entire draft, not just the first three rounds has wound up to be a disaster for the WHL.

Some of the players expected to be chosen in the first dozen or so picks of the 2019 Entry Draft include the following players:

Kirby Dach, Saskatoon Blades

The Saskatoon Blades’ leading scorer was selected second overall in the 2016 WHL draft, just behind fellow top prospect Peyton Krebs, who was taken first. Dach has become a dynamic force in the Western league, using his body and his smooth skating ability to burn defenders. Dach will have to continue to develop those skills in order for them to have the same effect at the next level, but his current toolbelt has him prepared to allow for a gradual progression to the highest level. He plays a similar style to Ryan Johansen, but has been known to take a shift or more off when things aren’t going his way. In my personal experience of watching him, it can often become more. That’s certainly something that will need to change before he cracks an NHL roster.

Dylan Cozens, Lethbridge Hurricanes

The Whitehorse native is one of the most self-aware and intelligent forwards to come out of the WHL since Sam Reinhart (at the time). Cozens also brings a talented set of mitts with him to the draft, a skill that should translate quickly to the next level. It’s unlikely that he leaves the WHL in the next calendar year, but his awareness could push him to make the right tweaks to earn an NHL roster spot sooner than some of his peers.

Peyton Krebs, Kootenay/Winnipeg Ice

The leader of the new Winnipeg Ice is a tenacious and skilled forward who plays each shift with 100% effort. His speed and vision make him a threat to create offense each and every time he’s on the ice at the WHL level. I’m a bigger fan of Krebs than most who’ve been following the 2019 draft class, but agree that he might have a slightly lower ceiling than other forwards like Dach and Cozens.

Bowen Byram, Vancouver Giants

Labeled as the top defensive prospect approaching the 2019 Entry Draft in Vancouver, Byram is currently in the midst of a playoff push that supersedes the thresholds of his fellow top WHL prospects. Both Dach’s and Cozens’ respective clubs have been eliminated from WHL playoff contention, while Krebs was unable to will the Ice to the post-season to begin with. Byram is a highly mobile blueliner with a ceiling not unlike former top rated draft picks like Aaron Ekblad and Seth Jones.

Aside from draft eligible talent, the WHL also played host to a significant amount of high profile NHL prospects from previous drafts this year.

New Jersey Devils prospect Ty Smith leads all players in the WHL in terms of PNHLe – a stat developed by DobberProspects writer Mason Black. The Spokane Chiefs defenseman contributed on 30% of his team’s tallies this year for a total of 68 points in 57 contests. His offensive contributions project him as a first-pair defender according to Mason’s model. The Devils will give him a long look this fall in training camp, and considering their current commitments at his position, he could have an opportunity to stick around. Significant production shouldn't be expected for a couple of years, but an earlier debut will bode well for his future.

20-year-old Cody Glass had an outstanding start to his D+2 campaign with the Portland Winterhawks. Unfortunately, his season was cut short by what seemed like a nasty knee injury at the end of January. Fortunately, Glass is expected to make a full recovery to what turned out to be a sprained ACL. With some of the Golden Knights in-season additions to their forward ranks, not to mention the post-season addition of Nikita Gusev, Glass will be hard pressed to earn a favorable spot in the NHL lineup. Beginning his professional career in the AHL will be the best option for his development. Patience, however, will surely pay off with Glass who will likely get a cup or two of coffee in his rookie campaign.

In deeper leagues, Pittsburgh prospect Justin Almeida is a player to keep an eye on. The Moose Jaw Warriors’ 20-year-old forward wrapped up his second consecutive season with more than 95 points. The Pens inked Almeida to an ELC in early March, which will likely have him suit up in Wilkes Barre-Scranton in the fall.

Thanks for tuning in to our fourth edition of the series. Next week I’ll wrap things up with the OHL. If you’ve missed either of the last two reads, you can find them here:

What we learned in the QMJHL

What we learned in the SHL

What we learned in the USHL

As always, you can find me on Twitter @olaf1393.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/the-journey/the-journey-what-we-learned-in-the-whl/

[thrashermaxey]

Ramblings: Yzerman Back In Motown, Flames Doused, Advantage Leafs (Apr 20)

There were two playoff games on Good Friday. As we like to say in Canada, both of them involved Canadian teams. One team had a good night. The other, not so much.

Leafs/Bruins

Both teams played a very conservative style through the first two periods, as each team had barely reached double digits in shots on goal midway through the second period.  

Auston Matthews opened the scoring over halfway through the third period on a goal that the Bruins contested was goalie interference. It looked to me like the Bruins had a case, but in any event the call stood and it was a good goal.

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A week ago I discussed how Matthews was having a hard time scoring goals. Since then, Matthews has scored four goals over his past three games while taking 16 shots over that span. That matters because your best players have to be your best players in order to win. Now the Leafs have two chances to exorcise the Bruins demon, starting on Sunday afternoon.

Just over two minutes later, Kasperi Kapanen scored his first goal of the playoffs. He had also assisted on Matthews’ goal. The two points are his first points of the series.

David Krejci made it close, scoring with just 43 seconds left in regulation. It wasn’t enough for the Bruins, who will try to force a Game 7 on Tuesday night.

Don Cherry and Dobber agree on at least one point: Frederik Andersen is the best goalie in hockey. Andersen stopped 28 of 29 shots he faced to backstop the Leafs to the Game 5 victory.

Sean Kuraly was back in Bruins’ lineup after missing past four weeks with a broken hand. He was back on the fourth line with Noel Acciari and Chris Wagner.

Avalanche/Flames

The Avalanche are the third team that you I didn’t pick to advance to the second round, eliminating the Flames in just five games with a 5-1 win. With the addition of Cale Makar in this series and a high first-round pick via Ottawa as early as next season, the Avs are only going to climb the standings from here. If Philipp Grubauer can sustain his late-season success, this result could be a sign of things to come for Colorado next season and beyond.   

Once the damage was done, Colin Wilson and Mikko Rantanen each scored two goals and added an assist. Nathan MacKinnon and Tyson Barrie each added three assists. Rantanen has racked up nine points (5g-4a) in this five-game series, while MacKinnon has eight points.  

#Flames & #GoBolts are both eliminated.

This marks the first time in NHL history that the regular season champions from each respective conference have been eliminated in Round 1

— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) April 20, 2019

In addition, the Flames and the Lightning combined for just one win. It’s not as if these series were even close. This might be shaping up to be the most unpredictable Stanley Cup Playoffs in league history. Keep reading, because later on I’ve got something for you if your bracket is busted.

After Game 1 the Flames appeared to be a team that would roll all over the Avalanche, but since then the Avs have clearly been the better team, even though they had to go to overtime in Games 2 and 4. The Flames’ big guns were snuffed out in this series, in particular Johnny Gaudreau (1 point in 5 games) and Sean Monahan (2 points in 5 games). It was simply not Gaudreau’s night.  

Wow. This has been some game for Johnny Gaudreau. Misses penalty shot, misses net on breakaway, scores but goal is disallowed for interference.

— David Satriano (@davidsatriano) April 20, 2019

In fact, Sam Bennett led the Flames in scoring in this series with five points in five games. He was rewarded with a spot on the top line in this game, so this could even be a case of his playoff performance improving his stock for next season. Better line deployment could be what is needed to push his career back on the upswing. After scoring 36 points in his rookie season, the 2014 fourth overall pick has failed to reach 30 points in each of his last three seasons. 

James Neal was a healthy scratch for Game 5. As you might expect, he had no points in four games. Neal has quite simply been a bust for the Flames since signing a five-year contract worth $5.75 million per season last summer. His 19 points in 63 games is his lowest point total in his 11-year NHL career, and he doesn’t seem to fit into the Flames’ younger core going forward. Hopefully you didn’t draft him hoping he’d play on the Flames’ top line. We could now be seeing why Nashville left him unprotected in the expansion draft.

The Flames have a major decision coming up with respect to their goaltending. The series result is by no means entirely on Mike Smith (his 188 saves leads all playoff goalies), but he was easily considered the biggest question mark for the Flames entering this series. You’d have to think that the 37-year-old Smith won’t be returning and that the Flames would instead turn to a tandem with RFA David Rittich and a goalie that they find as a UFA (maybe they circle back to Smith?) There doesn’t appear to be anything waiting in the system, as the numbers for both Jon Gillies and Tyler Parsons don’t suggest that they’re NHL ready. Maybe a trade?

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Stevie Y is coming home. To nearly no one’s surprise, the Red Wings are bringing their former captain back as general manager, with current GM Ken Holland moving to the role of senior vice president.

This move is a home run for the Wings, both from a hockey and a PR perspective. During his time in Tampa, Yzerman has taken a relatively unstable team in a non-traditional market and turned it into a Cup contender. In fact, the Lightning are perceived by many to be the NHL’s model franchise for its ability to develop players through its minor-league system, a trait that was associated with the Red Wings during their run as one of the league’s top teams.

Sure, the Lightning haven’t won a Stanley Cup with the current core group, and the recent four-game sweep at the hands of the Blue Jackets is still raw. However, Yzerman has left the Lightning in a position in which they should be one of the league’s top teams for at least several more years to come. I’d expect the Wings to be back in the playoffs within 2-3 seasons, although the 2019-20 playoffs are probably a reach with this group as it stands today.

Current head coach Jeff Blashill was signed to a two-year extension earlier this month, so his job for at least next season is secure. However, I’d think that Yzerman would immediately raise the bar for a former contender that has now missed the playoffs for three consecutive seasons. The Wings have some nice pieces centering around Dylan Larkin, but Stevie Y will need to add more in the way of draft picks. With some cap space, Yzerman could even dip into the free agent pool as early as this summer. Optimism abound in the Motor City.

For more detailed analysis, see Mike Clifford’s fantasy take.

As for Holland, there have been rumors abound that he is being considered for the GM jobs in both Edmonton and Seattle. But according to Darren Dreger, Holland has withdrawn his name from the Oilers’ GM search.

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The Blue Jackets’ four-game sweep of the Lightning has easily been the surprise story of the NHL playoffs so far. The Islanders’ four-game sweep of the Penguins will come in as a not-too-distant second in that department. As of tonight, there’s the Flames as well. That isn’t good news if you’d built your fantasy playoff roster around the likes of Nikita Kucherov and Sidney Crosby.

There’s the old expression “when you lose, don’t lose the lesson.” So can fantasy owners learn anything from these surprise quick exits of the Lightning and Penguins, two teams that have been on the short list of Stanley Cup contenders over the last few years? I can think of at least three takeaways.

The playoffs aren’t fair

Tampa Bay’s record-setting regular season of 62 wins didn’t matter in the end, as they failed to post even a single win in a season that they were picked by many to win the Stanley Cup. This is a problem not unlike that in head-to-head fantasy leagues, where a team with a strong regular season can be eliminated quickly because of a down week, an unusually strong week by the opponent, or a combination of both. 

To ensure fairness, some fantasy leagues give first-place teams a bye in the first round. That is something that probably won’t be made possible in the NHL unless the league decides to adopt a one-game playoff similar to what MLB currently uses. A complete first-round bye might make a team more well-rested than they should be, but the real reason the league will probably never use it is that it would generate less playoff revenue for teams than simply playing the games.

So what can fantasy owners do about this? Even first-round byes don’t ensure deserving first-place teams win championships, although they make the path a little easier. You can look at your fantasy league’s playoff schedule to confirm that you don’t have key players on one- or two-game weeks (the Dobber Midseason Guide has an article on this topic). Even if you examine the schedule, it doesn’t guarantee against trades or injuries changing the course. It doesn’t hurt to draft with your playoff schedule in mind, although your first priority should still be to get to your league’s fantasy playoffs.

If the whole idea of a successful regular season going up in smoke in one week bothers you, perhaps rotisserie scoring is for you. Like the English Premier League, the team with the most points at the end of the season wins the title. Fair and square.

You won’t be the only one

Like many, I was hit with the losses of Tampa Bay players from my playoff pool (6 of the 25 players I picked were from the Lightning). However, note that I said “like many.” In spite of this loss, I’m still in fifth place among 70 teams in my playoff pool (pick any 25). All the teams in front of me also lost players with Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay being eliminated.

Not all playoff pools are constructed the same way, but many use the “pick any X number of players” model. If you play in a smaller group and perhaps use a draft, then you’re okay to diversify with players from different teams. So the key to winning might be not to miss on some of your other playoff picks. Regardless, the net effect for individual fantasy owners might not be as disastrous as you might assume.

By the way, did you know that you will be able to submit a second-chance playoff bracket over at NHL.com? Just call this the “Tampa Bay rule”, as this is the first time that the league has created this do-over bracket.

Zig when the others zag

The one writer on the Experts Panel who picked Columbus over Tampa Bay looks like a genius right now. (That was Capped writer Alexander MacLean, in case you were wondering.) It’s a high-risk strategy, but one that can pay off if the expected result doesn’t happen. Just because everyone is doing something doesn’t mean you have to. This strategy makes a little more sense in a larger pool, where picking a similar team to others won’t help you stand out. Or you could simply be the contrarian to challenge your friend’s wisdom.

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The Islanders will be without a significant top-4 defenseman for their second-round playoff series. Johnny Boychuk is expected to miss the next 3-4 weeks with a lower-body injury, which resulted from a blocked shot during the Isles’ first-round series against Pittsburgh. Boychuk was third among Isles’ defensemen in total icetime (18:50) during the regular season. Thomas Hickey is expected to enter the Isles’ lineup to replace Boychuk.

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Cam Robinson’s 2019 NHL Draft Rankings for the month of April are out. Is Jack Hughes still projected to go first overall? Which player is projected to be picked when your favorite team steps up to the podium? Cam has the answers to these and more.

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For more fantasy hockey information, or to reach out to me directly, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-yzerman-back-in-motown-flames-doused-advantage-leafs-apr-20/

[thrashermaxey]

Fantasy Take: Yzerman Hired as Red Wings Boss

  It was announced early Friday morning that there would be a press conference Friday afternoon with Steve Yzerman and Ken Holland. At this press conference, Yzerman was announced as the General Manager of the Detroit Red Wings while Ken Holland moves to a Senior Vice President role. Yzerman will also assume the role of Executive Vice President.

This is something that has been rumoured since before Yzerman even left his role in Tampa Bay and always seemed inevitable.

It may not be a position that lasts long for Holland, as Darren Dreger reports that he has already been contacted by both Edmonton and Seattle to be tapped as their next general manager. What Holland decides to do is another topic for another day.

  Let’s start with what Yzerman inherits.

Despite a poor job done with several contracts by Holland, particularly on the blue line, the overall state of the franchise isn’t poor. All those terrible contracts handed to defencemen run out, at the latest, at the end of next season. That’s all aside from Danny DeKeyser, whose contract debate we’ll also leave for another time.

Up front, Justin Abdelkader’s contract runs another four years but at $4.25-million it’s not exactly debilitating. Dylan Larkin is locked up for four more years at a very team-friendly cap hit so that’s not a concern. Both Andreas Athanasiou and Anthony Mantha will need new contracts soon as they’re RFAs after 2019-20, but there is so much money coming off the books next year that it’s not a concern, either.

Depending on your definition of prospects, we have Filip Zadina, Filip Hronek, and Dennis Cholowski all looking ready to make an impact as soon as 2019-20 (and the latter two had an impact in 2018-19). The excitement surrounds Zadina, and for good reason, but if Hronek and Cholowski can both pan out to be top-4 defencemen, that’s a huge boost to a thin blue line. There are also names like Lindstrom and Veleno to consider.

Detroit doesn’t have extra first-round picks (yet), but they do have eight picks in the second or third round in the next two drafts. That’s a lot of lottery tickets for a guy who seems to be good at finding undervalued players.

As far as inheriting a rebuilding team goes, this isn’t a bad situation.

  What does Yzerman bring?

If his track record in Tampa Bay is any indicator, Detroit will be building through the draft (the same could be said for every team, obviously) and Red Wings fans (and fantasy hockey owners) can expect a lot of smaller, skilled, undervalued players being brought into the organization. The Lightning are loaded with impact guys drafted outside the first round or signed as free agents, like Anthony Cirelli, Tyler Johnson, Yanni Gourde, Ondrej Palat, and a whole bunch more. There’s no reason to think anything will be different with the Wings.

In the near-term, a whole lot won’t change with the organization. Sure, the draft will look different than it probably would have under Holland, but this team needs a few contracts to run out. It will be 2-3 years before we’ll finally see Yzerman’s vision really hit the ice.

My assumption is he’ll try to bring the same team-first philosophy he had in Tampa Bay, which means team-friendly deals in the name of keeping a talented core together. There isn’t much that’ll put that to the test immediately, but as I mentioned, both Athanasiou and Mantha are RFAs after this season. Whether Yzerman’s philosophy in Tampa Bay translates to Detroit will be put to the test early. I suppose, if he’s successful in doing so, cap league owners are in for a treat. As the team rounds into shape a couple years down the road, they should be higher scoring than in recent years, which will only help the upside in fantasy production for the existing stars like Larkin, Mantha, and Athanasiou. I know that's always the hope for every new GM, but there's no real reason to doubt Yzerman's ability. 

  Yzerman has shown himself to be not only a competent general manager, but one of the best in the league. He seems smart enough to look for competitive edges where others may not and that’s something that can mean the world of difference in long-term success. Detroit fans have every reason to be excited today.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/fantasy-take-latest-nhl-moves/fantasy-take-yzerman-hired-as-red-wings-boss/

[thrashermaxey]

Frozen Tools Forensics: Home Sweet Home/Road Splits

  In 2017-2018, Nathan Mackinnon had 67 points in 39 games at home and only 30 points in 35 games on the road, and Blake Wheeler had 60 points in 41 games at home and 31 points in 40 games on the road. At a 37- and 29-point differential respectively, those two were the home leaders that season.

Just for interest’s sake, I ran a Home/Away report using the custom date range for the regular season from 2010-2011 to 2018-2019. Evgeni Malkin has the largest home ice split at plus-87 points and Blake Wheeler is second with plus-84 points. At the opposite end, Kyle Turris has 31 more points on the road followed by Artemi Panarin with 30 more.

We thought it would be interesting to look at the players who had some of the biggest home ice differentials this past season using the Frozen Tools Report Generator.

    Matthew Tkachuk – Calgary Flames

Tkachuk led the NHL in 2018-2019 with a 31-point differential between home and away. While his shots were almost identical at 104 and 103, his 26 goals at home and eight on the road in 40 games of each were not. His PP points (13 at home and 11 on the road) highlight the even-strength split of 41 points at home and only 12 on the road. His shooting % at home was 25.0 and on the road it was 7.8. If Tkachuk can even out his splits and improve upon the 12 points at even strength on the road, watch out as he could become a 90-100 point player next season.

  Leon Draisatl – Edmonton Oilers

In each of his past four seasons, Draisatl has performed better at home, and this past season the point differential was 17 points with 61 points at home and 44 on the road in 41 games of each. His goal output was fairly evenly matched as his shooting % was 22.7 at home and 20.5 on the road producing 27 goals at home and 23 on the road. His biggest statistical difference was the 13 fewer assists away from Rogers Place. 

  Brad Marchand – Boston Bruins

Throughout his career, Marchand has performed within five points for his home and away splits in 681 career games. This season was a little different on his way to scoring 100 points for the first time. His point differential was 22 points better at TD Garden than on the road. He had an impressive 61 points in 40 games at home and a very respectable 39 points in 39 games in his away games. His shot totals were very close but his shooting % at home was 18.4 compared to 12.8 on the road. Marchand is becoming an assist machine, getting an assist per game at home and chipping in with 30 in 31 all games post All-Star break.

  Alexsander Barkov – Florida Panthers

Barkov seemed like two different players at home and on the road. There was Barkov at home with 24 goals and 35 assists in 41 games and plus 19, and there was the road Barkov with 11 goals and 26 assists in 41 games and a minus 22. His shooting % at home was 21.1 on 114 shots and 12.0 on the road with 92 shots. For Barkov, this is not just a one-year occurrence as his career point differential is 63 points more at his home rink in 413 career games, with 35 of that difference being in goals.

  Mark Scheifele – Winnipeg Jets

Scheifele was another player that was totally different on the road. While producing 24 goals and 28 assists in 41 games and being plus 21 at home, he only had 14 goals and 18 assists in 41 road games while being minus 13. His shooting % was 22.2 at home and 15.4 on the road. Some of these road struggles were post All-Star related as he had 25 points in the last 34 games of the season while being minus 10. He is a career homebody as his differential is 61 points in 448 career games.

  Jonathan Toews – Chicago Blackhawks

It’s hard to believe that an 81-point year at the age of 30 was Toews’ best regular season in his storied career. He owes a lot to his comfort playing at United Center, as he produced a 100-point pace while scoring 22 goals and 28 assists in 41 games there. His road numbers were not nearly as great with 13 goals and 18 assists in 41 games. His career differential is 51 more points at home in 873 career games, with 31 of those being goals.

  Patrice Bergeron – Boston Bruins

Adding to the list of veterans that had career years, Bergeron posted 79 points in 65 games in his 15th season at the age of 33. He had 50 points in 33 games at TD Garden while posting a shooting % of 20.4. On the road, he managed 29 points in 32 games with a shooting % of 10.8. His career differential is 63 points more at home over his 1,028 career games. His career shooting % is 10.7 at home and 10.3 away, which is surprisingly consistent.

  Evgeny Kuznetsov – Washington Capitals

Kuznetsov had an interesting split this season as he only scored 4 goals in 37 games on the road. He’s primarily a passer, but he did manage 17 goals at home to break 20 goals for the third time in his career. Points-wise, he accumulated 46 points in 39 games at home and 26 points in 37 games on the road. He has been fairly consistent in his 416 career games with only 15 more goals and 47 more points at home.

  Andreas Athanasiou – Detroit Red Wings

If you just took the speedy Athanasiou’s stats from Little Caesars Arena this past year, he would be a 2nd or 3rd round pick in most pools, but alas, he needs to play on the road. His stats were 20 goals and 15 assists in 37 games and a plus 9 at home, but only 10 goals and nine assists in 39 games while minus 17 on the road. Surprisingly, in 2016-2017 he was the opposite with 20 points on the road and only nine at home.

  Andreas Johnsson – Toronto Maple Leafs

In his rookie season, Johnsson has had a very impressive 16 goals and 15 assists in 37 home games with a 21.6 shooting %. Get him on the road and it’s a stark contrast, with only four goals and eight assists in 36 games with a 7.1 shooting %. It will be interesting to see what Johnsson does going forward, as he has some unsustainable stat lines that I briefly touched on in an earlier column.

  Jonathan Drouin – Montreal Canadiens

Drouin was below par on the road this season. He was minus 12, with only five goals and 14 assists in 40 games. At home he was respectable with 13 goals and 21 assists in 41 games at Bell Centre. He had been much more balanced in his home/away splits before reaching Montreal but it has now been two years in a row that he has struggled on the road.

  Jesperi Kotkaniemi – Montreal Canadiens

Kotkaniemi is only on this list because he has yet to actually score an NHL goal on the road. He had 11 goals and 12 assists in 41 home games but was held scoreless in 38 road games despite having 75 shots on net. It will just be a matter of time before he pots his first next season.

  Alexander Steen – St. Louis Blues

While only generating 27 points in 65 games overall, Steen had one of the worst splits in the NHL. He had a respectable nine goals and 13 assists in 34 home games for what would have been a 53-point pace, but being on the road he produced a paltry one goal and four assists in 31 games. Prior to this season, Steen had been very consistent over his 963 career games in producing 320 points at home and 285 on the road.

  We can look at each team’s split record and see that teams like Boston, Montreal, Winnipeg, Calgary, and San Jose were going to have players with better home versus away stats this past season as those teams were all much better at home than on the road. As scoring increases, these splits will only get bigger, as we have been looking at 30-point splits in the past three seasons compared to around 20 from four or five years ago.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/frozen-pool-forensics/frozen-tools-forensics-home-sweet-homeroad-splits/

[thrashermaxey]

Puck Soup: Mistakes were made

In this week's episode of the Puck Soup podcast: - Greg, Ryan and I look back on our broken brackets and try to figure out what went wrong - What happened to the Lightning, and where do they go from here? - The Islanders' sweep the Pens, the Flames and Sharks on the ropes, and all the other series - Thoughts on the Kadri suspension and Ovechkin vs. Svechnikov - Two new coaches get big deals, but what about Buffalo? - I give the guys a quiz on a subject I'm an expert on: Playoff misery - I also get to do an ad read, but my transitions may need work

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from All About Sports http://www.downgoesbrown.com/2019/04/puck-soup-mistakes-were-made.html