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w-ht-w · 1 year

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1. Takeaways on US Policy Careers (Part 1): Paths to Impact and Personal Fit

if more people with certain strengths (discussed below) go into US policy work, it’s fairly likely that—over the course of their whole careers—they’ll have multiple huge impact wins

Big impact wins typically require identifying/creating, and taking, non-obvious opportunities. ... it’s critical to often ask yourself, “What would be good to see in the world that probably won’t happen by default / if I don’t make it happen? How can I make it happen?” (And then do it!) ... you won’t have the time or attention for that unless you very intentionally make sure you do, e.g. by blocking off some time each day or week for focused work on big picture strategy,

Powerful people in government are typically far too busy to turn vague proposals into concrete policy, and they only have the authority to pull certain levers. So policy researchers and advocates will be much more impactful if they do the following:

- Create very specific, shovel-ready recommendations that some individual(s) in government have the authority to implement.

- And/or present such recommendations to people who have authority to implement them.

Things that make someone a good fit for high-impact policy work in general include the following:

- Strong communications / people skills (Extraversion isn’t a general requirement, although it does help)

- The ability to work well with people who have very different views than you

- Analytical skills

- Being fine with (and good at!) having most of your impact come from occasionally finding/creating non-obvious opportunities to make good things happen

Also! Government is complicated:

Relationships heavily influence policy professionals’ (policy + hiring) decisions. If you need to know many things, but you don’t have time to figure them out yourself, then it becomes necessary to rely on others for doing much of that information collection and analysis—about whom to trust, whom to hire, what to pay attention to, what decisions to make, and so on.The more you’re tight on time, the more you need to rely on relationships for informing decisions.

Policymakers make myopic decisions. By default, long-term planning tends to be a relatively low priority

Lobbyists are highly influential.

Simple ideas and narratives are often highly influential.

Only clear, short summaries at the beginnings of reports have a decent chance of being read by policymakers.

Impact is highly dependent on fit. If someone is an OK fit—if they’re the kind of person who would survive in government—the expected value of their work in government is some value. If someone is an excellent fit—if they’re the kind of person who would thrive and be a policy entrepreneur, figuring out how to create high counterfactual marginal expected value and executing on it—then the expected value of their work is much higher.

2. Takeaways on US Policy Careers (Part 2): Career Advice

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changeisgradual · 4 years

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Some time last year I realised that my whole life (from teens to 20’s) had really been about career, finding that career. Mind you I wasn’t all in, spending every minute of my day trying to identify what I’d like to do etc. But I had the view that until I knew what kind of career I wanted, life had not really begun. Purpose and seeking God to understand my why, was really me trying to find out what career I was created for. I don’t think I had malicious intent but it just shows you how myopic my world view was.

Everything was geared towards this career, since a very young age, from 13 or so. Auntys and uncles in church asking you what you want to be when you are older. And grades being synonymous with where you can get to in life.

In short my perception of life was very much success was the success of my career... what ever that would be. So grades from 13 to 21 was synonymous with future success of this mysterious career that would provide me so much happiness and fulfilment. And think about it school occupies so much time, every other part of life is scheduled around school.

When that bubble was shattered and I realised that this whole notion of your life’s worth being measured by your career was honestly a notion that was created. Life was not always about your career and interests were not always viewed through that lense and identity was not always limited to your vocation. People claiming to be their trade, ‘ I AM a fashion designer, a footballer, investment banker’ ‘ I want to BE a writer, a musician, a social worker...’ Now I think it’s quite bizarre. But I used to be there, I used to ask myself: ‘what do I want to be?!?’ ... Crazy

Anyway so that bubble shattered, I felt free, this eternal search was finally over. It was a relief, especially because for me, I don’t actually like having to choose, it’s a decision that means all other choices are cancelled. So all of the choose I made in school when we’re meant to be specialising was really choices that I thought would allow me to have a wide scope of careers to choose from.

(And now to the actual meat and potatoes of my current issue...)

But now...I don’t know what life is about. I know I have certain interests and there are things I would like to learn more and more about. And I will. But it’s just, what really is this life about, what am I supposed to look forward to?

I think before I looked forward to maybe one day falling in love, being married to someone who I really connected with. Who loves God and himself ... and me ... and I’d almost be able to show that off to people. Kind of sad, but I think that was/is maybe sometimes still the case

I looked forward to being slim and looking beautiful and being desired/envied. Or being attractive.

Being smart and people respecting that.

The list goes on...

But it’s all so empty... will all this things actually make me happy? Do I need for other people to recognise or witness these different achievements for me to feel good about them?

Even to this day it’s like: why am I doing these things? These goals I have

And it always end up in me deciding instead to learn more about life itself.

So life then becomes about learning about life. As opposed to think you know the meaning of life and trying to build this great life and ‘getting ahead’. Life becomes a discovery.

There is so much to unravel, like is there a tangible end I am seeking even with this search? Do I expect answers that I can use to execute and build upon in a tangible way?

I feel so frazzled, the thing is I go through cycles, I shave asked myself these kind of questions before... asking a lot of ‘why questions. other times I am more goal oriented and focus on achieving. Other times I am generally just looking around for understanding of what life or things (a relationship, successful life etc) should be so I can better align myself to it. Other times I am just bored and kind of endlessly distracted by possibilitities of what I could learn, discover , etc. I am Not in one state so it’s hard to commit to any, always jumping around and then these states are always felt through my emotions not thought through

I do need to resolve this tbh and learn more about perosnality and also more about life and come to terms with my psychological needs, like my need for stability, stability of my view of the world maybe ... maybe if I was aware of this, life and it’s meaning changing based on my growing or changing understanding wouldn’t be a frustrating experience. I would ask ‘why did I know that before?!😡’ I would just realise that My views will keep changing and I would adjust.

What is actualisation? Is it individuation?

It’s so hard to explain because even with individuation, i perceive it as becoming a more balanced human.. so getting to a state where my ideals are paired with action and interest paired with constistencey. (Very simple) just that I’m balanced and I then live as balanced human... so it’s still perceived through the frame of development learning then execution... soooo am I just I’m search of what or how to execute?

I’m leaving this confused.

Still asking, what is life and why just why did God make this planet and humans.

Yo, question. If there were no problems would humans have abit bring to occupy themselves with?

- not asking that to validate problems

- asking more so to question ppl and the view of meaning of life. If there were no problems would you have anything to occupy your time with

- think I asked that question more so to the people who really claim they are here to help and impact change. Does the problem need you to solve it or do you need to have the problem to have something to solve.

Sigh

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somnilogical · 4 years

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<<Over the past year, however, Google has appeared to clamp down. It has gradually scaled back opportunities for employees to grill their bosses and imposed a set of workplace guidelines that forbid “a raging debate over politics or the latest news story.” It has tried to prevent workers from discussing their labor rights with outsiders at a Google facility and even hired a consulting firm that specializes in blocking unions. Then, in November, came the firing of the four activists. The escalation sent tremors through the Google campus in Mountain View, Calif., and its offices in cities like New York and Seattle, prompting many employees — whether or not they had openly supported the activists — to wonder if the company’s culture of friendly debate was now gone for good.

(A Google spokeswoman would not confirm the names of the people fired on Nov. 25. “We dismissed four individuals who were engaged in intentional and often repeated violations of our longstanding data-security policies,” the spokeswoman said. “No one has been dismissed for raising concerns or debating the company’s activities.” Without naming Berland, Google disputed that investigators pressured him.)>>

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/18/magazine/google-revolt.html

<<“Of the five people that were fired, three of us are trans women,” Spiers said. “That is either an unbelievable coincidence or Google is targeting the most vulnerable.”

“Trans Googlers make up a very small percentage of Googlers,” she added. “They make up a slightly larger percentage of organizers, but not 60%.”>>

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/dec/17/fifth-google-worker-activist-fired-in-a-month-says-company-is-targeting-the-vulnerable

i too am transfem and would "violate longstanding data-security policies" if my organization were being unjust. i wouldnt say that unless it were already obvious by what bits ive leaked to people about my life, because otherwise i could suppress this information and whistleblow more.

if you were an evil corp at this point youd probably try to avoid hiring any trans women in the first place because given this happens to you, its likely done by a transfem. not that this saved CFAR, who never hired a trans woman, from having a bunch of transfems whistleblow on them despite not being employees.

from what ive read from transfem google employees who are or were involved in activism, the degredation of google's culture. their complicity with ICE and weapons manufacturing mirrors CFAR's with OpenAI and DeepMind; authoritarianism and expulsion of transfems who object to this among a myriad of wrongs. to protect the territory of injustice and complicity with organizations like ICE, google needs to import "a consulting firm that specializes in blocking unions", CFAR needs to violate their whistleblower policy. if you once protect injustice, justice is ever after your enemy. morality isnt some modular thing such that you can be comitted to protecting injustice and not have this choice spiral into also invoking and protecting systems that protect injustice and invoking further things to protect those, recursively. all the way down to doing really dumb and obvious unjust things like transmisogyny (lots of future posts), changing your fundraiser after its clear its losing money, announcing that this year you got way below your donation target and claim to have no idea why.

well *i* know the compact generator for all of these things, and that makes me strong. unlike MIRI/CFAR who like the CDC rely on gaslighting the populace for myopic gains. i also wore a particle mask during the time that the CDC claimed that they were useless to preventing spread of disease, so it was really important to give them to doctors and nurses.

after so much gaslighting, *i* have built up general capabilities at arbitraging the difference between what agents claim and the truth. people who say:

<<Edit: This is a type of post that should have been vetted with someone for infohazards and harms before being posted, and (Further edit) I think it should have been removed by the authors., though censorship is obviously counterproductive at this point.

Infohazards are a real thing, as is the Unilateralists’s curse. (Edit to add: No, infohazards and unilateralist’s curse are not about existential or global catastrophic risk. Read the papers.) And right now, overall, reduced trust in CDC will almost certainly kill people. Yes, their currently political leadership is crappy, and blameworthy for a number of bad decisions—but it doesn’t change the fact that undermining them now is a very bad idea.

Yes, the CDC has screwed up many times, but publicly blaming them for things that were non-obvious (like failing to delay sending out lab kits for further testing,) or that they screwed up, and everyone paying attention including them now realizes they got wrong (like being slow to allow outside testing,) in the middle of a pandemic seems like exactly the kind of consequence-blind action that lesswrongers should know better than to engage in.

Disclaimer: I know lots of people at CDC, including some in infectious diseases, and have friends there. They are human, and get things wrong under pressure—and perhaps there are people who would do better, but that’s not the question at hand.>>

https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/h4vWsBBjASgiQ2pn6/credibility-of-the-cdc-on-sars-cov-2/comment/uDYbgf3QtEQirbsJk

havent. its easy to see how peoples minds are warped when its someone elses glowy thing, when its someone elses friends working for an institution that that someone else routed their hopes through.

its easier to recognize betrayal and see knowledge beyond the veil when its happening to someone else, instead of you.

until you build up general skills for recognizing it, this sort of betrayal isnt infinitely powerful. and like how you might expect that smart people who live for predation would do anti-inductive smart predatory things, but they end up converging on child sex rings; institutions that betray you, because justice is their enemy will start doing dumb unjust things like banning two people from speaking about their irl experiences with anna salamon, saying their first-hand accounts werent evidence and then citing anna salamon's first-hand account of the meeting as evidence. when i objected that this was a fucked up self-serving ontology of "evidence" they acted like i was objecting to "beliefs flow from evidence" and they acted as if what i was saying was obscure and beyond their ability to comprehend. their "incomprehension" was fake, downstream of a fear to dynamically compute things in front of other people that might end up outside the orthodoxy. the result of which is they display a blue screen of death and say “i just dont understand and aaa dont explain this to me!!!”. and then people agree that it "seems like it could be an infohazard" because when your goal is the preservation of the matrix, everything that tears it down looks like hazardous information.

or a cfar employee, in response to claims that anna's transmisogyny influences CFAR's hiring choices, claiming that anna salamon, head of CFAR, is not involved in CFAR's hiring. until i post proof from another CFAR employee pursuing personal vengeance against the org for hiring their rapist where its tangentially mentioned and they suddenly "realize" that anna salamon, head of CFAR, is involved in CFAR's hiring process.

or a thousand other injustices that have burned themselves into my brain during my months of talking with people under the assumption that they were simply mistaken in their path to saving the world. when they were actually un-mistaken in their path to having babies and a low chance of personal death. hoping and expecting someone else will take heroic responsibility for the planet.

like when you drill down to the base of injustice, it bottoms out in dumb and petty injustice. like the structure doesnt go infinitely high and complex, if you go down to the base level, you just need a bit of courage to not flinch away from what you see even if it seems that it means the ruin of something you ran your hopes and dreams through.

"isnt this a little... extreme?" i hear some people ask. ""dont protect regions of injustice?" that sounds like the end product of obsessive compulsive fixation on virtue at the expense of practicality."

well, assuming the algorithm seeding this response is a systemic reasoning tool, it should forkbomb when you consider if youd output ""dont protect regions of untruth?" that sounds like the end product of obsessive compulsive fixation on virtue at the expense of practicality." in response to eliezers essay. the principle behind both is the same such that if you hold by one you should hold by the other.

all of these things have parallels. if you want to see what is happening with MIRI/CFAR, theres a lot of mutual information with whats happening with Google.

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myfandomrambles · 5 years

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Parenting and Gilmore Girls

Gilmore Girls most important ethos is that it’s the story of three generations of a family and the dynamics thereof. So important part is the parenting of Emily & Richard VS Lorelai and I guess Chris. Other characters also play into this like Ms Kim and others. But I’m going to focus on the main Gilmore for this.

Emily and Richard were hyper-controlling and emotionally abusive. They expected Lorelai to be exactly what they thought she should be at all times. Often tries to control things not only through emotional manipulation but also through direct acts. Emily continually tries to force Christopher into their lives unwanted, set up events for Rory without asking and assumes she should have a role in everything. Richard shows similarly manipulative behaviours with going behind their backs about Yale. They insulted her for her looks and behaviour many times over the course of the show. Explicitly making fun of her head and when she doesn’t fit in her coming out dress Emily tells her to go jog to fit in it. They made decisions Lorelai always resented and never thought about why she would. Over a decade after Rory was born they still talk about how ashamed they are of Lorelai for getting pregnant. Calling it a failure and that it ruined their lives. Richard even saying the only reason to defended her was how bad it made him look.

After the death of Richard Emily ignores Lorelai’s grief in favour of her own, telling Lorelai that she never loved her own dad. She always expects the apology first only ever admitting to being wrong a few times, and always assumes she can buy forgiveness. Richard's inability to show much affection and consistent absence through overwork putting a large gap of connection with Lorelai. Multiple times we see Lorelai be unable to remember usual childhood connections with her father even when she wants too. Lorelai is blamed for Christopher's lack of success and being a deadbeat father. She did, of course, refuse his marriage proposal, but never stopped him being there for Rory. Any time Rory struggles, or Chris doesn’t show up it’s on Lorelai.

This controlling and abusive behaviour shaped Lorelai into a rebel and over the top free spirit who also has control issues. Lorelai has a tendency to switch between hyper-confidence and an extreme lack of it. An internalized view her parents taught her. She works overtime to not be her parents, sometimes to an extreme. She wants independence so bad but also seeks deep connections. The extreme volatility in their parent/child relationship spilt over into all of Lorelai’s relationships.

Her relationship with Rory was codependent and Rory experienced some degree of being a parentifed child. Lorelai tried to let Rory be a free spirit and see her mother as much of a friend as a parent. In many ways this was good. Rory always felt loved and like she could be anything she wanted. Rory was able to have tight friends and a large support network. The gap her father left in her life never left her as hurt as others as Lorelai did her best to not let her feel like it was her fault. Lorelai also never subjected Rory when she was super young to a parade of partners who could have hurt her.

But there were downsides too. Rory didn’t always get some of the parenting she needed equally playing a role in the emotional and practical support of her mother. Even if they were more open about things then most parent and child Rory still felt a need to be self-sufficient and feard reaching out. She inherited her mother's terrible communication skills as well. Having to be the responsible one along with her mother I think fed into her trying to abdicate responsibility in college and fall into letting her grandparents run things. Being able to be laidback after facing failure was different from the hyper-responsible outlook she had growing up.

Lorelai, of course, tried to build Rory up after everyone in her childhood putting her down. This is good in Rory feeling like she can succeed and be loved, but also I think set her up to not handle failure. the expectation of success and lack of needed constructive criticism gave Rory Lorelai's fear of failure and caused her to be even more myopic in life as an adult then Lorelai ever was.

Emily and Richard I think did parent Rory in some ways. They, of course, did a lot of the same things to Rory namely being controlling and holding too many expectations over her head. However, I think they tended to be kinder and more overall supportive of Rory, which I think is what took Rory longer to recognize some of their more toxic behaviours. Rory didn’t really see this till Emily tried to treat Rory like a child when she was an adult. This behaviour I think was genuinely toxic from the start though, Emily and Richard saw Rory as almost a second chance to have a better Lorelai. Of course when they are kind and help Rory reach her goals that are good but it often slides into being manipulative.

In my opinion, of course, Lorelai was a better parent. She spent all of Rory’s childhood working her ass off to give her the best life. She spent so much time working sucky jobs and wanting to give Rory anything she could need. Lorelai made a lot of mistakes but was never abusive like her parents.

Lorelai is absolutely not worse than her parents. Like yes, Emily told her Rory she wasn't a mistake, but I don't think Rory grew up with the idea in her. Se, of course, new she was an accident in her conception but Lorelai always treated her as wanted and loved. When Rory wanted to leave school Richard did show empathy to Rory in a more overt way because he played into her emotions. I think Lorelai could have done this better, but what Rory chose to do was not the best course of action and then it turned into manipulation and we see they didn't really know Rory assuming she was a virgin when Lorelai really knew Rory inside and out.

Parenting in Gilmore Girls is honestly fascinating in that we get emotional and psychological abuse shown without the introduction of physical or sexual abuse to "prove" it's abuse. While I know many others don't read it as such, it is really and clearly that. We also see the trickle-down effects that pass through Lorelai too Rory through her own mistakes something I think is really important as well. Lorelai isn't abusive to Rory but even with that she still struggles to not pass down toxic ideas and messages. The deep love we see even with these struggles is very powerful as well.

So that’s a rant *shrugs*

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lifeisgoodopf · 3 years

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A Proposal For Ending Lawmakers’ Questionable Stock Trades - The New York Times

For my top 30 holdings, Best World returned to the list again as investors bought back the trendy boutique after a selldown last month. That is why I think that the handwringing over how low dividend yields have become over the last two decades misses the point. The reason, I believe is that our views on buybacks are a function of how we think companies act, what the motives of managers are and what it is that investors price into stocks. The truth is that the real world is a messy place, with some companies buying back stocks for the right reasons (i.e., because they have no good investments and their stockholders prefer cash returns in this form), some companies buying back stock for short term price gains (to take advantage of markets which are myopic) and some companies focusing on buying back stock at the expense of their employees, lenders and own long term interests. If companies follow this process, buybacks are just another way of returning cash to stockholders, benign in their impact, because they are not coming at the expense of good investments, at least with good defined as investments that generate more than their hurdle rates.

It should come as no surprise that the industries where you see buybacks used the least tend to be industries which have a history of large dividend payments, with utilities, metals and mining and real estate making the list. While that may surprise some, since these are viewed as high growth businesses, some of the biggest players in both technology and pharmaceuticals are now middle aged or older, using my corporate life cycle structure. If you look at the graph above, you can see that the rise in buybacks has been accompanied by a stagnation in dividends, with growth rates in dividends substantially falling short of growth in buybacks. Using the same logic that I used to argue that cash yields were better indicators of cash returned to shareholders than dividend yields, I computed cash payout ratios, by adding buybacks to dividends, before dividing by net income in the table in the last section, and it does show a disquieting pattern. Accounting Inconsistencies: Over the last few decades, the percentage of S&P 500 companies that are in technology and health care has risen, and that rise has laid bare an accounting inconsistency on capital expenditures. The cash yield for US companies, which includes both dividends and buybacks, is much more indicative of what companies are returning to shareholders and that number has remained relatively stable over time.

After much pondering, viewing and discussing, it's time to let go this opportunity and say good bye for the conveniency sake of my family. Let us look at the first box on above stock. In my 7-27-09 post titled: San San Diego Homes - WHEN IT PAYS TO LET THEM FORECLOSE! Below is a list of the Best Ebola stocks to watch. The stock advisory company is supposed to optimize the entry and exit prices, conduct market research to come up with the best deal for you, and keep track of the current stock prices. The Government Jobs report will be out Friday so we will have to see what the official number is but most importantly how the stock market reacts to the news. The benign view of stock buybacks is built on the presumption that managers make decisions at publicly traded companies with an eye on maximizing value, and since value is a function of expected cash flows over the life of the company, that they have a long term perspective.

#boutiques #laurie belle boutique #finders keepers boutique #la modish boutique

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johannaordaniel · 4 years

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“Hope for Humanity”

It feels like Hope is necessary to heal us in today's world. It's really a decision to heal our world. We must sense the pain that will arise if nothing is done, and we must understand what the dramatic environmental consequences of our past acts have already done for us. We have to open our eyes and wake up from our warm slumber and act as quickly as possible and help life in this more all-human world. If we found an asteroid that would squander our worlds in 12 years ' time, all space agencies, governments, industries would combine to try and find a way and change the course. We must adjust our view and take on a new sense of emergency. Climate Change-which is accelerating-is the meteor. Why waste our time and money to battle our neighbors instead of working together to secure what we have until it's too late? Hope means that we must all have the confidence to expose the ludicrous existence of existing methods. We concentrate on the wrong stuff and distract ourselves by interpreting myopically the problems already affecting us. Getting hope is wanting a result that somehow enhances your life. It will not only help to make a difficult current situation more supportive, but will also ultimately change our lives because planning a better future can inspire you to do so. If we think about it or not, optimism is a part of everyone's life. There's something one wishes for. This is an integral part of becoming an individual. Hope helps us to define what we want in our future and is part of our self-tales about our lives. Most people associate hope with a dire situation. People expect to avoid harsh conditions. That's always why people look forward to it! However, hope can also be the key to improving daily life. In a way, hope connects your history and your present with the future. For what you think will happen, you have a vision. It can only make you feel better if it doesn't, just picture it. And if you can control anything–such as children working to get out of poverty ��then hope can motivate you to do whatever you need. Humanity means taking care of others and helping them, as far as possible. Humanity requires helping people, when they most need support, ignoring our egoistic desires at times, when others need our support. Humanity means extending unconditional love to all living beings on earth. If we just eat and have fun, we should bear in mind one thing; even animals can do that. One does not need a hefty bank account to contribute towards humanitarian activities. Humanity is also reasonably paying our domestic aid. Humanity lifts an old woman's heavy bag and helps a person with a disability get on the road is mankind, helps your mother to get on the road is humanity; indeed humanity supports all in need. The purpose for which we are on earth is automatically fulfilled once we understand the importance of humankind in daily life. Religion is a large force that must contribute to one's existence and sustain you. You don't just have to dedicate your life to a set of rules and lessons. It's what you take from any religion that 's important. The teachings of love, harmony and reconciliation are offered to all religions. It should be something to trust and not just something to describe what we do and what we think. Peace is the main necessity. Where there is harmony there is plenty. For Me, humanity is the most important religion-you are described everywhere as a good human being. Everything you need to do is always and everywhere helpful to the needy. To love and respect for all living things, including plants and animals, to understand the dilemma of others and to understand the circumstances that they are in and to be considerate about. When we consider the term humanity, we might not only think of the beautiful qualities that people can bring to a good end, but also of the awful characteristics emanating from the darkest corners of people's hearts. The fact is, life is how you can help to improve the world, not how you and the people around you can constantly condemn it. Naturally there is constructive criticism but what do we really hope to achieve when it becomes hostile or angry? In the past, I made this error only to know that it didn't get me anywhere. We should take the time to listen to people too. There are so many people out there who don't want to listen but can't wait to speak over you or talk down to you. We have to learn to open our hearts and minds and to learn that "god complexes" don't bring us anywhere. Stop it. Avoid it. Take in the world. Accept the world. Take the world. Forget about your complex of dominance. Life lessons are to teach us to be modest. Life lessons should show that it's all right to fight, it's all right to cry. It should not teach us that it is all right for others to behave cruelly or allow our spite and pride to get the best of us. Empathy, compassion, tolerance and modesty must be exercised everyday. This is humanity's value. We learn to think creatively, critically, to consider, to ask questions, through the exploration of the humanities. Since this know-how helps one to gain new perspectives on everything from poetry and art to business models and policy, since antique Greeks used it first to teach their people, humanistic topics have been at the core of a liberal arts education. Human experience study contributes to our understanding of our environment. The work of scientists of the humanities shows us the principles of various cultures, how an art work is created, and how history is created. Their efforts retain the great achievements of the past, enable us to recognize the world in which we live and to build instruments for the future. Humanistic knowledge is still the ideal basis for exploring the human experience today. Researching a philosophical branch may help you think of ethical issues. Appraisal of the similarities of different cultures may be beneficial if you learn another language. Looking at a sculpture, you might think how the life of the artist has influenced her artistic choices. If you read a book from another part of the world, you can think about democracy. Hearing the course in history will help you understand the past better and at the same time provide you with a clearer image of what the future holds. Humanity, from a simple being to the individuals making up the human race, has many meanings. There is no conclusion to the debate without this civilization. Humanities may also mean, in this situation, no goodness, no society displaying love, humility, benevolence and sympathy to others. So I'd say that humankind doesn't just matter in our lives. Humanity is important for our existence and is rising as human beings. Humanity is a characteristic of the human that is granted to the human and separates himself from all entities by nature. Human beings do not mean a individual owns civilization. In the quality of society, an individual takes care of what he does for individuals who take care of the favour, in exchange. Getting hope means having a result that somehow changes your life. Not only does it serve to make the current stressful situation more tolerable, but it can also finally change our lives, as saving for a prosperous future motivates you to do so. Hope is a part of the life of everyone, whether or not we care about it. It's something that everybody hopes for. It's a component inherent to being a man. Hope allows us to identify what we desire in our world and forms part of our life-story that we are all within our minds. In the real world, we are human and created to live. Nature kindly gave us universal, necessary wishes to ensure that we did all we could to survive and succeed for our life. Such wishes include hunger , thirst, home, families, and a group like ourselves–we've become social. Nature gave also a brain which predicts the future. Our brain still forecasts our future to help us live, no matter whether we are conscious of it or not. Knowing not to move ahead will save our lives in a fast-moving vehicle. We don't get extinct and see what we need to do to help our family. Our fundamental human needs should be met. There are conditions including to make friends, to be friendly, to spend time with people who love us. Most of the desperation which I see is due to our break-up. We should also focus on updating our plot. Hopelessness is a hypothesis; what happened before happens again is the brain saying. It didn't have to, though. We should rewrite the tale and create a concrete series of plans and goals to ensure that we fulfill our fundamental values as an entity. Desperation will become pleasure. Make sincere expectations –stuff you would expect of excitement. It could be a break or a job that is more interesting or purposeful. You may want to save something for yourself. If we have trouble adjusting our vision and the future, we might need a trained therapist to support us. Perhaps more of us will be more hoped for and less despair and desperation if we return to see that we fulfill our basic human needs. We may, I guess. Hope is a human desire that has been quantified and observable by the hope that we can face a given challenge and that we can take on an active role in persevering and seeing things in opposition. In order to accomplish the challenge before us, hope requires active involvement of body and mind. The cognitive, persuasive, mental , physical, biochemical, psychological and spiritual side of being human is the core aspect in which optimism is involved. We have ideas and perceptions that ultimately alter the architecture of the connection between the mind and body. Hope is a huge influence of confidence. Crowns are hopes. Our desires direct us into these convictions if we believe in something. In our brain, those neurochemicals activate our thoughting and sensation, which in turn positively influence our bodies. Hope, an elixir that arrives from inside, is a human-like condition. Irrespective of our disagreements as human beings, optimism remains perhaps our most important weapon in overcoming the many difficulties of life. It has an important pathological, mental and physical effect on the healing process. Depression, fear and depression are reduced. Our general well-being is improved by optimism. We also think of hope as being naïve or unreal, imagining it as tossing things at the wall and wishing for something. That should be paired with naive faith or it can just work out avoiding red flags and the promise of things. Some are also suppressing optimism because they are scared. We inspire ourselves and assume that we will get there when anything appears possible. If we are hopeful we do not get complacent or paralyzed by anxiety, we think and act strategically. We shift our attitude to the situation or the challenge as we feel optimistic. We plan to change things and how we want to get there. By realizing we have no influence of what happens, we can achieve a wider viewpoint just by responding to it. Hope gave inmates the hope that they would someday change their conditions and improve things. This gave them the wish to pursue their pain and to find meaning. The last right for man is to take his own stance. People who don't see hope will feel disappointed, caring, nervous, depressed and annoyed. When a human is being beaten down further and hope slips away, it will become a resignation, a lustlessness, a lifelessness – a move that is more like an automatic human than a man of free will, self-determination and great ability. However, things will start to improve with an injection of optimism. We will be inspired by the light at the end of our tunnel.

#@queenlupitajones

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kendrixtermina · 7 years

Text

Extra Typology Vol #3 - Part 17: An Overview of Strenghts and Weaknesses

Since the main/extensive articles on the types were written with the intention to extract, present & popularize as much of the info in the book as possible they may have gotten...rambly as it is probably a general flaw on my explanatory writings. So here’s a summaizing overview in a form that people seem to tend to appeciate.

This is largely based on those neat little summarizing texts the authors conveniently placed before the life advice sections though I will attempt to fill in for the additional styles in some of the expanded versions of this system while I’m at it.

It’s worth mentioning (& you might recognize this pattern in the advice they list) that the authors generally suggest that you try to use your strong points (be they organizing, imagination etc.) to compenate for your weak ones and gently ease into the edges of your un-comfortzone.

Conscientious

+ You are Great Oganizers & List-Makers & can be expected to have work related things figured out + You are trustwothy, grounded, dependable and mature - may not know how to relax & hence incur stress-related health risks - may benefit from broadening their mind, Pov and personal life

Self-Confident

+ Your ability to strive for sucess & your neve to boldly go after it set you apart from all other personality styles + You are probably quite aware of your capabilities & know what you’re worth - To ensure that your character works to your advantage, you may need to develop a more realistic sense of your own shortcomings - Beware of myopic outlooks particularly overlooking dissatisfaction in other people as this may bite you in the ass

Devoted

+ You know how to love & how to give & are keenly aware of other people’s needs + You are diplomatic & like to promote harmony - You might benefit from turning your attention to yourself, see what you can do on your own behalf and let others know who you are and what they can do for you - You may tend to agree with those who are important to you, perhaps stiffling your own opinions; You may run the risk of appearing less interesting to those whose approval you wanted to win in the first place

Dramatic

+ You know how to see & find the exciting & colorful in everyday life + You are very intuitive about people & know how to lead even more reticent fellows to open up to you - Your sources of Self-Esteem lay outside yourself, which may make your inner life unsteady; finding sources inside yourself will ensure some inner calm - Simply avoiding the unpleasant and boring pats of life doesn’t always work. Try not to let them pile up in an overwhelming manner

Vigilant

+ Your mind & Senses are always on, monitoring the environment, other people and the local power structures; Because of that, little escapes your notice + Though reserved, you are likely a good and observer of people who remembers details & sees though subtle motivations - Always being in such a state of aler can leave you physically ad emotionally tense; Try to unplug from that once in a while - Also beware of false positives - Sometimes things simply go wrong because of tragedy & misfortune without a clear cause or culprit

Sensitive

+ Your love of the familiar allows you to built a comfortable personal environment in which you know everything about the places, activities & people you deal with + You are likely to be likeable, friendly, warm, loyal, imaginative & kind. Aww~ - However, your adherence to the familiar could alo get you into a rut so try to change things up & venture just a little outside your comfort zone once in a while - Your ‘Danger-alert system’ is extremly sensitive so you might be worrying over nothing occasionally

Leisurely

+ You know how to be contented & happy just by doing the things you like + You don’t let anybody push you around, know how to enforce your own priorities and know that you have as much of a right as anyone else - You tend to look more inward than outward, so it might help to try & focus/ notice what is important to those around you & what brings them pleasure - Beware of Procrastination hell

Adventurous

+ Your strong points include your spontaneity, strenght, fearlessness, ability to act and experience pleasure + You have a natural tendency to live life to the fullests, fill it up with worthwhile experiences & life in the moment - If you run into trouble, it’ll likely result from impulsivity & lack of forethought; For your own benefit & the sake of those around you it may help to work on these so you’re not hampered by unexpected consequences - Try to put at least some thought into what you want for the future

Idiosyncratic

+ You are likely to be interesting, original, possibly very spiritual, maybe even highly creative and gifted + You are no slave to bogus or limiting aspects of social convention& go your own way - Because of your insistence on doing things your own way, you may pay a price in your personal and professional relationships - You may not realize just how diffeent you actually are, that is, fail to pick up what is expected in any given situation.

Solitary

+ In your ability to be comfortable alone, you have no peers. You don’t get lonely easily + You can probably entertain yourself seemingly endlessly & relish your activities just as much by yourself & go about your own pursuits without distraction - You may want to improve your elationships with people,even if it’s only to go about your self-determined business more easily - You may find it hard to relate to others or “speak their language”, & your different social needs can make it difficult to keep a friendship or partnership going

Mecurial

+ Among the strengts that infuse your life are an ability to life & feel to the fullest and a temendous appreciation for interpersonal relationships. + You throw yourself into your pursuits wholeheartedly & have an unique ability to adapt to new places, social groups & lifestyles - To feel more fulfilled & sucessful in life & your relationships, work on developing some detachment & restrait - Be aware that you tend to have very high expectations that may sometimes veer into the unrealistic

Self-Sacrificing

+ You are a naturally unselfish, generous, helpful & giving human being capable of adapting to, accepting & getting along with almost everyone. w00t! + You work had to please even when no one asks or thanks you for it - You may deny your own needs & pleasures more than you realize - Work on establishing a firmer balance of give-and-take by being more cicumspect in giving and more assertive in taking

Aggressive

+ Congratulations! You likely have enormous potential for sucess, especially in your professional life. + You run a tight ship & are exceptionally good at getting things done as a leader - To make your home life as rewarding as your professional one, it might help to smooth your sometimes over-bosy side as it may cause conflict for you at home. - You may have a bit of a temper, especially if others defy your authority. Try not to overreact to the healthy self-assertion of others

Serious

+ You are a hard worker who preseveres in all tasks, no matter how sour + You have a measured, realistic outlook on the world - In oder to protect yourself from stress, enhance your relationships & to preserve your strenght for truly difficult times, you may need to develop some flexibility - You may have difficulty putting yourself forward in social situations, when seeking employment or on the job.

Inventive

+ You’re probably interested in social climbing & have the eyes & sensitivities for doing so & getting into the good graces of high-status people + You have a variety of interests, are innovative & are diven to cultivate many talents. Cool! - You are sensitive to how others ptreat or perceive you and may have a hard time coping with social embarassment or humiliation; Remember that it’s not the end of the world - You may be so focussed on attaining what gets recognition that you become caught up in superficial things or out of touch with your very own wants & feelings

Exuberant

+ You are not just active, gregarious,and an appreciator of beauty, but also highly productive& invested in being skillfull. + You value & tend to seek out pleasurable & intense experiences and novelty - You may have a tendency to splurge or otherwise be given to occasional excesses or be flakey in relationships - On the other hand there might be a risk of being so absorben in your pursuit of the day & the search for esciting experience that you neglect to take care of yourself and flake out on your loved ones

Artistic

+ You’re likely very creative, subject to rushes of inspiration & given to experience the beauty & meaning of everything in life through your heart + You tend to have a gasp on many different corners of the human experience & therefore have a nuanced understanding of different viewpoints - You dislike routine & tend to make decisions based on your current mood, which may sometimes lead to less-than-thought-through decisions or jeopardize your relationships - Both your productivity & confidence may be somewhat unsteady and subject to ‘seasonal fluctuations’

Carefree

+ You are naturally young at heart, charming, refreshing, unabashed & not overly bogged down by inhibition + You take an uncomplicated, straightforward view of things & relationships - You may be somewhat scattered & might benefit from working on handling everyday responsibilities - You may find it hard to act sufficiently mature when others rely on you

#oldham #personality #typology #oldham personality #extraTypology

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stinkrascal · 3 years

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Little controversial, but a lot of fun. What are your sim s' toxic traits? Asking all of my favourite story tellers. Let's get deep

omg YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSS please i love talking about controversial things lets goooooooooo <3

vlad - he’s a very controlling and overbearing person, honestly. he’s the type of person who trusts his knowledge above everyone else’s and feels he’s the most capable in any given situation, therefore he feels it’s only right that he’s in charge, no matter the circumstance. he’s wise, yes, but after centuries of believing this of himself, his wisdom has warped to unabashed pride, and he finds it difficult to trust another’s capabilities over his own because of it. i like to think this ties into why he’s fairly codependent in his relationships; he needs to feel as though he’s the one providing for, guiding, and therefore “controlling” his relationships, he needs to feel needed, so he seeks out people who feed into that desire, people he feels are “misguided” who need a wise, proper hand to bring them to normalcy. you know, someone like him, the spitting image of normalcy, seeking out impressionable people in an attempt to satiate his intense desire to be needed. like sir have u ever heard of therapy? LMAOOO

breanna - she’s laidback to a fault and oftentimes irresponsible, someone who rarely considers the outcomes of her decisions and someone who ignores the telltale signs given to her. this manifests in a lot of careless, reckless behavior and poor decision making skills. like, for instance, if vlad reminds breanna that the water bill must be paid by x day? you best bet the water will be shut off because queen, irresponsible as she is, forgot to send the check. if she promises to bring you to your doctor’s appointment, you best bet that the morning of you’re gonna call her only to discover she didn’t realize your doctor’s appointment was Today and she is currently stoned asf and cannot operate her vehicle, to which you will reply Breanna It’s 8 AM Why Are You Smoking At 8 AM to which she will apologize and cry and hang up and fall asleep. much like vlad, i like to think this ties into her own codependency issues, as she feels she’s, in essence, unable to properly, or rather, responsibly care for herself, and must rely on someone else to do this for her. she enables his controlling nature by relying on him for most things, and in return he enables her immaturity by providing for her unconditionally. isn’t that, like, super fucked up lmaooooo? like, it’s the sims universe u know, so take all of this with a grain of salt, bc like in the context of my silly sims 4 legacy all of these codependency issues honestly amount to, like, breanna being a happy and uncritical stoner tradwife and vlad being the one who pays the bills and drives. it’s not actually that serious u know. but when you think about it critically and apply it to like real-world scenarios n consequences n whatever... it’s gross as fuck <3 you guys need therapy <3

lucien - like vlad, he’s fairly prideful, as he feels he’s the most knowledgeable and capable of any given situation, but more so than that, he feels the need to show off his intelligence by testing others’ knowledge. he also feels the need to lecture those he feels aren’t as knowledgeable as he is; often he doesn’t realize he’s doing it. he’ll basically mansplain to you for hours, if you don’t keep him in check. also, his ego usually gets the best of him, and he can’t help but find himself better than those he views as unintelligent. it can come off a little classist at times, and this is something which has been brought to his attention in the past, something he wishes to alleviate in his further interactions. it’s a work in progress. ;-;

gen - their main issue is that they’ve a difficult time understanding and empathizing with other people, primarily women. i like to think this comes from their overall discomfort within themselves, whether that discomfort revolves around their personality, their gender identity, or their apathy towards life. women in particular are difficult for gen to empathize with, as it is that gen makes an effort to distance themselves from women, most likely a consequence of their discomfort with their assigned gender. lashing out at the “thing” they wish to distance themselves from is a simple, quick way to tell your peers, I Am Not This Thing! you don’t wish to be perceived as a women? vehemently hate all of that which is considered womanly, and maybe you’ll stand a chance against your audience. that’s... gen’s way of looking at it, at least. it’s not healthy, and gen realizes this by now, but so far it’s not caused too much of a hindrance on their life, save for all the girlfriends they can’t get because of their shitty misogynistic streak, so they’re not too bothered. i can promise you as they grow more comfortable with themselves, they will eventually drop their mean streak. i know gen’s been a misogynist for, like, two years now lmaooo ;-;

carlile - much like his mother, he’s extremely irresponsible. he forgets important dates, he often misplaces his belongings and the belongings of others, he can hardly be trusted to cook without forgetting the stove’s on then burning the house to the ground. he’s also rather bratty, especially when he’s hungry. idk i’m blanking on carlile honestly his toxic trait is being perfect <3

nikolai - he has a hard time establishing boundaries with others, so he often finds himself in situations he finds uncomfortable, merely because he can’t say no to anything. you can usually tell when he’s uncomfortable, as he wears the expression well on his face, but even then, he’ll bite his tongue and carry onwards. worst of all, though, he’ll be upset with you if you’re the one who suggested the plans, even if he’s the one who agreed to the situation despite not wanting to attend in the first place.

klaus - he doesn’t expect anything from anybody, and he feels that all people should feel this way about each other, as no expectations means no one can get hurt. this also means, however, that klaus’ effort put into everything he does is fairly low, and he doesn’t often impress people with his lazy, myopic attitude. he’s self-dependent to a fault, wanting to do most things by himself without considering the help of others, as he feels he’s the only one who should provide for himself. basically, he doesn’t accept “charity” from other people, and he thinks most people shouldn’t accept “charity” from others, either. very much a “pull yourself up by the bootstraps” kind of guy, which i consider toxic as fuck, so, like. :)

anastasia - she’s a lot like vlad; she feels her judgment is the best in most situations, and she feels she deserves to be in charge at all opportunities because of this. her confidence teeters on pride, and she often confuses the two and unknowingly comes across as arrogant and abrasive because of this. she trusts the abilities of others, it’s just that she believes she works the hardest and wants it the most, and this innate desire puts her above others. she’s also prone to fits of jealousy, especially over her friends, an attribute also lovingly instilled into her by her father :p if you so much as look at her best friends the wrong way, she will come for your throat as though she were some rabid dog, about to feast on her next meal. she’s loyal, yes, but loyalty doesn’t come without its faults; she’s quick to excuse her friends, even for truly heinous actions they provably committed, so long as she feels the intention is forgivable. her love and affection for other people blinds her, and often she’ll act in their best interest, even if that means being rude or aggressive towards others who go against them.

ilya - his toxic trait is that he’s never featured on this blog and idk what to do with him <3 his other toxic trait is that when hes a teen hes gonna commit arson. thats sooooo toxic

ok im gonna go through everyone else really quickly bc my fingers hurt HAHAHA ok lets speedrun this!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

bonnie - her toxic trait is that she thinks 50 shades of gray is legitimately a good book series. LMAOOOOOOOOOOOO

cooper - his toxic trait is that he smells so bad and he doesnt know why he uses soap and deodorant and bathes frequently hes just sweaty asf and you know what Me too king sweaty kings rise up

shivi - her toxic trait is that shes a barista at a coffee shop and she doesnt even like coffee. her other toxic trait is that she lowkey hates vampires :( and thats just rude asf

maeve - her toxic trait is that shes an apologist. she sees someone doing something terrible and shes like OKAY THEY DID THIS BAD THING BUT THEY’RE JUST TROUBLED IT’S NOT THEIR FAULT MAYBE I CAN FIX THEM!!!! like no bitch you cant

tarek - his toxic trait is NOTHING tarek is literally so perfect like he just wants to take care of his sick boyfriend and learn how to be a top tier witch like thats it? He doesnt deserve any slander bye

abigail - her toxic trait is that she’s SOOOOOO clingy to the point where like u guys can be in the same room but if you’re not looking at her rn while you two are in the same room together she’s like DO YOU HATE ME? like abbie please we dont hate u ur just being crazy rn. shes also extremely jealous and self-destructive so like if she feels like u are cheating on her she will FREAK OUT and ruin your relationship bc she doesn’t know how to effectively communicate her emotions and feels the need to lash out inexplicably at everything that triggers her </3 poor girl

karmen - her toxic trait is that she hides behind her humor and nonchalant persona to mask her emotions. she says it’s a coping mechanism, but the truth is, she refuses to meaningfully engage with these feelings, as they’re too uncomfortable for her, so she downplays her struggles with humor. she’s very much someone who acts as though she’s got it under control, even if the truth is, she’s struggling to stay afloat. her other toxic trait is that she will endanger her own internet safety it if means she can get a cute e-milf to send her money <3

caspian - he’s reserved to a fault, as though he’s physically unable to admit what’s troubling him. yet, when he speaks, you can always tell when there’s an issue. it’s always one of those things with him, where the emotion is too repressed to be articulated, yet too present to ignore. he’s so resistant to aid, he’d rather subject himself to terrible situations if it means denying help from another. often, he does this under the guise that he doesn’t wish to be a burden to others, therefore he must take care of himself without help, but he fails to realize that by not helping himself, he’s hurting his relationships around him, which burdens everyone. he’s deeply insecure, and he often weaponizes his insecurities, typically without meaning to. this manifests in a lot of self-deprecation, deflective language during arguments, ie “I’m the worst person ever, I wouldn’t blame you if you hated me after this,” which often comes off very manipulative. again, he doesn’t mean to sound manipulative, it’s just something that happens naturally, something he's gotta work towards alleviating.

vaughn - like caspian, he’s many emotions which are too strong to ignore, though too repressed to be expressed. this manifests primarily through vaughn’s financial immaturity and his promiscuity. he enjoys the physical pleasures of life, and he often abuses these luxuries as a way to distract himself from the very real pain he feels, pain he refuses to admit he harbors. so instead he sings his silly songs and spends his money recklessly and fucks everyone within a thirty mile radius to distract himself from the void in his chest :\

wolfgang - he’s basically an incel LMAOOOOOOO or like what do they call an incel who larps as a normal person to pick up woman? a pick up artist i think? hes that LMAO hes quite literally in the incel community is what im trying to say. i havent talked about it yet but its literally a plot point. if you look in my brainstorm sheet rn it says “Wolfgang munch reads incelme forums every day. Wolfgang munch thinks j*rdan peters*n is the leading figurehead in the hall of intelligentsia.” so like yeah

#Anonymous #jade answers #this was so fun to answer LMAOOO #ive thought about the vlad/brie codependency lore for EVER now so im happy i finally have a context where i can talk about it lmaooooo #ugh i love making weird toxic hcs for my ocs <3 i love it when my ocs do bad things <3 #straud asks

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biofunmy · 5 years

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J.J. Abrams: Even Giant Event Movies Aren’t a Given at the Box Office

If you’re doing a project about the future of movies, you’ve got to talk to J.J. Abrams, whose television shows and blockbuster movies — including two “Star Wars” and two “Star Trek” films — have always had a futuristic bent. What does he think the movie industry will look like in 10 years? “What will be fascinating is to see how suddenly thousands of hours of media and hundreds of new shows will need to be created just to feed the beast of streaming services,” he said. Here are edited excerpts from our conversation.

Can you sense the inflection point the industry is in right now?

For a long time, people have been saying the business is changing, but that’s undeniable now. It’s on, it is changing. The way people consume content, the different methods of distribution, the idea that many people will be watching [a large-format movie] on a screen that is around the size of a frame of the film you’re shooting — it’s crazy!

Some people think we’re heading for a future where the only films that get theatrical distribution are huge-budget tentpole films and low-cost genre films. Would you agree?

When you have a movie that’s as entertaining, well-made and well-received as “Booksmart” not doing the business it should have, it really makes you realize that the typical Darwinian fight to survive is completely lopsided now. I think everyone’s trying to figure out how we protect the smaller films that aren’t four-quadrant mega-releases. Can they exist in the cinemas?

Though I’ve obviously been involved in so many big franchises that pre-existed me, I feel like it’s really important for movies to thrive in the way we all want them to, we have to find ways to get people into theaters for movies other than the giant event movies. Not that those are a given either, by the way! That’s something that’s been on my mind lately.

Over the next 10 years, do you expect a lot of change to the theatrical window, the length of time a movie stays in theaters before its home release?

The window will naturally shrink. Part of that is that when consumers want something, they find a way to get it. You can’t put the genie back in the bottle. It seems like leaving money on the table if there are people who might pay a premium to see a movie but they can’t get out of the house or get a babysitter, and it seems crazy to not give audiences the movies they want to see when they can.

I know we’ve become increasingly accustomed to being connected to people that you’re nowhere near, but people have an intrinsic need to have actual experiences and come together. As someone who’s optimistic about moviegoing, I don’t think that goes away.

With Apple, Disney and a host of other big companies about to enter the streaming business, how will the movie business change to accommodate them?

It’s hard to know exactly how it’s all going to work, and I think these companies are all trying to figure it out themselves. The optimist in me says hopefully there will be a chance for storytellers and filmmakers of all backgrounds to have shots at telling their stories who might not have otherwise. The pessimist in me says there’s going to be so much real estate that there’s going to be a lot of landfill — stuff that might not be worth everyone’s time. But I think the optimist wins this one.

Because audiences are so demanding and smart, they’re not going to put up with junk. The demand for innovative, new young storytellers is going to be high, and as uncertain as everything is, there’s probably never been a better time to be a creative person in this business, just because of the near-term demand for programming. It’s going to require great stories for these platforms to survive, so that people become not just subscribers but loyal subscribers.

Are we starting to see a permanent shift when it comes to diversity onscreen?

Increasing the pool to include more people of color and of diverse backgrounds and sexual orientations is only good for business. When we were casting “Force Awakens,” it was really important to us that the movie looked more like the way the world looks than not. It’s not that there should be any quota — you should be only casting the best people for the roles — and yet, I think the audience does value the effort to go beyond the usual suspects.

Audiences are so sophisticated now in terms of process and story, you can’t fool people the way you used to be able to. People can get a sense of what was the corporate decision and what was the creative decision. I think we all have to work harder because audiences demand more, and rightfully so.

What helped prompt your awakening on this?

This is something that my wife, Katie, and I have been thinking about for a long time. Years ago, we were looking around the room at the Emmys, and it was essentially all white people in the room. It felt strange for this medium that’s meant to be accessible to everyone and tell stories that represent and entertain everyone in the country, to see that the vast majority of the people there were white. I mean, it was a little bit shocking to even consider it.

We started asking ourselves why, and we realized the system we inherited was one where you get your list of directors, writers, or actors and they’re all kind of the same list. We said to the agencies that we want the lists to look like the country. Does it take more effort? It does, but it felt foolish to do anything else.

What are some specific instances where that approach has had an effect on your movies?

We were doing this little horror movie called “Overlord,” we found this actor we really liked for the lead role who happened to be black, Jovan Adepo. He’s very talented, but we were told by various people that there were no black men in the military division we were telling our story about — yet this is a movie about zombies in World War II. There were no zombies in World War II either! So we cast him, and he was fantastic.

For me, opening up the pool of people is the absolute least we can be doing to make our stories more interesting. If the group of people that you’re working with only look like you, you’re failing before you start. I think audiences deserve points of view that aren’t so myopic.

Sahred From Source link Arts

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onlinemarketingcourses · 5 years

Text

A primer to forecasting the value of SEO

If there’s one thing that’s universally accepted, it’s that the results of SEO are unpredictable.

However, as more investment is made into the channel, we’re being put under increasing pressure to be performance-driven (and show the value we can drive “up front”) in the same way, our paid counterparts have been for some time.

Invariably, this means setting targets and being held accountable for whether we hit them or not. But this shouldn’t be an issue and in fact, I believe it’s completely possible, with the right caveats and education, for SEO to become a results-led channel. And ultimately, if we’re going to continue to grow in popularity (and see further investment), we need to be.

Measure the right things

For a long time, SEOs have talked about “improving keyword rankings”, with the coveted number one spot on a high traffic term, being the primary focus for many marketers. In 2019, however, this approach is myopic. I’m not ruling out rankings entirely, they still have value, but promoting the idea that a small, well-backed site, can outperform a titan like Amazon, Compare The Market, or RightMove for a competitive term, is unrealistic. Moreover, the resources required to do this could be better spent driving change elsewhere and this is why it’s important to measure the right things.

For forecasts, I typically look at three metrics: traffic, conversions, and revenue, with the former holding the most importance.

My reasoning – While you may receive a significant amount of new traffic from a high-value term, but (more often than not), the traffic will not be as qualified, lowering the “true value”. Used as a vehicle to drive wider site change, SEO. However, it should build results across your businesses search landscape as a whole and this can only really be measured through increased traffic (and from this, we can work out conversion and revenue increases).

But traffic isn’t a “clean” metric either and can be influenced through changes in the market, wider media activity, competitors, or even the weather. For this reason, many look to derive a “growth factor” or absolute increase figure from keyword gains, basing the output of expected traffic from changes in position (and the clicks received from this). This is an approach we’ll discuss shortly and certainly can give an indication of any potential performance gains, but its reliance on keyword data still provides a few flaws.

Put this into context

A key point to make with any forecast is that it is a projection, based on factors that we believe we can predict with varying degrees of certainty. Apple cannot provide an exact figure to shareholders, for the total number of new iPhones they will sell; nor can Disney foresee the specific number of tickets the next Star Wars film will sell. This context is important, given the unpredictable nature of search marketing.

I think we often lose ourselves in trying too hard to be accurate, that we miss the point of a forecast altogether, it’s an indication, not a definitive statement of growth that could be achieved, linked to the investment that is made. So it’s perfectly fine to caveat as such and represent any figures as non-binding. I personally use a “percentage certainty” score depending on my experience of rolling out specific activities (and their impact), which is often well received.

Importantly and as a key takeaway for this section, you need to put your data into perspective.

If you’re required to project the impact of a minor change perhaps to help and IT prioritize their development queue it may be more realistic to provide a percentage range instead of a specific number. So long as the methodology and your explanation of how this could come to be are logical and data-driven. Ultimately, a forecast is only as reliable as the data and the experiences of the person making it.

Projecting growth (or not)

In terms of working out the specific figures, each SEO has their own methodology, but broadly speaking, these can be grouped into three:

1. “Experience-based gut feel”

This kind of forecast draws on the expertise of the individual and can be a useful, “quick and simple” guideline for making snap decisions. The reliability of the projection is intrinsically linked to the knowledge of the person making it and shouldn’t be utilized in any official capacity or to make business-critical decisions. But this is not to say that this type of prediction isn’t valuable, it just depends on the use case and context the forecast is being made under.

2. “Ranking-focused click curves”

This uses ranking data to project an increase in keyword position over time (and the value from this). In my experience, many “off the shelf” forecasting tools use this method, which relies on modeling traffic based on click-through rates from ranking positions. More advanced studies might include competition or seasonality factors (perhaps from Google’s Keyword Planner) and may provide the output as either a total growth figure or shown by month using a compound growth rate or more complex increase curve.

3. “Traffic-based growth modeling”

This is, in my view, the most accurate way to forecast and frequently uses historic traffic data to predict the impact of not carrying out SEO activity, taking the market impact, seasonal changes, and other factors into account, and estimating projected increases from this. It’s often incredibly difficult to perfect and typically requires the help of a data scientist. But, if executed correctly, this methodology can provide a good representation of the impact your proposed activity can make.

A side note: In many scenarios, you may expect to see an increase in traffic predicted over your time period. However, SEO takes time and doesn’t often conform to the pre-set timelines of a campaign or contract. As such, it may be that a true forecast may not show immediate growth or even (if your site is following a downward trajectory) no increase at all.

The key takeaway here is that without the activity, you may be in a much worse place that you are predicted, and no growth doesn’t necessarily mean no value.

However, at their heart, each of the above methods still requires an expert to assess the types of changes you are intending to make and their impact. This must be someone with enough experience of the channel to understand how the different projects will move the needle, in the context of your site’s situation.

There’s no “official view” of how search activities will impact your performance and opinions may differ between experts. Moreover, the value of each work-stream will likely change by industry (or even by the query) and this is an important context to keep in mind when discussing targets and key performance indicators.

Evaluate objectively

So far, we’ve discussed context, measurement, and methodology.

As such, in this whistle-stop tour of forecasting, it would be a missing piece not to touch on evaluating performance and targets. As I mentioned in the last section, SEO takes time and we’ve already established that it’s highly unpredictable. So, holding it to the same degree of accountability as other channels may be unhelpful. Importantly, performance needs to be a two-way and open conversation between your expert and your business (as it’s impacted by many different factors); in my experience, continuing with this approach throughout the completion of a strategy and into the evaluation process is the best way ensure you’re driving the most value from the channel.

There’s no official blueprint or road-map to SEO success and it’s highly likely you’ll try things that do not work and others that exceed expectations. Not every fluctuation in traffic or missed target (or over-achievement) for that matter is due to performance and your expert should be able to explain why this is the case. Deviations do not always mean the model is off either; remember, in an SEO forecast, you’re ultimately asking your expert to predict not only the direction of a constantly evolving algorithm but changes to market demand and the world you operate within. It’s not a coincidence that many of us become futurists!

To sum up, predicting SEO results can be very hard but is a challenge we must seek to solve if we are to take the channel to the next level within digital marketing teams. A prediction may use a data-driven methodology, but is still essentially the view of a specialist, based on their experience of the search landscape. Not all forecasts will show growth and not all targets will be hit, this shouldn’t be seen as an issue as long as the reasoning behind this can be explained.

Ric Rodriguez is an SEO Director and winner of the 2018 Drum Search Award. He can be found on Twitter @RicRodriguez_UK.

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