#anyone who thinks like this i feel like youre those people on twitter who r like 'u should never vent to ur friends or be there for them' | Explore Tumblr Posts and Blogs

tocomplainfriend · 20 days

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Please don't dismiss the voices of SA victims who fundamentally disagree with you. Please raise their voices the same way you would raise others, and treat their experiences as being just as valid and worthy of discussion as the people who find Val to be completely horrid. Frankly, were you to be *against* the idea of doing that, it would communicate to me that your whole shtick isn't actually about SA victims, it's about you feeling vindicated in your personal discomfort. Yes. There are people who dislike it for justifiable reasons and they deserve to have their voices heard. But please don't ignore those that have a differing opinion, and make sweeping, general statements. If you really care about people, you would do that.

TW: Rape, SA

I hope you understand the reason I post so much about the topic negatively. It's because I'm a victim of SA, and I don't like much about how this was treated. Mainly negative things because: Viv didn't take anything any SA victim said that was negative-towards her own show, like always. I saw my position in the matter greatly underrepresented, and that's why I type it all here. I saw plenty of people on Twitter that took the scene as a good representation and that they felt seen- and that's always great. Everyone need to heal and fell seen. How everyone was sharing how they felt 'in a positive light'- I felt I could write how I felt 'in a negative light' cause that's just as fair.

Also, if you realized what I have types over MULTIPLE post know, I don't even talk about the inside episode 4- mostly about the surrounding treatment.

If you think Angel is relatable and healing for your or others experiences, cool. Amazing, good for you! It's not for me and others, tho, mainly for things outside the episodes or scenes of Angel - Val. I have written about the things that me and others find criticizable- like the r-pe jokes in HB or HH. Why would you try to write respectfully all of episode 4 to then to a r-pe joke to Sir Pent in episode 6? See that isn't even about Angel or Val.

My last few posts aren't even about the writing of the show. But fandom stuff mainly. I have talked about how people treat Val like an uwu baby over the actual topic of R-pe and SA. I have talked about not liking that poison was directed by a NON SA victim with a r-pe fetish, redoing his own fan ship comics inside the show. Or the many other R-pe jokes inside Helluva and Hazbin that I feel take away from the serious message from episode 4.

My old post:

I'm talking about how I feel, yes! I'm an SA victim and I feel different than you or others. Never said that those people to fuck off- Its just not a view a share- at all. I never ignored anyone with a different opinion- I have purely communicated how I FELT AS A SA victim-mainly about the surrounding content of the situation. This is my blog where I post what I think. Post how you feel, this is how i feel.

(Weird timing maybe, but I thought I would've gotten a message like this after my earlier posts of Angel or Val or the Raph ones. But the most recent post is about someone crying cause someone else wanted a fictional r-pist character to die, LMAO. But maybe bad timing with the message, so whatever)

(BTW if you are an Anon I don't accept double message, because I can't confirm it's the same person!)

#vivziepop critical #hazbin hotel critical #helluva boss critique #vivziepop critique #hazbin hotel critique #tw sa #tw rape

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rainbowsky · 9 months

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hi rainbowsky, love your blog and your very articulate and sane view of things. It’s been very calming and comforting when there’s so much noise (and hate) in the world. So, thank you!

Curious your take on wyb wearing a bandana hanging from his left belt hook, at the Shu Uemura event today. And not a designer bandana, like the Chanel one he had on his backpack on recent trip to Japan.

I immediately thought of 1970s San Francisco gay culture, men would signal their orientation by hanging them from left side, right side, back pocket (L/R). Not thinking too much about color significance since red is Shu Uemura’s brand color. I don’t know anything about the new ad campaign he’s doing with them, but 1970 and 1971 were on 2 posters behind where he was seated.

It just flashed on me so I’d thought I’d ask. 🧐 🤡

Hi Hellopedey! Thanks, I'm glad you're enjoying my blog! 😊

Inquiring minds want to know: is DD trying to signal to the world that he wants to stick his fist up their ass for Shu Uemura?

You aren't the only person to take note of this. I've seen people mentioning hanky code in the tags of reblogs of my post of the photos from that event, and I've seen people talking about it on Twitter, too. It's become quite a topic since the event.

This is a question that has come up a few times in the past, but alas - it's often impossible to find old posts on Tumblr, so rather than being able to point to my previous post about it I will just re-answer.

Fake, fan fiction, CPN.

Long story short: I don't believe for one hot second that DD is using hanky code. There are a lot of reasons I feel this way, and I'll get to that in a minute, but the number one thing I want to bring home for people is that:

Everyone is allowed to wear hankies without assumptions being made about their sexual activity/preferences.

Including you, Hellopedey, and every other reader. Maybe that's not as much of a relief to some readers as it would be to those who happen to be queer and heavily sexualized by others, but it should take a load off some minds. 😅

You know that old saying, "Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar*?" Well, sometimes a hanky is just a hanky. I'd go so far as to say that a hanky is almost always just a hanky. Even if worn by a gay man.

*Incorrectly attributed to Freud, the origin of that quote is actually unknown.

Here are just a few reasons it's obvious to me DD isn't signalling (and I can't believe I have to say this, because it seems obvious to me):

Location, location, location. Please remember that hanky code is used when people are looking for sex. DD is at a brand event. He's not looking for sex.

His outfit is likely put together by a stylist, and that stylist is unlikely to be trying to hook him up with people for sex.

Hanky code isn't much of a Thing with young people these days. There's no need for it, since now all anyone needs to do to hook up with someone based on preferences is tick off a few boxes on Grindr or other apps (even in China).

Hanky code is pretty Western-centric. It's unclear whether it's even used in China.

As was discussed in the notes, bandanas are popular in hip hop fashion and in other fashion styles DD often wears.

Hankies are a very widely/wildly popular fashion accessory worn by people from all walks of life. Both GG and DD have worn hankies a lot, including for their fabulous Happy Camp dance, and in this context, it really is just a fashion accessory.

I'm going to say this as gently as possible, because I get it that people are just being clueless and oblivious, and that they don't intend to offend, but it really tweaks something in me as a gay person that so many fans are casually willing to make the assumption that DD is sexually signalling at work.

This goes back to the whole oversexualization in the fandom thing that I often lament.

I think fans - especially turtles - get so used to scrutinizing everything for signs and signals of GG and DD's sexual and romantic proclivities that common sense and GGDD's basic humanity are often overlooked. Fans could also stand to do a bit more to reflect on how their behavior and attitudes might (unintentionally) come across as offensive and homophobic* to queer people.

*Not saying this is where you were coming from, Hellopedey, but I hope all fans will reflect on it.

Please read this post for more info on that, because it's important.

PS] For those looking for something salacious about GG and DD, how about checking out the lyrics for the song they danced together to on Happy Camp? That's a pretty racy song for a couple of 'straight' guys to be dancing together to. 😅

#bjyx #yizhan #lgbtpride #ggdd in the public eye #some guys are not straight guys #ask

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darisu-chan · 9 months

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I was using my personal Twitter (or I guess X now) account that has nothing about B//leach on it, and I still saw tweets calling us IRs toxic and the worst part of the fandom, and I just remembered the terrible messages I got for years just for liking IR

The reason why I saw it was someone else saying that they still didn’t animate R//enji in that scene where R//ukia thinks about other people but him, which I found it weird back then myself how she never really gave all that much thought to him, and seemed annoyed by him. I know many IRs hate him, but as someone who was back then a huge R//enji fan I still found it weird how one sided a lot of that relationship seemed. That’s why I stopped shipping them. I shipped R//enruki before I even shipped IR, but I have no proof bc I wasn’t in B//leach spaces when I first read the manga, if anyone wonders.

It’s still weird to me how I just can’t enjoy my ship in peace without seeing something online about the fans/my ship outside of Tumblr or even my fan account on Twitter (which I no longer use for this reason)

Like I just see all these amazing people I’ve met in my years in the fandom painted as the bad guy, even when they were there for me during some of my worst moments or even recently to just say “I’m so sorry for your loss” after a post I made, and I just feel powerless. And I know now in anime history we’re gonna be remembered as shitty people and not as some of the most creative people I know, and honestly we put more thought in our analysis than K//ubo himself probably did, all because of a ship.

I rue the day when the ships became canon instead of simply, everyone just staying friends and not having time skips that added nothing to the story except some weird analogy with the first chapter, that made 0 sense as an allusion bc the kids don’t even look that much like the parent they’re supposedly alluding too, and then the story never continued

I tried to be happy for finally seeing Kia’s bankai animated but I’m just sad that I can’t escape the hellhole that is B//leach

I adored most of the characters and the story and it got me through tough times as a teen/young adult, but after everything, yeah, I’m not ashamed to say I care for about 4 or 5 characters and their interactions and I don’t want to even watch the anime ever again or have got to do anything with other work by K//ubo. The fandom just makes me sad. Not even mad. Just sad. Like I wasted 8 years of my life liking something I can now only relate to the people who hurt rewriting history and coming of as victims

Idk if some of you have seen those tweets and I’m gonna assume tiktoks, but if you guys are just as tired as I am, I’m here for you

#ichiruki #I didn’t know how else to tag it

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alexstorm · 11 months

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But the fact that she deleted everything means that she somehow didn't want people to know about her life before Alex since she was a stalker obsessed with him. She was pissed off at a couple of fans at the time and I think because she knew people would find everything // to recap the timeline: in July 2018 she posted that picture of him sitting on the stairs on her stories and wrote “sunshine, sunshine..” (no idea how people found that, anyone know?) her friend marie also had posted that video of her running backstage. Both their accounts were public. I remember in September people were discussing if she’s his new girlfriend and some didn’t believe it. So she had about at least two months to delete her posts, like that #wouldyoumarryme post. Or her Twitter, or her Pinterest. But not only she didn’t do it, she even went to the UK shows and posted videos of them performing R U mine and wrote “I’m yours” 🤐 let’s not forget she even still followed Alexa back then. Do you think this is someone who wanted to be private and was upset about fans finding out? She wanted people to find out. She wanted everyone to know that she’s the new gf and Taylor is gone, as if it’s a competition and she’s achieved something to be proud of. My guess is she actually wanted people to see those posts, or at least didn’t have a problem, but she never thought she’d receive backlash or that people would see her past racist and rape joke likes and stuff. Maybe she also didn’t think people would speculate about the cheating and create a timeline post. Also I feel like those “just fucked” or “baby is back..” posts (which seems like a hint at Taylor’s 2015 birthday post) might’ve been misleading. Maybe she never knew him before (less likely) or knew him but didn’t meet at that time and only posted stuff like that so people would go through her insta and know that she knew him, who knows maybe she even wanted everyone to know that he preferred her and left his gf to be with her. Doesn’t she have like a diary or something to document her “just fucked” and “baby is back” moments instead of a public page? She’s a horrible person and she’d do everything she’s done all over again if she had to, but people are like “aww she apologized she’s a nice person now nobody’s perfect blah blah”

☝🏻👏🏻☝🏻

#Louise Verneuil #The Turner Girlfriends Club

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5sosfanfictioncatalogue · 8 months

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Top!Luke Masterlist

7-Eleven (ao3) - iCheeseYou (EHkook) Luke/Ashton T, 74k

Summary: Ashton Irwin is a master of thievery. He steals from general stores, food markets, jewelry shops, museums, and people's homes. Never once did he get caught nor did anyone find out his identity. He loves being a thief. Stealing is his addiction, and he has no intention on curing it.

However, there is one place and one place alone that he does not steal from, and that's the 7-Eleven at the corner street. He goes in late at night to buy things for himself and to see a boy who works during that time named Luke Hemmings.

Better Than FIFA? (ao3) - emiliathegreat (puckdummy) Michael/Luke E, 2k

Summary: Hotel nights on tour are usually a blessing, but with all the shit Luke's been facing lately, it's exactly the opposite. Michael isn't one to help, either.

black is the colour (of my true love's hair) (ao3) - hemmingscliffords Michael/Luke E, 2k

Summary: His eyes graze over Luke's ash blonde hair, the multitude of colours from various batches of highlights that their stylists have given him over the past year, the butterscotch coloured roots that are growing in from not upkeeping it, and out of nowhere Michael thinks that holy shit, Luke would look awesome with black hair. Maybe an ebony colour that had a midnight blue washed through it.

Burned By Love (ao30 - JcLoveex (orphan_account) Luke/Ashton T, 3k

Summary: "I don't think you do babe, I think you're lying." Luke smirked lightly, even though his pants were so fucking tight. "Are you lying Ashton? You don't want me to fuck you, you want that guy to fuck you don't you? You want him to spread you open and fuck you senseless don't you? Want him to eat your ass and call you those names you love so much while you ride his tongue, don't you Ash?"

Or the one where Luke has to remind Ashton who he belongs to.

Club of Misfits (ao3) - felixandtae Luke/Ashton, Michael/Calum T, 274k

Summary: ❝Everyone has flaws. You me, Michael and Ashton - we’re all just a club of misfits.❞

A club for those who need a friend created by two best friends.

Daisy (ao3) - boomerluke Luke/Ashton M, 121k

Summary: The last thing Luke expects when he wakes up hungover in the bed of his latest one-night stand is to come face to face with a freaking kid. But there she is all wild curls, thumb-sucking, and nonstop questions. Luke can't get out of there fast enough.

Ashton isn't the type to have one-night stands. He's a parent, after all. It was a mistake, and it won't happen again. At least that's what he tells himself when he comes back from his shower to find the naked college kid still in his bed, arguing with Daisy.

They couldn't be more opposites. At 25, Ashton has the responsibilities of two parents, raising his daughter and trying to pretend like he has everything figured out. At 21, Luke is a self-proclaimed Grindr god who doesn't care about anyone or anything but himself. So why is the universe (with the help of Michael and Crystal) so hell-bent on seeing them together?

do it better (ao3) - lourrygum OT4 N/R, 8k

Summary: takes place during the time michael lost his passport and was stuck in the US while his band performed in the UK. He feels upset about it and stops answering their calls and may or may not unfollow them on twitter, leading to questions and anxiety.

or, 3/4 of 5sos go to the US to see michael and end up fucking him senseless.

English Love Affair (ao3) - takeitoffhemmo Michael/Luke, Calum/Ashton E, 21k

Summary: Where Luke can't write an essay and maybe falls in love with his sort of tutor

FutureSex/LoveSounds (ao3) - Migs Luke/Calum, Michael/Luke, Calum/Ashton E, 47k

Summary: Luke is Med student/camboy with a crush on the Footie captain with a secret.

OR: Cake have a lot of hot sex for money whilst trying to pursue romantic relationships with other boys.

i think they're cute, though (ao3) - cliffakitten Luke/Ashton E, 2k

Summary: Honestly, there should be some kind of warning for shit like this: Your amazing, adorable boyfriend has recently bought glasses and looks fit as fuck, you're going to want to do unspeakable, dirty things to him. Please attempt to control your imminent hard on. -- Or Ashton has new glasses and Luke really wants to fuck him in them.

No Chance (ao3) - iCheeseYou (EHkook) Michael/Luke T, 72k

Summary: So Ashton's going on a road trip with his friend, Calum, and he invited me to tag along. Being the adventurous shit I am, I said yes, but I wouldn't have if I knew that Luke Hemmings was going as well. God, I hate that guy, and the feeling's mutual. Why does that annoying brat have to come along? And Ashton and Calum expect us to be friends? Yeah, right. There's no chance that Luke Hemmings and I, Michael Clifford, are ever going to get along.

passionately curious (ao3) - cliffakitten Luke/Ashton E, 17k

Summary: 'Luke Hemmings'

At this, he nearly choked for the second time that morning, since he just happened to know someone with that name. That someone being, his next door neighbour, the very hot neighbour, who Ashton may or may not have a huge crush on.

Yeah, that Luke Hemmings. Who apparently orders sex toys online...who knew? Definitely not Ashton.

Princess getting naked (ao3) - ShortIsNotFun Luke/Ashton, Michael/Calum N/R, 6k

Summary: Luke hemmings was the boy everyone wanted and that was obvious. Any time he walked in a room all eyes were on him and he loved it, loved the attention. But he never gave anyone his attention for more than maybe five minutes before he ruled them out as utterly dull and walked away, he simply got bored of everyone quickly. Except for the one boy who never seemed to notice him, the boy who seemed clueless. Ashton Irwin.

Luke's kind of a dick and Ashton sucks his

Reflections (ao3) - punchinginadream Luke/Ashton M, 4k

Summary: Ashton doesn't like his body. Luke decides to fuck him in front of a mirror to show him how beautiful he really is.

Requited (ao3) - orphan_account Luke/Ashton E, 18k

Summary: "You’re the prettiest boy in the whole wide world, don’t you know that?”

Surprisingly, Ashton giggles a little. “There are at least a gazillion people in the world, Lukey… you haven’t seen all of them.”

“I don’t need to,” Luke insists with a shrug. “You’re prettier than all of them, I just know it. And even when you’re sad, you’re still the prettiest to me.”

Or, Ashton just wants to be pretty. Luke shows him that he already is.

The best kind of trouble (ao3) - CliffordAffliction Michael/Luke E, 71k

Summary: After Michael is sent to a strict Preparatory school he meets the school troublemaker, Luke Hemmings, and his world begins to change

The Bodyguard (ao3) - iCheeseYou (EHkook) Luke/Ashton, Michael/Calum M, 138k

Summary: Ashton Irwin is a hot and famous celebrity that all the people love, look up to, or despise. He's cocky, selfish, and always puts himself before others. Despite his personality, he's pretty much wanted by everyone in the world.

But when things escalate to the point that Ashton nearly gets kidnapped, his manager assigns a boy named Luke Hemmings to become Ashton's personal bodyguard, much to the star's reluctance and annoyance.

Now Luke follows Ashton wherever he goes to make sure he's safe from any danger, but Ashton is determined to get rid of his bodyguard as soon as possible.

Without You (ao3) - ofmonstersandmayhem Luke/Ashton, Michael/Calum M, 67k

Summary: Nothing made Ashton happy anymore.

He was slowly drifting away.

Everyday he prayed for a savior. He had the tiniest sliver of hope in the back of his mind that someone would come and save him from all this darkness.

His prayers were answered in the form of a tall blonde boy with a lip ring. But was he able to save Ashton in time?

(or the cliche fic where Ashton's depressed with an abusive father but when Luke Hemmings moves into the neighborhood, his dark clouds open up to reveal a sunshine)

#5sosfanfictioncatalogue #5sos fanfic #luke hemmings #top!luke #top!luke masterlist #masterlists #smut #sex tw

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alucardsspouse · 1 year

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Antoine de Sade NSFW alphabet (all in one/last alphabet) ❄️💋

A = Aftercare (What they’re like after sex)

He might look careless most of the time but he can be really polite when it comes to treating their partner with care.

B = Body Part (Their favorite body part of theirs and also their partners) He absolutely loves his hands, he knows the power they hold and loves to nibble on his partners neck, licking it and sucking it.

C = Cum (Anything to do with cum, basically)

Oh god, he cums and when he does it’s a mess, he is an absolute cream pie lover.

D = Dirty Secret (Pretty self-explanatory, a dirty secret of theirs) He enjoys seeing his partner cry and beg for more.

E = Experience (How experienced are they? Do they know what they’re doing?)He definitely knows what he is doing better than anyone, he has been with people before but just for sex encounters and nothing serious.

F = Favorite Position (This goes without saying)

He likes to go in many different positions and challenges himself to do the most he can in one go.

G = Goofy (Are they more serious in the moment? Are they humorous? etc.) he tends to have a sad as side during sex.

H = Hair (How well-groomed are they? Does the carpet match the drapes? etc.)

Just like his long beautiful hair, he keeps his pubes not too long but well groomed and pretty.

I = Intimacy (How are they during the moment? The romantic aspect.)

He can get really romantic and this can be even manipulative for his part.

J = Jack off (Masturbation Headcanon)

He masturbates often, when he is alone or bored.

K = Kink (One or more of their kinks) He is part of the Sade family and just like his sisters he has that sadistic side, definitely a dom with a blood kink or a knife kink.

L = Location (Favorite places to do the do)

He likes to do it everywhere he cans, does not care for the privacy as long as he can do it.

M = Motivation (What turns them on, gets them going)

Basically all your pretty moans and compliments, he really likes it, (praise kink)

N = No (Something they wouldn’t do, turn offs)

I don’t think he would say no to trying something new, at least sex wise.

O = Oral (preference in giving or receiving, skill, etc.)

He loves receiving oral as much as he loves giving it.

P = Pace (Are they fast and rough? Slow and sensual? etc.)

He can adjust to the pace he feels suits his partner better, tends to be rough tho.

Q = Quickie (Their opinions on quickies, how often, etc.)

He loves them,wants them all the time.

R = Risk (Are they game to experiment? Do they take risks? etc.) he likes to take risks and experiment always.

S = Stamina (How many rounds can they go for? How long do they last?) He is a vampire and as we know their stamina is always superior to humans (*flushes*)

T = Toys (Do they own toys? Do they use them? On a partner or themselves?)

He does own some toys but nothing to flashy, some wips, cuffs and stuff.

U = Unfair (How much they like to tease)

Oh god he is such a tease, but when he gives you your release it’s all worth it.

V = Volume (How loud they are, what sounds they make, etc.)

He likes to moan and groan loud, never caring about the volume or who is listening.

W = Wild Card (A random headcanon for the character)

He has a sex dungeon (ik)

X = X-ray (Let’s see what’s going on under those clothes)

He has a solid 7 inch beautiful cock.

Y = Yearning (How high is their sex drive?)

This man is horny 24/7 what can I say.

Z = Zzz (How quickly they fall asleep afterward)

Will fall asleep quickly if he is exhausted or just because of boredom lol

Btw I’m going on a permanent hiatus so you can follow my Twitter account @draculasspouse

#vnc fanfic #vanitas no carte #vanitas no shuki #antoine de sade #Spotify

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nostalgebraist · 2 years

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more on metaculus' badness

@dubreus replied to your post “IDK who needs to hear this, but Metaculus is...”:

yes, but because the rewards are fairly immaterial, it selects for a community who wants to forecast for its own sake. the randos on metaculus are not your usual randos

I don't get what you mean by "because the rewards are fairly immaterial."

Isn't that also true of twitter polls? Yet they attract randos.

It wouldn't be true of a real prediction market, but if anything, I'd expect fewer "randos" on account of it.

That aside, I don't find this kind of defense reassuring w/r/t the trustworthiness of Metaculus.

A lot of my beef with Metaculus is, in fact, precisely this -- that if you ask "why would I trust it?", the answer is some contingent fact about the demographics of the userbase at some point in time, rather than any structural feature of the platform itself.

Making good forecasts is hard. If you want to say you can make good forecasts, you should be able to tell me what mechanism you're using to make the forecasts good. You should have a hypothesis: "if I do X, I'll get good forecasts," and then when I ask, you point to how you're doing X.

Real prediction markets have such a hypothesis. Their X mechanism may have flaws, but it's perfectly clear what it is and why someone might expect it to help.

But what is Metaculus' hypothesis? Its "X"? Based on what the platform actually does as a piece of software, one might guess:

"We will put polls about the future on the internet. The polls are opt-in and anyone can vote on whichever ones they feel like at any time. This will produce good forecasts."

But this is obvious nonsense -- consider the case of twitter polls -- so that can't be it.

We can then observe that "the randos on metaculus are not your usual randos," which gets us something like

"We will put polls about the future on the internet. The polls are opt-in and anyone can vote on whichever ones they feel like at any time. We will advertise these polls to the kind of people we think are smart. This will produce good forecasts."

But this still isn't a trustworthy mechanism! Even if the users on Metaculus right now happen to be smart on average, or good at forecasting on average, that's a historical accident -- there is no feature of the Metaculus platform that guarantees this, or even makes it more likely.

I am asked to take it on faith that the savviness of the userbase has not gotten worse this year than it was last year -- or that the users voting on some particular question are about as savvy as those voting on a typical question. If one of these things weren't true, I would have no way to tell until after I've used the forecast and gotten burned.

Among other things, this means Metaculus is exactly the kind of thing that the original formulation of Goodhart's Law was about:

Any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes.

The "good demographics" of Metaculus are reliable only so long as no one cares too much about the answers. Once the answers start to have an effect on anything, there is an incentive to vote so as to steer that effect in a desired direction.

And Metaculus has no immune system against this. If a bunch of newbies come in and vote on one question in a politically motivated manner, this is the system working as intended. The "Metaculus community" is just whoever shows up. The people who, in actual fact, show up -- savvy or not, politically motivated or not -- are the Metaculus community, by definition.

----

The opt-in nature of the individual polls exacerbates this problem.

Things would be very different if being a "Metaculus forecaster" were a sort of membership with conditions, where you had to vote on every question to stay in the group. That would impose a kind of coherence across questions: if many users feel unqualified to voice opinions on a particular question, that will show up as an unusually broad forecast, and the fact that it is broader than the others will mean the thing it appears to mean. You would be comparing fractions with the same denominator.

But as it is, people can vote on just whatever. Sometimes 1000 people have voted on one question, and only 100 on a very similar question (or a question conditional on the other). These are not two opinions voiced by one "community," and nothing forces them to cohere. So it is very hard to generalize from facts about one question (or the aggregate over questions) to some other question. Knowing that "Metaculus" got one thing right, or got things right on average, tells me little about any other one of its opinions, because "Metaculus" is a different person every time they say something.

----

One particular form of this pathology involves changes in the forecasts over time.

Not only is there a different "community" for every question, there is a different "community" for each question at each point in time.

Changes in a forecast can reflect the same forecasters registering new predictions, but they can also reflect new people coming in and registering first-time predictions with different statistics.

It's tempting to look at those graphs and think "Metaculus changed its mind, it must have done so on the basis of new evidence" (and I see people do this all the time). But it also changes the graph if different people respond to the same evidence.

So these moves have no useful interpretation whatsoever: all they tell you is that that there was a change in the average over whoever showed up. If the change happened because the question got on Hacker News and that drove first-time votes from a bunch of relatively low-information users . . . then, again, this is the intended behavior of the system. The Metaculus "community" is whoever showed up, at each place and time, and never anything besides.

----

@dubreus also said:

i also think you're underselling the part where there's a commitment to *checking* whether the question ended up happening, a 6-year 1,000 question track record of doing so, and the part where even the top ranked forecasters have similar accuracy to the "dumb community median of randos"

Again, the "anything goes" methodology really limits my willingness to draw any conclusions from this.

Metaculus does have a page where you can review how well it did, in aggregate, over . . . the questions it decided to ask itself.

But "the questions Metaculus decides to ask itself" is not a natural category, and the questions are chosen so whimsically and unsystematically that an average over them is not very informative.

Compare this to, say, 538. When people talk about 538's Senate forecasts and ask how good they are, this discussion is grounded in the fact that, if 538 predicts the Senate in a given year, they predict the whole Senate. It's not like Nate Silver can just pick his favorite subset of the races happening in 2020, and only predict on those, and then pick some other subset in 2022.

This means that aggregates over 538 Senate forecasts are aggregates over the category of Senate races, which is a natural category. Whereas if Nate Silver got to pick which states to predict, then you'd have aggregates over "Senate races conditional on Nate Silver deciding he wanted to predict them."

In some sense, this is an appropriate category to use when you want to evaluate a current 538 prediction, since it is (by hypothesis) a case where they decided to predict . . . except that you have to take on faith that older 538 selections are representative of newer ones.

Suppose 538 used to only select states where they thought their model would work well (whatever that means). Then, later, they relax this rule and predict on some states where they don't expect this. The calibration properties (etc) of their earlier forecasts would not transfer to the new round of predictions -- but nothing in their "numerical track record" would give you a hint that this is true.

I'm not going to say this kind of error is unquantifiable, but it is not something people typically quantify (certainly Metaculus doesn't). Usually people avoid the issue entirely by using transparent and systematic selection rules. (But Metaculus doesn't.)

----

In concrete terms, well, people are talking about Metaculus AI forecasts a lot. So I ask, "how good is their track record on AI?"

I go onto that track record page, and . . . hmm, yes, I can drill down to specific categories, that's good . . . so I put in a few AI-related ones and see something like:

Okay, cool! So . . . what does that Brier score actually mean? Like, what is this an average over?

One thing that quickly becomes clear is that these categories are noisy. I'm largely getting stuff about the future of AI, but there are some weird ones mixed in:

Will Trump finish the year without mentioning the phrase "Artificial Intelligence"? [Short-Fuse] Will AbstractSpyTreeBot win the Darwin Game on Lesswrong?

Okay, fine, I add some more filters to weed those out. Now what am I averaging over?

Well, something akin to "Nate Silver's favorite 17 states" . . . except here it's more like "Nate Silver's favorite 1-2 states, and also 538 only predicted the U.S. Senate once in a single year, and they also predicted the House but only once in some other year, and this year they're predicting the Israeli parliament."

Here's a question that caught my interest:

The "community" kinda thought this would happen in 2018, but it didn't. Did they think it was going to happen in 2019, then? In 2020 (I think that's when it really happened)? We don't know, because they only asked themselves this question once, in 2016-17.

I have no way to assess Metaculus' quality systematically on any topic area, because it never asks itself questions in a systematic way. Someone could look at the above and think, "maybe Metaculus is overly bullish on self-driving cars." Are they? I have no idea, because they just ask themselves whichever random self-driving car questions they feel like, with no natural group like "Senate races" over which it would be informative to take an average.

This issue, together with the fluid nature of "the community," mean I don't trust any summary statistic about Metaculus to tell me much of anything.

There's no glue holding this together, giving one of its parts predictive value for the properties of the others. It's just whatever. Whatever questions people felt like putting on the site, whatever people felt like voting on them at any point in time.

Computing a Brier score over "just whatever" does not give me information about some other "just whatever," both of them totally whimsical and arbitrary. These statistical tools were made for doing statistics. This is not statistics.

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petitprincess1 · 1 year

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U r such a bitch. Can't believe you stabbed dainty in the back and harassed him

I'm gonna give him the benefit of the doubt and assume you're just coming here of your own accord. I doubt he'd send people to bother me.

That being said. I didn't do anything. I knew that someone was bothering him and had dead-named him, but he never told me who. It was just some random anon that appeared in my inbox one day, which I ended up either blocking or deleting that anon. I believed him that it was just some idiot because I've had the same issues of people trying to cancel me.

As for harassing him....you mean the TWO comments I left asking to talk to him. Yes, I will fully admit that I should've let it go, but I was curious. He was still following me at the time on Twitter, so I took that as a sign. Plus, I was mildly panicked. Not even the first time I've done something like that. Maybe I need to think it through more.

But yeah, that was it. The only other messages I have of him is him saying that we talked in the past, while he was under a different name. Idk, maybe we did. I have a crappy memory.

Other than that post that got put on Twitter, I have not done anything else to Dainty. I only went to that person because they seemed to have a bit more knowledge than I. People making those kinds of posts don't automatically make them a stalker. Hell, if that were the case, then the shit that I had with Trick and 6c6 was "stalking". Besides, I only went there because of the behavior he gave me was written somewhere in one of those claims, as well as having similar experiences.

Here's the post if you're curious.

Is it wrong that I talked to someone else and allowed them to post those screenshots? Maybe, but I did my best to talk this out with Dainty. He immediately assumed that I had made that post about him, even though MANY MANY people use the same words, practically the same sentences. It's understandable for his reaction, but I said it wasn't what he thought. Yet he still blocked me. Plus, this isn't the first time he has talked over me, while being upset with me. Unfortunately, I dont have screenshots of that moment, so take it with a grain of salt if you must.

Anyone who follows me knows that I don't go out of the way to make enemies or make "gotcha" posts unless deserved. None of what was said was meant to upset him nor was the wording even vaguely directed toward him.

I'm not gonna sit here and make it seem like I'm some "victim" because I am a little guilty of fucking up. However, I also don't appreciate him unblocking me, just to leave 14 messages of guilt-tripping and trauma-dumping....and then block me again. Like, again, maybe I shouldn't have just easily allowed something like that to be published, but it's just something that didn't feel right to me.

If you wish to unfollow and/or block me, you are freely allowed. Just please know that I genuinely, genuinely (even now) mean no harm. Whatever prerogative that Beep person has, does not align with my thinking. I just wanted to bring out that ONE thing because, in my eyes, it did feel wrong. (Again, i know two wrongs don't make a right).

#discourse #tomfooleryy #just in case people dont want to see this #ask answered #ok 2 rb #helluva boss

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aliferousdreamer · 5 months

Text

@livingincolorsagain Okay, so first of all:

Seriously though, unforunately it looks like I can no longer answer your long-awaited ask because I just saved my response to your inbox in the drafts and apparently that just deleted both your ask and my answer?!?! It looks like it's just been completely gone for no reason?!?!?!?! Tumblr: WHY????????? (Btw this is my shorter back up draft so luckily I at least have this lol)

Now... I cannot say this enough... I'M SO SORRY FOR TAKING SO BLOODY LONG to do this. I think it has taken me about 1 ½ years to do this?!?! I'm so freaking embarrassed omfg. There really is no good excuse for why it has taken so freaking long. I remember that I have at least a few drafts that I made, but then my drafts became like this-

-and then I either forgot about it completely or got overwhelmed when I couldn't find any of the drafts and just abandoned it. My ability to just "nope" out of anything and procrastinate for eternity is unmatched.

Btw: I'm gonna censor most of the fandom/character/ship names (even the ones I like) because 1. I don't want to attract people who feel the need to argue with me (because I cba I really cba) and 2. I don't want to offend anyone who likes those things. It's gonna look super silly with *s everywhere but I don't have the energy for any heated discussions or arguments.

1. What OTPs in your fandom(s) do you just not get?

Ooh I have several squicky ships that I do get but I just don't feel them at all and have negative connotations associated with them... It's not exactly an answer to the question but it is what I first thought of.

Pre 2020 me didn't like Harm*one as a ship (in H*rry P*tter). Nowadays I don't interact with the fandom so I don't care but I still have negative associations with that ship and its fans.

I don't have any positive associations with Cl*uis (in TW*DG) because of bigotry.

I understand the appeal of E*yam (from C*kur) but it's a toxic, abusive, insulting mess like its fanbase. Man, I'm so glad C*kur ended in 2021 so I could leave that show and its fans behind.

I also used to feel more negative towards R*xi (from E*phoria) as a ship because of shippers' attitudes towards J*les/R*les but since F*xi became really popular I don't see nearly as much of that ship anymore.

I'll explain the reasonings more in the next question because the answers in both questions are pretty similar.

Also, to sprinkle some positivity amongst my mostly critical answers, here are some OTPs that I do like:

7. Is there anything you used to like but can’t stand now?

Again, this applies to me pre 2020, but I still remember that I used to somewhat like Harm*one as a ship from H*rry P*tter, but yeah... the portion of toxic fans who were super hateful and bitter and straight up mean towards R*n and G*nny.

I used to like L*ouis and sorta like Cl*uis from TW*DG but the homophobic/lesbophobic/biphobic fans have pretty much turned me off from the ship completely. This doesn't really apply to fans on here, moreso YouTube fans who are just The Worst tbh.

Similarly I used to like E*sun from C*kur and back in season 3 but E*yam fans (particularly on Twitter and YouTube) were just horrible. I remember being civil and polite and considerate to every single one I encountered but they were awful and one fan even wished death on my family when I had said nothing to warrant such a bizarre comment lol. They were also The Worst towards D*lan D*niz and their relentless bullying campaign against her from 2019-2021 (but I saw a few months ago that they're still hating on her in 2023 ffs), all because she was a "threat" to their toxic ship. Man, I'm so glad their ship flopped in C*kur's finale, even if it was upsetting to see them being more hateful towards D*lan. They deserved some karma after being some of the worst fans I've ever had the misfortune of seeing.

Again for positivity's sake, here are some characters I do like:

12. Is there an unpopular arc that you like that the fandom doesn’t? Why?

Unlike seemingly most of the fans on here, I like El*ven getting with M*ke in Str*nger Th*ngs. I will never understand why M*leven is so hated. She can be both independent and in a relationship, and I don't see how that's such an unpopular take. Sure, there are issues with codependency, miscommunication and lying but considering what those kids have been through, is it any surprise?! They've both been through so much trauma, both together and separately, so no wonder they don't always go about the things the "best" way. I'd cut them both some slack (especially El*ven considering the hell she's endured all her life that has stunted her growth). Also, I feel like fans are way too harsh of them because aren't they supposed to be around 14 in season 4?!?! I'd say that they're remarkably mature for their age. I will admit that I like them less than I used to after season 4 but tbf there are several characters/relationships that I like less because of season 4. I like other ships like B*ler and E*max but I don't see why liking them should almost become synonymous with hating M*leven.

On another note, this scene >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Again I'm so sorry this took so long, and that this version of my answer isn't the final one that I wanted to send (because Tumblr just erased the original one lmao).

Thank you so, so much for checking up on me and being so kind and sweet to me, even when I haven't responded or showed the gratitude that I should do!!!! I hope you're doing really well!!!!!! <3

#why tumblr deleted your ask when i saved it to the drafts is *beyond* my understanding #also cos it's basically an ask i will tag it as such #personal #long post #fandoms #my ask #my answer #ask #answer #tv show tag #tv shows

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faroreswinds · 2 years

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Japanese anon. I will be back home after tomorrow, but I have time to say a few remarks:

There is more backlash on places like twitter, 2ch (garbage place, do not touch it), and famitsu where fans of musou hopes are accusing haters of the game to be fujoshi, dream fans, and having bad taste. Fans of original three houses hit back by saying their accusers are edelgard fans (which to my lack of surprise is true). There are now lines being drawn where edelgard fans are defending the game from its critics, and it is getting ugly, especially since pro musou fans are now directly attacking by supporting shez against byleth, and it has made many people very angry. I am surprised yet not surprised to see that people who like the story are taking very sexist approaches to their critics (one person said, “you’re only mad because a rotten girl hater is the writer and you only care for your ships (cp abbreviation) instead of a good story” which started a big argument in the comment thread)

Pro hopes has been working hard on the defensive though especially because edelgard lost again in the heroes tournament votes. Lol. I can’t say that doesn’t make me happy. People are ready to burn her now for the favoritism she got in hopes and the favoritism she keeps getting in feh. A friend of mine who hates her with a passion closed the voting round with a team of summer houses units and she said “beres and rhea send their regards” and we had a laugh. Someone is circulating a meme of edelgart as thanos in the scene where she and he get their heads cut off.

To renisfan, yes, it’s awful. The younger generation i know is appalled with the message. Everyone says “someone from nippon kaigi was a writing consultant” or “abe’s ghost wrote this” . A people worry that this is sending an impression of japan becoming more conservative to foreign fans. And that the reputation of fire emblem has been tarnished.

I hope your trip is going very well, anon.

I am surprised yet not surprised to see that people who like the story are taking very sexist approaches to their critics (one person said, “you’re only mad because a rotten girl hater is the writer and you only care for your ships (cp abbreviation) instead of a good story” which started a big argument in the comment thread)

Sounds like a lot of what I have seen in English discourse too. "You're just mad because [insert something ridiculous here]"

I woke up this morning to see that Edelgard had lost yet again and had a laugh myself. Water is wet. Edelgard loses a VG.

But maaaaannnn, some of those means are really something else, huh? I did have a peek on the feh reddit page and r/edelgard and there is some major salt. Some people are coping with "she's just too popular, and the largest army always loses". I think they forgot that Rhea actually had the largest army against Edelgard and she won her round just fine.

@renisfan

abe’s ghost wrote this

Oooooofffff, that's a rough one right there. I feel bad for the man cause.... I don't like anyone being killed like that, but this is also kinda funny, ngl.

A people worry that this is sending an impression of japan becoming more conservative to foreign fans.

I can confirm that yes.... there are some who think this. Unfortunately. Sorry, Japanese fans, but I have seen this sentiment around....

And that the reputation of fire emblem has been tarnished.

I don't think it's too far gone yet. Most fans think Houses is a step up from Fates, and that the musou is just a spin off and nothing to worry about.

There is some sentiment here and there but most feel that the next FE could be even better. Or at least, that is what I have seen.

#Three Hopes #anon asks

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shenyaanigans · 2 years

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PLEASEEEE your tags on that found family post are spot on but they just reminded me of back when fans of other ships called mak0haru incesty 😭 the whole shipping drama and inventing random reasons to dislike something just so you can be morally superior like come on we don't have to make up reasons to not like something wtf 😭😭 one of the biggest reasons i don't want to get super involved in fandoms anymore since it's becoming a pissing contest of who can consume the right media in the Right way

GOD I SWEAR, ma/koharu has especially been the target of the weirdest ship hate of all time. like i also remember when people were doing the whole "omg they're so codependent, it's so unhealthy, that's why R/IN/HAR/U is the superior ship!!!!" and i just. babes you can just say it doesn't appeal to you, i promise. "i think it's boring"' or "idk it just doesn't work for me" is a valid answer (to yourself or when explicitly asked). and i wonder if there isn't a part of this that is inspired by people feeling so pressured to justify themselves all the time, and that that justification has to have weight. it reminds me a lot of like. the way in which sex is EVERYWHERE in media and yet also we have never been more sex negative tbh, despite the seeming growth of visibility and "frank" conversations around it.

like that's probably a weird parallel to draw, but i've noticed a lot that there's this intense dichotomy on social media wherein everybody (esp on twitter) is mad about everything all the time, but you're also not allowed to just not like anything because someone who likes the thing that you don't like will be Personally Offended if you say so. it's to the point that people get really upset if you are critical in any way, even if that criticism is coming from a love for the thing, which speaks to how little we tolerate any sort of criticism from anyone. not that anyone can really be blamed for that sort of feeling because, like i said and everybody already knows, everyone on social media seems mad and vitriolic about something all the time because of the way the algorithm favors that rhetoric, so being on socmed puts you on the defensive from the get go. it's not a surprise that everything critical on socmed feels like a threat when socmed in and of itself is threatening and is designed to amplify threatening voices.

and so the only way people think they're allowed to dislike something is if they have a Good Reason for it and so they go looking for a Good Reason, which is almost always "it's unhealthy!" or "it's incest-coded!!" which means you're not only allowed to verbalize your distaste, you're allowed to say that other people who don't think the way you do are wrong and bad and morally bankrupt. it feels a bit like a reassurance to oneself there too, like there's insecurity in liking what you like if other people don't like it. like those people have to be Wrong instead of just different. like ppl who ship r.in.haru have to be bad and icky rather than just, idk, people who are interested in a different flavor of f/ree than i am.

ANYWAYS that was a lot but i am just always thinking about the way in which socmed i think has furthered our sensitivity to negativity because of how overwhelmingly negative it is, in the same way it seems to continue increasing anxiety/weirdness regarding sex despite that there is so much more access to R18 content and the like.

#kat answers #thanks for coming to my ted talk i continue to have thoughts on this 😭😭

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venranae · 2 years

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Am i the only one tired of everyone taking fiction to a real place? I’ve never understood the puritan policing of fictional property (sure I get thinking certain stories are gross but as long as no one’s glorifying it and are aware this is fictional only it can be ignored). Fans in a yandere Reddit thing having fun making ocs isn’t about to cause real life stalking crime rates to go up. Especially since they arent even making ocs to attack any other characters besides be a general nuisance to their self insert. It’s just fun, or am I being unreasonable?

I'm kinda torn between the fiction affects reality cause on one hand I think stuff like being into yandere or fictional killers is absolutely just in good fun and probably nothing to worry over but on the other hand I see people defending lolicon art or other illegal kind of ""kinks"" saying its all fictional and doesn't harm anyone. And yes you might be right it doesn't harm anyone but it normalizes being attracted to those things like. For example literal drawn children and gives people with an actual attraction an excuse cause "a lot of people on the Internet like this stuff so it must be sth normal". It creates this sense of community and tries to make a serious thing harmless which in my opinion can have a serious effect on irl people. And this always depends on who sees it and how people react cause obviously stuff like murder and abuse and illegal stuff is. Obviously illegal and no person in their right mind would do it so having fictional stories like that is just fiction and most of the time explicitly looked down upon and not condoned. It's like saying you can't play shooter games anymore cause it would make you want to shoot real people when its literally a game you play for funsies. I personally draw my line when people make a fetish out of children, animals, incest, r*pe and all those very heavy topics. I don't like the whole pro/anti discussion but I would count myself on the anti side cause most "pro" people I see are just people defending their illegal sexual attractions to feel better about their fucked up morals. But at the end of the day rather stay with fiction instead of the real stuff I just don't want anyone to be ENCOURAGED to think its okay and justify it which is what i see a lot these days.

But to go back to your example I think people making yandere ocs is pretty damn harmless. Most of the time its for the "edge" and the blood and crazy characters and those are very very popular in media simply cause they are interesting and stray from normal real life. I don't think anyone that likes these kinds of stories would love for their partner to actually kill someone lol. I've had/have a crush on several fictional murderers but enough critical thinking skill to know I do not condone actual irl killing obviously 😭 like you would have to be out of your mind already to become an irl yandere or some stuff like that so people getting mad at a yandere oc reddit are going for the wrong people when twitter is filled with all kinds of irl illegal bullshit that I have to block and report on a daily basis

#ven talking

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vicsdeangelis · 2 years

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I'm on twitter and I feel like I'm not even allowed to like må anymore bc I don't wanna hurt my moots' feelings(even though most of them have muted anything related to må by now), and when people who I still follow post them I'm starting to judge them on my moots' behalf which is so ridiculous considering i wasn't even pissed about r&l, just sad, until people brought it up. and then there's other times where I do like posts about them bc I can't help it and I still love them and then I feel guilty. Idk who tf I am anymore and I don't think anyone in the fandom does tbh and it's messing w my head a lil. There are some people who act like må killed their whole family and some people who literally don't care about any of this and idk where I'm supposed to fall on that spectrum and it's confusing and awful and I hate it. I want to chuck my phone into a river and I feel like everyone else on here should too tbh after they get all of their feelings out ofc

okay, deep breaths, baby. it's fine to feel lost right now. there's like, a lot going on

you shouldn't feel guilty for still liking them, don't let anyone do that to you. other people are allowed to be mad at them, but they're not allowed to have a say in what you feel, even if they're your friends

i honestly think we all could benefit from distancing our identity from them. not distance ourselves, like, stop listening to their music or anything like that. but to not emotionally lean on them so much, because look at what happens when we do. and i'm talking about myself too. it's not just you, it's not just us, it's more people than you know, i'm sure

and you're not supposed to fall anywhere. what you're supposed to do is let yourself feel whatever it is that you are feeling, okay? even if those feelings are confusing, they should be your own, not other people's

#ask

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policemanofprincesspark · 3 months

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I genuinely appreciate your take on babygate it makes me feel less insane. I used to be in the party that didn’t really think anything would come of the pregnancy rumors until of course out pops Freddie. I could recognize the aspects of BG that were always shady but larrie theories in my opinion got more and more bizarre the longer BG stretched which is why I ended up taking a step back.

I think there were also ‘influential’ larries who refused to give up on theories that had obviously been wrong (ie. Freddie was a doll) I couldn’t make myself see Brett or Austin when I looked at Freddie, Briana actually having been pregnant wasn’t a far stretch for me, and the kid looked like Louis point blank. Being called a fake larrie for voicing any of that got tiring.

I feel like there are certain hills that a lot of larries just refuse to come down off and the longer babygate lasts the more it weakens the theory as a whole. Like yeah new larries aren’t going to take this seriously when there’s constantly theorizing over strange minute details that cannot be proven or disproven like saying they’re lying about Freddie’s birthday??? Okay who cares? Anyway I look forward to your thread on the doppelgänger theory.

Thank you! I felt the same way and also took a step back a few months after F was born. I couldn't make sense of anything and felt so much anger toward Louis. I felt like I'd been personally "betrayed" lol.

That said, babygate will always be shady, mainly because of the ways in which Louis and Harry themselves have directly shaded it. I'll be covering some of those in the future.

The main reason why so many larries now believe Louis is a father (or why so many people are now ex-larries) is because F looks like Louis. That's it.

The longer brettgaters hang onto these Brett and photoshop theories, the more they will discredit our entire theory and the more people will start to realize F looks like Louis and isn't being photoshopped. It worries me whenever a picture of F is posted that goes around the fandom and larries start saying "maybe Louis really is the father." It's as if it's down to either photoshop or Louis being the father. I haven't seen anyone consider the idea of Sony finding a Louis lookalike, even though to me it seems like the only other answer.

That's how I found those articles. Only about a month ago, I searched up "one direction lookalikes" just to see if there had been anything about such a concept, and lo and behold I find straight-up casting calls from One Direction's management (well, they claim it's security who wanted them, but that to me sounded like a made-up story to disguise the real reason). I actually contacted a bunch of people including some of 1D's old security, and they got back to me. I don't know when I'll make the post, but I have all of the information ready to go in a folder. I'll probably make it into a google doc so I can send it to people on twitter and that awful r/larrystylinson subreddit, since no one seems to trust sources from tumblr lol.

#ask #babygate #lookalike sperm donor #brettgaters

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