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marilynngmesalo · 5 years

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Stars push Predators to edge of elimination with win

Stars push Predators to edge of elimination with win Stars push Predators to edge of elimination with win http://bit.ly/2Xowczg

NASHVILLE — The young Dallas Stars have blossomed this post-season, and now their top line of Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and Alexander Radulov are showing just how much damage they can do together.

The combination has put the West’s first wild card a win away from reaching the second round.

Radulov scored two goals in the second period and the Stars beat the Nashville Predators 5-3 on Saturday to push the Western Conference’s No. 2 seed to the brink of elimination.

The Stars now lead this best-of-seven series 3-2 over the two-time defending Central Division champs. Dallas will have a chance Monday night at home in Game 6 to join Colorado and Columbus as the latest lower seed coming through in the opening round.

“I think we keep getting better, and we have to keep getting better,” Dallas coach Jim Montgomery said. “The next one’s the hardest one because it’s the potential to end someone’s season. That’s the challenge in front of us now.”

Jason Dickinson also scored twice, Seguin had a goal and an assist, and Benn matched the NHL playoff record for most assists in a single period with three in the second. The Stars also scored at least five goals in back-to-back playoff games for the ninth time in franchise history, the first since Games 3 and 4 of the 1991 conference finals when this team was still in Minnesota.

Ben Bishop, named a finalist for the Vezina Trophy during the game, made 30 saves for the win.

“It’s a great honour,” Bishop said of being a finalist. “As much as it is an individual award, it’s a team thing. The guys have done a great job in front of me all season.”

Rocco Grimaldi, Ryan Johansen and Kyle Turris scored for Nashville. The Predators lost back-to-back playoff games for the first time since Games 5 and 6 of the 2017 Stanley Cup Final. Nashville coach Peter Laviolette said his Predators have been in these situations before.

Nashville Predators goaltender Pekka Rinne (35), of Finland, blocks a shot by Dallas Stars center Tyler Seguin (91) during the first period in Game 5 of an NHL hockey first-round playoff series Saturday, April 20, 2019, in Nashville, Tenn.

“They’ve answered the bell,” Laviolette said. “They’ll answer the bell in Game 6 and we’ll bring it back here.”

Laviolette got forward Brian Boyle back after missing the past three games with an appendectomy and mixed up his lines. Nashville struggled too much with sloppy play including 19 giveaways.

Credit Dallas’ top line for making the Predators pay for those mistakes. Seguin, Benn and Radulov took 16 of the Stars’ 26 shots, and the trio was responsible for all three goals in the second. Montgomery said Benn was banging his stick wanting more ice time for the line, and Seguin said that line is all about work and will.

“Obviously, we have the skill and talent there,” Seguin said. “When we’re working hard, we’re happy to go up against anybody. They’re a good team. They had some good pushbacks tonight. I think goalie still played really good, especially early on. It’s going to be a really hard game to try and win on home ice.”

Grimaldi has been Nashville’s most surprising scorer in this series, and he gave them a 1-0 lead at 6:25 with a wrister over Bishop’s glove. Then Rinne came through with a pair of dazzling saves while on his back 70 seconds later, stopping a backhander from Radulov with his left leg and then a shot from Benn with his left.

Dickinson tied it up for Dallas at 13:08 of the first, beating Rinne with a wrister for his first goal this post-season.

The Stars seized control in the second.

The Predators failed to clear the puck after winning a faceoff, and Seguin passed to Radulov who scored his third this series into an open net with Rinne at the far post just 40 seconds into the second period for a 2-1 lead. Radulov gave Dallas a 3-1 lead with a goal from the slot off a backhanded pass from Benn at 7:41 with the Stars fully in control. Benn beat Nashville defenceman Ryan Ellis to the puck to pass to Radulov.

“It’s a race for the puck and you just want to do whatever you can to get that puck,” Benn said. “I heard those guys calling behind me way before I had the puck because they always want the puck. I just found a way to get it to Rads there and he made a great shot.”

Johansen scored his first goal this post-season at 9:18 off a pass from Filip Forsberg. Dallas simply made it a 4-2 lead as the Stars caught Nashville in a line change, and Benn passed to Seguin in the slot who slid the puck under Rinne’s left pad at 15:54.

Rinne said the Predators have to get better.

“It’s not good enough,” Rinne said.

Dickinson made it 5-2 with a slap shot from the high slot off another Nashville turnover at 1:57 of the third. Turris was credited with a goal at 2:25 where the puck went off Stars defenceman Miro Heiskanen’s skate.

NOTES: Nashville came into this post-season one of only three teams to reach the second round each of the past three seasons with Washington and Pittsburgh, and the Penguins were swept in the first round. … Radulov posted his second multi-goal performance in the playoffs. His last was in Game 1 of the 2007 conference quarterfinals with Nashville. … Washington’s John Carlson also had three assists in a single period in Game 1 against Carolina this post-season. … Grimaldi scored only five goals in 53 games during the regular season.

UP NEXT: The Stars can end the series Monday night in Game 6 in Dallas.

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thrashermaxey · 5 years

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Lining Up: Playoff Edition

With the Stanley Cup Playoffs just hours away, you’re probably getting ready to assemble the ultimate roster for your playoff pool. Luckily for you, I’ve done a ‘quick’ lineup review for every one of this year’s playoff teams. You can find last week’s review of the top-eight qualifying teams over here. This week we take a look at the remaining eight teams. Follow me on Twitter @BrennanDeSouza for line combinations and injury updates as they playoffs begin!

Western Conference

Nashville Predators (Source)

Line Combination

Goals

For

Goals

Against

CF%

TOI

Filip Forsberg – Ryan Johansen – Viktor Arvidsson

58.72

540:07

Mikael Granlund – Kyle Turris – Craig Smith

53.45

79:42

Colton Sissons – Nick Bonino – Austin Watson

50.97

173:07

Stats retrieved from NaturalStatTrick

While the Predators are favoured to win their first-round matchup against the Dallas Stars, they’ll be up against one of the scariest playoff phenomena – a goalie capable of stealing a series. Ben Bishop has been outstanding this season, sporting a 1.98 GAA and .934 SV% alongside a 27-15-2 record. Dallas as a team has also been excellent defensively this year, conceding an average of just 2.44 goals per game – only the Islanders were better defensively (2.33 GAA).

I’ve always considered Nashville’s top line to be one of the best in the league. Filip Forsberg and Viktor Arvidsson have become frequent 30-goal scorers and display the potential to tally 40 goals over the course of a full season. I mean, Arvidsson put up 34 goals in just 58 games this year! Ryan Johansen’s playmaking ability perfectly complements his wingers’ knack for putting the puck in the net. More importantly, Johansen has an impressive 41 points in 47 career playoff games. The trio has had a few seasons to build chemistry and it’s evident in how effortlessly they move the puck. I’d definitely load up on the Predators’ top line if you think Nashville is ready for a deep run this Spring.

If you think Nashville is going far in the playoffs, you might also want to load up on their depth. Kyle Turris certainly has playoff experience with 30 points in 59 games, but Nick Bonino provides a lesser-known and maybe even more valuable option as he has 45 points in 88 career playoff games. While Mikael Granlund hasn’t quite found his place with the Preds just yet, the team will need him to contribute if they’re to make a run this year.

Dallas Stars (Source)

Line Combination

Goals

For

Goals

Against

CF%

TOI

Jason Dickinson – Tyler Seguin – Alex Radulov

48.15

22:16

Jamie Benn – Roope Hintz – Mats Zuccarello

62.50

8:01

Andrew Cogliano – Radek Faksa – Blake Comeau

42.86

97:55

Stats retrieved from NaturalStatTrick

The Stars struggled offensively this season, scoring an average of just 2.55 goals per game – third-fewest in the league. That stat is all the more alarming when you consider that Dallas has three offensively-gifted forwards in Tyler Seguin, Alex Radulov and Jamie Benn. Both Seguin and Radulov met expectations this year, tallying 80 points in 82 games and 72 points in 70 games, respectively. On the other hand, Benn struggled with just 53 points in 78 games. His 56-point pace was the lowest since his debut in the 2009-2010 campaign. He does have 20 points in 19 career playoff games, so I wouldn’t fault you for targeting him in your playoff pool. Radulov has also performed well during previous playoff action, tallying 21 points in 24 games. In contrast, Seguin has just 21 points in 49 playoff games, but the majority of those games were played when he was a young star in Boston, with a much smaller role.

Injuries have prevented Mats Zuccarello from building chemistry with his teammates in Dallas, but he does have three points in the two games he’s played as a Star. Speaking of chemistry, I think it’s important to note that the lines Dallas will start in the playoffs haven’t had a lot of time to play together during the regular season – as you can tell from their ice-time in the table above. Will this lack of familiarity lead to the team’s downfall in the first round of the playoffs? Only time will tell.

Vegas Golden Knights (Source)

Line Combination

Goals

For

Goals

Against

CF%

TOI

Jonathan Marchessault – William Karlsson – Reilly Smith

54.49

840:43

Max Pacioretty – Paul Stastny – Mark Stone

58.82

156:49

Brandon Pirri – Cody Eakin – Alex Tuch

50:33

71:06

Stats retrieved from NaturalStatTrick

The majority of this season’s playoff matchups feature a relatively clear favourite going head-to-head with an ‘underdog’. One of the few exceptions (Winnipeg-St. Louis being the other) can be found in the Vegas-San Jose series, where each team seems equally capable of defeating the other. Last week, we highlighted San Jose’s incredible depth scoring, but this week it’s important to acknowledge that the Golden Knights also have offensive threats throughout their lineup. With that being said, my biggest concern is the team’s top line, which has taken a step backward since an incredible performance last year. The trio of Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson and Reilly Smith was absolutely dominant last season, outscoring opponents by a tally of 50-24 in just over 700 minutes of ice-time together. As you can tell from the table above, they haven’t been nearly as impressive this year. William Karlsson went from 78 points last year to 56 this season, and Marchessault went from 75 to 59. Smith went from 60 points to 53 points, despite playing seven more games this season than he played last season.

Vegas relied on an outstanding performance from Marc-Andre Fleury to get them into the Stanley Cup Final last season and I’m not confident that he’ll be able to replicate that same level of excellence. However, if your gut is telling you that the Golden Knights are primed for a deep run this year, they have plenty of ‘depth’ options that you can target in the later rounds of your draft. Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty, Paul Stastny, Cody Eakin and Alex Tuch all come to mind. Of those players, Paul Stastny has the most impressive playoff resume, with 50 points in 72 career playoff games.

Colorado Avalanche (Source)

Line Combination

Goals

For

Goals

Against

CF%

TOI

Alex Kerfoot – Nathan MacKinnon – Gabriel Landeskog

62.41

60:10

Matt Nieto – Carl Soderberg – Mikko Rantanen

46.48

30:01

Sven Andrighetto – Derick Brassard – J.T. Compher

50.00

1:34

Stats retrieved from NaturalStatTrick

It looks like Colorado has decided against a first-line stack when they kick off their matchup against the Flames on Thursday. The decision to play Mikko Rantanen on a separate line from Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog has been made to spread out the team’s scoring, but I fully expect to see the trio reunited at some point during the series. Aside from the team’s three offensive studs, I’m not sure if there’s a player who’s really good enough to play in the top-six. No disrespect to J.T. Compher or Alex Kerfoot, but I think there’s still progress to be made before they can be considered second-liners. Carl Soderberg and Derick Brassard make for great third line options, while Matt Nieto and Sven Andrighetto are capable of rounding out the bottom-six. The problem is, the Avalanche have to use depth players on the second line because they lack ‘secondary scoring’. In contrast, the Flames have a second line that features Matthew Tkachuk, Mikael Backlund and Mikael Frolik. While Frolik and Backlund may not be traditional second-line players, their chemistry with Tkachuk – who has first-line talent – allows the line as a whole to function as a great second unit.

While Calgary is favoured to beat Colorado in the first round, the Avs have a better chance of winning than most people realize. The Flames and Avalanche both had 11 wins and nine losses in the final quarter of the season, but Colorado also has the benefit of a hot goaltender. From March 1st onwards, Phillip Grubauer went on a 8-2-2 run while putting up a 1.55 GAA and .952 SV%. During the same timeframe, David Rittich had a 5-4 record as he put up a 2.82 GAA and .905 SV%. Mike Smith went 4-5 with a 2.15 GAA and .904 SV%.

Eastern Conference

Pittsburgh Penguins (Source)

Line Combination

Goals

For

Goals

Against

CF%

TOI

Jake Guentzel – Sidney Crosby – Bryan Rust

51.42

471:39

Jared McCann – Evgeni Malkin – Patric Hornqvist

0:49

Dominik Simon – Nick Bjugstad – Phil Kessel

38:10

14:54

Stats retrieved from NaturalStatTrick

The Penguins-Islanders series will give us an opportunity to see what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object. The unstoppable force being Pittsburgh’s high-powered offense and the immovable object being New York’s stingy defense. The Pens scored an average of 3.30 goals per game this year, while the Isles conceded a league-low 2.33 goals per game. Somethin’s gotta give.

Pittsburgh has three well-known offensive superstars and each of them have a history of excellence in the playoffs. Sidney Crosby has 185 points in 160 career playoff games, Phil Kessel has 75 points in 83 games and Evgeni Malkin has 165 in 158. This quote from Malkin on how he hopes to erase his regular season ‘struggles’ this year with a better playoff performance would have me terrified if I were an Islanders fan.

Everyone knows how good Kessel, Crosby and Malkin are in the playoffs because of their lengthy track record. On the other hand, 24-year-old Jake Guentzel isn’t as widely recognized as an offensive star – but he very much is. Guentzel managed 76 points in 82 games this season and has 42 points in 37 career playoff games. Chances are, the average hockey fan doesn’t think Guentzel is as valuable as Pittsburgh’s other offensive superstars because he hasn’t been around for as long. In reality, he’s capable of providing elite offensive production and you can probably get him after Crosby, Malkin and Kessel are taken off the board in your draft.

Matt Murray was excellent down the stretch for Pittsburgh, sporting a 2.26 GAA and .931 SV% during a 10-4-4 run since March 1st.

Toronto Maple Leafs (Source)

Line Combination

Goals

For

Goals

Against

CF%

TOI

Zach Hyman – John Tavares – Mitch Marner

53.38

844:45

Andreas Johnsson – Auston Matthews – Kasperi Kapanen

55.36

211:25

Patrick Marleau – Nazem Kadri – William Nylander

62.77

110:27

Stats retrieved from NaturalStatTrick

In the past 10 years, the Toronto Maple Leafs have qualified for postseason action four times. Three of those four qualifications led them to a first-round date with the Boston Bruins. While two of those matchups are already in the books, the Leafs have yet another opportunity to exercise their demons and defeat a team that seems to have their number. With the additions of John Tavares and Jake Muzzin, as well as the emergence of both Andreas Johnsson and Kasperi Kapanen, Toronto’s roster has never looked better. Yet, the team still heads into a first-round matchup as the underdog. The overwhelming majority of the hockey world believes that the Leafs are too young and lack the mental fortitude to overcome their playoff struggles against the Bruins. However, when you consider how close Toronto has been to beating Boston in the past, as well as the fact that the Leafs’ roster has improved on paper, I think this might finally be their year.

Throughout this season, Toronto’s first line of Zach Hyman, John Tavares and Mitch Marner has been one of the best in the league. While Hyman has the least name-value of the three, he has been playing well enough to provide some great late-round value in your playoff pool. In all honesty, any member of the Leafs’ top-9 is capable of producing offensively come playoff time. The only reason I’d hesitate to go with a Leafs-heavy fantasy roster is the fact that their road to the Cup will probably take them through Tampa Bay – and I’m not sure if they could keep up with the Lightning.

Carolina Hurricanes (Source)

Line Combination

Goals

For

Goals

Against

CF%

TOI

Nino Niederreiter – Sebastian Aho – Justin Williams

60.33

459:58

Micheal Ferland – Jordan Staal – Teuvo Teravainen

53.33

90:06

Andrei Svechnikov – Lucas Wallmark – Jordan Martinook

58.78

292:22

Stats retrieved from NaturalStatTrick

The Hurricanes are a very good team and they’re capable of beating the Washington Capitals in the first round. They’ve displayed an ability to outshoot and out-chance their opponents throughout the regular season, while receiving solid goaltending from Petr Mrazek and Curtis McElhinney. Carolina was actually one of the best teams in the second half of the season – going on a 30-12-2 run since the beginning of the calendar year. To provide you with some reference, the Tampa Bay Lightning had a 31-9-2 record the same span, while the Capitals went 24-15-5.

This edition of the Hurricanes features a mix of young talent with no playoff experience, older talent with some playoff experience and veteran talent with a lot of playoff experience. Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov fall in the first category, but what they lack in experience they more than make up for in offensive ability. Teuvo Teravainen, Micheal Ferland and Nino Niederreiter all have some playoff experience with other teams, which will be useful as they embark on this postseason journey. Finally, we come to the veterans. Justin Williams has 94 points in 140 career playoff games while Jordan Staal has 73 games of playoff experience, but all of them were played between 2007-2012 with the Penguins.

Columbus Blue Jackets (Source)

Line Combination

Goals

For

Goals

Against

CF%

TOI

Artemi Panarin – Pierre-Luc Dubois – Cam Atkinson

54.80

774:15

Josh Anderson – Matt Duchene – Ryan Dzingel

45.58

112:40

Brandon Dubinsky – Boone Jenner – Riley Nash

34.29

22:15

Stats retrieved from NaturalStatTrick

The Columbus Blue Jackets will be under a lot of pressure to perform this postseason, as it’ll probably be their last stretch with such a star-studded lineup. Big names like Artemi Panarin, Matt Duchene, and Sergei Bobrovsky aren’t expected to be around next year, so it’s important for the team to make the most of this opportunity. Their road to the Cup begins with the seemingly impossible task of upsetting the Tampa Bay Lightning – a team that won 62 regular season games. For reference, the Calgary Flames had the second-most wins with 50. Tampa Bay has one of the best rosters we’ve ever seen and it’s hard to imagine they’ll be beaten by any team four times during a seven-game series. But that’s the beauty of the NHL playoffs. It doesn’t matter how heavily favoured a team is to win, upsets are always possible. A hot goalie can steal a series. Luckily for the Blue Jackets, they have one of the league’s hottest goalies in Sergei Bobrovsky – who tallied four shutouts since March 1st, going on a 10-5 run while sporting a .933 SV%, 1.95 GAA.

If you really believe in Columbus beating Tampa and going on a deep run this year, you have the luxury of drafting their superstars in later rounds, because very few people expect the Lightning to lose in round one and will be avoiding the Blue Jackets as a result.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/nhl-line-combinations/lining-up-playoff-edition/

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thrashermaxey · 5 years

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Ramblings: Updates on Perron and Grzelcyk; Kravtsov; Ristolainen; Heponiemi; Robert Thomas – March 13

It’s that time of year where guys who are property of a franchise, be it in college or overseas, start making their way to the NHL to get some games in. We already saw Quinn Hughes, Vancouver’s first rounder from last year, sign with the team. One guy dynasty owners were hoping for was Vitali Kravtsov, the 19-year old Rangers first rounder from the same draft. It appears that his KHL team will not terminate his contract, allowing him to join New York this season. Rangers fans and fantasy owners are going to have to wait until next season to possibly see him in the lineup.

I know people like to make fun of Rasmus Ristolainen in the real world (and for good reason), but in fantasy, almost no player has been more consistent. Sitting at 39 points on Tuesday afternoon, Risto needs one more to make it four consecutive seasons with 40 points, 2+ shots per game, 100 hits, and 100 blocks. It would also be two consecutive years with 40 points, 2+ shots per game, 200 hits, and 100 blocks. The plus/minus, as it always has been, is a huge concern, but there’s enough everywhere else to more than make up for it. It’s just another solid fantasy campaign for the 24-year old blue liner.

Yesterday in these Ramblings I said I was disappointed with the play of the Stars this year, or at least the way the coach has them playing. All the same, I’m happy to see Roope Hintz get an extended look on the top line. He’s been there for about a month now and considering how often this lineup has changed over the course of the season, that’s a borderline miracle. He only has 6 points in his last 16 games but that they’re giving him such a leash means they’re seeing something beyond just production. This could be good news for him in 2019-20.

On the topic of the Stars:

Posts/Crossbars leaders, all situations this year:

14 Seguin 13 McDavid 12 Eichel, Saad, Zibanejad 11 Gaudreau, Kucherov 10 Kadri, Ovechkin 9 Laine, Pacioretty 8 Just a ton of dudes

— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) March 12, 2019

Seguin needs three goals to crack the 30-goal plateau for the fifth time in six seasons with the Stars, and there’s a good argument that he should be there already. He’s also on pace for 70-plus points for the sixth consecutive season. He’s just a flat-out stud.

Another name of interest on that list is Brandon Saad. I was a big believer in his rebound from last year and he’s currently sitting with 22 goals and should probably have more. Assists are a problem and the lack of PP production, as it has been for most of his career, is an ongoing issue. He’s still a very good five-on-five player, though even I’ll admit that at this point he’s a better real-world player than fantasy option.

David Perron didn’t suit up for the Blues on Tuesday night as he’s still recovering from a concussion. It appears he’s on the mend, but we know how fickle concussions are, and someone with Perron’s history has to be extra careful. It’ll be nice to see him back in the lineup at some point but his long-term health is paramount right now.

The Bruins say defenceman Matt Grzelcyk is undergoing an MRI to determine the extent of his injury. He had been having a very solid year here in his second full season, helping the Bruins drive the play forward, being a good starting point for their attack. As long as this isn’t too severe, I hope he gets back in time for playoffs. Not that he’s a key cog because they do have guys like Krug, McAvoy, and Moore, but having more good puck-moving defencemen is never a bad thing.

There was a good Ramblings over at Dobber Prospects a couple days ago from Jokke Nevalainen discussing, among many other things, Kaapo Kakko and Aleksi Heponiemi. That second name seems to be a forgotten prospect to some people as Henrik Borgstrom solidifies himself with the Panthers, but as Jokke points, out, Heponiemi is among the Liiga scoring leaders and just turned 20 in January. This has been a spectacular season for him and if he can crack the roster in October, could go a long way in lengthening the lineup and making Florida even more dangerous offensively. There are a lot of bridges to cross between now and then but it’s still a very solid effort from the young Finn.

While I was researching some stuff on Robert Thomas (that’s below), I came across this little nugget: among 295 forwards with at least 600 minutes at five-on-five, Ryan Kesler is last in points/60 minutes. Not last on the Ducks, last in the league.

After falling behind 2-0, Pittsburgh reeled off four straight goals to beat Washington 4-3. Two of those Penguins goals were assisted by Evgeni Malkin, giving him 1000 points for his career. Since entering the league, Malkin trails only Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby in points, and Crosby in points per game. With one MVP, two scoring titles, and three Stanley Cups (so far), Malkin will be… walkin… to the Hall of Fame when his career is over. I remember a time he wasn’t listed as a top-100 player in the history of the NHL.

Pittsburgh’s top line did a lot of the damage as Jake Guentzel potted one goal, as did Jared McCann, while Crosby scored two. Those two goals gave Pittsburgh’s captain 90 points on the year, the first time he’s managed 90 points since 2013-14. Scoring is up across the league but getting to 100 points is well within reach. He should be in the conversation for MVP.

Columbus let Boston back in the game but eventually took a 7-4 win from the Bruins. The newly-formed line of Ryan Dzingel, Matt Duchene, and Josh Anderson as they had one goal and two assists, one goal, and one goal and three assists, respectively. I imagine we see that trio get some run over the last four weeks of the season.

Boone Jenner had a hat trick, finishing the deed with under a minute left and an empty net. He also had three blocks, two penalty minutes, and a hit to complete a very good fantasy evening. Jenner also needs just one more point to reach the 40-point bar for the first time in three years.

More updates in the morning.

There have been injuries to the top line all year in St. Louis, be it Jaden Schwartz, Brayden Schenn, or more recently Vladimir Tarasenko. The most recent injury has pushed rookie Robert Thomas to the top line and that is a very cushy assignment, obviously. It’s one that if everything goes well, could tip the balance of some head-to-head playoff matchups this week. I thought it would be worth diving into his rookie season.

You can click on Thomas’s name above to read his Dobber Prospects profile to see what our writers have been saying about him since he was drafted nearly two years ago.

From the outset of the season, we had good reason to believe Thomas would be a featured player on this roster this season. Remember that there was talk at the start of the year of leaving Schwartz-Schenn-Tarasenko together and then having Thomas centre the second line with Ryan O’Reilly on his wing. The Blues flopped out of the gate and lines were a mess basically until Craig Berube was hired as the head coach.

At time of writing, Thomas has amassed 25 points in 56 games this year. That may not seem spectacular, but he’s averaged just 12:38 per contest in those 56 games. His points per 60 minutes at five-on-five sits at 1.77, just ahead of Schwartz on the Blues. League-wide, he’s tied for 143rd out of 295 forwards with at least 600 minutes. He’s tied, by the way, with Josh Anderson and James van Riemsdyk, the former a surging young star, the latter an established one. Not bad company.

The worrying point is the shooting. I say that because as I mentioned yesterday in my Ramblings, guys who don’t shoot tend to not have a lot of fantasy value in multi-cat leagues. Out of those same 295 forwards with 600 minutes at five-on-five, Thomas is 290th in shot attempts per 60 minutes. That’s lower than notorious non-shooters Travis Zajac and Valtteri Filppula. He’s not very far ahead of Joe Thornton, either. Thomas’s player profile has always been that of a two-way playmaking centre, so goal scoring was not something we should really expect from him in droves. All the same, unless he turns into an elite playmaker like Thornton or Nicklas Backstrom, it’ll be hard for Thomas to be a coveted fantasy option down the road. He’s still a teenage rookie, of course, but shooting so little – and that’s important to keep in mind: it’s not a low shot rate, it’s an abysmal one – is a concern.

There are also his line mates to consider. By far his most common line (per Dobber Tools) was with Patrick Maroon and Tyler Bozak, and the next-most common is with MacKenzie McEachern and Ivan Barbashev. That Thomas has produced as well as he has with the line mates he has is impressive. None of the guys listed are big goal scorers, Maroon being the closest and he’s had a good year if he can manage 20 goals, which doesn’t mesh well with Thomas’s skills. He doesn’t need a playmaker as his centre, he needs a guy who can finish. Playing him with Barbashev, a guy who shoots less often than Thomas does, seems like a waste.

Finally, just watching Thomas, he never stands out. That’s not really a bad thing, either. His new centre, Ryan O’Reilly, is one of the best centres in the league and often doesn’t do anything that stands out to the eye. Thomas seems sound positionally, is always aware of his assignments, and seems to be able to be one or two steps ahead with the puck in the offensive zone. That combination will serve him very well moving forward.

As far as his fantasy ceiling goes, unless Thomas drastically changes his game, it won’t be high outside of points-only leagues. Again, guys who shoot with such infrequency rarely have significant fantasy value in multi-cat leagues. It may be one of those situations where three years from now, Thomas is a much better real-world player than a fantasy one (think of Mikael Backlund). I’m sure the Blues and their fans would be happy with that, but fantasy owners likely will not be.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-updates-on-perron-and-grzelcyk-kravtsov-ristolainen-heponiemi-robert-thomas-march-13/

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marilynngmesalo · 6 years

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‘WE HAVE RESPECT FOR HIM’: NHL’s top ref goes by his own ‘humbling’ book

‘WE HAVE RESPECT FOR HIM’: NHL’s top ref goes by his own ‘humbling’ book https://ift.tt/eA8V8J ‘WE HAVE RESPECT FOR HIM’: NHL’s top ref goes by his own ‘humbling’ book

Wes McCauley keeps his good calls close and his bad calls closer.

Any time the veteran NHL referee is feeling too good or gets down on himself, he breaks out a binder full of his missed calls and looks through it.

“It’s a humbling book,” McCauley said. “Trust me, I’ve made a lot of mistakes. There’s times you wish you could saw your arm off.”

McCauley’s arms have signalled countless penalties, goals and no-goals since his NHL career began in 2003. Over the past 15 years, he has developed a reputation as not only the most animated referee in the game but the best in hockey based on his consistency, rapport with players and coaches and a demeanour that’s equal parts entertaining and professional.

In an NHLPA poll last spring, almost half of players chose McCauley as the league’s best referee, honouring a man in stripes who’s far more used to getting barked at than complimented.

“I don’t think I’m that good,” McCauley told The Associated Press. “My job’s just to officiate hockey games and to do the best I can and to move on to the next game and really to stay out of the highlights.”

McCauley has his own highlights reels because he enjoys hamming it up when he makes announcements. When he reaches to his right hip to turn on the microphone, it’s must-see entertainment.

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His flair for the dramatic once sent former Rangers coach Alain Vigneault into a laughing fit on the bench, and it has been the subject of mocking from veteran officials for just how demonstrative he can be when whistling a penalty or waving off a goal. McCauley knows he’s more exuberant than he has to be, but that’s part of the fun for him and players.

“He’s real,” Avalanche forward Nathan MacKinnon said. “He’s obviously an animated guy and definitely calls a good game.”

McCauley earned the votes of 47.8% of players as the NHL’s best referee, well ahead of Kelly Sutherland (17.7%), Tim Peel (4.4%), Dan O’Halloran (2.7%) and Trevor Hanson (2.7%). The 46-year-old from Georgetown, Ontario, is the most popular and respected ref because he gets it right more often than not, apologizes when he doesn’t and knows how to explain his calls to players and coaches.

“Consistency. You kind of know what you’re getting with him,” Rangers forward Chris Kreider said. “In any sport when you talk about refereeing, if a ref isn’t very visible and prevalent and the game is decided by the players ultimately, then that’s a good ref and that’s Wes.”

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McCauley gets that. He played four seasons at Michigan State from 1989-93, had a cup of coffee in the minors and figures his relationships with players from that era bought him the benefit of the doubt, and some of that still exists.

“He’s in charge out there, and there’s really not a lot of grey area,” said Capitals coach Todd Reirden, who went to Bowling Green and played against McCauley in college. “He stands his line and he lets the players play, but he also has a great pulse of what’s going on and I think that’s from his experiences of playing the game at a collegiate level and also some at a pro level. He relates really well with the players and with the coaches.”

McCauley vividly remembers botching a call in Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final when he didn’t see that Washington’s Chandler Stephenson, not Vegas defenceman Deryk Engelland, tripped teammate Nicklas Backstrom and called a penalty. As with many other calls, he hoped it wouldn’t directly affect the result and apologized to Engelland later.

That’s a common theme during McCauley’s career.

“I still remember one time he made a bad call and he found me the next time we were playing and said: ‘Hey, I just want to let you know I know that call was really bad. I’ve been thinking about it a lot and I wanted to apologize,”‘ Winnipeg centre Mark Scheifele said. “When he has the respect level for the game and for us as players, we have respect for him. And I think that’s why he’s known to be the best referee out there.”

Best referee out there?

“Now you jinxed me — now I’m going to be up and down like a toilet seat next season,” McCauley quipped.

Maybe earlier in his career that was a danger, though McCauley now has 957 regular-season and 131 playoff games under his and has worked six Stanley Cup Final series.

Over that time, McCauley has developed a balance between knowing players see him as an obstacle to winning while still communicating with them to the point they know him personally. Even if players aren’t happy with his calls, they appreciate McCauley’s honesty and ability to have just as big a mouth as they do.

“You automatically sometimes snap at the refs,” Stars centre Tyler Seguin said. “Sometimes you blame the refs for things that were even out of their control. And he finds a way to take it, give it back a little and then move on pretty quickly and he’s always been very respectful to the players and I think that’s what makes him a great ref.”

McCauley’s life experiences helped make him a great ref. His dad, John McCauley, worked 15 years as an NHL referee before an eye injury took him off the ice and led to a director of officiating job before his unexpected death at age 44. His brother, Blaine, suffered an eye injury that cost him his hockey-playing career and changed Wes’ view forever.

“My biggest thing is when I step on the ice, I want the players to feel like, ‘Oh, OK we’re going to get a fair shake tonight,”‘ McCauley said. “I’ve never really taken it for granted, so I try to go out there and referee every game the best I can.”

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thrashermaxey · 6 years

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Frozen Pool Forensics: Pay The Man – Part 2

In continuation of last week’s piece, let’s look at another batch of players heading for unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2019, barring a prior contract signing.

Tyler Seguin

Blossoming into one of the most consistent offensive forwards in the league since coming to Texas five seasons ago, Tyler Seguin finds himself without a contract beyond the coming season. We can assume Dallas Stars GM Jim Nill will sign him to a lengthy contract extension before he ever sniffs free agency but there are no guarantees if this team does not make the postseason in 2018-19. Now approaching 27 years of age, if Seguin feels the team no longer has what it takes to claim the Stanley Cup, he may very well test free agency after seeing the astounding amount of money John Tavares signed for. The fact that only six players have more points than the Plymouth Whalers alum since 2013-14, coupled with his 0.99 pts/gm compared to Tavares 0.98 pts/gm in that timeframe, he more than deserves that type of deal. Second to only Alexander Ovechkin in shots on goal last year, Seguin is one of the most dangerous shooters in the game, finally ascending to the 40-goal plateau in 2017-18. With improvement in his play away from the puck as apparent in his plus-12 last year compared to minus-15 in 2016-17, Seguin is also seemingly rounding out his game with age. His consistency needs be coveted far more by fantasy owners as not many are a lock for 70-points year in and year out. Whether in Dallas or elsewhere, Seguin stands to be paid handsomely next summer with the production to back it up.

Yanni Gourde

On arguably the deepest team in the league, Yanni Gourde is never going to receive the acknowledgement he deserves for his arrival in the NHL. With 64 points in his first full 82-game season, rarely seeing time with Steven Stamkos and never with Nikita Kucherov, the Saint-Narcisse native would be a top line player potentially for other franchises. Quite literally coming out of nowhere, Gourde is a relentless energy player who can put up goals and assists whilst pestering the opposition across all 200 feet of ice. Perseverance is the word to use when describing the undersized forward who took a long path to the game’s top league. That will and determination will only motivate him ever more to put his best foot forward in 2018-19 to secure another contract. Being on a team with so much cap space locked up in a handful of players, there are no guarantees he stays with the Tampa Bay Lightning. Playing with dynamic Brayden Point and versatile Ondrej Palat, do not sleep on Gourde in fantasy drafts, as he will be an afterthought to the Lightning’s bevy of household names. His shooting percentage is certainly high at 18% but even with regression he can still cross the 20-goal plateau in 2018-19.

Sergei Bobrovsky

Anytime I draft this guy his groin explodes, so while I’ll personally be cautious, 2018-19 may be the time for you to invest in the Columbus Blue Jackets goaltender. Entering his age-30 season, Sergei Bobrovsky has established himself as a top-five goaltender in the league with a good squad in front of him. Able to appear in over 60 games in the two prior campaigns, the Russian is not a Cam Talbot-level workhorse but collects far more wins in his outings with better statistics. An average of his past two years translates to 39 wins/2.24 GAA/.926 SV% in 64 starts. One word describes this well; stud. Bobrovsky is going to be paid handsomely as elite level goaltending is at a premium. The Blue Jackets will do everything to retain their man in net but he will have plenty of suitors elsewhere should he enter the free agent pool. On what should be considered a strong postseason contender, Bobrovsky is in a great position to once again put forth quality goaltending that would be of high value to any owner in the fantasy realm. The price for his services will be high but it’s more than worth it to have an elite goaltender.

Brian Elliott/Michal Neuvirth

Plenty of hype surrounding the Philadelphia Flyers these days as there should be, with their group of promising young players both already on the roster and in the farm system. One thing that seems to not be mentioned whatsoever is the interesting complex in goal that has both netminders set to become unrestricted free agents. Now for the Flyers themselves, this isn’t a huge issue, as one would expect their number one goaltending prospect, Carter Hart, is ready to debut soon. As for Brain Elliott and Michael Neuvirth, both are playing for their future, so this will be quite an interesting timeshare to observe in 2018-19. Neuvirth has always flashed the ability to dominate but he cannot maintain health long term and most likely never will as he is 30 years old. Elliott, a little older at 33, is somewhat more durable but by no means a workhorse, just a solid serviceable netminder. Both have the utmost motivation to perform well this coming year as Hart will drive them out in due time, so view this campaign as a showcase for both. Gambles are worth it in fantasy, this could be a great timeshare to invest in later in drafts as it will be approached with apprehension.

Max Pacioretty

Poor Max Pacioretty, watching his team get worse and worse with each passing year of his prime. Already facing a feeble scenario in the coming season with Shea Weber out until December and Alex Galchenyuk traded to the Arizona Coyotes, Pacioretty has to be dying for a change of scenery while he can still be an effective goal scorer. The Canadiens just do not have the defensive corps to be a contender next year and Carey Price can only do so much on his own. If Marc Bergevin wants to somewhat rectify what has been a tumultuous run at the helm of this organization, he needs to trade the American winger while he can still receive something of value. The good graces of the puck were not with him last year, with his lowest overall shooting percentage the past eight campaigns and his 5-on-5 rate below six and a half percent. This is a dangerous shooter at the end of the day despite this. One has to expect regression towards the mean in 2018-19 either way, with surpassing the 20-goal plateau as a safe bet. Like all others listed here, he’s playing for his future and at 30 years old, this may be the last chance to score a lucrative, long term deal. He will surely fall in coming drafts and is worth gambling on to rebound despite the team around him currently.

Jake Gardiner

Auston Matthews, William Nylander, John Tavares, Mitch Marner, etc. etc. It’s always the same names when the Toronto Maple Leafs are discussed, yet not many mentions of Jake Gardiner’s 95 points from the blue line over the past two years. I surmise it’s because 1) he’s not a sexy name, 2) a late bloomer, and 3) assist-heavy production. Nonetheless, the man has arrived as a premier offensive producer from the back end, crossing the 50-point plateau in 2017-18. Though his PDO is high, it’s impressive that he was able to put up the point totals he did seeing less than 50% of his shifts start in the offensive zone. Looking back to 2014-15, his point totals have slowly but surely risen year after year, with increased shots, power play points and time on ice. The Minnetonka native is breaking out later in his twenties as is customary for defenders in comparison to their forward counterparts. Because he is buried behind so many household names on the Maple Leafs, he’ll never garner the attention he deserves and that’s where you the fantasy manager takes advantage in the draft. Producing more offense than the likes of Kris Letang, Ryan Suter, Dustin Byfuglien, and Dougie Hamilton, Gardiner should be more coveted by owners. This is an offensive defender with contract desires on his mind, only so many of them available out there, don’t miss out.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/frozen-pool-forensics/frozen-pool-forensics-pay-the-man-part-2/

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thrashermaxey · 6 years

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Ramblings: CAPS WIN!; Ovechkin, Seguin, Skinner, O’Reilly, and More – June 8

For the first time in franchise history, the Washington Capitals played in a game that could clinch them the Stanley Cup. Also for the first time in franchise history, the Vegas Golden Knights were facing elimination. One way or another, we were getting history on Thursday night.

The game started as maybe expected: prime scoring chances (outside of a post from Alex Ovechkin) were few and far between in the first period. Tomas Tatar had a good look from the slot but lost control on a toe-drag. Tom Wilon was, well, doing Tom Wilson things:

Tom Wilson just destroyed Karlsson. #ALLCAPS pic.twitter.com/eBB0HXbhMN

— Cristiano Simonetta (@CMS_74_) June 8, 2018

We were scoreless through 20 but things picked up in the middle period.

Jakub Vrana (my beautiful baby boy) got things going with a glove-high snipe on a partial break. That was replied by Nate Schmidt for Vegas. And then, who else but Alex Ovechkin would give the Caps the lead. While Ovechkin scored, this pass from Nicklas Backstrom was sublime:

.@backstrom19 sends some sauce to @ovi8 in his office for a 2-1 lead. pic.twitter.com/JfpsFDz4cU

— NHL GIFs (@NHLGIFs) June 8, 2018

Goals from David Perron and Reilly Smith had Vegas back ahead 3-2 for the third period.

The Caps seemed destined for victory in the final frame. A turnover by Luca Sbisa behind his own net led to a Brooks Orpik point shot, and Devante Smith-Pelly going skate-to-stick to tie it at three. Another Sbisa turnover in his own end a few minutes later led to a goal from Lars Eller, and that goal would hold up as the game-winning, and Cup-winning, tally for the Washington Capitals.

After so many years of disappointment, Washington finally did it. They finally made good on all the talent they’ve acquired and lost over the last 15 years. For the long-suffering fans, I’m sure it’s been well worth the wait. After all the seasons that flamed out, after the 600-plus goals without a Final appearance for Alex Ovechkin, after a Hall Of Fame resumé being put together by Nicklas Backstrom, after the goaltending uncertainty as recent as these playoffs, Washington and their fans finally have their long-awaited championship.

As mentioned in earlier Ramblings, the Conn Smythe was likely to go to a more prominent name like Ovechkin or Evgeny Kuznetsov – it ended up going to Ovechkin – but it was only fitting that Eller scored the Cup-clinching tally. He and his line mates gave this team a very good third line that they had been looking for all season. He played so well these playoffs. He earned it.

Congratulations once again to the players, the organization, and the fans. It was a great run and they fully deserve the result.

What a sight:

Alex Ovechkin hoisting the Stanley Cup pic.twitter.com/0sjr8XX7Jj

— Shayna (@hayyyshayyy) June 8, 2018

There'll be plenty of time to dissect the Vegas season later. It was an unbelievable year for them and their success really was immeasurable. Congratulations to them on their achievements. I'm sure it hurts to fall just short but it's still an incredible story.

The incorporation of advanced stats into fantasy hockey was inevitable. In a game where the best (or highest) numbers win, using predictive stats that maybe your league mates aren’t is an advantage that would be foolish to ignore.

The issue with the incorporation of advanced stats into fantasy hockey is parsing what is useful from what isn’t. Shot rates matter, but how much do they matter? And which shot rates matter the most? To that end, the focus in this Ramblings will be on daily fantasy hockey rather than season-long.

I hope everyone likes charts.

I have personally used it in the past but I wanted to see just how useful high-danger shot attempts (iHDCF) as defined by Natural Stat Trick were in relation to DraftKings points for forwards only. For those unfamiliar, this is how DraftKings scoring works for skaters:

3 points for a goal

2 points for an assist

0.5 points for a blocked shot

0.5 points for a shot on goal

1-point bonus for a short-handed point (goal or assist)

1.5-point bonus for a hat trick

0.2 points for a shootout goal

For our purposes, some stats were excluded from consideration. The following charts only consider goals, assists, and shots on goal. Short-handed points and hat tricks are few and far between, shootouts are not important, and blocked shots are more the domain of defencemen. Here are the charts for each season from 2013-14 through 2017-18 containing the r2 for individual high-danger shot attempts and DK points/game alongside just individual shot attempts and DK points/game. Remember, this is for all forwards and it is at all strengths. It is intended to be descriptive rather than predictive, as well:

Let’s look at a few things here.

First thing: OVI. Notice how there’s an orange dot to the top right of every iCF chart, which particularly stand out when you look at 3-4 years ago? Those are all Ovechkin. The one from 2014-15 stands out particularly when you realize the gap in total iCF between he and second place (Max Pacioretty) was roughly the same gap as Pacioretty and 96th place (Victor Rask). It doesn’t mean anything for the purposes of these Ramblings but it’s still amazing nonetheless.

More importantly, iCF outperformed iHDCF in each of the past five seasons in explaining DK points as defined for this exercise above. Not only that, but compared to five years ago, the relative gap in the relationship between iCF/DK points and iHDCF/DK points has grown. That means iCF in comparison to iHDCF has done a better job at explaining DK points that have occurred from 2016-18 for forwards than they did from 2013-16.

It’s at this point where another reminder has to be given: this is for individual shot attempts and individual high-danger shot attempts only. These aren’t on-ice stats where we take the team context into account, and these aren’t the expected goals models from Corsica Hockey. I simply wanted to look at individual shot attempts and individual high-danger shot attempts as defined by NatStat.

While the implications considered here are for daily fantasy, the implication for season-long is obvious. If iHDCF has a weaker relationship to DK points/game than iCF where goals/assists/shots are the only stats counted, it is a pretty strong signal to season-long points-only players that just sorting by iHDCF during the season looking for over/under-performing players to trade for/away, or scour the waiver wire, isn’t really the way to go. Sometimes the “old” ways are still the best, and at least when deciding to choose between iCF and iHDCF, the former is still the way to go.

Just for fun, I went and looked at the relationship between both on-ice CF and on-ice HDCF as far as DK points per game are concerned. On-ice numbers are just the shot attempt and high-danger shot attempt totals for a team that occur with a given player on the ice, not the actual shots from the players themselves. I won’t inundate everyone with a bevy of more charts, but there were a couple interesting things:

How much DK points/game was explained by on-ice CF diminished compared to iCF and DK points/game. Conversely, the correlation between on-ice HDCF and DK points/game increased compared to iHDCF and DK points/game.

It got to the point where there wasn’t really a difference between CF/HDCF and DK points/game. Unlike individual shot attempt rates, there is no need to really differentiate between on-ice shot attempt rates as far as DK points/game are concerned.

Long story short, whether a person uses on-ice CF or HDCF to explain DK points/game, it doesn’t really matter. The only difference comes with individual corsifor and individual high-danger corsifor.

Speaking of Alex Ovechkin and his insane iCF rates, I wanted to see what the gap between him and everyone else was over the last five seasons. Seeing as he’s so far above everyone else nearly every year, it just seemed like a necessary step. The results are, predictably, hilarious (via Corsica):

At all strengths, since the start of the 2013-14 season, Ovechkin has 3697 individual shot attempts. The next-closest forward is Tyler Seguin at 2639. Yes, he has over 1000 more shot attempts over the last five seasons as the next-closest forward.

That gap between Ovechkin and Seguin (1058 shot attempts) is larger than the gap between Seguin and the 62nd-most individual shot attempts (Brayden Scehnn) at 1046.

Ovechkin has more shot attempts over the last five seasons (3697) than Patric Hornqvist and James van Riemsdyk combined (3696).

What Ovechkin has done to the NHL his entire career is hilarious but what he’s done over the last five years, considering he’s supposed to be on the downswing, is amazing.

I must say, that also gave me an appreciation for Tyler Seguin. If you exclude Ovechkin, Seguin’s five seasons since getting to Dallas look pretty good. Not only is he second in all-strengths shot attempts, he’s second in all-strengths shots (133 more than second place), tied for second in all-strengths goals (173, with Sidney Crosby), 16th in all-strengths assists (211, one behind John Tavares), and tied for sixth in all-strengths points (384, with Nicklas Backstrom).

It’s also the consistency, as he’s the only forward to manage at least 25 goals, 35 assists, and 240 shots on goal in each of the past five seasons. Only three players even have four such seasons out of the last five (Benn, Crosby, Tavares).

Considering the minutes he plays, the elite players he plays with, and his history of production, it’s a wonder he hasn’t had one of those “everything goes right” types of seasons where he blows up to be among the contenders for the Hart Trophy.

Oh yeah, he’s also an unrestricted free agent after the 2018-19 season. It’s a wonder his name doesn’t come up in the media more often, but I assume that changes once the season starts.

TSN released their Trade Bait board for the summer a couple of days ago. You can view it here. Prior Ramblings have discussed both Phil Kessel and PK Subban so there’s no need to dig into it further here. A few things that seemed surprising:

Ryan O’Reilly

That the Sabres might want to trade someone with a high cap hit isn’t overly surprising. It would essentially be the start of their second (third?) rebuild, but with Jack Eichel, Casey Mittelstadt, and eventually Rasmus Dahlin in place, along with two first-round picks next year, the chance to further stock the cupboard with prospects/picks makes sense.

O’Reilly has been nothing but fantastic for the Sabres but maximizing the return now in hopes to build a contender 3-4 years down the road seems like the right move. I’m sure the Canadiens are inquiring.

Vancouver’s First Pick

I can’t see this coming to pass.

But if it does, LOL.

Jeff Skinner

Carolina seems intent on blowing it up; there are a number of Hurricanes skaters on this board. All their blowing up won’t matter unless they get goaltending that isn’t among the bottom-5 of the league for a decade. There are a lot of teams that probably think they can contend with one more goal scorer and Skinner is exactly that. The opportunity to see him in a true prime role is salivating as a fantasy owner.

Phillipp Grubauer

The Caps recently signed Ilya Samsonov, Grubauer is due for a raise, and the team is tight against the cap. The question is whether teams see him as a potential starter like Antti Raanta, Martin Jones, or Cam Talbot, or as a career backup. It’ll be very interesting to see where he lands.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-game-5-ovechkin-seguin-skinner-oreilly-and-more-june-8/

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yahoo-puck-daddy-blog · 6 years

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Puck Daddy Countdown: Tom Wilson, concussions and a huge cap increase

yahoo

7. Tom Wilson and also the refs and also the league

This is getting ridiculous.

Like, OK, the argument from the Department of Player “Safety” is that yes, the hit on Jon Marchessault was late but there was no head contact and it’s not technically illegal to hit a guy from his blindside.

But keep in mind, when Matt Cooke basically ended Marc Savard’s career, putting a Legion of Doom-style spiked shoulder pad into a guy’s chin was also technically not illegal. Didn’t change the fact that Matt Cooke had a long and prosperous history of dirty hits most guys in the league who, y’know, have respect for their opponents’ safety, wouldn’t have even tried.

Honestly, in what way is Wilson, a useful player who also happens to be an injurious dumbass, different from Cooke, a similarly effective checking forward who plays to injure? I would love to have that explained to me by a Capitals fan whose brain functions properly.

But that’s the thing with Wilson’s hit. It wasn’t technically anything more than interference but everyone (save for the Tom Wilson stans, who are all sicko freaks) agrees it was late, and y’know maybe I’m crazy here, but it seems like you should have a reasonable expectation to not get drilled at 40 miles an hour by a guy you never saw coming nearly a full second after you got rid of the puck, which is already 20 feet away from you. It’s a predatory hit, full stop. His eyes got as big as saucers; he had plenty of time to not make that hit.

Tom Wilson needs to be stopped. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

(Side note: Shouldn’t Ryan Reaves have beaten Wilson’s ass to death for that hit? Like, not just because a fight there is warranted in the Hockey Man’s mind, but also because if you get Wilson off the ice for five and only have to give up Reaves, that’s a great trade for Vegas. Hell, in theory Reaves’ presence in the lineup should have been a deterrent for that hit in the first place, but hey guess what: It turns out that’s not actually a thing.)

In soccer, if you commit multiple fouls throughout the game, a referee can give you a yellow card for any foul where he feels like, “OK, that’s plenty from this prick.” And Tom Wilson plays like a total prick, sorry. This guy has — or at least should have — long ago torched whatever benefit of the doubt he got from the league, but this is the Cup Final and a bunch of losers from Vancouver still cry all the time about the (deserved) Aaron Rome suspension seven years ago, so you can see why the league would want to avoid that kind of thing again.

Especially because if the NHL acknowledges the refs blew it on the Wilson minor (which maybe should have been a major?) they also must necessarily acknowledge the refs blew it even harder on the Reaves goal, which shouldn’t have counted.

And if there’s one thing the league really wants to do at all times, it’s make sure there’s nothing that would lead to refs being accountable for being horrible at their jobs. That’s playoff hockey baby!

6. Concussion stuff

Came out this week that a bunch of owners, I swear to god, acted like they had never in their entire miserable lives heard of CTE. “Never heard of it, what’s that?” kind of denials, which is pretty amazing considering all the concussion lawsuits that have been going on for the NHL and other major sports leagues. Like even if you don’t know exactly what it is, surely you’re aware that it exists — as in, you’ve literally heard it mentioned, ever.

Also, TSN uncovered a mockup of a concussion awareness poster the league put together that, as a joke I guess(?), said one of the symptoms was “feeling like a giant [sexist term for a wimp or a coward and you know the one I’m talking about].” They also removed language in the finalized versions of those posters advising players that numerous concussions can lead to dementia later in life.

Meanwhile, Johan Franzen’s wife is out here in the Detroit media telling the horror stories about her nice husband’s struggles with brain injuries.

Now, *putting my thumbs into my suspenders* I’m no fancy big-city lawyer, but it seems to me this case is not going to end well for the NHL. They’re not only bad actors on this stuff (obviously), they’re openly contemptuous of it. You’d think this many rich guys couldn’t be this stupid, but wealth strips you of your humanity and the NHL has a long, celebrated history of being horribly run.

So here we are.

5. *Lana Del Ray voice* Playing video games

Here’s my theory: If you put it out there that there’s a highly regarded prospect whose career was ruined by playing too many video games, you’re necessarily going to get every person whose team picked top-10 in the past five drafts to go, “Is it this guy?!?”

And then you have to go out there and say, “I said I wasn’t gonna do this for every player, but it’s not that one guy,” until you’ve done it for every player. So you might as well say the player the first time or — better yet — not say anything at all. Hmm.

This is like in fifth grade when someone tells you, “I have a secret but I can’t tell you what it is” and then also stands around letting you guess for 10 minutes before laughing and walking away. Dumb.

4. Melnyk!

Shout out to Daniel Alfredsson finally just saying everyone wants Eugene Melnyk to just sell the damn Senators already. Everyone hates him! Including the guy who’s running for mayor, which honestly is bound to be a fairly popular political position in town.

It’s like Melnyk keeping the team out of spite (or maybe to get some more vital organs) at this point. Pretty bad scene up there. Wonder if the NHL will try to force his hand here.

3. Narratives

Saw something on Twitter yesterday where they had Keith Olbermann on ESPN saying it might be wise for teams like the Oilers with mega-stars to conisder trading those elite players for several second-line talents.

You know, because of Vegas. And presumably because the Oilers sucked this year.

The premise of the argument is flawed because we know for sure Vegas didn’t just take a whole team of second-line guys. Maybe you say they were incorrectly valued as second-line talent, but that also doesn’t really address the larger issue of the argument that you should give up, say, Connor McDavid or Auston Matthews to get a handful of significantly less impactful players.

This is, I guess, Olbermann advocating for more Tyler Seguin trades. How did that work out for the Bruins, I wonder.

Anyway, you can expect this stuff to keep happening because Vegas is probably gonna win the Cup and people won’t look at the “why” of it, just that it happened. I love not learning anything from anything.

2. The Cup Final

Let’s hope tonight’s game is even 60 percent as entertaining as Game 1, but also like 150 percent better-officiated. This is good hockey.

1. A (potentially) huge cap increase

It was revealed before Game 1 that the salary cap could go up as much as $7 million next season. Not sure if that includes the players’ ability to use the 5 percent escalator (which would mean more escrow payments, but that hasn’t stopped them from both doing the escalator and then complaining about escrow).

But the idea that the cap could go up more than nine percent? Hoo boy. I’m specifically thinking about Vegas here, because they only have $50.2 million or so committed to 19 guys for next year.

And oh yeah, that $50.2 million includes David Clarkson, who they could LTIR the second they hit the cap ceiling, so in theory their actual cap number is closer to $45 million.

They need to re-sign Wild Bill Karlsson after his big season, as well as Colin Miller, Shea Theodore, and both Tomas Nosek and William Carrier. But what do you think those guys put together actually cost? Like $12 million? So they’re up to maybe like $57 million.

This team having like THIRTY MILLION DOLLARS to spend this summer? Come on, man. Imagine they take a run at that Erik Karlsson/Bobby Ryan trade again and pull it off. Imagine they take a run at Ilya Kovalchuk. Imagine they take a run at John Tavares. “You don’t pay state income tax” and (maybe) “We just won a Stanley Cup” is a hell of a sales pitch, no?

Get Karlsson and Bobby Ryan, that’s like $13.75 million. Big chunk of change but presumably Ottawa will take money back, too, just because they have to hit the cap floor at the very least. So maybe $10 million for those two in terms of net costs? OK, that gets them up to $67 million (or more) in cap obligations.

Give Tavares $10 million, whatever. That’s $77 million. Give Kovalchuk $5 million. That’s $82 million.

Plus you can probably finagle a couple sell-high trades to get some money off the books elsewhere. C’mon. It would be incredible.

(Not ranked this week: That Evander Kane deal.

When people said Evander Kane should be locked up, this is not what they meant!

Ha ha ha. Pretty good joke.

But for real, when you can give $7 million times seven to a 27-year-old who can’t stay healthy and has a career high of 57 points (set six years ago) and comes with a litany of what can be generously described as “off-ice issues” (multiple assault allegations) you gotta do it. Right?)

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Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

(All statistics via Corsica unless otherwise noted.)

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