#i still have to test this hypothesis more rigorously

[coffeebanana]

it's so hard for me to pin down what makes me FEEL THE THINGS when i'm reading/writing, but i'm starting to think my preferences boil down to "i like less narrative distance"

#kayla rambles #i still have to test this hypothesis more rigorously #but like. basically i think i don't get ATTACHED to the feelings smth is supposed to evoke if i dont see how it's affecting the characters #and that's personal for me because i've always been good at pushing feelings aside if i don't want to feel them #that's something i've worked at NOT doing ofc. but in writing it's still going to captivate me more if i REALLY feel what the character doe #because fiction is still a space where it's healthy for me to push aside feelings if i don't want to feel them 😂 #so in order to feel them i need to not be able to push them aside? kajsdbfsfkdj. which i LIKE #i also think narrative distance should be talked about a lot more in writing discourse #because i think it's something ppl (including myself) make use of implicity but isn't explicitly talked about as much as other writing tool #and now i'm sort of tempted to play with it as an exercise #like i want to write the same scene from different distances and see what fucks me up akjdfbsgdkj #recently a scene wasn't working for me and so i approached it from a different narrative distance basically and KFBSKJDB the transformation

[ukfrislandembassy]

I think linguistics has a huge methodological problem, in that while there exist some formalised methodologies for conducting investigations, it's clear that you don't have to pursue any of them to actually get ahead academically because linguists aren't actually as scientifically rigorous as they would like to think.

This has knock-on effects for more general experimental design, because it is extremely common to find studies which purport to prove/disprove some hypothesis, but when you actually look at the methodology they use you find that it doesn't actually provide evidence for the point they're attempting to make.

Of course the most common place to find this kind of stuff is in the Generativist literature, which is awash with claims the phenomena they describe is only explainable through the assumption of Universal Grammar/a Language Organ/whatever, when in fact non-innatist models work just as well. But this isn't the only part of the field that is susceptible to this.

So for instance there was a paper put out in Science recently that claims to have found evidence to counteract the idea that social structure can have an impact on the structure of the language (most notably explicated by Peter Trudgill in his 2011 book Sociolinguistic Typology, give it a read if you can find it). They take demographic data from Ethnologue and compares this with a couple of metrics which supposedly quantify linguistic complexity.

Leaving aside the (sometimes glaring) issues with the way the metrics are defined (they perhaps could have done with reading Dahl 2004 The Growth and Maintenance of Linguistic Complexity), we can already spot a major problem with using these correlations to make claims regarding the Sociolinguistic Typology hypothesis: the phenomena in question are explicitly diachronic in nature, but the data being used to assess them is solely synchronic.

What do I mean by this? It's been suggested that English morphology is less complex relative to e.g. German because of contact with the large numbers of Old Norse speakers that settled in the Danelaw. The trouble is, of course, that all those Norse speakers later shifted to English, so this large community of L2 learners won't show up in the data, despite the effects still being apparent after over 1000 years. Similar points can be made about most of the languages where these kinds of effects have been proposed: it was precisely the process of these languages spreading rapidly and acquiring a large speakerbase in a disorganised fashion that cause these changes to occur. Indeed, the authors specifically note that education and official language status are factors that would mitigate against the failures of L2 transmission that are claimed to cause these simplification effects, but don't then seem to acknowledge that this is a major issue for extrapolating the correlations anywhere further back than the 19th Century.

I think there are several things going on here which have led to this kind of thing being possible. Firstly, linguistics has always had an uneasy continuing relationship with the rest of the humanities and parts of the sciences (particularly neurobiology and acoustics), because it touches on so many of them at once. Secondly, and relatedly, we've had a fairly significant period where the core theoretical concerns of linguistics were essentially driven by a philosopher (Chomsky), which created a model of research that explicitly rejected empirical work and argued for much of its base assumptions (such as 'Poverty of the Stimulus') almost entirely by thought experiment. Empirically minded subfields continued to exist (Trudgill for instance made his career as a sociolinguist), but empiricism has been slow to make a return to theoretical linguistics. As a result, it seems to me that, at least in typology, people are still getting to grips with the idea of formulating hypotheses and actually working out tests that actually assess those hypotheses. Thirdly, because again of Chomsky, linguistics has had a strongly mathematical character in terms of its conception of language, and this again still lingers in the design of these kinds of studies. Everything has to be quantified in such a way that a simple computer model can work with it, but the trouble is there's frequently little room for the nuances of individual languages (e.g. Irish and Welsh are both counted on WALS as having the same value for inflection on adpositions, but actually a detailed study of the two languages reveals their systems work really quite differently, as I'll perhaps post on another time) which can therefore have knock-on effects for the analysis of any correlations thus derived.

#linguistics #rant

[unopenablebox]

long long long long long, boring, self-inflicted phd problems

I have ten days until I take my qualifying exam. This is formatted as a ~20-minute presentation to a group of faculty (not including my advisor) about a proposed research project with about a paper’s worth of experiment ideas. My department’s guidelines clearly state hat the proposed research project need not have any preliminary data or pilot experiments completed, indeed need not be a project you plan to carry out at all. The presentation is meant to show that you can come up with a project idea/hypothesis and experiments to test it and explain your thinking clearly; the remaining ~1.5 hours of the exam is spontaneous questioning testing your overall ability to think about biology and experimental methods more than the precise technical details of your particular project.

It is also standard, and officially stated as standard, to take between 1 and 2 months completely off of lab work in order to write the accompanying on-paper thesis proposal and study/practice for the prelim.

My boss wanted me to instead take no time off and do lab work the whole time I was preparing for this exam; I agreed to try this, and continued to do lab work for the first two weeks of my prelim prep time, but discontinued them after that because I was struggling to fit in the repeated major revisions my boss wanted me to make to my project while still doing lab tasks. I told her I needed to do this at the time and she didn’t really react. There were various repeated conflicts as we were editing my project proposal (which, incidentally, is supposed to be almost entirely my own work and not have heavy advisor input, lmao) because she wanted me to propose a more logically rigorous sequence of experiments such as one would have in a grant proposal (different format, different audience), and kept inventing different overarching models of the phenomenon I study, none of which I agree with, for me to build an experimental suite from. This included my boss demanding I reply immediately to her emails about an entirely new model while I was across the country attending my brother’s graduation, something she knew about and which I had had on the calendar for weeks. These major content revisions continued until two days before I submitted the written proposal, even though we had already been discussing these ideas back and forth for the previous ~3 months.

The two weeks after you turn in the written component are supposed to be for making and honing your slides, intensively practicing your presentation, and studying biology broadly to prepare for the questioning part of the oral exam, which happens at the end of that time. I couldn’t start this period precisely at the 2-week mark, which was last Thursday, because I was attending a mandatory lab retreat in which every hour was scheduled (and which, incidentally, involved a surprise non-optional ten-mile hike), so instead I am starting it today. I thought my day would be talking through some slide design ideas with my boss, followed by a day of assembling slides and practicing my talk.

Instead, my boss found me in the main lab space to tell me that 1. I need to be doing more experiments again during this period and shouldn’t have any trouble fitting them in with sufficient talk practice 2. I should really have preliminary data to show my committee, because otherwise they will only ask me about the technical implementation details of my project and not any of the theory/broad biology that is my strength. Initially she suggested I try to perform a particular (imo totally pointless and inane) pilot experiment in the next 10 days, but eventually concluded that that was probably not feasible. I remarked that I do have a couple of pilot experiments that we at the time considered to be the minimal proof-of-concept that this project is worth pursuing. She told me that because the images I collected weren’t good quality it doesn’t count. I tried pointing out the various things about the nature of this exam according to the department; she told me basically that I was wrong to think that, and even if I was right, I should be ignoring those requirements to focus on more experiments and getting a much faster turnaround on making and testing my reagents, because that’s what’s important. Furthermore I am way behind where I should be for the stage of grad school I am in.

Even if this critique is correct-- which, like, I am slow at doing experiments and make a lots of mistakes currently, I am probably a very bad experimentalist and very disappointing in this aspect of my graduate work, I think that’s probably quite fair-- the time to tell me that I need pilot data or my prelim will be bad was when I was scheduling the exam, because in that case I would have simply not scheduled it until I had data, even though that conflicts with the also-urgent department mandate that as many students as possible take their prelim exams before the start of their third academic year (which would be this fall & is why I scheduled this for June). I thought I was getting this out of the way so I can focus on improving at experiments afterward.

I honestly don’t think I can do the experiments she wants this week and also prepare for my prelim effectively. This would be true regardless because I guess I just suck at doing things efficiently, but is especially true now that I have received this last-minute public critique and had to leave work midday because I couldn’t stop crying whenever I thought about it, which oddly makes it difficult to do any work premised on thinking about my experiments or presentation.

I guess maybe there’s a secret consensus that actually everyone except the two faculty in charge of the program really think that you need preliminary data to support your proposal, and won’t accept it without that, and everyone really knows that you’re supposed to keep doing experiments the whole time you’re preparing for the prelim. In that case, I didn’t know this, nobody told me, and also the two faculty in charge of the program will tell you really really convincingly that this is how it’s supposed to work.

I have managed to be satisfactorily functional and efficient for maybe a combined month and a half in my first year of working for my advisor. I think I’m not going to get to the point where I'm good at my job. A more resilient person would take these critiques in stride, without being shut down by distress. A more efficient and effective person, willing to push and experience discomfort to achieve goals, would just do the experiments as well as the full amount of exam practice. A more assertive person would push back on this more strongly. I’m not any of those things and I don’t think I can get there quickly or without a lot of pain. I think I am not going to get to the point where her communicating her expectations and requirements to me does not confuse, scare, or sadden me due to my failure to meet them. I think I am too dumb and weepy for this and I think I should quit. I was kind of having a good time before the thesis proposal started because I was coming off of a mostly nondisappointing monthish, and I also just won one of the most prestigious fellowships in my field based on this project idea. Nonetheless I think the interactions I’ve had around this exam and experiments in the last month and a half are stronger evidence than either of those things about how this PhD is going to go anytime anything is difficult. I think I am wasting everyone’s time and money by continuing. I am so sad and embarrassed. I want to stop because this is hard and makes me feel bad.

#mostly written up to like. frame the components of the situation to myself. idk. again: boring #box opener #doctor worm

[applejoybantaculo-entrepmind]

Our journey: "It's just nowhere, and now we're here"

Hypothesis Definition

Since it's the last week before the final venture pitching, the following week was definitely a wonderful hustle for us. Our new concept was somewhat labor-intensive, and we had just recently come up with it. Starting from scratch, we had to work out again on our BMC model canvas, further and more rigorous validations and a draft of our prototype. Due to the simplicity and plainness of our proposal, we had so many doubts on whether we could pull off our idea or not. The sustainability of the business' potential to thrive, the moral character of our employees, and the administration of the company are just a few of the many factors we have had to take into account thus far. This is because we are still students and must put our studies first.

Hypothesis Testing

To test the ventures’ sustainability we had work more on the validation of our target customers which are the CMU students. We had conducted an online survey through google forms and imbedded there are the relevant questions which could help us conclude on whether our proposed business could sustain in the long run. We also browse for similar businesses and business proposals and there we find that there are already existing schools, universities and even communities who had ventured out this kind of business.  To ensure our employees honesty, we had decided to work on with its management on our free times during the day and will monitor it every 4 hours as possible.

Team Decision

It was intriguing to generate a positive response when we collected the data from the survey responses. As the final day draws near, our uncertainties gradually fade and our optimism builds. Despite the fact that our enterprise was relatively straightforward, we were confident it could be executed.  The team chooses to investigate the idea further and discover more flaws in order to be able to immediately refute it when we offered the idea. It was an in-depth conversation that made us value our endeavor more.

Teams Options

The team had no choice but to work toward a successful end with regard to the venture's viability over the final week. Up to the final presentation, we had done the best we could throughout the last week. The need to stand up for what we believe in and share the beauty of what we see made it necessary, not an option or a choice, to defend our business plan with brilliance.

Lessons

It was my delight to write the closing blog for the Entrepreneurial Mind course and to declare that I had enjoyed the subject. It has taught me the value of collaboration and partnership. It has helped me realize that you cannot succeed in the business world on your alone; you must a partner in order to succeed. I had shown that, with cooperation, an idea that looks unattainable may be just as likely as probable for future business owners.

#4th blog #sweetsuccess #final pitching

[whumperooni]

Mr.Natsuo being your teacher and you purposely flirt with other boys as wear really short skirts in his class to make him ✨jealous ✨and horny , he asks to see you after class and you get fucked on his table 🥺🥺 Sorry I’m on my period and I’m going feral 😃

No, no- never apologize for this! It makes me feral too ♡♡♡♡♡♡♡♡♡ Natsuo Sensei, please come get this pussy ♡

tags/warnings: teacher/student relationship, teacher kink, rough sex, unprotected sex, manipulation, improvised gags

A/N: I wrote Natsuo a bit more rough than I normally do, but I think it turned out okay;;; I also abused the words professor, doctor, sensei, and teacher;;;;

But. Ya know.

Enjoy! ♡

You were fucked the moment you walked into his classroom. Introduction to Human Anatomy and Physiology. 2:30 pm, Tuesdays and Thursdays. Led by Doctor Natsuo Todoroki. An insert into your schedule that seemed harmless enough. Interesting, surely. Something you were a little worried about- what if you turned out squeamish despite your love for all things horror and gore?- and something that would just fill your first semester of college. Harmless. Routine for your major. Nothing to give you any sort of fuss or throw you into a flustered little mess. Or, so you thought. Honestly, you hadn’t given much thought to what your professor might be like. You were more worried over having to share a dorm room with a stranger, if you could handle your class load, how hard it might be to adjust being away from home and all you’ve ever known. You suppose your mind’s eye might have conjured a vague image of a wrinkled and wizened old man with a stern gaze and whitened hair. You suppose you might have faintly imagined Doctor Todoroki to be a tired geezer in a lab coat and faded sweater vest. You suppose you might have had the predetermined, unconscious notion that your professor would be intelligent, elderly, stern and, well, someone who you would only think about in terms of being someone to give you tests and homework and lectures. You didn’t think that you would walk into the room to find a smiling, young man with a handsome face and thick thighs, big arms. You didn’t think that you would walk into the room to lock eyes with your professor and immediately go weak in the knees under a stormy gaze and a sunshine smile. You didn’t think that you would walk into the room to only have your breath snatched away, your cheeks flared with a flush, your heart forced into a thundering staccato.  You didn’t think that Doctor Todoroki would be hot. But, oh god- oh god- he’s gorgeous. Doctor Todoroki- well, Doctor Natsuo or even professor; he seems to prefer those much more than his family name- is, honestly, a living, breathing wet dream. He’s hot. He’s kind. He’s friendly. He’s funny. He’s perfect. The class that you thought would be only mildly interesting turns out to be your favorite. How could it not be when you’re blessed with a full hour of delicious eye candy, a teacher that’s so generous with his praise and has your spine tingling whenever he says your name? He’s so friendly and he’s so polite, too. The way he calls you Miss is a little old fashioned, sure, but it sends your mind reeling and your cheeks flushing- quick fantasies zipping through your thoughts as your thighs involuntarily push together. Your crush springs up from the moment you see him and it only gets stronger with each passing day. Little accidental brushes against you, the smiles he sends your way, the scent of his cologne whenever he leans over your table to correct an answer, the way his praise rings in your ears late at night- it all sends you spiraling. You’ve never had a crush quite like this before. Certainly not on a teacher. You want him, though. Oh, god, do you want him. Your roommate is the unfortunate one that has to hear you whine and moan over him- you’re much too embarrassed to admit your crush to your friends back home or any of your family; they’d be sure to scold you, to call you foolish and chide that you’re a silly little girl. She understands it, at least. That helps, keeps you from being too ashamed. “I mean, it’s no surprise you’ve got a thing for him,” she muses. “He’s young. He’s hot. Anyone would get a little crush.” You don’t like that thought, really. You don’t want to think about others lusting after your sensei. “Why not try shooting your shot?” At your scandalized look, she huffs and shrugs, rolls her eyes. “Oh, come on,” she scoffs. “No need to be such a good girl. Professors hook up with their students all the time. You just gotta be discreet.” “I can’t,” you protest- shaking your head and pulling your knees up to your chest. “And it’s not like he- he doesn’t see me in that kind of way.” “You don’t know that,” she counters with a click of her tongue. Another huff leaves her and it’s easy to see that her patience with the situation is waning. “Either feel it out or get over it or find someone else to moon over. There’s no point in moping and stewing.” You’re not moping. You’re just- you’re just- Okay, you’re mooning over him like she said. But you’re not moping. It’s just- it’s such a new situation for you. You’ve always had crushes on your peers- never anyone older than you by more than a year or two, never anyone in a position of authority over you. A taboo situation like this has never been your cup of tea- you’ve always been a good, sensible girl. Crushes on teachers have never been something you thought to entertain. But now? Well, now... You bite your lip and eye your reflection, nervously touch up your makeup in the bathroom mirror. It’s light and simple but pretty and sweet. Stalking Professor Natsuo’s social medias helped you gain the insight that he seems to prefer his women more natural and cute, innocent looking- all glossy lips and doe eyed, fluttering lashes with just the barest hint of mascara and blush. The false lashes might be a bit too much, but they make you look even more doll like and, that too, is something he seems to like. Pretty. Simple. Doll like. Sweet. Young. You think you’ve managed to put that look together rather nicely. The pleated skirt- just shy of rising above your knees- and the soft cardigan help, too, and, really, you don’t think you’ve ever looked quite so innocent before- even when you were a wide eyed, straight A, pure and untouched student back in high school. ...god, what are you doing? A groan leaves you and you nearly scrub the makeup from your face, nearly rip off the skirt and switch it out for the leggings you have stuffed inside your backpack. Nearly. You don’t think that this is really going to work. You don’t think that this is really going to draw any sort of reaction from him. And, well, maybe that’s what you need? Maybe you need to truly see that it’s a fruitless desire- maybe then it’ll shrivel up and away and you’ll be free from your sinful fantasies, free from the desire that has your head spinning. And, well, it’s been a while since you’ve dressed up a little, too- the rigors of college have had you leaning more toward comfort than style, have kept you too tired and busy to give time to makeup and skirts and a polished appearance. It feels kind of nice being all cute and attractive instead of frumpy and disheveled. ...you’re not going to change. You deserve to feel nice and you’re dying- desperate- to see how your professor will react to you looking nicer than the tired lump you usually display. Just act normal, you tell yourself as you head toward the class- clutching your textbooks tight to your chest. Don’t be too hopeful. Don’t be too excited. Don’t get disappointed. Just- just think of it as an experiment. That’s all it is, right? Just an experiment! You’re just putting a hypothesis to a test! (What a load of crap. It does help to calm your fluttering, nervous heart, though) You swallow as you approach the room and take a deep breath to steady yourself, bite your lip as you eye the open door. You can hear him rustling around and you know that the others will be around soon- you can’t just keep standing there like a dumbstruck, coltish fool. Another swallow, another deep breath. You walk into the room and fix a nervous smile on your face, chirp out a nearly stuttered “Good afternoon, Professor.” He’s faced away from you- broad back greeting your vision as he scrawls something across the blackboard. His head turns, though, and you get to hear an absent “good afternoon” replied back, you get to watch his gaze fall on you. His hand pauses. His snowy lashes blink once, twice, three times. Surprise flickers over his face- evident enough that you can catch it without doubt. His eyes flick down and back up so quickly that you almost miss it, dart away whenever your smile shrugs off its nervousness and grows ever so sweetly. You sit yourself down front and center- right in front of your sensei’s desk. He doesn’t look back at you as you organize your books and gear. He doesn’t look back at you as you primly cross your ankles and rest them to the side, drag a curious, studious gaze along his back. You had hoped for a response, but you hadn’t really expected it- Professor Natsuo has been kinder and more friendly and open than your other teachers, yes, but he’s still been professional. He’s never crossed any boundaries and you’ve never see him give another student the once over. This is...promising. Your cheeks stay flushed as the other students file in, but your anxiousness is gone away. Sure, that little look doesn’t really mean anything but now you’re...well. Now you’re curious. Desperate and needy for some validation of your silly little fantasies, but curious too. Could you...would he...? You wet your lips, unthinking, and keep your eyes on Doctor Natsuo throughout the class- analyzing his behavior, absorbing his words, taking in how his gaze finds you a bit more often than it usually does. Interesting. Encouraging. The next day you wear a skirt that’s a little bit shorter, don sweet mary janes and ankle socks decorated in lacy frills. Steel grey eyes dart to your legs more than once during the class and you even catch your professor tracing his eyes over your hips when he thinks you’re not looking- his reflection in the shining convex mirror hanging above your dissection table showing guilt, an almost nervous tilt to his lips. Oh, you’ve got him. But how do you proceed...? Your worries and frets and protests over taboo desires are long gone- they got dashed away with the first blink of his long lashes, with the first glance over he had given you. Really, you should feel ashamed over discarding your morals so easily, but it’s an exciting situation, isn’t it? It’s nothing you would ever think to find yourself in. But college is all about new, exciting situations, right? It’s about taking chances. God, you hope this is really a chance for you- you’ve never had the opportunity to play a coy game like this before. It’s...fun. High school would have been a lot more interesting if you had known this kind of thrill. You come home smiling ear to ear after a successful attempt at making Doctor Natsuo blush. (A sway of your hips, a flit of your slowly shortening skirts, a coo of his name as you thanked him for such an interesting lesson, a sweet smile and your fingers daring to skim ever so lightly and quickly over his wrist as you walked out of the classroom) The smile on your face has your roommate’s brow quirking, but one look at your outfit has her lips pulling into a smirk- something near gloating on her face. “You shooting your shot?” she asks, already knowing the answer. “Something like that.” You plop down on your bed, smile waning but still present- content as you let yourself get comfortable. She doesn’t offer any more conversation and you’re okay with that- mind fixating instead on how you could possibly further things with your sought after teacher. Things are good, for now- much better than you had ever thought they would be. The little forays into flirtation have been fun, exciting and they’ve even helped boost your confidence- something you hadn’t realized was sorely needed. It’s been fun. And it stays fun- the short skirts, the girly lilt you find yourself injecting into your voice, the soft makeup and sweet perfume, the way you always leave the class with wet panties and a vibrating exciting buzzing through you, the way your teacher’s eyes can’t help but dart over you, the way he breathes in just a bit deep when you get a little too close, the way he swallows whenever you so lightly purr his name- it all stays fun. Fun, but...frustrating. After a while it gets frustrating. Because he doesn’t do anything, not really. He stays a proper, good teacher- something you give props to him for- and he never returns your gentle flirtations, the subtle and silent invitations you push his way. He’s so...professional. It’s kind of a turn on- kind of. It’s mostly just...frustrating. You find your lips dipping into a pout more and more, find yourself sulky and downtrodden. Sure, this has been fun and interesting but you...you want more. You want him. You need him. You’ve needed him for so long it seems. You find your muffled ministrations in the shower getting more and more frantic- your fingers pumping into your cunt relentlessly but giving you none of the relief you seek. When you are able to cum, it’s always with a whimper of sensei or doctor or professor- sometimes even a daring Natsuo. You get restless and impatient, desperate and a little hopeless. If your teacher senses or sees that, he doesn’t say anything- in fact, his gaze seems to avert from the feverish look in your eyes, he seems to pull away from your bold, reckless attempts to get closer to him.  That hurts. That makes you angry. That makes you feel stupid. But he still wants you- or, at least, he still finds you tempting. You know he does- he can’t hide the way his eyes fall on you whenever you walk into the room, he can’t hide the quick glances he lays over you when he thinks no one else can see. You see his hesitance and want. You see it. ...if he’s not going to act on his desires, if he’s going to resist, then you’re going to kick things up a notch- someone has to; you can’t live with this stalemate any longer. It’s not a punishment, not really- it’s just throwing in his face what he’s missing out on. (My, whenever did you become so reckless and cruel? When did you become so desperate?) The ratio of boys to girls in the class is quite staggering- something one would think the university wouldn’t allow for fear of lawsuits. There are three boys for each girl- ambitious, studious, virginal, frantically horny things with expectations piled high on their shoulders and stress wracking their every thoughts. (It wouldn’t be unfair to say they you’re just like them- just sans the virginal part, double the stressed and horny part to make up for it) They’re good boys, for the most part- friendly and tired, nice but none of them quite to your taste or striking enough to jar your fixation from your sensei. Some of them are even handsome- which makes this a lot easier. “Oh, you brought me coffee? Thank you so much, Dai-chan! You’re so sweet!” The kiss you lay upon your classmate’s cheek makes him blush and fluster. It also makes your dear teacher stare- eyes wide and brow furrowed when you flick your gaze his way, his lips twitching as if he’s not sure if he wants to frown or not. The soft giggle you let out does bring a frown- something that deepens whenever one of the other boys comes over to grab your attention, try his hand. You should have thought of using them earlier on- they’ve been eager enough to try to flirt this whole time. Doctor Natsuo, for his part, doesn’t say or do anything- of course he doesn’t. But his usually happy temperament turns a bit tense, a little sour. He doesn’t lash out, not really, but you can see the way his teeth grit and his brow puckers whenever one of the boys dares to lay their hand on your arm, the small of your back. Good, you think- vicious and bitter, sour yourself. Get jealous. “What the fuck is up with Todoroki lately?” “Dude, did you hear how he snapped at Araka?” “Do you think something happened? He seems...stressed.” Your classmates trade hushed whispers as they flee the room, but you don’t think to join them- you stay quiet and soak in their quiet gossip, smile sharply without a look back to your grimacing, frustrated sensei. Just a little more. At this point, you’re not even sure what you want from him- an admittance of his own desires, him hurting and annoyed? You don’t know. You just want something to happen- you need something to break this little silent game apart. You think and think and think over what could raise the situation to the breaking point and, finally, you settle on something simple. The night before your Thursday class, you invite over one of your classmates- Eita; one of the more attractive ones, one of the less nervous ones. Your roommate is gracious enough to stay away (thanks to your offer of money for booze and weed and help with her homework) and you have the room all to yourself. Three beers and some easy flirtations, just a few small touches- that’s all it takes to get what you’re after. You don’t let him fuck you- he’s not worth it, nowhere near what you want- but you let him fumble his hands over you, are kind enough to wrap your hand around his cock while his lips frantically roam and suck over your neck. You don’t let him come until you’re absolutely sure that you have what you want. It reduces him to a whining mess- which, hey, is honestly kind of cute. You rebuff his sweet offers to “return the favor” and send him off with a kiss to the cheek, spend the rest of your night nursing a glass of wine and silently brooding- mind tired and body exhausted, your desires so restless. The next day you dress in a pleated, short skirt that just barely skims the middle of your thighs and fix your hair into a cute little updo, don your now signature mary janes and pull on a brand new pair of knee high socks. The sly comments you get throughout the day are annoying, but easily ignored. You’re impatient through the morning and it only gets worse as Doctor Natsuo’s class creeps closer. You spend the day jittering your leg and biting your lip, checking your phone every few moments and huffing to yourself, clutching at your arms and trying not to pace up and down the school’s halls. Finally- finally- it’s time for your favorite class. You have to force yourself to walk slowly toward it. You have to breathe in deep to quiet your pounding heart, to still your trembling hands. This has to spur something on. You walk into the classroom- skirt swaying, lips hiding your anticipation behind a smile. You ignore Professor Natsuo and make your way to Eita’s desk, plant your elbows on it and rest your chin in your hand, arch your hips up so your teacher can be teased by the sight of your soft thighs and curves, taunted by how just an inch or two of fabric prevents your panties from being flashed. (Is he looking? He has to be looking. He better be looking.) “Eita-kun,” you coo, sweet and loud enough for others to hear, “I had such a good time last night. We should do it again.” Eita’s eyes widen and his cheeks flush. You might enjoy it if you weren’t so distracted by the noise of a coffee cup slamming down and clattering on the desk behind you, if your breathing didn’t hitch so sharply at the fault in your sensei’s composure. Slowly, you straighten yourself to standing and turn around. Professor Natsuo’s face is red and flustered- jealous- when you look and his eyes are narrowed at you, his coffee spilled on the desk. You offer him a sweet blink and a sweeter smile, tilt your head so he can see the blossomed bruise tinting your throat pewter and mauve, a stormy and swirling blue. His eyes widen, his gaze darts behind you. Your smile grows. How do you like that, sensei? Your hands tremble just a little- from nerves, from excitement, from aching anticipation- and you clasp them behind your back to hide them from his gaze, lean forward and peer over his desk. “Are you okay, sir?” you ask him- chirping and so very sweet. “Do you need help cleaning that up?” He stares at you- disbelieving and still so evident in his shock, his envy. Some strangled noise chokes its way up and out of his throat whenever you flutter your lashes his way and smug amusement gathers in you as you watch his jaw tighten, his teeth grit as he tries to gather his composure once more. “No. Sit.” Oh. You’ve never heard him sound like that before. So authoritative, so stern. So hot. It’s your turn to let out a noise- something soft and almost curious, accompanied by flushed cheeks. You obey your teacher and sit down without a fuss- thighs pressing together and already growing damp, lip bitten and eyes half-shut as you watch him silently clean up the coffee. He doesn’t look at you throughout the whole lesson. He doesn’t look at you. He doesn’t call on you. He doesn’t smile or laugh or joke around. He’s...cold throughout the class- words iced over and posture rigid, his face holding no warmth at all. You gulp as you listen to him lecture and squirm in your seat- nerves starting to gather and grow despite the way you’re still so very wet between your thighs. You had wanted something to happen. You were determined to force anything to happen. But maybe- maybe you miscalculated. Maybe you fucked up. It’s something of a relief when the class ends. Usually, you like to linger for a few moments, like to stay just a bit longer than necessary so you can grab your teacher’s attention with a question or some sort of compliment over the lesson. Today, though? Today you shoot up from your seat without delay, begin to gather all your supplies as quickly as you can. At least...at least until he says your name. It’s firm, just a little icy. You stiffen at the sound and gulp, look back at him with wide eyes and a nervous smile. Before hearing your name part from your teacher’s lips would send you flying high, but right now...right now your skin is tingling with a giddy apprehension, your fingertips are trembling as you search his face for any hint of what’s to come. “I need to have a word with you,” Doctor Natsuo tells you- eyes boring into yours and keeping you frozen where you stand. “I, um,” you try to weakly protest, “I have to get to my next class...” “It won’t take long.” If he catches your wince, he doesn’t react to it. Professor Natsuo simply leans against his desk as the rest of the students file out- arms folded over his chest, sleeves rolled up to display thick forearms. And you? You stay rooted to the spot- heart pounding and eyes still wide, cheeks flushed and thighs damp. When the last student leaves, Professor Natsuo walks over to the door and closes it shut. Click. W-Wait- did he just- “D-Doctor Natsuo?” you squeak out. “What are you- what are you doing?” “I think I should be asking that question.” Oh, shit. Your teacher turns around slowly and the look he gives you takes your breath away. He looks angry and frustrated. He looks pissed. Pissed, but there’s- there’s something more- there’s- “What-” He takes a step toward you, you take a step back. “- do you think you’re doing, young lady?” The whimper that leaves you is equal parts anxious and needy- soft and unwanted. You probably shouldn’t find the growl in his words so hot. Your knees probably shouldn’t knock together and your pussy shouldn’t throb at the snap of young lady. But it’s- you didn’t expect him to be like this. But you- it’s- A tremble wracks through you and Professor Natsuo takes another step toward you. You bump against his desk whenever you stumble back and flinch at the wood that slams into your lower back, gasp and whimper once more when big hands fall to the table on both your sides, when your teacher brackets your trembling form and keeps you enclosed and captive. His eyes are narrowed. His cheeks are flushed. His cologne smells so nice up close, his height has your lashes fluttering and your breathing shuddering as you’re forced to tilt your head back to look up at him with wide eyes. “S- Sir?” “Don’t sir me,” he snaps, crowding closer to you. “I’ve lost my patience with you playing coy.” He’s lost his patience? Your mouth opens to shoot off something probably very stupid, but the words die as a big, cool hand finds your throat and forces your head to a tilt. The touch is beyond expected, has you crying out softly and gripping onto his shirt, almost hyperventilating. The pin prick retraction of your pupils is dramatic and so is your whimpering exhales but, god, this is not what you had expected. “You’ve been toying with me for weeks now,” Doctor Natsuo growls out, his fingers digging into the hickey on your neck. “All your short skirts and little touches, your shameless flirtations- you’ve been trying to drive me mad, haven’t you?” “Pr- Professor,” you whimper out, thighs rubbing together and a moan threatening to sound. “I just- I just wanted-” “You just wanted some attention,” he huffs out- his other hand gripping at your waist and his knee knocking your legs apart. “You wanted to see what would break me, right? That’s why you came in flaunting this today.” Your teacher’s thigh slots between yours and his fingers push deeper into your bruised flesh, his stormy eyes narrow and take in the way you shudder, how your cheeks flush even darker and your eyes start to turn just a bit glossy. A mewl leaves you- embarrassing and so needy, so helpless- and you whine softly after, try to turn your head away so he can’t see the way all your bravado and confidence is melting away into your selfish, needy, hopeless desires. “Tell me I’m wrong,” he demands- forcing your face back to him. He doesn’t look angry now- just frustrated- and your stuttered little gasp only makes his teeth grit, the way your thighs squeeze his makes his breath in sharp and deep. “Go on- tell me.” You- you can’t. You can’t deny him, can’t lie. Not now that things have finally boiled over, not now that he’s finally confronting you. Not now that you’re about to come just from the feeling of his thigh pressing against your soaked cunt. Not now that you’re so close to moaning and falling into a pleading, begging thing. “I- I had to,” you whine. “You weren’t- you wouldn’t-” “Tch.” The grip on your neck tightens and leaves you whimpering, leaves your fingers curling even tighter into your teacher’s shirt. “I was trying to be a good teacher,” Professor Natsuo grits out. “I was trying to keep from taking advantage of you.” Take advantage of you? You would laugh if it weren’t for your wettening lashes, the way your hips are aching and tightening from trying not to grind over your sensei’s thigh. “Sensei-” “Did you fuck him?” he interrupts- fingers dragging over your hickey and hand gripping your hip tighter, pulling you closer and making you whimper, tremble as your cunt is made to glide over his leg. “Don’t tell me after all this time you settled for a boy like that?” You shake your head the best you can- almost frantic with it, flushed and vaguely angry he would even insinuate that you would hook up with someone after you’ve put in so much effort toward him. “N- No! I wanted- I didn’t want- didn’t want him,” you whine, hips jerking despite yourself, a mewl leaving you whenever your teacher’s breath catches. “Sensei, please-” “Fuck.” The groan that leaves him has your lashes fluttering, your lips parting with a soft whine. The hand on your neck moves to your scalp and buries thick fingers in your hair, messes up your updo and sends your hairtie flying. He ignores the protesting noise that leaves you and looks down at you instead- eyes dark with a need that mirrors your own, nostrils flaring as his breathing turns heavy. “You are so naughty,” Doctor Natsuo growls- one hand curling his fingers into your hair, the other smoothing down your waist and to your spread legs. “Filthy little thing.” Filthy? You’re not- you’re not- The hand at your waist moves to loosen his tie and you whimper when he pops open his top button, when he shifts his hips forward and you feel his cock hard on your thigh. “Pl- please, sensei,” you breathe out in a beg- unplanned and so thoughtless, even overwhelmed. “I- I’ll be good! I won’t tell! I just want- I need-” You cut yourself off with a whine and rock against his thigh, look up at him with your wet lashes and flushed cheeks. He groans whenever you whimper and you clutch at him tighter, try to press against him. “I need you, sensei,” you plead- so soft and so desperate. “I need you. I- I promise I’ll be good. I just- I just-” You whimper once more and he groans, grips your waist and sits you on the table rough enough to make all his pens rattle and shake. He slots himself between your spread legs and buries his fingers back into your hair, presses his mouth against yours so fast and hard that it makes your whole world screech to a screaming halt. Your eyes widen and then slam shut, your body goes limp as you whimper and tremble from the way his tongue traces over your bottom lip. You allow your mouth to open and your teacher groans over it, slips his tongue inside and forces you to bend back as he presses closer toward you. Whenever he pulls his head back from yours, there’s a glistening of spit on his lips, a flush to his cheeks. You squirm under his gaze- suddenly so shy, suddenly so flustered- and whine as he stares down at you, arch your back and gasp whenever he forces your head to the side once more and presses his lips to your throat. It hurts when his teeth dig into the already tender, bruised flesh but it sends your mind reeling, has you mewling and reaching to scratch at his back. “Y- Yes! Please! Cover it! Make that mark yours!” The words fly out fast and without any thought, the begging comes from a place you didn’t realize existed within you. You don’t even realize that you mewled such a thing out until your teacher is groaning against your neck, until he’s muttering a, “Fuck- that’s a good girl” right against your throat. If you weren’t so swept up in the situation, you might feel embarrassed. But, you’re not- you’re just gasping and flushed and made even more needy from the praise, from the way your sensei’s hands drag down your sides to grip your waist. Tears blur your vision and a stuttered breath has you shaking, your nails digging deep into soft fabric and clawing over a broad back. “Doctor Natsuo please!” Another groan from your teacher and his hand slips under your skirt, his fingers push your soaked panties to the side and dip into your sopping cunt. “Fuck, you’re wet,” he growls, curling two thick digits and making you cry out. “Hey- shh, shh. Be good. You promised you were going to be good.” Be good? Oh, fuck, you wanna be good. You bite your lip as your teacher fucks his fingers deep inside you and try so, so, so hard to stay nice and quiet and good. He watches you as you try to muffle your whimper behind your hand and you shake from the way he licks his lips, from the way his lashes lower and his gaze turns approving. “That’s it, baby,” he mumbles. “Good girl. Fuck- turn over.” Professor Natsuo backs away and you can’t quite bite back your whine whenever his fingers leave, can’t quite inject any gracefulness in the way you scramble to comply. He yanks you back whenever you’re on your stomach- has your knees knocking against his desk and your hips arching up. There’s no warning when he grabs the plush flesh of your ass and spreads your cheeks wide. Your face flushes and a soft noise leaves you, your thighs press together as you squirm and whimper. “Cute,” he murmurs, squeezing your butt roughly.  “Even better than I imagined.” Imagined? Oh- oh. He- he thought of you. He fantasized about you. Sensei- sensei got off to you. Your cunny clenches and your teacher groans- low and deep and accompanied by the sound of a zipper being pulled down. When you look back over your shoulder at him, his fingers are undoing his tie and you’re left blinking in confusion as he wraps each end around his palms. “Professor...?” “Open your mouth.” You do so without hesitation- lips falling open and fingers curling against the wood of the desk. Professor Natsuo slips his tie between your lips and you whine as it digs into your cheeks, shudder whenever he gives it a tight tug. “Now be a good student for your sensei,” he instructs, gathering the tie in one hand and pulling out his cock with the other. “Quiet and good.” You nod the best you can, but it’s a promise you can’t quite keep whenever his cock nestles between your cunt’s lips, whenever the tip eases into your hole and then slams fully in. You cry out- spit wetting your teacher’s silk tie and his hand laying heavy across your ass, your head getting yanked back whenever he jerks on the tie. “What did I say?” He said- he said to be quiet and good. You have to be quiet and good. A muffled whimper leaves you and you rock your hips back, squeeze around your sensei’s cock with the softest little whine. He groans and his hips pap against you, his dick drives in deep enough to have your toes curling and your lashes fluttering. He’s- he’s big. Bigger than you thought he’d be. Bigger than you dared to imagine. The stretch is- it’s so much. But you’re so wet. You’re so needy. Tiny, strangled whimpers leave you as your professor falls into a rhythm and you shudder, do your best to fuck your hips back against him. That stops whenever he grips your waist with a grunt and you whine softly, still and let your teacher fuck you how he pleases. You take it and you love it, get pushed close to orgasm faster than ever before. You almost collapse when you come on his cock and you hiccup out a whine of pleasure, a muffled mewl of his name. Doctor Natsuo groans as your gummy insides spasm around him and his grip becomes bruising, his rocks get faster- harder. Feels so good! Feels so good! Sensei’s dick feels so good! “Shen- shensay!” “Oh, fuck- god- you’re so tight, baby. Good girl- you like sensei’s cock deep inside you? Is this what you wanted?” You whimper and nod- cheek scrubbing against the desk, cunt gripping his cock like a vice. He grunts and grabs onto your hips, forces your head up and back as the tie drags you and forces your back to arch in a tight, painful angle. Still feels good, though. Still feels like everything you wanted. You want- need- so much more. “Shoulda done this sooner,” your teacher groans out. “Shoulda- fuck!” He slams in you deep enough to have your eyes rolling back, hard enough to have your whole body shaking and your nails clawing across his desk. “C’mon, c’mon- take it- take it! Sensei is- Sensei is gonna fill you up- gonna give that needy cunt what it needs!” He’s gonna- he’s gonna- oh, god! Doctor Natsuo fucks into you faster and faster- the movements jarring you against the desk and making it rock, the jab of his cock rushing you to the height of pleasure again. You cry out as he slams into you- the tie falling from your lips as he drops it and forces you back onto the desk, slides his arms under you and grips your shoulders, fucks into you rough and deep and so, so perfectly. Warmth floods inside your pussy and you whimper as you’re filled with your sensei’s seed, twitch and come on his cock again- lashes fluttering and teeth digging into your lip to muffle your whine, honeyed insides milking his dick as if you need more. You do need more- you do. How could you have ever imagined one time would be enough to satisfy your fantasies? Your teacher pants and grinds into you- hot breath fanning over your cheek and his cock sliding out with a wet pop whenever he draws his hips back. You whimper at the loss but mewl when his fingers draw up your slit, slide back and down onto your knees as exhaustion slips over you. Fuck...fuck, did that just happen? A touch to your cheek has you looking up and you blink hazily at your sensei’s flushed cheeks, the shining and wet cock that he stuffs inside his trousers. “Satisfied?” he asks, slightly breathless and a groan hiding in his voice. “Going to be a good girl now? No more teasing sensei?” You nod, not quite thinking over the action or processing the words, only close your eyes when the slightest smile flits across his lips, when his fingers brush over your cheek and his gaze goes heavy lidded. “Sensei...” His fingers glance over your jawline and down low, stroke over your new hickey and bring a mewl. With your eyes closed, you can’t see the way his expression ripples with something hesitant and something curious, something...greedy. Strong hands help you up from the floor and you shudder as your legs tremble, press against his chest and look up at him with heavy eyes, a yearning that you can’t quite hide. He strokes your hair and it’s...nice. Unexpected from the way he reacted before, so very welcome. “...I was harsh with you.” The apologetic tone is also unexpected. Your professor seems to almost fluster, hesitates as he strokes your hair again and allows his grey gaze to look over your flushed cheeks and parted lips, the desire that you can’t quite hide. “...you were a good girl,” he murmurs, pressing a kiss to your forehead and making you flush even more. “...you gonna keep being good? Not tell?” Of course you’re not going to tell. Of course you’re not going to risk this. You nod without any hesitation and you’re graced with a smile, another kiss that has you wanting to melt against him. “Then in that case...” You blink and watch as he breathes in deep, tilt your head as your heart begins to flutter in your chest. “Come over tonight. I can give you what you want properly.” He wants...he wants you to come over? He wants to fuck you again? You could swear it’s almost a smirk that forms on his face whenever your eyes widen and your breath catches. “I- I...yes, please.” He hums and he steps away- leaving you to stumble slightly and look at him in wonder, an unending adoration that you had pretended wasn’t underneath all your lust for him. “Good. But for now...” Sensei takes a deep breath and then he smiles at you- this time a bit wry, a little amused. “You’re going to be late for your next class.” Next class? Oh- oh shit! A squeak escapes you and you hurry to gather up all your stuff, shove your books in your arms and race toward the door. “Hey.” You freeze as you grab onto the doorknob and nearly tumble into it, look back toward your sensei. “I want you to call me Natsuo when we’re alone.” He- he what? Oh. Oh. You open your mouth, but the trilling of the bell cuts you off and you’re left only with the time to nod and flush, mumble out a soft, “Yes, sir” before you have to rush out the room. You head toward your next class with weak legs and cheeks red from where your sensei’s tie pulled deep into your skin, hair a mess and your teacher’s- Natsuo’s- cum dripping down your thighs. You smile as you rush off to your next class- happy and fucked, eager to see what Natsuo has in store for you later that night.

#natsuo todoroki x reader #rooni's shit #tw breeding kink #Anonymous

[baeddel]

@mcclunky i found one paper (Steinberg et al., 2017) which actually follows up on the issue of it being true globally or not. Because “most tests of this model have been conducted in the United States or Western Europe”, so they used 5,000 participants from “Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Americas”, and found that the results were consistent. But what was consistent was “sensation seeking” behaviour, they didn’t scan anybody’s brain. It still makes the developmental explanation seem plausible to me, though, since it happens about the same everywhere.

Interestingly though this paper (Tooley et al., 2021) found that “childhood socio-economic status” (we would like to say ‘class’) is correlated with maturation speed. Specifically, children from wealther backgrounds had “protracted structural brain development and a prolonged trajectory of functional network segregation” ie. their brains finished maturing later. This would actually kind of support my little idea, although their explanation is that poorer adolesents experience more stress and therefore mature faster, which probably makes more sense.

All of that said, there seems to be a fair amount of criticism of both the ‘Dual Systems model’ of development and the behavioural connection. Steinberg et al. write that “the dual systems model has been critiqued as providing an oversimplified account of neurobiological development ... and being insufficiently attentive to the ways in which these brain systems interact” but then they handwaive it by saying that “by and large, research ... is consistent with this model.” A long paper from 2019 (Meisel et al.) argues that “the excitement generated by the imbalance hypothesis ... has not been meet with equal efforts to rigorously test this hypothesis.”

Yesterday I didn’t think it was true because I didn’t know anything about it, then I learned a bit about it and decided that it was true, but now I’ve learned enough about it to realize I can’t tell.

[atomicblasphemy]

Brief essay on the magical properties of human anatomy and physiology

Augustus Porter

Human Appreciation Society’s Journal

Abstract: The recent events that took place at the conformatorium left the Boiling Isles’ population with a myriad of doubts. Although for most such doubts seem to concern the continuation of our social structure and a naive undervaluation of our glorious Emperor’s legitimacy on the throne, for the Empire’s scientific community the point of contingency is another. Namely, the paradigmatic shift in our understanding of the relationship between humans and the use of magic. In this essay I shall investigate where our past errors stem from and raise hypothesis that aim at fixing them. Those will regard both the differences in the anatomy and physiology of humans and witches as well as the some of our potential misconceptions regarding the nature of magic itself. Moreover, I shall offer a thesis according to which human are, indeed, inherently capable of wielding magic without the use of subterfuges such as Luz Noceda’s glyphs.

Introduction and methodology:

As the Mr. Porter reported on the battle taking place a few weeks ago between our glorious Emperor Bellos and Luz “The Human” Noceda, the academic communities in Bonosborough and all other major cities in the Isles scrambled to come to terms with the disruption of centuries of accumulated beliefs regarding our extra-dimensional neighbors. We knew of their existence through a scattered assortment of artifacts provenient of their realm, sightings of their kind in the Isles (which always were taken more as the stuff of legends than fact, a conception now under scrutiny), and tall tales of witches’ adventures in their exotic, foreign lands. Of the last source, it is of particular note the recent reports of one Ms. Clawthorne, normally taken by the academy as little more than indulgent fiction. Now however, any unfounded skepticism gains the contours of esoteric stubbornness and it is our duty as makers of knowledge to use of the utmost rigor in any further statements regarding human nature. Therefore, firstly we need to reexamine our previous beliefs regarding magic itself. In a gross oversimplification, those could be described as: witches are capable of wielding magic; humans are not as they do not posses the magic bile sack attacked to their hearts right atrium. In other words, we placed that particular part of witch anatomy as the beginning of the causal chain that leads one to be capable of casting spells and enchantments. However, seeing how Luz “The Human” Noceda (hereafter to be referred as the subject), was able to perform magic nonetheless, we are now forced to face the question of which truly is the nature of magic. That is to say: is magic a prerogative of witchkind or is it merely an pervasive part of our which our bodies developed to manipulate.

In order to properly investigate this problem and hopefully create a new paradigm our methodological approach should be twofold. The first moment can be called the speculative stage, consisting in the bibliographical research of what human medical and scientific literature is available to us and ostensive interviews with both the subjects herself as well as witches that are part of her social circle. As for bibliography, the majority of it was supplied by a source that wishes to remain anonymous due to the questionable legality of her distribution of said tomes. Those seem to, fortunately, be especially up to date and thorough. It is with great joy that I announce that, as of the time of writing, the tomes used for this paper are being cataloged by the Bonesborough library’s staff and should be available for reference by time of publication. As for the interviews, those have been carefully transcribed by Hexside’s Human Appreciation Society and are currently in the process of editing.

The second moment, which would only make sense once the findings of the speculative stage are made clear to the reader, can be deemed the experimental stage, consists in using the subject for testing the theories resulting from the speculative stage, be it in a passive or an active manner. By “passive experimentation” I merely mean the observation of her interactions with magic as she grows further acquainted with our world, growing to become part of it. The active testing would consist in guiding the subjects behavior, mostly in terms of her diet, in order to ascertain the validity or falsehood of the theories resulting from the speculative stage.

The validity of our statements about humans:

As it is know, the scientific endeavor and the validity of its statements depends on the available empirical evidence. In this sense, the first step is the mere observation and subsequent description of nature and it’s phenomena, only then one should feel confident enough as to identify patterns. Those patterns, if resulting from a large enough pool of observed phenomena should provide predictability to future phenomena as long as they have similar causes and happen under similar conditions as the ones observed prior, that is: the ones used for the identification and description of the aforementioned patters. Should those predictions prove true through experimentation in a controlled environment – that is, the manipulation of the causal relations that should result in the expected phenomenon – then we can be confident in the validity of our statements.

The seldom nature of our kind’s interaction with humans, however, renders any scientific method of this sort impossible. We simply have no access to a sufficient pool from which to obtain the necessary evidence. Thus we can only trust in testimony, legends and literature that made its way across dimensions. In this sense, however, the arrival of the subject in our lands is quite possibly the greatest breakthrough in the history of humanistic studies.

Background on magical and medical assumptions:

Tracing back centuries, the magic bile sack attached to a witch’s heart has been believed to be the main source of magical power. The apparent lack of such in human anatomy, which is in fact corroborated by human medical texts, being pointed as the culprit for their lack of magic. Therefore,  the role of  the magic bile sack has always been substantial in our understanding of witch physiology and of the nature of magic itself. Little process has been made over time, however, when it comes to our understanding of the nature of the contents of the bile sack, despite the best efforts of some of the greatest minds in both healing and potion making, the scientific community having to resign to speculation and the observation of the effects, rather than the causes. The common assumption, therefore, has always been that magic was something of a biochemical matter: the contents of the magic bile sack being metabolized by the witch’s body, thus producing magic.

This premise of magic’s purely bodily causes can no longer stand. After all, the evidence of an individual lacking the magic bile sack proves that magical feats are still possible whilst refuting that their origin stems from the caster’s body. Moreover, the use of glyphs, designs made in paper or other materials, as a form of both witches and humans casting magic shows that we can feel justified in believing that magic stems, instead from the environment. To quote the subject herself in one of the interviews: “magic is everywhere.” In other words, the glyphs seem to function as a form of conduit or magnet for the magic in the surrounding, thus turning it into the spell intended by the caster, loosely in accordance to the design made on what we can call the casting medium.

This pervasive nature of magic in the Boiling Isles, however, is still insufficient to explain the physiological function of the magic bile sack when it comes to magic wielding. After all, should that anatomical feature be irrelevant for such, the subject would not need to resort to her glyphs for wielding magic. However, we can no longer see it as a sine qua non condition for it either. Moreover, it raises a further, particularly poignant question as to what is the full extent of humans’ magical potential, if they can come to wield magic without the assistance of glyphs, wands, or staffs.

Before moving forward it is worth noting that since all accounts seem confirm the absence of manifestations of magic in the human realm, the causes for it are also likewise absent there. In other words, we can feel comfortable stating that magic itself is a particularity of this world.

Speculations on the magical bile sack:

If we are to assume the belief that magic stems from the Boiling Isles’ environment as valid, to which there seems to be no evidence on the contrary, then we have to divulged into the topic of the magic bile sack’s contents. As proven by observations in a number of necrotic investigations – a method humans seem to have a much firmer grasp on than ourselves, calling it by the name of autopsy –, the fluids therein do present a number of magical properties, being potentially usable for potion magic, although such practices are famously considered as taboo. However, no attempts at deconstructing it as to further understand it’s composition have been successful thus far. This could possibly be due to such contents being little more than a condensed form of the magical humours present in these Isles’ air, water, dirt and their respective product. That is to say: once the magic pervasive in the environment is absorbed into a witch’s, it is metabolized through the digestive and respiratory tracts, taken to the magical bile sack by the circulatory system wherein it becomes condensed and stored.

Being a species native to a land where magic is a feature would be, should one of humanity’s exponents be correct in his theory of evolution – by the name of Charles Darwin -, then further be cause for the magic bile sack’s peculiar placement in witch anatomy. By being next to the heart  it would be able to transfer the condensed magic to a part of the witch’s body through which magic can be properly cast. More often than the body part in question being the left hand, having a direct arterial connection to the heart. It is also worth noting that small, nearly imperceptible, canal like structures have been observed connecting the interior of the magic bile sack to the inside of the right atrium, thus lending further credence to the present hypothesis

However, those are but speculations hinging on even prior speculations. We cannot as of yet assess their validity. Experimentation should be conducted in order to it achieve such status.

Speculations on human anatomy and physiology:

A way for conducting such experiments would be by placing a test subject which lacks the magical bile sack in conditions that should ideally favor the accumulation of the, for lack of a better word, magical goo present in the magic bile sack. Should after sufficient time under such conditions the subjects starts displaying magical capacity associated with their bodies – that is, without the medium of objects such as glyphs, wands, or staffs - , then the theory proposed in the previous section is proven as valid. However, should merely this be enough we would be able to witness demons casting spells as a common occurrence. The test subject for the experiment should follow a particular condition: the presence of an anatomical feature that serves to clear function in their bodies. Demons lack any such feature, humans don’t.

In all the available human medical literature, it was possible to observe the presence, at the juncture of the small and large intestines, of a small protrusion, finger like in shape, that by all accounts has no known purpose in the human body. If the aforementioned human theory of evolution is to be believed, at some point in the development of humans as a species that feature did serve some unknown purpose. However, with the lack of a need for it, it atrophiated, eventually achieving its current status. The humans named it the appendix, and as per the subject’s testimony, a common human ailment, in particular in her own family, is something called appendicitis. To the best of this researcher’s knowledge, it consists in a potentially fatal inflammation on the appendix, leading to severe pain and demanding the surgical removal of that body part and subsequent treatment with some type of human medicine called “anti-biotics”.

Given how similar human and witch anatomy are in terms or organ distribution in the thorax and abdomen safe for those two particular features and the shape of the ears, we have no reason to discredit Darwin’s theory, further implying that there would be a common link between humans and witches. That is to say that, at some point, both species were capable of wielding magic, even if by differing means (as will be discussed further). At some point, however, this possibility was taken from humans by unknown circumstances. In other words: there is no reason for us to refute a priori humans potential for casting magic through their bodies; however, without further experimental evidence, we cannot yet wholeheartedly support such theories as of yet.

It is important for us to note as well the differences between the magic bile sack and the appendix. As previously stated, by being attached to the heart – that is, the core of the vascular system – the concentrated magic humour contained in the magic bile sack is allowed to travel through the witch’s whole body, especially the arm, thus allowing the caster a great amount of control over the outpouring of magic associated with each given spell. Given the position of the appendix however, such dexterity and autonomy over magic wielding is unlikely for humans. Being placed at the end of the digestive tract, the movements of the magic humours are likely to only be capable of following the anatomy of the bowels. In this researcher’s opinions, the most probable option is that the movement of magic, once leaving the appendix, is highly dependent on the movement of the digestive vapors, with the casting of magic being concomitant with the emanation of such gases. As for solid rejects, I do not dare speculate.1

As a further note on this hypothetical means of spell casting supposedly inherent to humans, it should be stated that, if witches and humans were at some point competing species, the lack of dexterity and precision in human’s magic casting would not present itself as disadvantageous. After all, considering how, following the theory on the environmental origins of magic from earlier, magic enters the body by being either inhaled, eaten or drank by a magic caster, that would mean that the trajectory between the absorption and the condensation and further storage of the magic goo would be much shorter in humans than it is in witches. Moreover, seeing how it would be stored in an organ associated with digestion, the condensation of magical humours into magical goo should happen more efficiently than in an organ such as the heart, allowing for a greater degree of purity. As a result, the spells cast by humans – it is unlikely that the imprecise character of this magical outlet would allow for complex operations such as enchantments – would have a notably larger amount of raw magical power imbued into it. As an illustration, the reader can think of the magic cast by witches as akin to a bow and arrow – precise, highly correlated to the individual caster’s prowess -, whereas magic cast by humans would more similar to a trebuchet – it will achieve it’s intended goal all while also causing significant collateral damage.

Experiment design:

As the reader most likely was already able to extrapolate, any testing of the hypothesis and theories stated here will demand that the testers induce as much consumption of, supposedly, magic imbued food and drinks on the subject. The reason for this approach is to heighten as much as possible the input of magical humours in the subjects body, thus accelerating the production of magical goo in the appendix. Fortunately, the subject seems to like our local cuisine and to also have a considerable appetite.

However, in order to avoid any nutritional dysfunctions on the subject due to neglect of some as of yet unknown particularity in humans’ dietary needs, a “human diet” should also be observed. Naturally our source of knowledge as to what a normal human meal consists of is the subject herself. As per her instructions efforts to replicate items such as “borgars”, “pizza”, “chicken tendies”2,, , and “Dr. Pepper” using inputs available in the Boiling Isles are, as of the time of writing, underway. However, under no circumstances should be allowed the consumption of milk or any dairy products.

A diet constructed around those two principles should be able to expedite the subject’s magical growth over a still unclear amount of time, thus allowing for meticulous observation, all while ensuring her well being and health. As the scenario progresses, updates on her condition should be submitted for publication in this very journal.

Conclusions:

As of now, we are admittedly afloat in a sea of speculations. The paradigmatic shifted brought about by the knowledge that humans are capable of casting some form of magic has forced us to reevaluate our understanding of the human species, their world, their culture, and what all of that means to witchkind. But more importantly if forced us to reconsider ourselves, what we know about our very world is now put into questioning, and we should not rush to the quickest answer in fear of the unknown. Instead, we should practice patience, allow time to offer us the much needed evidence   for the construction of a new, more sturdy foundations for our beliefs on our own world, our bodies, and reality itself. We live in exciting and interesting times indeed.

We have cause for optimism, however. But further speculations on this matter should only come accompanied by certainty on the premises.

Bibliography:

The land of the beasts with big meaty hands: a grimoire of my adventures (and misadventures) in the human world. Clawthorne, Edalyn – Owl House Free Press, Bonesborough, 30 AB.

Comprehensive glossary of demonology: their differences, abilities, and why you should tremble beneath their feet. Of Demons, King – Owl House Free Press, Bonesborough, 38 AB.

The wonders of the human realm: tales of their many incredible artifacts that should definitely buy, don’t even think about it. Clawthorne, Edalyn – Owl House Free Press, Bonesborough, 40 AB

Les passions de l’âme. Descartes, René – Librairie Philosophique J. Vrin, Paris, 1964

Getting rid of a human infestation in three easy steps, and what to do if they all fail. Clawthorne, Edalyn – Owl House Free Press, Bonesborough, 50 AB

How to train your human: a pedagogical guide. Clawthorne, Edalyn – Owl House Free Press, Bonesborough, 50 AB.

You’re an interdimensional mom now: challenges of caring for a magicless child in a magicfilled world. Clawthorne, Eda – Owl House Free Press, Bonesborough, 50 AB

First hand accounts on a teenage human’s magic puberty: tales of horror. Of Demons, King et Clawthorne, Edalyn – Owl House Free Press, Bonesborough, 50 AB

The differences between humans and abominations: which ones can and cannot be dissected. Park, Willow – Human Appreciation Society’s journal; Hexside Publications, Bonesborough, 50 AB

Can humans be considered demons? A zoological debate. Of Demons, King – Owl House Free Press, Bonesborough, 50 AB

75 thesis against humans and their deceitful nature. Blight, Amity – Blight Family Editions, Bonesborough, 50 AB

Between black and white, the inherent subjectivity of a witch’s judgment of humans and other musings. Blight, Amity – Blight Family Editions, Bonesborough, 50 AB

Repentance: corrections on my previous stance regarding humans. Blight, Amity – Blight Family Editions, Bonesborough, 50 AB

A treatise on witchkind’s superiority over humans (Unabridged) – Captain of the Banshees, Boscha the – Human Depreciation Society Quarterly; Hexside Publications, Bonesborough, 50 AB

An introduction to Claude Lévi-Strauss’ “The elementary structures of kinship”. Blight, Amity. Blight Family Editions, Bonesborough, 50 AB

Second treatise on witchkind’s superiority over humans (Unabridged) – Captain of the Banshees, Boscha the – Human Depreciation Society Quarterly; Hexside Publications, Bonesborough, 50 AB

Interdimensional relationships and taboo: essays of speculative anthropology. Blight, Amity – Blight Family Editions, Bonesborough, 50 AB

No u: a response to Boscha’s treatises; vol. I - XV. Blight, Amity – Blight Family Editions, Bonesborough, 50 AB

No u: a response to Amity Blight; vol. I – XVI – Captain of the Banshees, Boscha the – Human Depreciation Society Quarterly; Hexside Publications, Bonesborough, 50 AB

What to do when a human disrupts on circle of friends, do you befriend them? A practical guide – of the Bard Track, Skara – Human Appreciation Society’s Journal, Hexside Publications, Bonesborough, 50 AB

Weaponizing your younger sisters thing for humans: a practical guide. Blight, Emira et Blight, Edric – Blight Family Editions, Bonesborough, 50 AB

Where did we go wrong? Identifying and stopping your child’s human infatuation in the early stages. Blight, Odalia et Blight, Alador – Blight Family Editions, Bonesborough, 50 AB

Getting away with murdering your entire family because they won’t stopping getting between you and your human: a completely fictional novel with no bearings in reality whatsoever. Blight, Amity – Blight Family Editions, Bonesborough, 50 AB.

Peaceful conflict resolution in a family setting. Blight, Emira et Blight, Edric et Blight, Odalia et Blight, Alador – Blight Family Editions, Bonesborough, 50 AB

Honing your time management skills: writing an absurd amount of pages in an impossibly short time span. Blight, Amity – Blight Family Editions, Bonesborough, 50 AB.

My diary (only read it for science). Noceda, Luz – Personal archive

The origin of species. Darwin, Charles – John Murray, London, 1859

Beware of humans: The round eared menace. Bellos, Emperor -  The Empire’s Imperial Press, Emperor’s Castle, 4 AB

The adventures of the Good Witch Azura. Coceda, Namilla – Cambridge University Press, Cambrige, England, 2010 - 2020

How to identify and hunt humans: correspondence with Lilith Clawthorne. Mora, Kiki - The Empire’s Imperial Press, Emperor’s Castle, 37 AB.

The guerrilla tactics used by humans: a collection of military essays. Steve, The - The Empire’s Imperial Press, Emperor’s Castle, 49 AB

Human psychology and how to best exploit it. Fearbringer, Grometheus The - Hexside Publications, Bonesborough, 50 AB

Capitalism: human’s best invention. Grimhammer III, Tibbly Tibbly – Blight Family Editions, Bonesborough, 36 AB

The benefits of the human prison system and how it can applied on witches. Wrath, Warden – The Empire’s Imperial Press, Emperor’s Castle, 42 AB

Speed reading. Porter, Augustus - Hexside Publications, Bonesborough, 50 AB

On the passions and errors of the soul. Galen, Claudius – Ohio State University Press, [R E D A C T E D], 1963

The pedagogical challenges of educating a multi-track human student. Bump, Principal -  Hexside Publications, Bonesborough, 50 AB

Coping with regret. Bump, Principal - Hexside Publications, Bonesborough, 50 AB.

Leviathan. Hobbes, Thomas – Andrew Crooke, London, 1651

The many benefits of using humans for ransom: a case study. Clawthorne, Lilith - The Empire’s Imperial Press, Emperor’s Castle, 50 AB

Biochemistry for dummies. Moore, John T. et Langley, Richard – Wiley Publishing Inc., Hoboken, 2008

Apologizing to a human for using her for ransom: a memoir. Clawthorne, Lilith – Owl House Free Press, Bonesborough, 50 AB

Never letting your sister forget she used your human daughter for ransom: heartfelt poetry. Clawthorne, Edalyn – Owl House Free Press, Bonesborough, 50 AB

Anatomy and physiology for dummies. Rae-Dupree, Janet et Dupree, Pat – Wiley Publishing Inc., Hoboken, 2007

A life of repentance under a human’s rule:Notes on their surprisingly forgiving temperament. Clawthorne, Lilith – Owl House Free Press, Bonesborough, 50 AB

Commentary on Nicoló Machiavelli’s complete works. of the Construction track, Mattholomule – Human Appreciation Society’s journal; Hexside Publications, Bonesborough, 50 AB

HOOT. Hooty, Hooty – Hoot, Hooty, ????AH

NOTES:

1 - As to not interfere with the experiments and not face backlash from the interviewees, other than the subject herself, it is asked of the reader to deny any attempts by the subject to gain access to the present paper. We urge the reader to show both scientific solidarity and sense of humor.

2 - It should be noted that the subject seemed particularly adamant as to the importance of this particular item, leading to the belief that these “chicken tendies” are vital for human subsistence.

#THE OWL HOUSE #gus porter #humans #charles darwin #nuclear warfare #canon luz is canon #as per the latest imperial edict milk is now a regulated substance #the boiling isles' space program is just luz on top of 50m metal tube wearing astronaut gear

[didanawisgi]

U.S. still hasn't ruled out lab accident origin for Covid because China hasn't been transparent. U.S. officials haven't shown any evidence pointing to a lab escape, and scientists call the scenario unlikely. The U.S. wants China to share information.

By Ken Dilanian, Carol E. Lee and Keir Simmons

“WASHINGTON — Despite a finding by the World Health Organization that the Covid-19 outbreak in China most likely first infected humans through an animal host, the United States is still not ruling out the possibility of a laboratory accident, as officials continue to sort through intelligence about the Chinese government’s initial handling of the outbreak, American and Western officials told NBC News.

A spokesman for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence told NBC News the agency is standing by a public statement it issued in April, which said that American intelligence agencies "will continue to rigorously examine emerging information and intelligence to determine whether the outbreak began through contact with infected animals or if it was the result of an accident at a laboratory in Wuhan."

U.S. officials have not made public any evidence pointing to a lab accident, and most scientists who have studied the matter said that such a scenario is unlikely. But Biden administration officials have faulted China in recent days for what they have termed a lack of transparency around the origins of the virus. And they have criticized how the WHO last week presented the initial findings of a visit to Wuhan, where the virus is believed to have emerged.

WHO investigators, after visiting three labs in Wuhan, said last week they found no signs that a lab accident could have caused the outbreak. One WHO researcher told reporters at a news conference the organization was halting any further inquiry into that theory.

But the director general of the WHO appeared to walk back that definitive statement a few days later, saying that "all hypotheses remain open and require further analysis and study."

A Western intelligence official who has seen classified material told NBC News the U.S. has substantial intelligence that has not been made public about actions the Chinese government took — related to the Wuhan lab and other issues — that were designed to obscure the origins of Covid-19 and conceal its early impact. A former U.S. official who has also seen the intelligence agreed that it was significant, if inconclusive.

Both sources said the material, which they did not detail, did not add up to evidence that a lab accident occurred. But they said it raised enough circumstantial questions that analysts have been unable to rule out the lab scenario. U.S. intelligence officials declined to comment.

The intelligence, which includes documents, paints a picture of a Chinese government initially trying to hide the burgeoning pandemic from the outside world.

"There is no doubt that, especially when Covid-19 first hit but even today, China is falling far short of the mark when it comes to providing the information necessary to the international community," Secretary of State Anthony Blinken told NBC's Andrea Mitchell this month. "All of the — that lack of transparency, that lack of being forthcoming, is a profound problem and it's one that continues."

The lab theory

The so-called lab theory refers to a hypothesis that the Covid outbreak emerged in Wuhan as a result of an accidental release from one of the labs working with coronaviruses in that city — perhaps from an improper disposal of lab waste or an employee who got infected at work and then infected others.

U.S. intelligence agencies and scientists say they have ruled out that Covid-19 was human-made or intentionally released. The lab theory hypothesizes an accidental release of a virus found in nature by researchers and brought in for study.

Download the NBC News app for full coverage of the coronavirus outbreak

Scientists say that scenario is unlikely on its face, because animal-to-human transmission of viruses are common, while lab accidents are relatively rare. The key scientists studying viruses in Wuhan say they were not studying the Covid-19 virus, which had not been previously documented in nature before the outbreak.

Intelligence officials counter that one key lab, the Wuhan Institute of Virology, removed from public view a database of 22,000 virus samples for security reasons, and has not allowed a detailed look at the lab's notes or other records.

They say it's suspicious that the virus outbreak arose in Wuhan, a hub of virus research in China, while the bats that commonly carry coronaviruses are typically found in caves a thousand miles from that city.

They note that scientists also have not found a host animal that could have transferred the virus to humans, after a year of looking.

WHO researchers acknowledged last week that the "wet" or live-animal market in Wuhan, which was originally thought to be a likely source of the outbreak, may not be the whole story, since early cases have been identified in people who had no connection to the market.

The WHO team included international and Chinese scientists. They say their summary report will be published within weeks.

One member of the team, Australian microbiologist and infectious diseases expert Dominic Dwyer, told NBC News that the scientists didn't get all the data they sought from the Chinese government, and that team members disagreed about various aspects of what they saw and heard.

"There were tense moments and disagreements and, you know, arguments about what things meant and so on, between both sides," Dwyer said. "And some of that is just because the data isn't strong enough to give a single, a great conclusion."

Dwyer says the team was given "aggregated data," as opposed to detailed, line-by-line case information, for the 174 known Covid cases from Wuhan in December.

Case information would enable researchers, he said, to "go along to a person who had this disease and say, OK, you know, how old are you? You know, what sort of work do you do? Who's in your family? What do you do for your hobbies? You know, do you go to the market? What sort of market do you go to, you know, what's your general health, like, all of those sorts of things to try and understand where a person had been, and where they could have been exposed to something."

Several members of the WHO team told NBC News they were provided with just 13 DNA sequences from the 174 cases. Of those, five had small genomic differences, suggesting a wider pool of virus, Dwyer said, though the sample was so small it was hard to draw conclusions.

"Actual infections is probably much higher than the 174," Dwyer said.

WHO investigators tasked Chinese researchers with surveying the wider community, he added.

According to Dwyer, the Chinese researchers said they examined the cases of 76,000 people presenting with fever or pneumonia from Oct. 1 to Dec. 31, 2019, and found 92 people with Covid-like symptoms. Of these, they tested 67 people, Dwyer said, and found no Covid-19 antibodies.

Those tests were carried out in January 2021, more than a year after the potential exposure. Scientists don't yet know how long Covid-19 antibodies remain in the body after infection.

Pompeo and the lab theory

The Trump administration, and in particular, then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, repeatedly said there was significant evidence in support of the lab theory.

On Jan. 15, five days before the end of the Trump administration, the State Department published a "fact sheet" making a series of allegations about the Wuhan Institute of Virology laboratory.

Among them: "The U.S. government has reason to believe that several researchers inside the WIV became sick in autumn 2019, before the first identified case of the outbreak, with symptoms consistent with both COVID-19 and common seasonal illnesses. This raises questions about the credibility of WIV senior researcher Shi Zhengli's public claim that there was 'zero infection' among the WIV's staff and students of SARS-CoV-2 or SARS-related viruses."

The fact sheet added, "Despite the WIV presenting itself as a civilian institution, the United States has determined that the WIV has collaborated on publications and secret projects with China's military. The WIV has engaged in classified research, including laboratory animal experiments, on behalf of the Chinese military since at least 2017."

One former official familiar with the intelligence on which Pompeo's statement is based said it was less than rock solid, and that some officials were surprised that the secretary aired it publicly. Pompeo did not respond to requests for comment made through his spokesman.

Dwyer told NBC News the WHO team inquired about the testing of researchers at the WIV lab and was told that there were standard tests of all staff in April 2019 and then again in 2020. They were told those tests were negative. But it's not clear when the 2020 tests were carried out, again raising questions about whether Coronavirus would be detected. The head of the Wuhan Institute of Virology Dr. Shi wrote on July 31, nine months after October 2019, that she "recently" tested all WIV employees and they were negative.

"I think the jury's still out," State Department spokesman Ned Price said last week about the origins of Covid-19. "Clearly the Chinese, at least heretofore, have not offered the requisite transparency that we need."”

[dragons-bones]

FFXIV Write Entry #13: To Tend the Flame

Prompt: wax | Master Post | On AO3

Notes: Spoilers for Shadowbringers MSQ and spoilers for the Binding Coils of Bahamut side story.

She first noticed it during the battle at Laxan Loft, but it’s not until they reach Il Mheg that Synnove really paid attention to the new aether curling and weaving amongst her own.

Oddly enough, it’s not the Lightwarden’s. That had felt ice-sharp and rotten-soft at the same time, white to the point of pain and not singing but screeching of broken glass and denied, raging hunger. No, that aether sat in the core of herself, sulking and bitter, but otherwise not influencing her spells.

No, this aether was…warm. Fiery, but the welcome flame of a campfire in the night, or the hearth of a well-loved home. She outright dismissed it as Ifrit’s aether leaking from Ivar; that was too distinctive and too familiar. This new aether was familiar, too, and the way it intertwined among her own, yet remains separate, reminded her of a primal’s lingering touch, so clearly at some point she had come into contact with it.

There was a niggle of an idea at the back of her mind. The hypothesis was set; now to observe.

First: the Dreadwyrm’s aether coalesced much faster. Previously, she had needed to trance at least twice to build up sufficient reserves to (grudgingly) indulge Ivar and use him as the core to summon Demi-Bahamut to the field. Now she only needed to trance just the once. Ivar, at least, was delighted by this change, her bloodthirsty, rage-filled boy.

(And at least she’d stopped having panic attacks every time she’d needed to activate that array.)

Second: the new, strange aether reached peak coalescence only after she had finished coalescing Dreadwyrm aether, and then dissipating it with a summon of Demi-Bahamut. In fact, she couldn’t even tap into Dreadwyrm aether again until she’d tranced with the new aether.

Third: while trancing with the new aether, it affected two of her spells. Outburst was a relatively new creation that the aetherochemistry department had only recently finalized; Synnove had offered to field test it shortly before she and the others had been whisked away to the First. That spell fluctuating due to an unexpected outside influence was unusual, considering how rigorously the Guild tested and developed their arrays, but not impossible. Ruin III, however, was an old standby, a tried and true blast of pure, unaspected power reserved for the most talented members of the Guild that had been in circulation for years. The only arrays more stable were the ones for the rest of the Ruin series and the standard carbuncle summons they gave to the baby arcanists (who weren’t insane overachievers like herself who had to write her own from scratch).

And it wasn’t just subtle effects. No, both Ruin III and Outburst were unaspected; arcanists liked working without the interference of specific elemental affinities, or alternatively with an equal amount of each kind so that they all canceled one another out, it made the math behave. (There was a bloody good reason she’d run into the wall on her artificial aether infusion project: working with elementally aspected aether was essentially working with literal fucking chaos and sometimes it was fun, but sometimes it just sucked.) This new surge of primal aether turned her respectable, unaspected spells into roiling balls of fire and pitch.

Ivar, of course, loved it. Heron and Alakhai, who also preferred to fight in the melee, not so much.

Fourth: the aether sang, as it always did. It reminded her very strongly of the Dreadwyrm aether’s dirge-like ballad, but this aether’s song was slower, more solemn. Wordless crooning matched with the resonant tones of an Ishgardian pipe organ. It was a funeral hymn: no rage, only deep, boundless sorrow, and a bottomless well of love.

Observations complete, she compared the data sets the night they vanquished Titania, absently rubbing her chest every so often as she did. The carbuncles curled up around her in various stages of patience—Galette in her usual spot around her neck, Tyr loafed next to her, Ivar sprawled in her lap and reaching up to either bat at his sister’s tails or his brother’s ears—as she set up the portable readout device she’d thankfully packed back on the Source. Synnove flipped open her grimoire sitting on the ground next to her on the opposite side of Tyr, paging through until she got to the first page of the arrays for Ivar’s passive sensor programming.

Humming quietly, she took the channeling stylus from her mouth, and placed the tip on the activation sigil. The array lit up, and so did the readout device, pulsing out a hologram that scrolled through the most recent aether readings. Synnove squinted as she skimmed the data, scratching Tyr’s neck until the big carbuncle turned into a happy puddle of brass purrs.

Then she called up data from nearly four years ago.

“Synnove?”

She looked up, only a little startled, to meet Alisaie’s worried gaze.

“Is everything all right?” said Alisaie.

Synnove looked back at the data, gnawing on her lower lip as the implications of the data sunk in. She let out a slow breath and said, “Don’t know yet. Fetch your brother, please, the both of you need to see this.”

Alisaie, Twelve bless her, didn’t hesitate, just turned and hurried off to find Alphinaud. She returned with her twin in a handful of minutes to the spot out in the fields surrounding Lydha Lran that Synnove had settled in to review her notes. By the time they reached her, Synnove had pulled up both data sets onto the viewer at once. She gestured, and the siblings both sat in front of her.

“So,” said Synnove, setting down her channeling stylus carefully to ensure the tip still touched the activation sigil of the array, “I’ve noticed a peculiar bit of aether mixing with my own recently and no, it’s not the Lightwarden’s.”

Alphinaud and Alisaie’s looks of alarms quickly subsided, in favor of concern and interest as Synnove outlined for them the changes she noted. Then she pointed to the readout device.

“The display on the left is the recent data Ivar’s passive sensors have recorded,” she said. “I’m sure Galette and Tyr’s would read the same, but since Ivar is the only one installed with the Dreadwyrm Protocols, he has the most complete set.”

Alphinaud scratched Tyr behind the ears, as the big carbuncle had crawled forward for pettings during Synnove’s explanation. “And I note that it’s exactly the same as the display on the right,” he said.

Synnove hummed agreement, rhythmically running her hand down Ivar’s back from his head to the base of his tails

Alisaie sat with her arms crossed, just staring at the displayed data. Finally, she said, “The data from the right is from the Binding Coils, isn’t it?”

“It is,” said Synnove, quiet and serious.

“That’s,” and Alisaie swallowed, “that’s Phoenix’s aether.”

“I believe so.”

Alphinaud didn’t look as rattled as his twin, but Synnove had known him long enough to spot the tension around his mouth and eyes. “Why now?” he said. “You’ve been using the Dreadwyrm Protocols for a number of years by now, so why has Phoenix’s aether remained dormant for so long?”

“My best guess,” said Synnove, “is because we’re here on the First. Eorzea is upfront about the fact that Dalamud’s fall and Bahamut’s rampage unquestionably fucked up the continent both on a physical and metaphysical level. The rest of our home star claims suddenly only having a single moon in the sky after the second one blew up a few miles directly above the surface had no effect on their magicks and aether, but we can all three agree that they’re probably trying to save face to a bunch of foreigners how mucked up things got for them, because that is a load of chocobo shite.”

Alphinaud coughed, smothering a smile, as Alisaie momentarily forgot her distress and snickered loudly.

“Bahamut’s aether didn’t just insinuate itself into everyone at Carteneau,” continued Synnove, continuing to pet Ivar and reaching up with her other hand to scratch behind Galette’s ears. Both carbuncles purred happily. “And it didn’t just insinuate itself into everyone in Eorzea, though I’ll grant that Eorzeans have the highest concentrations. No, Bahamut’s aether is everywhere on the Source; it’s permeated every rock and tree and beastkin and Spoken.

“It’s always been too easy to coalesce Dreadwyrm aether; when I’ve run through my own aetheric reserves, I can still use the Protocols without much fuss. If I was only ever using the aether comingled with my own, I should run out, but I don’t. Thus, I have to be unconsciously drawing upon the Dreadwyrm aether all around me.”

“But here on the First,” said Alphinaud, thoughtful, “Bahamut’s aether only exists in you and us Scions. I have noticed you still have had no issues using the Protocols, so we can assume you are able to draw on the Dreadwyrm aether within us and the others.”

Synnove inclined her head to him. “Just so.”

“So, with a finite amount of Dreadwyrm aether,” said Alisaie, “Phoenix’s aether is finally detectable, and even able to exert influence and become usable with the dissipation of Bahamut’s. And with how quickly and how strong it coalesces, it needs to be dissipated in turn before repeating the cycle.”

“That is my theory for what’s occurring,” said Synnove. “And, of course, I’ve noticed it steadily growing stronger and more stable since this began. No doubt it’ll continue to do so, although at the moment I couldn’t tell why.”

The twins shared a long, silent look. Alphinaud raised a single eyebrow. Alisaie nodded.

They turned back to her, their expressions serious, but the gleam of excitement was in their eyes. Synnove recognized it and grinned; bless their nerdy hearts, her darling little sibs.

“What would you like to do with this, Synnove?” said Alphinaud.

“And how can we help?” said Alisaie.

“Well,” drawled Synnove, “we’ll need to build some arrays to control how Phoenix’s aether warps my spells when I’m trancing with it. And then, I believe, we should prepare for the day when his aether has grown strong enough that Phoenix will fly the skies of the First as he once did at Carteneau to vanquish Bahamut, with all the prayers of Eorzea to guide him. If you two are all right with that?”

The twins dove forward to embrace her; Galette squwaked unhappily at being jostled, but they ignored her. Synnove returned their hugs, smiling, and tucked them in under her arms. Tyr immediately came over to flop across all three of their laps.

“You’re the only one I’d trust with it,” Alisaie said.

“We couldn’t think of anyone better suited,” added Alphinaud.

“Thank you,” Synnove said, as heartfelt and honored as she could. “Now then, my fellow nerds, let’s get to it!”

#ffxivwrite2019 #dt's writing #final fantasy xiv #spoilers #ffxiv spoilers #5.0 spoilers #oc: synnove greywolfe #synnove's carbuncles #alisaie leveilleur #alphinaud leveilleur #my three favorite things: #worldbuilding #bullshitting how arcanima works #and FEELINGS

[wardoftheedgeloaves]

My whole thing is, the reconstruction should be as sturdy as possible. It should be rigorously tested before it’s included in textbooks specifically (I’ve seen Proto-Semitic in Ringe & Eska 2011 for instance) because that’s what’s taught to students, and they’ll come to accept the reconstruction as factual and rigorously tested even if it isn’t, most of the time. Most of this of course it due to lack of familiarity and the same can be said for historical linguists particularly who comment on reconstructions outside of their realm of familiarity. They’ve heard of the reocnstruction, perhaps read on it a bit, but they aren’t intimately familiar enough to draw actual conclusions. This being said, I might just be more anal than others in this regard and it’s probably why I’m saying all this.

(previous discussion clipped; this is from @injerabae)

I think this gets at a very, very broad problem that exists in a lot of fields. When is it acceptable to tell lies-to-children or lies-to-undergraduates? 

Take, for example, the Semitic interdentals *θ *ð *θˀ (where ˀ here is a glottalized/emphatic marker more readable than an underdot, agnostic to phonetics.) These are reconstructed as such mostly on the basis of Arabic, where they yield /θ ð ðˤ/--Arabic being widely assumed to have the most conservative consonant system.

Now an Internet acquaintance of mine has said that some Semiticists are questioning this. *θ yields a sibilant in basically every Semitic language except Arabic, Ugaritic (where it is preserved) and Aramaic (where it gives /t/ or [θ] secondarily under begadfekat). The shift *θ > s/ʃ is...pretty rare. The only non-Semitic example I can think of is Proto-Algonquian, where *θ > š before *i(:) or *y--but that’s palatalization. Also *θ > s before a consonant in some Algonquian languages like Massachusett and Cree.

(well, there’s also...eastern dialects of Arabic have *θ *ð > s z, right? But it’s still not common; usually you see the reverse).

(edit: also apparently Western Tuscarora; Proto-Tuscarora *θ is from Proto-Iroquoian *ts and it is tempting to say that Western Tuscarora just has a different reflex, but from skimming Julian 2010 I think it really is a bona fide retraction.)

So what’s going on? Well, my acquaintance says some Semiticists think the interdental series might actually have been postalveolar affricates /tʃ dʒ tʃˀ/. This would fit with proto-Afro-Asiatic reconstructions, as far as those hold. Ugaritic is written in cuneiform, and I...think? its sign for /θ/ is not found in Sumerian, Akkadian, Hurrian or Hittite, so we transcribe it as such on comparative grounds; its phonetics aren’t clear. So perhaps postalveolars fit the evidence better.

...but! The handbooks still reconstruct interdentals. And you don’t want to throw every hypothesis that appears in a conference paper into the handbook, at least not with large, well-studied families like Semitic, lest it be cluttered with pyysalolainen höpöhöpö. So ultimately I think this is where footnotes come in--just put a footnote in in the text and say that X and Y (1987) reconstruct postalveolars instead because of (two-sentence blurb summarizing the reasons), but this has not gained full currency; for more information see X and Y (1987)...

Ultimately you’re up against the fact that it takes time for new hypotheses and analyses to be dissiminated across the field and accepted. Time isn’t a perfect acid bath in historical linguistics, but--as in most fields--it’s a pretty good one and there isn’t really a good alternative.

(but it can be slow; laryngeal theory in PIE didn’t become universally accepted until Pokorny died, over ninety years after Saussure first wrote it down! Also, if you’re a dialectologist or a typologist or in some other field that orbits historical linguistics but does not itself make you an expert in the stuff you need to cite, then your instincts are going to be to follow the existing consensus. This is a good thing; imagine it were otherwise, and then imagine that that otherwise was the normal practice in medicine or civil engineering!)

[iamliberalartsgt]

Ivan Allen College Professors Discuss 'Game of Thrones'

Twenty years ago, Janet Murray, Ivan Allen College Dean's Professor in the School of Literature, Media, and Communications, predicted many of the narrative shifts depicting in sprawling stories like Game of Thrones. (Photo Credit: Rob Felt/Georgia Tech Institute Communcations)

The Game of Thrones may be nearing an end for viewers of the hit HBO series, but it is sure to live on in the classrooms of Janet Murray and Richard Utz, Ivan Allen College of Liberal Arts professors who find the show an ideal platform to help students learn to untangle a complicated world.

Murray, Ivan Allen College Dean’s Professor and director of the Prototyping eNarrative Lab, sees evidence in the series' sprawling plots of the very changes in narrative structure she predicted more than 20 years ago in her seminal book, Hamlet on the Holodeck.

“The confusion we feel in viewing programs like Game of Thrones, and the immersion that draws us to them, are signals to me that these stories are outgrowing the classic television format,” Murray said.

Utz, professor and chair in the School of Literature, Media, and Communications, sees in the show "rich opportunities to examine our current interplay of cultures, politics, and social mores," and plans to use it as part of an upcoming class in the new Global Media and Cultures program.

Read more about what these professors have to say about Game of Thrones below, then visit the Georgia Tech feature A Science of Ice and Fire to see a video featuring Mariel Borowtiz, a Sam Nunn School of International Affairs associate professor, and two Georgia Institute of Technology graduate students and their simulation of what might have happened had the legendary Carthaginian general Hannibal had a dragon like Daenerys Targaryen's.

Merging Media: Breaker of (Narrative) Chains

More than 20 years ago, in her seminal book Hamlet on the Holodeck, Janet Murray, the Ivan Allen College Dean’s Professor, predicted the rise of a new genre of deeply complex narrative driven by the marriage of television and computer.

It would be what she called the “hyperserial.” Plot, backstory, and detail too fine to showcase in an hour-long drama would pass back and forth between television screen and computer screen, high-speed digital transmission of content would enable new ways of accessing stories, and narrative would, as a consequence, grow richer and more complex.

Nowhere has the promise of complex narrative storytelling been so fully realized as HBO’s adaptation of George R.R. Martin’s A Song of Ice and Fire novels. So it is no surprise that Murray and her students in the college’s Digital Media program have used those stories to test her hypothesis.

“The confusion we feel in viewing programs like Game of Thrones, and the immersion that draws us to them, are signals to me that these stories are outgrowing the classic television format,” Murray said.

In recent years, Murray’s students in the Prototyping eNarrative Lab (PeN Lab) have prototyped a companion app meant to help fans keep track of the dozens of characters, backstories, alliances, and antipathies that make up the dizzyingly complex world of Westeros. Working with Murray, they also have built an application to help viewers track the many plots of Game of Thrones, and the fates of its characters.

The companion tablet app provides a moment-by-moment window into a Game of Thrones episode, automatically serving information about onscreen characters and their relationships without user intervention.

The Digital Story Structure Project graphed the fall and rise of characters, showing, for instance, the opposite fates of Daenerys Targaryen and Jon Snow early in the series, followed by the merger of their fates in season 7.

“I am interested in prototyping the future of narrative,” Murray said. “Computers give us a new vocabulary of representation, and I believe this will lead to ever more complex storytelling. We need more complex storytelling to understand the world and share our understanding of complex systems and multiple chains of causation, multiple points of view, and multiple possible outcomes.”

Maester of Humanities

Richard Utz, professor and chair in the School of Literature, Media, and Communications sees in Game of Thrones "rich opportunities to examine our current interplay of cultures, politics, and social mores.” (Photo credit: Rob Felt/Georgia Tech Insitute Communications; Game of Thrones image courtesy HBO)

To a medievalist like Richard Utz, professor and chair in the School of Literature, Media, and Communication, Game of Thrones is engrossing, if unsettling, fantasy, one of the most complex narrative structures ever attempted, and a “highly valuable admission ticket to the study of contemporary media.”

One thing it is not, he said, is “medieval.”

“None of the reasons for Game of Thrones’ popularity — attractive world building, thriller-fiction pacing, complex characters, sexposition, bait-and-switch plot, escapist fantasy, intricate power play, clever play with archetypes, diverse female characters, guilt-free barbarism and violence, Sopranos-like family drams — is intrinsically ‘medieval,’” Utz said.

While the global fascination with Game of Thrones is sometimes seen as a recruitment opportunity by scholars of the Middle Ages, focusing on the books and HBO show from a traditional medievalist’s perspective is too limiting and self-serving.

“It is a global phenomenon. It is the most widely watched television show in the world ever,” he said. “While it is set in a fictional past, it raises a host of issues about our past, present, and future, and provides rich opportunities to examine our current interplay of cultures, politics, and social mores.”

Utz has written about his aversion to the use of novelist Martin’s world as way to lure students into studying the Middle Ages.

“Classes on the Middle Ages rarely need advertising because of the general cultural love affair students have with medievalist topics,” he said. “Game of Thrones needs to be studied as a contemporary media phenomenon that uses a vague ‘medieval feel’ as one of its attractions.”

In fact, he finds it notable that one of the main characters, Sansa Stark, began the series seeking the trappings of the romantic ideal of the Middle Ages — princesses, knights, and all — only to see that fairy tale viciously taken from her at every turn.

“Watch out for Sansa Stark in season 8,” he predicted. “She will play a major role in how the story unfolds, as will some of the other women whose paths have been transformed throughout the series. Like in classical drama, it’s the survivors who, having learned many difficult lessons, are the real heroines of this story.”

But he does see Martin’s stories and especially the HBO adaptation as an excellent place to meet students where they already are — invested in stories that are indelibly shaped by our current experiences, while retaining the enduring fascination with all things premodern.

“The premodern is an eternal mirror. On the one hand, we like to shudder at the otherness of it to reassure ourselves that we have long overcome its negative features,” he said. “On the other hand, we get to go back, fictionally, to a life that seems so much easier and unburdened by the complicated rules of contemporary civilization. Both responses are illusions, but that doesn’t mean we won’t entertain them.”

Utz plans to use the series as a case study in an upcoming class in comparative media cultures, as part of the new Master of Science in Global Media and Cultures program in LMC and the School of Modern Languages. The program is designed to prepare students to pursue professional careers that require advanced training in communication, media, language, and intercultural competency.

Utz believes that the narrative complexity of Game of Thrones is exactly the right realm within which to model the kinds of practices his students need to succeed and find fulfillment in their future jobs.

“The global city of Atlanta is in dire need of a workforce educated to be skilled communicators across cultural and linguistic divides,” he said. “I am planning on an approach that will confront my students with a wickedly complex scenario that allows for a deep understanding of multiple governmental structures, leadership styles, gender and race relations, linguistic and cultural traditions, and human behavior, a scenario just as complex as the ones increasingly common in future work environments.”

Dancing with Dragons

It isn’t a particularly bold supposition that dragons are a formidable weapon. Still, we wondered: exactly how much of an impact would a dragon have on a battlefield? Chandler Thornhill, a graduate student in economics, and Matthew Redington, a graduate student in computer science, offered to devise a few simulations.

Both are currently enrolled in the course Modeling, Simulation, and Military Gaming, an interdisciplinary, project-based class requiring collaboration across a range of backgrounds and skills. Groups of students spend a semester researching and dissecting historical battles, using this deep understanding to adjust variables and outcomes through computational modeling.

Introducing fantastical elements may seem an inconsequential exercise, but to one of its instructors, School of International Affairs Assistant Professor Mariel Borowtiz, introducing pop culture elements allows students to connect with modeling simulations in a different way.

“One of the things I like about bringing dragons into a simulation is that you really have to go through the same research process,” she said. “You have to be rigorous in how you find data and how you make assumptions. Obviously, there’s not a lot of data available on a dragon’s efficiency but you can look at the information sources available as a basis to formulate and justify assumptions. It shows the process can be applied in all sorts of areas.”

So how much of a difference did the dragon have? By their calculations, roughly 70 percent of opposing forces were turned to ash.

IAC Link

GT Link

#ivanallencollege #georgiatech #iac #gt #gameofthrones #hbo #faculty #professor #liberalarts #INTA #LMC #CM #DM

[hopefulfestivaltastemaker]

September 19, 2021

My roundup of things I am up to this week. Topics include peat in the Dutch Golden Age, research productivity, asteroid risk, and solar storms.

Peat and the Dutch Golden Age

That is the subject of this most fascinating article by Davis Kedrosky. The article outlines the role of peat in the prosperity of The Netherlands in the 17th century. We often split the long arc of history into the agrarian and industrial periods, with the Industrial Revolution as a transition, beginning in the 18th or 19th centuries in Britain. If so, then the Dutch Golden Age is a kind of intermediate period, with peat, the leading fuel, a transition between traditional biomass and fossil fuels.

One thing in particular jumps out at me.

Davis argues, fairly convincingly, that it was not energy limitations that brought the Dutch Golden Age to an end. During the decline, the Netherlands had as much access to coal at Britain, but they didn’t develop imports to a great degree. This is in contrast to the point of view generally associated with ecological economics, which gives energy availability and prices central importance in the evolution of an economy.

The whole substack is interesting and worth a browse. Davis focuses on economic history, particularly the history of the industrial revolution. The article about the timing is particularly interesting.

Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?

This is the title of a paper by Bloom et al., on which I have commented a few times. Since the first preprint appeared around 2017, I haven’t seen a good counterargument to the paper, making it seem fairly strong. This essay, which came out this week, is the strongest I have seen so far.

Bloom et al. argue that ideas really are getting harder to find, and their evidence rests on three case studies (semiconductors and Moore’s Law, life expectancy, and agricultural yields) and total factor productivity (TFP). In each of the four cases, they argue that research productivity has fallen by dramatic margins. Research productivity is defined as the amount of progress in the area divided by the number of researchers.

Alexey Guzey’s essay, in contrast, makes several criticisms of Bloom et al.’s methodology. The main one is that the measure of ideas, and of “progress” in each of the four fields, is rather ad hoc. For example, with semiconductors, if the baseline measure of progress is taken to be a linear or quadratic growth of transistor density, rather than exponential, then productivity has gone up dramatically rather than down. There are a number of other criticisms as well, which I won’t enumerate fully. The essay is worth a read.

Regarding TFP, it is pointed out that TFP is not a very well-understood metric. TFP is the residual of economic growth when growth in capital investment and the labor supply are accounted for. TFP is often taken as a proxy for technological development, but really it is a sort of dark matter in macroeconomics that is only weakly correlated with technology.

The weakest point of Guzey’s argument, in my opinion, is a heavy reliance on mismeasurement. It is asserted that actual TFP is higher than the measured value because large contributions are not adequately accounted for. Operations like Google and especially Wikipedia, for example, capture only a small portion of the consumer surplus they generate. I have two problems with this argument. First, it is not clear that this is true. While Wikipedia only formally contributes to GDP a small fraction of the value it creates, easy access to knowledge should allow workers and firms to be more productive, increasing GDP indirectly. Second, even if this argument does hold up, it is not clear that mismeasurement has gotten worse over time, which would be necessary if there is recent growth in TFP not being captured by formal statistics. For instance, there is a great deal of informal household labor not captured in the economy, and if anything this value has been going down (e.g. home cooked meals being replaced by restaurant meals).

The above criticism notwithstanding, this essay is a useful contribution to the productivity debates. I think the weak correlation between TFP and innovation is the most important point. It should be borne in mind in trying to explain the paradox of how a sluggish economy seems to coexist with astonishing advances in synthetic biology, artificial intelligence, space flight, and other areas.

Asteroid Risk

The last asteroid impact to do significant damage to humans was the 2013 Chelyabinsk impact. That asteroid was about 20 meters in diameter, and though it airburst rather than hit the ground, the explosion caused about 1600 injuries, mostly from broken glass. The 1908 Tunguska impact is believed to have been caused by an asteroid about 50 meters in diameter. That did minor damage to humans because it hit in a remote area in Siberia. If it had hit a major city, the damage would have been catastrophic. Despite the light damage that has occurred historically, there is a small risk of a much larger impactor, and thus asteroids feature prominently on almost any list of existential risks to humanity.

This report from NASA has a chart (see p. 25) on the risk of impacts by size. The report is from 2006, but more recent material seems to say similar things. The risk of an impact with global consequences seems to be on the order of 1 in tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands, per year, and 1 in millions before we get to extinction risk. I would be much more worried about other things.

Nevertheless, it is worth a modest investment of resources to identify and deflect asteroids. NASA’s budget to do so has grown considerably, though for a variety of reasons that are separate from planetary defense. As a result, the number of large asteroids found has also grown. As of 2018, about a third of 140+ meter asteroids are found; I think it’s about half now. Over 95% of 1+ km asteroids are found. We’ll probably never get to 100%, since there is the risk of an unexpected comet or something. Considering that the Tunguska impactor was estimated at around 50 meters, we are definitely far from finding everything that could do major damage.

It’s not clear to me what would happen if an asteroid with a high risk of impact was found. So far no deflections have been demonstrated, though there are plenty of ideas on the drawing board.

I don’t have too much to add that is novel. Having looked at this issue in more detail lately, I’m pleased to see that there has been a lot of progress, even if there is still a long ways to go. NASA now spends about $150 million/year on planetary defense, according to one of the articles above. That seems reasonable.

Solar Storms

One of the best known solar storms in recording history was the 1859 Carrington event. This storm disrupted telegraph lines and cause the Aurora Borealis to be visible as far south as Cuba. It is estimated that if a similar event happened today, the damage could be in the trillions of dollars.

This report has some figures on strengths of storms and their likelihood of happening (see Table 2 on p. 19), though they seem to misreport the strength of the Carrington Event.

Evidently there was a near-miss in 2012 of a major coronal mass ejection. It had a peak intensity is -1200 nanoteslas, while the Carrington event had a peak intensity of -850 nT. A direct hit would have been catastrophic.

Thanks to SOHO and other solar monitoring, we would have advance warning of up to a couple days in the event of a solar storm. The main thing to do would be to harden transformers and disconnect vulnerable equipment from the power grid. I would guess that some sort of Kuznets curve applies here. Since 1859, we’ve gotten much more vulnerable to solar storms because of the proliferation of power grids and electronics. But in more recent years we have gotten more resilient due to better forecasting, better design of equipment, and more knowledge of what to do. But unlike other areas where Kuznets curves apply, major solar storms are too rare to test this hypothesis rigorously.

Evidently it was proposed that the United States build a strategic reserve of transformers to prepare against solar storms or EMP attacks, but this was not deemed to be cost-effective.

[fumpkins]

Screening for ovarian cancer did not reduce early deaths -- LiveScience.Tech

A large-scale randomised trial of annual screening for ovarian cancer, led by UCL researchers, did not succeed in reducing deaths from the disease, despite one of the screening methods tested detecting cancers earlier.

Results from the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) have been published in a report in the medical journal The Lancet.

In the UK, 4,000 women die from ovarian cancer each year. It is not usually diagnosed until it is at a late stage and hard to treat. UKCTOCS was designed to test the hypothesis that a reliable screening method that picks up ovarian cancer earlier, when treatments are more likely to be effective, could save lives.

The latest analysis looked at data from more than 200,000 women aged 50-74 at recruitment who were followed up for an average of 16 years. The women were randomly allocated to one of three groups: no screening, annual screening using an ultrasound scan, and annual multimodal screening involving a blood test followed by an ultrasound scan as a second line test.

The researchers found that, while the approach using multimodal testing succeeded in picking up cancers at an early stage, neither screening method led to a reduction in deaths.

Earlier detection in UKCTOCS did not translate into saving lives. Researchers said this highlighted the importance of requiring evidence that any potential screening test for ovarian cancer actually reduced deaths, as well as detecting cancers earlier.

Professor Usha Menon (MRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL), lead investigator of UKTOCS, said: “UKCTOCS is the first trial to show that screening can definitely detect ovarian cancer earlier. However, this very large, rigorous trial shows clearly that screening using either of the approaches we tested did not save lives. We therefore cannot recommend ovarian cancer screening for the general population using these methods.

“We are disappointed as this is not the outcome we and everyone involved in the trial had hoped and worked for over so many years. To save lives, we will require a better screening test that detects ovarian cancer earlier and in more women than the multimodal screening strategy we used.”

Women aged between 50 and 74 were enrolled in the trial between 2001 and 2005. Screening lasted until 2011 and was either an annual blood test, monitoring changes in the level of the protein CA125, or a yearly vaginal ultrasound scan. About 100,000 women were assigned to the no screening group, and more than 50,000 women to each of the screening groups.

Blood test screening picked up 39% more cancers at an early stage (Stage I/II), while detecting 10% fewer late-stage cancers (Stage III/IV) compared to the no screening group. There was no difference in the stage of cancers detected in the ultrasound group compared to the no screening group.

The initial analysis of deaths in the trial occurred in 2015, but there was not enough data at that time to conclude whether or not screening reduced deaths. By looking at five more years of follow up data from the women involved, researchers are now able to conclude that the screening did not save lives.

Professor Mahesh Parmar, Director of the MRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL and a senior author on the paper, said: “There have been significant improvements in the treatment of advanced disease in the last 10 years, since screening in our trial ended. Our trial showed that screening was not effective in women who do not have any symptoms of ovarian cancer; in women who do have symptoms early diagnosis, combined with this better treatment, can still make a difference to quality of life and, potentially, improve outcomes. On top of this, getting a diagnosis quickly, whatever the stage of the cancer, is profoundly important to women and their families.”

Professor Ian Jacobs, from the University of New South Wales (UNSW Sydney), a co-investigator who has led the ovarian cancer screening research programme since 1985 and who was lead investigator of UKCTOCS from 2001-2014, said: “My thanks to the thousands of women, healthcare professionals and researchers who made this trial possible. The multimodal screening strategy did succeed in detection of ovarian cancer at an earlier stage, but sadly that did not save lives. This is deeply disappointing and frustrating given the hope of all involved that we would save the lives of thousands of women who are affected by ovarian cancer each year.”

Professor Jacobs noted: “Population screening for ovarian cancer can only be supported if a test is shown to reduce deaths in a future randomised controlled trial. I remain hopeful that a new effective screening test will be found eventually, but it will take many years to conduct a large trial of the test. Realistically, this means we have to reluctantly accept that population screening for ovarian cancer is more than a decade away.”

A huge wealth of samples and data from the trial has been donated by the participants for future research. This resource, referred to as the UKCTOCS Longitudinal Women’s Cohort (UKLWC), is now being used by researchers worldwide, helping to improve understanding of ovarian cancer as well as other cancers and other diseases such as cardiovascular disease.

Researchers say that the study has also generated insights into how best to design, conduct and analyse a large-scale randomised clinical trial particularly in individuals who have no signs of disease. These insights will be helpful to future trials in all areas of health. It has also contributed to advances in risk assessment, prevention and diagnosis of ovarian cancer.

The UKCTOCS trial was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Programme and the charities Cancer Research UK and The Eve Appeal.

Michelle Mitchell, Cancer Research UK’s Chief Executive, said: “Trials don’t always find the result we had hoped for, but we need long-term studies like this to know whether new tests save lives. Cancer Research UK will continue to fund vital research into aggressive forms of ovarian cancer so we can reduce the impact of this disease.

“Screening is for people without symptoms, so it’s still important that if you notice unusual or persistent changes to talk to your doctor. Symptoms of ovarian cancer can be quite vague and similar to symptoms caused by less serious conditions, which can make spotting the disease tricky. Whether it’s needing to go to the toilet more often, pain, bloating, or something else, raise it with your GP — in most cases it won’t be cancer but it’s best to get it checked out.”

Professor Nick Lemoine, Medical Director, NIHR Clinical Research Network, said: “These important findings from a large-scale trial, involving 200,000 participants, show that annual screening did not succeed in reducing deaths from ovarian cancer.

“However, it’s important to note that negative results can be as important as positive. The study has provided important new evidence and insights into how to conduct and analyse future large-scale randomised clinical trials into ovarian cancer, in the hope that this will prevent and diagnose this disease more effectively in the future.

“We thank every single person who took part.”

Athena Lamnisos, CEO, The Eve Appeal, said: “The threshold for introducing a national cancer screening programme is a mortality benefit. Of course this is key — saving lives. It’s disappointing that this research programme did not show a reduction in mortality from ovarian cancer and so can’t be recommended as a national screening programme. However, the impact it had on earlier diagnosis is impressive and important.

“Ovarian cancer is so often diagnosed at stage 3 or 4 and shifting diagnosis one stage earlier makes a huge difference to both treatment options and quality of life. Earlier diagnosis will often reduce the amount and intensity of treatment, and this makes all the difference to women and their families who are living with cancer. It may have also given them more precious time with their loved ones.”

New post published on: https://livescience.tech/2021/05/14/screening-for-ovarian-cancer-did-not-reduce-early-deaths-livescience-tech/

[orbemnews]

Childhood Colds Do Not Prevent Coronavirus Infection, Study Finds The theory was simple and compelling: Children are less vulnerable to the new coronavirus because they carry antibodies to other common coronaviruses that cause the common cold. The idea might also explain why some people infected with the new virus have mild symptoms while others — presumably without antibodies to common cold coronaviruses — are much more severely affected. The notion gained traction particularly among people who claimed that this existing protection would swiftly bring human populations to herd immunity, the point at which a pathogen’s spread slows to a halt as it runs out of hosts to infect. A study in the journal Science, published in December, gave the hypothesis a strong boost. But for all its appeal, the theory does not hold up, according to a new study published on Tuesday in the journal Cell. Based on carefully conducted experiments with live virus and with hundreds of blood samples drawn before and after the pandemic, the new research refutes the idea that antibodies to seasonal coronaviruses have any impact on the new coronavirus, called SARS-CoV-2. “Going into this study, we thought we would learn that individuals that had pre-existing, pre-pandemic antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 would be less susceptible to infection and have less severe Covid-19 disease,” said Scott Hensley, an immunologist at the University of Pennsylvania. “That’s not what we found.” He and his colleagues concluded that most people are exposed to seasonal coronaviruses by age 5. As a result, about one in five people carries antibodies that recognize the new coronavirus. But these antibodies are not neutralizing — they cannot disarm the virus, nor do they mitigate the severity of symptoms following infection, the team found. The researchers also compared antibodies to common cold coronaviruses in children and adults and found no difference in the amounts. By contrast, the study in Science had reported that about 5 percent of adults carried those antibodies, compared with 43 percent of children. That study “reported very high levels of pre-pandemic cross-reactive neutralizing antibodies in kids, something that we did not find,” Dr. Hensley said. (“Cross-reactive” refers to antibodies able to attack similar sites on more than one type of virus.) “I don’t have an explanation for the difference from the Science study, honestly,” he added. Perhaps the difference in locations — Pennsylvania, in his study, versus Britain in the previous research — may explain some of the discrepancy, he said. Other experts said they found Dr. Hensley’s study to be more convincing of the two and more consistent with circumstances in which large groups of people become infected with the new coronavirus. For example, a single person infected with the new coronavirus at a Wisconsin summer camp set off an outbreak that affected 76 percent of the other attendees, noted John Moore, a virologist at Weill Cornell Medicine in New York. Similarly, on a fishing trawler that left for sea from Seattle, only three sailors who had antibodies to the new coronavirus before the trip stayed virus-free. Those are not the infection rates you would see if protective antibodies were widely distributed in the population, Dr. Moore said. Updated  Feb. 9, 2021, 10:21 p.m. ET “The idea that having the snuffles a while back somehow protects you from SARS-CoV-2 infection has always left me cold, but it’s been a persistent urban legend throughout the pandemic,” he said. “Hopefully, this new paper will finally cool everyone down and put such thoughts into the freezer.” Experts also praised the new study’s careful and rigorous approach. “It’s really nice to have a study that’s this well done,” said Shane Crotty, a virologist at the La Jolla Institute of Immunology in San Diego. The theory that existing antibodies can protect people from the new virus “has definitely got a strong appeal because at first blush, it can explain a lot of the pandemic,” Dr. Crotty said. “But a beautiful idea doesn’t make it true.” Dr. Hensley and his colleagues examined samples from 251 people who had donated blood to the University of Pennsylvania before the pandemic and then went on to develop Covid-19. Those people carried levels of antibodies able to recognize the new coronavirus that were no different from those seen in blood samples drawn from 251 people who remained uninfected. And the levels showed no relationship to the clinical outcome in any of the patients. “It’s hard to come by those kinds of samples — I was just impressed,” said Marion Pepper, an immunologist at the University of Washington in Seattle. “It’s like three different studies wrapped into one.” The most important part of the coronavirus is the spike protein on its surface, which docks onto human cells. The spike is also the most distinctive part of the virus, so it makes sense that antibodies to seasonal viruses would be unlikely to recognize and disarm it, Dr. Pepper said. “There are very specific parts of these viruses that are critical for infection, and most of this cross-reactivity isn’t directed to those parts,” she said. But George Kassiotis, an immunologist at the Francis Crick Institute in London who led the study published in Science, disagreed with the conclusions of the new research. It “largely confirms rather than contradicts our main findings,” he said, adding that the new study was too small to rule out any role for existing antibodies. But even if people really were carrying coronavirus antibodies from childhood infections, the protection they confer is not powerful enough to matter, said Jesse Bloom, an evolutionary biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle. “If there is no effect that is measurable in a study with hundreds of people in both the infected and uninfected groups, then the effect is certainly tiny,” Dr. Bloom said. Most of the vaccines developed for the new coronavirus are focused on the spike protein. Some scientists have argued that antibodies to other parts of the virus may also be critical to protection. But the new study suggests that the other antibodies are of minimal importance in protecting people from SARS-CoV-2. The experts all said the new study did not rule out a role for immune cells, called memory B cells and T cells, produced in response to seasonal coronaviruses. Those cells might recognize some parts of the new virus and attack it, easing the severity of symptoms. Still, the cells would not prevent infection, Dr. Crotty said. When exposed to the new virus, the immune cells might be roused “fast enough that you would have an asymptomatic infection that you never noticed,” he said. “But no, they wouldn’t stop infection.” Tests of T cells are laborious and expensive, so analyses of their contribution to immunity are not yet complete. In the meantime, the new study at least rules out a significant role for existing antibodies, Dr. Hensley said: “We’ve sort of written one chapter here, but there’s still so much to be learned.” Source link Orbem News #Childhood #colds #coronavirus #finds #infection #prevent #Study

[tefltraininginstitute]

Going From Teacher To Buisness Owner (with Ed Dudley, Jake Whiddon & Peter Liu)

Have you ever thought about starting your own school, start-up or just going freelance? As the educational landscape changes due to Covid, branching out on your own is becoming a necessity for many teachers. This week I speak with three people who have gone from being teachers to becoming their own bosses. Peter Liu tells us how he got the inspiration for his online education company, Jake Whiddon tells us why he founded his own school after fifteen years of working for other people and Ed Dudley tells us what kind of people should avoid going freelance.

Links

Ed in the Crowd -  Ed Dudley's blog

ETpedia Teenagers - Ed's book on teaching teens

Owl ABC - Peter Liu's Ed-tech company

Going From Teacher To Buisness Owner (with Ed Dudley, Jake Whiddon & Peter Liu)

 Peter Liu from Owl ABC on starting a start-up

Ross:  Peter, you started your own business a year and a half ago. Before you tell us about what it is, what made you want to start your own company?

Peter Liu:  My current co‑founder and I, we've been good friends for several years. He's also in education. He's got 15 some odd years of experience. We saw this trend of thousands of Chinese kids going abroad to study.

There was a study done several years back that showed 25 percent of Chinese students going to an Ivy League school fail, 25 percent. When I read that statistic, that blew my mind.

There's a gap in skills that Chinese students have, who are attending school abroad. There are tons and tons of services that help kids in China improve their English. They can help with their test‑taking of the IELs and the TOEFL. It only ever seems to go as far as your first day of university so you can get into school.

How do you actually stay in and succeed? I've been working at this education technology startup. We built a whole bunch of fancy tech. I worked very closely with the product and the engineering teams. I had a little bit of experience building an online product.

Ross:  This is almost like working in a startup prepared you to start your own startup?

Peter:  Yeah, you could say that.

Ross:  Did that take some of the fear out of it, as well?

Peter:  It's that and also our product is not technically that challenging. We're not building a technology company. We're building a services company.

Ross:  How has what your company does changed from what you originally visioned, compared with now?

Peter:  The biggest change was our business model. Originally, we were focused on a B2C model, basically, selling our services and our content directly to consumers. We quickly found that we don't have the local knowledge of how to message, how to create marketing channels to reach these consumers.

We made the decision to shift our focus to B2B, licensing our content and our teaching to other education companies so that they could do the heavy lifting of marketing directly to their students. They already have students who are, perhaps, learning English from them, but who need to build their critical thinking skills. That's where we come in.

Ross:  Can I ask you a question about money and stuff? Let me give you an analogy here. I remember once climbing a mountain. When you're climbing a high mountain, it's a little bit dangerous. You have a turnaround time. If we don't get to the top by four o'clock, we're going to turn around. Because if we're walking down in the dark, it's really, really dangerous.

Do you have that with the business where you're like, "If we're not starting to make money, or if we're not able to break even within 12 months or two years, then I'm going to quit this and go back to teaching English." How does that work?

Peter:  It depends what scale company you're doing, and also how disciplined you are with finances.

[laughter]

Peter:  Basically, how much money do you have in the bank, and how long can that sustain you? What is your burn rate? How much money are you spending?

Ross:  Cool. Can I ask you then what would you say if there's one thing I really wish I knew or I paid more attention to when I first started this, I should have done this. What do you think that would be?

Peter:  I'm a big proponent of the lean startup methodology which is, basically, applying the scientific method to operating a business. You form a hypothesis. You run tests to either validate or invalidate that hypothesis. Then you either proceed if you validate your hypothesis or you change course.

I wish we'd applied that methodology a little bit more rigorously to the early stages of our product development, because of the business environment that we're operating in. We were very cautious in marketing, and putting ourselves out there, and putting our product out there.

Ross:  In case someone stole the idea.

Peter:  Precisely.

 Jake Whiddon on starting your own school

Ross:  Hi, Jake.

Jake Whiddon:  Hi, Ross.

Ross:  You started your own kids' school recently. You've been involved in TOEFL for about 15 years. What made you want to open your own school now at this point in your career?

Jake:  Honestly, I felt that I had worked for long enough for big companies. I wanted to have some control over the output of what I was doing. I felt I reached, not a ceiling, but a point where there was nowhere else I could go with what I personally wanted to do with education. That's the reason.

Ross:  Jake, how did you choose the people to go into business with? There's so many people you know, but why did you choose the people who work with you now?

Jake:  It's really interesting. For a long time, I'd always wanted to start a business with another one of your ex‑guests called Dave Welleble. I realized that we were too similar. We were very similar. What I had to do was find someone who could complement my skills. I've got some skills that come up with creative ideas in trying to have operations experience.

I needed someone who knew how to network, do finances, work with people, and communicate better, and then that person came along. It's someone I'd worked with 10 years ago, and they just came out of the blue and said, "Hey, by the way, I'm actually looking for someone who can work together."

I think the best decision was finding someone who I knew well but can complement the way they work. That old adage of never work with your friends, I don't think that that's true. I think that you should work with your friends.

A point a friend was making to me the other day was, I met this person through working with him, not through being a friend. I knew I could work with him. I think that's worked really, really well.

Ross:  How did you go about getting an investor then, because, obviously, opening a school requires a lot of funds?

Jake:  You don't find people to invest in your school, they find you. There's a lot of people in China with a lot of money that they don't know how to spend. They need to spend it on something, whether it's a gym or a hairdresser, or something they want to do. For us, it was someone who knew they wanted to do something in education, but they didn't know how to.

They came to us and said, "Can you guys do something with education for us?" Which is what I find most people say. On saying that, though, people are still looking for investors.

The way it happens in China is you're just constantly networking. You never know why the person that you're talking to might be the person who can invest money in you one day. That's something to remember.

Ross:  What skills do you think you've learned in other parts of your career that helped you the most in running your own school?

Jake:  Well, none. No, I want to say none. No, I say that as a joke. It's amazing how little I knew. I mean, I ran five, four different schools as a [inaudible 08:20. I ran 12 schools as a regional manager. I ran 40 schools as a national manager. I controlled budgets of two million dollars. You know what? A lot of those skills didn't help me at all.

What they helped me with was operations. They helped me with efficiency. They helped me with things, like knowing that you're using classrooms at the right efficiency. You're using teachers at the right amount. You're utilizing people in the right way.

It didn't teach me how to run a business. With all the experience in the world, I have learned more in the last eight months of how much I didn't know.

Ross:  What have you had to learn when your started your business? Is there anything that you've never experienced before, or something that you felt, "Oh, this is something brand new to me, and I have to start learning"?

Jake:  I'm learning that without a big budget for marketing, for example, we can't go and afford a math/science and blanket. You have to think everything we're thinking. We have to flip it over and think about it from the bottom up. That's probably the first one. The other one is people don't want to work for a company that no one's heard of.

People want to work for big name companies. Who wants to work for a place that has only one school? Lastly is how much relationships matter. The relationship you have obviously with the customer but also mainly with everyone around you, everyone. The Fire Department, the Visa Office, everyone you have to have a relationship with.

You're constantly having to deal with each of these people. We talk about bureaucracy, but bureaucracy might be a good thing because, at least, it means there's some bureaucratic process. Here, it all comes back to relationships.

Ross:  Finally, Jake. What advice do you have for teachers thinking about starting their own school?

Jake:  Remember, that's my last advice. The industry is never as caught up as you are. Whatever you're thinking, the market is probably two steps behind you. The market needs to be educated to get to where you are first.

Ross:  Thanks, Jake. Bye‑bye.

Jake:  Bye, Ross.

 Ed Dudley on going freelance

Ross:  Ed, you obviously started off as a teacher teaching full‑time. Do you want to tell us about how did you go from teaching full‑time to becoming now a freelance teacher trainer and author?

Ed Dudley:  You're right. I began teaching full‑time. Then very gradually, I began to be invited to speak at local conferences and to do, perhaps, weekend events for teachers in the local area. Then gradually I was invited to do more work, which involved going to another country for a few days to do some teacher training. I would balance that with my school work.

I would rearrange my classes, or I would get colleagues to cover my classes in my absence, which was, again, a difficult balancing act. There was no masterplan there for me. I simply did it slowly and incrementally over time. The amount of teaching that I was doing gradually reduced. The amount of training and materials writing that I was doing gradually increased.

Ross:  There are a lot of teachers considering becoming a freelancer. Are there any tips or recommendation for this group of people?

Ed:  It has the potential to cause sleepless nights if you're going to suddenly do it cold turkey. I was in a position where I could try out freelance work, freelance life with a safety net. I tend to have the philosophy that if you focus on doing a good job on what's in front of you, then that will lead to good things in the future.

I've always remembered that it's important to be aware of what your strengths are. If I'm asked or invited to do something that I don't think is aligned with my strengths, then I say "no" to that. It can be tough when you're a freelancer to say "no" to something.

There's a lot of pressure on us to take every opportunity that comes our way. It is important not to bite off more than we can chew as well, and to make sure we do a good job by saying "yes" to the things that we're confident we can do well, and "no" to the things that we don't think we can do well.

Ross:  What do you think are the advantages of the freelance life?

Ed:  The key advantages, that if you have the mentality or you have the personality that can deal with the uncertainties of the freelance life.

In other words, if you're not too freaked out by the fact that you're not quite sure what's going to be happening 12 months from now, then that gives you an awful amount of freedom. It gives you a chance to focus on your own professional development.

I find that I'm able to do a lot more reading. I'm able to find time to plan my work with much more freedom and less frazzledness than when I was balancing my training work with my full‑time job. It gives you a chance also to make last minute decisions as well.

Very often, you'll find that an opportunity comes up at very short notice to travel somewhere and do some work. You have this really exciting opportunity to go somewhere you've never been before, to work with people you've never met before. That's an incredibly stimulating and enjoyable way to work.

#career #career advancement #teacher management #start ups #freelance #ed-tech #Jake Whiddon #Peter Liu #Publishing #Edmund Dudley #ETpedia #management

[cancerbiophd]

Hi! I saw you wrote that there's a research happening in your lab involving the use of curcumin to block breast cancer bone metastases in cells and mice. Could you tell more about it? And is there any benefit of consuming curcumin (from turmeric) in terms of prevention against cancer? Thanks! :)

hi!! yeah i would love to! :D 

first i’ll address the second question regarding curc in diet and cancer prevention. basically the therapeutic dose of curcumin (the main component in turmeric) that needs to be achieved to have any effect (good or bad) is just impossible to achieve through eating turmeric alone. furthermore, curcumin is poorly absorbed by cells. however, there are OTC supplements that are more potent and are made in such a way to enhance absorption. but, none of these have gone through any rigorous clinical trials to show their efficacy in preventing or treating any type of disease, cancers included. in fact, there are more reported cases of toxicity associated with curcumin than any actual benefit.. but that’s not because of curcumin not having an effect on patients and specific diseases; there’s just very little (good) research on it. 

however, one professor made a pretty thought-provoking question one time after my lab mate gave a presentation on our curcumin research: there has to be SOME observable benefit to curcumin supplements that outweigh the negatives, otherwise its popularity over thousands of years would not have been sustained. and like... hmm, yeah, that’s a pretty good point. i think most scientists will agree that there is some benefit to curcumin supplements; exactly what it is and what the mechanism may be is still under research. and until that data is known, we can not make any recommendations to take or not take curcumin. 

i don’t think anyone in my lab takes curcumin supplements (or adds extra turmeric to their food) if that means anything.. 

now onto our lab’s research:

so basically we’ve found that intraperitoneal injections of pure curcumin into mice with estrogen receptor-negative (ER-) breast cancer bone metastasis significantly reduced the size of the osteolytic lesions caused by the bone mets. and when we further looked at what was happening inside the cell, curcumin was blocking the TGFbeta pathway, which is a signaling pathway the tumor cells uses in the bone to promote osteolysis. so curc was able to put the brakes on the TGFbeta pathway, and thus the cells were less able to form large osteolytic lesions (though some lesions still formed, as there are always multiple pathways to an endpoint). (to note though, we did not test if curcumin treatment before tumor inoculation had any effect; we only treated the mice with curc after they had tumors circulating in their bloodstream.)

so we were like, aah that’s great! but then biology was like lol here’s a wrench! turns out when curcumin is ingested (like from an otc supplement), it’s quickly metabolized by the liver into glucuronidated-curcumin, and this G-curc is completely inactive in terms of doing anything to the cancer cells and bone mets. but! there’s an enzyme called glucuronidase that can cleave off that glucuronide and then re-activate curc again, and we’ve shown that bone marrow has high levels of glucuronidase (at least in mice). so our hypothesis is G-curc can be re-activated in the bone marrow, and thus orally ingested curcumin can still have a biological effect on ER- breast cancer bone mets. that’s basically my lab mate’s dissertation project.

we also had a clinical trial (that closed bc we couldn’t recruit enough people) to study the benefits of curcumin supplementation in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. the disease also has osteolytic bone lesions, and our lab showed in animal studies that curcumin could alleviate that bone destruction as well (via a slightly different pathway than in tumor cells). it was kind of a bummer the trial ended early tho, bc there’s no treatment for RA and patients suffer a lot of chronic pain :(

hope that clarifies things a bit! if you have any follow up questions, let me know! as evident by how ridiculously long this answer is, i really like talking about this haha. 

#exceli