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theliberaltony · 3 years

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via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

On Monday, Texas lawmakers gave a first glimpse at what the state’s new congressional districts may look like. The redrawn map was highly anticipated given that Texas gained two additional congressional seats — the most of any state — during the reapportionment process and because Republicans are fully in control of the state’s redistricting process. Yet the new map, if passed, would not substantially alter the topline partisan breakdown of Texas’s seats. It appears that Republican mapmakers prioritized defending the GOP’s current seat advantage over trying to significantly expand it.

Overall, this map creates 24 solid or likely Republican seats, 13 solid or likely Democratic seats and one swing seat in the Rio Grande Valley. (The state’s two new districts will be placed in the Austin and Houston metropolitan areas, as those two areas fueled much of the state’s population growth since 2010.) But this isn’t that much different than what Texas’s map currently looks like: At present, the delegation is made up of 23 Republicans and 13 Democrats.

This is still a very good map for Republicans, though, because mapmakers strengthened the GOP’s advantage in the state by making a number of potentially vulnerable seats held by Republicans much redder, with the newest Houston-area seat also drawn so that it’s favorable to Republican candidates. As the table below shows, the current map has 11 Republican incumbents in seats that were less than 20 points more Republican than the country as a whole, according to FiveThirtyEight’s partisan lean metric.1 But on the new map, all but one Republican-held seat would be R+20 or stronger for the GOP.

GOP incumbents are protected in Texas’s new proposed map

Change in partisan lean in Texas congressional districts held by Republicans, from the current map to the first draft plan proposed by the Texas Legislature

District Partisan lean GOP Incumbent Old New Old New Change Beth Van Duyne TX-24 TX-24 R+3.5 R+22.3 R+18.8 Dan Crenshaw TX-02 TX-38 R+9.1 R+26.6 R+17.6 John Carter TX-31 TX-31 R+11.2 R+27.3 R+16.1 Roger Williams TX-25 TX-25 R+16.4 R+31.8 R+15.4 Troy Nehls TX-22 TX-22 R+8.3 R+23.7 R+15.3 Michael McCaul TX-10 TX-10 R+9.2 R+24.5 R+15.2 Chip Roy TX-21 TX-21 R+10.2 R+24.5 R+14.2 Van Taylor TX-03 TX-03 R+10.5 R+23.6 R+13.0 Randy Weber TX-14 TX-14 R+24.6 R+35.3 R+10.6 Jake Ellzey TX-06 TX-06 R+11.2 R+21.0 R+9.8 Pete Sessions TX-17 TX-17 R+18.2 R+26.2 R+7.9 Tony Gonzales TX-23 TX-23 R+5.1 R+12.8 R+7.7 Michael Burgess TX-26 TX-26 R+23.3 R+26.4 R+3.0 Jodey Arrington TX-19 TX-19 R+52.1 R+53.3 R+1.3 Louie Gohmert TX-01 TX-01 R+50.3 R+49.9 D+0.4 Michael Cloud TX-27 TX-27 R+28.8 R+27.8 D+1 Lance Gooden TX-05 TX-05 R+29.8 R+27.0 D+2.8 Kay Granger TX-12 TX-12 R+30.2 R+24.3 D+5.9 Brian Babin TX-36 TX-36 R+50.7 R+34.9 D+15.8 Kevin Brady* TX-08 TX-02 R+49.7 R+29.9 D+19.8 Ronny Jackson TX-13 TX-13 R+65.9 R+45.1 D+20.8 August Pfluger TX-11 TX-11 R+64.3 R+41.0 D+23.3 Pat Fallon TX-04 TX-04 R+56.3 R+29.7 D+26.7

*Incumbent is retiring.

Incumbents were placed in the district that contains the largest population share of their old district. They may not necessarily seek reelection in that district.

Partisan lean is the average margin difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall. This version of partisan lean, meant to be used for congressional and gubernatorial elections, is calculated as 50 percent the state or district’s lean relative to the nation in the most recent presidential election, 25 percent its relative lean in the second-most-recent presidential election and 25 percent a custom state-legislative lean.

Given that the GOP controls the redistricting process in Texas, it might seem strange that it wasn’t more aggressive in trying to flip a seat or two held by Democrats. But population growth and demographic shifts in Texas have arguably benefited Democrats so significantly that Republican mapmakers were mostly left playing defense — concerned that some GOP incumbents might soon become vulnerable.

At the top of that list is Rep. Beth Van Duyne, the only Texas Republican defending a seat that President Biden carried in 2020. The new map lines, however, would shift Van Duyne’s district between Dallas and Fort Worth nearly 20 points to the right, meaning that she likely has far more to worry about in a primary than in a general election now after winning by only 1.3 points last November.

Three other Republican incumbents in seats that were less than R+10 also saw their districts move at least 15 points to the right. Rep. Dan Crenshaw ranks among these members, although it’s not clear which seat he may run in: About one-third of his current district is in the new 38th District, but the same is true of the new 2nd District, too, which may also be open, considering Rep. Kevin Brady of the current 8th District is retiring. Either way, Crenshaw — a rising star in the GOP — would be far safer than he is now.

Rep. Tony Gonzales of the 23rd District is the only Republican incumbent who wouldn’t end up in a seat that’s at least R+20, but his perennial battleground district would be reforged into a relative GOP stronghold: His district would be R+13 under the new lines. Like Van Duyne, Gonzalez would breathe far easier under this new map, after he only won by 4 points in 2020.

In order to make many of these seats safer for Republicans, GOP lawmakers moved more Democratic voters into seats that the GOP had previously targeted but now seem to have abandoned. For example, the seat held by Democrat Lizzie Fletcher, who unseated a Republican incumbent in 2018, would go from D+1 to D+25. Meanwhile, the Dallas-area seat represented by Democrat Colin Allred, who similarly ousted a Republican incumbent in 2018, would go from D+2 to D+25. It’s a similar story for almost every other Texas Democrat under this plan. (In some instances, Republican mapmakers also made some super-red seats a slightly paler shade, “unpacking” some GOP voters to boost Republican-held seats. For instance, Rep. Van Taylor’s 3rd District outside of Dallas shifted east to take some red turf from Rep. Pat Fallon’s 4th District.)

One of the biggest takeaways from this map is that almost every seat — Democratic or Republican — would be uncompetitive at its baseline. All but two seats would lean at least 10 points more Democratic or Republican than the country as a whole.

And it’s heavily Hispanic South Texas that holds both of those exceptions. This is a potentially important development as that region might hold opportunities for the GOP since Biden performed worse there than past Democratic presidential candidates. Most notably, the 15th District, represented by Democrat Vicente Gonzalez, would become more Republican-leaning on the new map. He was already facing a difficult reelection bid, as he narrowly won his 2020 race by 3 percentage points after winning reelection by 21 points in 2018. But now under the new map, his district would go from D+2 to evenly split. Meanwhile, Rep. Henry Cuellar’s 28th District would actually become slightly bluer — it only moved from D+4 to D+7 — and could be in play in 2022. (Rep. Filemon Vela’s 34th District doesn’t fall neatly into this category because it went from D+5 to D+17, but it is the other border seat in Texas, and it seems to have gotten a little friendlier toward Democrats, although Vela won’t seek reelection.)

Another notable change under the new map is that it would result in a smaller share of districts with Hispanic majorities despite the addition of two new congressional districts. This could make the map vulnerable to a racial gerrymandering lawsuit considering Texas’s Hispanic population has driven the bulk of Texas’s population growth since 2010. According to census data, the current congressional map included 18 districts with white majorities and nine with Hispanic majorities. But the newly proposed map doesn’t give Hispanic voters any more clout: There are now 19 districts that have white majorities and still nine districts with Hispanic majorities, based on the voting age population.

This is only the first draft of Texas’s new congressional map, so it could still change before it’s passed by the GOP-controlled legislature. The Senate Redistricting Committee is expected to take up the congressional map on Thursday. But remember the GOP ultimately controls the redistricting process in Texas. That said, past congressional maps proposed by Texas lawmakers have been endlessly litigated — and it’s possible that could happen again this time around.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #Alex Samuels and Geoffrey Skelley

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ghhfhhgfhhhhhh · 3 years

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jessilyria · 5 years

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The Umbrella Academy Timeline

This is a chronological timeline for the events of TUA (the TV show).

Because theres lots of time travel, I’ve included colour coding, character ages, and tried to make it as comprehensible as possible ^‿^

The events of season 1 are in black, the events of season 2 are in purple. Events that end up as an alternative timeline to the main story are in red.

***********************************************************************

Long Ago Reginald leaves behind a sick woman whom he calls “my love”, but he takes her violin at her request. He releases a glass of glowing lights into the air as shuttles take off into the sky.

1928 Reginald goes through customs and immigration and begins a new life in America. He buys a company named D.S. Umbrella Manufacturing Co.

1938 While working for the Commission, Five (aged 53-58) leaves fingerprints behind at a scene. This is later picked up by Detective Patch in 2019.

1955 - TEMPS COMMISSION HEADQUARTERS - To hide her true intentions of raising a loyal soldier, the Handler fakes a kill order for Five (53-58) to assassinate Lila Spitts' parents. - After agreeing to work a new job, Five (58/13) travels with the Handler from March 28th 2019. He discovers info to help stop the '19 apocalypse and travels to March 29th 2019. - With the Board of Directors murdered, the Handler takes control of the Commission. - Lila brings Diego (30) from Nov 21st 1963. - Diego discovers that Vanya causes the '63 apocalypse. With the help of Herb and a coup, he travels to Nov 22nd 1963. - The Handler tells Lila that Five killed her parents. - The Handler recalls all personnel from the field and declares the Commission is going to war. They travel to Nov 22nd 1963.

Feb 11th 1960 Klaus (30) and Ben appear in Dallas after attempting to escape the '19 apocalypse. He is taken in by a wealthy woman and starts the cult known as Destiny’s Children.

1961 - Allison (29) appears in Dallas after attempting to escape the '19 apocalypse and is attacked for being black. She takes refuge in a beauty salon and gets a job there. - Klaus (31) travels with his cult in Baja, Mexico.

Dec 1961 Allison (30) starts dating Raymond Chestnut.

April 10th 1962 Luther (29) appears in Dallas after attempting to escape the '19 apocalypse. Shortly after, he travels to The Umbrella Academy in an attempt to talk to Reginald. Having no idea who he is, Reginald spurns him, so he returns to Dallas and works for Jack Ruby. His fighting alias is "King Kong".

1962 - A young Pogo (3-8?) is transported from the Congo to a science lab in Cape Canaveral, Florida. A woman named Grace begins training him. - Klaus (32) travels with his cult in Varanasi, India. At some unknown point he also lives in a yurt just outside of Reykjavik, Iceland.

Nov/Dec 1962 With her voice fully healed, Allison (31) gets married to Ray.

1962/63 As part of Project Mercury, Pogo (3-8?) is sent into orbit. However, the shuttle malfunctions and crashes. In order to save Pogo's life, Reginald injects him with some unknown serum, altering his DNA.

Sep 1st 1963 Diego (29) appears in Dallas after attempting to escape the '19 apocalypse.

Sep 2nd 1963 Diego is locked in Holbrook Sanatarium for stalking Lee Harvey Oswald and claiming JFK will be assassinated. He's there for 75 days.

Oct 12th 1963 Vanya (29) appears in Dallas with amnesia after attempting to escape the '19 apocalypse. She gets hit by a car and taken in by the family; working as a live-in-nanny for Harlen, and developing a romatic relationship with Sissy.

Nov 13/14th 1963 Klaus (33) flees from his cult in San Francisco, stealing a car and heading to Dallas.

Nov 15th 1963 - Five (58/13) appears in Dallas having just witnesed the '63 apocalypse that will happen in 10 days. - The Commission sends three Swedish assassins to kill the siblings. They shoot at Five and kill Hazel. - Klaus (33) is arrested for stealing a car. - The Swedes attack Diego (30) at the asylum but he escapes with Lila.

Nov 16th 1963 - Klaus (33) is released from jail. - In the hopes of talking to Reginald about the '63 apocaplypse, Five (58/13) and Diego (30) track Reginald down at his laboratory, but they're attacked. - The Swedes attempt to kill Vanya (29) but she fights back with her powers.

Nov 17th 1963 Allison (32) and other black protesters begin a sit-in, which ends with police attacking. Ray witnesses Allison use her powers before she flees.

Nov 18th 1963 - Whilst giving Harlen mouth-to-mouth resuscitation, Vanya (29) unknowlingly transfers some of her powers in to him. - Klaus (33) talks to Dave (23?) in the hopes of stopping him from enlisting. However, Dave ends up punching Klaus and enlisting a week early. - In the hopes of talking to Reginald about the '63 apocaplypse, Five, Diego & Lila crash a gala at the Mexican Consulate. - A secret committee known as "The Majestic 12" meet at the gala. Reginald, a member, agrees to provide rocket technology that will allow the USA to beat the Russians to the moon. His conditions include unquestioned access to the dark side of the moon, and assurance that JFK will not be touched.

Nov 19th 1963 - The siblings finally all reunite and discuss what they should do in the remaining 6 days before the '63 apocalypse. - Reginald sends out letters summoning the siblings to a meeting. - One of the Swedes is killed and Diego is framed for it. - Five (58/13) meets the Handler. She proposes to return the siblings back to an apocalypse-free 2019 if Five kills the Commission's entire Board of Directors.

Nov 20th 1963 - Allison (32) tells Ray everything and demonstrates her powers on a shopping trip. - Ben posesses Klaus (33) for the first time. - At 7:30pm the siblings meet with Reginald in a bar at 1624 Magnolia Street. Reginald makes notes of their powers, mocks Diego, and offers Five some time-travel advice.

Nov 21st 1963 - Five (58/13) travels to 1982 to carry out his deal with the Handler. When he returns the Handler welches on her side of it. - Ben possesses Klaus and is able to talk to Diego (30). - Lila drugs Diego (30) and takes him to the Commission HQ in 1955. - The Swedes attack Allison, she Rumours one to kill the other. - Vanya (29) tries to leave with Sissy & Harlan, however she is confronted by the cops and knocked unconscious when she stars using her powers.

Nov 22nd 1963 - MORNING - Five (58/13) and Luther (31) meet with Adult Five (58) in an attempt to bargain for his time-travelling briefcase. - Grace finds evidence that Reginald plans to harm JFK and breaks up with him. - Diego (30) appears from Commission HQ in 1955 and tells Klaus & Allison that Vanya is the cause of the '63 apocalypse. - Believing Vanya to be a Russian spy, the FBI drug and torture her resulting in her remembering her past and unleashing her powers. - Ben possesses Vanya and talks her down. This results in Ben being disintegrated.

Nov 22nd 1963 - 12:20-12:30pm - After around 5 years of working for the Commission, Five (58) breaks his contract and abandons his mission to stop the assassination of JFK. He travels forward in time to March 24th 2019 and is trapped in his 13 year old body. - JFK is assassinated. - In an alternate timeline, an explosion caused by Vanya results in JFK not being assassinated. JFK believes the explosion was the Soviets and responds by bombing them, starting a nuclear war. - After a fight with his 13-bodied self, Adult Five (58) is kicked forward to March 24th 2019, but this time with the correct equation to not end up in his 13 year old body and with the knowledge that Vanya causes the '19 apocalypse. - JFK is still assassinated despite Diego's attempted intervention.

Nov 22nd 1963 - AFTERNOON - Furious at The Majestic 12 for going against their deal to not touch JFK, Reginald tells them never to contact him again. When they threaten him, Reginald reveals his alien self and murders them all. - Vanya senses something is wrong with Harlan as he loses control of his powers. She and the others head to the farm. - The Commission appears from 1955 and begins to attack. Vanya (29) easily kills all of them, but Lila holds her own due to her reflective powers. - The Handler goes to kidnap Harlan, with the aim of raising him like she did with Lila. But for some reason she just doesn't and goes to the siblings instead? - Lila chooses the siblings over The Handler. - In an alternative timeline, the Handler murders the siblings & Lila before she herself is shot by the remaining Swede. - Five (58/13) successfully time travels several seconds into the past. - The last Swede kills The Handler. - Lila takes a briefcase and disappears into time. - Vanya removes her powers from Harlan (or so she thinks). - The siblings travel forward to April 2nd 2019.

Nov 25th 1963 - Five (58/13) appears in Dallas after attempting to escape the '19 apocalypse. He witnesses an alternative timeline where the USA and Russia are at war and a nuclear strike causes the '63 apocalypse. He travels with Hazel to 10 days in the past.

April 1967 Klaus (29) appears from March 27th 2019 in Vietnam (note: in S1 the date of his arrival is 1968, however the dates given in S2 would mean he arrived in 1967). While on leave he visits Saigon. He wasn't sober during his time in Vietnam.

Feb 21st 1968 - David Katz is shot and killed on hill 689 in the A Shau Valley. - After 10 months in Vietnam, Klaus (30) travels forward to March 28th 2019.

1982 Following his deal with the Handler, Five (58/13) travels from Nov 21st 1963 and arrives at The Lonely Lodge Inn in Oshkosh, Wisconsin where he murders the Commission's entire Board of Directors.

October 1st 1989 - 43 women mysteriously give birth even though they weren’t pregnant that morning. - Sir Reginald Hargreeves begins travelling the world attempting to acquire as many of the miracle children as he can. He gets seven which he ranks in ascending order of power (though he tells them its by descending order of usefulness). He doesn't tell them about the other 36 children. - In an alternate timeline, Reginald chooses to adopt 6 different children (plus Ben) to form The Sparrow Academy because he knows of The Umbrella Academy's failings.

1993 - Reginald has already begun training the children (aged 3). It’s mentioned that they train together and also have “designated training days.” - Vanya (3) kills several nannies before Grace is created. At some unknown point after this (but before they turn 12) Grace gives the children names.

Oct-Dec 1993 Whilst working for the Commission, Five (53-58) assassinates the parents of Lila Spitts. Unbeknownst to him, the Handler then adopts Lila (4) and begins training her./p>

June 12th 1994 Reginald beings training Vanya (4) to hone her powers. He notes that in a chaotic environment (such as with the nannies) she quickly looses control, so uses a sustained note to encourage her to “locate control in another form”.

June 24th 1994 After 12 days of successful training, Vanya (4) refuses to listen and lashes out. Based on the cut on Reginald’s face, Vanya is immediately locked in the isolation chamber.

July 1994 Based on the healed cut on Reginald face, Vanya (4) is kept in isolation for at least 2 weeks. She is medicated and then made to forget about her powers by Allison (4).

1998 - Klaus (8) is locked in the mausoleum (seen in the flashback). - Diego (8) tells Klaus that licking a 9 volt battery will give him pubes.

2000 Lila (10) trains in a obstacle course while the Handler fires a machine gun at her.

June 16th 2001 Klaus (11) is locked in the mausoleum (based on notes in Reginald’s book). He tries to squeeze through the bars to escape. (NOTE: in the book, he is referred to as “Klaus”, therefore the children have been named by this point.)

UNSPECIFIED EVENTS BETWEEN 1988-2006 - 8-16 years old. - Vanya begins to play the violin. - The children are taught ballroom dance, at least seven different languages, and Homer in the original Greek. - Five would sneak out to Griddy’s Doughnuts with his “brothers and sisters.” - Diego plays bass guitar in a band with Vanya known as the Prime8’s. - Luther & Allison would sneak out to the greenhouse on the roof. - Diego & Klaus invent their own secret handshake. - Klaus & Allison would paint each others nails. - Allison uses her powers to make a soccer team. - Ben reprograms Allisons Teddy Ruxpin to say "Luther sniffs Dad's underwear".

2002 - Klaus breaks his jaw after tripping down the stairs in Grace’s heels, and has to have it wired shut for 8 weeks. - The Umbrella Academy (12) have their first portrait painted. - The children get their tattoos. - Ben is forced to use his powers to violently murder several robbers. - The Umbrella Academy stops a bank robbery and is revealed to the public.

Nov 20th 2002 Five (13) jumps forward in time. In this timeline he is gone for 16 years, 4 months, 4 days. In his personal timeline, its 45 years.

2003 Klaus (13) is locked in the mausoleum (based on the conversation in the afterlife). By this age he is already drinking and taking drugs.

2005 The Umbrella Academy (15) have their second portrait painted.

Oct-Dec 2006 - The Umbrella Academy (17) have their last portrait painted. - Ben (17) dies during a mission. Reginald blames the children. - Klaus summons Ben. Despite Ben being told to walk into a light, he decides to stay. For the next 17 years Klaus believes its his fault that Ben never passed on. - Klaus pisses in Reginalds gas tank.

UNSPECIFIED EVENTS BETWEEN 2007-2018 - 17-24 years old. - After a huge argument with Reginald, Diego leaves the Academy. - Vanya leaves the Academy. - Klaus knocks down the wall between his and Vanya’s bedroom (X). - Allison leaves the Academy and moves to LA. - Klaus leaves the Academy and is homeless. - Vanya joins the St. Pluvium Chamber Orchestra & becomes a violin teacher. - Allison builds a film career. With such hits as “the tough lawyer in the wheelchair”, the romantic comedy trilogy “Love on Loan”, and “that Sandra Bullock movie where two underpaid teaches rob a bank”. - Diego trains at the police academy and has a relationship with Eudora Patch, but he's kicked out due to his attitude. - Klaus spends time in prison. - Diego becomes a vigilante. - Klaus spends time in rehab. - Allison (22/23?) gets married to Patrick and has her daughter, Claire. - Diego gets a job at the gym mopping floors in exchange for living in the boiler room. He also boxes in matches.

2012 After a chemical accident, Luther (22) is injected with a serum which transforms his body. Based on beard and hair growth (on his head), he’s potentially in a coma for at least 3 months.

2014 - Vanya (24) writes her book. - Klaus (24) is seen in rehab/at an AA meeting.

2015 Luther (25) is sent to the moon on what he believes is an important mission. He is there for 4 years. - Allison (25/26) uses her powers on Claire (3) for the first time.

March 2018 Patrick catches Allison (28) using her power on Claire (6?).

July 2018 Patrick divorces Allison (28) and gets custody of Claire (5/6). Allison is forced to take mandatory therapy sessions if she wants any contact with her daughter.

Feb 19th 2019 Klaus (29) begins his 30 days in rehab.

March 21st/22nd 2019 - Reginald Hargreeves kills himself. - Klaus (29) leaves rehab and immediately overdoses.

March 24th 2019 - Five (58/13) arrives from Nov 22nd 1963. He's trapped in his 13 year old body and hell-bent on stopping the '19 apocalypse. - In an alternative timeline, Five (58) arrives from Nov 22nd 1963. He's in his 58 year old body and already knows Vanya is the cause of the '19 apocalypse. - The Umbrella Academy is reunited. - The Commission attempt to kill Five (58/13) in Griddy's Donuts, but fail.

March 25th 2019 - Vanya (29) meets Harold Jenkins. - The Commission sends Agents Hazel & Cha-Cha to track down and kill Five. They corner him in a department store but he escapes.

March 26th 2019 - Hazel & Cha-Cha attack the house and kidnap Klaus. - Diego (29) "kills" Grace after he realises she's malfunctioning.

March 27th 2019 - Eudora Patch is shot and killed. - Klaus (29) accidently travels to Vietnam, 1967/8.

March 28th 2019 - Klaus (30) returns from Vietnam, Feb 21st 1968 to the present day. - Vanya (29) stops taking her medication due to Harold's influence. - Pogo reactivates Grace. - Five (58/13) requests a meeting with the Handler. She offers him a new job and takes him back to Commission HQ in 1955.

March 29th 2019 - Klaus decides to sober up in order to talk to Dave. - Luther learns he was sent to the moon for no reason. - Klaus hits his head and reunites with a dead Reginald. Reginald explains he killed himself to bring The Umbrella Academy back together, and knows about the '19 apocolypse. - Vanya unleashes some of her power and kills 2 thugs.

March 30th 2019 After an argument, Vanya lashes out and accidentally slashes Allisons throat, nearly killing her.

March 31st 2019 - Ben punches Klaus in the face, becoming solid for the first time. - Vanya kills Harold Jenkins.

April 1st 2019 - Luther locks Vanya in the isolation chamber. - Vanya kills Pogo (55-60?) and brings down the house (with Grace still inside). - Hazel shoots the Handler and travels back in time with Agnes, they share 20 years together before Agnes dies of cancer. - The Handler survives being shot due to a metal plate in her head, but somehow also survives the '19 apocalypse that happens almost immediately after? - Through a build-up of Vanya's powers, a dislodged chunk of the moon destroys the Earth, causing the '19 apocalypse.

April 2nd 2019 - A 13 year old Five appears in the '19 apocalypse after jumping forward from 2002. He is trapped here for at least 40 years. - The siblings all appear from Nov 22nd 1963 to an apocalypse-free world. HOWEVER, they arive in the alternate timeline where Reginald chose to adopt 6 different children (plus Ben) and created “The Sparrow Academy”.

2059? After living in the apocalyptic future for at least 40 years, The Handler appears to Five (53?) and offers him a job as a temporal assassin. The contract is for 5 years but he ultimately breaks it early in order to return home.

***********************************************************************

Hopefully this is accurate, I don’t always trust my dyslexic counting abilities! Please let me know if you spot any errors, think of anything else I can add to the list, or if you want more info about any specific event ^‿^

#the umbrella academy #tua #klaus hargreeves #diego hargreeves #ben hargreeves #vanya hargreeves #allison hargreeves #five hargreeves #number five #luther hargreeves #reginald hargreeves

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buckybleeds · 4 years

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Supplementary Reading Materials for Chapter 2 of Nothing Fades Like The Light.

The first page is the one-page history of the US that Nick Fury gives to Steve the day after he wakes up.

The next two pages are from the 10th grade history book Steve is given to read.

All of these pages are technically-factually-true (except the last paragraph of “the cost of freedom” section of the history textbook where mutants and asgardians are discussed) but have a strong bias in their presentation.

Fury’s presentation of US history is VERY US-positive; the textbook is slightly less US positive but still much, much, much more biased than, say, Wikipedia.

Anyway, here’s the text of these pages:

This is the one-page history provided to Steve by Fury. Please note that it is technically factual but VERY biased in its presentation of American Contemporary History.

For release to Cpt. Steven G. Rogers

Per Director Nicholas J. Fury

4/25/2011

Vital points in US History from 3/5/1945 to Present

- April 12th 1945 Pres. Franklin D. Roosevelt dies of stroke, succeeded in office by VP Harry S. Truman.

- April 30th 1945 Adolph Hitler commits suicide, Germany surrenders 5/7/1945 Victory is declared in Europe.

- September 2nd 1945 Japan signs terms of surrender after Americans halted a possible invasion through the use of nuclear weapons in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

- June 24th 1948 Soviet Union blockades communist-controlled East Berlin, prompting American airdrops of food and fuel.

- June 27th 1950 American troops are sent to support South Korea against invading North Korean communists.

- September 24th 1957 Black/White school segregation is ended by presidential order

- August 2nd 1964 Vietnamese torpedo boats attack American Sailors

- November 22nd 1963 US President John F. Kennedy is assassinated in Dallas,Tx.

- January-February 1968 North Vietnamese launch a coordinated offensive against American soldiers stationed in South Vietnam

- August 6th 1965 President Lyndon B. Johnson signs the Voting Rights Act, to prevent racial discrimination from hindering democracy.

- July 20th 1969 American Astronauts become the first men to walk on the moon.

- May 3re 1970 US troops launch offensive in Cambodia to counter Vietnamese troops hiding past the Cambodian border.

- January 27th 1973 The US brokers a cease-fire with Vietnam and signs the cease-fire agreement in Paris.

- August 9th 1974 President Richard Nixon resigns and is succeeded and pardoned by VP Gerald Ford.

- April 25th 1980 American Servicemen are killed attempting to free US hostages in Iran

- January 20th 1981 President Ronald Regan is inaugurated and Iranian hostages freed.

- March 30th 1981 Failed assassination attempt on President Ronald Regan

- June 12th 1987 President Regan demands the Soviet Union tear down the Berlin Wall.

- November 9th 1989 Berlin Wall demolished.

- February 1st 1992 US President George Bush and Russian President Boris Yeltsin meet to sign an agreement declaring an end to the Cold War.

- June 26th 1993 President Bill Clinton launches an attack against Iraq after failed assassination of former President George Bush.

- September 11th 2001 Terrorists destroy the World Trade Center in New York by flying hijacked planes into the towers, killing over 3000 people

- January 29th 2002 President George W. Bush declares war on Afghanistan in response to the 9/11 terror attacks.

- June 28th 2004 the US returns sovereignty to the Iraqi interim government

- September 10th 2007 The US remains committed to training operations, counter-insurgency measures, and fighting terrorists in Iraq.

[Here’s the text of the Vietnam War page from the 10th-grade textbook given to Steve]

Perspective Shift – Photography

[included image of a US soldier burning a home during the My Lai Massacre]

In March of 1968 American Soldiers killed over 300 Vietnamese noncombatant civilians, including many women and children, in what became known as the My Lai massacre.

Testimony given by Warrant Officer Hugh Thompson Jr. described ditches full of bodies, homes being burnt, and unarmed civilians being executed by American soldiers.

While there were eyewhitnesses and many credible reports of unsanctioned American violence it is largely due to the greater portability and durability

of cameras that the American public gave up support for the Vietnam War.

Famous photos of Nguyễn Văn Lém (“Saigon Execution” 1968), Phan Thị Kim Phúc (“Napalm Girl” 1972), and even the deaths of American students protesting the

bombing of Cambodia at Kent State University in Ohio (“Kent State University Massacre” 1970) made the reality of war more obvious to people reading newspapers at home and watching reports on television.

While mass media has always been a part of modern warfare there had never before been such a stream of violent, full-color images making their way off of the battlefield and into people’s living rooms.

Previous wars had sent newsreels showing successful battles and strong soldiers back to the home front, frequently as a tactic for promoting the sale of war bonds or increasing recruitment, but the visibility of the cost of war has become more and more apparent as it became easier to show what was happening on the ground.

DISCUSSION QUESTION: How does the internet and social media shift the way that American civilians experience war today? What do you think would be different about war today without cellphone videos or livestreaming?

US commanders were more grounded in offensive and aggressive warefare than defensive positions or missions. This, combined with the heretofore unusual challenge of fighting opponents who utilized guerilla techniques and could easily blend in with (or actually be) the civilian population made a unique challenge in terms of tactics and planning.

Additionally, after the initial surge US recruits were typically drafted and only recently trained and stationed overseas. They were unfamiliar with the local culture and languages, unfamiliar with the terrain and wildlife – even unfamiliar with the food. A recruit from Indianapolis would find himself in a very strange place standing on the bank of the Mekong river.

This led to engagements unlike any ever seen in American military campaigns – search and destroy operations were stymied on the ground by impenetrable jungles and the ability of the Viet Cong to disappear into the local population but bases were left poorly defended – the Viet Cong took advantage of these strategic inconsistencies and carefully provoked US offensive actions into Hill Fights in the Central Highlands as a diversonary tactic before launching the Tet Offensive.

The Tet Offensive (1/30/1968) was a major strategy launched at more than 100 cities, with focused attacks on government buildings, military installations, and the US Embassy in Saigon. During the first month of the offensive over 1,100 Americans and 14,000 Vietnamese civilians were killed.

The Tet Offensive marked the beginning of a collapse of morale among US soldiers and marked an end to majority support at home. Infantry units began to falsify or simply disobey orders or even turn around to attack their commanding officers, sometimes going so far as to kill those giving orders.

DEFINITION – FRAGGING

Fragging is the act of killing one’s own officer or teammates in war, named for fragmentation grenades because officers killed in grenade incidents were noted as accidental deaths. There were over 900 fragging incidents investigated in the later years of the war.

Questions were also being continually raised about the ethics and efficacy of US tactics. The use of Napalm was uncontroversial at the beginning of the campaign and justified as a way to protect US troops and eradicate cover for the Viet Cong, but after tens of thousands of civilians, many of them children, were killed or burned in napalm drops support for the war continued to drop as it became impossible to ignore that the American use of incendiaries on civilians was only causing increased support for the North Vietnamese forces.

Pathways Through American History: Chapter 21 – The Vietnam War

Hugh Thompson Junior, who is mentioned in the “perspective shift: photography” section of the history book Steve reads, is maybe the truest definition of an American hero - he was responsible for reporting and attempting to end the My Lai massacre, landing his helicopter between American soldiers and the Vietnamese civilians they were attempting to kill and evacuating survivors of the massacre. He faced tremendous criticism for his actions and was ostracized for testifying against American soldiers. He was eventually awarded the Distinguished Flying Cross for extraordinary bravery in flight. He threw it away.

You can read more about him being just the biggest swinging dick in the northern hemisphere here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hugh_Thompson_Jr.

Additionally there was an opera written about his actions and dedicated to his bravery and to the survivors of the My Lai massacre, which includes music played on instruments made from artillery left in Vietnam after the war. You can see excerpts from that opera here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQu9lxaDsI8

[Here’s the text of a page from Steve’s history book - this one is about the Patriot Act]

Take Note

[includes image of a sign that says “The FBI has not been here – watch this sign carefully to see if that changes”]

Librarians strenuously objected to the USA PATRIOT act, specifically Section 215, which allows the FBI to request books, records, papers, and other documents that a suspected terrorist might have accessed, including what books had been checked out from a library. The American Library Association stated that library records are fundamentally different from ordinary business records and that the provision granting access to library records would have a chilling effect on free speech but discouraging the use of libraries or the free exploration of information therein.

The sign pictured in this section was posted in a library in 2005; while libraries were not permitted to announce that the FBI had requested records because of the gag order attached to the provision they were allowed to post a sign saying there had been no requests for information and then surreptitiously remove the signs if that changed.

DISCUSSION QUESTION: Is checking a book out from a library free speech? Do you think you would search different websites if you knew your parents or school were monitoring where you went? Do you think it’s worth it to be careful about what you search if it means someone else doesn’t get bullied or hurt because of search filtering?

The Cost of Freedom

after 9/11 it became clear that our democracy was not prepared for the spectre of terrorism that had invaded our shores - but some of the responses have been criticized as worse than the cause.

The USA PATRIOT act continues to be controversial for many reasons, but most frequently cited are the normalization of mass state surveillance and erosion of personal privacy and the elimination of constitutional protections for certain classes of terrorist suspects.

Reauthorizations of the USA PATRIOT act have continually approved unwarranted wiretapping and gag orders on people (like librarians and internet service providers) who might otherwise warn people about data collection in the public interest. Some provisions have become more controversial as time has passed – for instance the “Lone Wolf” provision that allowed for the warrantless wire-tapping of individuals not connected to known terrorist groups has come under additional scrutiny as groups like the ACLU point out that the FBI’s definitions of “terrorist” are both expansive and opaque. Other sections are more and more accepted – nationwide service of search warrants for electronic evidence is wholly accepted now whereas the question of widening jurisdictions was seen as a threat to individual liberty when the act was signed into law in 2001.

Of greater concern are the changes made to criminal law in broadening the definitions of terrorism; it is now possible to be considered a terrorist for causing mass destruction as well as causing injury or death, and the definitions of “cyber terrorism” set down in 2001 might certainly give computer-users in 2008 some pause; accessing a ‘protected computer’ is a terrorist action, after all – or at least it can be.

The indefinite detention of non-US citizens is also of serious concern internationally, though American citizens are not subject to the indefinite holds that are possible for non-citizens. Constitutional scholars, civil liberties groups, and many activists contend that constitutional freedoms are guaranteed to all people on American soil, but that is a more and more difficult question to tackle when ‘aliens’ discussed in the law become literal Aliens, as the revealed Asgardians and their advanced technology prove. The protections that might be necessary for an accused immigrant don’t need to be enshrined the same way for beings we have no better description for than ‘demigod.’

Mutant activist groups have recently hopped into the fray in this conversation, as the USA PATRIOT act can also classify their genetic powers as terrorist weapons and the damage that is caused when an adolescent mutant matures into their talent has more than once been labeled a terrorist action.

A Different Perspective

President George W. Bush, who signed the USA PATRIOT Act into law, has stood by his decision all this time and continues to insist that it is in the best interest of the American people.

The Department of Homeland Security, a new branch of the Department of Defense, was also formed under President Bush and has seen similar ups-and-downs. The most well-known face of the DHS is the Transportation Security Administration, or TSA, who most of us know from long lines at the airport and taking off your shoes to get on a plane.

It’s true that these things are inconvenient, but security usually isn’t convenient - there have been no attempted shoe or liquid bombings on planes since the TSA changed their carry-on policies, so maybe the trade-off is worth the inconvenience.

Pathways Through American History: Chapter 28 – The War on Terror

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dbhilluminate · 5 years

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RK800 Program

Date Founded: November 2nd, 2037 Dates Active: March 2038 - February 2039

———

With early signs of deviancy on the rise, Cyberlife diverted a large portion of its resources to an experimental program of prototype investigative Androids known as the RK800.

Although Detroit didn’t come to know Connor until August 15th, 2038, in the five months leading up to his reveal Cyberlife had covertly deployed 49 predecessors to Connor #313 248 317 -50 to the other 49 States, including variant models created to assist the Primary investigators and act as redundancy failsafes to continue investigations in the event that one was destroyed in the field (until the primary is able to return).

The number of variants afforded to the primary were dependent upon Android population and open cases of deviancy per state- some of these included a pair of Intelligents that had been upgraded and retrofitted with the necessary programming to match the specs of the RK800 model (Dennis and Nick), and one variant RK800 meant to blend in and act as human as convincingly possible (Trevor).

During routine maintenance of Connor-50 / Zero (two months following his deployment), a RAID redundancy failure in the unit’s hardware caused the data being housed on the dying drive to download into a new RK, resulting in an unplanned iteration, Connor-51. Instead of scrapping the error, Amanda shelved it in her own self-interests, with special plans to use the RK to track down Illuminate and gain her trust (unbeknownst to him), destroy her, and seize control of her carefully orchestrated revolution. After taking special care to nurture his empathy subroutines, he was deployed to Detroit on a trial basis to negotiate the release of a hostage and surpassed her expectations with flying colors. A little over a month later, he was deployed to assist DCPD with their investigations and carry out the mission she’d buried deep in his coding.

• • •

The program was terminated following the ratification of the 28th Amendment (which granted Civil Rights to Androids, and in turn made it impossible to further prosecute cases of “deviancy”), which left any roving investigators still in service aimless. Unable to recall their “assets”, most were integrated into the Police units they had been assisting prior to the revolution, though some deviated and scattered to the wind. Others, who were further from deviancy and with no mission objective to follow, self-terminated.

Upon finding out about the missing RK’s, Illuminate quietly assigned Archangel Detectives in each respective region to track them down and help settle them into their new lives.

Following the deactivation of the program was the loss of access to the RK800’s Lazarus protocol- a cloud-based program activated upon an RK800’s destruction, in which a back-up copy of the unit in question is transmitted to a new body before its data is lost for good.

Though all RK’s are born with the ability to resurrect (if Amanda deems it necessary to the investigation), it is dependent upon a direct link to Cyberlife, and once the link is severed, they no longer have access to this protocol.

Zion later implements its own version of the Lazarus protocol, which is reserved strictly for those holding positions of political power, as a failsafe in the event of another assignation attempt of Zion’s leadership.

———

Currently Active Primary units

(known)

Cooper (-05, Charleston)

Adam (-11, Charlotte)

Ash (-20 / -57, Denver)

Lincoln (-28, Washington DC)

Levi (-32, Wichita)

Nolan (-36, Seattle)

Rom (-42, Las Vegas)

Jack (-44, Milwaukee)

Zero / Zach (-50 / -62, Detroit)

RK / Connor (-51 / -58, Detroit)

(unconfirmed)

Carter (-01, Chicago)

Wes (-06, Portland)

Owen (-13, Bridgeport)

Sam (-15, Indianapolis)

Aaron (-18, New York City)

Andrew (-24, Salt Lake City)

Carson (-25, Atlanta)

Dallas (-29, New Orleans)

Ian (-31, Birmingham)

Caleb (-33, Fargo)

Theo (-39, Cheyenne)

Dean (-41, Kansas City)

Chase (-47, Columbus)

Miles (-48, Miami)

Decommissioned Primary units

(Destruction confirmed)

(-02 / -54, Newark) - self-terminated

(-03, Boise) - destroyed in the field, not resurrected

Trevor (-04, Anchorage) - destroyed in the field, program preserved and repurposed

Logan (-07, Philadelphia) - killed post-revolution, in the line of duty

Maxwell (-08 / -61, Baltimore) - killed post-revolution, in the line of duty

(-09, Minneapolis) - self-terminated

(-10, Wilmington) - destroyed in the field, not resurrected

Brandon (-12 / -55, Dallas) - killed post-revolution, in the line of duty

(-14, Albuquerque) - destroyed in the field, not resurrected

(-16, Des Moines) - self-terminated

(-17, Honolulu) - destroyed in the field, not resurrected

(-19, Oklahoma City) - destroyed in the field, not resurrected

(-21, Louisville) - destroyed in the field, not resurrected

(-22, Providence) - self-terminated

Conan (-23 / -52 / -56 / -60, Los Angeles) - destroyed at Cyberlife Tower

Henry (-26, Augusta) - killed evading capture by Archangel

Dorian (-27, Milwaukee) - self-terminated

(-30, Sioux Falls) - destroyed in the field, not resurrected

(-34, Little Rock) - self-terminated

Calvin (-35 / -59, Phoenix) - killed post-revolution, assisting Archangel

(-37, Jackson) - destroyed in the field, not resurrected

(-38, Charleston) - destroyed in the field, not resurrected

(-40, Manchester) - self-terminated

Caleb (-42, Nashville) - killed evading capture by Archangel

Luke (-43, Jacksonville) - killed evading capture by Archangel

Spencer (-45 / -53, Boston) - killed by Nicodemus, in the line of duty

(-46, Burlington) - destroyed in the field, not resurrected

Alex (-49, Virginia Beach) - killed evading capture by Archangel

Currently Active Variant units

(known)

Dennis (Detroit)

Nick (Detroit)

Trevor (Boston)

Garrett (Los Angeles) - (Fancast: Finn Wittrock)

Greg (Los Angeles) - (Fancast: Jack Quaid)

———

*RK800’s that were killed and not resurrected, or self-terminated, will not be named

***Not all named RK800’s and variants will be receiving wikis. Some will play small roles in later to-be-determined cases or will be mentioned in passing for world-building purposes. Only a small handful will make regular appearances, their profiles will be linked.

#detroit: become human #dbh: fanfiction #DBH #dbh: connor #dbhilluminate #dbhiredemption #detroit become human

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dfwemelie · 5 years

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April 2019🌦

Wow, April 1st and so much has already happened. There were 4 fights today. The first one was 2 guys on the back stairwell I didnt know. The second one was Eugene punching Michael in the jaw over minecraft. And the last two happened on my bus. We sat on the side of the road for an hour until we were cleared to leave. The cops showed up and apparently it's a big deal. After the first fight on the bus, a kid jumped out the window and ran home. Over all pretty entertaining cause I've never actually seen a real fight before (only been in them). My mom and dad also dropped of my moms bestfriend to prison in Dallas today. It was really hard on both of them. We know she'll be back soon, its not that long.

April 4th, I almost punched Kelly in class cause she wouldnt stop talking shit :)

April 5th, hi welcome to missing Calvin a fucking lot :( (update from April 30, fucking die bitch)

April 9th, Yesterday we did Staar rotations. I hung out with Scott and Blake the entire time. Since I got Scott's snap we've been texting alot and I found he likes me.

April 10th, I told Calvin I thought we needed a 1 week break and now hes threatening to break up with me. Scott's helping me through it so I'm ok.

April 12th, Scott and I facetimed yesterday and after that we played Zombies with Seth. It was fun but I kept having to go help my mom and dad with something. Today he walked me to my first class which is Geometry. I think its extremely obvious he likes me. It's cute tho, Kaylie approves.

I have been thinking about this alot recently and I feel like its the right thing to do. I’m gonna break up with Calvin when 8th period starts. I just cant wait to do it later, it’s killing me inside. I am doing it over text because I genuienly feel like my life would be in danger if I told him in person. I’ll let you know how I goes and how he reacts. Wish me luck.

April 14th, I forgot to report how the breakup with Calvin went. Honestly went better than I expected. I'm glad we broke up, that was a really toxic relationship.

Scotty just said the sweetest fucking thing I've ever heard I'm gonna cry.

April 15th, OMG OMG OMG ok. this happened like 10 minutes ago so bare with me I'm still a little bit shook. Sooooo Scott took me to the back of the stairs by the Geometry and Art hall and KISSED ME! KISSED! ME! It was very sudden and at one point my braces got in the way but it's fine, we dont talk about it. After that we were walking down the stairs he said "well since that happened I might as well ask you now instead of after school, would you do the honors of being my girlfriend?" obviously I said yes cause hi, I like him, we just kissed. I immediately texted Kaylie. Scott now knows I tell Kaylie literally everything about anything. I cant help it, she is my bestest friend in the entire world. She knows everything about my life and she has always been there for me. My stomach doesnt feel good so ima take a quick nap until 1st period is over.

bitch even MORE SHIT has happened! first of all, Scott walked me to every one of my classes today which was super sweet. When the last bell rang Scott and I met up and just walked around school since we were both staying after. We just went up and down stairwells and kissed for a little then went outside by the bus ramps. When we got their we started kissing again, then talked and hugged, then walked around. Imagine that but legit 15 times. One time we were kissing and he picked me and continued to kiss me. When it was time for me to go we walked past all of our baseball and football friends. They were all cheering him on and congratulating him. We walked to the front of the school then my mom arrived. We hugged and kissed goodbye and that was it. We've been talking since.

I found out Izzy likes this girl and I'm so proud of him. He seems so happy and he blushed when I was talking to him about her. I'm so happy for him :')

Scotty told me hes my new addiction to stop my original. hes funny thinking I can stop.

April 16th, I had to go to a mandatory drill team meeting today. I'm worried i might not be able to tryout cause my grades are too low for me to bring up. It's fine tho. idc anymore.

April 17th, I get to hang out with Scotty after school today again

skrt skrt its 7:37. Scott and I hung out where we did last time. We basically watched Infinity War and made out the entire time. There were alot of people around cause everyone was getting their physical. Gage saw us but idc about that. I think around 2 hours ago Scott texted me but as soon as I got home I passed out. He said his mom found out about us dating and i was nervous. He said he was getting out of the car and his phone turned on and both his lock screen and home screen is us and his mom saw. She said I was cute and he had good taste. Glad his mom approves lol, now I just gotta tell mine. I was planning on it when she comes back from San Antonio later this week but we will see.

April 20th, wow I haven't done this in awhile sorry lol. Today I went to my friend Jaydens house and went swimming. It was really fun. She keeps wanting me to talk to her cousin Seth who is the same ago as me. Little does she know I have a boyfriend UwU.

April 21st, its 1:08 in the morning lol. Scotty got abssss. I'm not complaining, it's a weakness of mine lol.

April 22nd, yesterday was Easter and it was pretty fun. I went to my cousins house and hung around 2 goats and like 50 chickens. I keep telling my parents I want a goat and they said I'll get one one day, it would just have to stay at my grandma's house.

I'm done trying to fix something this broken. I've cried too many tears over you. I'm done.

April 24th, IM FINNA THROW SOME HANDS IF DEREK AND CALVIN DONT STOP TALKING SHIT ABOUT ME AND SCOTTY OMGGGGG

April 25th, Scotty and I stayed up till midnight watching Netflix on facetime together. We got it to where it was timed perfectly so it was like we were watching it together. I’m hanging out with him after my fashion show rehersal after 4 until 5:15-5:30. I feel way happier and amazing now that I am with him. He makes me happy uwu. A couple days ago Kaylie showed me these socks on Amazon that she really wanted and i’m gonna suprise her with a pair of them tomorrow. I bought 2 pairs so that we could be matching and cause they are super cute. I am kinda nervous about it idk why. I know she is gonna love them. I like giving gifts to my friends, especially Kaylie cause she is my bestfriend and I would do anything for her to be happy.

April 26th, I went to see Avengers End Game with Jesse and Evan and it was the best movie I have ever seen, I get to see it next monday which is amazing. I gave Kaylie her shiba socks this morning and she loved them of course. I’m happy I had the chance to get her something she wanted. Scott and I were sitting and lunch and Carlos sprayed his water bottle everywhere. It scared me alot lol.

April 28th, first of all...friday....hottest thing ever omg. I went on a trail thing yesterday and it was fun ig. I'm at my grandparents house and everyone wants me to make food??? like why??? I'm lazy and I just wanna sit on my phone looking at memes. uuggghhh. I'm supposed to be getting my nose peircing today but I seriously doubt that will be happening. My mom keeps saying shes gonna take me but it never happens.

April 29th, I was supposed to get my permit today huy I didnt have my ssc so we gotta do it tmrw. I'm on ft with Scott and his cousin Maria is adorable and I love her

April 30th, I got my permit this morning and now I'm about to cry. Mrs.Clary is stressing me the fuck out and I cant handle it anymore.

okay um hi. Scotty....best kisser ever. that was really hot. like holy shit

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danarglenn · 4 years

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Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy

These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment - some of the sectors that will recover very slowly.

----- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration ----- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers.

Click on graph for larger image. This data shows the seven day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Blue) and 2020 (Red). This data is as of September 6th. The seven day average is down 66% from last year. Usually travel declines at this time of year (see Blue line), but travel is holding steady this year (so increasing as a percent of travel last year). ----- Restaurants: OpenTable ----- The second graph shows the 7 day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities.

Thanks to OpenTable for providing this restaurant data: This data is updated through September 6, 2020. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year." Note that this data is for "only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market". Since some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown. The 7 day average for New York is still off 65% YoY, and down 19% in Florida. Dining is increasing again, probably mostly outdoor dining. ----- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -----

This data shows domestic box office for each week (red) and the maximum and minimum for the previous four years. Data is from BoxOfficeMojo through September 3rd. Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released. Movie ticket sales have picked up over the last few weeks, and were close to $16 million last week (compared to usually under $200 million per week in the late Summer / early Fall). Most movie theaters are still closed, but are reopening (probably with limited seating at first). ----- Hotel Occupancy: STR -----

This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. The red line is for 2020, dash light blue is 2019, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year probably since the Great Depression for hotels). This data is through August 29th. COVID-19 crushed hotel occupancy, and is currently down 27.7% year-over-year. Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change. The leisure travel season usually peaks at the beginning of August, and then the occupancy rate typically declines sharply in the Fall. With so many schools closed, the leisure travel season might have lasted longer than usual this year, but it is unlikely business travel will pickup significantly in the Fall. ----- Gasoline Supplied: Energy Information Administration -----

This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week last year of . At one point, gasoline supplied was off almost 50% YoY. As of August 28th, gasoline supplied was only off about 7% YoY (about 93% of normal). Note: I know several people that have driven to vacation spots - or to visit family - and they usually would have flown. So this might be boosting gasoline consumption over the summer - and summer vacation might have lasted a little longer this year. ----- Transit: Apple Mobility ----- This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This is just a general guide - people that regularly commute probably don't ask for directions. There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. However the index is set "relative to its weekday-specific average over January–February", and is not seasonally adjusted, so we can't tell if an increase in mobility is due to recovery or just the normal increase in the Spring and Summer.

This data is through September 6th for the United States and several selected cities. The graph is the running 7 day average to remove the impact of weekends. IMPORTANT: All data is relative to January 13, 2020. This data is NOT Seasonally Adjusted. People walk and drive more when the weather is nice, so I'm just using the transit data. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is still only about 57% of the January level. It is at 49% in Los Angeles, and 58% in Houston. ----- New York City Subway Usage ----- Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR).

This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This data is through Friday, September 4th. Schneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources. He notes: "Data updates weekly from the MTA’s public turnstile data, usually on Saturday mornings" from Calculated Risk http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/09/seven-high-frequency-indicators-for.html

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doomedandstoned · 7 years

Photo

Texas Doom Crushers

DESTROYER OF LIGHT

Unleash Chamber of Horrors!

~By Stephanie V. Cantu~

This summer, DESTROYER OF LIGHT released a doom masterpiece, capturing an atmosphere of cold dungeon dwellings that moan of sorrowful riffs and vocal passion. ‘Chamber of Horrors’ (2017 - Heavy Friends Records) successfully reaps raw emotion and is dark in tone, lyrical content, and musical temperament. The cover artwork by Adam Burke perfectly sets the atmosphere for the record’s journey into torment and terror.

I would especially recommend any fans of OM, Yob, and High On Fire to check out this album and give it a good listen. The Austin, Texas band has taken on a natural evolution of sound, a leap in wisdom and mastery, showing the artistic intelligence as it has instinctively progressed since their 2012 debut. As if being revealed fresh from the Veil, the new LP exudes mystery and ethereal qualities that remind me of occult gatherings and tribal sacrifice. Seven tracks clock in at 45 minutes, with the opening track beginning our hell-sleigh ride into the dark descent of the Chamber of Horrors.

WHISPERS INTO THE THRESHOLD

Chamber of Horrors by Destroyer of Light

The album introduction blends theatrics and instrumental tension in true doom metal fashion. The mounting pressure and slow climb of the guitar and drums sets the mournful fate that is to befall. Clanging chains that oppress your limbs rattle about, promising no salvation as sharp Whispers Into The Threshold speak evil incantations into your ear.

INTO THE SMOKE

Chamber of Horrors by Destroyer of Light

A riff born in Iommi’s graveyard breaks the clouds of mist at your ankles as you step Into The Smoke. Enter hypnosis, with sludge vox reminiscent of Mike IX Williams from Eyehategod, as rhythmic drone progressions rehash everything we love about traditional doom metal song structure. When the singing aspect of frontman Steve Colca's vocal performance comes to light, we hear an introspective sorrow that is quite distinct from the torment of the sludgey verses. We find here a soulful voice taking on qualities of Middle Eastern influence, containing tones similar to mantra chanting. The guitar leads are awesome on this one, too, even jamming through the vocal verses. Destroyer of Light is not afraid to experiment musically, while still keeping very true to proper song structure and development.

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THE VIRGIN

Chamber of Horrors by Destroyer of Light

Incense vibes dominate this track, bringing us into prayer for the soul of The Virgin that is to be placed upon the altar. Sacrificial rites and hooded robes are the occasion, and if you have a flaming torch at hand it would do quite well. I particularly enjoy the angry vocal outbursts that contrast effectively with the soothing singing sections. This type of delivery reminds me of King Diamond when he does alternate expressions of different characters, always keeping things thematic. Songs like this construct a pathway for visionary journeys to take place through lyrical storytelling.

In this case, we’re led into the crypt for a sacrifice, and we hear twin harmonies of agony from both Steve Colca and doom vocalist Suzy Bravo of Witchcryer. The combination of male and female vox on this one adds a majestic value to the cinematic nature of this track. We hear the cries of the virgin intensify in torment as the ritual progresses. Heavy doom and witch sacrifices bring the blood, making this record a winner already, just three tracks in.

There is a spiritual ring to this one, creating an atmosphere conducive to ancient meditation and stoner groove. Destroyer of Light keeps it heavy and super tradish, making an honorary ode to doom metal, while still remaining fresh. Can’t stress enough the perfect alchemy that balances these new tracks. Destroyer of Light demos prowess and musical chemistry in producing soundscapes that evoke emotion and transport you to their realm.

TWILIGHT PROCESSION

Chamber of Horrors by Destroyer of Light

We have here a complimentary groove of rhythm and lead guitar trade-offs, a sort of slow funeral transition resembled by this melancholic guitar segue. After the death of the virgin in the previous track, we allow the heaviness to sink in with this soothing, bluesy Twilight Procession.

LUXCRUSHER

Chamber of Horrors by Destroyer of Light

This has to be my favorite song on the record. Steve Colca shows his versatile prowess in vocal delivery on this trademark Destroyer of Light banger. There’s a unique flair to the vocals, with an underlying primordial rage seeping through the verses. At times, it can almost sound like the singing is in some cryptic, ancient language. The stoner mantra and incense vibes return, furthering the meditative groove we heard earlier on the album. Destroyer of Light brings down the Eye of Ra in this LuxCrusher and desert vibes go arguably further when we enter subtle Egyptian territory on the five-string at certain key moments.

We’re given steady, hypnotic rhythm guitar breakdowns interwoven with electric leads, drum fills, and sonic distortion as the track unravels. The bass brings a distinct depth and richness that complements the thick, heavy atmosphere of sound. I particularly enjoy the lyrical writing on this one. The words betray a certain wisdom that comes from an intimate knowledge of these otherworldly dimensions.

Midnight worship at the shrine Sonic ritual slowing time Eyes behind the altar gaze You're pulled into an altered haze

PRISONER OF ETERNITY

Chamber of Horrors by Destroyer of Light

Before us is an ode to those ancient ways of mysterious alchemy. A potion of immortality has claimed our frontman, who stands before us as a Prisoner of Eternity. Centuries pass us by in this Destroyer of Light track, as we hear the words of a sorrowful doomed fate.

Is there a way to die? Centuries pass me by, empires rising, falling All who I loved are dead; I hear the voices calling Oh god, just let me die, can't stand eternal waiting

The drums take spotlight in this song, with every cymbal clash and snare hit adding a sort of aggression. The guitars sing in harmony, as a well-composed orchestra of doom takes over. Every instrument adds a masterful varnish as it chimes in, setting this band apart in musical refinement. There is vibrato in the guitars that adds such a wicked appeal, triggering a palpable spine tingle as it creeps its way up your back. We also get a primo axe solo towards the end of the track, just before the finishing vocals lay us down to die. All in all, there is no band that compares to the perfect fusion of stoner and doom that Destroyer of Light conjures.

BURIED ALIVE

Chamber of Horrors by Destroyer of Light

A slow doom crusher closes the record, imbuing wisdom upon our fragile minds as we faintly cling to life...in the Chamber of Horrors. The opening verses move us steadily along before we become Buried Alive into a grave of heavy sound. Bow before the Altar of Damnation and rebuke your righteousness, as you realize the Earth will soon be your tomb. Haunting lyrics promise no salvation for our end as the record moves into completion:

You dread of dying but you’re the living dead

Stop wasting time Just kill yourself No need to live You’re no messiah

God’s not your friend Until the end You're all alone Buried alive

We hear some of the most vicious vocalizations of the album on this track, characterized by Steve's monstrous, low-growling incantations. The song ends with the sounds of a dungeon door falling heavier upon our fates.

☠

Destroyer of Light is:

Steve Colca (guitar, vocals) Keegan Kjeldsen (guitar) Kelly "Penny" Turner (drums)

Chamber of Horrors was mixed by Matt Meli at Orb Recording Studios in Austin and mastered by James Plotkin.

Buy Destroyer of Light’s ‘Chamber of Horrors’ vinyl here.

I’m lucky to have had the opportunity to witness this band’s magic several times, as they tour very often. Their stage performance is an Orange amp worship ritual and a séance of frequencies. Destroyer of Light just completed a 2017 summer tour run with Goya that went through the Southern Bible Belt and Midwestern United States, making a pit stop at the Electric Funeral Fest in Denver.

You can catch Destroyer of Light on the road with DUEL in just a matter of weeks, leading up to the Stoned Meadow of Doom Fest this fall:

Sept. 27th - Dallas, TX (Renos Chop Shop) Sept. 28th - Oklahoma City, OK (Blue Note) Sept. 29th - Lawrence, KS (Replay Lounge) Sept. 30th - Sioux Falls, SD (Stoned Meadow of Doom Fest)

Follow The Band.

Get Their Music.

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Destroyer of Light in Portland (film by Billy Goate)

#D&S Reviews #Destroyer of Light #Austin #Texas #Doom #Metal #Sci-Fi #Stephanie V. Cantu #Doomed & Stoned

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junker-town · 5 years

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The W Is It: Arike vs. Napheesa for ROY is getting spicy

Collier’s been the most consistent player all year long, but Arike’s been on fire. The debate’s as close as it’s ever been.

Welcome to The W Is It, a weekly column about all the stuff that freakin’ rules in the WNBA. Have any tips of topics to cover? Find me @mellentuck on Twitter.

Arike Ogunbowale dribbled in-and-out to throw Sparks forward Tierra Ruffin-Pratt off her trail. The same move forced former MVP Nneka Ogwumike to swing her momentum in the wrong direction, too, allowing the rookie to slip past the double-team.

With the clock ticking down at the under-three minute mark in the fourth on Wednesday against the title-contender, Ogunbowale bounced off Ogwumike’s knee, used one hand on the ground to save herself from falling, and took one long leap off the wrong foot to lay the ball in. That notched her 28th point on the night (she’d finish with 35) to seal the upset win for her Dallas Wings team.

The WNBA’s regular season is three weeks from close, and the debate for Rookie of the Year has never been hotter. The race is down to two players: Ogunbowale and the Minnesota Lynx’s Napheesa Collier. Who you think deserves the award says everything about why you watch basketball.

Ogunbowale and Collier’s games are entirely opposite. The Wings guard, who you probably remember from the 2018 NCAA Final Four when she hit the game-winning shot at the buzzer to beat UConn and then did the same to beat Mississippi State in the final, is a pure scorer. Collier, a 6’2 forward, is a lockdown defender who can work her offense in the post.

Collier has by far been the league’s most consistent rookie, and she makes the greatest impact on the most important part of the game — winning. She scores 12 points per night with six rebounds, two assists, two steals, and a block per game. She’s efficient too, shooting 47 percent from the field and 34 percent from three-point range on two tries per night. She’s a versatile wing when she’s asked to be, an undersized big in spurts and a capable passer.

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Her offense is great, but her biggest strength is on the defensive end. Despite being a 22-year-old rookie, head coach Cheryl Reeve has had no sweat matching Collier up against players as good as the MVP-to-be Elena Delle Donne. Collier’s strong with a long wingspan and has incredible discipline to stay grounded on ball-fakes. Her complete game has led her win shares per 40 number — a measure that estimates how many wins a player contributed to — to .152. That’s an all-star’s level, which is why it was no surprise she was named a replacement in Las Vegas when A’ja Wilson was unable to play due to injury.

It’s Collier who’s helped keep an injured, depleted Lynx roster in playoff position.

As a fundamentalist, Collier doesn’t have the same viral moments a player with Ogunbowale’s skillset delivers nightly, though. A 5’8 super-quick shifty ball-handler, Ogunbowale can race down the floor and shoot from anywhere, no matter how contested the look is.

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For now, she’s merely a scorer, though, which is why her struggles shooting the ball at the beginning of the season made her tough to play. But in the second half of the season, she’s been ON — an electrifying, must-watch talent in the month of August, even winning a Player of the Week. In her last seven games, she’s scored 23 points per game on 45 percent shooting, including 47 percent from deep (16-of-34). In that same span, she’s also averaged four assists, and her rebuilding team’s gone 4-3.

Ogunbowale hasn’t been this player all season long, and that should cause concern for voters. For the season, she’s averaged 16 points on just 37 percent shooting from the field and 33 percent from deep. But her highlight reel could run hours deep, because her greatest moments are breathtaking.

There’s still three weeks left for things to change, but this year’s Rookie of the Year vote appears to be clear-cut. A vote for Collier is a vote for the better player. A vote for Ogunbowale is a vote for the flashier one. The 2019 WNBA ROY debate is the apex of hoops fan arguments.

And now for some fun stuff.

Liz Cambage and Cheyenne Parker’s was everything

The Chicago Sky and Liz Cambage have some serious beef that isn’t going away any time soon. You can read about it here. But it reached its on-court peak when Parker tried to square up and Cambage just ... sorta stared at her.

LIZ'S REACTION pic.twitter.com/ZzCnPrsQQh

— Matt Ellentuck (@mellentuck) August 18, 2019

Angel McCoughty’s going to play in the final game this season!

The Atlanta Dream have struggled without McCoughtry, who’s been out since last year’s postseason recovering from knee surgery. But at least we’ll see her play once!

View this post on Instagram

proud to announce that I will be playing in the last game September 8th. It’s an honor for all the atlanta dream fans to see me in that jersey before the 2019 season ends. . Can’t wait #godisgood #blessed #favor #

A post shared by @ mccoughtry on Aug 20, 2019 at 5:31am PDT

The Washington Mystics broke a WNBA record with 18 threes

Who’s beating this team? LMAO.

All 18 of our record breaking threes!! pic.twitter.com/GqE21n9XSe

— Washington Mystics (@WashMystics) August 18, 2019

Please watch this kid do the Las Vegas Aces’ “Lady Aces” chant

It’s perfect.

Filming a workout in Boston and this lil kid busts this chant out randomly. Y’all I was cryingggggg..... THE WNBA IS IMPORTANT !!!! LADY ACCCCCESSESSSSS. @SydJColson @_ajawilson22 @ecambage @LVAces @ariivory @TheWinsidr @HighPostHoops @WNBA pic.twitter.com/VnGvGRZdA0

— lwproductions (@lwproductions4) August 13, 2019

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panicpress · 7 years

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Fall Out Boy Releases Wave Two of M A N I A, “Champion”

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Fall Out Boy’s new single is here! Fans have been anxiously waiting for the second release off of the band’s new album M A N I A (preorder here), and the track doesn’t disappoint! While the first song could be compared in some ways to a few of Fall Out Boy’s previous songs - while still being new, and even experimental - this song is almost entirely different in its sound than what fans have seen before from the beloved Chicago band. This said, the feel of FOB still resonates in the song; especially with the lyrics, which have of late been going back to their old style. Have your own thoughts? Message us about it! The new song came with a video of Pete Wentz, Post Malone, and the llamas from the previous video (watch here) skating. It’s stated as a visualizer, and the band said in their announcement of the song that an official video will be coming soon! Click below for M A N I A tour dates w/ Blackbear, and purchase tickets here.

September 16th - Chicago, IL @ House of Blues October 20th - Cleveland, OH @ Quicken Loans Arena October 21st - Saint Louis, MO @ Scottrade Center October 22nd - St. Paul, MN @ Xcel Energy Center October 24th - Detroit, MI @ Little Caesars Arena October 25th - Toronto, ON @ Air Canada Centre October 27th - Boston, MA @ TD Garden October 28th - Brooklyn, NY @ Barclays Center October 29th - Philadelphia, PA @ Wells Fargo Center November 2nd - Fairfax, VA @ EagleBank Arena November 3rd - Charlotte, NC @ Spectrum Center November 4th - Atlanta, GA @ Philips Arena November 5th - Tampa, FL @ Amalie Arena November 7th - Houston, TX @ Toyota Center November 8th - Dallas, TX @ American Airlines Center November 10th - Denver, CO @ Pepsi Center November 12th - Seattle, WA @ KeyArena November 14th - Oakland, CA @ Oracle Arena November 15th - San Diego, CA @ Viejas Arena November 17th - Inglewood, CA @ The Forum November 18th - Phoenix, AZ @ Talking Stick Resort Arena

#new songs #news #fall out boy #fob #champion fall out boy #champion fob #champion #m a n i a #punk rock #contributor mikey

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flauntpage · 5 years

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Need to Know Betting Info for Saints-Cowboys

It will be a battle for NFC SUPREMACY when the first-place Cowboys (I hate everything) and Saints kick off tonight in Dallas. Eh, supremacy is probably an oversell on the Cowboys, but this game carries significant playoff implications for both teams as New Orleans tries to strengthen its grip on the conference’s top seed, while Dallas looks to further distance itself from Philadelphia and Washington in a weak NFC East. They can do so by knocking off what appears to be the NFL’s most dangerous team.

Eagles fans will be locked in on this one, rooting hard for a Dallas loss that would open the door for a three-way tie atop the division should the Eagles beat the Redskins at home on Monday night. While that subplot alone creates plenty of intrigue, this much-hyped prime time game featuring two public betting darlings figures to draw a ton of action, so let’s take a look at some need-to-know information ahead of it.

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The matchup

Here’s a quick trivia question: Can you name the NFL teams that have covered 10 consecutive games against the spread dating back to 2003? You can’t—because there are none. Only two teams since that season have covered nine in a row, and both teams failed to cover its next game. The Saints, a squad that has bulldozed opponents and the bank accounts of those bold enough to bet against them since Week 3, will attempt tonight to breakthrough and extend their ATS streak to double-digits.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys find themselves in unfamiliar territory as a 7-point home underdog. The last time Dallas was a touchdown or more underdog at home came back in Week 8 of the 2015 season when they hosted the Patriots. That one didn’t go so well for the home team, as the Cowboys were steamrolled in a 30-6 loss. In fact, this spot has historically been unkind to Dallas. The last four times the Cowboys were an underdog of seven or more at home they lost the game outright.

If Dallas is to reverse that trend, its defense, which is allowing a stingy 19.4 points per game, will need to slow down a Saints offense that has eclipsed 40 points on six different occasions and 30 points nine times through 11 games, so they’ll have a tall order in front of them tonight. Despite its stellar overall play, the Cowboys defense has allowed opposing offenses to complete 44% of third down conversions (29th in the league), while opposing quarterbacks have completed 69.1% of their pass attempts (28th). That’s a recipe for disaster against a Saints offense that is converting 47% of their third down opportunities (6th) and completing a league-best 76% of their pass attempts. Just how good has this team been? Relatively speaking, the Falcons did a respectable job keeping the Saints in check on Thanksgiving night…and still surrendered 31 points and, frankly, were never really in the game.

It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which the Cowboys hold the Saints under 30 points, so they will need a big night on offense. Ezekiel Elliott has been hot recently, rushing for a combined 394 yards over the past three weeks, but he faces a difficult test against a Saints defense allowing a league-best 73.2 yards per game on the ground. The Falcons didn’t even try to run the ball a week ago, totaling only 26 yards on 16 attempts. If Dallas is to hang around, Dak Prescott must make explosive plays in the passing game. The New Orleans defense is among the game’s worst in DVOA against both opponents’ No. 1 and No. 2 wide receivers, and it ranks 29th in DVOA against passes that travel 16 or more yards downfield. The addition of Amari Cooper gives Prescott a fighting chance to exploit this weakness, but he’s struggled thus far in 2018 on passes traveling at least 20 yards, completing only 36.4% of his attempts (26th in the NFL).

Dak Prescott can't miss opportunities like this against NO. pic.twitter.com/1aFhHYrz84

— John Owning (@JohnOwning) November 27, 2018

It is, however, worth noting that while those vulnerabilities exist in the secondary, the Saints have gotten much better play from their defense overall, particularly over the past three weeks in which it has surrendered only 38 total points.

The money

The Saints are commanding 68% of point-spread bets, but only 59% of the money, so there’s some big dollars on the Cowboys. Meanwhile, 78% of the action is on the over, but only 69% of the money. Despite the money backing the over, the game total has dropped from 53 down to 51.5 at many major books, including DraftKings and FanDuel. Fishy, fishy.

The trends

Everybody wants to bet on the Saints pinball offense. Explosive! Like a video game! While true, the over has hit in only 5 of 11 Saints games, while each of their last seven Thursday night games have stayed under the total.

The Saints are 5-0 against the spread away from home, winning by an average margin of 14 points per game. Even if you exclude their 51-14 massacre of the Bengals back in Week 10, they’re still winning by an average of eight points per game. The Saints are hot, too, totaling a +92 point-differential over the past three weeks. Here’s another trend backing New Orleans: the favorite has won each of the past eight Thursday night games between teams from the same conference.

As for the Cowboys, they have gone a respectable 10-8-1 ATS as a home underdog under Jason Garrett, but they have been a categorical disaster against elite teams during his tenure. Against opponents with a winning percentage between 80-100%, the Cowboys are 6-9-1 ATS, but they have been brutal at home, going 1-7 ATS against elite opponents.

Value

So where’s the value at tonight? In New Jersey, of course. [insert drum sound] As of 3:30 pm, those looking to take the underdog should head to SugarHouse Sportsbook where you can get Dallas at +7 (+100). Those backing the Saints can grab them at FanDuel -7 (-110). Totals bettors on the over should go SugarHouse, where they can get 51.5 (-107), while those on the under can get 52 with BetStars NJ.

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Also be sure to check out DraftKings’ special Odds Boosts tonight. Here’s the menu:

ODDS BOOSTS

Saints To Win By 14+ Points

Was: +200 Now: +240

Elliott & Kamara Combine For 2+ TDs

Was: -150 Now: -120

Brees Throws For 3+ TDs & Saints Win

Was: +130 Now: +160

Amari Cooper To Score First TD

Was: +1100 Now: +1300 pic.twitter.com/ZDEtprOeQF

— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) November 29, 2018

Over at BetStars, users can take advantage of a Saints Stars Stack and Odds Boost:

Prediction

I absolutely see the value in taking the improved Cowboys at home against a team that has to have a letdown at some point. After all, there’s a reason no team has covered 10 straight games in well over 15 years, but betting against New Orleans feels insane right now. Sean Payton, a former Cowboys assistant, is a master motivator, and the Saints can potentially clinch a division title this weekend and are still playing for the NFC’s top spot. Payton has done a great job of getting a team that could have been fat and happy to get up week after week, and something tells me this didn’t go unmentioned during team meetings this week:

DeMarcus Lawrence has some words about the Saints ahead of their Thursday Night matchup

pic.twitter.com/PrMjZxPpwv

— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) November 27, 2018

Truthfully, I’m not crazy about either side, nor do I feel strongly about the total. When you do the math, 52 points seems like a reachable total, but the trends, along with the fact that the total has dropped despite action on the over, suggest the under is the sharp play. Dallas also feels like the sharp play, too, but I don’t trust Jason Garrett or Dak Prescott, and I refuse to bet against the Saints right now. For these reasons, and although I’m typically hesitant about teasers, it feels like a good spot to grab 6 points and take the Saints to -1 and the total down to 45.5. And so that’s what I’m going to do.

Saints 34, Cowboys 27

The post Need to Know Betting Info for Saints-Cowboys appeared first on Crossing Broad.

Need to Know Betting Info for Saints-Cowboys published first on https://footballhighlightseurope.tumblr.com/

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danarglenn · 4 years

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Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy

These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment - some of the sectors that will recover very slowly.

----- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration ----- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers.

Click on graph for larger image. This data shows the seven day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Blue) and 2020 (Red). This data is as of August 30th. The seven day average is down 70% from last year. There had been a slow steady increase from the bottom, but air travel has mostly moved sideways recently. ----- Restaurants: OpenTable ----- The second graph shows the 7 day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities.

Thanks to OpenTable for providing this restaurant data: This data is updated through Aug 29, 2020. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year." Note that this data is for "only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market". Since some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown. The 7 day average for New York is still off 64% YoY, and down 34% in Florida. Dining is increasing again, probably mostly outdoor dining. ----- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -----

This data shows domestic box office for each week (red) and the maximum and minimum for the previous four years. Data is from BoxOfficeMojo through August 27th. Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released. Movie ticket sales have picked up over the last few weeks, and were over $7 million last week (compared to usually around $300 million per week). Most movie theaters are still closed, but a few seem to be reopening (probably with limited seating at first). ----- Hotel Occupancy: STR -----

This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. The red line is for 2020, dash light blue is 2019, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year probably since the Great Depression for hotels). This data is through August 22nd. COVID-19 crushed hotel occupancy, however the occupancy rate has increased in 17 of the last 19 weeks, and is currently down 30.3% year-over-year. Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change. The leisure travel season usually peaks at the beginning of August, and then the occupancy rate typically declines sharply in the Fall. With so many schools closed, the leisure travel season might have lasted longer than usual this year, but it is unlikely business travel will pickup significantly in the Fall. ----- Gasoline Consumption: Energy Information Administration -----

This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline consumption compared to the same week last year of . At one point, gasoline consumption was off almost 50% YoY. As of August 21st, gasoline consumption was only off about 8% YoY (about 92% of normal). Note: I know several people that have driven to vacation spots - or to visit family - and they usually would have flown. So this might be boosting gasoline consumption over the summer. ----- Transit: Apple Mobility ----- This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This is just a general guide - people that regularly commute probably don't ask for directions. There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. However the index is set "relative to its weekday-specific average over January–February", and is not seasonally adjusted, so we can't tell if an increase in mobility is due to recovery or just the normal increase in the Spring and Summer.

This data is through August 29th for the United States and several selected cities. The graph is the running 7 day average to remove the impact of weekends. IMPORTANT: All data is relative to January 13, 2020. This data is NOT Seasonally Adjusted. People walk and drive more when the weather is nice, so I'm just using the transit data. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is still only about 56% of the January level. It is at 48% in Los Angeles, and 53% in Houston. ----- New York City Subway Usage ----- Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR).

This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This data is through Friday, August 28th. Schneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources. He notes: "Data updates weekly from the MTA’s public turnstile data, usually on Saturday mornings" from Calculated Risk http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/08/seven-high-frequency-indicators-for.html

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howrealityruinedme · 7 years

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Christmas Break

This is going to be long so bare with me.

Friday, the 16th, I didn’t need to attend school, so I stayed home. I slept in. Once I found the energy to get ready, I did and I finished Christmas shopping. I remember spending my entire day out shopping. Once I finished, I went home and got high. That was the first time, I got high in roughly a month, so it was much needed. That was my sum of Friday nothing too great.

Saturday, the 17th, this was probably one of my worst nights of the year, but it was probably one of the best nights of the year as well. I don’t remember Saturday morning, but I remember getting ready for MJ’s birthday party. I left around 7:30 at night and head out. I remember the drive being so long, but I brought some patron with me. I stopped by a sonic near the hotel and poured the patron in my drink. Once I got inside, it was all boys and just Kaylee, Grayson and I. There were no signs of drinks or anything around. I remember Alicia and MJ walking in with pizza. All the girls that were there decided to play dirty jenga and of course I pulled the one that had me make out with someone. The girls chose Caden, so I walked up to him and kissed him then lingered around. I left him and went back to playing. The boys then took out drinks and more people started appearing. I don’t remember drinking too much, but after I went out to smoke with a couple of people, I don’t recall much of that night. I spent most of my night with Alicia and we both planned on rooming with MJ that night, but I woke up in my bed the next morning.

Sunday, the 18th, this was MJ’s birthday, but when I woke up, I recognized my surroundings too well. I was at home, in my bed. I felt fine and was questionable, so I went to my sister’s room, where she explained that she had to pick me up, because I got plastered and was shaking uncontrollably. I spent this day throwing up and regretting everything from the night before. I know I played dirty jenga when I wasn’t sober. I just have no idea what went on that night. Sunday sucked.

Monday, the 19th, this was the first time in a long time, that I rekindled my friendship with Alyssa. We just ended up going to the movies and watching Moana with my sister.

Tuesday, the 20th, Alyssa and I spent the morning in Dallas. We went to petland, where I fucking died, because all the dogs are just adorable. We went to steel city pops afterwards, because she's never had it. After SCP we went to go walk around downtown Dallas. We both had work in a couple hours so we headed back home to make some crepes. We both went to work and afterwards, I picked her up to spend the night and we spent the night drinking. I probably drank like three sips, but ended up smoking.

Wednesday, the 21st, I don’t remember how this day started, but I remember working all night and coming home to noise and walking in to about 15 people from Pei Wei. People were just sitting around and drinking when I got there. About 10 minutes in, Wesley and I went to go buy some cards. Once we got back home people were still drinking and see were getting ready to smoke. I joined outside to smoke and was literally high all night.

Thursday, the 22nd, I remember waking up to people still at my house, but they all left within an hour or two. My sister and I spent the day cleaning the house from any evidence. My oldest, bitchass sister showed up and all she could say was “this house smells like alcohol and sweat” and “you’re going to want to get candles” god she ruins everything. She eventually left and my sister and I picked everything up and got rid of any evidence. Afterwards, I remember going to MJ’s, because he got shoulder surgery again the day prior. I remember getting there and Stephen, Tyler and Lexi were already there, so I felt uncomfortable at first. I loosened up and became friends with Lexi. I only stayed for like 30 minutes, because I had to leave to go somewhere. I can’t remember where I went, but I came back about two hours later. It was just MJ and I for about 20 minutes, because Stephen was on his way back from work and Lexi and Tyler went to go get cookies. Later on Rain and Destany came over to MJ’s. Everyone left and it was just Lexi, Tyler and I remaining and we all went home around 1 or so.

Friday, the 23rd, This was the day I got my tattoo and my nipples pierced. Fuck this day was the worst day of break, because of the pain I was in. I was going to head over to MJ’s afterwards, but the pain was unbearable, so I went home and fell asleep. When I woke up I was still in awful pain, but went over to MJ’s for about an hour. He literally wanted me to be in pain because he kept hitting my boobs.

Saturday, the 24th, I worked in the morning and went home and fell asleep because I was still in pain from the piercings. Once my sister got off of work, we went to go shopping to eat stuff for Christmas. I feel like that is all we did that day, because after the grocery store, we went home and watched movies.

Sunday, the 25th, ITS FUCKING CHRISTMAS. it was kind of sad, because it was just my sister and I, but we made the best of it. We literally went to the movies to go watch collateral beauty, which was such a good movie. We went home and made dinner, then went to go visit my sisters deceased best friend at the cemetery. We ended our night by going to Main Event, because I had two fun cards. Afterwards we went home and watched movies did our gift exchange and made some hot chocolate.

Monday, the 26th, I worked in the morning and once I got off we were chilling with Priscilla and went to her mum’s restaurant. We went home and waited for Karla. We all started drinking a little bit, but I didn’t want to drink too much because I was planning on hanging out with MJ, but that didn't happen. Around 11:30 my oldest sister came and made the biggest scene because we wouldn't let her in. This was the day my sister and I knew we were screwed and would hear it from dad. So shoutout to my oldest sister for fucking ruining our lives. About two hours later when everything ended, we chilled for a bit and cleaned a tiny bit. Priscilla and I just ended up smoking where I literally passed out afterwards.

Tuesday, the 27th, us girls woke up and we found out that my oldest sister’s boyfriend gave Priscilla a flat tire, where she had to get new tires. While we waited for the tires we went to Dallas, to Petland. Once we head back I had to go straight to work. Once I got off work, I headed home and waited for my sister to get off. Once she got off we went to IHOP with Alfredo. We stayed there for about two hours and headed to our house, where he lingered for nearly an hour just talking. Once he left, my sister and I just went to bed.

Wednesday, the 28th, my sister and I started the day off by cleaning the ENTIRE house, because our parents returned that day. We spent about 3-4 hours cleaning literally everything. Afterwards, we got ready and visited her best friend again, because that marked 2 years since she passed away. We were at the cemetery with others for roughly 45 minutes. Afterwards we went to go get tacos again from Priscilla’s mum’s restaurant. We got it togo, because w told Alfredo we would go to his game. We made the last three minutes of his game, which thank god, because it was freezing and we were wearing no clothes. We ended the day by getting frozen yogurt. Once I got home, I hit Alyssa up for a late night drive, because they're a necessity. Once, I had to take her home, MJ invited me to Main Event, so I joined. I saw a couple friends there, and Whit personally invited me to her NYE party. Afterwards we went over to MJ’s, but no one stayed too long. I was the last one there with him, but had to leave because my parents were 25 minutes away from being home. I got home and got ready for bed and forced myself to sleep.

Thursday, the 29th, I stayed in bed all day with my sister, because we both woke up feeling absolutely awful. We both got up, because we had to get ready for work. We went to work. Once I got off of work, my sister and I went to Whataburger with the twins for about two hours and went home and slept.

Friday, the 30th, I dragged Alyssa to come to the mall with me to find an outfit fro NYE. We went to the Grapevine Mills mall (which I don’t like) to find thigh highs that Kylee said were cheap, but with my luck I didn’t find ones I liked. Once we left we went to go try a new boba, which was okay, not great, but not bad. I dropped her off and then I went home and took a nap. Later that night, I went to MJ’s, but there were a couple friends there, who I didn’t expect. More people started showing up and we just talked and played board games. I had to leave for awhile to go to IHOP. I went straight back to MJ’s and only three people remained. So MJ and I went to our every day position, literally. I’d lay on the far left of his bed and he’d be in the middle, slightly more towards me. We’d just be under a blanket and I would intertwine my legs with his and he would demand me to scratch his leg. This is literally how it went every single time I would come over. It was around 1:30 s I knew I had to go home.

Saturday, the 31st, my sister and I woke up and went to get our nails and eyebrows done. We just went home and chilled. I waited for my parents to leave so I could go to Whit’s. Once they left, I decided to start getting ready. Once I was ready I headed out, which was around 9:30 and I got to her place at 10:00. Once I got there, no one was really there except about 15 people people. It started off slow, but then a swarm of people came. Then Rain and I went to go buy some ping pong balls. When I got in the car, she told me she was on coke. We went to four places before finding the balls and heading back to Whitney’s. Once we got back it was about 11:20. I just stood by the table and watched people play BP and then MJ came behind me and just stood with me. Then something I died, when I saw was when I turned my head he was leaning on the counter and our faces were aligned. I’m just saying this nigga shouldve kissed me right then and there. He went to grab a chair for himself and i just sat with him. We were together the entire time, except when I went to the bathroom and got back. I had no clue where he went, but I just sat down in his seat and about five minutes later he came back and rested his arm on my head and told me to move and I could sit on his lap. 12:00 quickly approached, it was 11:55 and we all told Whit to turn on the TV for the countdown and ball drop. I remember seeing the time say 11:58 and Anna, Stephen’s girlfriend, said “so are y'all going to kiss for new years?” and MJ looked at me and said “you down?” and I said bet. There was less than a minute so we all rushed to the living room and MJ sat in a single couch and just told me to sit on his lap. At 12:00 we kissed, but it was so awkward and unenjoyful. I don't know, like it was unplanned and messy. Like we didn’t know what we were going to do and just wung it. Afterwards, I got up awkwardly and went to the kitchen to get a water. Once I was walking back I could hear Lexi talking to MJ and all I heard was her say something about me and MJ replied “idk it just happened.” I walked past them and sat down with Caden and Kendrick. Kendrick got up about a minute later to grab his bottle, and then Rodney tried squeezing in and told me to scoot over and so Caden and I were closer and Kendrick was hinting at us and I was like yikes no. I got up and Rain told me to go upstairs and grab her stuff with her. Her and I went up to Whit’s room and I did coke with her. Coke is actually kind of cool. It just gives you more energy and only lasts like 30 minutes. After doing it, I went back downstairs and sat back where I was and kendrick was next to me and then MJ squeezed next to Kendrick. Kendrick left and told us to hide his bottle and cigar so MJ and I squeezed next to each other. I put my legs on him like I always do and we were just chilling for a bit and I told him I did coke and he was worried for a split second and just said “You’re wild Yanely” we were just chilling on the couch and were almost holding hands, but seemed like neither one of us wanted to make the move. Our hands were just touching. I could feel the coke kick in and I was ready to leave because I felt energized. We all followed Julian to another party and I was walking out with MJ and we were totally flirting, like no way we weren’t. I departed to my car and MJ said come with us and I asked where and he said idk and I said I’ll go for a little bit but I’m driving my own car. I started heading to my car and then I hear MJ saying “hey guys, I’m going but I’m riding with Yanely.” and then he came towards my car and we followed them. The car ride I thought something would happen like a kiss or a conversation about what happened, but nope we just conversed casually the entire car ride. We pulled up to the house and it was fucking sketchy. All the lights were out but there was loud ass music. WE walked in and there were fucking sophomores. I had to go to the restroom, so Whitney and I went and once I got out, I saw someone walking towards me and just heard “C’mon we aren’t staying here, let’s go” and he grabbed me, but I knew it was MJ. We left and were heading to another party, but on our way it got busted, so I drove MJ home and went home myself. I think this was my favorite night of the break. But I do think I might’ve caught some feelings for MJ again, which I’m going to mask, because I don’t want to ruin our friendship.

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junker-town · 5 years

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Amari Cooper is exactly who the Cowboys hoped he’d be

The threat of Amari Cooper burning teams deep has helped the Cowboys offense find its identity again.

The Dallas Cowboys took a huge risk by trading a first-round pick for Amari Cooper, and the immediate return didn’t look great. After about two weeks of practicing with the team, Cooper made his Cowboys debut in Week 9 with five receptions for 58 yards and a touchdown.

It was a decent enough showing for Cooper, but the Cowboys offense as a whole looked as bad as ever. The Titans cruised to a 28-14 win to drop Dallas to 3-5, and the loss of a top draft pick only to get more of the same looked regrettable.

It actually looked like a winning trade for Jon Gruden — one of the only wins for Gruden since he was hired as the Raiders head coach in January.

Since then, the Cowboys have rattled off three consecutive wins, the offense has finally found a rhythm, and Dallas is sitting atop the NFC East.

On Thanksgiving, Cooper showed out. He caught eight passes for 180 yards and two touchdowns — including a 90-yard explosion straight through the Washington secondary.

Amari Cooper on this 90-yard TD: “I get that ball one out of 10 times (on that play). It’s not really the first read. It’s really just basically a clear-out route, but the look was perfect for me to get it. And I was expecting it.” pic.twitter.com/UeTOP2FpFc

— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) November 24, 2018

It was the longest catch of his career so far.

With Cooper producing, the Cowboys scored more than 21 points in three consecutive games all season.

Dallas traded for Cooper because the team thought he’d transform the offense. So far, it looks like an intuitive move. Let’s review:

Explosiveness: 8.9

Through 12 weeks, the Cowboys are 28th in pass plays for 20 yards or more. In seven games without Cooper, Dallas had 16 of those plays. In the four games since trading for Cooper, the Cowboys have 12.

Against Washington alone, Cooper had touchdown receptions of 40 and 90 yards.

That’s a big difference for a Cowboys offense that has relied on Ezekiel Elliott and just about nobody else to produce big plays in the last three seasons.

It’s also been a revelation for Cooper.

The 2015 first-round pick quickly emerged as one of the most dangerous, young deep threats in the NFL as a rookie with six receptions for more than 40 yards. That number dropped to just two in 2016 and three in 2017. In his first six games of 2018 while with the Raiders, he had zero.

It’s helped that the Cowboys have used him like the dangerous game-breaker that he was billed to be as a draft prospect.

Amari Cooper has averaged 26.0 distance yards per route in four games with the @dallascowboys, significantly higher than each of the past three seasons with the Raiders. DAL (2018): +13.1% Catch Rate Above Expectation OAK (2016-18): -1.6% Catch Rate Below Expectation pic.twitter.com/aE3E4niB6J

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 27, 2018

The Cowboys still aren’t a team that’s likely to have a shootout that looks like anything like the outrageous Rams-Chiefs duel in Week 11. They lean on a powerful rushing attack and sound defense to get the job done. But the threat of Cooper busting teams deep has made the offense more threatening, and opened things up for what it does best.

Efficiency: 9.5

Cooper is Ezekiel Elliott’s new best friend.

In the last three weeks, Elliott has 394 rushing yards, 137 receiving yards, and four touchdowns. It’s his first streak of three straight games over 120 rushing yards since October of his rookie year.

That’s — at least, in part — a consequence of Cooper’s arrival.

“You’re getting a guy or half a guy out of the box, and it’s just one less guy to worry about,” Elliott said earlier this month, via Sports Illustrated. “It seems like [Cooper] was kind of the missing piece, because when he got here the offense started rolling.”

Elliott has been difficult to stop even if a defense stacks eight players near the line of scrimmage:

No running back has been more effective against 8+ defenders in the box than Ezekiel Elliott since 2016.@EzekielElliott and the @dallascowboys will face an Eagles defense allowing 2.6 YPC against runs when stacking 8+ defenders in the box this season.#DALvsPHI #DallasCowboys pic.twitter.com/iTtmXaN1Dq

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 12, 2018

Now defenses are being forced to choose between leaving Cooper one-on-one against a cornerback, or opening up more running room for Elliott.

That’s made the Cowboys offense smooth and efficient. They haven’t turned the ball over since Week 9, and Dak Prescott has completed over two-thirds of his passes in four straight games. He didn’t accomplish that once in the seven games the Cowboys played without Cooper.

Prescott was saddled by a subpar receiving corps that wasn’t finding production out of anyone but slot receiver Cole Beasley. Now, receivers like Allen Hurns and Michael Gallup can settle into more appropriate roles as complementary receivers rather than featured ones.

The Cowboys are at their best when they’re feeding Elliott, and Prescott is doing enough to move the chains. As long as they’re dominating time of possession, the Cowboys are in good shape. Cooper has helped them lean into that identity.

Value: 8.0

There are two ways to evaluate the value of the Cowboys’ trade for Cooper:

Was a first-round pick too much to give up to get him?

Will he prove more valuable than a first-round pick?

It’s hard to give the Cowboys a good grade on the first question. While he’s been a superb addition, Cooper came to Dallas:

After averaging 3.4 receptions per game in 2017.

With a $13.924 cap hit on the way in the final year of his contract in 2019.

As one of the dropsiest receivers in the NFL.

Only two receivers last year had drop rates over 12%: Dez Bryant and Amari Cooper.

— Kevin Clark (@bykevinclark) October 22, 2018

His original draft position and exciting rookie year suggested he could be worth a first-round pick. Not much else did.

It meant the Cowboys were criticized by many for the deal, and it made other trades around the NFL more difficult to broker:

Teams making ton of calls today but asking prices don’t seem to be realistic at this point on many of the players called about. Teams saw Amari Cooper go for a 1 and it’s over-inflated other asks

— Jay Glazer (@JayGlazer) October 30, 2018

A silver lining is that the Cowboys were below .500 at the time of the trade — meaning there was a chance they gave up a top-10 pick for Cooper. Now, Dallas is in good shape to earn a postseason berth and guarantee that pick will be outside the top 20.

If the Cowboys gave up too much for Cooper when he was really worth — say — a second-round pick and change, it can’t be undone. What can be evaluated now is whether or not Cooper has performed like a player worth the trade.

With games against the Saints, Eagles, and Colts in the next three weeks, we’ll see if Cooper has changed the Cowboys offense enough to make it an actual playoff contender. So far, the only win Dallas has against a team with a winning record was its Thanksgiving victory over Washington.

But it sure looks like Cooper is every bit the game changer the Cowboys hoped he’d be when they made the trade.

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