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hollowwhisperings · 10 months

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Blackfyre Conquest: An Autumn King

i've struggled to find any Meta on how Young Griff's conquest will go, politically & logistically, that don't immediately interrupt themselves with "...but then Dany will show up with Dragons".

A lot of fans are very pro-Targaryen and pro-Conquest: a lot of Westeros would probably be on board too, though for less romantic reasons. No one "loves" the commander of a foreign army & Ned successfully rallied a Rebellion with very good reasons. The Targaryens were never entirely welcome in Westeros but the War of the Five Kings certainly made a "return to stability" with a Targ King an easier sell than it would have been earlier in the series. That this Targ King is non-incestuous, seemingly sane, has a sizeable Army, has multiple houses already sworn to him... and seems to be an Actual Politician? The Lords might frown at exactly "how" legitimate their King really is but, overall, "Aegon VI" would be vastly preferable to who Westeros has currently:

1) an increasingly unpopular Queen-Regent whose family Did The Red Wedding & whose claim rests on a toddler-king of Dubious Parentage.

2) a King who's lost his Lands to the foreign invader, has a Pet Witch (called his "true" queen) who burns people alive, has converted to a Foreign Religion (& burned religious sites), is a rumoured Kinslayer, and was Never Very Popular in the first place (Stannis doesn't take bribes, keeps insisting his disabled daughter is his Heir, went to help the Night's Watch for Some Reason, wasn't as fun as his brothers, makes poor conversation at parties, etc) .

3) Euron Greyjoy.

4) a theoretical infant child of King Robb of the North & Trident... and the Treacherous Jeyne Westerling whom he Lost a war over.

5) Robb's legal heir as per his last Will, his "brother" Jon whom he legitimised as "Stark" but is currently busy being the 998th Lord Commander of the Night's Watch (it is unlikely that Jon's getting murdered by his men would be Advertised to the Realm & though Jon is almost certainly going to pull a Dany in WoW, he is currently a Ghost).

6) the allegedly sole surviving non-bastard Stark, Prince Rickon, who's spent the past few [books] entirely raised by [Freefolk] & is a toddler.

7) Some Targaryen Girl in Essos, last seen while... on fire & being abductes by her own dragon, apparently.

While most Lords will see Aegon's commanding the Golden Company as a Pretty Obvious allusion to his not actually being the miraculously surviving son of Prince Rhaegar Targaryen & Princess Elia Martell. The "truth" of Young Griff's identity is pretty irrelevant to his successfully conquering Westeros (which seems very likely, give or take a Kingdom). Robert Baratheon's kingship was won by conquest: his grandmother being a Targaryen princess was an afterthought, an extra touch of "legitimacy". Tommen's claim to the Iron Throne is through his legal status as King Robert's surviving Heir. Stannis's claim is through the illegitimacy of Joffrey & Tommen's claims making him Robert's heir instead.

Aegon's claim to the Iron Throne is not actually his alleged parentage: it's through Conquest (the same would be true for Dany, Euron and any Heir of King Robb). Most Lords would see the Golden Company, famously founded to make a Blackfyre king, and conclude that Aegon is a Blackfyre Pretender: this is, in the short-term, irrelevant.

Some might rejoice at the alleged survival of one of Prince Rhaegar or Princess Elia's children: Targaryen Loyalists, the Dornish, smallfolk out of the loop on why there was a Rebellion. Ned Stark Loyalists would know Ned mourned for Princess Elia & her children, that Robert became King because Ned wasn't interested & be more concerned about Winter than how recently incestuous the latest Southron King's family tree may be.

As far as most of Westeros is aware [going into Winds], its Key Requirements for a Monarch are: being Alive & (ideally) Sane, being Old Enough to reign unsupervised (15 at minimum), having a loyal Army (see: Euronpocalypse, the Red Wedding, the lawlessness of the Riverlands), being Male, not being the immediate product of incest (Tommen aside, Prince Rhaegar only had 2 great-grandparents), not being a blasphemous arsonist, & not being in debt to the Iron Bank.

Robb Loyalists, those still surviving, would Wisely stand back and allow the Golden Company to deal with the Bolton-Lannister-Frey alliance: even if Jeyne Westerling is found alive & with an infant son, few would accept her and most would be unwilling to replace one child monarch with another (that applies to Rickon too). Northerners are proud but, as one of those Dead Starks might say, Winter is Coming.

The Wars over the series have made the southern land route impassable: the Twins are held by the treacherous Freys, the Riverlands are a lawless hellscape, King's Landing is run by Lannisters & Tyrells, and the Reach is itself "Tyrell Territory". With such a dangerous land route, the North relies on itself & seatrade. While the North does have eastern ports that allow trade with the Vale, the Vale itself is currently held by Petyr Baelish, publically aligned with the Lannister Regime. The North's primary port, White Harbour (held by Lord Wyman Manderly, known Stark Loyalist) is on its western coast, along the Narrow Sea. Euron & rogue Ironborn aside, Aegon's Armies have already seized Storm's End after coming across said sea. Having already seized Storm's End and with Aurane Waters' having Absconded with the Crown's Fleet that would guard the Blackwater... The Golden Company can comfortably blockade all traffic from Westeros to Essos (give or take a Lys). Even assuming Aurane Waters isn't in cahoots with Team Aegon (he's a Velaryon bastard), he took the Crown's fleet to the Stepstones and thus holds control over naval passage between the eastern & western coasts of Westeros (& to Dorne).

So, unless Sansa usurps control of the Vale from Baelish within the first third of Winds; unless Prince Doran or seadragons take out Aurane Waters' pirate fleet; unless the Golden Company's AND Euron's respective fleets get taken out without ANOTHER navy taking their place... Westeros really, really needs Aegon to successfully conquer Westeros if only to quickly reestablish vital trade routes for Winter.

Speaking of Euron's fleet and Trouble at Oldtown... there is Trouble At Oldtown and no one is equipped to keep it contained: on land, the sons of Lord Hightower have been taking the Ironborn threat seriously (with Lord Hightower seemingly having Anticipated the supernatural threat Euron seeks to invoke though how successful his & his daughter's Efforts may be remains Unknown); at sea, the Redwyne Fleet is Worried & very probably in Cahoots with Aegon. It will be a Trip, going back to sea from the Stormlands & then South to Oldtown, but a Redwyne-Velaryon-Blackfyre Naval Alliance is the Best and Geographically Closest forces available to Oldtown.

There are a few characters who've been sent to seek aid from Essos, given the Ironborn threat & the general political instability: Prince Quentyn was one (RIP) and Lord Hightower's youngest son, Ser Humfrey, is another. If the Hightowers weren't Team Aegon before, they soon will be.

The Reach is an increasingly vital kingdom to the survival of Westeros: with the Riverlands in the state it is & with the ongoing socio-economic fallout of Dany's very sudden conquests of half the Free Cities, The Reach is the most reliable source of food for the entire continent. That's part of why the impending Euronpocalypse is so Worrying to those otherwise removed from the Oldtown plotlines: Oldtown is one of the most important ports of Westeros, exporting grain from the Reach & importing goods from Essos.

Oldtown is also the Headquarters for the Citadel, where maesters are trained to: manage rookeries, the interkingdom communication system; learn histories, including those of long Winters past & who survived to give tips on Resource Management; and study medicine (to varying degrees of competency but Still).

The maesters are imperfect, often outright incompetent (as much by accident as by any potential Conspiracy): they're still the ones in control of the [telegram] network, the meteorologists, the ones able to not only access the historic archives but how to read them & any knowledge therein. It is certainly more helpful to have scholars than to not have scholars, especially with Winter nearing and many surviving Lordlings having known only Summer (& never educated on "How To Lord" due to how far down the line of succession they were before the Wars).

For those in Westeros who hold to the Faith of the Seven, Trouble At Oldtown would be an apocalypse all of its own: Oldtown is the centre of their Faith and its destruction would greatly demoralize persons of all stations, especially with increased Magical Activity and rumours of [fire zombies, ice zombies, wolf zombies, dragons].

Team Aegon seems the most likely to "contain" the Euronpocalypse, having both method (naval power) & means (the Golden Company, 4 kingdoms' worth of vassal lords) to do so. Aegon's also one of the few "primary" characters who would even know that there IS a Euronpocalpse: Team Aegon, Prince Doran, Queen Cersei, Lady Olenna, Lord Manderly, Asha's faction of Ironborn, the Reacherlords, the Iron Bank, & (probably?) Brynden Rivers are the only ones who could plausibly know of a Euron Threat, let alone organize a Timely Response to it. Regardless of how successful said Response may be, Team Aegon helping with Oldtown smooths the way for his becoming recognised as a Legitimate Leader for Westeros.

I'm fairly certain that Team Aegon will conquer (most of) Westeros over the course of Winds, I doubt he'll have the time to be crowned King or even spend time on a throne: he'll be too busy.

Aegon's Conquest being successful is Pretty Dang Important to the greater scheme of things: it will introduce Key Characters to each other (Arianne & Dorne, Sam & thus the NW, "Alayne" through Baelish, Team Oathkeeper through Jaime's controlling the Crown's armies); restore supply routes; "consolidate" power to enable discussion of Continental Threats long neglected (through both Regional & Interpersonal Conflicts). Aegon's Conquest would act as a kind of "triage" for Westeros, a quick means of uniting different groups (for & against him) and he won't actually need to sit the Iron Throne to do it. It is most likely that, after securing the Reach & Stormlands, Aegon will find that the Frey Civil War had "taken care of" the North & the Riverlands, with Robb Loyalists willing to Play Nice but (understandably, thinketh Aegon) wary of bending any knees. Dorne, regardless of Prince Doran's personal opinion on Aegon's identity, would act "compliant" due to Arianne's involvement & the Rocky Dornish having been in Cahoots with the Blackfyre Regime from the get go. Even a false Aegon would be preferable to a Lannister, as far as the North & Dorne are concerned. The Ironborn post-Euronpocalypse would go back to battling themselves internally, likely while facing heavy [sanctions]: they'd be too busy licking their wounds to be much of a threat to anyone.

That leaves three kingdoms: the Westerlands, cornered at all sides & bereft of much of its Leadership through Wars & the Frey Civil War; the Crownlands, King's Landing likely being besieged for Cersei to later blow up; and The Vale.

Who runs the Vale? The worst, most consistently dangerous backstabber of them all: Lord Petyr Baelish. It will probably be Baelish who undoes all that triage work Team Aegon started, likely via assassinating the kid or "exposing" him to the Right Wrong Crowd (whether Petyr has actual knowledge or evidence against Aegon is irrelevant: this is not his first Smear Campaign).

Assuming it hasn't happened already (in great tonal dissonance with the Euronpocalypse), Little Lord Robert Arryn would get his Tourney at the Gates of the Moon just in time for Aegon to secure his "final" kingdom.

The Frey Civil War would have affected the Vale just as it affected the rest of Westeros (Dorne excluded) but, from the clues I've found in the Vale & Darry-branches of Freys, it's likely that the Vale Freys will have fared better than every other branch of their extensive family tree, likely due to their joining the Aegon Bandwagon prior to Lord Walder's death.

Others have drawn parallels between what we know of "Alayne's'" Tourney and the historic Tourney of Ashford Meadow: essentially, the Tourney is implicitly tied to the themes & character arcs of both Sansa Stark (in the role of "Lord Ashford's 13 year old daughter", defending Queen of Love & Beauty) and Brienne of Tarth (in the role of her ancestor, Duncan the Tall: knightly but never technically Knighted underdog). The Ashford Tourney is best remembered for being the Introduction of Ser Duncan the Tall, a Sudden Trial of Seven, a quietly averted Blackfyre Rebellion, and the tragic death of the greatly beloved Crown Prince Baelon "Breakspear" (& Some Guy from House Hardyng).

Yeah. Dany doesn't even need to leave Essos: Aegon's doom will come courtesy of Thematic Parallels and Foreshadowing.

Prince Baelon "Breakspear" was a living representation of a Westeros at peace: he was the product of one of two political marriages that peacibly joined Dorne to the Seven Kingdoms (the Second Marriage featured one of those Princesses Daenerys); he was a Competent ruler, becoming his Father's Hand at age 26; his nickname was gained when he bested Ser Daemon Blackfyre (yes, THAT Blackfyre) at a tourney (the Wedding Tourney of his Aunt Daenerys); he had two adult sons, presumably with a wife (the sons are the only proof of her existence); and one of Baelon's sons was healthy enough to score 7 victories at the Ashford Tourney!

Which he. Uh. Very unexpectedly died at. Baelon, that is. The Crown Prince. The People's Prince. The Golden Child who promised a Peaceful & Prosperous Future. The son of a Targaryen prince & a Martell mother. A character who Very Strongly Reminds One Of Young Griff, the hopeful Aegon VI.

Aegon is likely to attend the Vale Tourney in order to diplomatically add the Vale to his collection of Kingdoms: Baelish is likely to trade [Sansa]'s betrothal with Harry the Heir for the Shinier Prince Aegon (whether he dissolves the existing betrothal via Having Harry Killed By Tourney or by outing Alayne as Sansa "Key to the North" Stark-Lannister, who was, btw, Spared the marriage bed bc Child Bride so Totally Eligible my dude just Sign Here).

Then Brienne will show up, probably with Jaime, and Some Kerfuffle will Ensue (if only because Sansa & Brienne are Alleged Kingslayers) that leads to Robert Arryn's Tourney becoming Brienne's Trial of Seven for Sansa's Innocence, just as Ser Dunk's defense of the (common) maiden Tanselle so changed the Ashford Tourney.

There is a Rather Formidable enemy of Young Griff whom I have only hinted at: allow me to combine the Clues.

There exists in the ASOIAF series a Certain Character who Knows More than they Should, who has an implied past connection with a young Euron Greyjoy, who is infamously opposed to Blackfyres, who was present for the Ashford Tourney, whose Past & Present can connect just about every active plotline in the series: a disappeared Lord Commander of the Night's Watch, a Hand to two Targaryen Kings & the Master of Whispers to more (with his "thousand eyes and one"), one of the three Great Bastards born to Lady Melissa Blackwood by King Aegon IV, and current tree-wizard mentor to an entirely separate Kingly-coded character.

Brynden Rivers.

If Aegon survives Euron, Cersei, Jaime, AND Baelish? He certainly won't survive Brynden. Whatever Brynden may be right now (tree abomination, Old God Hivemind, puppet king to Feyfolk, Bran Stark's lunch, the distant Blackwood cousin of every surviving Stark), there is no reason to believe Brynden would allow a Blackfyre to go unchallenged, especially in the guise of a "true" Targaryen.

(not that i believe Brynden hopes for a Targaryen Restoration via Dany or Jon: it very much appears that Brynden & the Singers are grooming Bran Stark for kingship, though where & who exactly they expect him to rule is still Unclear)

I hope to do more exploration into what Aegon [Blackfyre]'s Conquest might look like, cobbling together clues from Quentyn's Doomed Quest and Queen Marge's Court (as "microcosm' to the Reach in macrocosm) and historically Targaryen/Blackfyre loyalist Houses. I'm fairly certain I can figure out how the Aegon Conquest will play into the resolutions of the Frey Civil War, (some) Winterfell Conspiracies, the specifics of the Euronpocalypse, & my "Dornish Spring" Theory as well. I'm much less certain on how Stannis would fare against Aegon: would he demand Legitimacy? would he sic Melissandre on him? would Stannis Get Over Himself in service to the Looming Winter? would he even have a leg to stand on the matter?

And would Aegon survive long enough to meet Daenerys, let alone Argue Legitimacy with her? (They'd both be rulers by conquest, not inheritance & it's not like Dany has any backing for her identity beyond "I look traditionally Valyrian" and "these are some dragons i hatched from stone mid-resurrection". The layyer it should be noted, is considered a Death Magic-induced Miracle, not some Secret Targaryen Blood Limit: it's Unique to Daenerys Stormborn, not to "House Targaryen")

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