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#i made liberty spikes an option right?! i must have...
signalhill-if · 1 year
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Honestly, my MC is just a more genderqueer distillers era Brody Dalle u_u
I think you might mean this
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But I really hope you mean this
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kinkyacademia · 5 years
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*Puts down Menu* I'd like some of the Dragon Overhaul please
i think the phrasing was a joke, but pfft… I don’t know. I’m taking this because you said please~ so your manners are skimming the surface, but Kai is honestly such a thirst quencher.A/N OH THANK THE GODS ALMIGHTY, I ACTUALLY FINISHED THIS. Seriously, I never thought the day would come. My eyes are watering, I have other essays due, but damn if this isn’t something I’m proud of. Lemon!!!
-Mod Pasta🍜🍝
At first, it started with you picking the winter blossoms from the banks of his river, and soon it grew into a game; how long could you pick flowers from the dragon’s territory before he showed up and chased you off.
The game was immensely risky, and you’ve burnt quite a lot of your clothes doing it, but if you were to be honest with yourself, the flowers were the best in the country. Besides, you liked the rush. There would either be a growing swishing noise that eventually got close enough to blow sticks in your face and alert you of how close he was, or the breaking of branches as he ran towards you could tick you off that he wasn’t particularly fond of your presence this time around.
This went on for an entire year. Each season brought new ingredients to your healing shop on the edge of town, and with this new supply, business was better than ever. Your eldest brother technically owned the place, but he let you do the work so that you wouldn’t get married just yet. It was his own way of repaying you for your services. Your mother had founded the practice when she was just a kid, travelling for decades to gain knowledge of remedies and writing them down as she went along. She settled in this town, and when she died, she showed you her personal collection of books. One mentioned not to go towards the mountain for a specific flower bulb that could cure the common cold, and instead to ask her friend for a small shipment.
You were stubborn, and instead of listening, you found yourself in a long game of cat and mouse with the nearest dragon. He wasn’t very big for his kind, but he made up for it with intimidation. His glowing orange eyes would bear into you ferociously, and the spikes along his back got seemingly longer and sharper every time you witnessed them. For some odd reason, though, he let you live. Perhaps he didn’t care for the flowers, or maybe he liked seeing you run off looking like an obsessive fool, but you hadn’t gotten seriously injured from your secret endeavors yet.
Until today-well, you weren’t necessarily “injured.” It was more like you couldn’t leave.
He wouldn’t let you. Every time you tried to get back home after he appeared behind you to block off your path, he would snarl menacingly. You ended up with your arms crossed, about a mile into his territory and absolutely no idea how to sate the beast. He was laying across from you, rubbing his muzzle against a rock and slowly carving into it. You glared daggers at him, muttering little obscenities such as, “You are a bloody nightmare.”
You pushed your choppy, short (H/C) hair back, waiting for him to give you any sign that he was paying attention. You should have been afraid, but if he wanted to kill you, he would have done it when he first met you. When he seemed to settle down for the hundredth time, you pushed yourself up slowly and started walking away from him, deeper into his territory. Your logic was that you could just get to the other side of it and take the main roads back to your village. It was your best option.
You walked for hours, many, and the sun even started to set. You knew the dangers of the forest at night, and although most of them were fake, you grabbed a sharp stick for comfort and continued on. Stopping would only allow him time to wake up, smell you, and head after you if he so pleased. You hoped he didn’t. You should have stopped picking the flowers a long time ago, and now you were stuck with the newly obsessed reptile.
Dirt got into your leather boots, and leaves stuck to the bottom of them. Your arms were littered with scratches from passing bushes and low hanging tree branches. As the sun peeked out, you sighed in relief, being able to see exactly how far you had come. You panted with the effort it took to keep going without stopping for water or food, you wouldn’t let yourself believe that your situation was that desperate. You trucked on, your boots becoming stuck to your legs. About mid-day, you spotted something shiny in the corner of your eye. Upon turning your head to look, it was obscured, but you did see the gravel road that it was near. Your eyes lit up, and you quickly headed that way.
As you neared it, you quite quickly saw the problem; the shiny thing was the dragon, and he was laying on the road. You swallowed hard, sighing and gritting your teeth. He was asleep, breathing quite slowly, so you decided to walk a little farther down the road and perhaps get to the other side that way. That must be the edge of his territory.
If only you had given up then and realized how well he could predict where you would go, you would have done it earlier. Every time you approached the road, he was sitting up at attention, looking around for you. He wasn’t looking, you realized, just teasing. You eventually approached him, cheeks flushed with anger as you gripped your meagre stick, “Dragon, what in Gods’ name do you desire?”
Much to your surprise, the dragon’s eyes flitted to you, and his long, large, plated neck squeaked as metal met and bent metal, and his neck dropped down to your level. Once he was at eye level, you realized that if you curled up tight enough, you would fit one of his sockets. He cocked his head nearly 180 degrees, and when he opened his mouth, you nearly vomited from the smell of pure copper and sulphur. What happened next nearly made you faint as well; he spoke.
“To break you, little human,” his voice was comically deep, held an unknown accent, and his words didn’t quite make perfect sense. It was also crackly, as if he hadn’t spoken in years. You gaped, pulling your stick to your chest.
“Y-You can sp?… why did you not say that earlier? I walked all this way, reptile,” you couldn’t bring yourself to scowl at such a creature. His mouth stretched, and you swore he was smiling at your anger.
“To show you how helpless you are now to me,” he had to correct himself once on what he was saying, but your breath hitched when you understood; he wasn’t kidding. He wanted to break you, something about you, and he was going to get what he wanted.
“What do you want to… uh, break?” Your voice fell into a whisper, and the dragon’s vocal chords hummed in a loud, reptilian chorus.
“Your… spirit. You will bow to me, I will…” his pupils closed in on themselves, becoming even thinner slits, “Own you.”
“I’d rather keel over and die, Dragon,” it took you a second to think of how you should respond, but when you did, you said it with confidence. He pulled his head back up to where he was towering over you. He wouldn’t speak, and continued to watch you as you shouted and tried to escape. You even went as far as to ignore his growling when you would overstep his territory, and his long, spiked tail came around to trap you against himself. Now you were leaning on the hunk of metal, arms crossed and seething.
This wasn’t going to end well.
-
A full month passed. You knew your brother’s shop was probably ruined, you presumed dead, and you could do nothing about it. The dragon, as you now knew as Overhaul, had shown you a small cave beside his own larger one that you were allowed to live in. You had to catch your own food when he didn’t bring you dead animals to cook. You had asked him to start your fires, but he refused, watched you in amusement as you used your minimal magical abilities to create a simple spark. Having made potions for so long, you had to know how to make the process go by faster, even by a little.
You also had a bed of dried leaves and tall grass. His own bed was a pile of melted gold and other metals and jewels, as you learned the day he showed you around. You also learned you weren’t allowed in his “den,” because you had just wandered in to ask a question when you were shooed out by a small shot of fire that caught your hair and caused you to cut it even shorter. He had watched you do it, fascinated by how much you payed attention to how you looked.
You would throw insults at him at random, and he would growl at you when you did it. If you actually did something to defy him, he would punish you by refusing you let you leave your den for however long he announced. Once you had set fire to his forest, so he didn’t let you eat for two days. You had to get used to letting him control your life, but you hated how his statement of “breaking your spirit” was slowly falling into place.
He wasn’t lying, it was weighing on you. Sometimes you thought it might just be easier to do what he says and hope for the best, but your pride wouldn’t let you.
So you ended up sitting in front of his cave, legs and arms crossed, looking inside. If he wanted you gone, he would just throw fire at you, right? You would take it. Burning you to a crisp would only hurt him.
“Go back,” His rough voice came from deep inside the black depths, but you did not listen. After about a minute, a growl resonated out, and his head stuck out of the darkness, peering down at you, “You dare defy me, human?”
“I have a name, and I have told you many times before. It is (L/N) (F/N), and if I must live here with you, then I expect you to learn who I am,” You snapped, and there was a clanking of metallic scales that alerted you to his anger.
“(L/N) (F/N),” His head dropped to your level, mere inches away. The smell nearly made you throw up, and as your eyes watered, you remained seated, “Your spirit is quite strong. I despise that,” He scoffed, his multi-lidded eyes studying you, making him seem cross-eyed.
You took the liberty of standing up and addressing him with the strongest voice you could muster, “You cannot break the will of a river, Overhaul.”
“I will.”
-
Alright, you were damn sure that there was only one dragon there last night. Still, to your surprise, Overhaul was out of his nest and speaking a barbaric language of which you could not understand with another smaller dragon. This one’s scales resembled lizard’s scales, with his two sides having a row of arrows that remained attached to him and floating, pointed behind him. He was sleeker, his tail curled around one of his hind legs and neck much longer than Overhaul’s.
As you watched them, they would occasionally glance at you. You tried to scoot away to grab some water, but a small growl from your owner had you back at the cave’s entrance. The other dragon purred at that. Great… they must be talking about you.
They took hours, and ended up laying down with their tails towards you. As it reached mid-day, you had nearly fallen back into a sun-baked sleep when the other dragon jumped up, barking at Overhaul. Overhaul roared back, deep and short. The other repeated his bark, shaking his head and taking a step closer to you. You scrambled up, and Overhaul did as well, stepping in front of you and blocking you off from the other.
They threw a couple more words out at each other before the smaller one shot a ball of flame at Overhaul! He blocked it with his large tail, then send a stream of concentrated flame back at him. The other dragon reared back, ready to shoot once more, before decided against it and falling back to his feet. He spread his wings, and Overhaul spread a single one over you. At this point, you took it; he was protecting you.
The smaller dragon said a couple more things, then switched to shaky English. His voice was surprisingly smooth, and held a whimsical undertone, “Maybe next time, Kai. You’re much too busy with that thing.”
-
After that, Overhaul wrapped himself around you in a loose circle and explained in short what had happened. He usually kept his sentences short and sweet, but for some reason, this day he tried to keep an entire conversation going despite his rudeness.
“He was here to present himself.”
“Present? Is that similar to a competition?” You inquired, now sitting back down and against his body. The dragon blinked, then tried to imitate how you shook your head no.
“He wished to mate,” You spluttered - mate? This dragon was capable of love? Obviously he wasn’t, the guy left furious!
“That’s strange, why did you not send him off at once?” Your eyebrows furrowed, and you leaned closer to his muzzle in attention.
“We are still… “friends,” as you may say, but I do not need him this season,” He closed his eyes, and you tensed up. That meant that he was capable of love at some point, or that other dragon really loved being hated.
“Is it because I am here? I can finally leave, if that pleases you,” You laughed, and his growl shut you up.
“No, you will not leave, flower picker (L/N),” The circle you were in tightened, and you nodded furiously.
“Alright, alright!” You paused, “You say, Overhaul, he called you Kai,” You mused, and he made a high pitched groan, unfurling himself from around you.
“Pick flowers, damned human,” And you were off at his words, for repercussions would occur if you were not.
You visited the place you used to pick flowers all those months ago, but the patches were gone. Not only were they gone, the ground was rooted. You swallowed hard, following the edge of his forest around to another side where you could grab some tea leaves. The chill of the morning set in without the constant beating of sun, and you made quick work before also taking a bucket of water back with you.
Upon returning, you saw Overhaul still at the front of the caves. He was lying asleep in front of his own. You set your leaves and water down, not caring to be gentle - he sure was not. You went and grabbed the proper material to make tea, then set the sticks on fire as the sun dipped below the clouds.
The smell of smoke must have woken him up, because his tightly wound ball uncurled itself, and his snake-like head raised up to look down at what you were doing.
You continued, not paying him any mind. He watched your actions, simple yet precise. Once the water was hot enough, you dropped the fresh leaves in, and the aroma became nostalgic and soft. You glanced up at the beast, and his eyes slowly met your own. They were orange, pupils the shape of ovals, and bore into you. You sighed, shaking your head and looking back at the boiling water, “We could live in harmony, Overhaul. I would be alright just being here, not having my sanity whittled down every day.”
He nodded, or more his head bobbed up and down, and you had to stifle a chuckle, “I would not mind it, but you must understand that I own you,” He lowered his head to your level once more, “Look at me when I speak, (L/N),” Without a second thought, you did so, eyes sombre and shoulders down, “You are mine, human, with no doubt.”
You sighed, gritting your teeth, but your anger only brought memory of his own. You backed down, nodding slowly.
He did not respond. Instead, he looked back at the tea, and you forced a smile as you did the same. You got up to go grab some cups from your cave, but a small grunt from him stopped you. You glanced at him, and he shook his head, “Wait.”
And that’s when your world flipped upside down for the second time. The dragon began to shrink, and his scale plates melded into one another while his neck shortened. As he did this, he jumped onto his hind legs, and his colour began to change from silver and brown to a sun kissed tan. His clawed paws, now the size of a mere dinner plates, reached up to his head and rubbed it, short brown hair sprouting out and becoming ruffled. His closed his eyes, and your jaw dropped when the previously mansion-sized beast shook his entire body, rubbing a couple flaws out of it before opening his now brown eyes. He was a lot taller than you, and you scrambled to your feet in shock.
“O-Overhaul?” Your voice was dry, and he glanced around before nodding and suddenly running into his cave, a face of determination on. Your eyebrows knotted together, never having expected to see something like that, especially since he was naked.
Still, he didn’t take long, and he returned with a royal king’s purple skirt on, two golden cups in hand. He sat cross-legged in front of the fire, setting the cups down and staring at you. You couldn’t move out of pure confusion, “Over.. haul?” You repeated.
“Yes, now sit,” It was the same voice as before, but without the struggle to pronounce words. He was smooth, fluent, and it was still deep and held authority. You responded simply on auto drive, observing every part of him. He still had a smaller version of his tail from before, with the line of spikes crawling up his back, and his ears were now smaller versions of the metal spikes they once were. His nails were black, a little long, and sharp. You had to admit it outright… he chose a good human form.
“You can… and you never before?” You tried to form a sentence to describe what had just happened, but it was impossible. He had shape shifted.
“Some dragons can. I am powerful, and can easily do so,” He announced proudly, sharp teeth now showing, and you nodded slowly.
“Alright,” Then silence engulfed you. He glanced at the tea, then his eyes flickered back to you.
“Pour us tea, (F/N),” He ordered, and you flinched as he used your first name.
“It’s (L/N), you don’t deserve to call me that,” You grabbed the goblets, then a large leaf to use as a mitt. You poured the tea for the both of you, handing him the large cup and placing the kettle back on the rig. You sipped, enjoying the warmth as the forest became colder. He stared at you, not blinking a single time as he drank from his own.
“I call you what I want, petty human,” He snickered, now able to show how truly ruthless his insults were since you could read his body language. You must truly have lost some sense of sanity if you were easily becoming accustomed to this new form.
“Alright, alright, but don’t think we’re actually that close, Overhaul,” You snapped, and his eyes narrowed.
“We are, are we not? You live with me, I protect you, and you are mine,” He implored, and you looked down at your cup. Damn him, he was even having tea with you. This wasn’t looking good on your part.
“That sounds much worse when you are like this,” You muttered. A dragon stealing a girl wasn’t new information, but a dragon that can turn into a man stealing a girl? It was all too convenient for you, considering what happened earlier today, “Protect? You think you are protecting me?”
“Yes, I must. This is how my species expresses itself,” He shrugged, “Others have their own rituals, mine does not suit you?” He cocked his head to the side, and you scoffed in disdain.
“Really? Do I look remotely happy?” You retorted with a shrill voice, and he blinked slowly before setting his cup down.
“I do imitate Volcano Dwellers quite well, or perhaps a Hoarder?” He leaned back, rolling over onto all for hands and feet and scuttling around the fire to you, his wide eyes studying your reaction as you scooted away.
“Ah… I do not know either species very well, why would you act differently? All dragons steal young maidens,” You pointed out, and he grinned evilly before pushing himself up and standing.
“You will understand soon enough, (F/N), the time will be right,” Your dragon grabbed his goblet off the floor, making his way back to his cave. Seeing his human form in comparison to the cave, shadows of the flames licking his skirt, you started to understand just how easily he could have killed you at any time.
-
A week passed, and Overhaul had practically become a different “dragon.” He occasionally changed out of his human form to hunt and such, but he stayed your size as long as possible. He had begun to skin the animals, leaving their hides out to tan. He had pulled many hides from his own den out and half-hazardously thrown them into your den when you weren’t around. It was sweet, but very out of character. You suspected that he was just getting rid of the old ones and making room for new pieces.
It almost made you think he had gone soft and would allow you to return home, but with how long you had been gone, you highly suspected that the shop did not last. Your family might have moved to live with a relative across the lands, or they may not wish to even take you back. You had been but a burden to them before.
That damned dragon really did get to me, huh? You scowled, reaching deeper into the bushes that you were picking strawberries in.
“Ow!” You pulled back - something was sharp in there! As you nursed your finger, you tentatively pushed the leaves aside. Behind the patches of red, green, and pink, there was some dug up ground with dead stems sticking out of it. For every couple dead stems, there was another half grown plant with small bristles on each of its leaves.
You curiously peered around, looking for clues as to why Overhaul had gotten into gardening. When you spotted a wilting flower, your eyebrows raised.It was the flower you used to pick from his borders. You had thought he killed them all, but in fact, he had brought them much closer to your caves. A small smile tugged at your lips, and you shook your head.
-
When you returned with the barrel of berries, you were surprised to find Overhaul out of sight. There was a strong smell of rust, musk, and charcoal in the air, and you brought your scarf up to your face to cover yourself from the overwhelming smell. You set aside a bit of the berries for jam, and the rest you washed off before sitting at the edge of your cave and munching on them.
Dawn grew closer, and you took to drawing with charcoal on the paper he once stole from passerby. You hummed to yourself, enjoying the solitude, but also curious as to why it was happening. Your captor would usually be watching you from afar, or asking to try the foods you made. He was trying to talk to you more, but his feeble compliments usually held a strange undertone, such as “Your skin has darkened since you arrived, that has made it quite supple.”
He really was starting to confuse you. At one moment he would be showering you with gifts and compliments, and the moment you attempted to leave, he would turn on you and growl. There was no point to being nice to you if he was also confining you.
Once the sun went down, you struck the fire back up and began to prepare the jelly. As you did, you heard shuffling from inside his cave. Ignoring it, he eventually made his way out, albeit slowly. He was so slow that you glanced at him, then jolted in place when you saw that he was wearing the lower half of a set of armour without the boots. His back was arched, and he stalked slowly around the edges of the rocky cliffs before reaching the fire, sitting down beside you.
“Where did that uh… come from?” You gestured to the set, trying to focus on the strawberries. His smell was everywhere, and it wasn’t as good as he thought it was.
“A few seasons ago I destroyed a village. The feeble king wore this,” He nodded, then leaned over to you. You tensed up, spoon in hand, and his nose nestled into your hair and he inhaled deeply.
“Ahhhh…” You trailed off, and he eased back to himself without a word, leaving you to stumble back into what you were doing. While he did have the looks to kill, he also kidnapped you, “It’s not me.”
“Hmm?”
“I’m not the one that smells. That’s you, Overhaul,” You pointed out, pointing to him with the strawberry covered spoon, “You stink.”
“Thank you,” He purred, and you swallowed hard. This damned dragon was getting on your nerves!
“Alright, Overhaul, spit it out. What’s going on with you?” You abandoned the pot, sitting down in front of the large man and crossing your arms. He cocked an eyebrow in question, “First you practically torture me after kidnapping me, now you’re offering me the finest beaver pelts and leaving jewels in my room - bloody hell, you’re feeding me more, and now you think I’m the one who smells?”
He nodded slowly, then his eyes suddenly widened, “Oh, perhaps I have missed a key piece of the Volcano dragon ritual,” He pushed himself up, then full out sprinted back to his den. His armour clanked with every step, and you gaped at the madman. What the hell?
He came back seconds later with a giant pile of freshly tanned hides. You hadn’t ever realized that they weren’t on the ledge that day. He ran straight to your cave, looking like a child with a stack of books to give back to the library, and you scrambled up to run after him, “Overhaul, no - Overhaul!”
He was already laying them out, creating an even larger bed of them. You gaped, “No no no no no, Overhaul, that’s enough - THAT’S ENOUGH!” You shouted, grabbing his arm and pulling it back, “Stop!”
“Stop?” He stood back up, and you let go of his arm, eyes flickering from the floor back to him with a flabbergasted expression, “Are pelts not proper?”
“Not this many, do you plan to sleep in here as a dragon at some point?” You threw your hands up in exasperation, then paused upon his next words.
“Never that, dear human, I would not fit. This is a bed fit for us, do you not agree?” You spluttered in surprise. Instead of calling you “foul human” or “weak human,” he called you dear.
“Us? You plan to sleep here, Overhaul?” Your voice was quieter than you expected. He nodded slowly.
“We must both, you do understand, do you not?” He took a step closer, and you leaned back and scooted your foot back.
That exact moment was when it dawned on you. What reason would you need to leave when he assumed you were his mate? Why would he be so furious with you when you did leave if he assumed you were his mate?
“Overhaul… are you courting me?” You forced some conviction into your voice to try and sound stronger than you felt, but his nod made a shiver go down your spine.
“Yes, (F/N). Did you not do the same when you visited me?” He cocked his head to the side, taking a step closer and forcing you to move back. You swallowed hard, chest tight and palms sweaty. Had this entire ordeal been avoidable if you knew what his kind of dragon’s mating rituals were?
“I, uh, I didn’t know that you thought that was - “ You yelped when he hissed, turning away from you to stare at the pelts.
“Did you not test my loyalty, test my patience, did I not prove myself to be your protector? I have done these things, and you cannot deny it!” His voice grew into a shout, and you quickly rushed forward and grabbed his hands with your own, forcing him to look back down at you.
“I never knew, Overhaul! I am but a human, I understand nothing of your species. If I had, I…” But would you have never picked the flowers?
Back in your village, it was only a matter of time before you were to be arranged a marriage to whoever your brother could buy. That time had been growing closer, and you hated the idea of settling down more than anything - especially with someone you did not know.
“I would still have come,” You gently squeezed his hands, and he glanced down at them and back to you, not understanding what you meant by it, “It’s just a comfort thing,” You whispered in affirmation.
“I need no comfort, I need…” He seethed, “I saw potential in you, not only as a witch, but as a mate. You returned every time I scared you off, you were not swayed. In my species,” He furrowed his eyebrows, then shook his head and replaced it with a blank expression, “You showed infatuation and courage. I desire that deeply, and I wish for you to show that same infatuation for me, I wish for you to bear my children, to witness my power and relish in the destruction of entire moun-”
“Back up - children?” Your stomach dropped. He was serious about that. He nodded, leaning down to your ear. Now at such close proximity and knowing that he wouldn’t injure you, your cheeks flared up. He was trying to court you after all.
“I will make it worth your time, I hear stories of humans searching for dragons to fulfil their deepest des-” Your neck and face were beet red, and you had to pull away with a squeak.
“Too much, Overhaul - Gods, you really do not understand humans,” You hoped he didn’t take your face colour as a signal to continue. Luckily he nodded, eyes flashing with determination.
“I despise most parts of humans, I do not believe I can memorize their mating rituals,” He shrugged, and you shook your head, walking over to the pelts and sitting on the edge of them.
“You don’t need to, I will not infringe on that, but you can at least be kind, right?” You suspected that him changing his mind about you being his mate would only result in your death, but being this for him also means that you could actually live an interesting life with him. Your brother would not need your any longer, and he could live without the debt of a sister now, “You could show affection, yes?”
“I scented you by the fire, I have shown my affection,” He rolled his eyes, and you wagged a finger of disapproval.
“Sit, and you may learn how humans express their… love,” It confused you to use the word, but it was necessary. He killed countless humans, other dragons, and had a knack for being rude, but this left him at a loss for expressing his emotions. If you could understand him, you may just be able to make harmony with the beast.
And so you taught him to hold hands, to kiss, to wrap an arm around your waist, to give a love bite without initiating anything, and to just cuddle and talk. He wasn’t a fast learner.
-
As it turned out, the horrid smell he had been making was actually just his impersonation of the volcano dragons. It went away over about a day and was replaced by a fresh, shiny metallic smell with hints of lavender. You had casually asked if this meant that you were allowed to venture out of his territory, but you received a firm “Only if I accompany you, I cannot let you be injured.”
Alas, he was growing impatient. He craved more than just that, but with his previous treatment, you were still wary of letting him get close. When he would attach himself to you, eyes flicking across the treetops to see if there was an approaching threat, your heart would skip a beat and you would tense up. It was just reflex, and you hoped with your current arrangement that it would vanish.
He wasn’t willing to wait that long. He knew there must be some way to get closer to you, and he hoped that you would accept that, because soon he wouldn’t be able to control himself. Spring had only just started, so his hormones were spiking with each passing day. He brought you food, he even raided a village far away for an entire day, bringing back many accommodations and decorations.
“Yours? But I… are your sure?” You swallowed hard, peering into the darkness of his cave. You had never been allowed in before, but now he was inviting you. It felt so foreign, and you were afraid of stepping on something and setting him off.
“Worry not, my treasures are yours, dear (F/N),” He nodded, taking a step forward and looking to the wall a little farther in. He left your side, and you didn’t move a muscle until you saw that he had grabbed a torch and lit it, handing it to you, “I have more deeper inside.”
“Of course,” You croaking softly, and followed him close behind. Deeper and deeper, it took a couple minutes to reach an opening. He was emotionless, and upon reaching the opening, he glanced over as a wall. He then dropped low, legs spread and hands around his mouth. You stumbled back while he blew fire at the walls, torches being set ablaze and suddenly lightening up the room. He stood back up in the light, wiping his hands on his tunic before looking at you.
You were taking in the sights, “Wow… I had not expected it to be so clean…” You nodded to yourself in affirmation. The walls were polished off by perpetual habit, likely, and in the back of the room was a pile of golden items and other expensive commodities, some slightly melted down into the rough shape of a dragon’s bed. There wasn’t much else, only a couple pelts lying randomly around the room and a bucket of water by the jewel mess. You turned back to him, and he was simply watching you with crossed arms, “Hmm?”
“You seem to enjoy it. Good. You must know my life as I know yours, (F/N),” He approached you, his hand curling around the back of your head and thumbing strands of hair, “You are mine. That is more than any human could wish for.”
Despite his ramping ego, you nodded and grabbed his hand, gently pulling it down to caress your cheek, “You have lived much longer than me, I could never wish to understand you fully,” You rested your head against his hand, “But, I will try, fierce dragon.”
“When Chronostasis called me Kai,” His pointed ears flicked back once in disgust at his previous mate’s name, “That was the name given to me by the hoards of dragons in the North. I was borne to them, but I decided that my legacy was best served in the presence of those below me.”
You chuckled, “Well aren’t you a crowd pleaser?” He raised an eyebrow in question, narrowing his eyes suspiciously. While he hated you insulting him and would growl and turn into a dragon to intimidate you, he was getting used to your playfulness, “Should I call you Kai?”
“Not today,” His hand twitched against your cheek, and you glanced down and back up, “I have made Overhaul my own identity, this is who I am today,” His hand dropped from your face with your own following suit, but he rested it this time around your waist, pulling you closer to him, “(F/N)-”
“Overhaul, we went over this, just…” You shook your head, struggling against his grip. 
“Do not hate me, for I adore you,” He cooed, pressing his face and fangs against your neck and shoulders, rubbing his head gently into your own in animalistic affection. You squeaked, heart racing.
But you were not afraid. In this exact moment, that fear of his mighty wrath vanished and was replaced with anxious excitement. Your struggles grew weak, and you were barely pushing against him, “But Overhaul… you’re a dragon, are you sure..?”
He nodded against your skin, then growled against you, shaking your whole body and causing your knees to nearly buckle. You forced yourself to push your head back to look up at him, but immediately regretted it. His eyes were wild, the orange tints flaring up almost like flames. His ears were folded back, and lips twitching and attempting to curl back in raging need. He did not fully resemble a human. Your own eyes widened at the sight.
“We must traverse to your cavern for warmth,” He suddenly mentioned, the fire in his eyes extinguishing for a bit, giving you a second to breathe and gather your thoughts. You nodded slowly, then quicker. He pulled away from you, snorting and shaking his head before pulling you out of his cave. It was fast, and soon you were in your own well-lit cave.
“Are you in your right mind?” You whispered as he departed from you to sit directly on the pelts, staring at you as you quickly grabbed a glass of water before the main event. He shook his head, using his palm to push hair out of his face.
“The heat of spring approaches. No… it has arrived, but I needed your full trust before I could do this,” He grit his teeth, growling once again, “The pain grows evermore.”
“You are in pain? You should have accepted Ch-” He cut you off with a snarl, his face turning metallic and shiny for a second before he pulled back.
“Come, you have taken enough time,” He ordered, and you downed the glass before taking a deep breath.
-
He was a biter. Gods, he was a biter. After enough tugging at your clothes and fleeting kisses before he would delve back to your jaw, ears, and neck, he was tired with courting. He was out of his clothes in an instant, his body dwarfing your own in sheer size. He was tearing at your own clothes, his sharp nails cutting what he didn’t know how to get off, such as socks.
“You’re mine, human, (F/N),” He purred, nuzzling against your jaw before nipping you ear, causing you to yelp and then melt against him.
“O-Of course,” You whispered back, not thinking very much and instead just feeling. Your hands aimlessly wandered his body, each nook and cranny different than you had anticipated. When his own hands grabbed your breasts, greedily palming them and nipping, your nails dragged across his chest, “Hhh… Overhaul…”
The sounds he made were violently inhuman, such as chirps, guttural groans that resonated through his entire body, hisses, purring, and low growls. They made you squirm and giggle, but it was also insanely hot when your hands travelled below his navel, grazing against his-
Right, two of them, Two members. You hesitantly grabbed the top one, and he cut his hiss off with a, “Don’t push me, I am holding back (F/N),” Your eyes flickered up to his own ravenous, crazed ones, his lips curled back in a snarl.
“Then don’t,” Perhaps you really should have paid attention to him, because the next thing you knew, one of your legs was over his shoulder and your toes were brushing against the spikes that protruded from his backbones while he delved one member into you.
You cried out in surprise, pain and shock taking you over. It was a foreign feeling, and you dug your nails into his shoulders, a sheen of sweat covering his skin. His snarl curled into a wicked smile, and he settled inside of you, “You have no idea what you are dealing with.”
“You might be-” He pulled back, causing you to whimper, and then pushed back in, “Right.” The pain was being massaged out slowly as he started at a leisurely pace, still holding back from showing his true nature. You could tell by the focused look in his eyes despite his face being distorted in dominant pleasure.
He only nodded, continuing to pick up the pace minute by minute. He was enjoying it, purrs of affection resonating from him and around the cave as his hair began to bounce with the pace. He wasn’t nearly started, though. As your tightness melted away and hot, white pleasure spread, he slowed down, causing you to whine and detach yourself from his shoulders, pawing at his chest and collar bones, pulling him down for a kiss.
“Shh,” He demanded, but you continued to whine, “I must prepare you for more.”
“How?” You mused, a delusional smile plastered across your face. He shook his head, one hand playing with your hair while the other gripped a pelt, holding himself up enough not to crush your body.
“You can take it, I promise,” His thumb caressed your cheek, and you glanced down as he instead reached to position his tip at your entrance, the pleasure now easing. You had felt his second member against your butt the entire time, but now that it was present and needed attention, you swallowed hard. That didn’t really seem like it would fit, the first  had hurt, could you even manage?
“A-Alright, but will it-?” Instead of answering you, he leaned down to your neck where there was not already a forming hickey, “Nhh…Overhaul, I’m not dra-” He pushed his way in, your insides stretching to accommodate. You whined, your leg over his shoulder now digging into his back while your nails sunk into his chest. He didn’t let either you adjust this time, instead he stayed slow.
The entire time, he kept your focus on the pain of his bite, and you thanked him for that later. It was hard to not focus on the stretching, the inevitable bit of blood of a virgin, and that sweet pleasure ramming its way back ten fold. Once you stopped mumbling curses, he knew that it was time. He could finally release his pent up stress, his anger, his frustrations, his need that had been present since the very beginning.
His nails dug into the furs, piercing them and latching onto the stone underneath as his mouth detached from your neck, simply resting against your shoulder. You felt your heart flutter at the sound, then you gasped in surprise as his pace picked up and he mercilessly had his way with you. It was an overload of sensations, and he showed no signs of slowing down even twenty minutes in. His stamina was phenomenal, and soon your arms grew tired of pawing at him, feeling his muscles, and holding onto his hair. They fell beside your head, and you let him fuck you.
It only took you a few more minutes until the growing tension of sweat, pleasure, and euphoria snapped inside of you, and your back arched as you gasped and grabbed his arm, your toes curling as you gnashed your teeth. The damned monster purred, low and guttural, and your panting only drove him on.
Each thrust went as deep as he could go, and he didn’t slow down for your intense orgasm, nor any of them after the first. He did, though, pull back to observe your face, his lips stained with blood from your neck and hair messy. His slotted pupils watched your every move, and albeit the embarrassment of your occasional gasp, whine, squeak, and wince of pleasure when he hit just the right spot, you liked seeing him let go.
His version of letting go also meant that the next morning was not your day to make breakfast, though, and he knew it.
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kristinsimmons · 3 years
Text
The Market Forces Behind Vaccine Passports
By SAURABH JHA
Unlike medical meetings, rendering Beethoven’s Ninth Symphony isn’t easy on Zoom, so the local orchestra has been furloughed and their members work for Uber.  The opera house wants to reopen, preferably before we reach the elusive herd immunity threshold. They mandate vaccinations for their artists, not least because the performers can keep their masks off. Should they extend this requirement to their patrons?  
Vaccine passports, proof of immunity against SARS-CoV-2, to work, dine, fly or watch shows, are controversial. Opponents say they blithely disregard decency, are operationally onerous, and hurt liberty. Worryingly, they create a caste system, which wouldn’t be as concerning if based on just immunology. Such a two-tiered system could sadly mirror societal inequities because it’s the poor who may disproportionately be left unvaccinated. Supporters of vaccine passports further the very structural disadvantages they seek to end.
When arguments are too compelling they likely betray an obvious simplicity. Too often arguments against mandates assume they’d be a government fiat. The opponents recline on the country’s inherently liberal streak conjuring visions of rugged individuals fighting unelected bureaucrats. They say with undisguised pride “this isn’t who we are. We’re the US, not New Zealand. We can’t be controlled.”
This narrative is so tightly embedded in right-of-center discourse that it’s now folklore bordering on an Ayn Rand fairy tale. The narrative is nonsense. The state is too incompetent to either govern adeptly or tyrannize efficiently. Case-in-point: CDC’s easily forgeable paper vaccine certificate. If the state were serious about prying on people’s antibodies, it’d have made the immunosurveillance digital.
The obsession with big government should be antiquated. By censoring content, Facebook and Twitter showed that freedom can more efficiently be curtailed by the private sector. Bottom-up censorship is arguably more powerful than top-down censorship because it has buy-in from a segment of the market. It may very well be the private sector which demands vaccine passports, which begs two questions – why and why not?
The scientific arguments against vaccine passports are even more compelling than the deontological arguments. Vaccinations are nearly 100 % effective in stopping infections. The unvaccinated don’t endanger the vaccinated. The unvaccinated endanger only each other and they have a right to accept the mutual risk.
Yet, the opera house may ignore science. For starters, they’d be signaling a safe environment, and even if the safety is excessive, it might be necessary to arrest the inertia of their risk-averse patrons who, having avoided crowds for a year, may need more than science for reassurance. They’d also be signaling a commitment to vaccinations which, despite the hesitancy is some quarters, is now ingrained in public psyche as the path out of the pandemic. A private entity may signal collective virtue for selfish reasons. Adam Smith’s invisible hand works in mysterious ways.     
Even if the unvaccinated implicitly accept the risk of infecting each other, the opera house might not want to be the author of their viral destiny. If the viral spread is traced to the theater, even if the opera house can’t be sued, they’d get bad publicity. Market forces would encourage the establishment to be more prudent than science demanded.   
Couple weeks after receiving my second dose, I was walking to the grocery store in a state of immunological euphoria. In a flash of defiance to the spike protein, I took off my mask to salute my antibodies. A man walking his dog looking disapprovingly at me crossed the road. I wanted to shout “I have been vaccinated, you judgmental Puritan”. Instead of showing him the Kaplan-Meier curves of the Pfizer vaccine, I put my mask back on. I still wear a mask – to protect myself not from the virus, but the judgmentalism of strangers. The alternative is tattooing “I have been vaccinated” on my forehead, but I’m of a shy disposition.
The vaccinated are now hanging out together. After a year of seeing each other on Zoom, they now have dinner at each other’s houses. The mute option has gone. The masks are off.  They’re comfortable because they know they’re vaccinated. An unsaid vaccine honor system already exists. We don’t call it “vaccine passport.” We call it “mutual agreement.”
To understand how businesses might behave, we must understand their clientele and also their costs of obtaining information. All entities try reducing information costs. Discerning between different tiers of risk is costly for both an upscale French eatery and a hole-in-the-wall Schezuan restaurant. The former may enforce vaccine passports so that their affluent patrons feel relaxed sipping Côtes du Rhône wine. For the latter, requiring vaccine passports may drive away their, less affluent, customers.
As more of the more affluent get vaccinated, their urge to normalize will increase. However, this urge won’t rise smoothly. It’ll be preceded by extreme fear, as they’ll feel like they’re walking on landmines. In that inflexion between extreme fear and frontier spirit – which could last days or months – they may demand that the places they frequent mandate vaccine passports.  Upscale restaurants may oblige. Airlines, though not budget airlines, may also oblige. Vaccine passports will segment the more affluent segments of the market.   
Two underappreciated forces in affluent nations are fear and virtuosity, both plentiful here.  The corollary to feeling good about yourself for being vaccinated is wanting to distinguish yourself from the “reprobates” who aren’t. Compliance with masks can be signaled. Compliance with vaccinations, notwithstanding the vaccine selfies posted on Twitter, is more difficult conveying. Vaccine passports unmask our invisible immunology.
Of course, there are legitimate reasons not to be vaccinated. But markets aren’t good at discerning intent – the information costs are prohibitive. Markets may be more nuanced than central diktats but are still not nuanced enough for the heterogeneity of risk and preferences in society. This means we can’t assume that the unvaccinated have entered “I’ll let you infect me if you let me infect you” covenant.
As getting vaccinated gets easier, and more get vaccinated, the already low efficacy of vaccine passports will be even lower. But the zeal for vaccine passports will increase, precisely because getting vaccinated got easier. It’s easier for hotels to turn guests away at 60 % than 25 % occupancy. Why are passports mandatory for international travel, with no exception? Partly because they just are, and partly because anyone can get one.
The incredibly efficacious COVID-19 vaccines made masks redundant. Vaccine passports are the heir apparent to “throw your masks off”. They’ll exist because the vaccinated and unvaccinated are in different risk tiers. And the vaccinated will want their lives to be easier because they’ve been vaccinated.  
Since the start of the pandemic, we’ve tried making restrictions more risk based. We’ve quarantined international travelers, restricted travel from viral hotspots, such as India. The maxim of the operationally challenging “test, trace, and isolate” is keeping people who test positive away from people who test negative. It’s an odd deontology which concludes that it’s ok segregating society on the basis of “has virus” but not “does not have virus”, particularly as the latter is now more within one’s control – one couldn’t as easily have chosen not to be infected as one can now choose to get vaccinated.
No mandate should be judged on its own. It must be judged only in the context of other, more restrictive, mandates.  Weak restrictions create more freedom by displacing stronger restrictions. Presently, Americans require negative COVID-19 test before boarding flights back to the US. Whatever the merits of this restriction, it can make people fear being stranded in another country. Between having a blood test 48 hours before your flight and hoping it’s negative, and showing proof of vaccination, which would you choose? If you’re a frequent flyer would you choose a one-time certificate or a blood test every time you fly?
Across the political spectrum logical consistency has taken a flogging in this pandemic. For instance, consider the Great Barrington Declaration (GBD), which has widespread support amongst conservatives. GBD’s risk-based restriction, “focused protection”, uses the steep age gradient of COVID-19 mortality. Focused protection means we protect the elderly with vigor but not fret about the youth partying. How is keeping unvaccinated granny away from parties in crowded bars, pre-vaccine, categorically different from keeping unvaccinated granny away from the unvaccinated youth in an opera house?  
The scientists will scoff at my conflation. Not all risk heterogeneity is the same. And risk is diminishing – unvaccinated granny is safer now. Vaccinations have flattened the age-mortality-gradient.  My point is that vaccine passports are no more unique in the genre of risk-based restrictions than a Labrador is uniquely canine.
Will vaccine passports reduce faith in vaccinations? It’s certainly plausible that those who don’t want to be vaccinated will resent compulsion. But those at the margins may more likely get vaccinated if vaccinations makes their lives easier.
When individual preferences clash with groups preferences markets segment, which is why we have budget airlines. Vaccine passports may also be a consequence of such tension. They’re not the key to reopening the economy. Rather, they may be the result of their phased re-opening.  Removing the mask mandate will neuter vaccine passports. Vaccine passports will be redundant if the country normalizes today. But many places won’t normalize overnight, or at the same time, and as we creep towards normalization, businesses may use vaccine passports to create sanctuaries of pseudo-normal life, particularly for their employees.
Technocrats think about net benefits of policy, of effect sizes, of uncertainty. Markets aren’t concerned by the algebra of regression equations but governed by the concerns of the time. Perception of risk often lags actual risk. Perception is shaped by multiple entities, such as media, institutions, and television doctors. The closer we reach the end of the pandemic the more impatient markets will become to end the pandemic.
As we’ve been told, markets know best
Tumblr media
Saurabh Jha is a long-time contributor to THCB. He can be reached on Twitter @RogueRad
The Market Forces Behind Vaccine Passports published first on https://wittooth.tumblr.com/
0 notes
lauramalchowblog · 3 years
Text
The Market Forces Behind Vaccine Passports
By SAURABH JHA
Unlike medical meetings, rendering Beethoven’s Ninth Symphony isn’t easy on Zoom, so the local orchestra has been furloughed and their members work for Uber.  The opera house wants to reopen, preferably before we reach the elusive herd immunity threshold. They mandate vaccinations for their artists, not least because the performers can keep their masks off. Should they extend this requirement to their patrons?  
Vaccine passports, proof of immunity against SARS-CoV-2, to work, dine, fly or watch shows, are controversial. Opponents say they blithely disregard decency, are operationally onerous, and hurt liberty. Worryingly, they create a caste system, which wouldn’t be as concerning if based on just immunology. Such a two-tiered system could sadly mirror societal inequities because it’s the poor who may disproportionately be left unvaccinated. Supporters of vaccine passports further the very structural disadvantages they seek to end.
When arguments are too compelling they likely betray an obvious simplicity. Too often arguments against mandates assume they’d be a government fiat. The opponents recline on the country’s inherently liberal streak conjuring visions of rugged individuals fighting unelected bureaucrats. They say with undisguised pride “this isn’t who we are. We’re the US, not New Zealand. We can’t be controlled.”
This narrative is so tightly embedded in right-of-center discourse that it’s now folklore bordering on an Ayn Rand fairy tale. The narrative is nonsense. The state is too incompetent to either govern adeptly or tyrannize efficiently. Case-in-point: CDC’s easily forgeable paper vaccine certificate. If the state were serious about prying on people’s antibodies, it’d have made the immunosurveillance digital.
The obsession with big government should be antiquated. By censoring content, Facebook and Twitter showed that freedom can more efficiently be curtailed by the private sector. Bottom-up censorship is arguably more powerful than top-down censorship because it has buy-in from a segment of the market. It may very well be the private sector which demands vaccine passports, which begs two questions – why and why not?
The scientific arguments against vaccine passports are even more compelling than the deontological arguments. Vaccinations are nearly 100 % effective in stopping infections. The unvaccinated don’t endanger the vaccinated. The unvaccinated endanger only each other and they have a right to accept the mutual risk.
Yet, the opera house may ignore science. For starters, they’d be signaling a safe environment, and even if the safety is excessive, it might be necessary to arrest the inertia of their risk-averse patrons who, having avoided crowds for a year, may need more than science for reassurance. They’d also be signaling a commitment to vaccinations which, despite the hesitancy is some quarters, is now ingrained in public psyche as the path out of the pandemic. A private entity may signal collective virtue for selfish reasons. Adam Smith’s invisible hand works in mysterious ways.     
Even if the unvaccinated implicitly accept the risk of infecting each other, the opera house might not want to be the author of their viral destiny. If the viral spread is traced to the theater, even if the opera house can’t be sued, they’d get bad publicity. Market forces would encourage the establishment to be more prudent than science demanded.   
Couple weeks after receiving my second dose, I was walking to the grocery store in a state of immunological euphoria. In a flash of defiance to the spike protein, I took off my mask to salute my antibodies. A man walking his dog looking disapprovingly at me crossed the road. I wanted to shout “I have been vaccinated, you judgmental Puritan”. Instead of showing him the Kaplan-Meier curves of the Pfizer vaccine, I put my mask back on. I still wear a mask – to protect myself not from the virus, but the judgmentalism of strangers. The alternative is tattooing “I have been vaccinated” on my forehead, but I’m of a shy disposition.
The vaccinated are now hanging out together. After a year of seeing each other on Zoom, they now have dinner at each other’s houses. The mute option has gone. The masks are off.  They’re comfortable because they know they’re vaccinated. An unsaid vaccine honor system already exists. We don’t call it “vaccine passport.” We call it “mutual agreement.”
To understand how businesses might behave, we must understand their clientele and also their costs of obtaining information. All entities try reducing information costs. Discerning between different tiers of risk is costly for both an upscale French eatery and a hole-in-the-wall Schezuan restaurant. The former may enforce vaccine passports so that their affluent patrons feel relaxed sipping Côtes du Rhône wine. For the latter, requiring vaccine passports may drive away their, less affluent, customers.
As more of the more affluent get vaccinated, their urge to normalize will increase. However, this urge won’t rise smoothly. It’ll be preceded by extreme fear, as they’ll feel like they’re walking on landmines. In that inflexion between extreme fear and frontier spirit – which could last days or months – they may demand that the places they frequent mandate vaccine passports.  Upscale restaurants may oblige. Airlines, though not budget airlines, may also oblige. Vaccine passports will segment the more affluent segments of the market.   
Two underappreciated forces in affluent nations are fear and virtuosity, both plentiful here.  The corollary to feeling good about yourself for being vaccinated is wanting to distinguish yourself from the “reprobates” who aren’t. Compliance with masks can be signaled. Compliance with vaccinations, notwithstanding the vaccine selfies posted on Twitter, is more difficult conveying. Vaccine passports unmask our invisible immunology.
Of course, there are legitimate reasons not to be vaccinated. But markets aren’t good at discerning intent – the information costs are prohibitive. Markets may be more nuanced than central diktats but are still not nuanced enough for the heterogeneity of risk and preferences in society. This means we can’t assume that the unvaccinated have entered “I’ll let you infect me if you let me infect you” covenant.
As getting vaccinated gets easier, and more get vaccinated, the already low efficacy of vaccine passports will be even lower. But the zeal for vaccine passports will increase, precisely because getting vaccinated got easier. It’s easier for hotels to turn guests away at 60 % than 25 % occupancy. Why are passports mandatory for international travel, with no exception? Partly because they just are, and partly because anyone can get one.
The incredibly efficacious COVID-19 vaccines made masks redundant. Vaccine passports are the heir apparent to “throw your masks off”. They’ll exist because the vaccinated and unvaccinated are in different risk tiers. And the vaccinated will want their lives to be easier because they’ve been vaccinated.  
Since the start of the pandemic, we’ve tried making restrictions more risk based. We’ve quarantined international travelers, restricted travel from viral hotspots, such as India. The maxim of the operationally challenging “test, trace, and isolate” is keeping people who test positive away from people who test negative. It’s an odd deontology which concludes that it’s ok segregating society on the basis of “has virus” but not “does not have virus”, particularly as the latter is now more within one’s control – one couldn’t as easily have chosen not to be infected as one can now choose to get vaccinated.
No mandate should be judged on its own. It must be judged only in the context of other, more restrictive, mandates.  Weak restrictions create more freedom by displacing stronger restrictions. Presently, Americans require negative COVID-19 test before boarding flights back to the US. Whatever the merits of this restriction, it can make people fear being stranded in another country. Between having a blood test 48 hours before your flight and hoping it’s negative, and showing proof of vaccination, which would you choose? If you’re a frequent flyer would you choose a one-time certificate or a blood test every time you fly?
Across the political spectrum logical consistency has taken a flogging in this pandemic. For instance, consider the Great Barrington Declaration (GBD), which has widespread support amongst conservatives. GBD’s risk-based restriction, “focused protection”, uses the steep age gradient of COVID-19 mortality. Focused protection means we protect the elderly with vigor but not fret about the youth partying. How is keeping unvaccinated granny away from parties in crowded bars, pre-vaccine, categorically different from keeping unvaccinated granny away from the unvaccinated youth in an opera house?  
The scientists will scoff at my conflation. Not all risk heterogeneity is the same. And risk is diminishing – unvaccinated granny is safer now. Vaccinations have flattened the age-mortality-gradient.  My point is that vaccine passports are no more unique in the genre of risk-based restrictions than a Labrador is uniquely canine.
Will vaccine passports reduce faith in vaccinations? It’s certainly plausible that those who don’t want to be vaccinated will resent compulsion. But those at the margins may more likely get vaccinated if vaccinations makes their lives easier.
When individual preferences clash with groups preferences markets segment, which is why we have budget airlines. Vaccine passports may also be a consequence of such tension. They’re not the key to reopening the economy. Rather, they may be the result of their phased re-opening.  Removing the mask mandate will neuter vaccine passports. Vaccine passports will be redundant if the country normalizes today. But many places won’t normalize overnight, or at the same time, and as we creep towards normalization, businesses may use vaccine passports to create sanctuaries of pseudo-normal life, particularly for their employees.
Technocrats think about net benefits of policy, of effect sizes, of uncertainty. Markets aren’t concerned by the algebra of regression equations but governed by the concerns of the time. Perception of risk often lags actual risk. Perception is shaped by multiple entities, such as media, institutions, and television doctors. The closer we reach the end of the pandemic the more impatient markets will become to end the pandemic.
As we’ve been told, markets know best
Tumblr media
Saurabh Jha is a long-time contributor to THCB. He can be reached on Twitter @RogueRad
The Market Forces Behind Vaccine Passports published first on https://venabeahan.tumblr.com
0 notes
ohthehypocrisy · 6 years
Text
Glalie for Pokken Tournament DX!
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We’re almost done with these rewrites. I just have Aerodactyl left.
If you remember my old writeup, I pointed out that Glalie is literally just a floating ball and therefore a pokemon inconceivable of being a fighter for Pokken Tournament. Well, if you look at Glalie’s old pokedex entries, it reads that it is able to control ice and make any shape it wants. So that’s what we’re working with here, a little bit of Glacius from Killer Instinct and maybe a bit of Sub-Zero from Mortal Kombat.
Really, at this point, the only limit to putting a pokemon in Pokken is their size, and even then, I think they’re taking some liberties like with Pikachu and Mewtwo (in which case there is almost a 5 feet difference between them). But yeah, here’s Glalie for Pokken Tournament.
Glalie’s stats are a flat 80 across the board, and its movepool conveys a sense of balance between physical, special, and all sorts of status moves. Bite, Ice Fang, Headbutt, Ice Beam, Frost Breath, Dark Pulse, Hail, Double Team, Leer, as well as the common teachable moves available to most pokemon. Naturally, Glalie’s stronger moves are in the special category, such as Blizzard, Freeze-Dry, and Sheer Cold. Even though it’s Mega Evolution turns it into a more offensive attacker, Glalie embodies the Standard fighting style.
Like with Diancie before, Glalie has an important move to point out before its other moves, and that would be Neutral A Ice Shard. Glalie will began charging and forming ice crystals around its body, forming five of them in the span of 5 seconds. Glalie gains most of its damage output through these Ice Shards. Pressing A when Glalie has five Ice Shards makes it shoot one at the opponent. Each Ice Shard flies across the field very quickly and aims at the opponent very precisely, meaning Glalie can snipe with Ice Shard from afar. You can double tap A twice to instantly shoot one shard if you have less then 5 (at max, you’ll fire two ice shards). At full Ice Shards, you can rapidly press the A button five times to fire five Ice Shards back to back. While charging Ice Shard initially, you can press R to cancel the charge and input a direction to dash out of the way (One Ice Shard is generated every 1 second, canceling before the first Ice Shard is made will leave you without one). Stockpiled Ice Shards will float near Glalie in a star pattern. In addition to being a projectile, Glalie can choose to consume these Ice Shards to extend its combos or power up its Pokemon Moves. Any notable examples will be listed below as they go.
In Field Phase, Glalie takes up a moderate amount of space with its size. It’s a little smaller than the average Glalie, but still a threatening size. Glalie has above average movement speed and is able to direct itself in the air when it jumps, granting it great movement options.
In Field Phase, Neutral Y is Ice Beam. Glalie reels back and charges for a bit before firing a fast beam of coldness at the opponent. This move deals a small amount of damage and deals multiple hits. Holding Y while using this move consumes an Ice Shard to extend the duration of this attack, allowing you to hold an opponent down or chase them as Glalie tracks with this attack (even with five Ice Shards, you cannot break a healthy Guard). Glalie will not aim up at opponents in the air, but will still track them if you choose to extend Ice Beam.
Side Y is Spikes. Glalie bounces a little as it tosses four small spikes made of ice forward. These spikes maintain an active hitbox as they’re out and will last until Glalie uses Spikes again or the opponent steps on them.
Forward Y is Icy Wind. Glalie zooms forward as a trail of cold wind swirls around it surrounding Glalie with an active hitbox that deals very small amounts of damage. It then stops and exhales, sending the gale outward at the opponent. During the dash forward, you can press Y to spend an Ice Shard and upgrade the power of this attack (the more you want to power it up, the more you must press the button). One Ice Shard turns this move into Frost Breath, increasing the size of the attack as well as the damage. Three Ice Shards turns this move into Powder Snow, adding small snowballs to the wind and increasing the damage. Five Ice Shards turns this move into Blizzard, increasing the size of the attack and dealing huge damage to the opponent. All versions of this move come out at the same time.
Back Y is Headbutt. Glalie will jump upwards suddenly with force. This move can combo into Ice Fang with A. Pressing Y during this attack will have you shoot into the ground diagonally downward, burying Glalie slightly. Hitting an opponent with this forces a hard knockdown, but no followup is possible and leaves Glalie vulnerable if you miss or the move is blocked.
Jumping Y is Hail. Glalie will conjure a ball of light blue energy between its horns before unleashing ice to fall all around it. Holding Y allows you to power up this move by spending Ice Shards. No Ice Shards casts a small field of tiny ice balls to fall all around you, dealing no hitstun to a grounded opponent (jumping opponents will flinch). One Ice Shard increases the radius and damage slightly and deal hitstun. Two will increase the size of the attack and deal more damage, increasing the size of the hail. Three will double the amount of hail that falls, increasing damage even further. Four turns the hail into large ice chunks and can deal huge damage to enemy guard. Five turns the hail into boulders, making this attack unblockable and deal huge damage. The Ice Shard will be consumed very quickly when charging (one every 0.4 seconds). While wide in range, there’s a blind spot behind Glalie and an opponent can simply walk behind you and followup with an attack, so be careful not to charge this move for too long and leave yourself open.
X and all variations are Rollout. Glalie will bury itself slightly and start spinning in place on its side. This move has a 1 second long startup lag and cannot be cancelled. During the startup lag, you can press X to consume Ice Shards to power up this move. With no Ice Shards, Glalie will skid forward a bit before stopping, allowing you to move, jump or even attack very quickly out of this. With one Ice Shard, Glalie will roll at the opponent as it is covered in icy spikes and leave a trail of ice in the dirt. This move deals multiple hits and will force a Phase Shift. With two Ice Shards, the ice spikes grow even larger and Glalie can break guard and force a Phase Shift on hit. Glalie will only consume up to two Ice shards for this attack. This attack can be Countered and can be forced out of with projectiles. Side X has Glalie curve as it rolls in all variations of Rollout. If Glalie attacks its own Substitute (see below) with this move, it will allow Glalie to break guard even without two Ice Shards (any spent Ice Shards power up this attack still). Back and Forward do not change this move at all and will perform Neutral X when used.
Jumping X is Avalanche. Glalie will fly straight forward as ice forms behind its trail. This ice then falls to the ground in the order it formed. Afterwards, Glalie will drop to the ground with endlag. Holding X allows Glalie to spend an Ice Shard and allows you to continue the attack from where it would finish. The Side X variation has Glalie zoom in a diagonal direction and trail ice with this attack. Following up with a spent Ice Shard, You can zoom forward, backward, or diagonal again. You can only spend one Ice Shard with this move and extend this move once. Hitting an opponent with two Avalanches will force a Phase Shift.
Glalie’s Counter is Payback. Glalie will charge a dark power around it before unleashing a wave of darkness a short distance from its body.
Field Phase Grab is Iron Head. Glalie will form a set of arms made out of ice and clamp the opponent with them. On confirm, Glalie will trap the opponent with its icy grip and then charge  and release a headbutt, shattering the ice and forcing a Phase Shift.
Duel Phase Grab is Bite. Glalie will open its small mouth and lunge a bit to grab the opponent with its teeth. On confirm, Glalie will chew twice before lifting them up into the air with its mouth, twirling as it does so, and then tosses the opponent into the ground and force a Phase Shift.
In Duel Phase, Glalie has the ability to cancel its Y and X moves into Y moves at the cost of an Ice Shard (its Jumping Y and X cannot be cancelled this way). Glalie’s base attacks are already weak, and the damage output will decrease due to combos weakening your attacks, so Glalie will commonly spend Ice Shards to finish a round more than dealing damage.
Neutral Y has Glalie lean forward a bit and stab with an ice horn it forms immediately.
Crouching Y has Glalie form a tall icicle extending from the floor in front of it, capable of reaching a jumping opponent.
High Y has Glalie extend the length of one of its horns with ice, reaching high above the opponent’s head.
Forward Y has Glalie charge forward with a gale of cold air surrounding it, traveling a short distance.
Back Y has Glalie summon an icicle from a few feet away pointing at itself. This icicle reaches very close to Glalie and almost stabs it, but Glalie leans back expectantly as the icicle almost hits it. This attack will send an opponent tumbling toward Glalie.
Jumping Y has Glalie shoot downward as it forms itself into a wide icicle and strikes the earth with it. Jumping Up Y has Glalie perform the same attack, but it double jumps before attacking, striking with extra distance.
Neutral X has Glalie form two blades on either side of it and slashes them at the opponent, from its left side first and breaks the sword before swinging to the right, breaking the other blade as well.
Crouching X has Glalie leap up from its crouch with a long blade horn and slashes upward, capable of sending opponents upward.
High X has Glalie form a crude hammer out of ice and swings it down. An opponent struck by this move will be sent upwards with a hard bounce.
Forward X has Glalie turn sideways and form an icicle out of itself before zooming forward with its body.
Back X has Glalie form a string of icicles on the ground from a few feet in front of it, which then travels to Glalie before stopping. Airborne opponents will be juggled towards Glalie with this move.
Jumping X has Glalie form six icicles around its body and covers its two horns with ice, making itself a spiked ice ball. This attack deals multiple hits and knocks the opponent upward a bit, allowing ground attacks to chain into a combo if you’re fast enough. Neutral Jumping X sends Glalie tumbling forward in a curve before landing. Down Jumping X sends Glalie tumbling straight down. High Jumping X sends Glalie tumbling diagonally upward with a bounce. Forward and Back have no variation and will instead perform Neutral and Down X respectively.
As stated before, Glalie’s Neutral A is Ice Shard, and it’s super important to Glalie as it allows it to power up its moves and increase its combo potential. In Duel Phase it’s especially threatening as it can use it to extend its combos or spam Y to potentially beat out a counter in the small window of vulnerability (on some counters). You must keep track of your Ice Shards to maximize your damage output and to keep yourself safe.
Forward A is Freeze-Dry. Glalie will cover a small area a short distance away from itself in ice, which will then melt. An opponent caught in this area will be frozen for a second, allowing Glalie to followup with whatever move it wants. Glalie can restore its Substitute with this move. It is capable of hitting a jumping opponent, but the size of the hitbox makes this very difficult. This move is functionally identical in both phases.
Back A is Substitute. Glalie will dash backwards and leave an ice sculpture of itself behind. Glalie will automatically spend one Ice Shard to make this Substitute.  If Glalie has no Ice Shard, Glalie will lose 90 HP (which becomes recoverable HP). If a Substitute is already out, Glalie will dash backwards and not make a new one. If Glalie has no Ice Shards and less than 90 HP, it will be left with 1 HP and the Substitute will always break in one hit. This Substitute can take up to 90 HP of damage, although it will instantly break if Glalie attacks it or if the opponent has an Attack Boost.  While out, the Substitute can take projectiles (not lasers) and block an opponents path (an opponent will not be able to stand on the Substitute and will instead land beside it). If Glalie breaks the Substitute, it will send shards of ice in a shotgun pattern forward. This move is functionally identical in both phases.
In Duel Phase only, Down A is Sheer Cold. Glalie will cover itself in thick ice for a brief second before melting it off. This is a counter move and will only activate if the opponent attacks. On a successful counter, Glalie will explode with a flurry of ice and icicles protruding in all directions. If an opponent is caught in this attack (depending on the range or if they used projectiles) they will be stuck frozen solid for two seconds as Glalie frees itself from the ice. Although this move deals modest damage, Glalie can proceed to combo or generate Ice Shards freely.
In Duel Phase only, Up A is Crunch. Glalie will break the ice off of its face and open its mouth widely. Afterwards, Glalie will shake its head and reform the ice, leaving itself vulnerable. This is a grab move, but it has armor, protecting it from attacks. If an opponent jumps into Glalie (whether they were attacking or were being juggled by Glalie’s attacks), it will then clamp down and bite repeatedly before leaping up and slamming them down into the ground, dealing heavy damage. As this move has armor, it must be baited out since Glalie is vulnerable after this move, which makes it tricky to use even if you have Substitute out.
Jumping A is Ice Fang. Glalie will form a set of teeth made out of ice and chomp twice, flying towards the opponent. Pressing A again allows Glalie to repeat this move at the cost of an Ice Shard, but it’s homing ability makes it possible to chain six Ice Fangs together.
Glalie’s Burst Mode is Mega Evolution. In addition to an increase in power (actually much less than typical burst mode boosts), many of Glalie’s moves increase in size. For the sake of brevity, the most notable changes will be listed here. Mega Glalie will start generating Ice Shards automatically every second (attempting to spend an Ice Shard without one will result in an ignored input). Ice Shard’s projectile becomes bigger. Substitute becomes larger. Freeze-Dry becomes wider and reaches slightly more into the air. The size of Mega Glalie’s Duel Phase X attacks become much larger and have more range. It becomes easier to force a Phase Shift in Duel Mode (to balance out the fact that Ice Shard regenerates automatically and can be spent to make an infinite combo).
Glalie’s Burst Attack is SUB-ZERO CRUSHER. On activation, Glalie freezes the earth around it and forges four arms of ice around it. These arms then reach into the air to try and grab the opponent. This attack will fail to hit a grounded opponent. On confirm, more ice hands reach out and grab the opponent, slowly crystallizing them into an icicle. Once frozen over, a giant ice sculpture of Mega Glalie appears in the background and proceeds to bite down on the opponent. All of the ice breaks away after the final hit, returning both fighters to the battlefield.
Glalie’s synergy gauge builds very slowly, requiring lengthy combos to fill. Glalie’s Burst Mode lasts a below average amount of time. Glalie’s Burst Attack deals moderate damage, but has a limit to how low it can get despite combos reducing the damage. That limit is 40 damage at the minimum, meaning a combo chain must lower the opponent’s HP to this amount to guarantee victory.
Glalie’s High Stance allows it to dodge Low Moves. Glalie’s Low Stance allows it to block Low Moves.
Glalie is a combo monster, able to spend its Ice Shards to deal extensive damage through multiple hits. A good Glalie player will always have one on them and will be careful not to fight for too long without one. Because of the length of its attacks, its range is crazy and can keep opponents in the danger zone.  In fact, because it can spam Y attacks with Ice Shard, Counters aren’t guaranteed to work because of the chance they’ll hit during the vulnerable attack animation. This makes Glalie rather scary from all distances, and that’s all thanks to Ice Shard.
Unfortunately, it’s reliance on Ice Shard makes it vulnerable to aggressive rush down. Sure, it has Substitute to put a wall between it and the opponent, but Glalie will only be able to get one more Ice Shard out of it (which it had to spend to make the Substitute unless it was forced to use its HP). Of course, Glalie does have the option of breaking the Sub itself and punish aggressive approach options, but even then, Glalie’s defenses will eventually crumble, especially if the opponent has an assist to boost its attack (of which there are many). Freeze-Dry is a problem, though, as is Sheer Cold, but Glalie is still made out of ice, and that armor will eventually weather away. If you can survive the blizzard, you’ll come out on top.
This has been a writeup for Glalie in Pokken Tournament DX. I actually ended up forgetting the Counter moves, so I’ve gone ahead and edited those in the previous writeups. Of which, they are Torterra, Nihilego, Diancie, Claydol, Registeel, and Aerodactyl (okay, not this one, but it’s still a link to the old version before I rewrite it). I’ve got one more rewrite left, but you can still message me about a pokemon you’d like to see in Pokken. I’m all ears!
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kristinsimmons · 3 years
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The Market Forces Behind Vaccine Passports
By SAURABH JHA
Unlike medical meetings, rendering Beethoven’s Ninth Symphony isn’t easy on Zoom, so the local orchestra has been furloughed and their members work for Uber.  The opera house wants to reopen, preferably before we reach the elusive herd immunity threshold. They mandate vaccinations for their artists, not least because the performers can keep their masks off. Should they extend this requirement to their patrons?  
Vaccine passports, proof of immunity against SARS-CoV-2, to work, dine, fly or watch shows, are controversial. Opponents say they blithely disregard decency, are operationally onerous, and hurt liberty. Worryingly, they create a caste system, which wouldn’t be as concerning if based on just immunology. Such a two-tiered system could sadly mirror societal inequities because it’s the poor who may disproportionately be left unvaccinated. Supporters of vaccine passports further the very structural disadvantages they seek to end.
When arguments are too compelling they likely betray an obvious simplicity. Too often arguments against mandates assume they’d be a government fiat. The opponents recline on the country’s inherently liberal streak conjuring visions of rugged individuals fighting unelected bureaucrats. They say with undisguised pride “this isn’t who we are. We’re the US, not New Zealand. We can’t be controlled.”
This narrative is so tightly embedded in right-of-center discourse that it’s now folklore bordering on an Ayn Rand fairy tale. The narrative is nonsense. The state is too incompetent to either govern adeptly or tyrannize efficiently. Case-in-point: CDC’s easily forgeable paper vaccine certificate. If the state were serious about prying on people’s antibodies, it’d have made the immunosurveillance digital.
The obsession with big government should be antiquated. By censoring content, Facebook and Twitter showed that freedom can more efficiently be curtailed by the private sector. Bottom-up censorship is arguably more powerful than top-down censorship because it has buy-in from a segment of the market. It may very well be the private sector which demands vaccine passports, which begs two questions – why and why not?
The scientific arguments against vaccine passports are even more compelling than the deontological arguments. Vaccinations are nearly 100 % effective in stopping infections. The unvaccinated don’t endanger the vaccinated. The unvaccinated endanger only each other and they have a right to accept the mutual risk.
Yet, the opera house may ignore science. For starters, they’d be signaling a safe environment, and even if the safety is excessive, it might be necessary to arrest the inertia of their risk-averse patrons who, having avoided crowds for a year, may need more than science for reassurance. They’d also be signaling a commitment to vaccinations which, despite the hesitancy is some quarters, is now ingrained in public psyche as the path out of the pandemic. A private entity may signal collective virtue for selfish reasons. Adam Smith’s invisible hand works in mysterious ways.     
Even if the unvaccinated implicitly accept the risk of infecting each other, the opera house might not want to be the author of their viral destiny. If the viral spread is traced to the theater, even if the opera house can’t be sued, they’d get bad publicity. Market forces would encourage the establishment to be more prudent than science demanded.   
Couple weeks after receiving my second dose, I was walking to the grocery store in a state of immunological euphoria. In a flash of defiance to the spike protein, I took off my mask to salute my antibodies. A man walking his dog looking disapprovingly at me crossed the road. I wanted to shout “I have been vaccinated, you judgmental Puritan”. Instead of showing him the Kaplan-Meier curves of the Pfizer vaccine, I put my mask back on. I still wear a mask – to protect myself not from the virus, but the judgmentalism of strangers. The alternative is tattooing “I have been vaccinated” on my forehead, but I’m of a shy disposition.
The vaccinated are now hanging out together. After a year of seeing each other on Zoom, they now have dinner at each other’s houses. The mute option has gone. The masks are off.  They’re comfortable because they know they’re vaccinated. An unsaid vaccine honor system already exists. We don’t call it “vaccine passport.” We call it “mutual agreement.”
To understand how businesses might behave, we must understand their clientele and also their costs of obtaining information. All entities try reducing information costs. Discerning between different tiers of risk is costly for both an upscale French eatery and a hole-in-the-wall Schezuan restaurant. The former may enforce vaccine passports so that their affluent patrons feel relaxed sipping Côtes du Rhône wine. For the latter, requiring vaccine passports may drive away their, less affluent, customers.
As more of the more affluent get vaccinated, their urge to normalize will increase. However, this urge won’t rise smoothly. It’ll be preceded by extreme fear, as they’ll feel like they’re walking on landmines. In that inflexion between extreme fear and frontier spirit – which could last days or months – they may demand that the places they frequent mandate vaccine passports.  Upscale restaurants may oblige. Airlines, though not budget airlines, may also oblige. Vaccine passports will segment the more affluent segments of the market.   
Two underappreciated forces in affluent nations are fear and virtuosity, both plentiful here.  The corollary to feeling good about yourself for being vaccinated is wanting to distinguish yourself from the “reprobates” who aren’t. Compliance with masks can be signaled. Compliance with vaccinations, notwithstanding the vaccine selfies posted on Twitter, is more difficult conveying. Vaccine passports unmask our invisible immunology.
Of course, there are legitimate reasons not to be vaccinated. But markets aren’t good at discerning intent – the information costs are prohibitive. Markets may be more nuanced than central diktats but are still not nuanced enough for the heterogeneity of risk and preferences in society. This means we can’t assume that the unvaccinated have entered “I’ll let you infect me if you let me infect you” covenant.
As getting vaccinated gets easier, and more get vaccinated, the already low efficacy of vaccine passports will be even lower. But the zeal for vaccine passports will increase, precisely because getting vaccinated got easier. It’s easier for hotels to turn guests away at 60 % than 25 % occupancy. Why are passports mandatory for international travel, with no exception? Partly because they just are, and partly because anyone can get one.
The incredibly efficacious COVID-19 vaccines made masks redundant. Vaccine passports are the heir apparent to “throw your masks off”. They’ll exist because the vaccinated and unvaccinated are in different risk tiers. And the vaccinated will want their lives to be easier because they’ve been vaccinated.  
Since the start of the pandemic, we’ve tried making restrictions more risk based. We’ve quarantined international travelers, restricted travel from viral hotspots, such as India. The maxim of the operationally challenging “test, trace, and isolate” is keeping people who test positive away from people who test negative. It’s an odd deontology which concludes that it’s ok segregating society on the basis of “has virus” but not “does not have virus”, particularly as the latter is now more within one’s control – one couldn’t as easily have chosen not to be infected as one can now choose to get vaccinated.
No mandate should be judged on its own. It must be judged only in the context of other, more restrictive, mandates.  Weak restrictions create more freedom by displacing stronger restrictions. Presently, Americans require negative COVID-19 test before boarding flights back to the US. Whatever the merits of this restriction, it can make people fear being stranded in another country. Between having a blood test 48 hours before your flight and hoping it’s negative, and showing proof of vaccination, which would you choose? If you’re a frequent flyer would you choose a one-time certificate or a blood test every time you fly?
Across the political spectrum logical consistency has taken a flogging in this pandemic. For instance, consider the Great Barrington Declaration (GBD), which has widespread support amongst conservatives. GBD’s risk-based restriction, “focused protection”, uses the steep age gradient of COVID-19 mortality. Focused protection means we protect the elderly with vigor but not fret about the youth partying. How is keeping unvaccinated granny away from parties in crowded bars, pre-vaccine, categorically different from keeping unvaccinated granny away from the unvaccinated youth in an opera house?  
The scientists will scoff at my conflation. Not all risk heterogeneity is the same. And risk is diminishing – unvaccinated granny is safer now. Vaccinations have flattened the age-mortality-gradient.  My point is that vaccine passports are no more unique in the genre of risk-based restrictions than a Labrador is uniquely canine.
Will vaccine passports reduce faith in vaccinations? It’s certainly plausible that those who don’t want to be vaccinated will resent compulsion. But those at the margins may more likely get vaccinated if vaccinations makes their lives easier.
When individual preferences clash with groups preferences markets segment, which is why we have budget airlines. Vaccine passports may also be a consequence of such tension. They’re not the key to reopening the economy. Rather, they may be the result of their phased re-opening.  Removing the mask mandate will neuter vaccine passports. Vaccine passports will be redundant if the country normalizes today. But many places won’t normalize overnight, or at the same time, and as we creep towards normalization, businesses may use vaccine passports to create sanctuaries of pseudo-normal life, particularly for their employees.
Technocrats think about net benefits of policy, of effect sizes, of uncertainty. Markets aren’t concerned by the algebra of regression equations but governed by the concerns of the time. Perception of risk often lags actual risk. Perception is shaped by multiple entities, such as media, institutions, and television doctors. The closer we reach the end of the pandemic the more impatient markets will become to end the pandemic.
As we’ve been told, markets know best
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Saurabh Jha is a long-time contributor to THCB. He can be reached on Twitter @RogueRad
The Market Forces Behind Vaccine Passports published first on https://wittooth.tumblr.com/
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