#electoral dynamics

[signode-blog]

"Political Pundits Predict: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 in India Set to Shake NDA's Majority"

As the anticipation builds for the upcoming Lok Sabha Elections in 2024, political analysts and pundits are scrutinizing every indicator, from public sentiment to the betting trends in places like Phalodi Satta Bazar. While the outcome remains uncertain, one prevailing sentiment emerges: the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) might face challenges in securing a resounding victory. Contrary to…

View On WordPress

#betting trends #coalition politics #coalition-building #electoral dynamics #electoral speculation #Indian democracy #Indian politics #Lok Sabha Elections #Lok Sabha Elections 2024 #NDA #NDA majority #opposition alliances #Phalodi Satta Bazar #political analysis #political dynamics #political speculation #regional parties #voter preferences #voter sentiment

[usavotey]

Swing States in 2024 Presidential Election

Swing States in the 2024 Presidential Election Georgia and Arizona are predicted to be among the closest contenders in the power rankings in the 2024 presidential election. This state was once a Republican stronghold. Wisconsin, Nevada and Pennsylvania have flipped red and blue over the past few years, so it’s been difficult to figure out who enrolled voters there will choose in 2024. “The…

View On WordPress

#Arizona #battleground states #Campaign strategies #Colorado #Demographic shifts #Electoral battlegrounds #Electoral dynamics #Florida #Georgia #Nevada #North Carolina #Pennsylvania #Political demographics #Political polarization #Presidential election #swing states #Voter trends #Wisconsin

[every-day-updates]

Striking a Balance: Congress' Approach to Haryana's Diversity

In a strategic move reflecting lessons learned from past electoral outcomes, the Congress party in Haryana has unveiled a carefully balanced list of candidates for the upcoming elections. The selection process underscores the party’s effort to cater to the diverse demographics and communities within the state.

Amidst the backdrop of BJP’s sweeping victory in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, where it claimed all 10 constituencies in Haryana, the Congress aims to restore equilibrium by ensuring representation from various influential castes. Notably, the party has distributed tickets across nine constituencies, with Kurukshetra being held by the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).

The candidate list exhibits a conscious effort to accommodate key communities, with two tickets allocated to Jats, Dalits, and Other Backward Classes (OBCs) each. Additionally, one ticket each has been allotted to the Punjabi and Brahmin communities, reflecting a commitment to inclusivity.

Among the prominent candidates are Deepender Hooda and Jai Prakash representing the Jat community, while Kumari Selja and Varun Chaudhary stand as the Scheduled Caste nominees. Notably, the Congress has strategically positioned candidates from various communities to challenge BJP contenders effectively.

The electoral strategy extends beyond mere representation, with considerations for caste dynamics and previous voting patterns. For instance, the Congress has fielded candidates from communities that constitute significant portions of the electorate, aiming to capitalize on existing support bases.

In a state where caste equations play a crucial role in electoral outcomes, the Congress’ approach underscores a nuanced understanding of Haryana’s socio-political landscape. By aligning candidate selection with demographic realities and community sentiments, the party seeks to consolidate its position and mount a formidable challenge to its opponents.

As the electoral battle intensifies, the Congress’ emphasis on inclusivity and balance sets the stage for a competitive and dynamic political landscape in Haryana. With a keen eye on diversity and representation, the party endeavors to navigate the intricate web of caste affiliations and emerge as a formidable contender in the upcoming elections.

#Congress #Haryana elections #Electoral strategy #Caste dynamics #Community representation

[gurucave]

Trump Secures Victory in New Hampshire Primary, Posing Challenges for Rival Haley

The 2024 United States presidential election season is underway, and New Hampshire recently hosted its crucial primary, marking a pivotal moment in the race. In a swift announcement by the Associated Press, former President Donald Trump emerged as the Republican winner, further solidifying his dominance within the party. This article delves into the New Hampshire primary results, analyzing the…

View On WordPress

#2024 Presidential Election #Abortion Rights #Associated Press #Biden&039;s Write-in Campaign #Campaign Developments. #Campaign Dynamics #Candidate Strategies #Democratic National Committee #Democratic Victory #Donald Trump #Edison Research #Election Dynamics #Election Implications #Election Narratives #Election Night Drama #Election Results #Electoral Landscape #Electoral Process #Exit Polls #Haley&039;s Campaign #Iowa Caucus #Joe Biden #New Hampshire Ballot #New Hampshire Primary #Nikki Haley #Political Challenges #Political Controversies #Political Landscape #Political Rivalry #Republican Nomination

[metamatar]

This is maybe a stupid question but do you think there's any ties between like orientalist trends in western countries that glorify dharmic religions and Hindutva? Like I've heard 'Hinduism is the oldest religion on Earth' and 'Hinduism/Buddhism are just so much more enlightened than savage Abrahamic religions' and 'how could there be war and oppression in India? Hindus don't believe in violence' from white liberals and it certainly seems *convenient* for Hindutva propaganda, at least.

Not stupid at all! Historically, orientalism precedes modern Hindutva. The notion of a unified Hinduism is actually constructed in the echo of oriental constructions of India, with Savarkar clearly modelling One Nation, One Race, One Language on westphalian nationhood. He will often draw on Max Mueller type of indology orientalists in his writing in constructing the Hindu claim to a golden past and thus an ethnostate.

In terms of modern connections you can see the use and abuse of orientalism in South Asian postcolonial studies depts in the west that end up peddling Hindutva ideology –

The geographer Sanjoy Chakravorty recently promised that, in his new book, he would “show how the social categories of religion and caste as they are perceived in modern-day India were developed during the British colonial rule…” The air of originality amused me. This notion has been in vogue in South Asian postcolonial studies for at least two decades. The highest expression of the genre, Nicholas Dirks’s Castes of Mind, was published in 2001. I take no issue with claiming originality for warmed-over ideas: following the neoliberal mantra of “publish or perish,” we academics do it all the time. But reading Chakravorty’s essay, I was shocked at the longevity of this particular idea, that caste as we know it is an artefact of British colonialism. For any historian of pre-colonial India, the idea is absurd. Therefore, its persistence has less to do with empirical merit, than with the peculiar dynamics of the global South Asian academy.

[...] No wonder that Hindutvadis in both countries are now quoting their works to claim that caste was never a Hindu phenomenon. As Dalits are lynched across India and upper-caste South Asian-Americans lobby to erase the history of their lower-caste compatriots from US textbooks, to traffic in this self-serving theory is unconscionable.

You can see writer sociologists beloved of western academia like Ashish Nandy argue for the "inherent difference of indian civilization makes secularism impossible" and posit that the caste ridden gandhian hinduism is the answer as though the congress wasn't full of hindutva-lites and that the capture of dalit radicalism by electoralism and grift is actually a form of redistribution. Sorry if thats not necessarily relevant I like to hate on him.

Then most importantly is the deployment of "Islamic Colonization" that Hindu India must be rescued from, which is merely cover for the rebrahmanization of the country. This periodization and perspective of Indian history is obviously riven up in British colonial orientalism, see Romila Thapar's work on precolonial India. Good piece on what the former means if you've not engaged with it, fundamentally it posits an eternal Hindu innocence.

#sorry for not posting new articles tbh but these have received airtime before on this blog bc theyre good! #asks #hindutva

[wilwheaton]

The congressional party is controlled and run by the hard right minority variously called the Tea Party or Freedom Caucus. But they are a bit too hot for national public consumption. They also rely on the idea that their far right policy agenda has broad public support but is held back by a corrupt/bureaucratic establishment. For both of these reasons a system was developed in which this far right group runs the caucus, but from the background, while it is nominally run by a mainstreamish Republican leader. Under John Boehner, Paul Ryan or Kevin McCarthy this basic dynamic remained more or less the same. It works for everybody because the Freedom Party calls the shots while the party maintains broad electoral viability via figureheadish leadership.

No Plans To Veer From The McCarthy Punishment Playbook

[foreverlogical]

In a New York Times profile of the Michigan Republican Party, state Rep. Lisa McClain offers a quintessentially stoic midwestern insight about the ailing state party that perfectly sums up the GOP's national dynamic too.

“It’s not going real well," McClain told the Times' Nick Corasaniti.

“The ability to raise money," she continued, "we’ve got a lot of donors sitting on the sideline. That’s not an opinion. That’s a fact. It’s just a plain fact. We have to fix that.”

Though McClain was assessing the divide between the state's monied benefactors, such as former Trump Education Secretary Betsy DeVos, and its Trumpy grassroots activists, she may as well have been talking about national GOP donors' frantic search for a savior as the MAGA grassroots coalesce around Donald Trump for the 2024 nomination.

In fact, Corasaniti's piece—an anatomy of GOP dysfunction encapsulated by the Republican Party in a Rust Belt swing state—mirrors rifts emerging across the country at both the state and national levels. Corasaniti portrays a party coming apart at the seams after its drubbing in the '22 cycle in a state where Republicans roundly lost the gubernatorial contest, every statewide executive office (e.g., attorney general and secretary of state), and control of both legislative chambers. A hat trick, if you will.

The key cast of characters includes:

Tudor Dixon, 2022 gubernatorial nominee, Bible-thumper, anti-abortion activist, and former right-wing news host.

Fervent 2020 election deniers Kristina Karamo and Matthew DePerno, 2022 GOP nominees for secretary of state and attorney general, respectively.

Meshawn Maddock, former co-chair of the Republican Party and leader of Women for Trump, who has been charged in the fake elector scheme.

The DeVos family, longtime Republican Party donors and Michigan establishment heavyweights.

Every one of those is effectively a stand-in for similarly situated Republican players in GOP apparatuses around the country.

Following Michigan Republicans' midterm election implosion, a round of rapid-fire finger-pointing broke out, with MAGA party officials blaming Dixon for a toxic near-total abortion ban position and soft fundraising, Dixon blaming both the party and old-guard donors for her campaign's collapse, and party officials chastising donors for insufficiently funding their cuckoo election-denying candidates.

Corasaniti writes:

A state party autopsy days after the election, made public by Ms. Dixon, acknowledged that “we found ourselves consistently navigating the power struggle between Trump and anti-Trump factions of the party” and that Mr. Trump “provided challenges on a statewide ballot.”

True enough. On the national stage, every 2024 Republican hopeful but Trump is presently trying to thread the needle of enthusing high-dollar donors while managing to peel away pro-Trump voters open to alternatives.Campaign Action

Back in Michigan, establishment type Dave Trott, a retired GOP congressman and former state party donor, dished about the Republican elite's distrust of former GOP co-chair Maddock, a MAGA activist.

"Meshawn was never connected to the donor base, and so having her as the vice chair [of the party] for a lot of us was a showstopper,” Trott explained. "We just knew she would never be someone that would be rational in her approach to state party politics."

In response, Maddock expressed a reciprocal lack of trust in the party's establishment muckety-mucks.

“The state party needs the wealthy RINOs who often fund it to come to terms with what the actual voters on the right want,” Maddock told the Times. Wealthy donors, she added, need to treat the base "with an ounce of respect for once.”

The same could be said of national Republican donors who have never crossed paths with actual base voters and apparently still believe Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin can save them from Trump.

That same mutual distrust and disgust between establishment Republican donors and state party officials is also playing out in Georgia, where popular Republican Gov. Brian Kemp warned well-heeled donors earlier this year they could "no longer rely on" the state Republican Party to win elections. Kemp has effectively built a parallel political apparatus after urging donors to abandon the pro-Trump state party.

And then there are the anti-abortion zealots pointing fingers at everyone else for their own deeply unpopular position. Dixon's support for a strict abortion ban doomed her candidacy, just like the efforts of Ohio Republicans to ban abortion there sank an anti-abortion ballot measure earlier this month.

Following that loss, the nation's premier forced birther group, Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life 

America, castigated establishment Republicans and the business community for not pulling their weight in the battle to pass the measure, which would have significantly raised the bar for enshrining abortion protections in Ohio's constitution.

All across the nation, the Republican Party is reckoning with the deal it cut with the devil. In swing states like Michigan and Georgia, red states like Ohio, and nationally, the GOP is cracking up as different factions variously cling to or reject Trump. The damage done may not be fully realized until voters cast their ballots next year, but the Republican Party is entering 2024 in a position so precarious that it almost defies historical comparison.

[dontmeantobepoliticalbut]

President Biden’s brain trust appears confident that he will ultimately prevail over Donald Trump due to the threat Trump poses to our constitutional system. By November, the election’s “focus will become overwhelmingly on democracy,” one top Biden adviser told The New Yorker, adding that “the biggest images in people’s minds are going to be of January 6th.”

If so, the Biden campaign had better get cracking.

Some new polling from a top Democratic pollster finds mixed news for Team Biden on this front: Large swaths of voters appear to have little awareness of some of Trump’s clearest statements of hostility to democracy and intent to impose authoritarian rule in a second term, from his vow to be “dictator for one day” to his vague threat to enact “termination” of provisions in the Constitution.

That’s maddening for obvious reasons. But it also presents the Biden campaign with an opportunity. If voters are unaware of all these statements, there’s plenty of time to make voters aware of them—and the polling also finds that these statements, when aired to respondents, shift them against Trump.

The survey—which was conducted by veteran Democratic pollster Geoff Garin for the group Save My Country and shared with The New Republic—did something novel. It polled 400 voters in each of three swing states—Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—and weighted them in proportion with each state’s Electoral College votes. It omitted respondents who voted for Trump in 2020 and also said Biden didn’t legitimately win.

In short, the poll was designed to survey voters who are genuinely gettable for Biden. The poll asked them about 10 of Trump’s most authoritarian statements, including: the two mentioned above, Trump’s claim that immigrants are “poisoning the blood of our country,” his vow to pardon rioters who attacked the Capitol, his promise to prosecute the Biden family without cause, his threat to inflict mass persecution on the “vermin” opposition, and a few more.

Result? “Only 31 % of respondents said they previously had heard a lot about these statements by Trump,” the memo accompanying the poll concluded.

The good news for Biden is that when respondents were presented with these quotes, it prompted a rise in Trump’s negatives. For instance, after hearing them, the percentage who see him as “out for revenge” jumped by five points, the percentage who see him as “dangerous” rose by nine points, and the percentage who see him as a “dictator” climbed by seven points.

“This is an opportunity to move voters and change the race,” Garin told me, noting that this shows that current public polling, which has Biden down to Trump, is “not set in concrete.”

If this Democratic polling is right, it might help explain a dynamic that has perplexed observers. The latest New York Times poll finds Biden trailing Trump by five points among registered voters even as 53% think he committed serious crimes.

Yet voters may still see Trump’s (alleged) criminality as a theoretical proposition, without connecting it to the type of unbound, lawless presidency he has told us he’d preside over—in his own words.

Indeed, the poll from Save My Country finds that after voters are presented with these statements, the percentage of those who view Trump unfavorably jumps five points, from 53% to 58%, and 69% say Trump will bring “chaos to the presidency and our country.”

In other words, when voters are presented with evidence straight from Trump’s own mouth, they see an authoritarian second term as very plausible.

In one sense, the lack of voter awareness of Trump’s “dictator” threats shows that the Biden campaign and Democrats don’t appear to have succeeded in making voters aware of the menace Trump poses. Perhaps their messaging has yet to work, or maybe the party has not seriously used the levers of power at its disposal to highlight Trump’s staggering corruption and malice.

But if this polling is right, one explanation that doesn’t seem as plausible is that voters don’t care about these matters. In fact, all this might in some ways validate one of the Biden camp’s frequent claims—that voters are so checked out that they aren’t seriously aware of the threat a second Trump term poses.

The new polling also counters a well-worn refrain from skittish, nonconfrontational Democrats. They sometimes say Trump’s negatives are so well known—or “baked in,” as campaign jargon puts it—that there’s no sense in spending much time on his authoritarian outbursts, affection for political violence, and wide array of (alleged) crimes. Yet all this may in an important sense constitute new information for untold numbers of voters.

“Trump’s negatives are not baked into the cake at all,” Garin told me. Fortunately for the Biden camp, between now and Election Day there are some eight months to fire up the campaign crucible and ensure that they do get baked in—good and hard.

#us politics #news #republicans #donald trump #conservatives #trump administration #gop #2024 #2024 elections #president joe biden #the lincoln project #the new republic #polling #authoritarianism #fascism #Geoff Garin #Save My Country #videos #YouTube #ads

[gatheringbones]

[“To be unequivocally clear, male survivors of domestic and sexual violence exist, and they are all too often dismissed by our patriarchal culture. I can’t emphasize this enough: Men are more likely to experience sexual abuse than be falsely accused of it. At the same time, the idea that mutual abuse occurs stems from a dangerously juvenile analysis of power dynamics that frames men’s “right” to hit women as the truest form of gender equality.

Earlier in this book, I include pieces of my conversations with domestic violence experts Amanda Kippert and Ruth Glenn about abuse. Kippert also told me that while interest in the term “mutual abuse” skyrocketed over the course of the trial, the impulse to find any reason to write off women who say they were harmed, itself, isn’t new. Women who don’t meet our sexist, racist, classist, ableist, and heteronormative expectations of a “perfect victim” have always been dismissed or attacked. “There’s this idea that a victim needs to be this sort of meek, quiet, complacent victim, so when someone fights back, uses a self-defense tactic, or God forbid, has an emotional reaction, we say, ‘Well, she can’t possibly be telling the truth,’” Kippert said.

Lies about mutual abuse ruin lives and, in Petito’s case, can kill. The Depp-Heard trial amplified this lie like never before and set victims’ rights and survivor justice movements back generations. It was never merely celebrity gossip, fodder for a slow news day for TMZ—it was the culmination of a years-long political war on victims’ rights, a war waged on all fronts: in electoral politics, in dinner-table family arguments about MeToo, and certainly, in the culture we consume.”]

kylie cheung, from survivor injustice: state-sanctioned abuse, domestic violence, and the fight for bodily autonomy, 2023

#kylie cheung #cw abuse #cw rape #currently reading

[subjugatingfeminists]

Introduction

I’m approaching 2,000 followers, so I figured I should add a more detailed introduction and maybe a mission statement of sorts 😏 First of all, this is an NSFW 18+ tumblr. That’s a hard rule. The block button is always there. Now you may be wondering things like, what is this tumblr about and how sexist is he really? Or, why does this guy come off like such a smartass and put so much effort into writing captions for porn reposts?

I’ll explain my thinking using the philosophy of Looney Tunes. Your typical MRA/red-pill/incel on here is Daffy Duck: loud, obnoxious, and completely lacking in self-awareness. And then there are men like me who are Bugs Bunny. If you watch closely, you’ll notice Bugs Bunny only fucks with those who have a ‘come-fuck-with-me’ vibe like Elmer Fudd. And I’m sorry to break it to you girls, but some of you are Elmer Fudd feminists. Don’t worry, it’s adorable 😘

I put effort into writing my captions because the brain really is the most important sex organ we have. Fucking each other online with our vocabularies is underrated, don’t you think? Most men on here shamelessly use their tumblr as a shorter route to women sending them titty pics like how those early explorers wanted to find the shortest possible route to Asia (guys, sorry to break it to you, but there is no true Northwest Passage on the internet). This is one of the few porn tumblrs on here that’s centered around an abstract idea: feminism versus patriarchy! It's a never-ending cultural 'tug of war' and this kink is for those with enough intellect to appreciate irony. Because ironically, this blog only works if you girls continue being feminists! However, it also means you have to put your feminism in a box and push it aside for a moment if you want to open up and consider why the pictures and themes of my blog make your panties so damp. Don’t be shy if you want to discuss theories on why your reactions betray your beliefs. We’re all anonymous on here, so how embarrassing is it really? Okay, it is very embarrassing, but that’s what makes it exciting, right? 😉

I’ve also made quite a few pen pals on here, so feel free to throw me a message about any interesting topic outside of sex like movies, music, politics, or history. And if my blog is ever destroyed by the Tumblr gods, then you’ll be able to find it resurrected with the same exact username with a number 1 after it. I’ve reposted less in recent months from being too busy, but I plan to return to the depravity this summer. Now here comes the exciting part!

I’ve been brainstorming on writing a long-term erotica that is based around a Patriarchal America setting, in which three feminist college students have three different, overlapping adventures in this new unexplored terrain. Absolutely no rights are taken away in the story, so no Handmaids Tale nonsense or any Stepford housewife robots. The story will include plenty of plot elements and themes that involve traditional gender roles, but it’s religiously secular. Since it begins with the 2028 election cycle, it will bring in real-life political dynamics and politicians, and briefly explain in the first chapter how a “Patriarchy Party” with a young charismatic JFK-esque candidate could use a unique policy position, effectively design and distribute propaganda, and take advantage of the electoral chessboard to defeat a Democrat and Republican at the polls (a certain orange-haired buffoon will be kicking and screaming out of the White House after losing his bid for a third-term). It will also have a twist ending that everyone might find surprising!

I want to brainstorm on this story with you girls! How well-written and stimulating can erotica potentially be? Can a male author write believable female characters when it involves a plot as strange as this? Let’s find out together. Bonus points if you fit the stereotypical feminist college student model and have any input. Speaking of which, I’ve received a lot of fan mail on here, but unfortunately I still have yet to come across the tumblr feminist of my dreams: the blue-haired, braless, feisty, fire-breathing gender studies major who wants to crush the patriarchy. I've never even met one in real life. Do these girls actually exist?? Maybe one day she’ll roll into my DMs and say “hi.”

[theblissfulstars]

Full Moon in Scorpio,April 23rd 2024

On Tuesday April 23rd, 7:49 p.m. Eastern standard Time, we are going to be experiencing a full moon in Scorpio.

This full moon is thematically aligned with motifs surrounding healing, rebirth and second chances.

With both the Moon in Scorpio and on the Ascendant, themes of rebirth, death and horror are highlighted prominently this full moon. We are going to be faced with crises surrounding our sense of security, home place and well-being. With a Mars ruled sign at the helm we can expect explosivity, volatility and violence to take center stage during and around this full moon. Mars for this full moon is currently in the fifth house conjunct Neptune and Saturn. Mars and Saturn are enemies, this energy creates a hyper focused, stressed, anxious and drained quality. There's a lot of pressure for success, and karmic influences on how we're spending our energy. This indicates major power plays and disruptions surrounding places of hegemonic power, governmental control and business. Throwing in Neptune, there is exacerbated delusions, violent fantasies, naval warfare and even abuse of substances leading to injury during this full moon.

Risk-taking behavior is not advisable during this full moon, nor is gambling as it can lead to an unnecessary expenditure of precious resources.

There is an incredibly heady, sensual, provocative and enticing energy to this full moon that made tempt you to physical action of a libidinous variety. This can make one impulsive or unwise and how they go about romantic and physical connections. This tension in this area can facilitate breakups, conflicts and issues in already established relationships. It could even prompt breakups with people who no longer resonate with your path.

Spiritually, this configuration is incredibly potent. With both Scorpio and Pisces heavily at play we're going to be having supernatural occurrences, visitations from the dead and otherworldly beings. If it is within your path, you are gently advised to seek counsel and/or blessings from the dead during this lunation and to listen to your intuition.

All of this intense and heavy energy is undergirded by the t-square configuration between the Moon, Pluto and the Sun. This t-square configuration is all about transformation and illumination of the darkest parts of the self. Symptoms of anxiety, depression and other mental ailments may be amplified during this full moon in order to force us to confront the parts of ourselves we may be ashamed of. There is an escalation here, as Pluto is mutiny, power shifts and dynamics the sun is authority figures and the moon is the people in electoral astrology. There may be an overthrowing of a government on or around this full moon that is quite significant.

This all sounds very frightening However this full moon as stated prior is all about healing, rebirth and second chances. With the Sun in Taurus in the 6th and mercury Rx in Aries in the 6th conjunct the NN, collectively, we're being given the opportunity at a second chance to cultivate health, healing and productivity in our environment and around us. This is a time of massive healing of the past, trauma and pain that we've gone through.

With Jupiter conjunct Uranus trining Ceres, we can expect a lot of monumental and positive changes in environmental procedure in conservation efforts, renewable energy and agriculture. Similarly, in the world of medicine the potential for revolutionary or experimental techniques arises, especially surrounding dietary science, the bones and herbal medicine.

All in all, this is a moon of healing and passion.

The cards for this full moon include: eight of swords, ten of wands, ace of pentacles, seven of wands.

Spirit acknowledges the collective malaise that has befallen the collective. However, this is a rather encouraging message that this moon will illuminate the bindings of our mind and liberate us from powerlessness. There's an opportunity for physical growth in some way for the collective and an acknowledgment that we are overwhelmed, overburdened and overworked. But with the seven of wands, do not give up! We are close to achieving something big. Keep going and keep having faith.

Workings-

•Healing

•Transformation

•renewal

•sex

•new love

•career

#astrology #zodiac #western astrology #horoscope #astrologer #divination #hoodoo #witchblr #full moon in scorpio #april 23rd #full moon in Scorpio April 23rd

[probablyasocialecologist]

There is a point — and an obvious one at that — to the ongoing demonization of trans identity, one that requires a full view of the organized Right’s goals, tactics, and coalition-building to see. From a political economic vantage, we might assess how and why trans people have become such a useful scapegoat — an object of blame and scorn — in what are ultimately efforts to insulate business interests from public accountability and to dismantle democracy’s ability to redistribute wealth to the many from the few. Unlike past essays for the Law and Political Economy Project and Boston Review in which I delineated the various economic incentives that drive capitalists into a mix of pro and anti-trans political projects (my next book tackles this subject further), this essay focuses mainly on those forces which consistently find trans scapegoating useful — even lucrative. The right-wing power bloc here has deep roots in fossil fuels, “dirty” manufacturing, large-scale family firms, and the usual array of financial and real estate interests and draws significant electoral support from small business owners and disaffected conservative Christian voters. Although my perspective is somewhat parochial, many of the coalitional dynamics and authoritarian aims are far from unique to the US. To the contrary, these appear to be an international phenomenon. Similar reactionary movements against gender-nonconforming people from Europe to South America to Africa (where US-based groups have been active for decades) dot the global landscape. The fight in Germany over gender recognition legal reforms has also brought together a similar coalition of far-right politicians, trans exclusionary radical feminists (TERFs), and religious parties and institutions. Accordingly, it is absolutely crucial to begin with asking questions about who benefits from the present assault on trans lives.

#lgbt #transgender #transphobia #conservatism

[kccinstitutes]

Visit to the Supreme Court of India

KCC Institute of Legal and Higher Education organized a visit to the Supreme Court of India for 1st and 2nd-year BBA LLB and BA LLB students. The purpose was to provide firsthand experience and exposure to the workings of India’s highest judicial institution, aiming to broaden their understanding of legal proceedings. The students were divided into seven groups to observe proceedings in different courts with varying bench compositions.

Notably, a Constitutional Bench led by Chief Justice Dhananjaya Yeshwant Chandrachud along with Associate Judges Mr. Justice Sanjiv Khanna, Mr. Justice B.R. Gavai, Mr. Justice J.B. Pardiwala, and Mr. Justice Manoj Misra, was in the process of hearing petitions challenging the legality of the “Electoral bonds scheme,” a mechanism that facilitates anonymous donations to political parties. The other benches were presided over by Honourable Judges, Mr. Justice Sanjay Kishan Kaul, Mr. Justice S. Sundresh Deppankar Das, Mr. Justice Suryakant Datta, Mr. Justice Bhushan Ramkrishna Gavai, Mr. Justice Aniruddha Bose, Ms. Justice Bela M. Trivedi and Justice Mr. Ujjal.

The visit aimed to complement theoretical knowledge with practical exposure, allowing students to interact with legal professionals, experience courtroom dynamics, and understand the application of laws in real cases. Interaction with members of the Bar Association provided practical insights into the legal profession, and students explored the Court's library and Museum to enrich their knowledge of legal history and resources. Overall, the visit intended to enhance students' legal education by immersing them in the real-world environment of the apex court.

[centrally-unplanned]

I think George Washington is a good ask here because there's a variety of different perspectives to evaluate him from, as well as insights into how each is considered to matter. Like, did he make the British colonies in North America more or less likely to become independent? Did he make the new state more or less secure? Was it a good or bad thing that the 13 colonies became independent? How good of a job do you think he did at whatever goals he personally had in mind? What did he have in mind, anyway - just rent-seeking for Virginian aristocrats or some more idealistic definition of "good" that bears resemblance to something we'd appreciate?

George Washington is a very interesting figure, because he is a classic "consensus leader" in some ways, but in an era where "consensus" is in fact very hard to come across and takes unique talent to be forged. I think we can bucket him: As a military leader he is only "fine": not bad, don't get me wrong, but he has no core tactical innovations or operational finesse on display. He certainly does deserve credit for his "wait them out" approach, and its true that he received political pressure from groups like the Continental Congress that he resisted. But this is a classic VOR moment: of course the distant, political actors demanded infeasible military action that the on-the-ground, faced-with-the-consequences-of-defeat guy would resist. That is a classic dynamic. Other generals in the war faced similar demands and similarly resisted. Again, he was an able commander, just nothing amazing.

I don't view him as being overly crucial in the core "state making" moments for the US in forming the constitution and all that- essentially the dynamics of the war of independence, the strength of their state rivals, and how the colonial economy functioned made a unified state the natural course. So here its not controversial to claim his VOR is pretty low.

However, I give him very high VOR for his presidency in the core process of interpreting that constitutional foundation through the lends of a strong federalized government with legalist, cohesive norms. He is not an innovator (people like Hamilton are doing that work) but he really was the One Guy In The Room who could bring the crazy factions together and stake his prestige on necessary tax reforms, financial reform, and crushing rebellion. VOR here matters - someone would have done something in the face of these, but the alt timeline is that states gain more and more autonomy. I think few people but Washington could have set the the federal government up as well as he.

So overall I would give him... lets go with A-, he plays a similar role as Lee Kuan Yew, if via very different tactics.

Demerits though for his lack of future planning on things like political parties & strong electoral politics. In that category he is pretty much VOR-less, he did what the default man would do and failed to exert any agency over it.

As for his own goals, he is very idealistic, and was actually, truly concerned with the idea of a strong, independent republic - he was born rich, he could afford to do that of course. And vis a vis slavery the strength of the union and the federal government was the only way it would be ended in the south on the timeline it was. The process of abolition in the south was very much a product of northern abolitionists forcing change onto resisting foreign polities. Colonizing them, if you will, with their own culture & systems. So he was a net good for this cause, even if it was not at all his own personal agenda.

#vore debates

[mariacallous]

Turkish politics is interesting again. For years, Turkey’s opposition was moribund. Under the leadership of Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) had trouble attracting more than 25 percent to 30 percent of voters.

Then suddenly, last weekend, the opposition broke through. It’s not just that the CHP held on to mayoralties in big cities such as Ankara, Izmir, and Istanbul, where the sitting mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, has established himself as the most dynamic Turkish politician since President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was himself mayor in the mid-1990s. Making matters worse for the Turkish leader, the CHP and other parties soundly defeated mayors from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in 15 other municipalities.

Just five years ago, the AKP’s orange almost entirely covered Turkey’s local electoral map across a wide belt from east to west and in a mostly uninterrupted swath from north to south in the middle of Anatolia. Now the party controls barely contiguous blots of orange from 15 provinces stretching from the northeast to the central part of the country where it hits a thick wall of CHP red. And despite Erdogan’s best efforts to undermine Kurdish politicians, the purple of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM) dominates the southeastern quadrant of Anatolia. The royal blue of the fascist-adjacent Nationalist Movement Party appears as eight disparate splotches across the landscape. Although pictures allegedly tell a thousand words, the Turkish electoral map needs just one: drubbing.

Yet the results of Sunday’s vote were unexpected. Not because the AKP is strong. It is, in fact, a shell of the dynamic party with a compelling vision of Turkey’s future that it once was. That AKP is long gone. Rather, Erdogan and his party have been able to prevail over the last dozen or so years because he has become a practiced and shrewd authoritarian who leveraged the press, the courts, and parliamentary procedure to make it more difficult for the opposition to compete. He also employed a fair amount of intimidation and violence against opponents.

It is a testament to the political fortitude of Turks and the continuing strength of Turkey’s democratic practices—without the country actually qualifying as a democracy—that people still came out in droves last weekend to register their disapproval of Erdogan and the AKP. At least for the moment, Turkish voters have tempered the idea that the current age is one of illiberalism in which non-democratic leaders can leverage seemingly democratic institutions to advance anti-democratic agendas and consolidate their power. Erdogan was at the leading edge of this phenomenon (even before Hungary’s Viktor Orban became the poster boy for electoral authoritarianism) but now confronts the most serious rebuke of his political career. For the first time in many years, without stretching credulity analysts can imagine what a post-AKP Turkey might look like.

It is actually worse for Erdogan than one thinks. While there are plenty of losers in Sunday’s election, there is really only one clear winner: Imamoglu. Imamoglu scored a thumping 51 percent victory against the AKP’s Murat Kurum, who received 39 percent. This result was not, in fact, a race between Imamoglu and Kurum; it was a contest between Imamoglu and Erdogan. In his effort to support Kurum, Erdogan employed every strategy, including sending 17 cabinet ministers to campaign in the city, as well as making numerous appearances himself. The pro-Erdogan media did their best not to provide coverage of Imamoglu out on the hustings. None of this prevented him gaining one out of two votes in a race where more than 8 million citizens voted, however. The mayor’s reelection represents his third consecutive victory (twice in 2019) in contests with Erdogan’s hand-picked candidates and, for the AKP, the most worrying.

Imamoglu is the political rival the Turkish president fears most, and he is the most likely to challenge Erdogan for the presidency, currently scheduled for 2028. His 51 percent result far exceeds the national support for the CHP. It is hard not to wonder, had Imamoglu been at the top of the opposition’s ticket during the May 2023 presidential election instead of the hapless Kilicdaroglu, how different Turkey might look today. It is plausible that last Sunday, President Imamoglu would have congratulated the opposition on a strong showing. Imamoglu’s victory over Kurum was about the same percentage difference (~10 percent) that Imamoglu was projected to win the presidency had he been the nominee to challenge Erdogan.

Whether Imamoglu will be in a position to face off against Erdogan remains an open question, though. Imamoglu could be banned from holding political office if a frivolous lawsuit that a prosecutor filed against him in 2019 is upheld by an appeals court. If the court upholds the lower court’s decision, it will prevent Imamoglu from running against Erdogan or remaining mayor of Istanbul.

Given the vehemence with which Erdogan had vowed to retake Istanbul and Ankara ever since those cities were lost to the opposition, it is shocking that Erdogan failed. But it is not necessarily surprising. The AKP fielded terrible mayoral candidates who lacked charisma and were perceived to be out of touch with voter sentiment. To compensate for the AKP’s C-team lineup, Erdogan assumed a role of campaigner-in-chief and attempted to be the candidate behind the candidate in many mayoral races. Powerful may be Erdogan’s rhetorical skills, but they could not make up for the crushing economic conditions felt by citizens, notably consumer inflation over 120 percent.

Behind the tough economic times, it seems that after almost 22 years, Erdogan and the AKP have worn out their welcome. Long gone on the stump is Erdogan’s positive vision of Turkey’s future. In its place are a bevy of threats bellowing to crowds that if they did not vote for the AKP, then he would suspend local government services. The bad candidates, the terrible economy, and Erdogan’s bellicosity all came crashing down on Sunday. Not only did Imamoglu romp in Istanbul, but the CHP incumbent in Ankara, Mansur Yavas, crushed his AKP opponent by almost 30 points, and the opposition turned over what were thought to be AKP strongholds throughout the country.

Can Erdogan do anything to turn this grim picture around? It seems unlikely. A man who has always rebounded from political downturns, like the coup attempt (2016) and the Gezi Park protests (2013), appears to be politically weakened beyond repair. In the early hours of April Fools’ Day, Erdogan delivered a concession speech in Ankara, which many TV channels switched away from, as Imamoglu began his victory speech in Istanbul at the same time. While Erdogan looked deflated and worn, Imamoglu was full of energy, addressing a jubilant sea of voters. Yet Erdogan was not prepared to take the defeat lying down. Just hours after the election,  sought to block the winner in the city of Van’s mayoral race==from the Kurdish-based DEM Party—in favor of the AKP candidate who lost badly.  Violence broke out until  the High Election Board demonstrated atypical spine in the face of Erdogan’s pressure and recognized the rightful winner.

Going forward, there are not many good options for Erdogan. If he taps the court to ban Imamoglu, this could result in a massive public backlash, well beyond the boundaries of Istanbul. Similarly, removing Imamoglu does not alter the CHP-dominated electoral map of Turkey that has appeared. True, these were local elections and not necessarily determinative of a national race, but Erdogan would not risk an early presidential race now. Attempting to reset the AKP to its factory settings and returning to 2002 will not work. The entire AKP brand is tarnished by corruption, arrogance, and Erdogan’s authoritarianism. Never count Erdogan out, but it does seem that Turkey is on the cusp of a new era. Erdogan will cling to office, but it seems clear that the future now lies with Imamoglu.

[theculturedmarxist]

In the first days of 2023, the reactionary and repulsive dynamic of American capitalist politics has been on full display.

For decades, the following process has played out time and time again: No matter how small its numerical presence, the far-right wing of the Republican Party dominates, the Democratic Party adapts in the name of “bipartisanship,” and its “left” flank capitulates without a fight in the name of “unity against the right.” As a result, the political axis of bourgeois politics moves to the right, and the process repeats itself. Each episode is more degrading than the last.

To socialists, this spectacle demonstrates that imperialism is reaction all down the line and that a movement of the working class is necessary to sweep both parties out of power and enact the revolutionary transformation of society.

To the Democratic Socialists of America, it is another opportunity to promote the tired fiction that the Democratic Party can be pushed to the left.

On January 7, Jacobin published an article by DSA member Neal Meyer entitled “The right played hardball in Congress. The left should take notes.”

As the title suggests, the article argues that socialists should pressure “progressive” congresspersons to “use the bully pulpit” and “fight” the Democratic Party leadership “just as hard as the right does against their leadership.” Meyer writes, “We should be prepared to go to war against Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries and others…”

Meyer asserts that this is the strategy of the DSA: “Democratic socialists use electoral politics and our position in legislatures to build our popular base,” “spread democratic socialist ideas” and “rally millions to a program of transformational change.”

As a preliminary matter, the DSA’s record in Congress is not rallying anyone for transformational change, except in the negative sense. The DSA’s representatives have used their electoral positions to illegalize railroad strikes, fund the Israeli military and provide the American military industrial complex with tens of billions of dollars to wage the US-NATO war against Russia, risking nuclear catastrophe.  

Meyer papers over these votes, writing, “As Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has said in the past, in any other country she would not be in the same party as Joe Biden. That has never been more clear than in the aftermath of Joe Biden’s decision to crush railroad workers’ right to strike to win paid leave.”

This is an unfortunate example, given the fact that Ocasio-Cortez and the rest of the DSA slate (save Rashida Tlaib) voted “to crush railroad workers’ right to strike to win paid leave.” There is a reason why Ocasio-Cortez and Biden are in the same party: The DSA plays a critical role in this sordid right-wing process, by trapping social opposition within the Democratic Party where it can be suffocated and eliminated.

Jacobin’s article is yet another example of this role. Meyer writes in a manner which makes clear the DSA is sensitive to the growing realization of the true role played by Ocasio-Cortez and her DSA cohorts. He presents the relationship between the DSA and the Democratic Party leadership as follows: “We ought to sit very uncomfortably inside the Democratic fold. It is, at best, a temporary and fraught marriage of necessity, one that we should want to exit as soon as possible.”

This is a falsification of the relationship between the DSA’s own congressional members and the Democratic leadership, as evidenced by the recent speakership fight. The DSA’s representatives unanimously voted for Democratic House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries on every round in last week’s leadership contest, despite Jeffries’ 2021 statement that “there will never be a moment where I bend the knee to hard-left democratic socialism.” In fact, Jeffries started a Political Action Committee (Team Blue) specifically to oppose left-wing challengers to Democratic incumbents. Even so, he won the votes of all those he is trying to unseat.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, confronting growing left-wing opposition to her subservience to the Democratic Party, gave an explanation which was as revealing as it was pathetic. “I see some people say Dems should negotiate to get concessions,” she said in a social media post this week. “We do, but what we don’t do is bring them publicly in order to empower not just Republicans but the fascist flank of the Republican Party.”

This statement tracks with her record in Congress: The class struggle must be suppressed for the sake of the institutional security of the imperialist Democratic Party and the Biden administration. For this same reason Ocasio-Cortez and the DSA’s congressional representatives illegalized the rail strike and denounced left-wing criticism of Biden as “privileged” and racist.

In comments to MSNBC responding to the Republican speakership fight, Ocasio-Cortez confirmed the DSA’s role, saying, “What was important today was to send the message that we were united behind Hakeem Jeffries as the new minority leader, that there would be no defections, that Democrats are here, we’re not going anywhere.”

Undermining her own claim about the efficacy of secret negotiations, she pledged the Democratic Party would “stay 100 percent united” no matter what, adding, “We absolutely have differences,” but she is “willing to put that aside.”

Here, Ocasio-Cortez has accidentally told the truth. For the sake of the stability of the Democratic Party, the Democratic Socialists of America is willing to put aside its differences with the establishment, however minor they may be, by backing a party leader who has pledged to ignore them until he can remove them from Congress.  

There is nothing unexpected or unusual in this behavior. Ocasio-Cortez and the rest of the DSA’s slate are not socialists, they are conformist politicians, and they are acting in conformity with the DSA’s political essence as a pro-imperialist faction of the Democratic Party.

The DSA exists not to extract reforms from the Democratic establishment, but to trap social opposition and channel it behind the Democratic Party. Only an organization with such a long practice in pseudo-socialist gymnastics could try to present Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s concessions to the far right as a rallying cry for reforming the two-party system from within.

#alexandria ocasio cortez #AOC #democrats #democratic socialists of america #class traitors #us politics #us political corruption