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#china as an emerging superpower
egnaroo · 2 years
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Will The US be the only superpower in the world until 2050; what do geopolitical analytics say and 05 key reasons and what to hope
Will The US be the only superpower in the world until 2050; what do geopolitical analytics say and 05 key reasons and what to hope
The end of world war Ⅱ made world order change and out from the ashes came a new impartial superpower. Colonial powers mainly British Superpowers had ended and the US was pressured as the only Nuclear power and winner of war to end colonial rule while giving them freedom in political economic and social structures as the American dream the nations got the chance to build their paths. The US…
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emergingpakistan · 8 months
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برکس اتحاد عالمی معیشت کے لیے کتنا مفید ؟
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جب دوسری عالمی جنگ کے خاتمے کے بعد امریکا اور سوویت یونین کے مابین چھڑنے والی سرد جنگ میں دونوں بڑی طاقتیں چھوٹے ممالک کو اپنے اپنے کیمپ میں لانے کے لیے طرح طرح سے رجھا رہی تھیں تو اس دباؤ سے تنگ آ کے انیس سو پچپن میں سوئیکارنو کی دعوت پر تیسری دنیا کے چوٹی کے رہنما انڈونیشیا کے شہر بنڈونگ میں جمع ہوئے۔ انھوں نے منٹو کے افسانے ٹوبہ ٹیک سنگھ کے مرکزی کردار کی طرح فیصلہ کیا کہ وہ اس سرد جنگ میں امریکا کی یا سوویت یونین کا ساتھ دینے کے بجائے غیر جانبداریت کے درخت پر رہیں گے۔ نعرہ اچھا تھا مگر اس تحریک کے بیشتر رہنماؤں اور ممالک کا جھکاؤ غیر اعلانیہ طور پر یا تو سوویت کیمپ کی جانب تھا یا پھر مغربی کیمپ کی جانب۔ آپ چاہیں تو اس دعوی کی تصدیق کے لیے غیر جانبدار تحریک کے رکن ممالک کی سوویت و امریکا نواز فہرست دیکھ لیں۔ غیر جانبدار تنظیم انیس سو اکسٹھ میں سابق یوگو سلاویہ کے مردِ آہن مارشل ٹیٹو کی میزبانی میں قائم ہوئی۔ نمایاں مہمانوں میں سوئکارنو، جمال ناصر ، نکروما اور نہرو تھے۔ یہ تنظیم بہت تیزی سے مقبول ہوئی اور دیکھتے ہی دیکھتے اقوامِ متحدہ کے بعد سب سے بڑی تنظیم بن گئی جس میں ایک سو بیس ممالک بطور ممبر، سترہ ممالک اور دس بین الاقوامی تنظیمیں بطور مبصر شامل ہوئیں۔ 
اس تنظیم کی انیس سو اسی کی دہائی تک بہت دھاک تھی۔ مگر پھر شاید اس کا حجم ہی اس کی راہ میں سب سے بڑی رکاوٹ بنتا چلا گیا۔ نوے کی دہائی میں سرد جنگ ختم ہو گئی تو غیر جانبدار تحریک کا نام بھی الگ تھلگ ہوتا چلا گیا۔ چنانچہ گزشتہ روز یہ خبر سن کے میں اچھل پڑا کہ اس تنظیم کا وجود نہ صرف برقرار ہے بلکہ آنے والے جنوری میں غیر جانبدار ممالک کی تنظیم کی کانفرنس یوگنڈا کے دارالحکومت کمپالا میں ہو رہی ہے۔ بلاک سیاست رہی نہ سوویت یونین رہا۔ چین اور امریکا کی کش مکش دو نظریاتی طاقتوں کے بجائے دو سپر پاورز کی اقتصادی رسہ کشی ہے۔ چنانچہ غیرجانبدار تحریک بزرگوں کی یادگار کے طور پر آج بھی سانس لے رہی ہے تو بڑی بات ہے۔ ایسی کئی تنظیمیں ہیں جو ایک خاص نظریاتی، اسٹرٹیجک، سیاسی ماحول میں قائم ہوئیں اور جب زمانہ و ترجیحات بدلیں تو بے دم ہو گئیں۔ مثلاً پہلی عالمی جنگ کے بعد قائم ہونے والی لیگ آف نیشنز ہو کہ جس کی راکھ سے اقوامِ متحدہ نے جنم لیا۔ یا پھر سرد جنگ کے سبب قائم ہونے والے سیٹو ، سینٹو اور وارسا پیکٹ جیسے اتحاد ہوں۔
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عرب لیگ اگرچہ اقوامِ متحدہ کے بعد سب سے پرانی تنظیم ہے لیکن یہ کبھی بھی کوئی ٹھوس نقش نہیں چھوڑ سکی۔ یہی حال اسلامی کانفرنس کی تنظیم کا ہے۔ ہمارے خطے میں ساٹھ کی دہائی میں پاکستان، ایران اور ترکی کی تنظیم آر سی ڈی کے تحت کئی اقتصادی منصوبے شروع ہوئے۔ آج واحد نشانی کراچی تا کوئٹہ آر سی ڈی ہائی وے ہے۔ نئی نسل آر سی ڈی کے بارے میں صرف درسی کتابوں کی حد تک جانتی ہے۔ انیس سو اسی کی دہائی میں سارک کو جنوبی ایشیا میں بطور گیم چینجر متعارف کروایا گیا۔ خطے میں تعاون کے امکانات اچھے خاصے تھے۔ مگر اس کی افادیت بھارت اور پاکستان کی ضد بحث کی نذر ہو گئی۔ واحد ترکہ سارک یونیورسٹی کی شکل میں سانس لے رہا ہے۔ یا پھر سارک کے چھوٹے ارکان نے کچھ عرصے کے لیے شہریوں کو ویزا میں تھوڑی بہت باہمی رعائتیں دیں۔ چین کے روڈ اینڈ بیلٹ منصوبے اور شنگھائی تعاون کونسل کے ہوتے سارک کے دوبارہ فعال ہونے کا امکان اور بھی کم ہو گیا۔
اس وقت جو اجتماعی تنظیمیں واقعی فعال ہیں۔ ان میں سرِ فہرست ناٹو، یورپی یونین ، او ای سی ڈی ، جی سیون ، جی ٹوینٹی ، افریقی اتحاد کی تنظیم او اے یو ، خلیج تعاون کونسل اور آسیان قابلِ ذکر ہیں۔ ان کی فعالیت کا راز ٹھوس مشترکہ اقتصادی وا سٹرٹیجک مفادات ہیں۔ گویا بیسویں صدی کی نظریاتی دنیا کے برعکس اکیسویں صدی میں دشمنی و تعاون کا معیار معاشی مسابقت اور یہ بنیادی سوال ہے کہ ’’ مجھے اس اتحاد کا رکن بننے سے کیا کیا اقتصادی و دفاعی فائدہ ہو گا۔‘‘ اس پس منظر میں گزشتہ ہفتے جنوبی افریقہ کے شہر جوہانسبرگ میں برکس کے سربراہ اجلاس نے میڈیا کی خاصی توجہ حاصل کی اور یہ سوالات اٹھائے گئے کہ کیا یہ اتحاد ایک نیا مالیاتی نظام تشکیل دے کے مغرب کے زیرِ نگیں موجودہ بریٹن وڈ عالمی نظام کا متبادل ثابت ہو کے عالمی معیشت کو ڈالرائزیشن کی قید سے نجات دلا کے اپنی کوئی اجتماعی کرنسی متعارف کروا پائے گا۔ 
برکس کی بنیاد دو ہزار نو میں برازیل ، بھارت ، چین اور روس نے رکھی اور اگلے برعکس جنوبی افریقہ پانچواں رکن بن گیا۔ برکس کے یہ پانچوں سوار تیز رفتار ترقی کرنے والی معیشتوں کی تنظیم جی ٹوئنٹی میں بھی شامل تھے اور اپنے تئیں بھی عالمی پیداوار میں ان کا اجتماعی حصہ چھبیس فیصد اور عالمی تجارت میں بیس فیصد کے لگ بھگ ہے۔ دنیا کی آٹھ ارب میں سے ساڑھے تین ارب سے زائد انسان انھیں پانچوں ممالک میں آباد ہیں۔ مگر عالمی معاشی فیصلوں میں ان کا اجتماعی اثر حجم کے اعتبار سے بہت کم ہے۔ مثلاً آئی ایم ایف میں پانچ بنیادی برکس ممالک کی ووٹنگ پاور محض پندرہ فیصد ہے۔ بیشتر ووٹنگ پاور جی سیون ممالک کو حاصل ہے۔ یہی تناسب عالمی بینک میں بھی ہے۔ دو ہزار پندرہ میں باہمی تجارت کے لیے برکس بینک قائم کیا گیا۔ اس کا ہیڈکوارٹر شنگھائی میں ہے۔ ڈالر کی گرفت ڈھیلی کرنے کے لیے مشترکہ تجارت مقامی کرنسی میں کرنے کے خیال کو عملی جامہ پہنایا جا رہا ہے۔ چنانچہ روس اور چین کی تجارت روبل اور یوآن میں ہو رہی ہے۔ انڈیا روسی تیل کی ادائیگی روپے میں کرتا ہے۔ امارات اور انڈیا تجارت میں ڈالر کے ساتھ ساتھ روپے اور درہم کو بھی قبول کر رہے ہیں۔
مگر مسئلہ یہ ہے کہ آج کی دنیا میں کوئی ملک بھلے کتنا ہی طاقت ور کیوں نہ ہو ڈیڑھ اینٹ کی مسجد نہیں بنا سکتا۔ چین اور بھارت میں فوجی تصادم کے نتیجے میں گزشتہ تین برس سے کشیدہ تعلقات کے باوجود باہمی تجارت سوا سو بلین ڈالر سے اوپر ہے۔ دونوں طاقتیں شنگھائی تعاون کونسل ، ہارٹ آف ایشیا ، جی ٹوئنٹی اور برکس کی چھتری تلے ایک دوسرے سے تعاون پر مجبور ہیں۔ بھارت کو روس کا تیل بھی چاہیے اور امریکی ٹیکنالوجی بھی۔ برازیل اور جنوبی افریقہ ایک آزاد خارجہ پالیسی پر عمل پیرا ہونا چاہتے ہیں مگر ان کی بیشتر تجارت امریکا اور یورپ سے ہے۔ برکس میں مزید چالیس ممالک شامل ہونے میں دلچسپی لے رہے ہیں۔ ان میں سے تئیس نے رکنیت کے لیے تحریری درخواست دی ہے۔ پہلے مرحلے میں سعودی عرب ، متحدہ عرب امارات ، ایران ، مصر ، ایتھوپیا اور ارجنٹینا کو رکنیت مل گئی ہے۔ یوں برکس پانچ سے گیارہ تک پہنچ گئی ہے۔ مگر ان میں سوائے ایران کے باقی ممالک کی معیشتیں مغرب سے جڑی ہوئی ہیں۔ برکس کی رکنیت سے البتہ ایران کی بین الاقوامی تنہائی کم ہو گی۔
چین کی کوششوں سے یو اے ای ، سعودی عرب اور ایران کے مابین تعلقات معمول پر آنے کے بعد سے برکس میں چین کا وزن بھی بڑھا ہے۔ پوتن اپنی اسٹرٹیجک اور معاشی مصلحتوں کے تحت ویسے ہی چین کی بات ماننے پر مجبور ہیں۔ جرائم سے متعلق بین الاقوامی عدالت نے یوکرین میں جنگی جرائم کے الزامات میں پوتن کے وارنٹ نکال رکھے ہیں لہٰذا وہ ملک سے باہر زیادہ نقل و حرکت کا خطرہ مول نہیں لے سکتے۔ یہ اتحاد اگر چین اور بھارت کا سرحدی جھگڑا ختم کروانے اور رکن ممالک کے مابین آنے والے برسوں میں تجارتی حجم بڑھانے میں کامیاب ہو جاتا ہے تو کچھ امید بندھے گی کہ اس میں دم ہے۔ ورنہ ہم نے بڑے بڑے اتحاد دو یا تین غالب ممالک کی کھینچا تانی میں ٹوٹتے بگڑتے دیکھے ہیں۔ اگر چین اور بھارت کے تعلقات نارمل ہوئے تو اس کا مثبت اثر پاک بھارت تعلقات پر بھی پڑ سکتا ہے۔ نائجیریا اور انڈونیشیا جیسی ابھرتی ہوئی معیشتیں بھی برکس میں شامل ہونا چاہتی ہیں مگر فی الحال انھیں اتنی عجلت بھی نہیں۔ یہ ممالک دیکھنا چاہتے ہیں کہ پانچ رکنی تنظیم گیارہ رکنی ہونے کے بعد اور مضبوط ہوتی ہے یا کمزور۔ اس اتحاد کو وسائل کی کمی نہیں۔ وسائل کا مشترکہ استعمال اصل چیلنج ہے۔
وسعت اللہ خان 
بشکریہ ایکسپریس نیوز
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damnesdelamer · 1 year
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‘Socialism has never worked’?
What do you call Russia, China, and Cuba functionally eradicating homelessness and illiteracy in their respective spheres within a few years of the massive upheaval of revolution, and radically improving the living conditions of millions after generations of poverty? What do you call the Soviet Union bearing the brunt of the greatest military conflict the world has ever seen and emerging victorious? What do you call the Soviet Union holding out for four decades of sustained military and economic warfare against the greatest military and economic superpower the world has ever known? What do you call Vietnam defeating the greatest military empire the world has ever known in its anti-imperialist resistance campaign? What do you call China emerging from the 20th Century as the most populous country on earth with the highest GDP? What do you call China reducing daily covid numbers to double digits in a population of 1.4 billion? What do you call Cuba thriving after six decades of brutal embargoes? What do you call Cuba passing the most progressive and practically protective legislation for family and LGBT rights in a world historical moment marked by increased LGBTphobia among the Western powers? What do you call the people of Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Eastern Europe shrugging off the muck of ages to usher in an era of progress, all while Western powers conspire to sabotage them at every turn while growing fat off the earth they’ve scorched?
I’d ask what history books you’re reading, but I know that you’re not reading any, and the only information you have on the subject is spoon-fed into your colonised mind by the people’s enemies, whose vested interest in fabricating events is readily apparent to any who bother to look into these things.
‘Socialism has never worked’? It has been one of the dominant political-economic models of the past century, and has made drastic strides on every front despite its relative infancy and constant opposition from Western superpowers. If you fear socialism, what do you really fear? Socialism is the people. Socialism is me; socialism is you; socialism is all of us, together.
‘Socialism has never worked’? Socialism has always worked. Socialism is working right now. We will see socialism work again, always.
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zvaigzdelasas · 3 months
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China’s economy is currently on the operating table, hunched over by surgeons, chest cavity splayed open, hooked up to a cardiopulmonary machine, surrounded by nurses staring at monitors flashing vital signs. It all looks rather grim.
This surgery, however, is not an emergency bypass. That would be too easy. China has had many of those already – stimulus packages, grand infrastructure projects and many rounds of directed lending.
Every two decades or so, going all the way back to the founding of the PRC in 1949, the surgeons get ambitious. These guys are mad scientists attempting a comic book trope – to create the ultimate superhero.
They want to inject super serum, replace skeletal calcium with adamantium and dose the patient with gamma rays, giving China the powers of shazams out the wazoo.[...]
In the lamented “pre-reform” era, China’s mad scientists engineered spectacular growth by increasing investment from a prewar 6% of GDP to 20% in the first Five-Year Plan, covering 1952-1957. This led industrial output to register a compound annual growth rate.
The Great Leap Forward accelerated this growth to 66% in 1958 and 39% in 1959 before crashing and burning in 1961 when mismanagement of communal farms and “backyard blast furnaces” caught up with the mad scientists.
Course correction starting in 1962 recovered all lost ground by 1965. According to economist Cheng Chu-Yuan, China’s GDP growth averaged 11% between 1952 and 1966, the eve of the Cultural Revolution. (T. C. Liu of Cornell and K. C. Yeh of the Rand Corporation have a lower estimate: 8%.)
More importantly, China built a full kit of infrastructure, machinery and equipment capable of driving future industrialization.[...]
Many analysts have a tabula rasa understanding of China’s reform era, as if there had been no economy before Deng Xiaoping. In reality, China’s industrialization started right after the formation of the PRC with some of the fastest growth recorded in the 1950’s and 1960’s. Even during the “low growth” Cultural Revolution, resources directed towards public health (for example, barefoot doctors) and primary education doubled life expectancy and quadrupled adult literacy by 1980 from pre-PRC levels.
The mad scientists are now at it again. They have about twenty years of new data not just on China but from the rest of the world. When Zhu Rongji was head surgeon, history had ended and markets reigned supreme. This time around, the surgeons are correcting for market irrationality and negative externalities. The next twenty years is again being determined on the operating table.
Three years ago, the surgeons pried open China’s chest cavity with the three red lines credit limits, instantly seizing the speculation driven property sector. Since then, they ripped out unnecessary organs like education companies, clamped the Ant Financial artery and eviscerated the video game industry. All of this has caused spasms in vital signs from lackluster growth to rising youth unemployment. Wondering whether China will or will not stimulate the economy next quarter or next year is missing the forest from the trees. For the next few years, China’s economy will still be under the knife and whatever adjustments will merely be anesthesiologists and technicians nominally dialing the drugs up and down and adjusting the heart-lung machine to maintain vital signs.
What are these mad scientists trying to achieve? We believe President Xi Jinping’s 2020 target of doubling China’s GDP by 2035 stands. That is an average growth rate of 4.7% for 15 years. But beyond just a numerical target, it is important to figure out what superpowers China is trying to acquire. And just as importantly, what Kryptonite factors China is attempting to inoculate itself against.
China wants America’s Silicon Valley, but regulated; Japan’s car companies, but electrified; Germany’s Mittelstand, but scalable; and Korea’s chaebol conglomerates, but without political capture. It wants to lead the world in science and technology, but without cram schools. A thriving economy, but with common prosperity. Industry, without air pollution. Digital lifestyle, without gaming addiction. Material plenty, without hedonism. Modernity, without its ills. This is, of course, a wish-list and unrealistically ambitious. But these mad scientists sure as hell are going to try. They’ve developed a taste for it.
In college, early into the semester, we went through a ritual called course exchange. Students gathered in an auditorium to swap classes after sampling lectures for three weeks – satisfaction was not guaranteed. The strategy passed down to underclassmen applied to both course exchange and significant others: “Add before you drop.”
China is undergoing – but perhaps botching – the same process with a more party-esque slogan, “Establish the new before abolishing the old.”
The surgeons have been on a tear gutting the old. The big kahuna is, of course, the property sector. But right behind are platform monopolies, private education, financial services and video games. The new has been playing catch-up, with 5G equipment, electric vehicles, photovoltaics and wind turbines being leading examples.
From all appearances, the Industrial Party is in ascendance and China will double down on climbing the manufacturing value chain. The Industrial Party is a political identity that believes industry, science and technology should determine China’s future. Adherents believe that China’s strength lie in the technical skills of her population and thus favor hard-science, high-tech industries as opposed to services and business model innovations.
Therefore, Chinese politicians, whatever their predisposition, must find a way to create space for this next generation of scientists and technicians to develop themselves. They cannot be confined to a production line at a Foxconn plant. Maintaining social stability means finding a use for future scientists and technicians, which means pursuing industrialization. Is there any other way? The key variable for determining the course of China’s future development is thus the massive number of talented technical and scientific workers.
If mistakes were made, it would have been in sequencing and in faith – dropping before adding is a poor strategy in both love and course exchange. China’s mad scientists may have been too confident that electric vehicles and renewable energy would be followed quickly by semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and commercial aircraft.
Perhaps they have reason to be confident. Planning for this surgery has been in the works since 2015 with the Made in China 2025 project. China has been steadily eroding imports of high value added intermediary goods like batteries, precision parts and electrical components, flipping trade with South Korea from deficit to surplus.[...]
China never properly transitioned from its Soviet era Material Product System (MPS) of national accounts to the United Nation’s System of National Accounts (UNSNA) standard, leaving out much of services from reported GDP.
We calculate that China accounts for 22-24% of global GDP and 20-23% of global consumption. We also calculate that household consumption is 50-55% of China’s GDP, in line with global averages. China should easily be able to grow at 4.7% through 2035 with only a modest increase in consumption’s GDP share (5 percentage points over 10 years) without upsetting global economic balances.
In the reform period prior to Xi, everything was sacrificed at the altar of economic growth. In the new era, growth has been walked down from 9.6% in 2011 to an average of 4.7% in the Covid years (2020-2023) as an increasing litany of issues were given precedence. Debt however, soared over this time from 175% of GDP to over 300%. What exactly did all that debt buy?
When Xi assumed leadership of China, he declared that inequality could not be allowed to increase further. Inequality is perhaps the major Kryptonite factor of the American economy which China wasted no time in matching as the economy roared with market reforms.
While still problematic, inequality, as measured by the Gini coefficient, has steadily fallen since 2010 largely as a result of massive investment in urbanization, pushing people into cities and pushing cities up the tiering ladder.[...]
China also poured resources into stamping out last-mile poverty. While most poverty alleviation in China was through economic growth, recalcitrant extremely poverty could only be eradicated by concentrated marshaling of resources, from relocating entire villages to weekly visits by social workers.[...]
Since peaking in 2012, air pollution in Beijing has been cut by over 60%, with Shanghai falling over 50%. China, which used to dominate the list of most polluted cities, now only claims one spot in the top 20. None of this came cheap, from installing scrubbers in smoke stacks to increasing renewables to moving heavy industry to strict emissions regulations for cars.[...]
Before Hu Jintao handed the reins to Xi, Hu warned delegates to the 18th Party Congress in 2012 that “[corruption] could prove fatal to the party… and [cause] the fall of the state.” The popular opinion in the West is that Xi ended China’s highly successful reform era because of an ideological bent. This is off the mark. Xi was brought in to clean house as the wheels were coming off from excesses of the reform era.
Throughout Xi’s decade in office, there has been no letup in his anti-corruption campaign. In 2022, a record 638,000 officials were punished for corruption. While there haven’t been any large scale ideological appeals to the public, it’s a different story within the 98-million-member party.
During this time, free market capitalism and liberal democracies also faced their own existential tests. Success or failure going forward will depend on whether liberal institutions remain intact in the West and whether party discipline can be maintained in China. What the PRC has had since 1949 is a governing party with the political autonomy to play mad scientist. [...]
Of course we live in the real world, not a comic-book world. The question in the real world has always been whether the economy can be engineered by mad scientists from the top down or is it best left to the invisible hand of the market? [...]
The standard economic opinion – against all evidence – is that China was economically stagnant before Deng’s market reforms. The thinking on this for the American economys is undergoing a transformation in egghead land – just how has neoliberal economics benefitted the American people over the past few decades?
In a Q&A exchange at a conference in Malaysia, Eric Li, the barbed-tongued venture capitalist, was asked, “Do you think top-down directives are sustainable in the long run?” To which he replied, “It’s the only thing that’s sustainable.… That’s why America is failing today.” After World War II, Li said, the Americans “lost the ability to do top-down design.”
Dec 2023
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legalkimchi · 6 months
Text
Geopolitics is not what you think.
It is interesting to me that how we view issues of global politics and how academics and certain political actors view the issues have such a huge separation.
For instance, when people view the russian invasion of ukraine, they think of a simple power grab, or they don't understand why russia would want to do that.
When i was talking to a friend, who is a geopolitical expert, about the russian war against ukraine, he pulled out a topographical map of europe. Geopolitics is the study of how geography affects politics. it is NOT a general term for international politics.
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The easy answer is Russia's need for a warm water port. If you know russia's borders, you would know that all of it's major ports are in the north and they freeze in the winter. They don't have a good port in the black sea that stays unfrozen. Sevastopol is the port in Crimea. While technically Ukrainian territory, it has been controlled by Russia since 2014.
The second point he made was looking at the moutains. See the map above. Then let's look at a map of the warsaw pact
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Understanding moutain ranges and how they are defensible, you start to see why NATO and the Warsaw pact involved those specific countries. it creates a natural bottle neck in Germany. This also goes into why Poland gets invaded so much. it is a flat territory without natural boundaries that makes it easy to attack, and if you want your border to be a mountain you have to go through Poland. Without the countries to make up its borders anymore, Russia lacks natural boundaries. Instead of the carpathian mountains, they have simple grassland.
Then you talk to demographers as to why russia is aggressive, you see that since the end of the cold war, russia's death rate has exceeded it's birth rate. this causes a decline in population and a "demographic crisis." the average age in russia is over 40 years old. this stagnation has rippling effects throughout the country. with an older workforce, they don't have a surplus younger generation to pay for the care of the older generation. they are experiencing migration out of the country of individuals with experience and education needed in the country. They are, in short, a nation in panic.
In the international relations field, you see discussions of the lack of political influence. Russia once held a spot as one of two superpowers in the world. a regional giant who's influence shook the way international politics operated. From 1950-1989 there were really only two countries in the world that everyone needed to pay attention to: the Soviet Union and the United States. everyone else was a pawn. There was the First world, the US and her allies, the Second World, the Soviet Union and her allies, and the Third world, the non-aligned nations. (which, by the way, is where that phrase came from. a "third world" country was thought as a country so unimportant, neither the US or USSR cared about you.) in this climate, Russian, who still held what was considered the second most powerful military in the world (though... not so much now) felt they were under appreciated. China was the emerging economic powerhouse.
This is something i went into in my IR video. (as i have an IR background)
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What is amazing about all this analysis is that different fields point to different reasons as to why russia invaded. and similar analysis could be done other regions. any conflict can be analyzed in this manner. the disputes in africa are interesting because the easy answer to why there are so many wars in africa is "colonialism." and i think it does make a useful, simplified solution. but it foregoes the other realms of analysis as to why these conflicts are happening.
not sure what made me procrastinate on making a video and writing this out. i needed a break from editing. I hope you found this interesting.
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tawus · 6 days
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African/African-American/Black
Do The Right Thing (1989) On the hottest day of the year on a street in the Bedford-Stuyvesant section of Brooklyn, everyone's hate and bigotry smolders and builds until it explodes into violence.
Goodbye Solo (2008) This film is touching and humorous. It is the story of an unlikely friendship between a struggling but happy cab driver from Senegal, and a tormented southern man with secrets.
Lincoln (2012) As the Civil War continues to rage, President struggles with continued fighting on the battlefield during the civil war but he also fights with many inside his own cabinet with his decision to emancipate the slaves.
Malcom X (1992) Biographical epic of the controversial and influential Black Nationalist leader, from his early life and career as a small-time gangster to his ministry as a member of the Nation of Islam.
Straight Outta Compton (2015) The group NWA emerges from the mean streets of Compton in Los Angeles, California, in the mid-1980s and revolutionizes Hip Hop culture with their music and tales about life in the hood.
The Color of Friendship (2000) Mahree Bok is a white South African teenager and a product of the Apartheid system raised to view dark-skinned people as second-class citizens. Piper Dellums is the daughter of an African-American U.S. Congressman living in Washington D.C. When Mahree is chosen to spend her time as an exchange student at the Dellums's house, she is shocked on her arrival to discover that the Dellums are black, and the Dellums are just as surprised when they realize that Mahree is a white South African.
The Color Purple (1985) Based on Alice Walker's Pulitzer Prize-winning novel, The Color Purple is a richly-textured, powerful film set in America's rural south. It is a brilliant drama about a black woman's struggles to take control of her life in a small Southern town in the early 20th century.
The Help (2011) This academy award winning movie takes place during the civil rights movements of the 1960’s, when an aspiring writer decides to write a book about the African-American maids' point of view on the white families they work for and the hardships they experience on a daily basis.
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Cambodian/Chinese/Vietnamese
Eat Drink Man Woman (1994) A senior chef lives with his three grown daughters; the middle one finds her future plans affected by unexpected events and the life changes of the other household members.
Holly (2006) In Cambodia, Holly, a 12-year-old Vietnamese girl, encounters Patrick, an American stolen artifacts dealer. The story follows their strong connection and her unrelenting efforts to escape her fate.
Last Train Home (2009) A couple embarks on a journey home for Chinese new year along with 130 million other migrant workers, to reunite with their children and struggle for a future. Their unseen story plays out as China soars towards being a world superpower.
Lost in Paradise (2011) Khoi, naive twenty-year-old travels to Ho Chi Minh City from the countryside to begin a new life. It's his first time in the big city and he's looking for a place to live.
Raise the Red Lantern (1991) A young woman becomes the fourth wife of a wealthy lord and must learn to live with the strict rules and tensions within the household.
Sentenced Home (2007) This documentary follows three Cambodian-American men, brought to the U.S. as children by their refugee families. They were raised in the grim public housing of Seattle, among gangs and other realities of that life. Bad choices as teens altered their lives forever, when immigration laws after 9/11 provided no second changes for such children. Though they were raised in the U.S., speak to one another in English, even think in English, each is sentenced to return to Cambodia - separated from family here, possibly forever.
The Joy Luck Club (1993) The story of four Chinese women who immigrated to the U.S. and their first-generation daughters. When one of the women dies, her daughter plays Mahjong with the older women and begins to really learn what her mother endured in China and of her sisters who were left behind. Daughter from Danang (2002) Separated at the end of the Vietnam war, an "Americanized" woman and her Vietnamese mother are reunited after 22 years.
The Last Emperor (1987) The story of the final Emperor of China.
The Quiet American (2002) An older British reporter vies with a young U.S. doctor for the affections of a beautiful Vietnamese woman.
The Vertical Ray of the Sun (2000) The plot centres around three sisters, two of whom are happily married (or so it appears).
Three Seasons (1999) An American in Ho Chi Minh City looks for a daughter he fathered during the war. He meets Woody, a child who's a street vendor, and when Woody's case of wares disappears, he thinks the soldier took it. Woody hunts for him.
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South Asian/Indian
Bhaji on the Beach (1998) Hashida, an 18-year old Asian woman, lives with her family in Birmingham. Her father wants her to become a doctor and next month her medical school is going to start. Secretly, she has a black boyfriend – which is an absolute faux pas in some Asian cultures – and has now discovered that she is pregnant. She joins a small South Asian women's group on a trip to Blackpool, a trip that holds life-changing experiences for all.
Bend It Like Beckham (2002) Teen-aged Londoner Jesminder Bhamra chases her dream of being a professional soccer player while dealing with the objections of her traditional Sikh family.
Gandhi (1982) A biography of Mohandas K. Gandhi, the lawyer who became the famed leader of the Indian revolts against the British rule through his philosophy of non-violent protest.
Slum Dog Millionaire (2008) A teen in Mumbai, India who grew up in the slums, becomes a contestant on the Indian version of "Who Wants To Be A Millionaire?" When he is suspected of cheating, he is arrested. During his police interrogation, events from his life history are shown which explain why he knows the answers.
The Namesake (2006) A tale of a first-generation son of traditional, Indian immigrant parents. As he tries to make a place for himself, not always able to straddle two worlds gracefully, he is surprised by what he learns about his family and himself.
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Disease/Mental Illness/Disability
My Left Foot: The Story of Christy Brown (1989) Christy Brown, born with cerebral palsy, learns to paint and write with his only controllable limb - his left foot.
The Theory of Everything (2014) A look at the relationship between the famous physicist Stephen Hawking and his wife.
Ray (2004) The story of the life and career of the legendary rhythm and blues musician Ray Charles, from his humble beginnings in the South, where he went blind at age seven, to his meteoric rise to stardom during the 1950s and 1960s.
Silver Linings Playbook (2012) After a stint in a mental institution, former teacher Pat Solitano moves back in with his parents and tries to reconcile with his ex-wife. Things get more challenging when Pat meets Tiffany, a mysterious girl with problems of her own.
Still Alice (2014) A linguistics professor and her family find their bonds tested when she is diagnosed with Alzheimer's Disease.
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LGBTQ+
A Single Man (2009) The story of an English professor, who one year after the sudden death of his boyfriend, is unable to cope with his typical days in 1960s Los Angeles. It is a powerful story of his grief and pain for the loss of someone he truly deeply loved.
Boys Don’t Cry(1999) This film is about the true life story of Brandon Teena, a young woman who is going through a sexual identity crisis. She cuts her hair and dresses like a man to see if she can pass as one. She lived life in a male identity until it was discovered he was born biologically female.
Brokeback Mountain (2005) This film tells the story of a forbidden and secretive relationship between two same-sex cowboys and their lives over the years.
Milk (2008) This film tells the story of American gay activist, Harvey Milk, and his struggles as he fights for gay rights and becomes California's first openly gay elected official.
Philadelphia (1993) In this movie, a lawyer, working for a conservative law firm, is diagnosed with AIDS. His employer fires him because of his condition. He tries to find someone to take his case but all refuse except one willing small time lawyer who advocates for a wrongful dismissal suit in spite of his own fears and homophobia.
The Danish Girl (2015) A fictitious love story loosely inspired by the lives of Danish artists Lili Elbe and Gerda Wegener. Lili and Gerda's marriage and work evolve as they navigate Lili's groundbreaking journey as a transgender pioneer.
Transamerica (2005) A pre-operative male-to-female transgender takes an unexpected journey when she learns that she fathered a son, now a teenage runaway hustling on the streets of New York.
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Hispanic/Latino(a)/Mexican
A Day Without a Mexican (2004) One-third of the population of California is Latinos, Hispanics, Mexicans. How would it change life for the state's other residents if this portion of the populous suddenly vanished? The film is a "mockumentary" designed to show the valuable contributions made every day by Latinos.
Babel (2006) Tragedy strikes a married couple on vacation in the Moroccan desert, touching off an interlocking story involving four different families.
El Norte (1983) The Guatemalan army discovers Mayan Indian peasants who have begun to organize, hoping to rise above their label of "brazos fuertes" or "strong arms" (manual laborers). The army massacres their families and destroys their village to give the new recruits no choice but to follow and obey. However, two teenage siblings survive and are determined to escape to the U.S. or El Norte. They make their way to L.A. - uneducated, illegal immigrants, alone.
Mi Familia (My Family) (1995) This epic film traces over three generations an immigrant family's trials, tribulations, tragedies, and triumphs. Jose and Maria, the first generation, come to Los Angeles, meet, marry, face deportation all in the 1930s. They establish their family in East L.A., and their children Chucho, Paco, Memo, Irene, Toni, and Jimmy deal with youth culture and the L.A. police in the 1950s. As the second generation become adults in the 1960s, the focus shifts to Jimmy, his marriage to Isabel (a Salvadorian refugee), their son, and Jimmy's journey to becoming a responsible parent.
Sin Nombre (2009) A Honduran young girl and a Mexican gangster are united in a journey across the American border.
Under the Same Moon (2007) Heartwarming story about a mother who leaves Mexico to make a home for herself and her son (Adrian Alonso). When the boy's grandmother dies, leaving him alone, he sets off on his own to find his mother.
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Immigrants/Undocumented
Crossing Arizona (2006) With Americans on all sides of the issue up in arms and Congress in a policy battle over how to move forward, Crossing Arizona tells the story of how we got to where we are today. Heightened security in California and Texas has pushed illegal border-crossers into the Arizona desert in unprecedented numbers (estimated 4,500 a day). Most are Mexican men in search of work, but increasingly the border-crossers are women and children wanting to join their husbands and fathers. This influx of migrants crossing through Arizona and the attendant rising death toll has elicited complicated feelings about human rights, culture, class, labor, and national security.
Dancer in the Dark (2000) An east European girl goes to America with her young son, expecting it to be like a Hollywood film.
El Norte (1983) The Guatemalan army discovers Mayan Indian peasants who have begun to organize, hoping to rise above their label of "brazos fuertes" or "strong arms" (manual laborers). The army massacres their families and destroys their village to give the new recruits no choice but to follow and obey. However, two teenage siblings survive and are determined to escape to the U.S. or El Norte. They make their way to L.A. - uneducated, illegal immigrants, alone.
In America (2002) A family of Irish immigrants adjusts to life on the mean streets of Hell's Kitchen while also grieving the death of a child.
The Terminal (2004) When an Eastern European immigrant comes to American to fulfill a promise to his father he finds himself stranded inside JFK airport, making it his temporary residence when he cannot enter the USA nor return home.
The Visitor (2007) A lonely economics professor in Connecticut life is changed forever - and for the better - when he finds a couple of illegals, who happen to be living in his New York apartment.
Green Card (1990) A French man wanting to stay in the US enters into a “short-term” marriage to an American woman so he can get his green card. Complications result when he gets caught lying.
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Indigenous
Avatar (2009) A paraplegic marine dispatched to the moon Pandora on a unique mission becomes torn between following his orders and protecting the world he feels is his home.
Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee (2007) A chronicle of how American Indians were displaced as the U.S. expanded west. Based on the book by Dee Brown.
Once Were Warriors (1994) A family descended from Maori warriors is bedeviled by a violent father and the societal problems of being treated as outcasts.
Rabbit-Proof Fence (2002) In 1931 Australia, government policy includes taking half-caste children from their Aboriginal mothers and sending them a thousand miles away "to save them from themselves." Molly, Daisy, and Grace (two sisters and a cousin who are 14, 10, and 8) arrive at their “school” and promptly escape, under Molly's lead. For days they walk north, following a fence that keeps rabbits from settlements, eluding a native tracker and the regional constabulary. Their pursuers take orders from the government's "chief protector of Aborigines," A.O. Neville, blinded by Anglo-Christian certainty, evolutionary worldview and conventional wisdom.
Smoke Signals (1998) Young Indian man Thomas is a nerd in his reservation, wearing oversize glasses and telling everyone stories no-one wants to hear. His parents died in a fire in 1976, and Thomas was saved by Arnold. Arnold soon left his family (and his tough son Victor), and Victor hasn't seen his father for 10 years. When Victor hears Arnold has died, Thomas offers him funding for the trip to get Arnold's remains, but only if Thomas will also go with him. Thomas and Victor hit the road.
The Spirit of Crazy Horse (1990) One hundred years after the massacre at Wounded Knee, Milo Yellow Hair recounts the story of his people-from the lost battles for their land against the invading whites-to the bitter internal divisions and radicalization of the 1970's-to the present-day revival of Sioux cultural pride, which has become a unifying force as the Sioux try to define themselves and their future.
Whale Rider (2002) On the east coast of New Zealand, the Whangara people believe their History dates back a thousand years to a single ancestor, Paikea, who escaped death when his canoe capsized by riding to shore on the back of a whale. Whangara chiefs have been considered Paikea's direct descendants. Pai, an 11-year-old girl in a patriarchal New Zealand culture, believes she is destined to be the new chief. But her grandfather Koro is bound by tradition to pick a male leader. Pai must fight a thousand years of tradition to fulfill her destiny.
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Middle Eastern
Baran (2001) In a building site in present-day Tehran, Lateef, a 17-year-old Turkish worker is irresistibly drawn to Rahmat, a young Afghan worker. The revelation of Rahmat's secret changes both their lives.
Incendies (2010) Twins journey to the Middle East to discover their family history, and fulfill their mother's last wishes.
Schindler's List (1993) In German-occupied Poland during World War II, Oskar Schindler gradually becomes concerned for his Jewish workforce after witnessing their persecution by the Nazi Germans.
The Band’s Visit (2007) A band comprised of members of the Egyptian police force head to Israel to play at the inaugural ceremony of an Arab arts center, only to find themselves lost in the wrong town.
Turtles Can Fly (2004) Near the Iraqi-Turkish border on the eve of an American invasion, refugee children like 13-year-old Kak (Ebrahim), gauge and await their fate.
Wadjda (2012) An enterprising Saudi girl signs on for her school's Koran recitation competition as a way to raise the remaining funds she needs in order to buy the green bicycle that has captured her interest.
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Pacific Islander/Polynesian
Balangiga: The Howling Wilderness (2017) 1901, Balangiga. Eight-year-old Kulas flees town with his grandfather and their carabao to escape General Smith's Kill and Burn order. He finds a toddler amid a sea of corpses and together, the two boys struggle to survive the American occupation.
Moana (2016) In Ancient Polynesia, when a terrible curse incurred by the Demigod Maui reaches an impetuous Chieftain's daughter's island, she answers the Ocean's call to seek out the Demigod to set things right.
Once Were Warriors (1994) A family descended from Maori warriors is bedeviled by a violent father and the societal problems of being treated as outcasts.
Princess Kaiulani (2009) The story of a Hawaiian princess' attempts to maintain the independence of the island against the threat of American colonization.
Whale Rider (2002) On the east coast of New Zealand, the Whangara people believe their History dates back a thousand years to a single ancestor, Paikea, who escaped death when his canoe capsized by riding to shore on the back of a whale. Whangara chiefs have been considered Paikea's direct descendants. Pai, an 11-year-old girl in a patriarchal New Zealand culture, believes she is destined to be the new chief. But her grandfather Koro is bound by tradition to pick a male leader. Pai must fight a thousand years of tradition to fulfill her destiny.
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Women
Āfsāīd = Offside (2006) Struggle of Women in a country that excludes them from entering the stadiums.
The Help (2011) This academy award winning movie takes place during the civil rights movements of the 1960’s when an aspiring writer decides to write a book about the African-American maids' point of view on the white families they work for and the hardships they experience on a daily basis.
Suffragette (2015) The foot soldiers of the early feminist movement, women who were forced underground to pursue a dangerous game of cat and mouse with an increasingly brutal State.
Water (2005) The film examines the plight of a group of widows forced into poverty at a temple in the holy city of Varanasi. It focuses on a relationship between one of the widows, who wants to escape the social restrictions imposed on widows, and a man who is from the highest caste and a follower of Mahatma Gandhi.
Whale Rider (2002) On the east coast of New Zealand, the Whangara people believe their History dates back a thousand years to a single ancestor, Paikea, who escaped death when his canoe capsized by riding to shore on the back of a whale. Whangara chiefs have been considered Paikea's direct descendants. Pai, an 11-year-old girl in a patriarchal New Zealand culture, believes she is destined to be the new chief. But her grandfather Koro is bound by tradition to pick a male leader. Pai must fight a thousand years of tradition to fulfill her destiny.
Ooh amazing, thank you for this! ❤️
I've watched Slumdog Millionaire, Brokeback Mountain, and Schindler's List. And read a Penguin Classics abridged version of Rabbit-Proof Fence as part of my English learning back in my teenage years. Some of the others I'm familiar with tho have yet to watch; and others are completely new to me
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worldbuilding-project · 2 months
Text
Worldbuilding masterpost: The International 2030
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The Worldbuilding projeckt "International" is not an alternate history, I would concider it fiction, as it lacks a clear point of departure.
The worldbuilding starts during the russian revolution, were oposed to the Bolsheviks taking power, the First Congress of the Soviets was formed and dominated by the democratic socialist PS, who with the help of ukranian anarchist groups ousted the authoratarian SRP (Socialist Revolutionary Party).
The first political iteration of "The International" was formed in the interwar years by the Soviet Union to support and influence socialist movements abroad.
In the year 2030, 108 years after the founding of "The International", the now federal union spreads over large parts of Asia, Africa and Europa.
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The situation around the world is a lot diferent. Ever since the Revolutions of 1989, the USA has worked to maintain and strengthen its influence in the Americas and in southeast Asia. Over the past two decades, China has ended its Maoist isolation and become a rising star, threatening the postiton of the two superpowers.
The International voted to federalise in the year 2000 during the Cairo Conference. Since then it has been focused more on its internal reorganisation than spreading socialism further, to great internal debate. The International operates on the grounding principles of Democratic Socialism. Meaning in practice, political decisions are made through direct and representative democracy, whilst the means of poduction are owned by the workers, through a worker cooperative system.
The United States has fallen into an Authoratarien sham Democracy, undergoing a largescale reactionary backslide.
China has left its maoist emposed autarky and is the rising star of the superpowers.
Curent Crises:
The Mexican Emergency
The Congolese Civil War
The North American Refugee Crisis
The Venezuelan Insurgency
The Iraqi Civil War
The rise of Islamic Radicalism
The Rise of Christian Terrorism in Europa
The Taiwan Dispute
And smaller ones not listed here.
If you have questions, want clarification or are just interested into a specific part of the worldbuilding, my asks are open.
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dresden-syndrome · 8 months
Note
Tell us a bit about your original whumpy world! What is it like?
-- @whumperofworlds
✨Thank you for asking!! Sorry for the long response, I really appreciate your curiosity!🥰
❇️After Germany lost the WW2, it was split to four occupation zones, with three of them governed by countries of the West and the fourth given to the USSR. The country spent a few years in poverty and uncertainty while the victorious superpower nations argued over its future, until in October 1949 the fate of Germany's Soviet part was sealed.
✳️Using their political powers and status, the USSR made it into a communist satellite state - German Democratic Republic. From that point, the alternative history timeline begins.
❇️The Soviets promoted their chosen candidate, Klaus Weninger, to rule the newly found state. Being an orthodox Soviet Marxist-Leninist with a tyrannical side, Weninger proudly considered himself "Comrade Stalin's first disciple", determined to rebuild East Germany by the Soviet dictator's views.
✳️As more Eastern European states started turning Communist by that time, he decided to take matter in his own hands. Suffering from USSR's pressure, these states were more eager to unite on European lands rather than stay under Kremlin's direct control. With Stalin's approval, Weninger's party began the unification process, and by the end of 1950 six countries formed their own communist state governed by East Germany: the EESU.
❇️Klaus Weninger aimed for a fast effective country restoration in his radical order. The EESU government was quick to estabilish the ideological basis. The ECP (European Communist Party) dominated over the state, declaring all opposing political parties illegal.
✳️Open displays of propaganda backed by material support became a common thing. With raising quality and stability of life, the people were worried yet quite supportive at first. But by the time the political tyranny started to show its claws, it was already too late.
❇️The first obstacle in the new state's life was the divided capital, Berlin. After lots of conflicts, with the help of the USSR and China Berlin was fully united by the end of 1953. There wasn't such thing as the Berlin wall in EESU - their infamous Cold War wall was way larger. A wall on the EESU - West Germany border, building since 1957. The Great Wall of Germany.
✳️The EESU's relationships with the West were extremely difficult, often balancing on the verge of an armed conflict. It led to a constant threat of the next World War both in the government and common folks' life.
❇️Children learned the basic military skills and evacuation plans from a young age, military bases and bunkers emerged near every town, calls for peace and bread were shouted alongside with "war to the West".
✳️EESU often imposed martial law in regions or the country as a whole, most of the times without fully informing citizens of the reasons behind, doubling down on terror, propaganda and surveillance for all the population affected. More often than not it became either cause or consequence of civil unrest.
❇️Science, healthcare and technological progress were one of the EESU's priorities. Careers in STEM and medical fields were highly respected and encouraged, lots of young scientists from EESU, USSR and China contributed to the country's advance, new hospitals and research facilities appeared at the record rate. By mid 1960s EESU was already recognized as having one of the most efficient healthcare systems in the world.
✳️Their dirty little secret? Advanced State Research. The strictly confidential country-wide program specifically for human experiments, obtaining the subjects from State Security prisons. With those regarded irredeemable (class 4) any tests, scientific or not, were justified by the government with no legal repercussions.
❇️Ah yes, human rights. Officially the EESU had a constitution, guaranteeing everyone's rights, duties, freedom and dignity. It's only that the ideology was above all laws. And it didn't worked during the martial law. And "everyone" there meant "every politically loyal one". And nobody was safe from being accused of political crimes. Not to mention the EESU political criminal classification in which the "irredeemable" offenders were legally deprived of the human status itself. A true democracy.
💫Sorry it turned out so long! If you've read it so far, treat yourself with something tasty for endurance, you deserved it!💫
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whentimeceased · 2 months
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The World Before
Following the tumultuous aftermath of the Second World War, the global landscape found itself under the sway of two colossal entities, each vying for supremacy: the United States of America and The Union of Soviet Social Republics. Despite their former alignment against the Axis Powers, ideological disparities brewed an enduring enmity akin to the historic Reformation Wars. Nations found themselves ensnared in the clash of titans, yet both superpowers balked at the brink of all-out conflict, fearing the cataclysmic devastation wrought by nuclear annihilation.
Instead, the battleground of this Cold War sprawled across technological frontiers and diplomatic chessboards. Out of the ashes emerged two formidable supra-national coalitions: the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the Leningrad Accords. Though masquerading as mere alliances, these entities functioned more akin to feudal overlords, commanding allegiance from their respective vassal states. Born amidst the fall of China and the tumult in Korea, their primary directive was clear: solidarity among the like-minded—Communist to protect Communist, Capitalist to shield Capitalist.
Within the span of two decades post-war, technological progress surged forward with unprecedented fervor. Man achieved the historic feat of setting foot upon the lunar surface, even as the sons and daughters of Earth perished in the quagmires of Southeast Asia. Barely five years after the lunar landing, the celestial body, dubbed Luna, harbored a burgeoning populace, armed to the teeth and casting a wary gaze toward their ideological adversaries on the lunar horizon.
When the Soviet Union dispatched its Peacekeepers to Afghanistan, their arsenal boasted weaponry hitherto confined to the realm of science fiction. Beams of energy charred flesh as they pierced through opposition, heralding a new era where humanoid mechs strode alongside conventional tanks, and exosuits propelled soldiers to the threshold of superhuman prowess.
This was the world on the precipice—a world entrenched in conflict, yet poised for a paradigm shift. A world bracing itself for the dawn of a new kind of warfare.
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myrddin-wylt · 1 year
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a dumbed down and inaccurate guide to international power levels
small power: a legally independent (ie recognized internationally) entity. there’s no single definition, but most of the world is made up of small powers. directly govern themselves, but their independence may or may not be contested internationally. 
middle power: a sovereign entity that has moderate or large influence and recognition internationally. they’re generally universally recognized as independent. “has sufficient strength and authority to stand on its own without the need of help from others.” most members of the G20 are at least middle powers.  
emerging powers: states that were solidly middle powers until recently and are now rapidly becoming or have recently become great powers. India and Brazil are the best examples.
great power: there’s like no solid definition and they’re generally “you know it when you see it” countries. basically just look at the list of permanent members of the UN Security Council (non-permanent members are either middle or emerging powers). if they have nuclear weapons that they can actually use, they’re at least one of these.
superpower: the most powerful of the great powers. when the great and middle powers want to significantly change the status quo, first they consider how these guys will feel about it. currently there’s only two superpowers and you already know who they are - or if you don’t, you’re one of their citizens. (or you’re Russian.)
hegemon: definition varies even more wildly but basically, has the most international influence out of any single country. for the past decade, the US has been a hegemon in decline (because of China getting more powerful, not necessarily because the US became weaker). 
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mightyflamethrower · 2 months
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10 Facts About Communism
February 8, 2024 by The Historian
Communism, a socio-political ideology that emerged in response to the inequalities of industrial capitalism, has left an indelible mark on the course of history.
From its origins in the writings of Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels to its implementation in states like the Soviet Union and China, communism has sparked both fervent devotion and vehement criticism.
In this article, we delve into the complexities of communism’s legacy, examining its theoretical foundations, historical manifestations, and contemporary relevance.
From the classless society envisioned by its founders to the authoritarian regimes that characterized its implementation, we explore the multifaceted impact of communism on societies worldwide.
Communism Facts
1. Emerged in 19th century as response to capitalism’s inequalities
Communism arose as a socio-political response to the injustices and disparities brought about by industrial capitalism during the 19th century.
Also Read: Chernobyl Timeline
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2. Aims for classless society with common ownership of production
Central to communist ideology is the vision of a classless society where the means of production are collectively owned by the people rather than controlled by a wealthy elite.
This collective ownership is intended to eliminate the disparities in wealth and power inherent in capitalist societies, ensuring that resources are distributed according to need rather than profit.
3. Marxism-Leninism adapted communism for Russia
Leninism, an adaptation of Marxist theory by Vladimir Lenin, was developed to suit the conditions of early 20th-century Russia.
Also Read: Timeline of Communism
It emphasized the necessity of a vanguard party to lead the proletariat (the working class) in a revolutionary struggle against the bourgeoisie (the capitalist class).
Leninism also advocated for the establishment of a dictatorship of the proletariat as a transitional stage towards the ultimate goal of a classless, stateless society.
4. Soviet Union first major communist state
Following the Russian Revolution of 1917, the Bolsheviks, led by Vladimir Lenin, established the Soviet Union as the world’s first major communist state.
The Bolsheviks, later known as the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU), implemented Marxist-Leninist principles, including the nationalization of industry, collectivization of agriculture, and the establishment of a planned economy.
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5. Cold War saw communism vs capitalism rivalry
The ideological conflict between communism and capitalism escalated into the Cold War, a geopolitical standoff between the United States and its allies (the Western bloc) and the Soviet Union and its allies (the Eastern bloc).
The Cold War, which lasted from the late 1940s to the early 1990s, was characterized by political tension, military buildup, espionage, and proxy wars fought in regions such as Korea, Vietnam, and Afghanistan.
The rivalry between the two superpowers shaped global politics and international relations during this period.
6. Often led to authoritarian regimes and human rights abuses
While communism aspired to create a classless and egalitarian society, the implementation of communist regimes often resulted in authoritarian rule and widespread human rights abuses.
Examples include the Stalinist regime in the Soviet Union, Mao Zedong’s rule in China, and the Khmer Rouge regime in Cambodia under Pol Pot.
These regimes were characterized by political repression, mass purges, forced labor camps, and suppression of dissent. The authoritarian nature of communist governments led to criticism from both within and outside the communist movement, undermining the idealistic goals of communism.
7. Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, ending Cold War
The Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991 marked the end of the Cold War and the disintegration of the world’s largest communist state.
A combination of internal and external factors contributed to the collapse, including economic stagnation, political reforms initiated by Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev (such as glasnost and perestroika), nationalist movements within the Soviet republics, and pressures from the Western bloc.
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8. Few remaining communist states: Cuba, N. Korea, Vietnam, China
Despite the collapse of the Soviet Union, a few countries continue to adhere to communist ideology to varying degrees these include:
Cuba, led by the Communist Party of Cuba since the Cuban Revolution in 1959
North Korea, governed by the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea under a highly centralized system
Vietnam, where the Communist Party of Vietnam maintains a one-party system following the reunification of North and South Vietnam in 1976
China, where the Communist Party of China has maintained authoritarian control over the country since 1949, albeit with significant economic reforms since the late 1970s.
9. Critics cite stifling of freedoms, inefficiency, corruption
Critics of communism often point to its track record of stifling individual freedoms, limiting economic innovation and efficiency, and fostering corruption and inefficiency.
The abolition of private property and centralization of economic control under state ownership have been criticized for suppressing entrepreneurial spirit and creativity.
Moreover, the concentration of power in the hands of the state has led to instances of authoritarianism, political repression, and human rights abuses in communist regimes throughout history.
10. Some advocate modern adaptations for communism’s ideals
Despite the historical failures of communist regimes, some individuals and groups continue to advocate for communist ideals while seeking to address past shortcomings and adapt to contemporary challenges.
This includes proposals for decentralized socialism, participatory democracy, and sustainable economic planning.
Advocates argue for a reimagining of communism that prioritizes individual liberties, democratic governance, and ecological sustainability, aiming to create a more equitable and just society without repeating the mistakes of the past.
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sataniccapitalist · 5 months
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China: Power and Prosperity -- Watch the full documentary
As China has risen in prosperity, influence and military strength, what are the social, economic and political forces at play? Come along with PBS NewsHour as we travel around the globe to explore the emerging superpower and its relationship with the United States.
"China: Power and Prosperity" covers the country’s powerful leader, his signature foreign policy, U.S.-China trade and technology wars, how Chinese technology helps stifle dissent, and more. A collaboration with the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting, PBS NewsHour conducted more than 70 on-camera interviews in eight Chinese cities and across eight countries.
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mariacallous · 9 months
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The next test of whether top U.S. adversaries can erode its role as the leading global superpower will come in the form of a major diplomatic confab in South Africa. 
Next week, leaders of the so-called BRICS group—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—will convene in Johannesburg for a major summit, where Moscow and Beijing aim to solidify a counterbalance to the Western-led international system. Both Russia and China are keen to breathe new life into the BRICS bloc to show the world that there are alternatives to the patchwork U.S.-led alliances and institutions that have dominated global affairs for decades. 
There’s clearly a growing appetite among other countries for an alternative to the U.S.-led system: Some 40 countries, from Argentina to Saudi Arabia to Kazakhstan, have voiced interest in joining BRICS, while more than 67 world leaders and dignitaries were invited to next week’s summit. 
“The global south will be watching next week’s BRICS summit closely in the hopes that the rising grouping of global and middle powers makes some progress in filling the considerable gaps left by America’s shoddy global governance,” said Sarang Shidore, director of the global south program at the Quincy Institute think tank. Even as emerging-market economies reel from the shocks of the pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine, Washington has offered little support, instead pursuing an aggressive campaign of interest rate hikes that has exacerbated economic turmoil around the world.
Next week’s summit harkens back to the days of the Bandung Conference, where 29 governments from Asia, Africa, and the Middle East assembled during the Cold War and laid the groundwork for the nonaligned movement. Like then, BRICS serves as an alternative, if inchoate, effort to push back against the hegemon of the day—albeit one that has been complicated by China’s and Russia’s membership.
“BRICS has tapped into a demand that wasn’t being met elsewhere,” said Rebecca Ray, a senior researcher at the Boston University Global Development Policy Center, who noted that countries that aren’t even applying for membership are attending the summit in Johannesburg. “The question is: What do they want their role to be in responding to that?”
There’s no clear answer yet. And experts don’t expect one to emerge from the upcoming summit, with few details yet released on the agenda or real deliverables. Complicating the matter is the fact that BRICS countries have vastly disparate national interests, and vague proposals to expand the bloc’s membership and economic influence seem poised to stumble out of the gate. 
India and China are at loggerheads; South Africa is caught between a diplomatic rock and a hard place over its ties to Russia amid the war in Ukraine; and Brazil has done little to stick its neck out for Russia, despite its historically nonaligned foreign policy. All BRICS countries, even China, face economic headwinds that make any future plans to challenge the U.S.-led Group of 7’s spot at the top of the global economy more pipe dream than reality.
The grouping is currently in a “sweet spot, where it’s fulfilling its role, it helps members constrain the United States to some extent, [and] it strengthens ties between the BRICS,” said Oliver Stuenkel, a professor at the School of International Relations at Brazil’s Fundação Getulio Vargas. “But I think if there’s more ambitious projects, then it will inevitably strain this grouping and expose the divergences.”
For Russia, the BRICS summit is an opportunity to demonstrate that it no longer needs the West following Western efforts to isolate Moscow on the world stage in the wake of its bloody war in Ukraine. But that opportunity comes with an awkward footnote: Russian President Vladimir Putin is no longer attending in person as he has a warrant out for his arrest over war crimes in Ukraine from the International Criminal Court (ICC). South Africa, as a member of the ICC, would have been legally obligated to honor the arrest warrant. 
China, meanwhile, is keen to position itself as the de facto leader of the global south and the friend of choice to countries worldwide that feel they have been undervalued or left behind by Washington and its most powerful and wealthy allies in Europe and Asia. Beijing has long pushed for the grouping’s enlargement, even though its ambitions have sparked pushback from other BRICS members.
“China is the only country that is not concerned at all about diluting the prestige of BRICS” by expanding it to more countries, Stuenkel said. “For China, I think it really makes sense to expand so that the BRICS can become an element in a more China-centric order—a Chinese-led system of different structures like the One Belt, One Road; the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank; [and the] BRICS bank,” he said, referring to China’s leading global infrastructure investment program, the Chinese-backed multilateral lender, and the nascent New Development Bank established by BRICS countries just under a decade ago.
Yet Beijing has had a harder time getting the other BRICS members on board, further underscoring their competing visions of the group’s future. The idea of expansion has worried India and Brazil in particular, both of which have taken pride in the group’s exclusivity and fear that an open door will diminish its prestige. 
“Brazil is very proud of its BRICS membership,” Stuenkel said. “If you’re part of a very exclusive club, it makes sense that you don’t want to see the club becoming open to everyone.” 
One major proposal some leaders have floated ahead of the summit is developing a BRICS common currency to hedge against the U.S. dollar, although it is not on the summit’s agenda and experts are highly skeptical of the plan. Economist Jim O’Neill, who first coined the BRICS term in 2001, blasted the idea of a BRICS currency as “ridiculous” and “absurd” earlier this week.
“The idea that five countries with very divergent interests and trajectories can somehow form a coherent enough union to expand its membership and stand up this hare-brained idea of a BRICS currency seems really far-fetched to me,” said J. Peter Pham, a former U.S. diplomatic envoy to African regions during the Trump administration. “I don’t expect anything of substance to come out of this summit, unless you consider the lack of substance as itself politically substantive.”
Still, even without a common currency, Beijing has capitalized on the BRICS grouping to boost its long-standing bid to internationalize the renminbi and slash its dependence on the dollar. In the run-up to the BRICS summit, a growing number of countries, including Brazil and Argentina, have used the renminbi in trade to cope with a shortage of dollars and curry favor with Beijing. These efforts are set to continue long after Johannesburg, with BRICS countries expected to deliberate how to ramp up the use of local currencies in trade at the summit. They are also set to discuss a potential common payments system and committee focused on a joint currency—although experts don’t expect any challenges to the existing global financial architecture. 
Talk of a BRICS common currency is “really a reflection of a desire among some segments of the world to have some counterweight to the U.S., the U.S. economy, the dollar,” said Daniel McDowell, an expert in international political economy at Syracuse University. But “I think most of this is just in fantasy land, because I don’t see any world in which it is really going to emerge in the way some people might hope.”
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zvaigzdelasas · 2 years
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In the apolar world of the 21st century, the US metric of power is archaic. It is no longer about how many boots you can put on the ground, but how you effectively orchestrate all levers of a nation’s influence to advance your interests – more through appeal and subversion than compulsion and coercion.[...]
But the US messaging towards the region has been everything but consistent, riddled with say-do gaps between what Washington says and what it delivers. And while the partnership between the United States and the Gulf was always built around interests more than values, the appeal of what America stands for would be strengthened if it were as passionately for the rights of Palestinians as it is for the rights of Ukrainians.[...]
In recent months, Middle Eastern officials and policymakers have asked me what it is that the West stands for in Ukraine. They do not buy into the East versus West, authoritarian versus liberal divide that is at the heart of a new war over narratives. And while the Ukraine war has become a new liberal rallying point, this value-based consensus in the West appears to be an illusion outside Nato boundaries.
The threats issued by US lawmakers and the Biden administration are hardly going to generate tangible consequences for Riyadh
Consequently, especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have honoured Obama’s call to take on more responsibility - but doing so as they see fit. They have developed networks and partnerships of their own, which they use to advance their own interests with little regard for western interests or values.
The Ukraine war has put the Gulf states ever more in the driver’s seat. Beyond their dominance in global energy markets, they have become the centre of gravity of the entire region, making them the focus of increased great power interest from China and Russia.
This newly won confidence has been on display over the past week in the different rounds of a bilateral shouting match driven by politicised rhetoric more than substance – for the most part actually not between the United States and Saudi Arabia but between the Democratic party and the kingdom. [...]
No wonder the narratives coming from the Biden administration and Democratic lawmakers are extremely vicious towards the Saudis. Framing it within the emergent bipolarity of you-are-either-with-us-or-against-us, Democratic senators have pushed for US-Saudi relations to be put on ice.
Meanwhile, UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed exploited the anti-Saudi “storm” coming from Washington to commit to a formal state visit to Russia. The UAE used the opportunity to cement a bilateral partnership that for Russia is far more strategic and important for survival than the relationship with Riyadh.
After all, the UAE has become the most important hub for Russian sanctions evasion.
In the meantime, salvos of weaponised narratives are fired at Saudi Arabia to which the kingdom and its information networks always have an immediate response.
Amid the Gulf’s pivot to the East, these shouting matches are highly destructive to America’s credibility in the region as the erstwhile superpower struggles to come to terms with its new role as a primus inter pares whose former client states refuse to act as vassals.
The problem at the heart remains that beyond all that narrative, the threats issued by US lawmakers and the Biden administration are hardly going to generate tangible consequences for Riyadh, because the United States is unable or unwilling to develop a sustainable and credible US foreign and security policy towards the region that could actually do without Saudi Arabia or its partners in the Gulf.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman has literally gotten away with murder [more than] once and is unlikely going to stumble over an oil production curb he can credibly sell as energy price stabilisation.
17 Oct 22
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Brazil hopeful of de-globalization, as US/China technology clash escalates
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Brazil did not enjoy the globalization process that started in the 1980s to its fullest potential. Still, it may have a second chance now amid the current de-globalization process – essentially an adjustment of globalization.
Two episodes from last week suggest that a new window of opportunity is opening for Brazil to enhance its international engagement, points out Valor Economico, the country's leading financial daily .
From 1990 to the present day, the share of emerging countries in global exports has more than doubled. However, Brazil’s participation has grown at a much slower rate, at around 20%. Moreover, during this period, Brazilian exports concentrated on primary goods, with a loss of market share in manufactured products.
Now, the world is going through a period of confrontation between the old hegemonic superpower, the USA, and an emerging superpower, China. The relationship between the two countries has been deteriorating as Washington tries to slow down Chinese technological development, and Beijing adopts more aggressive stances in its foreign relations.
This tension leads to various challenges. The West is blocking the export of high-tech items to China while seeking to reduce its dependence on Chinese products and inputs. Western companies are encouraged to reduce their exposure to China through processes like “de-risking,” which involves moving parts of their production chains to more friendly countries, and “friend-shoring,” which is about collaborating with nearby nations or “near-shoring.”
Many analysts describe this as a process of de-globalization or the reversal of globalization, but it’s more likely to be an adjustment within the context of the last 40 years of globalization due to global geopolitical changes. This shift seems to be creating opportunities for countries like Brazil.
Continue reading.
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fyihistory · 8 months
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THE GENPEI WAR: RISE OF THE SAMURAI.
The Genpei War, a pivotal chapter in Japanese history, didn't erupt overnight. It was the culmination of a complex and tumultuous political landscape in late Heian Japan. To truly appreciate the significance of this conflict, let's journey back in time and explore the intricate web of political rivalries, power struggles, and events that led to the outbreak of the Genpei War.
In the late 11th and 12th centuries, the Japanese Imperial Court held a prestigious but largely symbolic role. True political power had shifted into the hands of provincial warriors, the samurai, leaving the Imperial Court weakened and divided by factionalism.
One of the dominant factions in this era was the Taira clan, led by the influential Taira Kiyomori. Kiyomori's rise to power was marked by cunning political maneuvering and the placement of loyal Taira members in key government positions.
Rivaling the Taira were the Minamoto, led by the ambitious Minamoto Yoritomo. They sought to challenge Taira's supremacy and establish their own influence within the Imperial Court.
Both Taira and Minamoto clans manipulated the Imperial Court in their favor. Behind-the-scenes maneuvering and political intrigue became commonplace as they vied for control and influence.
The spark that ignited the Genpei War was the dispute over the imperial succession. When Emperor Takakura passed away in 1180, two potential heirs emerged, each backed by a different faction. Emperor Antoku, supported by the Taira, and Emperor Go-Toba, supported by the Minamoto, became pawns in this high-stakes power struggle.
Adding fuel to the fire were local disputes and conflicts over territories and resources, further destabilizing the already fragile political landscape.
The Genpei War was not merely a clash of armies; it was a culmination of years of political maneuvering, deep-seated rivalries, and power struggles that transformed Japan forever.
In the coming posts, we will journey deeper into the heart of this conflict, exploring its major battles, key figures, and its profound impact on Japanese society and governance.
Stay tuned as we unravel the epic saga of The Genpei War, one of the most transformative chapters in Japan's history!
References:
"Samurai: The Making of Japan's Warrior Elite" by Karl F. Friday
"The Tale of the Heike" translated by Helen Craig McCullough
"The Cambridge History of Japan, Volume 2: Heian Japan" edited by Donald H. Shively and William H. McCullough
"Warriors of Japan: As Portrayed in the War Tales" by Paul Varley
"A History of Japan: From Stone Age to Superpower" by Kenneth G. Hensha
"War and State Formation in Ancient China and Early Modern Europe" by Victoria Tin-bor Hui
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