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#and we were 5 on youtube trending! not bad!
dodgebolts · 1 year
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the moment that absolutely no one has been waiting for... here are the results of the dtblr survey that went out last week! Thank you to the 650 people who responded, easily eclipsing the 598 responses that were submitted in September :]
Open the read more to see the results!
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Starting out, we have a newcomer to our top 8, welcome Awesamdude, who stole a spot from Quackity (20.7% -> 3.1%). Since the last survey, more people say they main all 3 Dream Team members and less people are maining their friends, most of them slipping under 10% of respondents saying they mained them save for the lovely Foolish Gamers.
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Next, there was an increase in people who came for and still are here for the Dream Team—with a decrease in the proportion of respondents for nearly every other category. Dream team forever!
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While most people (85%) have been around before 2022, we have a greater proportion of newer people around now! In the last survey, that number was even greater at 93%. So don't feel bad for being new, it's actually way more likely than you think, and a very warm welcome to the 5% of people who joined after the face reveal/meetup <3
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Next is a question that I think is really interesting: has watching the Dream team influenced how people play Minecraft? More people now don't play as much, which tracks considering that they play Minecraft a lot less than they used to.
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Now for a rather sore subject for a lot of people, since there's been quite a shift in who plays in MCC since the last time. In the last poll, 60.8% of people said they watched Dream. Now, those viewers have dispersed across creators or just stopped watching altogether, with both George and Sapnap gaining 10% from their numbers in the fall. However, 25% of people said that they don't watch anymore, a huge jump from the 4.5% in the fall. RIP MCC Dream, you're missed severely by the community <3
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Next up, Trust Issues has managed to nearly catch up to some of Dream's released music, gaining 8 percentage points from the last survey. Dream if you're out there your fans want it really badly. Release it just for us?
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Since the fall, we've seen the official end of the DSMP, so this is more of a legacy question, which is reflected pretty well in the statistics shifting towards people who either don't watch or are very casual about it, our lorehead population shrinking by 4 percentage points from the first survey.
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These statistics haven't moved too much since the first one, the trends going pretty much as predicted with following decreasing from main -> alt -> priv (with the exception of Dream whose alt is often confused for his main) and with George and Sapnap having fewer people following them than Dream.
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The statistics shift from this question is really interesting, especially given all the shit that's gone down on Twitter since the first survey. The percentage of dtblr who joined the fandom on there increased 7.7%, a gain that knocked down nearly every other platform's percentages. AO3 also makes its debut in the top 6, tying with Reddit exactly.
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Much like the twitter following question, these statistics didn't shift too much, with the YouTube algorithm and word of mouth from other people/creators doing most of the heavy lifting of marketing for the Dream Team. Shoutout to the people who found out through either Heat Waves or MrBeast, you guys are on like 2 ends of a horrific spectrum y'all are strong as hell LOL
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Now for some shared fandom trauma, these results also didn't change too much from the first survey. However, for this iteration I added Supernatural, as I probably should've done the first time considering this IS the SPN website after all. I managed to grab a few more people than last time out of the 'none of the above' category with its inclusion, so hi all my former and current SPN bloggers o/ <- has never seen the show before
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A vast majority of us have watched gaming content in some form before, and fewer people this time have never watched gaming content before. From those who specified which games they'd watched, the titles ranged far and wide, so it's really cool to see all of us under the dtblr umbrella :)
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Once again, this question showcases how lurkers truly carry the community on their backs—there's a small decrease in lurkers from last time and an increase in blogging answers, so it seems like some of our lurkers started posting which is awesome :D
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Over half of us don't really watch any other MC servers, but there's still a ton of people who like watching them! From the last time I ran the survey, most of the servers—save for Empires and Karmaland—now have fewer dtblr watchers. The QSMP makes a strong debut on the board though, eclipsing half of the other options.
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This was a really interesting question, though it seems like the vast majority of people either continued posting on the same blog or took a break and just jumped back into the fray! Also a late welcome to the ~15% of people who either weren't here or started posting after <3
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The answers to this question showed some of the most interesting shifts from last fall's data. Fewer people seem to be listening regularly, and the proportion of people who responded no is nearly doubled from the fall's 21%.
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These data points were also really interesting to see shift from the fall! Of note, fewer people like and tolerate Jackbox, and more people seem to have warmed up to FPS games—Fortnite, CS:GO, and Valorant all have fewer people in the "don't like & won't watch" category. Still, Valorant is easily the most hated game of the 6 while Geoguessr is still almost universally loved/tolerated.
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As expected in the shipping category, DNF dominates any other ships, with Karlnap easily taking the second place. The proportion of Toosh enjoyers has doubled since the fall, up from 14.7%, while the number of non-shippers has halved. Additionally, the proportion of Karlnapity enjoyers has plummeted from 25.4% to less than 10%. Otherwise, most ships have stayed within 3-4 percentage points of their fall numbers!
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Once again, Dream seems to have forced the hands of nearly half of us, turning non-RPF shippers into the RPF fandom we are today. Interestingly, the number of "yes" respondents has nearly doubled from the fall, while fewer people responded that they still don't ship RPF. As would make Dream happy probably, the pie chart is colored blue and green.
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Now onto some of the demographic questions, we've continued to be very heavily biased towards North America and Europe, with nearly 85% of us coming from those two continents. Compared to the fall, we've gotten proportionally more South American and Oceanian rep. Hey to the Asians/Australians who are probably going to see this when it's first posted! o/
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Once again, the majority of us seem to be around the same age as our streamers, with 80% of us falling between the ages of 18 and 30. Don't fret, though! From the fall, the proportion of respondents in both the <18 and >30 age brackets have increased. All in all, nothing too surprising.
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The pride parade is still running from last fall, with approximately the same percentage of people identifying as LGBTQIA+ or unsure. Just in time for pride month in a day or so!
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I'm not sure if I was just miscounting but I could not for the life of me get all of these little squares into a proper rectangle, so just bear with my weird organization here. Regardless, the majority of us rep the blue and green as our favorite colors, with multiple people specifying the hex code of George's minecraft shirt or a classic teal.
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It's been about a month since this has been out, and we still unfortunately haven't gotten It Takes Two back. We're still in the phase 42% of people believe that we're going to stay in for a while, getting bounced back and forth between Dream and George hoping that they can get the other wrangled for it. #I_BELIEVE!
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This was kind of a cruel question for most of us, but to the 11 people who answered that have met any of them, know that you're in a very select group of users. I'm jealous!
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Now to answer the age-old question of the dtblr 1%, it constitutes those of you with around or over 5,000 followers, while a majority of people have less than 50 followers or just no blog at all. As with most other follower polls I've seen floating around, the responses were heavier towards the bottom, but as is the common advice/adage, follower count means very little here—just start chatting and posting!
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For the final question, I thought it'd be interesting to see what dtblr's academic interests are, and also to reaffirm or break my belief that George is like a flame to the moths of CS/Engineering-focused people, which was at least initially supported by the data from the fall. We've got people from all across the diversity of academic fields, with the most people indicating that they're interested in the arts and humanities.
As for my hypothesis: among non-George mains, the proportion of CS/Engineering people is about 5.5%, whereas 18.3% of George mains indicated that they're interested in CS/Engineering. In fact, I took a closer look at all the people who noted their interest in CS/Engineering, and nearly 70% of them said that they mained George. Like I said, moths to a flame. or something. I'm right there with y'all 🫡
That's all! Thanks so much to everyone for responding and waiting for me to get through all of this data, it's always a big task but I love seeing the results. Until next time!
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venusvity · 7 months
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.゚۪ ♡ ۫  ...     PRE-RELEASE SINGLE - DRAMA!
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DRAMA is one of two pre-release singles for VENUS' fourth full studio album. DRAMA will be promoted for TWO WEEKS until the next single is released.
.゚۪ ♡ ۫  ...     MUSIC VIDEO AESTHETICS.
The DRAMA music video received 45 MILLION VIEWS in 24 hours and would remain number one on the Youtube trending page for 6 days. The video follows the girls through a technicolored cyberspace as they fight against a virus only known as "DRAMA" which is depicted as a dark and rapid-moving shadow.
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.゚۪ ♡ ۫  ...     DRAMA LINE DISTRIBUTION.
.゚۪ ♡ ۫  … BAEBI = 28.20 SECONDS
.゚۪ ♡ ۫  … BLISS = 19.26 SECONDS
.゚۪ ♡ ۫  …  CHLOE = 49.15 SECONDS
.゚۪ ♡ ۫  … SENA = 17.29 SECONDS
.゚۪ ♡ ۫  … JIAH = 38.12 SECONDS
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.゚۪ ♡ ۫  ...     PROMOTIONAL HIGHLIGHTS.
The girls were promoting DRAMA consistently for two weeks. For a solid two weeks, the girls were at music shows or other schedules promoting their upcoming album, which they revealed the name of at the end of their promotional period for DRAMA.
The album is called "VENUS VICTRIX" and will have 11 tracks. The creative direction for the album will be handled by long-time VENUS creative director Adrian Reyes. This differs from their last comeback, Burn The Witch, which was fully controlled by Venus themselves. While on Knowing Brothers, Chloe admits the girls experienced a lot of stress from handling all aspects of the album. "It was too much. We would be up until 5 AM almost every night trying to get everything to work, and we agreed that for this album, we want more rest!" which earned laughs from the hosts and from fans alike.
During an episode of "Visting Venus," they had Adrian come on to explain the lore of the album to them in a classroom-like setting with the girls at desks and him at a chalkboard, pointing with a stick and aggressively writing with a red piece of chalk.
"It's basically, like, Venus' Victory. The girls are trapped in a harsh cyber world but manage to break out and transform the landscape into something habitable," Adrian would explain, drawing a loosely thrown-together professor-esque outfit and round specs. Klara, drawing a school uniform and thick-rimmed classes, would raise her hand. "And how will we break out from this world?" "Easy," Adrian starts, pulling down a projector screen that has three big words on it in comic sans font, "Dance, music, and friendship."
The video was a massive hit with fans and had them on the edge of their seats waiting for the album's release.
Though they gave it their all at every performance, it was clear the girls were tired and being overworked. In most vlogs, you'd often see members sleeping on one another during their breaks at music shows or expressing how sore they were from all the performing they were doing. The Venus members, with the exception of Klara, would assure fans they were fine and liked working especially. Klara, however, would go on to post a singular mirror selfie of herself at 3 AM on her Instagram story with the caption, "just got back. can't wait for my powernap before i have to go back lol" but the story was quickly deleted and followed by a video of the maknae laughing and apologizing.
"That was meant for my close friend. My bad, my bad! Stop worrying. I'm just complaining! I swear to God if y'all mass email Flowerbank I'll have a tantrum. Don't worry about me!"
While this moment went viral on stan Twitter, constellations couldn't help but to worry for the girls. However, their worries were seemingly quelled once they got another stage of DRAMA to entertain them.
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.゚۪ ♡ ۫  ...     LOOK BOOK.
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.゚۪ ♡ ۫  … LEFT 2 RIGHT: BLISS, BAEBI, CHLOE, SENA, AND JIAH
The girls wore wigs during their promotions, concealing their actual hair colors. While sometimes the wigs looked natural, especially Sena and Jiah's, there were times when the wigs looked straight from Party City. Due to their status in the industry, people called this style choice "camp" and praised them for it.
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YOU CAN GET YOUR DRAMA PHOTOCARDS HERE!
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Some things from Twitter I grabbed from the limited amount of time SatAM was trending.
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Thank you, team SatAM Reanimated. This is why I took 4 parts in that collab.
I think some need to realize localization does not equal bad. I can get behind "he's almost like a fairytale creature in that regard," but AM's "rad dude" contrasts more heavily with Mario at the time, I feel.
[More below cut]
Ex of localization: In Splatoon's Salmon Run, Mr Grizz is supposed to be the shady boss of the job you're working. The characteristics of a shady boss differ between cultures. In JP, he is characterized as overly nice and forgiving. In AM, he is characterized as ruthless, unforgiving, and rough, with the occasional compliment to keep you motivated. Either way, both cultures get the idea that something is fishy with this guy.
Bringing it back to Sonic, in both continuities, he is characterized as a carefree do-gooder with an attitude, more or less. He is cool. However, like the Splatoon example, he is given multiple ways to portray this to the right audience.
People have their aesthetic preferences, and it is incredibly convenient that we are able to communicate information across the globe, so we now know of these different interpretations, and can pick which one we like. It'd be one thing if that weren't the case, then I'd understand why people would be upset, because these interps would be gatekept from everyone else.
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This one I thought was funnier than the original. It's generalized. (That's the Archie comic font iirc. 🤓)
It reminds me of how many Sonic copycats there were around the mid-late 90s because of how successful of a character he was.
The drawing on the left reminds me of some arcade collection games I played on my Xbox as a kid.
That also reminds me how many people who defend SatAM are 90s kids. This was their first impression, and they love it. I'm the oddball youngin who so happened to prefer this version after typing "Sonic Cartoon" into YouTube in the year 2013, but it makes me wonder how old are these lil petty babies who have nothing better to do than complain about a cartoon animal? (Trust me, you are going to look pathetic regardless of your answer.)
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This one took me by surprise! Talk about sabotaging a Sonic story! I don't like this guy too much, but he is occasionally a credible source. I feel like that's the case in more recent times than say at least 10 years ago. This one you can take his word for, as there are mutple pieces of evidence to support this. (Im not your mom, do your own research. The feds wont be after you if you type "SatAM production history" into your search bar.) The first sentence is a full on mood. It felt like Lily Orchard's "Steven Universe is Garbage, Here's Why" video, and 90% of it is them struggling with story comprehension and changing their opinion every 5 minutes.
Anyway, I'm gonna go draw various localized characters, and there's nothing you can do to stop me! >:D
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hit-song-showdown · 1 year
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Year-End Poll #69: 2018
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[Image description: a collage of photos of the 10 musicians and musical groups featured in this poll. In order from left to right, top to bottom: Drake, Ed Sheeran, Bebe Rexha and Florida Georgia Line, Camila Cabello, Post Malone, Cardi B and Bad Bunny and J Balvin, Zedd and Maren Morris, Drake, Maroon 5. End description]
More information about this blog here
As mentioned in the previous poll, the streaming era led to artists finding a variety of new ways to gather chart success. Now that Billboard was factoring YouTube views into their chart data, viral videos and memes were able help give artists a wider audience that would also reflect on the charts. We can see this with the popularity of Drake's fifth album, Scorpion -- specifically the tracks God's Plan and In My Feelings. Along with the popularity of artists like Post Malone and 21 Savage, the sound of mainstream rap and hip-hop was becoming much more low tempo and "vibe-y".
We're also seeing the continuation of another rising trend from last poll. This is not the first time we've discussed a Latin music craze on this blog (the first being in the 1950's an the second in the 2000's), but now we're seeing it manifest as the mainstream English-speaking popularity of reggaeton and Latin trap. While we can see some of this influence in Camila Cabello's Havana, the song I want to highlight is I Like It by Cardi B, Bad Bunny and J Balvin. The song's hook not only centers around a prominent sample of boogaloo musician Pete Rodriguez's I Like It Like That, but the song itself features three Latin artists rapping in mostly Spanish verses. This song helped introduce Puerto Rican artist Bad Bunny to an English-speaking mainstream audience, to the point where he's not just a crossover success, but a popstar without any other qualifiers. Even as tropical house starts to fade in the mainstream pop sound, we'll continue to see reggaeton and trap cast a wide shadow over the charts.
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the5n00k · 1 year
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Scratch in Scratch the Surface vs I Wanna Dance With Some-Ollie
[[[spoilers for season 2]]]
Long post sorry
I've been comparing these two episodes a lot, especially after the song Ghosts Aren't the Enemy from Book Marks the Sprite reminding me SO much of Lose-Lose from season 1. The conflicts are pretty similar, Molly has to keep someone from finding out about Scratch because of real and disastrous consequences, although instead of the flow of failed phantoms, this season it's the ghost chaser Chens. They aren't directly comparable since the contexts are different (Libby is a close friend and Ollie is a romantic interest) ((I'M SPEAKING CANONICALLY DON'T KILL ME SHIPPERS)) and the plot of Some-Ollie isn't really "hide Scratch" it's more focused on Molly and Ollie's relationship and how Scratch is reacting to it. Speaking of which:
Scratch's reaction to Molly's concerns about Libby is very dismissive. He doesn't really care about her and he's not super invested in Molly's personal problems either. The only times he's helped her out (at this point in the series) is when it personally affects him or he feels familiar pity for her. (First Day Frights and The Best Concert Ever are good examples of this) He's not completely won over by her antics yet. And while he is concerned for her wellbeing at this point, it's more like the sort of concern and worry you feel when you see somebody who's clearly not gonna be able to make the entire 5k run. Like you're worried but it's better if you just don't get involved. Baseline empathy, really
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He does start cracking when Molly asks if she can tell Libby because she's misinterpreting the situation. Even during this, Molly doesn't break Scratch's trust and doesn't outright tell her without asking first. Knowing what we know about Scratch now, I think he's always had a soft spot for friendships and hates seeing them end, even subconsciously. He smiles as Molly runs away to catch up with Libby but he's still not happy about it. Yeah he warms up to Libby but telling anyone about him is a potential danger, especially if they feel the need to tell anyone else.
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And in Friend-Off, he didn't really have a justifiable reason to be a jerk to Libby other than Molly's scavenger hunt they were both forced to do. Everything he said (both of them said really) was out of a place of pure jealousy. He even admits that at the end of the episode.
What's important to point out is this entire episode he's only thinking about himself (not an uncommon trend for this character) and is only willing to sacrifice when pushed to do so. Not saying he's necessarily written badly in this episode, far from it, but it is quite a contrast between that and his actions in the season 2 episode 5a segment I Wanna Dance With Some-Ollie.
I'd like to preface this with one of the scrapped titles for this ep was "Molly's Choice" and I think that will haunt me till I die that's such an evil title
I Wanna Dance With Some-Ollie is a VERY compelling episode. While the set up for it and Scratch the Surface is similar, this one feels like it has more stakes involved. Molly has a crush on Oliver Chen, a ghost hunter, and you can see how that could immediately cause issues. Scratch is even more dismissive towards Molly at points because of this, even colder and snappier than some of season 1a in my opinion. (For good reason obviously) and while Scratch's concerns here are mostly fear for his own safety, it's also jealousy. If he was so worried about Ollie catching him, he wouldn't be around him at all, let alone trying to sabotage the dance.
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Molly doesn't take the threat the Chens pose very seriously and dismisses most of Scratch's concerns. (Not that she's a bad friend for this, she just thinks they're silly YouTubers and wants to enjoy a middle school dance) Scratch eventually blows up on her and they get into a rather brutal argument for an episode 5 of a DTVA show. It's presented in the usual silly way but they both say some rather insensitive things to each other in the heat of the moment.
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We've NEVER seen them disagree this hard on anything. They've had differing opinions before but neither of them is budging on this one. They split off and you can see what Molly said to him hurt. She seemingly chose what was more important to her. He seemed to look back as if he was debating on going back in to apologize to her for what he said and did too because she just wants to have a good time and he was trying to ruin that. But he decides he's the last thing she needs right now and starts to go home, only to get caught in a spectral snare.
Here's the REALLY important part I need y'all to listen closely:
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He had every right to an "I told you so". He had every right to tell her never to see Ollie again and to even consider moving just to save his metaphorical skin. But he doesn't. She apologizes first and he interjects with his own apology for trying to ruin her night. Her happiness is what's most important to him now. That priority shift happened since Out of House and Home, maybe arguably even sooner. He doesn't tell her never to see him again, in fact he IMPLIES that she should be able to do what she wants and he wouldn't interfere anymore. It was Molly's choice to cut it off with Ollie after seeing Scratch in that much danger.
He's still a self centered jerk with possessive tendencies and separation anxiety but it's important to point out that he recognizes Molly as her own person and he shouldn't interfere with her happiness. I think season 1a Scratch wouldn't have even LET her go to the dance with a ghost hunter as her co-chair to begin with. I know I don't need to defend Scratch's actions since most people are on his side in this episode (a weird change of pace) but I needed to get my thoughts out about him and his development so far. My boy has come so far, they feel like good, real friends. Also I'm just gonna reiterate Molly wasn't completely at fault here because she just wanted to enjoy the dance and both her and Scratch had equal fault in this scenario, that's called ✨good writing✨, you don't have to pick a side. THE WORLD ISN'T BLACK AND WHITE, OLLIE
I hope they address Scratch's jealous nature in a future episode, especially since they're hinting towards an Ollie redemption. After the ghost hunting fear is gone, that jealousy is gonna still be there, I'm kind of hoping after that talk outside of the school where Scratch resigned himself to whatever Molly wanted to do, he wouldn't be too jealous of him and we won't have a Friend-Off 2 or something. (Although if he decides to be a little petty and messes with Ollie a little, I welcome that. That sounds really funny honestly)
I feel like halfway through this I just started rambling, I hope my point made it across clearly LOL tldr; scratch is a well written character and he means so much to me and if I see any Molly/Ollie/Mollie slander on my account I will be throwing hands <3
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venomizedstar · 1 year
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Before I talked about some brazilian girl streamers who I would love to see on QSMP, now I'm going to talk about the boys!
Unfortunatly theres more boys than girls but I swear theyre all amazing! And also some of them just would be fun to have around If they were with some of the girls
1- Guaxinim Guagua Xinim
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Hes my sweet baby boy and I love him sooo much. Hes kinda everyone's friend, just not Forever (sadly, Forever is from a group of streamers and youtubers I don't watch) and if I remember he was in Fuga Impossível too. In the QSMP he probably would grind a little bit and flirt with everyone (but in a shy way). Beamom would flirt A LOT with him if she was there too.
2- Calango Lango
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He started his live as a youtuber and became Guaxi's friend, they and other friend, PK, lived in the same city and played a lot together. Right now hes playing Minecraft with a FUCKING GUITAR. He has a very good podcast. In QSMP he probably would grind a lot and not really focus on the RP, but if needed inside the lore, he would be amazing.
3- PK PKzão
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The last one from the UberlândiaTrio! I just put him there bc my brain can't separate the three of them, like... I watch them since I was a kid and they're my babies, but I'm 70% sure PK would never be on QSMP, he don't like the attention. PK probably would be too antisocial to interact with people (Guaxi would drag him around) but would help decorating, building and grinding!
4- Mount
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Hes just a silly little guy who likes to kiss the homies goodnight. When you're searching for the other brazilian men streamers, sometimes you can find a picture of him kissing them! Like, out of nowhere, just a little kiss in the mouth between friends to make the friendship became stronger. I usually don't watch his gameplays so I don't know how he would be on Minecraft, but he played on Cellbit's RPG and I love to see him and his friends joking with each other.
5- LJoga Luisão
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Hes the "always single" friend, an amazing and lovely guy who has the record of more dead characters on Cellbit's RPG. He would interact a lot with the lore I think, and flirt with everyone. I don't know about grind bc I usually watch him playing more chill games.
6- Rakin Rakinzera
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THIS GUY was a fucking League of Legends Proplayer, this guy is really competitive, THIS FUCKING GUY was the FIRST brazilian to achieve level 100 in hardcore on Diablo 4 and one of the first 20 in the world! And the 3 characters he has in Cellbit's RPG are ALL amazing, I can't understand HOW he can be so good in everything. He would grind A LOT, he plays World of Warcraft too, of course he likes to grind, he probably would grind even more than Etoiles! And actively participate on the lore (his girlfriend would ship him with other random guys too, just like Lorena, Sabi, Munza, etc).
7- Cinemagrath Matt
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Hes Bagi's boyfriend, a really good photographer who also have a stream account. I don't watch him, unfortunatly, BUT I know that if he was on QSMP with his girlfriend, he would be as bad as Pac and Quackity, flirt with EVERY GUY in the island, support Gabi while shes flirting with the girls and they would have a cute little house with a dog.
8- Gary
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I don't really know if he knows english, but hes amazing! It would be worse understanding him than Forever! Hes MAMADISSIMO and would be as chaotic as Vegetta with the mines. Also, bônus If hes with Beamom: the two of them are a really chaotic and amazing duo! Joking with each other and just... Idk, probably she would be better at the game than him and would need to help him with some things.
9- Goularte
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Gou is a really chill guy known as the "asmr voice guy" here in Brazil bc he talks so softly... He never screams! Last year he was trending bc he screamed TWO times, one of them being during Cellbit's RPG. Would be amazing seeing him playing on QSMP, bc even tho we know he plays games, hes since the start a guy who talks about things with some gameplays on the background! He also have a Channel on Youtube with PK just for bad horror games.
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lastweeksshirttonight · 11 months
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Hey uh remember when I did retrospectives of Last Week Tonight episodes? Let's bring it back to 140.
Last Lee Tonight (wherein I'm definitely showing United Passions at my next bad movie night) Season One, Episode Six
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(original air date: 6/8/2014) Major topics covered: FIFA, Bashar al-Assad's incredible iTunes library
"And speaking of Germans losing things, it was the 70th anniversary of D-Day this week."
It's really nice to throw this show back on again, on a note unrelated to the purpose of this project. I don't talk much about myself but it's been a rough few months with work scheduling, my chronic illnesses, and my mental health. For every "I'm taking a very spontaneous and ill-thought-out trip to New York to see John Oliver WOOO!" moment, there's been at least five "why can't I catch a break"s. When I'm not being beaten down by the collective forces of capitalism, I genuinely haven't been watching much John at all, mainly in an effort to play the large backlog of video games and read the large pile of books lying around my house. I've been moderately successful there (hey y'all should give Cassette Beasts a go, it's delightful), but there's nothing like going back home, so to speak. (I hesitate to call LWT a comfort show for me, given that it's basically A Record of the Decline of the United States in Real Time, but it kinda serves that function to some degree. I am a psychopath.)
Where we last left off in... May, Jesus Christ, I'm so bad at scheduling and writing and content creation - when we last left off in May at Episode 5, things were finally starting to coalesce into the modern LWT experience. We had our first viral segment on Net Neutrality, the first time a segment was uploaded in full to the LWT YouTube, and an opening news roundup that was starting to feel more thoughtful and themed. This episode continues that theme and gives us our second big viral topic.
There is a variant on the desk-slapping here, where John doesn't do it to open the show, but does a milder version of it to get the audience to shut up so he can move on with doing the show. One of my favorite things about him is his constant desire to barrel through clapping or any audience praise of anything he's done at a given moment in time and this opener is a pretty good example of that.
We open on John calling the week disappointing because California Chrome, a horse competing for the Triple Crown, did not win the Triple Crown. You can tell this is an early episode of LWT because there is no prerequisite horse-fucking/bestiality joke, just John angrily saying "fuck that horse" about Tonalist, the horse that defeated California Chrome. All of these horses sound like indie bands from my college years. I feel like Tonalist opened when I saw MGMT live.
We then move into German Who Wants to Be a Millionaire. This gives John an opportunity to plumb one of his favorite comedic depths, making fun of the musicality, smoothness, and romanticism of the German language. A German man used his lifeline to call Chancellor Merkle, who, thankfully, did not answer, as she was busy running Germany.
This transitions into China hiding the events of Tiananmen Square from their populace, including by censoring the Internet.
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Attempts by protestors to use different trending words - and to put facts about Tiananmen Square in a sex tape - to get around that were also clamped down on, leading to this absolutely glorious screenshot of John's hypothetical romance novel:
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I feel like someone on Reddit probably wrote When Spring Turns to Summer recently.
We also learn that Friends is incredibly popular with Chinese youth. I'm not really shocked by this, Friends has a weird international reach. I know multiple Korean idols who learned English partially through watching Friends. The fact that there's a Chinese replica of Central Perk? That's wild. The show edits a Friends clip to include historical facts about the massacre, and then we move to our central story.
I'm a big fan of whenever John talks about FIFA and football in general. Recently in one of her "posts relevant to my interests", @tellthemeerkatsitsfine noted that there's a strain with John and his contemporaries with them being nerds who really wanted to be jocks, and I think that dichotomy really helps John come off credibly when he talks about the deep-rooted corruption in this particular organization. The sport is something that is literally rooted into him, hardwired as something he deeply cares about... but there's the rest of it to consider.
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In my opinion, someone who deeply loves something can really be the best at describing everything wrong with it. You don't really find the grime if you're only on the surface of something. I know that critical observation of a fandom while in said fandom is in short supply these days, but I wish it was more common.
Anyways. I think FIFA's corruption and grotesqueries are pretty known in 2023, but at the time, knowledge of their fuckery wasn't as widespread. Socially, we've definitely spoken a lot more about the cost-benefit analysis of the Olympics and taxpayer-funded stadiums, which is comparative to John's opening about the issues with FIFA and claims that World Cups bring money to the areas hosting them. (Not true!) Other items I'd completely forgotten about, like FIFA Court and their boardroom looking like something out of Dr. Strangelove.
The "And Now This" is "Chris Matthews Reminds Everyone Who He Used to Work For". (Answer: Tip O'Neill.) My abiding memory of Chris Matthews is Zell Miller accusing him of beating a woman and challenging him to a duel at the 2004 Republican National Convention.
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SNL had a pretty great sketch of this where Will Forte played Miller that I can't find right now. PISTOLS AT DAAAAAAAAWN MATTHEWS!!!!
The final segment is on Bashar al-Assad's campaign of terror against Syria, rigged electioneering, and chemical warfare. More importantly, al-Assad's life history and iTunes library are discussed.
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This was also the subject of the classic Bugle episode 187, which has a chance to go far more in depth about his favorite music, like "Sexy and I Know It". (Andy Zaltzman describing Lil Wayne and Busta Rhymes as a doubles tennis group is one of my favorite Bugle moments of all time incidentally.)
Right Said Fred coming out to perform an anti-Assad version of "I'm Too Sexy" gives us the first time John has had a celebrity come out basically to troll one single person, and thus almost the cornerstones of modern LWT have been established. Eagerly awaiting the first bestiality joke. Also, really love the changed lyrics, they put a hell of a lot of effort into this one. I wanna see Right Said Fred live now.
Random notes:
Lee will continue sexualizing one (1) older man damn it: light blue and dark blue checked shirt, black tie, and black jacket? I know I've said red is John's color but light blue is a very close second, 10/10
I feel like I made up for not doing these for two months by writing about five year's worth of unnecessary analysis of this damn episode. Hopefully you enjoyed it!
It was amazing seeing an ESPN ad for something not handegg-related. -groan-
LWT YouTube is still a bit confused, as we did get the two major topics as their own videos... and then 1 minute of the FIFA section as its own minisode. I really would love to know the logic behind why there specific jokes were isolated like this in the beginning of the show's airing.
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My sausage, if anyone cares, is the Korean idol industry. It's an absolute cataclysmic nightmare and yet there's a lot there personally that changed me and a lot that I love out of it. It's complicated. Fuck SM Entertainment.
A reminder that John's LMFAO fandom has endured for a decade longer than the band itself lasted:
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frozenearthwife · 1 year
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How popular is RWBY on Crunchyroll?
We all know that view numbers are key when it comes to media. Good or bad ratings doesn't matter THAT much; even bad ratings can get a show renewed if it results in a lot of views.
RWBY V9 is locked behind a Premium CR subscription and needs all the views it can get in order to be greenlit for V10 and beyond.
So how is V9 faring so far; can we figure it out?
Here is some stupid maths because I have a weird interest in statistics.
(Spoiler: I'd say it seems like RWBY is doing pretty good on Crunchyroll, according to this stupid math.)
Some data
On CR there is no way for us to see actual view numbers, but we do have some other numbers to work with and make assumptions off of.
Per August 2021 CR had 5 million paying subscribers. It's fair to assume this number may have grown, since it has only been growing since the start. Number of Crunchyroll subscribers 2012-2021 | Statista
Between January and March 2020 the most watched anime on CR was Attack on Titan. Crunchyroll shares viewership data January through March 2020 | Neon Sakura
If we look at Youtube we can see the amount of views per video, as well as how many likes the video has. I haven't used dislikes in this scenario, but chose videos that fairly surely has way more likes than dislikes. Based on the astounding amount of 8 totally random Youtube videos, ranging from 55000 to 18 000 000 views, there is an average of 6% thumbs up compared to the amount of views. (Side note: None of the videos had more than 8% thumbs up compared to the amount of views, EXCEPT RWBY V1 EP1 which has 15% thumbs up compared to the amount of views.)
This indicates that A) Giving a thumbs up is rather rare and/or B) One person will view the video many times, but can only leave one thumbs up.
Either way, there is way more views than thumbs up, and we'll assume this trend carries over to CR as well.
Calculating episode views on CR
If we look at RWBY volume 9, episode 2, it has 2700 thumbs up per 28th February 2023.
If we assume the same average we found on Youtube is correct for Crunchyroll too, that means 2700/6*100 = at least 45000 views of this episode, since its release on Saturday (that's four days ago).
Episode 1, which released 10 days ago, has 4200 thumbs up. Using the same maths, we can assume the episode has been viewed at least 70 000 times since its release.
Side note, S1 EP1 of RWBY has 3100 thumbs up on CR, which would mean at least 51666 viewings on CR since its release there in 2013. Seeing as this episode of RWBY also aired for free on Youtube and has 16 million views on Youtube, it's a bit hard to compare this episode to anything else using only CR as a source.
Show rating
RWBY as a show has 6200 ratings on CR per 28th February. Being a nerd, I've checked every day since V9 released and observed that the amount of ratings has increased by about 100 every single day (before V9 there were about 4800 ratings or something).
This means more people are watching and rating the show on CR now.
Comparison with other shows on CR
Attack on Titan has 98100 ratings on CR.
In other words, RWBY has about 6% the number of ratings as AOT. No surprise there, RWBY is a freaking webshow that has also been airing for free on other platforms for a long time.
But how much do these show ratings count? We don't know. We must assume that the amount of actual episode viewings are more important.
If we compare episodes then:
S1 EP1 of AOT released in 2013 on Crunchyroll. It has 20 300 thumbs up, which using this stupid math would equal at least 338 333 views. That's about 270 000 more views than V9 EP1 of RWBY. And this AOT episode released 10 years ago. Does it also have 16 million views on other platforms, like RWBY V1 EP1 has? Quite possibly.
Let's compare RWBY to another, newer anime: Trigun stampede. Trigun EP1 aired on January 7th, 2023. EP1 has 1700 thumbs up. That's already far less than RWBY V9 EP1 (which has 4200), despite the fact that the show itself has 12400 ratings compared to RWBYs 6100.
You'd assume a show with more show ratings would have a higher view count than shows with less show ratings. But what does it mean then, when the actual episode has such a big difference in the number of thumbs up?
We can assume some things without knowing for sure: 1) Maybe RWBY fans more often rate both the show AND the episodes (not just the show). 2) Maybe RWBY fans rate single episodes more often than Trigun fans in general. 3) The amount of ratings on RWBY as a show is climbing, which means more people are watching and rating it on CR now that V9 is airing there exclusively. This would include long-term fans who usually watched it on RTs site and thus never left a rating on CR before now. This could indicate that the amount of show ratings for RWBY is artificially small on CR, and will become more realistic as V9 progresses.
Again though, the amount of show ratings might not matter that much compared to actual episode views. 5) I know nothing about Trigun. Or Crunchyroll's statistics...
Conclusion
RWBY is at the very least garnering more views than before on CR, with increasing amount of show ratings, and a good number of thumbs up per episode which can at the very least give us an indication of amount of views according to this stupid math. And compared to a show like Trigun, it actually seems to be getting more views per episode (according to the amount of thumbs up) so...
I'd say it seems like RWBY is doing pretty good on Crunchyroll?
According to this stupid math.
My god I spent so long on this holy fuck why in the actual hell
EDIT: I forgot to add that these numbers EXCLUDES Asia, since they cannot use Crunchyroll (most people don't have a VPN). We have no idea how many people watches RWBY in Asia, but considering it got its own freaking Japanese dub and an original anime... well. A lot. So wherever RWBY V9 will air for Asia, it will boost these numbers significally.
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thececeverse · 2 months
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Japanese Influencer Chouka Aikawa Makes Her Debut—And Netizens Are Pleasantly Surprised
April 6th, 2024
by E. Cha
After signing to Republic Records and Avex Trax at the end of last year, Japanese fashion influencer, YouTuber, and heiress Chouka Aikawa has finally made her debut as a singer. Since 2015, Aikawa has been prominent within the world of fashion. Her blog, Love Moda, began to see huge amounts of success by 2017, and unlike most 18-year-olds, Aikawa was seeing invites to fashion events across the world. Her namesake YouTube channel was launched the same year, and it has now gone on to amass over 11 million subscribers in just six years.
With her successful career as an influencer and status as the sole heiress to the Aikawa Group’s $480 billion fortune, many were wondering why Aikawa wanted to break into the music industry. Prior to December of last year, she had expressed little to no interest in beginning a music career, nor had she displayed any musical talents. So, of course, her signing to two major players in the music industry was surprising to many of her fans.
However, just as the New Year was approaching, Aikawa would take to social media to wish her fans a Happy New Year, as well as to promise them a music debut in the first quarter of 2024.
It was a pleasant surprise for Aikawa’s fans, and reactions ranged from ecstatic to confused. Some were even mildly skeptical, as her singing ability was a complete mystery. For the most part, it looks like everyone was eager to see what Aikawa had in store. And it wasn’t just her fans, either. The music industry and the general public as a whole were itching to weigh in on her debut.
YouTubers and influencers tend to have a bad reputation with releasing their own music, and many were waiting to see if Aikawa would unfortunately succumb to the same fate. But fortunately for her, it was the exact opposite. Aikawa’s debut single, “Girls Don’t Cry,” is a dreamy and lighthearted pop track that talks about the plights women face in society. The song’s music video garnered over 32 million views within its first 24 hours, and it immediately shot to the top spot on YouTube’s trending page. However, what did the viewers think?
Overall, reception was overwhelmingly positive. Fans loved the “girlishness” of the track and how Aikawa stuck to her classic hyperfeminine aesthetic, and critics hailed the fresh-sounding production. What everyone was most surprised at, though, was how good of a singer Aikawa was.
Fans were all over social media praising her vocals and how clear she sounded, despite her “breathy” voice and unique accent. The shock from fans and critics only grew larger, however, when the song’s producer—music industry legend Max Martin—revealed on his Instagram that no autotune was used to pitch correct Aikawa’s vocals, praising her diction skills. That certainly threw fans for a loop, and Martin’s words became a hot topic across the internet, certainly making praise towards Aikawa increase.
“Girls Don’t Cry” is slated to enter the Top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100, but some say it could even enter the Top 10. We’ll have to wait and see where Aikawa’s budding music career takes her, but we wish her all the best for now.
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˗ˏˋ ꒰ ♡ ꒱ ˎˊ˗ WHAT DO NETIZENS THINK … ?!
[+2090, -91] oh my god chouka’s debut is actually so incredible … like genuinely so pleasantly surprised she did such a good job !
[+2074, -82] found out chouka can sing today … love that for her actually like c’mon princess of pop
[+2012, -59] rich as fuck, can dress, has a man that literally worships the ground she walks on, and now a critically acclaimed debut ….. aikawa chouka has it all i fear
[+1895, -88] she’s kinda like wonyoung but 5 years older idk
[+2009, -27] gabbie hanna found DEAD !
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suenitos · 1 year
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its rlly interesting hearing everyones canon events for what got them here the diversity in peoples reactions to dream or dnf or dteam and parasocialism etc is actually breathtaking. anyway here's mine (with most of the journey as a bonus) that no one asked for. WARNING IT'S LONG:
i was more of a slow burn in that i first became aware of who the hell dream (i think george too?) was during summer 2020 when the maia thing was happening (i think it was trending or something and EVERYONE knew her from prom dress so i was like hey i know her!), though i dont remember all of the details i just remember thinking "ok!" then closing the twitter app. didn't pay it any mind.
later i started to get dteam content on my tiktok fyp from compilations and thought why the hell not and started to watch them on youtube. i found the mc tag video and was HOOKED with the solo dnf challenge videos. fell out of it for a while because online school then came back officially on november 16 when unus annus ended and lmanberg exploded and i needed something else to obsess over to cope with isolation. i dont quite remember when quackity came into the equation but he was THE reason i got into cdnf (and lore too i guess) because he gave us the only pov of the dethronement and that was the first lore stream i watched live. i remember recognizing him from the raids and discords got talent videos and got more into him and dteam at the same time especially as 5/5 became a thing (so you can see why i was hurt really bad when april happened lol)
another part of it was heat waves.. i was pretty opposed to it at first because after dan howell's coming out i thought rpf was inherently invasive to content creators. and to be fair there was a lot of freaknasty shit written about phan that made them uncomfortable! but since i have no morals i caved and read it anyway under the justification that everyone kept saying this is really good characterization and writing so why not! (up until chapter 3 was released at this time) i finally decided to register for an ao3 account along with thousands of other people (before the waiting list got really long lol) and read it and well. here we are
the parasocial drontroversy was happening around this time too and i sort of talked about it but that indirectly caused me to lurk for the entirety of 2021 mostly on tiktok and twitter and twitch (i knowwww. it was pretty bad). part of that too was because of the drontoversies so i avoided engaging directly until i knew for sure that dream wasn't the evilest man ever. i was really cautious about him because i had this assumption of his character (white cis het (lol) man raised republican) but after seeing his growth and learning a bit about him i grew out of my initial timidity and embraced the stan label (in secret). i was also a big youtube viewer too i loved the animations people made and still do! a xanyleaves manhunt animation also convinced me to watch manhunt and dteam (any object show fans here lol?) i got sick of doing that and not dumping everything in my brain somewhere my irls wouldn't see so i lurked here for a while and officially joined in january 2022. it was pretty fun! but then after a while you could tell the wheels were falling off the wagon!
i left for probably a month following the drituation drop (still lurking for updates etc) but then decided to come back with a different account because 1. i decided for myself that it was ultimately a nothing burger after seeking out evidence when i was ready 2. i was sick of using that blog as a sideblog and this is all i blog about anyway 3. i was lonely :( i missed the few mutuals i had and seeing life on the dash. i also just wanted to help build something healthier from before. i think the christmas streams were the first time i felt READY and sure to actively come back and my time here here has been really wonderful for the most part. this is MY toxic radioactive echo chamber dumpster and i love being a bacteria living in it.
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kindahoping4forever · 2 years
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Hi Crystal!
Just saw the tags on one of your latest posts (about a possible drop of a new single).
You mentioned Bad Omens apparently being in the running for a single release. Why would we assume that? Were there any hints? I'm really not in the loop regarding any speculations so I'm just curious why that song specifically is considered to be the possible next drop.
Then you also mentioned that mm&i didn't take off as expected (I also thought it would create more of a stir, I'm really surprised it didn't). Do you have an opinion on why that is? I feel like you always have very good insights into the music industry and know way more about how things work than I do.
Hope you're having a nice day and thanks for your amazing work for this blog! 🧡
Aww thanks for being interested in my tag ramblings, I'm more than happy to expound on them! 🤗💙
I'd been assuming Bad Omens would be a pre-release drop based on the tracklist order - it's smack in the middle of all the other songs we've already heard and so it'd make sense to frontload the album with those songs so the rest of it would be a fresh experience. (Plus, CALM also had 5 pre-release singles and they were all also grouped together on the album. And if you want to take that logic even further, all the songs they previewed live on the 5SOS3 tour are sequenced together on Youngblood as well.)
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As for the success of MM&I, it's definitely an industry issue as far as how Billboard charting currently works and how radio stations program their playlists. The MM&I video quickly accumulated millions of views and was on the YouTube trending page for at least a day after release and yet for many ridiculous reasons, those streams don't hold much weight on the chart (for example, did you know that streaming from the free version of YT or Spotify counts as less of a stream than if you were paying for the service?! 🙄) Radio station formatting is a game of kickbacks, algorithms and ad sales at this point so unless you're a huge artist or there's some sort of viral angle to build off of, it's hard to break thru organically.
Complete Mess did as well as it did because it had the angle of it being their first release in 2 years - MM&I is undeniably more classically suited as a 'radio hit' but with no 'story' or trend to accompany the release, there's no incentive for radio to bite. It looks like it's managed to get somewhat of a foothold on the Adult Top 40 chart (unsurprising as CM performed best in the Adult Contemporary formats - MM&I is currently #29) but it never made it near mainstream charts such as the Hot 100 or even Bubbling Under (the chart for slow burners that are about to break thru).
The band and their label are undoubtedly aware of this conundrum and are hopefully adjusting the goalposts/expectations accordingly. It's just frustrating to see something that should be so simple (X amount of people listened to this song = this chart placement) continue to twist into such a weird and unfair metric system.
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emreveria · 23 hours
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Fanart of Ana Huang's 'Twisted Love' (the parasite in me urged me to make this)
very messy review of that book below !<3
First of all: I was not a fan of the Book nor the twisted series (i read them all except the last one, im still at like 75% because there are simply too many books id rather waste my time reading)-
the reason i even read as much as i did is because a friend of mine decided to read the first one & convinced me that they were so bad we would have a great time making fun of them/ hating on them: keep your friends close& enemies closer type beat
im definitely not the best (or a good) writer or critic but i am an avid fanfiction reader/ cartoon enjoyer so trust me when i say the 'twisted love' plot is like a badly written scooby doo episode: all characters feel soulless & ive watched bts oneshots on youtube that had more interesting/ suprising plottwists.
The Playlist at the beginning of the book is incredibly dated and to this day i dont understand why it is even there because it adds nothing (this trend continues in the other books of the series btw). example: Burn by Ellie Goulding, also: direct mention of Hot N Cold by Katy Perry (its in the second book but i had to include that)
While the MC, Ava Chen, is an obvious self insert (& constantly ovulating by the number if times shes thristy beyond help), she often gets weirdly sexualized AND infantilized (yep) in the book. Her whole Personality is Suneshine (the trope), Baking & photography.
the story has the weirdest timeskips, hypersexualizes everyone and everything to the point that its sometimes comedic & dual pov so you can get behind the thought process of the most obnoxious male lead there is: Alex Volkov (iq over 140, build& moves like a panther, VERY DANGEROUS!!!)
Everytime Alex opens his mouth theres a 50/50 chance hes saying something so incredibly edgy in the sense that hes definitely kinning sasuke and or shadow the hedgehog. And if hes not saying it, hes thinking it: "i wasnt a protector, i was a destroyer" like who even is he...
They behave like that one PDA-heavy middleschool couple everyone thought was cringe (Ava:1 Alex:0)
overall i give it 2/5 stars because it did make me laugh a few times, but also gag (a lot)
i have nothing against fans of the series [another rant incoming] but every book in the series follows the same pattern & PLEASE there are soooo many better books to read with an actual plot and interesting characters/ character dynamics/ relationships. Twisted is just badly written Literary Porn thats it.
i reccomend just taking a peek at what ao3's het/ explicit/ between 10-20k words section has to offer if you just want pwp!
- just found out through the spanish(?) wikipedia that ana huang started as a wattpad writer and that makes so so so much sense to me
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gaykarstaagforever · 19 days
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I finally watched a Game Theory video - back from the MatPat era - after years of not, because it looked like Gen Z kids content.
And I was right, that's exactly what it is. Which doesn't make it bad, but I wasn't 12 in 2015, so I'm not really about the vibe. They're fine for what they are, though. I like the overanalyzing of goofy shit; there is an esteemed tradition of that. I watched the one about how the Nurse Joys in Pokémon could very much be Pokémon themselves. He gets into all that fun weird dark Japanese folklore stuff that has always been a part of Pokémon, but was deftly minimized or taken out in the Western adaptations. He talks about Pokémon breeding and why Meowth talks. It is comprehensive. I appreciate that.
He REALLY does that voice the entire time. I always assumed people making fun of him were exaggerating, but nope. Yikes. That gets a little alot after a few minutes. Again, for kids' content in the style of 10 years ago, I get the Morning Zoo, over-the-top energy thing. Even if I don't like it. And Matt's success obviously inspired a lot of lesser gaming channels to copy that, which is...well. That isn't Matt's fault, but I still blame him for the plague that is those channels.
No I don't need his other 5 or whatever channels of him doing this about other stuff. This is like the Simon Whistler shit. Like, if people need you doing all this, I don't blame you for doing it, but give someone else a chance, you know? Plus I'm confident most of this is a "strike while the iron is hot," cynical money-making thing. Matt at least employs a bunch of people as part of a network, so until we hear stories of abusive labor practices, whatever. But any of this "YouTube is now TV and I need to be rich doing it as a job" shit inherently pisses me off. SEO, trend-chasing, clickbait crap. Boo. It has decidedly not led to better content.
I get why Matt retired. How long was he going to keep this personality / format going? It is certainly very dated, and his original audience is inevitably aging out of it. And loyal nostalgic hangers-on aren't going to keep these numbers up. He is still doing well, but it's probably a good idea to duck out while he's still relatively on top. Plus he's still young enough to pursue other, more interesting, more adult, things, even if it's just running the business. Avoid the Morgz thing where you hang on so long you end up hating it and yourself for doing it.
POKÉMON AND HUMANS USED TO FUCK! THAT'S PART OF THE LORE! THEN WE TURNED ON THEM AND ENSLAVED THEM! BUT THEY CAN TURN INTO PEOPLE, AND PEOPLE CAN TURN INTO THEM..?! And everyone thinks the dog fighting aspect of it is the weirdest part.
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mikeo56 · 4 months
Video
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I wasn't worried about climate change. Now I am.
YouTube has removed the dislike counter, but the numbers are still available backstage. And I can tell you that my most disliked videos, by far, are those on climate change. Doesn’t matter if it’s good news or bad news, some people it seems reflexively dislike anything about the topic. Every time. And to be honest, I can kind of understand that. It’s a little tiresome, isn’t it? Climate change, extreme weather, heat records, blabla, we’ve heard this for so long. And look we’re still here. Stop talking about it already, I get it. And I’d really rather talk about some fun new physics stuff. But I feel like I need to tell you about this because the lives of hundreds of millions of people depend on it. Climate scientists are having an argument about a number. One single number called the climate sensitivity. I don’t like what I’ve read, it really worries me, and I think you should know. I know you expect me to be funny-haha, not funny-peculiar. But I’m afraid this video will be more on the peculiar side. Why does Sabine worry about climate change, and why now? That’s what we’ll talk about today.
2023 was the hottest year on record, since the beginning of records in the mid-19th century. Not just the average temperature increased to never before seen levels, in many places heat waves were also longer and hotter than ever before. In February, Antarctic sea-ice reached an absolute record low since the beginning of satellite measurements in 1979, and global ocean temperatures reached a new record, too. I don’t know about you, but to me that sounds pretty bad. Now, it’s possible that 2023 was somewhat of an outlier, and average temperatures will somewhat decrease in the next few years. There are several reasons for this.
First, there’s just regression to the mean. But second, there’s also that in 2023 we switched from a La Nina to an El Nino phase. The La Nina, El Nino phases are quasi-periodic global climate pattern. These phases switch somewhat irregularly, but roughly every 2-3 years, and the El Nino phase that we just switched to is typically somewhat warmer. So, next year might break more records because it’ll still be El Nino, but in 2 or 3 years, we might see a slight cooling.
And third, some researchers have speculated that part of this year’s warming might have to do with a decrease in pollution over the oceans, caused by new regulations of ship exhausts. It’s somewhat unclear how large this effect is, but we do know that air pollution does indeed have a cooling effect, so maybe that’s part of the reason. Be that as it may, I worry that even if 2024 is not a new record breaker, the overall trend in the next years will be steeply up and the situation is going to deteriorate rapidly. The reason is to do with a quantity called climate sensitivity.
Climate sensitivity, contrary to what you might think, is not what makes people hit “dislike” on climate change videos. It’s a property of climate models. It’s the temperature change that one finds in a model when one doubles atmospheric carbon dioxide over the levels of pre-industrial times, and then waits for the system to come into equilibrium. In the literature it’s called the “Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity”, ECS for short. This equilibrium climate sensitivity isn’t something we directly observe because no matter how much they dig in Saudi Arabia, in reality carbon dioxide levels don’t suddenly jump by a factor two. However, it’s a useful quantity to gauge how strongly a model will react to changes in carbon dioxide. And this climate sensitivity is the key quantity that determines the predictions for how fast temperatures are going to rise if we continue increasing carbon dioxide levels. Up to 2019 or so the climate sensitivity of the world’s most sophisticated climate models was roughly between 2 and 4 point 5 degrees Celsius. These big climate models are collected in a set that’s called the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP for short. That’s about 50 to 60 models and is what the IPCC reports are based on.
So, until a few years ago, we have a climate sensitivity of 2 to 4 point 5 degrees or so, and that’s what we came to work with, that’s what all our plans rely on, if you can even call them plans. You have probably all seen this range in the IPCC projections for the temperature increase in different emission scenarios. It’s this shaded region around the mean value. Loosely speaking, the lowest end is the lowest climate sensitivity, the highest end the highest climate sensitivity.
Then this happened. In the 2019 model assessment, 10 out of 55 of the models had a climate sensitivity higher than 5 degrees Celsius. That was well outside the range that was previously considered likely. If this number was correct, it’d basically mean that the situation on our planet would go to hell twice as fast as we expected. Ok, you might say, but that was 5 years ago, so why haven’t we ever heard of this?
What’s happened is that climate scientists decided there must be something wrong with those models which gave the higher climate sensitivity. They thought the new predictions should agree with the old ones. In the literature, they dubbed it the “hot models” problem, and climate scientists argued that these hot models are unrealistic because such a high climate sensitivity isn’t compatible with historical data. This historical data covers many different periods and reaches back to a few million years ago when we still used dial-up modems. It’s called the “paleoclimate data”. Of course we don’t have temperature readings from back then, but there’s lots of indirect climate data in old samples, from rocks, ice, fossils and so on. In 2020, a massive study compiled all this paleoclimate data and found that it fits with a climate sensitivity between 2 point 6  and 3 point 9 degrees Celsius. And this means implicitly that the “hot” models, the ones with the high climate sensitivity, are not compatible with this historical data. As a consequence, the newer IPCC reports now weigh the relevance of climate models by how well the models fit the historical data. So the models with the high climate sensitivity contribute less to the uncertainty, which is why it has barely changed.
And that sounded reasonable to me at first. Because if a model doesn’t match with past records, there’s something wrong with it. Makes sense. Then I learned the following. The major difference between these hot models and the rest of the pack is how they describe the physical processes that are going on in clouds. A particular headache with clouds is the supercooled phase of water, that’s when water is below the freezing point but remains liquid. The issue is that the reflectivity of the clouds depends on whether it's liquid or not, and that supercooling makes the question just exactly what influence the clouds have very complicated. But how much data do we have about how clouds behaved a million years ago? As you certainly know, the dinosaurs forgot to back up their satellite images, so unfortunately all that million-year-old cloud data got lost and we don’t have any. To use the argument from historical data, therefore, climate scientists must assume that a model that is good for clouds in the current climate was also good for clouds back then, under possibly very different circumstances, without any direct data to check. That seems to me a very big “if” given that getting the clouds right is exactly the problem with those models.
Wouldn’t it be much better to check how well those models work with clouds for which we do have observations. Like you know, the ones that we see on the sky? In principle, yes, in practice, it’s difficult. That’s because most climate models aren’t any good as weather models. While the physics is the same, they’re designed to run on completely different time scales. You make a weather forecast two weeks at most. But climate models you want to run a hundred years into the future. There is one exception to this. There is one of the “hot” climate models that can also be used as a weather model with only slight adaptations. It’s the one from the UK Met Office. So a small group from the UK met office went and used this “hot” model to make a 6 hour weather forecast. They compared the forecast from the “hot” model with a forecast from an older version of the same model that didn’t have the changes in the cloud physics and was somewhat “colder”. They found that the newer model, the “hotter” one, gave the better forecast. And just so we’re on the same page, when I say the forecast was better, I don’t mean it was all sunny, I mean it agreed better with what actually happened. And that model with the better predictions had a climate sensitivity of more than 5 degrees Celsius. I know this all sounds rather academic, so let me try and put this into context. The climate sensitivity determines how fast some regions of our planet will become uninhabitable if we continue pumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The regions to be affected first and most severely are those around the equator, in central Africa, India, and South America. That’s some of the most densely populated regions of the world. The lives of the people who live there depend on that scientists get this number right. So we need this number to get a realistic idea of how fast we need to act. That the climate sensitivity might be considerably higher than most current policies assume is a big problem. Why wasn’t this front page news. Well, quite possibly because no one read the paper. I didn’t either. As of date it’s been cited a total of 13 times. I only know about this because my friend and colleague Tim Palmer wrote a comment for Nature magazine in which he drew attention to this result. He also asked other researchers to try and do similar tests with other models, to see how well they perform with the short-term weather forecast. Unfortunately, no one listened to him. That includes me, because I have other things to do than read all of Tim’s comments, sorry Tim, and in all honesty I had pretty much forgotten about this. But then late last year, a new paper with Jim Hanson as lead author appeared which reminded me of this.
The new Hanson et al paper is a re-analysis of the historical climate data. In a nutshell, they claim that the historical data is compatible with a climate sensitivity of 4 point 8 plus minus 1 point 2 degrees Celsius. That’s agrees with the “hot models.” And if it was right, it’d invalidate the one reason that climate scientists had to dismiss the models with the higher climate sensitivity. I don’t want to withhold from you that some climate scientists have criticised the new Hanson et al paper. They have called it a “worst-case scenario” that is “quite subjective and not justified by observations, model studies or literature.” Though it isn’t irrelevant to note that the person who said this is one of the authors of the previous paper that claimed the climate sensitivity from historical data is lower.
I don’t know who’s right or wrong. But for me the bottom-line is that the possibility of a high climate sensitivity above 5 degrees Celsius can’t be easily dismissed, especially not seeing how fast average temperatures have been rising in recent years. And that’s really bad news. Because if the climate sensitivity is indeed that high, then we have maybe 20 years or so until our economies collapse, and what’s the point of being successful on YouTube if my pension savings will evaporate before I even retire. Yeah, that’s a tad bit depressing, but if you want to hear an uplifting story about environmental protection stay around until the end because I want to tell you about my friends at Planet Wild.
This isn’t in the script. But it just blows my mind how mindfuckingly stupid it is that the lives of all people on this planet depend on an obscure discussion about the properties of supercooled droplets in a type of cloud whose name I can’t even remember.
And that returns me to the people who reflexively dislike any video on climate change because they really really don’t want to hear about it. I believe that most of them aren’t actually climate change deniers, I think they just can’t see how it’s going to affect them. What’s the big deal with a few degrees temperature increase? We’ll just turn up the air conditioning, right? I think it won’t be that easy. Which is why I now want to spend a few minutes telling you what I think will happen in the next 20 years or so. The next minutes of this video will be quite depressing, and if you are struggling with anxiety, I sincerely think it’d be better if you stopped watching here. Did I just tell people to not watch my video. I’m not doing this YouTube thing right am I.
If you’re still with me, here we go. Earth has 5 different climate zones, and each has its own typical type of vegetation. If climatic conditions change rapidly, a lot of plants will not grow properly or die, because it’s too hot or too dry or too wet or all the above.
Yes, plants like carbon dioxide, but that isn’t going to make up for the much bigger problem of the rapidly shifting climate zones. And yes, we can try to genetically engineer plants that are better adapted to the new circumstances, but that’s going to take time. And time is exactly what we don’t have if the climate sensitivity is really as high as the “hot” models say. People in the developed world will somehow cope with the hotter conditions by fertilizing and irrigating the hell out of any agricultural areas they have. But in many countries around the equator, crop yield will substantially drop. This will most affect countries that are already prone to famine, and at the same time, some of the poorest countries in the world will be hit very hard by heat waves and drought. I don’t think that a “human right for air conditioning” that some people argued for in a scientific American article is going to make much of a difference. Ok, so we have famine and drought and heat waves. But it’s just, you know, where poor people live, it isn’t really our problem, right? Well, that’s not the end of the story. Because those poor people who don’t conveniently die right away will draw consequences. They’ll leave. We’re talking about some hundred millions of people who have nothing left to lose, suddenly beginning to migrate. Where will they go? Most of them will go North. Why? Just because there’s more land North of the Equator than South. That’s going to cause a lot of tensions at the Southern borders of Europe, Russia, and Mexico, for just to mention a few. Someone somewhere will make a lot of money by selling weapons. Drones will be deployed. Some of them will shoot. Innocent people will die. But wait, that’s not it. Because death and migration make a great breeding ground for new viruses, bacteria, and fungi, so chances are we’re going to get a new pandemic along with it. So we have: widespread crop failure, high numbers of people dead, mass migration, political tensions and possibly war, likely public health disasters. Meanwhile people in the developed world are scrambling to adapt, moving inland as sea water levels continue to rise, trying to install air conditioning wherever they can, and are giving up pretending to cut back carbon dioxide emissions which is going to speed up the further proceedings. The result will be an enormous economic downturn. The practical consequences for you and I will be that every-day products will become more and more expensive, until most of us simply can’t afford them. And then they’ll disappear.
Need a new phone? That’ll be 50 thousand dollars. Internet connection at home? 8 thousand a month. Want a new microwave? Sorry we’re all out of stock. Need someone to fix your roof? We’re short on staff, they’re still cleaning up the mess from the recent flood. In simple terms the problem is that there’s only so much work one person can do in one day. And if we’re busy trying to survive, everything else will go on a pause. People who are busy building air conditioning units are people who are not pushing the cutting edge of nanotechnology. I don’t think we’ll go extinct. There’s just too many of us. And I don’t think civilization will entirely collapse, because much of the infrastructure we already have is going to last until the worst is over. But it’s going to be a phase of regress, rather than the progress that we’ve become used to. It’s going to be really unpleasant, will quite possibly reduce the world population by a few billion, and it’s not a world that I want to live in. And no, AI isn’t going to solve the problem, because the problem isn’t that we’re missing a technological solution. The problem is that we can’t agree to implement the solutions we have. You probably expect me to end on some recommendations. I don’t think it matters much what I recommend, but I also don’t want you to go away complaining that I haven’t thought about it. So here’s my wish list. Put a price on carbon dioxide emissions now. Continue to expand renewables. Build nuclear, build nuclear, build nuclear, stop bitching about carbon removal, there’s no way around it. And for heaven’s sake, stop gluing yourself to things. Nah, I’m not asking you to like this video. I don’t really like it myself. The quiz for this video is here.
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bellmo15-blog · 6 months
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Everything Wrong With BellmoTheGreat Vol 2
-The fact that both this and the original journal were inspired by Cinema’s Sins. Specifically, there videos on Everything Wrong With… THEMSELVES! Because no movie, or person, is without sin. +1
-And speaking of Cinema Sins because I really can’t think of a better time to bring this up, I actually use to love them! Not just them but any other channel that was basically just Cinema Sins but for gaming. You know, ones like Dartigan, Charrii5, GCN, those sorts of people. Normally I’m all for people enjoying what they want but me liking these channels in particular was a sin. +2
-There’s a lot of reasons I stopped watching these channels, from the constant scene manipulation to playing dumb to make things look like they don’t make sense to repeating sins to making bad pop culture references that aren’t sins of what they were sinning to acting like “the books don’t matter” to constantly contradicting themselves (they will sin a movie/game for not explaining anything but then turn around and sin it FOR explaining two much) or in the case of stuff like Cinema Sins Harry Potter videos saying some REALLY creepy stuff like “Hermine isn’t old enough to be hot yet.” (Yes, they ACTUALLY said that in almost all their HP videos, go watch them if you don’t believe me) to thinking they can get away with it because they write themselves of as “satire” as if satire can’t still be criticised and those channels STILL putting actual criticisms in there videos. +3
-That being said, I haven’t been watching channels like Th3Birdman and others like him that do Everything Wrong With videos on Everything Wrong With videos and well, this journal IS an Everything Wrong With on myself so… I guess I can’t really escape this type of content. +4
-I’m still white! But not so white that I don’t know what New Growth means. +5
-I’m 27 years old but I have more than 22 years of gaming experience. Hey, some of us don’t just come out of the womb knowing how to hold a controller. Sometimes we wait until we get a Playstation 2 for Christmas of 2000 before we do. +6
-I was a Playstation kid for most of the 2000’s. Yes, I did have a Gameboy Advanced, Wii and DS but most of my time was spent on either my Playstation 2, Playstation 3 or Playstation Portable. +7
-I had a Playstation 3 over an Xbox 360 and I am not ashamed of that! +8
-I once played a train conductor in my High Schools performance of Goodnight Mister Tom in the beginning of the performance where Willie’s mother sends him off to live with Tom on the train despite that opening never once happening in the original book our play was based on. Trust me, we had to read the book in school, I know! +9
-One time I was asked to help sell beer at a local footy game despite not liking either football or beer. +10
-Also, I’m an Australian who doesn’t enjoy or watch the footy. Yes, that’s a sin! +11
-Inkling Michael exists! +12
-Inkling Michael: Hey screw you! I’m beautiful! Take a sin off for me! -11
-Shiver is my favourite Splatoon girl behind Marina. Yeah you heard me Frye fans who get salty that Shiver has won almost every Splatfest in Splatoon 3 so far! +12
-Hate makes me stronger. Actually, hate makes ALL of us stronger! No really, what a lot of people don’t realize it that prior to dislikes being removed from Youtube they still technically counted as likes and leaving negative comments on a post was usually enough to get that post trending. Hate really does make us all stronger! We are all collectively like the Sith in a Star Wars movie. +13
-The reason review scores don’t have any value to me is actually because it’s pointless to give a score to something that will be subjective to everyone who experiences that! +14
-Same with arguing over what game “deserves” Game of the Year. To me Game of the Year is nothing more than a meaningless title that holds no real value yet everyone is always so determined to lable what they think is the best game of that year period ignoring the fact that again, we all have different tastes and what you consider to be Game of the Year won’t be someone else’s favourite. There’s a good reason I stopped taking this saying very seriously after the 2020 Game Awards where everyone collectively overreacted to The Last of Us Part 2 winning. +15
-I went to my local Pizza Hut once, got sick and had to go to the bathroom and then a few days later the place closed down. I didn’t even put in a complaint or anything, it just happened! So yeah, to everyone in my town who’s sad over that you can blame me for it, kinda. +16
-I have Autism. And despite what some people still think it doesn’t make you stupid. But I still have it so… +17
-Those who think I don’t read any of the source material a game is based on are going to be even more disappointed when I tell them… yeah actually your right. Most of the time at least. +18
-No actually, can I just take this opportunity to vent for a second about something? The books DO fucking matter! The Witcher games would not exist if the books didn’t exist. The Batman Arkham games would not exist if the Batman comics did not exist! Every single Star Wars game ever would not exist if the Star Wars movies didn’t exist! The Simpsons Hit and Run would not exist if the Simpsons Show didn’t exist! Kingdom Hearts would not exist if Disney didn’t! This isn’t really a sin on myself or anything, I just wanted to vent about this because people genuinely think that the source material something is based on “doesn’t matter” or that they need to consult a book just to understand it while also ignoring that these adaptations are just that! Adaptations of already existing stories and characters! And even then, most adaptations you don’t ALWAYS have to consult a book thanks to a little thing you might have heard of called “show don’t tell!” Jesus Fucking Christ, media literacy really IS dead if people say that the books “don’t matter!”
-Prior to Sony removing the option to share videos and clips to Twitter via PS5 I had to censor my swear words even though I don’t have any problem with swear words. Why? Because Sony made it so that it stops you from sharing anything if your post includes a swear. I can’t begin to tell you how many times I’ve had to do this! +19
-I’ve managed to piss off both Star Wars fans and Pokemon fans even though I love both those things. +20
-I’ve gotten 2 pics of my sona hypnotized and coiled by Kaa but not one pic of me with Miia or Alice. +21
-I don’t understand Roman Numerals. Or at least I don’t understand ones up to VI. +22
-You can usually tell just how much of a franchsie I actually know just based on how I write some of the descriptions to my commissions. “Junko from Danganropa in an interesting suit designed around the funny bear man from the same series.” HIS NAME IS FUCKING MONOKUMO YOU UNCULTURED SWINE! +23
-Somehow some of the best friends I’ve made in the past 5 years have been artists, some of whom I’ve commissioned several times, yet the most I’ve ever done in terms of actual art is a couple of sketches done on my 3DS that I did in like five minutes. +24
-Someone once tried to insult me on Facebook by calling me a Trump Supporter even though A) They were replying to a comment I made that had nothing to do with Donald Trump, B) I’m not even American and C) Fuck Donald Trump! +25
-Yeah no, I still don’t like Spec Ops The Line. Sorry! +125
-I tweet like a normal weirdo which is clearly an act. +126
-I actually, unironically enjoy Sonic and The Black Knight! It’s a pain to play sometimes if you’re playing this on actual hardware like I do because of the motion controls but I actually have fun with this game. I haven’t played Sonic and the Secret Rings yet but I’m willing to bet I’d enjoy that two. And not just because one of the characters in it is an admittedly really cute genie girl. +127
-Everyone thinks I have a massive love for Shantae which… yeah, I do! Obviously, I’ve made that pretty clear in the past, but in reality, EVERYONE has a massive love for Shantae. +128
-The only Paper Mario game I’ve ever played and have still played was Super Paper Mario. +129
-The Nohrian path in Fire Emblem Fates will forever be superior to the Hoshidens. And let me stop you right there, it’s NOT purely because of Camilla! She’s only a bonus reason. +120
-I once sold my Wii U copies of Mario Kart 8 and Pokken Tournament just because I was getting the Switch versions. Yes, that IS a sin because why the fuck would I do that as someone who’s a Wii U defender! (I DID get those versions back eventually though.) +131
-I have WAY to many games that I’ve brought but have never played! Tearaway, all the Little Big Planet games, the first two Infamous games, Astral Chain, Tokyo Mirage Sessions, Zombi U, the list goes on. +132
-I actually enjoy Detroit: Become Human and Heavy Rain. I still yet to finish Beyond Two Souls and Fahrenheit though. +133
-I’ve failed the Wrong Side of the Tracks mission in Grand Theft Auto San Andreas so much at this point that I can’t even be bothered to do that mission the legitimate way anymore! I always just park the bike on a specific roof, get off and jump onto the train to bust some caps in those gangsters’ asses. +134
-I’m sort of still a brony. Not as much as I use to be in the mid 2010’s but I still have a love for this show. +135
-I still believe that the haters of something can be way, WAY worse than the people who enjoy a thing. There’s a dam good reason I was proud to be a brony for most of the 2010s. +136
-I only got into Don’t Hug Me I’m Scared because of Red Guy. He is my spirit animal! +137
-I was enjoying Little Which Academia up to the point where I was spoiled about a pretty big plot twist around one of the characters via a meme! While I was six episodes in! I have yet to continue watching it because of that meme! +138
-I’ve never made a video game therefor I should probably just shut the fuck up. +139
Sin Total: 139 Sentence: Dante makes it into a Smash Game! (But it’s the 2013 reboot Dante!)
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mahal039 · 11 months
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Injustice
In 5 days will mark a month since I've started to relapse in depression.
Last night,I felt more than hopeless and was playing way too close with fire.Searching the purpose of life,the "why" of all of this;even though I'm a christian and I know my purpose,I sometimes tend to ignore it and my brain is like "this is the part we are going to hide from you even though you might really get hurt".So yeah,not a great night per say.
Then I watched a video from someone one YouTube,someone that I have been following for nearly 5 years.This person is the easy target,mentally he has strong and out of the box opinions,physically he is like a person in the emo/alt universe from 2009.You get it why he is an easy target now?
So he posted a video on which he was opening up about his struggles for 2 years of bullying,harrassment because people were accusing him of doing/having done really bad things,but the thing is he is innocent. There has been huge misunderstandings, things taken out of context and just hypocrisy from a lot of people that literrally want him DEAD. This person has been on the verge to do something irreversible for a bunch of ignorant,trash people not even taking time to hear both sides or even do a 2 second research on you tube. And during all of this 2 years no one contacted him publicly to defend himself, to explain the things so he took matters in his own hands and made a 7hour video and more videos after that,explaining A to Z behind all of these non-sense accusations,he reached out to lawyers and none of them took his case because "it wasn't interresting enough",he was told innocent by the law literally, and after all of this he still gets threat/death messages.He was attacked in his own house!This type of actions were done by middle schoolers/high schoolers in my days.And now we're talking about about 20+ people acting the same.
In the end,what happened was that I gained this rage in me,I experienced the same kind of ignorant people all my life for whatever reason that was trending each year,for haircut,my body,my teeth,my basic modest styles and alt styles,for the fact that I was studying,reading,did not use social media,did not have a phone in middle school.All of these almost killed me a few years ago.Even though I kind of understand the sickness of this world,it was never this physical and this dangerous.
So my brain reacted in a strange way,and I got a lesson out of this injustice.Are you gonna live your life for ignorant,close-minded,people who think they are God and can make in such danger a life of someone?taking revenge on an innocent that happened to be an easy target?nah,not for me anymore.Everytime from now on,someone acts this way towards me,I would've ignored and look away,taking their lack of neurons and emotional intelligence as Gospel to my life,now I will look at them in the eyes and see them as they are,a bunch of useless monsters in my life.
I have red spiky hair,I'm not showing enough skin for them,I look cold,I go out with no friends,I have scars from up to toe.Then what?
I'll never let you in,it's long enough,I take back my life right now,like Bon jovi said "it's my life,it's now or never and I ain't gonna live forever" I know who I am in the eyes of God,my identity is not in who you think I am,I am who He says I am.
By the way,just with the way you act and think toward people and me not understanding why someone would go so low and do such hideous things,show me who has a pure and innocent heart.Face it, who is better between me & you.
Ps:all of this is part of what I think,without any filters because sometimes you have to be crude for people to realise things.
Kill'em with kindness-Selena Gomez
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