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mightyflamethrower · 8 months

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“Name me a single objective we’ve ever set out to accomplish that we’ve failed on. Name me one, in all of our history. Not one!”

-President Joe Biden, August 16, 2023

Joe Biden in one of his now accustomed angry “get off my grass” moods dared the press to find just one of his policies/objectives that has not worked. Silence followed.

Perhaps it was polite to say nothing, given even the media knows almost every enacted Biden policy has failed.

Here is a summation of what he should instead apologize for.

Biden in late summer 2021 sought a 20th anniversary celebration of 9/11 and the 2001 subsequent invasion of Afghanistan. He wished to be the landmark president that yanked everyone out of Afghanistan after 20 years in country. But the result was the greatest military humiliation of the United States since the flight from Vietnam in 1975.

Consider the ripples of Biden’s disaster. U.S. deterrence was crippled worldwide. China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea almost immediately began to bluster or return to their chronic harassment of U.S. and allied ships and planes. We left thousands of allied Afghans to face Taliban retribution, along with some Western contractors.

Biden abandoned a $1 billion embassy, and a $300 million remodeled Bagram airbase strategically located not far from China and Russia, and easily defensible. Perhaps $50 billion in U.S. weaponry and supplies were abandoned and now find their way into the international terrorist mart.

All our pride flags, our multimillion gender studies programs at Kabul University, and our George Floyd murals did not just come to naught, but were replaced by the Taliban’s anti-homosexual campaigns, burkas, and detestation of any trace of American popular culture.

Vladimir Putin sized up the skedaddle. He collated it with Biden’s unhinged quip that he would not get too excited if Putin just staged a “minor” invasion of Ukraine. He remembered Biden’s earlier request to Putin to modulate Russian hacking to exempt a few humanitarian American institutions. Then Russia concluded of our shaky Commander-in-Chief that he either did not care or could do nothing about another Russian invasion.

The result so far is more than 500,000 dead and wounded in the war, a Verdun-stand-off along with fortified lines, the steady depletion of our munitions and weapon stocks, and a new China/Russia/Iran/North Korean axis, with wink and nod assistance from NATO Turkey.

Biden blew up the Abraham accords, nudged Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States over to the dark side of Iran, China, and Russia. He humiliated the U.S. on the eve of the midterms by callously begging the likes of Iran, Venezuela, Russia, and Saudi Arabia to pump more oil that he had damned as unclean at home and cut back its production. In Bidenomics, instead of producing oil, the president begs autocracies to export it to us at high prices while he drains the nation’s strategic petroleum reserve for short-term political advantage.

Biden deliberately alienated Israel by openly interfering in its domestic politics. He pursued the crackpot Iran Deal while his special Iranian envoy was removed for disclosing classified information.

No one can explain why Biden ignored the Chinese balloon espionage caper, kept mum about the engineered Covid virus that escaped the Wuhan lab, said not a word about a Chinese biolab discovered in rural California, and had his envoys either bow before Chinese leaders or take their insults in silence—other than he is either cognitively challenged or leveraged by his decade-long grifting partnership with his son Hunter.

Yet another Biden’s legacy will be erasing the southern border and with it, U.S. immigration law. Over seven million aliens simply crossed into the U.S. illegally with Biden’s tacit sanction—without audits, background checks, vaccinations, and COVID testing, much less English fluency, skills, or high-school diplomas.

Biden’s only immigration accomplishment was to render the entire illegal sanctuary city movement a cruel joke. Given the flood, mostly rich urban and vacation home dwellers made it very clear that while they fully support millions swarming into poor Latino communities of southern Texas and Arizona, they do not want any illegal aliens fouling their carefully cultivated nests.

Biden is mum about the 100,000 fentanyl deaths from cartel-imported and Chinese-supplied drugs across his open border. He seems to like the idea that Mexican President Obrador periodically mouths off, ordering his vast expatriate community to vote Democratic and against Trump.

Despite all the pseudo-blue collar dissimulation about Old Joe Biden from Scranton, he has little empathy for the working classes. Indeed, he derides them as chumps and dregs, urges miners to learn coding as the world covets their coal, and studiously avoids getting anywhere near the toxic mess in East Palestine, Ohio, or so far the moonscape on Maui.

Bidenomics is a synonym for printing up to $6 billion dollars at precisely the time post-Covid consumer demand was soaring, while previously dormant supply chains were months behind rebooting production and transportation. Biden is on track to increase the national debt more than any one-term president.

In Biden’s weird logic, if he raised the price of energy, gasoline, and key food staples 20-30 percent since his inauguration without a commensurate rise in wages, and then saw the worst inflation in 40 years occasionally decline from record highs one month to the next, then he “beat inflation.”

But the reason why more than 60 percent of the nation has no confidence in Bidenomics is because it destroyed their household budgets. Gas is nearly twice what it was in January 2021. Interest rates have about tripled. Key staple foods are often twice as costly—meat, vegetables, and fruits especially.

Biden has ended through his weaponized Attorney General Merrick Garland the age-old American commitment to equal justice under the law. The FBI, DOJ, CIA, and IRS are hopelessly politically compromised. Many of their bureaucrats serve as retrieval agents for lost Biden family incriminating laptops, diaries, and guns. In sum, Biden criminalized opposing political views.

Biden has unleashed the administrative state for the first time in history to destroy the Republican primary front runner and his likely opponent. His legacy will be the corruption of U.S. jurisprudence and the obliteration of the American reputation for transparent permanent government that should be always above politics, bribery, and corruption.

If in the future, an on-the-make conservative prosecutor in West Virginia, Utah, or Mississippi wishes to make a national name, then he has ample precedent to indict a Democrat President for receiving bad legal advice, questioning the integrity of an election, or using social media to express doubt that the new non-Election-Day balloting was on the up-and-up, or supposedly overvaluing his real estate.

The Biden family’s decade-long family grifting will likely expose Joe Biden as the first president in U.S. history who fitted precisely the Constitution’s definition of impeachment and removal—given his “high crimes and misdemeanors” appear “bribery”-related. If further evidence shows he altered U.S. foreign policy in accordance with the wishes from his benefactors in Ukraine, China, or Romania, then he committed constitutionally-defined “treason” as well.

Defunding the police, and pandemics of exempted looting, shoplifting, smashing, and grabbing, and carjacking merit no administrative attention. Nor does the ongoing systematic destruction of our blue bicoastal cities, Los Angeles, New York, Portland, San Francisco, Seattle, and Washington, D.C. All that, along with the disasters in East Palestine or Maui are out of sight, out of mind from a day at the beach at Biden’s mysteriously purchased nearly 6,000 square-foot beachfront mansion.

Biden ran on Barack Obama-like 2004 rhetoric (“Well, I say to them tonight, there is not a liberal America and a conservative America — there is the United States of America).”

And like Obama, he used that ecumenical sophistry to gain office only to divide further the U.S. No sooner than he was elected, we began hearing from the great unifier eerie screaming harangues about “semi-fascists” and “ultra-MAGA” dangerous zealots, replete with red-and black Phantom of the Opera backdrops.

What followed the unifying rhetoric was often amnesties and exemptions for violent offenders during the 120 days of rioting, looting, killing, and attacks on police officers in summer 2020. In contrast, his administration lied when it alleged that numerous officers had died at the hands of the January 6 rioters. In addition, the Biden administration mandated long-term incarceration of many who committed no illegal act other than acting like buffoons and “illegally parading.”

The message was exemptions for torching a federal courthouse, a police precinct, or historic church or attempting to break into the White House grounds to get a president and his family—but long prison terms for wearing cow horns, a fur vest, and trespassing peacefully like a lost fool in the Capitol.

Finally, Biden’s most glaring failure was simply being unpresidential. He snaps at reporters, and shouts at importune times. He can no longer read off a big-print teleprompter. Even before a global audience, he cannot kick his lifelong creepy habit of turkey-gobbling on children necks, blowing into their ears and hair of young girls, and squeezing women far too long and far too hard.

His frailty redefined American presidential campaigning as basement seclusion and outsourcing propaganda to the media. And his disabilities only intensified during his presidency. Biden begins his day late and quits early. He has recalibrated the presidency as a 5-hour, 3-day a week job.

If Trump was the great exaggerator, Biden is our foremost liar. Little in his biography can be fully believed. He lies about everything from his train rides to the death of his son to his relationship with Biden-family foreign collaborators, to vaccinations to the economy. Anytime Biden mentions places visited, miles flown, or rails ridden, he is likely lying.

Biden continues with impunity because the media feels that a mentally challenged fabulist is preferable to Donald Trump and so contextualizes or ignores his falsehoods. Never has a U.S. president fallen and stumbled or gotten lost on stage so frequently—or been a single small trip away from incapacity.

So, yes, Biden’s initiatives have succeeded only in the sense of becoming successfully enacted—and therefore nearly destroying the country.

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fuckyeahmarxismleninism · 15 days

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Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine: The Iranian response to the zionist entity is a pivotal event that will establish new rules of engagement in the region.

The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine praised the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's targeting of zionist military sites with dozens of missiles and drones in response to the entity's aggression against the Iranian consulate in Damascus, describing the Iranian response as a significant pivotal event that will establish new rules of engagement in the region.

The Front confirmed that the legitimate Iranian response broke the prestige of the zionist entity, revealing its fragility and inability to defend itself or restore its deterrence power. At the same time, it confirmed the ability of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the resistance factions to deliver painful strikes to the zionist entity, deepening its internal crisis due to its inability to achieve any of its goals in eliminating the resistance in the Gaza Strip, or stopping the strikes directed at it by the resistance in Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq.

The Front explained that the rush of the American administration and its partners in Britain, France, Germany, and some of their Arab tails in the region to use all their defensive weapons to try to protect the zionist entity from the Iranian missiles and drones confirms the involvement of these parties in the zionist crimes in the region, especially in Gaza. It also reveals that this zionist entity has suffered a strategic defeat, has become humiliated and weak, and is unable to protect itself, now imploring its allies to take on this role.

The Front concluded its statement by affirming that the unprecedented Iranian strikes, the first of their kind in history against the zionist entity, represent an important turning point in the battle of the Al-Aqsa Flood and in favor of the resistance factions. The repercussions of this strike will have pressing effects on the zionist entity to stop its genocidal war on the Gaza Strip, after the American administration and its allies realized that any escalation in the region would lead to a regional war where their bases and interests will not be safe, nor will the zionist entity be able to defend itself after the collapse of its deterrence power and its humiliating defeat in front of the resistance in Gaza and other fronts.

Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine

Central Media Department

April 14, 2024

https://t.me/PalestineResist/35985

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eretzyisrael · 15 days

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Confrontation with Iran: Who Won?

The West likes its Jews passive, dependent, and weak. When American officials say “Israel has a right to defend [herself]” they mean that they will allow her, and even assist her, to ward off the blows of her enemies. But their “rock solid support” does not extend to Israel taking offensive actions. Israel is allowed passive defense, but not to take the war to our enemies. And don’t even think about preemption.

Insofar as Israel obeys her Western “allies,” she is placed at a great disadvantage for several reasons. The most obvious one is that an entirely passive defense does not deter enemies from attacking over and over again. Why shouldn’t they? They have nothing to lose. The opposite: they will learn valuable lessons from their failures, which they can apply to the next round. And everyone is encouraged to keep trying for the honor of being the one who finally broke the Jewish state.

Then there is the relative high cost of defensive weapons. Each Arrow 3 missile like the ones used to intercept missiles fired at Israel on Saturday night, costs $3.5 million. Each Tamir interceptor used by the Iron Dome system to destroy the cheap Qassams of Hamas, the Katyushas of Hezbollah, and the drones of Iran, costs $50,000 (and two are usually fired at every enemy weapon). Each Iron Dome battery costs $50 million. The cost of using F-35s to shoot down drones is also high relative to the cost of the drones. Passive defense is expensive.

A purely passive defense strategy is so expensive, in fact, that no small country can afford to sustain it for a long period of time (and passivity guarantees that it will be needed forever). As a result, there is no alternative but to turn to one of the great powers as a sponsor. The price is loss of control and ultimately of sovereignty. It is already clear from the way American officials talk about Israel (e.g., President Biden is often described as “furious” with Israel), that Israel is seen as a satellite at best and a satrapy at worst.

Finally there is the message that is inherent in passivity. Shooting at Jews, because there are no consequences for it, becomes normalized. The Jews, people think, must deserve being shot at because, after all, everyone is doing it with impunity. This is particularly important in the Middle East, where honor is a paramount element in most cultures. Individuals, tribes, or nations that are hurt by an enemy must strike back or suffer a loss of honor, a mark that invites others to victimize them as well. Even in Western cultures – well, at least in the recent past – children were taught that failure to strike back at a bully invites more bullying.

An active defense, on the other hand, creates deterrence and restores lost honor. Nobody will attack Israel if they know that retaliation will be swift and disproportionate. If they are hurt badly enough, they will think twice about attacking again – if they have even retained the ability to do so. There is also an economic advantage: offensive weapons, like drones, rockets, missiles, and artillery, are far cheaper and simpler than technological marvels like Arrow and Iron Dome.

Israel has come a long way down the road to losing her sovereignty to the US as a result of her increasing dependence on military aid, in part to finance astronomically expensive systems of passive defense, and in part because she chooses to adopt other super-sophisticated weapons systems that are “free” even when they may not be optimal for her needs (e.g., the F-35). She has developed a culture at the top of her military hierarchy which is as loyal to the American military-industrial complex as it is to the State of Israel. The American government has, for its part, extended its influence deeper into all the affairs of our state, and in particular her management of her wars.

After the horrific atrocities of 7 October 2023, Israeli leaders had no choice but to adopt the strategic objective of removing Hamas from power and destroying its military capabilities. The US opposed this from the start, forced Israel to delay her ground invasion, and now – for several months – has prevented her from entering the last Hamas stronghold, Rafiah. The US has pushed for an extended (in effect, permanent) ceasefire, and has tried to turn Gaza over to the corrupt, terrorist, Palestinian Authority, a step which would nullify the gains made by the IDF at great cost.

After Iran attacked Israel with hundreds of drones and missiles on Saturday night, President Biden called for Israel to treat its success at intercepting most of them as “a win,” and not retaliate. The media in Israel are trumpeting the success of our air defense array, which – with some significant help from the US, the UK, and Jordan – managed to down 99% of the weapons before they could land in Israel. This is a remarkable technological achievement, but it was an expensive operation, estimated to cost 5 billion shekels, or more than $1.3 billion.

Israel has not yet retaliated, and it is clear that the price demanded for accurate American intelligence about the impending attack and assistance in defending against it was that any retaliation will be at best symbolic – and certainly not include an attack on the Iranian nuclear project.

But the 99% figure is not as “phenomenal” (Israeli media love this word) as it looks nor is it likely to be repeated. Respected Israeli analyst Yigal Carmon wrote that the whole operation was choreographed by Iran with the cooperation of the US in order to allow the Islamic Republic to come down from the tree of needing to retaliate for Israel’s recent assassination of an Iranian general:

Iran wanted to retrieve its deterrence after the killing in Damascus of Iranian General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, who, by Iran’s own testimony, was the mastermind of the October 7 attack. … [The US] coordinated with the Iranians so that civilians would not be struck. Arab media are already reporting this coordination. Iran made it easy for the U.S., Israel, Britain, and Jordan to know what it would and would not do, and where it would do it. Israel was not part of this coordination. …

The Americans played Israel and they are continuing to do so by preventing an Israeli reaction. In fact, they began the pressure on Israel not to react even before the attack took place. CENTCOM’s commander General Michael Kurilla went to Israel on April 13 and pressed for prior coordination with the U.S. of any action by Israel. Now President Biden said it himself: You were not hurt, they failed. Do not do anything. Do not escalate because you will be dragging us into a war. We protected you and no one was hurt. The answer will be diplomatic.

What did the various parties gain and lose from this exercise? Iran’s top priority today is to avoid triggering a serious confrontation that might result in damage to her nuclear weapons program, which is on the verge of completion. However (unlike Israeli leaders), the Iranians understand the psychological importance of at least appearing to get revenge when they have been injured, and this massive attack achieved that end. At the same time, the coordination with the Americans insured that Israel will not strike back, and therefore will lose points in the calculus of honor that is so important in the region. Israel also lost an opportunity, perhaps her last, to take action against the Iranian nuclear project before it becomes operational.

The Americans gain exposure for their defensive weapons systems, establish themselves as the protector of their allies, and increase their influence over Israel and her dependence upon them. Israel will have to replenish her supply of American weapons and ammunition, and the military aid is an important subsidy for the US defense industry. The Biden administration also maintains its (still inexplicable to me) policy of protecting and even encouraging Iran’s drive to become the nuclear hegemon of the region.

Carmon also notes – and this is a critical point for Israeli planners – that the 99% success rate in interceptions is not likely to be repeated in the event of a real surprise attack by Iran.

Israel can’t continue on the path of subservience to the US, because American objectives in the region are inconsistent with the continued existence of a Jewish state. She must reduce her dependence, develop her own defense industries, approach other great powers (e.g., China), and become a “nonaligned” nation rather than a satellite of one side or the other. In the short term, she must enter Rafiah, crush Hamas, repel Hezbollah, and keep Iran from becoming a nuclear power.

May Hashem give our leadership the sense to see this and the strength to act.

#Iran #US-Israel Relations #War

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probablyasocialecologist · 3 months

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When an Iraqi militant group killed three U.S. service members at a base in Jordan over the weekend, the militants were clear about their motives: It was retaliation for American support for Israel. “As we said before, if the U.S. keeps supporting Israel, there will [be] escalations,” a senior official from an alliance of Iraqi militia groups said in claiming responsibility for the attack. “All the U.S. interests in the region are legitimate targets, and we don’t care about U.S. threats to respond.” The statement is not new or surprising. While the need for U.S. troops to be stationed at the Tower 22 military base — a dusty outpost on the Syria–Jordan border — has a dubious, if any, relationship to U.S. national security, the U.S. presence has been very helpful to Israel. The U.S. military in the region serves to deter Iran as well as Israel’s many other enemies. Now, establishing deterrence against Israel’s adversaries is threatening to suck the U.S. back into a broader, open conflict in the Middle East. Take, for example, the recent U.S. attacks against the Houthis in Yemen, which began after the rebels attacked ships in the Red Sea to force an Israeli ceasefire in Gaza. Especially at a time when the U.S. is trying to pivot away from the region, Israel increasingly looks like a liability to U.S. interests in the Middle East. American officials are forced to expend significant economic, political, and military resources to shield Israel’s government from local threats and deflect international outrage over its campaign in Gaza. Israel, it turns out, extracts a tremendous cost from the U.S. — often in treasure but, as the world saw over the weekend in Jordan, sometimes in blood — with few discernable strategic gains for the Americans.

[...]

U.S. military officials periodically criticize the impact of uncritical U.S. support for Israel on American interests in the region, where Israel remains unpopular for its policies against Palestinians. These complaints, even from U.S. military officials, have often been walked back under political pressure. Despite repeated vows by American leaders to reduce the country’s footprint in the Middle East, the U.S.’s commitment to Israel has turned into military involvement across the region. There are strikes against the Houthis in Yemen, aircraft carriers in the eastern Mediterranean to deter Hezbollah in Lebanon, and skirmishes with Iranian-backed militias in Syria and Iraq. The costs for the U.S. from this new era of conflict are rapidly adding up. According to a recent report in Politico, an estimated $1.6 billion has already been spent on unanticipated U.S. military expenses in the region since October 7 — a price tag Pentagon officials say they cannot pay without a new budget from Congress. Global ammunition shortages are also forcing the U.S. to scramble to replenish its depleted supplies at a time when it is also struggling to contain threats in Europe and East Asia. For Israel, however, the U.S.’s presence only fortifies its strategic initiatives. “The Israelis view the American presence in the region as very important, because it creates a backstop for them,” said Parsi. “The U.S. presence gives Israel greater maneuverability to carry out strikes in places like Syria and Lebanon, but also a sense of deterrence against those who would like to retaliate against them, since it may mean that the U.S. is dragged into the conflict as well.”

#israel #palestine #jordan #usa #iraq

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usafphantom2 · 1 month

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Two more B-1B bombers are deployed in Spain

The two recent B-1B bombers arrived in Morón for the latest deployment of the bomber task force in Europe.

Fernando Valduga By Fernando Valduga 30/03/2024 - 15:30in Military

Two U.S. Air Force B-1B Lancers during the 24-2 Bomber Task Force at Morón Air Base, Spain. (Photo: Scott Rathbone / Flickr).

Two U.S. Air Force B-1B Lancers bombers landed this week at Morón Air Base, Spain, totaling four USAF bombers at the station and completing the arrival of the Bomber Task Force (BTF) 24-2 on Tuesday (03/26).

The bombers transited to Europe passing through the Barents Sea. Throughout the missions, the four U.S. aircraft operated in international airspace and in full compliance with international law.

"Our ability to maneuver through the Arctic and position advanced strategic bombers in Europe is critical to ensuring our Allies and partners our commitment to regional security and stability," said General James Hecker, commander of the U.S. Air Forces in Europe - Africa Air Forces and NATO Allied Air Command. “The global security environment requires a forward-looking approach and we will continue to face this challenge through strategic planning and innovative operations,” he added.

This mission shows the continuous and dynamic operations of the US in the European and Arctic regions, adapting to the evolving security environment alongside the Allies and partners.

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The BTF 24-2 is a routine part of the Large-Scale Global Exercise 2024, a generic term that incorporates dozens of separate U.S. military exercises and activities, under multiple combatant commands, that allow the U.S. Joint Force to train with Allies and partners and improve shared understanding, trust and interoperability in security challenges around the world.

The bombers and support personnel will carry out a series of missions to train alongside the Allies and partners during the deployment. Through these missions, USAFE-AFAFRICA allows the dynamic use of forces in the European theater, providing strategic predictability and guarantee to the Allies and partners, while contributing to deterrence, introducing greater operational unpredictability for potential opponents.

Tags: Military AviationB-1B LancerbombersBTFEjército del Aire/Spanish Air ForceUSAF - United States Air Force / U.S. Air Force

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Fernando Valduga

Aviation photographer and pilot since 1992, he has participated in several events and air operations, such as Cruzex, AirVenture, Dayton Airshow and FIDAE. He has works published in specialized aviation magazines in Brazil and abroad. He uses Canon equipment during his photographic work in the world of aviation.

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todaysdocument · 14 days

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NSDD 119 Strategic Defense Initiative

Collection RR-NSC: Numbered National Security Policy PapersSeries: National Security Decision Directives (NSDDs)

NSDD 119 (handwritten)

SECRET (crossed out)

THE WHITE HOUSE

WASHINGTON

SYSTEM II

91482

C.F.

1855545.

N00018

SECRET (crossed out)

NATIONAL SECURITY DECISION

DIRECTIVE NUMBER

STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE (U) (crossed out)

The current strategy of nuclear deterrence based upon the threat of retaliation has been successful to date; but it is subject to a number of destabilizing factors in the next generation. The U.S. has actively sought to strengthen the stability and credibility of deterrence and reduce the threat of nuclear war through modernization of its strategic forces and by making significant arms reduction proposals. The Soviet Union's unwillingness thus far to consider true arms reductions, and its massive increases in strategic offensive forces have necessitated continued U.S. actions to preserve our deterrent capabilities. NSDDs 12, 13, and 91 establish Administration policy on strategic forces modernization and nuclear weapons employment and outline our continued adherence to the concept of nuclear deterrence as the means for protecting the security of the United States and our allies. (S) (crossed out)

However, given the uncertain long-term future of offensive deterrence, I believe that an effort must also be made to identify alternative means of deterring nuclear war and protecting our national security interests. In particular, the U.S. should investigate the feasibility of eventually shifting toward reliance upon a defensive concept. Future deterrence should, if possible, be underwritten by a capability to defeat a hostile attack. (S) (crossed out)

New technologies appear to offer the possibility of helping eventually eliminate the most destabilizing threat to the U.S. and its allies, ballistic missile attack. The technology and policy studies undertaken in response to NSSD 6-83 have confirmed that a defense against ballistic missile attack might eventually be developed and could play a critical role in enhancing deterrence. The Defensive Technologies Study described a technology program of R&D and demonstration which might eventually lead to a decision to proceed with development of a ballistic missile defense system. (S) (crossed out) There is also growing concern over a potential Soviet breakout from ABM Treaty. Evidence of Soviet efforts to develop a ballistic missile defense capability makes it incumbent upon the U.S. to do its utmost to acquire its own strategic defense

[full transcription at link]

#archivesgov #April 16 #1984 #1980s #cold war #ronald reagan #missile defense

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wumblr · 2 months

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another thing i don't think most people grasp about the nuclear deterrent is that land-based intercontinental missiles have been referred to as a nuclear sponge, meaning, they are not an offense strategy. the offense strategy is the other two arms of the nuclear triad, air and sea. and defense one is a military news source! the one thing both pro- and anti-nuclear advocates can agree on is that ICBMs are not even necessary. what neither this nor the source below acknowledge is that funding for silos is one of the most influential factors in our representative democracy. it is the only reason that many of these communities ever got any infrastructural support. the only people who love ICBMs are politicians, and it's because bombs are adjacent to cashflow. how pathetic!

the silos are there to sacrificially absorb a nuclear strike from an adversarial state. to provide an extremely difficult strategic roadblock, where it would be necessary to strike every silo simultaneously (or at least before we can launch any of them in retaliation), a nearly impossible task. probably the only scenario in which this is even possible is a war against allied china and russia (which, curiously enough, is what your blue president jacks off about. go ahead and vote for that, you dumb cunts.)

princeton research estimated this would kill 340k-4m, depending largely on whether fallout hits the windy city, with 300m or 81% of the north american continent potentially at risk of lethal fallout. which is to say we are all being used as bait for a worst case scenario equivalent to thirteen hundred nine elevens, precursor to an excuse to commit an extinction-level nuclear winter in retaliation. as i have said previously, whether a nuclear winter is even possible given the detonation of every existing nuke... also depends largely on wind direction, and the primary cause of its damage in the long-term is dust, not radiation. anyway this came up in the sciam nuclear issue

here's the worst wind-model day. (because the silo areas are so sparsely populated, these figures ONLY include fallout-related deaths, because any direct deaths from the detonative charge itself are negligible by comparison. it also includes one 800kt nuke per silo, as in, not the one IN the silo but the one that blew it up, and ITS fallout as well. that might be an unrealistically large estimate, i'm inclined to think you could make every silo inoperable with smaller payloads or even conventional munitions. whether that would make the warhead permanently unusable may be dubious, but that's really splitting hairs)

here's the averaged risk

here's all worst case scenarios (only one scenario can occur, but this is why 300m are at risk despite only 4m deaths in the worst case)

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defensenow · 3 months

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US Test Fires $100B ICBM; Top Official Says Its Struggles Have Made Him ‘More Nervous’ Than B-21 Raider Northrop Grumman has announced the test-firing of the under-developed LGM-35A intercontinental ballistic missile’s (ICBM) second-stage rocket motor that would push it outside the atmosphere after launch. Results from the test would be compared with computer-generated predictions and models while informing future technical tweaks.

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minetteskvareninova · 10 months

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One take I am absolutely sick of is the whole “dragons are nukes” comparison making rounds in the ASOIAF fandom.

Literally how?! They certainly don’t have the destructive ability of nuclear weapons; AT BEST they reach the level of conventional bombers, and they probably were truly equivalent to those back in the Valyrian Empire, where there were hundreds of them. But in Westeros during the Targaryen era?! There’s never more than about a dozen of ridden dragons - which is another thing. A dragon without a rider is useless or worse. The ability to ride dragons is (intentionally, at least in part) confined within a single ruling family, and even that family relies on ancient knowledge from the now extinct civilization to even be able to use them. The destructive potential of the entire useable dragon population at any point in Targaryen history just doesn’t fucking compare to a fleet of bombers, though admittedly it doesn’t have to - since noone else has them and the only way to counteract them, that is, the Dornish scorpions, seems to be in limited supply, they can get much closer to their targets at ideal conditions (as opposed to conducting raids by night) and hit them with greater accuracy. As a nice bonus, the collateral damage they cause is actually lower, because they don’t have to destroy everything around them to make absolutely sure they hit their intended target. Either way, it’s absolutely preposterous to compare the destruction a dozen dragons can cause with an entire fucking nuclear arsenal.

They certainly don’t have the strategic implications that nukes carry - the one characteristic of nuclear warfare since its first and only uses on Hiroshima and Nagasaki is how much we AVOID using them in order to not make our rivals even think it’s acceptable to do the same. In fact, the mere possibility of using nukes is often used as a strategy - a concept known as nuclear deterrence (https://acoup.blog/2022/03/11/collections-nuclear-deterrence-101/) You could maybe argue that the Targs are using dragons as deterrents too, at least internally - but that doesn’t mean that much, because a) internally, they are good deterrents, but guess what, so is a regular professional army of a stable modern state (which is a bit out of reach for medieval rulers, so dragons are a workable substitute); b) externally, they don’t seem to work all that well, see all the squabbling over Stepstones, where dragons did help in battles against the Free Cities, but they certainly didn’t deter them from fighting in the first place.

Lastly, the cultural view of dragons is very different. Again, there is no moral weight attached to them like there is in our world. People are certainly afraid of them, but aren’t appalled at the mere thought of using them at all and don’t claim owning them makes Targaryens as a whole complete monsters. Sure, Viserys in the show and I am sure some people in-universe can be apprehensive, but that doesn’t seem to be the majority opinion. In Westeros, dragons are simply particularly strong weapons used by one family of feudal lords to get ahead of their competitors, terrifying, but not any different in their moral implications from, say, ballistae. But many people still use that comparison in order to evoke those moral implications IN THE READER, no matter how stupid and inaccurate it is.

Which is ultimately what bugs me the most. The comparison is not only inaccurate, it’s lazy and shallow; it doesn’t tell us anything deeper about dragons in ASOIAF, and in fact it obfuscates not only our view of the dragons in this fictional universe (which while harmless is still annoying as fuck) but of nuclear weapons (and conventional bombers, for that matter) in real life.

Because yes, giant fire breathing reptiles are terrifying. But we, the people of the post-industrial age, have outdone them. Wars in our era regularly cause destruction that medieval lord, even fantasy ones owning magical beasts, could merely dream of - and the worst part is, we do not seem to even realize it.

@horizon-verizon

#a song of ice and fire #game of thrones #fire and blood #house of the dragon

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newsgola · 1 year

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The Top Nuclear Powers in 2023: A Look at the Five Nuclear-Weapon States Recognized by the NPT: Nukes top 5

The possession of nuclear weapons grants a significant military capability and deterrent force to a country. The United States, Russia, China, France, and the United Kingdom are considered the top nuclear powers with the most nuclear warheads in their possession. These countries, also known as the five nuclear-weapon states recognized by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), possess a…

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#arms control #China #deterrent force #France #ICBMs #modernization #national security strategy #NPT #nuclear arsenal #nuclear powers #nuclear weapons #nukes top 5 #Russia #SLBMs #strategic bombers #top 5 nukes #United Kingdom #United States

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old-school-butch · 4 months

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I’m confused as to why so many people on Tumblr (and elsewhere) see this as situation where you have to pick a side. It’s possible to think that two groups are both doing bad things to innocent people, to varying degrees at various times. The people losing in this conflict are the civilians of *both* countries who are at the whims of their governments and bear the brunt of the poor (and sometimes horrific) decisions made by those governments. This “Good Guys” versus “Bad Guys” mentality is not sufficient for a conflict as long and complicated as this one and, again, the people who will suffer from that mentality are the civilians they claim to be standing up for.

Maybe the reason I like history is that if you follow a story for long enough it gets very hard to define anything that happens as 100% good or bad. The reasons for a war, how a war is fought and how a peace is made can all be - independently - better or worse.

This war is being fought because Hamas took hostages. A lot of hostages. Too many to ignore. And that was a strategically good for them because it gave Israel no options, just dilemmas. But for everyone chanting for a ceasefire, they need to remember that this war didn't need to start, and could be stopped, at any moment by returning those hostages. All this terrible, pointless death is on Hamas' hands. Israel's best hope at this point is to truly root out Hamas, but even then finding peace will be a difficult task.

But that's the proximate cause for the war. There are also bigger wars being fought.

Islamists form the majority of the world's extremists right now. I can name a dozen major Islamist movements happening, and this war unlocked a huge victory in their PR strategy that works better on the Western audience than live beheadings. As long as you make white people feel bad about colonialism, and say the rights words like 'liberate' and 'decolonize', you will be able to manipulate millions of useful idiots to make apologizes on your behalf and support your naked grab for power. Hamas invaded Israel 3 times in the last 8 years, but only now got the attention it craves to stay relevant in the 21st century. I hope everyone really enjoys watching mass murder, suicide bombings and terrorist tactics, because there's plenty more where that comes from and now they know the right words to say to appease you while they do it. Prepare to be amazed just how many ground invasions, property seizures and destruction, kidnappings, mass murders and violent suppressionare actshually acts of liberation resistance that empower freedom-loving indigenous people to resist neocolonial oppression - even if not a shred of that is believable. I'm serious. This is one of those times when peace ceasefire movements are actually creating the perfect conditions for everlasting war.

This is also a non-nuclear nuclear war. The U.S. doesn't normally announce where they have sent its nuclear submarines but it notified the world that it sent 4 of them to the Red Sea in November. It's part of deterrence to have these beasts in undisclosed locations and able to quickly response to any attacks. Move them close and the response in even quicker - a clear message. Eliminating the advantage of a surprise attack really is important in holding off nuclear war because of mutually assured destruction (MAD). One problem with MAD is that it assumes that the attacking party don't want to die which... if you watch even a little jihadist propaganda you might get worried about how the death cult vibes undercut that deterrence. Now... as unmanned rockets get better and smarter and faster without those pesky human pilots, it's raising concerns about whether countries like Iran can develop its nuclear capability. Even if they can build a warhead, delivering it to its destination has always been a limiting factor, this is why the US dropped them from planes in WW2. In this war, Iran is (getting the Houthis as their proxy) testing out their latest weapon developments. The Houthis/Iran tried to attack Israel with a ballistic missile (it didn't have a nuclear warhead but is the kind of missile that could be equipped with one), which prompted Israel to test drive their brand new and unproven missile defence system called Arrow. It shot the Iranian missile out of the sky. This is huge. I can't stress this enough - technically speaking, humanity's first space battle has just been fought and Israel won. This is what Reagan's 'Star Wars' program was all about - essentially stopping a bullet by shooting it with another bullet. Because this favors defence (if your surprise attack might not penetrate the defenses but you still find yourself on the receiving end of a nuclear counter attack - you are less likely to want to strike) much more thoroughly than mere mutually assured destruction. It means an attacker will face the risk of being turned into carbon while their enemy yet survives - not easy for even the most dedicated fanatic to swallow.

On top of that, Israel has also developed a laser beam - as yet untested in this conflict - that could potentially address the ammunition supply and reloading problems that plague air defense systems. To overwhelm Israel's Iron Dome on Oct 7, Hamas fired 3,000 rockets in about 20 minutes. There are simply limitations to how quickly a defence system can target, fire and reload a physical rocket, plus they are disproportionately expensive compared to the homemade rockets that Hamas fires (that didn't cost anything except redirecting international aid that was supposed to be for water pipes and fertilizer, because civilians dying of thirst and hunger doesn't appear to be an issue for Hamas). A laser beam will speed everything up immensely. You see, when the Soviet Union fractured and collapsed, about a million Jews fled to Israel and since Jews are very experienced with the fleeing-the-country routine, they brought with them the greatest of riches - knowledge. Those Jewish scientists and engineers brought the electronic warfare and rocket development capabilities of the Soviets into the development pipeline of western military doctrine. This is a good, good thing not just for the West but for everyone. The war in Ukraine was demonstrating that lifting the fog of war was absolutely deadly - good communication platforms like drones means that targets well behind the front line are in view and within reach of missile and drone attacks. The only way, it seemed, to win a war was a surprise attack because once the defence was mobilized, any ground assault would be pinned down to a stalemate on the battlefield. Effective air defence turns the tables on the effectiveness of that first strike advantage. The odds of human survival have possibly extended beyond my lifetime again, and I'm grateful for that.

This is also a global local war. We've seen interest in the Russia-Ukraine war ebb away as a younger, hotter war emerges. But what about a war between Venezuela and Guayana? If the US gets involved in one, two, is that three different conflicts... can it cope with that? How are Taiwan's defenses going to hold with 1/3 or 1/4 of American military support? Israel doesn't need help of the U.S. to win this conventional war, although the U.S. could potentially help create a winnable peace to follow this, but Iran and its allies would love to drag the U.S. more directly into the conflict. So far, it's resisted.

But I don't know how this conflict evolves, that part of the story is not yet written. I pray for more good, and less bad, to come and hope peace can be found in time.

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