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justelectionnews · 2 years

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The Fate of the Impeachment 10 Republicans

10 Republicans voted for the 2nd Impeachment of Donald Trump. As most of the Primaries in 2022 have come and gone, I thought we'd have a look at these members of Congress and see how they've held up .

Who Are They

Liz Cheney (WY-AL)

Anthony Gonzalez (OH-16)

Jaime Herrera-Beutler (WA-03)

Dan Newhouse (WA-04)

John Katko (NY-24)

Adam Kinzinger (IL-16)

Peter Meijer (MI-03)

Tom Rice (SC-07)

Fred Upton (MI-06)

David Valadao (CA-21)

Announced Not Seeking Re-election

The following list contains the above members who have announced they are leaving Congress, choosing to not seek re-election for certain reasons. Some of those reasons will include retirement, re-districting, or other reasons.

Anthony Gonzalez (Toxic Environment)

John Katko (Retiring)

Adam Kinzinger (Re-Districting)

Fred Upton (Re-Districting)

Those Who've Lost Their Primary In 2022 (So Far)

The following list will dive a little into each primary race where an Impeachment 10 Republican LOST their primary race. As of August 4th, 2022, 2 have officially lost their re-election bids.

Rep. Tom Rice (SC-07)

Rep. Tom Rice (R) lost his primary back in mid-June to a current SC State Representative Russell Fry (R). The race was not close, with Fry winning over 50% of the vote in a field of 7 candidates. Rice was polling low in every poll conducted for the race, never exceeding 25% of the vote. His district, which covers Myrtle Beach and northeastern South Carolina, is a district that is R+11 generally and voted for Trump over both Clinton and Biden by around 18 points.

Rep. Peter Meijer (MI-03)

Rep. Peter Meijer (R) lost his primary race on August 2nd to John Gibbs, a former senior advisor in the Department of Housing & Urban Development who later became Assistant Secretary for Community Planning and Development in 2020 within HUD. Prior to that, he was a software engineer and had earned degrees from Harvard and Stanford. Gibbs defeated Meijer by a close 51.8-48.2. Gibbs hasn't served in any elected roles prior. The district in its previous form was an R+3 district, with previous Rep. Justin Amash (R) winning consistently in the mid-to-upper 50%'s. With re-districting significantly changing the shape and composition of the district, most projections put this race as a toss-up for the general election.

One final note: this race saw heavy last-minute ad-buys by the Democrat Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC - the official SuperPAC of House Democrats) labeling Gibbs as "too conservative". This is widely seen as having boosted Gibbs in his primary. The move was heavily criticized by activists and House Democrats on Twitter.

Those Who've Won Their 2022 Primary

There are currently only 3 members of the Impeach 10 that have won their primaries. They are as follows:

Rep. David Valadao (CA-21)

Rep. David Valadao secured one-of-two spots in California's jungle primary system. He secured just over 25% of the vote, placing second in the race. His opponent in November will be Rudy Salas (D), who won 45% in the primary. Valadao's seat has been shifted into re-districted into California's 22nd District. The previous district, the 21st, was a toss-up to Lean Democrat district that he won in 2020. The original 22nd District was a Safe Republican district. Due to re-districting efforts, both districts now rate between toss-up and Safe Democrat. No general election polling has been done to date, but the district is rated a toss-up.

Rep. Jaime Herrera-Beutler (WA-03)

Rep. Jaime Herrera-Beutler (R) won a top-2 spot in Washington's open-primary system. She won with 23% of the vote, compared to the closest GOP challenger Joe Kent at 22%. She will face Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D), who won more than 30% on Tuesday. The race is still seen as a Solid-Republican seat, with re-districting only taking away an eastern portion of the southwest Washington district. The district is rated as R+5%.

Rep. Dan Newhouse (WA-04)

Rep. Dan Newhouse (R) won a top-2 spot in Washington's open-primary system for the 4th District. He won with 26% of the vote in a field crowded by Republican challengers and a Democrat. His general election challenger will be Doug White (D), who advanced with 25% of the vote. Newhouse's closest of 6 Republican challengers won 21% of the vote, coming shy of several points from advancing to the fall general election. The district was made exclusively a central Washington district with an R+13% lean. Newhouse is likely to win re-election in the fall easily.

Awaiting Primary: Liz Cheney (WY-AL)

Rep. Liz Cheney (R) is the only Representative for Wyoming in the House of Representatives. She has served this district since 2017. The state is rated as an R+26% district, meaning that whichever Republican wins the primary is very likely to win in the general election. In previous primaries, Cheney was able to win with 75% support. Currently, though, that result looks unlikely. Current polling has Cheney in the mid-30's against Harriet Hageman, a former member of the RNC for Wyoming. On the other hand, Hageman leads with varying support above 50%.

Rumors have swirled around Cheney in recent months that she is considering a 2024 Presidential challenge in the GOP. Losing her congressional seat would put a damper on these hopes, as it would remove her from Congress and the notoriety she's gained in the course of the January 6th Committee investigations. Cheney is the only remaining Republican to have not completed her primary yet among the Impeachment 10.

The Primary for Wyoming's At-Large district will be held on August 16th.

#liz cheney #republicans #conservatives #donald trump #donald trump impeachment #impeachment #congress #adam kinzinger #2022 elections #wyoming #california #south carolina #illinois #new york #washington #michigan #ohio

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dailytafsirofquran · 2 years

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Tafsir Ibn Kathir: Surah Al-Ma’idah Ayah 32-34

In the Name of Allah, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful.

5:32 Because of that, We ordained for the Children of Israel that if anyone killed a person not in retaliation of murder, or (and) to spread mischief in the land - it would be as if he killed all mankind,

and if anyone saved a life, it would be as if he saved the life of all mankind.

And indeed, there came to them Our Messengers with Al-Bayyinat, even then after that many of them continued to exceed the limits in the land!

5:33 The recompense of those who wage war against Allah and His Messenger and do mischief in the land is only that they shall be killed or crucified, or their hands and their feet be cut off on opposite sides, or be exiled from the land.

That is their disgrace in this world, and a great torment is theirs in the Hereafter.

5:34 Except for those who (having fled away and then) came back (as Muslims) with repentance before they fall into your power; in that case, know that Allah is Oft-Forgiving, Most Merciful.

Human Beings Should Respect the Sanctity of Other Human Beings

Allah says,

Because of that,

Allah says, because the son of Adam killed his brother in transgression and aggression,

We ordained for the Children of Israel...,

meaning, We legislated for them and informed them,

that if anyone killed a person not in retaliation of murder, or (and) to spread mischief in the land - it would be as if he killed all mankind, and if anyone saved a life, it would be as if he saved the life of all mankind.

The Ayah states, whoever kills a soul without justification -- such as in retaliation for murder or for causing mischief on earth -- will be as if he has killed all mankind, because there is no difference between one life and another.

...and if anyone saved a life

by preventing its blood from being shed and believing in its sanctity, then all people will have been saved from him, so, (it would be as if he saved the life of all mankind).

Al-Amash and others said that Abu Salih said that Abu Hurayrah said,

"I entered on Uthman when he was under siege in his house and said, `I came to give you my support. Now, it is good to fight (defending you) O Leader of the Faithful!'

He said, `O Abu Hurayrah! Does it please you that you kill all people, including me?'

I said, `No.'

He said, `If you kill one man, it is as if you killed all people. Therefore, go back with my permission for you to leave. May you receive your reward and be saved from burden.'

So I went back and did not fight.''' Ali bin Abi Talhah reported that Ibn Abbas said,

"It is as Allah has stated,

if anyone killed a person not in retaliation of murder, or (and) to spread mischief in the land - it would be as if he killed all mankind, and if anyone saved a life, it would be as if he saved the life of all mankind.

Saving life in this case occurs by not killing a soul that Allah has forbidden.

So this is the meaning of saving the life of all mankind, for whoever forbids killing a soul without justification, the lives of all people will be saved from him.''

Similar was said by Mujahid; ...And if anyone saved a life

means, he refrains from killing a soul.

Al-`Awfi reported that Ibn Abbas said that Allah's statement, (it would be as if he killed all mankind...) means,

"Whoever kills one soul that Allah has forbidden killing, is just like he who kills all mankind.''

Sa`id bin Jubayr said,

"He who allows himself to shed the blood of a Muslim, is like he who allows shedding the blood of all people. He who forbids shedding the blood of one Muslim, is like he who forbids shedding the blood of all people.''

In addition, Ibn Jurayj said that Al-A`raj said that Mujahid commented on the Ayah, (it would be as if he killed all mankind),

"He who kills a believing soul intentionally, Allah makes the Fire of Hell his abode, He will become angry with him, and curse him, and has prepared a tremendous punishment for him, equal to if he had killed all people, his punishment will still be the same.''

Ibn Jurayj said that Mujahid said that the Ayah and if anyone saved a life, it(would be as if he saved the life of all mankind) means,

"He who does not kill anyone, then the lives of people are safe from him.''

Warning Those who Commit Mischief

Allah said,

And indeed, there came to them Our Messengers with Al-Bayyinat,

meaning, clear evidences, signs and proofs.

even then after that many of them continued to exceed the limits in the land!

This Ayah chastises and criticizes those who commit the prohibitions, after knowing that they are prohibited from indulging in them.

The Jews of Al-Madinah, such as Banu Qurayzah, An- Nadir and Qaynuqa, used to fight along with either Khazraj or Aws, when war would erupt between them during the time of Jahiliyyah. When these wars would end, the Jews would ransom those who were captured and pay the blood money for those who were killed. Allah criticized them for this practice in Surah Al- Baqarah,

And (remember) when We took your covenant (saying): Shed not your (people's) blood, nor turn out your own people from their dwellings. Then, (this) you ratified and (to this) you bear witness. 115

After this, it is you who kill one another and drive out a party of your own from their homes, assist (their enemies) against them, in sin and transgression. And if they come to you as captives, you ransom them, although their expulsion was forbidden to you. Then do you believe in a part of the Scripture and reject the rest Then what is the recompense of those who do so among you, except disgrace in the life of this world, and on the Day of Resurrection they shall be consigned to the most grievous torment. And Allah is not unaware of what you do. (2:84- )85

The Punishment of those Who Cause Mischief in the Land

Allah said next,

The recompense of those who wage war against Allah and His Messenger and do mischief in the land is only that they shall be killed or crucified or their hands and their feet be cut off on the opposite sides, or be exiled from the land.

`Wage war' mentioned here means, oppose and contradict, and it includes disbelief, blocking roads and spreading fear in the fairways. Mischief in the land refers to various types of evil.

Ibn Jarir recorded that Ikrimah and Al-Hasan Al-Basri said that the Ayat, (The recompense of those who wage war against Allah and His Messenger) until, (Allah is Of- Forgiving, Most Merciful),

"Were revealed about the idolators. Therefore, the Ayah decrees that, whoever among them repents before you apprehend them, then you have no right to punish them. This Ayah does not save a Muslim from punishment if he kills, causes mischief in the land or wages war against Allah and His Messenger and then joins rank with the disbelievers, before the Muslims are able to catch him. He will still be liable for punishment for the crimes he committed.''

Abu Dawud and An-Nasa'i recorded that Ikrimah said, that Ibn Abbas said that the Ayah The recompense of those(who wage war against Allah and His Messenger and do mischief in the land...),

"Was revealed concerning the idolators, those among them who repent before being apprehended, they will still be liable for punishment for the crimes they committed.''

The correct opinion is that this Ayah is general in meaning and includes the idolators and all others who commit the types of crimes the Ayah mentioned.

Al-Bukhari and Muslim recorded that Abu Qilabah Abdullah bin Zayd Al-Jarmi, said that Anas bin Malik said,

"Eight people of the Ukl tribe came to the Messenger of Allah and gave him their pledge to follow Islam. Al-Madinah's climate did not suit them and they became sick and complained to Allah's Messenger. So he said,

Go with our shepherd to be treated by the milk and urine of his camels.

So they went as directed, and after they drank from the camels' milk and urine, they became healthy, and they killed the shepherd and drove away all the camels. The news reached the Prophet and he sent (men) in their pursuit and they were captured. He then ordered that their hands and feet be cut off (and it was done), and their eyes were branded with heated pieces of iron. Next, they were put in the sun until they died.''

This is the wording of Muslim.

In another narration for this Hadith, it was mentioned that these people were from the tribes of Ukl or Uraynah.

Another narration reported that these people were put in the Harrah area (of Al-Madinah), and when they asked for water, no water was given to them.

Allah said,

they shall be killed or crucified or their hands and their feet be cut off on the opposite sides, or be exiled from the land.

Ali bin Abi Talhah said that Ibn Abbas said about this Ayah,

"He who takes up arms in Muslim land and spreads fear in the fairways and is captured, the Muslim Leader has the choice to either have him killed, crucified or cut off his hands and feet.''

Similar was said by Sa`id bin Al-Musayyib, Mujahid, Ata, Al-Hasan Al-Basri, Ibrahim An- Nakhai and Ad-Dahhak, as Abu Jafar Ibn Jarir recorded.

This view is supported by the fact that the word Aw (or), indicates a choice. As Allah said,

The penalty is an offering, brought to the Ka`bah, of an eatable animal equivalent to the 118

one he killed, as adjudged by two just men among you; or, for expiation, he should feed the poor, or its equivalent in fasting. (5:95)

Allah said,

And whosoever of you is ill or has an ailment in his scalp (necessitating shaving), he must pay a ransom of either fasting or giving charity or offering a sacrifice. (2:196)

and,

...for its expiation feed ten of the poor, on a scale of the average of that with which you feed your own families, or clothe them, or free a slave. )5:89(

All of these Ayat offer a choice, just as the Ayah above.

As for Allah's statement, (or be exiled from the land).

Ibn Jarir recorded from Ibn Abbas, Anas bin Malik, Sa`id bin Jubayr, Ad-Dahhak, Ar-Rabi` bin Anas, Az-Zuhri, Al- Layth bin Sa`d and Malik bin Anas that,

it means, he is actively pursued until he is captured, and thus receives his prescribed punishment, or otherwise he escapes from the land of Islam.

Some said that;

the Ayah means these people are expelled to another land, or to another state by the Muslims authorities.

Sa`id bin Jubayr, Abu Ash-Sha`tha, Al-Hasan, Az-Zuhri, Ad-Dahhak and Muqatil bin Hayyan said that;

he is expelled, but not outside of the land of Islam, while others said that he is to be imprisoned.

Allah's statement,

That is their disgrace in this world, and a great torment is theirs in the Hereafter.

means, the punishment We prescribed, killing these aggressors, crucifying them, cutting off their hands and feet on opposite sides, or expelling them from the land is a disgrace for them among mankind in this life, along with the tremendous torment Allah has prepared for them in the Hereafter.

This view supports the opinion that these Ayat were revealed about the idolators. As for Muslims, in his Sahih, Muslim recorded that Ubadah bin As-Samit said,

"The Messenger of Allah took the same pledge from us that he also took from women: That we do not associate anything with Allah in worship, we do not steal, commit adultery, or kill our children, and that we do not spread falsehood about each other.

He said that he who keeps this pledge, then his reward will be with Allah. He who falls into shortcomings and was punished, then this will be his expiation. And those whose errors were covered by Allah, then their matter is for Allah: If He wills, He will punish them and If He wills, He will pardon them.''

Ali narrated that the Messenger of Allah said,

He who sins in this life and was punished for it, then Allah is far more just than to combine two punishments on His servant. He who commits an error in this life and Allah hides this error and pardons him, then Allah is far more generous than to punish the servant for something that He has already pardoned.

Recorded by Ahmad, Ibn Majah and At-Tirmidhi who said, "Hasan Gharib.''

Al-Hafiz Ad-Daraqutni was asked about this Hadith, and he said that it was related to the Prophet in some narrations, and it was related to the Companions in others, and that this narration from the Prophet is Sahih.

Ibn Jarir commented on Allah's statement ,)That is their disgrace in this world

"Meaning, shame, humiliation, punishment, contempt and torment in this life, before the Hereafter, (and a great torment is theirs in the Hereafter), if they do not repent from these errors until death overcomes them. In this case, they will be stricken by the punishment that We prescribed for them in this life and the torment that We prepared for them therein, (a great torment) in the Fire of Jahannam.''

Allah said,

Except for those who (having fled away and then) came back (as Muslims) with repentance before they fall into your power; in that case, know that Allah is Oft- Forgiving, Most Merciful.

The Punishment of those who Wage War Against Allah and His Messenger is Annulled if They Repent Before their Apprehension

This Ayah is clear in its indication that it applies to the idolators.

As for the Muslims who commit this crime and repent before they are apprehended, the punishment of killing, crucifixion and cutting the limbs will be waved. The practice of the Companions in this regard is that all of the punishments prescribed in this case will be waved, as is apparent from the wording of the Ayah.

Ibn Abi Hatim recorded that Ash-Sha`bi said,

"Harithah bin Badr At-Tamimi was living in Al- Basra, and he committed the crime of mischief in the land. So he talked to some men from Quraysh, such as Al-Hasan bin Ali, Ibn Abbas and Abdullah bin Jafar, and they talked to Ali about him so that he would grant him safety, but Ali refused.

So Harithah went to Sa`id bin Qays Al-Hamadani who kept him in his house and went to Ali, saying, `O Leader of the Faithful! What about those who wage war against Allah and His Messenger and cause mischief in the land?' So he, recited the Ayah until he reached

Except for those who (having(fled away and them) came back (as Muslims) with repentance before they fall into your power).

So Ali wrote a document that granted safety, and Sa`id bin Qays said, `This is for Harithah bin Badr.'''

Ibn Jarir recorded this Hadith. Ibn Jarir recorded that `Amir Ash-Sha`bi said,

"A man from Murad came to Abu Musa, while he was the governor of Al-Kufah during the reign of Uthman, and said to him after he offered the obligatory prayer, `O Abu Musa! I seek your help.

I am so-and-so from Murad and I waged war against Allah and His Messenger and caused mischief in the land. I repented before you had any authority over me.'

Abu Musa proclaimed, `This is so-and-so, who had waged war against Allah and His Messenger and caused mischief in the land, and he repented before we had authority over him. Therefore, anyone who meets him, should deal with him in a better way. If he is saying the truth, then this is the path of those who say the truth. If he is saying a lie, his sins will destroy him. So the man remained idle for as long as Allah willed, but he later rose against the leaders, and Allah punished him for his sins and he was killed.''

Ibn Jarir recorded that Musa bin Ishaq Al-Madani said that;

Ali Al-Asadi waged war, blocked the roads, shed blood and plundered wealth. The leaders and the people alike, sought to capture him, but they could not do that until he came after he repented, after he heard a man reciting the Ayah,

O My servants who have transgressed against themselves! Despair not of the mercy of Allah, verily, Allah forgives all sins. Truly, He is Oft- Forgiving, Most Merciful. (39:53)

So he said to that man, "O servant of Allah! Recite it again.''

So he recited it again, and Ali put down his sword and went to Al-Madinah in repentance, arriving during the night. He washed up and went to the Masjid of the Messenger of Allah and prayed the dawn prayer. He sat next to Abu Hurayrah amidst his companions. In the morning, the people recognized him and went after him. He said, "You have no way against me. I came in repentance before you had any authority over me.''

Abu Hurayrah said, "He has said the truth,'' and he held his hand and went to Marwan bin Al- Hakam, who was the governor of Al-Madinah during the reign of Muawiyah.

Abu Hurayrah said, "This is Ali and he came in repentance and you do not have a way against him, nor can you have him killed.''

So Ali was absolved of punishment and remained on his repentance and went to the sea to perform Jihad in Allah's cause.

The Muslims met the Romans in battle, and the Muslims brought the ship Ali was in to one of the Roman ships, and Ali crossed to that ship and the Romans escaped from him to the other side of the ship, and the ship capsized and they all drowned.''

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liesexposer · 2 years

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🚫 Jamiati Ubaid ur Rahman exposes his Turathi Hizbee manhaj 🚫

Ubaidur Rahman of Jamiat al-Hind (Mudeer Jamiat Markaz Bhiwandi Mumbai, aide of Turathi slanderer Anees ur Rahman & Abu Zaid Zameer) visits Deviant Hizb Ihya Turath at their Auditorium in Kuwait to collaborate with Hizbee Sub-sect Indian Branch of Deviant Ihya Turath: “Lajna al-Qarra al-Hindiyah”.

Jamiat Ihya at-Turath al-Bidaati is a deviant Hizb warned against by major scholars for their misguidance, founded by Deviant Abdur-Rahman Abdul-Khaliq & led by Deviant Uthman Khamees

Video Chapters: 00:00:00 - Intro 00:00:05 - Copyright 00:00:09 - Main 00:01:58 - Poster of Deviant Hizb Ihya Turath & Lajna al-Qarra al-Hindiyah 00:02:13 - Jamiat Ihya Turath al-Bidati Auditorium in Kuwait 00:05:48 - Outro

قــال عبــد الله بــن مسعــود -رضــي الله عنــه-: "إنمــا يماشــي الرجــل و يصاحــب مــن يحبــه ، ومــن هــو مثلــه" (الإبانــة 2/476) وقــال أبــو الــدرداء -رضــي الله عنــه-: "مــن فقــه الرجــل ممشــاه ، ومدخلــه ، و مجلســه" (الإبانــة 2/464)

Ibn Masood - radiallaahu anhu - said, "Indeed a person walks alongside and accompanies the one whom he loves and who is like him." Al-Ibaanah (2/476)

Abu ad-Dardaa - radiallaahu anhu - said, "It is from the fiqh (understanding of a person) that he [chooses] those whom he walks with, whom he enters upon (visits) and whom he sits with." Al-Ibaanah (2/477)

Moosaa bin Uqbah the Syrian approached Baghdad and this was mentioned to Imaam Ahmad. So it was said, "Look at whose residence he goes to and with whom he resides and finds shelter." Al-Ibaanah (2/480)

Al-Amash said, "They (the Salaf) did not used to ask anything more about a person after having asked about three affairs: Who he walks with, who he enters upon (i.e. visits) and who he associates with amongst the people." Al-Ibaanah (2/478) Imaam Al-Awzaaee said, "Whoever hides his innovation from us will not be able to hide his companionship from us." Al-Ibaanah (2/476)

Further reading on deviance of Hizb Ihya Turath: http://dusunnah.com/video/ruling-on-the-one-who-does-not-make-tabdi-on-ihya-at-turath-shaykh-ahmad-an-najmi/

#jamiatahlehadees #ahlehadeesinternational #salafi #abuzaidzameer #aneesurrehman #ubaidUrRehman

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politiciandirect · 5 years

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Justin Amash Votes to Table Impeachment Resolution Against Trump

Rep. Justin Amash (I-MI), who became the first Republican lawmaker to call for the impeachment of President Donald Trump, voted to table a House resolution to begin the process to oust the president on Wednesday.

The House voted Wednesday to kill a resolution brought by Rep. Al Green (D-TX) to impeach President Trump in response to a series of tweets Democrats are calling racist.

House…

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#Al Green #breitbart #Donald Trump #Impeachment #Justin Amash #Politics

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jami-attirmidhi · 3 years

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JAMI’at-TIRMIDHI: The Book on Al-Witr: Hadith 1416

Ka'b bin Ujrah narrated:

"We said: 'O Messenger of Allah! We have learned about saying the Salam to you, but how about As-Salat upon you?' He said: 'Say: (Allahumma salli ala Muhammadin Wa Ala ali Muhammadin kama sallaita Ala Ibrahim, Innaka hamidan MAjid, Wa barik Ala Muhammadin wa Ala ali Muhammadin kamma barakta Ala Ibrahim Innaka Hamidan Majid)" O Allah! Send Salat upon Muhammad and upon Muhammad's family just as You have sent Salat upon Ibrahim, indeed You are the Praise and Majestic. And send blessings upon Muhammad and Muhammad's family just as You have sent blessing upon Ibrahim, indeed You are the Praised and Majestic.'Mahmud said: "Abu Usamah said: Za'idah added something for me, from Al-Amash, from Al-Hakam, from Abdur-Rahman bin Abi Laila, that he said: "We would say 'And upon us along with them.'"

JAMI’at-TIRMIDHI: The Book on Al-Witr

Reference : Jami` at-Tirmidhi 483

In-book reference : Book 3, Hadith 31

English translation : Vol. 1, Book 3, Hadith 483

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theliberaltony · 3 years

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via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

In 2018, Democrats took back the House thanks to a blue wave that ran right through America’s suburbs. Now the question is, can they hold onto that majority?

The answer is probably yes, as Democrats are clear favorites, according to the final version of FiveThirtyEight’s House forecast, which gives them a 97 in 100 chance of winning control of the House.1

Overall, the House contest appears to have significantly less drama than either the race for the presidency or the Senate, both of which are far more competitive. Democrats currently control 233 seats to the GOP’s 201 seats,2 with retiring Libertarian Rep. Justin Amash the lone third-party member in the chamber. So to win back the House, Republicans need a net gain of 17 seats to achieve a majority of 218, which is one reason why their odds of taking back the chamber are so low (3 in 100). That’s a lot of House seats in a presidential cycle, as a party has only gained that many twice in the past 10 presidential elections.

But perhaps the even bigger reason why Democrats are favored to keep control of the House — as well as maybe win the White House and even the Senate — is that the electoral environment looks quite good for their party. If we look at the polling average from our congressional generic ballot tracker, which includes all polls that ask respondents whether they plan to vote for the Democrat or Republican in their local congressional race, Democrats lead by 7.3 percentage points. That margin speaks to a strong national environment for Democrats and isn’t that far off from the 8.7-point edge Democrats had heading into the 2018 midterm elections. And as the chart below shows, this lead hasn’t fluctuated much over the past year.

What this has meant practically is that the overall electoral environment has boosted the chances of House Democrats, but most notably it’s given a leg up to those who captured Republican seats in 2018 and are now seeking reelection. Of the 41 Democrats who flipped seats in 2018 — not counting one who resigned and another who switched parties — 30 have at least a 3 in 4 shot of holding onto their seat. This despite the fact that President Trump carried 20 of those 41 seats when he won in 2016. These conditions, along with strong Democratic fundraising and mediocre Republican candidate recruitment in many key races, have left a pretty short list of Democratic incumbents who are in serious danger of defeat, as the table below shows.

Most House Democrats in competitive races have good odds

Democratic House incumbents who are seeking reelection and have less than a 95 percent chance of winning, according to the final numbers from the Deluxe version of FiveThirtyEight’s forecast

District Incumbent Flipped GOP seat in 2018 Chance of winning Rating MN-07 Collin Peterson 19% Likely R OK-05 Kendra Horn ✓ 51 Toss-up NM-02 Xochitl Torres Small ✓ 55 Toss-up UT-04 Ben McAdams ✓ 56 Toss-up CA-21 TJ Cox ✓ 58 Toss-up NY-11 Max Rose ✓ 58 Toss-up SC-01 Joe Cunningham ✓ 64 Lean D CA-48 Harley Rouda ✓ 68 Lean D NV-04 Steven Horsford 72 Lean D NY-22 Anthony Brindisi ✓ 73 Lean D CA-39 Gil Cisneros ✓ 74 Lean D GA-06 Lucy McBath ✓ 74 Lean D TX-07 Lizzie Pannill Fletcher ✓ 75 Lean D NJ-07 Tom Malinowki ✓ 76 Likely D OR-04 Peter DeFazio 78 Likely D VA-07 Abigail Spanberger ✓ 79 Likely D FL-27 Donna Shalala ✓ 81 Likely D FL-26 Debbie Mucarsel-Powell ✓ 82 Likely D NV-03 Susie Lee 83 Likely D NH-01 Chris Pappas 84 Likely D TX-32 Colin Allred ✓ 84 Likely D WI-03 Ron Kind 84 Likely D IA-03 Cindy Axne ✓ 84 Likely D IL-06 Sean Casten ✓ 87 Likely D VA-02 Elaine Luria ✓ 87 Likely D IL-14 Lauren Underwood ✓ 87 Likely D IA-01 Abby Finkenauer ✓ 87 Likely D AZ-01 Tom O’Halleran 88 Likely D PA-17 Conor Lamb ✓ 89 Likely D CA-10 Josh Harder ✓ 92 Likely D PA-08 Matt Cartwright 92 Likely D MI-11 Haley Stevens ✓ 93 Likely D NJ-03 Andy Kim ✓ 93 Likely D MN-02 Angie Craig ✓ 93 Likely D CA-45 Katie Porter ✓ 94 Likely D NC-01 G.K. Butterfield 94 Likely D MI-08 Elissa Slotkin ✓ 94 Likely D NY-19 Antonio Delgado ✓ 94 Likely D

In other words, these seemingly more competitive seats are, for the most part, not necessarily that close, which limits the GOP’s path back to a majority. Nevertheless, a handful of Democratic incumbents are in jeopardy of losing. In fact, the most vulnerable incumbent from either party is Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson of Minnesota, who has about a 1 in 5 chance of winning reelection in a seat that Trump won by 31 points four years ago, according to Daily Kos Elections. Beyond Peterson, five other Democrats fall into the “toss-up” range in our forecast: Reps. Kendra Horn of Oklahoma, TJ Cox of California, Max Rose of New York, Xochitl Torres Small of New Mexico and Ben McAdams of Utah. Of that quintet, Cox is the outlier because he’s the only one running in a seat that is pretty Democratic-leaning at the presidential level — Trump lost it by 16 points in 2016 — whereas the others all hold seats Trump won by at least 7 points. But Cox’s seat is probably one of the better candidate recruitment situations for the GOP, as ex-Rep. David Valadao, who Cox defeated by less than 1 point in 2018, is back for a rematch.

Aside from the strength of their incumbents, Democrats have also benefited from the sheer number of Republican retirements this year. Not to mention, some GOP primary challenges that resulted in some incumbents losing renomination. Although the incumbency advantage is not nearly as strong as it once was, open seats tend to be harder for the incumbent party to retain, and the disproportionate number of Republican exits from the House has left some vulnerable turf for them to defend. As the table below shows, this means Republicans are defending almost all of the 17 open seats where neither party is a safe bet.

Republicans are defending more competitive open seats

Democratic chances of victory in open House seats where the incumbent party has less than a 95 percent chance of winning, according to the final numbers from the Deluxe version of FiveThirtyEight’s forecast

District Incumbent Party Dem. chances Rating NC-02 R 100% Safe D NC-06 R 100 Safe D IA-02 D 88 Likely D TX-23 R 74 Lean D NY-02 R 57 Toss-up IN-05 R 50 Toss-up VA-05 R 49 Toss-up TX-24 R 48 Toss-up MI-03 L 44 Toss-up GA-07 R 43 Toss-up CO-03 R 39 Lean R TX-22 R 32 Lean R NC-11 R 27 Lean R MT-AL R 23 Likely R FL-15 R 19 Likely R KS-02 R 9 Likely R CA-50 R 5 Likely R

While Democrats are only outright favorites in three GOP-held seats, that trio account for half of the six seats that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016 that Republicans still control (GOP incumbents are running in the other three). Two are near-certain Democratic pickups thanks to North Carolina’s court-ordered redistricting, which made those seats much more Democratic-leaning and precipitated the retirements of two Republican incumbents. And Republican Rep. Will Hurd’s retirement in Texas’s 23rd Congressional District, which Trump lost by 3 points in 2016, has given Democratic nominee Gina Ortiz Jones a clear edge there. Additionally, Democrats are roughly even bets to win a number of other open Republican-held districts, including suburban seats like Indiana’s 5th Congressional District around Indianapolis and New York’s 2nd Congressional District on Long Island, both left open by retirements. They also have a shot at winning GOP-controlled seats where the incumbent lost renomination, such as Virginia’s 5th Congressional District and Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District. What’s more, only one Democratic-held open seat — Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District — is at all in play, and the Democrats have nearly a 9 in 10 chance of keeping it.

Lastly, Democrats are also in an enviable position because they stand to defeat some Republican incumbents in competitive contests, too. Whereas only 13 Democratic incumbents seeking reelection have less than a 3 in 4 chance of winning reelection, slightly more Republicans — 14 — are in the same position. Still, the one silver lining for Republicans is that none of their incumbents is a clear underdog, as the table below shows. So most of these races might be a bit of a reach for Democrats hoping to pad their margins.

House Republicans whose seats aren’t “safe”

Republican House incumbents who are seeking reelection and have less than a 95 percent chance of winning, according to the final numbers from the Deluxe version of FiveThirtyEight’s forecast

District Incumbent Chance of winning Rating CA-25 Mike Garcia 45% Toss-up NJ-02 Jeff Van Drew 50 Toss-up PA-10 Scott Perry 52 Toss-up AZ-06 David Schweikert 57 Toss-up OH-01 Steve Chabot 58 Toss-up MN-01 Jim Hagedorn 60 Lean R NE-02 Don Bacon 60 Lean R IL-13 Rodney Davis 63 Lean R NY-24 John Katko 64 Lean R NC-08 Richard Hudson 66 Lean R AR-02 French Hill 66 Lean R MO-02 Ann Wagner 69 Lean R TX-21 Chip Roy 71 Lean R MI-06 Fred Upton 71 Lean R AK-AL Don Young 79 Likely R WA-03 Jaime Herrera Beutler 82 Likely R PA-01 Brian Fitzpatrick 84 Likely R KY-06 Andy Barr 85 Likely R NY-01 Lee Zeldin 86 Likely R TX-25 Roger Williams 89 Likely R NC-09 Dan Bishop 90 Likely R MI-07 Tim Walberg 90 Likely R FL-16 Vern Buchanan 90 Likely R TX-03 Van Tayor 90 Likely R OH-10 Mike Turner 91 Likely R TX-10 Michael McCaul 92 Likely R TX-06 Ron Wright 92 Likely R FL-18 Brian Mast 93 Likely R VA-01 Rob Wittman 93 Likely R CA-42 Ken Calvert 93 Likely R TX-31 John Carter 94 Likely R OH-12 Troy Balderson 94 Likely R MN-08 Pete Stauber 95 Likely R

GOP Rep. Mike Garcia, who won a special election earlier this year to fill a vacancy in California’s 25th Congressional District, heads into the election as the most at-risk Republican incumbent. But along with Garcia are four others in toss-up contests: Reps. Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey, Scott Perry of Pennsylvania, David Schweikert of Arizona and Don Bacon of Nebraska. Van Drew won as a Democrat in 2018 but switched parties after voting against impeaching Trump, probably thinking he’d have an easier time as a Republican in a district that backed Trump by about 5 points in 2016, but the race is super close and he’s been outraised by Democrat Amy Kennedy — yes, part of that Kennedy family. Bacon, meanwhile, is defending a seat that could also matter a great deal in the presidential race because Nebraska apportions one electoral vote to each of its congressional districts, and its 2nd Congressional District is somewhat more likely to vote for Biden than Trump.

Bottom line: Democrats have benefited from an overall Democratic-leaning national environment, in addition to a number of strong Democratic incumbents, a sizable number of competitive Republican-held open seats and some vulnerable GOP officeholders. There’s no fuzziness here in what our forecast says: Democrats are in a very strong position to maintain control of the House. We’ll see how it plays out once the votes are counted, but a Democratic hold would be one of the more unsurprising outcomes in this election.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #Geoffrey Skelley

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somethingusefulfromflorida · 4 years

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13 Keys to the White House: UPDATE

The original post can be read here, I wrote it a day before George Floyd was murdered, and the political landscape has shifted SO MUCH since then.

There are 13 questions that define which party will win the presidential election based on how well the incumbent and challenging parties have fared over the last four years. The incumbent party needs 8 out of 13 to be true to win, while the challengers need 6 or more to be false. As of May 25, it stood, in order of severity

FALSE

Almost certainly false

Probably false

Maybe false

Unclear

Maybe

Maybe true

True as of right now

TRUE

Biden and Trump both has 3 solid keys in their field, with three more teetering on either side, and one tossup in the middle. It was anybody’s game, though Biden had a slight edge because he only needs 6 to Trump’s 8.

Not everything has changed in the last week, but just enough to solidify some of the less certain keys

Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. FALSE (Democrats won more in 2018 than Republicans won in 2014)

Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. TRUE (Donald Trump faces no real challengers)

Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. TRUE (barring the coronavirus, or a heart attack brought on by all the fast food he eats, Donald Trump will be the nominee this November)

Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. TRUE (Amash has dropped out, and the Libertarians have nominated a nobody who chose an even smaller nobody as her running mate. But then again, the election is 5 months away, which in 2020-months is approximately 9000 years away; a lot can change between now and then. I mean, just 5 months ago the coronavirus hadn’t spread outside of China yet. Maybe a conservative spoiler will gain traction. Maybe some disillusioned republicans will rally behind a write-in candidate. Maybe an asteroid hits and we all have to move underground and evolve into C.H.U.D.s to survive. Anything goes in 2020. Blow on them dice, LUCK BE A LADY)

Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. FALSE (The Great Shutdown, the second once-in-a-lifetime economic collapse in less than 15 years. We’re only four months into it right now; things are going to get so much worse before they get better.)

Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Almost Certainly False (Unemployment continues to rise at record breaking levels. Civil unrest is widespread in all 50 states, several territories, and even international cities in solidarity with the cause. The pandemic is far from over, and we are on the verge of a second wave.. There’s no chance in hell the economy will grow this year. 2020 is the Spiders Georg of years; it is a statistical outlier, it’s so low it’ll bring down the rest of the whole term, wiping out all growth since 2017. I mean, Republicans wanted trump to run the country like one of his businesses, and he’s giving them exactly what they wanted. This is his MO; run it into the ground, declare bankruptcy, don’t pay anyone, move onto your next failed project. Same shit as always)

Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.Unclear (He hasn’t kept many of his campaign promies, but he has enriched himself and his colleagues, abusing the power of the executive for personal gain, which is a pretty major change. This key will come down to the Supreme Court decisions on his tax returns; if they decide in favor of the president, they are saying that he doesn’t have to obey subpoenas anymore, expanding the powers of the president and getting rid of legislative oversight, checks and balances; this would be a HUGE policy change akin to declaring him a king, as it would mean he is no long capable of being held accountable for anything. If they decide against him though, a lot of skeletons will come bursting out of his closet, which may or may not damage him politically. Let’s be honest, they won’t. Nothing ever does. The tax returns could reveal that he has been paying a Russian company called “WE MEDDLE, YOU WIN, GUARANTEE” for thirty years, and he and his cronies will still spin it as a positive thing. Nothing ever hurts this guy, so I wonder why he even gives a shit about hiding his taxes anymore. All we know is that he has to be hiding something BIG if he’s going this far to try and cover it up, Could this take him down? Probably not, but fingers crossed.)

Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. FALSE (I made this post before the George Floyd protests began, but there’s no ambiguity about it now. The cracks in the system have been expanding for years, and now the dam has finally burst. And rightfully so; riots are the language of the unheard. My only concerns are that if the protests continue into November, a bunch of republican lawmakers are gonna use it as an excuse to stop people from voting. ”Curfew begins at 8PM, anyone still in line at their polling places will be arrested and/or shot”)

Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. FALSE (there’s only so much you an handle before you drop all pretenses and say “this is no longer subjective, this is objectively scandalous.” Everything they do is designed to get as big a reaction as possible, they pick the objectively worst people and take the objectively worst positions on everything because they’re trying to stoke controversy. Russia, Ukraine, carrots and potatoes. The real meat are all the domestic scandal. Turning off the White House lights and hunkering in a safe space underneath it like PUNK ASS BITCH? Mobilizing the National Guard around the country? Teargassing protestors so he can pose with a Bible he’s never read in front of a church he’s never attended, holding it up like it’s some annoying obligation of his, “see? See, I like the Bible. Look, I’m holding it up. Why would I be holding it up if I didn’t just LOOOOOVE it? Can everybody see? I’m holding it out at arms length and waving it back and forth just to make sure all the cameras know, I want then to get a good shot of it. I will shortly give it to an aide and be taken home in my limo, at which point I will forget the Bible exists because my brain is turning to jelly and I’ve lost the concept of object permanence.”)

Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Maybe (on the one hand, Iran didn’t retaliate when we killed their general, but on the other hand we retreated out of Syria, let thousands of ISIS fighters go, and aided the Turks in a Kurdish genocide. The tit-for-tat sanctions against China threatened to crash the global economy, but then the coronavirus came in and did that all by itself, so it’s unclear whether we’ve “failed” or simply “not succeeded.”)

Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Maybe false? (for the same reason as above, it is hard to judge what is or isn’t a success. USMCA is unpopular and small potatoes. The North Korean talks are all show with no substance; Kim will never get rid of his nukes. We’re still caught up in W’s endless wars, and I don’t see an end in sight, so I’d say this is definitely not a success. I have no doubt in my mind the October Surprise is gonna be another bombing in Iran to kill the ayatollah. The Iran War will start on November 3, same day as the election, there will be the first draft since Vietnam, a bunch of POCs will be forced into the military as cannon fodder; it’ll be a bloodbath for both sides)

Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. FALSE (Trump is revered as the Second Coming of Christ by his base, but they make up less than 40% of the total country; other Republicans tolerate him at best, and all Democrats hate him. He has never had majority approval, he will never go down with the likes of the universally beloved Washington, Lincoln, and the Roosevelts. The most surprising thing of the last six months has got to be the emergence of the Lincoln Project, a coalition of Republicans who have finally grown spines, guts, and balls to stand up against trump and actively campaign against him. He doesn’t have total party control anymore, the Republicans are eroding, though to be fair the Democrats eroded a long time ago; the Republicans are a crumbling cairn, longstanding but now weakened and in danger of falling over, while the Democrats are a nice gravel walkway that everyone steps on and complains about even though the walkway is a nice addition to the park; it really ties the negative space together, linking the tennis courts with the pull-up bars. I’ve lost the thread of this analogy)

Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. TRUE (Joe Biden is the Walter Mondale of Al Gores. Republicans hate him, even though he’s a moderate an would almost certainly try to reach across the aisle to compromise with them. Which is exactly why about half of Democrats don’t really like him; he’s too moderate and would work with Republicans. He’s old and senile, he keeps making gaffe after gaffe after gaffe, and doesn’t seem to know how the game is played anymore. Someone needs to find Grampa a nice home so he can retire and talk to his nurse about how he used to get into fist fights with ne’er-do-wells, “buncha malarkey, I tell ya”)

This gives us, from best to worst:

FALSE

Almost Certainly False

Maybe false

unclear

Maybe

TRUE

Incumbent Trumps needs 8 true to win. Challenger Biden needs 6 false to win.

Biden definitely has 5, he only needs 1 more to claim it, and there are two good keys that are leaning heavily in his favor; trump’s long-term economy is in the tank, and he hasn’t had any victories overseas. Biden has this one in the bag [don’t grow complacent, there’s still plenty of fuckery to be had from here to November]

Trumps would need to flip four keys to win, only one of which leans in his favor, one is unclear, and two are in Biden’s court. The economy is in ruins, he hasn’t set up any real domestic Trump Doctrine, and the military has neither succeeded nor failed in any meaningful way these last four years. He’s going into November with a major disadvantage, perhaps the only time in his life he has ever not had an advantage.

But then again, there’s always the possibility that it could be a 2000/2016 repeat, where Biden wins the popular vote but Trump ekes by with the electoral college victory yet again. This model doesn’t take that into account because the popular vote winner almost always wins the EC too.

Trump is not more popular today than he was 4 years ago. He’s never had majority approval. While his base loves him more now than ever, they represent a minority of voters, and pretty much everyone else hates him. Anyone who was on the fence in 2016 is definitively over the fence in 2020. If he “wins,” it’s not going to be a 1972/1984 blowout, that’s just not gonna happen, too many states hate him too much. It will be very close; I will not rule out the possibility of a 269-269 tie in the electoral college, triggering a contingent election where the House of Representatives has to pick the president. Democrats have a majority in the House right now, but in contingent elections they don’t vote as 435 individuals, they vote as 50 state blocs; even though there are more Democrats than Republicans, they’re packed together into as few states as possible, giving Republicans over 26 stateside majorities, enough to ensure they would pick Trump in a contingent election.

It’s a bullshit system, and I pray it doesn’t come to that.

#allan lichtman #13 keys to the white house #13 keys #white house #election #presidency #2020 election #joe biden #biden #donald trump #trump #biden 2020 #predictions #political

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libertariantaoist · 4 years

Link

News Roundup 5/18/20

by Kyle Anzalone

US News

Justin Amash drops out of the presidential race. [Link]

People cleared by New York’s AG to be released due to coronavirus remain in prison. [Link]

Federal police ran an operation where they identified potential sex trafficking victims, had the women perform sexual acts, and then arrested them. [Link]

White House adviser Peter Navarro has been pushing for more weapon sales throughout the Trump presidency. Navarro’s push has been key to keeping Saudi Arabia supplied with arms as it commits war crimes in Yemen. [Link]

Afghanistan

The two men claiming to be Afghanistan’s president strike a power-sharing deal. Under the deal, Abdullah Abdullah will lead negotiations with the Taliban. [Link]

The Pentagon says it is continuing its drawdown from Afghanistan and is on pace to meet the timeline laid out in the agreement with the Taliban. [Link]

A Taliban suicide bomber attacked an intelligence agency building, killing seven Afghan soldiers. [Link]

Middle East

The US is threatening Iran for shipping fuel to Venezuela. [Link]

An Israeli airstrike killed at least seven Shia fighters crossing from Iraq to Syria. [Link]

Africa

Two displaced people were killed by fighting near Tripoli, Libya. [Link]

Al-Shabaab killed a Somali governor and three of his bodyguards in a suicide bombing. [Link]

At least 20 civilians were killed by armed militants in the Congo. [Link]

#kyle anzalone #immersion news #libertarian institute #news roundup

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eretzyisrael · 5 years

Text

Barbara Lee does NOT speak for me.

In an unusual example of unity and bipartisanship, the House voted 398-17 in favor of

H. Res 246. Opposition to the movement to isolate Israel through the tactic of boycotts, divestments and sanctions (BDS) is consistent on both sides of the aisle in Congress.

Text of the resolution follows.

Opposing efforts to delegitimize the State of Israel and the Global Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions Movement targeting Israel.

Resolved, That the House of Representatives—

(1) opposes the Global Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions Movement (BDS Movement) targeting Israel, including efforts to target United States companies that are engaged in commercial activities that are legal under United States law, and all efforts to delegitimize the State of Israel;

(2) affirms that the Global Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions Movement undermines the possibility for a negotiated solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by demanding concessions of one party alone and encouraging the Palestinians to reject negotiations in favor of international pressure;

(3) urges Israelis and Palestinians to return to direct negotiations as the only way to achieve an end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict;

(4) supports the full implementation of the United States-Israel Strategic Partnership Act of 2014 (Public Law 113–296; 128 Stat. 4075) and new efforts to enhance government-wide, coordinated United States-Israel scientific and technological cooperation in civilian areas, such as with respect to energy, water, agriculture, alternative fuel technology, civilian space technology, and security, in order to counter the effects of actions to boycott, divest from, or sanction Israel; and

(5) reaffirms its strong support for a negotiated solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict resulting in two states—a democratic Jewish State of Israel, and a viable, democratic Palestinian state—living side-by-side in peace, security, and mutual recognition.

Yet Barbara Lee, representing California's 13th district voted against this mild bill, which reaffirms the US's commitment to a peaceful negotiated solution to the hostilities in the Middle East. Jared Huffman from Marin, California's 2nd Congressional district, did not register a vote.

For future reference, these are the Congressional representatives who do not support a "negotiated solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict resulting in two states—a democratic Jewish State of Israel, and a viable, democratic Palestinian state—living side-by-side in peace, security, and mutual recognition."

Nays (17)

Republicans (1)

Thomas Massie (KY-04)

Democrats (16)

Earl Blumenauer (OR-03)

André Carson (IN-07)

Debbie Dingell (MI-12)

Jesús “Chuy” García (IL-04)

Raúl M. Grijalva (AZ-03)

Pramila Jayapal (WA-07)

Barbara Lee (CA-13)

Betty McCollum (MN-04)

Gwen Moore (WI-04)

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (NY-14)

Ilhan Omar (MN-05)

Chellie Pingree (ME-01)

Mark Pocan (WI-02)

Bobby L. Rush (IL-01)

Rashida Tlaib (MI-13)

Bonnie Watson Coleman (NJ-12)

Not Voting (18)

Republicans (7)

Ralph Abraham (LA-05)

Kelly Armstrong (ND-AL)

Greg Gianforte (MT-AL)

Louie Gohmert (TX-01)

Sam Graves (MO-06)

Martha Roby (AL-02)

Chris Stewart (UT-02)

Democrats (10)

Karen Bass (CA-37)

Danny K. Davis (IL-07)

Vicente Gonzalez (TX-15)

Jared Huffman (CA-02)

Hank Johnson (GA-04)

Seth Moulton (MA-06)

Nancy Pelosi (CA-12)

Cedric L. Richmond (LA-02)

Tim Ryan (OH-13)

Frederica S. Wilson (FL-24)

Independents (1)

Justin Amash (MI-03)

Just in case you still held out a glimmer of hope that J Street was pro-Israel, they have endorsed the majority of the Democratic Representatives who voted against this resolution.

Pro Israel Bay Bloggers

#Israel #BDS #H. Res 246 #Barbara Lee #Jared Huffman

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i-asifeq · 5 years

Text

Al-A’mash (rahimahullaah) said:

”A man who used to speak to the Jinn informed us that they (i.e. the Jinn) said: ”There is none more severe upon us than the one who follows the Sunnah. As for the people of desires (i.e. the innovators), we play about with them.”

[Source: Talbees Iblees of Imaam Ibnul Jawzee (rahimahullaah) with the checking of Al-Allaamah Zaid Bin Haadee Al-Madkhalee, page 43]

Source: http://www.salaficentre.com/2012/11/what-did-the-jinn-tell-the-man-who-informed-al-amash/

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illidanstr · 5 years

Text

man i am so pissed about what they’re doing to Amash let me rant ok here it goes

so Amash is a Republican US Congressman from Michigan. Grand Rapids. (which, IIRC, is the land of of the Dutch Reformed Calvinists, real fundamentalists. if I am not mistaken my parents met and got married while being Calvinists there, as Calvinists do. For reference, Calvinists are people who think Southern Baptists are exceedingly liberal.) Amash’s own history is Syrian Christian, tho.

He’s a founding member of the super hardcore Freedom Caucus. Him and I are not exactly on the same side of the aisle. BUT.

He’s also a principled libertarian. So when the rest of the Republican party and most of the Democrats were saying “let’s throw all our rights in the trash with the PATRIOT Act and FISA warrants,” he was the lone voice saying, “Actually, this is wrong.” You can’t even really ask him whether he thinks a President should have invaded another country because he actually still believes Congress has to declare war for it to be valid so the answer is automatically “no.”

So he read the 448 page Mueller report and noted on Twitter that

A. nobody from either party had actually read the report because they already had their positions ready to go when it was released

2. Barr lied his arse off about it (”misrepresented”)

3. it seemed to him that, Constitutionally, Trump should be impeached

this is entirely in keeping with Amash’s historical positions on things. This is not a cry for attention but rather his inability to water down his own beliefs with a few drops of self-preservation.

SO!

you may have noticed that if anybody gets into a disagreement with President Trump, there is a large character assassination racket that starts off on the underground conservative sites, from where it gets picked up by talk radio, and then on to mass dissemination by Fox News and getting spread by Facebook shares. So! How do you possibly pick on someone with these kinds of conservative credentials and this much principle?

Trump stooge Devin Nunes had called Amash “Al Qaeda's best friend in Congress” over his opposition to completely demolishing all of our rights to attack Muslims, but that’s a dangerous line of attack given that Trump-gang doesn’t especially like FISA warrants right now and they’re trying to blame Middle Eastern intervention on Democrats.

Here is the answer: Amash’s family business started by his father manufactures tools overseas (some in the US, mostly in Taiwan, but some in China)

http://dcwhispers.com/is-anti-trump-republican-justin-amash-choosing-china-over-america/#Bcyfq2CApWDErPIq.99

which means that he is a LYING CHINESE GLOBALIST SCUM (remember George Soros? Yes! You’ve got it!) trying to destroy our nation through the sin of participating in international trade

#politics #fuck trump #fuck trumpists #auuuuuuuuuuuugh

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dailytafsirofquran · 3 years

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Tafsir Ibn Kathir: Surah Al-Baqarah Ayah 7-9

In the Name of Allah, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful.

7. Allah has set a seal on their hearts and on their hearing, and on their eyes there is a covering. Theirs will be a great torment.

Meaning of Khatama

Allah said,

Allah has set a seal on their hearts and on their hearing, and on their eyes there is a covering. Theirs will be a great torment.

As-Suddi said that, (Khatama Allah) means, "Allah has sealed.''

Qatadah said that this Ayah means, "Shaytan controlled them when they obeyed him. Therefore, Allah sealed their hearts, hearing and sight, and they could neither see the guidance nor hear, comprehend or understand.''

Ibn Jurayj said that Mujahid said, (Allah has set a seal on their hearts), "A stamp. It occurs when sin resides in the heart and surrounds it from all sides, and this submersion of the heart in sin constitutes a stamp, meaning a seal.''

Ibn Jurayj also said that the seal is placed on the heart and the hearing.

In addition, Ibn Jurayj said, that Abdullah bin Kathir narrated that Mujahid said, "The stain is not as bad as the stamp, the stamp is not as bad as the lock which is the worst type.''

Al-Amash said, "Mujahid demonstrated with his hand while saying, `They used to say that the heart is just like this - meaning the open palm. When the servant commits a sin, a part of the heart will be rolled up - and he rolled up his index finger. When the servant commits another sin, a part of the heart will be rolled up' - and he rolled up another finger, until he rolled up all of his fingers.

Then he said, `Then, the heart will be sealed.'

Mujahid also said that this is the description of the Ran (refer to 83:14).''

Al-Qurtubi said, "The Ummah has agreed that Allah has described Himself with sealing and closing the hearts of the disbelievers, as a punishment for their disbelief.

Similarly, Allah said, (Nay, Allah has set a seal upon their hearts because of their disbelief), (4:155).''

He then mentioned the Hadith about changing the hearts, (in which the Prophet supplicated), O You Who changes the hearts, make our hearts firm on Your religion.

He also mentioned the Hadith by Hudhayfah recorded in the Sahih, in which the Messenger of Allah said, The Fitan (trials, tests) are offered to the hearts, just as the straws that are sewn into a woven mat, one after another. Any heart that accepts the Fitan, then a black dot will be engraved on it. Any heart that rejects the Fitan, then a white dot will be engraved on it. The hearts will therefore become two categories: white, just like the barren rock; no Fitnah shall ever harm this category as long as the heavens and earth still exist. Another category is black, just as the cup that is turned upside down, for this heart does not recognize righteousness or renounce evil.

Ibn Jarir said, "The truth regarding this subject is what the authentic Hadith from the Messenger of Allah stated. Abu Hurayrah narrated that the Messenger of Allah said, When the believer commits a sin, a black dot will be engraved on his heart. If he repents, refrains and regrets, his heart will be polished again. If he commits more errors, the dots will increase until they cover his heart. This is the Ran (stain) that

Allah described, Nay! But on their hearts is the Ran (stain) which they used to earn.'' (83:14)

At-Tirmidhi, An-Nasa'i and Ibn Majah recorded this Hadith, and At-Tirmidhi said that it is Hasan Sahih.

The Meaning of Ghishawah

Reciting the Ayah, (Allah has set a seal on their hearts and on their hearing), then pausing, then continuing with, (And on their eyes there is a Ghishawah (covering)) is accurate, for the stamp is placed on the heart and the hearing while the Ghishawah, the covering, is appropriately placed on the eyes.

In his Tafsir, As-Suddi said that Ibn Abbas and Ibn Mas`ud said about Allah's statement, (Allah has set a seal on their hearts and on their hearing), "So that they neither understand nor hear. Allah also said that He placed a covering on their sight, meaning eyes, and so, they do not see.''

8. And of mankind, there are some who say: "We believe in Allah and the Last Day'' while in fact they do not believe.

9. They try to deceive Allah and those who believe, while they only deceive themselves, and perceive (it) not!

The Hypocrites

We mentioned that four Ayat in the beginning of Surah Al-Baqarah described the believers. The two last Ayat (2:6-7) describe the disbelievers.

Afterwards, Allah begins to describe the hypocrites who show belief and hide disbelief. Since the matter of the hypocrites is vague and many people do not realize their true reality, Allah mentioned their description in detail. Each of the characteristics that Allah used to described them with is a type of hypocrisy itself. Allah revealed Surah Bara'h and Surah Al-Munafiqun about the hypocrites. He also mentioned the hypocrites in Surah An-Nur and other Surahs, so that their description would be known and their ways and errors could be avoided.

Allah said, And of mankind, there are some who say: "We believe in Allah and the Last Day'' while in fact they do not believe.

They try to deceive Allah and those who believe, while they only deceive themselves, and perceive (it) not!

Meaning of Nifaq

Nifaq means to show conformity - or agreement - and to conceal evil. Nifaq has several types:

* Nifaq in the creed that causes its people to reside in Hell for eternity, and

* Nifaq in deed, which is one of the major sins, as we will explain soon, Allah willing.

Ibn Jurayj said of the hypocrite that, "His actual deeds are different from what he publicizes, what he conceals is different from what he utters, his entrance and presence are not the same as his exit and absence.''

The Beginning of Hypocrisy

The revelations about the characteristics of the hypocrites were revealed in Al-Madinah, this is because there were no hypocrites in Makkah. Rather the opposite was the situation in Makkah, since some people were forced to pretend that they were disbelievers, while their hearts concealed their faith. Afterwards, the Messenger of Allah migrated to Al-Madinah, where the Ansar from the tribes of Aws and Khazraj resided. They used to worship idols during the pre-Islamic period of ignorance, just as the rest of the Arab idolators. Three Jewish tribes resided in Al-Madinah, Banu Qaynuqa-allies of Al-Khazraj, Banu An-Nadir and Banu Qurayzah-allies of the Aws. Many members of the Aws and Khazraj tribes embraced Islam. However, only a few Jews embraced Islam, such as Abdullah bin Salam.

During the early stage in Al-Madinah, there weren't any hypocrites because the Muslims were not strong enough to be feared yet. On the contrary, the Messenger of Allah conducted peace treaties with the Jews and several other Arab tribes around Al-Madinah. Soon after, the battle of Badr occurred and Allah gave victory to Islam and its people.

Abdullah bin Ubayy bin Salul was a leader in Al-Madinah. He was Al-Khazraj's chief, and during the period of Jahiliyyah he was the master of both tribes - Aws and Khazraj. They were about to appoint him their king when the Message reached Al-Madinah, and many in Al-Madinah embraced Islam.

Ibn Salul's heart was filled with hatred against Islam and its people. When the battle of Badr took place, he said, "Allah's religion has become apparent.'' So he pretended to be Muslim, along with many of those who were just like him, as well as many among the People of the Book.

It was then that hypocrisy began in Al-Madinah and among the surrounding nomad tribes. As for the Emigrants, none of them were hypocrites, since they emigrated willingly (seeking the pleasure of Allah). Rather, when a Muslim would emigrate from Makkah, he would be forced to abandon all of his wealth, offspring and land; he would do so seeking Allah's reward in the Hereafter.

The Tafsir of Ayah 2:8

Allah said, And of mankind, there are some who say: "We believe in Allah and the Last Day'' while in fact they do not believe.

Muhammad bin Ishaq narrated that Ibn Abbas said that, "This refers to the hypocrites among the Aws and Khazraj and those who behaved as they did.''

This is how Abu Al-Aliyah, Al-Hasan, Qatadah and As-Suddi explained this Ayah.

Allah revealed the characteristics of the hypocrites, so that the believers would not be deceived by their outer appearance, thus saving the believers from a great evil.

Otherwise, the believers might think that the hypocrites were believers, when in reality they are disbelievers. To consider the sinners as righteous people is extremely dangerous, Allah said, (And of mankind, there are some who say: "We believe in Allah and the Last Day'' while in fact they do not believe) meaning, they utter these false statements only with their tongues, just as Allah said, When the hypocrites come to you (O Muhammad), they say: "We bear witness that you are indeed the Messenger of Allah.'' Allah knows that you are indeed His Messenger. (63:1)

This Ayah means that; the hypocrites utter these statements only when they meet you, not because they actually believe what they are saying. The hypocrites emphasize their belief in Allah and the Last Day with their words, when that is not the case in reality.

Therefore, Allah stated that the hypocrites lie in their testimony of creed, when He said, (And Allah bears witness that the hypocrites are indeed liars), (63:1), and, (while in fact they believe not). Allah said, (They try to deceive Allah and those who believe). The hypocrites show belief outwardly while concealing disbelief. They think that by doing this, they will mislead Allah, or that the statements they utter will help them with Allah, and this is an indication of their total ignorance. They think that such behavior will deceive Allah, just as it might deceive some of the believers.

Similarly, Allah said, On the Day when Allah will resurrect them all together; then they will swear to Him as they swear to you. And they think that they have something (to stand upon).

Verily, they are liars! (58:18)

Hence, Allah refuted their way by saying, While they only deceive themselves, and perceive (it) not!

Allah stated that the hypocrites only deceive themselves by this behavior, although they are unaware of this fact.

Allah also said,

Verily, the hypocrites try to deceive Allah, but it is He Who deceives them. (4:142)

Also, Ibn Abi Hatim narrated that Ibn Jurayj commented on Allah's statement, "The hypocrites pronounce, `There is no deity worthy of worship except Allah' seeking to ensure the sanctity of their blood and money, all the while concealing disbelief.''

Allah's statement; And of mankind, there are some who say: "We believe in Allah and the Last Day'' while in fact they believe not. They try to deceive Allah and those who believe, while they only deceive themselves, and perceive (it) not!

Sa`id said that Qatadah commented, "This is the description of a hypocrite. He is devious; he says the truth with his tongue and defies it with his heart and deeds. He wakes up in a condition other than the one he goes to sleep in, and goes to sleep in a different condition than the one he wakes up in. He changes his mind just like a ship that moves about whenever a wind blows.''

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