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istumpysk · 8 months

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OPERATION ICEBERG: THE TIER LIST

THEORY:

Ned Stark + Ashara Dayne = Jon Snow (N + A = J)

TIER:

Debunked: These theories have been directly contradicted by the text, George R. R. Martin, or other authoritative sources.

[Tier list overview]

EVIDENCE:

Ashara Dayne was a Dornish noblewoman, rumored to be Jon Snow's mother. Her life ended under mysterious and tragic circumstances.

We're first told of the rumor that Ashara Dayne is Jon Snow's supposed mother in one of the opening chapters of A Game of Thrones.

Ned would not speak of the mother, not so much as a word, but a castle has no secrets, and Catelyn heard her maids repeating tales they heard from the lips of her husband's soldiers. They whispered of Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning, deadliest of the seven knights of Aerys's Kingsguard, and of how their young lord had slain him in single combat. And they told how afterward Ned had carried Ser Arthur's sword back to the beautiful young sister who awaited him in a castle called Starfall on the shores of the Summer Sea. The Lady Ashara Dayne, tall and fair, with haunting violet eyes. It had taken her a fortnight to marshal her courage, but finally, in bed one night, Catelyn had asked her husband the truth of it, asked him to his face. That was the only time in all their years that Ned had ever frightened her. "Never ask me about Jon," he said, cold as ice. "He is my blood, and that is all you need to know. And now I will learn where you heard that name, my lady." She had pledged to obey; she told him; and from that day on, the whispering had stopped, and Ashara Dayne's name was never heard in Winterfell again. - Catelyn II, AGOT

The name resurfaces when Cersei Lannister, who has evidently heard the same rumors, uses Ashara to challenge Ned's honor.

In the next book, Catelyn once again ponders the possibility that Ashara might be Jon's mother.

Arya was the only one to show much of Ned in her features. And Jon Snow, but he was never mine. She found herself thinking of Jon's mother, that shadowy secret love her husband would never speak of. Does she grieve for Ned as I do? Or did she hate him for leaving her bed for mine? Does she pray for her son as I have prayed for mine? They were uncomfortable thoughts, and futile. If Jon had been born of Ashara Dayne of Starfall, as some whispered, the lady was long dead; if not, Catelyn had no clue who or where his mother might be. And it made no matter. Ned was gone now, and his loves and his secrets had all died with him. - Catelyn VI, ACOK

When Bran hears the tale of the Knight of the Laughing Tree, we learn more about Ned and Ashara's initial meeting and their dance at Harrenhal.

The crannogman saw a maid with laughing purple eyes dance with a white sword, a red snake, and the lord of griffins, and lastly with the quiet wolf . . . but only after the wild wolf spoke to her on behalf of a brother too shy to leave his bench. - Bran II, ASOS

In an Arya chapter, Edric Dayne of House Dayne—presumably someone with insider knowledge—reveals more details about Ned and Ashara's alleged love affair. Harwin confirms that he has also heard such rumors.

"My father was Ser Arthur's elder brother. Lady Ashara was my aunt. I never knew her, though. She threw herself into the sea from atop the Palestone Sword before I was born." "Why would she do that?" said Arya, startled. Ned looked wary. Maybe he was afraid that she was going to throw something at him. "Your lord father never spoke of her?" he said. "The Lady Ashara Dayne, of Starfall?" "No. Did he know her?" "Before Robert was king. She met your father and his brothers at Harrenhal, during the year of the false spring." "Oh." Arya did not know what else to say. "Why did she jump in the sea, though?" "Her heart was broken." Sansa would have sighed and shed a tear for true love, but Arya just thought it was stupid. She couldn't say that to Ned, though, not about his own aunt. "Did someone break it?" He hesitated. "Perhaps it's not my place . . ." "Tell me." He looked at her uncomfortably. "My aunt Allyria says Lady Ashara and your father fell in love at Harrenhal—" "That's not so. He loved my lady mother." "I'm sure he did, my lady, but—" "She was the only one he loved." "He must have found that bastard under a cabbage leaf, then," Gendry said behind them. [...] It was Harwin who rode up beside her, in the end. "Where do you think you're going, milady? You shouldn't run off. There are wolves in these woods, and worse things." "I'm not afraid," she said. "That boy Ned said . . ." "Aye, he told me. Lady Ashara Dayne. It's an old tale, that one. I heard it once at Winterfell, when I was no older than you are now." He took hold of her bridle firmly and turned her horse around. "I doubt there's any truth to it. But if there is, what of it? When Ned met this Dornish lady, his brother Brandon was still alive, and it was him betrothed to Lady Catelyn, so there's no stain on your father's honor. There's nought like a tourney to make the blood run hot, so maybe some words were whispered in a tent of a night, who can say? Words or kisses, maybe more, but where's the harm in that? Spring had come, or so they thought, and neither one of them was pledged." - Arya VIII, ASOS

Barristan Selmy, who was present at Harrenhal and held great fondness for Ashara Dayne, recalls her suicide over a lost child and/or a man dishonoring her. He wonders whether he could have prevented her becoming enamored with "Stark."

But Ashara's daughter had been stillborn, and his fair lady had thrown herself from a tower soon after, mad with grief for the child she had lost, and perhaps for the man who had dishonored her at Harrenhal as well. She died never knowing that Ser Barristan had loved her. How could she? He was a knight of the Kingsguard, sworn to celibacy. No good could have come from telling her his feelings. No good came from silence either. If I had unhorsed Rhaegar and crowned Ashara queen of love and beauty, might she have looked to me instead of Stark? - The Kingbreaker, ADWD

Lastly, Catelyn mentions that Ned refers to Jon as his son, a claim corroborated in the book's opening chapter.

"Beyond a doubt," his lord father said. "Come, let us see what mischief my sons have rooted out now." He sent his horse into a trot. Jory and Bran and the rest came after. - Bran I, AGOT

The Starks were not like other men. Ned brought his bastard home with him, and called him "son" for all the north to see. - Catelyn II, AGOT

COUNTER-EVIDENCE:

God, where do we begin?

The confirmation from George R. R. Martin to David Benioff and D.B. Weiss regarding Jon's true parentage.

It's well known that David Benioff and D.B. Weiss correctly guessed Jon's true parents, giving George R. R. Martin the confidence to let them adapt his book series.

Martin recounted, "I did ask them a few pointed question to determine whether they had actually read the books, and they gave me the right answers." When asked to specify what they were grilled on, Weiss elaborated: He asked us, "Who is Jon Snow's mother?" We had discussed it before, and we gave a shocking answer. At that point, George didn't actually say whether or not we were right or wrong, but his smile was his tell. We knew we had passed the Wonka test, at that point. — The 'Game of Thrones' writers had to answer this trick question about the book before they were allowed to make the series

Who were Jon's parents in the television series adapted and written by David Benioff and D.B. Weiss?

Right.

The leaked original outline.

Here.

Arya will be more forgiving... until she realizes, with terror, that she has fallen in love with Jon, who is not only her half-brother but a man of the Night's Watch, sworn to celibacy. Their passion will continue to torment Jon and Arya throughout the trilogy, until the secret of Jon's true parentage is finally revealed in the last book.

Until. Until.

Let me point out the obvious here: if Jon were Ned's child with Ashara Dayne, there would be no parentage reveal that could relieve the torment felt by Jon and Arya. They would still be half-siblings, and it would still be unacceptable for them to be in love. Not much of a reveal then, is it?

The original intended purpose of revealing Jon's parentage was not to place him on a throne or to fulfill a special prophecy; rather, it was to pave the way for a possible romance with a sister. This doesn't work if Ned Stark is his father.

The timeline simply doesn't add up.

The tourney at Harrenhal, where Ned danced with Ashara, took place in 281 AC. Ned traveled down from the Eyrie.

It was the year of false spring, and he was eighteen again, down from the Eyrie to the tourney at Harrenhal. - Eddard XV, AGOT

The year after that tournament, Rhaegar abducted Lyanna, leading to the eventual deaths of Brandon and Rickard Stark, and the start of Robert's Rebellion.

With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands. Not ten leagues from Harrenhal, Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark of Winterfell, and carried her off, lighting a fire that would consume his house and kin and all those he loved—and half the realm besides. - The World of Ice and Fire - The Fall of the Dragons: The Year of the False Spring

Ned Stark had returned to the Eyrie following the tournament.

"At the dawn of Robert's Rebellion. The Mad King had sent to the Eyrie for Stark's head, but Jon Arryn sent him back defiance. Gulltown stayed loyal to the throne, though. To get home and call his banners, Stark had to cross the mountains to the Fingers and find a fisherman to carry him across the Bite. [...]" - Davos I, ADWD

Robert's Rebellion spanned 282-283 AC.

Are you wondering what Ned was up to during that time? I'll tell you.

(map!)

Ned Stark was in the Eyrie when King Aerys demanded his head.

Unable to use Gulltown, he crossed the Mountains of the Moon to get to the Fingers.

He then hired a fisherman to take him to White Harbor, but a storm rerouted him to the Three Sisters.

Thankfully, Lord Borrell granted him safe passage to continue on to White Harbor.

Upon reaching Winterfell, Ned immediately called his banners.

He subsequently marched south to the Stoney Sept and helped secure a victory in the Battle of the Bells.

Following that battle, he travelled to Riverrun and married Catelyn Tully.

At this point, Robb Stark was conceived.

Around this same period, Jon Snow should also have been conceived.

After that, Ned participated in the Battle of the Trident, contributing to the defeat of House Targaryen's forces (laugh out loud).

He then marched to King's Landing, only to find that Tywin Lannister had already sacked the city.

Note: Ashara Dayne was not present.

He then moved on to Storm's End to lift the siege, thereby saving Stannis Baratheon (and pissing me off).

Following this, he travelled to the Tower of Joy in the Red Mountains of Dorne. There, he defeated Arthur Dayne among others, and discovered his dying sister, Lyanna Stark.

Before her death, Lyanna made Ned promise her something. (Prioritize self-care? Never stop learning? Forgive yourself for past mistakes? Save and invest? Be the best you can be? Gosh, who could say.)

After the events at the Tower of Joy, he travelled to Starfall, the home of Ashara Dayne, to return the ancestral sword of House Dayne.

Note: He did not stay for 40 weeks.

Finally, Ned returned to Winterfell, bringing with him a baby and a wet nurse.

Shortly after, Catelyn Stark arrived at Winterfell with Robb Stark, who was considered the older of the two babies by literally everyone.

The end.

So, I ask you, given that Jon wasn't conceived at the tournament at Harrenhal in 281 AC—

Jon was fourteen, an old hand at justice. - Bran I, AGOT

Robb is fourteen. Soon enough, he will be a man grown. - Catelyn II, AGOT

When the wars were over at last, and Catelyn rode to Winterfell, Jon and his wet nurse had already taken up residence. - Catelyn II, AGOT

All of which is a long winded way of saying, no, Jon was not born "more than 1 year" before Dany... probably closer to eight or nine months or thereabouts. - George R. R. Martin

—when exactly, during Robert's Rebellion, did Ned manage to teleport himself to Ashara Dayne to conceive this child?

Catelyn Stark is a smart woman, but sometimes emotional distress can cloud one's judgment.

The Brandon Stark Consideration.

In true George R. R. Martin fashion, there's hints that another Stark may be more relevant to Ashara Dayne.

Ned Dayne casually mentions that Ashara met not only Ned at Harrenhal, but also his brothers.

"Before Robert was king. She met your father and his brothers at Harrenhal, during the year of the false spring." - Arya VIII, ASOS

When Bran hears about Ned and Ashara's dance, an ellipsis of truth clarifies that this occurred only after a conversation between Brandon Stark and Ashara.

[What the hell is an ellipsis of truth? George R. R. Martin frequently uses an ellipsis as a technique to emphasize statements in the text that are highly relevant or truthful.]

Barristan's reference to 'Stark' is amusingly vague and non-identifying.

If I had unhorsed Rhaegar and crowned Ashara queen of love and beauty, might she have looked to me instead of Stark? - The Kingbreaker, ADWD

In A Dance with Dragons, we learn that unlike Ned Stark, Brandon Stark was the type of guy to dishonor a highborn woman he had no intention of marrying.

Brandon was never shy about taking what he wanted. I am old now, a dried-up thing, too long a widow, but I still remember the look of my maiden's blood on his cock the night he claimed me. I think Brandon liked the sight as well. A bloody sword is a beautiful thing, yes. It hurt, but it was a sweet pain. - The Turncloak, ADWD

I have a feeling we'll hear more and more about Brandon Stark and Ashara Dayne in the upcoming books.

The complete and total absence of Ashara Dayne in Ned Stark's thoughts.

Ned Stark is an introspective man, often dwelling on past events and his family. So why is it that in all his chapters, he never once thinks of Ashara Dayne, his great love and the alleged mother of one of his children, who tragically took her own life?

He doesn't reflect on her when thinking about Jon, while recalling Robert's Rebellion, when considering Arthur Dayne, or even during his recollections of the tournament at Harrenhal where they supposedly fell in love.

It sort of feels like the woman means absolutely nothing to him.

"Honor," she spat. "How dare you play the noble lord with me! What do you take me for? You've a bastard of your own, I've seen him. Who was the mother, I wonder? Some Dornish peasant you raped while her holdfast burned? A whore? Or was it the grieving sister, the Lady Ashara? She threw herself into the sea, I'm told. Why was that? For the brother you slew, or the child you stole? Tell me, my honorable Lord Eddard, how are you any different from Robert, or me, or Jaime?" "For a start," said Ned, "I do not kill children. You would do well to listen, my lady. I shall say this only once. When the king returns from his hunt, I intend to lay the truth before him. You must be gone by then. You and your children, all three, and not to Casterly Rock. If I were you, I should take ship for the Free Cities, or even farther, to the Summer Isles or the Port of Ibben. As far as the winds blow." - Eddard II, AGOT

Nothing! Unaffected. Unfazed. It rolled right off him.

Confused Edric Dayne.

Edric Dayne tells Arya that his aunt, Allyria, told him that Ned and Ashara fell in love at Harrenhal.

A few things to consider:

Edric Dayne was born in 287 AC, well after the events of Harrenhal and the Rebellion.

Arya got goosebumps when Lord Beric said her father's name, but this Ned was only a boy, a fair-haired squire no more than ten or twelve. - Arya VI, ASOS

Edric Dayne doesn't actually believe Ashara is Jon's mother. He thinks Jon's mother was his wet nurse, Wylla.

(I hope I don't have to point out again that Ned Stark didn't stay at Starfall for 40 weeks, and this story makes no sense.)

(I'm sure I also don't need to point out that the author prevents little Ned from claiming something factually untrue and swearing it on the honor of his house.)

"Brother?" Arya did not understand. "But you're from Dorne. How could you and Jon be blood?" "Milk brothers. Not blood. My lady mother had no milk when I was little, so Wylla had to nurse me." Arya was lost. "Who's Wylla?" "Jon Snow's mother. He never told you? She's served us for years and years. Since before I was born." "Jon never knew his mother. Not even her name." Arya gave Ned a wary look. "You know her? Truly?" Is he making mock of me? "If you lie I'll punch your face." "Wylla was my wetnurse," he repeated solemnly. "I swear it on the honor of my House." - Arya VIII, ASOS

But what about his aunt Allyria, who told him Ned and Ashara fell in love?

Well, we don't know a lot about Allyria, but we do know one thing: she was betrothed to Beric Dondarrion in 294 AC or 295 AC.

"How long have you been Lord Beric's squire?" she asked, to take his mind from his misery. "He took me for his page when he espoused my aunt." He coughed. "I was seven, but when I turned ten he raised me to squire. I won a prize once, riding at rings." - Arya VIII, ASOS

Beric Dondarrion was born in either 276 AC or 277 AC. He was 21 years old at the beginning of A Game of Thrones, which would make him a young boy during the tournament of Harrenhal and the Rebellion.

Beric Dondarrion was handsome enough, but he was awfully old, almost twenty-two - Sansa III, AGOT

Given cultural norms, Beric's age, and the year of their betrothal, what is the likelihood that Allyria is younger than Beric? I'd say very likely.

That would make her a little girl during the events of Harrenhal and the Rebellion, so it's doubtful she has firsthand knowledge of Ashara or Ned.

The "son" issue.

Yes, Ned refers to Jon as his son in Bran's opening chapter. Yes, Catelyn claims Ned calls Jon his son. However, I have to point out, we're often shown Ned referring to Jon as anything but his son.

"He is my blood, and that is all you need to know. [...]" - Catelyn II, AGOT

The look Ned gave her was anguished. "You know I cannot take him south. There will be no place for him at court. A boy with a bastard's name … you know what they will say of him. He will be shunned." - Catelyn II, AGOT

Riding through the rainy night, Ned saw Jon Snow's face in front of him, so like a younger version of his own. If the gods frowned so on bastards, he thought dully, why did they fill men with such lusts? - Eddard IX, AGOT

To her credit, Cersei did not look away. "He saw us. You love your children, do you not?" Robert had asked him the very same question, the morning of the melee. He gave her the same answer. "With all my heart." "No less do I love mine." Ned thought, If it came to that, the life of some child I did not know, against Robb and Sansa and Arya and Bran and Rickon, what would I do? Even more so, what would Catelyn do, if it were Jon's life, against the children of her body? He did not know. He prayed he never would. - Eddard XII, AGOT

The thought of Jon filled Ned with a sense of shame, and a sorrow too deep for words. If only he could see the boy again, sit and talk with him - Eddard XV, AGOT

Lord Eddard seemed much younger this time. His hair was brown, with no hint of grey in it, his head bowed. "… let them grow up close as brothers, with only love between them," he prayed, "and let my lady wife find it in her heart to forgive …" - Bran III, ADWD

Other things to consider:

Quick question, what impact would Jon's identity as a secret Dayne have on the overall narrative? None. Hello?

Anyone with two brain cells should be able to figure out that when the book quickly reveals Ashara Dayne as Jon's real mother, that's obviously not the case.

It's pretty easy to tell that Ned Stark is not the type of man to cheat on his wife or dishonor a maiden. He's the quiet wolf who's too shy to speak to girls.

While George has never explicitly confirmed the R+L=J theory himself, he has been known to slip once or twice when being pressed on the topic.

Since all of their mothers died, who gave Jon Snow, Daenerys Targaryen and Tyrion Lannister their names? Mothers can name a child before birth, or during, or after, even while they are dying. Dany was most like named by her mother, Tyrion by his father, Jon by Ned. - George R. R. Martin

Lastly, and most important,

THE INESCAPABLE, OVERWHELMING, INDISPUTABLE, OPEN-AND-SHUT, CRYSTAL CLEAR, AVALANCHE OF EVIDENCE THAT CAN BE FOUND IN EVERY SINGLE BOOK AND SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL POINTING TO LYANNA STARK AND RHAEGAR TARGARYEN BEING JON SNOW'S ACTUAL PARENTS. HOLY FUCK.

Is there more? Probably. But I'm tired and I think I've made enough points.

STUMPY'S THOUGHTS:

I hate this theory like I hate flat earthers.

Just out there being stupid for no reason.

VOTE:

I welcome discussions. Feel free to reblog, respond, or challenge my perspective—I won't be offended by any of it.

Please note, if "no" is the eventual winner, or if it's competitive, a second poll will be conducted to determine the proper location.

NEXT THEORY:

The Hound is the gravedigger.

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