Kiss & Cry - Episode 4
Welcome to the fourth Episode of “Kiss & Cry”, Max&Angelo’s Podcasts.
If you missed previous Episodes, you can catch up with it here (1), (2), (3)
This third podcast is 154:17 minutes long (so, good luck to anyone who’ll be brave enough to go through it all ;) and even biggest thanks to our editor and proofreader, Gladi: please don’t kill anyone of us three! ), and it’s available to be listened in Italian here: https://www.spreaker.com/user/talk-sport/puntata-4_1
In the following translation, (M) indicates when M. Ambesi is speaking, (A) indicates when A. Dolfini is speaking, (H) when the Host, A. Genuzio, intervenes.
Translated by The-A-Factor Team. Please do not repost without permission.
Table of Content
Junior Grand Prix - Analysis of what happened at Egna and during qualification stage.
Senior Grand Prix - Preview of first Event, Rostelecom Cup.
Q&A Session
[T/n: This translation starts at 3:00. In the first minutes, Genuzio thanks listeners for the feedback over last episode, introduce Max and Angelo and lists the topics covered in this episode]
Part 1: Junior Grand Prix
Analysis of what happened in the whole qualification series with a particular focus on Italian juniors and Matteo Rizzo’s historical win in last stage at Egna.
(H): Let’s start with the Junior Grand Prix; we’ll try to sum up what happened and draw our conclusions with a view towards the final.
(M): Yes, let’s start by saying that Russia won 10 consecutive ladies’ competitions, something that had never happened before; the old record belonged to the US: they won 8 consecutive JGPs, but we have to go back to over ten years ago. The most impressive thing is how the Russian girls won these competitions – by dominating the field. Sometimes they even had two girls on the podium, one in first and the other in second place. Though, I have to say that in my opinion the “wrong” Russian lady won in Egna, the least competitive among the two. The GP was won by Sofia Samodurova, who qualified for the final with two gold medals, while Alyona Kostornaya who, at least in theory, could have had something more, had to settle for second, though just by a few hundredths of a point.
They represent two completely different views on skating: Samodurova comes from St Petersburg, from Mishin’s school – and, well, his wife’s – while Kostornaya has started training with Tutberidze’s group a few months ago, and she has already shown to be a complete skater, maybe she’s even more suited to compete in the senior category – if her body will allow her to do so.
There’s another athlete who qualified through the last GP, Rika Kihira, who finished ahead of another Japanese lady, who turned up out of nowhere, but proved to be very competitive, especially on toe jumps. Name is Nana Araki, and she’s the strongest of the field when it comes to toe jumps, although she did not manage to qualify for the final.
We have five Russian ladies in the final, four coached by Tutberidze, while Samodurova comes from Mishin’s school, and Rika Kihira from Japan, coached by Mie Hamada. Kihira could actually win, because if she nails the 3A, she will have an advantage. It’s obvious from what we’ve seen so far that Tutberidze’s girls are more consistent at the moment: Trusova is going into the final as the first seed – she won two GPs, and in both of them, she tried a 4S as the first jumping pass in her free skate. Things didn’t go like she wanted in both cases – they actually went better the first time around [it was landed but called UR, while she fell on it in her second JGP] – but it’s obvious that if she nails it, nobody else can win.
Without 4S, the competition is very open: Alyona Kostornaya will go to the final with the highest score we’ve ever seen during a JGP, as she got almost 200 points in her first GP – there’s someone who’s done better in a Final, see Alina Zagitova. Daria Panenkova can compete with her teammates, if she’s in peak condition: she has always had problems with the Flip, but she seems to have solved them almost completely now. Tarakanova is the one who struggled the most – she’s the newest in Tutberidze’s group – but if she skates well, her GOE on toe jumps could make a difference, especially when it comes to the Lutz. She lacks a bit of consistency if compared to the others though.
However, this is an army: I’ve never seen 4 athletes who share the same coach in a Final. I guess it isn’t even easy to manage all these girls in the same competition at once – I’d also like to you remind you that Tutberidze already has 7 ladies who have qualified for Russian nationals. Out of these 7, 3 will try to qualify for the Olympics – the names are the usual ones: Medvedeva, Zagitova and Tsurskaya – and the others won’t be at disadvantage, as they have the technical content to compete with the senior girls; actually some of them are even stronger than most seniors in theory.
Anyway, the ladies’ final will be very interesting; I do think it’s the juicy part of what we’ll see in Nagoya, there’s no other field that could be so interesting. The kind of quality we have in the ladies’ field is unique.
(A): Yes, the ladies field this year had an even higher level than in the past, and I have to say the ladies’ competition is usually the most fascinating of the junior field. You’ve already said pretty much everything, and I agree with your analysis: I’d say there are three girls who have the biggest chances to win, Trusova, Kostornaya and, naturally, Rika Kihira, who qualified in spite of a bad free skate, with several mistakes. In spite of that, she has already shown to be quite mature; her 3A, much like Trusova’s 4S, could make a difference.
There are also many talented girls who didn’t manage to reach the final. You talked about Nana Araki, but there are also the Korean girls, You Young and Lim Eunsoo, some other interesting Japanese girls and even other Russian girls – like Gulyakova, who was second in Brisbane, but didn’t have a second JGP. She sure has potential. The level was extremely high and the last GP, in Egna, was amazing; the fact that three girls qualified through it is further proof that the field was incredible.
(M): Let’s go into details now and highlight what are the differences between these girls. You named three girls who could win: Rika Kihira, the Japanese girl, who has a 3A – she even has a pretty good success rate in practice – then Trusova, the youngest of the field – actually the youngest winner ever of a JGP – who goes into the Final as the first seed, and Alyona Kostornaya – who was already quite known to those who follow the Russian juniors field – who wasn’t even meant to participate at first, but was able to exploit the opportunity she was given. She won her first JGP and almost won in Egna.
Let’s talk about the differences between them – maybe even by comparing them to the others and the Korean girls you mentioned earlier. I’ll play the devil’s advocate: Trusova and Kostornaya have something more than the others, as their programs are full of one-footed skating and transitions that might make a difference when it comes to PCS.
(A): In my opinion, Kostornaya, showed us she has – in the SP more than the FP, and transitions and complexity aside – the personality that others, like Samodurova, still lack. Samodurova’s skating is a bit more basic and juniorish. It still lacks transitions, even though she’s quite elegant, I must say that. Her movements lack the kind of quality that comes with being able to perform to the music, which is usually the weakest point of these girls, for obvious reasons; but I think that Kostornaya and Kihira already have the maturity to give a good interpretation and performance, which is something that Nana Araki doesn’t have yet for example.
(M): Kostornaya has a great 2A, which is quite a difficult jump for most of the new generation of Russian girls. If we take in consideration all the girls born after the second semester of 1996, the only ones with a great 2A are Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva. All the others have always struggled with this element. Kostornaya has something more than them when it comes to the 2A – among the others, maybe Tsurskaya is the best one, but girls like Radionova, Pogorilaya and Medvedeva herself, have always had problems with it. Liptniskaya had a decent 2A, in fact she used to do it in combo, as she planned two 2A3T.
(A): True but, forgive my wording here, it was an ugly 2A in terms of technique. It wasn’t very high, but had enough speed.
(M): Let’s say it had enough flow to make a combo.
(A): Yes, that’s true.
(M): She dominated the junior field with that combo and with amazing scores back then. The fact that she changed it when she became a senior probably penalized her a bit, but that’s another matter. Anyway, Kostornaya has a great 2A; we’re talking about a girl who used to do a 3A in harness in training.
(A): Yes, well she obviously has more quality on the Axel. A jump that, on the contrary, the Japanese girls can execute with great quality. In general, even if you put aside the fact that many Japanese girls have done a 3A before, there have always been many Japanese ladies with a great Axel.
(M): Although Kostornaya has a problem: her 3Lz doesn’t have a clear outside edge. She may receive a wrong edge call that would put her at disadvantage, because in the end, all these girls can complete 2A and 7 triples, so it’s GOE that makes a difference. At that point, it’s obvious that if you do 2 3Lz and lose about 2.5 points in terms of GOE when compared to the others, it’s quite difficult to fill that gap. That’s the reason why she lost in Egna: then, of course, we could discuss a lot about these calls, but this might be a problem for Alyona.
(A): Yes, there was even an underrotated jump that probably held her back in Egna – as you recall, she lost to Samodurova by a narrow margin. Though she wasn’t the only one who had some problems with Flip or Lutz edges – even Samodurova got an unclear edge call on one of her Flips, and she even did two – so quite a lot will depend on the technical panel in the Final.
(M): So, Kostornaya has problems with her Lutz edge. Panenkova has problems with the Flip – looking at it, she doesn’t have a clear inside edge, but by changing the entry, she has made some progress with it. Trusova shouldn’t have problems with toe jumps, and she would have an advantage with the 4S. Kihira has a 3A, but isn’t as consistent – she hasn’t skated clean yet; it’s obvious that a mistake on the 3A would affect her, as it is a jump that requires a lot of mental and physical strength. See what used to happen to Asada. In the end, both of them (Kihira and Trusova) take some risks with a jump that might also hinder them. Tarakanova has always had consistency issues: she might skate clean and win – she is the former Russian novice champion, a title that isn’t easy to win – but we’re also used to seeing her bomb programs – we’ve seen free programs that barely reached 95-100 points. With that kind of FP, she wouldn’t even reach the podium in a JGPF. I think Samodurova is weaker than the others, but in the end, she almost got the same PCS as Kihira and Kostornaya in the SP in Egna.
(A): Which is debatable, but has to be taken into account. Although Samodurova has been quite consistent, if they all skate clean, Kostornaya, Kihira and Trusova have something more than the others, but consistency rewarded Samodurova, who is the second seed for the Final.
(M): Let’s not forget Tarakanova though, especially since the SP has the Lutz as the solo jump. That’s where she makes the difference. And in the free, she has two 3Lz: if she does it well, she should receive +2 from all the judges. Tarakanova is the kind of girl who might make you wonder about a possible 4Lz in the ladies’ field, because of the height and distance she gets. And she’s the only one that comes to mind, Polina Tsurskaya aside.
The competition is quite open. There’s still a couple of months to go. And I want to recall something we’ve already mentioned before: let’s go back to the JGPF won by Medvedeva, so three years ago. It wasn’t Medvedeva who had caught our eye during the JGP, but her teammate, Serafima Sakhanovich, who had reached amazing scores. She was the favourite over Medvedeva, also because she didn’t get a wrong edge call for her 3Lz. We talked about how Medvedeva didn’t stand a chance, and how could she, when Sakhanovich was so superior when it came to her skating – she was incredibly talented. Two months passed, and Medvedeva won the Final. Many things can change during these two months: you could be in better physical condition, you could have improved some details, made the programs more complex, etc. Medvedeva, who has always worked extremely hard, surprisingly managed to win the Final. And after that, Sakhanovich wasn’t able to keep up with her.
(A): She almost disappeared, as a matter of fact.
(M): We’re talking about very young girls. What happened to Sakhanovich throughout that season? Her body changed. Especially her upper body, which was the main reason she struggled to complete her programs, with all the jumps in the second half, and she started to lose quality.
These girls are 13-15 yo. The oldest girl in the Final is Kihira – I don’t remember whether Kihira is older than Samodurova, but they’re the oldest. So things can change – yes, Samodurova was born nine days after Kihira; they’re both 15. Some of the others are 13 years old. At this age, things can change quickly.
(A): Yes, nothing is certain in the JGP. The competition will be very open, but these girls have the potential to reach very high scores for sure.
(M): Five out of six could reach 200 points. I don’t want to be harsh towards Samodurova, but I don’t see her reaching 200 points. She won two GPs, but you can see she isn’t as great as the others.
(A): Yes, if they all skate clean, she should end up behind them.
(M): Many people were expecting the Korean girls to make a splash, us included. We will probably have to wait another year, because Lim, Kim and You didn’t manage to reach the Final. Lim will be the third substitute. Many are wondering what the Koreans lack at the moment. The topic is quite complex: if You can overcome this phase (t/n referring to puberty), she will be able to compete with the Russian and the Japanese girls. The others are following a different route and, in my opinion, if they keep it up, they might become skaters like Park or Choi: skaters who might end up in the top 10 at Worlds, but that won’t go anywhere near the podium.
(A): Well, we’ll see what they will choose to do; it depends on the federation, and on them too, as it might require making some drastic changes [in terms of life choices]. You Young has been showing her amazing potential for a while now; she’s always stood out for her programs, which were already quite complex, and her intricate skating. She’s growing, so this is a delicate phase, but it’s clear that she has raw talent.
There are others with good potential. As I said, I liked Lim Eunsoo throughout this JGP. She’s already shown some good things, and she seems to have grown quite a bit already. She has beautiful lines, she’s elegant, but she definitely needs more complex programs.
(M): Although we don’t have to take for granted that more intricate programs will lead to better quality, when it comes to jumps, they don’t make them more consistent. It’s one thing to do a program with 2 2A and 7 triples with long set ups, while adding transitions is another. At the junior level, you can get away with it on PCS, see Samodurova’s case, but when you become a senior, you pay the price, compared to the others. And you can’t make up for a huge difference on PCS with TES, that won’t be much higher than the others.
(A): Yes, we’ll see. Anyway, even if they didn’t reach the Final, they showed interesting things – more than a couple of them ended up in the top 15 of the JGP standings. We’ll see if they will be able to improve; You Young seems the most likely to do so, although Lim Eunsoo got better results this time around.
(M): Why are we saying that You might have something more than the others, looking at the future? She moved to Toronto and started working with Brian Orser’s team, the same team that brought Kim to the Olympic title in 2009-2010 and then Yuzuru Hanyu, in 2014. It’s a team that immediately understood how the new scoring system worked, that’s how you can make the difference through PCS: see Fernandez’s case. Fernandez is no Hanyu, in terms of skating skills, so they clearly know how to work to raise the PCS.
(A): Or Daleman.
(M): Yes, but even Fernandez’s case is impressive. If you didn’t know Hanyu, Chan, Fernandez, Uno, Chen and Boyang, and you saw them skate with a hood on their heads, you’d choose Hanyu and Chan. You wouldn’t even look at the others. It’s the same thing we were saying about the Russian ladies: if you saw Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, Pogorilaya, Liptniskaya, Radionova and Medvedeva skate, without knowing who they were, you’d choose Sotnikova. Immediately. The fact that Fernandez is getting almost the same PCS as Hanyu, says a lot about Orser’s school’s quality. Then, some people might complain about these scores, but in the end Fernandez has been able to get more than 90 PCS in the FP quite easily.The others will have to follow You, if they want to get to that level.
(A): Yes, although it’s obvious that they have done a good job in Korea, as there are many competitive young ladies.
(M): Now, regarding the Italians. I think we saw interesting things in Egna; there are some interesting girls for the future – I mean, Kostner can’t keep being responsible for the entire Italian team. She will be 31 at the Olympics, and there won’t be many girls over 25 yo there. Rodeghiero, who might be at the Olympics, could actually turn out to be the second eldest lady after her. We’ve seen girls with different qualities; we quite liked Lara Naki Gutmann.
(A): Yes, Lara Naki has very good fluidity, she’s made some technical progress and she has also shown to have good complexity when it comes to her skating. She’s always had quite a lot of transitions – as we said earlier – and complex programs. She stood out in such a deep field.
(M): Regarding Lara Naki, her biggest improvement was the 3-3 combo.
(A): Yes, she did 3SLo3S, but getting 3T3T combo was important, especially for the SP. She’s improving a lot, especially her technical content, which is the most important thing, because she already had solid basics. The 3T3T was very important for the SP, and she managed to do 3SLo3S, even though the second Salchow was called underrotated, so she’s trying more than one combo with two triples. I’d say she did quite well, she even tried a 3Lo, though she didn’t manage to execute it perfectly.
(M): Elisabetta Leccardi is the girl who got better results throughout the JGP. Lucrezia Beccari also did very well – they’re the ones who got the best scores. We must say that Leccardi has very ambitious programs, so if she manages to skate them clean, what kind of scores can she get? She’s age eligible for the Olympics. Does she have a chance?
(A): Yes, Leccardi has difficult programs. She still makes lots of mistakes, but it’s understandable, because the planned content is great: 3-3 in the SP, 2A3T in the FP. She still needs to improve the quality of her jumps – she got some underrotation calls, especially in the second half of the program when she’s more tired. And she’s also a skater who could get good scores for PCS, she has less complex programs in terms of transitions, if compared to Lara Naki, but she’s better in terms of interpretation. She’s quite elegant; she already stood out at the Junior Worlds last year, thanks to that. She’s still very young, but I believe she has a chance, especially if she becomes more consistent. We’ll see at Nationals.
(M): Let’s not forget that there are other girls who did well in a recent competition, at the Coup de Nice. We had Lucrezia Beccari there and Alessia Tornaghi too, who got a medal. They’re both very promising, they have good technical content. Then of course, it depends on their physical conditions, Beccari looked better at the start of the season, now Tornaghi is in better shape. I think both could do well in the JGP next season, while Leccardi will probably start competing as a senior – even though she could still compete among juniors. Maybe we’ll talk about age eligibility later.
I’d say we have a pretty good ladies’ field at the moment. Only Kostner – who got a medal at a JGPF and won a JGP – and Berton got better results before.
(A): Yes the junior ladies’ field is getting deeper and deeper. Russia and Japan aside, we’re not that far from US, when it comes to results.
(M): I’ll just say this – and I am ready to discuss it thoroughly with everyone – if Gutmann, Beccari, Leccardi and Tornaghi had been called Ma, Harrell – tell me another couple of names here – they would have gotten 2-3 more points in the SP, and at least 5 more in the FP, when it comes to PCS. If someone wants to deny it, feel free to contact me, we can discuss it.
(A): I think we have 5-6 promising girls, let’s hope we can keep working with them.
(M): 20,72: it’s Lara Naki Gutmann’s score on PCS in the SP. I invite you to look at the scores of those who skated before her and at the quality of their programs. Maybe it was due to the group she was in – but then, in the JGP the skating order is based on the draw, so you can see the best girls even in the early groups. It’s obvious that reputation can count, but I don’t see that much of a difference between them and the US ladies – some of them are interesting, some have ok jumps… but they’re no phenoms.
(A): Yes exactly. And in Europe, Russia aside, we have a better field than France, Germany etc. I think we can be satisfied at the moment; then of course we need to improve, because the first 5-6 girls are unbeatable now – well Leccardi ended up 7th after the SP, so…
(M): Which was the best result she could have gotten, even though she beat one of the Korean girls in the SP. And she was behind an interesting US girl – of course, since she’s interesting the US federation sent her only to the last JGP. Figure skating is going in a different direction according to them – towards underrotated jumps probably, see Wagner, Chen etc. Which is fine with a certain type of panel – and that’s how you get a silver medal in Boston by skating the best programs of your career – but if you find the kind of panel that actually calls underrotations, see Shin Amano, you don’t end up in the top 10. Or if you do, it’s because you get 70 PCS.
I hear a lot of complaints from the US, things like “the Russian girls don’t have a step before their solo jump” – and we’ll talk about this sometime - but I don’t see how the US girls are doing something more than Medvedeva or Zagitova. I don’t see it. It’s the same kind of criticism we’ve heard from Brown’s coach towards those who can do a quad – while her pupil can’t. So, she says that nobody has steps into the solo jump. Can we talk about Hanyu’s 4Lo?
(A): It’s clear that she’s right about some of those quads – and we always mention that when it happens, because there are many quads with no step, even in Russia for example – but if you look at the top men, like Hanyu, Fernandez, etc, you can definitely see that they have a step into the solo jump. Even after it to be honest.
(M): We even got a question about this: “I haven’t seen anyone with steps or connections into a quad.” These are Brown’s coach words. I’d invite her to come with me, hand in hand, to see Yuzuru Hanyu’s entry into his jumps. Not only the solo jump, but also his other jumping passes. Because we can even see it in his 4T3T combo.
(A): Hanyu, Uno Shoma – he has different entries for his 4T – and we could mention Fernandez.
(M): I really can’t stand this approach to be honest. If your athletes can’t execute certain technical elements, or if your ladies’ field can’t keep up with the others it’s still nonsense to demonize the others. “That’s not skating”, “there’s no step before the solo jump”, “Tutberidze’s athletes have bad skating skills, they all do the same thing”: it’s not like that.
(A): This kind of attitude doesn’t bring you anywhere too. It would be better to try to understand the situation and try to keep up with the others. I think they could do it, they certainly don’t lack rinks, athletes nor good coaches. There are good coaches, and from many different schools: there are Russian coaches, and good US and NA teams too.
(M): Yes, although - and then we’ll change topic - at the moment I see many coaches from different countries.
(A): Yes, less US coaches you mean.
(M): Well, if there are Australian coaches who know figure skating better than the US ones… that says something [t/n meaning if the USA needs to import Australian coaches to cover the lack of coaches of their own]. Let me tell you that I would never let Carroll be my daughter’s coach, even if he was the last possibility. Never. See Kostner. Because Kostner was at her worst in 2009-2010. And there are many examples of this.
Then, there are teams who work well in the US, maybe they are demonized as well because I think that the most famous coaches in the US have all an obsolete view of skating. Just to be clear: we’re not in the same era as when Lysacek won the Olympic gold in 2010. These are the times in which Gracie Gold, an amazing talent, won’t win anything in her career. And I doubt we’ll see her again inside the rink.
(A): Yes it’s difficult considering what we’ve heard lately…the fact that she withdrew from the GPs to take better care of herself. It had become clear that she was having a difficult moment.
(M): Yes, this might even be it for her. We got a question about this, I hope this answered it.
Let’s talk about the men’s field now. Matteo Rizzo made history, as he became the first Italian men to win a JGP. To give you an idea of what he did: in 21 years, no Italian man had ever won a JGP. Zelenka had won a silver medal before. We always talk about the ladies’ field’s amazing quality, but it’s not like men are bad, most of the best skaters had to compete in the JGP in one way or the other: see Hanyu, Uno, Jin Boyang, etc.
What I am wondering is: should we be happy that he won, or should we regret that he didn’t reach the Final. Matteo won in Egna, with 230 points: he had a perfect SP, but he could have done an even better FP, because one of his planned triples became a double. He popped a 3S into a 2S, a jump that usually doesn’t give him any problems – see Lombardia Trophy’s FP. Let’s add that jump and the choreo sequence, and he could have reached the national record already, which is around 237-238 by Righini. If we add 3.5 points from the choreo sequence, and another 3.5 points of the 3S, and that he could reach higher PCS, then Matteo could already break the national record. Considering that at the JGPF scores are usually higher, he could have reached 235-240 points there, without the choreo sequence. With that score you could even win, especially this year, since there are no phenoms in the Final; and there are even skaters he has already defeated before, see Torgashev. The most solid man is probably the Russian boy from Tutberidze’s school, Alexei Erokhov, who has two quads.
So, I was thinking: you could be there with the others in the SP: 3A, 3Lz, 3F3T combo – and Matteo is very solid on these jumps. If all skated clean, quality makes the difference, along with PCS. Among those who qualified for the Final, nobody has outstanding skills, and Matteo – who comes from a family of ice dancers – has an advantage on that. And he will grow even more. That means he could have ended up first or second in the SP and that he could have skated second to last in the FP. He would have seen the others before him fall (t/n literally ‘kill themselves’) on their quads – because this is what usually happens in the JGPF for men – and at that point, he could have done what he did in Egna: he knew what the others had done and he knew that he could win even without a perfect skate. And there he was able to do his best in the FP, one triple aside – actually he probably didn’t do it on purpose in order to avoid risks. So maybe we should regret not seeing him in the Final, because he could have even won the Final, and I’m not exaggerating.
(A): Yes, considering what he has done so far, he could have reached the Final. It wouldn’t have been easy to win, because there are a couple of skaters with a solid quad or two, but it wouldn’t have been impossible to win a medal. With some luck, he could have even won, but anyway, reaching the podium wouldn’t have been impossible. In Poland, he was second after the SP, behind Erokhov only, then he sadly had a bad FP – which can happen, he had already competed a lot before then – but he could have really reached the Final. I mean, in Poland, he showed to have the potential to be in the top 3, and then he won in Egna, with some margin.
(M): Many asked me what he should have done in Poland in order to reach the Final; well, substantially, he only needed to finish 5th instead of 6th.
(A): Yes that would have been enough. He only needed a couple of points more than that.
(M): Yes, it’s a pity, because he had a chance there. Many asked me what are the age requirements to compete in juniors, too, since Matteo competed both in the JGP and the Nebelhorn Trophy, which is a senior event. Let’s explain why he could do that.
To compete in juniors, a skater competing in singles must fulfill two requirements: first, they must have reached the age of 13 before the July 1st preceding the event; second, they mustn’t have reached the age of 19 before the July 1st preceding the event.
So, theoretically, a skater could compete in juniors for six seasons, but it rarely happens within major federations because they have many high level athletes and the turnover is high.
Matteo was lucky enough to be able to compete in the JGP until 19, and as I see it, if a male skater can get more than 200 points, then allowing him to take part in the JGP is the right decision, even if he’s at his last eligible season in juniors.
On the other hand, having an 18 year-old skater who can’t reach 170 points in the JGP is definitely a bad decision, because it means you’re only pleasing a coach, sending their athlete to a competition he wouldn’t normally have the chance to take part in, without any consideration of your field.
So, summing up, from 13 until 18 years old, you can compete in juniors. Once you turn 15, you can start competing in seniors too.
The crucial day is always July 1st and the explanation is easy: figure skating season begins in August and usually ends in April, so setting age eligibility limit on July 1st definitely makes more sense than January 1st, just to give an example.
(A): Yes it’s an appropriate date because it fits the timing of the figure skating season really well.
Then, of course, there are some extreme cases like Sotnikova’s - who was born exactly on July 1st and therefore kind of “lost” a season in seniors.
(M): To close the topic on juniors, predictions on the Final.
In Men’s, I think Erokhov is probably the most consistent, but Krasnozhon might have something more especially if he lands 4Lo.
It’s not really a competition I’m looking forward though, I wouldn’t buy a ticket to see it.
In Ice Dance, I’d go with Carreira/Ponomarenko. They won two events, and even though they’re among the younger ones, they already showed they have some great qualities.
Nevertheless, the gap with other Russian teams isn’t that big.
As for the Pairs, well that’s really unpredictable. The Australians have surely more experience and that will help a lot, there are some interesting Russian pairs too, but it’s really hard to tell. I’d probably still go with the Australians, even if there isn’t a huge gap in terms of points between them and the rest of the competition.
Anyhow, the Junior Ladies’ event will be the real deal, the rest will be more like ‘side dishes.’
(A): I’ll just add that it will be a real pity not to see Kostiukovich/Ialin at the GPF. They were able to perform a quad twist which is absolutely awesome for a junior pair, but unfortunately, they totally bombed the competition in Poland and blew their chance.
Part 2: Senior Grand Prix
Preview of first Event, Rostelecom Cup.
(H): Let’s move on to our next topic: the start of the Grand Prix. The first event will be Rostelecom Cup in Moscow, and it will be a high-level event as there will be two reigning world champions there: Yuzuru Hanyu and Evgenia Medvedeva.
Before we start discussing about that though, I’d take this opportunity to answer one of our listeners who is asking how the GP assignments work, if you agree.
(M): Very complicated topic, I’ll try to be as clear as possible.
The competition that defines the seeded skaters is Worlds, so in our case, last World Championships in Helsinki. Skaters who placed 1 - 6 in each discipline are considered seeded skaters and each one can participate in two events.
Let’s take the Ladies’ as an example: based on last year’s results, Mevedeva is seed #1, Osmond is seed #2, Daleman #3, Chen #4, Mihara #5, and Kostner #6.
Skaters who placed 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, can’t take part in the same event; same with skaters placed from 4 to 6, they can’t be at the same event. Obviously, this means that there will be two seeded skaters at each event.
The rules say that skaters are assigned at each event by a draw, but this is true only in some cases. What happens in reality is that each federation (through a representative) chooses the skaters for their event.
So, when the ISU Council meets, the representatives will go through the seeded skaters and each federation can choose who to invite to their GP. Whenever there is disagreement or a federation doesn’t have a skater from their country to pick among the seeded skaters, there will be a draw. As you can see, it’s a designation after all, guided by a simple principle: “home athletes” are more likely to attract more people and therefore sell more tickets.
This year though, there was obviously a particular design to have all the world champions competing at NHK - I don’t believe it was a random draw that decided that.
Of course, there is a particular attention with seeded skaters, as they try to avoid back-to-back events in different continents for them.
Let’s go back to Japan for a moment, why didn’t they pick Mihara from the seeded skaters? Very simple, because they can have their National Champion at NHK, Satoko Miyahara, who didn’t take part at last year’s Worlds, but can benefit from the “comeback skater” status and get two assignments.
Moving on, skaters who placed 7 - 12 at the last World Championship are guaranteed two events as well. The criterion here is the same: creating balanced yet strong fields that will guarantee good ticket sales for each federation.
Then, skaters in the top 24 of the ISU World Standings and skaters with the top-24 2016-2017 season’s best scores, who aren’t in the top 24 of the ISU World Standing, are guaranteed one event, in some cases they might get two.
World Junior medallists and winners of the JGPF are usually granted two events as well - in case they decide to take part in the senior Grand Prix of course.
Lastly, we shall highlight that when deciding the entries, there is particular attention to the costs: usually, if a coach has more than one skater, they usually try to schedule them to the same event, so that the ISU and the Organizing Committee can save money, covering the expenses of just one coaching team.
As you can see, it’s a pretty complicated system, but keep in mind that each hosting federation can express their preferences, and the ultimate goal is always the same: selling tickets. So the more well known and stronger the skaters, the higher the chances of a sold-out event.
Of course, the number of entries is limited, and the risk of an extreme entry list is always there - see this year’s Pairs event at Skate Canada for example.
(A): Yes, creating balanced events is always very difficult and each year there are some variables that can really destabilize the system. Let’s remember Virtue/Moir’s case last year: they were “comeback skaters” and they really shook the system. A bit like Miyahara this year.
(M): Exactly. Let’s remember that she’s coming back from an injury, so what was JSF’s reasoning here? They decided to keep a spot for her as a “comeback skater” at NHK, since it’s later in the season and the chances of her being fully recovered in time are higher, and send Mihara, who already had big achievements last season, abroad, hoping she will qualify for GPF. It’s a rightful decision in my opinion.
Alright, let’s move on and talk about the first Grand Prix of the season, the Rostelecom Cup.
This year the GP starts with the Russian event and the competition will be great right from the start since there will be two reigning world champions there: Evgenia Medvedeva, born and raised in Moscow, and Yuzuru Hanyu, who has a particular bond with Russia and this city in particular, since he won his first Grand Prix right in Moscow in 2011. He was still a baby back then, he had to win that event to qualify for the GPF, and he made it.
Obviously, all eyes will be on them. There’s this interesting thing about Hanyu though, he has won 4 Grand Prix Finals back-to-back - something incredible, only Davis/White did better - but you know how many Grand Prix he has won so far? Just four! It’s almost an aberration!
What kind of Hanyu will we see in Moscow, Angelo?
(A): Hard to say. Judging from what we’ve seen so far, I’d say he has no problem on the short program, since he managed to score another World Record with it already.; free program looks more like a work in progress, in my opinion.
I’d say the strategy on the free program looks undecided yet, assuming that the one for the short program is the one he showed at Autumn Classic, and most likely it’s not.
So I’d say he is good on the short program already, and even if he makes mistakes sometimes he’s still the man to beat in this segment. Free program might give him a little more trouble at this time of the year.
(M): Here’s something interesting, Angelo. Yuzuru Hanyu has always only won the last GP event so far, apart from the Final of course.
As I was saying, he won the last event in 2011 in Moscow, and he won the NHK Trophy for three times overall. This year, he will compete in the Rostelecom Cup and the NHK Trophy, so they’re both competitions he has already won in his career.
It looks like he won’t go for the same layout as the one shown at Autumn Classic in the short program. So he’ll have 4Lo instead of 4S as the jump preceded by steps or choreographic movement. Let’s explain the difference here, between steps and choreographic movement.”
(A): Basically they’re broadening the choices for skaters, with this new definition.
The old rule used to say “Jump immediately preceded by steps”, so the choice was theoretically limited to steps only. This new rule broadens the concept a little bit, so, for example, you could use a spiral or a spread eagle as an entry to the jump, maybe even mixing it with steps too.
It’s what Hanyu does, since he doesn’t only have a spread eagle into his quads but he has steps too. Also, his entry to the 4Lo in the short program is exactly the same of his 4S in the “old version” of his short, there’s no difference construction wise, and this is surely an advantage.
(M): I was smiling while you were talking about this rule, because I was thinking about Alyona Kostornaya and her entry on the 3Lz in her short program. It’s not just a jump preceded by steps or comparable choreographic movements, it’s a jump preceded by a step sequence!
That’s to say, there are athletes who don’t just put a step in before their jumps and Yuzuru is one of those. Moreover, he also has steps after the jump.”
(A): No doubt. He has a spread eagle even after his 4Lo/4S. The one before the jump is on an outside edge and the one after is on an inside edge, showing he has indeed great mastery of many skating movements.
(M): And this is because you don’t achieve a World Record with your base value only, it’s the GOE that makes the difference, because when you receive unanimous +3 on your jumps in a short program, you get 9 points more on the TES. It’s like having another 3A with a positive GOE!
It’s the quality of the elements that makes the difference, and Hanyu’s skating is precisely designed to get the highest grade of execution on each technical element.
This is why he has steps preceding other jumping passes as well, and they’re arguably even more difficult than the one he puts before his solo quad. Think about the entry to the triple Axel for instance.
(A): That’s the reason why he’s almost untouchable in a short program.
Then of course, he can make mistakes as well, he has bombed short programs in the past, but when he’s clean, his short programs are the most competitive out there.
(M): He should have recovered from a little injury he had to his right knee.
We said that he will probably go for 4Lo as opening jump in the short program, then the rest should be the same as at Autumn Classic: 3A in the second half followed by 4T+3T, which has become pretty solid lately.
In the free program, I’d say he’ll go for the original layout he had planned for Montreal [t/n - that he couldn’t perform due to injury]: 4Lz as opening jump and 4Lo right after.
Very demanding, especially because he has a short setup for both of them and this takes a lot of energy. Clearly, if he manages to land the first two jumps and keep his focus until the end, we may have something outstanding.
Obviously, he has yet to land a 4Lz in competition - he has yet to try one to be precise - but even with mistakes, he’s still the undoubted favorite of the men’s event.
Even if he does have some competition there as the number one rival there is ‘The Lord Of Quads’ Nathan Chen, the only man in the history of figure skating to have landed 5 different quads in international competitions - and 5 it will be, since 4A is impossible for him, he has trouble with the triple Axel already. Nevertheless, hats off to him really.
(A): Oh yes, well to be honest, I think 4A will still be off-limits for everybody for quite some time.
(M): So, clean Nathan Chen is a nasty rival for everyone, Hanyu included. Let’s not forget that he defeated Hanyu once, at last year’s Four Continents Championships, and Hanyu skated a great free program there.
Obviously, clean program vs clean program, it’s Hanyu who still holds an edge over Chen, especially on the GOE. On the other hand, Chen has higher base value in both short and free programs.
(A): Yes of course, since he has 4F and 4Lz both in his short program. I must say the quality on these jumps - on toe pick jumps generally, so Lutz, Flip and Toe Loop - is pretty decent, while his edge jumps are surely a bit more difficult for him.
(M): A lot will depend on what he decides to do in this competition, though. I don’t think he will go for all the quads he planned, even because his second event will be Skate America, the last of the six GPs, so he has a lot of time ahead [t/n - to adjust his condition and bring all the quads he plans in competition].
Let’s have a look at the complete entry list: we have Nam Nguyen, who can jump two types of quads, even in the short program; Moris Kvitelashvili, coached by Tutberidze, with 4T and 4S as well; Daniel Samohin from Israel, who won Junior Worlds thanks to his two different quads - he’s working on the third one to be honest, 4Lo, but I don’t think he’s in the best condition; then we have Denis Ten, who returns to Moscow where he grew as a skater, coached by Tatiana Tarasova at that time…
(H): Sorry to interrupt you Max, but speaking of Denis Ten, we have this question from a friend of ours who is concerned about his fragile ankles and asks, “If you were his coach, how would you build a program that allows him to both receive good scores and preserve his body from injuries?”
(M): We’re talking about a high-profile skater here: he’s a Four Continents Champion, a World and Olympic medalist. But he’s always struggled in the first half of the season, it’s his trademark and then he has some physical issues as well.
What would I do with him? Well this may be his last season, probably he might have considered going on had Almaty been selected to host the Olympic Games in 2022, but since Beijing won, I think this is going to be his last season.
For sure I would try to preserve him physically and try to bring him to the Olympics in a good physical condition. In that case, with two quads and the qualities he has on spins and other elements of skating, he could be in the running for a medal, why not?
(A): Indeed. Honestly, if I were his coach, I’m not sure I’d let him participate in the Grand Prix altogether, since he has always struggled so much in the first half of the season.
Maybe I’d have him participate in less demanding and less “famous” competitions like a Challenger Series event, where he could find his pace with no rush and simplified programs so to build up his condition slowly, in order to arrive at his best by February.
(M): And taking part in a Grand Prix, you can’t afford to water down your content, so the risk of injury is even higher. And this, too, happened to Ten in the past.
Overall, right now there are six male skaters who are highly superior to the rest of the competition: Hanyu, Fernandez, Chan - three multiple world champions - Jin, Uno and Chen.
Healthy Denis Ten could be the dark horse, but he needs another quad other than the Toe Loop. With a second quad, he’d equal Fernandez’s tech content and, at that point, the discussion on who’s the best among the two could be quite animated. Fernandez is maybe more consistent, but clean, healthy Denis Ten can be a nasty rival.
Going back to our entry list, we have Deniss Vasiljevs and we’ll see if and how he has improved his technical content. He has unparalleled flow - reminds me a lot of Patrick Chan in this - he has great difficult spins, he should have made his 3A more consistent, but we have yet to see a quad from him.
(A): With a quad, he could be competitive and he could fight for a medal at the European Championships, for sure. Without a quad, you can’t be competitive, even in a Grand Prix, because there are more coming – you haven’t mentioned all of them.
(M): Indeed, go on with the Russians, please!
(A): Well we have Aliev, Kolyada and Lazukin.
Kolyada will go for 4Lz, let’s hope he can land it, he came close several times already. But he has an awesome 4T and one of the best triple Axels out there.
Aliev has some great qualities as well. He’s young and he’s debuting in the senior Grand Prix, but he has all it takes to do well.
(M): Then we have Lazukin, who is not only Elizaveta Tuktamysheva’s boyfriend, he’s also the best quad jumper among Mishin’s students. He can jump three different quads in training, so let’s not underestimate him.
We talked about Nathan Chen, who is Hanyu’s main rival here. There will be Grant Hochstein from the USA as well, who has always done pretty well in the Grand Prix.
And lastly we have another Moscow native, Misha Ge, someone who always attracts a lot of audience.
(A): Oh yes, he’s well beloved by the audience. He has a bright future ahead as a choreographer, well to be fair, he did choreograph for many skaters this season already.
(M): So, my prediction for the men’s event would be: Hanyu, Chen, Kolyada - if he manages to stay on his feet. His programs are really ambitious, his intention is to go for three different quads.
He’s been trying 4Lz since last season already, even though he fell a lot on it - yet his falls are somewhat gracious, almost -2 GOE worthy, not -3. He has already succeeded in landing 4T, and this jump is of the utmost quality when cleanly executed; the third quad is the Salchow.
Let’s see, if he’s clean, I think he’s the best candidate for bronze, but the battle for bronze might involve almost all the skaters here.”
(A): Yeah, but you have to consider their physical condition as well. Healthy Ten could be in for bronze too, but as we said, he’s rarely in good shape by this time of the year.
Moris Kvitelashvili is a potential candidate for bronze as well; Samohin might be, too, if he lands his jumps.
(M): All those skaters we mentioned have a strong bond with Russia: Kvitelashvili is coached by Tutberidze; Samohin has Russian roots; Denis Ten grew up as a skater in Moscow; Deniss Vasiljevs used to train in Sochi under Urmanov; Misha Ge was born in Moscow; lastly, Yuzuru Hanyu, who won the first Grand Prix of his career in Moscow [t/n: here Max totally forgot that Yuzu won Olys in Sochi lol].
The men’s event will be really interesting, but the ladies will be very intriguing too, as we will see Evgenia Medvedeva, who is going through some changes in her strategies, and Carolina Kostner.
(A): Yeah, for sure, Carolina’s presence will attract many Italian figure skating fans, even though she won’t be in top shape yet, probably.
Nevertheless, it will be a good chance for her to face some of the strongest skaters of the current Ladies’ field.
You mentioned Medvedeva, the undoubted favourite, but it will be interesting to see how Carolina will deal with Radionova as well, not to mention the Japanese ladies we will see here: Higuchi and Sakamoto.
(M): Particularly Higuchi, who came close to beating Zagitova at Lombardia Trophy. They both scored nearly 220 points - keep in mind that only three skaters in history went beyond that barrier: Yuna Kim, Adelina Sotnikova and Evgenia Medvedeva - so it’s a really high score we’re talking about. I have little doubt Zagitova can manage to reach that score in her next event, to be honest.
We’ll see about Higuchi, she’s a talented skater, but her layouts and programs construction often leave us quite speechless, right? Especially for that triple Flip, even though it got a little bit better.
(A): Indeed, she has innate talent and so much quality on every aspect of skating, it’s really sad seeing her struggle because of those questionable layouts.
Sure, sometimes she makes mistake on her own, but when she skates clean, she has almost no rivals.
(M): In my opinion, given the entries, if Kostner skates a clean short, she’ll be behind Medvedeva only.
In the free program, she might struggle a bit more, because there are many skaters who has shown good consistency already: Higuchi, Sakamoto - Kaori Sakamoto comes from juniors, this is her first year in seniors. She didn’t skate her best at her senior debut, but she has great potential. I remember you noticed her while she was still a kid. Right, Angelo?
(A): Yes, in a JGP many years ago… she was so young but you could see she had nice qualities, great flow, and good technique.
(M): Then we have Mirai Nagasu, with planned 3A’s in both the short and the free. Pay attention because she can be a tough rival if she manages to land them.
She’s getting better on that jump, I’ve seen videos from her training sessions and she’s not far from completing the rotations.
Of course, the problem here is always the same: it’s a highly demanding jump, both physically and mentally. If you bomb it and fall, then keeping the focus throughout the rest of your program becomes really difficult.
Just look at Asada, had she left it aside in some moments of her career, she would’ve achieved even bigger results.
(A): Indeed, there were moments in which she really struggled with that jump, and had she given up on it, her skating wouldn’t have suffered for sure.
(M): Moving on, we have Tursynbaeva who skates for Kazakhstan, trains under Brian Orser in Canada, but is in fact Russian and she started her skating career right in Moscow.
She worked with both Tutberidze and Buyanova, and not many skaters have had this opportunity, but it didn’t work out well with either of them so she moved to Toronto.
Tursynbaeva is one of those skaters working on a quad: she has landed 4S several times in practice already. Should she manage to put it in her free, she could become a tough rival for almost everyone but Medvedeva.
(A): Indeed, that could be her weapon to make that final step and be competitive with top skaters. She improved a lot on her skating, that use to be her weakest point. She has nice programs too.
She lacks a bit of quality in her jumps, she can’t make a difference with the GOEs so that’s where she loses to other skaters. But you know, we’re at the beginning of the season and many top skaters might not be in top shape yet, so if she lands her jumps, she can beat those who have more quality than her, in my opinion.
(M): Back to Medvedeva, in recent news, she has decided to ditch the long program that Ilia Averbukh had choreographed for her - it seems he didn’t take it very well - and use her Anna Karenina exhibition program, choreographed by Daniil Gleykhengauz, as her free program for the Olympic season.
Judging from what we’ve seen in the events she took part in so far [t/n Nepela Trophy and Japan Open], I’d say she made the right call.
(A): Absolutely, I liked her Anna Karenina way more too. It’s nobody’s fault, of course, sometimes there are programs and choreographies that just don’t fit you as they should.
Evgenia probably felt that Anna Karenina suited her better and I have to say I totally agree with her. I find it a more interesting program.
(M): A little trivia: in her senior career so far, Evgenia Medvedeva has lost only one competition. Which one? Rostelecom Cup. Where? In Moscow. Who defeated her?
(A): Elena Radionova
(M): Correct, and Radionova will face Medvedeva at Rostelecom Cup this year as well.
Now, the best Radionova we’ve ever seen was able to reach 210 points, but we don’t know what to expect here.
Radionova was affected by physical growth quite a bit, but her biggest flaw was that she wasn’t able to improve her jump quality. She did managed to improve her skating, she got miles better on that. But her jumps still have the same quality (and flaws) they had when she was 12 years old and dominating the field.
She was literally Medvedeva’s worst nightmare as they were both born in 1999 - even though Radionova was born in January and Medvedeva in November - and they competed together in Novice, since in Russia, there are different age eligibility requirements.
In those times, Medvedeva was regularly beaten by Radionova. Then, gradually, things started to change. Radionova managed to win her second Junior World Championship and Medvedeva got third there, but from then on, Evgenia started to improve more and more.
Still, Elena Radionova is the only one, together with Polina Tsurskaya, who defeated Evgenia Medvedeva in the last three years.
(A): She’s almost Evgenia’s nemesis
(M): Well, she was for sure when they were younger, and no one could have predicted Medvedeva’s success back in those years.
Prediction about Ladies competition? First Medvedeva, we’d be nuts to say another name. Higuchi in second place, Kostner or Radionova for third place.
(A): Yes, same. I’d say Kostner or Radionova fighting for the third place, with Tursynbaeva and Nagasu as possible dark horses.
(M): We need to wait and see the technical panel’s meter of judgement. A strict panel may play in favour of Kostner - who never had problems with rotations - while being a risk for Nagasu - who keeps having underrotation issues - but also for Radionova and even Higuchi, at least on her 3Lz3T combo. At Lombardia Trophy, her combos [got no calls], but I think other panels may have marked them under. Medvedeva doesn’t have rotation problems. Tursynbaeva is not always pristine in this regard.
So the meter used to judge rotations may make a difference at Rostelecom Cup.
(A): An athlete like Mariah Bell could be advantaged with a strict panel, too, her rotations being usually full. But she hasn’t shown a consistency on the same level as the other ones.
(M): Mariah Bell who ended at 12th in last year’s Worlds, a skater who has been improving much lately, let’s not forget it. Let’s go to Pairs.
We will have an Italian Pairs competing, Valentina Marchei and Ondrej Hotarek, going after the first podium of their career in a Grand Prix Event.
(A): Looking at the entry list, it could be within their reach, but it won’t be easy.
(M): Tarasova/Morozov can reach 210 even with quite a few mistakes.
(A): And by consequence, they are quite out of reach.
(M): Stolbova/Klimov started the season poorly, but if you go and analyse their programs, you can see how there are some sections skated exceptionally well, mixed with moments in which they lose their ways. I expect them to be in good condition at CoR, and if they are in top condition, they can also score higher than Tarasova/Morozov. But in any case, it’s hard not to predict them to be in one of the first two places.
(A): Yes, those two seem the favourite couples (to win), with T/M a step above, thanks to the difficulties K/S faced in the recent months, otherwise I’d switch the order.
(M): If we look at the last Worlds and at standings for GP, the Italian couple is third.
(A): But it won’t be easy for them. For that third place, I’d put in contention: Canadian Seguin/Bilodeau, who had a very uneven season last year, but they were improving a lot and quickly before it.
(M): One too many injuries for them, and also a not-so-rewarding hunt for elements they never fully managed to own. A hunt that is penalizing them in what used to be their points of strength: clean programs, with many transitions, with a great attention to every detail. Since they started to raise the level on side-by-side jumps, they have started to lose something on everything else and, at same time, those side-by-side jumps didn’t give them the points they had hoped for. So a couple, who seemed close to giving Duhamel/Radford a run for their money, lost itself.
(A): We’ll see if they go back to program content more within their grasp – they can be in contention for a spot on the podium at COR. If they are the same as they were during the last Worlds, then the scenario changes, and a door may open for Valentina and Hotarek.
(M): Kristina Astakhova and Alexei Rogonov may be dangerous, too. At the moment they are the fourth pairs couple in Russia, in terms of quality. Russia will only have four pairs in this GPS, because between injuries, retirements, pairs splitting…
(A): It’s not the greatest of times for Russian Pairs skating.
(M): In Senior, they don’t have a huge abundance (of pairs) for their standards. In terms of quality, they have two couples who can aim for a medal at Olympics, but in terms of quantity, it’s not their best moment. Also due to some absurd choices in the juniors... but it’s not always easy to manage many skaters at same time.
So, Marchei/Hotarek have a chance to conquer that podium. For Hotarek, it wouldn’t be a first: he’s already won a GP event, with his former partner, Stefania Berton, at Skate Canada some years ago. For Marchei, it would be a nice first. If they are in top condition, they can get it done. Against the best S/B, they’d pay something on the PCS side, but they can recover the gap on TES.
The third Russian couple seem to be behind on both sides of scoring, but it’s obvious that, in the end, it the quality of execution on every element will be very important.
(A): The battle will be fought first and foremost on that aspect. Valentina and Ondrej skated amazingly well at Worlds, at the end of last season, but the goal [now] is not this GP, obviously. The goal is the Olympic Games and they have to build their season to reach that appointment at their best. This is a nice chance to get on the podium [en route to the Olympics], a result that would also give them a big boost in morale.
(M): Let’s go to Ice Dance. The Ice Dance competition promises to be high quality. We will have an Italian couple there, Guignard/Fabbri. They are trying to get their first GP medal, too, but it won’t be easy at all, considering the average level of the other participants. Top seed, the Shibutanis. We haven’t seen them yet, this season. According to some, that may have been playing it too safe. We’ll see, but my impression is that they have something big to show. We already spoke about Marina Zueva’s (political) weight. The Zueva who goes with Shibutanis at Pyeongchang is more powerful than the Zueva who went with Virtue/Moir and Davis/White both at Sochi. Because in their group, there are more couples - of course not as competitive as V/M or D/W, and to have more couples means to have more judges, we already spoken about it in a previous podcast. Shibutanis are excellent skaters, and I do believe they will have all the chances to express themselves at their best.
(A): They had a great debut in Seniors, years ago, and after some years in which they struggled more, they have finally found their own style.
[t/n: Unfortunately, due to technical issues, Angelo and Max weren’t recorded for a few minutes after this point]
(M): [...] even if Gilles/Poirer may be able to Bobrova/Soloviev a run for their money, what do you think?
(A): Potentially, yes. But they aren’t known for their consistency (in reaching levels 4) and we need to see in what condition they will be there. Personally, I find the best Gilles/Poirer superior to Bobrova/Soloviev, who aren’t one of my favourite ice dance couples, I have to be honest. They can skate at a high level, though. And having the first Grand Prix at home, I’d expect their scores to be high. We’ll see. As I said, for my personal taste, I prefer Gilles/Poirer more.
(M): Regarding Guignard/Fabbri, we need to highlight how often they defeated Stepanova/Bukin. And theoretically, getting over Stepanova/Bukin would mean fourth place. But what we expect from them [at the Rostelecom Cup] is an improvement tout-court. They have already shown good things at Lombardia, points lost for a missing element which we can consider as par for course aside. It won’t be easy to get on the podium, but they have an outside chance.
Focus also on Paersons, who have shown [t/n in juniors] to be a technically excellent couple, especially on Short Dance requirements.
(A): A very, very young couple, but we have been following them for many seasons already, so there’s a lot of curiosity in their first Senior GP. The USA keeps producing high-level Ice Dance couples, we spoke at length about the Junior Grand Prix, where the frontrunner is, again, an American couple.
(M): Pay attention also to Betina Popova and Sergey Mogzov, one of the two couples coached by Ksenia Rumiantseva - we will see the other one, [Loboda/Drodz], next week. In Russia ,they have great hopes for those couples. They only have two spots for Olympics, the impression is there will be three couples fighting for them: Bobrova/Soloviev, Stepanova/Bukin and Sinitsina/Katsalapov. But don’t discount those two younger couples, who may not remain with their current coaching team for much longer. They both showed something good in their first competition of the season.
It’s obvious they still lack experience in Seniors, Popova/Mogzov is a relatively recent partnership [t/n they started in 2016], but they had great results in Junior. Especially Sergey Mogzov, who won everything there is to win in Juniors. Let’s see. They are one of Russia’s hope for Ice Dance, a discipline they used to lead, once upon a time, but where they now have quite a big gap to cover compared to other nations.
Part 3: Questions & Answers
(H): Let’s get to the questions from our listeners. You have already partially answered some of them during this podcast. The first one is about Gracie Gold.
(M): We’ve already said something, but we can go a bit deeper into our comments. Gracie Gold is a skater of great talent, no doubt about it. High-level skating skills, pristine Lutz, quality spins. Gold lacked nothing to succeed, if not a better competition strategy perhaps, and that’s one of the reasons I would never send anyone to Carroll. I’m one of those who, several years ago, strongly disapproved of Kostner going to train with him, even if not many agreed with me back then and called me an idiot just to change their minds after a while – but this is the past. Back to Gold: an athlete who was in the wrong place at the wrong moment. An athlete who kept presenting programs that hindered her, because a Flip shouldn’t even exist in her short programs: go with a Rittberger, instead, which is a way more solid jump. 0.2 point of difference in BV don’t make a difference, but no one seemed to understand it and what has Gracie won in her career? Next to nothing.
That said, she has been dominant in Boston’s World Championships SP. Then, she lost herself in the Free and something broke down.
The life of a skater is full of sacrifice. Sacrifice not only in terms of training. It means to have less free time for friends, hobbies, and also to be under a certain dietary regime, let’s not hide it. Something inside Gold broke. The Gracie I saw this summer was at least 15kg overweight [for being a competitive skater] – an athlete unable to complete doubles. I don’t know if she can come back. I’d love for her to be able to, because she is a pure talent who had the misfortune to be in the wrong place in her best moments.
I think that had Gold been coached by someone else, her results would have been very different. Then, for some, Frank Carroll is a guru, and I don’t question his results as a coach in the past, with skaters who varied a lot between them, like Goebel and Lysacek, for example, and kudos to him for that - but that was another era. The management of Gold has been senseless in the last few seasons, in my opinion.
(A): No doubt there have been many mistakes. What is sad now is to see not only the athlete, but also the person, in great difficulty. She clearly said she was not well, and not only could she not participate in GP, she couldn’t even properly train. She needs a break to regroup. She mentioned the main problems: stress first and then anxiety, but also issues linked to nutrition. You mentioned her shift in weight, and sadly nutrition problems are quite common in our discipline. Weight has its importance in skaters’ – especially female skaters’ – performance, and often the fine line between a sane sporting dietary and a nutritional pathology is quite easy to cross.
(M): In any case, success and sacrifice are closely linked and it may happen that at one point your body tells you, “STOP”.
(A): It’s true, and you need to be able to listen to your body in those moments.
(H): You talked about Frank Carroll, and here we have a question about three great schools of figure skating. Brian Orser’s, Eteri Tutberidze’s and Mie Hamada’s. If you could pick one, to which would you send a hypothetical “Kiss & Cry” young skater?
(M): [laughing] If it were a girl, I’d say to Tutberidze. A boy to Orser. Highest respect for Mie Hamada, but she hasn’t won anything big yet, junior world championship aside. And a slightly peculiar Junior World Champion title, with Tsurskaya and Fedichkina both injured during the competition. Marin Honda did skate in an amazing way and did win deservedly, of course, but it was a really weird event. And how could you not send a girl to Tutberidze, if you had the chance?
(A): If she accepts to train her, but that’s another topic.
(M): And we are back to one of our points. Tutberidze’s scouts cover all competitions in Russia. Then they send skaters’ curricula, videos, everything there is to know. They can’t pick everybody and usually they favour athletes they can start training in-house from very young. But those aren’t always the best athletes all around, in which case, they also import already-formed athletes. This season, two new entries joined their ranks: Tarakanova and Kostornaia, both JGP Finalists… we can’t say they did badly.
Orser did win an Olympic Title with Yuna Kim. But he did amazing things with male skaters: how many World Championships did he bring home? Four? Two for Hanyu, and two for Fernandez. So a boy can go there, no doubt.
Then, if we speak about Japan, Hamada is probably the best school there, now. For quality of skating and everything that is PCS, but also for technique.
(A): What is curious is how Japanese schools have little attractive power. They produce (great skaters), but they don’t attract any to them. They produce and then may send them abroad.
(M): Historically, it has always been so. When has Japan (skating) ever imported something? It’s a very different culture.
(A): Indeed. Instead, they always exported a lot. Athletes already formed, because if you look at Hanyu, for example, he learnt much under Orser, but he already had a huge basis upon which to build when he left Japan. But I’d pick Orser too, probably for a girl, too. It depends on many factors. It must be said that Russian schools don’t import much either, but in that case, it’s more a choice on their part.
(M): I have to stress on something. The two Japanese Olympic Champions, Arakawa and Hanyu, trained abroad before their Olympic success, but what else do they have in common? Their provenance. Sendai.
Japan is a nation with a great tradition and culture of winter sports, and not only in the Hokkaido prefecture, Japan’s northern island and mountains area. In winter sports, Japan got great results with athletes coming from all its main islands, Okinawa aside. But Japan won very few Olympic titles and there’s a very interesting stat. In individual sports, the first gold medal coming from a place X is followed by another gold medal from the same place X.
It happened in Figure Skating, with Arakawa in 2006 and Hanyu 2014 both from Sendai, it happened also with Ski Jumping, which is the main winter sport discipline alongside figure skating there. Third one is speed skating - with Yukio Kasaya and Kazuyoshi Funaki both from Yoichi.
And again, it’s not by chance that Arakawa and Hanyu both went abroad. And it’s not by chance that the Olympic Gold hadn’t been won by Midori Ito, who always remained in Japan, instead.
(H): A listener asks you, “Why do Papadakis and Cizeron’s lifts receive +3 on GOE even if their lifts are more conservative, while other ice dancers who risk more and are more original on lifts receive +2”?
(M): First of all, what does matter [in GOE] is the quality of execution. Originality is important, but it’s not something that judges really look at. If a lift is well executed and it has the necessary bullets and is level 4, +3 is almost automatic. We can spend a long time discussing about technically difficulty of various lifts, but top dancers create their lifts for level 4 and +3.
(A): I agree with you, what’s important is first and foremost the quality of execution. Then, I’d like to stress on how Papadakis and Cizeron’s lifts have always been done with particular care and accordance to music nuances, and this is a detail especially well rewarded in Ice Dance. Even if the change of position or the choreographic movements with hands or heads are easy, if they are done underscoring musical accents, well, that’s something judges can easily pick up and reward with GOE. And we can’t forget the flow and the speed they maintain during those lifts.
(M): This (the flow and speed) is not only typical of their lifts, but of all their skating. It’s their main characteristic. There are other athletes with different weapons in their repertoire, but – and you don’t need us to tell you about it – Papadakis/Cizeron and Virtue/Moir will be the top contenders for Olympic Title. They have different ways to interpret and skate Ice Dance; even if they are now coached by the same staff, we can say they represent almost two completely different schools. May the best couple win.
(H): You already spoke about the new FP for Medvedeva. What do you think about Karen Chen changing her FP, instead?
(M): This is last-minute news. Karen Chen is another athlete who decided to drop the chosen FP - a Carmen, in her case. I’m more intrigued about what brought the decision to pick “Carmen” as the Olympic program in the first place, though. Karen’s mother liked Carmen and decided it was the right program and so, with the agreement from her coaching team, Carmen it was. A coaching team that is led by Tammy Gambill, one of the most underrated USA coaches, and a coach who is doing a good job with skaters from the USA and, not only from there – see Brendan Kerry, for example. Anyway, Karen Chen did have very little freedom of choice with her previous FP. But then she realized it wasn’t a music she was able to skate well enough and – probably convincing her mother too – she decided to switch to a new one in the last few days. There isn’t much time to prepare a new FP – she will be a Skate Canada, right?
(A): Yes, at Regina for Skate Canada.
(M): It would be an interesting topic to look into: how a piece of music is chosen, who has more influence over it, different scenarios depending on different skaters and couples.
(H): Another question: “Chances to see Ivan Righini in his best shape again?”
(A): I don’t think we are the right people who can answer this question. We’d need to hear what his coaching team has to say.
(M): We’d need the chance to watch him in practice. He is training in the same rink alongside other skilled skaters. One of his training mates is Samarin, for example, who executes three differents quads, including the Lutz. Lutz which, as all toe jumps are, has always been one of Righini’s strengths. He often did Rippon-Lutz and Rippon-Flip.
Then again, his character is not so easy to read. When he is in good condition, he is a competitive skater, I’m not sure if above Rizzo’s level, but still… it’s hard to judge anything when you can’t see him in practice.
I think Italy did give him a great opportunity. I’m not sure we can say he exploited it at its fullest.
(A): For what I know about the two skaters, I’d say that, today, Matteo Rizzo is more competitive, if nothing else, for the consistency he has shown on the triple Axel, something that Righini never handled well.
(M): Not to mention that Matteo put away so many good scores [t/n for Italian Internal ranking] that it’s going to be prohibitive for anyone else to catch him [t/n for Olympics Team]. And Matteo conquered those points all on his own merits and deservedly so. He did miss one program this season so far. Sadly, it’s that one program that keeps him from being in the Junior Grand Prix Final, but it is still only one program. We’ll see what happens at the Nationals, but I don’t believe that anyone - even if that person won the Italian Championships - could win with such a margin on Matteo to knock him down from first place in the ranking list.
(H): Speaking of Rizzo, “Can he participate in the next Junior World Championships?”
(M): Of course, based on eligibility rules we explained earlier. Then we will see if he does go there, it’s not like he can do everything, poor boy. To be part of important international events is awesome, but Senior World Championships at home, Olympic Games, Junior World Championships in the middle… at some point, he and his team need to make some decisions. Of course, if he is in good health and well prepared, and if he can also add a 4T to his repertoire, he is the one who can go to JWC and also get a medal: a crowning moment for Italian skating, but everything needs to be properly evaluated. Priorities needs to be put down and we must first consider whether Matteo will be able to participate in all the competitions, maintaining a high level of performances. He has a great team around him, just look at his father’s results, his mother’s, his coach does know international skating very well… I think they can decide on the best route to follow.
Let’s not forget, again, that this boy did take part in 4 competitions in a month, and he did miss a program. Even at Lombardia, where he struggled a bit more in SP, he did show good things. Lots of quality, many positive aspects: just let’s not try to do too much overtime work. Let’s not forget WC at home in Milan - he wasn’t born in Milan, because his parents weren’t coaching there at that time, but agonistically speaking, he grew up in Lombardy. Zanica, Sesto, now Bergamo: all important rinks for Italian figure skating and I’d say, once upon a time, for short track, too. I remember I went to Zanica for training when I was a kid, because at those times, it was hard to find ice rinks in Milan. Not for you, you had the Piranesi rink for you, because you were privileged [laughs] (t/n Piranesi was the historical ice rink in Milan. Also known as “Palaghiaccio,” it was where elite figure skaters trained and Milan hockey teams played. It opened in 1923 and shut down in 2002 after many economical troubles). We could only go there for some competitions, otherwise we had the Saini rink [t/n Saini is a multi-sports center, nowadays especially used by Universities], outdoor and with leaves and branches from trees around that fell on ice, or Zanica when weather was bad or ice couldn’t be maintained. [laughs again]. Stories of other times.
(H): Next one: “Best FP/SP of Carolina’s career”
(M): [bursts out laughing] Oh, boy… I do believe we could talk for a whole podcast about this. Especially on the construction of some of those programs. I’ve quite a peculiar relationship speaking about Kostner. “Caro-fans” consider me an enemy who berates Kostner. “Anti-Kostner” consider me an enemy who defends Kostner when she can’t be defended. My position is neither one nor the other. Simply, I don’t get extremely excited over wins, like during Worlds at Nice in 2012, where the technical content was what it was, and I don’t get depressed over defeats where she showed interesting things. It’s a position that seems to dissatisfy everybody, but let it be so.
That said, if we analyse pre-2010 programs, we can see some difficulty - not from Kostner, but from those who designed those programs - in understanding where figure skating was going [t/n: understanding how to make the COP System work in your favour]. Probably many things weren’t understood by many, or only Brian Orser really got them…
(A): They were ambitious programs, probably too much. Maybe they did understand the system, but those programs weren’t suited to the skater and to the best characteristic of that skater. We can’t deny that in some parts of her career, she attempted some very tough technical content.
(M): For sure, but we go back to baby Kostner, a skater who grew up with a different scoring system. And after that, (her team) struggled to understand how to best exploit the COP System for her. In other words: she was a skater who could have aimed for high GOE even in that part of her career from 2007 to 2010, something she never did because her programs were far too demanding.
Look at Worlds in Goteborg (2008). Some say Kostner should have won because Asada fell before a 3A. No, Kostner shouldn’t have won. Because if you go and look at Carolina’s quality on all her jumps, there’s not a single one she managed to complete well. Of course, the technical level reached was high - by Carolina, Asada herself, Kim who got bronze… but if you look at her quality there, it wasn’t on the same level as others’.
And let me tell you more. The difference between Carolina and Kim/Sotnikova in Sochi was again the same. Carolina did complete two Axels and seven triples [in Sochi], but the quality of her second-half jumps was nowhere comparable to what the other two showed. That’s not contestable. So, if we really want to say she should have won the Gold Medal, let’s say so and pat ourselves on the back, but if you go and analyse every jump, you have to point this out.
(A): That said, Sochi’s FP remains one of her best programs of her career.
(M): An exceptional program, for sure.
(A): An exceptional program, regardless of the final result. A bronze she got deservedly and with a great performance.
(M): Even more considering the difficulty of that music, Bolero. Last week, we talked about musics to retire. Bolero for Ice Dance was one of them. And she did manage to skate to the same music with a very high-level program. Probably her best free program tout-court.
I’d say that she had many more good short programs than free programs in her career. In short programs, she always managed to express herself better, for many different reasons.
(A): Shubert’s Ave Maria is very nice.
(M): But also the short program for this season.
(A): Quite good too, indeed. And then Dvorak (Humoresque), too. Among free programs, I’d mention also Memoirs of a Geisha, for the program and the choreo itself, more than any of her performances of it. One of my favourite programs all round choreographed to that music.
(M): A program that, even if you were to compare it with the best Asian skaters, wouldn’t lose in a battle on quality.
I repeat, my doubts on Kostner are on the strategy she followed during the golden years of her career. We can’t forget that Kostner started her Senior Career at the worst possible moment. A no man’s land, during the switch from one system to the other. I’ve said this more than once: 13-years-old Kostner could have left her mark on the figure skating world much more strongly than she did.
(A): I remember this program from 2004, a free program, in which she did complete six triples and one double Axel in the five jumping passes she was allowed to do. Two 3-3 combo plus 2A-Lo-3S. And we are talking about 2004.
(M): Indeed. Back then, Kostner was the equivalent of what young Russian skaters are now. For sure, that skating was less complex if we speak about transitions. Kostner could put down that flow and speed she always had and that would switch things in her favour. Potentially she was a #1. She had, even as a kid, some “black-outs”, losing competitions she had basically already won. I’m recalling a Final of the Junior Grand Prix.
Frankly, there are many beautiful programs by Kostner. If we take strategy into account, I’d say: Bolero, the idea to bring that to Olympics was perfect. Short program, I’m more in doubt, Šostakovič (Allegretto From Piano Trio n.2) was very good, too.
Maybe the problem is that, lately, her choreo tends to be a bit repetitive. It would have been nice to see Kostner working with another choreographer at some point in her career. Just switching it up a bit, especially now that she has reached a great maturity.
(A): Maybe using two different choreographers in the same season, one for the short, the other for the free.
(M): Sooner or later, we will talk in depth of Carolina’s career. Outside of Italy, she remains the most famous (Italian) athlete from a winter sport. You can’t find an athlete with her popularity, even taking in consideration alpine skiing, biathlon, and all other winter sports. Her popularity goes beyond the results she reached.
(A): And probably, rightfully so.
(M): Results that are exceptional for an Italian athlete, good if we speak in absolute terms. Just a pity, because with her talent, she could have won more. And the fault is not hers.
Her management, her strategies, her program layouts… all of these had been mishandled at certain phases of her career.
How many times did we try to understand the rationale behind some of those choices?
I remember once, we were in Helsinki, in the practice rink: the Cave, a jewel. And we asked, “But why is she doing this?” And the answer we got from her staff was: “Because there isn’t a program with a higher BV, you can’t get more points than with that.”
How can’t you get more points than with that?! Go for something easier! Cut down on the mistakes, aim for quality and high GOE, that’s how you get more points. There had been this misinterpretation of the new system that somehow penalized her, not taking Frank Carroll into account, who was the lowest point of her career – but that couldn’t have come out any differently.
(H): Last question for today: "We had three (Italian) junior skaters in Egna and three in Marseille [sic], the latter ones had very promising results, especially considering they were all Novice skaters last season. Their scores have been quite high, too, higher than Gennaro's in Egna. Were those scores in France too high or can we take them seriously?"
(M): Complicated topic. First of all, it wasn't Marseille, but Nice. Coupe de Nice, an event that is always hard to judge, especially for the uneven conditions you can find there. 25 degrees (C) outside, and I remember a Pairs event with huge puddles on ice causing all lifts to be extremely risky. That aside, we talked a bit last week and also earlier today. Lucrezia Gennaro did grow up a lot over the past few months. Unluckily, she also had some physical issue, and now she is going through a difficult moment. We need to wait and see if she will be able to get healthy again. The other one we didn't mention is Piredda, who was in Nice together with Beccari and Tornaghi. At the start of the season, Beccari seemed in better shape, now it's Tornaghi's turn. They both have a good technical repertoire already, and they are cared for by ambitious staff. Let's see what happens in the future. As of today, I'm not able to predict a ranking. There are too many factors to take into account.
(A): It's fair to give some space for all these athletes to grow. Beccari had a stage in JGP; Leccardi is still the one getting highest scores (among them); Tornaghi did very well in Nice. But it's always difficult to compare scores in a Junior GP with other Junior competitions. We can't just look at cold numbers. What needs to be looked at is the many good performances our juniors have had. Everybody will have their chance, but what [the Italian fed] needs to consider more thoroughly is whom they choose to send to the Worlds, because that choice will be very important to determine the next season’s spots for JGP. Leccardi did very well last season at JWC.
(M): Angelo, let's explain what you mean by " consider more thoroughly". Junior competitions are bound to the mandatory solo jump in SP [t/n for juniors competitions, the jump “preceded by steps/comparable movements” is fixed and change every season. This season is Lutz] , so maybe it would be worth it to send the one with the more secure 3Lz among them.
(A): Yes, it's very important to get over the cut-off in the SP at Worlds, and the better the result, the more spots for the following season’s JGP.
(M): Don't forget who we will have there: 3 Russians, 3 Japanese, 2 Koreans, USA skaters are not far... (from ours). Dream results would be to get near top 10.
(A): Hard but not impossible.
(M): Leccardi has very ambitious programs. Let's not forget that she is eligible for Seniors, same as Gennaro. Not the others, who are younger. It's a good group of athletes. We had other good groups in the past. Casella, Tagliapietra, Cristini... some of them lost their way, others had physical issues. Cristini is now back in Seniors, and she’s one of our best in the category. But much can change for girls. Elements you completed at 13 may be out of your reach at 15. Young girls are not always the easiest to take care of. Other nations’ organization and quality [in their management of an athlete] is different, but it's a complex topic.
Let's see. For sure, the Italian Junior Ladies Team is an interesting one.
(A): And this is the most important thing.
[skipping Rostelecom Cup Eurosport coverage information]
And that’s all for Podcast #4!
Thanks and cheers for anyone who reached last line. As usual, we hope you enjoyed!
Cheers,
The-A-Team
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