#his investments are in U.S treasury bonds if anything

[betty-bourgeoisie]

Honestly I really don't view Alfred as being especially wealthy compared to any of the other nations. The country he represents has a lot of money sure, but he's a government bureaucrat with the same union contract and dental insurance as any other government bureaucrat.

#hws america #aph america #boring Alfred strikes again #this man hasn't touched the stock market since 1929 either #his investments are in U.S treasury bonds if anything #Hetalia

[egebergschaefer49]

Ulster Veterans Being 'hounded By Ex-IRA Chiefs', Claims Johnny Mercer

A Gold IRA may be a conventional IRA, a ROTH IRA, a SEP-IRA, a Simple IRA, or and Inherited IRA that is self-directed and owns IRA eligible physical gold coins or gold bars. Membership eligibility: Current or former employees of Alliant's U.S. Once the maturity date has expired, you may withdraw the funds or renew the CD at the current curiosity price offered by the financial institution or credit union. Membership eligibility: Membership is restricted to current or retired school staff, speedy relations or staff of choose companies. It involves his position at the guts of IRA and Sinn Fein determination-making in the course of the a long time when the organization was chargeable for an extended, darkish checklist of atrocities against members of the British Armed Forces and civilians alike. On the time, Mr. Adams spoke against a “culture of concealment” around abuse, but exactly that angle has come to outline his fastidiously engineered words relating to his role in the IRA. No. As a part of the IRS’ rules concerning precious metals IRAs, we, because the seller, Must ship the merchandise to an accepted IRA depository, who then holds the steel until the time you might be ready to liquidate the position. You possibly can leave that cash in money until you're ready to make a purchase order.

To invest in precious metals via a self-directed IRA, you should establish a valid IRA and have money out there in the IRA. Nonetheless, a majority of the most important custodians similar to Charles Schwab, Merrill Lynch, and JP Morgan Chase do not supply physical treasured metals as an funding option. Yes, our minimum purchase for all sales to APMEX is $1,000 (USD). • In-Variety Distributions: You possibly can have the precise valuable metal shipped to you after the distribution. goldira4u.com of cordite that when surrounded him through the grim decades of the Troubles has been consciously muted: for some, it is now just potent enough to add an exciting hint of spice to his appearances at social gatherings. The memory of that lost mother of 10, glimpsed now solely in a grainy snapshot with three of the smiling kids she would by no means see grow up, has proved inconceivable to bury: she is the stubborn ghost that nonetheless haunts IRA leaders, calling for answers. But regardless of the mounting heat around the problem, it had concurrently grow to be part of the received knowledge that, given his centrality to the “peace process”, Mr. Adams was someway untouchable by the regulation: his arrest now has sent shockwaves through the media and the political institution in Eire and past.

On Wednesday evening, 65-year-old Gerry Adams was arrested by the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) in connection with her murder and was nonetheless being held for questioning Friday evening. TUCSON, Ariz. - Courtroom records say a University of Arizona basketball player will spend no less than Sunday night time in Pima County jail as part of a plea deal resulting from his August arrest on suspicion of DUI. Lastly, in 2003, a walker on the beach in County Louth glimpsed a piece of fabric sticking out of the ground and investigated further: it was Mrs McConville’s tweed coat. In 1999, the IRA lastly admitted that it had shot Mrs McConville in the head and buried her physique, nevertheless it by no means gave an correct location for her stays.

Mr. Adams has repeatedly denied knowing anything in any respect concerning the homicide of Mrs McConville. It's on the basis of those paperwork that police are interviewing Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams. The Treasury in an announcement mentioned it imposed sanctions in opposition to “the network of Kremlin-related Russian operative” Evgeny Prigozhin, a businessman with ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin and chief of the IRA. Investments like high-high quality bonds or Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (Ideas), then, could also be better choices for these searching for safety and inflation hedging. The Treasury accused the individuals and entities blacklisted on Wednesday of working on behalf of Prigozhin to “advance Russia’s affect within the Central African Republic. Note: people are allowed to have multiple IRAs and divide their IRA belongings amongst different custodians. Some custodians use multiple facilities and offer you the option of choosing between completely different services. Can I take advantage of it to buy gold?

#gold ira roll

[ailtrahq]

Democratic Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. expressed his clear stance on figures such as Julian Assange and Edward Snowden.What Happened: Kennedy Jr. in an interview with Bitcoin Magazine published on Wednesday vowed to pardon them on his first day in office if elected as president. Additionally, he expressed interest in reviewing the case of Ross Ulbricht, the founder of Silk Road, to determine the fairness of his conviction and sentence.Former Central Intelligence Agency contractor Edward Snowden, a self-proclaimed whistleblower, as well as Wikileaks founder Julian Assange, have been pursued by the U.S. government for years over accusations they leaked confidential and sensitive information.Kennedy Jr. stated, “Yeah, I will pardon Julian Assange on day one, and probably Snowden as well. And I will look at other cases… I’m gonna look at Ross Ulbricht's case, to see if he was justly convicted, or if he was being made an example of in order to discourage, you know, Bitcoin or the industry.”Ulbricht is serving a double life sentence for his role in creating the Silk Road marketplace on the dark web that allowed users to purchase almost anything, including illegal substances, with Bitcoin. The Silk Road website was created in 2011 and was eventually shut down by the Federal Bureau of Investigation in 2013.Kennedy Jr.’s interest in Bitcoin stems from witnessing the trucker strike and the government’s response to peaceful demonstrations. He explained, “I understood that we need a currency that is a freedom currency… independent and that can’t be controlled by the government.”When asked about concerns regarding government influence or restrictions on Bitcoin and Bitcoin mining, RFK Jr. expressed his worry about government attacks on the cryptocurrency. "I’m very concerned about all the government attacks on Bitcoin. You know, what I would like to do is to at least provide some issuance of treasury bills, that it’s backed by hard currency.He proposed issuing treasury bills backed by hard assets, including Bitcoin, platinum, gold, and silver, to provide greater stability and independence from government control.Will The SEC Finally Approve Long-Awaited Bitcoin Spot ETF? secure early bird discounted tickets now!A Stay At The Floating Palace From James Bond's ‘OctopussyWhy It Matters: However, he made it clear that he opposes central bank digital currencies, fearing they would become instruments of power and control, giving the government complete authority over people’s lives. He specifically mentioned events in China, where digital currencies were tied to social credit systems and obedience to government mandates.Kennedy Jr. continued, “I’m gonna make sure that Bitcoin is protected, that people can get their own wallets… and the current White House war on Bitcoin will be over. And I’ll look ultimately at treating it as a currency rather than a commodity, particularly for smaller Bitcoin owners.”Although Jr. provided a general direction for his approach, he acknowledged the need to consult with experts and industry specialists, such as Stanley Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones, to develop the best strategies that uphold individual freedoms and promote the reindustrialization of America, benefiting working Americans.He has publicly declared his support for Bitcoin. "I bought two Bitcoin for each of my seven children," Kennedy disclosed during an interview in July. He made this investment shortly after speaking at the Bitcoin Conference in May. Price Action: At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $27,362.22, down 0.86% in the last 24 hours, according to Benzinga Pro. Here’s How Much You Should Invest In Shiba Inu Today For A $1M Payday If SHIB Hits 1 Cent?

[amoheric]

Rich Dad Poor Dad’s Robert Kiyosaki Changes His Mind About Treasury Bonds — Says ‘Time to Open My Closed Mind’

Rich Dad Poor Dad’s Robert Kiyosaki Changes His Mind About Treasury Bonds — Says ‘Time to Open My Closed Mind’

The famous author of the best-selling book Rich Dad Poor Dad, Robert Kiyosaki, says it’s time to open his closed mind after listening to economist Harry Dent. He is now buying 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds despite repeatedly saying he does not invest in anything printed by the Federal Reserve or Wall Street. Robert Kiyosaki Influenced by Harry Dent, Buys Treasury Bonds The author of Rich Dad Poor…

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[yesmobilepk]

Rich Dad Poor Dad's Robert Kiyosaki Changes His Mind About Treasury Bonds — Says 'Time to Open My Closed Mind'

Rich Dad Poor Dad's Robert Kiyosaki Changes His Mind About Treasury Bonds — Says 'Time to Open My Closed Mind'

The famous author of the best-selling book Rich Dad Poor Dad, Robert Kiyosaki, says it’s time to open his closed mind after listening to economist Harry Dent. He is now buying 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds despite repeatedly saying he does not invest in anything printed by the Federal Reserve or Wall Street. Robert Kiyosaki Influenced by Harry Dent, Buys Treasury Bonds The author of Rich Dad Poor…

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[libertariantaoist]

Remember, the essence of becoming wealthy is to produce more than you consume and save the difference.

Gold remains the only financial asset that's not simultaneously someone else's liability.

Government doesn't just do the wrong thing, it does the exact opposite of the right thing.

The worst enemies of individual liberty are the knaves that claim they're fot it but utterly betray it. And incompetents and ineffectual fools who say they're trying to save freedom by increasing the size of the state.

Foreign aid might be defined as a transfer from poor people in rich countries to rich people in poor countries.

An investor risks 100% of [his] money in the hopes of receiving a 10% gain. A speculator risks just 10% in anticipation of earning 100%.

The conventions for measuring GDP include government expenditures, so GDP is a poor measure of underlying economic health. The government might, for instance, hire 10 million people to dig ditches during the day, 10 million more to fill them in at night, and 5 million bureaucrats to monitor the work. That would pump up GDP and reduce unemployment, but it wouldn't increase society's wealth. It would decrease it.

There is cause and there is effect. You don't want to be the effect of somebody else's cause. You want to be the cause for everything in your life. That implies working for yourself.

Power not only corrupts, it draws the corrupt. - “Doug Casey on Phyles,” 4/13/201

The thought of how far the human race would have advanced without government simply staggers the imagination.

Government intervention in the economy - through taxes, regulation and, most importantly, currency inflation - causes distortions and misallocations of capital that must eventually be unwound. The distortions degrade the general standard of living, and the economy goes into a recession (call that an incomplete cleansing). Or it goes into a depression - wherein the entire sickly structure comes unglued.

Government sponsors untold waste, criminality and inequality in every sphere of life it touches, giving little or nothing in return.

What keeps a truly civil society together isn’t laws, regulations, and police. It's peer pressure, social opprobrium, moral approbation, and your reputation.

So-called 'higher education' is a veritable magnet for second-raters and actively destructive parasites bent on promoting unsound ideas to the inexperienced and gullible. They concentrate in areas like social studies, literature, and art - where opinion reigns supreme. And I find their opinions almost universally appalling.

Over two thousand years ago, Aristotle taught us that money should be durable, divisible, consistent, convenient, and value in itself. It should be durable, which is why wheat isn't money; divisible which is why works of art are not money; consistent which is why real estate isn't money; convenient, which is why lead isn't money; value in itself, which is why paper shouldn't be money. Gold answers to all these criteria.

Fear is being used by the political class as an excuse to accumulate more power and self-importance - and collect a lot more taxes to support their agenda.

Do all that you say you are going to do and don't aggress against other people or their property. That's the whole of the law. I can live with a law like that.

Trusting the government with money creation is like trusting a drunk with a whiskey factory.

People who buy government debt deserve to be punished and taught a lesson.

Democracy is no solution - it's just 51% bossing the other 49% around. For God's sake, Hitler was democratically elected! Democracy is just mob rule dressed up in a coat and tie.

All these people who think they deserve free health care, or a job, or a plasma screen TV, simply because they radiate heat at 98.6 degrees, or because they were born in a certain place, or because they have a certain skin color - it's all bunk. There's no such thing as a 'just' wage. There's only what you earn.

Today most funding for science comes through government. That means that you have to be known to be sympathetic to conclusions that are acceptable to the political classes.

Global warming is the most prominent form of mass hysteria raging across the world today.

They've been changing the cry from 'global warming' to 'climate change' because there's so little evidence there's actually any warming going on. I believe that as little as a decade from now, global warming will be recognized as one of the greatest swindles in world history. It has so little scientific basis, it can only rationally be considered a political scam.

There's no doubt in my mind that we'll have a mania in gold. And because the gold and especially silver markets are so tiny, the rush into them will be like trying to push the contents of Hoover Dam through a garden hose. Our positions will go absolutely ballistic.

Global warming hysterics generally have limited scientific knowledge, and of geology and meteorology in particular. Their belief is not science; it's more akin to religion. The main epicenter of hysteria is not the scientific community but seems to be Hollywood.

No one can predict whether the earth will be cooler or hotter next year, let alone do anything to change it. If you're afraid of global warming, turn off the lights when you leave the room - but don't participate in the corruption of science, don't scare our kids with unproven cataclysmic theories, and don't try to ban economic energy sources that people living on this planet depend upon today. And don't try to stop progress; it's the only hope the earth has of seeing clean industry, short of exterminating mankind.

The time will come, and probably during 2009, that the only way the U.S. will be able to fund its deficits is to create money by printing it. The Treasury will have to sell bonds, and, in the absence of foreign buyers, the Fed will have to print the money to buy them. The consequence will be runaway inflation, increasing interest rates, recession, and inevitable tax increases on all Americans.

The way I see it, gold is headed over $1000 an ounce, probably much higher. At anywhere near current prices, it's the lowest risk, highest potential investment I can think of.

Throughout history government has served as a vehicle for the organization of hatred and oppression, benefiting no one except those who are ambitious and ruthless enough to gain control of it.

The average American has been so brainwashed that he thinks he has a moral obligation to give the government whatever it asks for.

Read More

#doug casey #libertarian quotes

[billehrman]

Laser-Focused on the New Normal

The coronavirus has played havoc in our lives resulting in mindset shifts around how we go about our daily activities such as shopping, education, work, entertainment and so much more. More time will be spent at home doing these as part of the “New Normal.”

The resurgence in cases has reinforced that the return to anything resembling normal is far away even if we have therapeutics by the fall and vaccines by year end. We expect that states to mandate wearing masks, social distancing and contact tracing to curb the growth in the number of cases.  This won’t stop, although it can limit, a second wave, expected in the fall coinciding with the regular flu outbreak.

We still expect the economy to continue to improve off the bottom as businesses open, but the gains may be uneven through 2022. One of the keys to the rate of gain in our economy is whether schools open in the fall permitting parents to go back to work.  Right now, it’s up in the air.

The financial markets continue to be buttressed by the unprecedented amount of liquidity being provided by the Fed along with mammoth stimulus programs provided by the government. All this liquidity is not needed by the real economy, so it continues to find itself moving into risk assets of all kinds. It certainly does not hurt that the Fed is standing there backstopping the bond market which has permitted companies even in the worst shape to raise capital hoping to make it to the other side. But herein lies a risk, too, if demand does not return quick enough to stop these companies from bleeding millions of dollars per day like the airlines. We fully expect bankruptcies to increase meaningfully over the next year which is the primary reason why we continue to avoid investing in the banks.

While we remain favorably inclined to the stock market in general, stock selection is the key to absolute and relative performance. We have remained laser-focused on owning the beneficiaries of the new normal.  These companies have tremendous wind to their backs as they are benefitting from an acceleration of an already rising demand for technology as each home has become a mini data center. These companies have superior managements with winning strategies; rising earnings, huge cash flow and pristine balance sheets. Compare them to over half the S & P where earnings are declining, cash flow is negative and balance sheets are rapidly deteriorating. Now, can you understand why these companies are selling and deserve a large premium valuation in today’s market? Even at today’s valuation, their earnings yield is well above well above the 10- and 30-year treasury yield. This is a key Buffett valuation measure.

Second quarter earnings reports begin next week and we will be paying close attention to how companies continue to react to the pandemic and their balance sheets. We think that investors might be shocked by the large amount of debt added by many companies to stay afloat.  The aggregate debt issuance is unprecedented.  We also expect to hear that many companies will be cutting employment levels and other costs to right-size their businesses. This is a two-edged sword as it will lead to higher margins down the road as business improves but it also means that our unemployment rate will not improve as much as expected as the economy recovers and wages will stay under pressure too which could minimize the improvement in consumer sales down the road.

The news on therapeutics and vaccines continues to be positive. Gilead’s reported yesterday that its drug Remdesivir reduces the mortality rate by 62% and improves recovery. In addition, the German biotech company working with Pfizer announced that it is confident it will be ready to seek regulatory approval for its vaccine by the end of the year with several hundred million doses ready to go. The government funded several more companies last week to accelerate their research, testing and production of therapeutics and vaccines. Testing and contact tracing also continued to increase meaningfully week to week.  While cases rose to record levels last week, the death rate continues to fall as the average age is dropping; some therapeutics are already being successfully used; and doctors are using better practices learned over the last few months. Companies are being pro-active in testing their employees before returning to work and while on the job. All of this is a reason for optimism that even if there is a large outbreak in the fall, our medical system will be well prepared to handle it.

It is clear after hearing from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin comments last week that the government will support another large package to help individuals and companies in need and provide incentives for individuals to go back to work. There will be an extension of enhanced unemployment benefits for furloughed workers and a more targeted version of the Paycheck Protection Program of forgivable loans for small businesses. Officials are also discussing another round of direct payments to individuals. No doubt the government will have a plan ready to go before the Cares Act expires the end of this month.  

We were somewhat disappointed listening to Biden this past Thursday present his $700 billion economic revival plan. Under his plan, the Federal government would spend $400 billion purchasing U.S-based goods and services over 4 years and spend $300 billion on research and development for new technologies and energy initiatives. He would pay for these programs and much more by increasing the individual and corporate tax rates. We are all for investing in America but are leery of hiking corporate taxes especially in today’s environment. And we could accept raising taxes on the very wealthy and increasing the number of years needed to own stocks to garner preferential capital gains as long as the plan is revenue neutral cutting lower- and middle-class taxes. We still believe that the race will tighten significantly between now and election day if the economy improves and news on the coronavirus gets better. If not, Biden will win. The key then is whether the Democrats take control of the Senate, too. Clearly, we will be factoring in the elections more and more into our investment thesis as we get closer to November.

Investment Conclusions

The markets continue to be driven by excessive liquidity provided by the Fed along with huge amounts of stimulus provided by the government. Don’t forget that the Fed will remain all in until the end of 2022. And so will the government. That is huge providing a back stop to the market and owning risk assets.  The economy bottomed in May and has begun a multiyear cycle which will be led by the consumer. Overall S&P earnings will take to the end of 2022 to hit new highs unless Biden wins and hikes the corporate tax rate which would reduce reported earnings by around 12%.  As the economy improves both here and abroad, we would expect inflation to increase too which along with increasing demand for funds as the economy improves is the reason why we would not own bonds with over a 3-year duration.

Technology remains the core of our portfolios as their earnings will increase during the pandemic and accelerate as we move through to the other side and beyond. We find them still undervalued using both earnings yield and discounted cash flow analysis.  Our technology holdings are very diversified from software, hardware, semis, 5G, internet, cloud and data centers. Each one will sustain growth well in excess of 15-20%/year over the next few years. We also own several special situations which are benefitting from the move to the new normal. Finally, we would own industrial commodities, gold and moderate growth high dividend payers yielding on average over 3.15%. Continue to avoid all companies whose business is being hurt by the pandemic forcing them to raise billions of debt to hopefully make it to the other side. Many will not.

Our weekly webinar will be held on Monday July 13th at 8:30 am EST. You can join the webinar by entering https://zoom.us/j/9179217852 into your browser or dialing [phone] and entering the password ID 9179217852.

Remember to review all the facts; pause, reflect and consider mindset shifts; look at your asset mix with risk controls; turn off your cable news; do independent research and…

Invest Accordingly!

Bill Ehrman

Paix et Prospérité LLC

917-951-4139

[bountyofbeads]

Trump Focuses on Economy at Davos, Seeking a Counter to Impeachment https://nyti.ms/36cm7JC

Trump is with his “people” at Davos-the wealthy one per cent who are responsible for crippling recessions and the group who will not put their ample resources to work to make a difference in the huge challenge of climate change. They represent money but not wisdom and responsibility. Davos is a “ see and be seen “ opportunity not a forum for serious solutions to the world’s problems.

Also, what's not to love about Trumpnomics? More subsidies to big industries, less taxes for the rest of us and to social welfare programsw; shifts the federal tax burden from business to their employees and customers; rebalances regulations to favor business over employees, customers and the environment. Never mind that the National Debt grows more than the economy (GDP), even as infrastructure decays and more people are disconnected from the benefits of economic growth. Never mind the cost to society and the planet...

TRUMP TAKES A VICTORY LAP AT DAVOS, CROWING ABOUT THE U.S. ECONOMY AND IGNORING IMPEACHMENT

By Anne Gearan and Toluse Olorunnipa | Published Jan 21 at 7:46 AM EST | Washington Post | Posted Jan 21, 2020 |

DAVOS, Switzerland — President Trump trumpeted what he called "America's extraordinary prosperity" on his watch, taking credit for a soaring stock market, a low unemployment rate, and a "blue-collar boom" in jobs and income, in a presidential turn on the world stage also meant to make impeachment proceedings against him in Washington look small.

Trump ran through economic statistics with a salesman's delivery, crowing about growth during his three years in office that he said bested his predecessors and defied his skeptics.

“America is thriving; America is flourishing, and, yes, America is winning again like never before,” he told an audience of billionaires, world leaders and figures from academia, media, and the kind of international organizations and think tanks for whom his “America First” nationalism is anathema.

Trump is making his second visit to the World Economic Forum, which for its 50th anniversary this year is focusing on climate change and sustainability. A sign at the entrance to the press center notes that paint for this year’s installation was made from seaweed, and carpets from recycled fishing nets.

Trump, who has called climate change a hoax, did not directly address the theme during his 30-minute address here, although he did call for rejecting “the perennial prophets of doom and their predictions of the apocalypse” and later said he is a big believer in the environment.

He also made no mention of impeachment or U.S. politics, although he took a swipe at “radical socialism,” his term for Democratic ideas about health care, education and other issues. The Senate impeachment trial was set to open hours after he spoke.

In response to questions from reporters after his speech, Trump called the impeachment trial a “hoax” and a “witch hunt” that has been “going on for years.”

Klaus Schwab, founder and executive chairman of the forum, thanked Trump “for injecting optimism” into the discussion.

“We have many problems in the world, but we need dreams,” he said.

Trump received a polite but not enthusiastic reception in the hall. A few in the audience slipped out well before he wrapped up.

Even as Trump faces impeachment, his trip to Davos offers him an opportunity focus on his economic message. The U.S. economy has continued to notch solid growth and maintain a low unemployment rate, and the stock market has reached record highs in recent days. Trump signed a partial trade deal with China last week, easing global tensions over his use of tariffs.

But the president faces continued questions about his approach to foreign affairs. His decision to order a strike that killed Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani earlier this month — and his threat to impose a 25 percent tariff on European cars over a foreign policy dispute — have created more tumult in the Middle East and in the transatlantic relationship between the United States and its closest allies. 

Trump was billed as the keynote speaker for the annual business-themed confab in this Alpine ski town, but the main attraction was Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg, 17, who has sparred with Trump on Twitter.

Last year, Thunberg blamed world leaders at the forum for not doing more to combat climate change. She has since echoed that message while rallying teenagers worldwide to skip school and pressure global leaders to take stronger action to address the existential threat. 

In December, Trump insulted the teenager and Time magazine “Person of the Year” as “so ridiculous” and suggested that she “work on her anger management problem.”

Thunberg was quick to respond, updating her Twitter biography to describe herself as “A teenager working on her anger management problem.”

Trump had not yet arrived in Davos when Thunberg gave her first address Tuesday morning, saying that “without treating this as a real crisis, then we cannot solve it.” He was expected to skip her main speech later in the day.

Trump is an outlier at the forum for his views on climate change. The president has publicly criticized global efforts to combat warming temperatures and has made ridiculing energy-efficient products a key part of his reelection stump speech.

Ahead of Trump’s address, Schwab told the gathering that “the world is in a state of emergency” and that the window to address climate change is closing. Speaking ahead of Trump, he also reminded the audience that “every voice” heard at the forum deserved respect.

Trump was accompanied here by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow, and a delegation including his daughter Ivanka Trump and son-in-law, Jared Kushner. Also present is adviser and speechwriter Stephen Miller, whose hard-line stance on limiting immigration and denunciations of “globalism” infused Trump’s address to the United Nations in September.

“This is the wreckage I was elected to clean up,” Trump said of the “bleak” economic landscape he inherited.

He praised himself repeatedly, saying that his actions saved the global economy from the brink of recession, rescued the American manufacturing industry and reshaped the rules of international trade to reflect a fairer system.

He occasionally strayed from the facts as he tried to paint a picture of an economy in a shambles before he took office.

He described the 4.7 percent unemployment rate before he took office as “reasonably high,” even though it was well below the average unemployment rate in the United States over the past 70 years. He also took credit for additional funding that has been approved for historically black colleges and universities, saying inaccurately that the funding “saved” the schools from ruin.

He took a swipe at the Federal Reserve for its interest rate policies, saying his economic achievements came despite the rate-setting body. Although his attacks on the Fed have become common, the once-taboo practice seemed to startle some in the audience here.

Trump is using his day-and-a-half visit to lobby corporate chieftains for greater U.S. investment and to meet with leaders including Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, Iraqi President Barham Salih and Kurdish leader Nechirvan Barzani. 

Although climate change and environmental stewardship lead the agenda here, a survey of chief executives released Monday shows that they do not count climate change as among the top 10 threats to business growth.

The financial services group PwC said climate change and environmental issues are ranked as the 11th-biggest threat to their companies’ growth prospects, the Associated Press reported. Trade conflicts and lack of skilled workers ranked higher.

The survey also found that 53 percent of CEOs predict a decline in the rate of growth this year, nearly double the percentage who said the same last year and a mark of how the trade conflict between the United States and China has soured business confidence.

Trump, however, painted a sunny picture Tuesday and invited global investment in the United States. He suggested that other nations would benefit from his approach to deregulation, but said, “You have to run your countries the way you want.”

He said he had confronted “predatory” Chinese trade practices and asserted that his tariffs, denounced by many of the CEOs and economists in the audience, have worked exactly as intended.

“No one did anything about it except allowing it to keep getting worse and worse and worse” before he took office, Trump said.

He said that the U.S. relationship with China has never been better, and that his personal bond with Chinese President Xi Jinping is a big reason.

“He’s for China, I’m for the U.S., but other than that we love each other,” Trump said to chuckles.

He received louder applause when he announced that the United States will join an initiative begun here to add 1 trillion trees worldwide.

Trump’s 2018 visit to the World Economic Forum came just days after he signed a bill lowering the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent — a move that will save businesses billions of dollars.

He largely steered clear of discussing domestic political issues during his speech to the forum in 2018, instead using his remarks to tout his accomplishments and encourage business leaders to invest in the United States. He did take a brief swipe at “the opposing party,” pointing out that “some of the people in the room” supported Democrats over him in 2016. He also drew a smattering of boos when he attacked the news media as “fake.”

This year, two leading contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination, Sens. Bernie Sanders (Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (Mass.), have sparked growing alarm among the global elite with calls for a major restructuring of the economic system that they say has been skewed to benefit the wealthy.

Trump, who has made attacking “socialism” part of his reelection message, could find a receptive audience as he seeks to defend capitalism and tout his economic record to a group of business leaders. The president has regularly credited his administration with boosting the bottom lines of the country’s largest companies, occasionally bragging to top executives that he had made them very rich. More than 100 billionaires are on the official attendee list for the World Economic Forum, and Trump plans to meet with the heads of several multinational companies during his brief stay in Davos.

______

Heather Long contributed to this report.

*********

Climate Change Takes Center Stage in Davos

With businesses under pressure to act, solutions are emerging, but not fast enough, some participants fear.

By Stanley Reed | Published Jan. 20, 2020 | New York Times | Posted January 21, 2020 |

Even before catastrophic fires broke out in Australia in late fall, climate change was at the top of the list of priorities at the 50th anniversary of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, this week.

But those fires — preceded by others in California — along with rising sea levels, flooding and supercharged storms, are putting more pressure on the politicians, business executives, financiers, thought leaders and others who attend to show they are part of the solution to one of the world’s most pressing challenges.

In a nod to a younger generation most at risk and demanding action on climate change, Greta Thunberg, the Swedish teenager who has become a prominent environmental activist, is scheduled to appear. In a column this month in The Guardian that she wrote with other environmental activists, they demanded an end to investments in fossil fuels.

“Anything less than immediately ceasing these investments in the fossil fuel industry would be a betrayal of life itself,” they said. “Today’s business as usual is turning into a crime against humanity. We demand that leaders play their part in putting an end to this madness.”

Daniel Yergin, the oil historian and a regular attendee at the Davos forum, agreed that “climate is going to loom larger than ever before.” And Ian Bremmer, founder and president of the political risk firm Eurasia Group, said: “These issues are becoming more real, more salient every day, whether you are talking about Venice or California or Australia or Jakarta. These are real events with enormous direct human and economic costs.”

But an overriding question as the Davos gathering gets underway is: Will all the talk matter?

Mr. Bremmer, who plans to attend, said the forum could help force change because it brings together big players, like chief executives of banks, money management firms and hedge funds, who are rethinking their investments. Gradually — some say too gradually — financial firms are directing money away from oil companies and others associated with carbon-dioxide emissions blamed for environmental damage.

Financial institutions “see the future coming, and they are changing the way they invest,” Mr. Bremmer said. “That is going to require multinational corporations to act differently; it will lead to new corporations that will do better.”

While thinking on climate change may be shifting, by some metrics the corporate elite that always makes up a large contingent at Davos still has a lot of work to do. According to a study published in December by the Davos organizers, only a quarter of a group of 7,000 businesses are setting a specific emissions reduction target and only an eighth are actually reducing their emissions each year.

If so, they are making a major strategic error, according to Mark Carney, the departing governor of the Bank of England who planned to be in Davos. Companies that work to bring their emissions to zero “will be rewarded handsomely,” Mr. Carney said in a recent speech. “Those that fail to adapt will cease to exist.”

Some people in the financial industry said that environmental issues were being given greater weight in investment decisions despite setbacks like President Trump’s decision to pull the United States out of the Paris agreement on climate change. The president, who shunned the gathering in Davos last year, said he would go this time.

The number of people who are talking about fossil fuels as a real concern “has increased dramatically over the last 12 to 24 months,” said Jeff McDermott, chief executive of Greentech Capital, an investment bank focused on low-carbon technologies. “They are both looking at the risks of high-carbon companies and industries as well as the returns available from low-carbon alternatives.”

Mr. McDermott said that Davos was a good venue for sifting through such ideas. The conference organizers are also pushing an environmental agenda that supports an ecologist’s notion of persuading the world to plant a trillion trees to soak up carbon dioxide and prodding companies to announce ambitious targets for lowering their emissions.

Potentially, enormous sums could be used to influence corporate behavior. For instance, Climate Action 100+ said investors with around $35 trillion in assets had signed on to its program for pushing companies toward greater disclosure and action on emissions.

“I believe we are on the edge of a fundamental reshaping of finance,”  wrote Laurence D. Fink, chief executive of BlackRock, which has nearly $7 trillion under management, in a letter vowing to put sustainability at the core of the firm’s investment approach.

Many likely targets of investor and environmental initiatives may be available at the gathering at the Swiss resort. Among them are the chiefs of the world’s major oil companies, including Royal Dutch Shell, BP, Chevron and Saudi Aramco, who are expected to attend.

In recent months, some of these companies, especially those based in Europe, have been responding to the concerns of investors and other constituents with commitments to reduce their emissions or make investments in other environmentally friendly technology.

Repsol, the Spanish oil company,  pledged last month to cut its emissions to zero by 2050 through a combination of actions, including more investments in renewable electricity like wind and solar and, possibly, reforestation. And BP, the London-based oil company, said it was forming a business with other companies for recycling a type of plastic known as PET that is used in soft drink bottles and packaging. In the latest of these pledges, Equinor, the Norwegian company, said it would reduce emissions from its oil and gas fields and plants in its home country to near zero by 2050 by using electricity in its operations and other measures.

Mr. Yergin, who is also vice chairman of IHS Markit, a research firm, said that “energy transition” would be the “two most spoken words at Davos” about the sector.

Marco Alverà, chief executive of Snam,  an Italian natural gas company, plans to talk about recent experiments in mixing hydrogen, a fuel that does not produce carbon emissions, with the natural gas that the company delivers to users, potentially lowering their climate impact. Mr. Alverà said he was going to Davos because he thought it would be a “powerful forum” to make his points.

“I don’t think we will solve the climate challenge with taxes or a radical change in consumer behavior,” he said. “I think we can only solve it with business ideas that make business sense.”

The chemical industry, another sector that is integral to modern economies and a target for environmentalists, also plans to make its case at Davos.

A group of about 20 large chemical companies is working on low-carbon technologies, like making chemicals from carbon dioxide and biomass, said Martin Brudermuller, chief executive of the German chemical company BASF.

Mr. Brudermuller also said another large coalition in the sector was working on the plastic waste problem, with BASF turning discarded plastic into raw materials for its plants. Mr. Brudermuller cautioned that such problems, which involve not only new technologies but also organizing the collection and sorting of waste, are so complex and globe-spanning that only an effort of similar scope will succeed in solving them.

“A collaborative effort of companies, governmental and nongovernmental organizations as well as civil society is necessary to address the global challenge of mismanaged waste,” Mr. Brudermuller wrote in an email.

Awareness of these issue may be growing, but with global emissions continuing to rise governments are falling short on tackling them, according to a pre-conference report issued by the World Economic Forum. Many businesses, too, are failing to set effective targets, the report said. In 2006, Nicholas Stern was the chief author of a seminal study for the British government that set out the case for acting on climate change. More than a decade later, as he prepared to attend the 50th gathering in Davos, Lord Stern, chairman of the Grantham Institute at the London School of Economics, said there were reasons to be encouraged and to worry.

He said that the costs of wind and solar technology had fallen much more rapidly than anticipated. Electric vehicles, he said, were also making more rapid progress than expected, with most automakers talking about the end of the era of the internal combustion engine.

Such advances, he said, are opening attractive opportunities for investors and creating jobs.

He also said the growing activism of young people was crucial in pushing their elders to enact change. “Business people really feel that,” including those who attend Davos, he said, adding that he hoped such pressures would push companies into making commitments on emissions reduction at the meeting.

On the other hand, he said that the world had been slow to act and each report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations agency that tracks emissions, was more worrying than the last.

“I am really optimistic about what it is possible to do,” he said. “But I worry deeply about whether we will.”

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IN DAVOS, A SEARCH FOR MEANING WITH CAPITALISM IN CRISIS

By Ishaan Tharoor | Published January 20 at 9:35 AM EST | Washington Post | Posted January 21, 2020 |

DAVOS, Switzerland — The World Economic Forum, the most concentrated gathering of wealth and power on the planet, will begin once again amid a natural fortress of snow and ice in the Swiss Alps. President Trump is jetting in for a scheduled address Tuesday. Dozens of other world leaders are in attendance; a who’s who list of CEOs, fund managers, oligarchs and a smattering of celebrities will join the throngs cramming the pop-up pavilions and swanky hotel parties of the otherwise sleepy mountain town.

This year’s conclave will be the 50th since it began in 1971, marking a fitful half century of political turmoil and economic boom and bust. For years, Davos — that is, the conference of global leaders for which it has become synonymous — has represented the apotheosis of a particular world view: an almost Promethean belief in the virtues of liberalism and globalization, anchored in a conviction that heads of companies can become capable and even moral custodians of the common good.

The disruptions and traumas of the past decade have sorely tested Davos’s faith in itself. The archetypal Davos Man — the well-heeled, jet-setting “globalist” — has become an object of derision and distrust for both the political left and right. Financial crises, surging nationalist populism in the West, China’s intensifying authoritarianism and the steady toll of climate change have convinced many that there’s nothing inexorable about liberal progress. A new global opinion poll of tens of thousands of people found that more than 50 percent of those surveyed now think capitalism does "more harm than good."

Each year, the forum is accompanied by an unsurprising airing of cynicism in the media. “It is [a] family reunion for the people who, in my view, broke the modern world,” Anand Giradharadas, an author and outspoken critic of billionaire philanthropy, said in a TV interview last year. Can Davos “keep its mojo?” the Economist asked over the weekend. “Once a beacon of international cooperation, Davos has become a punchline,” the New York Times noted.

Klaus Schwab, the forum’s octogenarian founder and executive chairman, is convinced that the current moment needs more Davos, not less. In the run-up to this week’s meetings, he announced a new “Davos manifesto,” calling on companies to “pay their fair share of taxes, show zero tolerance for corruption, uphold human rights throughout their global supply chains, and advocate for a competitive level playing field.” Such an ethos, Schwab contends, will go a long way to redressing the world’s inequities and may help governments meet the climate targets set by the 2015 Paris agreement.

“Business leaders now have an incredible opportunity,” Schwab wrote in a column published last month. “By giving stakeholder capitalism concrete meaning, they can move beyond their legal obligations and uphold their duty to society.”

Schwab’s extolling of “stakeholder” capitalism — a riposte to the profit-maximizing Western orthodoxy of “shareholder” capitalism — is supposed to be a call to action. Activists, though, may argue that it’s not enough.

In a study timed in conjunction with the World Economic Forum, Oxfam found the world’s billionaires control more wealth than 4.6 billion people, or 60 percent of humanity. “Another year, another indication that the inequality crisis is spiraling out of control. And despite repeated warnings about inequality, governments have not reversed its course,” said Paul O’Brien of Oxfam America in an emailed statement. “Some governments, especially the U.S., are actually exacerbating inequality by cutting taxes for the richest and for corporations while slashing public services and safety nets — such as health care and education — that actually fight inequality.”

And some Davos attendees concur. “The economic pie is bigger than it’s ever been before in history, which means we could make everyone better off, but we’ve chosen as a society to leave a lot of people behind,” Erik Brynjolfsson, director of the MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy, told my colleague Heather Long. “That’s not just inexcusable morally but is also really bad tactically.”

Reading from a totally different script, President Trump is expected to wax lyrical about the success of his economic and trade policies. In the past, his bullying measures and fondness for tariffs have ruffled the Davos set.

“Although the president has been inconsistent in how he has carried out his worldview, he has made clear that he has no plans to back away from his strong-arm tactics even as they have increasingly antagonized American friends and foes alike, leaving the United States potentially more isolated on the world stage,” wrote my colleagues Anne Gearan and John Hudson.

Trump is also likely to be challenged in Davos by a growing cohort of climate activists and policymakers. On the same day of his speech, Swedish teen campaigner Greta Thunberg is expected to berate politicians and finance executives who still invest in fossil fuels. Although Trump almost certainly will not heed Thunberg’s call, representatives of major companies attending the forum are desperate to show how they are adapting their business models to accommodate climate concerns.

Two years ago, Schwab drew criticism for what was viewed as an awkwardly ingratiating speech to welcome Trump to the forum. Now, he’s more at odds with the U.S. president, not least on the urgency of the climate crisis.

“We do not want to reach the tipping point of irreversibility on climate change,” Schwab told reporters last week. “We do not want the next generations to inherit a world which becomes ever more hostile and ever less habitable.”

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Trump Focuses on Economy at Davos, Seeking a Counter to Impeachment

President Trump made his first appearance on the international stage since the House sent impeachment articles to the Senate, on the day his trial is set to begin in earnest.

By Annie Karni | Published Jan. 21, 2020 Updated 7:01 a.m. ET | New York Times | Posted January 21, 2020 |

DAVOS, Switzerland — Before the Senate impeachment trial began in earnest on Tuesday, President Trump was more than 4,000 miles away from Washington, in this glitzy Alpine village, driving a competing narrative — one that had nothing to do with pressure on Ukraine, abuse of power or obstruction of Congress.

In his first appearance on the international stage since Speaker Nancy Pelosi sent articles of impeachment to the Senate, before the senators who will decide his fate even arrive at the Capitol building, Mr. Trump addressed the World Economic Forum, focusing on the success of the global economy — and taking credit for it.

“America’s economy was in a rather dismal state,” Mr. Trump said. “Before my presidency began, the outlook for many economies was bleak.” In fact, the economy’s recovery after its plummet was central to President Barack Obama’s legacy.

But Mr. Trump called the growth under his leadership a “roaring geyser of opportunity,” and proclaimed that “the American dream is back bigger better and stronger than ever before.”

In his 30-minute address in front of a global audience, Mr. Trump did not mention the impeachment trial back home. But he delivered what amounted to a version of his campaign speech minus the red meat to his base, speaking little of international alliances other than touting America’s supremacy in the world.

Mr. Trump highlighted the first phase of his trade deal with China and another with Mexico and Canada, accomplishments he thinks are being overshadowed by a focus on an impeachment trial he is trying to dismiss as a “hoax.” And the audience appeared receptive — to his face, at least — having warmed to him over the past two years because they have benefited from his policies.

“Lev Parnas is not a topic of conversation at Davos,” said Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group, a political research and consulting firm.

Mr. Parnas, an associate of Mr. Trump’s personal lawyer, Rudolph W. Giuliani, has been on a nonstop media tour over the past week, asserting that Mr. Trump was fully aware of the pressure campaign to force Ukraine to investigate Mr. Trump’s political rivals. Democrats have not ruled out trying to call him as a witness.

The open question, as always with Mr. Trump, was how much he would stray from his script and the escape offered by the world stage, and vent his grievances about his legal and political predicament at home. But in his morning address, he stuck largely to his prepared remarks, claiming that his approach was “centered entirely on the well-being of the American worker.”

The president also took a swipe at people demanding action on climate change, the lead agenda item at this year’s conference. Mr. Trump announced that the United States would join the 1 trillion trees initiative launched at the World Economic Forum. But he also declared that “we must reject the perennial prophets of doom.”

Former Vice President Al Gore, who attended Mr. Trump’s speech, declined to comment on his remarks.

It was not clear whether Mr. Trump would try to stage a surprise meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, who is also attending the international forum, even though officials said the optics of such a meeting would be unhelpful to Mr. Trump.

In Davos, however, Mr. Trump may find the right audience for support if he sticks with efforts to counter the impeachment narrative at home. There was less anxiety rippling through the one percent set about him on Tuesday than there had been when he first arrived at the annual forum two years ago, fresh off an “America First” campaign filled with promises to rip up international agreements and alliances.

This time, there’s more concern about some of the progressive Democrats running to replace him. Through regulatory rollbacks, tax cuts and the success of the global economy, the president who ran as a populist has benefited many of the chief executives gathered here, even those who have taken public positions against some of his policies.

“There are lot of masters of the universe who think he may not be their cup of tea, but he’s been a godsend,” Mr. Bremmer added. “It’s interesting to hear Mike Bloomberg saying he would fund Bernie Sanders’s campaign if he won the nomination. Very few people here would say that.”

Mr. Bloomberg, the billionaire former mayor of New York City, who is himself running for president, has said he is open to spending $1 billion to defeat Mr. Trump, whoever emerges as the Democratic nominee.

During Mr. Trump’s colorful career in New York real estate, entertainment and business, he never cracked the Davos set, whose Fortune 500 chief executives dismissed him as something of a gaudy sideshow.

But the balance of power has shifted. And with progressives like Mr. Sanders and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts emerging as top-tier candidates in the Democratic primary, a crowd that once rejected Mr. Trump is now more willing to consider him one of their own.

Mr. Trump has happily embraced them back. When he signed an agreement at the White House for the United States-China trade deal, for instance, Mr. Trump credited himself with helping big banks and business.

“I made a lot of bankers look very good,” he said, and told attendees to send his regards to Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase.

There are however, still major points of contention ahead during the love-to-hate-it conference for Mr. Trump, who plans to spend almost two days here in bilateral meetings with leaders of Iraq, Pakistan and the Kurdish regional government, as well as sitdowns with corporate chieftains. (The forum is also Mr. Trump’s first trip abroad since the drone attack that killed Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, Iran’s most important military official.)

Global warming and climate change top the agenda items for the conference. A star speaker on Tuesday, alongside Mr. Trump, is the 16-year-old climate activist Greta Thunberg, who has said she wouldn’t “waste her time” speaking to Mr. Trump about climate change.

Mr. Trump withdrew from the Paris Climate Accord, and his administration has expanded the use of coal, downplayed concerns about climate change and rolled back environmental protections.

The president mocked Ms. Thunberg, who has Asperger’s syndrome, a condition on the autism spectrum, after she was chosen as Time magazines  Person of the Year. “So ridiculous,” Mr. Trump tweeted. “Greta must work on her anger management problem, then go to a good old fashioned movie with a friend! Chill Greta, Chill!”

Attendees at the conference said they fully expected Mr. Trump to take another whack at her while she was here.

In 2018, Mr. Trump was the first sitting president to attend the forum since President Bill Clinton did so in 2000. Last year, he abruptly canceled his plans to attend, citing a partial government shutdown.

This year, the administration delegation includes Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, as well as Robert Lighthizer, the trade representative. Other members of the administration who were expected to attend the forum were Wilbur Ross, the commerce secretary; Elaine Chao, the transportation secretary, and Eugene Scalia, the labor secretary.

Mr. Trump was also expected to be joined in Davos by his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and his daughter Ivanka Trump, both senior White House advisers.

*********

Ms. Thunberg is the only adult in the room speaking truth to power. Greta is not an extremist, although her demands will be portrayed as extreme. Unfortunately for all of us, she’s a realist. It’s past time to pay lip service to the problem of climate change and global warming, because, as Greta so often says, our house is indeed on fire.

Greta Thunberg’s Message at Davos Forum: ‘Our House Is Still on Fire’

By Somini Sengupta, Reporting from the World Economic Forum in Davos | Published Jan. 21, 2020 Updated 9:45 a.m. ET | New York Times | Posted January 21, 2020 |

DAVOS, Switzerland — Greta Thunberg on Tuesday punched a hole in the promises emerging from a forum of the global political and business elite and offered instead an ultimatum: Stop investing in fossil fuels immediately, or explain to your children why you did not protect them from the “climate chaos” you created.

“I wonder, what will you tell your children was the reason to fail and leave them facing the climate chaos you knowingly brought upon them?” Ms. Thunberg, 17, said at the annual gathering of the world’s rich and powerful in Davos, a village on the icy reaches of the Swiss Alps.

Her remarks opened a panel discussion hosted by The New York Times and the World Economic Forum. The full transcript is available here.

“Our house is still on fire,” she added, reprising her most famous line from an address last year at the forum. “Your inaction is fueling the flames by the hour.”

Her remarks came at a time when climate change and environmental sustainability rose to the top of the talking points of many of the executives and government leaders assembled at Davos.

Ms. Thunberg, a climate activist known for speaking bluntly to power, rebuked the crowd for promises that she said would do too little: reducing planet-warming gases to net zero by 2050, offsetting emissions by planting one trillion trees, transitioning to a low-carbon economy.

“Let’s be clear. We don’t need a ‘low carbon economy.’ We don’t need to ‘lower emissions,’” she said. “Our emissions have to stop.”

Only that, she said, would enable the world to keep temperatures from rising past 1.5 degrees from preindustrial levels, which scientists say is necessary to avert the worst effects of climate change. She and a group of young climate activists have called on private investors and governments to immediately halt exploration for fossil fuels, to stop funding their production, to end taxpayer subsidies for the industry and to fully divest their existing stakes in the sector.

Scientists have said emissions must be reduced by half in the next decade to reach the 1.5-degree target. The opposite is happening. Global emissions continued to rise, hitting a record high in 2019, according to research published in December.

Her address began barely an hour after President Trump’s speech at the forum, which barely mentioned climate change, except to implicitly describe climate activists as “heirs of yesterday’s foolish fortune tellers.” Ms. Thunberg did not address him directly, except to remind the audience that the United States will withdraw from the Paris climate agreement by the end of this year.

Ms. Thunberg took pains to distance herself from politics. “This is not about right or left. We couldn’t care less about your party politics,” she said. “From a sustainability perspective, the right, the left as well as the center have all failed. No political ideology or economic structure has been able to tackle the climate and environmental emergency.”

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#trumpism #trump administration #president donald trump #trump news #trump #Davos #davos 2020 #climatechangeisreal #climateaction #climate change #climate crisis #climate news #climate emergency #world news #worldpolitics #international news #national security #national news #impeach trump #trump impeachment #u.s. news #us politics #politics #politics and government #republican politics #republican party #republicans #top news #top stories google news #nyt > top stories

[taylorscottbarnett]

Deficits and Degenerates

Well, Friday the US posted it's largest one-month budget defict ever.

Remember back, oh a decade or ago when Republicans howled about Obama blowing up the deficit, after Bush spent trillions on Iraq, AND caused the damn recession Obama and Democrats had to spend time and money FIXING. But deficits bad, Obama bad.

Now of course after once again promising that tax cuts will pay for themselves -- literally fake news the GOP have been spewing for decades -- the deficit is rising AND the "ecconomic boom" the tax cuts where supposed to usher in America's next golden age have faltered.

Any outcry from Conservatives about the federal debt and the defict now? No? Funny that.

Ryan spent most of his career shouting from the rooftops of Capitol Hill with a megaphone that runaway deficits and debt were going to ruin the country. It would crowd out investment, people wouldn't lend us money.

And now the federal debt is $21.97 trillion and rising. Crickets from Paul Ryan. Mitch McConnell. Donald Trump. Rand Paul. Or literally ANY GOP voters who inspired the Tea-party movement with the crap stubt of "Taxed Enough Already".

Nevermind the fact that nearly a third of the debt is owed to, well us, government borrowing from different government agencies (like taking cash out of Social Security and Medicare GOP).

Last time I checked as well as over a trillion or so dollars owed to state governments, private pension plans and cities -- in the US mind you.

Or the trillion or so owed to US Corporations based in the US. (People don't buy US Debt to make a profit, they buy it as a hedge against risky debt like stock).

That's one of the same reasons you'd have money invested in a Certificate of Deposit at your bank -- it's safe money, although it's very, very little growth. I took out a 10 year CD for an IRA in, oh 2011 (because it had the highest rate, and I didn't yet know much about the federal reserve's rates) I get about, oh 1.02% compounded quarterly. But I didn't have the funds to diversify into a stock portfolio based IRA, a CD was my only real option. Inflation technically eats away my earnings on that investment. It's worth less in real dollar terms than when I put the money in it to begin with.

People buy US Debt to hedge against stocks, junk bonds, or stocks like, oh, Macy's that have fallen from highs in years past.

In 2011 Macy's traded at about $31/share, it's at $23 now, kmart had stock in the $15-20 range in the 90's, that's about $27 adjusted for inflation. It's oh, 0.90/share now.

October 27th 2006, Office Depot traded at $41.26 a share (52.48 in 2019 dollars). Today? $3.52 so if your company retirement portfolio had Office Depo stock in 2010, they'd likely buy US Treasury Bonds, to offset the risk of a price fall in it's shares.

As of December 31, 2018, debt held by the public was $16.1 trillion and intragovernmental holdings (again, money the government literly owes to itself) were $5.87 trillion, for a total or "National Debt" of $21.97 trillion.

Remember when I said US debt is taken as a hedge against other investments? I ment that. Since oh around 2010, the U.S. Treasury has been getting negative real interest rates on government debt, meaning the inflation rate is greater than the interest rate paid on the debt.

That means people are more or less paying the US Government for the privilege of holding US Debt. Because it's THAT good of a hedge against a future that's difficult to plan out 10, 20, 30, 40+ years from now. (The fact that the US Dollar is the world reserve currency also helps our debt issues).

So just remember, when Conservatives, politicians, voters, all of them, tell you they are concerned with the national debt, they're either LYING, or DONT KNOW ANYTHING about what they are talking about.

The point of cutting taxes, is and always has been for Conservatives, aka the GOP, about buying businesses support, and strangling the government of needed funds so they can cut "entitlements" a.k.a Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, college grants, the EPA, all those socialist, liberal programs they hate.

#politics #trump #us debt #deficits #republicans #democrats #tax cuts

[jennywboman]

Bitcoin’s new use case? A report card for how the US handles the dollar

Bitcoin’s new use case? A report card for how the US handles the dollar:

Throughout the center of March, many Americans acquired stimulus checks from the authorities, and whereas the funds — $1,400 for each U.S. citizen incomes lower than $80,000 yearly — will probably be a blessing for tens of millions in determined financial straits on account of the COVID-19 disaster, it has raised once more the specter of inflation. And as with many different issues, this too has a Bitcoin (BTC) angle.

On March 15, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz proposed on NBC’s Squawk Box a new function for Bitcoin in mild of latest stimulus measures — as “a report card for how citizens think the government is doing managing their finances.” If folks imagine that U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen et. al. can safely land this “giant supertanker” that’s fiscal and financial stimulus, stated Novogratz, then “people will stop moving into Bitcoin.” But for now, “we’re in uncharted territories in how much money we’re printing, and Bitcoin is a report card on that.”

Podcaster Preston Pysh urged one thing comparable a number of days earlier in response to the information that the U.S. House of Representatives had handed the $1.9-trillion COVID reduction bundle: “Think of #Bitcoin like a manipulation gauge.”

What is one to make of this? A new and thrilling use case for the world’s first cryptocurrency — i.e., as a type of a suggestions software for financial policymakers? Or simply one other fantasy of Bitcoin maximalists?

“No evidence” that Bitcoin is a hedge

David Yermack, a professor of finance at New York University’s Leonard N. Stern School of Business, rejected the notion that BTC might function a “report card” for governments, telling Cointelegraph: “There’s no evidence that Bitcoin provides a hedge against movements in sovereign currency.” He added that “when one looks at large samples for research purposes, evidence has been very hard to find in a statistically rigorous sense.”

Bitcoin is way too imprecise of a measure, others say. If inflation rises 2.4% over the course of the yr, as the Federal Reserve not too long ago forecast, will BTC’s worth additionally rise 2.4% — or some fixed a number of thereof? Or conversely, if the Fed tightens up the cash provide, tamping down inflation, will BTC’s worth additionally fall in step? BTC mainly must be extremely correlated with the inflation fee to be helpful as a suggestions software, and that appears unlikely.

“The surge of liquidity from the Fed has fueled gains in virtually all major asset classes, with some pure speculative plays such as Bitcoin benefiting even more,” Eswar Prasad, a professor of economics at Cornell University and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, advised Cointelegraph, including:

“It is unlikely that Bitcoin prices will be seen as a reliable guide of any sort for monetary policy, particularly since it is traded in a relatively thin market that seems subject to manipulation and speculative waves.”

Novogratz mustered some assist for his speculation, nonetheless — on Twitter at any fee. On Feb. 28, he took an off-the-cuff survey, asking: “Is $BTC a report card on monetary and fiscal policy?” When the 3,000-plus votes had been tallied, 70.8% answered “yes,” and 29.2% replied “no.”

Nik Bhatia, creator of the guide Layered Money: From Gold and Dollars to Bitcoin and Central Bank Digital Currencies and adjunct professor of finance and enterprise economics at the University of Southern California, advised Cointelegraph that one has to separate fiscal stimulus from financial stimulus.

According to him, In the quick time period, there may be clearly a optimistic relationship between fiscalstimulus and the worth of Bitcoin. When folks have new stimulus checks of their pockets, they’re extra possible to purchase Bitcoin, which can enhance the worth of BTC. Indeed, a latest Mizuho Securities survey stated U.S. stimulus checks might increase the market cap of Bitcoin by as a lot as 3% — although this survey had a small pattern measurement.

In any occasion, It’s tougher to indicate the connection between financial stimulus and BTC, continued Bhatia. In the long run, most Bitcoinists most likely imagine that there’s a optimistic correlation between financial stimulus and BTC — that’s, folks alarmed by stimulus-created inflation will search a haven in BTC, “but it is impossible to prove.” In Bhatia’s view, the motive that BTC’s worth is rising now — and can proceed to take action — is the cryptocurrency’s “growing dominance in the international monetary system,” he advised Cointelegraph.

A retailer of worth and funding asset

While some say Bitcoin might not have any quick future on this one particular use case — as a gauge for financial coverage — it nonetheless has different associated use circumstances, together with “insurance against unhinged monetary policy and outright wealth segregation in some countries,” as Ark Investment Management’s Cathie Wood said not too long ago at a Bloomberg occasion.

Wood added that BTC was gaining rising recognition from establishments as an funding asset class, and it would even change bonds in the conventional 60/40 shares/bonds mannequin portfolio, a view echoed by podcaster Graham Stephan, who anticipated a new mannequin portfolio alongside the strains of 70% invested in shares, 15% in bonds and 15% in BTC sometime.

Scott Freeman, co-founder and companion of JST Capital, advised Cointelegraph: “We do see that there are more traditional investors who view BTC as a hedge against undisciplined monetary policy. We’ve seen that this has already driven demand in third-world countries, and we expect this to be a self-fulfilling prophecy as more people buy into this thesis.”

But that is completely different from a report card or a manipulation gauge that attaches a quantity or a grade to a authorities’s efficiency. BTC remains to be too unstable and thinly traded to be helpful for that at current, Freeman opined, including:

“I think BTC will be more of a lagging indicator of the lack of faith in monetary policy, at least in the short term. Though, what we’ve all learned over the past years is that it is a bad bet to underestimate the growth of BTC and its effect on global financial markets.”

Times are altering

It’s price remembering, too, as Jeff Dorman, chief funding officer of Arca, advised Cointelegraph, that since the United States embraced an “aggressive monetary policy” in 2009, traders have been wanting for methods to hedge towards inflation. They’ve tried shopping for gold, and in addition shorting treasuries and/or European authorities bonds. “None of the traditional methods have worked,” stated Dorman, including: “Bitcoin has been the only winner for the past decade.”

Recent authorities stimulus measures most likely strengthen the argument for Bitcoin, Dorman continued, however BTC has made little influence upon policymakers as a consequence of its “small size and limited touch size.” But the occasions are altering. This previous week, Deutsche Bank analysts declared that Bitcoin had grown “too important to ignore,” and with so many several types of traders gravitating to BTC now — banks, brokerages, insurance coverage firms, hedge funds, company treasurers, people — Dorman stated:

“They have no choice but to pay attention. So, I don’t think Bitcoin is a report card, nor driving any policy decisions — but if it continues to penetrate all facets of finance, then it will become a gauge that needs to be monitored.”

Use circumstances can’t be compelled

But if BTC isn’t but a gauge or suggestions loop, what’s? How is one to acknowledge if governments are shedding their grip? There’s at all times the conventional inflation indexes, equivalent to the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index — ie., the official measures — Mauro F. Guillén, Zandman professor of worldwide administration at the Wharton School, advised Cointelegraph, the place “anything above 3%–4% starts to be a problem.” He added:

“Cryptos are very small right now compared to the trillions and trillions of dollars in circulation. Moreover, they are just an investable asset. They are not yet used as a generalized form of payment or as a unit of account.”

In quick, provided that Bitcoin is simply 12 years previous, unstable and owned by just one.3% of the world’s inhabitants (maybe), anticipating that it may turn out to be a report card on authorities financial coverage appears untimely.

BTC immediately is a promising retailer of worth, a rising funding asset class, and in the future, it could produce other makes use of, together with as a medium of change and/or unit of account, however these future use circumstances will emerge organically and possibly can’t be compelled.

Read More at cointelegraph.com

source https://infomagzine.tumblr.com/post/646309839471083520

[orbemnews]

The Fed Meets Against a Revamped Economic Backdrop: Live Updates Here’s what you need to know: Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, at a press conference in January 2020, just before the coronavirus pandemic struck the American economy.Credit…Mandel Ngan/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images The Federal Reserve is staring down a challenge that would have been all but unthinkable a year ago: With its policies set on emergency mode to bolster growth in the face of the pandemic’s shock, it must now navigate an economy that is expected to strengthen rapidly in the coming months. Officials will release an interest rate policy decision and their first economic projections of 2021 at 2 p.m. on Wednesday, and they are virtually certain to leave borrowing costs unchanged at near zero. But analysts and Wall Street investors alike are eager to see whether growing economic optimism will shake up the outlook for policy in the months and years ahead. The Fed slashed interest rates to rock bottom a year ago as the pandemic shut down huge swaths of the economy. It has also been buying $120 billion in bonds per month, a policy meant to keep credit cheap and help the economy rebound from a virus that has thrown millions out of work. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, has been clear for months that officials expect to be patient in removing that policy help — a cautious tone that he is expected to maintain at a news conference on Wednesday. “This is one of the most critical Fed meetings we’ve had in a while,” said Michelle Meyer, head of U.S. economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “Markets are really paying attention, and they’re going to dissect everything he says.” That’s because the economic backdrop is shifting. Coronavirus vaccines are fueling hopes for reopening parts of the service sector. A freshly signed stimulus package will pump $1.9 trillion into the economy, with an eye on preventing evictions, funneling cash to parents and putting $1,400 checks directly into bank accounts. Against that improving backdrop, economists in a Bloomberg survey expect the Fed to increase rates twice in 2023, the news outlet reported. In December, they typically expected rates to remain on hold until 2024 or later. As investors expect faster growth, higher inflation and a quicker-moving Fed, they have pushed up the yield on 10-year Treasury notes. That has weighed on stock indexes, which tend to fall when rates rise. The Fed’s economic projections — which anonymously report officials’ forecasts for interest rates, unemployment, inflation and growth both through 2023 and in the longer run — could show a shift when they are released on Wednesday. Wall Street will pay particular attention to the inflation forecast and the policy rate path. The Fed’s median interest rate forecast previously showed no rate increases over the next three years, but analysts expect that officials could now pencil in one move in 2023. Wall Street has been paying close attention to the outlook for inflation in recent weeks. Key price indexes are expected to bounce back after weak readings last year, and some economists have warned that big government spending could keep them elevated. That could put a spotlight on Federal Reserve officials’ inflation estimates, and on anything that Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, says about the outlook during his news conference after the central bank’s meeting on Wednesday. The Fed is trying to use its policies to coax the economy back to full employment while lifting and stabilizing inflation, which has been slipping in recent decades. It wants to hit 2 percent annual price gains on average, and it has pledged not to raise rates from near zero until they are poised to hum along at a slightly faster pace for some time. But some prominent onlookers have warned that the economy could overheat. They say inflation may jump well above the 2 percent average target, thanks to government outlays and booming demand in a reopening economy. Fed officials have been consistently less concerned about that possibility, and will give an up-to-date snapshot of their own expectations in their first Summary of Economic Projections of 2021. The last set of estimates, released in December, showed inflation stabilizing at 2 percent. “How much do they revise up inflation? That’s something I’ll be looking for,” said Seth Carpenter, chief U.S. economist at UBS and a former Fed employee. Analysts broadly expect price gains to accelerate in the coming months for a mechanical reason: The data are about to lap very weak readings from last spring. The most closely watched inflation measures are compared against the same month a year earlier, a recipe for an automatic increase. But Fed leaders have been clear that a short-lived bounce is not what they’re talking about when they say they want to see quicker increases. “There’s a difference between a one-time surge in prices and ongoing inflation,” Mr. Powell said this month. Keith Gill, known as Roaring Kitty, testified at the House Financial Service Committee’s first GameStop hearing.Credit…House Financial Services Committee The House Financial Services Committee is holding its second hearing on the GameStop frenzy on Wednesday, with a range of experts expected to expound on what the saga says about the stock market’s plumbing. The hearing appears likely to have a more wonkish tone than the committee’s first hearing on GameStop, which put a spotlight on Robinhood, the trading app at the center of a remarkable rally that sent shares of the struggling video game retailer up by over 1,600 percent in January, Witnesses will include stock exchange officials, market analysts, former regulators and academics. Prepared testimony suggests the witnesses will focus on what — if any — deficiencies in the American stock trading system were revealed by the surge of trading in GameStop. Sal Arnuk, co-founder of trading firm Themis Trading, plans to spotlight the growing role of payment-for-order-flow, where retail brokerage houses such as Robinhood channel customer orders to specific trading firms in exchange for payments. “These practices create a massive incentive for such brokers to sell their clients orders to sophisticated trading firms uniquely tooled to profit off of them,” Mr. Arnuk will say, according to preliminary testimony released by the House committee. “This is a needless conflict that can harm retail investors, and it degrades the integrity of the market ecosystem as a whole.” Other witnesses, such as Alexis Goldstein, a senior policy analyst at Americans for Financial Reform, will underscore the growing dominance of the trading firms that pay retail brokerages to execute their orders. Two major market-makers, Citadel Securities and Virtu Financial, “execute a larger volume of U.S. stocks than the New York Stock Exchange,” she said in prepared testimony, urging regulators to look at whether their growth has worsened the prices that are available to investors on the public exchanges. The hearing is to begin at 10 a.m. Other participants include Michael Blaugrund, chief operating officer of the New York Stock Exchange; Vicki L. Bogan, a Cornell University professor who focuses on the financial and investment behavior of households; Dennis Kelleher, the chief executive officer of Better Markets, which advocates for market reforms; and Michael Piwowar, executive director of the Milken Institute Center for Financial Markets and a former S.E.C. commissioner. Payments top out at $1,400 per person, including children and adult dependents. To qualify for the full $1,400, a single person must have an adjusted gross income of $75,000 or below.Credit…Matt Rourke/Associated Press The stimulus money promised under the American Rescue Plan will hit the bank accounts of many Americans on Wednesday — the first official payment date — though some financial institutions chose to make the cash available to people even before it arrived from the government. Not everyone eligible to receive a payment will get one on Wednesday, though. Additional rounds of payments will be made in the coming weeks, including for people who will receive theirs by mail as a check or debit card. You can check the status of your payment with the Internal Revenue Service’s Get My Payment tool. Payments top out at $1,400 per person, including children and adult dependents. To qualify for the full $1,400, a single person must have an adjusted gross income of $75,000 or below. For heads of household, adjusted gross income must be $112,500 or less, and for married couples filing jointly, that number has to be $150,000 or below. Partial payments are available to people who earn more, but the amounts fall quickly. The payments are calculated using the most recent information on file with the I.R.S., which could be your 2019 tax return if you haven’t yet filed for 2020. If you’re newly eligible for a payment based on your 2020 income but haven’t yet filed your return, the law allows the Treasury Department to continue payments until September. If you don’t get one during that period, you can claim what you’re owed when you file your 2021 taxes. The problems of Greensill Capital, a financial firm with ties to SoftBank and Credit Suisse, deepened Tuesday after its German unit entered insolvency proceedings. Germany’s banking regulator, known as BaFin, said Tuesday that a judge had granted its request to open insolvency proceedings for Greensill Bank in Bremen. BaFin also formally determined that Greensill Bank was not able to repay all of its customers’ deposits, a step that allows depositors to receive compensation from public and private insurance funds. The insolvency of the German unit was expected after Greensill Capital, which provides financing to companies and has been advised by former Prime Minister David Cameron of Britain, filed for a form of bankruptcy protection in Britain last week. Credit Suisse acknowledged on Tuesday that it was likely to suffer losses from a loan it had made to the firm. It said that it had received $50 million from the administrator of Greensill Capital’s assets in Britain but that $90 million of the loan was outstanding. Credit Suisse’s asset management unit oversaw $10 billion in funds that Greensill packaged based on financing it provided to companies. The loans allowed companies to stretch out payments to suppliers. Credit Suisse has returned $3 billion in cash to investors in the funds and said it was working to recover more money. Credit Suisse said Tuesday that the funds’ managers “intend to announce further cash distributions over the coming months.” The bank has not specified what losses, if any, investors in the funds might ultimately suffer. Source link Orbem News #Backdrop #Economic #Fed #Live #Meets #revamped #Updates

[libertariantaoist]

Remember, the essence of becoming wealthy is to produce more than you consume and save the difference.

Gold remains the only financial asset that's not simultaneously someone else's liability.

Government doesn't just do the wrong thing, it does the exact opposite of the right thing.

The worst enemies of individual liberty are the knaves that claim they're fot it but utterly betray it. And incompetents and ineffectual fools who say they're trying to save freedom by increasing the size of the state.

Foreign aid might be defined as a transfer from poor people in rich countries to rich people in poor countries.

An investor risks 100% of [his] money in the hopes of receiving a 10% gain. A speculator risks just 10% in anticipation of earning 100%.

The conventions for measuring GDP include government expenditures, so GDP is a poor measure of underlying economic health. The government might, for instance, hire 10 million people to dig ditches during the day, 10 million more to fill them in at night, and 5 million bureaucrats to monitor the work. That would pump up GDP and reduce unemployment, but it wouldn't increase society's wealth. It would decrease it.

There is cause and there is effect. You don't want to be the effect of somebody else's cause. You want to be the cause for everything in your life. That implies working for yourself.

Power not only corrupts, it draws the corrupt. - “Doug Casey on Phyles,” 4/13/201

The thought of how far the human race would have advanced without government simply staggers the imagination.

Government intervention in the economy - through taxes, regulation and, most importantly, currency inflation - causes distortions and misallocations of capital that must eventually be unwound. The distortions degrade the general standard of living, and the economy goes into a recession (call that an incomplete cleansing). Or it goes into a depression - wherein the entire sickly structure comes unglued.

Government sponsors untold waste, criminality and inequality in every sphere of life it touches, giving little or nothing in return.

What keeps a truly civil society together isn’t laws, regulations, and police. It's peer pressure, social opprobrium, moral approbation, and your reputation.

So-called 'higher education' is a veritable magnet for second-raters and actively destructive parasites bent on promoting unsound ideas to the inexperienced and gullible. They concentrate in areas like social studies, literature, and art - where opinion reigns supreme. And I find their opinions almost universally appalling.

Over two thousand years ago, Aristotle taught us that money should be durable, divisible, consistent, convenient, and value in itself. It should be durable, which is why wheat isn't money; divisible which is why works of art are not money; consistent which is why real estate isn't money; convenient, which is why lead isn't money; value in itself, which is why paper shouldn't be money. Gold answers to all these criteria.

Fear is being used by the political class as an excuse to accumulate more power and self-importance - and collect a lot more taxes to support their agenda.

Do all that you say you are going to do and don't aggress against other people or their property. That's the whole of the law. I can live with a law like that.

Trusting the government with money creation is like trusting a drunk with a whiskey factory.

People who buy government debt deserve to be punished and taught a lesson.

Democracy is no solution - it's just 51% bossing the other 49% around. For God's sake, Hitler was democratically elected! Democracy is just mob rule dressed up in a coat and tie.

All these people who think they deserve free health care, or a job, or a plasma screen TV, simply because they radiate heat at 98.6 degrees, or because they were born in a certain place, or because they have a certain skin color - it's all bunk. There's no such thing as a 'just' wage. There's only what you earn.

Today most funding for science comes through government. That means that you have to be known to be sympathetic to conclusions that are acceptable to the political classes.

Global warming is the most prominent form of mass hysteria raging across the world today.

They've been changing the cry from 'global warming' to 'climate change' because there's so little evidence there's actually any warming going on. I believe that as little as a decade from now, global warming will be recognized as one of the greatest swindles in world history. It has so little scientific basis, it can only rationally be considered a political scam.

There's no doubt in my mind that we'll have a mania in gold. And because the gold and especially silver markets are so tiny, the rush into them will be like trying to push the contents of Hoover Dam through a garden hose. Our positions will go absolutely ballistic.

Global warming hysterics generally have limited scientific knowledge, and of geology and meteorology in particular. Their belief is not science; it's more akin to religion. The main epicenter of hysteria is not the scientific community but seems to be Hollywood.

No one can predict whether the earth will be cooler or hotter next year, let alone do anything to change it. If you're afraid of global warming, turn off the lights when you leave the room - but don't participate in the corruption of science, don't scare our kids with unproven cataclysmic theories, and don't try to ban economic energy sources that people living on this planet depend upon today. And don't try to stop progress; it's the only hope the earth has of seeing clean industry, short of exterminating mankind.

The time will come, and probably during 2009, that the only way the U.S. will be able to fund its deficits is to create money by printing it. The Treasury will have to sell bonds, and, in the absence of foreign buyers, the Fed will have to print the money to buy them. The consequence will be runaway inflation, increasing interest rates, recession, and inevitable tax increases on all Americans.

The way I see it, gold is headed over $1000 an ounce, probably much higher. At anywhere near current prices, it's the lowest risk, highest potential investment I can think of.

Throughout history government has served as a vehicle for the organization of hatred and oppression, benefiting no one except those who are ambitious and ruthless enough to gain control of it.

The average American has been so brainwashed that he thinks he has a moral obligation to give the government whatever it asks for.

Read More

#doug casey #libertarian quotes

[billehrman]

The Trend is your Friend

George Soros’ (a former partner for 9 plus years) unparalleled success was predicated on his uncanny ability to recognize a new trend before anyone else; add to his position over time often using leverage as long as he believed it was not fully recognized by others, and then selling the position when it was recognized by others and selling at full value.  Naturally, he was quick to reverse his view if he felt he was wrong.

We, at Paix et Prospérité, have the same philosophy however we are primarily stock investors rather than buying/selling futures/options on stocks indices, currencies and commodities as George did. We combine both a top-down global perspective analyzing economic, monetary, fiscal, trade and regulatory policies by region combined with a bottom up stock specific approach to investing utilizing our independent research. We do hedge our portfolios if we deem it prudent. And, as we have said before, our long-term record of outperformance speaks for itself.

As you know we turned bearish last year when the Fed tightened policy way too much jeopardizing our economy while Trump was tweeting incessantly about trade tariffs against any country, most notably China, that was not trading on a level playing field with us and stealing our IP. However, we shifted our stance at the end of last December after the Fed finally reversed its monetary stance easing policy, lowering rates, and acknowledging that it would do all in its power to sustain the economic expansion while trying to raise the inflation rate up to its 2% target. We wrote many times this year that all monetary authorities globally were now overly accommodative providing more liquidity to the system than was needed by the global economy such that the excess liquidity would move into financial assets thereby increasing prices for stocks and bonds while forcing investors further out on the risk curve. We recognize that there is a lag time between monetary authorities easing policy and the global economy responding by expanding once again. This was further complicated by a sharp slowdown in global trade such that the countries relying on exports/production, like China, Germany and Japan, suffered much more than the countries, like the U.S, who were much more reliant on consumption. It also helped the U.S that Trump added tremendous fiscal stimulus and regulatory reforms to our economy whereas Germany and Japan had refused to budge. China’s economy was hurt the most as its economy was so reliant on production/exports and the shift to consumption was just in its early years. Our portfolios were concentrated domestically in defensive stocks with yields far above the 10 and even 30-year Treasury rates. The U.S was by far the best/safest house on the block to invest in.

We began to shift our view 8 weeks ago when we recognized that the global economy was nearing an inflection point such that growth was finally basing and would begin to accelerate as we entered 2020. Therefore, we slowly began to transition our portfolios to more economically sensitive stocks domiciled in the U.S selling at recession valuations with above average yields generating significant free cash flow while also shrinking their market capitalizations. Technology was then and remains today the largest area of concentration in our portfolios as corporations would invest in it earning a significant return on their tech investments while enhancing their competitive position.

Beside our view that all this excess monetary creation would find its way into financial/risk assets, we held firmly to our belief that the stock market multiple would trend up over time to 20 times earnings moving above the historic trend of 13 to 17 times earnings as interest rates were 300-600 basis points below their historic norm while bank capital/liquidity ratios(risk) were moving well above historic highs, too. We eventually became far less concerned about trade tariffs/conflicts recognizing that most of the tariffs were eaten by the overseas manufacturers, the strength of the dollar and supply chain movements.

These trends/core beliefs were and remain our friend as we are more convinced today that:

·      The global economy is bottoming out and 2020 will be a better year;

·      Trade is far less a problem to the U.S than perceived with China at risk as its economy continues to weaken thereby jeopardizing China 2025 putting the U.S  in the driver’s seat due to the inherent strength of our economy bolstered by strong consumer demand and tremendous fiscal stimulus;

·      Global monetary policy remaining overly accommodative in excess of economic needs therefore boosting the value of financial assets while forcing investors further out on the risk curve;

·      Low inflation is not transitory due to global competition, technological advancements and disruptors everywhere;

·      Stocks market multiples will trend higher over time as the Fed/ investors become more convinced that low inflation is here to stay such that interest rates will remain 300-600 basis points below their historic norms with bank capital/liquidity ratios remaining at all-time highs

·       Most corporations are running lean and mean with dividend yields above the 10- and 30-year government bond rates while generating large amounts of free cash flow;

·      Investors are significantly over-weighted bonds just as the yield curve has begun to steepen and under-weighted equities even after the 20+% advance this year

Let’s take a look again at the four key issues that investors are focused on: trade, monetary policy, Brexit and Trump.

Trade: We believe that the odds of a Phase 1 trade deal continue to increase as evidenced by both the comments and actions out of the U.S and China last week. China began the process Friday of waiving tariffs on imports of U.S pork, soybeans, cotton, corn, and sorghum. Let’s be clear that China needs our agricultural goods as food inflation has risen out of sight. Trump, on the other hand, realizes that the U.S is in the catbird seat such that the President said at the NATO conference that he may be willing to wait until after elections to finalize a trade deal with China. In our opinion, China cannot afford to wait running the risk that companies will only accelerate their supply line shifts elsewhere and the Democrats, if elected, may take a more aggressive stance against China especially for environmental reasons (coal).

Trump also showed that he is more than willing to use tariffs to combat trade issues. He proposed duties of $2.4 billion against French products in retaliation to a French tax against U. S tech companies and he also reinstituted tariffs on steel and aluminum from Argentina and Brazil as he criticized them for cheapening their currencies to the detriment of U.S farmers.

Japan’s Parliament approved the trade deal with the U.S.

Monetary Policy: All of the major monetary bodies continue to support overly accommodative policies. ECB President Christine Lagarde joined Fed Chairman Powell stating that the ECB will be “resolute” on hitting its 2% inflation mandate. Good luck! By the way, the Fed pumped another $70.1 billion liquidity into the markets last week.

Brexit: It appears that Johnson will receive a mandate at this week’s upcoming election on 12/10 to pass his Brexit bill. If not successful, we still do not expect a hard Brexit as it would hurt both the British and European economies which both can ill afford.

Trump: We continue to believe that Trump recognizes that he needs a strong economy and stock market to win the election, therefore, it is doubtful that he will do anything that would jeopardize his chances to win. We expect him to propose a new round of tax cuts benefitting the lower and middle classes and pay for it by closing loopholes that benefit only the wealthy, an infrastructure plan, and a healthcare/drug pricing plan.

Now, let’s take a brief look at the most recent data points that confirm that the U.S is doing just fine while other economies continue to struggle. However, they appear to be bottoming out especially if, as we expect, global trade picks up after Phase 1 of a trade deal is reached between China and the U.S, and we pass the one-year anniversary of tariffs making year over year comparisons easier.

United States: The economic data points reported last week were overwhelmingly positive supporting our view that the U.S economy can sustain 2+% growth in 2020 and, even more if a Phase 1 of a trade deal is reached and if the U.S/Canada/Mexico trade deal is passed; U.S consumer sentiment hit a seven-month high of 99.2; the index of buying conditions rose to the highest level in a year; longer term inflation expectations fell to a record low of 2.3%; consumer credit increased to $18.9 billion in October which is up to a  5.5% annualized rate; wholesale inventories rose slightly after falling 0.7% in September; the trade gap fell to $47.2 billion as both imports and exports fell; the consumer confidence index rose to 61.7; factory orders rebounded 0.3% led by a surge in capital goods orders sans aircraft (Boeing issue); the IHS Services Index rose to 51.6 in November; the new orders index rose to 57.1 and the employment index was at 55.5%.

On the other hand, the IHS Manufacturing Index fell to the lowest level in a decade at 48.1; new orders were at 46.7 and employment at 46.6. We firmly believe corporations are reducing their inventories at a record clip which may present an upside surprise early next year.

The big shocker reported last Friday was the employment data: payrolls rose 266,000 after a 41,000 positive revision to the prior two months; the GM strike ending only added 41,300 to the numbers; the jobless rate dipped to 3.5%, the lowest level since 1969; and wages rose at a 3.1% annualized clip beating inflation. The U.S has added over 2 million jobs this year boosting annual incomes by over $600 billion. Some slowdown!

China: No real changes in our view that their economy continues to decelerate with financial risks rising without a trade deal. China’s default rate is about to break a record exceeding $17 billion this year. China needs a deal and fast.

Eurozone: Germany’s economy continues to slide as evidenced by a 0.4% decline in orders and industrial output due to weak demand. We cannot fathom why this country does not institute a huge fiscal stimulus program to offset rising deflationary pressures. We were pleased to see that Merkel’s party is losing elections. Change is needed here and fast!

Japan: We were pleasantly surprised to see Japan’s government pass a $120 billion fiscal stimulus plan funded by selling bonds. Thank heaven the interest cost will be so low that it won’t hurt the country’s budget. Are you listening Germany, France, India?

Investment Summary

We see no reason to alter our current investment view/ portfolio structure since all the trends/core beliefs that we saw 8 weeks ago are still progressing as we had anticipated. Our portfolios are concentrated in technology, especially semis; global capital goods, industrials and machinery companies; housing related retailers as well as other retailers who have successfully transformed themselves and will be revalued over time; financials; low cost, cash flow positive industrial commodity companies; some healthcare companies with major new product introductions; and many special situations where management is focused on closing the gap between current valuation and intrinsic value. We do not own bonds as we expect the yield curve to steepen nor are we long the dollar any longer.

Our Investment Committee webinar will be held on Monday morning, December 9th at 8:30 am EST. You can join by typing https://zoom.us/j/9179217852 into your browser.

Remember to review all the facts; pause, reflect and consider mindset shifts; look at your asset mix with risk controls; do independent research and…

Invest Accordingly!

Bill Ehrman

Paix et Prospérité LLC

[crypto4all]

Market Wrap: Bitcoin Can't Stick to $9,000 While Stocks Rally

The equities markets far outpaced cryptocurrencies Tuesday on optimism that economic restrictions put in place to help slow the spread of the coronavirus are easing. Bitcoin (BTC) poked its head above the $9,000 level briefly during morning trading in New York but fell to below $8,700 on selling. As of 20:35 UTC (4:35 p.m. ET), bitcoin was trading at $8,846, a loss of 1% over 24 hours.  The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading below its 10-day and 50-day technical indicator moving averages, a signal of bearish sentiment.  “Bitcoin failed to break higher and has been bouncing off support in the $8,700 region,” said Max Boonen, CEO of cryptocurrency liquidity provider B2C2. Bitcoin trading on Coinbase since May 24Source: TradingViewWhile bitcoin has been trending lower, Tuesday’s big winners are stocks. The Nikkei 225 in Asia closed trading up 2.2%, with the index hitting a three-month high as Japan ended its pandemic-induced state of emergency measures. The FTSE Eurotop 100 index of Europe’s largest public companies by market cap was also in the green, although up less than a percent. The gain was also attributed to the easing of lockdowns in Europe.  Read More: Paul Tudor Jones: Bitcoin Is Now the Macro Big Bet In the U.S. the S&P 500 climbed 1.2% on the day, up 4% for the past month.  “It’s probably the case that stocks are moving upward in response to increased reopening of the economy, which Wall Street may be taking as a positive sign,” said Danny Kim, head of revenue for exchange aggregator SFOX. “Bitcoin’s minor downward movement, on the other hand, probably has more to do with a loss of momentum than anything else.”  Since starting the first week of May in tandem, bitcoin and the S&P 500 have been going in opposite directions.

Bitcoin and S&P 500 compared for MaySource: CoinDesk Research“Bitcoin is not demonstrating correlation to the equity markets at present, given a lot of the smart money is still sitting in stablecoins, particularly tether,” said Chris Thomas, head of digital assets at Swissquote Bank. Indeed, stablecoins are on the rise and tether is leading the way with a $9 billion market capitalization, according to its transparency page. The blockchain-based assets, pegged to the U.S. dollar, are helpful for traders to move balances quickly across different exchange platforms.

Stablecoin issuance per week since the start of 2020Source: CoinDesk ResearchThere is some looming concern bitcoin’s price will keep sliding downward due to changes in mining economics since the May 11 bitcoin halving. The once-in-four-year event for the Bitcoin network dropped daily new bitcoin generated to reward miners from roughly 1,800 to 900 BTC. At Tuesday’s bitcoin prices, that 900 BTC translates to around $8 million per day.  Read More: Iranian President Calls for National Crypto Mining Strategy Miners will have to sell a lot of that bitcoin for cash, according to Swissquote’s Thomas. “Chinese miners who are still running are barely profitable running old technology. They are surviving due to extremely cheap hydro electricity through the Chinese wet season, but will need to continue selling most of their monthly bitcoin gains to pay their operations expenses,” he said. “This will also start weighing on the market.” Chinese miners make up about 65% of the total bitcoin mining power, according to data provided by pools and collected by the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance.

Hashrate share provided by BTC.com, Poolin and ViaBTCSource: Cambridge UniversityDespite a lower crypto outlook, B2C2’s Boonen says his firm has seen professional traders pick up bitcoin at these prices, possibly because they see a value play. “Against the trend, we have seen light buying of BTC and selling of ETH across our franchise since the weekend,” he told CoinDesk. 

Other markets

Digital assets on CoinDesk’s big board are mostly in the red Tuesday. Ether (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, lost 2.2% in 24 hours as of 20:35 UTC (4:35 p.m. ET). 

Ether trading on Coinbase since May 24Source: TradingViewThe biggest losers in 24-hour trading were ethereum classic (ETC) down 2%, stellar (XLM) slipping 1.4% and iota (IOTA) in the red 1.3%. The few winners on the day include lisk (LSK) gaining 4%, qtum (QTUM) in the green 1% and nem (XEM) climbing less than a percent. All price changes were as of 20:35 UTC (4:35 p.m. ET) Tuesday. In the commodities sector, oil is up 1%, with the price for a barrel of crude at $34.21 as of press time. Gold experienced heavy selling early in the session, with the yellow metal slipping less than a percent on the day to $1,710 at the close of New York trading. 

Contracts-for-difference on gold since May 22Source: TradingViewRead More: Bitcoin Could Get a Boost From Central Bank Digital Currencies U.S. Treasury bonds were mixed Tuesday. Yields, which move in the opposite direction as price, were up most on the 30-year, climbing 4.6%. Disclosure Read More The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups. Read the full article

[joshuajacksonlyblog]

Bitcoin Correction at $9k Likely After Billionaire Druckenmiller’s Chilling Stocks Warning

Bitcoin could undergo corrections near $9,000 as Stan Druckenmiller, a billionaire hedge fund manager, warns about a stock market crash. The former George Soros’ chief strategist said a V-shape recovery for equities is a “fantasy.” The prediction put Bitcoin’s market cap under risks of a similar downsizing, given its growing correlation with the S&P 500 after March 2020. As bitcoin struggles to close above $9,000, a chilling stock market prediction has decreased the cryptocurrency’s possibility of continuing its recovery rally any further. Stan Druckenmiller, one of the world’s top money managers, said the U.S. equities’ likelihood of logging a V-shaped recovery is a “fantasy.” The billionaire investor spotted the risk-reward calculation for the Wall Street indexes at its worst, noting that even the Federal Reserve’s lending programs and the U.S. Congress’s stimulus programs wouldn’t save stocks from plunging further. Artificial Recoveries Bitcoin, gold, and stocks recovered in tandem from their March lows after the Fed unveiled a string of emergency programs, including a near-zero interest rate and a giant bond-purchasing plan. The U.S. government followed suit and passed a $3 trillion stimulus package to save the U.S. ailing economy. As usual, much of the helicopter money ended up inflating the stocks of profit-averse “zombie” companies, as well as bitcoin, a non-market asset that serves as a speculative hedge against financial crisis. The cryptocurrency recovered by up to 161 percent, also supported by a so-called “halving FOMO.” Meanwhile, the benchmark S&P 500 rebounded 34.81 percent max. Bitcoin rose 175% after crashing below $4,000 in mid-March | Source: TradingView.com, Coinbase But these recoveries, which could theoretically mark the end of a bear market, have no solid backings other than free money, believes Mr. Druckenmiller. He said they wouldn’t be instrumental for a market that is staring at more Coronavirus-induced blows and a slew of corporate bankruptcies. “It was basically a combination of transfer payments to individuals, basically paying them more not to work than to work,” he said. “And in addition to that, it was a bunch of payments to zombie companies to keep them alive.” Bitcoin Risk-Reward A Reuters report published late April noted that Bitcoin appealed to investors more than equities for its higher risk-reward calculations. Hedge funds and money managers decided to make money off the cryptocurrency’s trademark price swings, with Paolo Ardoino, CTO of BitFinex crypto exchange, stating that they would even have traded potatoes for profits. “You have high-frequency trading firms that trade on the scent of the spread to make money,” he told Reuters. “Whether it’s milk or potatoes or bitcoin, they would trade anything – so they really don’t care about the philosophical point of view.” That lands Bitcoin under the category of equities – both recovered on their respective speculative merits. As Mr. Druckenmiller fears, the cash liquidity required to pump risky assets would keep on shrinking. The U.S. Treasury would end the private economy and overwhelm the Fed purchases through consistent borrowing. BTCUSD Volatility peaked during March-April | Source: BuyBitcoinWorldwide.com Nevertheless, the bitcoin market finds itself surrounded by more narratives about its potential hedging capabilities. Just recently, billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones invested a small sum in the cryptocurrency’s futures as his experiment against the fiat-based inflation. “But I’m very conservative,” the veteran hedge fund manager told CNBC. “I’m going to keep a tiny percent of my assets in it and that’s it. It has not stood the test of time, for instance, the way gold has.” Bitcoin was trading near $8,900 at the time of this publication. Photo by Goh Rhy Yan on Unsplash from Cryptocracken Tumblr https://ift.tt/3dGZYHs via IFTTT

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[benmauerberger]

Forex - Dollar Erases Gains as U.S. Bond Yields Ease, Euro Rises

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Forex - Dollar Erases Gains as U.S. Bond Yields Ease, Euro Rises

© Reuters. Dollar erases gains as U.S. bond yields ease, euro rises

Investing.com – The dollar erased gains on Tuesday, as U.S. bond yields pulled away from recent highs and as the euro strengthened, buoyed by data showing that the euro zone economy enjoyed its best year in a decade in 2017.

The , which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, was down 0.34% to 89.87 by 08:40 AM ET (13:40 GMT), falling back towards last week’s low of 88.25, its weakest level since December 2014.

The dollar came under renewed selling pressure as U.S. Treasury yields eased after climbing to fresh multi-year highs on Monday, amid growing expectations for major central banks to begin scaling back monetary stimulus.

Investors were also cautious ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s State of the Union speech and a Federal Reserve policy meeting.

Market participants were awaiting Trump’s speech, due later in the day, for anything further he might have to say about the dollar. The president was also expected to outline his much-anticipated infrastructure plan.

The dollar slumped last week after U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin gave a tacit endorsement of a weak currency. Trump later tried to row back from those comments, saying he ultimately wants the dollar to be strong.

The focus was also on the Fed, which was to begin its two-day policy meeting later Tuesday. While the U.S. central bank was not expected to make any changes to monetary policy, the meeting was the last time Janet Yellen would serve as Fed chair before the role is taken over by Jerome Powell.

The euro gained ground, with climbing 0.41% to 1.2432, moving back in the direction of the more than three year peaks of 1.2537 reached last week.

Data from Eurostat on Tuesday confirmed that the recovery in the euro area remains on track, with growth of 2.7% over the course of last year, the strongest in a decade.

The euro zone economy grew 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2017.

Against the yen, the dollar was lower, with losing 0.24% to trade at 108.69, re-approaching last Friday’s four-and-a-half month low of 108.27.

Sterling rebounded from the day’s lows, with rising 0.43% to 1.4135.The pound had weakened earlier after leaked government papers showed that Britain’s economy would be worse off under all three likely Brexit scenarios.

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