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mst3kproject · 5 years

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602: Invasion USA

This is not the 1985 movie with Chuck Norris. I suppose I should watch that one someday as an Episode that Never Was, but for now we have this. Its basic purpose is the same as that of Rocket Attack USA, to scare the audience into patriotic loyalty, and it shockingly manages to be even worse at it.

A bunch of people are sitting around in a bar talking about the universal draft when an unnamed country suddenly declares war on the United States, and… well, that’s it, really. Stock footage of anti-aircraft guns fires on stock footage of planes. Stock footage of atom bombs is dropped on stock footage of cities. Stock footage of warships crosses stock footage of oceans. All while the so-called characters watch it happening on television and remark on how they can’t believe this is real… no wonder, since none of it is happening in the same dimension they’re in.

I refuse to call Invasion USA a movie. It doesn’t qualify. It’s more like four newsreels in a trench coat and a fake beard, trying to pretend they’re a narrative. Take, for example, the part where Boulder Dam is destroyed. We see stock footage of the planes. We see stock footage of the dam. We see stock footage of a mushroom cloud. And then stock footage of a flood. The closest this comes to interacting with the characters fleeing from it is that we see the flood footage back-projected behind their car, and then the camera rolls over and we cut to some of their possessions which have been tossed into a river. It’s all so obviously a juxtaposition rather than a series of events. You can’t help but roll your eyes.

The nearest this comes to being interesting or exciting is some of the stuff we see in the military stock footage. The audience doesn’t exactly feel involved in this – it’s just film of random Things Happening so it doesn’t tell a story, except in retrospect when the TV news anchor tells us what’s supposed to be going on, but there are some spectacular plane crashes and so forth. Of course, then you remember that none of this is special effects. You’re watching real human beings die gruesome deaths. That sucks the fun out of it pretty fast.

It’s not until the last twelve minutes that we get anything that might be called a special effect. The bad guys nuke New York, and while what we see looks nothing like the aftermath of an atomic bombing, there is an actual miniature building that falls apart, dumping Styrofoam boulders on our heroes. This is followed by a mediocre matte paining, but one that still does the job its meant to do. It’s actually kind of a shock, since up until now the war has seemed to go on all around this room but never to enter it.

That’s one halfway-effective moment out of an entire seventy-three minutes of film, however, and the rest is all garbage. Not only is there the endless stock footage, there’s also the bad guys. They’re never identified as Soviets, though they speak with Russian accents, because the film-makers didn’t want Invasion USA to be a self-fulfilling prophecy (thus making them more sensible than the people who made The Interview). Much is made of the fact that they’re wearing American uniforms, but the one time they try to make a plot point out of it, a guard sees through the ruse immediately. The real reason is once again to avoid mentioning a country, and so they can use the stock footage of American soldiers to represent both sides.

The baddies espouse ideals of equality, freedom, and peace, but the only ones we actually meet are a couple of bullying, alcoholic rapists. This serves its purpose but the writers apparently see no contradiction between portraying ‘bad’ characters as drunks and having the ‘good’ characters sitting around drinking for half the run time. I guess whether alcohol is good or bad depends on how nicely you’re dressed and what shape of glass you’re drinking it from. Not to mention that the psychic who can be seen as a bully and a rapist based on what he does to the other characters’ minds, but I’ll get back to that.

How long the whole war takes to happen I have no idea. A few days must have passed, since a guy drives from San Francisco to somewhere in Arizona, and somebody makes a reference to ‘months’, but the way we keep cutting back to the same people in the same bar gives the impression that the invasion of America happens in about twenty minutes. Maybe this is intentional, since the story, of course, ends with the revelation that it was alllll a dreeeeeeam. Or maybe everybody was just too incompetent to show us time passing.

The ending attempts to work on multiple levels and is shit on all of them. First, there’s the ending to the narrative we’ve been watching. This isn’t really a story, since there’s no plot as such, merely things happening that the characters cannot possibly do anything about. They’re powerless in the face of these overwhelming events, and once the factory owner is shot after refusing to build tanks for the invaders, it doesn’t take the audience long to realize that this fate will be pretty universal. Sure enough! The rancher is drowned when the flood from the broken dam sweeps him away, along with his wife and kids to make it extra-tragic. The politician is killed in the attack on Washington. The reporter is shot for picking a fight with a bad guy, and his girlfriend leaps out the window to her death.

Then of course they wake up back in the bar, and learn that it was all a dream, or rather a vision, instilled in their minds by a psychic who hypnotized them with swirling whiskey! I’m inclined to be slightly more forgiving of this than I normally would be, since it was sort of set up and at this point there’s really nowhere else to go. It’s still an obnoxious way to end a story and there’s a reason your high school English teacher told you not to do it. Some dialogue establishes they all had the same vision, and then the psychic informs them that this is what the future will be if they don’t take steps to avoid it.

Uh, excuse me, what? Nothing we’ve just seen suggests that any of these five people were in a particular position to save the world. They can do small things – the woman goes to get a job at the blood bank, the factory owner decides to make tank parts instead of tractors, and so on (are tractors not important? Call me a commie but I’d rather my tax money be spent on feeding people than on blowing them up). But none of this will prevent the invasion we saw and could only make the slightest of differences in its outcome. Are the five of them somehow crucial in a way the narrative didn’t bother to make clear?

Of course, that’s not actually the point here. The real moral of the story is that we all need to do what we can to grease the wheels of the war machine, or we’re gonna end up calling each other Comrade. So… what was the psychic’s goal, here? Did he just decide to scare the pants off these people because he was annoyed by their opinions about the draft? Or is he going from bar to bar, instilling this vision of the future in every person he meets one at a time? And of course we have only his word for it that it is the future. The bartender does call him a con man, and for all we know he made the whole thing up.

What about the woman and the reporter, who saw themselves falling in love and then being tragically separated? They didn’t consent to that. The illusion of the relationship, with all its emotional, psychological, and sexual consequences, was forced upon them by an outside influence. They decide to use this second chance to pursue it in a situation where it might not end in tragedy, but who’s to say it’ll work without that background? They would have every right to object to this violation of their minds… as would the others, who saw their families die and their homes destroyed.

The final shot gives us a quote from George Washington: to prepare for war is one of the most effectual means of preserving peace. I don’t know if Washington ever said that but if he did he stole it. Si vis pacem, para bellum is a Latin adage, first attested in Vegetius, although versions also appear in Plato and Sima Qian. It’s as old as humanity, and attributing it to Washington is just one more attempt to tug on the patriotic heartstrings. Of course, if you consider the Romans, the Athenians, and the ancient Chinese… yep, this is something said by empire builders.

You know what movies like this have taught me? That propaganda film-making is really hard. If you want to deliver a message without annoying the audience then it has to emerge naturally from the story being told, rather than being imposed upon it like, say, the save-the-oceans message in Gamera vs Zigra. Then the story also has to make sense outside of that message, it has to feel like it would be worth telling even if the moral weren’t attached – Pacific Rim has a moral about working together, but it’s also just enjoyable to watch. Invasion USA is not like that. It exists only to shove its message down our throats and it isn’t even any good at it. Fuck this stock footage montage pretending to be a movie.

#mst3k #reviews #invasion usa #tw: rape #fuck this movie #50s

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claremal-one · 4 years

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Will South Carolina Be Biden’s Firewall After All?

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): With just one day before the South Carolina primary on Saturday, former Vice President Joe Biden has a 14 in 15 shot at winning the most votes in South Carolina, according to our forecast. He is a heavy favorite and is expected to win 39 percent of the vote, on average.

But a lot of Biden’s gains in South Carolina, both in our forecast and our polling average, have come in the last several days as polls following Nevada and Tuesday night’s debate have started to trickle in. Prior to this week, things had looked pretty close in South Carolina, and the model even had Sanders in the lead there prior to the Nevada caucuses.

So Galen, you’re actually on the ground in South Carolina. What are you seeing and hearing?

galen (Galen Druke, podcast producer and reporter): For now, it looks like Biden has managed to reverse the trends of the past couple weeks of Sen. Bernie Sanders and billionaire Tom Steyer gaining support — in particular black support — here in South Carolina. A Monmouth poll just came out today showing Biden up by 20 points and winning black voters by almost 30 points.

But to give you some on-the-ground color for what it’s like: I spent yesterday morning at the National Action Network’s Ministers’ Breakfast at Mount Moriah Missionary Baptist Church, a large black church in North Charleston, and what I observed in both speaking with attendees and observing the crowd’s reaction was that Biden was far and away the favorite of the candidates that spoke.

In the afternoon, I went to a Sanders rally in North Charleston that — while more diverse than his New Hampshire rallies — was still very white for a state where 60 percent of the Democratic electorate is black.

geoffrey.skelley (Geoffrey Skelley, elections analyst): Yeah, Galen, that lines up with some of what I found going through South Carolina polls after my visit to the state a week and a half ago. Sanders has often led Biden among white voters in the polls, but Biden leads among black voters, which is very important. The margins for each candidate could decide whether the race is close or not, though.

While I was there, it seemed like Biden might be in trouble, yet some recent polls show him with a more comfortable lead. That might come from Steyer fading after Nevada, though it’s unclear.

sarahf: Galen is right that that Monmouth poll is a really strong point in Biden’s favor, but I guess I’ve been kind of surprised by how much overall support Biden’s lost since Iowa. Granted, this is from an average of national polls, but the fact that the gap between Biden and Sanders’s support among black Americans has closed so dramatically in recent weeks makes me wonder how overwhelming the support will be for Biden on Saturday.

clare.malone (Clare Malone, senior political writer): Voters love a winner! 2016 taught us that. His weaker showings have redounding effects.

sarahf: That’s true, but I have to imagine the storyline to watch on Saturday will be how Biden does with black voters. And I’m curious how this plays out across age, given Biden’s downturn since Iowa (although maybe last-minute surge now). Because one thing that has divided voter choice overall — including black voters — is age.

Do we think we’ll see that kind of age split in South Carolina? Or because it’s a more conservative southern state, maybe not as much as, say, a state like California?

galen: Yeah, Sarah, when it comes to the generational divide, you’re right. In 2016, Sanders pulled even with Clinton among black voters under the age of 30, even though she won almost 80 percent of the black vote overall.

One thing to keep in mind, though, is that young people don’t vote at the same rates as older voters, especially in primaries, and that will probably be true here in South Carolina as well.

geoffrey.skelley: Right, Galen. A plus for Biden is that most voters will be older. In South Carolina’s 2016 Democratic primary, 65 percent of voters were 45 years or older, according to the exit poll. So even if Sanders can gin up younger voter turnout some — and it’s unclear whether he’s really been doing that so far — the electorate will likely lean toward older voters.

sarahf: On the point of Biden’s mediocre performances so far, how have folks been grappling with it, Galen? I know Geoffrey heard a lot from folks earlier this month who said what happened in the first two states didn’t matter to them.

galen: I haven’t heard a lot of people express doubt about Biden based on poor performances in Iowa and New Hampshire. After all, a lot of the support Biden has is based on years of his presence in the state and his association with the country’s first black president. That can’t really be erased in a couple weeks.

Biden has also had a good — or not so bad — week in the news cycle. He came in second in Nevada, he performed fine in the debate, and he got the coveted endorsement of House Majority Whip James Clyburn on Wednesday. By the way, I spoke to Clyburn about why he decided to endorse Biden, and he expressed the same skepticism about Sanders’s candidacy that I’ve heard from other older black voters as well.

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clare.malone: Yes, Galen. I wrote about that this fall when I followed Biden around for a couple months, including in South Carolina. There’s a lot of history and effort that black voters feel Biden has put in, and they’re quite attuned to candidates who might be just dropping in and pandering to them.

geoffrey.skelley: Like quoting Martin Luther King, Jr. in your first response to a debate question, Clare?

galen: Clare, I have talked to a number of voters who have complained about pandering. Voters here are VERY attuned to it and it is SO transparent.

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sarahf: So I think both Clare and Galen are right — despite his national slump among black voters — Biden’s support in South Carolina is pretty sticky. But at the same time … how do you explain Steyer in third in our state average there?!?

Is it noise? Or has Steyer maybe made serious inroads there aside from all the ad buys?

galen: MONEY $$$$$

clare.malone: Steyer’s ads are interesting, since he frames himself not as much as the IMPEACH guy, but as a businessman. That’s more moderate imagery, and the black electorate in the Democratic Party tends to skew moderate. So he’s doing something smart!

But I’m not sure if that’s actually going to translate into like, a third place win. But never say die.

galen: I mean he looks like he’ll come in third, so I take those polls seriously. But I don’t think what happens here for Steyer in South Carolina says much about the rest of the race nationally.

geoffrey.skelley: It’s more than just ad spending, though. I saw Steyer’s organization first-hand, and it seemed pretty impressive. They’ve made huge investments in attracting African American support, not just with typical election pitches but also community engagement. The campaign has held a bunch of block parties, for example. And the campaign seemed to be everywhere. I even talked to one Sanders volunteer at Sanders’s headquarters in Columbia who said he’d knocked on some rural doors, and the only other literature he’d seen at those places was from Steyer’s campaign.

galen: Steyer’s performance in South Carolina, where former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg isn’t on the ballot, could be a little test run for Bloomberg’s approach, though. If Steyer’s support in polls is reflective of his support on Election Day, that could bode decently for Bloomberg. If he underperforms his polls, though that may suggest that support “purchased” through massive ad/campaign spending may not be that sticky.

sarahf: Right, and we saw how well that worked for Steyer in Nevada. He invested heavily and still finished in fifth place.

geoffrey.skelley: It’s worth noting that Steyer got 9 percent of the initial preference vote in Nevada, and he was at 10 percent in our polling average before the caucuses. So I’m not sure that he really underperformed there.

clare.malone: Though I will say, Bloomberg has perhaps purchased his support slightly differently. It’s ads, sure, but he’s also got a massive philanthropic network that local and state officials might have benefitted from and therefore will endorse or campaign for him. That’s probably a little more effective than Steyer’s ad blitz.

galen: Well, Steyer has gotten some notable endorsements in South Carolina, but he’s actually been accused of buying the backing of South Carolinians, which is similar to criticisms that have been lobbed at Bloomberg.

But the big question regarding Steyer in South Carolina, I think, is whether he can really clear the 15 percent threshold to get delegates, cutting into Biden or Sanders’s totals.

sarahf: Editor-in-chief Nate Silver had a piece on Thursday where he gamed out three scenarios for how the South Carolina primary could go: 1) Large Biden win (by 10 percentage points or more); 2) Modest Biden win (by less than 10 points); and then 3) a Sanders win (no margin specified). Essentially, what I took away from that piece is the margin on Saturday really matters for Biden going forward.

Is that fair?

geoffrey.skelley: A big win for Biden resets the media narrative just a few days before Super Tuesday — and that could be big. It might pull back some moderate voters who had been testing out Bloomberg into Biden’s camp.

galen: Yeah, I think the media is ready to tell the Biden comeback story so if it is born out in the actual election results, well, all the better from a narrative perspective.

Also, the Democratic Party apparatus is not super excited about Sanders, to say the least, so if Biden were to win big, they could start to rally around him in a more concrete way if he wins decisively.

clare.malone: And as the Biden people will tell you, they’ve always put a big focus on the trove of Southern states that the March contests will bring.

They think they have a lot of strength there and that they can mine a whole lot of votes.

galen: TEXAS BABY

geoffrey.skelley: Yes, basically if Biden is able to get a large enough win and then do fairly well on Super Tuesday, you might see a rallying effect for Biden as the Sanders alternative. I’ve been keeping track of the endorsement picture in 2020 vs. the 2016 GOP race, and what you saw then was a bunch of GOP Congress members and governors made endorsements after South Carolina and Nevada. That hasn’t happened in the Democratic race post-Nevada, so maybe they’re waiting for South Carolina and Super Tuesday.

clare.malone: That’s fair. I think we’re going to see the big reassessment post-Super Tuesday, to be honest.

South Carolina is the shot, Super Tuesday is the chaser. We’ll see what the Wednesday morning after scene is like.

sarahf: So … this is DEFINITELY a broken-record type question at this point, but where does this leave the other candidates in South Carolina? What’s a good scenario for Buttigieg, Warren or Klobuchar in South Carolina moving forward into Super Tuesday?

Is there one?

galen: A good scenario for those candidates coming out of South Carolina is a clear Biden win because if Sanders wins the race, it’s basically over.

But if Biden does well, that could also weaken Sanders in Minnesota and Massachusetts, states that Klobuchar and Warren hope to win, respectively.

Now, I don’t think that means they will win the majority of delegates or the nomination, but I think they’d be doing their part for the party establishment to block Sanders by winning those two states, because otherwise he would probably win them.

geoffrey.skelley: I mean, breaking the double digits might be a reasonable goal for Buttigieg or Klobuchar? They’re at 7 and 4 percent, respectively, in our South Carolina polling average.

Warren is at 8 percent, so her too, I guess.

galen: I just don’t see it happening for Buttigieg and Klobuchar, but hey I’ve been wrong before.

geoffrey.skelley: Buttigieg and Klobuchar might benefit if more white moderates vote in the Democratic primary. South Carolina uses an open primary, so keep an eye on that. There are Republican-leaning voters who are a little skeptical of Trump in places like suburban Charleston and who helped flip the South Carolina 1st to Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham in 2018 — that’s a district President Trump carried by 13 points in 2016.

Not to mention, we saw both Klobuchar and Buttigieg do well among white moderates in New Hampshire, for instance, so it wouldn’t be too crazy to think they might replicate that success here.

galen: To Geoff’s point, I went to a diner in North Charleston yesterday and spoke with a white voter who called himself an independent and told me he really likes Buttigieg. However, he told me he would be out of town and didn’t plan on voting. He said he didn’t realize until he heard on the radio the other day that he could vote in the Democratic primary.

geoffrey.skelley: Democracy!

clare.malone: What a recommendation for the radio!

galen: I also spoke to an elderly man wearing a MAGA hat at the diner. A reminder that President Trump is holding a rally in North Charleston in Friday even though there isn’t a Republican primary here.

You might call that … trolling?

sarahf: It would be interesting if Biden does well among black Democrats in South Carolina but not as well among white Democrats (and independents, etc.), and we see a kinda a repeat of what happened in New Hampshire.

Does that undermine Biden’s electability argument at all if he continues to not win over white moderate support?

galen: Well, if the Monmouth poll is any indicator, Biden will do fine with both black and white moderates here.

geoffrey.skelley: If South Carolina does work out that way, Super Tuesday will end up answering that question. Is there a notable increase in Biden’s support among white moderates? Or does he continue to split them with Buttigieg, Klobuchar and, of course, Bloomberg, who debuts that day?

galen: The big question to me is how likely it looks like this is all headed to a contested convention. If it looks that way after Super Tuesday, then the other moderates will have a reason to stay in. But if Biden looks like he can win a majority or strong plurality, I think the party will be like PLEASE GTFO of this race.

And considering that Buttigieg and Klobuchar want to be in good standing with the party, they will probably oblige.

I have no idea about Bloomberg, though.

geoffrey.skelley: It was so clear that Clinton was going to win easily in South Carolina in 2016 that I don’t recall people making much of the fact that there were only three days separating South Carolina from Super Tuesday last time around. She was the favorite for the nomination and was going to win the Palmetto State in a walk. This time, though, the favorite for the nomination — Sanders — is behind in South Carolina, and as Nate wrote, a big Biden win could alter the race’s trajectory to some extent. But once again, there are just three days between these events, so how South Carolina affects things is more uncertain.

sarahf: So how important, then, is South Carolina for the rest of the race? To me, it feels like the stakes are higher than in the first three states, because it really is a question now of whether Biden’s campaign remains viable, right?

galen: So, I think South Carolina will help shape the narrative of the race going forward, but like Iowa and New Hampshire, South Carolina is actually not very representative of the Democratic party demographically. There are only five states in the country where the Democratic electorate is majority black — South Carolina being one of them. (Nationally, black voters make up about 20 to 25 percent of the Democratic electorate.)

Also, South Carolina is an overwhelmingly Republican state — 17 points more Republican, according to FiveThirtyEight’s partisan lean metric. So, in some ways, if Biden does well there, that doesn’t necessarily mean he can do well across the rest of the country.

geoffrey.skelley: It seems like Biden will most likely win South Carolina, but if it’s a pretty narrow win, that could be a sign of weakness that doesn’t convince voters who are still considering Bloomberg or Buttigieg or Klobuchar to jump ship and come over to him on Super Tuesday.

If Biden does win by a big margin, though, that could make his campaign far more viable in the long run by winning over some of those voters looking at other moderate alternatives.

As Galen said, South Carolina may not be that representative of the Democratic Party, but it’s certainly pretty important for Biden’s long-term hope of being the leading Sanders alternative.

clare.malone: South Carolina will prime the tank for Super Tuesday, so it’s a really important set-up. If Warren, for instance, finishes low again, perhaps even lower than Klobuchar, and then performs spottily on Super Tuesday, I really wonder if her campaign is over. A sad political story of steady rise and precipitous fall.

Especially if he has a particularly strong showing, I think Biden could potentially set the table for a comeback of sorts (or maybe a campaign to tie or a “no one wins”). But as we’ve said and written before, this whole thing is Sanders’s race to lose.

from Clare Malone – FiveThirtyEight https://ift.tt/2TgPxBO via https://ift.tt/1B8lJZR

#clare malone #clarethings

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theliberaltony · 4 years

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via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

So Galen, you’re actually on the ground in South Carolina. What are you seeing and hearing?

While I was there, it seemed like Biden might be in trouble, yet some recent polls show him with a more comfortable lead. That might come from Steyer fading after Nevada, though it’s unclear.

clare.malone (Clare Malone, senior political writer): Voters love a winner! 2016 taught us that. His weaker showings have redounding effects.

Do we think we’ll see that kind of age split in South Carolina? Or because it’s a more conservative southern state, maybe not as much as, say, a state like California?

One thing to keep in mind, though, is that young people don’t vote at the same rates as older voters, especially in primaries, and that will probably be true here in South Carolina as well.

geoffrey.skelley: Like quoting Martin Luther King, Jr. in your first response to a debate question, Clare?

galen: Clare, I have talked to a number of voters who have complained about pandering. Voters here are VERY attuned to it and it is SO transparent.

Is it noise? Or has Steyer maybe made serious inroads there aside from all the ad buys?

galen: MONEY $$$$$

But I’m not sure if that’s actually going to translate into like, a third place win. But never say die.

galen: I mean he looks like he’ll come in third, so I take those polls seriously. But I don’t think what happens here for Steyer in South Carolina says much about the rest of the race nationally.

sarahf: Right, and we saw how well that worked for Steyer in Nevada. He invested heavily and still finished in fifth place.

But the big question regarding Steyer in South Carolina, I think, is whether he can really clear the 15 percent threshold to get delegates, cutting into Biden or Sanders’s totals.

Is that fair?

galen: Yeah, I think the media is ready to tell the Biden comeback story so if it is born out in the actual election results, well, all the better from a narrative perspective.

clare.malone: And as the Biden people will tell you, they’ve always put a big focus on the trove of Southern states that the March contests will bring.

They think they have a lot of strength there and that they can mine a whole lot of votes.

galen: TEXAS BABY

clare.malone: That’s fair. I think we’re going to see the big reassessment post-Super Tuesday, to be honest.

South Carolina is the shot, Super Tuesday is the chaser. We’ll see what the Wednesday morning after scene is like.

Is there one?

galen: A good scenario for those candidates coming out of South Carolina is a clear Biden win because if Sanders wins the race, it’s basically over.

But if Biden does well, that could also weaken Sanders in Minnesota and Massachusetts, states that Klobuchar and Warren hope to win, respectively.

geoffrey.skelley: I mean, breaking the double digits might be a reasonable goal for Buttigieg or Klobuchar? They’re at 7 and 4 percent, respectively, in our South Carolina polling average.

Warren is at 8 percent, so her too, I guess.

galen: I just don’t see it happening for Buttigieg and Klobuchar, but hey I’ve been wrong before.

Not to mention, we saw both Klobuchar and Buttigieg do well among white moderates in New Hampshire, for instance, so it wouldn’t be too crazy to think they might replicate that success here.

geoffrey.skelley: Democracy!

clare.malone: What a recommendation for the radio!

You might call that … trolling?

Does that undermine Biden’s electability argument at all if he continues to not win over white moderate support?

galen: Well, if the Monmouth poll is any indicator, Biden will do fine with both black and white moderates here.

And considering that Buttigieg and Klobuchar want to be in good standing with the party, they will probably oblige.

I have no idea about Bloomberg, though.

If Biden does win by a big margin, though, that could make his campaign far more viable in the long run by winning over some of those voters looking at other moderate alternatives.

As Galen said, South Carolina may not be that representative of the Democratic Party, but it’s certainly pretty important for Biden’s long-term hope of being the leading Sanders alternative.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #Sarah Frostenson #Clare Malone #Galen Druke and Ge

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tessatechaitea · 4 years

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Batman Loves Superman #3

Superman rubbing his nipples raw.

Maybe in this issue, Batman will figure out who the infected super heroes are by looking at the Batarang molds. But then again, probably not. Or he could just look at the solicits in Previews to see what special one-shot Infected comic books are being released in the near future. On the first page, Batman explains to the reader why he's an asshole.

This is why writers should stay out of the heads of the heroes they write. Because they suck at understanding them and can't help projecting their own beliefs onto the heroes.

Have I mentioned that I don't care for Joshua Williamson's writing style? In this scene, we see Batman explaining (to himself, I guess?) how trying to protect the world has led him down a dark path of invasion of privacy and broken trust. It's not totally Williamson's fault that he believes this is Batman. At some point, Batman became the greatest hero in the DC Universe because fangenders couldn't stop jerking themselves off about how he's just this normal man, you know, but he can defeat Superman! And to believe that, they had to believe that Batman is prepared to destroy every single hero in the DC Universe if it should come to that. Instead of just being this guy who is protecting Gotham and trying to serve justice, he's now this paranoid asshole who thinks he's the only person who can save the world. And being responsible for that means allowing yourself great latitude with your ethical and moral rationalizations. I'd argue that's not Batman though. That's what Batman has become as writers continually try to make sense of the character other writers have fucked up by trying to make sense of him. The logic goes like this: Batman was just a guy with loads of money and no super powers. That made him pretty bad-ass. Fans loved him and he made DC a lot of money. Fans believed Batman was smart enough to defeat any hero with super powers and that's what made him so great. So writers began portraying him as being so prepared for any situation that he could defeat any hero gone rogue. DC loved to make heroes go rogue because they don't understand the point of their own heroes. But Batman was always there to stop them! Unless it was Batman who went rogue. But that hardly ever happens because who could stop Batman?! Once it was established that Batman was prepared to defeat any hero, writers began thinking, "Wait. That means Batman has a whole arsenal of weapons to use the heroes' weaknesses against them. Who does that?! A big jerk, that's who!" Which means now writers felt they had to deal with the side of Batman that was betraying the trust of his friends by constantly plotting against them. And the next step? To show Batman himself being aware of what a huge asshole he is and dealing with it! Although if he saves the world, Batman doesn't really need to deal with the implications of his machinations, does he? He can just gloat and say, "I was right all along! Suck it!" Last issue, I thought Superman had put on some Bat-Make-Up and gone undercover as a fake Joker version of himself. It turns out, he actually poisoned himself to do it because the risk was worth it, I guess? What a great plan! Have the most dangerous man in the world struggle against turning evil! Hey, why not? It's not like anything bad can happen because this is a story written by a writer who can decide, "Superman is stronger than the poison and what makes him so great is his will to do the right thing!" It's not like it's written by a writer who might think, "Why would Superman and Batman choose this course of action? It's way too fucking risky!" Man, I wish this comic book were written by that writer. Superman thinks, "Batman hates this plan. Too risky." But Superman was all in on this plan? Well, I'm glad to know Superman is a bigger asshole than Batman in this comic book. Fucking arrogant bastard is willing to risk the entire world because, as Batman states as his reason to go along with this plan, "We're out of options." Are you though? Are you really? The Joker Who Laughs was captured and the only option was to free him? What about looking at the fucking molds to see what other symbols were carved on the Batarangs-That-Laugh? Okay fine. I guess I'll just accept that the symbols were carved onto the Batarangs-That-Laugh after they were molded. Although I'm absolutely certain that Josh Williamson never even considered it and he actually just fucked up the entire mystery by putting those symbols on the stupid things. Of course, The Batman Who Laughs knows they're trying to play him because he's an evil genius and that's the only way a mediocre writer knows how to write one. Wouldn't it have been nice to see the plan actually work for once and they get some information they can use out of him and The Batman Who Laughs says, "What?! No! How dare you?!" And then he escapes to try to escalate his plan because now the good guys know some of the extent of it? No? You'd rather have this trite, overdone bullshit? Okay, okay! I guess I'm wrong! Calm down! Continuing with this intriguing story that has me so intrigued my butthole has been clenched for the last ten minutes, Batman figures out another person infected by the Batman Who Laughs toxin is Commissioner Gordon. He figures this out from a clue given to him by The Batman Who Laughs. I figured it out two issues ago when Gordon laughed. Jeez, Batman. Take a detective course at Gotham Night College.

Batman is shocked — SHOCKED! — to discover somebody on the Batman Who Laughs toxin can be so darn mean.

The size of the above image, when I first scanned it, was 1776 pixels. That made me realize how crippling it must be for all those people who call into shows like Coast to Coast radio who see meaning in every fucking number they come across. I guess the above image was patriotic. Right up until I resized it down to 620 pixels! I know that statement would have had more impact if I resized it to a number that actually meant something (aside from the founding of Cholula, Mexico, of course). Gordon's stupid argument (it's also crazy because he's on stupid crazy toxin) is that Batman is the cause of all the chaos in Gotham. Obviously that's wrong but Batman's defense composed of jumping on Gordon's van and causing him to careen wildly about the streets and running people off the road before he yanks Gordon out of the van to send it crashing into a small pile of children isn't great. I mean, I don't know if the van hit a small pile of children or not. The point is, Batman doesn't fucking know what it crashed into either. This scene shows why writers blame Batman for causing all of the chaos in Gotham. It's because idiot fucking writers write him causing fucking chaos in Gotham. Then they blame the character they made do those things! Fucking fuckers!

Is this a reference to The Killing Joke? Is Gordon threatening to shoot his daughter in the back, take naked torture Polaroids of her, and then God knows what else? Is Joshua Williamson that disturbing of a human being? Hmm, maybe I finally respect him.

Superman arrives to help by destroying Gordon's Batsuit and Batman is all, "I'd rather die than get help from you!" But even though he says that, he remains alive so I suspect he actually kind of likes getting help from Superman. Gordon reveals his main complaint about Batman is the way Batman leaves in the middle of every conversation. It's an obvious joke to make but I'd suggest maybe this particular moment isn't the time for jokes! No wait. It's exactly the right time for jokes! Man, The Joker is confusing. Am I supposed to be scared and tense or doubled over in laughter? Maybe if Batman just laughed at a few of The Joker's jokes once in a while, The Joker would calm the fuck down. Instead of throwing Gordon's Batsuit into the bin behind the police station, Superman and Batman decide to overthink it. "Why would Gordon get out his Batsuit?" they wonder instead of thinking, "I guess Gordon needed extra fire power to battle us. But since Superman turned the Batsuit into a pile of metal, who cares? Get rid of it." Instead of assuming the obvious, they decide to take the suit back to the Fortress of Solitude to examine it. Examine it for what? Gordon was infected and he used his suit because he's a powerless old man. And guess what? That's just what the Batman Who Laughs wanted them to do! His plan was to realize that Superman and Batman would think the armor meant more than it does. And because of that, it does! Because hiding inside of it is Infected Blue Beetle! Ha ha! They fell right into his trap! What dumbies! Don't think I'm infected because I typed "Ha ha." I assure you, I wasn't really laughing. Or amused in the slightest. I was more sort of exasperated and angry that Williamson wrote such an unbelievable plot point just to get Blue Beetle inside the Fortress of Solitude to take it over. Batman Loves Superman #3 Final Thoughts: I hate myself because I'm going to keep reading this comic book. It is not well thought out at all. Sort of like my life which is maybe why I'm so intrigued by how it makes me feel (which is a kind of mix between self-loathing and horniness).

#Batman Loves Superman #Batman #Superman #Joshua Williamson #DC #DC Comics

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honeyedmilks · 7 years

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strong woman do bong soon- the tumbly review

this is gonna come out as a straight up hate post from a tired soul, about a show that could’ve been everything but wasn’t, and i make no apologies for that. it’s messy and unkind (not as unkind as i could be) but... i’m fairly honest.

what i’ll be talking about:

Strong Woman Do Bong Soon (2017)

a biased summary by :

Do Bong Soon, our female lead (played by Park Bo Young), is super strong- thanks to a power that’s been passed down the ladies of her family for years. there’s a serial woman hater in her neighbourhood terrorising everyone, and she gotta stop that asshole! there’s also some good looking men in this show with like four love lines too keep things interesting, and some flailing gangsters who are out there too that she beats up now and then, drinking feces wine. And if this sounds like an awful mess then good, i’m doing the show great justice then.

a general statement and warning about this show:

it’s not good. if you’ve not seen it then please do not waste your time and instead watch literally anything else. i say this out of love for you. if you want a female lead who’s cool and cute and punches things then watch legend of the blue sea. it may not be perfect but it’s better than this.

the production:

the show is visually very pretty in some sense. stylish wardrobe choices, nice landscape shots, cool sets, and a whole showcase of good looking people.

the directing and special effects, the tone of the show, it can all border cheesy, but the intent is to come off quirky, funny and energetic seeing as this a story about a woman with super human strength.

it’s a bit comic bookish, which again makes sense due to the nature of the show and it’s characters. except it doesn’t work all the time. especially not when the bad guy of your show is hardly a comic book character. he’s a misogynistic guy who likes beating up woman and kidnapping them for his own twisted pleasures.

the directing and writing of this show fails to balance out the light and the dark in this show, by downplaying Bong Soon’s powers and by diluting the story with meaningless backstories and characters we didn’t need.

the performances of our leads vary. but the main cast are well known actors, and carry a lot of talent.

Bo Young manages to make our heroine likeable and relatable for a while. She’s believable and gives the show some spark.

Ji Soo who plays our muddled in the heart copper Guk Doo, can be painful to watch in the first half, you end up not liking him and his harshness, but Ji Soo brings a likeable softness to him in the later half.

Park Hyung Sik, much adored and admired by fans, takes on the role of our lonely chaebol, but he’s not just rich and sad guys, he’s also a video game creator, spy man and tech genius, with flawless skin, who goes by the name Ahn MInhyuk. Hyung Sik’s performance starts off lovably eccentric, bouncing between suave and smart, only to slowly dissipate into boring and even annoying. I’ll talk more about him later.

our side characters are even harder to digest- mostly unlikable, with the funnies wearing off far too early in the long run of the show, we don’t care much for them- except from the woman, held hostage by the shitty but uninteresting serial villain.

there were so many plot points that were awful that just slashed the quality of the show too pieces, and i can’t even begin to talk about them.

the soundtrack is nice. it matches the zany inside of the show for the most part. it’s noticeably more fun when we get to Bong Soon’s super hero antics.

the show is bright, bubbly and cleanly set on the outside when it’s a cutesy office rom com, but turns bleak and even mesier when it tries to get serious.

the romance:

loads of people say that they only finished this show for otp loveliness but i couldn’t relate.

people made gif sets with epic romantic quotes... you know those quotes where it’s like “that one guy who looks at this super strong woman and they’re awesome and shit and he loves her strength and shit...” you know those kind? yeah that’s nonsense. here’s why i think so:

Minhyuk sucks as a romantic lead and a partner well mostly when you ship him with Bong Soon. i’m not gonna lie. i was really excited for them at the start, i was head over heels for those moments when he called her sexy for calling him out on being useless and such. i liked their friendly interactions together, but... when you add her strength in the mix, everything turns sour for me.

Ah Minhyuk... i’m not saying that he should love her for her powers, or because she’s someone who has them. he just saw her as Bong Soon, which i mean.. i guess you can call sentimental? but when he says stuff like “yeah ya strong but your just Bong Soon.” like that’s not... romantic?

he doesn’t trust her when she’s like a million trillion times stronger and powerful than him. i don’t see why she had to go to this guy to “control” her powers. i don’t like how he doesn’t think highly of her powers- he’s just shocked and “shook” but not ever in an admiring way. maybe on the surface, it seems like it but... if you look really closely at the way he says things... it’s not like that.

he sucked at helping her when she lots her powers, didn’t comfort in the way you would have hoped.

he underestimates her when she’s A THOUSAND TIMES STRONGER THAN ANYONE ON THIS EARTH- I mean almost everyone has seen a super here movie right? mary jane admire spider man, but also loves peter, but trusts him, he’s always doing the saving but she doesn’t think she’s better than him. lous lane and superman? pepper potts (a cool ass woman btw who’s honestly a bit like min hyuk when it comes to some of her skills) and iron man? thor and jane? yet... swdbs... minhyuk is still the super hero. and there’s no one relying on Bong Soon to save the day because ... she’s just a woman... we need to protect her... we can’t let her endanger herself to save some people when... she’s the only one who possibly could.

this thing in their relationship where he loved Bong Soon with or without her strengths could’ve worked if they had done it well. like if he actually saw how much of a loss she felt when she lost her powers(which she lost for... what reason again?)- instead... it was so underwhelming. he didn’t see her powers as special and heroic... he didn’t see something so amazing like that to be a great loss to her.

i mean, he’s always down playing her powers- loads of people do, but it’s worse when he does. he’s asked her if she was actually a man and then an alien, like you believe a man could spin a car with their bare hands, but not a woman? so obviously she’s an alien if not a man? how am i supposed to enjoy a female superhero when all anyone does is try erase the fact that she’s a woman?

there’s no empowerment that makes you feel anything for them. that’s usually something you sense but it’s just not there. it’s normal to be worried for your partner but there’s literally no sense of trust and admiration. it’s been a while since i watched swdbs, but i’m pretty sure when Bong Soon saves those women Minhyuk isn’t even happy about it... did she not apologise? that’s nonsense.

it’s not just that aspect of their relationship that bothers me- it’s how whiny and annoying Minhyuk can be. people romanticised his “won’t you love me?” line but it’s not a good line. it’s not a romantic line that’s makes me swoon or makes me feel like Bong Soon should like him. he comes off as clingy and pining and like she’s got to be with her because he likes her so much.

he made his bodyguard make him meals... i don’t care how sentimental and sad he is over his mother. he literally moaned on at her.

he kept a tracking device on her?

he gave her a desk in his office. it was a cute desk alright, but he did it to keep her close and he didn’t even take her video game designing game serious; everything about their relationship is so flat.

if he was such a skilled fighter, did he really need to have Bong Soon as his bodyguard? (she was also a terrible bodyguard but you know).

i know i’m nit picking, but i could over look some of these things if there weren’t so many things that made no sense to me. if only half of these things weren’t based on weakening Bong Soon and her relationship with her super strength.

i blame a lot of this on crappy writing because this could’ve been about Bong Soon and her journey to being a hero but it was just nonsensical.

it was all done so crudely that... i just don’t find anything solid about it.

i felt no chemistry- i liked them best when they were bickering or just being friendly.

like Bong Soon saw her powers as some kind of hardship? something she couldn’t show Guk Du, who she was in love with for so long, but sure Minhyuk sees them and accepts them, but he’s not there to help her realise all the things she can do, or admire and respect her. NOTHING MAKES SENSE.

i don’t even know if i’m right in thinking that Minhyuk could’ve been someone to help her harness her powers and be supportive and help her on her way of becoming a superhero- because does a man who loves you have to be the one to make you see your worth as a hero? but he didn’t even not do that, instead, he just felt like an obstacle telling her that she may have powers but she’s still just Bong Soon.

It just seems like a confusing jumble to me.

were the writers trying to normalise her powers in their relationship? because i could watch any other crappy show with a strong woman who’s human talents are put under her to save the man’s fragile masculinity. but she’s got super hero powers... super heroes are admired and thought of as freaking cool and shit- it’s supposed to be awesome and all that jazz. it’s not much fun otherwise

all these things just annoy me. because if they wanted to make Bong Soon’s journey with her powers be her own, then why was Minhyuk such a useless involvement in them? why did he have to come save her from getting stabbed... why... if they’re gonna add romance in with the story line with her powers... why are the writers so scared of making her powerful... why does she need this mediocre mans help?

i don’t care if he’s a ceo... or a tech genius... he used the lgbt identity as some kind of publicity thing, he’s not nearly as zany and cool as he could've been as he just ended up as another person telling Bong Soon she’s not a superhero.

this ain’t the avengers- it should’ve been Bong Soon’s story as a badass super hero, why do i have to see Guk Do and Minhyuk devise some genius dumb ass plan at the end? why not let Bong Soon defeat the asshole on her own?

why are people scared of a woman being mighty? and a man being there for it without having to to larger than her? while caring for her safety at the same time? it’s just so poorly done. all these things shadow over any cuteness and softness these two had.

Bong Soon, I see why she would fall for him, but in the end, I really didn’t care about them.

it’s almost like her powers are a plot device for their romance. it wasn’t an epic story about a girl with out of this world strength.

i guess their is a development that can be viewed as nice at that point where Minhyuk has to process the discovery of our leading lady being the same mysterious girl that saved his life. he has to love Bong Soon but also separate his idolisation for this hooded girl from his image of Bong Soon and then combine it all at once so what he feels is real love for Bong Soon as he had known her before. so it’s not some twisted sort of mess that’s him loving but then also being with someone he imagined as an angel sent from above by his mother.

it can be seen as romantic that he would take a knife wound for Bong Soon and call people to take her wild drunk videos offline, but it comes at the expense of Bong Soon and her image as a strong women. like she can be weak at points in the story, it’s called character development, but to be constantly pulled under him isn’t what i would call pro female superhero story telling. it’s not feminist and it’s not a romantic dynamic i want to root for.

his heroic acts kept climbing higher than Bong Soon’s, and when we got to hers he was still there, apparently doing half the work.

the characters:

Minhyuk: some final ranting about him. i’ve noticed that Hyung Sik has a pattern when it comes to acting out his male characters; no matter how soft and cute they are, they always have this brimming masculine toxicity to them. in swdbs it’s really unbalanced (even worse in hwarang). i honestly tried feeling sympathy for him, with his messed up family and his dead mum and all that but he was honesty no fun to watch. he wasn’t offbeat and interesting. he was saturated down to some rich ceo manly man who said that he was a “healthy man” instead of gay.

like he could’ve been so much interesting if he actually were bisexual or a supporter of lgbt rights, if he weren’t making Bong Soon do this and that, asking if she were a man and pining here and there- honestly these characters are such a waste of potential.

Bong Soon: i’ve not talked enough about her. i like how she can be brash and i like how she can be caring with her friends, and i know she’s not a genius of any kind but she can be a bit thick. the writing sacrificed Bong Soon’s intelligence for plot points- like she wouldn’t be that careless to send her friend out on her own when their’s a kidnapper out there would she? and then be so mad that she had to catch the guy?

she has like three interests. Guk Do, video games and cooking. i just wish she were more developed, i wish this story was about her and not a thousand other things.

i really loved how feminine she was at the same time as being strong. you can be powerful and kick ass, unashamedly girly and womanly and sensitive all at once, without erasing any of the other things to make way for the other. but lazy sloppy writing didn’t let these aspects of her character shine.

i liked how Bong Soon, for the most part, was very unlike her mother. her mother was abusive and mean and even though the show tried to redeem her, she still should've been called out for her behaviour because if you’re gonna write how woman can be just as horrible as men who are domestic abusers then you better hold them to the same standard and let your viewers know that it’s wrong.

Bong Soon was flawed, and i’m not going to lie about that- but her flaws were used for comedy. and i don’t know if i like that or not.

i wasn’t a fan of how she favoured people over the other- like the case with sleeping Guk Doo and Minhyuk but now that i think about it... i don’t care if she treated Minhyuk meanly or cursed him behind his back.

the way she viewed her powers and the way she handled them... was a convoluted tangle. she wanted to keep her powers secret and couldn’t hurt people but ended up making a mess almost everywhere, she said she never used her powers to help people and we were supposed to see this decision she made to step up and use her powers for good as a turning point but we know she’d been doing kind things with her powers for a while by helping old grannies up streets and saving people from the fate of a broken bus. her relationship with her family gift is not clear. there is no clear arc in this story

she’s not a fantastic female lead, which should’ve been the case since, well, THE SHOW IS NAMED AFTER HER AND HER STRENGTH. so that’s disappointing.

but again, in the hands of capable writers, she could’ve been an audience favourite.

Guk Doo: at first, we all pretty much hated him. whenever he came on screen i felt like i was suffering for some sin i committed in the past week.

but in the end, as we got to see how he felt about Bong Soon and when he found out about her powers- i really liked him. i liked him when he told his (not great) girlfriend about how he felt about someone else. in fact, i liked Guk Doo because he was never short of caring. even though he was busy and forgetful, he always tried to make up for it. he still cared about her. okay so maybe the whole bit where he realised he loved Bong Soon was a mess but again there’s the case of rubbish writing.

he didn’t think Bong Soon was fragile and needed protecting because she’s a small women. he didn’t say his type of woman has to be small and flowery and fragile out of vanity or misogyny... he says it because that’s what he thought Bong Soon was, as she led him to believe. I phrased that badly but in short i’m saying he loved Bong Soon as he thought she was, and loved her still and as much with her powers in a way that felt sweet and sad (because as that moment rolled around when he found out about her powers, her heart was already somewhere else).

dramabeans said it better and i’ll paraphrase: this image of his ideal women that he painted out loud was based around Bong Soon and when he find out about her powers and how she’s not as weak as she led him to believe, that feeling of love didn’t change.

he was also mature and almost gentle while he handled the discovery of her secret, fairly well might i add, as he realised all the things he missed as they were growing up.

the villain: awful, who’s crimes on screen could potentially hurt people who’ve been abused in the past as they watch. the fact that the point in this was to have a women hater be defeated by a powerful woman was not driven home well. it could’ve been so good but instead we got a noodley thin version of this premise.

side characters: they were tiring. we didn’t need half of them. some stayed too long and the joke soon turned stale. some where offensive. Guk Doo’s girlfriend all i can say is... at least she talked to him and was honest in the end (after doing things behind his back).

in conclusion:

i’m tired of people saying that the main pair are a power couple and that they’re the otp of all otp’s.

the show is so overrated. it deserves the harsh comments that come it’s way. it was rampant with offensive bits for laughs and maybe we could let this show slide if it weren’t for these rubbish jokes, and how serious it took it’s main themes of women and power only to botch it completely.

other people's posts have been much more concise and articulate as they describe what i’ve talked about. these are just the thought’s i had to get out of my sore head.

here is a post that is very clear about what’s wrong with this show, in a much quicker way. and i whole heatedly agree with it.

anyways. yeah this was rubbish and if you have high hopes for this like most of us did, then you’ll be sorely disappointed.

#strong woman do bong soon #swdbs #kdramanetwork #kdrama review #tumbly reviews #sorry for any typos!! this is basically a hate post i really couldn't be bothered being objective lmfaooo

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thrashermaxey · 6 years

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Ramblings: Hoffman, Pacioretty, Couture, Bozak, Ferland, and Roussel – July 12

In just three weeks, the 2018-19 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide will be released. Be sure to head to the Dobber Shop to grab your copy! The guide is updated periodically until the season begins to reflect trades, injuries, and new line combinations, so even if you’re early, you won’t miss out on up-to-date information.

Dominik Bokk signed his entry-level contract with the Blues on Wednesday and it seems he’ll be headed back to Sweden for the 2018-19 season. With the bevy of signings and trades St. Louis has made in the last few weeks, there’s no real need to rush the sniping prospect into the NHL. I know dynasty owners are going to be disappointed but it’s the right call.

In talking with Cam Robinson around draft time, Bokk was a guy he mentioned among the non-elite to keep an eye on. St. Louis evidently thought the same thing as they traded up to draft him. The more I read about him, the more impressed I am with him though it seems the hockey community is kind of split on him. Some saw him as a mid-first pick, some didn’t see the potential. I’m starting to be a believer, though the usual disclaimer applies: I’m not a prospects writer nor do I scout them. I rely on the excellent work of people like Cam.

You can read Bokk's Dobber Prospects profile here.

Nothing fantasy hockey related, but a pretty fun read from Adam Gretz at Pro Hockey Talk about the Jaromir Jagr trade out of Pittsburgh all those years ago.

Just to reiterate something about the Florida Panthers: one of Mike Hoffman and Evgeni Dadonov will not be on the top PP unit this year (for the most part). Now, Dadonov did not really need a bevy of PP points to perform well last year, so he can still be a 55- or 60-point guy without that slotting. If Hoffman is to top 30 goals for the first time in his career, though, he does need those minutes. Keep that in mind when draft season approaches.

Something I noticed while trying to figure out San Jose’s line combinations for next year: Logan Couture has seen is individual shot-on-goal rate per 60 minutes at five-on-five decline every year since the lockout season. In 2017-18, he ranked 170th out of 367 forwards with at least 500 minutes in shots/60 minutes. Five years ago at the end of the lockout year, he was 29th out of 339 forwards with at least 300 minutes. In total, his shots/60 has declined about 34 percent over the last five seasons. We expect decline as a player ages but he’s still in his twenties and that decline came largely from age 24 through age 27.

Line mates? Role? Being more selective (his two highest shooting percentage seasons are the last two years)? Regardless, it’s going to be hard for him to repeat 30 goals if his shot totals don’t grow.

We’re hitting the quiet part of the off season. As far as trades are concerned, it seems inevitable both Max Pacioretty and Erik Karlsson are moved, it’s just a matter of when. We can probably add Jeff Skinner to that list as well. There are some cases going through arbitration from RFAs deserving of big contracts like Mark Stone, Jason Zucker, and William Karlsson. The signing of Patrick Maroon (you can read the fantasy impact here) basically means all the big-name UFAs are signed. In all, outside a few trades, there’s not much left until training camps hit.

As a side note, something I realized while writing these Ramblings: the Western Conference as a whole, outside of St. Louis and Calgary, didn’t really do a whole lot this off season, did they?

Chicago’s biggest signing might be Cam Ward.

Colorado signed some depth with Ian Cole and Matt Calvert.

The biggest addition/signing between Dallas, Minnesota, Nashville, and Winnipeg, four teams with Cup aspirations, is probably Blake Comeau? I guess Valeri Nichushkin though he’s really just a returning player.

The Kings signed Ilya Kovalchuk which may not be that big of a get depending how he performs.

Vancouver… well we’ll leave Vancouver alone. They know what they did.

Arizona added a few forwards but Alex Galchenyuk may be the only player of serious impact, and even that’s uncertain.

The Blues and Flames made pretty significant changes while most largely stood pat or handed out tens of millions of dollars to fourth liners. I suppose Erik Karlsson could change that equation if he does land somewhere like Dallas.

On the topic of UFAs, I think it’s worth reviewing the landing spots of some of the bigger names in new destinations either via trade or free agency. Too often, fantasy owners (present company included) just hand-wave a player going to a new team who seems to be just going into the same role on a new team and assume constant production.

Here are a few players whose production probably declines with their new team.

Tyler Bozak

Bozak’s signing is solid for the Blues in terms of getting them a true third-line centre who can facilitate for their scoring wingers. In terms of fantasy hockey, owners need to realize that Bozak, going into his age-32 season, has one 50-point campaign (2016-17) and one 20-goal campaign (2014-15).

He’s going to a situation in St. Louis where his role at five-on-five won’t change much – third line in a sheltered role with talented wingers – but he will probably lose significant power-play minutes; Schenn-Schwartz-Tarasenko will eat a lot of minutes on a top unit while Ryan O’Reilly likely figures as the fourth. Losing just 30 seconds on the power play per game, which is a conservative estimate, will see him lose 3-4 points off his total from last year assuming constant goal rates. It’s that double-whammy where not only does his overall production decline, but his PP production as well, reducing his value in multiple roto categories.

He’s never been a multi-category performer so Bozak is basically only to be drafted in deep leagues or leagues that count face-offs. Though he’s going to what appears to be a very good St. Louis team going into 2018-19, the loss of power-play time is going to be a hit to what was already his meagre fantasy value.

Micheal Ferland

As I mentioned in a review of the free agent signings a couple weeks ago, we’ve probably seen the best fantasy season we’re going to see from Ferland unless we see some dramatic changes to the Carolina roster. Last year saw a big jump in five-on-five ice time per game, garnering 1:45 more per game than his previous career-high. While the uncertainty around Jeff Skinner’s situation means there are likely more changes coming to this Carolina roster, as it stands right now, Teuvo Teravainen and Justin Williams are ahead of Ferland on the right side. They also just drafted a potential star in Andrei Svechnikov. If Svechnikov shows well early in the season, Ferland could find himself on the fourth line.

Now, Ferland is a left-handed shot even though he often played the right wing often in Calgary. But even if they moved him to the left side, he’s still behind Sebastian Aho and Skinner (for now). Brock McGinn had a solid season last year, Valentin Zykov showed promise down the stretch, and they added Jordan Martinook. If Skinner is moved and they don’t add another left winger, maybe Ferland ends up as the second-line left winger. But Skinner would have to be traded, the team would have to decide to move him to the left wing, and he’d have to outperform a few players to maintain that role. His best-case right now is that he’s moved around the middle-six for the Hurricanes, which is still a huge downgrade from spending nearly three-quarters of a season on a top line with Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan.

Without top power-play minutes, which he won’t get, and top-line slotting, which he also won’t get, it’s very, very hard to see Ferland repeating 20 goals and 40 points. He can still be fine with a 15-15 season in leagues that count hits, but this is a serious downgrade for him.

Antoine Roussel

I suppose no one drafts Roussel for point production. He’s drafted for triple-digit penalty minute and hit totals. And his shooting percentage is going to rebound from the 5.9 percent he shot last year, a far cry from his 12.7 percent shooting for his career going into the 2017-18 season.

All the same, anyone not playing on the top line for the Canucks is going to have a hard time scoring this year. There are a lot of hopes pinned on the likes of Elias Pettersson and Adam Gaudette but for now they’re still unproven rookies. In his last decent offensive season, Roussel was spending significant minutes with Tyler Seguin. I can’t imagine he gets a real shot with Bo Horvat and Brock Boeser.

Again, Roussel is going to spend time with unproven rookies or someone like Brandon Sutter. That’s with mediocre (at best) puck-moving defencemen behind them which may or may not include Chris Tanev in the near future. Despite being a rat on the ice, he’s an effective player. The problem is he may not get the same chance in Vancouver that he did at times in Dallas. A 25-point season would be a huge win. Though, as mentioned above, he’s not really drafted in fantasy for his point totals.

Though the rumours for years have been that Max Pacioretty is on his way out the door, M-A Godin of The Athletic says that a trade is going to happen soon, given that the team will not negotiate a contract extension with him. It seems the tenure of one of the top goal scorers in a generation of the team’s history is over.

That’s not hyperbole, either. Though he’s not near the top of the franchise list in total goals scored, he did have one of the best peaks in team history. He was late to the NHL and suffered injuries, so his first full season was 2011-12 at the age of 23. In the six seasons from the age of 23 to the age of 28, he scored 189 goals in 439 games, or 0.43 goals per game. That is the highest goals per game mark of any Habs player since the mid-1980s. Quite literally, Montreal fans waited nearly three decades for a goal scorer as consistent and prolific as Pacioretty.

Wherever he ends up, hopefully he’s embraced by his new fan base. During his peak, Pacioretty was among the top wingers in the league and 2017-18 saw a decline due to injury. If he’s healthy when he returns, his new team will get a tried-and-true top-line left winger.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-hoffman-couture-bozak-ferland-and-roussel-july-12/

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