#top 10 most nominated go to a poll | Explore Tumblr Posts and Blogs

batboyblog · 2 years

Text

Senate 2022: You'd Better Vote!

If you're an American VERY IMPORTANT! elections are coming up on November 8th. Since the 2020 election the US Senate has been tied at 50 Democrats and 50 Republicans with Vice-President Harris casting the tie breaking vote that gives Democrats their majority. Even with such a tight margin Democrats have managed to pass the largest climate action taken by any country so far on earth (yet), lower prescription drug costs, pass the first gun control law since the 1990s , made lynching a federal crime after over 100 years of trying, made Juneteenth a federal holiday, confirmed the first black woman ever to serve on the Supreme Court, passed a trillion dollar infrastructure bill to rebuild our roads, bridges, transportation, better internet, clean water, and support electric cars, saved the US Post Office, passed a renewal of the Violence Against Women Act which had been in limbo since 2019.

Imagine all that the Democrats in the Senate could get done in the next 2 years with a stable majority? On the Flip side if Republicans net just one seat Mitch McConnell has made it clear there will be no progress if he's majority leader again. There are 35 Senate seats up on November 8th, I'm gonna list out the 9 seats with vulnerable Democrats who need re-electing and seats Democrats can flip to expand their majority. Everyone needs to vote, but voting is the start, the most basic thing you need to do, if you live in any of these states PLEASE sign up to volunteer for these candidates, to go talk to voters, to register new voters, to give rides to the polls etc. If you don't live in any of these states, you can still volunteer to make phone calls or text voters it's easy! if you have money to give please please give money campaigns are so expensive. Finally most of these campaigns have merch shops so if you feed more comfortable buying a shirt or a bag or whatever do that lots of them have cool pro-choice things.

Arizona

Mark Kelly (Re-elect)

Senator Mark Kelly was elected in a special election in 2020 and is running for a full term this year. Kelly is a former astronaut and the husband of gun violence survivor and gun control advocate Gabby Giffords. Kelly is a strong supporter of gun control an issue he's worked on with Giffords as an activist for 10 years before Congress. Republicans have nominated Blake Masters, who worked for one of Trump's top supporters, Peter Thiel, Thiel spent 13 million dollars to get Masters nominated. Masters calls himself a "America First Conservative" and a "hard-core nationalist". Masters has embraced the racist "Great Replacement" conspiracy theory, supports Trump's conspiracy theories about the 2020 election being stolen, is against gay marriage, says gun violence is all the fault of black people, and is against aid to Ukraine. Kelly is a good democrat, Masters is a white nationalist and election denier, we need Kelly back in the Senate, and we need to keep Masters far far away

VOTE VOLUNTEER DONATE SHOP

Florida

Val Demings (Flip)

Congresswoman Val Demings has represented the city of Orlando in the US House since 2017. Before that she served as Orlando's first woman chief of police. In Congress Demings has used her law enforcement background to lend credibility to gun control and police reform. Demings also served as one of the impeachment managers in Trump's first impeachment trial. If elected Val Demings will be Florida's first woman and first black Senator. Demings is running to unseat Republican Senator Marco Rubio. After running against Trump in the 2016 primaries Rubio became one of Trump's biggest supporters in Congress. Rubio reacted to the Parkland shooting in his state by doubling down on opposing any gun control, Val Demings voted to ban assault rifles. Rubio has also been a cheerleader for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis' anti-LGBT/anti-Trans policies that bully queer students in Florida, he doesn't believe in the right to same sex marriage and is for banning books. Rubio also wants a total ban on abortion in all cases, Val Demings has a 100% rating from NARAL Pro-Choice America. Florida needs a strong supporter of Gun control, climate action, the right to choose, and LGBT rights in the Senate, Florida needs Demings not Rubio

VOTE VOLUNTEER DONATE SHOP

Georgia

Raphael Warnock (re-elect)

Senator Raphael Warnock was elected in a special election in 2020 and is running for a full 6 year term this year. Warnock is the first black senator from the State of Georgia and the first Democrat elected in 20 years. Before becoming a senator Warnock was the pastor of the historic Ebenezer Baptist Church, which was Dr. Martin Luther King Jr's church and a center of the 1960s civil rights movement. Warnock used his position to protest and fight against the death penalty, to expand medicare in Georgia, for gun control, and for voting rights. In the Senate, Senator Warnock has been one of the most outspoken on voting rights pushing the John Lewis Voting Rights Act named after his late friend Georgia Congressman John Lewis. Republicans for nominated former football player, and Trump super fan, Herschel Walker to try to unseat Senator Warnock. Walker vocally supported Trump's election lies, posting many times on social media that Biden did not win the 2020 election. Walker declared this week that climate action was "giving money to trees" and "don't we have enough trees?". Walker believes in a total ban on abortion, and is against LGBT rights. Walker is against gun control and floated the idea of the government monitoring all social media and internet usage by Americans instead of gun control. Walker beat his now ex-wife Cindy Grossman, and threatened her with a gun and knives multiple times, after the divorce Grossman feared Walker would kill her and her boyfriend. Walker also is a dead beat dad who has a number of children out of wedlock that he has no contact with, he has criticized black men many times for being absent fathers. The US Senate doesn't need a man who threatens to shoot women, re-elect Senator Warnock.

VOTE VOLUNTEER DONATE SHOP

Nevada

Catherine Cortez Masto (re-elect)

Senator Catherine Cortez Masto was narrowly elected in 2016 and his running for her second term in the Senate. Senator Cortez Masto is the first women elected to represent Nevada in the Senate and the first and to date ONLY Latina elected to the US Senate. When she was Nevada's attorney general Cortez Masto sued Bank of America for it's predatory lending practices and won nearly a billion dollars against the bank. As a US Senator Cortez Masto has been a major supporter of clean energy jobs and hopes to turn Nevada into the solar energy capital of America. Republicans have nominated former Nevada attorney general Adam Laxalt to try to unseat Cortez Masto. Laxalt spent his time as AG (2015-2019) suing the Obama Administration EPA to fight against strong climate regulations. Laxalt opposed a multi-state law suit against ExxonMobil for it's role in downplaying Climate change. Laxalt also sued the Obama administration to stop DACA, filed briefs supporting radical anti-abortion laws from Texas and Mississippi when they went to court, and sued the Obama Department of Labor to stop certain workers being paid over time. After leaving office Laxalt was the Chairman of Trump's 2020 re-election effort in Nevada. As Chairman Laxalt was the leading figure in the election conspiracy in Nevada claiming the election in his state was fraudulent and Biden hadn't really won Nevada. Laxalt has made many false claims of election fraud in Nevada in the 2020 election. Laxalt launched his 2022 campaign for Senate claiming "woke corporations" "academia" and "the radical left" have taken over America. Nevada has to send Cortez Masto, the only Latina in the Senate, back for another term, Laxalt is dangerously unfit.

VOTE VOLUNTEER DONATE SHOP

New Hampshire

Maggie Hassan (re-elect)

Senator Maggie Hassan was elected in the closest senate race of 2016 and is running for her second term in the senate. Senator Hassan was a key vote to save Obamacare from repel in 2017. During her time in the US Senate Senator Hassan has helped pass bills to more than double the funding to help treat the opioid crisis as well as banning surprise medical billing. Senator Hassan first ran for office 20 years ago as a way to advocate for her son who has Cerebral palsy, she's been a strong advocate for disability rights and special education through out her time in public service. Because New Hampshire has one of the latest primaries (September 13th) we don't know for sure which Republican will be nominated to face her in November. The front runner is a retired general named Don Bolduc. Bolduc's first foray into into politics was spinning and supporting 2020 election denial conspiracy theories, even after the January 6th riot. Bolduc has closely tied himself to Trump. Bolduc called fellow Republican, New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu "Chinese Communist sympathizer" and accused him of "supports terrorism" for not being conservative enough and loyal to Trump enough. New Hampshire should send back a Senator who gets things done and not a wing-nut calling people in his own party communists and terrorists.

VOTE VOLUNTEER DONATE

North Carolina

Cheri Beasley (flip)

Former Chief Justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court Cheri Beasley is running to fill a Senate seat opened up by the retirement of Republican Senator Richard Burr. In 2008 Beasley became the first black women to win a state wide election in North Carolina when she was elected to the Court of Appeals. In 2012 she was appointed to the state Supreme Court and won election in 2014. She was appointed the Chief Justice in 2019 the first black woman to serve as the State's Chief Justice. Beasley lost by less than 500 votes her run for a full term as Chief Justice in 2020. In her time as a public defender and elected Judge and Justice Beasley has stressed fairness and equity. If elected she'd be the first black Senator from North Carolina. She's stressed health care and abortion rights as key issues of her campaign. Republicans have nominated Congressman Ted Budd to try to fill the seat. Congressman Budd is a member of the radical "House Freedom Caucus". He voted to repeal Obamacare in 2017. Budd was also a major support of Trump's attempt to over throw the result of the 2020 election. Congressman Budd voted against certifying the election result on January 6th, even after the capital had been stormed by violent Trump supporters. Budd is Trump's hand picked candidate for the North Carolina Senate seat, Budd only launched his campaign after meeting with Trump in Mar-a-Lago. North Carolina doesn't need an election denying Trump toady for Senator, send Cheri Beasley to Congress.

VOTE VOLUNTEER DONATE SHOP

Ohio

Tim Ryan (flip)

Congressman Tim Ryan is running to fill a Senate seat being opened up by the retirement of Republican Senator Rob Portman. Congressman Ryan has represented the Youngstown area of Ohio since 2003. In his time in Congress Ryan has been a champion of unions and American workers. His Senate run is focused on protecting American manufacturing jobs and bring well paying union jobs back to the American heart land. Ryan is strongly pro-choice. Republicans have nominated author and venture capitalist JD Vance. Vance is closely tied to Trump money man Peter Thiel as well as Arizona candidate and white nationalist Blake Masters. Vance has publicly said that women should stay in abusive marriages. Vance is against abortion in all cases even rape or health of the mother. Vance has also publicly stated he sees the populist, antisemitic, anti-LGBT dictatorship of Hungarian Prime Minster Viktor Orbán as a model for America. Vance talked about how he hopes in a second Trump term to purge all civil servants who don't agree with Trumpism and replace them with "our people". America does not need a pro-fascist who supports wife beating in the Senate, send Tim Ryan to the Senate instead.

VOTE VOLUNTEER DONATE SHOP

Pennsylvania

John Fetterman (flip)

Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman is running to fill a seat opened by the retirement of Republican Senator Pat Toomey. First elected Lt Governor in 2018 Fetterman has used his platform to advocate the legalization of marijuana. Fetterman also is a vocal supporter of the LGBT community clashing with the Republican state legislature repeatedly about the display of a pride flag off the balcony of his official office at the state capital. Fetterman is running a campaign that is strongly pro-choice, supportive of criminal justice reform, and calls healthcare a human right. Republicans have nominated Mehmet Oz, better known as Dr. Oz. As a reality TV star "physician" Oz was criticized repeatedly for advocating fake cures and dangerous weight loss pills. During the Covid-19 pandemic Oz pushed Trump's favorite fake cure, Hydroxychloroquine, which is not a treatment for Covid. While running for the senate Oz has endorsed banning trans people from sports by law, and that trans youth are based on "false science". Oz is also says he'd vote to repeal Obamacare and strongly supports fracking. Pennsylvania doesn't need a flip flopping TV huckster from New Jersey as its Senator, election Fetterman.

VOTE VOLUNTEER DONATE SHOP

Wisconsin

Mandela Barnes (flip)

Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes is running to unseat Republican Senator Ron Johnson. Barnes served in the state legislature from 2013 till 2017 before being elected Lt Governor in 2018, he is the first black person to win state wide office in Wisconsin. As Lt Governor Barnes served as the chair of the Climate Task Force putting forward a 55 point plan to combat climate change. Barnes has been a vocal supporter of policies like Medicare for All, a Green New Deal, and marijuana legalization. If elected Barnes would be the first black Senator from Wisconsin and one of only two Senators in their 30s. Incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson has been Wisconsin's Senator since 2010 and is running for his 3rd term in office. In the Senate Johnson was one of Trump's strongest allies. Johnson was one of the main congressional pushers of the 2020 election conspiracy theories to the point his home town paper the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel called him a member of the "Sedition Caucus". Johnson also has pushed conspiracy theories that the January 6th riot was the fault of Nancy Pelosi or the FBI, and said he didn't think it was a big deal and felt safe during the attack because they were Trump supporters. Johnson has also pushed Covid misinformation, such as mouthwash as a treatment for Covid-19 or that "thousands" of deaths had been linked to the vaccine. Johnson has blamed mass shootings on a failure to teach "values" and is against gun control. in resent weeks Johnson has floated the idea of privatizing Social Security and Medicare. Protect Social Security, send Barnes to Congress.

VOTE VOLUNTEER DONATE SHOP

If you're one of the 85 million Americans who live in one of these States please PLEASE PLEASE remember to VOTE November 8th

Everyone remember to VOTE NOVEMBER 8th! vote in EVERY election from School Board on up to Governor and Senate, now more than ever all these elections matter and they matter a lot.

if you have $10, $5, even $1 to spare please please please think about giving it to one of these candidates, Democrats are passing big things and are running against the worst of the worst.

If you live in one of these states please please PLEASE think about giving just one weekend between now and Election Day to talk to voters and help turn out the vote. Even if you don't live in any of these states you can call or text voters in these states and help these campaigns

#Politics #US politics #Democrats #Senate #Florida #pennsylvania #Ohio #Georgia #Arizona #election #vote #voting #November 8th

6K notes · View notes

d20unfuckability · 1 year

Text

Logistical Transparency and Tournament Schedule

Y'all very much want a massive tourney situation, so here's how it's gonna go. (Bear with me, this is gonna get long, but I want to be perfectly transparent in how this is going to go.)

The submission form will stay open until 4:45 Pacific time on Friday, March 31.

On weekends, polls will go up probably around 9 pacific time, but it could be a bit earlier or later, my sleep schedule is weird and I'm not gonna set alarms for this.

On weekdays, they'll go up at around 6pm pacific time.

(Dates and times are subject to change. I'm one person running this, and life gets in the way sometimes)

The way the tournament is going to work will be as follows:

Stage Zero: Seeding (me doing math and logistics)

As I mentioned in the original post with the form, the submissions are ranked choice. First entries are 2 points, second are 1.5, third are 1.

Seeding will primarily be based on point total, with tie breakers going to total number of submissions. So far, this breaks all ties in the upper bracket. I'll figure something out if that changes.

(When we get to people who were only nominated once or twice, I'm gonna make calls myself. The number of unique characters has jumped up to 164, 78 of which have only been nominated once. Cuts will have to be made with no objective way to call it, and it's my tournament.)

The top 60 will get seeded into the main bracket- your standard 4 sets of 16, with the 16th seed in each being empty for the time being.

The 64 below that will be seeded into a secondary bracket.

I'll get it done Friday night/Saturday morning, so polls can go up the morning of April 1.

(I'm still working out the best way to separate the characters into the groups as fairly as possible. To some extent, I think a stacked quadrant is inevitable, but I'll do what I can to avoid that. I want this to be fair and fun.)

Stage One: Play-Ins (voting begins)

The lower bracket will be run in day-long polls up until we get to a final 4. Those 4 will be the 16th seeds in the main event, and I'll probably make the call for which goes where by setting up what I think would be the most interesting 1 vs 16 match-up.

April 1-4: Round One, one quadrant's 16 a day (8 polls/day)

April 5: Neverafter day, no new polls

April 6-7: Round Two, two quadrants' top 8 a day (8 polls/day)

April 8 and 9 is Easter weekend- no polls.

April 10: Round Three, Top 16 (8 polls)

April 11: Round Four, Top 8, (4 polls), winners go to the main event

April 12 is the Neverafter finale, I believe, so I'm going to take the rest of that week off, take a breath, and get ready for the main event.

Stage Two: The Main Event

Roughly the same schedule as play-ins, but without a weekend break. If there was a 3-day option for polls, the top 8 through the finals would be that, but since it's 1 day or a week, they're all gonna be one day except for the finals, which I'll extend to a whole week.

April 15-18: Round One, 8 polls a day

April 19-20: Round Two, 8 polls a day

April 21: Round Three, Top 16, 8 polls

April 22: Quarter Finals, 4 polls

April 23: Semi Finals, 2 polls

April 25: Finals! 1 week-long poll!

It's gonna be one hell of a month, y'all!

37 notes · View notes

baronetcoins · 6 months

Text

Tagged in 20 questions for fic writers, by the dearly beloved @chiropteracupola

1. How many works do you have on AO3?

94! So far.

2. What’s your total AO3 word count?

169,588

3. What fandoms do you write for?

Uh that's a good question innit. At the Moment, I'd say I have destiny wips, DSMP wips, 3rd life wips, Henry V wips, and Temeraire wips.

4. What are your top 5 fics by kudos?

May Your Days Be Merry and Bright

I will never say the word "procrastinate" again

Who's on first?

I'm something else when I see you

I felt a Funeral, in my Brain

5. Do you respond to comments? Why or why not?

I try to! A, I know that when my comments get responded to it encourages me to leave more in the future so I try to do so from the other end as well. B, my mom used to yell at me for not replying to her texts because she wouldn't know if I'd read it, and that attitude has carried off into the rest of my life.

6. What is the fic you wrote with the angstiest ending?

Okay for this one I polled my friends because I’m not a good judge of how angsty something is. M, the beta for Oberth Maneuver and half my other works suggested that one, because “you’ve made me cry multiple times w it so”. Kangoo suggested Ophiocordyceps.

7. What’s the fic you wrote with the happiest ending?

Oh pshh I dunno—I’m only counting stuff that’s longer than a single scene for this, because otherwise it’s not really an “ending”, is it? Gonna nominate either You'll always be my favorite ghost or I felt a funeral.

8. Do you get hate on fics?

Oh thank god, no. A kind of pushy anon once who wanted to know about the next update, but not hate.

9. Do you write smut? If so, what kind?

uh. no. i'm. i'm Very ace. i don't remember people have sex unless I'm reminded of it. I can barely bring myself to write kissing.

10. Do you write crossovers? What’s the craziest one you’ve written?

SDKLFJJDSKLFJKSDLJ yeah i write crossovers. My first ever longfic was/is a crossover. I love crossovers. what if I put the guys from one situation in a different situation? Craziest… either Oberth Maneuver for length and investment, dawn breaks (like a fallen vase) for sheer obscurity factor, or then i don't want to be me anymore for mixing perhaps the most incongruous source material.

11. Have you ever had a fic stolen?

Nope.

12. Have you ever had a fic translated?

No! But I really Want to translate I've no language left to say it because that fic is all about language barriers, and I think that would be a fun layer of meta. Someday I'll feel confident to take a stab at doing it in spanish.

13. Have you ever co-written a fic before?

Yeah! Let my memory live (but darling, carry on) with Kangoo and Kingstealer.

14. What’s your all time favourite ship?

Henry V/Montjoy, Probably. But IDK.

15. What’s a WIP you want to finish but doubt you ever will?

oh eugh I dunno I don't like giving up on Anything but probably the desert duo star wars AU? I liked it and I have ideas for where I want it to go but just..... there are ideas I'm more excited about. You know how it is.

16. What are your writing strengths?

Dialogue! Dialogue dialogue dialogue. The playwrights I've worked with have mostly given kudos to my ability to write natural-sounding dialogue, and I'm very proud of it.

17. What are your writing weaknesses?

Eugh what isn't. Plots, description... but mostly, like... not rushing through things? I'm bad at letting stuff Linger.

18. Thoughts on writing dialogue in another language in fic?

Double check your work but otherwise, it's fine? Shoutout to my buddy Kangoo for being very willing to translate French for me.

19. First fandom you wrote for?

Destiny! Please don't go back and read those first fics. Don't. they're awful.

20. Favourite fic you’ve written?

Ahhh my answer to this changes depending on the day! Right now I'm going to say I'm still here (but all is lost) because I love the way it plays with the metatext of a play. It's Fun.

Tagging, if you wish, @ranababamboo, @bidoofenergy, @jaz-it-up, @kangoo, and @arcaneglitch

#ask the baronet #talking about words

2 notes · View notes

spoilertv · 8 months

Text

#SpoilerTV

0 notes

tomorrowusa · 2 years

Video

youtube

It’s more than just a number. 51 Democratic seats in the US Senate would be disproportionately better than 50 seats.

David Nir describes why we need to help re-elect Sen. Raphael Warnock in the Georgia US Senate runoff...

A Warnock win sidelines Manchin and Sinema, but that's not the only reason to bust ass for him

Having 51 seats is a million times better than 50. First off, a larger majority reduces the influence that Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema have over the Democratic caucus. That alone is a showstopper. But it also means that Democrats would have more flexibility in the event of any absences—a real concern, given the age of many senators. On top of that, Kamala Harris would no longer have to be on standby to break ties.

Judicial nominations would move much faster. Under the deal reached between Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell last year—which McConnell dragged his feet on agreeing to—both parties were given equal numbers of seats on Senate committees. As a result, committee votes can end in ties. Most crucially, this has allowed Republicans on the Judiciary Committee to slow down judicial nominations because moving a tied nomination to the Senate floor requires the entire Senate to vote on a so-called “discharge motion.” With 51 seats, however, Democrats would have a majority on every committee. They’d be able to skip the discharge step, meaning Joe Biden’s nominees can receive confirmation votes before the full Senate much more rapidly.

Raphael Warnock is an amazing senator. The fact that Warnock was able to turn Georgia blue and, along with Jon Ossoff, secure the most unlikely of majorities for us in the 2021 runoffs is a testament to his remarkable connection with Georgia voters. In office, Warnock’s priorities have always been in the right place. It would be easy for a freshman senator in a swing state to want to “distance” himself from his party, but Warnock has been with us on everything. He’s also been Democrats’ foremost leader in the fight to cap the price of insulin.

Black representation matters, period. Warnock is one of just two Black Democrats in the Senate, but this is about so much more. Do Democrats really want to tell Black Americans—the party’s most loyal constituency—that we didn’t give it our all to re-elect Warnock? And it’s not simply a matter of electing a Black candidate, as Republicans reductively want to believe, but about electing the candidate who’s the choice of Black voters. That choice couldn’t be clearer: According to exit polls, 90% of Black Georgians cast ballots for Warnock.

Herschel Walker is unfit to serve in the Senate. Walker is a dangerous serial liar who has been accused of abusive, violent behavior by those closest to him. He belongs nowhere near Congress.

The 2024 Senate map is very tough for Democrats. We need to pad our majority right now because in two years, we’re going to be defending 23 seats while Republicans will only have to protect 10. What’s more, our list includes three red states—Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia—and 10 more potential swing states. To ensure our party’s long-term prospects, we’ve got to focus on the present.

With just 50 Democrats, we’re never more than one bad heart attack or car crash from losing the Senate majority; there are a number of Democratic senators from states with GOP governors.

Also, this is the first Senate election since Trump’s announcement that he’s running in 2024. Here’s a chance to deliver a high profile defeat to his handpicked stooge Herschel Walker.

With the House of Representatives about to come under narrow GOP control, it’s vital to shore up the Democratic majority in the Senate.

You don’t have to live in Georgia to help Raphael Warnock defeat Trump’s puppet Herschel Walker...

Runoff - Warnock for Georgia

#raphael warnock #georgia #georgia us senate runoff #us senate #election 2022 #re-elect warnock #herschel walker #trump stooge #donald trump #trump republicans #democratic senate majority

1 note · View note

transgenderteensurvivalguide · 3 years

Link

“Elliot Page doesn’t remember exactly how long he had been asking.

But he does remember the acute feeling of triumph when, around age 9, he was finally allowed to cut his hair short. “I felt like a boy,” Page says. “I wanted to be a boy. I would ask my mom if I could be someday.” Growing up in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Page visualized himself as a boy in imaginary games, freed from the discomfort of how other people saw him: as a girl. After the haircut, strangers finally started perceiving him the way he saw himself, and it felt both right and exciting.

The joy was short-lived. Months later, Page got his first break, landing a part as a daughter in a Canadian mining family in the TV movie Pit Pony. He wore a wig for the film, and when Pit Pony became a TV show, he grew his hair out again. “I became a professional actor at the age of 10,” Page says. And pursuing that passion came with a difficult compromise. “Of course I had to look a certain way.”

We are speaking in late February. It is the first interview Page, 34, has given since disclosing in December that he is transgender, in a heartfelt letter posted to Instagram, and he is crying before I have even uttered a question. “Sorry, I’m going to be emotional, but that’s cool, right?” he says, smiling through his tears.

It’s hard for him to talk about the days that led up to that disclosure. When I ask how he was feeling, he looks away, his neck exposed by a new short haircut. After a pause, he presses his hand to his heart and closes his eyes. “This feeling of true excitement and deep gratitude to have made it to this point in my life,” he says, “mixed with a lot of fear and anxiety.”

It’s not hard to understand why a trans person would be dealing with conflicting feelings in this moment. Increased social acceptance has led to more young people describing themselves as trans—1.8% of Gen Z compared with 0.2% of boomers, according to a recent Gallup poll—yet this has fueled conservatives who are stoking fears about a “transgender craze.” President Joe Biden has restored the right of transgender military members to serve openly, and in Hollywood, trans people have never had more meaningful time onscreen. Meanwhile, J.K. Rowling is leveraging her cultural capital to oppose transgender equality in the name of feminism, and lawmakers are arguing in the halls of Congress over the validity of gender identities. “Sex has become a political football in the culture wars,” says Chase Strangio, deputy director for transgender justice at the ACLU.

(Full article with photos continued under the “read more”)

And so Page—who charmed America as a precocious pregnant teenager in Juno, constructed dreamscapes in Inception and now stars in Netflix’s hit superhero show The Umbrella Academy, the third season of which he’s filming in Toronto—expected that his news would be met with both applause and vitriol. “What I was anticipating was a lot of support and love and a massive amount of hatred and transphobia,” says Page. “That’s essentially what happened.” What he did not anticipate was just how big this story would be. Page’s announcement, which made him one of the most famous out trans people in the world, started trending on Twitter in more than 20 countries. He gained more than 400,000 new followers on Instagram on that day alone. Thousands of articles were published. Likes and shares reached the millions. Right-wing podcasters readied their rhetoric about “women in men’s locker rooms.” Casting directors reached out to Page’s manager saying it would be an honor to cast Page in their next big movie.

So, it was a lot. Over the course of two conversations, Page will say that understanding himself in all the specifics remains a work in progress. Fathoming one’s gender, an identity innate and performed, personal and social, fixed and evolving, is complicated enough without being under a spotlight that never seems to turn off. But having arrived at a critical juncture, Page feels a deep sense of responsibility to share his truth. “Extremely influential people are spreading these myths and damaging rhetoric—every day you’re seeing our existence debated,” Page says. “Transgender people are so very real.”

That role in Pit Pony led to other productions and eventually, when Page was 16, to a film called Mouth to Mouth. Playing a young anarchist, Page had a chance to cut his hair again. This time, he shaved it off completely. The kids at his high school teased him, but in photos he has posted from that time on social media he looks at ease. Page’s head was still shaved when he mailed in an audition tape for the 2005 thriller Hard Candy. The people in charge of casting asked him to audition again in a wig. Soon, the hair was back.

Page’s tour de force performance in Hard Candy led, two years later, to Juno, a low-budget indie film that brought Page Oscar, BAFTA and Golden Globe nominations and sudden megafame. The actor, then 21, struggled with the stresses of that ascension. The endless primping, red carpets and magazine spreads were all agonizing reminders of the disconnect between how the world saw Page and who he knew himself to be. “I just never recognized myself,” Page says. “For a long time I could not even look at a photo of myself.” It was difficult to watch the movies too, especially ones in which he played more feminine roles.

Page loved making movies, but he also felt alienated by Hollywood and its standards. Alia Shawkat, a close friend and co-star in 2009’s Whip It,describes all the attention from Juno as scarring. “He had a really hard time with the press and expectations,” Shawkat says. “‘Put this on! And look this way! And this is sexy!’”

By the time he appeared in blockbusters like X-Men: The Last Stand and Inception, Page was suffering from depression, anxiety and panic attacks. He didn’t know, he says, “how to explain to people that even though [I was] an actor, just putting on a T-shirt cut for a woman would make me so unwell.” Shawkat recalls Page’s struggles with clothes. “I’d be like, ‘Hey, look at all these nice outfits you’re getting,’ and he would say, ‘It’s not me. It feels like a costume,’” she says. Page tried to convince himself that he was fine, that someone who was fortunate enough to have made it shouldn’t have complaints. But he felt exhausted by the work required to “just exist,” and thought more than once about quitting acting.

In 2014, Page came out as gay, despite feeling for years that “being out was impossible” given his career. (Gender identity and sexual orientation are, of course, distinct, but one queer identity can coexist with another.) In an emotional speech at a Human Rights Campaign conference, Page talked about being part of an industry “that places crushing standards” on actors and viewers alike. “There are pervasive stereotypes about masculinity and femininity that define how we’re all supposed to act, dress and speak,” Page went on. “And they serve no one.”

The actor started wearing suits on the red carpet. He found love, marrying choreographer Emma Portner in 2018. He asserted more agency in his career, producing his own films with LGBTQ leads like Freeheld and My Days of Mercy. And he made a masculine wardrobe a condition of taking roles. Yet the daily discord was becoming unbearable. “The difference in how I felt before coming out as gay to after was massive,” says Page. “But did the discomfort in my body ever go away? No, no, no, no.”

In part, it was the isolation forced by the pandemic that brought to a head Page’s wrestling with gender. (Page and Portner separated last summer, and the two divorced in early 2021. “We’ve remained close friends,” Page says.) “I had a lot of time on my own to really focus on things that I think, in so many ways, unconsciously, I was avoiding,” he says. He was inspired by trailblazing trans icons like Janet Mock and Laverne Cox, who found success in Hollywood while living authentically. Trans writers helped him understand his feelings; Page saw himself reflected in P. Carl’s memoir Becoming a Man. Eventually “shame and discomfort” gave way to revelation. “I was finally able to embrace being transgender,” Page says, “and letting myself fully become who I am.”

This led to a series of decisions. One was asking the world to call him by a different name, Elliot, which he says he’s always liked. Page has a tattoo that says E.P. PHONE HOME, a reference to a movie about a young boy with that name. “I loved E.T. when I was a kid and always wanted to look like the boys in the movies, right?” he says. The other decision was to use different pronouns—for the record, both he/him and they/them are fine. (When I ask if he has a preference on pronouns for the purposes of this story, Page says, “He/him is great.”)

A day before we first speak, Page will talk to his mom about this interview and she will tell him, “I’m just so proud of my son.” He grows emotional relating this and tries to explain that his mom, the daughter of a minister, who was born in the 1950s, was always trying to do what she thought was best for her child, even if that meant encouraging young Page to act like a girl. “She wants me to be who I am and supports me fully,” Page says. “It is a testament to how people really change.”

Another decision was to get top surgery. Page volunteers this information early in our conversation; at the time he posted his disclosure on Instagram, he was recovering in Toronto. Like many trans people, Page emphasizes being trans isn’t all about surgery. For some people, it’s unnecessary. For others, it’s unaffordable. For the wider world, the media’s focus on it has sensationalized transgender bodies, inviting invasive and inappropriate questions. But Page describes surgery as something that, for him, has made it possible to finally recognize himself when he looks in the mirror, providing catharsis he’s been waiting for since the “total hell” of puberty. “It has completely transformed my life,” he says. So much of his energy was spent on being uncomfortable in his body, he says. Now he has that energy back.

For the transgender community at large, visibility does not automatically lead to acceptance. Around the globe, transgender people deal disproportionately with violence and discrimination. Anti-trans hate crimes are on the rise in the U.K. along with increasingly transphobic rhetoric in newspapers and tabloids. In the U.S., in addition to the perennial challenges trans people face with issues like poverty and homelessness, a flurry of bills in state legislatures would make it a crime to provide transition-related medical care to trans youth. And crass old jokes are still in circulation. When Biden lifted the ban on open service for transgender troops, Saturday Night Live’s Michael Che did a bit on Weekend Update about the policy being called “don’t ask, don’t tuck.”

Page says coming out as trans was “selfish” on one level: “It’s for me. I want to live and be who I am.” But he also felt a moral imperative to do so, given the times. Human identity is complicated and mysterious, but politics insists on fitting everything into boxes. In today’s culture wars, simplistic beliefs about gender—e.g., chromosomes = destiny—are so widespread and so deep-seated that many people who hold those beliefs don’t feel compelled to consider whether they might be incomplete or prejudiced. On Feb. 24, after a passionate debate on legislation that would ban discrimination against LGBTQ people, Representative Marie Newman, an Illinois Democrat, proudly displayed the pride flag in support of her daughter, who is trans. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Georgia Republican, responded by hanging a poster outside her office that read: There are TWO genders: MALE & FEMALE.

The next day Dr. Rachel Levine, who stands to become the first openly transgender federal official confirmed by the Senate, endured a tirade from Senator Rand Paul about “genital mutilation” during her confirmation hearing. My second conversation with Page happens shortly after this. He brings it up almost immediately, and seems both heartbroken and determined. He wants to emphasize that top surgery, for him, was “not only life-changing but lifesaving.” He implores people to educate themselves about trans lives, to learn how crucial medical care can be, to understand that lack of access to it is one of the many reasons that an estimated 41% of transgender people have attempted suicide, according to one survey.

Page has been in the political trenches for a while, having leaned into progressive activism after coming out as queer in 2014. For two seasons, he and best friend Ian Daniel filmed Gaycation, a Viceland series that explored LGBTQ culture around the world and, at one point, showed Page grilling Senator Ted Cruz at the Iowa State Fair about discrimination against queer people. In 2019, Page made a documentary called There’s Something in the Water, which explores environmental hardships experienced by communities of color in Nova Scotia, with $350,000 of his own money. That activism extends to his own industry: in 2017, he published a Facebook post that, among other things, accused director Brett Ratner of forcibly outing him as gay on the set of an X-Men movie. (A representative for Ratner did not respond to a request for comment.)

As a trans person who is white, wealthy and famous, Page has a unique kind of privilege, and with it an opportunity to advocate for those with less. According to the U.S. Trans Survey, a large-scale report from 2015, transgender people of color are more likely to experience unemployment, harassment by police and refusals of medical care. Nearly half of all Black respondents reported being denied equal treatment, verbally harassed and/or physically attacked in the past year. Trans people as a group fare much worse on such stats than the general population. “My privilege has allowed me to have resources to get through and to be where I am today,” Page says, “and of course I want to use that privilege and platform to help in the ways I can.”

Since his disclosure, Page has been mostly quiet on social media. One exception has been to tweet on behalf of the ACLU, which is in the midst of fighting anti-trans bills and laws around the country, including those that ban transgender girls and women from participating in sports. Mississippi Governor Tate Reeves says he will sign such a bill in the name of “protect[ing] young girls.” Page played competitive soccer and vividly recalls the agony of being told he would have to play on the girls’ team once he aged out of mixed-gender squads. After an appeal, Page was allowed to play with the boys for an additional year. Today, several bills list genitalia as a requirement for deciding who plays on which team. “I would have been in that position as a kid,” Page says. “It’s horrific.”

All this advocacy is unlikely to make life easier. “You can’t enter into certain spaces as a public trans person,” says the ACLU’s Strangio, “without being prepared to spend some percentage of your life being threatened and harassed.” Yet, while he seems overwhelmed at times, Page is also eager. Many of the political attacks on trans people—whether it is a mandate that bathroom use be determined by birth sex, a blanket ban on medical interventions for trans kids or the suggestion that trans men are simply wayward women beguiled by male privilege—carry the same subtext: that trans people are mistaken about who they are. “We know who we are,” Page says. “People cling to these firm ideas [about gender] because it makes people feel safe. But if we could just celebrate all the wonderful complexities of people, the world would be such a better place.”

Even if Page weren’t vocal, his public presence would communicate something powerful. That is in part because of what Paisley Currah, a professor of political science at Brooklyn College, calls “visibility gaps.” Historically, trans women have been more visible, in culture and in Hollywood, than trans men. There are many explanations: Our culture is obsessed with femininity. Men’s bodies are less policed and scrutinized. Patriarchal people tend to get more emotional about who is considered to be in the same category as their daughters. “And a lot of trans men don’t stand out as trans,” says Currah, who is a trans man himself. “I think we’ve taken up less of the public’s attention because masculinity is sort of the norm.”

During our interviews, Page will repeatedly refer to himself as a “transgender guy.” He also calls himself nonbinary and queer, but for him, transmasculinity is at the center of the conversation right now. “It’s a complicated journey,” he says, “and an ongoing process.”

While the visibility gap means that trans men have been spared some of the hate endured by trans women, it has also meant that people like Page have had fewer models. “There were no examples,” Page says of growing up in Halifax in the 1990s. There are many queer people who have felt “that how they feel deep inside isn’t a real thing because they never saw it reflected back to them,” says Tiq Milan, an activist, author and transgender man. Page offers a reflection: “They can see that and say, ‘You know what, that’s who I am too,’” Milan says. When there aren’t examples, he says, “people make monsters of us.”

For decades, that was something Hollywood did. As detailed in the 2020 Netflix documentary Disclosure, transgender people have been portrayed onscreen as villainous and deceitful, tragic subplots or the butt of jokes. In a sign of just how far the industry has come—spurred on by productions like Pose and trailblazers like Mock—Netflix offered to change the credits on The Umbrella Academy the same day that its star posted his statement on social media. Now when an episode ends, the first words viewers see are “Elliot Page.”

Today, there are many out trans and nonbinary actors, directors and producers. Storylines involving trans people are more common, more respectful. Sometimes that aspect of identity is even incidental, rather than the crux of a morality tale. And yet Hollywood can still seem a frightening place for LGBTQ people to come out. “It’s an industry that says, ‘Don’t do that,’” says director Silas Howard, who got his break on Amazon’s show Transparent, which made efforts to hire transgender crew members. “I wouldn’t have been hired if they didn’t have a trans initiative,” Howard says. “I’m always aware of that.”

So what will it mean for Page’s career? While Page has appeared in many projects, he also faced challenges landing female leads because he didn’t fit Hollywood’s narrow mold. Since Page’s Instagram post, his team is seeing more activity than they have in years. Many of the offers coming in—to direct, to produce, to act—are trans-related, but there are also some “dude roles.”

Downtime in quarantine helped Page accept his gender identity. “I was finally able to embrace being transgender,” he says.

Page was attracted to the role of Vanya in The Umbrella Academy because—in the first season, released in 2019—Vanya is crushed by self-loathing, believing herself to be the only ordinary sibling in an extraordinary family. The character can barely summon the courage to move through the world. “I related to how much Vanya was closed off,” Page says. Now on set filming the third season, co-workers have seen a change in the actor. “It seems like there’s a tremendous weight off his shoulders, a feeling of comfort,” says showrunner Steve Blackman. “There’s a lightness, a lot more smiling.” For Page, returning to set has been validating, if awkward at times. Yes, people accidentally use the wrong pronouns—“It’s going to be an adjustment,” Page says—but co-workers also see and acknowledge him.

The debate over whether cisgender people, who have repeatedly collected awards for playing trans characters, should continue to do so has largely been settled. However, trans actors have rarely been considered for cisgender parts. Whatever challenges might lie ahead, Page seems exuberant about playing a new spectrum of roles. “I’m really excited to act, now that I’m fully who I am, in this body,” Page says. “No matter the challenges and difficult moments of this, nothing amounts to getting to feel how I feel now.”

This includes having short hair again. During our interview, Page keeps rearranging strands on his forehead. It took a long time for him to return to the barber’s chair and ask to cut it short, but he got there. And how did that haircut feel?

Page tears up again, then smiles. “I just could not have enjoyed it more,” he says.”

#suicide m #transphobia m #Elliot Page #transgender #representation #celebrities #actors #tv #movies #rep #trans #transmasculine #nonbinary #queer #long post

2K notes · View notes

makeste · 3 years

Text

BnHA 6th Popularity Poll Reaction Post - Risky Spoiler-Dodging Edition

hey guys, so seeing as the results from the 6th popularity poll were leaked today, I figured I would do a separate reaction + analysis post this year, rather than piling it in as an extra on top of the chapter reaction post tomorrow. I figure this makes more sense anyway, since they’re really two completely different things. also this way I can write as much as I want lol.

also, just fyi, I am still completely unspoiled for chapter 293. and probably the smart thing to do to keep it that way would be to log off tumblr and hold off posting this until tomorrow, but I apparently have no impulse control today so oh well. anyway, so I’m hoping you guys will keep this spoiler-free if you don’t mind! as always, I would prefer to just jump right in completely unaware tomorrow like Troy returning to the study room with the pizza boxes lol.

okay so this first part is just going to be my predictions. fyi I am writing this part on Wednesday night, and then I’ll add on the results part on Thursday or Friday (ETA: Thursday, apparently, since I am impatient.)

okay so first of all, just as a refresher, this poll was open to Japanese voters from Aug 3 to Sep 30. meaning chapters 279 through 285. meanwhile last year’s poll took place around the tail end of the MVA arc. so between then and now we had Heroes Rising, the Endeavor Agency arc, and the War arc up to the part where the 1-A kids took on Gigantomachia in Gunga, and started battling Tomura in Jakku. so technically only a couple of arcs, but a LOT of stuff going down in them. oh and season 4 of the anime as well

so! firstly, I predict that my truculent africanized honeybee son will hold on to his crown at #1, coming off a year in which he did some internship-boosted soul searching, borrowed OFA in movie canon, and finished out the voting period as the my-body-moved-on-its-own character development MVP. like CALL ME CRAZY lol, but I’m pretty sure his title is safe. and then after him will be Deku and Shouto as usual

Aizawa should hopefully also have a strong showing because the dude had a banner fucking year. reunited with his old dead friend, took on Tomura with his hopelessly inept hero pals, and then chopped his fucking leg off. he had better be in the top 10. his fucking leg died for this, idk what else he has to do

Endeavor also stands a decent chance of doing well given the internship arc and the final episode of season 4. which I’m sure will go down just swimmingly if that does happen lmao. especially if he somehow manages to rank higher than...

Dabi, which I don’t think he will btw, but you never know. anyways though, but I’m thinking Dabi’s going to have a stronger showing than in past years (in the last poll he only got 367 votes and was ranked 19th). mostly because of his fight in the Gunga mansion, and his cheekily censored name reveal to...

Hawks, who is also going to rank pretty high here, I think. might be he loses some points for killing off Twice, but his back was basically to the wall there. and he has always been very popular, and I think season 4 will also give him a boost, along with his heavy involvement in the first half of the War arc

Tomura was already in 6th place last year and I think he cracks the top 5 this year. he’s gotten exponentially more popular since the MVA arc, and got a boost in the last poll even though his flashback had only just barely happened, and he hadn’t finished Awakening yet and all that stuff. anyway, so he’s only gotten cooler and more tragic since then so I think he makes a big play here

Kirishima, Momo, Tokoyami, and Mina should also hopefully do well, since the poll opened right in the middle of all that Gigantomachia action, and Toko had just got done being an absolute badass and protecting his birb dad. I don’t think he’ll quite make it to the top ten, but he should

and last but not least, I’m hoping that Mirko will come out and take the polls by storm, although I have no clue how popular she is in Japan lol. she’s clearly Horikoshi’s favorite though. she SHOULD be everyone’s favorite, but I mean, we’ll see how it goes

anyway that’s it as far as predictions! and so now, through the magic of writing stuff at different times, we will fast-forward to the part where we actually find out the results!

OH MY GOD YES, STEAMPUNK KHLKSLLKL. HERE FOR IT. JOLLY GOOD SHOW. 5 STARS

Kacchan looks SO COCKY and SO HAPPY and SO ADORABLE, YES I SAID IT. he is adorable as FUCK. I don’t quite know what it is about this particular Kacchan that just screams “LOOK HOW FUCKING CUTE MY STUPID, LOUD SON IS WITH HIS BIZARRE WINDOWPANE-LOOKING CONVERTIBLE SUNGLASS GOGGLES and his POORLY TIED CRAVAT”, but I think it’s because he looks like if a Digimon character and a FMA character had a baby

anyway, so it looks like most of the people present here are more or less who we expected to see. except that I can’t tell for sure if that’s Dabi or Shindou, and if it’s Shindou I’m going to punch somebody in the face so you will have to excuse me

Iida wearing a TRENCHCOAT and a TOP HAT with ENGINE EXHAUST GOGGLE ACCENTS is my new favorite Iida of all time. take note how there is no possible way he can wear those goggles with them sitting on top of his hat like that. plus he’s already got glasses on. these are just purely for aesthetic and IF THAT AIN’T JUST THE STEAMPUNK WAY

Deku out here speaking softly and carrying a lead pipe. Kacchan you best look out. seems like he’s done watching you take first place year after year while he languishes in the number two spot. your only hope is that he trips while attacking you because his boots are unbuckled

Shouto’s standing over there with the rest of the non-first-and-second-place characters, but what are the odds his results are actually within spitting distance of Deku’s same as always. anyway he doesn’t mind, though. also his outfit is by far the most sensible one here, but if you look closely he’s got some sort of fire extinguisher/jet pack thing strapped to his back that’s got a control switch on his belt. Shouto are you jetpacking or putting out fires

Kirishima out here all “I’m not sure what steampunk is so I’m just going to take off my shirt and pose”

AIZAWA WITH THE EYEPATCH SKLKSDLKFJLSKJLDFKJSLDFFJLDKSJFL:KS. SIR. SIR. also, lowkey furious that Horikoshi refuses to show us the automail leg that he is clearly sporting here but which we just can’t see, SHOUTO MOVE GODDAMMIT

Endeavor has TWO fire extinguisher-slash-jetpacks. THE BETTER TO... WHATEVER. look at you here in the top ten again. you really live for that controversy

HAWKS OUT HERE WITH HIS STEAMPUNK BEATS BY DRE AND HIS WEARING A RING ON EVERY FINGER. nice to see you’ve still got your wings there, kiddo. then again Deku still has both of his arms too so who even knows what is going on

BUT SERIOUSLY THOUGH, IS THIS DABI OR SHINDOU. as if I don’t know the truth deep down in my heart. y’all I am gonna flip lmao. it’s not that I dislike Shindou, strictly speaking. but just... I can’t explain what it is, but if you put him and AFO next to each other and told me “you can only punch one”, I would be having a serious crisis. just, THIS FUCKING GUY, idek. STOP SMILING

Tomura looks like he just wandered onto the set here by mistake and has no idea where he is or what is going on. it’s because you’re wearing a bigass severed hand that’s blocking your entire view, Tomura. just take the hand off your face my sweet murder dumpling

anyway! so I managed to also find a link to the full poll results while somehow managing to avoid spoilers, and then I wanted to compare the results to last year’s poll, and so I made... this

hopefully you can all see this. if you’re on desktop you might be screwed, but on mobile you should be able to click and enlarge it. I mean, assuming you actually give a fuck about boring poll analysis spreadsheets lmao

anyway, so there were actually 13k fewer votes cast this year which is a bit of a surprise. is the series not still growing in popularity? do people apparently have better things to do during their quarantine lol

anyways but despite this, and despite getting 8k fewer votes overall, Kacchan still managed almost twice as many as his closest competitor. well fought, Deku. please put down that pipe

I somehow always underestimate the power of ship popularity to influence these things. but for example, it looks like Present Mic got that Vigilantes Trio bump. ride that wave for all it’s worth my man! hell, you got me on board

Iida fucking Tenya somehow got some sort of POWER BOOST out of NOWHERE which I can’t explain at all lmao, but I’m here for it. NOT BAD FOR AN OLD MAN

Sero managed to get the exact same number of votes in both 2019 and 2020. clearly the most loyal fans in the business

Mirko being all the way down at #20 is, of course, a travesty, and I hereby nominate her to be the one to punch Shindou in the face

ngl though, the lack of a single female character in the top ten hurts just a bit. it’s not overly surprising, but still. the worst part of it is that even if you kicked Shindou to the curb and moved everyone else up one slot, it would still be all dudes since Mic beat out Momo by a margin of a little more than a hundred votes. hard to stay mad at Mic for too long, though. ah well

Tomura actually lost a bunch of votes which is a genuine surprise to me. I know the villain standom isn’t as dominant in Japan as it is in Western fandom, but still. you can go ahead and punch Shindou too I guess

Tokoyami lowkey doubled his vote count over the past year while hiding down there at #18. he is slowly becoming more powerful. biding his time

anyway so I think that’s it! I mean not really, but I’m getting kind of tired lol. so just, you know, insert the usual gripes at Overhaul’s ranking here, although we can be happy about Magne making her way onto the list (r.i.p.), and Mineta and AFO taking a very satisfying slide down (all the way out, in AFO’s case; good riddance you bum). Hadou also got a huge boost which is awesome. Mustard’s persistent ownership of the #36 spot will forever remain a mystery to me, but oh well

anyways, this was fun. and I really do feel like everyone is looking away on purpose so that when Deku brains Kacchan with that pipe in about two seconds from now, there will be no witnesses, oh my fucking god

#bnha 293 #bnha popularity poll #bakugou katsuki #midoriya izuku #todoroki shouto #aizawa shouta #shigaraki tomura #bnha #boku no hero academia #bnha spoilers #mha spoilers #bnha manga spoilers #makeste reads bnha

156 notes · View notes

reading-writing-revolution · 4 years

Text

Heather Cox Richardson:

August 14, 2020 (Friday)

Today’s big story was the administration’s assault on the United States Postal Service. Yesterday, the president said outright that he opposed relief funding for the cash-strapped institution because he wanted to stop mail-in voting, even though he and his wife Melania have both applied for mail-in ballots. Slowing down or stopping the mail will create chaos around the election, and will likely mean ballots will not be counted. It will also funnel voters back to polling places, although the pandemic means there are far fewer of them than usual.

Once at polling places, many voters will cast their ballots on voting machines that are vulnerable to hacking. New machines, rolled out after 2016 and designed to keep cyberhackers at bay, proved “extremely unsafe, especially in close elections,” according to Alex Halderman, a computer scientist from the University of Michigan who, along with six colleagues, studied them. At least 18% of the country’s districts will vote on the new machines, including districts in Pennsylvania, which Trump needs to win but where Biden is up by double digits.

“There are strong security reasons to prefer hand-marked paper ballots,” Halderman told Joseph Marks of the Washington Post.

A bipartisan organization of state secretaries of state—the people in charge of elections—wrote to Trump’s new Postmaster General Louis DeJoy on August 7 to ask for a meeting to discuss his recent changes to the USPS and to explore how those changes would affect the election. In a delay that observers say is “unusual,” he has declined to answer. The USPS recently sent letters to 46 states and Washington, D.C. to say that it cannot guarantee that it will be able to deliver mail-in ballots on time. The letters were prepared before DeJoy took office, suggesting that he knew the USPS should be ramping up its capacity, not decreasing it.

News broke today that DeJoy was named to the finance team of the Republican National Committee in 2017 (along with Elliott Broidy, Michael Cohen, and Gordon Sondland, if anyone can remember back to the days of impeachment), suggesting his partisanship makes him a poor fit for what is supposed to be a nonpartisan office.

In June, USPS officials told union officials that management was getting rid of 671 sorting machines, about 10% of the machines in the country. The sorters were the kind that handled letters and postcards, not magazines and large envelopes. The argument for getting rid of them is that people write fewer letters these days, but of course we are all expecting a huge influx of mail-in ballots that those machines would handle. Many of the removed sorters were in states that are political battlegrounds: Ohio lost 24 sorters, Detroit lost 11, Florida lost 11, Wisconsin lost 9, Philadelphia lost 8 and Arizona lost 5.

Similarly, the USPS removed letter boxes today in what it said were routine reassignments. The outcry was great enough that it has announced it will not remove any more until after the election. The removal of the boxes may indeed be routine, but David Becker, executive director of the nonprofit, nonpartisan Center for Election Innovation & Research told Washington Post reporter Jacob Bogage, “Given the other things that are going on, it’s okay to ask questions…. The high-speed sorters that are getting deactivated, the loss of overtime, the delays in mail we’re seeing right now, all of this should cause some concern and warrants questions.”

Today, Inspector General for the USPS Tammy L. Whitcomb announced that, at the request of Democrats, she is opening an investigation into “all recent staffing and policy changes put in place” by DeJoy. She will also be looking into DeJoy’s compliance with ethics rules, related to his huge financial stake in private competitors to the USPS.

The other big story is that the Government Accountability Office, the main audit institution in the federal government, concluded today that the two top officials at the Department of Homeland Security are not legally in their positions.

The acting Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, Chad Wolf, and his top deputy, Ken Cuccinelli, were never confirmed for their positions, although those positions require Senate confirmation. Instead, they were moved into their jobs through the lines of succession in the department, but those lines were altered by the previous DHS secretary, Kevin McAleenen, who himself was placed into position improperly. According to the GAO, McAleenen did not have authority to move Wolf, who had Senate confirmation for a different position, into the directorship. Cuccinelli, who currently holds the title “Senior Official Performing the Duties of Deputy Secretary,” has never been confirmed for anything.

Democrats called for Wolf and Cuccinelli to step down, but DHS spokesman Nathaniel Madden said “We wholeheartedly disagree with the GAO’s baseless report and plan to issue a formal response to this shortly.”

Trump’s handling of DHS is problematic. DHS is a new agency, established after 9-11, and it is staffed with political appointees who report to the president. Trump has increasingly refused to go through normal nominations processes, aware that at least some of his appointees could not make it through even this Republican Senate. Moreover, leaving his appointees in limbo gives Trump more control over them. “I like ‘acting,’” he told reporters last year. “It gives you great, great flexibility.”

Trump has made little effort to fill positions at DHS with qualified people. Within DHS are the agencies that oversee immigration: U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS). None of them has a leader that has been confirmed by the Senate. Trump’s sway over DHS means the agency is currently operating, as DHS’s first secretary Tom Ridge said, like “the president’s personal militia.” It was Wolf, of course, who oversaw the recent deployment of federal officers to Portland, Oregon.

In legal news, in a case stemming from U.S. Attorney John Durham’s investigation of the FBI investigation of ties between the Trump campaign and Russia in 2016, a former FBI lawyer intends to plead guilty to falsifying a document. Kevin Clinesmith was the root of the most serious mishandling of the wiretapping of former Trump advisor Carter Page. When it was time for the FBI to apply for a renewal of the request to surveil Page, Clinesmith was asked to find out if Page had ever been an informant for the CIA. When asked, a CIA colleague appears to have identified Page’s role with the agency as something other than a “source,” but wrote an email about it that simply sent Clinesmith to documents to check. Clinesmith altered his CIA colleague's email with the words “not a ‘source.’” The FBI relied on his representation to write the application renewal to wiretap Page.

Clinesmith resigned over the issue last year. He maintains that he changed the wording to reflect what he understood to be true, and other evidence suggested he never tried to hide the original email from his colleagues. Still, he altered a document, and Page’s relationship with the CIA was not accurately represented to the judges who approved the wiretapping. The Justice Department’s inspector general, Michael Horowitz, called out this issue in his report on the FBI handling of the Russia investigation, although he concluded that the FBI opened the investigation properly and without political bias.

In another case stemming from 2016 that got a lot of traction when it was announced, a federal appeals court today ruled that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton does not have to give another deposition about her emails. Judicial Watch, a rightwing organization founded in 1994 that has frequently targeted the Clintons with lawsuits which are usually thrown out of court, wanted to depose Clinton on the subject. She argued they were harassing her. The court noted that the email issue had already been thoroughly investigated by Congress, the FBI, the State Department Inspector General, and another lawsuit and concluded she did not have to testify again. Last year, the State Department concluded that “there was no persuasive evidence of systemic, deliberate mishandling of classified information.”

Finally, in all the political craziness, the devastating storm that hit the middle of the country on Monday has gotten less attention than it should have. The storm was a “derecho,” and brought wind over 100 miles an hour. Iowa appears to have lost 43% of its corn and soybean crops; 15 tornadoes in Illinois left 800,000 people without power. In Iowa, four days later, 250,000 are still without power, and roads remained blocked.

11 notes · View notes

theliberaltony · 4 years

Link

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Graphics by Jasmine Mithani

President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden are well on their way to facing off in November, but this hasn’t stopped the new coronavirus from casting a pall of uncertainty over the campaign. Numerous primaries have been postponed and the Democrats have already delayed their convention. In fact, there’s a decent chance that neither party will be able to hold one in person, possibly necessitating the first virtual convention in U.S. history. There’s also a real question mark around the general election, as it may fall in the midst of a resurgence of the virus.

But if we’re going to entertain doomsday scenarios, let’s consider one that’s always lurking but may be disturbingly relevant in 2020: the death or incapacitation of a presidential nominee. How would the parties — and the public — respond to such a tragic event?

We know this is macabre, but Trump and Biden are both in their 70s (Trump turns 74 in June, and Biden is 77), making them the oldest major-party nominees in American history.

And on top of the reality that the elderly simply have a greater chance of dying, COVID-19 is particularly dangerous for those 65 and over. So if there were ever an election cycle to worry about this morbid hypothetical, it’s this one.

If something were to happen to the presumptive nominee before the convention, the parties have a plan — they’d proceed as normal and use the convention to pick the nominee. And if something happened after the convention but before the election, there’s a plan for that, too — national party committees would step in. After the election, though, things get murkier, as it’s uncertain how the result would work out in the Electoral College.

Let’s tackle that first scenario — something happens to either Biden or Trump before their respective conventions. In the case of the Democratric nomination, that would all of a sudden open up the race, according to Lara Brown, director of the Graduate School of Political Management at George Washington University. The delayed primaries would become far more relevant, and this could create a free-for-all with Sen. Bernie Sanders and the other candidates. “Let’s face it, none of the candidates have officially withdrawn,” said Brown. “They’ve all just suspended [their campaigns].”

But if tragedy didn’t strike until the convention, Biden delegates would have to choose someone else to support.1 Richard Pildes, a constitutional law professor at the New York University School of Law, stressed, however, that even under normal circumstances, the Democratic delegates are technically free “on the first ballot to vote their conscience.” As for the GOP convention rules, Pildes told me they specifically bind the delegates, and as Trump is the only candidate who will really have delegates, the party might need to issue an “interpretation” of the rules or even vote to change them to deal with this unforeseen situation.

Brown and Pildes said it wouldn’t necessarily prevent a drawn-out convention battle, but if Biden had picked a running mate, that might go a long way in limiting the intraparty fighting because Democrats would already have someone to rally around rather than being split among a host of alternatives. On the other hand, Vice President Pence would automatically ascend to the presidency should something happen to Trump, giving the Republicans a pretty straightforward pick if disaster struck before their August convention.

If something happened after the conventions but before the election, the national party committees would pick another nominee. Under Republican rules, the Republican National Committee could reconvene the national convention, although Pildes told me it’s hard to imagine that being feasible. So in both parties, national committee members would vote to elect a new nominee.2 Pence would once again be the obvious choice for Republicans, although the GOP would also have to pick a new vice presidential nominee (as would the Democrats if this situation arose for them). And while Democrats could try to back a former candidate or an outsider who didn’t run — say, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo — Brown said a crisis like this would likely push the Democratic National Committee to put the vice presidential nominee at the top of the ticket. “I assume that the Democrats would attempt to follow that same pattern [as the GOP],” she said.

Neither party has ever had to replace someone at the top of the ticket, but Democrats do have some experience with replacing someone in the No. 2 spot. In 1972, the national convention nominated Missouri Sen. Thomas Eagleton to be George McGovern’s running mate, but after reports surfaced that Eagleton had received electroconvulsive therapy for depression, he withdrew, and the DNC chose Sargent Shriver to fill the vacancy. Brown cautioned me not to read too much into how this worked, though, because she argued that the process would work differently if someone died. “It’s different with a death because a death is unexpected,” said Brown. “Whereas by the time you get to Eagleton withdrawing at McGovern’s request, the whole party is kind of on board with that already.”

And what if something happens very close to Election Day? It’d probably be really hard to pick a replacement in time to update ballots, as most deadlines to certify state ballots would have passed by early October — not to mention other logistical hurdles that could pose problems, such as mailing ballots for overseas military service members in time, or making last-minute adjustments to absentee ballots. It’s entirely possible that if the candidate died only a few days before Nov. 3, voters might not know who the party’s nominee was when they go to the polls.

Again, neither party has experienced this at the top of the ticket, but Republicans did have this happen to a vice presidential candidate in 1912, when sitting Vice President James Sherman died on Oct. 30, just days before the election. This left insufficient time for the RNC to meet and nominate a replacement to join President William Howard Taft on the GOP ticket, but it was also largely a moot point as Taft lost to Woodrow Wilson. The RNC still chose a replacement, Nicholas Murray Butler, president of Columbia University, who received all eight of Sherman’s electoral votes, but it’s unclear whether a new presidential pick would receive the electoral votes intended for the original nominee today.

That’s because, unlike in 1912, more than half the states have laws that attempt to bind electors to a state’s vote. In fact, there’s an ongoing case in front of the Supreme Court about whether members of the Electoral College are free to vote for whomever they want or whether state laws can require them to vote a certain way. And depending on how the court rules, that could affect the ability of individual states to adjust for the unexpected death of a presidential nominee. For instance, Michigan’s law requires an elector to vote for the ticket named on the ballot whereas Florida’s rules say that an elector is to “vote for the candidates of the party that he or she was nominated to represent.”

Finally, if the nominee was incapacitated after Election Day, a lot might depend on whether he is considered the “president-elect.” If he is, it’s actually pretty straightforward — the 20th Amendment says the vice president-elect shall become president. But if it all happened before the Electoral College votes on Dec. 14 or even before Congress counts the electoral votes on Jan. 6, 2021, it’s not clear what would happen next, as he might not be considered the president-elect. There is one instance of this happening — in 1872, Horace Greeley died on Nov. 29, just before the Electoral College’s Dec. 4 gathering and most of his 66 electoral votes were split among four alternate candidates (including Greeley’s vice presidential nominee, Benjamin Gratz Brown), but this example is largely academic, too, as Greeley had already lost to Republican President Ulysses S. Grant.

It’s hard to know what exactly might unfold, but none of these timelines would leave much time for the near-certain legal wrangling over the fallout from a candidate’s death, a problem that we haven’t adjusted for even after the messy recount in the 2000 presidential election. Pildes put it bluntly: “We’ve been lucky. We have actually had some presidents who have died shortly after taking office but not somebody who died either between the convention and the election, or after being elected and becoming the president-elect.” And if that were to happen this year, it would likely create intraparty division, uncertainty among voters or a tidal wave of litigation. Let’s hope that the country’s luck doesn’t run out in 2020.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #Geoffrey Skelley

10 notes · View notes

go-redgirl · 4 years

Photo

ORLANDO, Florida—Vice President Mike Pence rallied at a Latinos for Trump event here on Saturday as President Donald Trump now leads his Democrat opponent former Vice President Joe Biden in the Sunshine State.

“It’s great to be back in the Sunshine State with some great Americans who are going to drive a victory here in Florida and all across America,” Pence said as he took the stage here at Central Christian University. “Thank you, Latinos for Trump. I’m here for one reason, and one reason only: because Florida, and America, need four more years of Donald Trump in the White House. The road to victory runs right through Florida.”

Pence’s campaign swing through central Florida during which Breitbart News is traveling with him and is scheduled to interview him—he is also leading a Make America Great Again rally in the Villages later in the day—comes as the vice president has emerged as the Trump-Pence ticket’s top campaigner while the president continues his recovery from the coronavirus in the White House.

Other Trump campaign leaders and first family surrogates have also stepped up campaign activities as part of what the team calls “Operation MAGA.”

Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son, for instance is hitting the trail aggressively this coming week with more than two dozen scheduled events crisscrossing the nation.

Trump is scheduled to later on Saturday hold his first public event, at the White House, since contracting the virus. Trump was diagnosed a little over a week ago—last Thursday—and then later was transferred last weekend to Walter Reed hospital to begin his recovery.

After beginning his treatment there with a dose of Regeneron’s antibody cocktail medication, and treatment with remdesivir and the steroid dexamethosone, Trump returned to the White House earlier this week to continue his recovery.

He began working again mid-week, visiting the Oval Office, and has also now started conducting interviews again as Friday he appeared on Rush Limbaugh’s and Mark Levin’s respective nationally broadcast radio programs as well as giving his first on-camera interview to Fox News’s Dr. Marc Siegel, which aired Friday evening on Tucker Carlson Tonight.

Trump will resume campaigning on Monday with a rally nearby here, in Sanford, Florida, his first time back on the trail since the infection.

But in the meantime, Pence—who earlier this week debated Democrat vice presidential contender Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) in Salt Lake City, Utah—is the top dog out there for the Trump campaign. This weekend Florida swing comes after a Thursday post-debate campaign trip to Arizona and Nevada, western states the president split with Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton in 2016. Trump won the former, and Clinton won the latter.

“I don’t know if you all got to see it, but I was just in Utah the other night—we had a little debate with Kamala Harris,” Pence told the cheering crowd here in Orlando. “Some people think we did alright. But I want to clear: From where I was sitting, that debate was not just a debate between two candidates for vice president. It was a debate between two visions for America.

Joe Biden and Kamala Harris want higher taxes, open borders, socialized medicine; they want to abolish fossil fuels, and use taxpayer funding to pay for abortion. They want to defund the police. President Donald Trump’s vision is a little bit different. President Trump says rebuild our military. We cut taxes; we rolled back regulations, unleashed American energy, secured our border, supported law enforcement, life and liberty and the Constitution of the United States. When you compare the Biden-Harris agenda with our agenda, the choice is clear.

If you cherish faith and freedom and law and order and life, then we need four more years of President Donald Trump in the White House.”Pence’s team is riding high into the Sunshine State, too, as the latest public polling here shows Trump leading Biden in the final weeks by three points. That poll, from Fox35, correctly predicted the 2008 and 2016 elections.

It show Trump performing strongly among Hispanic and black voters, but like other surveys it shows the president’s ticket underperforming 2016 numbers among seniors—a demographic that Biden is making a push for. Pence is working to hit both key demographics—Hispanics and seniors—with his pair of campaign events here on Saturday.

Helping energize Hispanic voters for the president are multiple factors, including a key endorsement in recent weeks from Puerto Rico’s Gov. Wanda Vazquez Garced—an endorsement Pence hyped here—and strong support in the Cuban community in the state.

Pence also made a key point to hype Trump’s word against Nicolas Maduro’s regime in Venezuela, and standing up the communists in Cuba.“Under President Donald Trump, we have stood for freedom across this hemisphere for all freedom-loving people,” Pence told the Latinos for Trump rally-goers here. “Under President Trump’s leadership, the United States was the first nation on earth to recognize President Juan Guaido as the only legitimate president of Venezuela. Under this president, America has been clear: Maduro must go and America will stand with the people of Venezuela.

Under Joe Biden as vice president, he served at a time when America was appeasing the communist regime in Havana. President Donald Trump kept the promise that he made to Cuban Americans when he reversed the failed policies of the last administration toward Cuba. In this White House, it will always be Que Viva Cuba Libre.

President @realDonaldTrump kept his promise to Cuban Americans when he reversed the failed policies of the last administration. In this @WhiteHouse, it will always be que viva Cuba libre!3:22 PM · Oct 10, 2020

He also hyped economic successes the Trump administration has delivered for Hispanics.

“Nearly half of the jobs that were created in our first three years went to Hispanic Americans,” Pence said. “That’s what we call promises made and promises kept. So I’m excited to talk to you about that and see the enthusiasm here today on this cool and breezy day in Florida. President Trump is keeping his promises. It’s why Puerto Rico Gov. Wanda Vazquez Garced just endorsed President Donald Trump for re-election as President of the United States. This week, the governor of Puerto Rico asked people in that territory to vote for who’s been there for Puerto Rico in its most difficult moments. She said very plainly it is Donald Trump.

She thanked the president for rebuilding Puerto Rico not just with words but with actions. She said thanks to the president’s leadership, pharmaceutical manufacturing is coming back to the island. China is fired and Puerto Rico is hired.”

These events along the I-4 corridor, which stretches from Daytona through Orlando down to Tampa, are key to the Trump team wooing seniors back from clutches of Biden and the Democrats. A key focus from Pence’s messaging on the trail is zoning in on just how radical the left truly is, and what that would mean for the general public if Biden and Harris were to win and be able to implement their agenda.

That’s something Pence focused on in Wednesday’s debate with Harris, putting her on the hot seat on court-packing, fracking, China, and her questionable-at-best record as a prosecutor in San Francisco and in California.

The vice president’s trip here also comes less than two days before Judge Amy Coney Barrett is set to begin her confirmation hearings before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Monday morning, after Trump nominated her a couple weeks ago to be the next Associate Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court. Democrats and the establishment media have unleashed a barrage of vicious attacks against Barrett, targeting her faith and even her adopted children, in what is expected to be a fierce showdown in the Senate and in the public eye just before the election.

“Last month as a nation we paused to honor the life and service of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg,” Pence told the cheering crowd here. “When the memorials were over, President Trump fulfilled his duty under the Constitution of the United States and he nominated a principled, brilliant, conservative woman who believes in the Constitution to the Supreme Court. He nominated Judge Amy Coney Barrett.

”As “Fill That Seat” chants broke out among the crowd, Pence turned and promised them that Trump and the GOP-controlled Senate will get it done. “Let me make you a promise: After the Senate gets done with the advisement and consent, we’re going to fill that seat,” Pence told the crowd which erupted in applause.“I got to tell you, I’m a big fan of Judge Amy Coney Barrett—not just because she’s from Indiana, but she’s a truly remarkable person,” Pence continued.

“She deserves a dignified hearing, a dignified and respectful hearing in the United States Senate. But, men and women, we have reason to be concerned. You all remember when she was appointed to the court of appeals just two years ago, the Democrat chairman of the Judiciary Committee criticized her Catholic faith. Sen. Dianne Feinstein said ‘the dogma lives loudly within you.’ Hollywood elites have already begun to criticize Judge Barrett and her family for their faith. Well, I got news for the Democrats and their friends in Hollywood: That dogma lives loudly in me.

That dogma lives loudly in you. That’s the right to live and to worship according to the dictates of our faith lives loudly in the Constitution of the United States.

”The president has the lead in Florida—and its 29 electoral votes are crucial to his path to re-election. Assuming the president can keep Georgia, Texas, and Arizona red—those are three traditionally red states that Biden and Democrats hope to flip—and hold onto Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, and here in Florida, along with Maine’s Second District, he would be one state away from locking down a second term in the White House.Public polling out of Georgia and Texas show those two states firmly back in the president’s column, after months of concern on both, and Arizona seems to be trending back that way too with a recent Trafalgar Group poll this week showing Trump back in the lead there.

The Trump campaign feels so confident about Iowa and Ohio, too, that they pulled down television ad buys in both states to focus resources more effectively elsewhere. North Carolina’s public polling has been shifting back Trump’s way, too, all while the Democrats’ U.S. Senate candidate there Cal Cunningham is rocked by a serious sexting scandal that has found him under investigation by the U.S. Army Reserves for the inappropriate relationship with an enlisted serviceman’s wife.

Public polling out of Maine’s Second District, from the Bangor Daily News, shows the president with a healthy 8 percent lead over Biden. If Trump holds all those plus all the other traditional red states together, he would be at 260 electoral votes and winning just any one of the upper rust belt states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Minnesota—would put him over the top of the required 270 electoral votes necessary to win re-election.

1 note · View note

news-ase · 4 years

Text

1 note · View note

news-monda · 4 years

Text

1 note · View note

schraubd · 4 years

Text

What Went Wrong in 2016?

Right up until election day, most people thought Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 election. She didn't, and many people have many different theories about what went wrong. Which one you ascribe to probably does a fair bit of work in explaining who you back in 2020 and why. And the fact that we don't really know which answer is the right one, and feel an urge to cover all our bases "just to be sure", probably contributes to the Johnny Unbeatable problem -- the explanations aren't all mutually compatible, and so "learning their lessons" will pull us in contradictory directions. Theory #1: It was anti-Clinton mania: Claim: Hillary Clinton is uniquely reviled for idiosyncratic and effectively non-ideological reasons. Lesson: don't nominate Hillary Clinton. Simple. Theory #2: It was misogyny: It's not just Hillary Clinton. Any female candidate is going to whip up a toxic brew of wounded masculinity and machismo. People nervous about nominating another woman often believe this. Theory #3: Clinton was too elitist: Generally a favorite of not-Democrats, though endorsed by some "moderates" too. The idea here is that Hillary Clinton represents a far-left agenda and the Democrats need to return to the good old days when they were the party of ... Bill Clinton? JFK? FDR? Unclear. What is clear is that Democrats need to show more respect for rural heartland voters, respect people who oppose gay rights, respect people who want to deport immigrant children, and above all respect people who want to ban abortion. Oh, and under no circumstances should a Democrat call anyone "deplorable" -- except maybe Ilhan Omar. These folks believe Joe Biden would have won in a cakewalk Theory #4: Clinton was too centrist: Hillary Clinton didn't offer a true progressive alternative to conservatism, to capitalism, to corporatism, to technocracy, or to neoliberalism. Hence she didn't inspire voters thirsting for an alternative. Donald Trump at least purported to speak to voters who believed the system had failed him, and a Democrat who basically was seen as a "the status quo is okay" figure would not do well. A bold and uncompromising progressive vision that unabashedly targets the systemic forces immiserating us all, by contrast, can speak to the millions of Americans who feel dejected, disempowered, and ready for a change. Favored diagnosis of the "Bernie would have won!" crowd. Theory #5: Clinton abandoned the Midwest: "She didn't even visit Wisconsin!" The blue wall cracked, Democrats lost Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. So to win -- rebuild that blue wall, by nominating a candidate most likely to be extremely popular among rust belt swing voters in the Midwest. This could point you anywhere from Joe Biden to Tim Ryan to Amy Klobuchar to "recruit Sherrod Brown". Theory #6: Clinton didn't excite the base: Democrats took for granted the constituencies that are most responsible for powering them to victory and so left a ton of votes on the table. Rather than chase the elusive (and probably white) swing voter, the strategy here is to goose turnout among voters (especially women) of color. It's not the same as Theory #4 because -- despite what Jacobin Mag would have you believe -- it is not necessarily the case that people of color are inspired by fire-eating leftism of the Jacobin Mag bent. Often believed by those who think Democrats must nominate a woman and/or person of color; and often also paired with a belief that Democrats should abandon the rust belt and focus more on winning emergent sun belt swing states like Arizona, North Carolina, or (dare to dream) Georgia and Texas. Theory #7: PC backlash: The Democratic Party allowed themselves to be taken over by a radical identity politics fringe who alienated regular Americans with all this talk of "intersectionality" and "microaggressions" and "trigger warnings". Trump's victory was a result of a PC backlash prompted by White men who just was sick and tired of being called racist all the time, and lashed out by ... endorsing a really racist candidate. The interesting thing about this diagnosis is that its political description basically boils down to "White Americans are hella racist" while its political prescription is usually "don't ever say White Americans are racist." Facts sure care about those feelings. Theory #8: Voter suppression: Lower turnout among the base wasn't (just) because of less enthusiasm for Clinton. It was also a function of a sustained conservative campaign to obstruct poor and minority communities from voting. Proponents of this view aren't necessarily tied to a particular candidate as they are to urging Democrats to take voter access seriously as a top priority -- both in terms of legislating and in terms of activism. Unfortunately, the Senate won't pass any legislation, the courts are basically endorsers of the voter suppression project, and it's not like Republicans are going to be less invested in voter suppression the next time around, so this can rapidly turn fatalistic. Theory #9: Conspiracy theories: Russian interference, social media, fake news. Voters were buffeted by a frenzy of misleading or outright false information. Not only were some taken in by outlandish nonsense (QAnon, Pizzagate, Soros conspiracies), even those who weren't directly affected often suffered a general decline in trust for political institutions and the reliability of authority -- something that ended up redounding to Trump's benefit. And the Republicans exploited media timidity and its reflexive instinct to tell "both sides" to put naked falsehoods on par with actual truth. To a large extent, people in this camp think the media has to accept in a much more decisive manner its obligation call lies lies -- even if it makes "certain" elected officials mad. Theory #10: The Democratic Party is corrupt/incompetent/in disarray: Democrats don't really want to win, or they don't want to win if it means displeasing their true corporate masters. The party is beholden to an out-of-touch consultant class and big money donors locking them into unpopular positions that predictably lose elections. Only by seizing control of the party apparatus and smashing the old guard can Democrats actually run races that will actually inspire people. The more militant version of Theory #4. Theory #11: Nothing went wrong -- it was a fluke: During the entire 2016 cycle, the polls oscillated between a high of "Hillary Clinton landslide" and a low of "statistical dead heat". The argument here is that all that happened in 2016 is that election day happened to have the tremendous bad luck of occurring at one of the nadirs, leading to what was effectively a statistical dead heat and a coin-flip Donald Trump win. The lesson here is that there is n: o lesson: if you have a campaign strategy that gives you a win 75% of the time, that's a pretty good strategy even though (as Nate Silver reminds us) statistically you should lose a quarter of the time. All the efforts to "explain" the outcome basically a function of statistical illiteracy. To the extent Democrats should be on alert for anything, it's in letting the "we have to change something" impulse to tinker lead to making things worse. via The Debate Link https://ift.tt/2Fv6yC9

#Democrats #Election 2016 #Election 2020 #Hillary Clinton

5 notes · View notes