#so my fear is that different sellers are getting it from different manufacturers

[nashishishi]

going on a wild adventure trying to find more images of real people wearing this hoodie

#oftentimes when i see listings of this hoodie online #the sleeves are shown as just one sleeve with a pattern and not a long sleeve under a short sleeve like the pic #but the only images i've been able to find of people wearing this hoodie have sleeves like the pic #so my fear is that different sellers are getting it from different manufacturers #and if i buy it without knowing how it looks irl i'm gonna end up with the lame ass patterned sleeve instead of the super gender sleeves #if u own this hoodie or know anyone who owns this hoodie pls tell me where they got it from #either version of the hoodie btw. the lame ones or the cool ones #n44_misc

[valentinebullock72]

Where Can I Buy Branded Replica Clothing

According to the survey, 90% of the world’s replica products are from China. One can imagine how developed China’s high replica products trade is. When you're goning to take a position replica clothing business, the following threat you must take into consider. Are you're looking for the most effective costume that offers you a novel movie star look? At this web site then you might be able to find the costume at their catalog for designer clothes available on-line at wholesale and retail costs. However, it is extremely difficult to find a foundry for model cosmetics and do a good job in high quality control. My colleague Alice bought a replica of Airpods in Taobao for less than fifty nine RMB. But it appears precisely the identical as the unique product, and there's no difference in any respect from the skin. Some of the most effective are Handbagstore888, MKshop555 and Yoyoshopping plaza. One way to filter them would be to type within the name of the model you want plus the sort of bag you would like and seek for it. wikipedia clothes Next, filter based on essentially the most bought or the most effective rated. That will filter out the least sold or the bad high quality merchandise. Do learn a number of reviews of the merchandise to get an idea of the seller as well because the product, before you choose to purchase it. You may even be succesful of know where consumers are shopping for their products. Finally, you should have a good idea on what product you must inventory your shelf with. After understanding where to wholesale faux clothing, next, I will share some useful ideas of how to wholesale replica clothes. They have one of the best shirts starting from youngsters' shirts, men shirts, Men polo shirts, ladies Blouses & shirts. If not then let me tell you why it's so well-known in the UK. Hi, I’m Ayla Anderson, and welcome to my website Aylatrendguide.com. If you may be on the lookout for a user-friendly website, Replica Wholesaler is for you. The platform is simple to make use of, and you are capable of do your search by typing in your search engine as directing you to the categories. Here you can see the replicas of brand clothing you need at wonderful prices and bags, belts, footwear, and so forth. This platform provides replica manufacturers at wholesale prices from $6 in numerous feminine outfits. Shop the very best quality reps streetwear style together with sneaker, hoodie, tee, belt, trend accessories & bags. If you're in the midst of buying replica at low-cost value, you might have come to the best place. Ever since 2010, we are the only replica store that produce hype brand such as Fear Of God, Off-White, Palace, ASSC, Palm Angels, Stone Island. Aliexpress’ selection signifies that you get a variety of branded replicas that you could select from. In reality, for the worth you pay for a real brand, you may get 7 to eight replicas on the same cost, from different brands. Blueberry12 is called a pop-culture fanatic go-to store. They provide a variety of clothes that has prints, logos, and aesthetics of pop-culture affect. They have a steady following of patrons from wholesale to retail. Not solely do they have NASA shirts and Friends caps however they also offer tees, attire, and pattern shorts which have all the enjoyable twist on our favorite TV shows, films, and bands. When the public discovers that you simply promote replica brand clothing or accessories without prior authorization, the popularity of your corporation will be affected. Their enterprise cover over 200 countries and 98% merchandise could be obtained by worldwide customers inside forty eight hours. replica designer clothes If you might be after quality then you've arrived at one of the best website, where you can get the most effective provides at inexpensive prices. Whether you’re on the lookout for Louis Vuitton swimwear, Adidas sweatpants, or Fendi sweatshirts, you can find all of them at this one stop store. The transport technique of replica merchandise is similar as normal, however you have to confirm how the customs of your country/region determines whether or not the products are replica products. Knowing the rules beforehand may help you choose a product. Due to the huge demand for copies, a giant number of websites promoting copies have spawned.

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[mendozawolf77]

Replica Louis Vuitton Purses Store, Louis Vuitton Replica Baggage Sale

However, at the identical time, one cannot deny the truth that these durable and top-quality products are costly. This persuades many patrons on a budget to look for Louis Vuitton Replica or duplicates of those merchandise. wikipedia wallets An authentic LV bag or purse costs a fortune and somebody like me with restricted finances shall by no means think of buying one. The fake baggage are becoming extraordinarily popular because of numerous buyers like me who cannot afford to go for the original ones. For achieving this, our highly skilled staff follows a meticulous course of. First, we get genuine LV baggage, and strip them all the way down to know all about how they're made, and the supplies used. Then our exceptionally gifted craftsmen recreate the bags. To guarantee authenticity, we use the same leather, hardware, and material. There’s no other place to get low-cost LV replica baggage & purses than at Bag Heaven. The HEC retailer is a well-liked DHgate seller that offers in luggage of all kinds. In their assortment, they have wallets, shoulder bags, tote luggage, trend purses, backpacks, clutches, night luggage and more. They make PU leather-based bags that are pretty awesome. Overall, this is a good retailer to purchase some good replica baggage. DHgate has an excellent assortment of designer bag replicas as a result of lots of the producers who produce louis vuitton baggage, gucci bags and different branded luggage can be found within the marketplace. Our replica products are all counter quality that means they're true mirror picture replicas. Each merchandise is produced from 100% genuine leather-based matching quality of original manufacturing facility production with many supplies imported from Europe. Each item comes with a mud bag, authentication cards, box, purchasing bag, and pamphlets. Original retailer receipts are solely included upon request. Check out our wide range of Louis Vuitton replica purses & purses. You’re sure to be amazed by how low cost they are. At High Purses, we stay updated with the latest designs and pay lots of consideration to element to make sure our products look completely genuine. Our on-line replica store collection is in depth, and all our merchandise are prime quality and long lasting. https://phoenet.tw/wallet-purse-replica.html We also present LV’s trademark speedy luggage at wholesale costs. They promote trend baggage, beauty bags, wallets, outdoor bags, briefcases and more. On the opposite hand, nonetheless, I would by no means buy an genuine GEORGES or NEVERFULL as a result of properly-made replicas. They embody all of the features of the unique make. As a plus level, it's tough to tell the distinction between the unique and a well-made replica. If the construct material is the monogrammed brown canvas in the original, a good-high quality replica is such that it also offers you a canvas really feel. On the opposite hand, a foul-high quality one will give a plastic feel. They look a lot much like the original ones such that even the experts are unable to point the principle difference on the first look. I received to know about the replica LV baggage from certainly one of my associates who spoke fairly appreciably of them. Initially, I was suspicious to spend money on a a lot inexpensive replica LV bag, as I feared to finish up with low quality. However, once I saw a Louis Vuitton bag replica online while shopping online, which was very similar to the original in style and design. Upon the first look at design, options, evaluations, and value, I brought the GEORGES bag. Finally, I had to admit that it was among the many most satisfactory digital purchases so far.

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[stacktanner8]

The Means To Spot A Faux Louis Vuitton Bag

Since my initial LV buy, I’ve really ordered one other bag and I can inform you I’m simply as satisfied as earlier than. These guys have restored my faith in the replica enterprise and I can not suggest them enough. If you've any questions please feel free to depart them in the feedback below! I was somewhat worried before receiving my bag that it might arrive, well, wonky. You know the look, whenever you see photos of something online and it looks so beautiful with a good condition and then you get it in particular person and it’s simply type of… off somehow? When you combine this with the reality that we ship our merchandise quicker, you have really discovered your go-to supplier for LV replicas. At the identical time, we have also pointed out in the true vs fake LV wallet image above how the faux wallet’s letter “R” isn't centred in the midst of the circle. With this being mentioned for the inside print of the coin purse, let’s transfer on to the following step of the information on how to spot fake LV Pochette baggage. Louis Vuitton’s designs are elegant and are all the time considered as iconic trend items. They are additionally well-known for their eager attention for detail, that means they won’t ever settle for second finest. The very first thing you need to look for is a bag with both the "Louis Vuitton" icons on the bag . This is typically an efficient way to tell that you'll be getting a fantastic duplicate bag. Hey Shannon when I ordered from them I seen the EMS website sucked at updating. The bag nonetheless confirmed in China online when it arrived at my house. It will even have the same shape on the edges. It is extraordinarily sensible to peep contained in the bag and at the bag’s backside. This is the place you'll be able to easily experience the result of lazy faux bag sellers. Good high quality won't ever have a lazy outcome. Lazy distributors often think that consumers won't see minimize corners on regions which are regarded as much less essential like the interior. However, I did have to attend almost a week to obtain the bag, which in all probability doesn’t appear that long, however when you’re used to 2-3 day deliveries, this can really feel like forever. Perhaps it is a very nitpicky con, however it’s simply something I want was barely completely different. Unless the bag could be very classic, this code should always be present and make sense. If the numbers indicate that the bag was made in say, 2050, you’ll know that you have got a pretend in your hands. This product code authenticator is an effective way to shortly figure out the date and nation your bag was made in. While Louis Vuitton luggage don’t have proper a serial quantity, the code you will find is the date code. wikipedia handbags That was much faster than I anticipated considering the distance it traveled and virus issues. You might be onerous pressed to search out better high quality at higher price and a company that's extremely trustworthy. I would not hesitate for a second to make another buy. Louis Vuitton Replica has a client score of 4.9 stars from 73 evaluations indicating that most prospects are generally happy with their purchases. Consumers satisfied with Louis Vuitton Replica most incessantly mention customer support, dust bag and nice quality. Louis Vuitton Replica ranks twenty fifth among Handbags sites. One place you will get the replica handbags is in Louis Vuitton. Replica bagmakers before typically misspell the manufacturers on objective for fear of copyright infringement. Nowadays, due to the recent developments in know-how and manufacturing, the replica bags of right now have completely changed. On the other hand, a bad-quality one will give a plastic feel. Another good point is the high-quality sew that a Louis Vuitton handmade replica encompasses. As a outcome, it turns into hard to find a noticeable flaw. However, a good-quality copy could have a aspect stitch that's consistent with that of the unique. Most women's deepest want is to own a designer purse. However, you'll agree that their worth is ridiculously excessive. For that cause, the recognition of replica Louis Vuitton bags has grown in latest times. The luxury model produces its purses in workshops positioned in France, Spain, and the United States, and does not outsource manufacturing to cheaper areas like India and China. Unfortunately, with the rise of the brand’s popularity also come the counterfeiters. Fake Louis Vuitton luggage have dominated the e-commerce trade, leading to numerous eBay sellers who provide knockoffs at ridiculously low costs. I’ve been coming to Goldex for a number of years now and it’s a great service. Gives me enough time to pay again for my objects, as nicely as a refinance option for once I can’t pay on time at no further costs. They have outstanding customer support and never fail to satisfy. If the bag is made in France ensure it has a France date code. Also have a look at the standard of the warmth stamp. best replica louis vuitton bags Make certain the heat stamp is evenly stamped across Neatly.

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[qvistwheeler9]

New Rep Service After Initial Supply And Greatest Placed To Take

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However, we went a step additional and as an Airsoft store, we engaged in the promotion of a number of less-known airsoft brands, whose popularity remains to be rising. Moreover, the Custom Division, the branch of our Airsoft store that produces customized made replica, will provide you with unusual, unique fashions constructed by our employees. Thanks to careful preparation, basing on the best quality components and attention-grabbing design, customized Airsoft replicas shortly disappear from the shelves of our Airsoft store. As the best Airsoft retail retailer in Europe, we all know how essential it is to support the community.

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[bruhnfoster8]

Really Helpful Replica Luggage Sellers Record

Amazing purses are unique statements of originality and style, they're best choice to boost up your life-style. From the retro styling to the artistic look, LOUIS VUITTON imitation take luxurious bag to a model new fashion stage. Whether your LV bag of alternative is the traditional Speedy, the practical Neverfull, or the daring graffiti-print monogram. Our website is a pacesetter in offering the brand name bags crafted with authentic design and unparalleled quality, which has obtained countless customers from all walks of life these years. phoenet.tw louis vuitton replica I also knew that I solely have so much money to spend. I’m a younger professional, and I guess, in comparability with other people, I’m making good money. I had no problems and received all 7 baggage good and neat and fairly quickly. I am considering ordering from DD and I’m wondering if any of the bags you received from them have an odor. Sometimes objects coming from China smell like chemical compounds. Because the luggage are a bit expensive and so they don’t have credit card for cost. One place you could get the replica purses is in Louis Vuitton. Replica bagmakers before typically misspell the manufacturers on purpose for fear of copyright infringement. Nowadays, because of the current advancements in know-how and manufacturing, the replica baggage of at present have completely modified. This article was co-authored by wikiHow Staff. Our educated staff of editors and researchers validate articles for accuracy and comprehensiveness. WikiHow's Content Management Team rigorously displays the work from our editorial staff to guarantee that every article is backed by trusted analysis and meets our high quality standards. This article has been seen 2,749,a hundred and forty instances. Assuming the purse was produced after 2007, anyway. The date code format is Country Code - Week, Year, Week, Year . It will even have the identical form on the edges. It is extremely wise to peep inside the bag and at the bag’s bottom. wikipedia handbags This is where you can simply expertise the finish result of lazy pretend bag sellers. Good quality won't ever have a lazy consequence. Lazy distributors normally assume that consumers is not going to see reduce corners on regions that are thought to be less important like the interior. There are many great issues about Louis Vuitton monogram baggage that maintain us preoccupied. To the hawk-eyed, one lesser-known detail is the pink trim that runs together with the Vachetta leather. According to FOX 5 DC, the counterfeit cache included 2,601 coin purses, 459 purses, and three backpacks adorned with Gucci, Louis Vuitton, Chanel, Dior, Prada, and Hermes designer labels. Unfortunately, my bag was taken at Customs. Thanks for making my buy wonderfully easy, fast and with perfect results. The pre-shipment footage had been terrific & so many with different views. If you might have a bag that retails for $1,000 and is being bought to you at $100, there may be a lot reason to be wary. Research the original retail price online earlier than considering a purchase. You can simply inform a faux Louis Vuitton bag from an original one from the shade of the trim. The authentic ones will run closer to burgundy while counterfeits will usually be a brighter shade of red. It is also essential to note the inserting and consistency of the monogram sample. But what really are in these replica finds that keep others coming again for extra. [newline]Usual purpose for some is the availability of these items in sure areas. Louis Vuitton, Hermes, Chanel, Gucci, Dior, YSL and different renowned trend houses as an example have certain collector objects which may be designed to cater solely to a chosen few of its clientele. Bought a couple of purses from the team at Goldexico. Terrific experience - items had been in excellent situation and price was particularly reasonable. In the image containing the faux vs real Louis Vuitton Millionaire sunglasses above, we now have observed how the identical font-weight flaw applies to the proper wing as properly. With this being stated for step one of the guide on the means to spot pretend Louis Vuitton sun shades, let’s move on to the subsequent means. Starting with the product ID Code on the leftmost aspect of the temple, you presumably can notice how the letters and the numbers on the pretend pair are too thick and too huge. As for step one of the guide on the way to spot fake Louis Vuitton Millionaire sun shades, we're going to look at the temples for their inscriptions.

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[stevensonthestrup88]

Bag Heaven

Lazy vendors usually assume that buyers is not going to see minimize corners on areas which are thought to be much less necessary like the inside. If the interior of the original bag is elegant and powerful cotton lining, its fake different ought to have the identical if it is of good quality. An authentic LV bag or purse costs a fortune and somebody like me with limited budget shall by no means think of buying one. The fake luggage have gotten extremely in style because of numerous buyers like me who can not afford to go for the original ones. They look a lot much like the original ones such that even the specialists are unable to level the primary difference at the first glance. I received to know concerning the replica LV bags from one of my associates who spoke quite appreciably of them. Initially, I was suspicious to invest in a much inexpensive replica LV bag, as I feared to end up with low high quality. However, on the identical time, one can't deny the fact that these durable and prime-quality products are pricey. This persuades many buyers on a price range to search for Louis Vuitton Replica or duplicates of those merchandise. It doesn’t have the sturdy chemical odor that some poor quality replicas have. Carrying a Louis Vuitton purse replica is now not a subject of being belittled. However, once I saw a Louis Vuitton bag replica online whereas shopping online, which was very like the unique in type and design. Upon the first have a look at design, options, critiques, and worth, I brought the GEORGES bag. Finally, I had to admit that it was among the most satisfactory digital purchases so far. This is as a result of not solely did I get the bag at an inexpensive value but I also obtained the same look and feel like the unique one. When you are on a good budget for purchasing a branded LV bag, its fake different is perhaps the best different to think about. Today, it's among the many prime baggage I have in my most sought-after assortment. Even if you’re short on money, we nonetheless received you lined because we also promote pre-owned Louis Vuitton bags. We buy pre-owned designer purses from our seller’s, across the globe and we personal the most effective condition pre-owned branded items. From 1945 to 2000 Louis Vuitton began to incorporate leather-based into most of its merchandise which ranged from small leather purses to leather wallets. Also, these are hooked up to the body of the bag by utilizing an arrow-like shaped leather patch on each end of the handles. Our replica purses, fake watches and accessories collections are vast and discerning at the similar time, both in matters of brands and designs. https://skel.io/wallet-purse-replica.html There is a wide array of high finish manufacturers on our web site and a variety of replica fashions. We make certain to offer the very best quality replicas on the market. This is why we repeatedly work to be the most effective replica website. My instinct was proper and the standard turned out to be fantastic. Stella McCartney, as you could or might not know, is a fashion model owned by Paul McCartney’s (sure – the Beatles band member) daughter. This is due to good-high quality replicas being out there by way of completely different commercial mediums, making them utterly accessible. After a few years of saving an enormous quantity for having a diverse assortment of luxurious luggage, all of it is dependent upon the place you buy these designer fake bags. Offering only such products is my own recommendation, the vendor from whom I introduced. You can buy the identical good LV replicas from HERE. wikipedia wallets When it comes to buying a fake low cost Louis Vuitton bag, there's each good and unhealthy information. The good news is that you could easily find a number of replicas for each bag of this brand. On the other hand, the bad news is that not each fake you see is of excellent high quality. Thus, it is clever to be careful whereas selecting a reproduction. Authentic Louis Vuitton purses range in dimension from mini to tote or backpack, with each measurement in between. Louis Vuitton has a handbag excellent for each type and persona. It is a fact that many replicas of Louis Vuitton purses can be found on many on-line websites as well as departmental outlets and other boutiques providing equipment for women. As per the mannequin and magnificence selected, the fee is more likely to differ significantly. However, there isn't a guarantee that these fashions are of good high quality, which I have described above. As someone whose friends are trendy and stylish with a fashion-conscious mind, I actually have tried several designer goods. This has made my eyes somewhat more astute than a mean Jack.

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[qvistwheeler9]

Discount Louis Vuitton Handbags® On-line 【lv】

This is as a end result of the stick of the “1” that’s too lengthy on the pretend bag. As you'll be able to see, in the true vs pretend LV Pochette coin purse image above, we have identified how the replica coin purse has its text just about completely crooked and badly font-weighed. Leaving the text aside, you can even notice how throughout the leather-based label, there's stitching on each the pretend vs actual LV Neverfull bags. Most women's deepest need is to own a designer handbag. However, you'd agree that their price is ridiculously excessive. For that cause, the recognition of replica Louis Vuitton luggage has grown in latest times. The luxury model produces its handbags in workshops positioned in France, Spain, and the United States, and doesn't outsource manufacturing to cheaper places like India and China. Unfortunately, with the rise of the brand’s popularity also come the counterfeiters. Fake Louis Vuitton luggage have dominated the e-commerce business, resulting in numerous eBay sellers who offer knockoffs at ridiculously low costs. Notice any variation on the brand’s font or sample that doesn’t look fairly proper. Zippers are one other element that can usually be missed when it comes to the creation and buy of counterfeit luggage. Another necessary facet is the colour of the thread. wikipedia handbags The actual deal will nearly at all times have mustard yellow or brown stitching, as opposed to a shiny yellow or different color. One thing that you can check for, nonetheless, is if all the logos minimize off on the similar point. In the image containing the pretend vs actual Louis Vuitton Millionaire sun shades above, we now have seen how the same font-weight flaw applies to the proper wing as nicely. With this being said for the first step of the guide on the means to spot faux Louis Vuitton sunglasses, let’s transfer on to the next way. Starting with the product ID Code on the leftmost side of the temple, you'll find a way to notice how the letters and the numbers on the pretend pair are too thick and too big. As for the first step of the information on how to spot faux Louis Vuitton Millionaire sun shades, we're going to have a glance at the temples for their inscriptions. Got the identical model as Lindsay, will update after I receive it. best replica louis vuitton bags Although I am extremely glad with my bag, there was one small con I suppose are worth mentioning, just so you would possibly be completely conscious of my buying expertise. Scoring a real Louis Vuitton bag is one thing that many fashionistas dream about. The handles of a counterfeit bag can often be a forgotten element. One place you might get the replica purses is in Louis Vuitton. Replica bagmakers before often misspell the manufacturers on purpose for fear of copyright infringement. Nowadays, because of the current advancements in know-how and manufacturing, the replica luggage of today have totally modified. But what really are in these replica finds that hold others coming again for more. [newline]Usual purpose for some is the supply of these things in certain areas. Louis Vuitton, Hermes, Chanel, Gucci, Dior, YSL and different famend style homes as an example have sure collector objects which are designed to cater solely to a chosen few of its clientele. Bought a few purses from the group at Goldexico. Terrific expertise - items had been in excellent condition and value was very fair. On the opposite hand, a bad-quality one will give a plastic feel. Another good point is the high-quality stitch that a Louis Vuitton handmade replica encompasses. As a end result, it becomes onerous to find a noticeable flaw. However, a good-quality copy will have a side stitch that is consistent with that of the unique. I’ve been coming to Goldex for a number of years now and it’s a fantastic service. Gives me sufficient time to pay again for my gadgets, in addition to a refinance possibility for once I can’t pay on time at no further costs. They have outstanding customer service and never fail to satisfy. If the bag is made in France make sure it has a France date code. Also take a glance at the quality of the heat stamp. Make certain the heat stamp is evenly stamped across Neatly.

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[tysonrunningfox]

Ripped: Part 8

I’m really excited about this chapter....here.

AO3

It takes a week to re-open the alley behind the Ripped Tavern.  Hiccup technically could have gone back to an old tour route that starts out front and goes by Astrid’s apartment as its first stop, but he likes the other script better and if he went in that order, he’s not sure how he’d end it.  He saw Heather a few times, the feather in her hat visible above the larger than normal crowd collected around her just outside the caution tape at the mouth of the alley.  So much for losing a few tours in the face of an actual murder.

He had time, if not money, to actually dry clean his hat and coat though and thanks to Snotlout’s unusual generosity, he picks them up the day before he’s set to restart his own tours.  He hasn’t heard anything from Detective Eretson aside from a single phone call asking for Gobber’s information and he feels reasonably safe avoiding suspicion on his old route.  If anything it’d be more suspicious to stop at this point, probably.

“Is the goat smell dead?”  Snotlout greets when he gets home, taking the plastic wrapped coat from him and pressing his nose up against the collar.

“Have you considered that my coat smelled because it was next to your uniform coat after you took the petting zoo call?”

“No, and I won’t.”  He hands it back, “it smells fine now, by the way.”

“And they got the toothpaste out of my hat,” Hiccup demonstrates, gesturing at the clean black felt like it’s the reward on a niche game show.

“It looks…no, it looks dorkier now.”

“I’ll admit the stain had a certain charm,” he hangs it on the hat rack by the door and sits down in his dad’s chair.

A certain charm bestowed upon it by Astrid when she flung her toothbrush at him and started something.  Or maybe he started something when he shined a laser pointer through her window, those are semantics, but something feels started.  He was addled from the long night when he walked her home from the tavern and he thinks he hid it well, but that means the details came back to him slowly over the next few days.

The suspicious way she looked at him when he avoided telling her the whole story all at once.  The way she took his hand when she saw he was upset.  The look she gave Heather when they were interrupted.  Her expression when he showed her his leg, no scrap of pity hidden in the bright curious spark in her eyes, like she was almost glad to have something else to get to investigate.

She keeps him focused in a way he’s never liked until now.

“I’m sure Astrid will whack you with another toothbrush,” Snotlout cuts off his train of thought with a disparaging sigh, “your eyes are glazing over, dude, just text her.  I swear, if you haven’t scared her off with your weirdness by now I don’t think it’s possible.”

“Yeah, she doesn’t scare easy,” he shakes his head.  The only time he’s seen her scared was when they happened to overhear someone’s last scream, a memory that still sends a sick chill down Hiccup’s spine, and it’s made worse by Snotlout’s easy teasing.  He and Snotlout don’t really have secrets, especially legally implicating secrets, but if Hiccup brought it up now it would be obvious that he’s been hiding it, which he has.

He knows Snotlout is stupid and stubborn enough to protect him no matter what, and it���s better for both of them if he looks as innocent as possible.

“So just text her,” Snotlout shrugs, “send her a Venice Gelato fact or something.”

“I know you know his name is Viggo Grimborn.”

“I thought no one knew what his name was because no one ever figured the murders out,” he throws a pen cap at Hiccup’s face and it bounces off his forehead, “see?  I pay attention.”

“For the record, I have been texting her.”  Hiccup scrolls through his phone, “she told me that the cops talked to her and warned her about some cameras and I said thank you.”

“That doesn’t count.”

“Sure it does, it means she’s glad I’m not in jail and she’s telling me what to avoid to keep it that way.”  He hasn’t told Snotlout that he’s waiting for an invitation to the archives for an entirely different reason, namely, the amount of mocking he’d have to endure for being excited about being invited to a room full of musty old newspapers.  It’s the kind of thing to mention after it goes well, especially ever since the first few failed dates he got from tours became Snotlout’s favorite ‘embarrass Hiccup’ stories.    “Fine, I’ll text her.”

Hiccup (6:02pm): hey

Astrid (6:05pm): still not in jail, I see

That’s a kind of a start.  Hiccup can work with that, maybe.  He turns sideways in his dad’s chair, legs over the arm of it to better ignore Snotlout crunching his cereal while watching the evening news.

Hiccup (6:06pm): living in constant fear but when have I ever let that stop me from living my life lol

Astrid (6:06pm): shit, what did you hear?  Are you in trouble? Astrid (6:07pm): I was there

Hiccup (6:08pm): are you offering to be my alibi?

He regrets it as soon as he sends it because alibi sounds like a term of endearment.

Hiccup (6:08pm): not that I need one since I’m not guilty as you know

Astrid (6:09pm): doesn’t the ‘as you know’ kind of automatically make me your alibi?

Hiccup (6:10pm): eh Hiccup (6:10pm): only if you want it to, I could ask Viggo

Astrid (6:11pm): so there are no developments in the case?

Hiccup (6:11pm): not that I’m aware of

Astrid (6:13pm): maybe they just aren’t telling you Astrid (6:13pm): which is good news

Hiccup glances at Snotlout, who’s wiping cereal milk off of his chin with his sleeve, before answering.

Hiccup (6:14pm): I haven’t heard anything about me going to jail

Astrid (6:15pm): I’m off work at 5 tomorrow but I could stay late and show you the Al, I. picture

She punctuates her interpretation of the message precisely and Hiccup smiles to himself.  He does love that she has a theory, he loves that she isn’t listening to what anyone says and instead is finding her own conclusion, most of all because that conclusion seems to include him.

Her theory is wrong, for the record, because the four main Grimborn murders line up very precisely, but there’s no reason to fight her argument, especially the way her eyes light up when she’s making it.

Hiccup (6:15pm): sure, sounds good

00000

Hiccup hasn’t really been to the archives since Snotlout got his full access at the police station.  It’s not that he felt he’d gotten through everything that the archives had to offer, it was more a combination of the fact that he and Heather weren’t really talking anymore and the fact that the police station had so many things he’d never seen.  When he shows up a little after five though and the blonde guy at the front desk gives him a look overflowing with withering recognition, he remembers the other reason he prefers researching elsewhere.

At the police station, he’s always the only person in the file room.  At the archives though, it’s the view of the establishment that he is the wrong kind of obsessive academic.

“Hi, I’m looking for Astrid,” he pauses at the desk to shake the drizzle off of his hat and adjust his bag over his shoulder.

“She told me,” the guy nods curtly and goes back to the blueprint on his desk.  It looks like some kind of manufacturing facility, the machinery drawn out carefully with painstakingly thin lines of black ink.

“Is that the warehouse that used to be over on fifth?”

“It has nothing to do with Viggo Grimborn,” he doesn’t need to look up with his tone making his opinion so obvious.

“I know that,” Hiccup shoves the hand not holding his hat in his pocket, “it was just a pretty building.”

“It was a sweatshop.”

“And the strip mall they put in to replace it isn’t?”  He laughs, “there’s like two Starbucks in it and a seasonal Halloween store.”

“Sorry, Fishlegs,” Astrid rushes out of the back, stopping at the second desk to check something off of a to do list, undone hair falling over her shoulder.  It’s longer than Hiccup thought it was, longer and obviously in the way in a way that suits her.  Of course, she’d be constantly engaging in a battle with something growing out of her head.  “I know I said I wouldn’t make you talk Grimborn.”

“It gets us all eventually,” Fishlegs looks up at her, irritated like a fond older brother roped into playing tea party.  He turns to Hiccup then, eyes drifting from his coat to his hat, lip curling slightly under his respectably waxed moustache.  “But just because I feel like I have to say it, you do know that we have all kinds of historical information. Not just information pertaining to six months in the early eighteen eighties, right?”

“Of course I do, you have all the information on the nineteen fifty-two Grimborn copycat killer, right?”  Hiccup grins, placing his hat back on his head, “I’ll be sure to have a look at that.”

“I remember you,” Fishlegs narrows his eyes, “you’re the guy who broke the photocopier trying to shove a comic book in it.”

“That was three years ago,” he laughs, “and I fixed it.  Which is really ridiculous, because Berk University is still a public institution the last time I checked, so really my tax payer dollars should have fixed it.”

“You don’t pay taxes,” Astrid rolls her eyes, efficiently grabbing Hiccup’s elbow and pulling him towards an aisle made of industrial bookshelves lined two thick with old, yellowed newspapers.

“And he doesn’t even pay taxes,” Fishlegs mutters under his breath before the density of the historic walls blots him out.

“You know, even if I work tax free, I still pay taxes,” Hiccup says, wishing his messenger bag were on the other side instead of bumping into her hip every couple steps and risking alerting her to the fact that she’s still holding onto his elbow.  “Property tax.  Sales tax, I do buy things, when I have money.”

“I didn’t realize online sellers properly taxed Grimborn paraphernalia,” she snorts, letting go if his arm when she turns a corner into a smaller aisle, this one interrupted by a low wooden table, covered in a few spread out papers.  The table is pushed up against a shelf full of stacked volumes of almanacs and encyclopedias from the early eighteen hundreds, as well as manila folders full of carefully catalogued scraps of paper.

“They don’t, but I eat.  Occasionally.”

“Do you?”  She teases, elbowing him in the side as she flips through a Berk Enquirer with careful fingers.

“Again, when I have money.”  He sets his bag down and looks over her shoulder, stepping a little too close when he notices a picture of Bog street that he hasn’t seen before.  She smells like old book dust and something floral and he clears his throat.

“Sorry, I should have just left it on the picture, I got the paper out last minute.”

“No, it’s fine, I love skimming stories about…” it takes a minute to focus on any thing on the page with her so close and he steps to the side and leans against the table instead, “the alien connection to Berk’s city planning.  That’s some hard-hitting journalism right there.”

“You know, almost everything I’ve found has been in the Enquirer,” she pauses, pointing out a bible sales ad in the corner and raising an eyebrow.  “And considering you’re here to see what I found, despite your obvious blood feud with Fishlegs, maybe you shouldn’t disrespect it.”

“Blood feud?”

“I’ve never seen him be that rude to anyone, you knew his blueprint and he still lectured you.”  She laughs and turns one more page, nodding to herself, “here we go.  One Police Constable Brown was kind enough to donate his daily paper, and on this day he made a note of the time when he checked out the courtyard at 324 Harbor Road.”

Hiccup freezes, eyes widening as he takes in the small, grainy picture.  He remembers the way he felt on his first Grimborn tour, standing outside that apartment building and feeling connected to the city for the first time since his dad died.  Like he was somewhere that had lived through tragedy before, somewhere that had recovered.

Astrid steps back to give him space and he picks up the paper, holding it from either side like a police officer did a hundred years ago.  Like his dad used to hold the paper at breakfast, except his dad wasn’t usually reading an article insinuating that a dragon was the cause of the barn fire the week before.

“I can’t believe this exists.”

“What?  The punctuation?”  She’s smiling when he tears his eyes away from the paper, not smug so much as rightfully triumphant.  “Because it definitely does.”

“How did you—I never would have thought to check the Enquirer.”  He shakes his head at the picture, mouthing the caption and sighing.  “Everything surrounding this picture is crap, but it’s…genuine.”

“I would have thought it’d have your name all over it then,” she says too quiet, like she thinks she can keep it a secret from the books around them, absorbing and storing everything over centuries.

“What?”

“You know, Admiral Haddock,” she tucks her hair behind her ear, either embarrassed or annoyed to have to explain herself.  Maybe both.  “It’s complete bullshit, but it’s your favorite theory.”

“Well, yeah, how could it not be?”  He doesn’t think anyone else could tear his eyes away from this paper right now, but Astrid is inexplicably blushing as she tucks her hair behind her ear.  “Do you have one yet?”

“I don’t share a name with an implausible famous serial killer suspect, no.”

“No, do you have a favorite theory yet?”  He can’t put the paper down but he can’t look away from Astrid either.  He’s stuck holding onto a scrap of history he wouldn’t have without her, but it feels more like a springboard to somewhere else.

“Like do I have an opinion about who Viggo Grimborn is?”  She cocks her head, arms crossed, stance so rigid it’s active.  Alive.  Pulsing with things she might tell him if he just shuts up for a second.

He shrugs.  She bites her lip and exhales.

“No, I mean, none of them are a favorite.  All of them are full of holes,” she flips through a notebook that’s also on the table, neat handwriting flying past, “it’s never going to be answered.”

“I know that, but I don’t know, you worked so hard—“

“The Enquirer,” she cuts him off, but she’s smart enough to not take the paper from his hands, instead picking up another issue on the table and showing a larger bible ad, dated before the second murder, and Hiccup’s chest burns.  “It’s been completely ignored because it was a little weird or loud or ridiculous—“

“I know the feeling,” Hiccup watches her because he doesn’t have or want a choice.

“It’s full of witness accounts,” she finds a page and her face lights up, determined and absolutely ready to fight with him, “like here, Reginald Smith of 32 Downer Lane saw lights on the rooftops on the night of Catherine Whittaker’s murder, but it’s reported as an alien appearance—“

“Because he said it was an alien spacecraft,” Hiccup hates himself for interrupting but Astrid’s expression only gets more rigid.  More stern.

She doesn’t want his validation she wants to convince him, to present the facts that make him come around to her idea all on his own.

“Yes, but it was the late eighteen hundreds, he was poor and drunk and uneducated.  He saw something he couldn’t understand and read the cheaper newspaper and extrapolated with what he could.  By cutting out the sources that don’t make the best soundbites, the entire case was…bungled.  Honestly, if the detectives had talked to anyone other than respectable witnesses, maybe you wouldn’t be so obsessed with it today.“

“If you’re going to educate me like this, I think you need the hat,” he laughs, because he doesn’t know what else to do.  He’s never been so scared he’d damage an artifact as his hands start shaking and a bead of sweat blooms on his brow.

“Maybe I do,” she sets her own newspaper down and takes his hat, setting it on her head.  It’s too big, again, falling slightly crooked to the right, but that doesn’t change how bright the black wool makes her eyes look.  “The investigation was completely swayed by the same class distinction as the crimes, if you dig through the Enquirer for what?  An hour?  Ten minutes?  You’ll find multiple reports of people seeing lights on rooftops or mythical creatures in the woods that almost perfectly align with some drunk idea of already named suspects.  Are you saying you’ve never read a description of Drago Bludvist and thought sasquatch?”  She laughs, shrill and convincing, her face on fire.  “Because I have a description somewhere here…”

She starts to flick through the spare few papers she has laid out on the table, her tongue barely peeking out of the corner of her mouth, and Hiccup doesn’t know he’s moving until he is.  He doesn’t decide to let go of one side of the paper he’s holding, he doesn’t decide to touch her jaw, his fingers curling gently around her chin as she freezes, eyes wide.

He does choose to kiss her though, the brim of his own top hat against his forehead.

She exhales softly, a shaky hand landing against his arm as she responds, as slowly and enthusiastically as she does to everything.  Her lips move like she hasn’t forgot her determination and Hiccup slides out, his hand to her waist and pulls her close, the crinkle of newspaper filling the silent hallway.

“Wait,” she pushes him away, gentle like she’s scared of offending him even though she’s obviously already offended, “the paper—“

“Sorry.”

“No, it’s old, this is a hundred years old,” she pulls back far enough to set the paper he’s been holding in a single clenched fist into a careful layer.

Then she smooths over it with a gentle palm, biting her lower, slightly swollen lip.  It’s careful document care, her hands worrying the paper with quick, sure motions. His tophat falls down over her forehead and she adjusts it, the brim of it setting heavy on her ear and making it stick out further. He doesn’t think his heart has ever pounded this hard in his life.

She stands up and her wide eyes dart to his lips. He surges forward before he can think twice, one hand on her waist and the other on the back of her head as he pushes her against the bookcase, his lips meeting hers somewhere along the way.  He swallows her grunt that verges on a moan, fingers curling in her sweatshirt as her arms wrap around his neck. She holds him close, like she’s scared he’ll try and get away and he kisses her like he can convey that’s the last thing on his mind.

She’s warm and soft, all long lean lines arching against him as he slides his hand to her hip, her cold fingers tangling in the hair at the nape of his neck. There’s a thud, but he can’t tell if it’s his heart or something else and he ignores it, kissing along her jaw and trying to remember how to breathe. She grabs his chin and pulls his mouth back to hers.

Another thud.

Breathing isn’t important anyway, why was he so hung up on it in the first place?

She hooks her heel behind his knee and he loses balance slightly, catching himself on the metal edge of the bookshelf. The clang can’t compete with Astrid’s hand fisted in the front of his coat though and his hand dips under her sweatshirt to feel the smooth skin of her lower back.

“Come on, guys!” Someone yells and Astrid pulls back with a surprised gasp, tophat deeply crooked, lips swollen and chin red from stubble.

“Shit, sorry Fishlegs,” she pushes him off, gently, tugging her sweatshirt down and wiping her mouth on the back of her hand. Fishlegs is at the end of the aisle with his arms crossed, tapping his foot like a dad two minutes after curfew and Hiccup can’t hold in the laugh that bubbles in his chest.

“Yeah, sorry Fishlegs.”

“You took out half the Britannicas,” he nods at the dozen or so encyclopedias on the floor, explaining the thuds.

“I’ll clean it up, sorry,” Astrid tries to fix her hair but blushes impossibly deeper when she brushes the brim of the hat still on her head.

“It was a pristine collection—”

“I said I’ll fix it.”

“If any corners are blunted—”

“Fishlegs!” She snaps, glancing at Hiccup out of the corner of her eye, “can you give us a second? Please?” The last word is gritted through her teeth, politely threatening.

“This is what I get for helping with Grimborn research,” he grumbles under his breath as he walks away, “it took me years to get that eighteen eighty seven and it ends up on the floor…”

“So, umm—” Hiccup starts but Astrid doesn’t seem to be listening, instead picking up books and dedicatedly checking their corners.

“Help me get these onto the table at least, I’m going to be here an hour cleaning this up.”

“Sure,” he picks up too and looks over at her, that adorable tongue sticking out again as she squints at a publication page and smooths it carefully in a way that makes his heart rate tick up again. “Are they ok?”

“Yeah, they’re fine, Fishlegs is just being, well, Fishlegs.” She sets the book down and pauses, looking at him carefully, cheeks still stained bright red, “so, umm, what are you doing after this?”

“What am I doing after this?” The question doesn’t quite register. It’s not a question she should be asking him after he came to her job and insulted her research and made her wear a stupid, but somehow-incredibly-attractive-on-her hat before attacking her against a bookcase. He swallows hard.

“In case you wanted to talk about…you know,” she waves at the bookcase and bites her lip, as hesitantly open as she was definitively closed on the first tour she took with him.

Fuck. His tour.

“I have a tour,” he checks the time, “I have a tour in…about as much time as it takes to get there if I run, I’ve got to go.”

“Right, your tour, sorry—”

“No, no, no. Don’t apologize,” he runs a frantic hand through his hair, “and I really hate to do this. Like, I don’t think you understand how much I hate to do this, but…I need this back.” He plucks his hat carefully off of her head. “I’ve got to go, I—”

“Go, I’ll talk to you later,” she waves him off, making a vain effort to fix her staticky hair. A lock of her bangs is sticking out to the side and he wants to smooth it down but if he touched her right now, he wouldn’t stop.

And that’s bad because he’d miss his tour. And he’s out of money. Even if Astrid is looking at him, he still has to care about money, right?

“Ok, yeah, later.”

00000

It’s really hard to give a tour when every other word in his head is ‘Astrid’. Viggo Astrid Grimborn Astrid was Astrid a really Astrid bad Astrid guy. It’s harder to give a tour when questions stall him for twenty minutes at the fourth murder site, questions he doesn’t want to answer. Questions about a recent murder that he doesn’t want to think about.

“I heard from the bartender inside that the body was positioned exactly like Mary Johnson,” a man with coke bottle glasses that make him look a little too fascinated with everything asks eagerly, staring at the storm drain and reminding Hiccup what he saw. “Down to the placement of the intestines—”

“I don’t know anything about that,” he lies, “it’s an ongoing murder case, I’m here to do a tour about Viggo Grimborn if anyone wants to listen to that.”

“But surely you must be interested in the resemblance—”

“I’m not. Or even if I was, it’s an ongoing murder case, I’m not going to stand here in an alley I tour nightly and talk about it.” He starts walking and hopes the larger than usual group will follow. They did already pay, but that’s not why he does this, why he wants to do it. The copy of the ‘All Safe’ message in his bag burns to be shown around and his brain flicks back to Astrid, Astrid, Astrid. Astrid. “I’ve got reasons to stay out of custody for looking accidentally guilty.”

“I heard they arrested someone when they found the body,” someone murmurs and glasses speaks up.

“Do you know anything about that?”

“No, I don’t. I know about Victorian slums and Viggo Grimborn and the fact that the local reverend believed that decreasing the cost of bibles would infuse the community with renewed Christianity and righteousness and that would fix the prostitution problem,” he gestures at the church as they walk past, “instead of, you know, feeding people.”

“I just don’t think you understand the statistical improbability of identical intestine placement of two disemboweled corpses found at the exact same spot over a hundred years apart—”

“I also took high school statistics,” Hiccup sighs, pausing to face the group, “and like half a college statistics course, but that’s not—let’s get one thing straight. The women who died a hundred years ago and the woman who died last week aren’t corpses, or they are, but—they were people with feelings and lives and yes, the circumstances of their death is morbidly fascinating, but does that mean we ignore the circumstances of their life?”

It’s silent for a second and someone in the back raises their hand.

“Yeah, go ahead, despite the lecture this isn’t a class.”

“Do you think it’s a copycat killer?” They ask and Hiccup sighs heavily.

“Onto site one.”

#ripped #hiccstrid #modern au #httyd fic #hiccstrid fic #serial killer tour guide au

[hamidshojaee]

Tesla Stock, Short Sellers, EVs and Autonomous Cars

If you follow Tesla's stock closely, you fall into one of 2 camps:

Tesla is going bankrupt. Its cars are crap. It never delivers on its promises, the whole company is mismanaged, run by a con artist who has built a house of cards waiting to collapse. Elon Musk has no idea what he's doing and his continued mismanagement is about to cause Tesla to crash and burn and its stock is on its way to $0.

Tesla is an amazing company. It makes the world's best cars. It continues to defy the odds, making cars deemed impossible by others, a reality. On its way to deliver a sustainable future, Tesla will own the transportation industry and become a Trillion-Dollar company. Elon Musk is a visionary, and key to Tesla's success.

The two camps are polar opposites and each camp gets more convinced of its position with every passing Tesla announcement. But of course, only one of these narratives can be correct.

This article will answer the question: is Tesla destined for greatness or doomed to fail?

Before we can answer that, lets review some fundamentals...

The Stock Market

The stock market is a complicated beast and understanding it is beyond the scope of this article. However, it would be good to review 2 fundamental rules of the stock market:

Rule #1: In the short term, a company's stock price is a reflection of supply & demand. More buyers than sellers equates to a higher price for the stock. More sellers than buyers equates to a lower price for the stock.

Rule #2: In the long term, a stock's price will largely represent the fundamental value of the company. Revenues, profits and growth are the 3 key contributors to the long-term price of a stock.

Easy enough, but because of the significant fluctuations of the stock market on a day-to-day basis due to rule #1, many believe investing in stocks is the equivalent of gambling. That's probably an accurate description for investors who have a short term horizon of days, weeks or even months. Without insider knowledge, its nearly impossible to predict a stock's performance on a short-term basis and with insider’s knowledge, it’s illegal to trade a stock. So short term investing is a lot like gambling.

But unlike gambling in the casino where the odds are always in the house’s favor, short term investing in stocks can be manipulated by simply changing investor opinions. To understand how this is done, watch this video by one of CNBCs biggest anchors and a daily stock manipulator, Jim Cramer:

Crazy as it seems, its perfectly legal to sell a stock you don’t own (this is called “shorting a stock”), then spread crazy, unsubstantiated rumors about the company being on the verge of bankruptcy. Then when investors panic and sell the stock, you “cover” your short position by purchasing the stock again at a lower price than what you had sold it for. In summary:

You sell a stock you don’t own (“shorting”)

You spread misinformation about the stock to lower its price

You purchase back the stock at a lower price

Tesla’s stock is currently one of the most shorted stocks in the stock market. More than 32 million shares of Tesla stock (about $8 Billion worth) are sold, for which the seller doesn’t own the stock. If you think this seems like some sort of crazy loophole scheme that some day we’ll look back at and wonder how this was ever legal, you’d be right. Short sellers have every incentive to spread Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt (known as FUD) about a stock in the hope that the stock goes down, ideally to $0 where they can purchase their shorted shares for a fraction of what they sold it for.

Not all investors gamble and bet on miserable outcomes.

The most successful investors generally have a long-term horizon of years, and they don’t generally gamble on anything. They evaluate companies based on fundamentals and future potential, then they invest in opportunities that have the highest potential return and hold on to the stock long-term.

This strategy is summed up in 1 sentence by the most successful investor of all time, Warren Buffett: “Our favorite holding period is forever.”

If you are a short-term investor, this article will have no value for you. I have zero knowledge of what Tesla's stock will do in the coming days, weeks or even months.

But if you are (or considering to be) a long-term investor in Tesla, we should be able to answer the question of whether or not Tesla has a bright future...

Disruptive Technology and the Innovator's Dilemma

In the late 90s, I read a book called The Innovator's Dilemma. In it, Clayton Christensen describes why market leaders are often set up to fail as technologies and industries change. His brilliant book was later named "one of the six most important books about business ever written" by The Economist. Christensen argues that market leaders tend to maintain their leadership positions because of their market reach and power, until that is, there is a disruptive technology that comes along and over time unseats them from their leadership position.

An easy way to understand this concept is to look backwards at industries that had dominant players that changed. Examples would include companies like IBM who maintained their leadership in the computing world (despite heavy competition), until the PC disruption occurred. Kodak maintained their leadership in Photography until the digital disruption occurred. Microsoft maintained its massive leadership in software, until the Internet disruption occurred.

Leading companies maintain their leadership because they have name recognition, a distribution network, lots of financial resources to fight new competition, not to mention the experience to build great products that helped them become a leader in the first place. IBM knew how to make mainframes. Kodak knew film. Microsoft knew desktop software, and so on.

However, when a disruptive technology comes along, there is no established market for the new technology. Even when there is a market, it's relatively small compared to the revenues of a market leader. Incumbent leaders see the new market as a distraction to their already established $20, $50, $100 Billion or larger businesses. Nobody has time to invest in and chase after a market that's 1/100th their core business.

Therefore, disruptive technologies are often developed and improved by newcomers who see the potential. To a newcomer with $0 in revenues, $1 Billion is a great market opportunity to chase. To Ford, that’s 0.75% of their revenues. But once a new startup hits $1 Billion in revenues from a disruptive technology, they have major competitive advantage as they have been accumulating name recognition, a distribution network, the experience and talent to continue to be a leader in the disruptive category.

By the time Microsoft was a Billion-Dollar company, it was too late for IBM to dominate the new PC world. By the time Google became a Billion-Dollar company, it was too late for Microsoft to dominate the Internet world.

You get the idea. Lets move on to cars and Tesla...

The EV Disruption in the Car Industry

For nearly a hundred years, the US car industry has been lead by 3 automakers: Ford, Chrysler and GM. Internationally, they are joined by Toyota, VW, Hyundai, Nissan and small handful of others. For decades, these companies have fine tuned the art of designing, manufacturing, distributing and selling impressive cars that all rely on a fundamental marvel of engineering:

Harnessing the combustion of fossil fuels to power a transportation device.

For better or for worse, this pinnacle of human technology has helped humanity achieve unimaginable advancements that would not have been possible without the Internal Combustion Engine (ICE). But we also now know that ICE-based engines are responsible for huge amounts of greenhouse gasses that are rapidly warming earth and causing catastrophes around the globe.

For the past few decades, car companies had provided no real alternative to gas-powered vehicles, citing that electric cars are impractical, cost too much, and they are a niche market that nobody wants. They argued that electric cars end up being just as bad for the environment because they simply move the burning of fossil fuels from the vehicle to the power plant.

These excuses not to invest in electric vehicles, is the classic "incumbent leader vs. disruptive technology" syndrome.

It turns out that with the proper research and investment, electric cars are practical, they can be competitively priced, and they are far more efficient than gas-powered vehicles, even if the local power plant is burning coal! Most importantly, based on the success of Tesla's Model S, X and 3, it turns out that they are not a niche market after all. Given a good choice, consumers would pick electric cars over their gas-powered counterparts by a wide margin. The way we know this is because all 3 of Tesla's cars are leaders in their category and Tesla has shown that Electric cars can provide far superior performance, maintenance and joy of driving, than their gas-powered counterparts.

Tesla has Awakened the Giants

Great! Tesla has shown electric cars are in fact the future. All the major car companies now agree. Every major car company plans to completely revitalize their lineups with electric options. Finally! The giants have been awakened. With the enormous resources that these companies have (collectively near $1.5 Trillion in annual revenues), it's game over for Tesla, right?

Well, not so fast. Disruptive technology is unkind to the incumbents. Turns out Kodak was a pioneer in digital photography in the 1990s and had the most advanced digital photography technology in the world before digital photography was even a thing. My first digital camera was a Kodak - it's actually how I met my wife, but that's a different story. Similarly, GM was light years ahead of its competition back in 1996 with the EV1. But when you have a $100 Billion+ business selling gas-powered engines, and all of your headaches are caused by the business unit that's generating no revenues and is only costing your company hundreds of millions in investment, it's easy to see why these companies would shut down their disruptive technology research!

The argument today is that the car companies finally see the potential, and this time around, they are throwing $10s of billions at electric car lines, so the results will be different.

Here is the problem: Imagine you are Ford. You build more than 1 million trucks per year and you want to offer an electric version of your truck. You can't stop building the gas-powered trucks because that's your current bread and butter. Without it, you will die. So you have to add a whole new lineup of trucks that are electric. After years of trying, Ford has learned the hard way, that virtually nothing about their gas-powered Truck-building knowledge translates to building an electric truck. Their designers have no experience designing trucks where the battery needs to be in the floor. Their engineers are Mechanical Engineers who build combustion engines and know virtually nothing about electric circuits and electrical components necessary to control electric flow into an electric motor. Even their manufacturing processes are not easily translatable to building battery packs. It turns out it's so freakin hard, even for Ford, to build an electric truck, that it's given up and instead invested $500 Million into an electric startup called Rivian.

And Ford is not alone. The Tesla Model S was released in 2012. Since then, it quickly became the top selling car in the luxury sedan category, destroying the sales of Mercedes' S class, BMW's 7 series and a handful of other luxury cars. Every one of those luxury brands has been promising an electric "Tesla Killer" that has yet to arrive.

The disruption of Electric Vehicles is here and real, but there are no guarantees that existing car companies can make, or even survive the transition to EVs.

If the EV disruption wasn't enough to shake up the landscape, there are two other major disruptions affecting the car industry...

Car on Demand and Autonomous Vehicles

There is no question that ride sharing services like Uber and Lyft have completely changed and are disrupting consumer expectations for transportation. The convenience of having a car magically appear exactly where you happen to be, has even made many reconsider whether or not they need to own a car. If you can spend $500/month and have a Chauffeur drive you around everywhere, why would you buy a car that needs maintenance, pay for insurance, gas, and have the headache of driving when you could spend that time on a productive task?

Take away the driver, and you've eliminated the only negative in that equation. The risk of having a stranger drive you around, or to have to maintain an awkward conversation you don't want to have is gone. The driver is also the highest portion of the cost for the trip. The holy grail of transportation is getting a car on demand using autonomous technology to get you to your destination. Safer. Cheaper. More convenient.

Every car company, as well as Uber, Lyft, even Google and Apple realize this is the future. The race is on - the only question is when and who will emerge as the winners.

While Uber and Lyft seem to have a technical advantage by already providing the exact same service, but using a driver, it's counter-intuitive to realize that Uber and Lyft are actually at a major disadvantage to providing driverless vehicle services. Assuming they build the autonomous technology necessary to accomplish driverless trips, the cost of having to buy the vehicles, then upgrade them post-production to add autonomy, will mean their cost per vehicle will be significantly higher. But even worse is the fact that these companies employ hundreds of thousands of drivers who make a living on the Uber and Lyft network. There would be no ambiguity who the bad guys are if Uber or Lyft start to put these drivers out of a job. The same companies that were once hailed as Job Creators would become the villains that are now killing the very jobs they created. It's unlikely that either Uber or Lyft will survive this transition, but fortunately for them, this transition will take years.

Then there is the car companies like GM, Ford, Daimler Benz and others who are investing billions in self-driving technologies. While car companies have a legitimate shot at building autonomous technologies, their expertise has never been in software development. Car companies are notoriously horrible at making software. Just look at how many taps, clicks and movements it takes to enter a destination address into any car navigation system. This is a problem that was solved by Google and Apple more than 10 years ago, yet for the past 10 years, none of the car companies have been able to figure out how to simply copy existing patterns for entering in an address into a navigation system. For these car companies to miraculously figure out computer vision, neural networks and all the other software technologies necessary for autonomous driving seems like an unlikely event.

The real competition for autonomous driving and car-on-demand is a 3-way race between Tesla, Google and maybe Apple.

Google seems to have the advantage here. It has had an autonomous research unit since 2004 and its Waymo car service is actually giving rides in production (with a backup driver). This advantage can't be underestimated. Google also has the resources to buy 100,000 cars, equip them with autonomy, and put them on the road. Such an investment would cost Google, a company with nearly $100 Billion in cash, just $10 Billion to do. Although to get to 1 Million autonomous cars, it would require all of Google’s cash, nearly a $100 Billion investment. Doable for a company like Google, but certainly not cheap. Google is in an awesome shape in this race.

Then there is Apple. With the secrecy that Apple operates with, it's unclear what Apple is planning, but we might be able to make some speculations. First, Apple definitely lags behind Google because they don't have nearly as many cars on the road. Second, it's highly unlikely Apple will choose to build its own cars. Manufacturing cars would take years, at least 3-5 years, to iron out. If they wanted to make cars, they would have had to start building plants a while ago. Apple’s best bet is to follow Google's strategy, use its massive cash reserves to buy cars, outfit them with autonomous technology, and put them on the road. Under the leadership of Tim Cook, it's unlikely this "me too" strategy of copying Google will work, especially if Apple's other businesses ever have hiccups. If Apple sales ever decrease, the pressure on Apple would be to stay focused on its core business of iPhones.

And finally, there is Tesla. Tesla is probably far behind Google in Autonomous technology, but what's impressive about Tesla is the rate of improvement. This rate of improvement is also accelerating because of the number of vehicles Tesla has on the market that are equipped with its self-driving hardware sensors. Lets do a little math...

For every car that is equipped with self-driving hardware:

Google, Apple and others spend somewhere between $100,000 - $150,000 plus pay for a backup driver (for now)

Tesla makes a gross profit of $10,000 - $20,000 (Model 3 or Model S/X) and gets a free backup driver (the owner)

This advantage for Tesla is absolutely insane. While others have to buy their cars, equip them with self-driving technology, then hire a backup driver to drive the car around, Tesla gets to sell its self-driving technology to its customers allowing its customers to finance the deployment of these cars all over the world, while it makes a profit on selling each one.

Think about that for a moment. In order for Google to put 1 Million self-driving cars on the road (after the technology is perfected), it will cost Google $100 Billion. Tesla on the other hand will make $10 to $20 Billion in profits by deploying a million self-driving vehicles. In fact, it's already done exactly that by deploying around 400,000 cars that have the hardware sensors needed for self-driving. It’s already gathering data from 400,000 cars, and its doing so while making money from each of those cars!

More than the cost of the cars, Tesla has another major advantage. The AI and Machine Learning needed to perfect self-driving is heavily data dependent. The more cars you have on the road with the hardware sensors, the bigger variety of road conditions you encounter, and therefore, the faster the AI algorithms learn. Tesla has the largest fleet of cars, deployed in the widest array of geographical locations, giving it a major advantage for data collection to teach its algorithms how to drive. And it’s doing this without having to employ backup drivers or paying for the cars. Tesla's backup drivers are the vehicle owners who paid full-price for the privilege of being a backup driver for Tesla’s autonomous AI going to school!

The Tesla advantage is incredible. Nothing like this has ever existed! This is a major disruptive advantage that no other car company in the world has. It’s also something that’s beyond the understanding of most Wall Street analysts. They have nothing to compare it to.

Tesla’s Autonomy Day

If Tesla's future is so bright, why is it that so many Wall Street analysts have a "Sell” or “Underperform” rating on the stock?

Great question! Let's dig into that.

Last week I had the fortunate experience of attending Tesla’s autonomy day.  At the event, I had a chance to talk to several wall street analysts that cover Tesla. In my conversations, I realized a critical factor: Tesla is covered by “automotive analysts.” When I would ask about their thoughts on Uber or Lyft, they mentioned those stocks are covered by their “Internet analysts.” This is a huge discrepancy in viewpoints. The automotive industry hasn't had major new players in many decades. Existing players go bankrupt regularly (GM, Chrysler, etc.). Their margins are extremely low and investing in disruptive technologies usually means making an SUV that can give 20 miles per gallon - not exactly a revolutionary disruption. It's not that these analysts hate Tesla, it's that they are comparing Tesla to Ford or GM and they have no idea why Tesla would be worth more. In their world, a car company doesn't ever have a 10x increase in sales. Tesla is an anomaly that they don't understand. Car companies are often valued at just 0.5x revenues because of their low profit margins. Tesla is valued at 2x revenues, so it appears way over-valued.

On the other hand, you have companies like Uber and Lyft being evaluated by "Internet Analysts." As a result, despite the extremely low margins of Uber and Lyft, these companies are getting valuations that are 10x their revenues! In comparison, Tesla has a faster growth rate, higher margins, and a larger market potential, but is being valued (on a revenue basis) at about 1/5th the price!

Tesla’s self-driving technology is not yet perfect, but it’s pretty damn good:

Even if it takes Tesla several years to iron out the AI software, every year, it just keeps accumulating vehicles that all have self-driving hardware. Then with 1 Over The Air (OTA) update, all of them can become Robo Taxis overnight. Imagine a company that goes from having 0 Robo Taxis to all of a sudden having 1 million or 2 million Robo Taxis all over the world! Each one has the potential to add thousands of dollars to Tesla’s profits.

Elon Musk and Tesla Mistakes

Tesla and by extension, Elon Musk, have made their share of mistakes. Turns out great companies make mistakes all the time on the road to success. Some pay for them with punishments on the stock price...

In 2011, Netflix announced they were splitting their DVD business and separately charging for streaming and DVD. The results were pandemonium. Wall Street analysts turned on Netflix. Short sellers cashed in on the panic and cited competition from HULU and Verizon - announcing the death of Netflix. They spend too much, have too much debt and not enough cash to live long. Sound familiar? As the stock price nose-dived from $40/share (split adjusted) to just $9 per share, it seemed like the panic was real and Netflix’s days were numbered. Just look at their stock chart during that period:

But of course, the panic was not real. The rumors of Netflix’s demise was just pure fabrication and despite so many people losing money for selling on the panic that was falsely generated, nobody ever went to jail! That’s what’s wrong with short sellers. They create a false narrative on purpose specifically with the intention of causing a stock to go down.

In the years that followed, Netflix continued to deliver quarter after quarter and eventually the false narrative of Netflix getting destroyed could no longer be supported. As a result, Netflix’s stock shot back up and has gone up more than 42x (that’s 4,200%!!!) since 2011 lows.

The arrow in this chart points to the right-most part of the chart above!

If you had invested $2,500 in Netflix when the Wall Street experts had turned on them with “Sell” ratings and journalists were predicting the end of Netflix, your investment would be worth $100,000 today!

Similar stories exist for Apple in 2000 under Steve Jobs, and Facebook in their first year of going public. Who remembers the headlines “Twitter is Dead” just a few years ago? The stock is up more than 200% since Twitter was declared dead. The examples are endless. When the foundation of a company is solid, irrational fears create opportunities to buy. 

In fact, Warren Buffett has another great quote that applies here: “We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”

Evaluating Tesla Rationally

So how can you tell if Tesla is truly over-valued and about to go bankrupt, or if it’s legitimately a great buy because of all the panic and fear that has been created? Great question. While we wait for all the Tesla Killer EVs to come out, let’s look at the facts around Tesla:

#1: Tesla Revenues have increased by 400% in 4 years!

No other public company in the world has had this kind of growth with similar numbers. In fact, Tesla’s awful, horrible, couldn’t get worse, Q1 2019 results generated more revenues than Tesla did in all of 2015! Tesla’s stock price is roughly about the same as it was in 2015. The stock has a ton of stored energy.

#2: Tesla has 3 cars, each of which are the #1 selling car in their category. Not by a small margin, but by a large margin! The Model S, X and Model 3 are all the best-selling cars in their respective categories, which is pretty incredible when you consider how few variations they have.

#3: Tesla Q1 2019, supposedly their worst quarter ever, had a year-over-year revenue increase of more than 33% and they made 110% more cars than the same quarter in Q1 2018.

#4: Tesla car owners are amongst the happiest, most satisfied and most likely to buy another Tesla, than any other car company! Have you ever spoken to a Tesla owner that said “oh man, I wish I never bought a Tesla?”

#5: The fastest super cars in the world have a hard time keeping up with Tesla’s 7 passenger SUV, but if that wasn’t bad enough for the future of gas-powered vehicles, the new Tesla Roadster 2 goes from 0 – 60 MPH in just 1.9 seconds!

In the meantime, for the past 4 years that I have been following Tesla, these have been the headlines:

These headlines are just Friday’s top stories about Tesla on Yahoo Finance. Day after day, the stories on Tesla’s stock in the finance news pages are negative. Meanwhile, Tesla continues to defy the odds and makes products everyone else thinks it was impossible. The very same people who thought the Model S was not possible, then the Model X, then the Model 3, then producing 5,000 of them per week, are amongst the loudest critics still! Not a single one ever goes on CNBC and says “you know what, I was wrong - turns out, Tesla can make 5,000 Model 3s per week. I was wrong!” Yet, there they are, day-after-day, making their next bogus prediction of doom. You would think I made this stuff up. It’s crazy! Just watch this exchange between CNBC anchors and Cathy Woods (start at around 3:48 into it for the Tesla portion):

If Tesla continues to deliver with the Model Y, the Tesla Truck, Roadster 2, the Semi and other future cars, and there is little reason to think they wouldn’t considering their track record, Tesla will likely exceed $200 Billion in revenues within 10 years. 

And that’s not even taking the potential upside of autonomous driving. If their dream of creating a Robo Taxis becomes a reality, their margins will easily double or triple during that same timeframe. When you combine these factors, Tesla has a shot to be a Trillion-Dollar company in 10 years. That would put their stock price at over $5,000/share!

I’m going to end with 1 more Warren Buffet quote: "If you aren't willing to own a stock for ten years, don't even think about owning it for ten minutes.”

P.S. I’m not affiliated with Tesla in any way. I’m just a tech investor (been doing it for 25 years) who has never seen a more crystal clear opportunity with a public company. In hindsight, it’s obvious that companies like Apple, Netflix, Facebook, etc. were going to be huge successes, but sometimes the FUD factor (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt) that is created around companies by their competitors, journalists and “shorts” (those who bet against the stock then go out and make up lies and false rumors), causes stocks to have a mismatch between their value and their actual price. 

And there’s this:

#tesla #autonomous #stock #tsla #tslaq #driving #supercars

[donbrownposts]

Creative Selling

FEAR OF NO                                                                                                                                   

 Why do so many people fear the word no?  Is this word so negative you would sometimes wish it never existed?   Imagine how your childhood would have been if mom or dad never told you no? Stay up all hours, hang out with your friends all night on week days or ever worry about what your mom or dad would say if you did not do your homework or complete a term paper? How about that school teacher who made you keep quiet in class or send you to the principal’s office after throwing an object across the classroom or pushing the fire alarm on a snowy day? How great it would be if you just did not have to deal with the word NO!  

 Doesn't salesmen deal with no all the time or military personnel are constantly told no throughout their tour of duty and of course we all at one time or another had to face rejection from the opposite sex while finally getting the nerve to ask and then THAT BIG FAT WORD NO. Yes, we are all told no all the time whatever it's being rejected by the opposite sex or told you did not qualify for a certain sports event or get that great job offer that would push your career to the next level?  It is all part of life and will always be around regardless of how you make a living or perhaps want to buy a car and the finance company rejects your loan request or declines your application for a mortgage on your dream home. No matter who you are or what you do there will be times when one must sell something including yourself. No is just a big part of the process and selling is a process.

Selling Your Self or Something

What actually does sell yourself or selling something actually mean? Perhaps a better word might be persuasion. Isn't to persuade the same as to sell someone? First let us look at the definition of persuasion. “The action or fact of persuading someone or being persuaded to do or believe something.” Other words associated with persuasion are coercion, inducement, encouragement, urging, enticement, and wheeling. If you are going into B2B  sales the most important word you can or should remember is ethics. This word goes a long way in selling oneself which is the key in selling any product or service.

 Persuasion, in my opinion, is nothing more than presenting facts to support a theory or hypothesis that answers a question or solves a problem. Ben Franklin as everyone is familiar with from the history of the United States was faced with proving that lightning and electricity was the same. Mr. Franklin, as we all know, did the famous kite flight with a metal key attached to a wire on the kite and when the lightning struck the kite, Mr. Franklin felt a strong shock that proved lightning was in fact electricity. This obviously proved that Ben Franklin's theory of lighting and electricity is the same and was of course an excellent example of persuasion. The power of persuasion is not to force or to push someone into buying something regardless of the results, but is the ability to help solve a problem in his or her business. One can follow all the text book strategies and tactics in the world, and which is important, but nothing is going to happen until both the customer and the seller meets agreement on a specific problem and the seller can demonstrate to the buyer a successful solution that solves the problem. The case of Berger Industries, Maspeth, NY is a perfect case example to illustrate this.

 A purchasing agent of several years and who just recently joined the company is briefed by the company's Chief Engineer that the new plastic pipeline product is having issues with assembly of the O'Ring seal, it was very time consuming and frustrating the assembly operator and supervisor. It was originally estimated that the process would take 20 to 30 seconds to install and has been actually taking over one minute and sometimes longer. The operator has to struggle while sliding the rubber seal over the pipe and due to excessive friction finds it to be a very hard in pushing the O'Ring into the groove.” This job was supposed to be a high profit maker but at this rate it will be a definite loser.”  The new purchasing agent Norm while holding his finger to his chin expressed, “Let me make a few calls and see what might be done about this.” “There must be a simpler way of accomplishing this. “up Armed with his list of prior relationships in the rubber seal business, places a call to a reputable supplier of rubber products that he did business with at one of his previous employers. Norm was put in contact with myself and after explaining the situation I scheduled an appointment for the following morning. We had the usual hand shake and simple conversation over coffee and after a brief meeting was introduced to the chief engineer and assembly supervisor. Looking at the application reminded me of the exact same problem with another plastic pipe manufacturer. The problem in assembly of O'Ring Seals over any pipe is a significant amount of friction.  I asked the customer for a few days to produce some prototype samples and would get back to them. I immediately placed a sample order and had O'Rings in a special compound as I promised delivered to Norm and engineer for test and evaluation. The engineer and assembly supervisor were amazed as to how much faster and  

easier the O'Rings slipped over the pipe and into the groove. Their original estimate of 20 seconds per seal was reduced in half to under 19 seconds. Smiles from ear to ear came across to all three participants and obviously I walked out afterwards with a contract for a two-year supply. Our compound was specified as sole source and a two-year contract had the business locked up and out of reach from competition. This is an example of servicing an UN-served market resident immediately flew up to meet with me and question my company loyalty and why I cost the company so much money by selling a special compound as opposed to selling parts already in stock.  Once he heard the total story the facts of the case he quickly came to my support and someone else got faced with further training on understanding customer’s needs.    

 Prospective employees waiting for their job interview, a businessman making the first step of a start-up business or baseball pitcher trying out for a major or minor league baseball team all have the common denominator of the word no. What makes this word so powerful that it puts so many strong people into a frenzy and such a deep fear and anxiety? Such a simple and common word that in many of us will do almost anything to avoid dealing with it.  Why would so many people carry so much negative emotion so afraid of the outcome of events?  What we do need to realize is that fear in atoll shapes and sizes is a part of everyone's life and it is just about impossible to change that. Famous actors also go through fear of rejection with almost every audition, entrepreneurs may start over twenty business o [opportunities before finding one successful one, polished sales people will make several presentations and be rejected as well as some of the best criminal attorneys will experience some losses at one time or another. Perry Mason even lost a few. You may ask, “Why does these people never fear no or rejection?” It might surprise you, but everyone does at various points in their life. The greatest people, in spite of their success, feels fear and rejection almost all the time. It usually turns out however that fear is never the issue but how one handles fear and rejection is what really matters. In fact, fear is all over the place such as a businessman waiting for a decision on a very important business loan or salesman presenting a product to a new prospect.  Both of these people are looking for different results but are feeling the same tension and anxiety that is associated with them

fear. Why is this so? Let us look at different levels of fear and the pluses of fear as well as the negatives.

Fear and Rejection

According to Matt James, PHD. Fear is a basic human emotion. It was wired into our systems for a

beneficial purpose—to signal us in times of danger and prepare us physically so we could accomplish what is necessary for survival.” “Fear lets you see only the downside, and that won't get you very far.”  “When warranted, fear can be one of our most vital resources, but as Helen Keller said, "Avoiding danger is no safer in the long run than out-right exposure”.  “The fearful are caught as often as the bold." “These days, fear has become big business rather than a helpful, valuable resource.” “We live in a climate fueled by fear while the media manipulates fear to earn higher ratings with headlines such as will major storm hit Your Neighborhood while merchandisers tap our fear to sell products.” “ Politicians stir up fear to accumulate votes, religious leaders employ fear to keep flocks in line, and parents use fear to keep kids from misbehaving.”  “Fear is woven into the fabric of our lives, perhaps affecting modern adults even more than it did our caveman ancestors.”

“A recent article in the New York Observer recently claimed that “fear is the new normal.”[1] Fear influences the choices we make  yet making decisions motivated by fear is flawed, if not dangerous; it will never lead to the healthy, fulfilling lives we crave.” What we can learn about fear should not affect us negatively but should be considered a resource that can and will enhance our productivity and quality of work.

 Positive of Fear

 We will, in our case, concentrate on the young sales person all shaken up during a sales presentation with the fear of the customer rejecting his or her proposal. We are going to look at some factors and

strategies that will not only turn one's fear into more productivity but provide you with high

FEAR OF NO                                                                                                                               

 Confidence and total command of the situation at hand. The sales person will know that every presentation will not always be a closed sale, but he or she will know that they will achieve their fair share as well as the entrepreneur is going to handle most objectives and tasks with confidence and provide a strong presence to the staff.  Let us look at some of the business situations where a strong understanding can provide you with that feeling of confidence and credibility. As we follow Dr. Matt James, he points out several other important factors regarding fear such as “Fear sees only the downside.”

 Conquering fear and the word no is not eazy but it is simple. I will be addressing more on this on my next blog post.