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#predictingsuccess
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I’ll prove to everyone that I’m worth it and that I’m going to work hard for my future until I’m satisfied with the results. I predict a lonely road to success, but I can make it.
Journal Entry 2020
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stag28 · 8 years
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"The best predictor of a club’s success is not who picks the team but the squad’s total wage bill. High wages attract good players. The higher the wage bill, the better the team typically performs. Averaged over 10 seasons, correlation between wage bill and final league position is about 90 per cent[.] [..] if Leicester won thanks to the genius of their manager, Claudio Ranieri, it is odd that his genius did not manifest itself in his previous 30 years in coaching. Managers’ influence has declined further in recent years. Firstly, most managers now get sacked before they can change much: their average tenure in English football has dropped from 3.5 years in 1992 to 1.3 years now. [..] the manager’s role has shrunk. Twenty years ago, they controlled their clubs almost single-handedly. Now the last surviving total manager is Mr Wenger. His rivals at big clubs are better described as “head coaches”. They work with dozens of staffers, ranging from psychologists to data analysts, most of whom will outlast the head coach. [..] The biggest recent advances in football have occurred in two interlinked areas hidden from public scrutiny, typically overseen by specialist staffers rather than the head coach: physical preparation and data analytics. Clubs now monitor each player’s physical state daily and tailor training specifically. The new model player, as displayed at Euro 2016, is a very fast bodybuilder. [..] transfers are increasingly informed by data. [..] nobody has hired Mr Ranieri, whereas his staffers are in demand. Leicester’s scout Ben Wrigglesworth has jumped to Arsenal. Head coaches can help their teams, although probably not through their much-touted motivational skills. Footballers who make it to big clubs have shown they can motivate themselves. Most play for their own careers, not for a manager. Good head coaches have other strengths — for instance, an expertise in communicating ideas to individual players. Mr Guardiola found at his previous club Bayern Munich that his winger Franck Ribéry could not absorb long explanations. By contrast, midfielder Bastian Schweinsteiger could talk tactics for hours. [..] The Premier League is a soap opera that needs compelling characters. Players cannot fulfil that role: most entered high-level football so young and with such complete focus that they have nothing interesting to say, and if they do, their clubs stop them saying it."
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