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junker-town · 7 years

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2021 NBA player rankings, Nos. 80-71: The big Chris Paul debate, plus young breakout candidates

Can the Point God hold up over the next four years? That, plus a bunch of us bet on young guys who haven’t established themselves yet.

Spoiler alert: a couple perennial All-Stars landed in this range in our countdown of the 101 best NBA players in four years. Which ones? The headline gave one away, but read on to find out the other.

Also, a number of us gamble on young players who have shown flashes in their nascent pro careers, but have yet to consistently produce. This is the range to make those kind of projections.

80. Willy Hernangomez

CHRIS GREENBERG: Kristaps Porzingis has been the rising star in New York. But don’t forget about not-so-wee Willy Hernangomez.

The 23-year-old 6’11 big from Madrid was a double-double machine in his debut season with the Knicks last year. Unlike Brandon Ingram and Jaylen Brown, he earned himself a spot on the All-Rookie first team.

Everyone else’s reactions

JOE FLYNN, POSTING AND TOASTING: He'll never be a shot-blocker, but he has the lateral quicks to stay on court on D. He just really, really needs to learn to defend the pick-and-roll.

His bucket-getting skills are already delightful.

MIKE PRADA: Unless the league changes the rules dramatically, there will always be a ceiling for traditional centers who cannot defend.

TOM ZILLER: Spoiler alert: Willy was not joined by little brother Juancho on this list. This might be the first set of brothers in the NBA where I have no idea who is going to be better in the long run. (I was convinced Marcus Morris would be better than Markieff; that was wrong. Marc Gasol is giving Pau a run for his money, too. NBA Brothers, a fascinating topic!)

CHRIS GREENBERG: I’m still waiting for Gerald Wilkins to take his rightful place ahead of Dominique.

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79. Buddy Hield

KRISTIAN WINFIELD: I was surprised Buddy Buckets fell this low. The Kings hope he can be the next Steph Curry. If that prophecy comes true, Hield will be much better than No. 79.

Everyone else’s reactions

TOM ZILLER: If that prophecy comes true, we’ll have much bigger issues to deal with, like a frozen underworld and weekly locust storms.

ZITO MADU: I can see this happening, though I’m sure we will be more worried about other things in that post-apocalyptic world.

TIM CATO: Who you got winning the 2021 Finals, the Warriors or the Apocalypse?

CHRIS GREENBERG: In this apocalyptic timeline, I think Lonzo Ball signs with the Four Horsemen as a RFA en route to the ‘ship.

AKIS YEROCOSTAS, SACTOWN ROYALTY: Buddy might not be a better player than most people on this list, but dammit if he isn't going to be a better scorer than most. Hield projects to be an excellent scorer and shooter in the NBA for a long time.

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78. Kyle Lowry

WHITNEY MEDWORTH: Lowry is already a little old and slow, and I think he’ll still be doing fine when he’s 35 in the NBA. Players are playing longer than ever now! He’ll be aging nicely with DeMar DeRozan in Toronto as best friends with a team that could never quite get it all together.

Everyone else’s reactions

MATT ELLENTUCK: That was such a sad conclusion. I hope you can figure it out, 35-year-old Kyle.

DANIEL REYNOLDS, RAPTORS HQ: I think the drop-off in Lowry's effectiveness is being overinflated and that his actual ranking in four years will be better than we imagine.

TIM CATO: He’ll be Jameer Nelson in four years, a fine backup somewhere on a losing team but far, far away from the top 100.

ZITO MADU:

Told my little brother that Kyle Lowry signed back with the Raptors http://pic.twitter.com/DOx62EMw3U

— Zito (@_Zeets) July 4, 2017

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77. Chris Paul

TIM CATO: Wow. You guys really think Chris Paul still ain’t going to be the most annoying MF-er on the court in four years? Everyone declines with age, and Paul won’t be any exception, especially defensively. But I don’t see his floor vision, absurdly good mid-range game, and general exasperating nature dropping off severely, even at 36.

Everyone else’s reactions

TOM ZILLER: I feel like Chris Paul won’t degrade gradually. One day, he just won’t have it, kind of like Steve Nash.

Of course, CP3 will be 36 in 2021 and Nash kept it going a few years longer, so we’ll see if this pick pays off. But as someone who picked Kobe in the latest edition of this project, I wish you luck.

TIM CATO: Should’ve drafted Kobe again. We all know that 2020 comeback with the Wizards is inevitable.

KOFIE YEBOAH: I love Chris Paul, I really do. It was just hard picking him with his history of getting injured combined with the gradual aging in a position that isn’t kind to older players. I couldn’t pull the trigger even though I want to see him throw lobs until 2050.

TIM CATO: You’re not wrong, but if anyone’s an exception, it’s CP3.

MATT ELLENTUCK: Ziller’s got me, noted Steve Nash fan, in the feels with that first line. Nash always had a history of back problems that led to his decline, though, and I’d like to think Paul won’t suffer the same one-day-you-have-it one-day-you-don’t fate.

MIKE PRADA: Reminder: CP3 has no meniscus in his right knee.

ZITO MADU: He will be retired at that age.

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76. Steven Adams

KOFIE YEBOAH: Steven Adams isn’t going to be a superstar, but he’ll be an important role player to teams in the years to come. He’ll defend, he’ll rebound, and he’ll get you some points for now. He’s already shown how tough he is in a grown man’s league and he’s still in the early stages of his career.

The most important thing is that he’s going to scare the living daylights out of those who drive into the paint. His impact on the court will expand over time and the way he helps out his team will not go unnoticed. Some of it will go beyond the stat sheet, but that’s the Steven Adams way.

Everyone else’s reactions

JOSHUA BROOM, WELCOME TO LOUD CITY: A mature 24-year-old veteran, Adams' physical prime is already intact. While the New Zealand native probably won't add eye-popping quickness or vertical bounce, he may become a savvier version of his current self in four years' time.

Adams could trend a bit higher on this list, but for now, No. 76 is a solid placement.

TOM ZILLER: I’m a little concerned about Adams’ statistical regression under the yoke of MVP Russell Westbrook, especially with Paul George arriving.

TIM CATO: I’m the author of the Steven Adams Encyclopedia, so of course I’ll ride with this pick.

MATT ELLENTUCK: Are we talking about the Steven Adams with the mustache or the one without?

WHITNEY MEDWORTH: He better grow back the mustache if he wants to be on this list at all in 2021.

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75. Rodney Hood

MIKE PRADA: I know Hood’s taken a few detours in his development, but I’m optimistic he puts it all together with Gordon Hayward gone. Would it surprise anyone if Hood is a 20-point scorer at least once in the next four years? It shouldn’t.

Hood’s career arc to date reminds me of Bradley Beal’s, though Beal was younger before his 2016-17 breakout. Both are/were young, sweet-shooting, crafty two guards that looked better with the eye test than on the stat sheet. Both took too many tough long two-pointers and both struggled with nagging injuries.

Then, Beal got a real coach that gave him confidence (and the ball) to ditch the long twos and launch threes and layups. Now he’s one of the NBA’s rising young stars.

I’m confident that Hood can make the same sort of transition now that he doesn’t need to adjust his game to play with Gordon Hayward. If he doesn’t, I’ll die on Rodney Hood Island. There are worse fates.

Everyone else’s reactions

MATT ELLENTUCK: I’m a member of so many islands, but go ahead and save a cabana over on Rodney Hood Island for me. I’ll be there in my off-time from Jake Layman Island.

RICKY O’DONNELL: I’m saying this a major steal. He’s going to have a big year without Hayward around.

MYCHAL LOWMAN, SLC DUNK: We’re less optimistic. While he never turns into the scorer that Gordon Hayward was, we think he’ll still be a capable floor spacer off the bench who can get buckets in a hurry.

TOM ZILLER: I once thought a young Ronnie Brewer would score 20 per game. Alas.

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74. Dejounte Murray

MATT ELLENTUCK: I really love this pick and I’m not sure why.

Murray looks the part of a successful point guard in this league with a tall, lanky frame, and that’s reason enough for me to get excited over what he may become. Subconsciously realizing Gregg Popovich will mold him into something special is what let me take him as a top-75 player four years from now. I’m ready for a Dejounte-Kawhi two-headed beast.

Everyone else’s reactions

J.R. WILCO, POUNDING THE ROCK: This is either too high for Murray, or far too low. If he's on the list in four years, it'll be because he's established himself in the Spurs' rotation. He'll only have done that if he's made good on his extraordinary physical tools.

TOM ZILLER: I stopped liking point guards who look the part when Javaris Crittenton happened.

MIKE PRADA: Gonna go out on a limb and say Murray won’t plead guilty to manslaughter in the next four years.

KRISTIAN WINFIELD: I second that optimism, but I think the Spurs will eventually transition to an All-Star point guard, and I don’t think Dejounte fits the bill.

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73. Marcus Smart

RICKY O’DONNELL: You can count on Marcus Smart’s defense. He also made major strides as a playmaker last season. I’m willing to bet he can break 40 percent shooting from the field one of these years.

Everyone else’s reactions

MATT ELLENTUCK: I still am unsure why so many people are sold on Marcus Smart. I don’t think he does anything great, and his offense is such a liability it’s almost like his team is playing 4-on-5. Metrics don’t love what he does defensively either. Maybe he finds some solutions in improving his shot selection and jumper, but right now this seems too high to me.

TOM ZILLER: Paul Flannery is sold on Marcus Smart, so that’s enough for me. The Celtics picked him over Avery Bradley this summer, so that bodes well too.

KRISTIAN WINFIELD: The Nets want to model Isaiah Whitehead after Marcus Smart. Any time an organization is molding one player after another, you’re doing something right.

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72. Ricky Rubio

JOHN KETCHUM: This one’s pretty obvious. Rubio has skills that fit with a lot of teams. He can pass and handle the ball pretty well, too. If he actually develops a jump shot over the next few years? Man, listen.

Everyone else’s reactions

ZITO MADU: I love Ricky Rubio as much as old people love blaming young people for the world’s problems, but that jump shot isn’t coming.

WHITNEY MEDWORTH: Long-haired Ricky Rubio will lead us all to glory.

A post shared by Ricky Rubio (@ruuufio) on Aug 3, 2017 at 12:04pm PDT

CHRIS GREENBERG: I bought a Rubio jersey back when he was balling for Barcelona. So I’d love for this pick to pan out. I also strongly support the summer Teen Wolf look.

But he’s been playing pro ball basically since he was out of diapers, and I worry about his longevity.

MYCHAL LOWMAN, SLC DUNK: By the time 2021 rolls around, I think Ricky will still be a very capable traditional point guard, but he struggles to find a team that wants to offer him a starting job with the way the position has changed.

TIM CATO: Andre Miller’s best season came when he was 31 years old, the age Rubio will be in 2021. I’m fairly certain Rubio’s best season is in front of us.

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71. Malcolm Brogdon

TOM ZILLER: Brogdon is a very nice shooter and great passer with a strong work ethic and a nice fit alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo. He’ll be 28 in 2021. Unless he gets injured or his rookie season was a total fluke — nothing about it screamed fluke — he’ll be a really solid starter for years to come.

Everyone else’s reactions

KYLE CARR, BREW HOOP: There’s a fear he’ll never improve on his rookie year, but Brogdon will still make the plays teams need when it matters. At this point, I see him becoming the steady veteran that every team needs.

KRISTIAN WINFIELD: I like Brogdon and what he stands for. Not sure he shines alongside Giannis and Thon Maker, and not sure he shines from the pack elsewhere, either.

TIM CATO: The worst Rookie of the Year winner since Woody Sauldsberry in 1958? Here’s a quote from Sauldsberry’s Wikipedia page. (Yes, I definitely Googled “worst NBA rookie of the year” to find this.)

Statistically, Woody Sauldsberry was an extremely poor shooter, having a field goal percentage of just 34.8% for his career. As a result, he has the lowest number of win shares of any player in NBA history, -7.9.

But that’s not a knock on Brogdon, who was solid in an extremely weak field. He should easily end up being a top-15 point guard.

TOM ZILLER: Woody Sauldsberry was a saint!

MATT ELLENTUCK: How the hell was Joel Embiid not Rookie of the Year?

MIKE PRADA: Weird thing about season awards: You kinda need to play a fair chunk of said season to win them.

I like Brogdon and this seems about right.

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INTRO | FULL LIST | TOP 100 OF 2017 | HOW WE DID IN 2013 | SNUBS | 101-91 | 90-81 | 80-71 | 70-61 | 60-51 | 50-41 | 40-31 | 30-21 | 20-11 | 10-1 | THE CASES FOR NO. 1

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