Homelessness in the USA jumped 12% this year to an all-time high, according to a recent US government report. Most groups of color were disproportionately negatively impacted by the trend, families with children saw a 16% increase in homelessness, and certain states saw higher proportions of homelessness than others. The changes come amid a punishing housing market featuring surging rents and stubbornly overpriced for-sale houses.
While rents have begun to decline from recent peaks, and newly built houses have seen a drop in value of almost 20% in some markets, existing houses for resale have barely begun to budge, and wages haven’t kept pace with the increases. The median house price is now so high as effectively to lock out most buyers from the market, and higher interest rates are making mortgages more expensive than at any time in the last fifteen years.
Call it “Bidenomics”? The Democrats, for some reason, already are. (“Nothing will fundamentally change,” indeed.)
If you've been feeling uncertain about the current state of the housing market and are concerned about a potential housing crash, it's important to understand the data and factors that indicate a different scenario. Let's dive into the facts and dispel any fears or misconceptions.
Stricter Lending Standards Ensure Stability
Before the 2008 housing crisis, it was easier to get a home loan with more lenient lending standards. However, today's lending landscape has changed. Mortgage companies have implemented stricter lending criteria, making it harder to qualify for loans.
This shift in standards has reduced the risk of mass defaults and foreclosures, ensuring greater stability in the housing market.
Limited Inventory Supports Price Stability
During the housing crash, there was an oversupply of homes on the market, causing prices to tumble. However, the current housing market has a shortage of available homes for sale. The limited inventory is preventing a repeat of the past crash.
According to data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and the Federal Reserve, there is a significantly lower supply of homes today compared to the peak levels seen during the previous crisis. This scarcity of inventory has supported price stability in the market.
Homeowners' Cautious Approach
Another factor contributing to the market's strength is homeowners' cautious behavior. Unlike in the early 2000s, homeowners today are not tapping into their home equity for non-essential expenses.
Black Knight reports that homeowners have more equity available than ever before, but they are not extensively using it. This responsible approach reduces the risk of foreclosure and distressed properties flooding the market.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the current data and analysis provide reassurance that we are not headed for a housing crash. Stricter lending standards, limited inventory, and homeowners' cautious approach all contribute to a stable housing market.
To gain more insights and expert guidance on navigating the real estate landscape, reach out to KM Realty Group LLC, Chicago's top-rated real estate experts.
Learn more about the current state of the housing market and dispel any remaining fear and uncertainty.
Why are there so few listings? Why is inventory half of what it was in 2019? One reason is 82% of homeowners with a mortgage have an interest rate below 5%. As a result, property owners feel "locked in" to their current home, which is unlikely to change until rates drop.
Whether you are trying to decide if now is a good time to sell or buy a property in SWFL, contact us today for all your real estate needs.
Matt Klinowski | Naples Golf Guy | Downing Frye Realty
Here's to living the good life in paradise, Matt
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You KNOW the economy is in the shitter and the housing market is a full on joke when My Lottery Dream Home goes from mansions to basic bitch houses in lower mid-income neighborhoods. Like, if your "walkability to shops and restaurants" goes from boojie tv chef eateries and designer name only clothiers to Walmart & the White Castle inside the gas station, then you KNOW the economy and housing market are total shit.
Wall Street investment funds have distorted the housing market making home ownership unaffordable to many Americans and driving the sustained increases in rents.
The Economic Implications of America's Housing Shortfall
Amidst the backbone of America's economic vitality, the housing market faces a formidable challenge: a sustained deficit of homes. Despite recent construction upticks, Realtor.com's study underscores the gravity, with up to 7.2 million homes lacking due to a decade-long shortfall relative to population growth [1]. This scarcity not only imperils the dream of homeownership but also casts shadows on broader economic prospects.
The core dilemma lies in the mismatch between household formation and single-family home construction. While 1.7 million new households burgeoned annually between 2012 and 2023, only 10 million single-family housing starts were recorded, culminating in the glaring gap of 7.2 million homes by 2023's close [1]. This deficit rings alarm bells, especially as single-family homes remain the favored housing choice, particularly for families.
The repercussions ripple across various fronts. Firstly, it inflates a sellers' haven, propelling housing prices beyond reach for many, especially first-time buyers. Realtor.com's Chief Economist, Danielle Hale, underscores this predicament, acknowledging the prolonged housing shortage and the time required to bridge the gap [1].
Secondly, the dearth of affordable options compels disproportionate income allocations to rent, stifling savings and investments, thereby curtailing consumer spending—a linchpin of economic vitality.
Thirdly, workforce fluidity suffers. Scarce affordable housing in job-rich locales discourages labor mobility, stifling economic dynamism and innovation.
A Warning Bell: Construction Conundrum
Realtor.com's study lays bare a worrisome trajectory, while a recent New York Post article amplifies concerns [2]. A substantial plunge in single-family new home construction in early 2024 signals a significant market setback [2], further dimming prospects for prompt resolution.
A Glimmer of Hope
Amidst the gloom, there are rays of hope. Increased construction activity, including multi-family units, offers solace. Moreover, the tilt towards affordability in new constructions—more homes under the $400,000 bracket in 2023 compared to 2022—hints at builders heeding the call for accessible options [1].
Charting the Course Ahead
Addressing the housing dearth mandates a multifaceted strategy. Expedited construction via streamlined regulations and permitting processes is imperative. Incentivizing affordable housing development through tax breaks or subsidies can bridge gaps for low- to middle-income earners. Furthermore, championing innovative construction methods and materials can slash costs, fostering homeownership.
In sum, America's housing shortfall poses a formidable economic challenge. The scarcity, particularly of affordable units, stifles homeownership dreams, strains budgets, and curtails workforce mobility. While recent construction trends offer glimmers of optimism, the 2024 construction downturn compounds complexities. A concerted, sustained effort is crucial. By fostering construction, incentivizing affordability, and streamlining bureaucracy, America can forge a housing landscape conducive to economic stability and homeowner aspirations.
References
Realtor.com. (2023, December 14). U.S. Housing Supply Short 7.2M Homes [Press release]. Retrieved from https://www.realtor.com/news/
The New York Post. (2024, April 16). Single-family new-home construction plunges in big setback for housing market. https://nypost.com/2024/04/16/business/single-family-new-home-construction-plunges-in-big-setback-for-housing-market/
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