#granger causality

[ikpress1]

THE NEXUS BETWEEN FINANCIAL DEEPENING AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: ARDL & CAUSALITY APPROACH |  Journal of Economics and Trade

This paper uses principal component analysis to construct financial development indices, Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), and the Granger causality approach to investigate the dynamic causal relationship between financial deepening, economic growth, and four other macroeconomic variables in Nigeria from 1981 to 2014. Our findings are divided into three categories: First, the long- and short-run causal effects of stock market development on economic growth are positively significant, but bank sector development is positively insignificant, indicating the financial intermediary sector's inadequacy in resource mobilisation and allocation in Nigeria. Second, in both the long and short run, our analysis finds no correlation between economic growth and financial development. Third, the macroeconomic causal effect finance-growth variables In the long run, the nexus is found to be unidirectional, implying that crude oil price and government expenditure are the primary drivers of the Nigerian financial sector's long-term development and, as such, are among the underlying factors that determine the amount of economic activity passing through the Nigerian financial sector. The policy proposal is to make the banking sector more accessible in order to improve financial deepening, as well as to foster economic diversification rather than exclusive reliance on oil revenue. Please see the link :- https://www.ikprress.org/index.php/JET/article/view/91

#Financial sector development #ARDL #granger causality #economic growth

[fanfic-lover-girl]

Double Standards: Malfoys vs Weasleys Edition

I'm on a roll, baby! TWO double standards today! All from book 4!

Nepotism/Favoritism

Moody’s magical eye spun around to stare at Ron; Ron looked extremely apprehensive, but after a moment Moody smiled – the first time Harry had seen him do so. ‘You’ll be Arthur Weasley’s son, eh?’ Moody said. ‘Your father got me out of a very tight corner a few days ago …”

. . . my husband, Arthur, has just managed to get prime tickets through his connections at the Department of Magical Games and Sports.

Fudge, who wasn’t listening, said, “Lucius has just given a very generous contribution to St Mungo’s Hospital for Magical Maladies and Injuries, Arthur. He’s here as my guest.”

Bonus from Book 5

Harry distinctly heard the gentle clinking of what sounded like a full pocket of gold. ‘Really, just because you are Dumbledore’s favourite boy, you must not expect the same indulgence from the rest of us … shall we go up to your office, then, Minister?’

What I find most notable here is the difference in nature between the scenarios. The Malfoys' nepotism is more quid pro quo. Charity donations and political bribery. Whereas Authur Weasley seems to have used his position to help people like the Bagmans skirt the law. A government official helps another official's relative with a sketchy situation and in return, he gets expensive, premier seats?! Sounds a bit corrupt to me.

But hardly anyone in HP fandom has an issue with nepotism when the Weasleys do it. Nope, it's only bad when the rich Malfoys do it, duh!

Discrimination

Mum’s writing to the Muggles to ask you to stay. We’re coming for you whether the Muggles like it or not, you can’t miss the World Cup, only Mum and Dad reckon it’s better if we pretend to ask their permission first. Ron, it’s all OK, the Muggles say I can come.

Mr Malfoy’s eyes had returned to Hermione, who went slightly pink, but stared determinedly back at him. Harry knew exactly what was making Mr Malfoy’s lip curl. The Malfoys prided themselves on being pure-bloods; in other words, they considered anyone of Muggle descent, like Hermione, second-class.

Bonus: Weasley hypocrisy

“That’s sick,” Ron muttered, watching the smallest Muggle child, who had begun to spin like a top, sixty feet above the ground, his head flopping limply from side to side. “That is really sick…”

What I found very fascinating is how the discrimination is presented. The Weasleys' disgusting prejudice towards muggles is very casual. It's treated as normal and acceptable: for heaven's sake, Harry (our wonderful hero) even participates in dehumanizing his relatives. I bet most HP readers don't even bat an eye - JKR has trained the reader to accept muggle dehumanization. Yet, what I find strange is that Harry has to literally spell out the Malfoy's distaste for Hermione. Why is JKR wasting her time with this? By book 4, we already know how the Malfoys feel about Hermione. I think it's another indicator of JKR's crappy writing.

Anyway, after we see the appalling way the Weasleys treat the Durselys and the Grangers, JKR expects her readers to swallow Ron acting as a moral compass when he sees the muggle family being tortured? Please.

People need to remember that we are the muggles. Would you prefer the Malfoys who hate all things muggle and mainly want their world to be separate from muggles and keep to themselves (which Draco said way back in book 1 when he met Harry)?? Or would you prefer the Weasleys who have little respect for muggles and have little qualms about invading your home and bodily autonomy?

As a black woman, I prefer a KKK racist who lives far away from me and who I will probably never see in my lifetime. Compared to a white liberal who causally asks me degrading questions every day like why my English is so good when I am from Jamaica. Or anyone else for that matter who makes me feel insecure about my culture and abilities. All under the guise of being a so-called ally.

Truly, between the Malfoys and Weasleys, who has caused muggles more harm on screen or on paper?? I don't know how many people Lucius hurt as a DE besides the poor Roberts family but given JKR treats muggles as NPCs in her books, I guess those rando people Lucius may have killed don't matter :(. And why were muggles there anyway?! At a wizarding event?! That poor Mr. Roberts being treated worse than a dog by people who are supposed to be pro-muggle leaning.

At that moment, a wizard in plus-fours appeared out of thin air next to Mr Roberts’s front door. “Obliviate!” he said sharply, pointing his wand at Mr Roberts. “Been having a lot of trouble with him. Needs a Memory Charm ten times a day to keep him happy.”

Sigh. Muggles deserved better. Forget Draco calling Hermione a mudblood. Like that slur means anything to Hermione anyway. Or has any meaningful impact. Muggles are the true victims in these books.

#double standards #weasley family #malfoy family #weasleys vs malfoys #anti weasleys #lucius malfoy #authur weasley #harry potter series #goblet of fire #nepotism #muggle and muggleborn discrimination #muggles are the true victims of hp #muggles deserved better #anti jkr #ron weasley critical #harry james potter critical

[selfcestmovies]

Hermione Granger was always one for following rules – both the rules set out by the Ministry of Magic, of course, but especially the unbending rules of physics, causality, and time travel. Especially.

But when trapped in an empty library with a malfunctioning time turner and a seemingly exact and perfect duplicate of herself... well, rules seemed to had been broken already at that point. Maybe it was a chance to get to know herself a bit better – what's the worst that could happen?

I'm so excited about this one. Probably the most 'realistic' of a poster so far. What do you think?

#harry potter #hermione granger #selfcest #fake movie poster #wlw #headcanon #hermione fanart #hp fanart #hp #ai art #ai artwork #ai generated #ai image

[compneuropapers]

Interesting Papers for Week 35, 2023

Decoding Trans-Saccadic Prediction Error. Barne, L. C., Giordano, J., Collins, T., & Desantis, A. (2023). Journal of Neuroscience, 43(11), 1933–1939.

A cortical zoom-in operation underlies covert shifts of visual spatial attention. Bartsch, M. V., Merkel, C., Strumpf, H., Schoenfeld, M. A., Tsotsos, J. K., & Hopf, J.-M. (2023). Science Advances, 9(10).

Granger causality analysis for calcium transients in neuronal networks, challenges and improvements. Chen, X., Ginoux, F., Carbo-Tano, M., Mora, T., Walczak, A. M., & Wyart, C. (2023). eLife, 12, e81279.

Computational modeling of human multisensory spatial representation by a neural architecture. Domenici, N., Sanguineti, V., Morerio, P., Campus, C., Del Bue, A., Gori, M., & Murino, V. (2023). PLOS ONE, 18(3), e0280987.

Social signal learning of the waggle dance in honey bees. Dong, S., Lin, T., Nieh, J. C., & Tan, K. (2023). Science, 379(6636), 1015–1018.

Inferior temporal cortex leads prefrontal cortex in response to a violation of a learned sequence. Esmailpour, H., Raman, R., & Vogels, R. (2023). Cerebral Cortex, 33(6), 3124–3141.

Neural learning rules for generating flexible predictions and computing the successor representation. Fang, C., Aronov, D., Abbott, L., & Mackevicius, E. L. (2023). eLife, 12, e80680.

Dopamine error signal to actively cope with lack of expected reward. Ishino, S., Kamada, T., Sarpong, G. A., Kitano, J., Tsukasa, R., Mukohira, H., … Ogawa, M. (2023). Science Advances, 9(10).

Working memory control dynamics follow principles of spatial computing. Lundqvist, M., Brincat, S. L., Rose, J., Warden, M. R., Buschman, T. J., Miller, E. K., & Herman, P. (2023). Nature Communications, 14, 1429.

Variability in training unlocks generalization in visual perceptual learning through invariant representations. Manenti, G. L., Dizaji, A. S., & Schwiedrzik, C. M. (2023). Current Biology, 33(5), 817-826.e3.

Neuronal excitability as a regulator of circuit remodeling. Mayseless, O., Shapira, G., Rachad, E. Y., Fiala, A., & Schuldiner, O. (2023). Current Biology, 33(5), 981-989.e3.

Flexible tool set transport in Goffin’s cockatoos. Osuna-Mascaró, A. J., O’Hara, M., Folkertsma, R., Tebbich, S., Beck, S. R., & Auersperg, A. M. I. (2023). Current Biology, 33(5), 849-857.e4.

Dorsomedial prefrontal hypoexcitability underlies lost empathy in frontotemporal dementia. Phillips, H. L., Dai, H., Choi, S. Y., Jansen-West, K., Zajicek, A. S., Daly, L., … Yao, W.-D. (2023). Neuron, 111(6), 797-806.e6.

Flexible reuse of cortico-hippocampal representations during encoding and recall of naturalistic events. Reagh, Z. M., & Ranganath, C. (2023). Nature Communications, 14, 1279.

Temporal continuity shapes visual responses of macaque face patch neurons. Russ, B. E., Koyano, K. W., Day-Cooney, J., Perwez, N., & Leopold, D. A. (2023). Neuron, 111(6), 903-914.e3.

Dynamic attention signalling in V4: Relation to fast‐spiking/non‐fast‐spiking cell class and population coupling. Sachse, E. M., & Snyder, A. C. (2023). European Journal of Neuroscience, 57(6), 918–939.

A process model account of the role of dopamine in intertemporal choice. Soutschek, A., & Tobler, P. N. (2023). eLife, 12, e83734.

Model-Based Approach Shows ON Pathway Afferents Elicit a Transient Decrease of V1 Responses. St-Amand, D., & Baker, C. L. (2023). Journal of Neuroscience, 43(11), 1920–1932.

The connectome of an insect brain. Winding, M., Pedigo, B. D., Barnes, C. L., Patsolic, H. G., Park, Y., Kazimiers, T., … Zlatic, M. (2023). Science, 379(6636).

Spontaneous recovery of reward memory through active forgetting of extinction memory. Yang, Q., Zhou, J., Wang, L., Hu, W., Zhong, Y., & Li, Q. (2023). Current Biology, 33(5), 838-848.e3.

#neuroscience #science #research #brain science #scientific publications #cognitive science #neurobiology #cognition #psychophysics #neurons #neural computation #neural networks

[justafairytailofinnocence]

Sorry for bothering you with requests 😅 but I genuinely love the way you write so could I request a one shot about fem reader who liked snaps since they were in school together but didn’t approach it because she respected that he loved lily but after years she still held those feelings for him and maybe on a late night they drink and causally confesses like oh yeah I’ve always felt things towards you

Hello dear💖, thanks for your request.

Severus Snape x Reader✨

My old friend🌹

Working at Hogwarts is the best thing that’s happened to me, I get to be surrounded by warm people. I was a professor, a professor for the dark arts, although it’s only temporary after the incident with Lupin they’ve been searching around for a good teacher. I’ll explain during my younger years at Hogwarts I studied hard to try and become an aurora however my skills weren’t on the same level as the smarter witches. My family were well known in the dark arts division, my mother was a strong aurora who knew defensive spells while my father worked at Hogwarts. I was quite a strong witch, Dumbledore even stated “following your family’s path doesn’t mean you have to be great, you’re quite a strong witch on your own y/n and I admire your courage and bravery for such a dangerous life path”.

I wasn’t exactly rich in fact I was rather poor, finding a job with my skill set wasn’t exactly easy. I thought about owning a dark artifacts shop, they often come off as popular, but I want to do more then just sit around and wait for someone to buy something. I wanted to help the wizarding world and defend students from evil people, I met Dumbledore a few years after Hogwarts.

I was sitting in Hogsmeade alone, I had no one to talk to nor even have anyone to pay attention to. An old man sat next to me and asked me “Why hello y/n, it’s been sometime old friend hasn’t it” the glint in his voice sounded familiar. “Professor Dumbledore, Merlin’s beard it’s been years since I’ve seen you, are you grabbing a butterbeer too?” I questioned, Holy jumping crickets I would never expect to find him here. “No dear y/n, I’m afraid that’s not why I came you see, your family has been known to be quite famous in the dark arts” Dumbledore smiled softly, “I’ve seen many talented witches and wizards for my time, but none have come close to you, would you like a job in Hogwarts”.

I nearly spat out my butterbeer, my eyes were full of confusion and yet happiness. Dumbledore softly laughed to himself as he saw my face with a moustache of butterbeer across my lips. “Yes sir, uh Professor Dumbledore sir” I was rather giddy inside, Sweet Dragon pop rocks I’m finally something I’ve wanted to be.

So that’s how I earned my title as a professor, most of my students were rather kind and giving. Well, the Slytherins think I’m Ridiculous, I’ve had quite a handful of comments from Malfoy and his gang although a teacher has a few tricks up her sleeve. I had quite a few fans mostly from the Gryffindors and Ravenclaws, I had met a very famous young wizard indeed, Harry potter. I don’t think I’ve ever met a brighter young wizard in my life, Granger and Weasley on the other hand were certainly a delight. Granger often got all the answers correct and performed her spells at an excellent rate, she is rather fun to talk to. Weasley is quite goofy although he is brave at heart.

The classes were exceptionally hard at times, I wanted to help the students learn something great. In my younger years of Hogwarts, I wanted to be like my father, a Defence against the dark arts professor, although my mind was already set on becoming an aurora for the wizarding world.

I must admit when I was working here, I had no idea Severus would be working here as well, he was a potions teacher and a wicked one at that. I have memories of the small boy sitting in the corner of the class not speaking to anyone. I never really caught up with him as I didn’t want to be a bother but from what Longbottom and potter tell me he seems heinous towards his students. Believe it or not that potions professor used to be the only one I loved; I couldn’t approach him not because I was nervous but there was already a girl he fell deeply infatuated with.

When I heard, he was aiming to become a death eater, I could not bear to see him, they were the people my mother was trying to save us from. Death eaters if your wondering are very terrible, terrible people that support the dark lord. They’ve murdered countless of lives and by merlin they’ve nearly killed me when I was a child. I was lucky enough to have my father there although, it cost his life. My mother fell with grief, and I swore to help students who’s been affected by those terrible wizards.

I had heard the terrible news; the girl Severus knew had passed away. I felt so bad that I could not bear to see him miserable, it was never me anyways, it was always her.

So, if you are wondering where I am right now, I am drinking my old soul away with butterbeer. Hogsmeade is a good place to get away from the stress of teaching. I gulped the last cup for the night, it was Christmas after all, and I often spent it with my mother although tonight it was not the best time. I was lonely, everyone outside had left to go back to their families.

I got up from the chair and bid the bartender goodnight, stepping outside into the freezing air was rather unpleasant. “You’re here” a dull voice spoke from behind “oh Ah! Severus merlin’s beard you scare me”. I couldn’t move, my face went redder as the snow blew “it’s been some time y/n” Severus’s expressions hadn’t even changed, he was still the same stone-cold man many students had feared. “Yeah I, I suppose it has been Sevy” I felt weird saying that but back then that’s what I nicknamed him. Severus grabbed my arm from beneath his cloak and helped me inside “Your freezing y/n, have you been really that stupid enough to forget to that heating potion”.

I couldn’t even think, my nose was running like a cold, wet, dripping tap. “Your absurd y/n, you would’ve ended up catching cold” Severus was rather worried in a weird way, he never really took care of me before. “Don’t pressure yourself Sevy I’m fine” I shivered, he placed me in front of the fireplace “your cold you stupid girl” he complained “but Sevy-”.

“Hush” he firmly ordered, “two butterbeers” he pulled out some knuts and galleons to pay for the drinks. I smiled softly to myself; it was the first time anyone had cared about my safety “Thanks Sevy”. Severus raised an eyebrow and drunk the butterbeer, even I couldn’t understand how he didn’t get a moustache from that. “I do hope your forgetful mind will remember to keep warm during the winter” he raised an eyebrow “S-So how’s classes been Sevy”. Perhaps it was just me but when I knew the man when he was younger, he was so shy he couldn’t speak to anyone and Merlin he was bullied.

I was the one to stand up for him even after the marauders had damaged or harmed him. “Do you remember when we went nearby the black lake and we would eat together” I remember the day like it was no other, the sun was shining, our skin felt the warmth rays touching our faces. I was laying down and he reached for my hand, for the first time I saw Severus smile.

“My Classes are imprudent and yet tolerable if the students behave” he drunk more of the butter beer further continuing on the question I had asked, he answered “Indeed, it seems long ago” he softly muttered. I felt warmer with him, it may have been the fire but the tips of my cheeks and nose were going somewhat red. I had no intention of muttering these very words out, but it seemed like he had moved on and it was an emotional scene. “Severus back at school, back when we were young, I had always admired you, you were the only boy to make my heart pound like a troll beating a rock”.

“I knew you had your own life and friends but to this day I couldn’t stop thinking about you” I was a bit tired and misty eyes, so I thought about the memories we shared. I blame my emotional behind for getting weepy. I was expecting Severus to call me a “dunderhead” or “foolish” but instead what I got was “You’re an exceptionally talented witch y/n, even if you’re a dunderhead at times” he softly admits.

I felt a sensation coming over me, leaning in towards his lips was an interesting experience. I pressed my soft lips against his, it wasn’t at all like snogging. This was my first kiss and when I parted the scent of old leather lingered, Severus stared at me with widened eyes. He stuttered “Y-you care for me after all this time” it was like the little boy he used to be was back.

“Always”.

Anyways that's all I have for now:

Ta Ta✨

Oneshot requests: open

#snape x reader #severus snape x reader #yound snape x reader #severus snape #harry potter x reader #harry potter request #harry potter oneshot #severus snape oneshot #harry potter fanfic #severus snape imagine #hp writing request #severus snape headcanon

[lisystrata]

"The Doppelgänger"

...Severus devoted the rest of the summer to studying the nineteen volumes of messir Gellert's writings that he managed to find. He began reading with the very book he had confiscated from Hermione Granger in her freshman year of study. The book was titled "The Doppelgänger". This was the eighth volume in the general collection, in which the greatest heresiarch of the passing age paid his attention to the phenomenon of the Shadow, which occurs under certain circumstances, such as: splitting of realities, time paradox, multiplication of entities and entering into a closed cycle of a causal chain of events. Potter Jr. was too young to understand this work. In addition, the publication did not store any portraits of Grindelwald. At the same time, the potion master clearly remembered that the boy's thoughts had a very specific, without discrepancies, image of the ancient dark magician. Not wizardgraphic, not picturesque, but the real Gellert Rabble Rouser looked from the semi-darkness with an icy gaze of transparent blue eyes and seemed to read all the vices from your soul and heart…

"Another Harry and a Doppelgänger" Book Three, Chapter Thirty-Five

#severus snape #snape #harry potter fandom #my fanfic #illustration #Harry and doppelganger

[aabenson]

My Proposal

After carefully reviewing the dataset, my interest lies in exploring the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita across different countries. As an individual from a developing nation characterized by a history of slower development, I am particularly intrigued by the factors that distinguish developed nations in terms of their GDP. Hence, I aim to investigate the relationship between essential resources, namely Electricity and Internet Usage, and their influence on GDP. Through this research, I intend to gain insights into the dynamics that contribute to divergent GDP levels among nations.

Code Book

Literature Review

Relationship Between Energy Consumption Per Capita and Gross Domestic Product Per Capita.

Based on a study conducted by (Pallab and AchlaMarathe,2007), it was demonstrated that there exists a unidirectional relationship from Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita to Electricity Consumption, but the reverse relationship is not as evident. This conclusion was drawn based on a case study of Bangladesh, utilizing data on per capita electricity consumption (PCEC) and per capita GDP (PCGDP).

Another study by (Rufael,2006) investigated the long-run and causal relationship between electricity consumption per capita and real GDP per capita in 17 African countries. The findings revealed a long-run relationship between electricity consumption per capita and real GDP per capita in only 9 countries, with Granger causality observed in 12 countries. Among these, 6 countries exhibited a positive unidirectional causality from real GDP per capita to electricity consumption per capita, while an opposite causality was observed in 3 countries. Three countries showed a bi-directional causality. The study employed the cointegration test proposed by (Pesaran et al.,2001).

In a study conducted by (Abbas,2020) in this field, a positive correlation between energy per capita and GDP per capita was identified. The author applied the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) co-integration approach to time-series data from 78 countries. Notably, this study distinguished itself by revealing that in developed countries, the contribution of energy consumption per capita to GDP was higher compared to developing countries.

Furthermore, an additional study focusing on Fiji, an energy-based economy, demonstrated a connection between energy consumption and GDP per capita. The study employed the bounds testing approach to cointegration. It is worth noting that while these studies make claims regarding the relationship between GDP and energy consumption, only a few of them involve a comparative analysis involving multiple countries.

Relationship Between Internet Usage and GDP per capita.

Internet access has emerged as a crucial utility with a profound impact on GDP per capita. The advent of the internet has effectively bridged the gap barrier, enabling businesses and transactions to be conducted regardless of geographical boundaries. Consequently, a nexus is anticipated between Internet Usage and GDP per capita across countries. It is hypothesized that an increase in internet usage will correspond to an elevation in GDP per capita. Existing studies have demonstrated a correlation between Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and GDP per capita.

In a paper by (Shodiev et al., 2021), the researchers aimed to explore and quantify the causal relationship between economic growth and ICT development in emerging economies of Central Asian countries. The study utilized panel data spanning 19 years from 2000 to 2018. The findings revealed that variables such as inflation, trade openness, final consumption expenditure, and unemployment exerted a significant impact on GDP per capita in Central Asian countries. The econometric analysis demonstrated a positive and substantial effect of ICT on GDP per capita: a one percent increase in ICT contributed to a 0.1669 percent and 0.2218 percent increase in GDP per capita. The authors concluded that information and communication technology, in conjunction with economic indicators, plays a pivotal role in the economic development of Central Asian countries.

A similar study aimed at evaluating the effects of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) on economic growth, comparing developing economies to developed ones, challenged the notion of developing countries gaining more from ICT investments and questioning the concept of 'leapfrogging' through ICT (Thomas, 2014).

Hypothesis

Hypothesis: The hypothesis proposed in this study is that countries with reliable electricity services and widespread internet access will exhibit a higher GDP per capita compared to nations with limited internet usage and inconsistent electricity availability. This hypothesis stems from the observation that despite the proliferation of ICT infrastructures in developing countries, the level of development remains low. It is hypothesized that the lack of widespread internet access in these nations hampers their access to relevant opportunities for economic growth facilitated by the internet, which serves as a platform for knowledge dissemination and business transactions. Furthermore, it is acknowledged that internet usage is closely tied to the availability of reliable electricity, as most ICT resources rely on consistent access to electricity for optimal functioning. Thus, the hypothesis posits a positive correlation between a country's citizens having reliable electricity services, internet access, and a higher GDP per ca-pita.

References

Abbas, Z. (2020) ‘Re-assessing the contribution of energy consumption to GDP per- capita: Evidence from developed and developing countries’, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 10(6), pp. 404–410. doi:10.32479/ijeep.9803.

Kumar Narayan, P. and Singh, B. (2007) ‘The electricity consumption and GDP nexus for the Fiji Islands’, Energy Economics, 29(6), pp. 1141–1150. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2006.05.018.

Mozumder, P. and Marathe, A. (2007) ‘Causality relationship between electricity consumption and GDP in Bangladesh’, Energy Policy, 35(1), pp. 395–402. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2005.11.033.

Niebel, T. (2014) ‘ICT and economic growth comparing developing, emerging and developed countries’, SSRN Electronic Journal [Preprint]. doi:10.2139/ssrn.2560771.

Shodiev, Dr.T. (2021) ‘Impact of ICT on economic growth: Case of Central Asian countries’, Revista Gestão Inovação e Tecnologias, 11(3), pp. 1399–1410. doi:10.47059/revistageintec.v11i3.2019.

[science-selected-yura15cbx]

[1handedecon]

FEDS Paper: A Financial Stress Index for a Small Open Economy: The Australian Case

Pedro Gomis-Porqueras, Romina Ruprecht, Xuan Zhou We construct a Financial Stress Index (FSI) for a small open economy, which aims to provide clear and timely signals of financial market strains. This can be used in developing appropriate responses to address these adverse events. To do so, we use the principal component framework and apply it to Australian monthly data on interest rates, spreads, exchange rates, house price growth and inflation expectations. Decomposing the index into foreign and domestic components, we find that the foreign factors can explain more than half (57.4%) of our Australian Financial Stress Index (AFSI). To determine the information content of our index, we run a series of Granger causality tests on several economic and financial observables. We also estimate whether including the AFSI can improve the prediction of the different economic and financial outcomes relative to a specification that uses only its own previous data. We find that including the AFSI improves the forecasts for future retail sales growth and bank credit growth. Finally, we show that financial stress can have non-linear effects on bank credit growth. In particular, an increase in financial stress affects credit growth more adversely if AFSI is high. This result further highlights the importance of an accurate and timely measure of financial stress in an economy for researchers and policy makers. from FRB: Working Papers https://ift.tt/Rd8qjWO via IFTTT

#IFTTT #FRB: Working Papers

[goodaddress]

Correlation does not imply causation

The phrase "correlation does not imply causation" refers to the inability to legitimately deduce a cause-and-effect relationship between two events or variables solely on the basis of an observed association or correlation between them. The idea that "correlation implies causation" is an example of a questionable-cause logical fallacy, in which two events occurring together are taken to have established a cause-and-effect relationship. This fallacy is also known by the Latin phrase cum hoc ergo propter hoc ('with this, therefore because of this'). This differs from the fallacy known as post hoc ergo propter hoc ("after this, therefore because of this"), in which an event following another is seen as a necessary consequence of the former event, and from conflation, the errant merging of two events, ideas, databases, etc., into one.

As with any logical fallacy, identifying that the reasoning behind an argument is flawed does not necessarily imply that the resulting conclusion is false. Statistical methods have been proposed that use correlation as the basis for hypothesis tests for causality, including the Granger causality test and convergent cross mapping.

[cramermccarthy03]

Pathogenesis regarding Keratinocyte Carcinomas along with the Healing Potential of Therapeutic Vegetation as well as Phytochemicals.

In spite of deficiency of immediate cable connections between all over the place subthalamic nuclei (SIN), you'll find clear biological contacts. Through medical study of sufferers using Parkinson's ailment (PD), this specific online connectivity will be milked to enhance warning signs of PD, but each of our understanding of this specific connection is bound. We hypothesized in which movements brings about synchronization involving neurological oscillations inside bilateral STN, and now we implemented stage coherence, a step involving phase-locking between cortical websites inside a thin frequency music group, to signify this synchronization. We examined process specific period synchronization as well as causality in between all over the place STN local industry possibilities (LFPs) registered from both hemispheres together within a cued activity process inside four subjects with PD who experienced Deep Brain Stimulation (DBS) surgery. We all used an information pushed way of establish inter-hemispheric route frames and frequencies with a job specific increase in cycle securing. We discovered substantial cycle sealing in between hemispheres inside alpha dog consistency (8-12 Hertz) in all of the subject matter contingency along with motion involving possibly palm. In all topics, cycle synchronization increased around basic upon or even prior to hand activity oncoming as well as lasted until the motion halted. Nearly everywhere side movements demonstrated related habits. Granger causality (GC) in the phase-locking wavelengths between synchronized electrodes uncovered any unidirectional causality via to certainly remaining Crime regardless of which argument has been transferred. Phase synchronization throughout hemispheres between basal ganglia sustains existence of a bilateral system obtaining lateralized regions of field of expertise regarding engine digesting. Our results suggest this kind of bilateral community read more will be initialized by the unilateral electric motor program. Knowing cycle synchronization throughout all-natural brain functions is critical for you to growth and development of long term DBS systems in which increase objective focused behavior perform.Escherichia coli topoisomerases We and also III can decatenate double-stranded DNA (dsDNA) elements that contains single-stranded Genetic locations or nicks and also take it easy adversely supercoiled Genetic make-up. Even though the protein share the device associated with motion and also have comparable houses, that they be involved in distinct cell phone procedures. Whilst topoisomerase 3 can be a extremely effective decatenase than topoisomerase My spouse and i, the opposite holds true pertaining to Genetic rest. In order to investigate variations the particular device present in prototypical kind IA topoisomerases, all of us examined Genetic decatenation at the single-molecule amount utilizing plaits involving undamaged dsDNA and also nicked dsDNA along with bumps. We all found that not necessary protein decatenates the intact DNA braid. In comparison, both nutrients exhibited strong decatenation task about DNA braids having a pooch. The particular tests show that a principal distinction between the particular un-braiding systems of these topoisomerases is based on your pauses in between decatenation cycles.

[craigbrownphd]

If you did not already know

Horn I introduce a new distributed system for effective training and regularizing of Large-Scale Neural Networks on distributed computing architectures. The experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of flexible model partitioning and parallelization strategies based on neuron-centric computation model, with an implementation of the collective and parallel dropout neural networks training. Experiments are performed on MNIST handwritten digits classification including results. … Iterated Filtering Iterated filtering algorithms are a tool for maximum likelihood inference on partially observed dynamical systems. Stochastic perturbations to the unknown parameters are used to explore the parameter space. Applying sequential Monte Carlo (the particle filter) to this extended model results in the selection of the parameter values that are more consistent with the data. Appropriately constructed procedures, iterating with successively diminished perturbations, converge to the maximum likelihood estimate. Iterated filtering methods have so far been used most extensively to study infectious disease transmission dynamics. Case studies include cholera, Ebola virus, influenza, malaria, HIV, pertussis, poliovirus and measles. Other areas which have been proposed to be suitable for these methods include ecological dynamics and finance. The perturbations to the parameter space play several different roles. Firstly, they smooth out the likelihood surface, enabling the algorithm to overcome small-scale features of the likelihood during early stages of the global search. Secondly, Monte Carlo variation allows the search to escape from local minima. Thirdly, the iterated filtering update uses the perturbed parameter values to construct an approximation to the derivative of the log likelihood even though this quantity is not typically available in closed form. Fourthly, the parameter perturbations help to overcome numerical difficulties that can arise during sequential Monte Carlo. Accelerate iterated filtering … PoPPy PoPPy is a Point Process toolbox based on PyTorch, which achieves flexible designing and efficient learning of point process models. It can be used for interpretable sequential data modeling and analysis, e.g., Granger causality analysis of multi-variate point processes, point process-based simulation and prediction of event sequences. In practice, the key points of point process-based sequential data modeling include: 1) How to design intensity functions to describe the mechanism behind observed data? 2) How to learn the proposed intensity functions from observed data? The goal of PoPPy is providing a user-friendly solution to the key points above and achieving large-scale point process-based sequential data analysis, simulation and prediction. … sigma.js Sigma is a JavaScript library dedicated to graph drawing. It makes easy to publish networks on Web pages, and allows developers to integrate network exploration in rich Web applications. … https://analytixon.com/2022/10/20/if-you-did-not-already-know-1862/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=tumblr

[craigbrownphd-blog-blog]

If you did not already know

Horn I introduce a new distributed system for effective training and regularizing of Large-Scale Neural Networks on distributed computing architectures. The experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of flexible model partitioning and parallelization strategies based on neuron-centric computation model, with an implementation of the collective and parallel dropout neural networks training. Experiments are performed on MNIST handwritten digits classification including results. … Iterated Filtering Iterated filtering algorithms are a tool for maximum likelihood inference on partially observed dynamical systems. Stochastic perturbations to the unknown parameters are used to explore the parameter space. Applying sequential Monte Carlo (the particle filter) to this extended model results in the selection of the parameter values that are more consistent with the data. Appropriately constructed procedures, iterating with successively diminished perturbations, converge to the maximum likelihood estimate. Iterated filtering methods have so far been used most extensively to study infectious disease transmission dynamics. Case studies include cholera, Ebola virus, influenza, malaria, HIV, pertussis, poliovirus and measles. Other areas which have been proposed to be suitable for these methods include ecological dynamics and finance. The perturbations to the parameter space play several different roles. Firstly, they smooth out the likelihood surface, enabling the algorithm to overcome small-scale features of the likelihood during early stages of the global search. Secondly, Monte Carlo variation allows the search to escape from local minima. Thirdly, the iterated filtering update uses the perturbed parameter values to construct an approximation to the derivative of the log likelihood even though this quantity is not typically available in closed form. Fourthly, the parameter perturbations help to overcome numerical difficulties that can arise during sequential Monte Carlo. Accelerate iterated filtering … PoPPy PoPPy is a Point Process toolbox based on PyTorch, which achieves flexible designing and efficient learning of point process models. It can be used for interpretable sequential data modeling and analysis, e.g., Granger causality analysis of multi-variate point processes, point process-based simulation and prediction of event sequences. In practice, the key points of point process-based sequential data modeling include: 1) How to design intensity functions to describe the mechanism behind observed data? 2) How to learn the proposed intensity functions from observed data? The goal of PoPPy is providing a user-friendly solution to the key points above and achieving large-scale point process-based sequential data analysis, simulation and prediction. … sigma.js Sigma is a JavaScript library dedicated to graph drawing. It makes easy to publish networks on Web pages, and allows developers to integrate network exploration in rich Web applications. … https://analytixon.com/2022/10/20/if-you-did-not-already-know-1862/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=tumblr

[doughertypappas]

Breakthroughs throughout effect-based floor water quality evaluation

For several years, the main methods to read the effect of a single section of the nerves after yet another happen to be either to activate or even lesion the beginning and also look into the end result within the second. This post explains a new in essence various approach to identifying causal online connectivity within neuroscience: a focus for the predictability associated with on-going action a single component via which within one more. This method was made achievable by the brand-new method that comes from the particular landmark operate associated with Wiener (1957) and Granger (1969). The actual Wiener-Granger strategy, not like activation along with ablation, doesn't need one on one intervention from the central nervous system. Fairly, it depends on your estimation involving causal stats has a bearing on between together noted sensory occasion sequence information, in both the possible lack of familiar conduct activities or perhaps in the circumstance regarding process performance. Causality in the Wiener Granger impression is based on the actual mathematical of a routine of a single time string which stems from familiarity with more than one other folks. This informative article describes Wiener-Granger Causality, discusses the merits as well as constraints throughout neuroscience, along with outlines latest innovations in the execution. (H) This year Elsevier Corporation. Just about all legal rights set aside.The actual interactions among anionic polyelectrolytes [polyacrylic chemical p, poly(methyl vinyl ether-co-maleic anhydrate)] along with copper mineral ions inside aqueous option (pH 6.3) ended up looked into simply by powerful lighting dropping, UV-visible as well as fourier convert infrared spectroscopic strategies. Viscosity have also been calculated by simply ubbelohde programmed viscometer. Studies suggest how the ratio involving elements, the type in the material ions as well as their enviromentally friendly situations modify the creation of dissolvable along with insoluble Polyelectrolyte-Metal things. These kind of binary buildings have been analyzed within vitro as probable antitumor brokers along with Human Embryonic Renal system 293 cellular material. With regards to the percentage along with collection of mixing of elements in the formation regarding Polyelectrolyte-Copper buildings, it was observed that this the majority of dependable h2o disolveable polycomplexes prepared showed a top antitumor exercise inside the proportion involving d(Cu)(2+)/n(Alcoholics anonymous): 3.Four as well as in(Cu)(2+)/n(MVE-MA): Zero.A few, correspondingly.Membranes made out of glassy polymers have been of curiosity before decade for Carbon dioxide removal from gas streams; even so, highly disolveable gas, for example As well as, can cause "plasticization" of polymer bonded filters, which in turn drastically cuts down on the divorce effectiveness. The project inspects the reaction of varied 6FDA-based polyimides slender film walls along with thicknesses about 200 nm for you to Carbon dioxide exposure along with physical growing older. DABA models are generally integrated to generate crosslinkable web sites with regard to this sort of materials. Presenting DABA products towards the 6FDA-DAM and 6FDA-mPDA polymers generally seems to result in materials even more prone to Carbon dioxide plasticization. A unique energy annealing strategy can be used in order to crosslink the polyimides via decarboxylation of the DABA models; the actual ensuing crosslinked polymers look like much more plasticization resistant in substantial CO2 pressures compared to selleckchem their DABA made up of alternatives just before crosslinking. Preceding cold weather history plays a tremendous position in the your actual physical aging from the slim video membranes and their As well as plasticization resistance designed for chemical houses that tend to lead to large totally free quantity along with leaks in the structure.

#Anti-infection Compound Library #Epigenetic inhibitor #SIS3 #Nicotinamide #Aloxistatin #CA3 #Chaetocin #Pyridostatin #TAPI-1 #GSK2606414 #8-Bromo-cAMP #Pirfenidone #ARV-825 #Nocodazole #BAY 11-7082 #Z-LEHD-FMK #PF-543 #Dacomitinib #GSK'872 #Fingolimod #Z-VAD-FMK #SB431542 #Ferrostatin-1 #Ceralasertib #JQ1

[sciencedomain2022]

Assessment of Level of Market Integration in Indian Cotton Markets

The ongoing review is pointed toward involving co-reconciliation in evaluating the degree of market mix among chosen cotton markets in India. Month to month cotton value information were gathered for the period 2008-09 and 2016-17 from the AGMARKNET site. The high level time series econometric instruments like Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, Johansen co-joining test and Granger Causality test were utilized to concentrate on market reconciliation utilizing E-Views programming. The cost series for cotton in chosen markets were exposed to the results of unit root and were fixed from the startdistinction. The long-run harmony relationship among the cotton markets demonstrated that these business sectors were incorporated with one another. This suggested that costs in Indian cotton markets tend together in light of changes in the interest and supply of cotton. Granger Causality test uncovered that the Salem market was the lead cotton market since it impacted the costs of Kurnool and Warangal cotton markets.

See the Link here: journalajaees.com

#: Cotton market integration #time series econometrics

[deskrubber89]

Otacza On Obszar Najpiękniejszej Części Pirenejów

Dodatek do Dyplomu Potwierdzającego Kwalifikacje Zawodowe “Europass” w języku polskim i angielskim. Ukończenie czteroletniego technikum pozwala uzyskanie dyplomu potwierdzającego kompetencje zawodowe po zdaniu stosownego egzaminu zawodowego, jak i zdobycie matury po zaliczeniu egzaminu maturalnego. Że wtedy sposób ewolucyjnego nowotworu, odpowiedzialnego za taką narośl, jak kultura i cywilizacja? Firma dokłada wszelkich starań, aby oferowane przez nią pomoce istniały na jak najszerszym stopniu. Wszystkie urządzenia z znajomej oferty sprowadzamy z swoich dostawców jak np.: Weldman, FINI, OMI. Cierpimy na jakiekolwiek Twoje pytania. Śmiech, S., Papież, M. (2014). Energy consumption and economic growth in the light of meeting the targets of energy policy in the EU: The bootstrap panel Granger causality approach. Wanat, S., Papież, M., & Śmiech, S., (2014). The conditional dependence structure between precious metals: a copula-GARCH approach. Papież, M., Śmiech, S. 2012. The Analysis of the Mechanisms on the European Steel Market (in:) Pociecha J. (ed) Methods and Models for Analysing and Forecasting Economic Processes.

In M. Papież and S. Śmiech (Eds.), The 11th Professor Aleksander Zelias International Conference on Modelling and Forecasting of Socio-Economic Phenomena. Papież, M., Śmiech, S. 2012. Causality in mean and variance between returns of crude oil and metal prices, agricultural prices and financial market prices in: Ramík, J. and Stavárek, D. (eds.) Proceedings of 30th International Conference Mathematical Methods in Economics. Papież M., Śmiech S. 2011. The Analysis and Forecasting of Coke Prices, Ekonometria. Papież, M., Śmiech S. 2012. Short-term predictions of import prices of steam coal in Poland. Śmiech S., & Papież M. (2013). Fossil fuel prices, exchange rate, stock market: a dynamic causality analysis on the European market. Papież, M., & Śmiech, S. (2013). Economic Growth and Energy Consumption in Post-communist Countries: a Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Analysis. Papież M., Wanat S. (2003), Wykorzystanie funkcji połączeń w ocenie ryzyka w ubezpieczeniach na życie. Papież M., Wanat S. (2003), Wykorzystanie funkcji copula w analizie zależnych ryzyk ubezpieczeniowych w: „Inwestycje ekonomiczne i ubezpieczeniowe - tendencje światowe a rynek Polski”, pod red. Jajuga, K., Ronka-Chmielowiec, W. (red.) Inwestycje finansowe a ubezpieczenia tendencje światowe a rynek polski, Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Finansowego we Wrocławiu 60, 378-385, Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Gospodarczego we Wrocławiu, Wrocław. Jajuga, K., Ronka-Chmielowiec, W. (red.)Inwestycje finansowe i ubezpieczenia tendencje światowe a rynek polski, Prace Naukowe AE we Wrocławiu 1176, 298-307. Wydawnictwo Akademii Ekonomicznej im.

Papież M., Wanat S. (2003), Zastosowanie teorii zbiorów rozmytych w zestawie dobrej prognozy wysokości obraz w: „Inwestycje ekonomiczne oraz ubezpieczeniowe - tendencje światowe a rynek Polski”, pod red. K. Jajuga, W. Ronka-Chmielowiec (red.), Inwestycje finansowe i zabezpieczenia - tendencje światowe a lokalny rynek. Ronka-Chmielowiec W. (red.) Ubezpieczenia w XXI wieku, Prace Naukowe AE we Wrocławiu 1197, 327-335. Wydawnictwo Akademii Dobrej im. Trzaskalik, T. (red.) kartkówka preferencji i ryzyko ’09, Prace Naukowe Akademii Dobrej im. Modelowanie Preferencji i Ryzyko `03” pod red. Śmiech, S., Papież, M., & Fijorek, K. (2017). Volatility spillovers between food, energy, US dollar, and equity markets. Śmiech, S., Papież, M., 2013, Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Central and Eastern European Countries: a Panel Data Analysis in: Löster, T., Pavelka, T., (eds.), Proceedings of 7th International Days of Statistics and Economics. Śmiech, S., Papież, M. 2012. A dynamic analysis of causality between prices on the metals market, in Reiff, M. (eds.) Proceedings of the International Conference Quantitative Methods In Economics (Multiple Criteria Decision Making XVI).

Conference Proceedings. Cracow: Foundation of the Cracow University of Economics, pp. The holiday guru has stepped up to the plate once more to answer your questions. Bruce Springsteen - Born in the U.S.A. Invertebrate fossils under the care of Dymitr Sobolew (for a long time the assistant of Amalitsky) have since that time been in Kharkov (now Ukraine). Dąbrowski, M. A., Papież, M., Śmiech, S. 2013. Monetary exchange rate model for the Central European countries: evidence from a panel approach, in Loster, T., Pavelka, T., (eds.) Proceedings of 7th International Days of Statistics and Economics. Papież M. 2013. CO 2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in the Visegrad Group countries: a panel data analysis, in: Vojáčková, H., (ed.) Proceedings of 31th International Conference Mathematical Methods in Economics. In: IEEE Conference Proceedings, 11th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM14), PDF. 2014. Energy and non-energy commodity prices and the Eurozone macroeconomy: a SVAR approach.

#sprawdzian #kartkowka #rozprawka #wypracowanie #szkola