#china's war against taiwan has already started

[quotesfrommyreading]

In 1949, General Chiang Kai-shek moved his Nationalist Party, the Kuomintang (KMT), to the island and established the Republic of China there. Ever since, the People’s Republic of China has seen Taiwan as its ideological enemy, an irritating reminder that not all Chinese wish to be united under the leadership of the Communist Party.

Sometimes Chinese pressure on Taiwan has been military, involving the issuing of threats or the launching of missiles. But in recent years, China has combined those threats and missiles with other forms of pressure, escalating what the Taiwanese call “cognitive warfare”: not just propaganda but an attempt to create a mindset of surrender. This combined military, economic, political, and information attack should by now be familiar, because we have just watched it play out in Eastern Europe. Before 2014, Russia had hoped to conquer Ukraine without firing a shot, simply by convincing Ukrainians that their state was too corrupt and incompetent to survive. Now it is Beijing that seeks conquest without a full-scale military operation, in this case by convincing the Taiwanese that their democracy is fatally flawed, that their allies will desert them, that there is no such thing as a “Taiwanese” identity.

Taiwanese government officials and civic leaders are well aware that Ukraine is a precedent in a variety of ways. During a recent trip to Taiwan’s capital, Taipei, I was told again and again that the Russian invasion of Ukraine was a harbinger, a warning. Although Taiwan and Ukraine have no geographic, cultural, or historical links, the two countries are now connected by the power of analogy. Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu told me that the Russian invasion of Ukraine makes people in Taiwan and around the world think, “Wow, an authoritarian is initiating a war against a peace-loving country; could there be another one? And when they look around, they see Taiwan.”

But there is another similarity. So powerful were the Russian narratives about Ukraine that many in Europe and America believed them. Russia’s depiction of Ukraine as a divided nation of uncertain loyalties convinced many, prior to February, that Ukrainians would not fight back. Chinese propaganda narratives about Taiwan are also powerful, and Chinese influence on the island is both very real and very divisive. Most people on the island speak Mandarin, the dominant language in the People’s Republic, and many still have ties of family, business, and cultural nostalgia to the mainland, however much they reject the Communist Party. But just as Western observers failed to understand how seriously the Ukrainians were preparing—psychologically as well as militarily—to defend themselves, we haven’t been watching as Taiwan has begun to change too.

Although the Taiwanese are regularly said to be too complacent, too closely connected to the People’s Republic, not all Taiwanese even have any personal links to the mainland. Many descend from families that arrived on the island long before 1949, and speak languages other than Mandarin. More to the point, large numbers of Taiwanese, whatever their background, feel no more nostalgia for mainland China than Ukrainians feel for the Soviet Union. The KMT’s main political opponent, the Democratic Progressive Party, is now the usual political home for those who don’t identify as anything except Taiwanese. But whether they are KMT or DPP supporters (the Taiwanese say “blue” or “green”), whether they participate in angry online debates or energetic rallies, the overwhelming majority now oppose the old “one country, two systems” proposal for reunification. Especially since the repression of the Hong Kong democracy demonstrations, millions of the island’s inhabitants understand that the Chinese war on their society is not something that might happen in the future but is something that is already well under way.

Like the Ukrainians, the Taiwanese now find themselves on the front line of the conflict between democracy and autocracy. They, too, are being forced to invent strategies of resistance. What happens there will eventually happen elsewhere: China’s leaders are already seeking to expand their influence around the world, including inside democracies. The tactics that the Taiwanese are developing to fight Chinese cognitive warfare, economic pressure, and political manipulation will eventually be needed in other countries too.

  —  China’s War Against Taiwan Has Already Started

#anne applebaum #china's war against taiwan has already started #history #current events #military history #politics #taiwanese politics #chinese politics #communism #propaganda #psychological warfare #culture #identity #chinese civil war #china #taiwan #republic of china #hong kong #chiang kai-shek #kuomintang #democratic progressive party

[centrally-unplanned]

VOR: Henry Kissinger

Ugh, HUGELY overrated, Bismark has nothing on him. What, truly are his accomplishments? Oh, rapprochement with China? You mean the country that had just experienced a huge split with the Soviet Union, to the point where they were scared of military conflict, that was simultaneously backing North Vietnam in a war against the US? And so we opened doors to them and gave them literally everything they asked for, hanging Taiwan out to dry, and in return got absolutely nothing; China's aid to North Vietnam actually *increased* the year after? The corpse of a roadkill dog could have done that.

The "cease fire" with North Vietnam? That's just losing with coat of paint to poorly cover the shame! At least he had the self-respect to try to return his Nobel Peace prize. Ho Chi Minh handed him his ass on a platter and somehow that is a win on his ledger.

Accelerating arms sales to the Shah of Iran in order to back separatist fighters in Iraq? Whoops! Wow, that uh, wow what a call there. Really picked the right side.

Coup against Allende in Chile? That went well! Not to mention...he didn't. Chile coup'd Chile, Allende was a complete disaster imploding the country's economy. The Chilean military asked for permission as like a token gesture, we gave them support that didn't matter. Its like taking credit for a sports team win because you bought box seats, except at this game they dropped the opposing team's family out of a helicopter headfirst onto the pitch.

All the SALT treaty stuff started under Johnson, he continued it which is fine but is VORcel stuff. His grand "pivot to Europe" was trying to link trade policy to increases in defense spending from European partners...which didn't happen. They didn't increase them. We gave them trade deals anyway. Its fucking Trump without the memes.

On March 1, 1973, Kissinger stated, "The emigration of Jews from the Soviet Union is not an objective of American foreign policy, and if they put Jews into gas chambers in the Soviet Union, it is not an American concern. Maybe a humanitarian concern.

Awww "I'm such a cool little edgy boy, look at me and my joke about the Holocaust when discussing systemic discrimination against Jews the Soviet Union, surely this will somehow score me Realpolitik points on the Big Board that I can cash in for prize money while shedding America's moral legitimacy because it makes my dick hard."

He is the academic definition of style over substance, snottily walking from fuck-up to disaster to status-quo free ride and putting a pithy quote about The Nature of Power over it to pretend he had any to begin with. Hurry up and die already so I can stop running into you haggling over hostess tips at overpriced Georgetown restaurants.

F-

[submalevolentgrace]

"In much of the media reporting in Australia, the world comprises only three countries – China, Australia and the US – fighting over Taiwan. In a possible conflict scenario in east Asia, the considerations and actions of Japan and South Korea, both US allies, would be much more important than Australia’s. Yet, most often their considerations are missing, or they are assumed to be fully on board with the US, ignoring the domestic debates occurring in these countries.

And of course, other countries in the region, such as Singapore or Indonesia, don’t even get a mention as concerned stakeholders. This is odd seeing that we like to emphasise our geographical location in the Indo-Pacific as the reason that we must do something about China. Yet, the considerations of other countries in the region are absent. This is out of step with the current government’s priorities.

As for Australia, our participation is assumed to be automatic – there is no choice but to join the US. Despite all the rhetoric around sovereignty recently, the analyses tend to treat Australia almost as a vassal state of the US. The interests of the US are taken to be exactly the same as the interests of Australia. Whenever the US goes to war, so must we, no matter the circumstances or the costs. Going to war alongside the US is almost an autonomic reflex for Australia."...

"Ultimately, the media hype on a war scenario has real domestic consequences. It forces Australians to take a binary position even in the absence of war. Australians are expected to treat any links to China with suspicion, as they are assumed to be detrimental to Australia’s interests. This can easily lead to racism, as shown by recent reporting of “Chinese men” taking photos at Avalon airshow or the accusations against Sally Sitou.

While analysts have finally started to talk about the implications for Chinese Australians, they remain an afterthought. Compared with detailed discussions of hypothetical war scenarios, how civil rights can be protected is never addressed, except at most an exhortation that they must be. Among all talks about preparation for a war, preparing the population for a potentially divisive society is not part of it, even though, unlike war, this is already happening."

#auspol #psst its because we are a vassal state

[usafphantom2]

Home Military

Two Turkish A400s have been detained in Ukraine since the Russian invasion

Fernando Valduga By Fernando Valduga 06/25/2022 - 6:00 PM in Military, War Zones

Two Turkish Air Force A400 transport aircraft have been detained in Ukraine for four months. (Photo: Turkish Ministry of National Defense)

As soon as Russia began its invasion operation in Ukraine on February 24, two A400 military transport planes took off one after the other from the Combat Air Force Command in Eskisehir. According to the scenarios prepared by the Ministry of National Defense, its task was to establish an air bridge to transfer Turkish citizens from Ukraine to Turkey.

However, shortly after the planes landed at Kiev's Boryspil airport in the morning, Ukraine closed its airspace against Russian attacks. In addition, ground vehicles were placed on both runways at Borispol airport to avoid landings and takeoffs. The news spread that the mines could have been placed on the tracks. Therefore, like the other planes at the airport at that time, the Turkish A400 planes could not take off and were retained.

A total of 16 aircraft employees have been at the Turkish embassy in Kyiv ever since. With the permission of the Ukrainian authorities, they regularly go to Borispol airport and keep the planes called "Koca Yusuf" in honor of the famous Turkish heavyweight fighter, but the planes cannot be returned.

An intense diplomatic effort is being made through the Minister of National Defense, Hulusi Akar, to return the planes. This is because the problem is military, not political. In other words, the subject of the Akar meetings with Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov for months is not only maritime security for lost mines in the Black Sea and grain transport, which has recently come to light, but also from the beginning, is the safe return of two A400 aircraft to Turkey.

Akar's last meeting with Reznikov on June 6 also did not yield any results. Security sources point out that both Ukraine and Russia are attentive to the safety of aircraft (from Turkey and other countries) held in Borispol. However, this care does not change the situation.

There are two main military reasons why the planes, each worth about 110 million euros, could not be withdrawn from Ukraine.

The first is the risk of mines on the tracks. The problem is not just finding and cleaning mines on the tracks. Ukrainians are worried that the Russians will take advantage of this.

The second is that no one can guarantee that the planes will not be attacked, even if the runways are temporarily released and takeoff is reached. The problem here is not that the Russian or Ukrainian authorities have not made promises to Turkey. The fact that there are many groups of militias fighting on behalf of Ukraine and Russia, and almost all of them have heat-regulated missiles fired by the shoulder. There is also the possibility that each side will use such an attack to hold the other side accountable. Therefore, the negotiations are inconclusive.

Why didn't Turkey start evacuating its citizens before, but waited for the occupation to officially begin? The occupation began in fact when Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on February 21 that he recognizes the provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk as independent of Ukraine and sent Russian troops, which he had already been concentrating in the border regions for months, to these regions. Most Western countries have tried to evacuate their citizens. When the A400s were unable to establish an air bridge, there were problems in the evacuation of Turkish citizens by land and rail over Poland and Romania.

Source: Yetkin Report

Tags: A400M AtlasMilitary AviationTAF - Turkish Air Force / Turkish Air ForceWar Zones - Russia/Ukraine

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Fernando Valduga

Fernando Valduga

Aviation photographer and pilot since 1992, he has participated in several events and air operations, such as Cruzex, AirVenture, Dayton Airshow and FIDAE. He has works published in a specialized aviation magazine in Brazil and abroad. He uses Canon equipment during his photographic work in the world of aviation.

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[simonloweblog]

Preparing for Trump

The results of the Iowa Caucuses brings into sharp focus the fact that in all probability Donald trump will become the GOP party nomination for President in this years’ Presidential election on November 5th. Whereas it remains a possibility that he may be convicted on more than one of the three criminal charges he faces, it is equally possible that he could well become President even if a convicted felon. That indeed would be a historical first in the USA, but so many issues relating to Trump have already been historical “1sts”. He simply defies all norms.

Already governments around the world are rethinking how their relationships to the US will alter if he is elected. There is little doubt that many changes in US policy will be actioned the day he takes office. In terms of Foreign policy, Trump is likely to follow the Monroe Doctrine more closely than any President since Monroe created it in 1823; namely that under Trump’s Presidency  the US  with become very isolationist. The NATO alliance that has been led by the USA and secured the peace since created in 1948 could even see the US withdrawing from it altogether. Hitherto, this has been thought of as a potential disaster for Europe and its security. When President in 2017-2021 Trump made it clear that he expected the Europeans to start paying more for their own security and although some have started to move to do so, only the UK spends the required 2% of GDP that was promised. The fact is that Europe has a population three times greater than Russia and its combined GDP is almost 10 times Russia’s. Current combined E.U. defence expenditure totals 240 billion euros per annum which exceeds Russia’s defence expenditure of 100 billion by 150%! The fact is that Europe needs to organise a joint defence posture that is robust enough to deter Russia’s  ambition under Putin  of recreating a Russian Empire modelled on the USSR.

I believe that Europe (i.e. the EU and the UK) should no longer depend on the US defense umbrella and it is very likely that if Trump is re-elected that will help accelerate that position. This will of course  impact Ukraine’s ability to sustain the war against Russia to regain its territory. It is for Europe to step up to this challenge and step up right now. The extent to which Europe supports the Ukrainian effort will determine Ukraine’s ability to survive.

As to Taiwan, I doubt that all the Saber rattling of the State department would really see the US go to war and risk a potential World War with China even if they invaded Taiwan any time soon. Russia acquiesced in the Cuba crisis by realising that each Superpower had its area of influence which should not be challenged by another. The truth is that Taiwan is in China’s geographic area of influence. I personally doubt that China will invade it; the Chinese project many of their policy initiatives over a 50 or  more years ahead and it may well be that over a sustained period of time and pressure Taiwan will elect a Government that prefers a loose union over an invasion.

Trump will attempt to close the border with Mexico and reduce illegal immigration to a trickle. That is one policy that I agree with him on as do many others. He is not alone in wanting to contain illegal immigration. Almost every nation in Europe and Australasia is grappling with unsustainable levels of immigration.

As to trade, his introduction of high import tariffs against Chinese goods, which have in large measure been retained by the Biden administration, will be further enhanced. He has already stated that he will introduce a general 10% tariff on all imported goods. This will further the trend of protectionism and reduce free world trade that was the basis of  much of the prosperity in  the second half of the 20th Century; but protectionism has been on the rise now for several year and more countries  have woken up to the fact that their dependency on Chinese goods and Russian oil and gas has reduced their own manufacturing capabilities and energy security. In short,  Trumpism will herald a new economic era. As an Internationalist I do not agree with this philosophy but the Populist, Nationalist mood around the world today seems to agree in principle with this sad twist of economic policy.

We know that Trump will avoid war at almost any cost. That is a good thing although it will embolden America’s enemies and result in the US no longer playing policeman to the world and championing democratic processes around the world. But let’s face it the US has not had a good track record since WWll in that domain and the billions upon billions of dollars wasted on wars in Vietnam to Iraq will no longer be exported.

On the Gun issue, Trump’s support of the NRL is well known. They have spent millions supporting his campaigns. The fact is however that neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had any success nor are likely to be able to alter the 2nd Amendment and usher in any form of gun control. That policy is supported by many Americans however hideous it is.

Willy Brandt, one of Germany’s better post world war Chancellors invented the word “Realpolitik”. The above prognosis is a look at the realpolitik of a second Trump Administration. Distasteful as he is to so many, and a narcissist to his core, he is not a blood thirsty dictator craving Empire and is therefore no Hitler or Stalin. Thankfully, so far the Constitution’s system of checks and balances has safeguarded democracy in the Union and I think will continue to do so.

Independent voters may well deny him a second term and the GOP’s position on Abortion has the majority of women set against his Party. It is possible that they, who remain in the majority on the electoral register will save the Biden administration by voting against any further incursions into their rights over their own bodies. If Biden manages to further reduce inflation, keep unemployment down, lower gas prices and mortgage rates then together with the Abortion issue, Biden may just scrape through the election to a second term, but, be prepared for Trump to defy logic and win again.

[calebyap]

Some words for 2024

As we enter into a new year, some approach the year with a sense of foreboding and fear, others with a sense of opportunity and excitement. Still others look at the days to come with a certain coolness of spirit - a disinterest and detachment - that is neither excited nor anxious, because we cannot tell what tomorrow will bring. Truly as James 4 reminds us, we are merely a mist, and we should neither say with certitude that we know what tomorrow will bring, for only He that is eternal, unchanging and enduring can speak of tomorrow with certainty. Still, at risk of presumption, 2024 looks like it will be characterised by at least five things:

First, a measure of fine flour will be sold for a shekel - the turbulence of geopolitics, decoupling and inflation. For most of the last semisesquicentennial after the great World Wars, the world has remained in relative peace with an integrated global order characterised by American dominance and the flourishing of liberal democracy, global trade and interdependence and the unfettered flow of goods and services the world over. Today, that world order has been severely disrupted most significantly as China rises, stumbling, to take its place as a major geopolitical, economic and military power competing strategically with the United States. This competition has spilled over into multiple domains - from trade, capital, proxy states, theatres of conflict, naval access, military technology and sponsorship to digital applications and semiconductor chip manufacturing. So intense has the competition become that markets have begun to “decouple” as the world splits into two playgrounds each with its own Big Brother trying to assemble friends, lackeys and allies. This has driven up global prices and hotted up inflation, which had already been aggravated by the recent pandemic’s impact on global trade. Things will become more expensive. The world will continue to be pulled into different directions. Flashpoint issues - none greater than the issues of Taiwan’s independence - closely watched in the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election, will become intensely hot. Will these two superpowers learn to get along? How will their relationship mold every other bilateral and multilateral relationship in the world? How will it affect the global economy, stock market, your company and your working agenda this year? This question will mark the rest of the century.

Second, the days of wars and rumors of wars. No one expected 2023 to bring us not one but two major conflicts with massive international ramifications. Since 1945 major war on the European continent has been thought unthinkable. Since 1973 major incursions on the modern state of Israel has been thought unthinkable. Both of those assumptions have been upturned, and without prior warning. Putin’s war on Ukraine has not gone as he has hoped, but it would appear that international support for Ukraine is starting to wane. Will the United States be able to continue funding Zolensky’s admirable campaign against the regional superpower or will domestic pressures choke out American funding? In Israel, international support for the Israeli retaliation has already dried up, even though Prime Minister Netanyahu insists that Israel will go it alone for months until all the taken hostages are returned by Hamas. Meanwhile every day that Israel continues its occupation of the Gaza enrages both Muslims and the global community who see the human cost of that war. Iranian-funded Houthis have risen in solidarity and taken up arms in the Red Sea, imperling global trade around the Suez Canal even further. Will this give rise to more intifidas and acts of terror in solidarity? What will be left in Palestine when the dust settles and how will it change the Middle East? In the meantime how much more can our interconnected world endure from rising costs of war in the Middle East? How will these events impact where you live, what you have to give up and what you have to do?

Third, the world pursues misanthropy and assaults the image of God. From the original design in Creation, Man was meant to image and mirror God’s likeness in being male and female as His imagebearers to all Creation. However in sin, we have tarnished that likeness in numerous ways, many of which are now showing up in at least three secular discourses:

The climate crisis facing our world - part of the Genesis narrative is the delegation of man and woman to be vice-regents over the world that God has made. We are to tend life in the garden, image God to the Creation, and receive it as a gift given for our food and nourishment. Yet far from being that one family given stewardship over the garden for good by God, the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COPS28) closed in December 2023 by acknowledging that little progress has been made to steer humanity from the course of reaching its 1.5 degree increase limit. In other words, our way of life continues marching towards the point of destruction as we consume fuels and produce power in a way that makes the outcome inevitable. Will our secular language continue to fall short of humanity’s great sin and failures to steward God’s earth? Will we look for new ways to speak of sin, greed, pride and self-interest - the many ways we have tarnished God’s holy image? Friends, is there also a need to evaluate your own personal relationship to waste and consumption, at home or at work, as we think about our stewardship of God’s earth?

Anxiety over Artificial Intelligence - will the data that powers our collective experience, insight and creativity - a reflection of what we are, powered by cloud and quantum computing show us that the sum of human existence is less than the whole? With the rise of ChatGPT at the tail end of 2022, executives, workers, creatives and are terrified at seeing the leaps and bounds of AI’s potential and the risk that we will lose our jobs. The irony in all of this is that what it means to be human is precisely the question raised if what we have made in our collective “image” is faster, more networked, informed, insightful and intelligent than we are. Is there nothing more to being human than being human if our collective consciousness can do what we do? How has AI caused you anxiety at work last year? How will it change the work for the year to come?

The war over gender and identity- champions of women’s suffrage will claim that the battle for equal rights began much earlier than the 1960s. In 2023 the issue of abortion in the United States has freshly been invigorated by the striking down of Roe v. Wade by the USSC. But in this modern, even post-modern era, the gender wars have long moved beyond what it means to be male and female and to be recognised as such. Today the fight is for the rights of the same-sex attracted, and on to the rights of the gender fluid. Gender identity is not an assigned category as much as it is a way of seeing one’s self. But the waves of the sexual and trans revolution have begun to crash against the hard surface of the shore. In parts of the world where trans rights had been thought enshrined we have seen something of walking back of support for pro-trans positions as in areas of transition treatment or gender-affirming treatment for minors and trans women in women’s sports. How will humanity continue to reject the way that God has made us - male and female - in the days ahead and how will this conflict intensify? What choices will we need to make - especially those of us with children or with interactions with small children - how will we need to speak, model and teach on these issues?

Fourth, we will see more of life in an “Ecclesiastes 12” world. All around the world, we see a “hyperaging” phenomenon, but especially in developing countries like Singapore. Related to our misanthropy (above), falling birthrates and the declining respect for marriage, parenting and the role of the family show how our common humanity is marked by a dislike for other humans. Pet ownership is on the rise whereas parenting is on the decline. Unwittingly this contributes to our hyperageing where there are less babies relative to the aged. In Singapore, one of the advanced and prosperous nations in the world, one out of every four persons will be aged 65 and above by 2030. We will live increasingly in an Ecclesiastes 12 world - a world where we see a growing concern for healthcare, wellness and longevity where the body deteriorates and its related concerns increase. This will impact how we think about our costs, duties, where we live, how we live, our worship, spiritual formation, our relationships, obligations, freedoms and every part of life. How will we prepare for the needs of our seniors in the days ahead? What needs do we need to prepare for as a result?

Fifth, the wheat and tares will continue to grow. Without a doubt, the words of Matthew 13 will come to mark 2024 as we see the continued growth of both the true church of Christ growing like lifegiving nutritious wheat, and the world and its counterfeit of God’s holy church, like tares or weeds, growing alongside the wheat. At times it may even be confusing to distinguish between the two. There may be well-meaning believers who think they are spreading truth but actually propagating error. There may be sexual abusers and those who hurt others lurking in our communities. There may even be unrepentant believers, rejecting church discipline and shepherding, persisting in their wayward pursuit of sin, self and idolatry, living in close proximity to the people of God. Nowhere in the parable are we promised that the wheat grows independently from the growing weeds. But we are assured that both will grow and remain till the end, where they will be a sorting by the Farmer. In what ways will we see the church grow this year? Will it be in missions where the Gospel advances to the nations? Or will it be in the raising up of new leaders, preachers and evangelists for the sake of Christ’s name? Or will there be a harvest of people coming into the gathered feast, reclining at table and enjoying the fellowship of His people? Is there a need for a personal reset as we think about the growth of the wheat and weeds - what needs to change in your life as a result?

In the face of all these likely anticipations, what are God’s people to do as we think and look to the future? Two Scriptures come to mind, which are really one exhortation.

First, hear the words of Deuteronomy 6:6: “these words I command you today shall be on your heart”. Moses will go on to urge his hearers to bind the words of the Torah to the frontlets of their eyes and on their hands, so they can speak of them to family and friends everywhere they go. In other words, to be a people of the Word of God, anchored, rooted and established to the unchanging commands of the living God. While the world around us changes, let us remain steadfast, committed and immovable. To do this, we need a discipline of ever setting God’s Word before our eyes and hands. What we see and what we do must reflect that priority and that concern. To borrow the words of the Wesleys in their Watchnight covenant prayer of committment, we should aim to live according to God’s will guided by God’s Word: “I am no longer my own, but yours. Put me to what you will, place me with whom you will. Put me to doing, put me to suffering. Let me be put to work for you or set aside for you, Praised for you or criticized for you. Let me be full, let me be empty. Let me have all things, let me have nothing. I freely and fully surrender all things to your glory and service. And now, O wonderful and holy God, Creator, Redeemer, and Sustainer,  you are mine, and I am yours. So be it. And the covenant which I have made on earth, Let it also be made in heaven. Amen.”

Second, heeding the words of Jesus in Matthew 7:24–27, build your house on the Rock: “Everyone then who hears these words of mine and does them will be like a wise man who built his house on the rock. And the rain fell, and the floods came, and the winds blew and beat on that house, but it did not fall, because it had been founded on the rock. And everyone who hears these words of mine and does not do them will be like a foolish man who built his house on the sand. And the rain fell, and the floods came, and the winds blew and beat against that house, and it fell, and great was the fall of it.”

If Deut 6 calls us to keep God’s Words in our heart in inner conformity, Matthew 7 calls us to trust and obey God’s Word by living them out in outward conformity. Jesus’ exhortation is clear - wisdom is to hear Jesus and do what He says. That is the equivalent of building your house on the Rock, the true, unchanging and immovable foundation that is stable and safe. When the storms of life land - the storms of geopolitics and macroeconomics, of wars, of cultural and societal revolution and church rise and fall - your foundations will all be revealed. 

Friends, be Bible-built for 2024. Take His Word into your heart and build your life on it. There is no warmer light for your soul and no safer foundation for your house. 

#faith meets life #new year #reflections #bible reading #commentary #current affairs

[quotesfrommyreading]

But the point of these exercises isn’t just to teach people how to shoot a gun or bandage a wound. They are also meant to nurture feelings of community and connection, giving people confidence in advance that, in an emergency, they can count on their fellow citizens. These kinds of preparatory experiences have an especially important impact in Taiwan, a nation whose politics are deeply polarized, with members of the blue and green camps suspecting one another of irresponsibility or unreason, not unlike the red-blue competition in the United States. Wu wants his classes not just to provide particular skills but to help create this intangible feeling of trust. “It’s tough to find activities that make you feel like we’re in this together, especially in an urban environment,” he said. The awareness of a threat can make people scared and isolated. With a bit of organization and some silicone limbs, the threat can pull people together, even people whose politics are very different—or that’s the theory.

In practice, of course, both the Taiwanese activists organizing civil defense and those who are trying to counter Chinese narratives are making a large bet. They are wagering that democracy and transparency can beat autocracy and secrecy, that trust can overcome polarization, that society can organize itself, from the ground up, to overcome fear. They are doing so in a country that is linked to its worst enemy in complicated ways—language, shared history, relatives, investments—and has some understandable anxiety about the reliability of faraway allies.

But their fight against China’s cognitive warfare is not just shadowboxing with bots on the internet. The Russians invaded Ukraine in part because they believed, wrongly, that the Ukrainians would not fight back. If the Chinese assume that the Taiwanese will fight back, then they might think twice. In that sense, there’s a deep connection between the work of the broader world of Taiwanese social activists—those who track Chinese disinformation online as well as those who defend judicial independence, campaign for the rights of Hong Kong citizens and ethnic minorities, promote government transparency—and the work of the military, which has its binoculars trained on the Taiwan Strait. By shoring up democracy, by smoothing polarization, by bringing more people into an active engagement with public life, all of them hope to convince China that an invasion is too costly and risky. Taiwan’s future depends on whether they are right.

  —  China’s War Against Taiwan Has Already Started

#anne applebaum #china's war against taiwan has already started #current events #politics #taiwanese politics #chinese politics #propaganda #psychological warfare #culture #identity #russo-ukrainian war #2022 russian invasion of ukraine #taiwan #china

[newstfionline]

Tuesday, October 10, 2023

The new world order (NYT) Russia has started the largest war in Europe since World War II. China has become more bellicose toward Taiwan. India has embraced a virulent nationalism. Israel has formed the most extreme government in its history. And on Saturday morning, Hamas brazenly attacked Israel, launching thousands of missiles and publicly kidnapping and killing civilians. All these developments are signs that the world may have fallen into a new period of disarray. Countries—and political groups like Hamas—are willing to take big risks, rather than fearing that the consequences would be too dire. The simplest explanation is that the world is in the midst of a transition to a new order that experts describe with the word multipolar. The United States is no longer the dominant power it once was, and no replacement has emerged. As a result, political leaders in many places feel emboldened to assert their own interests, believing the benefits of aggressive action may outweigh the costs. Zheng Yongnian, a Chinese political scientist with ties to the country’s leaders, has similarly described the “old order” as disintegrating. “Countries are brimming with ambition, like tigers eyeing their prey, keen to find every opportunity among the ruins of the old order,” Zheng wrote last year.

Biden faces more criticism about the US-Mexico border (AP) The U.S.-Mexico border has presented political and security challenges for President Joe Biden. Some Democrats across the country are distancing themselves from the White House, and polls indicate widespread frustration with Biden’s handling of immigration and the border. The Department of Homeland Security waived environmental and other reviews to construct new portions of a border wall in South Texas after Biden pledged during the 2020 campaign that he would build “not another foot” of wall. And U.S. officials said they would resume deportations to Venezuela not long after the administration increased protected status for thousands of people from the country. Both moves inflamed conservatives and liberals alike. Many Republicans accused Biden of being too late to adopt former President Donald Trump’s ideas on a border wall, while liberals who oppose additional border restrictions accused the White House of betraying campaign pledges.

Biden administration scrambles to deter wider Mideast conflict (Washington Post) The Biden administration on Sunday scrambled to prevent Hamas’s assault on Israel from escalating into a multi-front, regional conflict, deploying a U.S. aircraft carrier group to the eastern Mediterranean and rushing arms to the Israeli military. Diplomats worked the phones, calling officials across the region to pass messages to Hezbollah telling the group not to attack Israel. Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group and Lebanon’s largest political party, has a history of attacking Israel when Jerusalem is engaged in hostilities with Hamas.

Impeachments and forced removals from office emerge as partisan weapons (AP) Republicans in Wisconsin are threatening to impeach a recently elected state Supreme Court justice and raised the possibility of doing the same to the state’s election director. A Georgia Republican called for impeaching the Fulton County prosecutor who brought racketeering charges against former President Donald Trump. Republicans in the Pennsylvania House have already impeached the top prosecutor in Philadelphia. None of the targets met the bar traditionally set for impeachment—credible allegations of committing a crime while in office. Their offense: staking out positions legislative Republicans didn’t like. As Republicans in Congress begin their impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden, the process is calling attention to the increasing use of impeachment in the states as a partisan political weapon rather than as a step of last resort for officeholders believed to have committed a serious offense. It’s not just impeachment. Over the past two years, Republicans also have sought to pry Democrats and nonpartisan executives from office through recalls, legislative maneuvers and forced removals, even when no allegations of wrongdoing have surfaced.

Drought in Brazil’s Amazon is sharpening fears for the future (AP) Communities dependent on the Amazon rainforest’s waterways are stranded without supply of fuel, food or filtered water. Dozens of river dolphins perished and washed up on shore. And thousands of lifeless fish float on the water’s surface. These are just the first grim visions of extreme drought sweeping across Brazil’s Amazon. The historically low water levels have affected hundreds of thousands of people and wildlife and, with experts predicting the drought could last until early 2024, the problems stand to intensify. Raimundo Silva do Carmo, 67, makes his living as a fisherman, but these days has been struggling to simply find water. Like most rural residents in Brazil’s Amazon, do Carmo typically retrieves water untreated from the biome’s abundant waterways. On Thursday morning, he was making his fourth trip of the day to fill a plastic bucket from a well dug into the cracked bed of Lake Puraquequara, just east of Amazonas state’s capital Manaus. “It’s dreadful work, even more so when the sun is hot,” do Carmo told The Associated Press. “We use the water to drink, to bathe, to cook. Without water, there is no life.”

Strained France-Germany ties (Reuters) The sight of French President Emmanuel Macron and his cabinet drinking beers on a boat with their German counterparts in Hamburg this week will project an image of the enduring Franco-German friendship. But the informal team-building exercise, a German government tradition called “Klausur”, belies a power struggle between the European Union’s two biggest powers and its impact on a raft of EU projects. From joint defence programmes to nuclear energy or relations with China, Paris and Berlin are at odds over a growing number of issues. The rising tension between the capitals reveals not just a spat on technical matters but a break in trust between two governments fighting for major economic interests and different visions of the EU’s future. “I have the impression the governments do not speak with one another about important topics and then when they do, only through the media and sometimes through indiscretions,” said Detlef Seif, a leading German Christian Democratic Union lawmaker on EU affairs.

‘Common Prosperity’ (Bloomberg) Rich people in China are hearing phrases like “common prosperity” getting thrown around a lot these days by the government, and many are trying to get large sums of cash out of the country through intermediaries who can help smuggle it out. Singapore has been a hot destination, but in general individuals are capped at $50,000 per year wired out of the country, so they turn to agencies that oversee large networks of people willing to carry thousands of dollars out of the country.

Evacuations ordered as remnants of Typhoon Koinu hit southern China (AP) People have been moved to shelters and nearly 2,000 boats recalled to port as the remnants of Typhoon Koinu slammed into southern China on Monday after leaving one dead and over 300 injured in Taiwan. The storm bore down on the southern Chinese island province of Hainan on Monday, just south of the financial center of Hong Kong and the key manufacturing regions in the surrounding area on mainland China. The Hong Kong Observatory said on its website that Koinu was weakening from a typhoon into a tropical depression as it moved southwest along the coast of China’s Guangdong province.

Hamas Attack Raises Questions Over an Israeli Intelligence Failure (NYT) The devastating surprise attack by Hamas on Saturday represented an equally stunning intelligence failure by Israel that involved undetected warnings, overwhelmed missile defenses and a slow response by apparently unprepared military forces, former and current U.S. officials said. American officials said Hamas had achieved a complete tactical surprise, reflected in a death toll of at least 700 Israelis. The Palestinian militant group sent hundreds of fighters through breached walls, breaking through with bulldozers and then killing civilians and soldiers in shooting sprees that went on for hours. None of Israel’s intelligence services had specific warning that Hamas was preparing a sophisticated attack that required coordinated land, air and sea strikes, according to an Israeli defense official and American officials. While the attack also surprised many Western intelligence agencies, they do not track Hamas’s activities as closely as Israel or Egypt do. The success astounded American officials with experience in the region. Over the years, Israel has set up a network of electronic intercepts, sensors and human informants throughout Gaza, which is about half the area of New York’s five boroughs.

Retaliatory strikes (Foreign Policy) Israeli forces ordered a “complete siege” of Gaza on Monday in response to Hamas’s ongoing assault on Israel. The siege follows Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s declaration of war on Saturday and will block all electricity, food, water, and fuel deliveries into the Gaza Strip. The territory, which Hamas controls, has already been under a strict blockade for 16 years. The death toll continues to rise on both sides as Israel launches hundreds of counterstrikes against alleged Hamas-linked targets in the Gaza Strip and Israeli forces battle Hamas fighters in Israeli towns near the Gaza border. At least 900 Israelis and more than 680 Palestinians have been killed, including roughly 109 Israelis attending a music festival, and thousands more Israelis and Palestinians have been wounded. An estimated 150 Israelis along with numerous U.S. citizens are also being held hostage by Gazan militants. According to the U.S. State Department on Monday, at least nine Americans were killed by Hamas’s missile strikes. At least three members of Hezbollah were also killed during an Israeli bombardment along the Israel-Lebanon border on Monday. The Israel Defense Forces have mobilized 300,000 reservists to the front lines. More than 20,000 Palestinians have fled their homes to seek safety at United Nations-protected schools deeper inside Gazan territory. Around the world, major leaders have been quick to denounce the violence on both sides. India and Pakistan expressed sadness over the conflict and urged restraint. China called for an immediate cease-fire and reiterated its support for a two-state solution. And the European Union halted all funding for the Palestinian Authority on Monday as well as bolstered protections against antisemitism in Europe.

Clergy burnout (AP) Every morning, the Rev. Karna Moskalik goes through a “grounding” routine that involves prayer, Bible reading, positive affirmations, and meditations about the best outcomes for the day’s tasks, as well as lighting a perfumed candle and walking through each space of her Lutheran church. That level of faith-based self-care is just what many clergy should practice to avoid the burnout and deteriorating mental health symptoms like anxiety and depression that experts say are affecting religious leaders at a worrisome pace. “Mental health needs are just overwhelming faith communities,” said Jamie Aten, a professor at Wheaton College and the co-founder of Spiritual First Aid. Being constantly on call to share other people’s trauma is one of the unique stressors that makes being a pastor so challenging and can lead to burnout symptoms, which some studies estimate affect one third of clergy, said the Rev. Chris Adams, who leads the Mental Health and the Church Initiative at Biola University. “Priests who have a very sound prayer life do well, that’s their primary love relationship,” said Paul Ruff, a licensed psychologist and director of counseling services at Saint Paul Seminary in Minnesota. “Faith leaders have to accept the responsibility to care for yourself, because frankly nobody else is going to do it,” Kay Warren said. “Take control of the controllables and leave the uncontrollable to God.”

#headlines #news

[willww3happen06]

Will WW3 Happen And How To Prevent It

Such a settlement, by which Russia loses some positive aspects however retains others, may leave each a dissatisfied Russia and a dissatisfied Ukraine. In a recent speech Janet Yellen, America’s treasury secretary, instructed that these ought to include climate change and the economic system. Although he's “all for” action on the climate, he doubts it can do much to create confidence or help set up a balance between the two superpowers.

Ban all real estate sales as DeSantis has already accomplished in Florida. When you’re feeding a tiger and it bites your hand off, should you resolve to not kill it, then no less than make it fend for itself and cease feeding it. Michael Sandifer wrote that “…we have huge naval superiority over China…”  IMO this superiority is illusory.

Large-scale apocalyptic occasions like these, brought on by superior expertise used for destruction, could render most of Earth's surface uninhabitable. World War three, also referred to as the Third World War, refers again to the subsequent attainable worldwide army conflict. Iran and the US, plus Russia and India have skilled rising tensions. All the newest information, will ww3 happen predictions and whether or not World War three is coming in 2016 could be found under. The term world struggle is used to explain two earlier major world conflicts within the twentieth Century.

The Warsaw Pact outnumbered NATO all through the Cold War in standard forces, and especially in tanks and armoured autos. Therefore, within the event of a Soviet invasion, in order not to resort to tactical nuclear strikes, NATO forces defending towards a Warsaw Pact armored spearhead must be rapidly resupplied and replaced. You can say that Castro’s regime was strengthened in a way, however actually not in an economic sense nor in a military sense. Meantime, it’s equally clear that free trade has immensely strengthened socialist China both economically and militarily. Numerous struggle games carried out by the united states army & assorted think tanks have shown that a profitable defense of Taiwan in the occasion of an invasion, even with direct U.S. army intervention, is chancy at greatest. I assume that in the RAND corporation’s wargames, China prevailed 9 times out of 10 and is ww3 starting right now.

Take the battle to a worldwide level with a raft of fantastic bonus content to use in World War three.

So given that China would in all probability win a battle over Taiwan, we gotta ask why they’re not doing it? To me, the reply appears to be that the victory wouldn’t be well value the future costs by method of lack of commerce brought on because of being a worse pariah nation than they already are. There are already hot traces in place, however when American generals call, lately, the Chinese refuse to select up. As for making intentions completely clear, 100% certainty is impossible as a outcome of humans like to bluff.

See right now's front and back pages, download the newspaper, order again issues and use the historic Daily Express newspaper archive. Military AI designed to act rapidly to capitalise on advantages “could miss de-escalatory alternatives or operate too fast for human determination makers to intervene and signal their de-escalatory intent”. The US began long-awaited talks to revive Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal in 2022 and will WW3 happen in 2023, three years after Donald Trump pulled out of the agreement. Iran responded to the withdrawal with “a public, step-by-step ramping up of the equipment used to counterpoint uranium – the nuclear gasoline wanted for a bomb”, mentioned NPR. In the identical tackle, at a meeting of the ruling Workers’ Party, he described South Korea as “our undoubted enemy”, which was “hell-bent on an imprudent and dangerous arms build-up”. Senior Conservative MP Tobias Ellwood accused Defence Secretary Ben Wallace of failing to correctly inform the Commons a few Russian “act of war” against an RAF spy plane final September that would have led to a dramatic escalation between Moscow and the West.

The Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) was proposed by U.S. Although he later believed in disarmament treaties slowly blunting the hazard of nuclear weaponry by reducing their number and alert standing, he additionally believed a technological answer might allow incoming ICBMs to be shot down, thus making the US invulnerable to a first strike. However, the USSR saw the SDI idea as a serious risk, since a unilateral deployment of the system would permit the US to launch an enormous first strike on the Soviet Union without any concern of retaliation. The state of affairs was devised before the development of intercontinental ballistic missiles. President John F. Kennedy and his Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara modified the US Nuclear War plan from the 'city killing' countervalue strike plan to a "counterforce" plan (targeted more at military forces).

Players can select between assuming the role of an Attacker or a Defender, and use any gear obtainable to support their playstyle – what issues is the victory. Yes, and the primary aim must be preventing a struggle between the US and China. Preventing a China-Taiwan war is also fairly desirable, but several orders of magnitude much less important. Socialism had extra to do with that than the embargo (indeed, if the protectionist principle of commerce is appropriate, the embargo made Cuba higher off than it will have been otherwise!).

North Korea’s current vows to increase its nuclear stockpile has also increased fears of a global battle. Hours into the New Year, supreme chief Kim Jong Un referred to as for an “exponential increase” in his regime’s nuclear arsenal, in an indication of “deepening animosity” in the path of the US, South Korea and Japan, mentioned The Guardian. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has been described as “more dangerous than anything Europe has seen because the end of World War II”, said Politico.

Now, with Putin because the inheritor of the nuclear arsenal of the USSR, I’m terrified again. I attempt to take some solace within the notion that his instincts for self-preservation overwhelm his megalomania. I additionally attempt to take solace in the notion that the people who must follow his commands for a launch have robust instincts for self-preservation. With China, my feelings are significantly more complicated and fewer fixed. I have absolutely no concern of China starting a nuclear exchange. The juvenile brinksmanship between the U.S. and China appears less necessary the huge co-dependency between our nations.

With the advent of the Cold War in 1945 and with the spread of nuclear weapons expertise to the Soviet Union, the potential of a 3rd global conflict elevated. During the Cold War years, the chance of a third world war was anticipated and deliberate for by army and civil authorities in lots of international locations. Scenarios ranged from standard warfare to limited or total nuclear warfare. At the height of the Cold War, the doctrine of mutually assured destruction (MAD), which decided that an all-out nuclear confrontation would destroy the entire states concerned in the conflict, developed. The potential for the absolute destruction of the human species may have contributed to each American and Soviet leaders avoiding such a scenario.

Mr Kissinger’s way out of this deadlock attracts on his experience in office. He would begin by reducing the temperature, after which steadily construct confidence and a working relationship. Rather than listing all their grievances, the American president would say to his Chinese counterpart, “Mr President, the two best dangers to peace right now are us two. In the sense that we now have the capability to destroy humanity.” China and America, with out formally asserting something, would goal to practise restraint. "Operation Dropshot" was the Nineteen Fifties United States contingency plan for a potential nuclear and standard struggle with the Soviet Union in the Western European and Asian theaters. Although the state of affairs made use of nuclear weapons, they weren't anticipated to play a decisive function.

Of course, this would considerably improve the likelihood that China will conquer Taiwan. Not only would sending weapons not make a lot of a difference, it probably wouldn’t even be an possibility, as a result of there is a good chance China would impose a blockade on Taiwan. But it’s not obvious to me that the US should avoid war with China at all prices. Letting China invade Taiwan means that Taiwan would go from being a democracy to being dominated by an authoritarian state, the US would lose credibility with different Asian allies and China would acquire a strategically important piece of land.

But as fear grows that Iran’s “aggressive expansion” of its nuclear programme “risks triggering a regional war”, leaders are as soon as once more broaching “how to engage” with the nation. As tensions ramp up between the West and its antagonists, proxy wars threaten to become wider armed battle. Analysts at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute have warned that the world is “drifting into some of the dangerous durations in human history”. I imagine the position of US has been clear and has been amplified thousand fold. My problem is not whether US has been in a place to make its place clear, however somewhat has US been in a place to listen to the other side?

During the Cold War period (1947–1991), several military occasions have been described as having come near doubtlessly triggering World War III. NATO operational plans for a Third World War have involved NATO allies who wouldn't have their nuclear weapons, utilizing nuclear weapons provided by the United States as a part of a general NATO war plan, underneath the direction of NATO's Supreme Allied Commander. Such a threat would be dramatically raised if China helps Russia, Volodymyr Zelenskyy told German newspaper Die Welt in February. “If China aligns itself with Russia, there shall be a world warfare and I do think that China is aware of that,” the Ukrainian president said. Contrary to Wallace’s previous characterisation of the incident as relatively benign, leaked US intelligence appeared to counsel that a Russian jet tried to fireplace on a British spy airplane.

These leaders have incorrect beliefs tied to their egos which would possibly be driving us to warfare. It’s weird to oppose the lifting out of poverty of 1.four billion people as a end result of sooner or later that country would possibly become extra militarily highly effective and in addition become an enemy. There is not any way of predicting how economic improvement will influence a country’s politics, however on common richer nations are extra peaceable. Unfortunately, the article doesn’t inform us how to stop a war between the US and China. It does mention the potential of establishing the sort of “hot line” that existed between the US and the Soviet Union, however it’s onerous to see how that might be decisive.

When Mr Kissinger came to Washington, politicians from the 2 events would normally dine together. He was on pleasant phrases with George McGovern, a Democratic presidential candidate. For a national safety adviser from the other facet that would be unlikely at present, he believes. Gerald Ford, who took over after Nixon resigned, was the type of individual whose opponents might rely on him to act decently.

Now we’re in one other Cold War even more dangerous than the final one by many measures. That entails elevated army spending and continued constructing of alliances. The thought being floated about Japan, South Korea, Philippines, and Australia joining a NATO-Plus alliance with full Article V protections is a step in the right direction. A corollary to this strategy — and also you economists will not like this part — is that we’ve obtained to stop going out of our method to assist the Chinese economic system grow, especially when that progress comes at our expense. Let’s force Congress to debate every year whether we should be granting MFN trading standing to an empire that’s received a million men in focus camps for carrying beards.

If we can get the nukes in there, earlier than China has a chance to attempt to stop it, then I don’t see what they will reasonably do about it. That stated, the mere credible menace to soon arm Taiwan with nuclear weapons, together with our other allies within the area, could bring them to the desk to barter a deal to freeze the established order for, say, 50 years, and revisit the question in the future. Supplying arms and intelligence to Taiwan may not be enough deterrent. Taiwan should announce they have nukes (and even have them) at the earliest signs the united states is unwilling to go to war to defend Taiwan.

[tastydregs]

A U.S. arms race with Russia and China could spin out of control

The U.S. suddenly faces a new arms race that could be more dangerous than the Cold War: This time there will be three nuclear superpowers.

The big picture: China is on track to become a nuclear peer with the U.S. and Russia — and Moscow and Beijing have shown signs they could align against Washington.

Chinese President Xi Jinping's apparent determination to close the gap with the Cold War-era nuclear behemoths, and his increasingly close relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, mean the next arms race could be more unpredictable than the last one.

Driving the news: Beijing's arsenal is still a fraction of the size of Moscow's or Washington's, but a new reactor that's expected to come online this year could allow China to accelerate its already rapid build-up, the NYT reports.

China has worked with Russia to prepare the new reactor and claims it's for civilian purposes, but the Pentagon has its doubts, the Times reports. The Chinese embassy in Washington, D.C., did not respond to a request for comment.

China is already on track to roughly quadruple its stockpile of nuclear warheads to around 1,500 by 2035, according to the Pentagon.

Breaking it down: While that's still less than half of what the U.S. and Russia each possess, China is also reportedly building new nuclear silos, mobile missile launchers and more advanced nuclear submarines.

Some experts argue the build-up is largely a response to Washington's own ongoing nuclear modernization — which could cost $2 trillion over 30 years — with Beijing striving to ensure its nuclear capabilities could survive a U.S. first strike. Russia is also developing new nuclear delivery systems.

Putin announced in February that Russia was suspending its participation in New START, the last remaining U.S.-Russia arms control pact. Caps on the size of the countries' arsenals under the treaty expire in three years.

The Trump administration tried to pressure China into three-way arms control talks in 2020, but failed. Arms control itself will likely soon be extinct, at least as it applies to the major powers.

U.S. nuclear policy is based first on deterrence, and then on the idea that if nuclear war can’t be averted, the U.S. must be able to destroy as much of an enemy’s nuclear forces as possible before they can be used against the U.S. or its allies, says Jon Wolfsthal, senior adviser at Global Zero and former senior director on the National Security Council under Barack Obama.

Now, some in the U.S. government and military are arguing the U.S. needs to be equipped to fight Russia and China at the same time, says James Acton, director of the Carnegie Endowment's nuclear policy program.

Acton worries we're entering an almost unstoppable three-way arms race. "At least in the Cold War, we could say, 'Okay, we'll accept parity with the Soviets,'" he says. In a three-way arms race, the U.S. will be unwilling to accept parity with either Russia or China, but neither of them will accept anything other than parity with the U.S.

In reality, Acton believes enough of the Chinese or Russian nuclear program would almost certainly survive a U.S. first strike for either country to inflict "civilization-ending damage" in return. But the fact that the arms race "won't make us safer" doesn't mean it won't happen, he says.

What to watch: The prospect of a major power using nuclear weapons looms larger than at any time in decades, given Putin's nuclear threats in Ukraine.

China still maintains a "no first use" policy and says its nuclear weapons are only for deterrence.

But as Max Boot argues in the Washington Post, it's hardly impossible to envision a scenario in which a conflict with China over Taiwan could go nuclear.

It wasn't until the U.S. and the Soviet Union reached the brink of nuclear war, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, that they began to build guardrails and reduce their stockpiles, Acton notes.

For now, all three countries are heading in the opposite direction.

Editor's note: This story has been corrected to reflect that U.S. nuclear policy is based first on deterrence (not solely on the idea of being able to preemptively destroy an enemy's nuclear forces before they can be used against the U.S.).

[thesheel]

Right after the cold war, it was believed that the era of nationalism would end and that globalization would become even more pervasive. However, some latest events indicate that globalization and not nationalism are in retreat. Why is Globalization Retreating? Globalization is getting a hit for the following reasons: The Russian invasion of Ukraine has urged companies to sanction the country hence disturbing the trade framework of the work. The already strained global supply chain has been worsened with the Russia-Ukraine crisis. China is planning to invade Taiwan and cook up more human rights abuses, thus increasing the threat to globalization. Military conflicts are rising, hence pushing the nations towards more investment in hard power. Russia's Sanctions Killed Globalization Russia is facing global sanctions, due to which the businesses are getting impacted badly in the country. The Russian economy, which is the 11th largest in the world, has thus been in the doldrums. Russia’s oil exports are facing the brunt of the global sanctions at the moment, which is not only surging the global oil prices but also resulting in delayed economic processes in the world. Oil was the largest export of Russia, and currently, the country is seeking alternate markets to export its oil. The whole economy of Europe is heavily dependent on Russian oil, and most of Europe has already promised that they will reduce this dependency in the near future. All of this indicates that globalization would only retreat in the upcoming future, should countries not find a way to usually grow.   China is the new threat to globalization Western sanctions against China for the alleged human rights violations are rising at a time when another slate of sanctions is ready if China invades Taiwan. Recently, during his call with the Chinese President, Joe Biden stated that China should stay away from aiding Russia and intervening in Taiwan. Likewise, the Chinese have fully militarized some of the islands of the disputed South China sea, which points out that the country is up for no good. The economic impact of sanctions in China would even be greater than that of Russia, considering the scale of the Chinese economy is much larger than Russia. China is currently the biggest manufacturing hub of the world, and its retaliation would also impact the global economy brutally. Thus another potential conflict is being cooked up in global politics at the moment, which would make matters worse. Countries are pursuing military might opposing globalization Military conflicts in the world are rising, which is also not a good indicator of globalization. Ranging from the American withdrawal of Afghanistan to a military coup in Myanmar, from civilian unrest in Kyrgyzstan and Ethiopia to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the world is inkling more toward militaristic tendencies. This means that countries are getting ready to go to any length to defy globalization. All of this started under Donald Trump’s watch when he signaled the world that he was adopting his “America first” policy. This made different countries realize that they need to take care of their own needs if they really want to survive in the contemporary era. Although Trump’s doctrine ended, it has surely initiated a domino effect that is breaking the chain of globalized nations.   Final Thoughts The charter of the United Nations addresses people of the world as the “peoples of the United Nations.” Right after it, it mentions that the organization would strive to eliminate the menace of war and human rights abuses. The United Nations was considered as the pinnacle of globalization, but it seems to lose its path. This manifests that the United Nations and hence globalization is surely in retreat.

[financialsmatter]

As China Prepares For War...

Now that Christmas is over, it’s time to get back to looking at the eminent possibilities of WW3 by pointing out how China prepares for war. And some economists think they’re doing it by purposely crashing their real estate market. They want you to think Xi has declared war on housing in China...and that it will accelerate their economic collapse. At the same time, they don’t want you to know that the US is still dependent on China for trade. But if you think for a moment that China is sitting idly by – while the midget/comedian from Ukraine begs for war – then you might be interested in some FTX/Crypto deals to invest in. But we disagree that the United States has the upper hand in an all-out trade war scenario. Why? Beijing can weaponize its U.S. Treasury bonds by dumping them. Huh? According to data from the Treasury Department, China owns just over $900 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds as of October. And that figure is down from over $1.3 Trillion. As China Prepares for War Translation:  They’ve already started dumping our Bonds as part of prepping for war. And China is now buying oil in Yuan. This has huge implications. Why? Cheap energy is an economic floor. And Russia and China have a strategic partnership now. The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) already know that the US can use SWIFT against any of them. And they’ve watched how the US sanctions against Russia (including cutting them off from SWIFT) have failed miserably. As a result, they’re making moves to dethrone the dollar, along with Russia, Iran and all of Central Asia. We’ve been saying that China will invade Taiwan. READ: Numerous Articles On the Imminent WW3 But only after their new currency is created and their new “SWIFT” system to move that money. If the US makes a retaliatory move against China – after the Taiwan conflict – they’ll switch to the new fully convertible currency AND dump their U.S. bonds. This will aid in destroying our economy by crashing the dollar and sending interest rates for US treasuries to the moon. Sadly, the USA needs war NOW, today, not in a few years. And all China has to do is wait, as the EU collapses, inflation drives American citizens into poverty, and the central Eurasian trading bloc emerges. Wealth is moving east. But it won’t all happen overnight. Learn how to profit from this inevitable shift in our January edition of “…In Plain English” (HERE).   And also, what to expect from the oncoming Political Chaos of 2023 (HERE). There' still time to get 50% off our newsletter by entering the code Save 50 at the checkout (HERE). Share this with a friend…especially if they’re clueless about China preparing for war. They’ll thank YOU later. We’re Not Just About Finance. But we use finance to give you hope. ***************************************     Invest with confidence. Sincerely, James Vincent The Reverend of Finance Copyright © 2022 It's Not Just About Finance, LLC, All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you opted in via our website. Read the full article

[productivityhub]

China’s War Against Taiwan Has Already Started

China’s War Against Taiwan Has Already Started

How Beijing tries to make a democracy submit without putting up a fight In 2018, a typhoon stranded thousands of people at Kansai International Airport, near Osaka, Japan. Among them were some tourists from Taiwan. Normally, this story might not have had much political meaning. But a few hours into the incident, an obscure Taiwanese news website began reporting on what it said was the failure of…

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BREAKING WORLD WAR III NEWS: SOME BELIEVE CHINA'S WAR AGAINST TAIWAN HAS ALREADY STARTED: HOW XI AND CHINA ARE TRYING TO MAKE TAIWAN SUBMIT WITHOUT FIRING A SHOT

BREAKING WORLD WAR III NEWS: SOME BELIEVE CHINA’S WAR AGAINST TAIWAN HAS ALREADY STARTED: HOW XI AND CHINA ARE TRYING TO MAKE TAIWAN SUBMIT WITHOUT FIRING A SHOT

  Tyler Comrie / The Atlantic BREAKING WORLD WAR III NEWS: SOME BELIEVE CHINA’S WAR AGAINST TAIWAN HAS ALREADY STARTED: HOW XI AND CHINA ARE TRYING TO MAKE TAIWAN SUBMIT WITHOUT FIRING A SHOT. Daniel Whyte III, president of Gospel Light Society International, who has no side nor stake in this unnecessary war, says, as he has already told President Tsai ten-Wen and the Taiwanese people to humble…

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Monday, August 7, 2023

America is building chip factories. Now to find the workers (Economist) Judged by one metric, America’s new industrial policy is off to a roaring start. Enticed by subsidies, companies are pouring money into semiconductor plants and electric-vehicle factories as never before. With investment in manufacturing facilities running at a record high, President Joe Biden’s claim that the future will again be “made in America” seems more credible than it once did. But the next step in the process is less certain. America is building factories, but can it find the workers to operate them? With the jobless rate near a five-decade low, companies are already struggling to find staff. As scores of new factories come online, the gaps will grow even larger. The semiconductor sector is the most important test case for America’s manufacturing revival. Over the past couple of decades makers of computer chips largely left America. The country still has world-class semiconductor researchers and designers, but has been denuded of a workforce that turns silicon wafers into electronic circuits at scale.

A look at the amount of U.S. spending powering Ukraine’s defense (Washington Post) The United States has committed more than $60 billion in aid to Ukraine since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion. That includes more than $43 billion in military aid. That’s more than the U.S. distributes in aid to any other country. Military aid is only part of America’s commitment to Ukraine. Billions of dollars in economic and humanitarian aid have also been pledged to the country. In total, the U.S. has sent Ukraine $66.2 billion in military, financial and humanitarian aid. The funding includes weapons, training, medical supplies, generators and rebuilding. And experts view the amount as a massive investment in a U.S. ally not seen since at least World War II. “These are off-the-charts numbers,” said Michael O’Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. He likened the figures to U.S. commitments to European countries at the end of World War II. The Marshall Plan, when adjusted for inflation, came to about $150 billion over three years. The funding has eclipsed bilateral support for other U.S. allies, including Israel, Jordan and Egypt, some of the top recipients of U.S. support.

US dispatches warships after China and Russia send naval patrol near Alaska (Guardian) The US dispatched four navy warships as well as a reconnaissance airplane after multiple Chinese and Russian military vessels carried out a joint naval patrol near Alaska last week. The combined naval patrol, which the Wall Street Journal first reported, appeared to be the largest such flotilla to approach US territory, according to experts that spoke to the outlet. “It’s a historical first,” Brent Sadler, a retired Navy captain and senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, told the Journal. He also said the flotilla’s proximity to Alaska was a “highly provocative” maneuver given Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine and political tensions between the US and China over Taiwan. The flotilla has since left.

Europe blinks in its commitment to a great green transition (Washington Post) Europe made big, bold promises to slash carbon emissions to slow global warming, but now the bill is coming due, and governments are starting to blink at the cost—political and economic—needed to power the great transition away from fossil fuels and toward renewables. Once far-off goals are getting more real, as Europe wrestles with how to tell Germans which cars they can drive, Italians which stoves are acceptable, Polish miners why they must abandon coal, and Britons why they can’t keep exploiting their country’s massive oil and gas reserves. Britain and the European Union have pledged to go “net zero” by 2050, with steep cuts by 2030. But across Europe—where this summer has brought brutal heat waves and raging fires in the Mediterranean region—a backlash is simmering against some of the world’s most ambitious green targets.

Russia promises retaliation after Ukrainian drones hit a Russian tanker in 2nd sea attack in a day (AP) Moscow promised retaliation Saturday after Ukrainian drones hit a Russian tanker in the Black Sea near Crimea late Friday, the second sea attack involving drones in one day. Ukraine struck a major Russian port earlier on Friday. Moscow strongly condemned what it sees as a Ukrainian “terrorist attack” on a civilian vessel in the Kerch Strait, said Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova. An official with Ukraine’s Security Service confirmed to The Associated Press that the service was behind the attack on the tanker, which was transporting fuel for Russian forces. A sea drone, filled with 450 kilograms (992 pounds) of TNT, was used for the attack, added the official. As Kyiv’s naval capabilities grow, the Black Sea is becoming an increasingly important battleground in the war.

Bangladesh battles its deadliest dengue fever outbreak on record (Washington Post) Bangladesh’s worst dengue fever outbreak on record has killed more than 300 people this year, overwhelming the country’s vulnerable medical system and prompting calls for a more coordinated response amid a spike in new cases. The mosquito-borne disease has claimed at least 303 lives and infected nearly 63,700 people across the South Asian nation, according to the latest government figures on Saturday, making this the deadliest year since the country started tracking dengue outbreaks in 2000. Most of the deaths were in Dhaka, Bangladesh’s densely populated capital, where hospitals are struggling to accommodate an influx of patients. Raman Velayudhan, who leads the World Health Organization’s program for the control of neglected tropical diseases, said about half the world’s population is now at risk for dengue, as a rapidly changing climate yields warmer and wetter weather that provides ideal breeding conditions for mosquitoes and risks exacerbating the situation.

China floodwater diversions to populated areas unleash wave of online anger (Reuters) Nearly 1 million people in China’s northern Hebei province were relocated after record rains forced authorities to channel water from swollen rivers to some populated areas for storage, sparking anger online over the homes sacrificed to save Beijing. The vast Hai River basin covers an area the size of Poland that includes Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin. Over a span of one week from late July, the region with a population totalling 110 million experienced its most serious flooding in six decades, with Hebei, particularly Baoding prefecture, the worst hit. “Beijing should foot the bill”, wrote a netizen on the popular Chinese microblog Weibo. In other posts on Zhuozhou, netizens said residents weren’t aware they lived in a flood storage area and the rights of the minority had been sacrificed.

Hiroshima marks a-bomb anniversary, calls nuclear deterrence “folly” (Reuters) Japan on Sunday marked the 78th anniversary of the U.S. atomic bombing on Hiroshima, where its mayor urged the abolition of nuclear weapons and called the Group of Seven leaders’ notion of nuclear deterrence a “folly”. The day to commemorate the victims of the world’s first nuclear attack comes as Russia has raised the spectre of using nuclear weapons in its war with Ukraine. It also comes as biopic “Oppenheimer”, chronicling the creation of the atomic bomb, has become a box-office hit in the United States. Some have criticised the film for largely ignoring the weapons’ destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

In Lebanon’s south, on the Israel border, tension stirs fears (Washington Post) Every summer, the Lebanese brace for war. Border skirmishes and rocket exchanges with Israel have become almost commonplace throughout the year. But since the 2006 July War, fears of a serious escalation intensify as the months grow hotter. In Lebanon’s deep south, along its disputed border with Israel, this apprehension is especially sharp. Residents feel they are at the mercy of events beyond their control, including provocations by Hezbollah and clashes inside Israel, fearing they could soon lead to violence in their own backyard. They find stability in the instability, they say, comforting themselves with the belief that a full-blown war is too costly for either side. War “doesn’t leave our minds,” said Ahmed Deeb, the mayor of al-Wazzani, a village of 400 that has seen its population dwindle over the decades after each cross-border conflict. “Because the decision isn’t in our hands.”

Syrian baby born under earthquake rubble turns 6 months, happily surrounded by her adopted family (AP) A baby girl who was born under the rubble of her family home destroyed by the deadly earthquake that hit Turkey and Syria six months ago is in good health, loves her adopted family and likes to smile even to strangers. The dark-haired baby Afraa survived 10 hours under the rubble after the Feb. 6 earthquake crushed to death her parents and four siblings in the northern Syrian town of Jinderis. When she was found, her umbilical cord was still connected to her mother. After spending days at a hospital in north Syria, Afraa was released and handed over to her paternal aunt and her husband, who adopted her and are raising her along with their five daughters and two sons. On Saturday, baby Afraa was enjoying herself, swinging on a red swing hanging from the ceiling while al-Sawadi pushed her back and forth.

A Shrinking Footprint in Africa for France, the Former Colonizer That Stayed (NYT) The country’s president, a trusted ally of France, was taken hostage in the presidential palace by his own guards in late July. Protesters massed at the French Embassy soon after, setting it on fire and shattering windows. A colonel in uniform appeared late Thursday on state television and announced that the military was ending its cooperation with France. The chaos in the West African nation of Niger over the last 10 days was a repeat of earlier turmoil in nearby Burkina Faso and Mali—all three of which are former colonies of France, all struggling to put down violent insurgencies and all taken over by military juntas in recent years. The coups have fanned the flames of popular anger against France, a former colonial power that critics say never really let go of its former possessions. Now, France has become a scapegoat of sorts in a region buckling under the forces of poverty, climate change and surging Islamist militancy. “France did not see this coup coming, so they have not learned from Mali or Burkina Faso,” said Mujtaba Rahman, the managing director for Europe at Eurasia Group, a consultancy. “A clear domino theory for the 21st century.” Nearly half of the countries in Africa were at one time French colonies or protectorates. For decades, France has kept close albeit complicated ties with many former colonies, including a military presence, economic influence and direct access to heads of state.

Pet that dog (NPR) What's four-legged, furry, and often serves up a quick little mood boost? That's right, a dog. It turns out even short, friendly interactions with canines can be good for our health. I started pondering the power of dogs during one of my daily strolls around my neighborhood. Almost invariably, I'll run into at least one person walking their dog. If I get the OK to pet the pooch, it's a joyous moment of cooing and sloppy kisses. I always walk away from these canine exchanges feeling just a bit more relaxed, and happy. And that got me wondering, could these short interactions with other people's dogs actually be good for me? "Absolutely. I think it is safe to say that animals are beneficial to our mental and physical health," says Nancy Gee, a professor of psychiatry and director of the Center for Human-Animal Interaction at Virginia Commonwealth University. Gee says evidence is accumulating that levels of the stress hormone cortisol drop in people after just 5 to 20 minutes spent interacting with dogs—even if it's not their pet. "Also, we see increases in oxytocin, that feel-good kind of bonding hormone," she says.

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MAG: China's War Against Taiwan Has Already Started... MAG: China's War Against Taiwan Has Already Started... (Second column, 6th story, link)