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#and there were 14 companies overall and we were a smaller number because of the age group
astro-inthestars · 2 years
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HEY WHATS UP GUYS IM ALIVE HOLY FUCKING SHIT IM BACK JESUS CHRIST YOU HAVE NO IDEA HOW HAPPY I AM TO BE BACK OH MY GOD I CAN SWEAR AGAIN
MY NOTIFS ARE FUCKING CRAZY HOLY SHIT
#rennikorambles#HOLY MOTHERFUKCING PIECE OF SHIT JESUS CHRIST ON A FUCKING STICK#IM BACK IM BACK I HAVE WIFI AND A SIGNAL AND TIMBLR AND DISCORD OHHHHH#thank GOD im back no pun intended because that was a church trip#but to be fair though. it wasnt as bad as i put it up to be#ignoring all the holy lessons and shit? i.. actually had a lot of fun#we were thrown into groups that were part of companies of numbers 1-14#so i was in company 3 group 3A because there's groups 3A 3B and 3C and every company has these three groups#and there were 14 companies overall and we were a smaller number because of the age group#our age group was 14-15 and the people were older the higher the company number#and your groups shared a room together so my group had 8 people in it and we roomed together for the five days#we were also given companions (thats also a missionary thing) but i thought of it like we were a duo or maybe soulmates like in double life#(cuz im so normal)#and I had a lot of fun with those losers. they were solid. pretty cool#I still did the ''No Friend Challenge'' and for the record I still WON it#i made no new friends those guys are just my 'teammates'#each group had a counselor and each company had an assistant coordinator its pretty cool!#and it was fun ignoring all the preach the god bs! there were pretty good general lessons too and the activites were fun as heck!#i got to sneak my phone in and my group and i enjoyed just playing music and using it as an alarm#overall it wasn't that bad. i didnt get as attached as my brother (he cried several times to my surprise) but i might miss their chaos#but i wont miss those dumbasses for long theyre already spamming my facebook
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Paygo, false consciousness and the IRS
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John Steinbeck diagnosed an important American pathology in 1966 when he called the US a nation of “temporarily embarrassed capitalists” — people who see themselves as the wealthy-in-waiting and therefore fight policies that reduce the power that comes from wealth.
It’s a restatement of Engels’ idea of “false consciousness,” and it’s the result of a deliberate strategy on the part of wealthy people — many of whom believe that they were literally genetically destined to be wealthy — to convince the rest of us that “anyone can succeed.”
Part of the false consciousness program is the money story that goes like this: the US government takes away “taxpayers’ money” from “makers” to fund “programs,” the bulk of which go to the “lazy takers,” who experience the “moral hazard” of subsidized unemployment.
But of course, that’s not how money works. Money originates with the federal government (and its fiscal agents, the banks). In order for the public to have money to pay off its tax liabilities, the government must first spend that money into existence.
The IRS doesn’t take our tax dollars, pile them up, and give them to Congress to spend on programs. When the IRS taxes our money, they annihilate it, removing it from circulation. When Congress spends, new money comes into existence.
The US government can’t run out of money any more than Apple can run out of Itunes gift cards. It can spend too much money — so much that prices go up because too many dollars are chasing too few goods — but it can’t run out of money.
Fed spending is constrained by resources (what’s for sale in dollars) not money (how many dollars there are). If the ratio of dollars to resources gets out of whack, there’s a risk of inflation.
There are many ways to fix this ratio. For example, the government usually issues T-bills (savings bonds) whenever it spends more than it taxes. When you buy a T-bill, you take dollars that might circulate around the economy, chasing goods and labor, and you sequester them.
A T-bill is just a dollar you’re not allowed to spend. In exchange for surrendering the right to spend your dollars for 1, 5, 10 or more years, the government offers you interest, trickling out that money over a long period.
That way the government can buy things today without bidding against your dollars.
But that’s not the only way to fight inflation while spending new money into existence. The other major way is taxation: simply removing money from the economy and annihilating it.
Taxation fights inflation. When the government runs a deficit, that means that it created more money this year via spending than it destroyed via taxes. The “government deficit” is the “public surplus” — the money left in the economy for all of us to spend on stuff.
Likewise, when the government runs a “surplus” that means it taxes more money out of existence than it spends into existence. In a year where the government runs a surplus, it means that the power of the private sector — you and me — to buy stuff has decreased overall.
This is fine if there was too much money to begin with — if inflation was kicking off — but if there’s not enough money in circulation (e.g. if there’s a recession), it just makes things worse…but not for everyone.
When the economy is starved of money, banks go to work creating new money through loans. These loans pay interest (to rich people like bank shareholders and people who securitize and buy debt).
That’s the one-two punch of spending cuts during a downturn:
I. The real economy is starved of the capital it needs to pay workers and make things for workers to buy;
II. The financial economy grows as desperate real-economy firms borrow from banks to keep the lights on.
Despite all their talk of “spending taxpayers’ money,” the wealthy understand how money works. That’s why they were totally indifferent to the running $1t/year deficits created by the Trump tax-cuts (and likewise about the Obama finance bailouts).
Giving money to rich people causes asset-bubbles (driving up the prices of houses), but not inflation (a sustained rise in the price of all goods). That’s because rich people can’t buy enough stuff (fridges, cars, oranges) to drive up prices.
https://pluralistic.net/2021/04/08/howard-dino/#payfors
After you’ve bought three houses and three SubZero fridges and filled them with the beef of three Kobe cows and three cases of Moet, there’s still a LOT left over (even if you’re Jeff Bezos and buy a superyacht with its own, smaller superyacht).
Those leftovers go to socially useless things, like buying houses to turn into rent-generating slums (Wall Street is fast becoming America’s biggest landlord, and single family homes are sold for cash to investment funds instead of families).
And they go to influence campaigns designed to make regular people defend massive cuts to the IRS and opposition to public spending on infrastructure, education, health, and other necessities.
This isn’t just about Republicans. For years, the Democratic leadership has supported “balanced budgets” (spending so little that no new money is left in the economy after all taxes are paid).
The “paygo” rule (which requires all new spending to be matched with cuts or tax-hikes) is religion for the likes of Pelosi and Schumer. That’s why the Democratic caucus is mired in stupid arguments about “how we will pay for the stimulus.”
As bad as the paygo rule is, though, Republicans have made it worse, by demonizing and starving the IRS. Paygo means that the US government operates under the artificial constraint of only spending if it can make cuts or raise taxes.
Raises taxes is really unpopular, for obvious reasons.
Now, raising taxes on the 1% — who have a lot of excess money that’s fueling political corruption and asset bubbles — is one way around this.
Theoretically, taxing the 1% should have a 99% approval rating.
But canny Republicans have figured out how exorcise temporarily embarrassed capitalists about the “unfairness” of taxing their bosses, in part by just flat-out lying about who new taxes would implicate.
But there’s yet another way to satisfy paygo’s artificial constraint, without changing the a single word in the tax-code: simply fund the IRS so that it can collect the trillions that the ultra-wealthy illegally avoid in tax-payments every year.
But this strategy is also a bust. The GOP campaign to destroy the IRS has been too successful.
It’s a longrunning campaign, but it achieved liftoff in 2013 when the Tea Party baselessly accused the IRS of discriminating against conservative groups seeking nonprofit status.
The work-the-ref strategy paid off, providing political cover for deep cuts to the IRS and putting IRS staffers on notice so they green lit every dark money group that applied for nonprofit status, no matter how obviously corrupt they were.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/fallout-from-allegations-of-tea-party-targeting-hamper-irs-oversight-of-nonprofits/2017/12/17/6403c1c0-c59e-11e7-a441-3a768c8586f1_story.html
After the cuts, the IRS grew easier to discredit. Understaffed and under siege, the agency’s behavior grew erratic, then indefensible. There were runaway automated processes that sent out erroneous property-seizure notices that no one could rescind:
https://theintercept.com/2019/01/14/irs-shutdown-federal-government-shut-down-irs-asset-seizures/
Then there was the aftermath of the Equifax breach, where the IRS first told Americans that it didn’t matter because they’d already been doxed by other bad companies:
https://thehill.com/policy/cybersecurity/355862-irs-significant-number-of-equifax-victims-already-had-info-accessed-by
Then came news that the IRS couldn’t cancel Equifax’s no-bid, $7.5m anti-fraud contract because it didn’t have the resources to do its own fraud prevention (Equifax eventually lost the contract because it served malware from its anti-fraud site).
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/equifax-irs-data-breach-malware-discovered/
The rich waged a successful all-out war on the IRS. Take the Global High Wealth unit. For every hour an auditor from GHW worked, they brought in $4500 in taxes the super-rich had dodged. Even by the topsy-turvy logic of “government as a business,” this was good business.
After a concerted harassment and political influence campaign, the GHW abandoned the super-rich and switched to the merely wealthy, bringing in less money and pissing off a lot more people.
The other shoe dropped in 2019, when the IRS admitted it had switched to preferentially auditing poor people because it was too politically and legally fraught to audit rich people, even the most flagrant cheaters.
https://www.propublica.org/article/irs-sorry-but-its-just-easier-and-cheaper-to-audit-the-poor
That was the first year that America’s 400 highest earners paid a lower tax rate than the average American worker:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/10/06/opinion/income-tax-rate-wealthy.html
The IRS’s transformation into a facilitator of illegal wealth retention by the super-rich and petty harassment of the rest of Americans made them very easy to hate.
To that, add the concerted corporate campaigns to use the IRS to rip off workers.
For example, for 20 years, Intuit lobbied the IRS not to make tax-filing automatic, painless and free, ensuring that Americans would continue to pay billions to send data to the IRS that it already had:
https://www.propublica.org/article/inside-turbotax-20-year-fight-to-stop-americans-from-filing-their-taxes-for-free
Reading the IRS’s internal emails from this battle reveals an agency in retreat, where demoralized and ineffectual government employees simply rolled over for one of the greatest ripoffs in American history:
https://www.propublica.org/article/the-irs-tried-to-hide-emails-that-show-tax-industry-influence-over-free-file-program
Intuit wanted to rip us off with taxes. Microsoft, by contrast, just wanted to break the law. Working with KPMG, the convicted monopolist created a “transfer” scheme of breathtaking illegality, using its tax-savings to bankroll its war on the IRS:
https://www.propublica.org/article/the-irs-decided-to-get-tough-against-microsoft-microsoft-got-tougher
Which brings us to today, where Democrats are held hostage to the “payfor” rule and trying to figure out how to mobilize the trillions Biden has pledged for infrastructure, health, and care.
Republicans — pushing the big lie of “taxpayer money” — are dogwhistling hard. Senator John Thune, responding to Biden’s proposal for $80b for the IRS, says any tax enforcement efforts “must strike an appropriate balance between taxpayer responsibilities and taxpayer rights.”
Meanwhile Senator Chuck Grassley takes the nonsensical position that funding the IRS won’t help it do its job (“simply throwing money at a problem doesn’t necessarily yield a solution”).
https://thehill.com/policy/finance/553704-lawmakers-bicker-over-how-to-go-after-tax-cheats
Then there’s Rep Kevin Brady, warning that a fully funded IRS would “unleash tens of thousands of new IRS agents on families, farms and businesses.”
But the Democrats own the paygo rule, not the Republicans, and their leadership have added their own special touch to make funding the IRS impossible.
https://prospect.org/politics/infrastructure-at-a-crossroads-biden-public-investment/
According to the rules Congress gives to the Congressional Budget Office (which calculates the cost of government programs), the CBO isn’t allowed to factor in the projected additional revenue from funding the IRS, only the cost of doing so (!).
Which means that they must factor in the salaries that IRS Global High Wealth auditors will draw — but they are forbidden from counting the $4500/hour they generate when they puncture the tissue-thin financial lies of the super-rich.
The payfor and “taxpayer money” are lies.
It’s a shuck sold to the rubes, not economics. Because it’s a shuck, it doesn’t have to make any sense — and it doesn’t. We shouldn’t run government like a business, but if we must, let’s at least count revenues as well as costs.
Image: Mike Licht/notionscapital.com https://www.flickr.com/photos/notionscapital/48857033957/
CC BY: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/
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whenyouknowyouknow · 4 years
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Harry the Womanizer
 This thing started because I find the whole womanizer image of Harry absolutely disgusting and wanted people to see how utterly bad and wrong it was.
Please be aware that the following does not reflect Harry’s personality but it shows us the image their label wanted him to be seen as.
Some disclaimer about where the data comes from
written, digital coverage (no print,  1-2 videos, no radio)
google search “Harry Styles”, I looked through the first 20 hits each month but didn’t read all of them ( headlines usually are a dead giveaway if an article contains a new “conquest”)
I did not list every woman that was mentioned in the same article as Harry. Also not those that showed interest in him. But most of those that were said he showed interest in (I might have skipped a few in the worst years just bc it was so freaking disgusting)
Often articles contained offhand comments about his pulling power or unrelatedly recounting his latest conquests in any given article to enforce the womanizer image. These did not make it into the list.
Deleted articles are of course not included (as of Aug 2020)
Some of the women turn up again for a round 2 (or 3 or 4), I only mention them once a year tho
I put the women into the list on the date the news coverage happened/started because many articles date back things by saying  “pics have circulated since…” “They have been reportedly seen together since…” or simply tell a story that supposedly happened a few years prior
Some dates overlap. Thats either bc they pushed several woman at once (very effective to drive the whole womanizer image home) or its bc one woman was seeded in while the other was happening.
Because this is a freaking long post, I’ll put it under the “read more”
About the list
split by years
each year has Harrys age for that given year in brackets
each data set has in brackets the age, occupation and date of news coverage for the woman (if available)
winter gf get their own category as they sometimes overlap with other woman
Some of the woman get brought back up (not just mentioned in passing), those are listed at the end of each year with the dates when they where brought back up
“again” is for those who dated him again
Women linked to Harry
2010 (16)
5(?) girls from bootcamp
Cher Loyd (17, txf fellow contestant, Oct)
unnamed girl fan (13.11.)
2011 (17)
Adele (23, singer, 27.09.)
Sarita Borge (record executive, 29.11.)
2011-2012
Caroline Flack (31, txf, 23.10.-27.01.)
2012 (18)
Pixie Geldoff (21, 09.02.)
Alexa Chung (28, model, 16.02)
Alexandra Burke (23, txf, 20.02.)
Jo Wood (56, ex of Ronny Wood 21.02.)
Denise Welch (54, actress, 21.02.)
Georgia May Jagger (20, Mick Jagger daughter, 21.02.)
Sarah-Louise Colivet (24, photographer, 11.04.)
Lily Halpern (19, singer, 11.04.)
Jillian Harris (32, reality TV star, 13.04.)
Emma Ostilly (18, actor for Gotta be You MV -  22.04.) 
Ellis Calcutt (18(?), friend, deniedm, 30.04.)
Emily Atack (22, TV star, 20.05.)
unnamed girl (Article about her one night stand with H, 06.06.)
Lucy Horobin (32, radio presenter, 24.06., dated back to Aug-Oct 2011)
Caggie Dunlop (23, TV star, 12.07.)
Allyssa Reid (19, singer, 23.07.)
Blond girl with pink bag (from a night out, 26.07.)
Cara Delevingne (19, Model, 05.08.)
Natalie Imbruglia (37, singer actress 28.09.)
 2012-13
Taylor Swift (22 singer 19.10.-07.01. (fling dated back to April 2012 then getting back together)
2013 (19)
Hermione Way (27, reality star, 08.01.)
Millie Brady (18, actress, 24.02.)
Shaniece Nesbitt (fan, 11.03.)
Yvette Fielding (44, TV presenter, 11.03.)
Fia Litton (niece of Preston Mahon (security), 14.03)
Chelsea Ferguson (25, stripper, 14.04)
Kimberly Stewart (33, confirmed by Rod, 27.04.)
Camilla Foss (18, fan in oslo, 09.05.)
Kara Rose Marshall (22, model, 03.07.)
Alexis Allen (19, fan, 21.07.)
Cara Delevingne (20, model, 11.09.)
Paige Reifler (17, model, 30.09.)
Sjana Earp (18, model, 25.10.)
Samantha Armytage (36, TV presenter, 27.10.)
Daisy Lowe (24, model, 01.12.)
Caroline Flack (brought back up, 01.02./11.09.)
2013-14
Kendall Jenner (17, model, 21.10. - 23.02)
2014 (20)
mystery brunette (20.01.)
Alison Mosshart (35, singer, 07.03.)
Daisy Lowe (25, model, 11.04.)
Larissa de Macedo Machado (21, brazilian popstar, 08.05.)
Lou Teasdale (30, hairdresser, 26.05.)
Sinitta (45, Smons ex, 22.07.)
Paige Reifler (18, again, model, 25.07.)
Meghan Trainor (20, singer, 27.08.)
blond woman (at Coldplay concert, 18.09.)
Katy Perry (29, singer, 01.10.)
Erin Foster (31, 08.10.)
Kate Moss (40, model, 03.11.)
two blond woman (leaving a club in LA with H, 30.11.)
Taylor Swift (brought back up, 12.02./02.03./20.08./14.10./04.12.)
Emily Atack (brought back up, 23.03.)
Caroline Flack (brought back up, 26.03.)
2014-15
Nadine Leopold (20, model, 20.12.- 12.03.)
2015 (21)
Emma Watson (24, actress, 14.01. dated back to 26.12.14)
Suki Waterhouse (23, actress, 05.04.)
Joy Muggli (23, talent agent, 12.05.)
Sara Sampaio (23, model, 15.06.)
Georgia Fowler (22, model, inspiration for Kiwi, 15.10.)
Nicole Scherzinger (34, singer, 17.10., dated back to 2013)
Taylor Swift (brought back up, 15.01./13.02./10.03./08.05./13.10./28.10.)
Caroline Flack (brought back up, 24.05./11.10.)
2015-16
Kendall Jenner (again, 30.12.- 31.01.)
2016 (22)
Pandora Lennard (28, model 31.01.)
Lindsay Lohan (30, actress, 10.03., dated back unspecified)
Kendall Jenner (again, 05.09.)
Kara Rose Marshall (brought back up, 07.10.)
Suki Waterhouse (again + dated back to 2013, 11.11.)
Taylor Swift (brought back up, 01.02.)
2017 (23)
Tess Ward (26, food blogger, 09.05.)
Townes Adair Jones (20s, 17.05., dated back to 2014)
Camille Rowe (31, model, 31.07.)
Sjana Earp (22, again, 05.12.)
Taylor Swift (brought back up, 18.04./12.05./03.09./09.11.)
Kendall Jenner (brought back up, 31.01.)
2018 (24)
Delta Goodrem (33, voice coach, 27.04.) 
Camille Rowe (ends 31.07.)
Kendall Jenner (brought back up, 15.07./12.12.)
Taylor Swift (brought back up, 21.03./)
2019 (25)
Kiko Mizuhara (28, denied by K, 12.01.)
Camille Rowe (brought back up, 22.11.)
Kendall Jenner (brought back up, 11.12.)
Taylor Swift (brought back up, 23.08./04.11./13.12.)
2020 (26)
Daisy Lowe (brought back up, 20.06.)
Taylor Swift (brought back up, 02.03./24.07.)
data from here on is not included in the graphs, I will keep adding when things happen
Tracee Ellis Ross (48, actress, 28.10.)
The age differences
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The graph shows clearly how
the age gaps are very big in the beginning, likely to attract an older audience in addition to the usual target audience of teenage girls
the amount of woman linked to Harry gets smaller each year because in later years, articles could just reference his history with woman
the amount of woman linked and mentioned in regards to Harry gets significantly lower after hiatus started
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A rough timeline of women that where connected to Harry over the years
Why give Harry the womanizer image?
Would the image of a womanizer not damage the image of 1D?
If they’d portrait him as a sleeze it would have surely damaged the overal image of 1D. But Harrys image portrait him as charming, a bit quirky and overall an airhead that likes people and doesn’t want to be tied down. Thus giving the illusion of being potentially available to every woman and showing them a good, no strings attached, time. Which is a massive selling point for boybands to increase the age range of their fans.
In addition, all his conquests would be used to stir up drama or simply generate attention at crucial times to get 1D in the press without mentioning their current promo focus in every headline.
The winter girlfriends had a special role as they were the only ones actively worked as continuous dating. To build some attachment, have a continuous storyline that could be tied to the just released album and bridge the holiday pause, and when the relationship ended generate more drama to be used for promo.
Harry did keep on using his womanizer image to promote both his solo albums but in a very controlled manner. The numbers of new woman linked to him declined to 1 in 2019, for now we are at 0 (1) in 2020
HS promo used 3 woman as inspirations for songs (Towns, Fowler, Swift) and a tour gf (Rowe)
FL promo only uses the previous tour gf as now ex to push the storyline of a breakup album
He is very visibly changing his image while still maintaining a level of connection to his old image. Whether that's due to contractual restrictions or a strategy to not alienate to many fans is unclear
Jeff Azoff
For what I’ve seen Jeff and Harry seem close (the Azoff family having him on family pictures, posted by Jeff’s brother)
Looking at the timeline of Jeff and Harry
2014-03-25 first mention of Harry at Azoff family home in an article about Irvin
2014-04-23 first pics of Harry and Jeff at a sports event (Jeff named as a friend, no name or position yet)
2014-12-22 Jeff not named yet but identified as his agent
2015-01-10 first time Jeff being named and being the link between Harry and a woman
2016-03-07 Jeff leaves CAA as a music agent and launches his own company Full Stop Management
2016-03-11 Harry confirmed to have joined Full Stop Management
Jeff likely took over as Harry’s agent in early 2014. In 2015 Harry’s image change starts to become aparent and changed drastically after hiatus.
Harry choosing Jeffs management firm as soon as he left Modest is a clear indication that he feels Jeff will represent him how he wants
The Timeline - Women connected to Harry and Promo
I started the visual timeline in end 2011 when his womanizer image started to take off
The instances before where likely used as seeding for this image (first instance was a segment in txf where he was linked to 5 of the girl contestants and funny enough one older guy)
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purple - women from the entertainment industry
pink - fans/no-names
lilac - winter gf
dark burgundy - thos who date him again
dusky pink - brought back up
light blue - single release
royal blue - album release
mid blue - other releases
dark turquoise - tour legs
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Adendum: a few numbers analyzed,
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shannygoatgruff · 4 years
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My Brother’s Keeper - Chapter VI
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Genre: Psychological Thriller
Characters: Modern Ivar X Modern Hvitserk
Rating: MA 18+
Overall Warning:  Dark story told from an emotionally distributed person’s POV with graphic and sadistic material including rape, terror, torture, kidnapping, drug use, slash, implied incest, necrophilia, and insecurity. Heavy trigger warnings.  
Chapter Warning: Implications of incest
Summary: Mama always said to be their brothers’ keeper. Now there is absolutely nothing these two won’t do for each other.  Boys will be boys…
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Chapter VI
Today is one of those days where the weather forgot that it's supposed to be Fall.  It’s so humid in here it’s making the air feel like there’s a blanket over my nose.  I’m sure all the dust and mold in this place isn’t helping, either.  
There's a window in the far corner, but I can't really get to it.  Not without moving a ton of shit out of the way, first.  Lord knows I’m going to work up a sweat just trying to get to it, but it's too damn hot in here not to try.
I need to make sure I step carefully across the room due to the number of weak floorboards.  I wonder what's underneath of this place.  There’s probably an old crawl space or something.  I’m sure I’ll find out soon enough, but right now, I'm not really willing to break my leg to find out. If I don’t watch my step though, I might just end up going right the floor and into whatever is under here without meaning to.
Ivar is standing close to the old mantel bouncing on his toes. "Here's a weak spot," he says turning to face me.  Shifting his weight onto different parts of the plank, he discovers yet another flaw with the floor. That’s good.  This is something we need to know. 
He steps cautiously to the iron grates in front of the fireplace and starts to pull on them. "These are sturdy, though," he gives me a big smile as he continues pulling until his face is red. The grates are bolted into the stone structure and have probably rusted into place. That's awesome.
Placing one foot directly in front of the other, I count the number of steps it takes me to get from the front door to this space near the window. I know when it gets dark I won't be able to see my hand in front of my face and I need to know how to navigate my way around this room. Exactly twenty-five steps. Not bad for a guy that wears a size twelve shoe. If our guest is a woman, it will take her more steps because her feet are going to be smaller.  That gives me an advantage. "Twenty-five," I look over at Ivar and he nods, before pulling out his phone to make the note about the distance.  We need to know everything about any possible escape routes.
There are a bunch of chairs, if they can even be considered that, piled up on one side of the room.  They aren’t in the best of shape, either.  Most of these are gonna have to go, or maybe we can repurpose them or something.  That is, if they would even hold together long enough to be used again.  Each time I pick one up it seems to break apart in my hands and kicks up more dirt and shit when the wood hits the floor. 
I think all the dust flying around is upsetting all the maggots that were enjoying that dead raccoon under this pile of shit because they're starting to squirm around the more, now.  I don’t know why I’m so fascinated by them.  If we didn’t need to really scope this place out, I would be perfectly happy sitting on this floor and watching them completely devour this animal.  
I got shit to do, now.  I’ll check on their progress later.  
Finally, I clear enough of a pathway that I can make it to the window.  Of course, it’s just my fucking luck the goddamn window is painted shut.  I don’t care how much I strain, this thing ain’t budging.  God, it’s so fucking hot in here. 
Ivar's hand on my shoulder makes me turn around and before I can fully face him, I see him hurl a chair leg at a pane of glass.  He turns around with a boyish smile and shrugs his shoulders, “Better?”  Almost immediately I feel the breeze from the trees outside breathe life into the room and carry out some of the moldy smell. 
Nodding my head, I can't help but smile at him.  He always knows what I need without me having to tell him.
I close my eyes at the feeling of his lips on my forehead, "Where'd you find this place?" We're out in the middle of nowhere. This cabin was built deep in the woods for a reason. Whoever lived here before, did not want to be disturbed.
"Remember the one from a few weeks ago…the personal trainer?”  Ivar snaps his finger as he tries to recall the occupation of our former guest.  He casually starts to walk into another room to explore, “ I buried that one not far from here. I found this place on my way back.” 
“You did good, little brother.”  I’m so proud of him.  This place is a rare find.  I look out the hole in the window and can hear a creek running not far from where we are.  Not only have we found our next venue, but it has a wonderful ambiance.  "It's gorgeous." I want to spend more time looking out of this broken window, I probably would, but I know that there is much more to discover.
Walking the twenty-five paces back to the front door of the cabin, I decide to count off how many paces it takes to get to the stairs.  Counting aloud, I count off 14 paces from the entrance to the first of the broken, stone stairs leading up to the second level. If I'm not careful, these stairs may crumble under my weight. I am going to have to carefully mark my footing if I am going to navigate them successfully. 
It's dangerous, I know, but we don't take chances. We need to know everything about our surroundings, just in case our company decides they want to leave early.  We need to know where we might possibly find them, and more importantly what kind of condition they might be in when we get to them.  
The third step is extremely wobbly and probably won't support me. Instead of chancing it, I skip that one and place my foot on the step above it. From here, I can see the open floor plan of the upper level.  There's little to nothing up here; mainly bird shit, a few dead animals, and a big ass hole in the roof. The floor is completely rotted through to the point where I can see the exposed joists that were used to create the downstairs ceiling. Apparently, the termites haven't eaten through to the ceiling yet because I didn't notice this hole while I was downstairs.
There's nothing we can use up here as much as I can tell. I mean, I really can’t do too much exploring up here because I can’t walk around.  I can't even step on the floor because just pushing my hand on one spot sends a board straight through to the lower level. I flinch at the crash it makes on the floor below. "Sorry!" I don't think Ivar even hears me because he doesn't answer. 
Taking one final look at this room, I notice a small door hidden in a corner just below a huge spider web. Now my curiosity has got the better of me. It’s not like the door is on the other side of the room.  I just have to make it over to the corner.  I have to check it out, even if it means that I actually go through the ceiling myself.
You get used to crawling around in dark, dirty places after a while. Not the dirt covering my knees nor the blood on my palms, from the where the jagged pieces of bare wood of the ceiling beams cutting into them, bother me. My only concern is getting to that door. Who knows what treasures might await inside.
I make sure to keep my weight steady. Sliding one leg and one hand across the beams in even strokes, I listen intently to the wood creaking under me. On all fours, it takes me less than thirty seconds to make it across to my destination. I make sure to keep a mental note of the amount of time it takes to reach this door.  Who knows, that information might come in handy.
The door opens without protest, but I can't see anything inside. I use my cellphone flashlight to illuminate the crawlspace enough for me to see what I want to. The area is barely bigger than a closet and there are all kinds of hooks, chains, and tackle stored within. "Fishermen." It makes sense. There's a creek right down the way. This secluded cabin was probably some fisherman's home away from home at one point in time.  Gathering as much of the stuff from as inside as I can, I slide it along the floor back toward the stairs. 
Peering down from the landing, I see Ivar standing in the front room tapping his finger against his bottom lip. He's got a vision, that look on his face is a dead giveaway. "Catch."
He looks up with happy eyes and moves toward the stairs to see what it is that I've found. His smile gets wider with each item I throw down to him. "All this shit was upstairs? This place is fucking amazing!"
"Watch the third step..." I hadn't had a chance to tell him about it before he starts climbing up to catch the bait box that lands just short of his grasp. He wobbles on it and manages to jump down before the step completely slides off of the platform it was resting on.
Picking himself up from off the floor, he dusts off his pants and claps his hands together to get the wet leaves off of them. "That it?" When I nod, he gathers the items and carries them over to the fireplace.
Carefully, I make my way down the stairs, jumping from the fourth step to the floor. I see that Ivar's found more shit from the other room that he has now placed in front of the fireplace. A hatchet, sheets, and something that resembles a bed frame. "What's all this?"
"I haven't really figured out what it's all for yet, but give me a few hours. There's a bunch of other shit in there, too." With a shrug, he turns to me and gives a sheepish smile. "There's a mattress in there for you, if you want it."
A mattress? This place is like the fucking North Pole and Ivar is Santa Claus. I don't remember the last time I was able to do it on a mattress, excluding being with Thora. Usually, I get a chair, table, or the floor. Not that I mind, but with the condition of our accommodations being what they are, I usually end up with cuts and scrapes on me because of it. But a mattress? The possibilities are endless.
"So what do you think? You like it?" Ivar looks so hopeful when he turns to face me and takes both of my hands in his.
I'm so impressed with his find, words can't even describe it. "You’ve outdone yourself this time, Ivy. It’s perfect!" I squeeze his hands before turning toward the other room. "What's that room like?"
Running a hand through his dark hair, he shrugs. "A bunch of junk, mostly. But I figure, if we pull out everything we need into this room and pile all of the other shit in front of that door, we can just entertain in here." I follow behind him and take a look at all of the things left behind from the previous owner including the piles of nude magazines scattered around the room. 
People and their porn. I'll never understand perverts.
It only takes a minute to drag out the mattress and we toss it in the front room along with everything else. Ivar returns with a few lanterns and oil and they go on top of the mantle. Right now, this place looks like shit, but over the next few days, we'll set it up how we want it. After Ivar gets an idea of where he wants everything placed and what exactly he wants to do, this place will be a palace.
We walk in silence around the back of the cabin and push past the bushes to see the creek. “Hey, Serk?”  Ivar picks up a large branch from the ground as we walk, “Doesn’t this place remind you of the cabin we had when we were kids?”  There is happiness in his voice when he asks me.  
I nod, remembering how we used to fish and stick our bare feet in the water. “I remember me and Ubbe were always sword fighting.  And, you used to cry all the time because you never came home with any fish.”
“That was because of Sigurd,” Ivar says laughing.  “Fucker.  Remember that Fall at the cabin when we found out that we were best brothers and soul mates?”  I feel warm all over, as Ivar takes my hand in his and we swing our arms as we continue to walk.     
I nod my head and suddenly I’m stunned silent.  “It’s so beautiful here.” This creek is gorgeous. "Hey, Ivar? Do you think we would ever be able to have a place like this one day?  Like a place just for us?" I feel like a child with my request, but my memories of our childhood cabin are foggy at best.  I would love to have a home away from home, just those fishermen had. Sure, Ivar and I have a house together that's beautifully decorated and is warm and inviting, but we don't have a place to play together. 
Ivar's always complaining that with the amount of time we spend scoping out locations, we're seriously cutting in on the number of parties we could have. And I have to agree. If we had one place, we could party all the time. "With our own play place, we could entertain whenever we wanted to. And if he had a place like this one, we could do some work on it, like rig the floors or build little hidey holes to keep them in, or something.  Maybe you could use the fireplace or a creek if you wanted to get rid of them?  We would make sure it’s secluded in the woods, and it would have to be near a body of water somewhere." I probably sound desperate and pathetic, but this is something that I want so badly. "I don't know. It just seems like it'd be pretty cool."
“Do you really like it here?”  Ivar asks me with interest?  He takes my hand still intertwined in his and brings it to his lips.  "If you want this place Serk, it's ours. You know I would give you anything you wanted." The serenity in his voice makes my cheeks flush. 
Just standing at the mouth of the creek looking at the murky water flowing happily downstream, and knowing that we now have a place to call ours makes me feel so completely at peace. I know that I wouldn't want to share what I'm feeling with anyone but Ivar. He's the only one that can understand why I'm so happy. 
"Happy birthday, big brother.”  His soft lips capture mine and I immediately close my eyes and lose myself in the feeling of his hands in my hair. My arms snake around his waist to pull him closer to me as I try to feel more of the hardening in his pants against me.  “I love you, Hvitserk.”  He traces my lips with this index finger as if to permanently seal in his kiss.
“I love you, too,” I whisper back looking into his intense blue eyes.
Suddenly, Ivar looks at his watch and our private moment is broken, “It’s almost 7 o’clock, you’ve got to get going.  I’m going to stay around here and try to get some stuff done.” He turns and starts to walk back toward the cabin and I follow him in silence. 
By the time we reach our respective cars, he stops in front of me and gives me a quick peck on my lips, “Have fun tonight.”
As much as I'd love to stay and help him prepare the house, I know he's right. I have to get home and showered before I pick up Thora. She's going home for a week and I want to spend some time with her before she leaves. I don’t know how long Ivar is going to be working here, but he promised to give Thora and I uninterrupted time together. 
We found a fully stocked play place, I'm going to spend some time with my girl, and I have the best little brother in the world. What more can a man ask for?  
This has been the best birthday I have ever had.
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all-about-ebikes · 4 years
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Everything You Need To Know About Ebikes
Hoverboards, skateboards, scooters, motorcycles, mopeds, unicycles, tricycles, you name it, we've ridden it. But I'm here to tell you why I think electric bikes, in particular, are more than just a fun tech fad. I think they could actually be the future of transportation. But that said, there's a lot out there, and you don't wanna get fooled. So here's some stuff you need to know about e-bikes.  
Obviously, e-bikes are not new. They've been around for decades. And if you live in China or Europe, it's a good bet that e-bikes are already a way of life for you. In Europe, for example, e-bikes have long helped older adults maintain independence and are just now really blowing up with younger riders. But here in the U.S., e-bikes are still pretty niche. They only account for 4% of total bike sales. Compare that to more bike-friendly countries like the Netherlands where there are more e-bikes sold than regular bikes. Overall, experts predict that worldwide sales will hit $23.8 billion by 2025.  But Americans are slowly coming around. Sales of electric bikes in the U.S. have grown more than eight folds since 2014. It took a long time to get to this point. 
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Now one of the first patents for an electric-bike was registered in 1895 by an inventor named Ogden Bolton. Now Bolton didn't actually end up making or selling any of his bikes, but amazingly some of the same design details can be found in e-bikes today. A rear hub motor with a battery centrally mounted on the frame. Now I know what you're thinking. What the hell is he talking about?  A rear hub motor, amps and volts. I don't wanna get ahead of myself. So let's talk about the basics before we get to why e-bikes are the future of transportation. 
 So generally speaking e-bikes are bicycles with a battery-powered assist that comes through when you pedal or in some cases use a throttle. Pushing on the pedal activates a small motor that gives you a boost. So when you're zipping up a hill or cruising over rough terrain, you don't have to break a sweat. Twisting a throttle does the same thing but without pedaling. 
There are two types of motors. There's the mid-drive which is located in the middle of the bike usually between the two pedals. And then there's the hub motor which is located in the center of either the front or the rear wheel. There are pros and cons to both types of motors. 
Hub drives have been around forever and tend to be cheaper and more versatile. They're really excellent motors for anyone needing a reliable e-bike for long, mostly flat commuting. Mid-drives are usually smaller and lighter and can allow for greater torque than hub drives making them well suited for hilly areas and off road use. Their center position on the bike also creates a more balanced ride. And changing a tire on a mid-drive bike is usually less of a pain in the ass. 
e-bikes for sale also tend to use different types of sensors to determine how best to dole out power. There are two types, torque sensors, and cadence sensors. Torque sensors regulate the motor based on how hard you're pushing the pedals, while cadence sensors work off of how fast you pedal. 
Good bikes use torque sensors while the low enders have cadence only, and a lot of bikes use both. I highly recommend testing out both types of motors before buying an e-bikes to see which is the best for you. Think about how you plan on using the bike. Commuting, off-roading, touring?  The better e-bikes brands usually match the appropriate motor placement with the type of bike they're selling. Most mountain bikes come with mid-range motors while the majority of commuter bikes sold in hill-less Amsterdam are hub-based. 
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Now let's talk power. Manufacturers will often offer power ratings for a variety of reasons. Until recently power ratings were a way for bike companies to dance around Europe's strict importation laws which prohibited anything stronger than 250 watts. But now the continent allows the sale of bikes with way more powerful motors, which is good because it allows bikes to be seen as a viable alternative to cars. Still, power ratings can be pretty subjective, and you can probably get away with just ignoring them. 
To get a better idea of how much maximum power you'll actually feel, check to see if they list the volts and the amps. Multiply those two together to get the watt hours or the number of watts that can be delivered in an hour. This gives you a great sense of how much range you'll get. For example, Rad Power Bikes' excellent cargo bike the RadWagon has a battery pack that is 48 volts and 14 amp hours. 48 times 14 equals 672 watt hours. If you're thrifty with your energy usage, each mile you travel will cost you about 20 watt hours. Therefore, a 672 watt hour pack will get you about 34 miles of range.
 Alright, let's talk classes. There are three classes of e-bikes in the U.S. Class one is pedal assist with no throttle. Class two is throttle assisted but with a maximum speed of 20 miles per hour. In a class three, it's pedal-assist only, no throttle, but with a maximum speed of 28 miles per hour. In Europe they only have two classes. Class one, which is by far the most popular, has a maximum speed of 25 kilometers an hour with no helmet required. Class two is 1,000 watt plus motors capable of going 45 kilometer an hour, require a helmet and can't be ridden on bike paths. They're basically motorcycles. 
So where can you buy an e-bike? Well, your local bike store is honestly your best bet. You're gonna get a selection that's been curated by the owners, and the folks that work there are gonna have answers to all your burning questions. Amazon is obviously another place, but there are some pretty serious trade-offs that you have to consider. Your bike could arrive pretty banged up. And the companies that sell e-bikes on Amazon are a little bit ephemeral, here one day, gone the next. It's not just Amazon of course. 
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A majority of the e-bikes sold in the U.S. are just cobbled together from off-the-shelf Chinese made parts that you can find in the catalog. And if that sounds easy, it's because it is. It helps explain why there are like a billion e-bikes companies on Kickstarter and Indiegogo trying to impress you with their flashy designs and futuristic tech. Many don't come with warranties or any customer support. And it's very likely that you're buying a Chinese model that's just been rebranded for Western marketing and sold at a markup. If you find an e-bike that you like, an interesting test is to search the bike's specs on Alibaba to see if something similar is being sold in Asia. It might even be cheaper. 
Alright, so I promised to explain why I think that e-bikes are the future of transportation. So here we go. First, it lowers the barrier to biking. So if you're someone who's older or you're stressed out about the strains of biking, it really lowers the barrier, and it's easier to justify getting on a bike and just ride. You're more likely to ditch your car or delete you Uber app if you know you're gonna get to where you wanna go without getting sweating and stressed out. And look, if you're worried about electric bikes taking all the fun out of cycling, well, you're wrong. A study of the cognitive and psychological effects of outdoor cycling actually found the same results for e-bikes and traditional bikes.
 Let's say climate change has got you down.  Electric bikes are way more sustainable than electric cars. They're gonna make our cities more livable, and they're gonna help clear up traffic congestion. So as our cities are becoming more congested, some companies are turning to e-bikes to make their deliveries. Domino's Pizza recently announced they're gonna be using Rad Power Bikes to make pizza deliveries in some cities. UPS is using electric cargo bikes. German delivery company DPD is gonna be using these really cute looking mini trucks that are actually e-bikes in disguise. E-bikes are changing the way that businesses are doing business. 
So the other day I was riding an e-bike to work, and a remarkable thing happened. Well, first, I wasn't killed, which, in a city as deadly for bikers as New York, is a minor miracle. But more importantly I got to the office super quick, much faster than if I had taken the subway, and I wasn't a sweaty, stressed out mess when I arrived. Here e-bikes are almost exclusively used by food deliver workers, and it got me thinking about how far behind the rest of the world the U.S. is when it comes to bikes. We see them more as recreation than as transportation. Something to be used in fair weather and not in the rain and the snow like the Dutch do. But come on, our U.S. women's team just beat them in the World Cup. Surely we can compete in the saddle as well. Our streets are designed for cars, and pedestrians and bikers are really just an afterthought. But e-bikes can open up a whole world, especially for people with different abilities. Look, they're not gonna solve everything, but I can guarantee that once you start riding, you're not going to wanna stop. Did we make that word up? Is that a real word, rideable? 
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andrewdburton · 4 years
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How we raised $10,000+ for a charity (actual metrics)
What happens when you try to raise money for a cause you care about?
Recently, my wife and I held a fundraiser in NYC. We both come from families of immigrants and we wanted to raise money for families being separated at the border. What we’ve seen has made us feel helpless, outraged, and sad. But we also know that we’re in the enviable position of being able to do something about it.
This was the first time we’ve ever raised money for a fundraiser together and I want to share what we learned (plus all the numbers).
VIDEO: My wife and me explaining why we launched this fundraiser
It turns out I LOVE fundraising. I think it’s because…
It’s a cause I care about
I have friends and readers I can share this with
Thanks to having 40,000 customers, I have no fear of asking for money. Especially from IWT readers who asked for a free ticket to my event, and (1) one had spent $10,000 on my products, (2) another worked at Amazon, and (3) a third was an engineer at VISA. I showed no mercy.
MRW when someone asks for a free ticket to my charity event, but they’ve spent $10,000 on my products
Our fundraising metrics
We raised $12,975, beating our goal of $5,000!! (We donated 100% of that money.)
To raise money, we first asked a few friends in the nonprofit space for their advice. They pointed us to groups we started researching, then we settled on Families Belong Together to donate our funds to.
Our next step was to email friends. We emailed about 50 friends and family, raising $2,450. Some people donated to come to the NYC event we held, while others just donated funds.
Then Cass and I recorded a video explaining why we were raising money and why this is important to us, which I posted on my Instagram feed/stories, Twitter, and LinkedIn. The video got watched about 50,000 times.
That video linked back to our Eventbrite page, which got ~2,000 views and raised ~$9,000.
We held an event in NYC, where we hosted about 35 people in a space donated by https://energi.life/welcome/. Paola from Families Belong Together shared stories about what she’s seen along the border, along with drinks served by Andrew from Crafttender (big thanks to everyone for making this possible!!).
Overall, for our first fundraiser, this was a big success!!
Paola shared her experiences working with Families Belong Together. Some of my friends cried during the presentation.
LESSON #1: Get comfortable with small numbers
Initially, Cass and I set a goal of $50,000. When we went to a few fundraising friends and asked for advice, one of them smiled. “Why don’t you start small?” he gently asked us. Even though it was hard to hear, he was right.
I learned that I had to get comfortable with smaller numbers.
This wasn’t some massive fundraiser where we could leverage crazy press or the entire IWT business (e.g., when IWT raised $300,000 for Pencils of Promise).
After running IWT, where I oversee a team that manages complex lead acquisition, funnels, conversion, and products, I’ve gotten used to big numbers. To give you an example, during the week my wife and I raised $12,975 for this fundraiser, one individual IWT student bought 3 courses equaling $10,388.
So with this fundraiser, it was humbling to start small and be satisfied with small numbers and modest goals. This was my wife and me setting up our first fundraiser together, trying to find a free event space, and trying to send anything we can to support families at the border.
I had to reframe our new goal of “only” $5,000 as a win. When you’re starting something new, it’s hard to remember that starting small is how EVERYONE starts off. This was a great reminder. Most of all, we were just thrilled to be able to contribute to a cause we care about.
LESSON #2: When a friend asks, show up
You might have seen “Ramit’s 10 Money Rules” that I posted a while back. Look closely at #4:
#4: “Never question spending money on books, appetizers, health, or donating to a friend’s charity fundraiser.”
Read about Ramit’s Money Rules 
There’s a reason I always donate to friends’ charity events. When your friend emails you for a fundraiser, they really want your help (in general, people HATE asking for money, so when they do, there’s usually a reason for it).
If you respond and donate quickly, they’ll appreciate it.
And if you donate more than they asked for, they will never forget it.
For example, Sam Gavis-Hughson is a Zero To Launch graduate who helps job candidates prepare for their coding interviews at companies like Google and Facebook. He used our Zero To Launch program to recently run a $50,000 launch. When we posted about our fundraiser, he was one of our first donors and came in big with a $500 donation — that’s more than our requested $100 donation. I will never forget it.
Other friends never donated. Maybe they were busy or missed the email. But I’ll never forget that, either.
Showing up doesn’t just mean spending money. It also means physically showing up when it’s important to your friend.
Over the last couple of weeks, two of my friends have launched books. I went to Nir Eyal’s launch of his book. A few days later, Cass and I went to support Paula Rizzo’s launch of her book. Yes, I’m busy. Yes, it was out of the way. Yes, we showed up.
Showing up for Paula Rizzo’s book launch of Listful Living
When an author launches their book, they’re nervous, they’re excited, and most of all, THEY DESPERATELY WANT YOUR SUPPORT.
SHOW UP!! Show up for birthdays parties, weddings, book launches, and charity events. ALWAYS.
Those are moments in someone’s life that mean so much to them.
Cass and I learned the importance of showing up when we were planning our wedding. After we were married, we made a set of joint rules for attending other people’s weddings:
Always be first on the dance floor
Be the couple that you can seat anywhere because you know we’ll get the table having fun (AKA, don’t be a dud)
Make sure your gifts arrive before the wedding
After going through our first fundraiser, our new rules are:
Always donate to our friends’ fundraisers
Always donate MORE than they ask for (an extra $100 or $200 will always be remembered)
LESSON #3: Deal with critics
Invariably, I had some people who didn’t agree with the cause we were raising money for. I think this stops a lot of people from ever getting started with something like this (or starting a business). What will people think? What will they say? Will my friends get annoyed by me asking them for money?
Whenever you try something new, you’re going to encounter critics. It happened with this fundraiser.
LOL at the critics who decided that instead of donating, they’d leave angry comments on a fundraiser for a good cause.
I typically find that they use 3 strategies:
Telling me they disagree with my cause
Hateful comment: “Send everyone the fuck back” (screenshots below)
Confuse the issue by asking seemingly innocent question (concern trolling): “What about X? Have you considered Y? Are you concerned about Z?”
Here’s how I dealt with them.
First, when they disagree with your cause: I had a woman DM me on Instagram and politely tell me that she doesn’t agree with me politically, but she appreciates that I’m using my platform to support a cause I care about. I totally respect that.
Then there were the #MAGA morons who decided to lob potshots from their anonymous accounts with hateful comments.
Unfortunately for them, this New York Times bestselling author is considerably smarter than the usual empty-headed cretins they deal with at the local parking lot where they spend their Saturday nights.
You can safely ignore twitter commenters whose feeds are filled with hateful posts, whose headshots are cartoon characters wearing a birthday hat, and who seem to share one thing in common: the intellectual aptitude of a gnat. Just move on — they already live in a prison in their own mind.
But beyond anonymous critics, there were the more insidious critics who try to confuse the issue by concern trolling, or asking question after question after question.
Here’s what you must understand: These people will never support your cause, whether it’s a fundraiser or a business or your plan to lose weight. They have no interest in a genuine discussion (if they did, they would engage privately). They’re asking questions because getting others riled up is their entertainment. And, to put it delicately, my successful friends never leave comments like this.
“If it was X, MAYBE I would donate” = “I will never donate”
You can delete or ignore these comments. I intentionally responded to a couple so my followers could see my responses.
If you decide to try something new, remember this: Opinions are cheap. You’ll ALWAYS get people saying, “What about this? What about that? How do where every cent of this $100 is going? If you did X, maybe I would donate.”
Oh, ok. Suddenly, some anonymous guy with an icon of a banana has developed a 14-page quiz on Kantian ethics that you must answer before they donate $100. In reality, they have the moral compass of a cupholder.
Guess what? They’re not your audience.
Actual supporters didn’t demand that I jump through their gauntlet of requirements for one hundred dollars. They wanted to get involved, they clicked DONATE, and they showed up.
It’s fine if not everyone supports your cause (whether it’s a business, a new hobby, or a fundraiser). But I wanted to show you some of the worst critics of all — the ones who try to derail you by questioning you, by concern trolling you, by trying to make you second-guess yourself — so you can see that these people are everywhere.
You want to raise money for your own cause? Great! Do it. My wife and I saw something we wanted to support and we raised over $12,000 to help these families. If you’re more comfortable lobbing hateful comments on social media, then sit down and get the fuck out of my way. I have work to do.
LESSON #4: Use your time and money to live a Rich Life
THIS is a Rich Life — where you use your time and money to help other people.
When something outrages you or inspires you…when something makes you MAD or SAD or THRILLED, that’s an opportunity to lean into it and use your time and money to improve it.
It’s not about needing to have $1,000,000. A tiny amount can change someone’s life.
IWT isn’t simply about earning more money. I show you how to do that in my book, my business courses, and my career courses.
But to be able to use your time and money to help other people…that’s another level.
I want you to see how that you can use money to support the things you care about. Your family, your health, and yes — giving back.
I want to show you that raising money for something you believe in comes in lots of shapes and colors and sizes. It doesn’t mean you have to attend a black-tie gala in Manhattan. I never wrote fundraising checks as a child — but I did do “sewa” (volunteer service) at my local Sikh temple.
I want to show you how to pick a goal, then go after it without anyone or anything getting in your way. Critics? GTFO. What about the perfect financial structu–forget all that! Raise the money and send it.
More than anything, I want you to know that you can define your Rich Life. This is ours. I hope you find yours and lean into it.
How we raised $10,000+ for a charity (actual metrics) is a post from: I Will Teach You To Be Rich.
from Finance https://www.iwillteachyoutoberich.com/blog/how-we-raised-10000-for-a-charity/ via http://www.rssmix.com/
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ether4life-blog · 5 years
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#ProgPoW From the View of an IC Design Engineer
I am an IC design engineer who has also been mining cryptocurrencies since 2014. Although, unlike many other miners from back then, I am not the owner of a large mining farm, I do have a mining setup that makes just enough profit for me to justify the time I spend on it to my wife. Amidst all varying points of views on ProgPoW circulating online, I hope to share those of an IC engineer.
Whether the algorithm is ProgPoW or ETHash, the hashrate is determined by the storage bandwidth of external DRAM. That is,
Hashrate = k*BW
where k is a constant factor and is different for ETHash and ProgPoW
Therefore, to increase the hashrate for ETHash or progPoW, we need to increase the memory bandwidth. In the early years, high-bandwidth memory devices were mainly GDDR5 in graphics cards. Only AMD and Nvidia GPUs could handle such a high-bandwidth memory. So, GPUs from Nvdia or AMD became the most popular for ETHash mining. Now the memory demand for profitably mining ETHash has increased significantly. This demand for high-bandwidth memory has prompted the development of next-generation high-speed memory tech such as GDDR6 and HMB2. In Q4 of 2018, Innosilicon released its GDDR6 IP together with its ETHash mining ASIC. Because of the similarities that exist between the algorithm as well as architecture of ProgPoW and those of ETHash, I believe that Innosilicon’s next ASIC would be tailored for ProgPoW. 3-4 months is sufficient time to design and mass-produce such an ASIC once the parameters of ProgPoW are fixed. I believe that Bitmain is also secretly developing its own GDDR6 IP. Other companies, such as Rambus and eSilicon, have already released IP of GDDR6 and HMB2. I have no doubt that other mining ASIC producers, such as Linzhi and Canaan Creative, will soon adopt GDDR6 or HBM2 in their future generation chips. So, we may see many GDDR6/HBM2 based ASICs for ProgPOW in the near future if ProgPoW is implemented.
Mining ASICs can use optimization methods based on GDDR6 and HBM2. Just an example of these methods is having more GDDR6/HBM2 memory banks in ASICs than GPUs. Take Nvidia's 2080. It uses 8 GDDR6s and operates at 14Gbps, giving it a total bandwidth (BW) of 8*14*32/8 = 448Gbps. According to the bandwidth requirement of ProgPoW, the theoretical hashrate should be
hashrate = BW/64/256 = 27.3Mh/s.
Considering the storage efficiency, the actual value should be 25.5Mh/s. An ASIC producer can use the smaller GDDR6 memory banks to gain cost advantages over GPUs. 16 GDDR6 4GB memory banks can be used to achieve a 2x bandwidth advantage, while maintaining GDDR6 costs at almost the same level. In this case, the available bandwidth is 16*14*32/8 = 896Gbps, and the theoretical hashrate is,
hahsrate = 896Gbps/256/64 = 54.6Mh/s
which gives 2x more hashrate advantage. But the silicon area of 4GB GDDR6 is 50% smaller than that of the 8GB GDDR6. So the price of 4GB GDDR6 should be 60% less than the price of 8GB GDDR6. The total cost of GDDR6 is summarized in Table 1 below.
Let’s look into the internal structure of a GPU chip, such as the Nvidia  RTX2080, as shown in Figure 1 from Nvidia.
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Fig.1: Architecture of Nvidia RTX2080
There are many modules in the RTX2080 chip that occupy a lot of the chip area and are useless for ProgPoW. These include PCIE, NVLINK, L2Cache, 3072 shading units, 64 ROPs, 192 TMUs et. all. An ASIC producer could remove these graphics functions and optimize the same chip area for ProgPOW algorithms, which could reduce the chip area to roughly 1/3rd that of Nvidia’s RTX2080 chip. So, the cost of such an AISC chip would be only 1/3rd that of the RTX2080 because, with the same number of silicon wafers, the number of such ASIC chips that can be produced would be three times more.
And, compared to large chips, small chips have higher yields and lower packaging and testing costs. The yield calculation formula is:
Y = 1/power(1+0.08*die_area)^22.4
For the Nvidia RTX2080 GPU, the die area is 545 mm^2. So the calculated yield of the GPU is 23%. If the area is reduced to 1/3rd, the yield Y will increase by 60%. Low yield will result in a higher cost of the GPU. The cost of such an ASIC would be 1/3*23/60 = 0.13 of that of the GPU. That is a 7.7x more advantage for the ProgPoW ASIC compared to the GPU. Estimating maturity of the GPU, I will keep this advantage limited to 5x for the next calculation. On the system PCB, the ProgPoW ASIC would also have a cost advantage if the ASIC producer were to eliminate the PCIE and complex thermal designs which are required by GPU cards. In an ASIC based mining machine, a large number of ASIC chips and GDDR6, using much simpler and cost-effective heat sink design, would be way more densely packed (and thus shipped). The system cost in a GPU cards may be 50%, but the PCB cost of the ASIC based mining machine can easily be reduced to 30%. I have made the overall cost comparison for GPU and ASICs in Table 1.
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Table 1: the comparison of GPU and ASIC for ProgPOW
As for the power consumption, the GPU would consume much more power as it can only work at the normal voltage, which is usually 0.8V. However, the ProgPoW ASIC’s power consumption can be reduced by reducing the operating voltage. According to Ohm's law, power is proportional to the square of the voltage:
P = U*I = U^2/R
The voltage of ASICs can easily be reduced to 0.4V, which is 1/2 that of GPU’s. Thus, for the same hashrate, the ProgPoW ASIC would consume only 1/4th the power consumed by the GPU. In other words, the ProgPoW ASIC can have an energy efficiency ratio 4x that of the GPU. Such low-voltage ASIC designs are already utilized by ASIC producers in Bitcoin mining machines and there is no reason to believe that they would not be used in ProgPoW ASICs. The same power-saving can also be achieved in LPDDR4x DRAM, which has a lower power consumption than GDDR6. GDDR6 works at 1.35v, while LPDDR4X works at 0.6V, which is less than half that of the GDDR6. So GDDR6 consumes at least 4x more power than LPDDR4x. So an ASIC with LPDDR4x DRAM has a 4x more power efficiency over a GPU with GDDR6. I have shown this in Table 2.
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Table 2: Power efficiency comparison of GPU and ASIC with ProgPoW
Furthermore, designing GPUs requires a much higher R&D investment in terms of both human resource and time. Because GPU is a general-purpose acceleration chip, it usually takes about 12 months for a GPU to be designed, fabricated and tested, requiring a lot of hardware simulations and software developing to cover different computing scenarios. But the design and test for ProgPoW's ASICs, are much simpler. A dedicated team of experienced IC designers could take as little as 2 months for design, 6 weeks for fabrication and 2 weeks for testing of ProgPoW ASICs. Thus, it could take only 3 to 4 months for ProgPoW ASICs to be ready for mass production. For ASIC companies, such as Bitmain and Innosilicon, which are already producing ETHash mining ASICs, integrating ProgPoW in their previous designs to produce a ProgPoW ASIC would be even simpler. A GPU producer like Nvidia employs about 8000 people to develop GPUs, which are much more complicated, whereas an ASIC producer like Linzhi only employs a dozen or so people to focus only on ASICs for ETHash mining. The labor costs of these companies company are different by a factor of 100. So ASICs have further advantages in terms of cost and time-to-market than GPU chips.
To summarize, ProgPoW ASICs seems inevitable if ProgPoW were implemented and it would take only 3-4 months for them to hit mass production. Furthermore, they would have at least a 4x advantage in both cost and power efficiency over a GPU for accelerating the ProgPoW algorithm. This would bring us right back to where we started pre-ProgPoW and begs the question: Why ProgPoW or why ASIC-resistance?
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priya789 · 3 years
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List Of Top 10 Best Family-SUVs
One of life's most critical considerations in deciding which car is best for transporting you and your family. As a result, we've compiled a list of our favourite family SUVs.
They're all well-suited to the expanding number of people who want practicality, comfort, and low operating costs, as well as a higher driving position and off-roader appearances. We've also highlighted the models to avoid if you don't want to make a costly choice.
 Maybe you're one of the thousands of people shopping for a family SUV, you've come to the right place. Then you have the option of selecting the number of seats. The bulk of them has five seats and a big trunk. However, if you require seven seats, there are a few available. Only a few of them have a large boot with all of the seats in place.
Audi Q5
It's difficult to find flaws in such a refined and capable all-rounder as the Audi Q5, but the car's slightly anodyne handling will turn off more experienced drivers. Despite this flaw, the Q5 has been able to replicate the sales success of its predecessor, which was the best-selling car in its segment in practically every country where it was sold.
The Q5 is a quiet, practical, and appealing SUV with superb driving finesse and material quality, and there's now a swoopy-roofed Sportback version if you prefer your SUVs with a little more beauty and less utility.
 In 2020, the Q5 underwent a rather extensive revamp, with efficiency-boosting mild-hybrid engines beneath the hood, new digital electronics in the cabin, and a larger trapezoidal grille on the front end. As part of the update, the popular 40 TDI received a 14-bhp power boost, and it remains a smooth, comfortable, assertive-performing, and easy-to-drive family car.
With its electric motor and 2.0-litre turbo petrol four-pot combining to create just shy of 300bhp, the 50 TFSI e plug-in hybrid is a very smooth operator.
The 55 TFSI e, on the other hand, brings it close to 400-. For both variants of the automobile, the electric-only range and CO2 emissions have decreased, making them more competitive offerings on benefit-in-kind tax than they were previously.
Land Rover Discovery Sport
The Discovery Sport may be the cheapest Land Rover on the market, but it's not short on Land Rover capabilities, comfort, or charm.
The Discovery Sport has been facelifted for 2019, and it now rides on the same PTA platform as the Range Rover Evoque, but it retains all of the features we liked about the original. It's still higher-riding than many of its competitors, has better visibility and 4x4 capabilities than many, and drives more like a regular SUV than some while still handling admirably. It boasts a practical cabin - with seven seats available for those who need them, which is a key selling point in this class - that has now been given a much-needed boost in premium appeal and is now equipped with Land Rover's latest 'Pivi' infotainment system.
In order to enhance fuel economy, its petrol and diesel engines are now complemented with 48V mild-hybrid architecture, but the particularly sleek P300e plug-in hybrid variant stands out with its fairly long electric range. If you're looking for a family SUV with more adaptability and off-road toughness than the competition, the Discovery Sport offers minimal compromises.
BMW X3
What exactly is this: a mid-range SUV with decent handling? The thought of BMW creating SUVs would have been ridiculous before, but the BMW X3 has handling appeal down pat.
The X3 has plenty of power and performance; the smaller diesel engines are a little rough around the edges, but the multi-cylinder M40d and M40i are quick and smooth. Because it is now unavailable with the all-important adaptive M suspension, the plug-in X3 xDrive30e PHEV may not shine as brightly as its conventionally powered rangemates dynamically (which brings with it mass-checking adaptive dampers), However, the petrol-electric X3 is sleek and enjoyable to drive in other regions, even if it isn't the most tax-efficient PHEV due to its limited electric range.
The BMW is a close third in class, behind the more luxurious Q5 and the more practical Discovery Sport. On some trim levels, standard equipment is a little sparse, but the car's perceived quality is superior to almost all others, and its on-road qualities are difficult to fault.
Jaguar F-Pace
In 2016, Jaguar's first SUV hit the market with generally outstanding handling, plenty of passenger space, and looks that propelled it to the top of the Jaguar range as the company's best-selling model until it was surpassed by the smaller E-Pace.
A few minor elements, such as some unremarkable four-cylinder diesel engines, a sluggish automatic gearbox, and a slightly twitchy, noisy ride in certain configurations, detract a little from the overall driving experience. However, as part of its big mid-life redesign in 2021, Jaguar did a lot to improve the car's appearance. With a more luxurious interior and a substantially enhanced infotainment system, as well as a wider variety of engines, including a torquey six-cylinder mild-hybrid diesel and a six-pot plug-in hybrid petrol, the new model has a lot to offer. The D300 diesel is still our pick for balanced in-town and out-of-town driving, although the mild-hybridized four-pot diesel has improved drivability over the years.
The quicker F-Pace SVR is also a lot of fun, and it's a great example of a well-executed performance SUV with plenty of V8 drama.
Skoda Kodiaq
The Kodiaq is our best family SUV that isn't made by a premium brand, and it undercuts even the most affordable of the plusher options on this list by a big amount.
So, what are you giving up? For starters, there's a substantial amount of premium-feeling materials, albeit everything appears to be well-screwed together. The top four SUVs on this list all have superior handling and ride quality than the Kodiaq, but they don't all have the third row.
Apart from the slightly over-firm and distant manner in which the Kodiaq drives, it's an excellent car in almost every regard. An oily-bits facelift might easily solve the car's primary issues, and we'll be driving one shortly.
Mercedes-Benz GLC
The handling element sorts the class leaders from the also-rans in the second part of our top 10.
The redesigned Mercedes GLC, with its well-appointed and luxurious-feeling cabin, merits a spot in the top 10, but its numb handling makes it a poor choice for enthusiastic drivers. It drives more like a car than many of the full-fledged SUVs on our list, but it also rides less peacefully than a Mercedes-Benz should on ordinary steel coil suspension, making it difficult to recommend in base trim.
It is, nevertheless, one of the most laid-back, effectively comfort-oriented cars in the class when equipped with optional air suspension, and it comes in a variety of mechanical flavours, including the GLC 300e petrol-electric PHEV, the GLC 300de diesel-electric PHEV, and the GLC 63 V8 hot-rod SUV. It's something to think about.
Alfa Romeo Stelvio
Alfa Romeo took the Giulia's platform and engines, added extra ride height, a raised hip point, and four-wheel-drive technology, and created the Stelvio, a fine-handling SUV.
Remarkable handling and classic Alfa Romeo aesthetics are standard, as is a powerful but gruff diesel engine. Unfortunately, Alfa's emphasis on good handling has resulted in a jittery ride on rougher UK roads, and some of the cabin components, like those on the Giulia, feel basic and cheap.
A redesign in 2020 improved things slightly in this regard, adding a new infotainment system and improved driver aids, although the distinctions between this and the original will still take a keen eye to find. It is, however, reasonably priced, albeit not as competitively as it was when it was first released three years ago. Without a doubt, it's one for the more experienced driver; yet, it may not be for the dynamically uninterested SUV fanatic.
Volvo XC60
At the time of its launch in 2017, this was the safest car ever evaluated by Euro NCAP, and it's still one of the most attractive family SUVs on the market today.
The XC60 isn't the most appealing vehicle to drive, but as a slick, comfortable, and easy-to-use family waggon, it has a lot to recommend it. Volvo has also updated its engine lineup, with all XC60 models now featuring some sort of electrification. The B-series petrol and diesel vehicles now have a 48V mild-hybrid architecture enabling fractional fuel consumption and CO2 emissions savings, but it's the T6 and T8 Recharge plug-in hybrids that offer the most low-cost running possibilities. However, they do not have as much electric range as competitors.
Seat Tarraco
The Tarraco is Seat's first full-size SUV, and it's a good-looking one at that. Because it is a Volkswagen Group product, the Tarraco shares almost everything with the Skoda Kodiaq, with the exception that, unlike its sibling, the Tarraco comes standard with seven seats across the range.
Although it feels a little more incisive and agile than other SUVs of its size, this sharper handling appears to come at the sacrifice of rolling refinement and downright comfort. In a vehicle like this, comfort and refinement should certainly take precedence. Nonetheless, the cabin is nicely polished, and the petrol and diesel engines are extremely refined. It's also quite reasonably priced.
Kia Sorento
Well, hasn't the Sorento come a long way since the drab, boxy first model that debuted in 2002? Its new fourth-generation model easily has the design appeal to compete with the actual luxury competitors in this class.
It earns big marks for being one of the most spacious, practical, and versatile automobiles on the list thanks to its spacious interior and seven-seat arrangement. On the surface, there appears to be very nothing this attractive Korean SUV can't achieve, thanks to its appealingly low price.
However, there is a catch. Its conventional hybrid powertrain isn't quite up to the task of delivering the fuel efficiency benefits you'd expect from normal daily driving, and the car's dynamic performance is quite average. At a steady cruise, it's polished and comfortable enough, but dig a little deeper and flaws emerge, particularly in terms of body control, ride sophistication, and steering feel.
Still, it has a lot going for it as a practical, well-made, well-equipped, and reasonably priced family SUV that's easy to drive. The diesel variants are also reasonably refined and run well, and the PHEV is more secure and drivable than the standard hybrid.
It'd be more of a gut-feeling option than any other automobile on our list, but that's not necessarily a bad thing.
Conclusion
It's a strongly fought and strategically significant segment, where consumers prioritise design, safety, and size, and capacity for seven occupants is frequently necessary. Manufacturers ignore the importance of this sector at their risk, considering that it has essentially demolished the MPV market and is only likely to increase in the future.
It's currently a somewhat diverse genre, despite a lack of variety in appearance and approach. A wide range of enterprises has entered the SUV market as a result of this category. Many models are now available as tax-friendly plug-in hybrids as manufacturers fight for a larger portion of the more emissions-conscious fleet market.
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centerforhci · 3 years
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Diversity as a Revenue Engine: What 16+ Studies Reveal
“What’s the business case for DEI?” is one of the most common questions we hear. Investing in diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) leads to cost savings through reduced attrition and absenteeism, and faster, less expensive recruiting; it also contributes to the top line as well. Dozens of studies from respected sources have revealed the business benefits related to DEI so we’ve compiled 16+ studies that show why DEI is a revenue engine.
McKinsey’s 2020 report: Diversity Wins: How Inclusion Matters analysts found that, “Companies in the top quartile for gender diversity on their executive teams were 25 percent more likely to experience above-average profitability than companies in the fourth quartile,” as well as “36 percent likelihood of outperformance on EBIT margin for ethnic and cultural diversity.”
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2. The World Economic Forum’s report Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion 4.0 suggests that companies with diverse employees have “up to 20% higher rate of innovation and 19% higher innovation revenues.”
3. A frequently cited study by Catalyst found that Fortune 500 companies with three or more women board directors attained markedly higher financial performance, on average, than those with the lowest representation. Those with the highest percentage of women achieved 53 percent higher return on equity, 42 percent higher return on sales, and 66 percent higher return on invested capital.
4. The Center for Talent Innovation found that employees in firms with above average diverse leaders are 60 percent more likely to see their ideas developed, 75 percent more likely to see their innovation implemented, 70 percent more likely to have captured a new market in the past year, and 87 percent more likely to feel welcome and included in their teams.
5. According to PwC’s 20th annual CEO survey (2020), diversity and inclusion was the top priority for global CEOs, with 83 percent agreeing that they promote diversity and inclusion initiatives.
6. Per the diagram below, the Berkeley University Center for Equity, Gender, and Leadership has found that DEI drives five key levers of financial performance.
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Berkeley University Center for Equity, Gender, and Leadership 7.  The Center for Equity, Gender and Leadership has found that companies with a higher proportion of women in their executive committees possessed stronger financial performance, including a 41% increase in Return on Equity on average, and those in the top 25% for gender diversity are 15% more likely to possess financial returns above national industry means.
8. A 2016 Credit Suisse study reported that firms with 25% female senior leadership outperformed peers at a 2.8% compound annual growth rate. This annual growth rate number increased to 4.7% for companies with 33% female senior leadership and 10.3% for companies with 50% female senior leadership.
9.  A 2018 Harvard Business Review article states that firms in the top quartile for racial and ethnic diversity and inclusion are 35 percent more likely to have financial returns above their respective national industry medians and that diversity overall improved profitable investments at the individual portfolio-company level and overall fund returns. Teams that shared the same ethnicity experienced a lower success rate for investments: 26.4%, compared to 32.2% for diverse teams. The same article states that firms with above-average DEI measured by six dimensions — migration, industry, career path, gender, education, age — had 9% points higher EBIT margins, on average.
10. A HBR article reports that employees of firms with diverse leadership are 45% likelier to report a growth in market share over the previous year and 70% likelier to report that the firm captured a new market. This article also demonstrates that when members of a team have traits in common with a client, such as ethnicity, they are 152% likelier than another team to understand that client, and that leaders who emphasize inclusion, by giving diverse voices equal airtime, are nearly twice as likely as others to unleash value-driving insights, and employees in a “speak up” culture are 3.5 times as likely to contribute their full innovative potential. Where diversity exists without equity and inclusion, these results are rarely achieved.
11. A study by the Center for Talent Innovation reports that ideas from women, people of color, LGBTs, and Gen-Ys are less likely to win the endorsement they need to go forward because 56% of leaders don’t value ideas they don’t personally see a need for. The data strongly suggest that homogeneity stifles innovation.
12. Leaders should also bear in mind that changing demographics are causing the buying power of people of color to increase much more quickly than that of White Americans and that already a majority of youths under 18 are of color. By 2030 a majority of young workers will be people of color, and by 2040, people of color will be the majority across the US as a whole.
13. Bear those numbers in mind when you consider that a recent Glassdoor survey found that 67% of job seekers evaluate a company’s diversity practices before accepting a job offer.
14. Moreover, employees with the highest level of engagement perform 20% better and are 87% less likely to leave the organization, according to a survey by Towers Perrin.
15. And, according to LinkedIn, turnover costs employers half of an entry-level person’s salary and up to 250% of a senior executive’s salary. As you tap diverse networks for critical talent like data scientists, sales specialists and engineers, imagine the costs of losing and having to replace them, let alone the costs and difficulty of recruiting them if your firm is not already known as a great place for diverse talent to work.
16. Performance Excellence Network compiled an up-to-date and compelling list of financial and business reasons for DEI:
The top quartile of diverse companies are more likely to financially outperform their national industry means — 35% for ethnic diversity and 15% of gender diversity (McKinsey)
Diverse management teams deliver 19% higher revenues from innovation (defined as new products within three years) compared to their less diverse counterparts; in other words, they produce better ideas (BCG)
Companies with a diverse workforce enjoy 2.3 times higher cash flow per employee, and smaller companies as much as 13 times higher cash flow (Bersin)
Employees in highly diverse and inclusive organizations show 26% more team collaboration and 18% more team commitment than those in non-inclusive organizations (CEB/Gartner)
Teams that follow an inclusive process make decisions two times (2X) faster with half the meetings, and decisions made by diverse teams delivered 60% better results (Forbes)
Inclusive companies are three times (3X) more likely to retain Millennials for more than five years (Deloitte)
According to a national study, those who experienced discrimination at work were twice as likely as those who have not to report illness, injury, or assault which impacts productivity, engagement, and overall workforce effectiveness (NCBI)
CHCI weaves over a decade of DEI expertise into all of our core offerings. If you want to determine your company’s DEI strengths, opportunities for growth, and actionable next steps, check out DEI360, our new online assessment tool. We’d love to help.
Recommended Reading
Laura Tyson, Jeni Klugman, Genevieve Smith, Business Culture & Practice As A Driver For Gender Equality & Women’s Economic Empowerment, org
Mark Misercola, Higher Returns with Women In Decision-Making Positions, Credit Suisse, March 2016
Girls Rule, Forbes, October 2010
Rocio Lorenzo, Martin Reeves, How and Where Diversity Drives Financial Performance, Harvard Business Review, June 2018.
Paul Gompers, Silpa Kovvali, The Other Diversity Dividend, Harvard Business Review, July/August 2018.
Vivian Hunt, Dennis Layton, Sara Prince, Why Diversity Matters, McKinsey & Company, 2015 Why DEI Matters, Catalyst, June 2020
Rocío Lorenzo, Nicole Voigt, Miki Tsusaka, Matt Krentz, Katie Abouzahr, How Diverse and Inclusive Leadership Teams Boost Innovation, The Boston Consulting Group, June 2018
Paul Gompers, Silpa Kovvali, The Other Diversity Dividend, Harvard Business Review, July/August 2018.
Vivian Hunt, Dennis Layton, Sara Prince, Why Diversity Matters, McKinsey & Company, 2015 Why DEI Matters, Catalyst, June 2020
Rocío Lorenzo, Nicole Voigt, Miki Tsusaka, Matt Krentz, Katie Abouzahr, How Diverse and Inclusive Leadership Teams Boost Innovation, The Boston Consulting Group, June 2018
Rocío Lorenzo, Nicole Voigt, Karin Schetelig, Annika Zawadzki, Isabell M. Welpe, Prisca Brosi, The Mix That Matters: Innovation Through Diversity, The Boston Consulting Group, April 2017
Sylvia Ann Hewlett, Melinda Marshall, Laura Sherbin, How Diversity Can Drive Innovation, Harvard Business Review, December 2013
Mariateresa Torchia, Andrea Calabrò, Michèle Morner, Board of Directors’ Diversity, Creativity, and Cognitive Conflict: The Role of Board Members Interaction, International Studies of Management & Organization, vol. 45, no. 1 (2015): p. 6–24.
Sylvia Ann Hewlett, Melinda Marshall, Laura Sherbin, and Tara Gonsalves, Innovation, Diversity, and Market Growth, Center for Talent Innovation, 2013
Muhammad Ali, Isabel Metz, Carol T. Kulik, Retaining a Diverse Workforce: The Impact of Gender-Focused Human Resource Management, Human Resource Management Journal, vol. 25, no. 4 (2015): p. 580–599.
Dana Kabat-Farr, Lilia M. Cortina, Sex-Based Harassment in Employment: New Insights into Gender and Context, Law and Human Behavior, vol. 38, no. 1 (2014): p. 58–72
Lindsey Joyce Chamberlain, Martha Crowley, Daniel Tope, Randy Hodson, Sexual Harassment in Organizational Context, Work and Occupations, vol. 35, no. 3 (2008): p. 262–295.
Cary Funk and Kim Parker, Women in STEM See More Gender Disparities at Work, Especially Those in Computer Jobs, Majority-Male Workplaces, Pew Research Center, January 2018
Anat Drach-Zahavy, Revital Trogan, Opposites Attract or Attack? The Moderating Role of Diversity Climate in the Team Diversity-Interpersonal Aggression Relationship, Journal of Occupational Health Psychology, vol. 18, no. 4 (2013): p. 449–457.
Stephan A. Boehm, David J.G. Dwertmann, Florian Kunze, Björn Michaelis, Kizzy M. Parks, Daniel P. McDonald, Expanding Insights on the Diversity Climate-Performance Link: The Role of Workgroup Discrimination and Group Size, Human Resource Management, vol. 53, no. 3 (2014): p. 379–402.
Stephanie N. Downey, Lisa van der Werff, Kecia M. Thomas, Victoria C. Plaut, The Role of Diversity Practices and Inclusion in Promoting Trust and Employee Engagement, Journal of Applied Social Psychology, vol. 45, no. 1 (2015): p. 35–44.
Society for Human Resource Management, Employee Job Satisfaction and Engagement: The Doors of Opportunity Are Open: Executive Summary(2017): p. 2.
Angela Glover Blackwell, Mark Kramer, Lalitha Vaidyanathan, Lakshmi Iyer, Josh Kirschenbaum, The Competitive Advantage of Racial Equity
Brian S. Lassiter, The ROI of DEI: Still Much Work To Do, Performance Excellence Network, March 2021
Ronadso Hardey, The Role of DEI. Credit Union Times, Credit Union Times, March 2020 Leave a comment below, send me an email, or find me on Twitter. Subscribe To Our Newsletter
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classyfoxdestiny · 3 years
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fiscal deficit: Govt can do better than 6.8% fiscal deficit this year but spending push may be priority: Saugata Bhattacharya
fiscal deficit: Govt can do better than 6.8% fiscal deficit this year but spending push may be priority: Saugata Bhattacharya
For anyone watching Indian financial markets over the last couple of years, a key question that emerges is the achievability of the Centre’s fiscal deficit target. Over the last few years, lower-than-expected tax collections and meagre success in meeting disinvestment targets have compelled the government to upwardly revise the stated budget deficits. The Covid crisis has made the situation more complex. In an interview to ETMarkets.com, Axis Bank’s Chief Economist Saugata Bhattacharya, says he believes that in the current year, the government could actually do better than its projected fiscal deficit target. Nevertheless, in his words, given the magnitude of the crisis, the government is more likely to focus on expenditure rather than take laurels for achieving a lower-than-expected deficit. Edited excerpts:
RBI Governor Das reiterated the central bank’s unequivocal commitment to reviving growth in the recent policy and said that any pre-emptive monetary policy response could damage the nascent economic recovery. However, inflation forecasts have been raised and the size of variable rate reverse repo operations increased. What is your interpretation of the policy? The overall tone of the MPC policy statement, considering multiple nuances, suggests slightly more hawkishness than we had anticipated. Of course, many of these signals lend to various interpretations.
First, our own pre-policy forecast of CPI inflation had been revised up 5.4-5.5%. The actual RBI revision was 5.7%. We had also expected one or two MPC members to take a contra view on the accommodative stance, which proved correct.
Yet, there were other signals on the dovish side. For instance, we had expected the MPC to have changed the syntax about “reviving and sustaining growth” from the previous policy. I had expected that “reviving” word would be dropped but it has been retained. Plus, the increase in the VRRR amount, which had been a market task, in order to absorb the very high surplus liquidity. I had expected that tenor would probably be increased to 28 days instead of being retained at 14 days.
The Governor has also emphasised that MPC is still looking for durable growth while being watchful on inflation. So, there are pluses and minuses on the hawkish and dovish side but overall, a bit more hawkish.
I think the focus going forward will be on managing surplus system liquidity, which is likely to keep increasing already very high levels. This will need measures for both quantity as well as the price of liquidity. Calibrating the price of liquidity will probably now be an adjunct to the increase in the VRRR quantum increase.
You had mentioned that that you were expecting a dissent and that is exactly what happened with Dr Varma. Do you think that there is some degree of concern that our CPI inflation could be getting entrenched in terms of inflation expectations? There are two or three parts to the question.
One part is – what was the discomfort? Dr Varma’s dissent on the stance is recorded. What factors and concerns specifically underlay this contrarian view, will only become evident from the Minutes of the policy.
I am reasonably certain that some MPC members would have been concerned about sticky inflation.
This is in line with a global debate on whether and how much of the inflation is transitory and how much is persistent. All global central banks are grappling with this.
Beyond this, the question is, how much of this high price is likely to become entrenched?
For a central bank, even more than inflation itself, inflation expectations are very important, because that is the first indication that the inflation is getting entrenched.
Results of the latest RBI household inflation expectation survey show that there is a clear upswing in one month ahead inflation expectations , but not as much for three months and one year ahead. It is slightly surprising because I would have expected that the three-month expectation would have risen more, particularly with consumers facing higher prices at petrol pumps, with some other consumer durables prices added to the basket.
I have a feeling that relatively moderate increase in medium term inflation expectations is more because certain food prices have dropped in recent days So that’s some hopeful news, since this saliency suggests that inflation expectations is likely to remain relatively anchored.
However, in terms of actual inflation, our view is in line with RBI forecasts. We are also at 5.7% average inflation for FY22. July CPI Inflation printed at 5.6%, and is likely to remain around these levels in August. Then in Q3, it is likely to come down probably to about 4.8-4.9% but then rise again in Q4.
Note that this path is largely due to base effects, with prices in the corresponding quarters of last year.
But if we look at inflation on a sequential, month on month seasonally adjusted basis, there is a clear trend of persistence in many components. We need to understand the sources of this persistence of inflation. This raises the question of pricing power in consumer markets. Anecdotally, with media reports, demand has been significantly dented by the recurring lockdowns. We monitor data and interviews to get a sense of how MPC and RBI might be thinking, how much is it focussing on the trade-off between growth and inflation going forward.
It is difficult to get our heads around this question. We have analysed this trade-off using corporate data. We are trying to understand how much price has been raised by the upstream companies such as chemicals, metals, ores, minerals, etc. The results are mixed. The hot rolled, cold rolled steel prices have been raised.
But what about downstream companies which are facing end customer sales? For instance, how much has been the price rise in automobiles, ACs, air coolers, refrigerators and washing machines?
On the growth front, there was more optimism from the RBI governor. The GDP growth forecast for the financial year has been left unchanged despite the possibility of a third Covid wave. Do you see growth evolving around the central bank’s trajectory? Our forecast also remains at 9.5%. Now there are a few developments which could lend some upside to the forecast.
First is the way the NSO estimates growth in the initial rounds. The Advance Estimates are constructed with significant inputs from corporate results. The financial results of manufacturing and services companies are adjusted with GDP deflators to arrive at real growth estimates. There are other quantity-based indicators like IIP, freight, etc. which are also inputs.
But a large contribution to the estimates comes from the corporate results. Corporate results in Q1 seem to be quite robust. Based on this, there might be an upside to this estimate of growth. Obviously, during the second wave, some segments would have been impacted. But signs from high-frequency indicators we track suggest that recovery has been better and deeper than what we had initially estimated.
Automobile sales and numbers on the consumer durables – suggest demand resilience. However, having said that, the extent of revival on the ground across a wider swathe of smaller companies is an emerging concern. We are grappling with the degree of economic scarring from the pandemic, including a potential drawdown of savings, permanent reduction in incomes, etc. That is something which bears deeper investigation.
Do you see any potential pressure on the Indian currency because of a likely widening of the current account this year? Would RBI be faced with a tricky situation in terms of sterilisation given that liquidity is already at a huge surplus? Our present forecast for the BoP surplus – the Current Account plus the Capital Account – for FY22 is $60 billion. Of which, we estimate about $18-19 billion to have been in Q1. The remaining $40 billion will be spread over the next 2 quarters. Of course, there are a lot of things which can change this forecast.
The BoP surplus itself, even factoring in all the other things which can change, is likely to provide an appreciating bias to the rupee. As part of the domestic liquidity management we had discussed earlier, managing the effects of these flows on macroeconomic variables will be challenging. Managing the Rupee’s volatility is one; There will be two main opposing pressures on the rupee.
First, the currency will be influenced by the US dollar moves. Given the statements from the US Federal Reserve, they are likely to start normalising earlier than later, and much ahead of the European Central Bank. That will lead to some strengthening of the dollar which will result in a depreciating bias for the rupee.
Of course, this is contingent on the BoP numbers, and this is important. There are many unknowns – IPOs lined up, large disinvestments, investor response to the annulment of the Retrospective Act, bond index inclusion, etc – which could potentially result in large inflows.
Overall, my sense is that the rupee will probably remain in a 73-75/$1 band and not move beyond that, because there are other problems that could come in forward rates etc if RBI tries to intervene in the forwards market.
The second part of the question was the impact on domestic liquidity and how is the RBI going to manage this?
As I mentioned before, liquidity management will be key in determining the path and stance of accommodation in monetary policy as we go forward. Other than flows that we are anticipating, there are also other factors that would need to be considered.
In the short-term, the government balances with the RBI (especially because the government has done an excellent job in taking in taxes) will probably be spent and that will add to liquidity coming into the system.
Cash outgo from the system, the currency in circulation, was fairly high last year and that helped in managing the excess liquidity in the system. But this year, the outflows in CIC have been relatively muted and that is hence putting some pressure on the amount of excess liquidity which is exactly the reason behind the increase in VRRR amounts.
My sense is that the VRRR amounts may have to be increased even further going ahead, particularly because of what we are sensing on the liquidity situation. So RBI will likely need to target multiple objectives; not just the macro picture on growth and inflation but also financial stability, currency, forward rates, liquidity etc, it will be a fine balancing act, but they have shown their capability over the last couple of years on this in being ahead of the curve, particularly in the use of liquidity instruments.
Do you have any timeline in mind as to when the RBI would start the process of hiking the reverse repo rate? I do not think MPC will start hiking policy rates in the October policy, or even December. They are not going to do that because inter alia, an implicit determinant of continuing accommodative stance will depend on, and probably be linked to, the level and pace of vaccination, which is the only state variable that policymakers can control.
As and when the vaccinations move towards Rs 75-80 crore doses, there will be some comfort that a public health crisis might not re-emerge, given what we are seeing with the Delta variant in other parts of the world. Hence, generate confidence on durability of growth recovery.
The other economic variables are more exogenous. Be it inflation, funds flows, etc, much of those things are relatively exogenous to their control, the only thing that policymakers, public health policy particularly, can control is vaccination.
Of course, the major explicit driver, given the MPC mandate, will be inflation. Crude oil is a very big variable to watch because that has an inordinate impact on Indian inflation, going by past experience and even what we are seeing now. So how crude prices evolve, be it in the 65 dollar per barrel range or the 75 dollar per barrel range, will have a large part in MPC and RBI policy actions.
Coming to the growth numbers, IIP, PMIs, diesel consumption, E-Way bills, mobility, freight, electricity consumption, MNREGA work demands and other high frequency indicators will have a bearing on policy.
The policy normalisation process will be very gradual and calibrated, starting, as we had discussed, with the price and quantity of liquidity, and only then to the first reverse repo rate hike. My own sense is that the reverse repo hike is probably going to be a Q4 or later phenomenon. RBI will not do that initially.
Markets are already looking at rates and signals from bond auction actions of RBI, the initial indirect markers of a beginning of normalisation. We might see a gradual creep up on the 10-year benchmark yields, as well as on the shorter-term rates etc .
In the policy the governor said that the market should take it as a sign of confidence that the government has dipped into its cash balance when it comes to the GST shortfall. Does that give confidence that this year, we may not see any extra borrowing? Secondly, we saw that the tax projections in the budget were conservative and so far, the GST run rate seems to be okay. Do you think that the 6.8% fiscal deficit target is going to be met? Yes, I think the 6.8% deficit target is likely to be met. In fact, I’m quite sure of it.
The Govt could probably even better it, but I have a feeling they will not and instead choose to spend any additional revenues to support the revival process. I am also fairly confident that they are not going to overshoot their borrowing target. The centre has been communicating this repeatedly, they are not going to overshoot.
They are going to manage within target and given the run rate that we have seen from Q1 in corporate taxes, GST, personal income tax etc, particularly on the corporate tax front, the government will try to maintain the momentum on tax revenue collections. A strong economic recovery will help.
Tax collections, particularly corporate taxes and GST are likely to be much higher than they projected because of the conservative estimates in the Budget. The corporate tax growth target was about 22-23%; so annual realisations likely to be beyond that.
GST collections with growth revival, goods movement and GST from imports is likely to be fairly good. Needless to say, we will be closely watching the disinvestment process since the target is a significant budgeted amount. The government is emphatically communicating that processes have been put in place for expediting strategic sales, and many large CPSEs are planned to be sold in this fiscal.
If the ambitious LIC IPO goes through, then they are pretty much done. But disinvestment is not just Budget targets. This will be a big signal on industrial and competitiveness policy priorities of Govt. To sum up, my sense is under any circumstances, they will not breach the 6.8% number.
There are exogenous factors – domestic and global – which could reverse these policy advances once again, but the probability is very, very small for something like that to happen.
But this is the Centre that I am talking about.
The fiscal situation of the states is somewhat more concerning, at this point in time . Of course, the robust central fiscal situation will enable them to transfer more to the states which will help.
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