Tumgik
#( literally everything about him is centered around luck and likelihood )
endexe · 3 years
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Zero have the MOST kill count of the Arcane, even more so than the leader themself, the World, but the thing is, ninety percent of them were accidental and that’s what makes him so much more dangerous and terrifying because while a person would be fully and consciously aware of their actions and usually know the consequences of them, Zero himself doesn’t even know anything at all but his intention that is innocent of what he’s doing that can or will influence others that results of them dying. If he was being interrogated about someone who died because of him, he will usually literally have no clue what they’re talking about and gets worked up.
He had killed some people by simply accidentally poisoning them through their food or drinks to a more complex situation like accidentally causing an entire building to collapse because of that one little thing that happened to him, such as tripping himself over a toy, that killed over a hundred of residents. One thing that hits is that almost everyone in the Arcane and some people outside of it DOES make him think and feel like he did kill all of those people on purpose when he never intended to. This doesn’t stop him from being outgoing and wanting to be friends with literally everyone he meets because he’s always craving for relationships to subdue his pure loneliness and knows that most of those he interacts with will die eventually, but in the end, he would come to accept the “ fact “ that he did kill those people and was at massive fault.
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starryknight09 · 3 years
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It’s cold in space
Febuwhump Day 19: sleep deprivation
Read on AO3.
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The stars shone brightly twinkling outside the windows of the Benatar.  More stars than Peter could even imagine, some coalescing to form beautiful swirls that danced together, becoming denser and brighter in the center as they created galaxies so close it was like he could almost reach out and touch them.  Great nebulas composed of luminescent dust and other bright orbs in shades of red and green and orange were scattered as far as the eye could see.  Peter knew the colorful spots were planets.  Other worlds, maybe some with alien life.  Beings he had no idea even existed a month ago.  And now he’d fought alongside some of them.  Watched them die.
He shivered thinking about the disaster on Titan.  The way the Guardians had faded away into nothing.  Instead of falling into a downward spiral ruminating over it again, he focused on the engine humming beneath him, the only sound in the middle of the night as everyone else slept.  Well, as Tony and Nebula slept.  The only other two who had survived Titan.  For a moment Peter had been worried he’d been about to turn to dust like the others, his spider sense screaming at him as he clung desperately to Mr. Stark, too afraid to care that he was acting like the kid he was.  But it’d passed, and in the end, he’d been left standing stranded on an alien planet along with Mr. Stark.  And Nebula.  Thank god for her or he had no clue what they would’ve done.  She’d led them to Quill’s ship and they’d started the journey back to Earth.
Any other time he would’ve been freaking out in excitement over being in space, but if Thanos hadn’t been enough to put a damper on the mood, then the whole limping home while slowly running out of food, water, and air thing had definitely done it.  He brought his knees up to his chest and hugged them as another shiver ran through him.  They’d been traveling for two weeks and no matter what they’d tried, they hadn’t been able to make the engines to go any faster.  At the rate they were going, there was no way they’d make it home before the oxygen ran out.  It put the constant pangs in his gut into perspective.  It didn’t matter that he was slowly starving.  He’d suffocate long before the lack of food killed him.
Mr. Stark had no idea Peter had worked it all out.  That this entire trip was a doomed farce.  Usually he’d be mad at his mentor for keeping something like this from him, but this time he understood.  Mr. Stark still smiled and joked and acted like everything was fine.  And Peter let him, because he didn’t want to talk about it either.  Didn’t want to admit he knew, because admitting it would make it real, and then he’d have to face it.  So for now, he just tried not to think about it even as the knowledge gnawed incessantly at the back of his mind.
Maybe it’d be for the best.  If he died here, he’d never have to face the possibility that May might have been in the fifty percent of the population that’d been dusted.  Then again, maybe she was alive, his mind always whispered traitorously.  After all, there was an equal chance that she was still there, waiting for him.  Whenever he imagined making it home, which had been happening less and less, he clung to that likelihood instead.  It was a nice dream.
In the beginning he really had tried to hold onto the hope that maybe they’d make it.  Maybe they’d somehow figure something out or someone would come save them.  But as the days had passed, his hope had faded, along with the warmth in the cabin.  He knew they weren’t going to make it home.  At least he had the small comfort of knowing how he was going to die.  Most people didn’t get that.  And he had some time to come to terms with it.  A lot of people didn’t get that either.  And overall, running out of oxygen wasn’t such a bad way to go.  It’d be relatively painless.  Like falling asleep.
His teeth chattered.  They’d siphoned as much power as possible from every possible system into the engines, including the environmental systems, which meant Peter had been absolutely miserable the past few days. He’d hidden it from Mr. Stark.  It hadn’t been so bad during the day when he had things to do to distract him, but the nights were nearly unbearable.  He’d tried layering Quill’s clothes that Nebula had given him and curling up under the threadbare quilt but it hadn’t helped.  He’d spent the last couple nights miserable, shaking with cold and barely sleeping, drifting in and out.  But tonight he couldn’t take it anymore, so he’d tiptoed out of his room to retreat to one of the chairs at the front of the ship.  At least he couldn’t complain about the view.  It was to die for.  He snorted and let out short laugh.  It really was.  
“Care to share with the class what’s so funny?” Mr. Stark’s question broke the silence.
Peter jumped.  He hadn’t heard the other man sneak up on him.  He couldn’t remember the last time that had happened, and he didn’t think it was a good thing, but he didn’t have the energy to examine that train of thought much further.
“So?” Mr. Stark prompted.
Oh right.  He wanted to know what Peter had found funny.  Peter knew he should lie, but the lack of sleep had eroded his filter and he was tired, oh so tired, of silently carrying the burden of their fate alone.
“I was thinking the view’s to die for.” He gestured out at the stars.  “Literally.”  He smiled and let out another borderline hysterical laugh.
Mr. Stark’s face crumpled and Peter instantly regretted being so honest.
“Sorry.”
Mr. Stark sighed as he stepped forward to drop a hand on his shoulder.  “So you know.”
“Of course I know.” He said.  “You’re the one always saying how smart I am.  You really didn’t think I’d figure it out?”
“I’d hoped you wouldn’t.” Mr. Stark said.  “But you’re right.  I should’ve known better.”
Peter sighed, staring out at the stars.  “It doesn’t matter.  Knowing doesn’t change anything.”
Mr. Stark hummed and followed his gaze out at the stars.  “It is a hell of a view.”
“Yeah.  I suppose there are worse places to die.” Peter whispered.
Mr. Stark’s head bent forward, looking as if the words had caused him physical pain.  Maybe they had.  The gash in his side still hadn’t healed, and although he wasn’t in any danger of dying from it, it wasn’t a minor wound.
“Don’t lose hope yet kid.” Mr. Stark squeezed his shoulder.
Peter looked up at him and frowned.  He’d never considered his mentor an overly optimistic person.
“It’s not over until it’s over.” Mr. Stark continued.  “I’ve been in my fair share of tight binds and somehow I always seem to come out on top.”
��Worse than this?” Peter arched an eyebrow at him.
Mr. Stark considered it for a few seconds before nodding.  “Maybe not worse, but some just as bad.  And here I am, still kicking.”
Peter gave him a wan smile.  “That’s comforting.”
Mr. Stark nodded.  “It is.”
Peter wished he could find some solace in his mentor’s words, but he couldn’t.  Their situation seemed fairly hopeless unless some kind of miracle occurred, and after the luck he’d had in his life, Peter no longer put any stock in miracles.
“So, is that why you’re out here?” Mr. Stark asked when Peter didn’t pick up the conversation again.  “The view?”
He shrugged.  “I couldn’t sleep.”
“I know the beds aren’t the most comfortable but—”
“That’s not why.” Peter shook his head, although it was more than a little weird to be sleeping in a dead man’s bed.
“Ok, then what’s the deal?”
“It’s too cold.” He admitted.
Mr. Stark stared at him like he didn’t understand.
“After I got my powers, I noticed I was more sensitive to temperature.” He explained with a shrug.  “I get cold or hot really easily compared to before.  Ever since we diverted the environmental system’s power to the engines, I haven’t really been able to sleep.”
“That was three days ago.”
“Yeah.”
“And you’re just mentioning this now?”
“It’s not like it matters.  You can’t do anything about it.  The engines need all the power we can give them.”
“Kid.” Mr. Stark sighed, sounding put out.  “We could’ve thought of something else.”
Peter scoffed.  “Like what?  I’m pretty sure I’ve thought of everything.” He gestured to all the layers of clothes he had on.
“Well I don’t think you have, because I have an idea.”
“Really?” Peter didn’t even care if Mr. Stark had a solution he hadn’t thought of.  He just wanted to be able to sleep.  Which in retrospect seemed silly since pretty soon he’d be dead and he’d get all the sleep he wanted.  But he couldn’t help it.  While still alive, his body craved rest.
“Really.  Come on.” Mr. Stark gave his head a sideways jerk to indicate they should go.  Peter uncurled from the chair and stood, allowing the other man to guide him back down the corridor toward their rooms, but instead of leading him back to Quill’s room, Mr. Stark led him to the room where he’d been staying.
Peter stopped up short just past the threshold, not understanding.
“Get in kid.” Mr. Stark said, pointing to the bed.
Peter tried to hide his disappointment but did as his mentor said.  If Mr. Stark thought his bed was warmer than he owed it to him to at least try it even though he didn't think it would work.  He realized the mistake of his assumption a second later when Mr. Stark crawled in the other side of the bed.
“Um what are you doing?” He asked with wide eyes.  The bed wasn’t tiny, but it was smaller than a queen size.  Two adults sharing would be more than a little crowded.
“Conserving body heat.” Mr. Stark explained as he rolled Peter over, wrapped his arms around him, and pulled the covers up over both of them.
Peter’s cheeks flushed.  In the years he’d known Mr. Stark, they’d definitely gotten closer and he was almost starting to view him as a sort of father figure, but he had no idea what the man thought of him.  Mr. Stark still avoided showing emotion or affection whenever possible, so this was definitely uncharted territory.
“Uh I didn’t think we were there yet.” He joked, trying desperately to dispel the extreme awkwardness that’d befallen him.
“Don’t make it weird.” Mr. Stark ordered.
“Ok.” He stared at the opposite wall wondering if it wouldn’t be lack of oxygen after all, but absolute mortification, that would kill him.
“Are you still cold?” Mr. Stark asked after a few long minutes had passed.
Surprisingly, he wasn’t.  The incessant shivering had dissipated.  It was the first time in days that he wasn’t freezing.
“Yeah.” He sighed in relief.
“Good.” Mr. Stark let out his own sigh and it tickled Peter’s hair.  “Then go to sleep.  And agree to never speak of this.”
“Right.  Of course.  Never.” He readily agreed before closing his eyes, and even though they were probably still going to die, he felt oddly safe at the moment, and that feeling combined with the fact that he was no longer uncomfortably cold, let sleep come easily.
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Lynn 71
Lynn was surprisingly close to on time today, so she invited me and offered me a perrier strawberry sparkling water. I said sure and I asked her how Florida was. She said it was too cold for her liking and she laughed and said that every year that they go she complains and says we are never going back here for spring break because they went to Destin and it wasn’t really hot out. She said she doesn’t love the beach when it’s cold. I said she actually looked Tanner and she laughed and was like well that might be windburn then but I did lay out on the last day so maybe I slightly got some color on them. I said I will be going to Florida today and she said that’s right for the conference. She asked how I’m feeling about that. I said anxious and I will be staying with my parents. She asked why and I explained that they moved their vacation to match when I will be there and that they said they would pay for the hotels which would save me a couple hundred dollars so it felt like there wasn’t really a good reason not to. She asked my husband thinks and I said he was kind of like well good luck. I explained how we actually had a really good talk this weekend about both of our parents and that I think we have both grown in the fact that we don’t really defend our parents behavior is anymore. We more openly talk about what things they do that are toxic and unhealthy. Lynn said she agreed and it had sounded like we had grown in that area. I said he had gotten on my nerves yesterday because I had hugged him and told him that I was getting nervous at these conferences and he was kind of like you’ll be fine and then started doing annoying things like drumming on my back or pulling on my bra strap to snap it. I also told her about my husband learning French and I was surprised she said that was really cute. She explained how it sounded like the main anxiety around the conference was related to my parents and thought I should consider taking some time away from them. I said I think what gets me the most anxiety about the conference is just all of the downtime where I will have to be around other people and try to network and be around them at breakfast. Lynn and I basically ended up laughing as she talked about how she hates having to talk to people at conferences, and we both agreed that there are always so many weird people and she was like I never really make friends at these things and she said that she made a friend ones and they actually did exchange phone numbers but she lives all the way in Louisiana so I never really talk or anything, but outside of that she doesn’t really make any effort to talk to people and at the last conference she went to, she said that she sat down next to somebody and they had actually gotten up and moved and she was like what the heck whatever you don’t want to sit next to me because I’m from Tennessee? Whatever don’t care. She said the lady was from New Jersey and had gotten up and literally change seats and she was like whatever rude. She said at the other conference that she was that there was this lady who had acted super desperate and most like anyone want to go to lunch anyone want to go to lunch and Lynn felt bad for her and agreed to get lunch with her and she was like I mean she was nice but I would have much rather just gone and eaten by myself LOL. Lynn said she always skip the networking things like over breakfast and was like I mean I value my sleep, therefore I’m always just like dang it I missed the networking oh well. I explained that I really don’t need to bother with networking at this type of a conference because realistically it’s a bunch of treatment centers trying to encourage me to send people to their treatment centers. The one treatment center that’s near me I already know about and everything else is fairly far away. The ones that are closer I already know and the likelihood of my people wanting to go across the country isn’t super high, especially just because I networked with someone. I was like my big fear is just that I don’t want to be like that lady that you just described even though I know that I would never ask a bunch people to lunch and Lynn was like exactly you would never be like that so you’re already contradicting yourself and I was like well no I would definitely never ask a group of people to lunch, but I don’t want to be that one loser by themselves Who everyone feels bad for. Lynn was like first of all no one is going to feel bad for you they probably wouldn’t even notice and second of all from the past to conferences you’ve been to you you made a close friend at both of them so realistically probably will make a friend and if not, that’s probably the normal and maybe you need to lower your expectations. Lynn said that it helps her to lower her expectations and go in assuming that she is not trying to make long-term friends with anybody and realistically she thinks I’m picking up on all of the anxious energy of the room where everyone is feeling somewhat uncomfortable and not knowing people. She said anytime there’s a local conference she always makes her friend there with her because she doesn’t want to have to deal with talking to people she doesn’t now. I laughed because I relate and I always want friends to go to things like this with me too. She pointed out that if I were to leave at any point no one is really going to think anything of it, they might assume that I’m going to meet my husband for lunch or something like that and I was like well the hard thing is it’s an all day conference and since I’m working on it I will kind of be expected to be there for the breakfast and the lunches and I’ll have to sit at the tables and she was kind of just like well then fake it. She was like you’re good at that, just fake a few conversations here and there. I agreed and said that I would do that. She said that she really liked my vest and I said thank you. She mentioned parental attachment and now I can’t really even remember why but she said to how kids are attached to their parents even when they aren’t good parent and I was like yeah like Harlows monkeys and she was like I don’t know what that is and I was like wait really and she was like ask any social worker any of these psychological studies they never know any of it and I was like OK but I’m not a psychologist and I knew it LOL and she was like well what is it and I explained it and why I think it’s really helpful for helping people to understand why it’s normal that they feel attached to their parents even when they aren’t healthy, and she was like yeah that actually is really helpful and she asked me for the name of it again and I said I will send it to you so you can read up on it. She said OK great. We talked a little bit more about conferences in general and our training in MDR and I said that it honestly pisses me off when there is required readings and people don’t actually read. She said oh yeah me too and I was like like if you don’t read fine I don’t care but don’t raise your hand and ask a stupid question that you would know the answer to if you had done the assigned reading. She said she can see why that definitely drives me nuts and she said it annoys her too and I was like did you do the reading for the training and she laughed and said yes but she’s a book skimmer so she didn’t necessarily read it cover to cover like I did.
She ask if I have any insight this week about some of the stuff that we have been working on and I said not necessarily other then I’ve just been noticing that I am legitimately a workaholic and it’s something that I’ve always kind of joked about but I realize the other day when my coworker pointed it out with me working on Sunday just how often I really am working and how last night I got home at 8:30 and I had worked a 12 hour day with no breaks and honestly this conversation did not go like I had anticipated it would. Basically Lynn said that in my age group a lot of people are working a lot and it sounds like my working so much is a part of my perfectionism, and I tried explaining that it doesn’t feel like perfectionism because I don’t think of any point of working as being perfect or this correct standard and I’ve never had workaholism modeled for me it just really feels like this feeling of I should be working and I don’t deserve a break and she pretty much said that with perfectionism like am I willing to make those behavioral changes and like commit to taking a day off or something and then I started tearing up and crying and was like no it just feels like I can’t like literally thinking about the idea of cutting back my work makes my heart Grace and makes me feel completely out of control. She pointed out that sometimes you have to change the behaviors to change the feelings and that working a lot and perfectionism for me seem to be this sort of obsessive-compulsive part of my personality and she thinks that I need to change the behaviors and then deal with the feelings and I was like honestly I feel like it’s damned if you do damned if you don’t because if I work all the time then I feel terrible and I’m not taking care of myself but if I cut back then I feel guilty and anxious and awful, and I would rather feel the awful anxious that comes with overworking myself to death because at least it’s predictable and brings in money. I explained how I never buy myself things and recently I’ve gotten a little better about it but in general I always save my money and the idea of fun really makes me anxious and I don’t know how to have fun and I straight up asked her how do I stop feeling like I don’t deserve to have fun and she pretty much just stuck to her response and feeling like I need to just change what I am doing and actually make myself take breaks or you know not work on Sundays or not work for part of Sunday or do something like that. She said at some point like I need to decide that I want to change my perfectionism otherwise it won’t change. I was like I want to change the perfection of them but it just feels like I can’t like I don’t want to stay this busy. She pointed out that things may change once I have kids and have I thought about that and I was like well yeah I’ve thought about it and I think I always thought you know once I have kids I will slow down and it will be easy but lately I’ve realized even just the thought of cutting back and gives me so much anxiety so I don’t know. She said things may change once I actually have the kids and it will be easier, or that I may just be a workaholic and will hire a nanny to live in my house and take care of the kids and she explained how she has a friend who’s a very successful lawyer who did that and had the nanny with the kids and she was able to continue being a workaholic and she just really thrived in being a workaholic and I was like OK but I’m not thriving I’m actually kind of miserable and don’t want to stay this way. I told her that I’m working somewhere between 25 and 30 hours a week in private practice on top of an already full-time job and I know that a lot of people work a lot but 70 hours is excessive and I realize that. She asked me how my husband feels about it and I was like he’s not OK with it and wants me to cut back. Which she was like but you’re not willing to do that right? And I was like I mean I want to but no like so she was like well what would you tell a perfectionist client and I was like I don’t know I guess deal with where the perfectionism is coming from and try to get them to make small changes so I guess somebody like me who is really roll conscientious using that to my advantage in getting them to make promises. She was like so if I tell you something you’ll be like OK I’m gonna do it because I told Lyn I would and I was like yeah exactly and she was like OK so if I say no more working on Sunday and I was like now that just gave me a bunch of anxiety because that would mean that I would need to work on Friday night or Saturday and what if I don’t want to work on Saturday and I want to change it up and do it on Sunday or what if I had something to do or that just feels too limiting and I was like so I wouldn’t commit to that promise and she was like so basically you are only going to except certain promises and I was like yeah because if I commit to something then I’m going to follow through with that and I won’t break that promise. So I won’t commit to something that I don’t want to actually agreed to doing because I value honesty and keeping my word. She asked where I’m at with the target that we have been working on and I was like which target and she started flipping through and pointing out that she has perfectionism written on multiple pages and was like with your grandma and I was like I don’t think that was what we are working on at this point and she was like well maybe we need to determine the target so what about all of this actually bothers you and then I started tearing up again and I was like I mean I just want to feel OK as I am which I think was kind of what we are working on and she was like yeah and I was like I just want to feel like I’m good enough and don’t have to feel like I’m proving my worth because I’m not good enough and I was like and I think part of why I work so much is because I’m always striving to achieve this imaginary goal of being good enough and it feels like it never matters how many achievements I have, it never feels like enough. She was like well what is it that you do you want and I was like I mean intellectually like I do know that my accomplishments are good enough but I don’t mean with what I’m doing I mean with how I feel about myself I want to feel like I’m going enough as a person and don’t need accomplishments to prove that.
She was like well maybe we need to change up our approach and so she was like have we done any motivational future templates with EMDR and I was like no and she was like OK well what would be different if you were feeling good enough and I was like I don’t know I just want to feel OK with mediocrity and she was like well what is mediocrity to you and I was like honestly working normal hours like a normal person and I don’t know basic things like actually scheduling myself a lunch break and actually coming home at a decent enough hours that I can actually cook dinner instead of getting home at 9 o'clock at night and feeling like there’s no time so I end up eating shit or coming home at a decent enough hour to actually go to the gym and not for necessarily weight-loss reasons which is because I know it’s healthy and I know my thyroid is off and my vitamin D is low and I still don’t feel great and I’m not taking care of myself and I’m always exhausted and so I guess it’s more of like practical things like I would like to feel like my schedule allows for me to actually take care of myself and not feel like I have to work every Friday night late like maybe I could actually schedule time to hang out with friends without feeling guilty. She was like what would happen if you took a day off and then I started tearing up again and I was like I don’t know I just can’t. She was like well maybe we would just kind of target and picture or you doing something like reading up for fun book or, which she reminded me that I still have her back and I was like I’m going to read it and finish it on the airplane tonight and I’ll bring it back next week and she was like OK thanks I’m going to read through it again, or she was like taking a walk or doing something and then we target that but then there has to be that piece where we deal with the resistance and you actually make The changes with your behavior and I was like I mean in theory that sounds great it’s just really hard to do because even my thinking about that I’m like oh well I could take a walk but then I don’t deserve to skip working for the sake of walking because I could always walk at a different time and I just feel like I don’t deserve that free time. She pointed out that some people are just perfectionist and that’s their personality type and basically the take away message was that if I want to change things I need to actually change things and it’s all on me I need to just do it. I explained that I understand but like honestly I feel like shit working so much and I don’t want to continue being this way I just don’t know how to change it. Honestly it all just felt super minimizing and out like this was something as simple as just work or don’t work and she was like well with the EMD are we just keep coming back to this kind of stuck point where we hit a wall with perfectionism so maybe we need to attack it from a different angle. She was like you can get mad at me and hate me for it and I was like Lynn I don’t hate you and I’m not mad at you I’m sorry like I don’t mean to be difficult it just really feels like I can’t implement that kind of changed and she was like I know that there’s a trade off with being a perfectionist and one of the trade-offs is that you are very successful while being a workaholic.
I told her that I just don’t want to be 40 years old and look back at my life and feel like all I ever did was bust my ass working and never really lived and never spend time is connecting with people and building friendships. I explained that I already feel like I’m old even though I know everyone says that I’m not but the days pass so quickly and I feel like I’m not really living. She pointed out that she knows letting go of the perfectionism is really hard and asked if I had read any books on it and I was like no and she was like well there’s a ton of books on it because it is really hard to let go of and I can tell it’s hard for you and brings up a lot because you were tearing up several times just thinking about it and I was like yeah thanks for reminding me and she was like well it’s true. I was like I know I just wish I could change how I feel. Lynn asked when I am flying out and I said tonight. She said that her advice to me is to take some time to be alone. My heart started racing and she was like and you can tell yourself that Lynn said to do that so get mad at me instead of yourself, but it’s OK to take some time after the conference to go do something. I’m sure she could tell that the idea of doing that made me uncomfortable because I know my parents would be pissed even if I did lion say the conference was going late, and she was like if your parents were reasonable people you wouldn’t have to lie. But they’re not reasonable therefore you have to lie. She was like there’s really good shopping there so if you like shopping go shopping. She told me to go to some outlets and get flip-flops and I was like OK maybe. Or she said to go to Disney World and I was like lamb isn’t that super expensive and she was like well yeah but a lot of times if you are at a conference they will do half price tickets for the late afternoon or evening if you show proof that you are at a conference so you might pay 40 bucks but hey you get to go to Disney World. I said that I haven’t been since I was a kid and my husband hasn’t been at all but I’m sure he will want to go when Star Wars world is done. She got super super excited which surprised me like giddy like a little kid saying how she can’t wait for Star Wars to open and that she brought up going as soon as it open but her son didn’t want her to go without him because he really wants to go and she was kind of like I don’t really care you’ll be 20 I’m going to go when it opens LOL. She said she didn’t go to Disney World until after she had kids and they still go because they all love it herself and her has been included. She said Disney World is only fun as a kid if you have fun parents and I just kind of laughed because I knew what she meant. I told her about how my parents basically already have things planned for me, like with my aunt and uncle coming over and my other uncle on my mom’s best friend from high school and how I had gotten upset the other night because my mom wrote love you sweetie to my aunt and how awkward and anxious that makes me because she’s never done that to me or called me sweetie and just the thought of her doing that makes me feel uncomfortable because it would be so weird and foreign and Lynn was basically like now would be a great time to practice some of what you were learning about boundaries. I was like yeah maybe we will see how it goes. She said she really thinks I should take some time for myself before going to be with them. She took out her book and said that we scheduled for next week already so let’s schedule for the following week, and then I paid. She asked when we want kids and I said idk and it depends on my husband and she was like oh that's right it took my husband longer to be ready too. I said maybe when we have a house we will be ready and said how my husband sent pictures of baby Halloween costumes so who knows. She wished me luck at the conference and said she would be thinking of me and sending positive vibes. And I said I appreciated that and I headed out.
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flauntpage · 6 years
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The Outlet Pass: Charlotte's Tailspin, Cavs Trade Targets, and NBA What-Ifs
1. Can Charlotte Turn Things Around?
The Charlotte Hornets are stuck in an injury-induced tailspin. They’ve dropped eight of their last 10 games, including two straight at home against the Los Angeles Lakers and Chicago Bulls. Their head coach is out with a health issue (get well soon, Steve Clifford) and they’re four games back of a playoff spot, with four teams—the Orlando Magic, New York Knicks, Miami Heat, and Brooklyn Nets—standing in their way.
At one point last week they went to their bench and I literally didn’t know the first names of two players on the court. Michael Carter-Williams is making Marcus Smart look like Glen Rice and Malik Monk is barely in the rotation while Donovan Mitchell (the next guard selected) is averaging 27.2 points per game in December.
Charlotte's starting five is fine when everybody’s healthy but they've only played Kemba Walker, Nicolas Batum, Marvin Williams, Dwight Howard, and Jeremy Lamb together for seven minutes all season. Normally, they are stuck with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist on the floor, dragging the offense down. Just look at how disrespectful the Thunder are to MKG in the play below.
Kidd-Gilchrist isn’t fooling anyone from deep, but he’s now a modestly-reliable safety valve from 15 feet and in. The Hornets are rushing to execute a 2-for-1 on this particular sequence, but it’s still jarring to see an NBA starter find himself SO open and not come close to touching the ball.
Their primary Batum + Bench unit was doing pretty well before Cody Zeller had knee surgery, though, partially because Lamb was in it. When Dwayne Bacon replaces Kidd-Gilchrist in the starting lineup they destroy people.
Ultimately, it all comes down to the Hornets just not being very good when Walker isn’t in the game. According to Cleaning the Glass, Charlotte is 22.1 points per 100 possessions better with Walker on the floor. Even if Batum is the de-facto primary ball-handler, their offense is stagnant and averages less than one point per possession. That’s so bad, but everything goes to hell when they’re both out. (The starting five is okay, but not crushing opponents enough to justify heavy minutes together while the bench can’t fend for itself.)
In what almost felt like season-saving victory against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday night, interim head coach Stephen Silas stretched Walker and Lamb’s playing time into a 15.5-minute stint to open the second half. In his eyes, Charlotte’s bench was a Rob Zombie-directed blood bath. Slaughter would commence the second he switched up his backcourt.
Silas knew Charlotte needed that game. For extending his starters, he was rewarded with ridiculous, completely unsustainable shot making against a defense that sorely missed Andre Roberson (I think Alex Abrines just fouled another three-point shooter). But a win is a win is a win.
With their upcoming schedule providing zero seconds to exhale, the Hornets will either get healthy, tinker with the rotation and stop their ship from sinking, or face some difficult questions before the trade deadline. (‘Does anyone want the $76 million left on Batum’s contract? How about the $29 million owed to Marvin Williams?’ or, ‘Can we please for the love of God find a backup point guard?’)
Barring a significant transaction, next year’s roster will look about the same as this one, plus whoever they get in the draft. But whether or not this team views itself as a buyer or a seller is another relevant discussion. The Hornets have enough talent to make the playoffs and even win a few games once they get in (or even an entire series if they can somehow grab the sixth seed).
Rebuilding won’t be easy with this cap sheet, and Walker is smack dab in the middle of his prime. If Monk doesn’t make rapid progress from here on out, do they think about dealing him and/or their first-round pick in the 2018 draft for immediate help? Injuries stink and so does bad luck, but the Hornets aren’t as rudderless as they currently feel. We’ll know even more about the direction they should head as the next couple months unfold.
2. This Year’s NBA What-Ifs Are Pretty Great
This season has been filled with a handful of shocking developments. After a possible career-altering injury to their best all-around player, the Boston Celtics are very good. With their entire roster 100 percent healthy (relatively speaking), the Oklahoma City Thunder are not very good. The Indiana Pacers are good. The Miami Heat are bad. The Portland Trail Blazers are Stranger Things Season 3.
Based on reports and rumors from various points throughout the offseason, here’s a semi-educated look at how things might look today had a few key moves gone down a bit differently.
A. Carmelo Anthony is traded to the Portland Trail Blazers
For the sake of argument, let’s just say Portland gave up Evan Turner, Mo Harkless, and a future first-round pick. So, in all likelihood, the Blazers would start Melo at the three, Al-Farouq Aminu at the four, and Jusif Nurkic at center. That starting five looks offensively unstoppable on paper, but, like, so does Oklahoma City's. Make this trade and what happens to Portland's top-five defense? Are they still rebounding this well? Do they score at will or does Anthony further impede what’s been an unusually static offense?
Photo by Joseph Weiser-USA TODAY Sports
In addition to transforming into a gigantic whoopee cushion whenever he's around the basket—Melo’s days of getting to the free-throw line are, at 33 years old, understandably dunzo—his assist to usage ratio ranks in the ninth percentile at his position. Even though the percentage of his shots that are unassisted hasn’t been this low since he was with the Denver Nuggets (which feels 7,000 years ago), he still loves long twos and there are defiant insecurities related to how he’s approached the seasons' first couple months. His stubbornness has contributed to the league’s most glaring disappointment, and he’s shooting 37.6 percent from the floor over the Thunder's last 10 games.
Would things be different in Portland? Would Anthony play better off C.J. McCollum and Damian Lillard, next to role players who won’t clog the floor and know how to pass? The stakes would be pretty low; Portland would remain unable to circumvent its own flaws and triumphantly battle through a ruthless playoff bracket. But they might be incrementally better than they are now, guaranteed a spot in the postseason, with pleasant vibes carrying them forward.
The other key side effect, assuming every other move happens as it has, is that Enes Kanter and Doug McDermott would still be on the Thunder instead of enjoying Westbrook-free serenity in midtown Manhattan. How would Anthony being in Portland affect Paul George in Oklahoma? Besides more shot opportunities, it’s hard to say. Assuming Billy Donovan chose to stagger his two best players, George would have more time on units that’d call for him to be one of the dozen best players in the world. The team's defense might be even better than it already is.
Westbrook could also spend more time going Full Westbrook, even though Full Westbrook as we knew it last year might be a permanent thing of the past.
B. Gordon Hayward signs with the Miami Heat
Would Kyrie Irving express interest in re-signing with the Boston Celtics if Hayward chose a different team, or were Al Horford’s harmonious style, stable ownership, and Brad Stevens' genius already enough? If not, the Celtics would likely be in the middle of the Eastern Conference with Marcus Smart starting at point guard and Terry Rozier playing 30 minutes a night. They'd disintegrate when Horford hit the bench, and any long-term injury that'd keep him out would be fatal. Also, Jae Crowder would still be around, likely clogging a pipeline that's seen Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown flourish.
If Hayward is healthy, what does Miami’s roster look like? (WHERE IS KELLY OLYNYK?!?) Is Miami better than it is right now or would Hayward struggle within the cramped confines of a Hassan Whiteside-Justise Winslow frontcourt? Even if they didn’t want to re-sign James Johnson or Dion Waiters with Hayward in tow, the Heat might still turn to decreasingly unconventional means, perhaps permanently plopping the one-time All-Star at the four, and having guards like Goran Dragic and Wayne Ellington set ball screens for him 35 feet from the basket.
C. Paul George is traded to the Boston Celtics
Things have so far worked out fine in Boston, but let me crawl out on a limb and declare that this team would be really freaking good if they somehow had Paul George, healthy Hayward, Irving, and Horford on the same team. Sub George for Tatum right now and they’re (maybe but not definitely) a better regular-season team. Their ceiling elevates on both ends in the postseason.
The more important ripple effect here is with Westbrook and the Thunder. Does he sign his extension or demand a trade? What does professional basketball in Oklahoma City even look like? And where are the Indiana Pacers? They don’t have Victor Oladipo (a hipster’s MVP candidate if there ever was one) or Domantas Sabonis. Their optimism would instead spout from Tatum’s magical touch and any other assets Kevin Pritchard could pry from Danny Ainge.
Even though this exercise is purely hypothetical, I’m far too lazy to trace imaginary steps and figure out what Boston’s roster would actually look like, but if the Celtics’ starting five somehow had four All-Stars and Jaylen Brown, um, that team would probably go to the Finals.
3. So, Who Isn’t Shooting Threes?
The highly scientific requirements to answer this question are such: A) a player has to launch no more than one three per game, B) he must average at least 12 minutes, and C) he needs to have appeared in at least 20 games. Here are the 49 players who qualify.
If you hold those benchmarks up against last season (and raise the minimum number of games to 55) that number rises by 12 players. Five years ago that same list had 99 players on it. For those counting at home, with my admittedly arbitrary qualifiers, that means the number of players (who actually play) who don’t use the three-point line is about half what it was during LeBron James’ third season in Miami—hard evidence of a revolution that’s been identified in real time.
Photo by Shanna Lockwood - USA TODAY Sports
Let’s go back to this year’s group, which reads like an endangered species list. How many players on there are useful despite their inability/unwillingness to shoot threes? If we first look at total minutes played, Ben Simmons unsurprisingly ranks first and is a revelatory prospect who's simultaneously defying convention while meeting his expectations. From there we’re infested by a crap ton of traditional big men who impact the game in other areas. They rebound, protect the rim, and set screens. Some space the floor by diving through the paint. Some are still dangerous at the elbow, and can engineer decent offense with their vision and a mid-range jump shot. A very small handful do damage with their back to the basket.
The non-bigs here are exactly who you’d expect: T.J. McConnell, Kyle Anderson, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Shaun Livingston, Tony Allen, Ish Smith, Kidd-Gilchrist, Dejounte Murray, etc. Omri Casspi is on there for some reason, too, somehow posting the highest True Shooting percentage of his career and the lowest three-point rate (The. Warriors. Are. Not. Fair.)
Over a third of everyone listed is at least 29 years old; five years from now this register will probably be half as long as it is today. This is foreseeable and a little depressing. The three-point shot is a game-changing roller-coaster, and when a collection of great shooters help frame the court in a way that broadens driving and passing lanes, the aesthetics can be breathtaking. (The. Warriors. Are. Not. Fair.)
I also just enjoy watching guys like Kidd-Gilchrist and Hollis-Jefferson—those who stand out with idiosyncratic limitations—but if you’re trying to win a championship right now it’s hard to justify their presence in your rotation. None of this is new, but stopping to think about what it means for basketball’s future every so often is necessary. I don’t want every team to play like the Rockets even though no team in the world is more entertaining.
4. Houston’s Angles are Ridiculous
Speaking of the Rockets, I’ve thought about this pass almost every day since it happened:
Like, what the hell? I have so many questions, starting with: In the moment: when did Chris Paul first believe that flinging a one-handed cross-court pass—directly parallel with the baseline—would actually work? Was it born from frustration or design?
As the shot clock ticks on, Tarik Black appears unsure of what he’s supposed to do. Paul directs him to set a down screen for Trevor Ariza, but Ariza instead jogs away in an attempt to drag his man to the weakside corner. Black then runs up to set a ball screen for Paul. There’s six freaking seconds on the clock and not even two dribbles into his assault Paul rifles the ball at an impossibly difficult and rare angle to create a wide-open three on the other side of the floor.
As the pick-and-roll unfolds, Thabo Sefolosha points for Royce O’Neale to stay in the paint and help defend what, in all likelihood, will either be a shot from Paul or Black. Does Paul see this and know it means Sefolosha is about to drop half a step toward the baseline to worry about Ariza in the corner? How is he so smart?!?
Paul and James Harden combine to average 19 assists per game. They’re second and third in the league in that category, respectively. But the Rockets only rank 12th in assist percentage and 29th in passes per game. They’re 28th in secondary assists and 13th in potential assists. That’s partly due to the fact that no team isolates more frequently than Houston. They maximize the space provided by their collection of human catapults and take advantage of the virtuous one-on-one skills possessed by their dual MVP candidates. (Not only do they isolate more than anybody else, no team is more efficient when attacking that way. This team is absurd.)
But Houston’s offense doesn’t peak when the ball is dribbled. Jaw-dropping, spontaneous passes made at angles very few players can even dream about allow the Rockets to generate efficient shots that catch defenses off balance. The surgical precision seen above is not attainable for most guards around the league, but it's basically second nature for Paul and Harden. Quick sidebar: Harden is probably going to win his first MVP this season, but not enough words can be written about Paul, who’s re-asserted himself as the second-best floor general in basketball and an automatic All-NBA member. Passes like that one help explain why.
5. J.J. Redick’s Game Isn’t Supposed to Expand, but it Has
At 33 years old, Redick is playing 33.5 minutes a night for a team that’s averaging 103.2 possessions per 48 minutes when he’s on the floor. Redick has never played this fast and his minutes have never been this high. As everyone fawns over Paul distancing himself from the formulaic style he enjoyed in L.A.,, Redick is experiencing the exact same thing in a role that doesn’t allow him to step on the gas whenever he wants.
Instead of seeing his responsibilities narrow, Redick’s doing more stuff in different ways. According to Synergy Sports, the percentage of all his jumpers that were off the dribble last season was 39 percent. Right now, that number is 47 percent, somewhat-expected uptick that's lowered his accuracy and can partially be attributed to greener teammates.
But heading into the season, without Paul for the first time in half a decade, I wasn’t sure Redick could do much beyond space the floor while Simmons ran high pick-and-rolls or Joel Embiid corralled entry passes on the block. Glue him to the corner and run him off a bunch of pindowns and Philly couldn’t be criticized for misunderstanding their marquee free agent acquisition. Instead, they’ve expanded his responsibilities in some very smart ways.
The ball feels like it’s in his hands far more than it was in Los Angeles. Instead of running through an endless maze of bodies, Redick's slicing defenses open with direct hand-offs and a bit more pick-and-roll action, all ultimately designed to turn the defense’s brain into toast.
Knowing the Lakers want to switch everything, Philly has Redick’s DHO turn into a staggered screen-and-roll. But Kentavious Caldwell-Pope doesn’t stop his pursuit—because Redick is that scary—momentarily putting two on the ball and allowing Redick to find Robert Covington wide open on the opposite wing. Kyle Kuzma switches off Amir Johnson in time to run Covington off the three-point line, but his off-balanced helps introduce the ball to the basket.
Whenever he sets a ball screen, two defenders are forced to communicate in an instant. Should they switch or fight through? Sometimes that question goes unanswered and both follow Redick. And sometimes the split-second hesitation is all a monster like Simmons needs to spark a match and pour gasoline all over the court.
Philadelphia is not good when Simmons and Embiid aren’t on the floor, but Redick stabilizes things as best he can, preventing bad from becoming apocalyptic. His assist rate in those minutes soars up to 25.8 (with a dependable 5.67 assist-to-turnover ratio) and his True Shooting is an uncanny 68.2. Covington is the only Sixer with a higher usage percentage.
All this is a pleasant surprise. I, personally, thought Redick was entering a different phase of his career after Joe Ingles crushed him in the playoffs. But in a new environment, as an elder statesman, Redick has shown that he's far more than a shooter, in a league that should be able to make good use of his talent for years to come.
6. C.J. Miles and The Babies
Since O.G. Anunonby cracked Toronto's starting lineup and Delon Wright dislocated his right shoulder (two events that basically happened at the same time, about a week before Thanksgiving), Raptors head coach Dwane Casey decided to hitch 30-year-old C.J. Miles to a bunch of children. Norm Powell (24 years old), Jakob Poeltl (22 and in need of a better nickname than "Austrian Hammer"), Fred VanVleet (23), and Pascal Siakam (23).
This is Toronto's second-most common five-man group over the past month, and they've been absolutely dreadful on both ends. But guess what? I don't care! Stubborn Casey is good sometimes. Yes, the Raptors should go back to a Lowry + Bench unit that makes opposing second units weep—swap Lowry in for Miles and that exact same supporting cast crushes everybody—but this makes me feel like Miles is a lovable babysitter that you can't, in good conscience, stay mad at.
Playing Miles at the three as opposed to the four doesn't make a ton of sense, but using him to space the floor for an inexperienced collection of players Toronto will need in the playoffs is fine enough for now.
7. Austin Rivers is an Isolation Genius...or Something
Thanks to a slew of notable injuries that have quickly transformed the perennial playoff-contending Los Angeles Clippers into the Los Angeles Clippers, Austin Rivers has been thrust into a role far greater than his ability can handle. But despite being an inefficient, borderline first-option with shaky shot selection, Rivers is also one of the league’s top one-on-one players.
Photo by Kim Klement - USA TODAY Sports
According to Synergy Sports, Rivers averaged 0.94 points per possession in isolation situations last year, a figure that placed him in the 73rd percentile. That’s not bad, even though it was likely boosted an unquantifiable degree thanks to Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Jamal Crawford, J.J. Redick, Marreese Speights and even Ray Felton occupying the opposition's attention in various ways.
This year, surrounded by G-League talent more nights than not, Rivers’ isolation numbers are even better. He’s averaging 1.05 points per possession (74th percentile) and is actually more efficient than established All-Stars like Kyrie Irving, Russell Westbrook, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and DeMar DeRozan.
Some of this is because the career 35.5 percent three-point shooter has canned 40.7 percent of his outside attempts—including 42.7 percent of his 3.0 pull ups per game. And some of it’s because he never ever ever turns it over. But few players symbolize the “million dollar move, 10 cent finish” expression better than Rivers, who’s a master at breaking his man down off the dribble, entering a crowd of rim protectors, and lofting a prayer towards the basket.
Given that this is such an uncertain time for the Clippers, swapping Rivers out for a second-round pick and expiring money (he has a $12.6 million player option for next year) should be an objective for their front office. Maybe there's a general manager out there who sees these numbers (particularly that impressive shooting) and wonders if Rivers can help his playoff team in a seven-game series.
8. Cleveland’s Juiciest Asset Is Not Really That Juicy
The Brooklyn Nets are, officially, no longer atrocious. Heading into Wednesday night’s action, they had a higher winning percentage than 10 teams despite not having their opening night backcourt starters for most of the season. They’re below average on both sides of the ball, but only three teams launch threes more frequently and only one owns a faster pace.
Brooklyn’s starting five—DeMarre Carroll, Spencer Dinwiddie, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Tyler Zeller, and Allen Crabbe—has obliterated opponents by 25.3 points per 100 possessions since Kenny Atkinson turned to it right before Thanksgiving, and adding Jahlil Okafor, Nik Stauskas, and healthy D’Angelo Russell to the mix will only improve their depth and diversify their offensive options.
When teams start to really tank in March and April, the Nets will be busting their ass to win games and get better at everything they do. All this is bad news for the Cleveland Cavaliers. What was once their crown jewel for Kyrie Irving might now be Zach Collins (who's actually playing pretty well, but that's beside the point).
Does this mean Koby Altman should aggressively shop his best asset around the league? It’s probably still a little too early for that, considering their current rhythm and fact that they’ve yet to see what Isaiah Thomas looks like in their rotation. But the odds of that pick staying in Cleveland feel a lot lower today than they were a couple months ago.
The pick’s dropping value also changes what it’s worth. That means strapping a top-three protection to it and checking on Aaron Gordon’s availability is far more likely than getting someone like Paul George or DeMarcus Cousins. Realistic targets are now closer to the Harrison Barnes, Batum, or Rodney Hood mold (a lottery pick for any of those three is still a dramatic overpay, even though they’d help the Cavs match up better against the Golden State Warriors or Houston Rockets in the Finals).
A couple weeks ago, before the Memphis Grizzlies fired David Fizdale, I wrote that Cleveland should give up the Nets pick for Marc Gasol. I didn’t believe they ever would, but now it’s not so crazy! When you have LeBron James doing UNBELIEVABLE LeBron James things every night, holding back as a front office feels criminal.
What’s the worst that could happen? They lose in the Finals, he leaves, and they don’t have the 10th pick in the draft? How much better off would Cleveland be if they hold onto that pick, lose in the Finals and watch him leave? They were arguably the worst franchise in the league during the four seasons he spent in Miami. Dark days lie ahead no matter what. The best thing they can do is go all-in and capitalize on a historic season from an all-time icon. Trade the pick, Cleveland! Convince him to stay! You're screwed if he leaves even if you have it!
9. David Nwaba is a Good NBA Player
Every time I watch Nwaba he makes three to five effort-intensive plays that makes Chicago feel like a competitive team. He’s just so damn physical, a tenacious rebounder who defends, draws fouls, finishes around the rim, and never turns it over.The Bulls (yes, the Bulls) are outscoring opponents by 4.5 points per 100 possessions with Nwaba on the floor, performing like a 53-win team. He’s awesome, and aside from the fact that he doesn’t shoot threes and there won't be a ton of money to go around this summer, one of the league’s 30 teams would be smart to offer present the restricted free agent with an offer sheet.
10. Finding Hope in Memphis
Almost exactly one year ago, Deyonta Davis tore the plantar fascia in his left foot, a devastating injury for any human being but particularly savage for someone who plays professional basketball and weighs 240 pounds. It essentially ended his rookie season.
In year two, as Marc Gasol’s primary backup thanks to Brandan Wright’s nagging groin injury, Davis is averaging 3.9 points and 3.2 rebounds per game. But in limited time he’s shown decent mobility on the defensive end and a feathery touch around the basket.
As someone who isn't fast enough to scamper around the perimeter, Memphis has him drop defending almost every pick-and-roll. Here he is stepping up to force Abrines to pass to Jerami Grant, then sliding back and forcing a turnover.
Now, against an actual playmaker who knew how to string his dribble out a bit longer, this sequence would probably not have the same result. Davis struggles against bigs who can shoot, too, forcing the Grizzlies to late switch or surrender open threes.
But according to Cleaning the Glass, whenever he's on the floor Memphis allows a ridiculous 11.3 fewer points per 100 possessions. (Opponents are also barely hitting threes when Davis is in the game, so, yeah, that's kind of meaningful and has nothing to do with his defense.)
On the other end, he's shooting 79 percent at the rim. That's really good! And aside from the natural hiccup as he learns to read the floor, taking shots as a roller when he should hit the open man, there are examples of him identifying what he needs to do and executing immediately.
Before he even catches Ben McLemore's pass out of Washington's trap, Davis' eyes are set on the opposite wing, initiating a sequence that leads to an open three and one of the most beautiful possessions Memphis has experienced all season.
He's still a project, but one who only played 600 minutes in college and hardly saw the floor last season. Davis is shooting 72.7 percent whenever he rolls to the basket; the day Gasol leaves Memphis will be dark, but Davis is beginning to flash the talent of someone who deserves a chance to *attempt* to fill those humongous shoes.
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The Outlet Pass: Charlotte’s Tailspin, Cavs Trade Targets, and NBA What-Ifs
1. Can Charlotte Turn Things Around?
The Charlotte Hornets are stuck in an injury-induced tailspin. They’ve dropped eight of their last 10 games, including two straight at home against the Los Angeles Lakers and Chicago Bulls. Their head coach is out with a health issue (get well soon, Steve Clifford) and they’re four games back of a playoff spot, with four teams—the Orlando Magic, New York Knicks, Miami Heat, and Brooklyn Nets—standing in their way.
At one point last week they went to their bench and I literally didn’t know the first names of two players on the court. Michael Carter-Williams is making Marcus Smart look like Glen Rice and Malik Monk is barely in the rotation while Donovan Mitchell (the next guard selected) is averaging 27.2 points per game in December.
Charlotte’s starting five is fine when everybody’s healthy but they’ve only played Kemba Walker, Nicolas Batum, Marvin Williams, Dwight Howard, and Jeremy Lamb together for seven minutes all season. Normally, they are stuck with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist on the floor, dragging the offense down. Just look at how disrespectful the Thunder are to MKG in the play below.
Kidd-Gilchrist isn’t fooling anyone from deep, but he’s now a modestly-reliable safety valve from 15 feet and in. The Hornets are rushing to execute a 2-for-1 on this particular sequence, but it’s still jarring to see an NBA starter find himself SO open and not come close to touching the ball.
Their primary Batum + Bench unit was doing pretty well before Cody Zeller had knee surgery, though, partially because Lamb was in it. When Dwayne Bacon replaces Kidd-Gilchrist in the starting lineup they destroy people.
Ultimately, it all comes down to the Hornets just not being very good when Walker isn’t in the game. According to Cleaning the Glass, Charlotte is 22.1 points per 100 possessions better with Walker on the floor. Even if Batum is the de-facto primary ball-handler, their offense is stagnant and averages less than one point per possession. That’s so bad, but everything goes to hell when they’re both out. (The starting five is okay, but not crushing opponents enough to justify heavy minutes together while the bench can’t fend for itself.)
In what almost felt like season-saving victory against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday night, interim head coach Stephen Silas stretched Walker and Lamb’s playing time into a 15.5-minute stint to open the second half. In his eyes, Charlotte’s bench was a Rob Zombie-directed blood bath. Slaughter would commence the second he switched up his backcourt.
Silas knew Charlotte needed that game. For extending his starters, he was rewarded with ridiculous, completely unsustainable shot making against a defense that sorely missed Andre Roberson (I think Alex Abrines just fouled another three-point shooter). But a win is a win is a win.
With their upcoming schedule providing zero seconds to exhale, the Hornets will either get healthy, tinker with the rotation and stop their ship from sinking, or face some difficult questions before the trade deadline. (‘Does anyone want the $76 million left on Batum’s contract? How about the $29 million owed to Marvin Williams?’ or, ‘Can we please for the love of God find a backup point guard?’)
Barring a significant transaction, next year’s roster will look about the same as this one, plus whoever they get in the draft. But whether or not this team views itself as a buyer or a seller is another relevant discussion. The Hornets have enough talent to make the playoffs and even win a few games once they get in (or even an entire series if they can somehow grab the sixth seed).
Rebuilding won’t be easy with this cap sheet, and Walker is smack dab in the middle of his prime. If Monk doesn’t make rapid progress from here on out, do they think about dealing him and/or their first-round pick in the 2018 draft for immediate help? Injuries stink and so does bad luck, but the Hornets aren’t as rudderless as they currently feel. We’ll know even more about the direction they should head as the next couple months unfold.
2. This Year’s NBA What-Ifs Are Pretty Great
This season has been filled with a handful of shocking developments. After a possible career-altering injury to their best all-around player, the Boston Celtics are very good. With their entire roster 100 percent healthy (relatively speaking), the Oklahoma City Thunder are not very good. The Indiana Pacers are good. The Miami Heat are bad. The Portland Trail Blazers are Stranger Things Season 3.
Based on reports and rumors from various points throughout the offseason, here’s a semi-educated look at how things might look today had a few key moves gone down a bit differently.
A. Carmelo Anthony is traded to the Portland Trail Blazers
For the sake of argument, let’s just say Portland gave up Evan Turner, Mo Harkless, and a future first-round pick. So, in all likelihood, the Blazers would start Melo at the three, Al-Farouq Aminu at the four, and Jusif Nurkic at center. That starting five looks offensively unstoppable on paper, but, like, so does Oklahoma City’s. Make this trade and what happens to Portland’s top-five defense? Are they still rebounding this well? Do they score at will or does Anthony further impede what’s been an unusually static offense?
Photo by Joseph Weiser-USA TODAY Sports
In addition to transforming into a gigantic whoopee cushion whenever he’s around the basket—Melo’s days of getting to the free-throw line are, at 33 years old, understandably dunzo—his assist to usage ratio ranks in the ninth percentile at his position. Even though the percentage of his shots that are unassisted hasn’t been this low since he was with the Denver Nuggets (which feels 7,000 years ago), he still loves long twos and there are defiant insecurities related to how he’s approached the seasons’ first couple months. His stubbornness has contributed to the league’s most glaring disappointment, and he’s shooting 37.6 percent from the floor over the Thunder’s last 10 games.
Would things be different in Portland? Would Anthony play better off C.J. McCollum and Damian Lillard, next to role players who won’t clog the floor and know how to pass? The stakes would be pretty low; Portland would remain unable to circumvent its own flaws and triumphantly battle through a ruthless playoff bracket. But they might be incrementally better than they are now, guaranteed a spot in the postseason, with pleasant vibes carrying them forward.
The other key side effect, assuming every other move happens as it has, is that Enes Kanter and Doug McDermott would still be on the Thunder instead of enjoying Westbrook-free serenity in midtown Manhattan. How would Anthony being in Portland affect Paul George in Oklahoma? Besides more shot opportunities, it’s hard to say. Assuming Billy Donovan chose to stagger his two best players, George would have more time on units that’d call for him to be one of the dozen best players in the world. The team’s defense might be even better than it already is.
Westbrook could also spend more time going Full Westbrook, even though Full Westbrook as we knew it last year might be a permanent thing of the past.
B. Gordon Hayward signs with the Miami Heat
Would Kyrie Irving express interest in re-signing with the Boston Celtics if Hayward chose a different team, or were Al Horford’s harmonious style, stable ownership, and Brad Stevens’ genius already enough? If not, the Celtics would likely be in the middle of the Eastern Conference with Marcus Smart starting at point guard and Terry Rozier playing 30 minutes a night. They’d disintegrate when Horford hit the bench, and any long-term injury that’d keep him out would be fatal. Also, Jae Crowder would still be around, likely clogging a pipeline that’s seen Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown flourish.
If Hayward is healthy, what does Miami’s roster look like? (WHERE IS KELLY OLYNYK?!?) Is Miami better than it is right now or would Hayward struggle within the cramped confines of a Hassan Whiteside-Justise Winslow frontcourt? Even if they didn’t want to re-sign James Johnson or Dion Waiters with Hayward in tow, the Heat might still turn to decreasingly unconventional means, perhaps permanently plopping the one-time All-Star at the four, and having guards like Goran Dragic and Wayne Ellington set ball screens for him 35 feet from the basket.
C. Paul George is traded to the Boston Celtics
Things have so far worked out fine in Boston, but let me crawl out on a limb and declare that this team would be really freaking good if they somehow had Paul George, healthy Hayward, Irving, and Horford on the same team. Sub George for Tatum right now and they’re (maybe but not definitely) a better regular-season team. Their ceiling elevates on both ends in the postseason.
The more important ripple effect here is with Westbrook and the Thunder. Does he sign his extension or demand a trade? What does professional basketball in Oklahoma City even look like? And where are the Indiana Pacers? They don’t have Victor Oladipo (a hipster’s MVP candidate if there ever was one) or Domantas Sabonis. Their optimism would instead spout from Tatum’s magical touch and any other assets Kevin Pritchard could pry from Danny Ainge.
Even though this exercise is purely hypothetical, I’m far too lazy to trace imaginary steps and figure out what Boston’s roster would actually look like, but if the Celtics’ starting five somehow had four All-Stars and Jaylen Brown, um, that team would probably go to the Finals.
3. So, Who Isn’t Shooting Threes?
The highly scientific requirements to answer this question are such: A) a player has to launch no more than one three per game, B) he must average at least 12 minutes, and C) he needs to have appeared in at least 20 games. Here are the 49 players who qualify.
If you hold those benchmarks up against last season (and raise the minimum number of games to 55) that number rises by 12 players. Five years ago that same list had 99 players on it. For those counting at home, with my admittedly arbitrary qualifiers, that means the number of players (who actually play) who don’t use the three-point line is about half what it was during LeBron James’ third season in Miami—hard evidence of a revolution that’s been identified in real time.
Photo by Shanna Lockwood – USA TODAY Sports
Let’s go back to this year’s group, which reads like an endangered species list. How many players on there are useful despite their inability/unwillingness to shoot threes? If we first look at total minutes played, Ben Simmons unsurprisingly ranks first and is a revelatory prospect who’s simultaneously defying convention while meeting his expectations. From there we’re infested by a crap ton of traditional big men who impact the game in other areas. They rebound, protect the rim, and set screens. Some space the floor by diving through the paint. Some are still dangerous at the elbow, and can engineer decent offense with their vision and a mid-range jump shot. A very small handful do damage with their back to the basket.
The non-bigs here are exactly who you’d expect: T.J. McConnell, Kyle Anderson, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Shaun Livingston, Tony Allen, Ish Smith, Kidd-Gilchrist, Dejounte Murray, etc. Omri Casspi is on there for some reason, too, somehow posting the highest True Shooting percentage of his career and the lowest three-point rate (The. Warriors. Are. Not. Fair.)
Over a third of everyone listed is at least 29 years old; five years from now this register will probably be half as long as it is today. This is foreseeable and a little depressing. The three-point shot is a game-changing roller-coaster, and when a collection of great shooters help frame the court in a way that broadens driving and passing lanes, the aesthetics can be breathtaking. (The. Warriors. Are. Not. Fair.)
I also just enjoy watching guys like Kidd-Gilchrist and Hollis-Jefferson—those who stand out with idiosyncratic limitations—but if you’re trying to win a championship right now it’s hard to justify their presence in your rotation. None of this is new, but stopping to think about what it means for basketball’s future every so often is necessary. I don’t want every team to play like the Rockets even though no team in the world is more entertaining.
4. Houston’s Angles are Ridiculous
Speaking of the Rockets, I’ve thought about this pass almost every day since it happened:
Like, what the hell? I have so many questions, starting with: In the moment: when did Chris Paul first believe that flinging a one-handed cross-court pass—directly parallel with the baseline—would actually work? Was it born from frustration or design?
As the shot clock ticks on, Tarik Black appears unsure of what he’s supposed to do. Paul directs him to set a down screen for Trevor Ariza, but Ariza instead jogs away in an attempt to drag his man to the weakside corner. Black then runs up to set a ball screen for Paul. There’s six freaking seconds on the clock and not even two dribbles into his assault Paul rifles the ball at an impossibly difficult and rare angle to create a wide-open three on the other side of the floor.
As the pick-and-roll unfolds, Thabo Sefolosha points for Royce O’Neale to stay in the paint and help defend what, in all likelihood, will either be a shot from Paul or Black. Does Paul see this and know it means Sefolosha is about to drop half a step toward the baseline to worry about Ariza in the corner? How is he so smart?!?
Paul and James Harden combine to average 19 assists per game. They’re second and third in the league in that category, respectively. But the Rockets only rank 12th in assist percentage and 29th in passes per game. They’re 28th in secondary assists and 13th in potential assists. That’s partly due to the fact that no team isolates more frequently than Houston. They maximize the space provided by their collection of human catapults and take advantage of the virtuous one-on-one skills possessed by their dual MVP candidates. (Not only do they isolate more than anybody else, no team is more efficient when attacking that way. This team is absurd.)
But Houston’s offense doesn’t peak when the ball is dribbled. Jaw-dropping, spontaneous passes made at angles very few players can even dream about allow the Rockets to generate efficient shots that catch defenses off balance. The surgical precision seen above is not attainable for most guards around the league, but it’s basically second nature for Paul and Harden. Quick sidebar: Harden is probably going to win his first MVP this season, but not enough words can be written about Paul, who’s re-asserted himself as the second-best floor general in basketball and an automatic All-NBA member. Passes like that one help explain why.
5. J.J. Redick’s Game Isn’t Supposed to Expand, but it Has
At 33 years old, Redick is playing 33.5 minutes a night for a team that’s averaging 103.2 possessions per 48 minutes when he’s on the floor. Redick has never played this fast and his minutes have never been this high. As everyone fawns over Paul distancing himself from the formulaic style he enjoyed in L.A.,, Redick is experiencing the exact same thing in a role that doesn’t allow him to step on the gas whenever he wants.
Instead of seeing his responsibilities narrow, Redick’s doing more stuff in different ways. According to Synergy Sports, the percentage of all his jumpers that were off the dribble last season was 39 percent. Right now, that number is 47 percent, somewhat-expected uptick that’s lowered his accuracy and can partially be attributed to greener teammates.
But heading into the season, without Paul for the first time in half a decade, I wasn’t sure Redick could do much beyond space the floor while Simmons ran high pick-and-rolls or Joel Embiid corralled entry passes on the block. Glue him to the corner and run him off a bunch of pindowns and Philly couldn’t be criticized for misunderstanding their marquee free agent acquisition. Instead, they’ve expanded his responsibilities in some very smart ways.
The ball feels like it’s in his hands far more than it was in Los Angeles. Instead of running through an endless maze of bodies, Redick’s slicing defenses open with direct hand-offs and a bit more pick-and-roll action, all ultimately designed to turn the defense’s brain into toast.
Knowing the Lakers want to switch everything, Philly has Redick’s DHO turn into a staggered screen-and-roll. But Kentavious Caldwell-Pope doesn’t stop his pursuit—because Redick is that scary—momentarily putting two on the ball and allowing Redick to find Robert Covington wide open on the opposite wing. Kyle Kuzma switches off Amir Johnson in time to run Covington off the three-point line, but his off-balanced helps introduce the ball to the basket.
Whenever he sets a ball screen, two defenders are forced to communicate in an instant. Should they switch or fight through? Sometimes that question goes unanswered and both follow Redick. And sometimes the split-second hesitation is all a monster like Simmons needs to spark a match and pour gasoline all over the court.
Philadelphia is not good when Simmons and Embiid aren’t on the floor, but Redick stabilizes things as best he can, preventing bad from becoming apocalyptic. His assist rate in those minutes soars up to 25.8 (with a dependable 5.67 assist-to-turnover ratio) and his True Shooting is an uncanny 68.2. Covington is the only Sixer with a higher usage percentage.
All this is a pleasant surprise. I, personally, thought Redick was entering a different phase of his career after Joe Ingles crushed him in the playoffs. But in a new environment, as an elder statesman, Redick has shown that he’s far more than a shooter, in a league that should be able to make good use of his talent for years to come.
6. C.J. Miles and The Babies
Since O.G. Anunonby cracked Toronto’s starting lineup and Delon Wright dislocated his right shoulder (two events that basically happened at the same time, about a week before Thanksgiving), Raptors head coach Dwane Casey decided to hitch 30-year-old C.J. Miles to a bunch of children. Norm Powell (24 years old), Jakob Poeltl (22 and in need of a better nickname than “Austrian Hammer”), Fred VanVleet (23), and Pascal Siakam (23).
This is Toronto’s second-most common five-man group over the past month, and they’ve been absolutely dreadful on both ends. But guess what? I don’t care! Stubborn Casey is good sometimes. Yes, the Raptors should go back to a Lowry + Bench unit that makes opposing second units weep—swap Lowry in for Miles and that exact same supporting cast crushes everybody—but this makes me feel like Miles is a lovable babysitter that you can’t, in good conscience, stay mad at.
Playing Miles at the three as opposed to the four doesn’t make a ton of sense, but using him to space the floor for an inexperienced collection of players Toronto will need in the playoffs is fine enough for now.
7. Austin Rivers is an Isolation Genius…or Something
Thanks to a slew of notable injuries that have quickly transformed the perennial playoff-contending Los Angeles Clippers into the Los Angeles Clippers, Austin Rivers has been thrust into a role far greater than his ability can handle. But despite being an inefficient, borderline first-option with shaky shot selection, Rivers is also one of the league’s top one-on-one players.
Photo by Kim Klement – USA TODAY Sports
According to Synergy Sports, Rivers averaged 0.94 points per possession in isolation situations last year, a figure that placed him in the 73rd percentile. That’s not bad, even though it was likely boosted an unquantifiable degree thanks to Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Jamal Crawford, J.J. Redick, Marreese Speights and even Ray Felton occupying the opposition’s attention in various ways.
This year, surrounded by G-League talent more nights than not, Rivers’ isolation numbers are even better. He’s averaging 1.05 points per possession (74th percentile) and is actually more efficient than established All-Stars like Kyrie Irving, Russell Westbrook, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and DeMar DeRozan.
Some of this is because the career 35.5 percent three-point shooter has canned 40.7 percent of his outside attempts—including 42.7 percent of his 3.0 pull ups per game. And some of it’s because he never ever ever turns it over. But few players symbolize the “million dollar move, 10 cent finish” expression better than Rivers, who’s a master at breaking his man down off the dribble, entering a crowd of rim protectors, and lofting a prayer towards the basket.
Given that this is such an uncertain time for the Clippers, swapping Rivers out for a second-round pick and expiring money (he has a $12.6 million player option for next year) should be an objective for their front office. Maybe there’s a general manager out there who sees these numbers (particularly that impressive shooting) and wonders if Rivers can help his playoff team in a seven-game series.
8. Cleveland’s Juiciest Asset Is Not Really That Juicy
The Brooklyn Nets are, officially, no longer atrocious. Heading into Wednesday night’s action, they had a higher winning percentage than 10 teams despite not having their opening night backcourt starters for most of the season. They’re below average on both sides of the ball, but only three teams launch threes more frequently and only one owns a faster pace.
Brooklyn’s starting five—DeMarre Carroll, Spencer Dinwiddie, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Tyler Zeller, and Allen Crabbe—has obliterated opponents by 25.3 points per 100 possessions since Kenny Atkinson turned to it right before Thanksgiving, and adding Jahlil Okafor, Nik Stauskas, and healthy D’Angelo Russell to the mix will only improve their depth and diversify their offensive options.
When teams start to really tank in March and April, the Nets will be busting their ass to win games and get better at everything they do. All this is bad news for the Cleveland Cavaliers. What was once their crown jewel for Kyrie Irving might now be Zach Collins (who’s actually playing pretty well, but that’s beside the point).
Does this mean Koby Altman should aggressively shop his best asset around the league? It’s probably still a little too early for that, considering their current rhythm and fact that they’ve yet to see what Isaiah Thomas looks like in their rotation. But the odds of that pick staying in Cleveland feel a lot lower today than they were a couple months ago.
The pick’s dropping value also changes what it’s worth. That means strapping a top-three protection to it and checking on Aaron Gordon’s availability is far more likely than getting someone like Paul George or DeMarcus Cousins. Realistic targets are now closer to the Harrison Barnes, Batum, or Rodney Hood mold (a lottery pick for any of those three is still a dramatic overpay, even though they’d help the Cavs match up better against the Golden State Warriors or Houston Rockets in the Finals).
A couple weeks ago, before the Memphis Grizzlies fired David Fizdale, I wrote that Cleveland should give up the Nets pick for Marc Gasol. I didn’t believe they ever would, but now it’s not so crazy! When you have LeBron James doing UNBELIEVABLE LeBron James things every night, holding back as a front office feels criminal.
What’s the worst that could happen? They lose in the Finals, he leaves, and they don’t have the 10th pick in the draft? How much better off would Cleveland be if they hold onto that pick, lose in the Finals and watch him leave? They were arguably the worst franchise in the league during the four seasons he spent in Miami. Dark days lie ahead no matter what. The best thing they can do is go all-in and capitalize on a historic season from an all-time icon. Trade the pick, Cleveland! Convince him to stay! You’re screwed if he leaves even if you have it!
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9. David Nwaba is a Good NBA Player
Every time I watch Nwaba he makes three to five effort-intensive plays that makes Chicago feel like a competitive team. He’s just so damn physical, a tenacious rebounder who defends, draws fouls, finishes around the rim, and never turns it over.The Bulls (yes, the Bulls) are outscoring opponents by 4.5 points per 100 possessions with Nwaba on the floor, performing like a 53-win team. He’s awesome, and aside from the fact that he doesn’t shoot threes and there won’t be a ton of money to go around this summer, one of the league’s 30 teams would be smart to offer present the restricted free agent with an offer sheet.
10. Finding Hope in Memphis
Almost exactly one year ago, Deyonta Davis tore the plantar fascia in his left foot, a devastating injury for any human being but particularly savage for someone who plays professional basketball and weighs 240 pounds. It essentially ended his rookie season.
In year two, as Marc Gasol’s primary backup thanks to Brandan Wright’s nagging groin injury, Davis is averaging 3.9 points and 3.2 rebounds per game. But in limited time he’s shown decent mobility on the defensive end and a feathery touch around the basket.
As someone who isn’t fast enough to scamper around the perimeter, Memphis has him drop defending almost every pick-and-roll. Here he is stepping up to force Abrines to pass to Jerami Grant, then sliding back and forcing a turnover.
Now, against an actual playmaker who knew how to string his dribble out a bit longer, this sequence would probably not have the same result. Davis struggles against bigs who can shoot, too, forcing the Grizzlies to late switch or surrender open threes.
But according to Cleaning the Glass, whenever he’s on the floor Memphis allows a ridiculous 11.3 fewer points per 100 possessions. (Opponents are also barely hitting threes when Davis is in the game, so, yeah, that’s kind of meaningful and has nothing to do with his defense.)
On the other end, he’s shooting 79 percent at the rim. That’s really good! And aside from the natural hiccup as he learns to read the floor, taking shots as a roller when he should hit the open man, there are examples of him identifying what he needs to do and executing immediately.
Before he even catches Ben McLemore’s pass out of Washington’s trap, Davis’ eyes are set on the opposite wing, initiating a sequence that leads to an open three and one of the most beautiful possessions Memphis has experienced all season.
He’s still a project, but one who only played 600 minutes in college and hardly saw the floor last season. Davis is shooting 72.7 percent whenever he rolls to the basket; the day Gasol leaves Memphis will be dark, but Davis is beginning to flash the talent of someone who deserves a chance to *attempt* to fill those humongous shoes.
The Outlet Pass: Charlotte’s Tailspin, Cavs Trade Targets, and NBA What-Ifs syndicated from http://ift.tt/2ug2Ns6
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flauntpage · 6 years
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The Outlet Pass: Charlotte's Tailspin, Cavs Trade Targets, and NBA What-Ifs
1. Can Charlotte Turn Things Around?
The Charlotte Hornets are stuck in an injury-induced tailspin. They’ve dropped eight of their last 10 games, including two straight at home against the Los Angeles Lakers and Chicago Bulls. Their head coach is out with a health issue (get well soon, Steve Clifford) and they’re four games back of a playoff spot, with four teams—the Orlando Magic, New York Knicks, Miami Heat, and Brooklyn Nets—standing in their way.
At one point last week they went to their bench and I literally didn’t know the first names of two players on the court. Michael Carter-Williams is making Marcus Smart look like Glen Rice and Malik Monk is barely in the rotation while Donovan Mitchell (the next guard selected) is averaging 27.2 points per game in December.
Charlotte's starting five is fine when everybody’s healthy but they've only played Kemba Walker, Nicolas Batum, Marvin Williams, Dwight Howard, and Jeremy Lamb together for seven minutes all season. Normally, they are stuck with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist on the floor, dragging the offense down. Just look at how disrespectful the Thunder are to MKG in the play below.
Kidd-Gilchrist isn’t fooling anyone from deep, but he’s now a modestly-reliable safety valve from 15 feet and in. The Hornets are rushing to execute a 2-for-1 on this particular sequence, but it’s still jarring to see an NBA starter find himself SO open and not come close to touching the ball.
Their primary Batum + Bench unit was doing pretty well before Cody Zeller had knee surgery, though, partially because Lamb was in it. When Dwayne Bacon replaces Kidd-Gilchrist in the starting lineup they destroy people.
Ultimately, it all comes down to the Hornets just not being very good when Walker isn’t in the game. According to Cleaning the Glass, Charlotte is 22.1 points per 100 possessions better with Walker on the floor. Even if Batum is the de-facto primary ball-handler, their offense is stagnant and averages less than one point per possession. That’s so bad, but everything goes to hell when they’re both out. (The starting five is okay, but not crushing opponents enough to justify heavy minutes together while the bench can’t fend for itself.)
In what almost felt like season-saving victory against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday night, interim head coach Stephen Silas stretched Walker and Lamb’s playing time into a 15.5-minute stint to open the second half. In his eyes, Charlotte’s bench was a Rob Zombie-directed blood bath. Slaughter would commence the second he switched up his backcourt.
Silas knew Charlotte needed that game. For extending his starters, he was rewarded with ridiculous, completely unsustainable shot making against a defense that sorely missed Andre Roberson (I think Alex Abrines just fouled another three-point shooter). But a win is a win is a win.
With their upcoming schedule providing zero seconds to exhale, the Hornets will either get healthy, tinker with the rotation and stop their ship from sinking, or face some difficult questions before the trade deadline. (‘Does anyone want the $76 million left on Batum’s contract? How about the $29 million owed to Marvin Williams?’ or, ‘Can we please for the love of God find a backup point guard?’)
Barring a significant transaction, next year’s roster will look about the same as this one, plus whoever they get in the draft. But whether or not this team views itself as a buyer or a seller is another relevant discussion. The Hornets have enough talent to make the playoffs and even win a few games once they get in (or even an entire series if they can somehow grab the sixth seed).
Rebuilding won’t be easy with this cap sheet, and Walker is smack dab in the middle of his prime. If Monk doesn’t make rapid progress from here on out, do they think about dealing him and/or their first-round pick in the 2018 draft for immediate help? Injuries stink and so does bad luck, but the Hornets aren’t as rudderless as they currently feel. We’ll know even more about the direction they should head as the next couple months unfold.
2. This Year’s NBA What-Ifs Are Pretty Great
This season has been filled with a handful of shocking developments. After a possible career-altering injury to their best all-around player, the Boston Celtics are very good. With their entire roster 100 percent healthy (relatively speaking), the Oklahoma City Thunder are not very good. The Indiana Pacers are good. The Miami Heat are bad. The Portland Trail Blazers are Stranger Things Season 3.
Based on reports and rumors from various points throughout the offseason, here’s a semi-educated look at how things might look today had a few key moves gone down a bit differently.
A. Carmelo Anthony is traded to the Portland Trail Blazers
For the sake of argument, let’s just say Portland gave up Evan Turner, Mo Harkless, and a future first-round pick. So, in all likelihood, the Blazers would start Melo at the three, Al-Farouq Aminu at the four, and Jusif Nurkic at center. That starting five looks offensively unstoppable on paper, but, like, so does Oklahoma City's. Make this trade and what happens to Portland's top-five defense? Are they still rebounding this well? Do they score at will or does Anthony further impede what’s been an unusually static offense?
Photo by Joseph Weiser-USA TODAY Sports
In addition to transforming into a gigantic whoopee cushion whenever he's around the basket—Melo’s days of getting to the free-throw line are, at 33 years old, understandably dunzo—his assist to usage ratio ranks in the ninth percentile at his position. Even though the percentage of his shots that are unassisted hasn’t been this low since he was with the Denver Nuggets (which feels 7,000 years ago), he still loves long twos and there are defiant insecurities related to how he’s approached the seasons' first couple months. His stubbornness has contributed to the league’s most glaring disappointment, and he’s shooting 37.6 percent from the floor over the Thunder's last 10 games.
Would things be different in Portland? Would Anthony play better off C.J. McCollum and Damian Lillard, next to role players who won’t clog the floor and know how to pass? The stakes would be pretty low; Portland would remain unable to circumvent its own flaws and triumphantly battle through a ruthless playoff bracket. But they might be incrementally better than they are now, guaranteed a spot in the postseason, with pleasant vibes carrying them forward.
The other key side effect, assuming every other move happens as it has, is that Enes Kanter and Doug McDermott would still be on the Thunder instead of enjoying Westbrook-free serenity in midtown Manhattan. How would Anthony being in Portland affect Paul George in Oklahoma? Besides more shot opportunities, it’s hard to say. Assuming Billy Donovan chose to stagger his two best players, George would have more time on units that’d call for him to be one of the dozen best players in the world. The team's defense might be even better than it already is.
Westbrook could also spend more time going Full Westbrook, even though Full Westbrook as we knew it last year might be a permanent thing of the past.
B. Gordon Hayward signs with the Miami Heat
Would Kyrie Irving express interest in re-signing with the Boston Celtics if Hayward chose a different team, or were Al Horford’s harmonious style, stable ownership, and Brad Stevens' genius already enough? If not, the Celtics would likely be in the middle of the Eastern Conference with Marcus Smart starting at point guard and Terry Rozier playing 30 minutes a night. They'd disintegrate when Horford hit the bench, and any long-term injury that'd keep him out would be fatal. Also, Jae Crowder would still be around, likely clogging a pipeline that's seen Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown flourish.
If Hayward is healthy, what does Miami’s roster look like? (WHERE IS KELLY OLYNYK?!?) Is Miami better than it is right now or would Hayward struggle within the cramped confines of a Hassan Whiteside-Justise Winslow frontcourt? Even if they didn’t want to re-sign James Johnson or Dion Waiters with Hayward in tow, the Heat might still turn to decreasingly unconventional means, perhaps permanently plopping the one-time All-Star at the four, and having guards like Goran Dragic and Wayne Ellington set ball screens for him 35 feet from the basket.
C. Paul George is traded to the Boston Celtics
Things have so far worked out fine in Boston, but let me crawl out on a limb and declare that this team would be really freaking good if they somehow had Paul George, healthy Hayward, Irving, and Horford on the same team. Sub George for Tatum right now and they’re (maybe but not definitely) a better regular-season team. Their ceiling elevates on both ends in the postseason.
The more important ripple effect here is with Westbrook and the Thunder. Does he sign his extension or demand a trade? What does professional basketball in Oklahoma City even look like? And where are the Indiana Pacers? They don’t have Victor Oladipo (a hipster’s MVP candidate if there ever was one) or Domantas Sabonis. Their optimism would instead spout from Tatum’s magical touch and any other assets Kevin Pritchard could pry from Danny Ainge.
Even though this exercise is purely hypothetical, I’m far too lazy to trace imaginary steps and figure out what Boston’s roster would actually look like, but if the Celtics’ starting five somehow had four All-Stars and Jaylen Brown, um, that team would probably go to the Finals.
3. So, Who Isn’t Shooting Threes?
The highly scientific requirements to answer this question are such: A) a player has to launch no more than one three per game, B) he must average at least 12 minutes, and C) he needs to have appeared in at least 20 games. Here are the 49 players who qualify.
If you hold those benchmarks up against last season (and raise the minimum number of games to 55) that number rises by 12 players. Five years ago that same list had 99 players on it. For those counting at home, with my admittedly arbitrary qualifiers, that means the number of players (who actually play) who don’t use the three-point line is about half what it was during LeBron James’ third season in Miami—hard evidence of a revolution that’s been identified in real time.
Photo by Shanna Lockwood - USA TODAY Sports
Let’s go back to this year’s group, which reads like an endangered species list. How many players on there are useful despite their inability/unwillingness to shoot threes? If we first look at total minutes played, Ben Simmons unsurprisingly ranks first and is a revelatory prospect who's simultaneously defying convention while meeting his expectations. From there we’re infested by a crap ton of traditional big men who impact the game in other areas. They rebound, protect the rim, and set screens. Some space the floor by diving through the paint. Some are still dangerous at the elbow, and can engineer decent offense with their vision and a mid-range jump shot. A very small handful do damage with their back to the basket.
The non-bigs here are exactly who you’d expect: T.J. McConnell, Kyle Anderson, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Shaun Livingston, Tony Allen, Ish Smith, Kidd-Gilchrist, Dejounte Murray, etc. Omri Casspi is on there for some reason, too, somehow posting the highest True Shooting percentage of his career and the lowest three-point rate (The. Warriors. Are. Not. Fair.)
Over a third of everyone listed is at least 29 years old; five years from now this register will probably be half as long as it is today. This is foreseeable and a little depressing. The three-point shot is a game-changing roller-coaster, and when a collection of great shooters help frame the court in a way that broadens driving and passing lanes, the aesthetics can be breathtaking. (The. Warriors. Are. Not. Fair.)
I also just enjoy watching guys like Kidd-Gilchrist and Hollis-Jefferson—those who stand out with idiosyncratic limitations—but if you’re trying to win a championship right now it’s hard to justify their presence in your rotation. None of this is new, but stopping to think about what it means for basketball’s future every so often is necessary. I don’t want every team to play like the Rockets even though no team in the world is more entertaining.
4. Houston’s Angles are Ridiculous
Speaking of the Rockets, I’ve thought about this pass almost every day since it happened:
Like, what the hell? I have so many questions, starting with: In the moment: when did Chris Paul first believe that flinging a one-handed cross-court pass—directly parallel with the baseline—would actually work? Was it born from frustration or design?
As the shot clock ticks on, Tarik Black appears unsure of what he’s supposed to do. Paul directs him to set a down screen for Trevor Ariza, but Ariza instead jogs away in an attempt to drag his man to the weakside corner. Black then runs up to set a ball screen for Paul. There’s six freaking seconds on the clock and not even two dribbles into his assault Paul rifles the ball at an impossibly difficult and rare angle to create a wide-open three on the other side of the floor.
As the pick-and-roll unfolds, Thabo Sefolosha points for Royce O’Neale to stay in the paint and help defend what, in all likelihood, will either be a shot from Paul or Black. Does Paul see this and know it means Sefolosha is about to drop half a step toward the baseline to worry about Ariza in the corner? How is he so smart?!?
Paul and James Harden combine to average 19 assists per game. They’re second and third in the league in that category, respectively. But the Rockets only rank 12th in assist percentage and 29th in passes per game. They’re 28th in secondary assists and 13th in potential assists. That’s partly due to the fact that no team isolates more frequently than Houston. They maximize the space provided by their collection of human catapults and take advantage of the virtuous one-on-one skills possessed by their dual MVP candidates. (Not only do they isolate more than anybody else, no team is more efficient when attacking that way. This team is absurd.)
But Houston’s offense doesn’t peak when the ball is dribbled. Jaw-dropping, spontaneous passes made at angles very few players can even dream about allow the Rockets to generate efficient shots that catch defenses off balance. The surgical precision seen above is not attainable for most guards around the league, but it's basically second nature for Paul and Harden. Quick sidebar: Harden is probably going to win his first MVP this season, but not enough words can be written about Paul, who’s re-asserted himself as the second-best floor general in basketball and an automatic All-NBA member. Passes like that one help explain why.
5. J.J. Redick’s Game Isn’t Supposed to Expand, but it Has
At 33 years old, Redick is playing 33.5 minutes a night for a team that’s averaging 103.2 possessions per 48 minutes when he’s on the floor. Redick has never played this fast and his minutes have never been this high. As everyone fawns over Paul distancing himself from the formulaic style he enjoyed in L.A.,, Redick is experiencing the exact same thing in a role that doesn’t allow him to step on the gas whenever he wants.
Instead of seeing his responsibilities narrow, Redick’s doing more stuff in different ways. According to Synergy Sports, the percentage of all his jumpers that were off the dribble last season was 39 percent. Right now, that number is 47 percent, somewhat-expected uptick that's lowered his accuracy and can partially be attributed to greener teammates.
But heading into the season, without Paul for the first time in half a decade, I wasn’t sure Redick could do much beyond space the floor while Simmons ran high pick-and-rolls or Joel Embiid corralled entry passes on the block. Glue him to the corner and run him off a bunch of pindowns and Philly couldn’t be criticized for misunderstanding their marquee free agent acquisition. Instead, they’ve expanded his responsibilities in some very smart ways.
The ball feels like it’s in his hands far more than it was in Los Angeles. Instead of running through an endless maze of bodies, Redick's slicing defenses open with direct hand-offs and a bit more pick-and-roll action, all ultimately designed to turn the defense’s brain into toast.
Knowing the Lakers want to switch everything, Philly has Redick’s DHO turn into a staggered screen-and-roll. But Kentavious Caldwell-Pope doesn’t stop his pursuit—because Redick is that scary—momentarily putting two on the ball and allowing Redick to find Robert Covington wide open on the opposite wing. Kyle Kuzma switches off Amir Johnson in time to run Covington off the three-point line, but his off-balanced helps introduce the ball to the basket.
Whenever he sets a ball screen, two defenders are forced to communicate in an instant. Should they switch or fight through? Sometimes that question goes unanswered and both follow Redick. And sometimes the split-second hesitation is all a monster like Simmons needs to spark a match and pour gasoline all over the court.
Philadelphia is not good when Simmons and Embiid aren’t on the floor, but Redick stabilizes things as best he can, preventing bad from becoming apocalyptic. His assist rate in those minutes soars up to 25.8 (with a dependable 5.67 assist-to-turnover ratio) and his True Shooting is an uncanny 68.2. Covington is the only Sixer with a higher usage percentage.
All this is a pleasant surprise. I, personally, thought Redick was entering a different phase of his career after Joe Ingles crushed him in the playoffs. But in a new environment, as an elder statesman, Redick has shown that he's far more than a shooter, in a league that should be able to make good use of his talent for years to come.
6. C.J. Miles and The Babies
Since O.G. Anunonby cracked Toronto's starting lineup and Delon Wright dislocated his right shoulder (two events that basically happened at the same time, about a week before Thanksgiving), Raptors head coach Dwane Casey decided to hitch 30-year-old C.J. Miles to a bunch of children. Norm Powell (24 years old), Jakob Poeltl (22 and in need of a better nickname than "Austrian Hammer"), Fred VanVleet (23), and Pascal Siakam (23).
This is Toronto's second-most common five-man group over the past month, and they've been absolutely dreadful on both ends. But guess what? I don't care! Stubborn Casey is good sometimes. Yes, the Raptors should go back to a Lowry + Bench unit that makes opposing second units weep—swap Lowry in for Miles and that exact same supporting cast crushes everybody—but this makes me feel like Miles is a lovable babysitter that you can't, in good conscience, stay mad at.
Playing Miles at the three as opposed to the four doesn't make a ton of sense, but using him to space the floor for an inexperienced collection of players Toronto will need in the playoffs is fine enough for now.
7. Austin Rivers is an Isolation Genius...or Something
Thanks to a slew of notable injuries that have quickly transformed the perennial playoff-contending Los Angeles Clippers into the Los Angeles Clippers, Austin Rivers has been thrust into a role far greater than his ability can handle. But despite being an inefficient, borderline first-option with shaky shot selection, Rivers is also one of the league’s top one-on-one players.
Photo by Kim Klement - USA TODAY Sports
According to Synergy Sports, Rivers averaged 0.94 points per possession in isolation situations last year, a figure that placed him in the 73rd percentile. That’s not bad, even though it was likely boosted an unquantifiable degree thanks to Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Jamal Crawford, J.J. Redick, Marreese Speights and even Ray Felton occupying the opposition's attention in various ways.
This year, surrounded by G-League talent more nights than not, Rivers’ isolation numbers are even better. He’s averaging 1.05 points per possession (74th percentile) and is actually more efficient than established All-Stars like Kyrie Irving, Russell Westbrook, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and DeMar DeRozan.
Some of this is because the career 35.5 percent three-point shooter has canned 40.7 percent of his outside attempts—including 42.7 percent of his 3.0 pull ups per game. And some of it’s because he never ever ever turns it over. But few players symbolize the “million dollar move, 10 cent finish” expression better than Rivers, who’s a master at breaking his man down off the dribble, entering a crowd of rim protectors, and lofting a prayer towards the basket.
Given that this is such an uncertain time for the Clippers, swapping Rivers out for a second-round pick and expiring money (he has a $12.6 million player option for next year) should be an objective for their front office. Maybe there's a general manager out there who sees these numbers (particularly that impressive shooting) and wonders if Rivers can help his playoff team in a seven-game series.
8. Cleveland’s Juiciest Asset Is Not Really That Juicy
The Brooklyn Nets are, officially, no longer atrocious. Heading into Wednesday night’s action, they had a higher winning percentage than 10 teams despite not having their opening night backcourt starters for most of the season. They’re below average on both sides of the ball, but only three teams launch threes more frequently and only one owns a faster pace.
Brooklyn’s starting five—DeMarre Carroll, Spencer Dinwiddie, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Tyler Zeller, and Allen Crabbe—has obliterated opponents by 25.3 points per 100 possessions since Kenny Atkinson turned to it right before Thanksgiving, and adding Jahlil Okafor, Nik Stauskas, and healthy D’Angelo Russell to the mix will only improve their depth and diversify their offensive options.
When teams start to really tank in March and April, the Nets will be busting their ass to win games and get better at everything they do. All this is bad news for the Cleveland Cavaliers. What was once their crown jewel for Kyrie Irving might now be Zach Collins (who's actually playing pretty well, but that's beside the point).
Does this mean Koby Altman should aggressively shop his best asset around the league? It’s probably still a little too early for that, considering their current rhythm and fact that they’ve yet to see what Isaiah Thomas looks like in their rotation. But the odds of that pick staying in Cleveland feel a lot lower today than they were a couple months ago.
The pick’s dropping value also changes what it’s worth. That means strapping a top-three protection to it and checking on Aaron Gordon’s availability is far more likely than getting someone like Paul George or DeMarcus Cousins. Realistic targets are now closer to the Harrison Barnes, Batum, or Rodney Hood mold (a lottery pick for any of those three is still a dramatic overpay, even though they’d help the Cavs match up better against the Golden State Warriors or Houston Rockets in the Finals).
A couple weeks ago, before the Memphis Grizzlies fired David Fizdale, I wrote that Cleveland should give up the Nets pick for Marc Gasol. I didn’t believe they ever would, but now it’s not so crazy! When you have LeBron James doing UNBELIEVABLE LeBron James things every night, holding back as a front office feels criminal.
What’s the worst that could happen? They lose in the Finals, he leaves, and they don’t have the 10th pick in the draft? How much better off would Cleveland be if they hold onto that pick, lose in the Finals and watch him leave? They were arguably the worst franchise in the league during the four seasons he spent in Miami. Dark days lie ahead no matter what. The best thing they can do is go all-in and capitalize on a historic season from an all-time icon. Trade the pick, Cleveland! Convince him to stay! You're screwed if he leaves even if you have it!
9. David Nwaba is a Good NBA Player
Every time I watch Nwaba he makes three to five effort-intensive plays that makes Chicago feel like a competitive team. He’s just so damn physical, a tenacious rebounder who defends, draws fouls, finishes around the rim, and never turns it over.The Bulls (yes, the Bulls) are outscoring opponents by 4.5 points per 100 possessions with Nwaba on the floor, performing like a 53-win team. He’s awesome, and aside from the fact that he doesn’t shoot threes and there won't be a ton of money to go around this summer, one of the league’s 30 teams would be smart to offer present the restricted free agent with an offer sheet.
10. Finding Hope in Memphis
Almost exactly one year ago, Deyonta Davis tore the plantar fascia in his left foot, a devastating injury for any human being but particularly savage for someone who plays professional basketball and weighs 240 pounds. It essentially ended his rookie season.
In year two, as Marc Gasol’s primary backup thanks to Brandan Wright’s nagging groin injury, Davis is averaging 3.9 points and 3.2 rebounds per game. But in limited time he’s shown decent mobility on the defensive end and a feathery touch around the basket.
As someone who isn't fast enough to scamper around the perimeter, Memphis has him drop defending almost every pick-and-roll. Here he is stepping up to force Abrines to pass to Jerami Grant, then sliding back and forcing a turnover.
Now, against an actual playmaker who knew how to string his dribble out a bit longer, this sequence would probably not have the same result. Davis struggles against bigs who can shoot, too, forcing the Grizzlies to late switch or surrender open threes.
But according to Cleaning the Glass, whenever he's on the floor Memphis allows a ridiculous 11.3 fewer points per 100 possessions. (Opponents are also barely hitting threes when Davis is in the game, so, yeah, that's kind of meaningful and has nothing to do with his defense.)
On the other end, he's shooting 79 percent at the rim. That's really good! And aside from the natural hiccup as he learns to read the floor, taking shots as a roller when he should hit the open man, there are examples of him identifying what he needs to do and executing immediately.
Before he even catches Ben McLemore's pass out of Washington's trap, Davis' eyes are set on the opposite wing, initiating a sequence that leads to an open three and one of the most beautiful possessions Memphis has experienced all season.
He's still a project, but one who only played 600 minutes in college and hardly saw the floor last season. Davis is shooting 72.7 percent whenever he rolls to the basket; the day Gasol leaves Memphis will be dark, but Davis is beginning to flash the talent of someone who deserves a chance to *attempt* to fill those humongous shoes.
The Outlet Pass: Charlotte's Tailspin, Cavs Trade Targets, and NBA What-Ifs published first on http://ift.tt/2pLTmlv
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