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Fred Vasseur: The possible Champion-maker?

Okay, this is an analysis I did, it’s kinda crazy, but I don’t know, maybe anyone else agrees. It basically hypotheses how a series of conversations and decisions could lead to a Ferrari Championship soon and how Fred Vasseur has a pivotal role on everything.

Hang on, it’s a long road.

Where did this come from?

In 2022, Charles was close to win the championship. He started off the season amazingly, pressuring the new world champion and earning Ferrari valuable points. But the second half of the season was a disaster masterclass: between Charles’ mistakes and Ferrari’s terrible decisions, the championship slipped away. There was a breaking point that I believe gave Charles the last push:

This was terrible. Ferrari had screw up and after that Mattia had the audacity to scold him like a child on international television. He knew he wasn’t Nepo Boy, but he probably never expected to be disrespected like this so lightly. To give more depth to this analysis, let’s talk a little bit about who appears to be Charles Leclerc.

A kid with a dream

Charles Leclerc was born on October 16, 1997 in Monte Carlo, Monaco, to a hairdresser mother and cars enthusiast father. His mother, Pascale and his father Hervé got together when her oldest son, Lorenzo, was around 2 years old. From this union came Charles and younger brother Arthur. Hervé was not only a fan of racing, he got as far as driving in F3, but he had to drop that dream. Living in Monaco without being as wealthy as the top of the food chain, Hervé relied on Charles’ grandparents to sponsor Charles’ racing career. The grandparents were wealthy and while Charles and Arthur were little, they were able to support both of their grand kids.

Time passed, Charles ended up being great, and the wealthy grandparents weren’t wealthy enough for the next step. So Hervé decided to get his son a sponsorship, he contacted his friend Bianchi, who had his son Jules in a great position with Ferrari Academy at the moment. Jules was a star in the making, so when he approached Ferrari to take a look at Charles, they said yes. Like that, one of the Leclercs got the money and support needed, the other had to wait. Arthur ended up having to quit karting for some time because the money they had wasn’t enough. His background marked something, he would never be one of them, so will have to work hard to be someone.

At this stage of life, Charles learned something: The only way up is surrendering yourself with the right people.

The teammates

Charles made it to Ferrari in 2019, to take the still warm seat that the last champion of Ferrari left, Kimi Räikkönen. But the big shoes weren’t the difficult part, Sebastian Vettel, four times World Champion with Red Bull Racing, became his teammate. Even though DTS made it look worse than it was, it’s still true that the two drivers pushed each other a lot, which was great to bring better results. The car was not the greatest, but it still delivered and the drivers got the chance to do their jobs. And they did it great, compared to what the standard could be next to the Mercedes-Hamilton dominance. In the two seasons they raced together, Charles proved Sebastian that he was different, that he had that something that made him special. Even though Charles out performed him, Sebastian really grew fond of him.

In 2021, Sebastian moved to Aston Martin and Charles got a new teammate: Carlos Sainz Jr. Things got complicated for Charles here. With Sebastian, Charles had something important which was pull. Even if the other had been with Ferrari for years, Charles was the little prince in the making. He may didn’t have many sponsors, he may have come from a less privileged background than Sebastian, he may not be a World Champion, but he had made contacts inside Ferrari with his hard work. Once he’s father got him Jules, Charles made a lot of friends thanks to his raw talent, dedication, discipline and determination. But he didn’t actively searched for contacts that could make his career better.

When Carlos Sainz Jr. son of Rally World Champion Carlos Sainz Sr. came in the picture, Charles learned the hard way that he was not playing at the same level. Carlos had a lot more sponsors, experience and better friends. Carlos grew up filthy rich and privileged, he was friends with the best there is in motorsport, he was the incredibly talented son of a Champion and he was given the best opportunities since he was in the womb. Charles didn’t have that and when the time came, it made a difference. The sponsors that gave Ferrari the money weren’t interested in him, they were looking at Carlos, and the fact that the Spaniard was not a bad driver didn’t help. When Charles started leading the championship in 2022, Carlos was way behind him, and the money weighed heavily compared to Charles’ talent. Mattia Binotto made the decision of developing the upgrades of the car towards Carlos’ preferences on the second half of the season, breaking up the relationship he had with Charles.

The right man

Even though second place is not bad, Charles couldn’t help but see Max Verstappen, long time rival, become World Champion twice, being the same age than him. When things got bad in 2022, Charles decided to listen to his father’s teachings, because the only way up is with the right people. He spoke to Fred Vasseur, who used to be his Team Principal in Alfa Romeo when he first started. If we look at it from outside, Fred was essential in Charles pass to Ferrari, helping him look good with a car that wasn’t the best. They were a good team together, so if we can see that from outside, he surely noticed that himself. Fred was the start of a change that would make Charles worthy of his Ill Predestinato title. Fred had half a year to pull all of his strings and get things done, starting by convincing Ferrari to let go of Binotto and hire him. Charles only had to be a good soldier and do what he was told.

The trifecta of a Champion

I. The person:

Charles had a persona outside the driver and something important is to understand that that persona along the racing driver is what gets you the best sponsors and connections. But your personal life can also be distracting, so sometimes you need to let go of people you may don’t want to, but have to. Charles broke up with a girlfriend he had for 3 years, whom he shared an apartment with and who seemed to be the one. People liked her and his cute ‘normal boy’ life was good to attract fans, but a girlfriends consumes time and attention which doesn’t translate in money. Probably, one of the first things that Fred told him was “loose the girlfriend”. Why? Because he was a 24 years old and he had to focus on his career, he didn’t need a personal life, at least not a real one until he got things done. Here is where Charles public persona started to grow. In December of 2022, Charles dumped his girlfriend, who he may have loved, but not as much as his (and his family’s) career. He became more popular thanks to being single and since the sport was raising in popularity too, he benefited from that.

He started to get assisted in everything that meant PR, he got a better stylist, made better investments with his money and got a girl that wouldn’t take up time. I really like Alex, but you’ll understand with this analysis why I think they might be PR. Regarding the clothing, he started showing off great labels on his instagram page and that gave him engagement. This helped his overall popularity even more and raised his value outside the track and the motorsport world. His millions came to good use when he decided to invest in a good PR team, but not only that, he created his own ice cream brand, why do that? Easy, he needs the money and the contacts that come with enterprises. This deal gives him a secure income outside the motorsport industry and the chance of becoming the business man that can interact with the others (that put their money on drivers and teams) it gives him the status in the business world.

But all of this falls off with the wrong girlfriend. Charles made a bond with his fans through his ‘normal boy’ image, the boy who played games, dated a hometown girl and had a hairdresser mom. Along with his loyalty to Ferrari, this type of image is something difficult to drop out from. People associate humbleness with core traits of a person, dropping that would mean becoming a sell out or worse, a traitor to his working-class fellow fanbase. He can’t date a model, he can’t date a famous girl, because it’ll look bad, but he can’t also date for real because he was told not to. So his PR agency got him the perfect one: Alexandra. She’s an elegant hometown girl, who has her own family money and career, and manages a low profile. She’s everything he needs, she can enjoy the lifestyle, make good money, keep up her career and he doesn’t need to worry about her and their relationship. She’s not dependent on him and she knows the upper class world and how to handle it. She doesn’t need maintenance or training and she knows how to play her part. She also seems very friendly and they probably get along well, which makes things easier. It’s a win-win situation, he keeps his image and she can enjoy the lifestyle while still doing her things.

Leo was the latest winning move, Charles is old enough for kids and people expect that from him (it works with Max’s image) but he’s not going to have a kid with Alex, so a puppy is the best next move. It gives him the chance to shine on a better light and he likes dogs, so it all works out well. His fatherly ways towards younger drivers, like Ollie or Aurelia, also help a lot to sell this image of maturity and leadership. He’s the driver number one, the loyal boy to Ferrari. This added to the ‘Lestappen Gate’ from 2023 only reinforce the idea of Charles being Ill Predestinato. He fights for the championship, he’s a team player, he takes the youngsters under his wing and when the chance to a seat on Red Bull’s rocket ship arose he still stayed loyal to Ferrari. He started to become an icon.

He has it all: the popularity outside motorsport, the contact with the business world, the love from his fans and the loyalty from the Tifosi.

II. The team:

Fred got Charles on the right path to freshen up his public image and raise his value, now he had to give him the team to pull off a championship. 2023 was still a season of change, but the first win in a long time came in Singapore, ruining a perfect season from Red Bull and giving a little peek of what they were on to. But the win came with the wrong driver, for Fred’s whole project at least, and it made the rest of the steps a little bit messy. For everything to work, Fred needed Charles and a legend. Why? Because he needed to be able to have a win-win situation at hand. Making Charles the first world champion since 2007 would be great, but making a legend in motorsport do it instead also works. The main point is to win again, and do it with a ground breaking gameplay, so either the Golden Boy wins or a legend retires in greatness. Carlos Sainz Jr. has to go.

Fred talks with Toto Wolff, Mercedes Team Principal and Lewis Hamilton. Toto needs the seat for a younger talent (probably Kimi Antonelli) and Lewis is ready for the last bit of his career as a driver. Fred’s proposal is perfect, Toto gets his young lineup and Lewis gets the chance to pull a Schumacher. The news gets leaked very early on, probably by the Sainzs who lost in all of this scheme and need to better up Carlos’ image to get a new seat, and the whole deal backfired a bit. They solved it, Carlos understood that playing the cards he was playing wasn’t good for his career and Ferrari’s PR team worked hard to solve the problem. Now Fred has the legend and the kid, he needs to work inside the garage. He did a literal purge of incompetence, better mechanics, better engineers, better staff, better everything. He got the sponsorship from HP, that gives Ferrari everything it needs to never have to look at a price twice. It pays Lewis and it can pay a posible Adrian Newey. He took out Xavi and brought Bryan, a guy that was already on the team and that could be the thing Charles needed to perform better. The pitstops became faster and cleaner. The strategies got more efficient.

He started building a new, better team. One that can bring Charles to the top or Lewis to a path of redemption before retirement.

III. The car:

There’s just one thing missing in all of this, which is a championship winning car. The SF-24 is not a bad car, that’s among the many reasons why Carlos won in Australia and Charles in Monaco. Also why they been getting a lot of podiums and Ollie could pull off such a great race. But for it to be the best car, Fred needs two things: 2026 regulations and Red Bull to fail. Here comes the last part of the project that Fred still hasn’t accomplished yet and where this analysis shifts to a more speculative approach. 2026 regulations assure Ferrari a new opportunity to build a better car, their remarkable quality is the engine, which is what makes a difference in Qualifying for both Ferrari and Hass. But the car has some issues with aerodynamics, they solved that a bit, making the SF-24 a lot less of a tyre eater than the SF-23, but it still can get better. Solving this issue could guarantee a great qualifying pace and great race pace, converting that into wins with the right strategy.

But the regulations aren’t the only thing that could help, they also need get someone that can make that ideal car a reality. Adrian Newey is the man for that, not only because he’s the best, but also because taking him to Ferrari would mean that Red Bull loses one of his biggest assets, naturally leading to a drop in performance. This closes the gap and can even mean surpassing Red Bull, which is the dominant team at the moment. McLaren kind of hick-hacked this part of the project, bringing a great car this year, but Fred still has the chance to come out victorious by the end of 2025. If he gets Newey by the end of 2024, he can assure the downfall of Red Bull and the championship-winning car for 2026.

A man with a plan

If everything plays out as I stipulated, Ferrari could win a championship in 2026, even maybe 2025. This win can’t only be seen as simple success, it’d be a historic achievement in Ferrari’s lifespan and a game changer for everyone involved, specially Fred. Whether the championship is won by Lewis or Charles, the man that brought it home would be Fred. As Schumacher-Todt did before, F1 would never forget this moment, Ferrari winning again after almost 20 years.

All of it thanks to a man with a plan.

Let me know what you guys think!

#charles leclerc #carlos sainz #ferrari #formula 1 #max verstappen #fred vasseur #adrian newey #sebastian vettel #lewis hamilton #mercedes benz #mercedes amg f1 #toto wolff #mattia binotto #alfa romeo

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