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heavyweightandrealestate · 4 years

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Real estate was deemed an essential workplace during COVID-19 - here's 3 reasons why.

Real estate was deemed an essential workplace during COVID-19 – here’s 3 reasons why.

Last night, the Ontario government released a list of all businesses they consider to be essential during a Covid-19 induced shutdown-ish thing. Some doomsayers have told me the general economy has sort-of been ground to a halt. Some organizations seem to be salvaging with the ostensible “work from home” strategy.

The challenge with real estate is that it’s functionally impossible to do remotely.…

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#condos #coronavirus #coronavirus real estate market #covid 19 effect on real esate #covid19 #DJIA #dow jones #real estate #real estate investing #realestate #stock market #toronto condo investment #toronto real estate

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heavyweightandrealestate · 4 years

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Watch for these 3 supply flood indicators in the real estate market.

I had someone inquire about last week’s 3-pointer videos on Instagram (which I haven’t posted the follow-up article to, sorry). The inquiry was specifically about the meaning of a supply-flood, and how exactly that may take shape. A flood, or other type of supply-shock is probably the biggest vulnerability the real estate market faces right now, and potentially the only thing that could cause…

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#coronavirus real estate #coronavirus real estate market #covid 19 effect on real esate #covid19 #covid19 real estate impact #covid19 toronto real estate #investing #investment broker #investment sales #real estate #real estate market

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heavyweightandrealestate · 4 years

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3 protection mechanisms for transacting real estate in a volatile financial market

1. Don’t try to time the market.

Buy and sell in the same economy. Trying to create or carve out an arbitrage in a volatile market is where people get burned. Unless you’re an economist, an actuary, or write financial instruments for a living, arbitrage is fickle. One of the important ignored nuances around this concept is that if you’re selling, and your sale is challenging, then that will…

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#canadian real estate #canadian real estate bubble #commercial real estate #coronavirus real estate #covid 19 effect on real esate #covid19 #covid19 real estate impact #dispositions #greater toronto area #GTA #real estate #realtor #safe real estate investment #toronto condos

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heavyweightandrealestate · 4 years

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The 3 best real estate listings in a shut-down spring market

3-Pointer

Below is a list of the 3 types of listings that will perform the best while the spring market is on pause, in the event of a shutdown comparable to Italy or Wuhan. I think that we’re currently at the onset of what seems to be an interesting shift in consumer psychology, where the attentiveness to “hot spring market” narrative is being usurped by “lockdown” +/- “DJIA limit down”… it…

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#commercial real estate #coro #coronavirus #coronavirus real estate #covid #covid19 #real estate #real estate investing #realtor

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heavyweightandrealestate · 4 years

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3-pointer | The 3 housing buyers most impacted by current market conditions.

I’m going to outline the 3 housing buyer groups most impacted by current market conditions… which are:

house prices rising

stock market declining

declining interest rates

If you’d prefer to read this in tweets click here: https://twitter.com/WTFoch/status/1237721132113018886

If you’d prefer to watch me talk about this in less than 1 minute, check out my IG story: https://www.instagram.com/danie…

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#first time homebuyers #greater toronto area #GTA #investors #real estate investing #real estate investment #retirees #small-cap investors

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heavyweightandrealestate · 4 years

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3 hidden ways coronavirus is going to impact the real estate market.

Coronavirus, more formally known as the disease Covid-19, and the infection Sars-Cov-2, just became a lot more real for North Americans, as it’s finally permeated our two favourite things, the economy, and pop-culture. There is a travel ban between Europe & USA. All major indices are in bear-market territory. The NBA is shutting down, an NBA all star is infected (and touched a bunch of…

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#canada #coronavirus #coronavirus real estate #covid19 #GTA #investment #real estate #toronto

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heavyweightandrealestate · 4 years

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Municipalities (cities, towns, regions, etc.) are more than just a place to live. They’re a firm within the economy, and like every other firm in the economy, they want to sell you something. The way that they sell you something is through a supply chain that starts with the land registry system and ends with a real estate transaction, in which you absorb a unit of housing through purchase or lease.

I am fascinated by small suburban towns because their roles within a regional context are largely independent of policy. They depend on infrastructure, and that’s about it. Alternatively, the growth of these towns rests on the laurels of urban economics more than urban planning. Sure, regional infrastructure plays a role here, but let us set that aside to really focus on a meaningful reality that most people don’t really ever choose to look at.

Municipalities exist to make progress. A fundamental principal of economics is that “firms exist to make profit.” Urban economics, much like labour economics, is a subset of this theory that evaluates the relationship that space and proximity have with the revenue and cost structure of operating a firm. It is essentially a nuanced evaluation of location in the economic equation of firms.

Housing ought to be evaluated similarly, and it is. Municipalities, as such, compete for the attention of residents. Increasingly so, actually, among the de-industrialization of the western world. This phenomena is especially true in Canada, where the majority of our GDP has something to do with housing.

Cities can compete for your residency on a variety of criteria:

being a good place to live

having reasonable taxes

being well located (a tough one to change)

having employment within it

I’m going to find out as much as I can about the why we make these decisions, and I think I’ve kind of figured out how I’m going to go about that.

Instagram as a primary data collection tool for millennials:

Yesterday, I used my instagram story to release a series of polls, and it actually proved quite effective as a data collection tool. Interestingly, a lot of millennials still live in the suburbs, despite better employment prospects in the city. What makes this more clear is when you look at the why these people live in the suburbs – it’s to stay close to, or within their family homes. I will follow up with some pie-in-a-pie charts as I followed some of the subset groups, as I am able to follow populations through the polling – it’s just going to take me a while.

Firms exist to make profit. Towns exist to make progress. Municipalities (cities, towns, regions, etc.) are more than just a place to live. They're a firm within the economy, and like every other firm in the economy, they want to sell you something.

#data collection #data science #durham region #greater toronto area #GTA #instagram #municipalities #peel region #primary research #small towns #toronto #towns #urban economics #urban planning #york region

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heavyweightandrealestate · 4 years

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The architectural role of small towns in urban areas

I recently had a conversation about this with my brother, who is a landscape architect. We’re working together on a project right now, and we were looking at a house called “The Millbrook House” trying to figure out if we should set up a visit for inspiration. It almost felt out of place to be putting an exceptional, massive home in the Greater Toronto Area… as thought it didn’t deserve to be…

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#brooklin #caledon #chicago #cottage country #fake lake #g20 #g8 #georgina #greater toronto area #greenwich #GTA #hamptons #lake simcoe #millbrook #muskoka #new york city #skyscrapers #the millbrook house #toronto

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heavyweightandrealestate · 4 years

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Planning adaptive reuse: tomorrow's wasteful nature is today's urban planning

Planning adaptive reuse: tomorrow’s wasteful nature is today’s urban planning

I was on the phone this morning with an individual who is looking to put two large residential rental towers in the middle of designated employment land that are not yet serviced. Naturally, the municipality did not like this idea. Who’s surprised?

This site is located about 500m across the road from a power centre. It is currently home to a farm. The road is a major arterial road, which has…

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#adaptive reuse #real estate #urban planning

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heavyweightandrealestate · 4 years

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Being half-Swiss, I spent a lot of time in Switzerland, as a military conscript there. I was captivated by the mountains every moment I was there. My Omi (grandmother), a Swiss immigrant to Canada, seems to be similarly emotive towards the large bodies of water we have here. This fascinated me, and has always given me a sense of wonder towards exactly why these systems have played such an interesting role in the development of North America.

Harbours have been a theme ubiquitous in the formation of settlements and cities for the majority of mankind’s existence. Water was a little more simple than land for the vast movement of goods, in that the advent of wind-powered vessels pre-dated the industrial revolution and therefore, rail. As a result, we (humans) built cities in places it made sense for us to be – close to goods, employment, and travel. These places were harbours. Most of the notable cities in the old world evolved in this fashion. Rome. Athens. Lisbon. Istanbul. Dubrovnik. Tianjin. Stokholm. St. Petersburg. Alexandria. Even our new world is defined by the existence of harbours: Chicago. Quebec City. Halifax. Boston. New York. Miami. Yes, even our beloved centre of the universe, Toronto.

When harbours are not the heart

Now, we could be seeing a trend in which sprawl has pushed populations away from the core. This is especially true for those economically downsizing, namely boomers. These are individuals who built their lives in areas where harbours were the heart of a municipality. In Toronto, and the Greater Toronto Area, this means proximity to Lake Ontario.

In small-town Lake Simcoe, I don’t see much of a sea-faring international trade in the future of our harbours, and I don’t see much of it in their past, either. In our new decade of 2020 and beyond, I don’t really see international trade playing an exceptionally large role in the formation of harbours, nor industrial economies, nor cities in Canada for the foreseeable future.

78% of our GDP is the product of something we cannot export, housing.

There was a brief stint between Toronto’s first renaissance and the invention of refrigeration in which Lake Simcoe provided some of the most fruitful ice harvests in the GTA. Today, Lake Simcoe’s harbours serve one purpose – recreation – and they do a damn good job at it.

Friday Harbour vs. Everyday Harbour

Friday Harbour is the epitome of bold, brilliant development that Innisfil has been able to catalyze upon the large droves of land left to them by their aforementioned infrastructure history. Georgina is left with an interesting alternative scenario, in which they have a handful of pre-existing harbours and marinas that have been secondary planned – most notably Jackson’s Point, The Maskinonge Urban Centre in Keswick, and Marina Estates in Pefferlaw. This could ultimately lead to a more democratic, infilled version of the same concept that Friday Harbour executed. I suspect this would likely pull away from the “resort” or “holiday” nature of the FH project, giving the harbour a more cohesive role in the everyday life of the municipality, if executed properly.

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Georgina’s Maskinonge Urban Centre and Jackson’s Point Secondary Plans call for up to 6 storeys of residential medium- and high-density on a mixed-use pallet. The marina from which Friday Harbour birthed was located in a large, malleable, undeveloped area, relatively removed from the urban core. Conversely, the Maskinonge Urban Centre is located smack dab in the middle of Georgina’s cottage-country corridor, along The Queensway (which is a sexier name for “Leslie Street”).

This is a pretty poetic reflection of the big planning dichotomy between Innisfil and Georgina.

Another example of big-land vs. big-plan

A harbour located at the heart of a municipality comes with both opportunity and challenge. Toronto’s joint-venture with sidewalk labs is a pretty strong testimony toward this.

Friday Harbour is unarguably a flawless execution of the highest and best use of the raw land it rest upon. As such, it’s probably not an exceptionally fair measuring stick for how Georgina may execute the role of its harbour in Keswick. Jackson’s Point’s Harbour may prove to require a middle-of-the-road approach to planning, in such that it has roots in the tourism economy, and is slightly removed from its walkable core. Some of the proposed (and failed) projects in Jackson’s Point are indicative of the nature of development in the area. Both positive and negative lessons can be learned here. I actually think that, with some flexibility on urban planning, we’re more likely to see streets like Shirlea, Bruce Street and Canal Road in Keswick evolve into a fee-simple Friday Harbour with detached homes. I think we’re all longing to see something on Lake Simcoe happen that gives us somewhere we can imagine we’re in the Florida Keys. The role of Shangri-La Lane and other infill attempts in this area could really push this concept forward as we see turnover occur. For now, we’ve got Friday Harbour, and it’s vintage brother Lagoon City, just outside of Brechin.

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I think this could be an exceptional segue into the role that planning can play in the economics of real estate, which is what I’ll be elaborating upon this week:

the role of urban economics in the affordability challenge – how municipal planning, and especially microurbanism, can play a role in affordable housing

the role of water, and waterfront, in wealth disparity, and perhaps the opportunity to use it as a solution similar to income-mixing in projects

examining the economics of waterfront streets in Georgina and Innisfil, and perhaps other areas within the GTA.

A tale of two shores – Harbours [Innisfil & Georgina] Being half-Swiss, I spent a lot of time in Switzerland, as a military conscript there. I was captivated by the mountains every moment I was there.

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heavyweightandrealestate · 4 years

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A Tale of Two Shores - Arteries, Highways & Regional Roads [Innisfil vs. Georgina]

A Tale of Two Shores – Arteries, Highways & Regional Roads [Innisfil vs. Georgina]

One of the easily ignorable differences in the future analysis of the Shores of Lake Simcoe is the differences in urban planning and settlement patterns over the course of the histories of these municipalities.

Both municipalities have their historic cores, with a couple of 190X homes densely put together to capitalize on some random enterprise in the middle of nowhere. Both municipalities had…

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heavyweightandrealestate · 4 years

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A tale of two shores - They're called "Skilled" trades for a reason. [Innisfil vs. Georgina]

A tale of two shores – They’re called “Skilled” trades for a reason. [Innisfil vs. Georgina]

A Tale of Two Shores – Chapter 2

See Chapter 1: How the GO Train may not change the future of Innisfil vs. Georgina

The first point of fascination for me in regards to these two municipalities is that they’re functionally very similar, and a

small detail in their past has made them ever so slightly different. That detail is proximity to a 400-series highway, which Innisfil has had since 1952,…

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heavyweightandrealestate · 4 years

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A tale of two shores - How the GO Train may not change the future of Innisfil & Georgina

A tale of two shores – How the GO Train may not change the future of Innisfil & Georgina

Investment capital is moving further and further away from the core. We’ve already seen it East & West along the 401. As a result, I find myself often providing detailed market analysis and planning reviews for clients in smaller and smaller municipalities.

I have a lot of groups looking for high-margin infill sites, and a lot of groups looking for bigger pieces of land. You have to do a lot…

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#georgina #go train #go train extension #go train line #go transit #highway 400 #highway 404 #innisfil #lake simcoe #metrolinx #the orbit #ttc

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heavyweightandrealestate · 4 years

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How we move: regional migration patterns along provincial highways

Stuck on the Highway

It’s just a cultural norm in the GTA that you can send a text and just say “stuck on the highway” and you’re automatically excused from being late. In the GTA, it seems that housing capital migration is “stuck on the highway”, too.

I had to spit out my conclusion quickly to avoid whining about infrastructure, so let me clarify:

As people move through the GTA, either via…

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heavyweightandrealestate · 4 years

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You settle somewhere so that you don't have to settle elsewhere.

You settle somewhere so that you don’t have to settle elsewhere.

I remember back when I was a gymbro (I still sort of am, just not fit), I bought a cool shirt that said “never settle” on it. I bought it because I thought it was reflective of the work ethic and motivation I had at the time. I didn’t really realize that it was more reflective of the upwardly-mobile millennial I was becoming as a university student. I jumped around in 4-month cycles for my entire…

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#400 #404 #427 #canada #canadian real estate #GTA #landscape architecture #markham #N6 #newmarket #northern gta #real estate investing #real estate sales #richmond hill #settlement #toronto #urban planners #urban planning #vaughan

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heavyweightandrealestate · 4 years

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The Uberification of Property is Computer-Assisted Real Estate vs. agent kick-backs

Those who know me and work closely with me know that I’m no stranger to spending (wasting) money on strange tech plays in the real estate space. My experience with it has given me a healthy dose of skepticism towards the idea that real estate will get an “uber” – that being a completely peer-to-peer transaction platform.

My thesis is that an Uber of real estate could happen by consumer consensus…

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#brokerage #computer assisted real estate #ibuyers #MLS #proptech #real estate #realtor.ca #startups #technology #treb #uber #zillow

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heavyweightandrealestate · 4 years

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Timing the housing market should be judged like timing the stock market

If you study people who really understand investing in companies, you can typically find some pretty sound fundamental analysis and systems for the valuation and investment of companies that can be purchased at a fair price. In your studies, you may come across a couple of gentlemen named Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger.

If you study people who really understand investing in real estate, you can

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