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unfair-sports · 4 years

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The OSG Fantasy Report Week 13

Thursday Slate

Here we go with what is always one of the most exciting slates of the year. Most fans are off of work, and some will have time to plug in some lineups. Some versus friends, family, and versus the masses. On a 3-game slate, you have to try to make some lineups a little different to avoid the chalk, and get ahead of the field. However, do not ignore the best plays. Sometimes, you just play the best plays. On short slates, raw points matter. You are not going to love your lineup from top to bottom and will be forced to roster players that on a full Sunday slate would not even be in your player pool. If they hit, you may have a new favorite NFL player. (I’m now the biggest Derrick Henry and Calvin Ridley fan in America!). Regardless, the Week 13 Thursday OSG Report!!!!!!!!

Chicago Bears -4 @ Detroit Lions (39)

Buffalo Bills @ Dallas Cowboys -7 (45)

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (49)

Quarterback

Drew Brees- On paper this is an excellent matchup for Brees on the road in the dome in Atlanta. He’s an easy play because of the ability to stack with Michael Thomas, Jared Cook, or Alvin Kamara. They have one of the narrowest target trees in the NFL. The only issue here with Brees is price. He has by far the best matchup, the highest total vs a reeling defense who for two weeks showed signs of life. If Atlanta can keep the game somewhat close and force Brees to pass for 4 quarters vs allowing the Saints to kill the clock for the 4th quarter, then Brees can meet or beat value.

Mitch Trubisky – Purely a price play here if you have seen him play lately. He’s gets a friendly environment at the Lions dome, along with a soft matchup who handed Dwayne Haskins his first win. I’m willing to succeed that Mitch is a hair higher on the rankings than Haskins. He offers some rushing ability here and can make rostering some studs a little easier depending on lineup construction.

Matt Ryan- Vs this Saints defense, Ryan is a tough sell. Early season he was a lock for 300 yards and multi TDs every game. With his dome and weapons, it SHOULD still be there and it’s not. And with Julio Jones very questionable Wednesday evening, he’s a tougher sell depending on how many lineups you are building.

Josh Allen- At the time of writing this, Allen is my favorite QB. The thing here is I am considering NOT stacking him in the traditional sense. Allen to Brown etc. (we will get to that at WRs). The likes of Sam Darnold and Jeff Driskel have played very comfortable vs Dallas, and in the dome, could be easy fantasy points picking for Allen. The same knock on Dallas applies to Buffalo, no wins vs quality playoff bound opponents. So, I even think the 7-point line in Dallas is way too generous and could lead to Buffalo feeling a little disrespected and coming to play. Regardless, Allen provides a solid rushing floor and leads his team in rushing TDs on the season. An easy plug and play

Dak Prescott- As of now, Dak is my least favorite QB and draws the toughest matchups of any QBs on the Thursday slate. 10 of 11 of QBs facing Buffalo have finished 13th or worse in QB fantasy points each week. The running game here should be the target vs Buffalo.

Running Back

Tarik Cohen/David Montgomery- The Bears get the best matchup vs RBs this week and this is purely a play to be different. The masses loaded up on Montgomery vs Detroit a few weeks ago and it DID NOT WORK OUT! So, the common sense move would be to avoid him, but on a 3-game slate he has to be considered. I prefer Tarik Cohen due to his pass game involvement as of late. I do wish he secured a few more rushing attempts, but on a 3 game slate beggars cannot be choosy. He’s a sneaky stack mate with Trubisky depending on how many lineups you do get to.

Alvin Kamara/Latavius Murray- Pass catching backs vs Atlanta are a “thing” and in comes Kamara. The very definition of a pass catching back and can be stacked alongside Drew Brees for that reason. While the 20 touches are always there, it’s a mix of pass and run that gets him there. Last week, Murray somewhat started off the game in the backfield, and even punched in the beloved red zone TD. Vs Atlanta either back is in play. For his price, I would prefer Kamara to have access to the goal line and red zone carries. From the eyeball test, it seems that the Saints are managing his rushing load, which for his price has been making him an extremely tough sell. If you fade Kamara for these reasons, then Murray is the direct beneficiary of Kamara’s missed snaps.

Devin Singletary- He topped 100 yards last week, but no TDs. The positive regression should come soon. He’s in a great dome environment and has the speed and athleticism to take a screen pass from Allen the distance. Frank Gore is always scary due to his goal line work, but not enough to roster, though we can do stranger things on a short game slate. Gore and the likes of David Montgomery could easy go for minimum yards and a few goal line carries for 2 TDs.

Ezekiel Elliott- Once again, Zeek is one of my favorite RBs of the slate. While the “explosiveness” may not be like his rookie year, the work however is. He dominates his backfield touches and gets plays drawn up for him in the passing game. With so much pressure on Dallas, the head coach, and facing a very tough defense with a shutdown corner, the commonsense play is to “feed him on Thanksgiving” (clever right?) Regardless, we targeted Phillip Lindsay vs Buffalo because the Bills never put 7-8 in the box which allows them to clamp down on the passing game. So that means Zeek vs a weak front, with very little LB presence around the line against a defense allowing 4.62 yards per carry, sign me up Zeek!!

Devonta Freeman- Mentioned here because of the slate. He’s returning from injury and was the clear lead back for an Atlanta team that doesn’t like to use their lead backs in heavy loads. His pass game involvement was there, and Julio may miss. It’s the worst matchup on the slate for RBs but all must be considered.

Wide Receiver

Atlanta Falcons- With the Saints being so stout up front on the run, all production shifts to WRs against them. We need the news about Juilo, but on a short week in a lost season, why rush him back with a shoulder injury here? I could be wrong but I fully expect Jones to sit which leaves Russell Gage, and Calvin Ridley as their main WRs. I love them both here despite not loving the QB. Gage was heavily involved last week, and though in trash time Ridley once again hit value with a late TD. He is going to be one of my favorite WRs on the day. In 3 career games vs the Saints he has gone for 3/28/0, 8/93/1TD, and 7/146/3TDs a few weeks ago. We cannot expect 3 TDs, but with Hooper already out, and Julio very questionable without practicing all week, Ridley is a candidate to finish with the best WR box score Thursday. The Falcons/Saints will more than likely be where most if not all my WRs come from (A Rob, Beasley maybe) while attacking the rushing elsewhere outside of some Kamara stacks. So, pay attention to news regarding Jones despite being the latest game of the day.

Michael Thomas- Do we even have to tout Michael Thomas. He’s steady floor is running back-ish at his point. He’s gone over 100 yards in all but 4 games and scored in one of those games. He has absolutely dominated the Falcons during his career, and this once again sets up as a can’t miss. The smaller your field or number of opponents, makes it very hard not to roster Thomas here paired with one of the most accurate passers in league history.

Allen Robinson and company- The Bears are always a tough sell, but we saw last week as well as several times during the season that when Tribusky shows any amount of competence, Allen Robinson has very good fantasy and real-life games. They face the woeful Lions defense who is a mecca for shootouts, and just laid 6/86/0TDs vs them on November. Taylor Gabriel is out with another concussion which places Anthony Miller in line for extra targets coming off of 9 and 11 target games the last two weeks, as well as bottom priced Javon Wims. Again, it’s the Bears, so you have to only really like 1 guy and hope for the yards and the TD.

John Brown/Cole Beasley- Dallas plays a stingy zone defense which is designed to prevent the big plays which by design should suppress John Brown’s recent production and big play ability. Of course, on such a short slate, anybody is in play, but I may look to the slot receiver who had some choice words for the Dallas offense in Cole Beasley. It’s a great revenge spot on Thanksgiving for Beasley. Aside from revenge, it’s a great spot here. Dallas has yet to give up over 75 yards to a WR, and the slots have led in yards the last two games vs Dallas.

Amari Cooper/Michael Gallup- Assuming Cooper will see Tre’Davious White who hasn’t given up a TD since Week 14 of last season!!! Gallup on the other hand should see Levi Wallace who runs a 4.63 and has allowed catches on 69 percent of his targets for 495 yards, and 4 TDs.

Tight End

Dawson Knox- Purely a price, and matchup-based play in hopes of a TD here. They get the matchup on Sunday vs a stingy zone defense designed to suppress WR production. With Allen’s scrambling ability, and Dallas forcing production to screens and the middle of the field, I could see 3 catches, 34 yards, 1 TD. For his price, that is completely acceptable on a slate where any TE not named Jared Cook is highly questionable.

Chicago Bears- They are literally down their 3rd and 4th string TEs which means they really signed them as opposed to be on the roster as a 3rd or 4th. Avoid this situation at all costs.

Jared Cook- Easily the best TE of the day, but everybody will play him as well.Outside of Dawson Knox punt lineups, Cook will bless each lineup.He has the highest upside and comes in with 70 or more yards and or a TD in five straight games.He’s been on a tear lately and will be a targeted receiver from one of the leagues best with the highest game total.

Defense

Any defense on a short slate is in play, and you may love a lineup and be forced to have a defense vs an offensive player. For instance, I love Zeek, but also the ability of Buffalo to catch a INT or two vs Dallas or garner some sacks.

I do like the Bears vs the 3rd string QB in Detroit easily.

I do like the Saints vs the struggling Falcons.

The Bills more for their price fit, and you could punt with Atlanta in hopes of a semi repeat vs the Saints.

#fantasyfootball #fantasy #fantasy football #football #Fantasy #DFS #nfl #espnfantasy #dailyfantasysports #dailyfantasy #yahoofantasy #daily fantasy sports

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unfair-sports · 5 years

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The OSG Fantasy Report Week 8

Week 8 2019 OSG Report

Quarterback

The anchor of our lineups this week will be short and sweet. The proper stacking mate will be where the options seem to open up. This will lead to a very condense Week 8 player pool, especially starting up top.

Russell Wilson

Russ just hasn’t disappointed this season. Even when he has somewhat fell short of fantasy expectations, he will not crater your lineups. He’s thrown a TD pass in every single game and rushed for 3TDs. Depending on the scoring site, he’s the 1 or 2 scoring QB with Deshaun Watson. He gets a great road matchup vs Atlanta in a DOME. The matchup takes a dip with Matt Ryan officially ruled out to help keep the game somewhat competitive. If Seattle gets up, they do have a tendency to run run run, and could limit Wilson’s ceiling. The only argument to that, is that if they go up 2-3 scores, then maybe Russ has 2-3 scores. At his price, we do need a 250 yard, multi TD performance to pay off in tournaments. The Falcons have not produced a sack in a month (literally), and Wilson will have all day to decide to pass or run in this one.

Deshaun Watson

Also, in a DOME, but at home, Watson also gets a very favorable matchup vs Oakland whom we just saw get torn to pieces by Aaron Rodgers in Lambeau. Now, Watson falls into the same spot. He has multi pass and run TD equity vs a weak pass rush. If the offensive line can continue to keep Watson clean, he is in for a huge day vs Oakland with multiple weapons at his disposal.

Matthew Stafford

Though he was not in my original game plan and write-up last week, I fell onto Stafford late Saturday going into Sunday. He was home, and in a DOME vs a defense who is finally beginning to show some cracks in Minnesota. His big day with my Stafford-Jones stacks led to a very great Sunday could repeat itself this week. Though you cannot predict 4 TDs especially to the same receiver, he gets a great matchup vs a very weak Giants secondary. Again, in a DOME with two receivers who draw excellent matchups, look for Stafford to once again fire multiple TDs.

Ryan Tannehill

He made the list of my cheap off the wall QBs this week. It is purely matchup-based playing against one of the WORST secondaries in the league. Coming off a 300-yard performance, his first since September 2016 (we can maybe blame Miami), he faces a defense who has given up top 15 fantasy performances 4 straight games, including top five results to Daniel Jones, Jared Goff, and Teddy Bridgewater. Good QBs, but no pro bowlers by any means. And Tannehill fits that bill. He’s at home, he’s favored with game with a 45.5 total in good passing weather (not a dome). The more lineups you make, he is worth a shot.

Notable mentions:

Jared Goff

Daniel Jones vs Lions in a DOME (We saw Kirk Cousins exchange deep balls vs Stafford last week)

Drew Brees at a depressed price coming off an injury now that he has been ruled in. It’s a run first offense with a sore thumb going into a bye week. I’m not expecting 35 plus attempts here unless the game suddenly turns into an unexpected high scoring affair. The Cardinals are slowing down their pace which is helping Murray’s efficiency.

Matt Schaub. He is cheap, in a DOME vs a beatable secondary. He’s not an inexperienced rookie who will be a deer in headlights. Like Bridgewater, he gets a week to prepare as a veteran, he has multiple weapons at his disposal, and is worth some consideration. He’s also at home in a DOME.

Running Back

There are plenty of questions at running back. The big question is whether to play or fade the top two priced backs in Christian McCaffrey vs 49ers defense, and Saquan Barkley and his ankle that almost became an issue last Sunday. If you still hold Wayne Gallman in season longs, continue to stash him until the ankle is 100 percent.

Chris Carson

For years, we have had plenty of success attacking Atlanta with RBs. Their defense this year is attackable everywhere but go back to the starting well here. If they are up big with their 7-point road favorite status, it is definitely Chris Carson time. Ignore the last box score, as Baltimore is quietly improving their run defense and will come out of their bye week even better in my opinion. Carson in a “disappointing fantasy week” still had 24 touches off 21 carries and 3 receptions. That’s 4 straight 20 touch weeks and has at least 15 rushes every week this season. He is playable in stacks with Russell Wilson and with your Lockett or Metcalf stacks, and maybe even the Seattle defense if you like the onslaught of Matt Schaub.

Leonard Fournette

Uncle Lenny returns for another prime matchup. The positive TD regression for Fournette has to happen. He has 5 straight weeks of at least 20 touches, and last week 30 for the second time this season, yet only has 1 rushing TD. At his depressed price because of that, this will be one of the last chances to buy low before the huge TD game comes. This could be that week (IE Sony Michel’s 3 TDs vs Jets last week)

Ty Johnson (Detroit Lions)

With Kerryon Johnson off to the IR, in comes Ty Johnson. Are we scared that the Lions go back to RB by committee? Absolutely. But Detroit drafted Johnson for this. He immediately got 10 carries mid game and was 4/4 on targets for 28 yards. He’s just too cheap in just too good of a matchup vs the Giants to ignore and is an extreme salary saver when some of better QB options are high priced and comes with high priced WRs.

Carlos Hyde

Here is the worst recommendation I have……BUT, he’s a home favorite playing behind the leagues most explosive QB The Texans will move the ball downfield fairly easily and could see a handful of red zone and inside the 5 touches vs this weak Oakland front. He’s similar price to Edmonds, and keeps losing my Hyde vs Edmonds, Murray, and Ty Johnson mental debates (I have them leading up to lock on Sunday) due to potential volume alone. It’s easy to love Houston’s passing game so much that we ignore the chances of Hopkins or Stills being tackled at the 2, and the Watson or Hyde punch in to follow.

Injuries to monitor:

David Johnson and Alvin Kamara

Just like I did last week, I’m tempted to play Chase Edmonds regardless of Johnson’s status. Even in a split backfield, Edmonds has earned the snaps. They have shared the field on plays before, and in my opinion remains an elite play, even more so if you believe Johnson is out or limited again.

I would suspect that with an ankle or knee, and an upcoming bye, the Saints will go light on Kamara. Similar to Edmonds, even if Kamara is in, I believe Latavius Murray is in play. He ran 27 times and caught 5 balls from former Vikings teammate Bridgewater vs a Bears defense who is weakening, but his much better than Arizona’s. We saw how Kamara and Mark Ingram could produce fantasy numbers together in this run first offense. I could see Murray getting more work than Kamara if he’s in. It’s not ideal as Kamara simply being ruled out, but there is still time for news.

Decisions to make

What to do with C-Mac? We saw in two tough matchups vs Tampa that he can be stopped. I suspect that this 49er defense is better than Tampa Bay’s. It’s hard to ignore the 25-plus touch upside, but we have covered 2-3 RBs who could see 25 plus touches in better matchups as oppose to McCaffrey being a road dog with an inexperience QB being thrown to the wolves.

How healthy is Barkley’s ankle? If you believe he is anywhere near full health, he’s a lock and load vs this Lions defense who was just gashed by Dalvin Cook. He’s an excellent “bring it back” candidate in Stafford to Golladay or Jones stacks, the same way I stacked Cook with Stafford and Jones last week.

Honorable Mention

It would not be a report without my season long RB Todd Gurley. Yes, he’s slowing down, yes he’s used a lot less than in the past. However, he’s still the Rams top RB, and is seeing pass game work. He gets a super plus matchup vs The Bengals. He’s a double digit “home” favorite (in London) and can be paired with the Rams defense.

Wide Receiver

DK Metcalf

I could easily place Tyler Lockett right here as he draws a great 1 on 1 matchup. Anybody vs Atlanta gets a great matchup. Lockett runs his routes in the slot where the Falcons have given up 458 yards and 6 TDs with a 76 percent completion rate. I just like the big play long ball, and potential red zone targets for Metcalf. He has a big size advantage vs his opposing CB. Metcalf leads his team in air yards. He had a season high 9 targets vs Baltimore, and I want to be on board, and not a week late, when the explosion game comes.

Deandre Hopkins and Kenny Stills

They will be the featured targets vs a very bad Oakland secondary whom just traded away their first-round pick Cornerback. Watson and Hopkins stacks are a must have in tournaments, and Stills is a must play WR2 with Fuller ruled out. KeKe Coutee could vulture a TD, but I’m banking on the safety of Stills who ran 40 routes and 94 percent of the team’s snaps. In short, they’re all in play, but my favorite is Hopkins and Stills.

Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones

Did we watch Matt Stafford last week? Back in a DOME, when weather around the country slowly begins to turn, Stafford and pass catchers are easy plug and plays. Play Jones based on the matchup and being cheaper than Golladay, not chasing the TD performance of last week. Golladay has a much better matchup, but vs the Giants, you can go either way. I’ll have lineups of both paired individually with Stafford and coming back with Evan Engram and or Saquan Barkley, or Golden Tate for game stacks in this dome shootout.

John Brown

He’s Josh Allen’s number 1 downfield receiver playing the Eagles secondary. That is about the only research needed to lock in on Brown. I’m not high on the Allen stack, because we just have yet to see a ceiling game from Josh Allen this season. I prefer Brown on his own in other stacked lineups this week vs Philly. You can pivot to Cole Beasley as he is clearly the #2 option, but Brown is clearly the #1, with speed and downfield ability.

Michael Thomas

In mid write up, the Saints announced Drew Brees as the starting quarterback going into the bye week at home vs Arizona. I had plenty of interest here for Thomas vs Arizona. It does not seem to matter who is passing to Thomas. His high floor has remained and if we rolled out Darius Slayton or Golden Tate (whom was serviceable) vs Arizona, then Thomas is an easy plug and play. Not stack needed in this home DOME game.

Chris Godwin

The production keeps coming for Godwin who is averaging more fantasy points a game vs any other WR this year. We could easily place Mike Evans here, as Winston latches on to Evans some games and just peppers him with target after target. I’m not high on Winston this week, but if he can produce a 100-yard 1-2 TD WR, they are a must have this week. The Titans have yet to allow more than 20 points in a game. Godwin and Evans will probably only make game stacks of Tannehill and co as “bring it back” guys, but worth mentioning.

New England Patriots WR Core

We have 4 playable WRs which makes them scary plays in DFS. We will start with Julian Edelman who gets one of the best 1 on 1 matchups and will face no resistance vs this Browns defense. Cleveland as a whole will be outmatched, and the blowout could be on. We have seen Tom Brady heavily target new targets in the pass game. Mohammed Sanu is almost built like a TE and we know that Brady loves the inside of the field and having big solid red zone targets. They did not give up so much in the trade, just to have Sanu block, and if we think he’s acclimated in anyway to the New England play book, he’s an easy plug and play as well at his cheap price. We can also rotate Phillip Dorsett and Jacoby Meyers in the rotation depending on how many lineups you make.

Golden Tate

Tate played several seasons in Detroit and gets a revenge matchup vs a banged up and weak Detroit secondary. Daniel Jones has show plenty of chemistry with Tate and gets a DOME matchup and potential shootout. Sterling Shepard has once again been ruled out and is firmly in play this week. He’s seen 6, 9, and 11 targets (increasing each week) since his return from suspension and is emerging as Jones #1 WR.

AJ Brown and Corey Davis

Both wideouts were heavily targeted last week in Tannehill’s Titans debut. I’m never high on the Tennessee passing game, but with Mariota at the helm it was just that easy to fade each week. Derrick Henry should struggle Sunday, and ALL production must come thru Brown and Davis vs one of the leagues worst secondaries. Period.

Honorable Mentions

Mike Williams if Keenan Allen is ruled out. He is once again #1 on the air yards buy low model, and his TD should be coming. WRs have been producing very usable lines vs Chicago.

Allen Robinson like Michael Thomas seems to keep producing no matter who his QB is. The Chicago passing game never sounds like a fun roster. Just follow the heavy targets and volume in DFS and you’ll find success.

Tight End

Austin Hooper

As soon as Schaub came in, he marched right down field, targeting Hooper, capping off the drive with a red zone TD to Hooper. Tight ends are always a safety blanket for uncomfortable QBs and could come in as Schaub’s #1 WR.

Evan Engram

He busted big time last week, as the flow chart still worked with a TD going to “the other TE” in Rhett Ellison. We are going right back to the well. In fantasy you have to have a short memory, and fire a player back up when in a good matchup. The Lions allowed the ghost of Kyle Rudolph to catch a TD pass last week. Engram and Tate should be in with a heavy dose of targets in this potential dome shootout.

Gerald Everette

No Rams WRs made the list this week as their target share as gone down, and the Bengals have somehow limited big games vs opposing WRs. It could be because of the volume they give up to the run game. Either way, the WR core in LA has declined because of the increasing targets of Everette. He gets a great matchup in this London showdown, and should go overlooked vs the big name TEs.

Darren Waller

The Texans have held most of their opposing TEs in check. In comes Waller who is more of a WR for Carr but operating in Carr’s “zone” and his short average distance of targets (ADOT). He is a good “run it back” candidate for the Texans stack in this potential DOME shootout.

Darren Fells

This pick may make you a little funny feeling as it has me there as well. I just saw Jimmy Graham produce a usable fantasy performance vs Oakland. Any red zone target vs Oakland is in play as we have seen him targeted by Watson in the end zone. He’s not a lineup starter by any means. If you love your whole roster and Fells is the only TE that fits, he does fit the bill of a good matchup and TD potential Sunday.

Defense

This week we are looking at defenses first based on the biggest DL vs OL mismatches. Then the suffocating defenses who just do not allow points.

LA Rams

They came in last week with a big mismatch vs Atlanta, and once again lands on the list facing one of the worst offensive lines in Cincy. Aaron Donald and co should absolutely feast here for sacks, forced fumbles and potential INTs or a pick 6. We saw the Jags produce a very usable fantasy performance in Cincinnati last Sunday.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Also, on the list last week, they did not disappoint. If Sam Darnold continues to see ghosts……then we should see the Jags Defense fantasy numbers rise as well in this mismatch DL vs OL scenario.

New England Patriots

Of course, they have an advantage in the trenches as they will have mismatches across the board including the secondary. Baker has not looked comfortable behind his shaky offensive line. A potential repeat of the Monday night Mayhem vs the 49ers could be incoming Sunday.

New Orleans Saints

The DL continues to excel in the run game and continues to put pressure on QBs. While I have interest in Edmonds, it’s the DL vs OL matchup as oppose to David Johnson’s availability that has me approaching with caution. Any time you take a skilled and overmatched DL vs OL and a rookie QB, turnovers and sacks are not far behind.

Chicago Bears

Despite their recent struggles, the Bears DL still grades out as a positive matchup vs the self-imploding Chargers. If they continue to run out the inefficient Melvin Gordon, keep playing defenses vs them.

Other defenses

Tennessee Titans

Have not allowed more than 20 points this season. Gets the turnover prone Jameis Winston at home.

SF 49ers

They face a young QB at home on cross country travel. If they can contain McCaffrey somewhat, it will be a long day for the Panthers offense.

Buffalo Bills

They face the reeling Eagles in Buffalo. “The Ralph” is never an easy place to throw (hence my lack of interest in Josh Allen despite the matchup). It was scary watching Fitzpatrick effectively move the ball at Buffalo last week, but I think Philly is falling apart week by week. With no Desean Jackson, they have NO speed at WR, no running game to lean on. Disaster incoming.

Carolina Panthers

As intimidating as their defense is, I’m not sold on the passing game of SF. The Panthers may keep this game close and low scoring forcing Jimmy G to pass more than he has this season. Yes, the acquisition of Manny Sanders makes the 49ers passing more effective, but this is not the spot.

#fantasy #football #fantasyfootball #DFS #nfl #espnfantasy #yahoofantasy

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