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#its very interesting as a canadian who has added like .. 95% of my family and relatives
cwilbah · 1 month
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fascinated by american genealogy
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bmichael · 6 years
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Tanis vs The Southern Reach
In order to talk about the Southern Reach (TSR) trilogy, you have to talk about Tanis. There are a few reasons, both personal and intrinsic to the work. The most basic is that I’d have never heard of TSR without being a part of the online Tanis community. They would come up whenever anyone asked about works similar to Tanis, but they were generally recommended wanly, with the ending being a particular weakness. (This is absurd, because --) This was enough recommendation to get me to buy the book, but it took the first book from the trilogy, Annihilation, being both film-adapted and involved with my day job, to give the final push for me reading the books. 
The second main reason the two go hand in hand is that, without exaggeration, the Tanis podcast has tried, mostly unsuccessfully, to adapt or steal every good idea found in Jeff VanderMeer’s TSR books. Looking into Tanis provides an accurate map of the books’ general brilliance in the manner of a photo negative. An abominable necromantic double.
Fairly everything TSR covers -- psychological sessions and hypnosis; mysterious sylvan phenomenon; shadowy, quasi-NGOs running roughshod; oh yeah, and necromantic doubling -- Tanis has taken and used to worse effect. Everything. Instead of being set in a vaguely southeastern forest region of the country, Tanis sets its drama in the northwest. Again, another mirror-image type play, and not enough to give any sort of plausible deniability of blatant rip-off. But that Paramount money probably smoothes over any professional displeasure VanderMeer holds for Terry Miles’ podcast series.
Tanis is easy to explain and difficult to describe. It’s a serial fiction podcast centering on the investigative radio journalism of Nick SIlver, for a fictional northwestern radio station (now) called the Public Radio Alliance. He investigates a phenomenon called Tanis, which is found in the woods of the Pacific Northwest. Its fourth season recently began. (Good timing?)
Going more into it, the story of Tanis unfolds glacially. The first season forms a relatively clean arc that doubles back upon itself using a neat trick of storytelling. From there, the Tanis podcast tells an essentially ten-page story over the course of tens of hours of audio drama (insert scare quotes) by 1- having characters speak slowly and repetitiously, using dialogue that moves in fits and few starts; 2- picking up various narrative strands like the suicides of Kurt Cobain and Elliot Smith; shod feet washing up on shore; necromantic doubles; Nikola Tesla; Baba Yaga; Manson Family-style cults; time dilation; exotic locales around the world that aren’t in the Pacific Northwest; etc. etc. etc. and never resolving or developing them past basically stating them as premises; 3- finally, falling somewhat under the first rubric but deserving special attention, the dramatically stunted narration/actions of Nick Silver, the protagonist. I can’t recall there being a more unlikeable yet vanilla character in any sort of fiction or literature I’ve experienced. The voice actor is obviously Canadian, which somewhat contributes to the blandness of the character. Throughout the podcast, Silver is supposed to be a journalist or investigative reporter or something, but he displays virtually no curiosity or initiative. He’s happy to passively be told (or not told) things by interlocutors, asking no follow-up questions save for repeating whatever he’s told back to them with a slight upturn of voice. It’s maddening and deadening and a perfect symbol for the total plot stasis and lack of narrative drive that surrounds Tanis like a noxious miasma.
So, while the second TSR book, Authority, is a little slow (by design), it’s nothing like the complete vaporlocked and broken narrative engine that is Tanis.  
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Now, I stopped listening to Tanis after season 3, and even going through that was a slog. The podcast has recently taken up season 4, but I already have the work of Morton Feldman and Max Richter to help put me to sleep. It’s not that the narrative moves at a glacial pace; an overarching narrative thrust can proceed exquisitely slow and glacial if that’s part of an intentional narrative strategy. Kinetic pace and frenetic plot can serve some types of stories, but would be totally out of place for a piece that’s more about exploring space like, say, L'Avventura. The Southern Reach and Tanis are on the more meditative side of the dial, but I believe Tanis moves the way it does due to a lack of storytelling ability rather than design. Take a look at this piece of transcript from a season 2 episode. (The reader should note that things deteriorate rather steeply from season 2 to season 3, but I couldn’t find a transcript online for 3.)Two characters, Nic and Geoff (“Geoff”), are exploring part of an outdoor anomaly that is linked to, or possibly is, Tanis. They’re walking along a wall. After noticing a crow that he thinks is more than a crow (which he doesn’t elaborate on other than to say he doesn’t know why he feels this way), Nic says he sees something “interesting”. I understand that podcasting is an audio medium. For that reason, even more than for a written work, the narrative has to show and tell vividly. Tanis takes the opposite approach. Details are muted and obscure, the storytelling palette is limited to shades of gray. The bit-by-bit pieces of the story comprise a push-pull of exchanges like:— This is impossible.
— What? — This. — What is it? What? Here? — Yeah.
And you can read on above. It’s bad dialogue, sure. But also, given that it’s an audio medium, the eye can’t skim or travel quickly through soft focus detritus to get to the details of the bigger picture. There is no bigger picture, and all the details are like little croutons floating on top of a mushy, rotting word salad. Characters often can’t mutually decide, it seems, on what they’re seeing or thinking and exposition is stretched out to absurd lengths of what’s thises and who’s thats. This storytelling-by-stasis is my main complaint against Tanis, and 95% of the reason why I don’t listen to it anymore and would never recommend it to anyone. But it’s just the rotting frame that holds up an incredibly slender narrative idea, and I do think that’s by design. Very little happens in each episode. They’re edited such that several different storylines unfold in parallel, none of them very far, and they’re told so slowly and vaguely to mask how little happens. The first season had an arc with a beginning, middle, and end. If it had ended then, Tanis would have joined Limetown and Wolf 359 (which went on MUCH longer, though) as great narrative podcasts. But it’s continued drib drab storytelling over, now 4 seasons reminds me more of a modern “video game as service” than anything resembling a piece of fiction told by someone or someones in control of a story they’re telling. Every week you sorta log on to Tanis, see what minor things have happened, which for whatever reason takes 30 to 50 minutes, and you get to hear 4 or 5 ads as well. There doesn’t seem to be a larger point to anything, and that, I guess, is the point.
Most of the things that make Tanis a slog end up being positive features of TSR trilogy. The narrative metes out information in order to decontextualize and recontextualize different plot points and developments, sometimes in devastating fashion. Like most literary fiction TSR is about intergenerational family drama. The ways the past births already condemned presents and futures. When you’re finished reading it, you realize that the books told a relatively slight story powered about the mystery of Area X as it wove through a couple generations of the families who grew up in and around the environs of Area X. It’s not so different from various parts of Ulysses, where a minor event for one person is a major event in another’s life, which has a ripple effect for hundreds or thousands of other people in the environs of the plot. And when you experience the events through the different characters eyes, you experience a new meaning and significance.
I think, ultimately, I wanted to vent about Tanis and communicate that TSR is a significant improvement (or rather, that Tanis is a great degradation of it). Without spoiling (ugh) too much about TSR, it’s a propulsive story about ecological biomes and how change happens glacially and then all at once. This theme is somewhat reflected in the way the story is told, but it never drags and it generally always seems like the narrative energy is well-directed for the story it’s telling. Highly recommended. C+
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ecoamerica · 23 days
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Watch the American Climate Leadership Awards 2024 now: https://youtu.be/bWiW4Rp8vF0?feature=shared
The American Climate Leadership Awards 2024 broadcast recording is now available on ecoAmerica's YouTube channel for viewers to be inspired by active climate leaders. Watch to find out which finalist received the $50,000 grand prize! Hosted by Vanessa Hauc and featuring Bill McKibben and Katharine Hayhoe!
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Project Review:
Seraya Residences
Is it a good buy or bad buy?
Market View
The market of real estate in Singapore is huge. A lot of people prefer investing in properties in Singapore as they have good value and return of investment.
In spite of some measure from the government to cool down the market, it has been pretty positive when it comes to the primary home investment. The official data also shows that private home rates have rose to 9.1 per cent from the last year. Yet, people are still preferring to invest in a residential house.
Seraya Residence is a complete luxury valour which is developed by TEE Land developers. The launch date is mostly estimated to be in the year of 2020 in the third quarter.
Details about the development
Seraya Residences is a 99 year lease hold project which is located in the Seraya Crescent Enclave. They are known to be one of the finest condominiums of Singapore.
The location of the project is such that it is surrounded by the most beautiful Lower Pierce Reservoir Park. This makes the whole place filled with nature and serenity which makes it an ideal residential place.
Tenure
99-Year
District
15
TOP
April 2022
Site Area
2,236 sqm
No. of Units
50
Developer
TEE Land
TEE Land developers are known for making one of the best residential projects. They minutely focus on the details and create houses keeping in mind the residents’ demands.
While the registry is concerned, buyer just need to get their QR code scanned. The developers want to give them a convenient and eco-friendly option.
They also utilise the maximum space of the particular plot and use smart technologies and posh furniture in their houses.
Mix of 50 units are to be constructed in the Seraya Residences. Not all the units are same as each unit has an option of 1-4 bedrooms.
The shelters are developed keeping in mind a single professional, couple and a small family. They are low rise residential condominium which have a lot of communal facilities.
The total land area of the Seraya Residences is said to be spread across 2,236 square meter which is bought by the TEE Land developers in S$25.74 million in total.
The whole land was divided in to 6 plots overall. The developers have planned to build only Seraya Residences units on the plot. The developers have not yet specified anything about the temporary permit of residence.
Where is the development located?
Seraya Residence is located at the 12 Seraya Lane, in District 15. The location is such that it is easily accessible through public transports and road networks.
A couple of MRT stations like Mayflower MRT, Bright Hill MRT, and Lentor MRT are very nearby. A lot of bus feeder services are available near the Seraya lane.
The best part is that the Thomas East Coat line is planned to be completed by the year of 2020. East Coast Parkway and Pan Island Expressway are very nearby to Seraya Residence.
Apart from that Shenton Way and Marina Bay Sands are also very nearby from the residence. People who drive will not face a problem at all because business hub and orchard road is just 10 minutes far, if driving from Seraya lane B.
Stirling Residences
Seraya Residences location map
According to the Google Maps it might take just 12 minutes to drive from Seraya Residences to Pan Island Expressway. Apart from that Seletar Expressway and Central Expressway are also very nearby.
Seraya Residences driving distance to CTE
The selling points about development
The first and foremost point is that it is nearby to a lot of different MRT stations which will make it easier for the residents to use public transport. Apart from that all the main roads of the city are very nearby, if you are driving.
Seraya Residences bus going to Mayflower MRT Station
  The next best thing about this property is that it is located in an area from which malls like Poiz Residencies, Kovan Heartland and Bishan junction 8 are very nearby.
Even Dunman centre is located at a walking distance which is filled with different restaurants to eat. The location will also provide its residents access to the natural trail of the East Coast Park.
Seraya Residences near Bishan junction 8
  The other selling point of this property according to me is the availability of a lot of schools in the locality. People who have a family will want to have this advantage. Schools like Peirce Secondary school, Chij St. Nicholas Girls School, Mayflower secondary school and Canadian International are just a few names in the vicinity.
Seraya Residences near Ai tong school
  The aesthetics of Seraya Residences will also be a major reason for its selling. The units of the residence are filled with luxury. They almost give a feeling of resort to the owners.
The units are also very sophisticated and chic in their look. Also, the condos are in option of one room as well. This will prove to be a great selling point for single professional who want to live in style. The same thing will go for couples as well.
Seraya Residences location
  Thus, the option of 3-4 rooms not only blend with the lifestyle of the owner but also their personality. The units are completely furnished and have smart technologies of the best quality.
The other thing that I feel will resonate with the buyers is the location. In spite of being in the buzz of an urban city, Seraya Residences strives to give a peaceful and tranquil environment to its owners.
The residence also includes facilities like individual car parking, swimming pool and 24 hours security. Children’s playground, sun deck, reading alcove and BBQ terrace are added attractions in each unit.
My thoughts about the development
I find the location to be very prime and Seraya Residence will be in direct competition with Lattice One which is also located in Seraya Crescent Enclave and is developed by TEE Land only.
Apart from that there are other residencies like Parc Botannia which is transacted to a price of about S$12xx psf. There is also the Brook I and II which is said to be on a price of S$11xx psf. Belgravia villas and Kandis residence are also in the neighbourhood which are said to have transacted at a price of S$8xx psf and S$13xx psf respectively.
Seraya Residences near serangoon NEX shopping mall
  Thus, I feel the rates of Seraya Residence will also be around the same range only. The exact price per unit is still not clear from the developer but it should be out soon. I think the price is not at all overrated for the amount of quality and space that they provide with all the luxury ameneties.
There is a likely chance of this property being rented as well. Because of its wonderful residential location, a lot of people will prefer to stay in the Seraya Residence. Its proximity to the MRT station will also prove beneficial. People who do own a car will also be interest to stay in this property.
Seraya Residences near mayflower MRT Station
  The location offers a lot of shopping centres and supermarkets too. Since, it has a complete package to offer to its residents, I feel Seraya Residence will be sold out within no time.
project ratings
Pricing – 95%
The estimated price is said to be somewhere between S$9xx psf to S$15xx psf which is not at all bad for a prime location. The facilities and ameneties that the residence provides to its owner is simply amazing. Also, the space of the house with the immense facilities are worthy of the price.
Location – 98%
I really think that the location of the property is just appropriate for a residential project. The developers have actually thought about all the different kinds of residents and selected the site.
Commuting is super easy for people with a car and also for people who prefer the public transport. The proximity of the MRT stations and expressway just makes everything very easy.
Also, the location has ample of malls, shopping centres, supermarkets and restaurants for entertainment purpose. This will be an advantageous point for all the people who have extremely busy life schedules and do not want to spend the weekend travelling.
  Apart from that, the availability of schools makes it a favourable location again for families.
The location is also nestled in greenery and the proximity of the park will make the fitness enthusiasts opt for Seraya Residence.
Quality – 90%
The developer is known to be very experienced. They are known to be making good quality developments and their sole objective is “Design for Living”.
They take a lot of pain in understanding the requirements of their clients. They are also known for following the latest house trends and use the best smart technologies so that they could attract the young buyers as well. Their portfolio includes ample of sites. Few of them are Lattice One and 35 Gill stead.
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The post Seraya Residences Review appeared first on Number One Property.
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rebeccahpedersen · 6 years
Text
Turn Back The Clock: Garth Turner In 2006
TorontoRealtyBlog
A reader sent me this article last week, and I found it quite interesting.
I’m not here today, with the benefit of hindsight, to provide any sort of “I told you so,” but rather to look at why real estate bears like Garth Turner, or Hilliard Macbeth, thought that the Canadian real estate market was set to crash – before it more than doubled in many places.
Cynics will point to the profits these bears have made from directing followers and listeners away from real estate, but there simply must be reasons for their predictions, right?
In this article, Mr. Turner provided several…
(This is a transcript of the March 24th, 2006 article in its entirety)
The real estate boom is over. You may or may not like that news,but it is now official.  I am calling the eight-year-long housing lovefest, finito.
Done like dinner.  Does that mean housing prices are going to start spiralling lower, with a rerun of the equity-busting days of the early 1990s? Should families who have concentrated most of their wealth in their homes be panicking?
Hardly.  I see no storm clouds on the horizon.  But neither do I see the weather conditions that would allow prices to keep on rising.  And there is one overwhelming piece of news that,more than anything else, should tell everyone that real estate is an overvalued commodity ripe for correction.
This past week my friend Peter Vukanovich,who came to visit me a few days ago in my MP’s riding office, pulled the trigger.  His company, Genworth Financial, has now become the first mortgage insurer to cover 35-year home loans.  That goes one better than CHMC, which three weeks ago said it would insure 30- year-long mortgages.  And the country’s best-known mortgage guru, whom I spent time with as well last week in the boardroom of a Toronto law firm, told me in hushed tones he is preparing for the advent of the 50-year mortgage.
What does this mean? And what’s the big difference from today’s normal 25-year mortgage amortization?
Simply, it is this: Mortgages have always been very large debts for people to pay,and in order to make them more affordable, the payments have been spread over a long period of time – usually 25 years. The effect of this is that monthly payments are brought down,but the amount you end up paying back rises.  At today’s interest rates, with a 25-year am, you actually pay the lender about twice what you borrowed – almost $580,000 in payments on a $300,000 mortgage.
So, when the payment period (that’s the amortization part – based on the French verb ‘to kill’) is extended, then the same formula kicks in, namely, lower monthly payments and a greater amount actually repaid.  In the case of that $300,000 mortgage and a 35-year amortization,monthly payments fall from $2,000 a month to about $1,700, but the amount you dish over rises by $135,000, to a substantial $712,000.
So, why does this show the real estate market has peaked and is about to hit the down escalator?  Simply because this is the third major indicator that housing prices have passed the ability of the average family to afford them.  And anytime that transpires,the writing is on the garage wall.
First we have had the unprecedented use of the 5 per cent down payment program.  Genworth’s Vukanovich told me in our meeting about the tens of billions in mortgages his company has just insured for buyers in that program – in fact, this is where almost all of the mortgage growth is.  Not good.  Buyers putting up 5 per cent of the price of a home and mortgaging 95% are doing the same things as stock market junkies snapping up securities on margin.  The only way they make money is if the asset rises in value,and quickly.  So far the 5 per cent down crowd have done very well, since their extreme leveraging has paid off in a rising market.  But if housing prices move in the opposite direction, their tiny little bit of equity can evaporate in a week or two, leaving them with nothing but a sea of debt. Oh yeah, and a home they “own.”
The second indication this is a market living on somebody else’s oxygen was the announcement some months ago that several of the banks would lend money to people who don’t have any — hence, the zero-down mortgage.  Borrowers with good strong employment earnings, but no savings, suddenly qualified to buy houses they could not afford.  Need I say more?  But, actually,there is more – because boutique lenders will now give you enough money for 100 per cent of the purchase prices, plus more cash for the closing costs and a new plasma TV.
So, here we have the third indicator – amortizations which have gone from 25 years to 30, then to 35 years and quite possibly now to fifty.  This is irrefutable proof that houses at these levels are unaffordable if you play by the rules that have influenced real estate supply and demand for the last three generations.  And layer on top of that the effect of five recent mortgage rate increases, with the prospect of a couple more to come, and you can see what’s going down.
Over the last year, Vancouver house prices rose 26 per cent.  In Calgary, 24 per cent.  In Toronto, just 6 per cent.  I would argue that the inevitable correction in real estate prices has already started in the GTA and will soon be spreading west. In mid-town Toronto right now, you have to spend $1.3 million to buy an 80-year-old brick house on a street full of the same houses, on a 30-foot-wide lot with no garage.  And this is not an area of wealthy millionaire families, but rather working couples with public school-age kids. They may live in million-dollar homes, but they quite often also have million-dollar mortgages.
The only way they’ll make money on those houses is if they find somebody to pay even more.  And behind that indebted buyer will be a generous lender. And behind that lender, a creative insurer. And you don’t want to know what’s behind him.
More on this, soon.
Again, thanks to a reader for finding this 12-year-old article and sending it my way.
I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention what you all already know…
The average Toronto home price in March of 2006 when this article was published was $353,134.  This past May of 2018, the average was $805,320.  That’s an increase of 128%.
The Canada-wide HPI Benchmark Index sat at $307,700 in March of 2006, and has risen some 108% to $637,500 this past month.
But let’s get that out of the way.  I’m pretty sure Mr. Turner doesn’t care anyways.
I’m more interested in his reasons for the impending “end” to the real estate boom, and how looking back, they were so right – even though they were completely wrong.
What I mean is, he identified issues in the market that, he thought, would be troublesome.
And looking back, many of these issues were noted and acted upon by the Finance Minister and/or CMHC (making Mr. Turner right), and yet the market still continued to climb (Making Mr. Turner wrong).
Mr. Turner first noted that buying with a 5% down payment was a problem, as it would leave buyers “owning” their homes with a 95% debt-load.  Perhaps he wasn’t wrong in identifying this was an issue, considering the changes that have been implemented by the CMHC since then:
1) Minimum 20% down payment over $1,000,000. 2) Minimum 20% down payment on investment and/or second properties. 3) Increased down payment requirement on mortgage amount from $500,000 – $999,999 from 5% to 10%.
The second point that Mr. Turner made was about 0% down mortgages, and even cash-back mortgages.  In 2007, I had a client buy with the 107% financing plan, whereby he purchased for $1,000,000 and provided a $50,000 deposit cheque, and upon closing, was given the $50,000 back by the lender, plus another $20,000.
But these programs were long done away with, as the minimum down payment requirements above explain.
The third point that Mr. Turner made was actually two points – first about the increase in amortization periods, the second about the five consecutive hikes in mortgage rates.
Amortizations did reach 40 years, but then came back down to 25 and 30.  Most buyers out there right now look for, or can only qualify for, a 25-year amortization.  The 30-year product still exists, but isn’t nearly as prevalent.  As for the potential “50-year amortization,” I had honestly never heard of this as a possibility until I read this 2006 article.  I don’t know how close this was to ever becoming a reality.
As for the increase in mortgage rates, and prediction of subsequent rates, Mr. Turner was hypothesizing here.  Or if you want to try to get into his head, based on his feelings on the market, he might have been catastrophizing.  Adding potential increased rates to his other qualms would only make the fire burn brighter!
Looking back on this article twelve years later, and knowing Garth Turner’s track record, and history of disastrously-incorrect predictions about the real estate market, I’m actually going to come away giving him more credit than I previously did.
His predictions, at least, were based on ‘problems’ in both the real estate and mortgage markets, several of which were rectified.
As I said, it’s ironic (or more disastrous for his predictions) that increasing down payment regulations and shrinking amortization periods didn’t make the market turn and run the other way.
But I have to give him credit for putting this into print – even before the housing crisis in the United States began two years later.
The post Turn Back The Clock: Garth Turner In 2006 appeared first on Toronto Real Estate Property Sales & Investments | Toronto Realty Blog by David Fleming.
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rebeccahpedersen · 6 years
Text
Turn Back The Clock: Garth Turner In 2006
TorontoRealtyBlog
A reader sent me this article last week, and I found it quite interesting.
I’m not here today, with the benefit of hindsight, to provide any sort of “I told you so,” but rather to look at why real estate bears like Garth Turner, or Hilliard Macbeth, thought that the Canadian real estate market was set to crash – before it more than doubled in many places.
Cynics will point to the profits these bears have made from directing followers and listeners away from real estate, but there simply must be reasons for their predictions, right?
In this article, Mr. Turner provided several…
(This is a transcript of the March 24th, 2006 article in its entirety)
The real estate boom is over. You may or may not like that news,but it is now official.  I am calling the eight-year-long housing lovefest, finito.
Done like dinner.  Does that mean housing prices are going to start spiralling lower, with a rerun of the equity-busting days of the early 1990s? Should families who have concentrated most of their wealth in their homes be panicking?
Hardly.  I see no storm clouds on the horizon.  But neither do I see the weather conditions that would allow prices to keep on rising.  And there is one overwhelming piece of news that,more than anything else, should tell everyone that real estate is an overvalued commodity ripe for correction.
This past week my friend Peter Vukanovich,who came to visit me a few days ago in my MP’s riding office, pulled the trigger.  His company, Genworth Financial, has now become the first mortgage insurer to cover 35-year home loans.  That goes one better than CHMC, which three weeks ago said it would insure 30- year-long mortgages.  And the country’s best-known mortgage guru, whom I spent time with as well last week in the boardroom of a Toronto law firm, told me in hushed tones he is preparing for the advent of the 50-year mortgage.
What does this mean? And what’s the big difference from today’s normal 25-year mortgage amortization?
Simply, it is this: Mortgages have always been very large debts for people to pay,and in order to make them more affordable, the payments have been spread over a long period of time – usually 25 years. The effect of this is that monthly payments are brought down,but the amount you end up paying back rises.  At today’s interest rates, with a 25-year am, you actually pay the lender about twice what you borrowed – almost $580,000 in payments on a $300,000 mortgage.
So, when the payment period (that’s the amortization part – based on the French verb ‘to kill’) is extended, then the same formula kicks in, namely, lower monthly payments and a greater amount actually repaid.  In the case of that $300,000 mortgage and a 35-year amortization,monthly payments fall from $2,000 a month to about $1,700, but the amount you dish over rises by $135,000, to a substantial $712,000.
So, why does this show the real estate market has peaked and is about to hit the down escalator?  Simply because this is the third major indicator that housing prices have passed the ability of the average family to afford them.  And anytime that transpires,the writing is on the garage wall.
First we have had the unprecedented use of the 5 per cent down payment program.  Genworth’s Vukanovich told me in our meeting about the tens of billions in mortgages his company has just insured for buyers in that program – in fact, this is where almost all of the mortgage growth is.  Not good.  Buyers putting up 5 per cent of the price of a home and mortgaging 95% are doing the same things as stock market junkies snapping up securities on margin.  The only way they make money is if the asset rises in value,and quickly.  So far the 5 per cent down crowd have done very well, since their extreme leveraging has paid off in a rising market.  But if housing prices move in the opposite direction, their tiny little bit of equity can evaporate in a week or two, leaving them with nothing but a sea of debt. Oh yeah, and a home they “own.”
The second indication this is a market living on somebody else’s oxygen was the announcement some months ago that several of the banks would lend money to people who don’t have any — hence, the zero-down mortgage.  Borrowers with good strong employment earnings, but no savings, suddenly qualified to buy houses they could not afford.  Need I say more?  But, actually,there is more – because boutique lenders will now give you enough money for 100 per cent of the purchase prices, plus more cash for the closing costs and a new plasma TV.
So, here we have the third indicator – amortizations which have gone from 25 years to 30, then to 35 years and quite possibly now to fifty.  This is irrefutable proof that houses at these levels are unaffordable if you play by the rules that have influenced real estate supply and demand for the last three generations.  And layer on top of that the effect of five recent mortgage rate increases, with the prospect of a couple more to come, and you can see what’s going down.
Over the last year, Vancouver house prices rose 26 per cent.  In Calgary, 24 per cent.  In Toronto, just 6 per cent.  I would argue that the inevitable correction in real estate prices has already started in the GTA and will soon be spreading west. In mid-town Toronto right now, you have to spend $1.3 million to buy an 80-year-old brick house on a street full of the same houses, on a 30-foot-wide lot with no garage.  And this is not an area of wealthy millionaire families, but rather working couples with public school-age kids. They may live in million-dollar homes, but they quite often also have million-dollar mortgages.
The only way they’ll make money on those houses is if they find somebody to pay even more.  And behind that indebted buyer will be a generous lender. And behind that lender, a creative insurer. And you don’t want to know what’s behind him.
More on this, soon.
Again, thanks to a reader for finding this 12-year-old article and sending it my way.
I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention what you all already know…
The average Toronto home price in March of 2006 when this article was published was $353,134.  This past May of 2018, the average was $805,320.  That’s an increase of 128%.
The Canada-wide HPI Benchmark Index sat at $307,700 in March of 2006, and has risen some 108% to $637,500 this past month.
But let’s get that out of the way.  I’m pretty sure Mr. Turner doesn’t care anyways.
I’m more interested in his reasons for the impending “end” to the real estate boom, and how looking back, they were so right – even though they were completely wrong.
What I mean is, he identified issues in the market that, he thought, would be troublesome.
And looking back, many of these issues were noted and acted upon by the Finance Minister and/or CMHC (making Mr. Turner right), and yet the market still continued to climb (Making Mr. Turner wrong).
Mr. Turner first noted that buying with a 5% down payment was a problem, as it would leave buyers “owning” their homes with a 95% debt-load.  Perhaps he wasn’t wrong in identifying this was an issue, considering the changes that have been implemented by the CMHC since then:
1) Minimum 20% down payment over $1,000,000. 2) Minimum 20% down payment on investment and/or second properties. 3) Increased down payment requirement on mortgage amount from $500,000 – $999,999 from 5% to 10%.
The second point that Mr. Turner made was about 0% down mortgages, and even cash-back mortgages.  In 2007, I had a client buy with the 107% financing plan, whereby he purchased for $1,000,000 and provided a $50,000 deposit cheque, and upon closing, was given the $50,000 back by the lender, plus another $20,000.
But these programs were long done away with, as the minimum down payment requirements above explain.
The third point that Mr. Turner made was actually two points – first about the increase in amortization periods, the second about the five consecutive hikes in mortgage rates.
Amortizations did reach 40 years, but then came back down to 25 and 30.  Most buyers out there right now look for, or can only qualify for, a 25-year amortization.  The 30-year product still exists, but isn’t nearly as prevalent.  As for the potential “50-year amortization,” I had honestly never heard of this as a possibility until I read this 2006 article.  I don’t know how close this was to ever becoming a reality.
As for the increase in mortgage rates, and prediction of subsequent rates, Mr. Turner was hypothesizing here.  Or if you want to try to get into his head, based on his feelings on the market, he might have been catastrophizing.  Adding potential increased rates to his other qualms would only make the fire burn brighter!
Looking back on this article twelve years later, and knowing Garth Turner’s track record, and history of disastrously-incorrect predictions about the real estate market, I’m actually going to come away giving him more credit than I previously did.
His predictions, at least, were based on ‘problems’ in both the real estate and mortgage markets, several of which were rectified.
As I said, it’s ironic (or more disastrous for his predictions) that increasing down payment regulations and shrinking amortization periods didn’t make the market turn and run the other way.
But I have to give him credit for putting this into print – even before the housing crisis in the United States began two years later.
The post Turn Back The Clock: Garth Turner In 2006 appeared first on Toronto Real Estate Property Sales & Investments | Toronto Realty Blog by David Fleming.
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