#how long have these shots been in my drafts holy moly | Explore Tumblr Posts and Blogs

that-banana-headed-bovine · 2 years

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GIVE ME YOUR HEADCANONS FOR YOUR FAVORITE BOY. BEST BOY. KARR!

holy crap. the universe does not want me to make this post I SWEAR.

I was having difficulties answering one of the segments of the format you were asking for, so I shelfed it for a bit to think on it. I never came to a conclusion HASODH-

I scrolled thru asks and saw this. Holy moly you have been waiting for so long, if you are still here I would just like to say that I am so sorry for that like. I really meant to get to this sooner--

Well, if the wait has been this long, I had better make my response worth it right. So I’d better get the text format.

wait where is it.

I scrolled through old posts and old asks for like 20 minutes to find the format.

I did not find the format

I typed up a long intro explaining this whole situation, and got started writing the ask

THE PAGE REFRESHED.

TUMBLR AUTOSAVED NONE OF IT.

I also thought I lost THIS draft for a second and nearly screamed. luckily I did not I was just on the wrong blog

this is try number. across all of the times I’ve touched it I don’t actually know. Time two today tho.

Anyway AHSOD I am so sorry for the long wait AND that I will not be using the original format because it has Disappeared. If I do eventually find it, I’ll probably revisit this with anything I missed, but for now I will just be doing my best with what I remember and adding some other nonsense Just Because. I hope this is good asdioh-

Headcanons about Canon and not AUs for once in my life

You know how in TDR, they have that really zoomed out shot at the end of the chase before Karr careens off a cliff where they do a bit of an Oopsie. That oopsie being “there is a very clear way out of this situation. that way is turning left instead of right.”

And you know how in KvK, Karr’s self preservation programming is basically thrown out the window? So that they could throw model cars at each other or sumn I’m not being sarcastic there’s actually a few split seconds where you can see them throwing model cars at each other it’s so freaking funny I highly recommend going back and looking for it if you didn’t see it, it’s like behind the explosion I think, idk the exact timing bc it’s been a while but Yeah

Well. The IRL explanation for these things is almost definitely “because it looks cool”, and I’m definitely making way more of it than there is, but behold. I have basically informed my opinion on Karr’s personality (behind the whole scared for his life thing) from these things. Because, as a hyper-intelligent AI, he really shouldn’t be able to make these sort of “dumb” mistakes, right?

The best I’ve got, then, is that he’s a LOT more influenced by emotions than Kitt is. I don’t know whether I’d go as far as to say that he experiences them MORE, because Kitt clearly does have them... I think he’s just more cautious by nature, so he doesn’t really let himself act on them much. Karr, though? He’s impulsive, and easily swayed off course by panic, anger, sadness, etc. That’s why, despite being just as smart as Kitt is, he often makes far less rational decisions.

He drove off a cliff because he was so scared that he just acted on impulse without doing any of the AI rationalizing stuff we’re used to seeing from Kitt. If he’d have cleared his mind enough to scan ahead and process the routes as he drove, he would have made a different decision. That’s Kitt’s biggest advantage in their fights, and it would be his greatest contribution if the two were ever to team up; both of them can smash things, but only one of them can work properly under pressure.

Even down to his programming--code can be changed, so it’s not the law that we often think of it as. It’s just a very, VERY strong suggestion. Kitt has never tried to change it; he’s never even CONSIDERED it. Karr, though? He reached his breaking point. The thought of continuing to live his life on the run, unable to trust anyone or stay anywhere, was enough to drive him crazy. He COULDN’T bring himself to continue with FLAG--and specifically Michael and Kitt--constantly on his tail. So, he snapped and overrode his very foundation. He’d either get rid of them or die trying.

That’s probably the core of why Devon was so scared of him, without providing much of a concrete reason. Because Karr’s unpredictable, far closer to human than they’d ever expected him to be. Even when he was on their side, they didn’t think they could trust him not to change his mind, or make a snap decision that endangered everyone involved. I think he could have gotten control of it over time, but it definitely makes more sense that they wouldn’t want to work with him in this state. Their response to it is still immoral imo, but if they didn’t fully realize his sentience and just saw it as a programming fluke, then I could see where it seemed necessary. Especially if an accident like that had already happened... Not gonna elaborate on that here; I’ve made a post about it, and tbh I probably shouldn’t have because it wasn’t my idea in the slightest. It’s just such a good headcanon that I basically adopted it immediately AHSIDO (Yes I did credit the fren in the original post, but it still just wasn’t the ideal way to go about it tbh, that’s why I’m not linking either. If you really wanna scroll for it, it is still there so go for it ig best of luck to ye IASHDOHSA, but otherwise it’s really not mine to tell)

Headcanons that are so extremely Not Canon / for AUs

While the Karr that is in canon hasn’t had much time to be in the world, and thus is far less worldly than Kitt is, I would think that it would come much more naturally to him than his brother if given the chance. I mean heck, he developed a whole salesman personality underwater sooo /lh That probably means that he also does that copying thing really well, too. Like, how Kitt picked up on the Trucker jargon that one time and got excited and parroted it for a bit... it happens pretty often, but that’s the clearest example I’ve got right now oops. Anyway, I think Karr does that, too, but incorporates it in a somewhat more stealthy way. Because if he messed up people will be Trying to Murder Him Again.

All I’m saying is. One of them might have a chance of understanding meme culture and that one sure as heck isn’t Kitt.

Like, I actually think that Karr and Michael would have... shockingly similar personalities if Karr actually got to understand the world and himself better? If they’d stop hating each other for a second, I think they’d get along really well. Both loyalty driven, both impulsive due to emotionality, both sometimes make dumb decision because they just care too much... bothwouldprobablydieforKitteventhoughhedhateit oops what’s that my brothers bias showing????

Anyway, how this applies in Human!AU is that Karr can blend into human life really well. Like, he’s just as curious and unsure as Kitt is, but he quickly picks up on the basic behaviors that people around him are routinely using and integrates them so as not to stick out. And then, as time goes on, he just would kind of figure out what it all means himself, to the point where he’s reverse engineered how to be human with quite good accuracy. Whereas Kitt is always very curious and is quite open about it, because why wouldn’t he be y’know he’s not used to hiding, so he’d probably stand out a lot more at first if he didn’t have Michael there to do most of the talking and explain things for him. Idk if that makes any sense but yeah. I just love the thought of Karr actually being the knowledgeable older sibling because he’s had much more time to adjust to his new form, and like he actually has a whole life of his own going on that he’s basically just disappeared into until Michael and Kitt show up. Kitt asks him stuff, and he almost always has an answer. On occasion, those answers are confidently incorrect. But he’s trying OAHSDOIHSA

Also Karr and Michael bickering about basically everything, things that don’t matter in the slightest, while Kitt’s just standing there making sure it doesn’t go too far. The second it starts going south “Why does it matter anyway?” and everyone’s just dead silent. It didn’t matter they just had a bad case of the Himbos.

Like, it’s pretty easy to forget that Karr’s an AI after you’ve been talking to him for a while. But then you ask him something when he’s not worked up about anything, and he provides this Giggachad Massive Brain response and it’s like “oh YEAH”

Love Language

BECAUSE WHY NOT

Actually tho, I genuinely think love language is so important to his character specifically. You can take it as romantic if you want, that’s not how I personally mean it in this case tho. I mean how he addresses the people that he cares about, no matter what the nature of it is.

See, a lot of the (in my mind) misunderstandings about his character stem from how he acted whenever he got a new pilot. Like, with Tony and Rev, it could be easy to think that he was being walked all over by them and that he was entirely aimless. It would also be easy to think that, no, he did have a motivation, because he wanted to steal things + kidnap people. Same with John to a lesser extent, because John never told him to do the bad things, just also didn’t really try to get him to do good things either. So surely Karr chose to do bad because he really, really just wanted to?

But I think that, while it doesn’t excuse his bad decisions (ESPECIALLY not the ones that put people’s lives in danger), a lot of it can be explained by love language. Karr, simply put, has the Acts of Service love language.

The reason Karr let Tony and Rev direct him however they wished is because, after they inadvertently rescued him from deactivation, he felt indebted and was genuinely grateful. He showed it by DOING whatever they asked of him. And all he hoped was that they would get him help in exchange, which they did in about the most awful way possible but yeah.

And then John came along, and Karr is DESPERATELY trying to do the same thing... John never asks for his help with, anything really, but Karr is proactively trying to get him to ask for something. Doesn’t matter what, he’ll do it. It becomes increasingly frustrating when his acts of service aren’t seen as good enough, when he technically had what he needed but was still sorely lacking a friend. And then he started going to truly awful extremes to show through ACTION that he was a loyal friend, that whether John thought he needed a companion or not, he’d be there, he PROMISED.

He also, to a somewhat lesser extent, takes action against those who have wronged him, as if to say “I’m done caring, and I’ll SHOW you how”, y’know? A lot of it was out of self defense, but still important to mention ig.

You could say that this is due to the nature of them being AIs right, like built to provide a service from the beginning so I’m SURE they do feel that way yea. However, I honestly feel like Kitt would express care through basically anything other than that. Like, acts of service are the bare minimum, he’d do THAT for anybody because he was made for it. If he goes out of his way to spend time with you, though--or in an human!AU, if he leans into a hug--then he really does care. So, I really am not just defaulting to this. I think Karr specifically thinks of it as more than his obligation, it’s his great joy to show how much he cares.

I think there were more things, but also this post is so long already what IOASHDOSAD- I’m also . kinda sleepy so I’m sorry if this doesn’t make sense oo f- And I hope that it’s worth the wait aa ahhh

#knight rider #knight rider 1982 #karr #k.a.r.r.#headcanon #ramblings and nonsense

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taste-in-music · 5 years

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Reacting to Charli, baby!

If you were wondering why I hadn’t mentioned her in my last Music Monday post, this is why! I haven’t done one of these long album reaction posts in a long, long while, (not since Love + Fear, I believe,) and this is an album I’ve been hyped for, so I figured why not? I’ve heard a lot of the singles, but there are still many surprises to by had. Listen along to the album with me if you want, and without further ado, let’s ride.

Next Level Charli

I’m getting big “Vroom Vroom” vibes from this?

I’ve got it. This song is like the inverse to “Vroom Vroom.” It’s got the same anthemic bombast to it from the vocal delivery and lyrics, but with a brighter sound. The synths are high and glistening rather than low and abrasive.

The lyrics are super sweet. Maybe a dedication to the fans?

All right Charli, I’m ready to go to the next level.

Gone ft. Christine and the Queens

God this song still slams into the exosphere. The verses have so much taut tension to them with the bubbling synths and snappy drums, and then the chorus comes and hits you like a ton of bricks.

Also can we talk about how relatable the lyrics are? This is one giant shoutout to everyone that’s an insecure and antisocial mess at any party or gathering. Thank you for making a song for our kind Charli.

Christine and the Queens’s voice has this amazing fluidity to it, it must be the French in her. (Also, when she sings in French during the bridge? DEAD.)

Still meh on the outro though.

Cross You Out ft. Sky Ferreira

We’ve got some more aggressive production on this song, which is cool. It contrasts nicely with the more lilting vocals.

GIMME THOSE SKY FERREIRA CRUMBS. WHEN ARE WE GETTING MASOCHISM???!?!

If you listen to the bridge with good headphones you can hear these really low backing vocals from Sky that rattle the nape of your neck, they’re amazing.

I do wish it was a bit more experimental though, it does stay fairly constant through the entirety of the song and makes it a bit of a bland listen. Doesn’t mean I don’t like it, though.

1999 ft. Troye Sivan

Bop. Next.

Okay, I should actually say something about this, shouldn’t I?

I think it’s pretty cool that a song about 90s throwbacks actually does all it can to sound like it was plucked right out of the 90s. The production is bouncy, sparkly, and seamless, filled with glitching synths, sharp drums, and cute little ad-libs that make it a ton of fun. (That little “hee-hee” that Troye does after mentioning Michael Jackson? Art.)

I’m not usually into stuff that cashes into cheap nostalgia with little commentary as to why that nostalgia is wanted, (the main difference between me liking a song like “Ribs” by Lorde vs. “2002″ by Anne-Marie for example,) but whatever. This is catchy as heck. I love it.

Click ft. Kim Petras and Tommy Cash

Ooh, looks like we’re getting spooky here. This sounds very Turn Off The Lights and Pop 2.

We got a “woo-ah!” Kim Petras is here!

I’ve never heard of Tommy Cash or listened to any of his music. I don’t know if his sound is quite for me, but maybe I’ll look into his solo work later.

This isn’t a favorite of mine so far, (it’s far more avant garde than the other songs,) but I don’t know. I see it having its time and place, specifically when I want to feel like a bad bitch.

Warm ft. HAIM

Those keys! Those gentle synths! Hearing this production with headphones on is heavenly.

I never thought that Charli XCX and HAIM could work on a track together. HAIM is a very acoustic-driven band that takes inspiration from the past, and Charli always leans into more futuristic, synthetic ideas, but HAIM slip into Charli’s sound pretty well here.

Overall, it’s not a standout, but I don’t dislike it. My consensus isn’t especially hot or cold, it’s WARM.

I’m so sorry.

Thoughts

Well that intro brought me to attention very quickly. Am I in a Windows startup?

Those high notes are the best part of the song. Charli’s got range! Her vocals sound really full and rich here, especially on the verses.

Ironically, I don’t have many thoughts on this song overall.

I’m so sorry.

Blame It On Your Love ft. Lizzo

I already know that I love this song. Let’s get to bopping!

Small detail but the snare drums on this song are great.

This song has a drop that doesn’t suck, and I can’t stress how rare and refreshing that is. It sounds like a shot of caffeine, buzzy and colorful and not long enough.

Can we all agree that Lizzo is a blessing unto this Earth? Charisma rolls off her in waves. I don’t think I’ve ever been so sad for a rap verse to end in a pop song.

What an amazing song.

White Mercedes

The vulnerability in the lyrics on this song matched the subtler production sounds great.

Charli’s vocals sounds??? So good??? I don’t want this to come across the wrong way, but I never really listened to her music for her vocal prowess. Her strong suit always laid in delivering energy and an assertive presence, (like on “I Love It” or “Break The Rules.”) But this song shows just how downright lovely she can sound.

This is stacking up to be one of my favorite non-singles on this album. What a wonderful surprise this turned out to be.

Silver Cross

This is all right. I don’t have much to say on it. It’s got some interesting production elements and a solid vocal performance. It’s middle of the road.

In hindsight this maybe could’ve been cut.

I Don’t Wanna Know

We’ve got a more moody, atmospheric sound for this song. The drums and synths have lots of echo to them, giving the mix a sense of space. It’s like Charli’s the singer in a smoky room from “Don’t Stop Believin.’”

While it’s nice that the album takes a break from the glittery pop hooks and bombastic party jams, I do think this is a tad dull.

Official

I like those little punches of synth that make up the rhythm in the first verse.

OH MY GOD, the sparkling synths and tinkling keys on this track, they sound like flowers blooming and glimmering gemstones, that is GORGEOUS.

The way that the production builds on this song by laying in the sounds one by one is really interesting. Some of the effect is lost by the way the backing track is frequently paused throughout the song, which is kind of annoying, but the idea is there, and it’s cool. I like it in theory.

Shake It ft. Big Freedia, cupcakKe, and Pablo Vittar

I’ve heard a lot of good things about cupcakKe’s solo work and I know that she’s worked with Charli in the past, and I also know that Pablo Vittar and Charli made “Flash Pose” recently,” but I haven’t heard any of the solo work from these guest features, so I have no clue what to expect.

Those water sounds and how they meld into glitchy techno noises and then breaths? The dual tracking that moves from ear to ear and the whispered vocals? Her mind?

This is a wild ride with headphones on.

Febrary 2017 ft. Clairo and Yaeji

I didn’t listen to this despite it being released as a single. I wanted to be a surprise for the album.

Clairo’s low key voice works pretty well with the slithery vocal production that Charli often uses. I guess the glitchiness of Charli’s sound would compliment a bedroom pop artist.

The way the production explodes! This sounds fantastic! Holy moly! It’s like diving into a cotton candy wonderland!

That switch up into Yaeji’s part is pretty jarring though. While I like the cooing, gentle vocals and minimal production, it upright clashes with the first half of the track. If it had been worked into the previous production rather than cutting away from it I think it might’ve worked better.

This song comes across more as a mish-mash of ideas rather than a polished final product. I think maybe another draft could’ve improved it. Still, I do love the ideas it presents.

2099 ft. Troye Sivan

That last song! My my my how 50 minutes have flown by.

That heartbeat at the start of the song!

Okay this song is kind of all over the place. I don’t know if I have any definite thoughts on it.

Still, if this is what music sounds like in 2099 I won’t necessarily be complaining.

My Thoughts Summarized: This album feels like Charli half wanted to go avant-garde, half wanted to go mainstreen-friendly. This leads to a couple of confused moments, but also to some songs that meet those two options in the middle. While I feel like a few tracks could’ve been reworked or cut, I do like this project a lot. Charli really brought the bops and stepped it up with the vocals and lyrics. My favorite songs at the moment are probably “Gone,” “Blame It One Your Love,” and “White Mercedes.”

Can we talk about how gorgeous the visuals for this album have been, not only with the album art but with the music videos too? We had the badass prosthetics for “Blame It On Your Love,” the 90s throwback with “1999,” and Charli and Chris dancing on a car in the rain. I love it.

What did you think of Charli? Agree or disagree? Comment or reblog with your thoughts, I’m excited to hear what you think.

#music #album review #charli xcx #charli #taste in music

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thrashermaxey · 6 years

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Ramblings: Vegas Edge Jets; Ekman-Larsson; Klefbom; Forward Shot Rates – May 17

Vegas played its first-ever home Conference Final game and managed to skate away with a 4-2 win. They started off flying as Jonathan Marchessault broke in alone and deked to the backhand on Connor Hellebuyck just 35 seconds into the game. Mark Scheifele would square things early in the second period with a goal of his own but James Neal took advantage of a Hellebuyck stickhandling gaffe second later to make it 2-1. Alex Tuch would add a goal and that’s all the Golden Knights would need even with Scheifele adding his second.

Game 3 between Vegas and Winnipeg had just about everything. We had nice goals, nice (and some lucky) saves, a few big hits, and… tickling?

TICKLE TICKLE pic.twitter.com/hFJJPa5d5k

— NHL on NBC (@NHLonNBCSports) May 17, 2018

That wasn’t all from Marc-Andre Fleury, though. With the Jets pressing hard in the third period, he robbed Scheifele twice with a pair of top-notch saves:

HOLY MOLY WHAT A GOALIE pic.twitter.com/UYHHF7GZT8

— NHL on NBC (@NHLonNBCSports) May 17, 2018

Something about Fleury making sliding saves in the playoffs…

Both teams traded chances in this one. It seemed like the Marchessault line was getting an odd-man rush every other shift while Mathieu Perreault blew it on a nearly-wide open net and Patrik Laine clanked iron just minutes apart in the second period. And, as mentioned, it was basically all Winnipeg in the third. Had the Hockey Gods been a little less fickle, this game could look wildly different.

I suppose that’s the best part of this series. Sure, each team is getting lucky in their own respects, but they’re creating the opportunities and conditions for that luck. They’re creating chances and getting to the net using their speed and skill. Something, something good to be lucky.

This should be a a wonderful series to watch as a neutral hockey fan.

A report from Craig Morgan at Arizona Sports indicates that the Arizona Coyotes and Oliver Ekman-Larsson are in discussions for a contract extension. Not that it’s a surprise they’re discussing it, but the fact that terms are reported would at least indicate to me that they’re getting close.

OEL turns 27 this summer and has one year left on his current contract.

There had been some rumblings over the last year that Arizona may look to move Ekman-Larsson but outside of a lopsided, blockbuster package, this avenue always made the most sense. He’s a number-1 defenceman currently in his mid-20s. As long as he doesn’t turn into Brent Seabrook they should be fine.

Assuming Arizona signs Jakob Chychrun next year as his ELC runs out, that gives the Coyotes a top-4 of Ekman-Larsson, Jason Demers, Alex Goligoski, and Chychrun through the 2020-2021 season, along with Antti Raanta. With Clayton Keller looking like a gamebreaker, and a bevy of prospects to come, the future is indeed bright in the desert. Don’t discount them short-term, though. If their depth can fill out a bit this season, they’ll make noise in the West.

Those with OEL shares in cap leagues, start budgeting to add at least $2.5-million after the 2018-19 season. Whether he’s worth it for you depends on roster construction.

An interesting little tidbit:

"Is there potential for a Klefbom swap out to Buffalo, maybe along with that pick? I'm spitballing a lot of stuff here but my overriding sentiment is, I believe the Oilers will be aggressive in hunting some of the big names…" https://t.co/dNIFSwKpn2

— dellowhockey (@dellowhockey) May 16, 2018

That is in reference to Ryan RIshaug of TSN saying that it appears the Oilers may be looking for a major shake-up.

What they actually end up doing, well, we have another month or so to wait and see. They need depth, they need scoring, they need defencemen. One trade isn’t going to do it. On the other hand, leave it to Peter Chiarelli to trade Oscar Klefbom following a season where he played injured the entire year and had his performance suffer because of it. I want Chiarelli as a GM in my fantasy leagues.

A couple days ago in these Ramblings there was a discussion about league-wide shot rates, their increase over the last couple years, and how this affects fantasy leagues. As Cam pointed out in his Ramblings yesterday, power plays and penalty kills are a part of the rise in goal scoring. That’s a fascinating topic that should get a lot of coverage this summer. For all the fans bellowing “shooooot” with their team on the PP, the players were more efficient than they have been in decades with the man advantage. Maybe they know what they’re doing.

Either way, the discussion on goal scoring is going to be set aside from my perspective for a little bit. This will be a continuation of shot rates league-wide and as promised, we’re going to dive down to the player level. Today will cover forwards. As usual, data from Natural Stat Trick.

As mentioned in those Ramblings on Tuesday, shot rates at five-on-five at the team level have increased by a significant margin. Read those Ramblings for a little primer.

Here’s the thing: there hasn’t been a commensurate rise in average shot rate among forwards. In 2013-14, the average forward had an individual shot attempt rate per 60 minutes at five-on-five of 12.352. This past season, that number was 12.416. That’s a rise of about one half of one percent. In 2014-15, when we had a five-year low of league-wide shot rates, the average individual shot attempt rate per 60 minutes at five-on-five among forwards was 12.007. As mentioned, this year’s average shot rate was 12.416. That’s a rise of about 3.29 percent.

Long story short, the rise in league-wide shot rates has led to more goals, but the rise in average shot rates among forwards has not been in lock-step with the league. In fact, the shot rates in 2017-18 are very similar to what they were in 2013-14.

League-wide conversion rates have gone up, though. In 2017-18, forwards scored on 5.382 percent of shot attempts. Back in 2013-14, that conversion rate was 5.229 percent. It might not seem like a huge difference, but keep in mind that we’re talking about tens of thousands of shot attempts. For example, on the 71 583 shot attempts forwards took in 2013-14, if we apply he 2017-18 conversion rate of 5.382 percent, it yields an extra 109.6 goals. That’s a lot of goals.

What does this mean for fantasy? Of course, goals and shots are devalued because they are more prevalent than they have been in years. Moreover, goaltending in fantasy is as important as ever. That’s a problem. Everyone knows how much volatility there is in goaltending. Pekka Rinne was average-to-bad for a half-decade and this year he’s a Vezina finalist. Carey Price was as dominant as we’ve seen from a goaltender this century for a four-year stretch and in 2017-18 he would have been a poor backup goalie. The examples go on and on but fantasy owners know the deal with goalies.

Depending on perspective, this is a problem or an opportunity in the fantasy game. For example, the top-5 goalies by ADP on ESPN (Holtby, Price, Murray, Bobrovsky, and Talbot) finished with the following season-end ranks on ESPN’S Player Rater among goalies only: 33rd, 74th, 42nd, 6th, and 43rd. No goalie with an ADP among the top-5 goalies actually finished as a top-5 goalie. If we expand to the top-10 by ADP, we add Jones, Dubnyk, Rinne, Rask, and Quick. Only Rask, Rinne, and Quick finished among the top-10 goalies. In other words, four goalies drafted in the top-10 by ADP on ESPN finished as top-10 goalies. They’re horrific investments.

It’s something to be covered deeper as the summer wears on but it’s probably time to treat goalies in fantasy hockey as if they were running backs in fantasy football: avoid drafting them early and stockpile them in the mid-to-late rounds. Just a thought.

That was a bit of a goalie tangent but whomst among us hasn’t gone off on a goalie tangent once in a while.

The last part to cover is shot volume among forwards.

The average number of shots on goal at five-on-five by a forward in 2013-14 was 79.26. This past season, it was 83.53. Given that we know shot attempts have gone up over the last four years, this is not a surprise. What is a surprise the distribution of those shots.

In 2017-18, there was an explosion of middle-of-the-road shot totals. Each season from 2013-14 through 2016-17 saw between 130-135 forwards post between 100 and 149 shots. Last year, the number of forwards jumped to 158. The jump in forwards posting 100-150 shots in 2017-18 compared to the seasons 2013-14 through 2016-17 was 16.14 percent. On the other hand, the number of forwards that posted 150 or more didn’t climb nearly as much. In 2017-18, there were 54 forwards to manage at least 150, representing an increase of 13.43 percent. As explained in yesterday’s Rambings, the middling totals are becoming more abundant. The elite totals are as well, just not at the same rate.

All this is only at five-on-five and power-play production is a huge factor in fantasy performance. It’s just to point out that we should be coveting the guys that can put up elite shot rates more than we have in recent seasons. The automatics like Alex Ovechkin and Vladimir Tarasenko are obvious but don’t forget guys like Tyler Toffoli, Jeff Skinner, or Brendan Gallagher. Power-play minutes have to be factored in before final determinations are made, but guys like that are important to finishing atop shot totals in your fantasy league.

Just as a small aside: this is what the distribution of forward shot totals for each of the last five seasons looks like. You’ll notice how the elite shot totals (over 220) of even two years ago don’t exist anymore but there is a higher density in the ~130-200 range. Also, the curve from 2017-18 shifted right from 2016-17, which shows the general increase in shots:

Let’s summarize the last couple Ramblings:

Shot rates at five-on-five across the league are increasing and forward shot rates are increasing with it.

Not only are shot rates increasing, but conversion rates are as well. A lot more studying needs to be done into why but this is bad news for goalies.

The increased shot rates mean more volume at all levels but we are seeing a larger increase in middling totals than we are elite totals.

This is but one small piece of the puzzle we’ll be putting together all summer trying to figure out how to best allocate draft picks come September and which players we should value. As promised, tomorrow we will focus on defencemen and how their shot and goal rates are changing.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-vegas-edge-jets-ekman-larsson-klefbom-forward-shot-rates-may-17/

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