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theculturedmarxist · 9 months

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Democrats lately have been basking in good news. The fourth Trump indictment! Continued success for abortion rights (the defeat of the Ohio referendum)! Good news on “Bidenomics” (slowing inflation and strong job creation)!

The sentiment seems to be: we got this! How could we lose to a candidate (assuming it’s Trump) who’s under a blizzard of legal scrutiny for undermining democracy and represents a party that wants to take away women’s right to choose—especially when we, the good guys, are doing such a great job with the economy?

This “how can we lose?” attitude is uncomfortably reminiscent of Democrats’ attitude in 2016. Then too they thought they couldn’t lose. And yet they did.

Perhaps it’s time to take out an insurance policy. It may be the case that a multiply-indicted Trump is now toxic to enough voters and abortion rights such a strong motivator that even a candidate with Biden’s weaknesses will beat him easily. But it might not and that’s where the insurance policy comes in.

Consider that right now the race looks very, very close. The RealClearPolitics poll average has Biden ahead of Trump by a slender four-tenths of a percentage point. If that was Biden’s national lead on election day, he’d probably lose the presidency due to electoral college bias that favors Republicans.

In the latest Quinnipiac poll, Biden has a one-point lead over Trump consistent with the running average. Among white working-class (noncollege) voters, he’s behind by 34 points, considerably worse than he did in 2020. If Trump (or another Republican) does manage to prevail in 2024, we can be fairly sure that a pro-GOP surge among these voters will have something to do with it.

States of Change simulations show that, all else equal, a strong white working class surge in 2024 would deliver the election to the GOP. Even a small one could potentially do the trick. In an all-else-equal context, I estimate just a one-point increase in Republican support among the white working class and a concomitant one-point decrease in Democratic support (for a 2-point margin swing) would deliver Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin (and the election) to the Republicans. Make it a 2-point increase in GOP support and you can throw in Pennsylvania too.

So an insurance policy to prevent such a swing is in order.

The problem: these are very unhappy voters. In the Quinnipiac poll, white working-class voters give Biden an overall 25 percent approval rating versus 70 percent disapproval and 72 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him. On handling the economy, Biden’s rating is even worse—24 percent approval and 73 percent disapproval. Just 20 percent say the economy is excellent or good, compared to 79 percent who say it is not so good or poor. By 63 to 16 percent, these voters believe the economy is getting worse not better. Evidently they haven’t yet heard the good news about Bidenomics.

The temptation among Democrats is to ascribe the stubborn resistance of these voters to Democratic appeals and openness to those of Trump and right populists to misinformation from Fox News and the like and, worse, to the fundamentally racist, reactionary nature of this voter group. The roots of this view go back to the aftermath of the 2016 election.

As analysts sifted through the wreckage of Democratic performance in 2016 trying to understand where all the Trump voting had come from, some themes began to emerge. One was geographical. Across county-level studies, it was clear that low educational levels among whites was a very robust predictor of shifts toward Trump. These studies also indicated that counties that swung toward Trump tended to be dependent on low-skill jobs, relatively poor performers on a range of economic measures and had local economies particularly vulnerable to automation and offshoring. Finally, there was strong evidence that Trump-swinging counties tended to be literally “sick” in the sense that their inhabitants had relatively poor physical health and high mortality due to alcoholism, drug abuse, and suicide.

The picture was more complicated when it came to individual level characteristics related to Trump voting, especially Obama-Trump voting. There were a number of correlates with Trump voting. They included some aspects of economic populism—opposition to cutting Social Security and Medicare, suspicion of free trade and trade agreements, taxing the rich—as well as traditional populist attitudes like anti-elitism and mistrust of experts. But the star of the show, so to speak, was a variable labelled “racial resentment” by political scientists, which many studies showed bore a strengthened relationship to Republican presidential voting in 2016.

This variable is a scale created from questions like: “Irish, Italian, Jewish, and many other minorities overcame prejudice and worked their way up. Blacks should do the same without any special favors.” The variable is widely and uncritically employed by political scientists to indicate racial animus despite the obvious problem that statements such as these correspond closely to a generic conservative view of avenues to social mobility. And indeed political scientists Riley Carney and Ryan Enos have shown that responses to questions like these change very little if you substitute “Nepalese” or “Lithuanians” for blacks. That implies the questions that make up the scale tap views that are not at all specific to blacks. Carney and Enos term these views “just world belief” which sounds quite a bit different from racial resentment.

But in the aftermath of the Trump election, researchers continued to use the same scale with the same name and the same interpretation with no caveats. The strong relationship of the scale to Trump voting was proof, they argued, that Trump support, including vote-switching from Obama to Trump, was simply a matter of activating underlying racism and xenophobia. Imagine though how these studies might have landed like if they had tied Trump support to activating just world belief, which is an eminently reasonable interpretation of their star variable, instead of racial resentment. The lack of even a hint of interest in exploring this alternative interpretation strongly suggests that the researchers’ own political beliefs were playing a strong role in how they chose to pursue and present their studies.

In short, they went looking for racism—and they found it.

Other studies played variations on this theme, adding variables around immigration and even trade to the mix, where negative views were presumed to show “status threat” or some other euphemism for racism and xenophobia. As sociologist Stephen Morgan has noted in a series of papers, this amounts to a labeling exercise where issues that have a clear economic component are stripped of that component and reduced to simple indicators of unenlightened social attitudes. Again, it seems clear that researchers’ priors and political beliefs were heavily influencing both their analytical approach and their interpretation of results.

And there is an even deeper problem with the conventional view. Start with a fact that was glossed over or ignored by most studies: trends in so-called racial resentment went in the “wrong” direction between the 2012 and 2016 election. That is, fewer whites had high levels of racial resentment in 2016 than 2012. This make racial resentment an odd candidate to explain the shift of white voters toward Donald Trump in the 2016 election.

Political scientists Justin Grimmer and William Marble investigated this conundrum intensively by looking directly at whether an indicator like racial resentment really could explain, or account for, the shift of millions of white votes toward Trump. The studies that gave pride of place to racial resentment as an explanation for Trump’s victory did no such accounting; they simply showed a stronger relationship between this variable and Republican voting in 2016 and thought they’d provided a complete explanation.

They had not. When you look at the actual population of voters and how racial resentment was distributed in 2016, as Grimmer and Marble did, it turns out that the racial resentment explanation simply does not fit what really happened in terms of voter shifts. A rigorous accounting of vote shifts toward Trump shows instead that they were primarily among whites, especially low education whites, with moderate views on race and immigration, not whites with high levels of racial resentment. In fact, Trump actually netted fewer votes among whites with high levels of racial resentment than Mitt Romney did in 2012.

Grimmer and Marble did a followup study with Cole Tanigawa-Lau that included data from the 2020 election. The study was covered in a New York Times article by Thomas Edsall. In the article, Grimmer described the significance of their findings:

Our findings provide an important correction to a popular narrative about how Trump won office. Hillary Clinton argued that Trump supporters could be placed in a “basket of deplorables.” And election-night pundits and even some academics have claimed that Trump’s victory was the result of appealing to white Americans’ racist and xenophobic attitudes. We show this conventional wisdom is (at best) incomplete. Trump’s supporters were less xenophobic than prior Republican candidates’ [supporters], less sexist, had lower animus to minority groups, and lower levels of racial resentment. Far from deplorables, Trump voters were, on average, more tolerant and understanding than voters for prior Republican candidates… [The data] point to two important and undeniable facts. First, analyses focused on vote choice alone cannot tell us where candidates receive support. We must know the size of groups and who turns out to vote. And we cannot confuse candidates’ rhetoric with the voters who support them, because voters might support the candidate despite the rhetoric, not because of it.

So much for the racial resentment explanation of Trump’s victory. Not only is racial resentment a misnamed variable that does not mean what people think it means, it literally cannot account for the actual shifts that occurred in the 2016 election. Clearly a much more complex explanation for Trump’s victory was—or should have been—in order, integrating negative views on immigration, trade and liberal elites with a sense of unfairness rooted in just world belief. That would have helped Democrats understand why voters in Trump-shifting counties, whose ways of life were being torn asunder by economic and social change, were so attracted to Trump’s appeals.

Such understanding was nowhere to be found, however, in Democratic ranks. The racism-and-xenophobia interpretation quickly became dominant, partly because it was in many ways simply a continuation of the approach Clinton had taken during her campaign and that most Democrats accepted. Indeed, it became so dominant that simply to question the interpretation reliably opened the questioner to accusations that he or she did not take the problem of racism seriously enough.

We are still living in that world. Scratch a Democrat today and you will find lurking not far beneath the surface—if beneath the surface at all—a view of white working-class voters and their populist, pro-Trump leanings as reflecting these voters’ unyielding racism and xenophobia.

This is neither substantively justified nor politically productive. Democrats desperately need that insurance policy for 2024 and getting rid of these attitudes toward 40 percent of the electorate (much more in key states!) should be part of it. Think of it as a down payment on the “de-Brahminization” of the Democratic Party. This attitude adjustment might irritate some of their activist supporters, but considering the stakes, that seems like a small price to pay for a potentially vital insurance policy.

#2016 presidential election #democrats #voting #racism #working class

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maswartz · 3 months

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Do NOT get complacent!

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thehardnewsdaily · 15 hours

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President Biden leads Donald Trump by 6 points in a new Quinnipiac poll from Wisconsin, gaining support from Independents, young voters, and seniors.

Despite past questions about poll accuracy, this boost energizes Democrats as the 2024 race intensifies.

#Election2024 #WisconsinPoll #BidenVsTrump

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arpov-blog-blog · 1 month

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Yesterday I wrote about 18 polls taken in recent weeks which have Biden leading. A new one came out yesterday afternoon, TIPP, which has Biden up 43-40. So 19 polls with Biden leads now. If we look at just the polls released in the last 2 weeks, 10 have Biden ahead, 7 have Trump ahead, and 2 have the race tied. Here are the 10 with Biden ahead (all polls via 538):

43-40 TIPP

51-49 Emerson (likely voters)

48-45 McLaughlin (likely voters)

52-48 Marquette

47-46 Data For Progress

50-48 NPR/Marist

42-40 Big Village

44-42 Morning Consult

48-45 Quinnipiac

44-43 Noble Predictive

These clear gains for Biden have come at a time when my more upbeat take on the election is getting a lot of attention due to my recent interview with Adam Nagourney in the New York Times. I was able to share these polls and this movement we are seeing last week with Nicole Wallace and Lawrence O’Donnell on MSNBC.

Why have I been writing about this so much? Because it really matters. It’s my view that once it becomes understood Trump is no longer ahead we will start to get a more honest assessment of the strength and weaknesses of the two candidates; that this perception Trump is ahead and strong have masked his historic awfulness, and the clear problems with his campaign and his party. For in my view Trump is weak, not strong. He’s struggling to raise money. He’s facing an unprecedented revolt inside his party, causing a potentially fatal splintering of his coalition. MAGA lost in 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2023, and lost the big early 2024 bellwether, NY-3, by 8 points!!!!!!!!! The RNC is in disarray and months behind Biden organizationally without enough time to make it up. Many prominent Republicans in Congress are retiring, quitting and abandoning ship. Trump may be in the process of ousting another Speaker. His agenda is much further away from the electorate than before. His performance on the stump is significantly degraded, far more impulsive, erratic and disturbing. He wears more make up than a drag queen. He keeps losing and getting humiliated in court. He’s an adjudicated rapist. He committed one of the largest financial frauds in American history. His new company is already failing. He stole America’s secrets, lied to the FBI it all, and shared those secrets with others. He tried to end American democracy for all time in 2021 and has promised to finish the job if he gets back into the White House. He and his family have corruptly taken more money from foreign governments than any family in US history. He is singularly responsible for ending Roe, stripping the rights and freedoms away from the women of America, and yesterday endorsed the most severe abortion restrictions in the states, which are without doubt, the most extreme policy enacted in America in many generations. He’s the ugliest political thing we’ve all ever seen, and all of this ugliness and structural weakness is being largely dismissed because the perception that he leads in polling makes him “strong.”

I think the media narrative about this election is slowly changing. Not only is my far more favorable take on the election getting significant consideration right now, but look at what Axios published on Sunday - Trump protest vote warnings -

“A month after Nikki Haley dropped out of the Republican race, former President Trump is still dealing with a contingent of voters showing up to cast primary ballots for candidates who aren't him.

"Why it matters: President Biden has more successfully unified his voters despite never facing a strong primary opponent and an organized protest vote over the war in Gaza.

In 10 recent primary contests, more than one-quarter of GOP primary voters cast a ballot for a non-Trump candidate.

"Joe Biden has a real golden opportunity to capture all those disaffected people who voted for Nikki Haley," said Arizona-based GOP strategist Barrett Marson.

Driving the news: In the key battleground state of Wisconsin on Tuesday, 20.8% of Republican primary voters cast a ballot for a candidate other than Trump.

Haley, the former UN ambassador who suspended her campaign a month ago, drew more than 12%, or 76,000 votes, in Wisconsin, which Biden won by just over 20,000 votes against Trump in 2020.

"Those are significant numbers," longtime Wisconsin Republican strategist Bill McCoshen told Axios.

"Will those voters come home in November? I think it's possible they will, history suggests that most of them will, but I think it's also a signal to the Trump campaign that his pick for a VP could be very critical to bringing these voters back."

Trump saw a larger share of protest votes in Wisconsin than Biden in the Democratic primary, where 8.3% of voters, or about 48,000, supported the "uninstructed" vote in protest of Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas war.

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bllsbailey · 1 month

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Biden Irritated With Press Coverage of Polls

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President Joe Biden recently expressed irritation with the press over coverage of his poll numbers — but his campaign maintained it's too far out from Election Day to rely on those surveys, reported The Hill.

A Quinnipiac University poll showed Biden narrowly ahead of former President Donald Trump, 48% to 45%. An aggregation of more than 600 polls has Trump with a 0.9 percentage point lead over Biden.

Biden has often complained about the poll coverage to rooms full of donors, according to The Hill.

"While we probably haven't read a lot about it, in the last few days, there have been several national polls showing us leading now," Biden said during a campaign stop Tuesday in Raleigh, North Carolina.

Last week in Houston, Biden's rhetoric was similar.

"While we probably haven't read a lot about it, in the last few days, there has been five national polls. The press — well, I like the press, but they don't talk about it very much. Five national polls having us leading since my State of the Union address," he said.

At a campaign reception on March 19 in Reno, Nevada, he stated: "By the way — and the press are all good guys in here — but they report a lot of polls.

"The last four polls out, we're winning. OK? But guess what? None of these polls mean a damn thing this early on, so we just got to keep at it."

Democratic communications strategist Katie Grant Drew said the president was likely "responding to a truism of campaign media coverage, which is that negative polls, by their very nature, draw more press attention. It's a necessary strategy for the president and his team to highlight positive numbers with donors to encourage and strengthen their support."

Solange Reyner ✉

Solange Reyner is a writer and editor for Newsmax. She has more than 15 years in the journalism industry reporting and covering news, sports and politics.

#Youtube

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truck-fump · 3 months

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Biden leading <b>Trump</b> 49 to 45 percent in new general election polling - YouTube

New Post has been published on https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DpJpus3eLiDE&ct=ga&cd=CAIyGjUzM2UwMTY5ZmFhZTIwMGQ6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AOvVaw3v-ADUajrOjCJlywxgC7V-

Biden leading Trump 49 to 45 percent in new general election polling - YouTube

President Biden is leading Donald Trump 49 to 45 percent in new Quinnipiac general election polling.

#Uncategorized

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when-the-cities-burn · 3 months

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Recent Quinnipiac Poll Results show extremely encouraging signs for the Biden campaign:

Among Independent Voters:

President Biden: 52%

Donald Trump: 40%

Among Women Voters:

President Biden: 58%

Donald Trump: 36%

General Election:

President Biden: 50%

Donald Trump: 44%

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nodynasty4us · 6 months

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Kennedy’s sway with young voters, as it appears in polls, has caught some Democrats off guard. ... Kennedy received a sizable amount of support among under 45-year-old voters in a poll released by The New York Times/Siena College. The same toss-up states that show voters supporting Trump slightly more than Biden also show Kennedy leading that constituency over the two front-runners. He’s been consistently on the rise, too. An even younger group of voters, between 18 and 34 years old, in a national Quinnipiac University survey also gave Kennedy the edge, in this case 6 points ahead of Biden and 11 points leading Trump, coming in at 38 percent to their respective 32 percent and 27 percent.

5 biggest questions around third-party and independent bids in 2024 | The Hill

#robert f kennedy jr #young people #2024 #polls #featured

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dertaglichedan · 10 months

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The harder Democrats hit Donald J. Trump, the higher his poll numbers go.

READ MORE: Was Last Week the Beginning of the End for Biden?

On June 8, the U.S. Department of Justice filed a federal indictment against Trump for allegedly mishandling classified records. But rather than sandbag Trump, Special Counsel Jack Smith’s 37 charges pumped helium into the reelection odds of America’s 45th president.

Trump’s Poll Numbers Rise Despite Indictment

Ten days later, ABC News anchor Jonathan Karl was astonished to see Trump rising in public opinion after becoming the first former president to face federal prosecution.

“A poll from Quinnipiac on a possible Biden/Trump matchup puts Biden at 48 percent, Trump at 44 percent,” Karl said on the June 18 edition of ABC’s This Week. “This is a poll, again, taken largely after the indictment. I mean, that’s going to make you — that’s within the margin of error. That’s a statistical tie. What does that say about Biden if he’s barely beating [Trump] or in some polls actually losing?” (READ MORE: Donald Trump Is the New Jimmy Stewart)

Trump’s showing is even more impressive when compared to that of his rivals for the GOP nomination.

In April, an NBC News survey found that 46 percent of likely voters in the 2024 Republican primaries backed Trump’s return to the Oval Office versus 31 percent who want Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis behind the Resolute Desk. Trump’s 15-point lead was impressive but not staggering.

No more.

On Sunday, a new NBC News poll discovered that Trump is the choice of 51 percent of Republican primary voters, with DeSantis now at 22 percent. RealClearPolitics’ survey average shows Trump at 52.1 percent and DeSantis at 21.5 percent. Now, Trump’s 30.6 percent margin is officially staggering.

NBC also found tepid support for the other GOP contenders. The all-forgiving former Vice President Mike Pence scored 7 percent. Chris Christie — New Jersey’s treacherous, execrable, self-humiliating former governor — stood at 5 percent. South Carolina’s former chief executive and Trump’s United Nations ambassador, Nikki Haley, earned 4 percent. Trump’s other Republican opponents all trailed the envoy.

To enormous applause, Trump told the Faith and Freedom Coalition on Saturday: “I’m probably the only person in the history of this country that’s been indicted, and my numbers went up.”

Americans Think Indictment Is Politically Motivated

How does Trump remain buoyant in the face of potential federal imprisonment? He remains higher than a Chinese spy balloon for two reasons:

First, about half the country believes that the legal proceedings against Trump involve a Venezuelan-style abuse of the justice system intended to hobble him for partisan purposes.

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg and Attorney General Merrick Garland confirm that America is now cursed with a Heaven-and-Hell justice system: Heaven for Democrats and Hell for Republicans. Equal justice under the law is dead, and Democrats murdered it.

Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, James Comey, former Clinton National Safety Council Chief Sandy Berger, former CIA Director John Deutch, FBI official Kevin Clinesmith, and other Democrats illegally mishandled classified documents, and nothing, or barely anything, happened to them. None of these people had the power to declassify anything, nor did any of them spend even an afternoon behind bars.

Meanwhile, Trump stored classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago residence. He did have declassification authority as president and the court-confirmed right to keep whichever presidential papers he, and only he, wished. Regardless, the FBI raided his home, and, before long, Trump got indicted.

This massive unfairness has rallied the GOP base and even made some independents and Democrats empathize with Trump. Relentless Democrat legal harassment has turned the steamroller-like Trump into a sympathetic figure.

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rjhamster · 1 year

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Trump leads DeSantis in hypothetical primary matchup, Biden still underwater in new poll | The Daily Conservative

Former President Donald Trump leads potential challenger Ron DeSantis in a hypothetical primary matchup, while President Joe Biden is still underwater in a new poll by Quinnipiac University released on Thursday. Republican and Republican-leaning voters supported Trump over DeSantis 42% to 36%, which is a pretty close margin considering that DeSantis isn’t even officially in — Read on…

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thesheel · 1 year

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With Joe Biden announcing that he will seek reelection in 2024, Donald Trump has also indicated running for the White House again next election. This clears many persistent doubts that were circulating in Democratic circles about the possible presidential nominees, with Kamala Harris’s hopes now perishing until 2028 at least. Trump’s Thanksgiving announcement paves yet another way for a Trump vs. Biden contest in 2024. With multiple Republicans gearing up for presidency in 2024, including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Texas Governor Greg Abbott, and the former Vice President Mike Pence, Trump is expected to go through the primaries, considering the widespread support he enjoys from Republican ranks. [caption id="attachment_10919" align="aligncenter" width="585"] The White House has indicated Biden's plans to run again in 2024 which puts an end to Kamala Harris' presidential ambitions for the time being.[/caption] Biden’s 2024 Announcement Can Smash Republicans Plans Joe Biden’s age has become a fault line in American politics, with naysayers often attacking him on his age and his ability to lead the country at such a high age. But, combined with his declining popularity, his aging is likely to play a significant role in his reelection. According to the latest Quinnipiac poll, Biden’s approval rating has dipped to 36 percent, signifying a deep distrust among voters even after the passage of the infrastructure bill. Democrats often stated that stalling the infrastructure legislation from Congress was the primary reason for their dwindling popularity, but the stats are suggesting otherwise. Nonetheless, with ten months into the presidency, forecasting the presidential results based on the current ratings will not be any justice. Trump’s voter fraud rhetoric did significant damage to his future presidential bids, but his assertiveness in collecting donations even after being banned from most social media outlets suggests that he can soon start narrative-building campaigns to lure voters into his campaign once again. But Biden’s decision for running for reelection may be a crucial blow for Republicans who already assumed a win for 2024 with a new presidential nominee. Kamala Harris, for instance, has an approval rating well below Biden, and with little time for campaigning for presidential elections, she had much distance to travel before reaching the White House, which makes Republicans worry about not seeing a new candidate in the next election. [caption id="attachment_10921" align="aligncenter" width="585"] During his Thanksgiving message, Donald Trump has suggested to run for Presidency again, which makes Biden Vs. Trump contest a reality once again.[/caption] Trump is Focusing on the Swing States Three Years Ahead of 2024 Elections Despite the fact that Biden outclassed Trump by almost seven million votes nationwide to win the most presidential votes in the US electoral history, Trump would have tied the electoral college had he won only 43,000 more votes in three swing states. And the Trump campaign realizes this problem very well. Currently, the former president is launching an all-out assault in five swing states that contributed 73 electoral votes to Biden, all by less than a three percent margin. These states include Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia. The latest polls suggest that Trump can win all of them in 2024. Trump’s shadow campaign recently conducted Trump vs. Biden polls in all of these states, and the results suggest the same. He led Biden by eight percentage points in Arizona, three points in Georgia, twelve points in Michigan, ten points in Wisconsin, and six points in Pennsylvania. So, all in all, he would need to continue and build on a more passionate campaign in some swing states in order to put cracks in Democrats’ presidential hopes. And his efforts to win the White House again are likely to gear up in December when he is expected

to hold the biggest fundraiser with top Republican donors buckling up to donate to him once again. [caption id="attachment_10922" align="aligncenter" width="585"] Florida's governor Ron DeSantis will one of the biggest challengers to Donald Trump in 2024. However, Trump is expected to have an easy go due to the pervasive support from Republicans.[/caption] Final Thoughts Republicans have many big names coming into the presidential race of 2024. Of them, Ron DeSantis is the top-notch contender, which even Trump has acknowledged. With his “Turnkey operation” going in full flow, Trump is likely to announce his reelection bid after the midterm elections if Republicans somehow manage to win at least one chamber of Congress. While Republicans are hoping to get both of them, they are likely to make a net gain in the House, especially on the seats that become the victim of Democratic infighting recently on the social spending and infrastructure bill saga.

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arpov-blog-blog · 1 month

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..."Trump blinked this morning, taking a cowardly path on a disastrous issue for him and the Rs. “Leaving it to the states” is absurd place, for he is still responsible for ending Roe, for stripping the rights and freedoms away from the women of America, for unleashing the escalating assault on reproductive freedom across the country, for sanctioning and green lighting the most extreme abortion bans in the country; and now his allies on the right are going to feel betrayed by him. It is a squirming, “I got no place else to go” position, one that confirms how much trouble MAGA is in right now.

Let’s be very clear that “leaving it to the states” is a more extreme position than a 15 week ban for it sanctions and accepts the most extreme state bans as legitimate without providing an alternative. As Trump is about to find out there is no safe place for Rs on abortion other than a full retreat and a restoration of a woman’s right to choose.

All this reinforces what a political disaster MAGA has become, how the extremism that Trump has unleashed has made his party unmanagable, unpopular, and a stone cold electoral loser. It remains today, as I like to say, the ugliest political thing we’ve ever seen, and despite his tortured efforts there isn’t any way to put lipstick on this MAGA pig. Today what we saw from Trump wasn’t leadership but cowardice and weakness, for even he has begun to realize how hard it is going to be for him to win with what he has wrought. He’s the captain of a sinking ship.

I also want to give a big shout out to the Hopium community this morning. For while we have worked hard in many elections together over the past year, our biggest and most consequential investment of time and money was in Virginia last fall. Youngkin had put the 15 week abortion ban on the ballot there, and this community understood the stakes and raised hundreds of thousands of dollars and logged incredible amounts of volunteer time. On Election Day we did not just kept the state senate there, but we also flipped the Virginia Assembly - something few thought was possible. In the days that followed the Assembly Rs who lost blamed Youngkin and his 15 week ban for their defeat, and a decisive blow was delivered to that fantasy of an escape hatch for the Rs on abortion. There is little question that our big win there helped lead to Trump’s cowardly retreat today, and this ridiculous place of “leaving it to the states” which throws tens of millions of women and their families overboard and green lights the most extreme laws America has seen in generations.

18 Polls Have Biden Up/Other 2024 Election Notes - As I wrote on Saturday, what the polls show right now is Biden and the Dems gaining a bit in what is a close, competitive election. 18 recent national polls have Biden leading: (via 538):

51-49 Emerson (likely voters, new)

48-45 McLaughlin (likely voters, new)

52-48 Marquette

47-46 Data For Progress

50-48 NPR/Marist

42-40 Big Village

44-42 Morning Consult

48-45 Quinnipiac

44-43 Noble Predictive

44-43 Economist/YouGov (March 19)

47-45 FAU/Mainstreet

44-43 Morning Consult (March 11)

46-45 Public Policy Research

50-48 Ipsos/Reuters

45-44 Civiqs

47-44 Kaiser Family Foundation

51-49 Emerson

43-42 TIPP

Note that we are starting to see Biden do better and Trump do worse in polls which survey likely voters - people who are paying closer attention. This is consistent with Trump’s underperformance in the GOP primary polls, for when people had to make up their mind earlier this year and actually vote he performed worse than public polling - a more informed electorate is a worse electorate for Trump. This is a big problem for him as the entire electorate is about to become far more informed about him, his extremism, his criminality, his historical awfulness; and it suggests, as we’ve believed would happen, that as we get deeper into the general election things will get better for us (something that appears to be already happening).

A note on the battleground states. We have far less polling in the battlegrounds than nationally, and many of the polls we have are low sample, low quality polls. So let’s take it a little easy on jumping to big conclusions about the states. Yes some have Trump ahead, but there is polling from the last month with Biden ahead too:

MI - 42%-39% Bullfinch Group (new)

PA - 50%-45% Susquehanna

WI - 46%-45% Morning Consult/Bloomberg

And remember Trump was just +1 in GA in the WSJ poll, and only +3 in NC in Marist.

We should be encouraged by what we are seeing right now. We’ve gained a few points in recent weeks, Senate polling remains very solid, we have a cash/organization advantage, the economy is booming, Joe Biden is a good President and they have Trump. We have a long way to go folks but 7 months out I would much rather be us than them."

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bllsbailey · 1 month

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NEW: Latest Fox Poll Shows Biggest Lead Ever For...

The latest Fox News national survey shows former President Donald Trump pushing out to his largest general election lead in the history of the polling series -- in any of the three cycles in which Trump has run. His advantage over incumbent President Joe Biden sits at five percentage points in this data set, both in the head-to-head matchup (Trump hits 50 percent on this question) and the 'crowded field' scenario. For what it's worth, Trump's lead in a hypothetical battle against Vice President Kamala Harris is slightly larger, at six percentage points.

Here are the top line outcomes from Fox's fresh numbers:

As the above tweet notes -- 'below the fold' -- Fox's pollster projected an eight-point Biden popular vote victory in 2020. The actual margin ended up being 4.5 points. Trump is now up by five, boosted by a double-digit advantage among independents. By 30 points, voters tell Fox's pollster that they're worse off financially than they were four years ago, compared to better off. The 'worse off' contingent includes majorities of white, black and hispanic voters. Biden is personally less popular on favorability (-21) than Trump is (-9) right now, too. A pair of other nationwide polls also show Trump in the lead over Biden, including the Daily Mail (Trump +4) and Forbes (Trump +3). A Quinnipiac survey, however, shows Biden leading Trump by three points nationally, despite dreadful job approval ratings for the sitting president:

If Biden is going to win re-election, he will likely need many voters to choose him over Trump despite their deep dissatisfaction with his job performance. How does Fox have Trump up five, while the Q-poll has Biden up three? The former poll has independents breaking decisively for Trump, with women almost evenly split; the latter poll has Biden ahead with independents and crushing Trump among women. That would go a long way in explaining the resulting eight-point gap. Finally on the 2024 election front, I'll leave you with this answer from my wide-ranging interview with former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, whom I asked about a hypothetical running mate invitation from Trump:

As I also noted, "I know a lot of the conventional wisdom about Trump’s VP pick suggests that it’ll be a woman and/or person of color. But there’s a pretty strong case for Pompeo, [in my opinion]: He’s a former Secretary of State, CIA Chief, and Congressman. He’s a veteran and a West Point grad. He’s a serious, non-volatile figure with deep experience…who’s undeniably be ready to be president, if needed. He’s seemingly maintained a good relationship with Trump. He’s relatively young at 60. This wouldn’t be a sizzle pick, but it might be a very solid one." Pompeo would bring credibility, experience, preparedness and reassuring stability to the ticket. He merits serious consideration.

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