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[jbuffyangel]

Hey Jen, you trully are a rare gem for any fandom worthy to have you! Beyond happy you're part of the Olicity fandom! Only one thing I would like you to address, esp given your knowledge of TV and how the business works. So, what is your view on ratings for Arrow Season 5? The decline in ratings goes ofc accross shows and channels as a general trend nowadays. But specifically how do you feel about Arrow ratings this year? TY!

What a sweet thing to say. I am but one among many, but you are so incredibly kind. Thank you. Hope you don’t mind that I’m publishing this ask because I always like ratings questions. I think they are fun. Yes. I am weird. I don’t know if it’s knowledge. It’s more a weird obsession combined with some (hopefully) educated guesses. (Some of this will be a repeat for those who’ve read my thoughts on ratings before).

Stumbled on this article today. Vulture always takes a look at returning/aging dramas and writes an article on rating trends every year. It’s a good read. The take away is it’s been a rough year for everyone. Most returning/aging dramas saw a significant drop in their live ratings. This was The CW:

31% drop is… well… ouch. 

I agree with Vulture. I don’t know a network executive that would be happy with any of these drops because they like money. Loss of revenue is not good. Networks ain’t never gonna be a fan of that. A live ratings decrease = a loss of ad based revenue. 

But am I worried about Arrow? NOPE. The single most important question any fan of a television show that airs on The CW should ask is…

How in sweet holy heaven does The CW make money?

This article just published ratings losses, so everything looks equal across the board. However, if you compare ratings for The CW versus the Big Four (NBC, CBS, ABC and Fox) they aren’t even in the same ballpark. This is David versus Goliath. So, if television is all about live ratings - how does The CW even freaking exist? They are trounced on a nightly basis by all the other networks. I mean look at these numbers of the Top 10. My kingdom for a CW show to get these kind of numbers. lol

The answer is simple - The CW has a differentbusiness model than the Big Four. IT ALWAYS HAS. Otherwise it couldn’t compete.The CW business structure is not based on live ratings. That is not how thesetelevision shows make the majority of their money. Coke and McDonalds willalways want to air commercials on Greys Anatomy versus Arrow because it hastriple the freaking audience. They might have to pay more for Greys than Arrow,but ya know, it’s Coke so they can afford it. 

I’m not saying The CW doesn’t have a target market that appeals to advertisers. They do. Live ratings do matter to some degree, but that degree is 5% of Arrow’s actual value. Or at least that’s the number Stephen Amell offered at HVFF Chicago. Stephen confirmed what I’ve always believed about Arrow and The CW and what I’ve been writing about for years.

A 30% drop in the 5% overall value of a product is nothing to get overly worked up about. I’m sorry folks. It’s just not. A network is always going to want more money. They want Arrow to have a 0.9 and 2.5 million viewers every year until it goes off air. They aren’t running a charity here. 

The CW doesn’t want a 30% drop, but they aren’t canceling Arrow because of it. Especially if Arrow has remained profitable in other areas.

So, how does The CW make money? Well… some of this is research and some of this is guessing, but I think their business structure is primarily focused on two things 1) International sales 2) Streaming services 

I have nothing on the international sales, other than to guess that CW shows are popular overseas and that’s one way the network makes some money on the front end. For me, this really comes down to streaming. The CW demographic watches TV differently. I think the network came to that realization sooner than the Big Four simply because they had to in order to make money. The Big Four are catching on though too. 

So, streaming applications like the CW app or Netflix are extemely important. This is an informative article about the deal The CW made with Netflix and the collapse of their other agreement with Hulu.  Keep in mind that Netflix now gets CW shows eight days after the season is complete. So, given the target demographic (and the lack of commercials on Netflix) it would not surprise me if some of the 30% drop is attributed to viewers simply waiting until full seasons of The Flash or Arrow come out so they can binge it. The concern what this eight day deal would do to live ratings is highlighted in the article. 

Five year shows typically do not see growth, especially on The CW. The more realistic goal I believe for returning series 5+ years is to remain flat or bleed off slowly as a series ages. Sure, out of the four DC shows Arrow had the lowest ratings this year. It is also the oldest out of the four. I do think audiences can wain over time. 

However, if this is merely a transfer of audience, and not a loss of audience, then it could be a net wash overall. Here’s the kicker - Netflix does not publish any ratings information. They publish what their most popular shows are, but that is not the same thing. (Btw Arrow is always on their popular show lists). 

Here’s the other thing - Arrow’s ratings are nowhere near the red zone for The CW even with a 30% drop. It’s important to note that there are plenty of shows on the CW who have ratings far lower than Arrow and were renewed. We need to be asking ourselves why? WHY does The CW renew most of their returning series?

First - low ratings for The CW versus low ratings for the Big Four are not the same thing. I don’t know the ratio for ratings & profitability for the CW, but there’s plenty of shows I thought were tanking that limped their way to second, third and even fourth seasons.

I think the answer again is streaming services. What Netflix is interested in is completed series. They want a show they can package from start to finish so the 18-34 demo can binge it. The networks want people to watch previous seasons and then shift to the currently airing season. This is why I believe shows like The Vampire Diaries, The Originals, Reign and Beauty and the Beast all received renewals when their live ratings were not in tip top shape. The CW wants completed series they can package and ship off to Netflix. This is how they make their money on the back end.

This is actually one of the things I like best about The CW. If a series has a reasonably decent ratings the first season (and especially if there is a social media response) then we stand a good chance of getting another season. The CW allows series to find their footing and come to a conclusion because of their business model. The Big Four are still focused on live ratings numbers because, despite the shift in thinking, I believe most of their profitability is generated from those ad buys. I am always far more nervous for one of my low rated shows if it airs on CBS, NBC, ABC and Fox than I am if it airs on The CW.

That’s not to say a show is not in risk of cancellation on The CW. If you have low ratings in the first season, and by low I mean low for The CW, then no - you probably aren’t not coming back for a round 2. (Here’s looking at you Frequency). But every television show is different. So it all depends.

Yes, Arrow took a 30% hit. It is still the #4 show on the network. Not too shabby after five years and, just looking at the shows that come before it, I have to believe it’s cheaper to produce based on the CGI budget ALONE.

I know people want to point to the live ratings as evidence that the plotlines they are unhappy with were indeed terrible decisions. And sure… maybe it means that, but I don’t know how we quantify that. Ratings don’t tell us why people watch. Nor do I need ratings to support my opinions on storylines either way. If I don’t like something - I don’t like it. If I do… well… I do. Whether or not the Nielson company shows the rest of the viewing audience agreeing with me doesn’t really sway me either way. I have adored series that Nielson couldn’t find with two flashlights and a map and couldn’t stand series that were in the Top 10 every week. TV is subjective like any other art form. 

And I cannot emphasize enough that the Nielson rating system is absolutely and unequivocally archaic. It needs to change, like yesterday. When that happens who knows?  

Are the ratings evidence regarding poorly received or successful storylines? Maybe? Not sure on that piece. There’s a lot of factors that go into Nielson ratings too. I think what people are hoping for is the decrease in live ratings will mean Olicity won’t break up again or be distant or have storylines like Baby Mama. That the writers will use the numbers to make plotline decisions.

Ummm… yeah I don’t know guys. I really don’t. Arrow knew going into the second season Oliver would choose Felicity. They knew going into the third season Olicity would leave town together. Arrow knew going into the fourth season they were going to break Olicity up. Ratings didn’t break Olicity up (or save them from it) anymore than it will get them back together. Arrow knew going into the fifth season that Olicity will get back together. Ratings didn’t speed up that conclusion any sooner because it was the year long arc.

I’m not sure how much ratings effect actual storytelling decisions. To be honest, I don’t think they impact the current season all that much simply because Arrow is filming so far in advance. Once they pick a road my friends they have to go down it. This is like the rudder on the Titanic. It doesn’t corner worth a damn. For better or for worse.

How will this impact Season 6? Err… not sure. I don’t want to completely discount the live ratings because it’s numbers. It’s some math the network and EPs can use gauge some of the audience’s response. They are trying to sell a product here. Audience response does matter. It’s just… I don’t think the live ratings have the level of impact we think they do. There’s a whole bunch of numbers we don’t have access to. 5% is not going to determine storylines in their entirety. There’s many other factors at play and some of them are simply writing choices.

Arrow is going to do what Arrow is going to do. There will be storylines I love. There will be storylines I hate. That’s just Arrow for me. Olicity will always face drama because it’s a dramatic television show. Ratings aren’t going to guarantee some perfect season in which we get everything we want. Ratings aren’t going to stop mistakes from happening. That’s not how writing works. There is no perfect season of Arrow for me. Even when its numbers were sky high I can point to three or four things I didn’t enjoy. If Olicity stays together it’s because that’s where the writers determine they want the story to go and remain. Which, just so we’re clear, is where I think the story is headed. 

If this was all about live ratings well then the DC shows should just do crossovers all the damn time because that’s when everyone gets a major bump. But then that would get old and they’d need to come up with something new. Balancing what people love about the show while infusing it with new aspects to keep it interesting is one of the more difficult things writers have to do. Every season it’s done to varying levels of success.

But I was never worried about Arrow’s ratings this year. I was always confident we’d get a Season 6. Not to count my chickens, but I’m confident we’ll get a Season 7 because that’s how long the network has Stephen Amell signed for. Mostly, I’m just kicking back and watching the show. Enjoying what I enjoy and disliking what I dislike. Like every other season. :) And very much looking forward to next season.

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