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plusorminuscongress · 4 years

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New story in Politics from Time: ‘We’re Pawns In This Game.’ Mayors Worry Trump’s Operation Legend Is More About Politics Than Law Enforcement

When President Donald Trump and Attorney General William Barr talk about sending more federal agents to U.S. cities to help stop violent crime, they use dire terms.

There has been “a shocking explosion of shootings, killings, murders, and heinous crimes of violence,” Trump said at the White House on July 22, referring to Operation Legend, the new Justice Department program to provide federal resources to cities struggling with rising violent crime rates. “This bloodshed must end. This bloodshed will end.”

The solution, Trump says, is for the federal government to “surge” several hundred agents to various American cities from federal agencies including the FBI, U.S. Marshals Service, Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms (ATF), the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) and the Department of Homeland Security.

“Our goal is to help save lives,” Barr said at the same event.

But in the month since Operation Legend was launched on July 8 — beginning in Kansas City, Mo., and subsequently expanding to seven other cities — mayors in four of the eight cities on the list say the program’s rollout has been chaotic, hampered by politics and had little impact so far on the ground. “If one were to ask this mayor when this program kicked off if this has been a game changer in a violent year, I think it’s fairly clear the answer’s ‘no’,” says Quinton Lucas, the mayor of Kansas City.

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As he seeks re-election as a “law-and-order” candidate, Trump has positioned Operation Legend as a key part of his tough-on-crime stance in the final months of his campaign, regularly noting that the cities seeing an uptick in violent crime are led by Democrats. He has invoked Operation Legend alongside the recent crackdown on protests by federal officers in Portland, Ore., despite the fact that the deployment of federal forces in that city were unrelated to the new program, to paint a broad picture of muscular displays of federal authority.

It’s not unusual for federal agents to be working alongside local police in U.S. cities. DEA agents routinely work on drug trafficking cases, for instance, and ATF agents work on gun cases. But the disconnect between the way the President and Attorney General talk about this new program and what some mayors are seeing on the ground has left them confused and skeptical about whether Operation Legend is designed to help their cities, or to help Trump get re-elected.

“This seems to be at best a confusion and conflation of different federal activities by the President, and it’s resulting in confusion for the public and for mayors,” says Tim Keller, the mayor of Albuquerque, NM. “At worst, it’s just part of his political agenda, which he has stated, which is to basically make progressive Democrat-led cities look violent.”

The operation is named after LeGend Taliferro, a four-year-old boy who was shot and killed in Kansas City at the end of June. Following discussions between U.S. attorneys in those areas and the Department of Justice in Washington, D.C., it expanded to include seven other cities: Chicago, Albuquerque, Cleveland, Detroit, Milwaukee, Memphis and St. Louis. The decision to add each city was signed off on by Barr himself, according to two U.S. attorneys TIME spoke with who have facilitated Operation Legend’s expansion to cities in their districts.

According to Trump, all the cities currently in the program are on board. “We haven’t met with resistance, I have to be honest with you,” Trump said in response to a question from TIME about Operation Legend at an August 3 press briefing. “We’re only looking to help.”

But there has been uneven coordination between the U.S. attorneys and mayors in cities on the DOJ’s list, leaving some leaders uneasy.

Some mayors are satisfied with how the DOJ is working with local enforcement. Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot was initially dubious as to how federal forces would help in Chicago, particularly after witnessing federal officers crack down on protesters in Portland. A former federal prosecutor, Lightfoot condemned the paramilitary tactics in Portland and advised the federal agents deploying to Chicago to plug into existing policing infrastructure to help fight the city’s crime wave. There have been 430 recorded homicides in Chicago through July, which represents a 51% increase over the same period last year.

Lightfoot now tells TIME it gives her “confidence” in the program that the Administration is working through U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Illinois John Lausch, whom she calls a friend. Lausch, for his part, says that bringing federal agents in to work closely with the Chicago Police Department “provides critical help to help us to make sure that we are focusing on the right areas inside the city of Chicago.” Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett also says he has been in close coordination with his U.S. attorney and local law enforcement about the integration of federal resources into his city.

Others, however, say the rollout has been confusing, and that’s caused concern among residents. Lucas in Kansas City says he was blindsided by the announcement that the city would be part of the program. He says the U.S. attorney gave him a call a couple days prior mentioning vaguely that there was “a plan afoot,” but that he learned the specifics after seeing the announcement about Operation Legend on Twitter. By the time the program was announced, Kansas City had reached 100 homicides this year, a 40% increase over last year.

In Albuquerque, Keller says he got a “courtesy phone call” less than 24 hours in advance of the DOJ announcement, and that it was unusual how little input or insight he had into the matter. Albuquerque, on pace to break its 2019 record for homicides in the city, was added to the Operation Legend list on July 22, but Keller says so far he has not seen any new federal agents come to the city as part of the program.

That doesn’t mean Albuquerque residents aren’t riled up about it, especially after seeing federal agents discharge pepper spray and shoot rubber bullets at protesters on the streets of Portland. Hundreds of Albuquerque residents have marched to protest Operation Legend’s expansion to their city. Kansas City has also seen protests over the program. “We’ve been having protests about an operation that, to our knowledge, is neither here nor coming here,” Keller says.

In Milwaukee, Barrett has also had to talk to anxious residents in his city about the differences between Operation Legend and what happened in Portland. “The investigators that are coming are not patrol operations. They’re not troops. And when we made that clear, I think that’s what calmed people down,” he says. “This is not what President Trump loved so much. And the more he loved it, the harder it was for us to get the information out.”

The way it was designed to function, Operation Legend would be adding resources to existing structures and joint task forces in American cities, U.S. attorneys and mayors say, not contributing to the apocalyptic vision of militarized streets and rogue federal agents that some Americans fear after Portland and the June scene at Lafayette Square outside the White House. “In all of these cities, the pre-existing framework is there in the form of a federal task force,” says Justin Herdman, U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Ohio. The new agents assigned to a city under Operation Legend “can plug right in to the work that’s being done,” he says.

That’s what is happening now in Chicago, says Lightfoot. The Operation Legend agents are sliding into “existing infrastructure of FBI, DEA, and ATF that’s already been on the ground here probably 60-plus years, maybe longer,” she says. But, she adds, despite “a lot of rhetoric and hype,” the agents just arrived last week, so “the jury’s out as to whether or not they’re actually going to be helpful.”

Barrett is hoping for the best. Milwaukee had to cut 60 police officers from its budget last year, while homicides are up this year 85%. “We welcome those resources to help our local law enforcement,” he says. But, he adds, Trump’s involvement made implementation of the program in Milwaukee “immensely more complicated,” and he says he’s going to stay vigilant. “I’m going to be watching it,” he says. “I do not want a federal takeover. I do not want what happened in Portland to happen here.”

In Albuquerque, Keller says he has “seen literally nothing other than talk.” And in Kansas City, Lucas is reserving judgment about whether Operation Legend will end up being anything particularly unique at all. “I’m not sure it will be either the game changer that the President was describing, or the beginning of the parade of horribles that you’ve heard it be criticized as on the other side of things,” he says.

That’s why Lucas thinks the President’s messaging about Operation Legend and his muddling of the law enforcement operation with federal agents’ crackdowns on protests in Portland and Washington, D.C. is the ultimate point. “It’s a culture war,” he says. “It’s about cities and cities being out of control and Trump’s going to have something that helps, whether it helps or not. And we’re pawns in this game.”

—With reporting by W.J. Hennigan/Chicago

By Tessa Berenson on August 13, 2020 at 02:53PM

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ladystylestores · 4 years

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George Floyd: New York and Washington see security ease

Image copyright Getty Images

Image caption National Guardsmen watch on as a protester demonstrates in Washington DC

Security measures in the US have been lifted as unrest over the death in police custody of African-American George Floyd eases.

New York ended its nearly week-long curfew and President Donald Trump said he was ordering the National Guard to start withdrawing from Washington DC.

The unrest has largely been replaced by largely peaceful worldwide protests against racism and police brutality.

Black Lives Matter protests continued on Sunday in European nations.

George Floyd died in police custody in Minneapolis on 25 May. Video showed him pinned to the floor, with a white police officer kneeling on his neck for almost nine minutes.

Officer Derek Chauvin has been dismissed and charged with murder. Three other officers who were at the scene have also been sacked and charged with aiding and abetting.

Mr Floyd’s funeral is scheduled for Tuesday in Houston, his home city before he moved to Minneapolis.

US Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden is due to travel to Texas on Monday to meet Mr Floyd’s family ahead of the service and offer his condolences, two senior aides told Reuters news agency. He is not expected to attend the funeral.

Mr Biden also took to Twitter on Sunday to hit out at Mr Trump’s handling of the protests, saying he had “callously used his [words as a president] to incite violence, stoke the flames of hatred and division, and drive us further apart”.

Hours earlier, President Trump had tweeted that the National Guard could start withdrawing from the capital as “everything is under perfect control”.

Media playback is unsupported on your device

Media caption“Keep pushing”: Washington DC protesters on keeping the momentum going

“They will be going home, but can quickly return, if needed. Far fewer protesters showed up last night than anticipated!” he said.

The National Guard is the reserve military force that can be called on by the US president or state governors to intervene in domestic emergencies.

Washington had seen angry protests outside the White House, particularly last Monday when demonstrators were cleared for Mr Trump to walk to a nearby church.

Saturday’s massive protest in the capital was peaceful.

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio tweeted: “We are lifting the curfew, effective immediately. Yesterday and last night we saw the very best of our city.”

The end of the curfew comes a day before New York enters the first phase of its plan to reopen after more than two months of lockdown due to the coronavirus outbreak.

Image copyright Reuters

Image caption New York City police approach people out after the 20:00 curfew on Friday

“Tomorrow we take the first big step to restart. Keep staying safe. Keep looking out for each other,” Mr de Blasio said.

New York has seen its fair share of violence in the past week, with looting of luxury stores in Manhattan, scores of arrests and the burning of dozens of police cars.

There were also accusations against the police, including the beating of protesters. One patrol car was also driven into a crowd of protesters, sparking a row between politicians.

Many major US cities that saw unrest have now lifted curfews, including San Francisco and Los Angeles, although a few protests have still led to clashes.

Where are protests continuing now?

Sunday has seen more demonstrations taking place across Europe under the banner of Black Lives Matter.

In Madrid, thousands of people marched carrying anti-racism placards and wearing masks to observe coronavirus measures, although images showed social distancing was not being followed.

Image copyright Getty Images

Image caption A huge protest was held in Madrid on Sunday

Outside the US embassy in Madrid, protesters shouted “I can’t breathe”, echoing Mr Floyd’s last words. Others took a knee to observe the mark of protest that originated in the US against police brutality and racism.

Similar protests were held in Rome, where protesters fell silent for roughly the same time that George Floyd was pinned down.

There have also been events in Brussels, Copenhagen and in several places in the UK.

Protesters in Bristol tore down a statue of Edward Colston, a prominent 17th Century slave trader.

What happened on Saturday?

Huge peaceful rallies took place across the US.

Tens of thousands of people gathered in Washington DC, in the city’s largest protest so far, many of them at the newly renamed Black Lives Matter Plaza outside Lafayette Park.

There were also massive protests in San Francisco, Chicago and Los Angeles.

Media playback is unsupported on your device

Media captionThe US’s history of racial inequality has paved the way for modern day police brutality

There was even a protest in the small, east Texas town of Vidor, once infamous as a Ku Klux Klan stronghold.

Dozens of white and black protesters carrying Black Lives Matter banners rallied in a place previously known as a “sundown town” because blacks did not venture out after dark.

Though the vast majority of protests were peaceful, both Portland and Seattle saw unrest on Saturday night, with projectiles thrown and arrests made.

Meanwhile, people paid their respects to Mr Floyd in North Carolina, where he was born, with a memorial service held.

More on George Floyd’s death

US protests timeline

25 May 2020

Image caption Tributes to George Floyd at a makeshift memorial Image copyright by Getty Images

George Floyd dies after being arrested by police outside a shop in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Footage shows a white officer, Derek Chauvin, kneeling on Mr Floyd’s neck for several minutes while he is pinned to the floor. Mr Floyd is heard repeatedly saying “I can’t breathe”. He is pronounced dead later in hospital.

26 May

Image caption Demonstrators in Minneapolis Image copyright by AFP

Four officers involved in the arrest of George Floyd are fired. Protests begin as the video of the arrest is shared widely on social media. Hundreds of demonstrators take to the streets of Minneapolis and vandalise police cars and the police station with graffiti.

27 May

Image caption Protesters lie on the streets in Portland, Oregon Image copyright by Reuters

Protests spread to other cities including Memphis and Los Angeles. In some places, like Portland, Oregon, protesters lie in the road, chanting “I can’t breathe”. Demonstrators again gather around the police station in Minneapolis where the officers involved in George Floyd’s arrest were based and set fire to it. The building is evacuated and police retreat.

28 May

Image caption President Trump tweets about the unrest Image copyright by Reuters

President Trump blames the violence on a lack of leadership in Minneapolis and threatens to send in the National Guard in a tweet. He follows it up in a second tweet with a warning “when the looting starts, the shooting starts”. The second tweet is hidden by Twitter for “glorifying violence”.

29 May

Image caption Members of a CNN crew are arrested at a protest Image copyright by Reuters

A CNN reporter, Omar Jimenez, is arrested while covering the Minneapolis protest. Mr Jimenez was reporting live when police officers handcuffed him. A few minutes later several of his colleagues are also arrested. They are all later released once they are confirmed to be members of the media.

Derek Chauvin charged with murder

Image caption Former Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin after being charged over the death of George Floyd Image copyright by Getty Images

Former Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin, 44, is charged with murder and manslaughter. The charges carry a combined maximum 35-year sentence.

31 May

Image caption Demonstrators set fire to rubbish in New York Image copyright by Reuters

Violence spreads across the US on the sixth night of protests. A total of at least five people are reported killed in protests from Indianapolis to Chicago. More than 75 cities have seen protests. At least 4,400 people have been arrested. Curfews are imposed across the US to try to stem the unrest.

1 June

Image caption Trump posing with a Bible outside a boarded-up church Image copyright by EPA

President Trump threatens to send in the military to quell growing civil unrest. He says if cities and states fail to control the protests and “defend their residents” he will deploy the army and “quickly solve the problem for them”. Mr Trump poses in front of a damaged church shortly after police used tear gas to disperse peaceful protesters nearby.

2 June

Image caption George Floyd’s family joined protesters in Houston Image copyright by Getty

Tens of thousands of protesters again take to the streets. One of the biggest protests is in George Floyd’s hometown of Houston, Texas. Many defy curfews in several cities, but the demonstrations are largely peaceful.

4 June

Image caption Mourners gather to remember George Floyd Image copyright by Getty

A memorial service for George Floyd is held in Minneapolis. Those gathered in tribute stand in silence for eight minutes, 46 seconds, the amount of time Mr Floyd is alleged to have been on the ground under arrest. Hundreds attended the service, which heard a eulogy from civil rights activist Rev Al Sharpton.

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independentaussie · 4 years

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Why I believe Trump will win in November

Just three says before the 2016 US election I told a fellow ALP member, "I believe Trump will win." He looked at me incredulously. "What about the polls?" I shrugged and smiled. "What about the tape of him bragging about grabbing them by the pussy?" "It won't matter," I replied. He shook his head. "You're serious aren't you?" "Absolutely." "OK then, why do you believe Trump will win when all the experts say that it's a foregone conclusion?" I couldn't put my finger on it. I sensed an anger and a mood for change. There was a definite antipathy towards Democrats by many Progressives. This was partly borne out of the shafting of Bernie Sanders, but something deeper was at play. I shrugged again. "Just a feeling, " and left it at that.

I turned out to be correct

To be honest I was neither thrilled nor excited about it. To say I believe Trump will win does not make me a supporter. At the time I pretty much subscribed to Julian Assange's view of the choice presented to the American people. I figured though, that maybe the DNC would take a long hard look at themselves. Hopefully they would retool and hit 2020 with an inspring leader, some clear vision and policies that would capture the electorate's imagination. They did, after all, produce JFK. Instead, the DNC and its vast array of supporters have spent four years partaking in the most hilarious dummy spit in political memory. Well, it used to be hilarious. I'm not so sure now. All the while, Trump has played the media like a fiddle. Directing them down blind alleys, making them walk back statements and generally provoking them into hyperbolic outrage. He's either been very lucky or he is a first class troll. If you believe mainstream media, Trump's presidency has been a shambles. Yet, prior to the coronavirus pandemic, the economy was booming and the United States had managed not to involve itself in another unneccesary war. That wasn't too shabby. In ordinary circumstances you would imagine reelection would be a piece of cake. These are no ordinary times. Even before Covid 19, Trump was faced with an extraordinary set of events. From day one, the legitimacy of his presidency was called into question by the inference that he was a Russian puppet. Despite constant headlines claiming that the walls were closing in on him, Trump ploughed on, implementing those parts of his policies that seemed possible. The Mueller probe was meant to finish him but found no collusion. Then he was impeached in a show house trial without a crime being alleged. No sooner had that circus been despatched by the Senate then Covid 19 arrived on his doorstep. Throughout his Presidencey, Trump has had to cope with negative press, wild unsubstantiated accusations and constant misrepresentation. Throughout it all, his base has stuck fat. Rightly or wrongly they believe he's "their guy." The only time he has been in danger of losing his base was when Julian Assange was arrested. For reasons best known to themselves neither the DNC (except Tulsi Gabbard) or the media have held Trump to account on this. With all the drama and intrigue there is reason to suggest that Trump is mortally wounded and limping to the election. I don't think so.

Here are the reasons I believe Trump will win in November

Joe Biden Seriously, Biden has multiple credibility problems. The most obvious is his seeming dementia. He's obvious vulnerability is detailed in this article here by left leaning independent journalist Caitlin Johnstone. Biden has other problems. These include the rape allegations levelled at him by Tara Reade, his apparent general creepiness (which is sure to be used in republican attack ads) and the allegations of corriuption swirling around him and his son, Hunter. No amount of protective cover being run by MSM can prevent at least some of the mud sticking. Biden's chief asset appears to be he was Obama's VP. Aside from that he offers nothing and his voting record suggests that he is the classic virtual signalling Democrat that caused Trump's rise in the first place. Trump has already highlighted Biden's record over 43 years with this Tweet. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1268167411230007300 We can argue all day about the merits of Trump's tweet but you can expect this line to continue right up until November. The Democrats are a divided party. In politics there is an old saying that disunity is death. There is a chasm within the Democrats that seperates the "progressive" left run by AOC and the more pragmatic wing of the party headed by Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer. They hate each other's guts. Don't expect this to change any time soon. The Republicans on the other hand, with the odd outlier (Mitt Romney) appear united and focussed. Rioting and looting in Democrat Cities and States Peaceful protests are a necessary and valid function of the political process. Rioting and looting are not. It is not necessarily the fault of State Governors and city mayors that a riot breaks out. How they respond determines largely how they are perceived by the vast majority of their own citizens. You can bet your bottom dollar that a store owner who has had his store broken into and his livelihood destroyed is looking for answers. Releasing arrested looters back onto the street within hours isn't going to win many friends among that sector. Nor is allowing rioting to continue unchecked in some cities. Ordinary people don't spend their lives on Twitter. They're too busy making a living. They don't need CNN to tell them what's happening . They can see and feel it. Time and again history has demonstrated that riots generally provoke a move to the political right. People want to feel safe. They want to earn a living without fear. They vote for law and order. Meanwhile, there are Democrat states and towns talking about defunding the police. How do you think that's going to work out when people cast their vote? List of cities in the headlines with major riot activity Minneapolis - Mayor Jacob Frey (Democrat) Cincinnati - Mayor John Cranley (Democrat) Atlanta - Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (Democrat) Columbus Mayor Andrew Ginther (Democrat) Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf (Democrat) San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (Democrat) Seattle Mayor Jenny Durkan (Democrat) Bakersfielsd Mayor Karen Goh (Republican) Denver Mayor Michael Hancock (Democrat) New York City Mayor Bill De Blassio (Democrat) Washington DC Mayor Muriel Bowser (Democrat) Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti (Democrat) Phoenix Mayor Kate Galllego (Democrat) Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson (Democrat) Louisville Mayor Greg Fischer (Democrat) Memphis Mayor Jim Strickland (Democrat) Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner (Democrat) Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney (Democrat) Fort Wayne Mayor Tom Henry (Democrat) Saint Paul Mayor Melvin Carter (Democrat) Trump has offered most of these mayors the National Guard. Many have refused. How is that going to work out do you think? Former Oakland Raiders Super Bowl star and Republican candidate for Congress Burgess Owens has no doubt that Democrats are starting to panic and the riots will cause immense damage to the DNC base.

Fisa Declassification is Ultimately Why I Believe Trump Will Win In November.

When the impeachment push foundered in the Senate, I wrote an article When you come at the King fully expecting that a full declassification of the FISA applications would be made in days. I was wrong. Instead, what we have seen is a gradual constant drip of declassified information that suggests that the Obama administration knowingly and willfully targeted an opposition candidate for intelligence surveillance without due cause. Respected independent journalist Glen Greenwald who could never be described as a Trump fan lays out what we know so far here. https://youtu.be/xB26jj0jrjc I expect the constant drip of information to continue and with each revelation, the truth will become harder to suppress. None of this makes me a Trump supporter. I simply see the writing on the wall. I suspect many in mainstream media see it also. They just don't want it to happen and are doing everything they can to prevent it. That isn't their role. It is the people's role to decide. They will in November. This piece is not meant to be an endorsement of Donald Trump. It is an analysis of the situation and an acknowledgement that the Democrats are a shambolic institution. I sincerely hope that major change occurs within the Democratic Party if and when they are defeated. I also pine for an idependent media focussed on reporting facts and policy differences. Thank you for taking the time to read why I think Trump will win in November. Please share it on Facebook, Twitter or any other platform that you hang out on. Please leave comments . I read them all. To support the work I do in this area you can leave feedback, follow me on Twitter, Medium or Steemit or alternatively fund my independence by becoming a patron or making a crypto donation Read the full article

#Biden #DNC #GOP #Trump #USA

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itsfinancethings · 4 years

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New story in Politics from Time: ‘We’re Pawns In This Game.’ Mayors Worry Trump’s Operation Legend Is More About Politics Than Law Enforcement

When President Donald Trump and Attorney General William Barr talk about sending more federal agents to U.S. cities to help stop violent crime, they use dire terms.

“Our goal is to help save lives,” Barr said at the same event.

Make sense of what matters in Washington. Sign up for the daily D.C. Brief newsletter.

But there has been uneven coordination between the U.S. attorneys and mayors in cities on the DOJ’s list, leaving some leaders uneasy.

—With reporting by W.J. Hennigan/Chicago

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theliberaltony · 4 years

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via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Today’s Super Tuesday, and while there will be a lot of focus on the really big states like California and Texas, every contest will matter if the race turns into a prolonged battle for delegates all the way to the Democratic National Convention in July — as seems likely. With that in mind, we’re going to take a quick tour through four Super Tuesday states in the South: Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee.1

In each of these contests, former Vice President Joe Biden is favored to win statewide and in most delegate districts, though his edge varies quite a bit from state to state. So let’s run through what we know about each, going from largest to smallest by delegate count. (One important warning before we start: We have limited polling for these states, which means we don’t have a lot to go on outside of what the model figures based on data from demographically and geographically similar states. We also have little polling overall conducted after former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar exited the race and endorsed Biden. In other words, we don’t have a great picture of what to expect today — in any state, but especially in these contests; the model is therefore accounting for a lot of uncertainty, and you should too.)

Up first is Tennessee, where our forecast shows Biden with about a 2 in 3 (68 percent) chance of finishing first. Sanders has a 1 in 4 (25 percent) shot of carrying the state, and Bloomberg has roughly a 1 in 20 (5 percent) chance. Warren, too, has a small chance of winning (1 percent).

These candidates’ statewide performances will decide 22 of Tennessee’s 64 pledged delegates. Our model forecasts Biden to win 34 percent of the overall vote, on average, while Sanders and Bloomberg are not far behind at 27 percent and 20 percent, respectively. Lastly among the last four competitive candidates left in the race, Warren’s average forecasted share is 14 percent.

The Volunteer State’s other 42 delegates will be determined by the vote in each of Tennessee’s nine congressional districts. Who reaches the 15 percent mark in those seats and statewide will determine who wins delegates in Tennessee, as is true everywhere else. As things stand, our forecast suggests that Biden and Sanders are most likely to win at least one district, though Bloomberg is also in a good position to finish above the 15 percent mark across the state. Warren is right around 15 percent in most districts, so how much she outperforms — or underperforms — will determine whether she can get a piece of the delegate pie. (One other thing: We have no idea what effect the tornado strikes early this morning might have on the vote in some parts of Tennessee, particularly near Nashville, except that turnout might be lower in the affected areas.)

Biden and Sanders lead the Tennessee districts

Average forecasted vote share for the top four Democratic presidential candidates in Tennessee congressional districts, according to the FiveThirtyEight model as of 9:30 a.m. on March 3

District Biden Sanders Bloomberg Warren TN-01 28% 30% 21% 16% TN-02 29 30 20 16 TN-03 31 29 20 15 TN-04 31 30 19 15 TN-05 34 27 20 14 TN-06 30 30 20 16 TN-07 31 30 19 16 TN-08 35 27 19 14 TN-09 46 21 19 9 State 34 27 20 14

Most of the districts have pretty similar outcomes, except for the 9th Congressional District centered on Memphis. It’s a strongly Democratic, majority-black district, so Biden’s strength with African American voters — as seen in South Carolina — gives him a real boost there. Biden also has an edge in the only other Democratic-leaning seat in the state, the 5th Congressional District located around Nashville, which has a larger nonwhite voter base than any Tennessee district save the 9th. Bloomberg and Biden perform better or worse in most of the same districts, as they both tend to be stronger in areas with more voters of color and less wealth.

On the flip side, Sanders runs nearest to Biden in the 1st, 2nd, 6th and 7th Congressional districts — four of the six districts in Tennessee that are more than 80 percent white. He’s very slightly ahead of Biden in the 1st and 2nd, which represent eastern Tennessee along the North Carolina border. Just as Biden and Bloomberg’s projected vote shares at the district level are similarly stronger or weaker, the same is true of Sanders and Warren.

Next up on our tour is Alabama, where the model gives Biden his strongest chance of victory among this quartet of states. He has about a 11 in 12 (91 percent) shot at winning the Cotton State, while Sanders and Bloomberg have a 1 in 20 (5 percent) and 1 in 30 (3 percent) chance, respectively.

The candidates’ statewide vote shares will allocate 18 of Alabama’s 52 pledged delegates to the national convention, and it looks like Biden might be in a position to win quite a few of them. His average forecasted vote share is 44 percent statewide, well ahead of 21 percent for Sanders, 19 percent for Bloomberg and 12 percent for Warren.

Alabama’s remaining 34 pledged delegates are apportioned by the candidate performances in each of the state’s seven congressional districts. The model shows Biden is likely to carry every district in the state, while Bloomberg and Sanders are in a close fight for second in many of the seats. Warren looks a bit off the pace in Alabama, but she could hit 15 percent in a couple places if she overperforms her polling across the board. In particular, the 6th Congressional District looks like her strongest.

Biden is likely to win all across Alabama

Average forecasted vote share for the top four Democratic presidential candidates in Alabama congressional districts, according to the FiveThirtyEight model as of 9:30 a.m. on March 3

District Biden Sanders Bloomberg Warren AL-01 43% 21% 19% 12% AL-02 45 20 19 12 AL-03 43 22 19 12 AL-04 36 25 20 14 AL-05 39 23 19 14 AL-06 38 24 19 15 AL-07 51 17 18 9 State 44 21 19 12

Biden has a clear edge across all districts in Alabama, but most notably in the 7th Congressional District, a heavily Democratic, majority-black seat that has far and away the most delegates of any Alabama district (eight). As in other Southern states, Biden’s support tends to be highly correlated with the black share of the population in each district, as is Bloomberg’s. And here, too, Bloomberg’s projected vote and Biden’s projected vote correspond strongly to one another. The same is true of Sanders’s and Warren’s vote shares, with their strongest districts being the 4th, 5th and 6th Congressional districts from the northern tip of the state down into central Alabama. Each of those districts is whiter than the state as a whole (at least 70 percent), and in two of them (the 5th and 6th), at least 30 percent of the adult population has a college degree.

Shifting west to the meeting point between the South and the Great Plains, we have Oklahoma, which our forecast suggests is more competitive than Alabama but slightly less so than Tennessee. Here too Biden has the best chance of winning with about a 4 in 5 (78 percent) shot, but our forecast also gives Sanders about a 1 in 6 (18 percent) chance. Although she was born in Oklahoma, Warren only has a 1 in 50 (2 percent) shot of winning the state, the same chance as Bloomberg.

Our model’s average forecasted statewide vote shares show Biden out ahead with 34 percent, 9 points in front of Sanders’s 25 percent. Meanwhile, Bloomberg and Warren are both projected to get about 17 percent statewide.

Oklahoma’s other 24 pledged delegates will be allocated by the vote shares in each of the Sooner State’s five congressional districts. Based on our forecast, Biden looks likely to win each district while Sanders finishes in second. But both Bloomberg and Warren are projected to clear the 15 percent threshold in every Oklahoma district, so the Sooner State appears to be the most likely contest of the four we’re looking at here to deliver delegates from every part of the state to all four leading candidates.

Four candidates could get delegates out of Oklahoma

Average forecasted vote share for the top four Democratic presidential candidates in Oklahoma congressional districts, according to the FiveThirtyEight model as of 9:30 a.m. on March 3

District Biden Sanders Bloomberg Warren OK-01 34% 25% 18% 17% OK-02 35 26 16 17 OK-03 34 26 16 17 OK-04 34 26 17 17 OK-05 35 24 18 16 State 34 25 17 17

And that all four candidates could get a piece of each district speaks to the fact that Oklahoma’s five congressional districts are relatively similar demographically speaking. Moreover, Oklahoma has relatively small shares of black and Hispanic voters — around 10 percent or less for both statewide — and both groups, particularly African American voters, help explain some of the district-level variation in other states. One other demographic group to note is Oklahoma’s sizable number of American Indians — they also make up almost one-tenth of the state’s population — though it’s unclear if they’ll swing toward one candidate in particular.

Our last stop is Arkansas, which the model pegs as the most wide-open race out of the four states we’re analyzing here. Biden has the best chance of victory, with about a 7 in 10 (69 percent) shot of finishing first. Bloomberg has a 1 in 6 (17 percent) chance of winning, while Sanders has about a 1 in 8 (12 percent) shot. Warren has just a 1 in 100 (1 percent) chance.

Arkansas’s projected statewide vote shares are somewhat reminiscent of Alabama’s in that Biden leads while Bloomberg and Sanders are in a race for second. However, Arkansas is less of a sure bet for Biden. Warren is well back of the pack at 15 percent.

Arkansas’s remaining 20 pledged delegates are apportioned by the vote in the Natural State’s four congressional districts, but only one seat — the 3rd Congressional District — looks pretty close. Biden has double-digit leads in the other three seats but Bloomberg and Sanders are close behind in the 3rd. Warren does have a chance of getting to 15 percent across the board.

Biden looks strong in Arkansas

Average forecasted vote share for the top four Democratic presidential candidates in Arkansas congressional districts, according to the FiveThirtyEight model as of 9:30 a.m. on March 3

District Biden Bloomberg Sanders Warren AR-01 37 24 22 14 AR-02 36 25 22 15 AR-03 29 25 25 17 AR-04 37 24 22 14 State 35 25 23 15

Biden’s bigger leads come in the three districts that are between 15 and 25 percent African American. But the 3rd Congressional District in northwest Arkansas — home to Wal-Mart — is less than 5 percent black, which helps explain why it’s the most competitive. It may be no coincidence that the 3rd is also Warren’s best seat, as it’s also the home of the University of Arkansas’s flagship campus in Fayetteville.

Taken together, these states don’t have much polling data to work with, but if Biden’s strength in South Carolina portends his performance in the South, we could see him racking up delegates here. But there’s also an opportunity for Bloomberg to pick up delegates and become a player in the race, too. Sanders has an outside shot of winning Tennessee and has his best chance of winning some districts there. If Sanders can win at least one of these states outright, that could help him not only win delegates but also run up the win count across the country on Super Tuesday. So definitely be prepared for surprises in these contests.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #Geoffrey Skelley

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cumminscalpacific · 6 years

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Election Day in Tennessee: 11 races to watch on Tuesday night

Election day is November 6th, 2018 Nashville Tennessean

As Tennesseans head to the polls Tuesday, they will have a chance to decide who they want to represent them on all levels.

On this year’s ballot are open positions for the U.S. Senate and governor, as well as the state’s nine U.S. House seats and 17 state Senate and 99 state House of Representatives seats.

As Tennessee Republicans look to maintain their supermajorities in the state legislature, and hold onto the offices of the governor and Senate, here are 11 interesting races to watch on Tuesday night.

US Senate: Marsha Blackburn vs Phil Bredesen

After U.S. Sen. Bob Corker’s bombshell retirement announcement late last year, U.S. Rep. Marsha Blackburn and former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen effectively cleared the field of anyone interested in the race.

In the 13 months since Corker’s decision, the Republican and Democratic nominees, respectively, have made their cases to voters.

Blackburn, who has aligned herself closely with President Donald Trump, has championed national issues ranging from her opposition to the Affordable Care Act to immigration reform while using partisan rhetoric to vie for the seat.

Bredesen has taken a more moderate, issues-based approach, while attempting to localize the race and suggest he will move away from partisan politics in favor of working on big ideas.

The race, which has drawn national interest as Republicans look to defend their 51-49 majority in the Senate, has quickly become the most expensive race in Tennessee history.

— Joel Ebert, The Tennessean

Governor: Bill Lee vs. Karl Dean

Term-limited Republican Gov. Bill Haslam is finishing out his eighth year of office, and Williamson County businessman Bill Lee and former Nashville Mayor Karl Dean are vying for his post.

Lee, a Republican seeking office for the first time, triumphed over U.S. Rep. Diane Black, R-Gallatin; state House Speaker Beth Harwell, R-Nashville; and Knoxville businessman Randy Boyd in the party’s August primary.

He has framed his lack of political experience as an asset, focusing on his time running the Lee Company, a Franklin-based HVAC, plumbing and electrical business. Lee has stressed the need for more vocational training in the state, starting at the high school level.

Dean, like Bredesen, has run as a centrist Democrat touting his moderate, pro-business policies and willingness to work with Republicans. He beat out House Minority Leader Craig Fitzhugh in the Democratic primary.

Dean has made Medicaid expansion a central component of his platform, calling for the Republican-controlled legislature to take up the issue in order to extend health care coverage to hundreds of thousands of uninsured Tennesseans.

— Natalie Allison, The Tennessean

7th Congressional District: Mark Green vs. Justin Kanew

Four candidates — one Republican, one Democrat and two independents — are vying for the congressional seat left open by U.S. Rep. Marsha Blackburn.

Blackburn, a Brentwood Republican, is giving up her seat to run for the U.S. Senate.

The seat has been a Republican stronghold for eight terms. Issues in the district range from rural hospital closings to the expansion of broadband internet.

Republican state Sen. Mark Green and Democrat Justin Kanew are the leading contenders for the seat.

Green started his career in politics in 2012 when he ran for the Tennessee General Assembly. In the state Senate, he serves as Senate Commerce Committee vice chair and Senate GOP Caucus chaplain. The Republican also found himself in the national spotlight as a nominee for U.S. Army secretary.

Kanew, a 39-year-old College Grove resident, moved to Tennessee two years ago with his wife and daughter from Southern California. He is a film writer and producer and past contestant on the television show "The Amazing Race."

The two independents are Leonard Ladner and Brent Legendre.

— Emily West, The Tennessean

State Senate District 31: Brian Kelsey vs. Gabby Salinas

Political newcomer Gabby Salinas, a Democrat, is seeking to defeat Brian Kelsey, the Republican incumbent.

Leaders of both major parties say population changes in the district, which covers much of East Memphis and suburban areas such as Germantown, could favor Democrats.

Republicans in the state appear to be feeling the heat as one group has spent more than $300,000 on advertising against Salinas, portraying her as a radical.

On the campaign trail, Kelsey has touted his accomplishments in office.

Salinas, a cancer survivor and scientist at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital, has sought to make Medicaid expansion a key issue in the race.

More on the race: Born in Bolivia, cancer survivor Gabby Salinas aims to unseat Brian Kelsey

— Jess Rollins, The Commercial Appeal

House District 13: Eddie Smith vs. Gloria Johnson

One of the closest races in the state the last two cycles will go for round three.

Smith unseated Johnson in 2014 and beat her again in 2016 by a total of approximately 300 votes out of 35,400 ballots cast. Gov. Bill Haslam ran ads across Knoxville in support of Smith last time and it was just enough.

Smith owns an event management company. Before he starting that business in 2014, he worked at a local Baptist church for 13 years. He is the vice-chair of the House Education Administration and Planning Committee and is running a campaign centered on fiscal responsibility and business friendliness.

Johnson is a retired special education teacher and former Knox County Democratic Party chair. She has campaigned on an education and access to health care. She served one term in the state legislature.

But this year’s race has a wild card. Independent candidate Zachary Houk could steal votes from either candidate and make for another interesting finish.

— Tyler Whetstone, Knoxville News Sentinel

House District 18: Martin Daniel vs. Greg Mackay

Two Knoxville politicos face off in West Knoxville’s normally reliable Republican district.

Daniel was first elected in 2014 after he knocked of Rep. Steve Hall in the Republican primary and he easily won re-election in 2016.

He is the owner of Elevation Outdoor Advertising LLC and is a frequent critic of the University of Tennessee on several issues, including UT’s now-defunded Office of Diversity and Inclusion.

Daniel’s campaign is centered on his experiences as a small business owner, someone who understands budgets and is a problem solver.

Mackay is a real estate agent and former administrator of the Knox County Elections Commission who has campaigned on health care reform and his willingness to work across the aisle once in Nashville. He served on the local election commission before becoming administrator.

— Tyler Whetstone, Knoxville News Sentinel

House District 33: John Ragan vs. Richard Dawson

The tech and industrial center of Oak Ridge and most of Anderson County make up House District 33, which will see a contested race between two U.S. Air Force veterans.

Republican Rep. John Ragan, a retired pilot turned business consultant, has served in Nashville since 2010 when he narrowly defeated former Democrat Rep. Jim Hackworth. Two years later he nicked Hackworth again and has had little challenge holding the seat since.

Ragan is the vice chair of the House Government Operations Committee and the vice chair that committee’s Health and General Welfare Subcommittee.

He made news in 2017 for a bill that would have put “alien” on non-U.S. citizen Tennessee driver’s licenses and other forms of identification. The bill was amended to say “visa” and was signed into law by Gov. Haslam in April.

Richard Dawson is a retired commercial pilot who flew helicopters for the Army in Vietnam before attending school on the GI Bill and serving in the Air Force for 20 years.

He isn’t new to politics as he served two terms as the chairman of the Anderson County Democratic Party and is running on a campaign of providing a living wage to workers, comprehensive health care and good schools.

— Tyler Whetstone, Knoxville News Sentinel

House District 56: Brent Moody vs. Bob Freeman

Despite being a historically Republican district that has been represented by House Speaker Beth Harwell for 30 years, Democrats are optimistic they can turn this seat in their favor.

Businessman Bob Freeman, who is the son of wealthy Democratic donor Bill Freeman, is squaring off against Nashville surgeon Brent Moody.

The affluent district, which includes Belle Meade, Forest Hills, Oak Hills and Green Hills, showed soft support for Trump during the 2016 election; parts of Green Hills even broke for Hillary Clinton.

As such, Freeman has spent significant money to run television ads for several weeks, while Moody refers to himself as a reasonable and responsible Republican.

The race is likely one of the best opportunities for Democrats to pick up a Republican seat in the statehouse.

— Joey Garrison, The Tennessean

House District 67: Tommy Vallejos vs. Jason Hodges

Three candidates are running for House District 67, a seat being vacated by Rep. Joe Pitts, who’s running for Clarksville mayor. The district covers most of the city of Clarksville.

Democrat Jason Hodges, a Marine Corps veteran, was elected to the Montgomery County Commission in 2014. He graduated from Northeast High School and Austin Peay State University, and works as the operations manager with Clarksville-Montgomery County Schools.

Republican Tommy Vallejos is a former Montgomery County commissioner and pastor. He retired from the Army after 21 years, and has a degree from the North Tennessee Bible Institute and Seminary. He’s known for his past as a gang member who reformed into a conservative Republican.

John Dawson, the independent candidate, retired from the Army in 2007 after 20 years, and currently works as a program analyst. He has an associate’s degree in aviation technology.

— Jennifer Babich, The Leaf Chronicle

House District 82: Chris Hurt vs. Andrea Bond-Johnson

Tennessee House District 82 features two newcomers, Republican Chris Hurt and Democrat Andrea Bond-Johnson.

One of them will fill the seat now held by House Minority Leader Craig Fitzhugh, who ran an unsuccessful bid for the Democratic nomination for governor.

Hurt, of Halls, is the owner of Hurt Land & Reality real estate company and a former teacher and football coach. He worked at Halls High School from 2000 to 2014.

His platform centers on removing regulations for farmers and small businesses, according to his campaign website.

Bond-Johnson is the CEO of Golden Circle Insurance Agency, a spinoff from Golden Circle Life Insurance Company, a company founded by her grandfather. She is also a licensed funeral director.

Her platform centers on the expansion of Medicaid in Tennessee, according to her campaign website.

District 82 includes Lauderdale, Crockett and Haywood Counties.

— Jennifer Pignolet, The Commercial Appeal

House District 96: Scott McCormick vs. Dwayne Thompson

The race for state House District 96 features a Republican Shelby County Schools board member running against a Democrat incumbent.

Scott McCormick, of East Memphis, looks to unseat Dwayne Thompson, of Cordova, in the race to represent Cordova and part of Germantown.

Thompson, a human resources professional, also served six years in the U.S. Army Reserve, according to his campaign website. He is a member of the House committees on consumer and human resources, insurance and insurance and banking.

McCormick serves as the District 5 representative on the school board. He served on the Memphis City Council from 2004 to 2008 as chairman of the Parks Committee until being elected as chairman of the council in 2007.

He also served as director of the Memphis Botanic Garden from February 2015 to May 2016.

On the school board, McCormick heads the committee tasked with the superintendent’s annual evaluation.

— Jennifer Pignolet, The Commercial Appeal

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democratsunited-blog · 6 years

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Politician calls for an independent party in Shelby County, but could it work?

https://uniteddemocrats.net/?p=5939

Politician calls for an independent party in Shelby County, but could it work?

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MEMPHIS, Tenn. — Everyone is after the public’s vote but when it comes to how they go about getting it, some voters are left unimpressed.

Political in-fighting and parties throwing verbal punches is enough to make some voters say “I pass.”

Local political leaders who try to promote their candidates say it comes with the territory.

“A lot of people don’t like the negative campaigning and the constant attacks and those sorts of things. At the same time those things work. That’s why you see a lot of that on statewide and national level,” former Shelby County Republican Party Chairman Lang Wiseman said.

“Our voters need a government that represents them,” says Shelby County Democratic Party Chairman Corey Strong.

Longtime Memphis politician Sidney Chism has held several political positions, most recently losing the Democratic Primary election for Shelby County Mayor. Chism says the face of local politics has shifted with parties and candidates offering no real solutions.

“They preach education. They preach diversity. They preach anything to get a sound bite, but never doing anything that’s effective to get our people out of the poverty level,” Chism said.

He thinks the solution is an Independent movement that would put its support behind a candidate who is committed to job opportunities and attracting young people to address the main thing holding Memphis back: poverty.

“It keeps both parties honest. A third party can effectively decide who is gonna be the next person in our leadership positions elected.”

It’s tough for independent parties to find success, said Michael Sances, a political science professor at the University of Memphis.

“An insurgent-type candidate could capture a nomination but if they are to win office, they are still going to have to deal with being the standard-bearer of their major party, have to work with all the other major party legislators,” Sances said.

Democratic and Republican Party leaders say an independent Party in Shelby County isn’t the way to go.

“I don’t support the idea of a third party,” Strong said. “I support the idea of the two parties that do exist sincerely looking at the issues that effect our citizens of all stripes, all colors, all neighborhoods.”

Wiseman said, “I think here locally the best way for us to accomplish those same types of goals is simply to have non-partisan races where people can gravitate towards specific candidates they like no matter what party they may be.”

But Sidney Chism says it’s an idea whose time has come. He says it’s not about being a spoiler and preventing anyone from winning.

In races where there is no independent candidate, independent support could still carry heavy weight to those on the ballot who are focused on the people.

“If a third party controls 25 percent of the vote and they are supporting a candidate, be it Democrat or Republican, that candidate can and will win,” says Chism.

Voters looking for something different might gravitate.

“It’s just obviously always comes down to Democrats and Republicans and I think that divides a lot of people. and where a third-party could actually come in and blend the two and say you don’t have to agree with everything the Republicans say and everything the Democrats say,” another voter told us.

Chism says he has garnered a lot of interest in forming an independent movement. They are already identifying candidates.

Read full story here

#Democrats

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plusorminuscongress · 5 years

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New story in Politics from Time: Booker, de Blasio Hit Biden For Reminiscing About Working With Segregationists

Sen. Cory Booker and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio harshly criticized Democratic frontrunner Joe Biden Wednesday over his comments about working with segregationist lawmakers in the past.

In a marked contrast from the so-far mostly friendly primary, the two candidates took on the former vice president directly after he reminisced about his cordial relationship with Sens. James Eastland and Herman Talmadge when he first joined the Senate.

De Blasio, who is married to a black woman, tweeted a reference to a handbill circulated by Eastland supporters at his rallies which twisted the Declaration of Independence to say that “whites are created with certain rights, among them are life, liberty, and the pursuit of dead n—-rs.”

“It’s 2019 & @JoeBiden is longing for the good old days of ‘civility’ typified by James Eastland. Eastland thought my multiracial family should be illegal & that whites were entitled to ‘the pursuit of dead n*ggers,’” de Blasio wrote on Twitter. “It’s past time for apologies or evolution from @JoeBiden. He repeatedly demonstrates that he is out of step with the values of the modern Democratic Party.”

It’s 2019 & @JoeBiden is longing for the good old days of “civility” typified by James Eastland. Eastland thought my multiracial family should be illegal & that whites were entitled to “the pursuit of dead n*ggers." (1/2) pic.twitter.com/yoOOkpaTX2

— Bill de Blasio (@BilldeBlasio) June 19, 2019

Booker rebutted Biden’s remark that Eastland “never called me boy” — a demeaning term whites often used to address black men of all ages in the segregation era — by tweeting an iconic image of striking sanitation workers in Memphis carrying signs that said “I am a man.”

pic.twitter.com/pZ7RRxQzfM

— Cory Booker (@CoryBooker) June 19, 2019

“Vice President Biden’s relationships with proud segregationists are not the model for how we make America a safer and more inclusive place for black people, and for everyone,” Booker said in a statement. “I have to tell Vice President Biden, as someone I respect, that he is wrong for using his relationships with Eastland and Talmadge as examples of how to bring our country together.”

“And frankly, I’m disappointed that he hasn’t issued an immediate apology for the pain his words are dredging up for many Americans. He should.”

Biden’s comments came at an Upper East Side New York fundraiser on Tuesday, where he was recalling his time in the Senate to a crowd of about 100 people.

“I was in a caucus with James O. Eastland,” Biden said, even briefly using a southern accent, according to a pool report. “He never called me boy, he always called me son.”

Biden also addressed Talmadge, who he referred to as “one of the meanest guys I ever knew.”

“You go down the list of all these guys. Well guess what? At least there was some civility. We got things done. We didn’t agree on much of anything. We got things done. We got it finished,” he said. “But today, you look at the other side and you’re the enemy. Not the opposition, the enemy. We don’t talk to each other anymore.”

Both late senators were segregationist Democrats from the South, and today they’re best remembered for their racist legacies: Among other things, Eastland claimed that the Civil Rights Movement was backed by communists, while Talmadge criticized the Supreme Court’s Brown v. Board of Education decision to desegregate schools.

The criticism came on a particularly notable day, as the House held committee hearings on a bill to study reparations for slavery, while many Americans celebrated Juneteenth, a holiday commemorating the emancipation of slaves in the Confederacy. Booker, who introduced a Senate version of the bill, testified at the hearings earlier in the day.

Senior members of the Congressional Black Caucus defended Biden, however, arguing the remarks were taken out of context.

“I worked with Strom Thurmond all my life,” House Majority Whip James Clyburn told Politico, referencing a segregationist senator. “You don’t have to agree with people to work with them.”

By Lissandra Villa on June 19, 2019 at 03:08PM

#Time #politics #PlusOrMinusCongress #±Congress #Indega±#IndegaPlusOrMinus #TimeMag #TimeMagazine

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patriotwildlifecontrol · 6 years

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History Of Germantown Tn

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The church continues

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from Patriot Wildlife Control Serving Collierville & Germantown TN (901) 287-1932 - Feed https://patriotwildlifecontrol.com/germantown/history-of-germantown-tn/

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tiffanystocktonlove · 6 years

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Data drives Amazon’s shortlist of 20 cities for HQ2

Amazon’s shortlist of cities that stand a chance to host HQ2 may have arisen out of many factors and the data stacks them in different ways.

The nation’s capital looks like a favorite to land Amazon’s second North American headquarters.

Amazon showed 218 cities, counties, states and provinces the door, cutting the list of eligible suitors for its second home down to 20 Thursday morning, and three of the spots left standing are in the Washington, D.C. area. GeekWire co-founder John Cook put D.C. at the top of his list of remaining cities with the best shot of landing the Seattle-based tech giant.

But the data may say otherwise.

Following the initial announcement of the HQ2 sweepstakes, we ranked top contenders based on the information in Amazon’s request for proposals, and today we’re going back to the data to see how the remaining suitors stack up.

Our top three data-driven candidates to land HQ2 are Toronto, Boston and Philadelphia. D.C. comes in sixth in our ranking.

Toronto was a popular pick in the GeekWire newsroom soon after HQ2 was announced. Boston has been rumored as a favorite since the beginning. Philadelphia would be a little more of a peculiar choice, but it sits along the same East Coast corridor as many of the other shortlisted areas while providing a more affordable alternative to places like Boston and New York.

Here are the four main criteria that Amazon sets out in its HQ2 RFP, along with the data we pulled to quantify each one and why.

Metropolitan areas with more than one million people: This is the easiest one to quantify, and we looked at population in millions, based on US Census Bureau via Wikipedia

A stable and business-friendly environment: Let’s assume that business taxes are a reasonable proxy. We grabbed state/province business tax rankings from Tax Foundation and The Conference Board of Canada to measure the business climate in each metro area.

Urban or suburban locations with the potential to attract and retain strong technical talent: This speaks to both education level as well as tech talent in each area. To rank these requirements, we looked at CBRE’s tech talent report and university degree attainment percentages from Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program via New York Times and Statistics Canada

Communities that think big and creatively when considering locations and real estate options: This one is a little more outside the box and subjective. To get at this requirement we added home prices via data from National Association of Realtors and Canadian Real Estate Association and transit rankings from WalkScore.

The city of Toronto. (BigStock Photo)

Based on the data, here’s how the cities still standing in the HQ2 race rank. One caveat: we based our original analysis on metro areas, and some locations — like the three Washington, D.C.-area submissions and New York-New Jersey — are part of the same metro area. Continue reading for more analysis of those spots.

Toronto

Boston

Philadelphia

Chicago

Atlanta

Washington, D.C.

Denver

Pittsburgh

Austin

Raleigh

New York

Indianapolis

Dallas

Miami

Columbus

Nashville

Los Angeles

To be sure, some of our data-driven top picks from our first round of analysis in September didn’t make the cut. Four of our top 10 didn’t advance, and a few of Amazon’s top picks were on the bottom of our list.

Here is the complete data ranking of metro areas from September:

Metro Area Toronto, ON, Canada 5.93 11 6 9 56 3 17.0 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 3.80 10 2 17 53 13 19.0 Ottawa-Gatineau, ON, Canada 1.32 8 9 41 19 19.3 Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH 4.79 4 9 27 52 5 19.4 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 6.07 20 20 24 25 8 19.4 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI 9.51 17 13 23 35 9 19.4 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 5.79 16 5 36 16 25 19.6 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 6.13 1 4 37.5 51 7 20.1 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC 2.47 25 23 11 22 20.3 Montréal, QC, Canada 4.10 32 10 36 4 20.5 Vancouver, BC, Canada 2.46 18 14 8 57 6 20.6 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO 2.85 7 12 16 50 21 21.2 Pittsburgh, PA 2.34 37 27 24 5 14 21.4 Austin-Round Rock, TX 2.06 6 8 14 43 38 21.8 Raleigh, NC 1.30 5 7 11 38 49 22.0 St. Louis, MO-IL 2.81 33 32 15 8 23 22.2 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA 4.68 3 1 48 58 2 22.4 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA 2.42 21 18 10 48 16 22.6 New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA 20.15 12 3 49 49 1 22.8 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD 2.80 13 11 42 37 11 22.8 Calgary, AB, Canada 1.39 14 3 47 29 23.3 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 3.55 9 16 46 34 12 23.4 Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI 4.30 47 19 12 9 32 23.8 Kansas City, MO-KS 2.10 24 26 15 14 45 24.8 Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN 2.00 30 30 8 10 48 25.2 Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI 1.05 52 12 12 25.3 Memphis, TN-MS-AR 1.34 57 13 7 25.7 Rochester, NY 1.08 22 31 49 1 26 25.8 Tucson, AZ 1.02 31 21 18 37 26.8 Salt Lake City, UT 1.19 38 21 9 42 27 27.4 Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY 1.13 42 49 2 17 27.5 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 7.23 28 10 37 33 31 27.8 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX 6.77 41 28 14 23 34 28.0 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL 6.07 43 42 4 44 10 28.6 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 2.44 44 29 4 27 39 28.6 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 3.03 53 24 4 19 44 28.8 Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT 1.21 15 34 43 24 29.0 Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI 1.57 26 35 39 28 18 29.2 Jacksonville, FL 1.48 49 43 4 21 29.3 Columbus, OH 2.04 23 25 45 13 42 29.6 Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN 2.17 36 36 45 6 28 30.2 Edmonton, AB, Canada 1.32 54 3 40 24 30.3 Cleveland-Elyria, OH 2.06 45 39 45 3 22 30.8 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 4.66 48 15 21 29 41 30.8 Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN 1.87 34 37 13 30 50 32.8 Richmond, VA 1.28 27 40 33 32 33.0 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 2.43 56 41 14 20 35 33.2 Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV 2.16 58 5 31 40 33.5 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 13.31 29 22 48 54 15 33.6 San Diego-Carlsbad, CA 3.32 19 17 48 55 33 34.4 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 1.98 2 48 59 30 34.8 New Orleans-Metairie, LA 1.27 50 41 15 35.3 Oklahoma City, OK 1.37 46 44 31 4 52 35.4 Providence-Warwick, RI-MA 1.61 39 44 39 20 35.5 Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN 1.28 55 34 11 46 36.5 Birmingham-Hoover, AL 1.15 51 32 17 47 36.8 Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC 1.73 40 38 33 26 51 37.6 Sacramento-Roseville-Arden-Arcade, CA 2.30 35 33 48 45 36 39.4 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 4.53 59 48 46 43 49.0

One of the more surprising things to come out of the shortlist was the multiple locations in the same region bidding against one another. It is unclear how this will affect the final bidding process, but it’s easy to imagine respective mayors and other elected officials engaging in intra-regional competitions to offer more incentives and tax breaks.

In the Washington, D.C., region, three areas are under consideration: D.C. proper, Northern Virginia and Montgomery County in Maryland. All three of these areas share a few things in common. They all receive the bulk of their travelers from the region’s two main airports — Dulles and Ronald Reagan, both located in Virginia. The region’s subway system serves all three areas, with all routes leading into D.C.

But each area offers its own advantages. D.C., of course, is where all the political and economic action happens. Some have argued that Bezos — who quietly built an empire hiding in the rain-soaked shadows of Seattle — will need to elevate his persona as Amazon enters its next chapter, and D.C. is the place to do that. Bezos also owns The Washington Post, and he just bought a $23 million home in D.C.

The United States Capitol in Washington, D.C. Does Jeff Bezos want to be closer to political power brokers? (Flickr Photo / Daniel Mennerich)

Northern Virginia makes a lot of sense if the purpose of HQ2 is to eventually spin off Amazon Web Services. That area is well known as a data center hub, and Amazon last year announced plans to build a new East Coast campus in Northern Virginia. The area is also home to a huge hub for the U.S. Department of Defense and an abundance of cybersecurity talent, a must have as massive cyberattacks become increasingly more common.

Montgomery County in Maryland is the only county-level proposal to make the cut. Encompassing the northern suburbs of D.C., the area is home to a wealthy, well-educated population. Its top employers are also U.S. government agencies, and the region is also the headquarters for hotel giant Marriott, a plus if Amazon envisions hosting a lot of visitors from around the world at a Montgomery County HQ2.

In the New York-New Jersey cluster, Amazon is basically choosing between talent and tax incentives. Both areas draw from the same airports generally — La Guardia, JFK and Newark. Prior to the HQ2 response deadline, New Jersey publicized an offer of more than $7 billion in incentives that included significant property and wage tax breaks as well as subsidies for every job created.

New York City boasts the nation’s largest tech workforce outside of the San Francisco Bay Area. Amazon already has a significant presence in the Big Apple, and makes sense as a destination as the retail giant continues to dive deeper into fashion.

The post Data drives Amazon’s shortlist of 20 cities for HQ2 appeared first on Retailnewsfeed.com.

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itsfinancethings · 4 years

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When President Donald Trump and Attorney General William Barr talk about sending more federal agents to U.S. cities to help stop violent crime, they use dire terms.

“Our goal is to help save lives,” Barr said at the same event.

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But there has been uneven coordination between the U.S. attorneys and mayors in cities on the DOJ’s list, leaving some leaders uneasy.

—With reporting by W.J. Hennigan/Chicago

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