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thrashermaxey · 6 years

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Ramblings: Review of the Weekend, Rick Nash, and More – June 26

It was quite the wild weekend at the Draft. We didn’t have nearly the action on Friday in terms of trades that we thought we would, but we did have a lot of movement on draft boards I don’t think (m)any saw coming.

Saturday was a different story, though. In case you missed anything, I’m going to briefly recap what we’ve posted here at Dobber the last few days:

Ian’s Ramblings on Sunday gave his take on the Draft, Kovalchuk, and the Calgary/Carolina trade.

Dobber covered the Ilya Kovalchuk signing in Los Angeles as well as the Calgary/Carolina trade.

Cam’s Ramblings on Saturday covered the first day of the Draft.

I wrote about the Philipp Grubauer trade on Friday.

Cam and Peter Harling from Dobber Prospects posted their reactions on the first round of the Draft in a podcast over on Dobber Prospects.

Hayden had a Ramblings on Dobber Prospects discussing the best fits from the draft.

There was a lot going on so in case you missed something, or want to go over it again, there is a lot to review.

Given that most of the excitement happened on Saturday, at least from the perspective of impacts on current NHLers, I wanted to get my thoughts out there on both Kovalchuk and the big trade.

Ilya Kovalchuk

Where I agree with Dobber in his assessment of the Kovalchuk signing is how this helps Anze Kopitar. The word ‘helps’ is relative. As Dobber mentioned, it’s going to be very hard for the Slovenian centre to improve on 92 points, Kovalchuk or not. It will help him maintain somewhere close to that level, though, so it’ll help him not fall off steeply in production, but not necessarily help him improve. Again, help is relative.

Where I kind of part with Dobber is on how the top-6 will look. When Jeff Carter returned at the end of February, Tyler Toffoli spent a not-insignificant amount of time on the third line. In fact, he spent about one-third of his five-on-five ice time with Adrian Kempe compared to about two-thirds with Jeff Carter. Part of this was because Toffoli slumped hard in the second half (seven goals in calendar 2018), part of this was because, I assume, there was a desire to have more than two scoring lines. Maybe next year, we see pairs of forwards like many teams have e.g. Kopitar/Kovalchuk together, Carter/Pearson together, Toffoli/Kempe together, and then wingers are mixed and matched as needed? Or maybe Pearson and Toffoli are switched. It would give the Kings a third scoring line they really haven’t had in recent memory. From a real-hockey perspective, it probably makes more sense to operate like that rather than stacking the top two lines and hoping Adrian Kempe can carry a third line with Trevor Lewis or whomever.

A final point on the impact of the signing is the power play. Los Angeles is one of the teams that has stuck by a three-forward top PP unit even as more teams move to a four-forward unit. Los Angeles had nearly 382 power play minutes available last year. Out of those 382 minutes, nearly half of them (about 48.3 percent) featured Drew Doughty with one of Jake Muzzin or Alec Martinez. Now, was this just a function of not having Jeff Carter most of the year, or is it the PP setup they truly want to use? Because if they stick with two defencemen, one would assume that means a forward unit of Kopitar-Kovalchuk-Carter. If they go to one defenceman, do they add Dustin Brown or Tyler Toffoli? A big part of Brown’s resurgence last year was power-play production; he had 15 PPPs in 2017-18 but had just 15 total PPPs from 2014-2017.

Note that when Carter returned, they still used two defencemen, so even with the option of running Kopitar-Carter-Brown-Toffoli-Doughty, they kept Toffoli largely off the top PP unit. If they decide to go to a four-forward top PP unit, Brown seems in line to get the first crack. That could all change, though, if Toffoli returns to sniper form.

In that sense, I don’t think this signing helps Toffoli unless he leapfrogs Brown in the power play pecking order, but it won’t necessarily hurt him, either; he’s set for a rebound at five-on-five and PP production has never been a cornerstone of his fantasy value. It sure does limit his upside though.

As far as Kovalchuk’s production goes, expecting anything more than 30 goals or 60 points is foolish. Guys his age just don’t produce at elite rates in today’s NHL, even fellow future Hall of Famers like Marian Hossa and Jarome Iginla. Start with those marks and work backwards when establishing your rankings.

Calgary-Carolina Trade

That the Hurricanes traded Noah Hanifin isn’t a huge surprise. His name had been in rumours for a while now and new ownership was clear on wanting to shake things up. Once it was made public that Elias Lindholm’s camp and the Hurricanes were far apart on a new contract (he’s an RFA due for a raise), it made sense he’d be on the move as well.

I don’t think anyone expected the trade that occurred.

Before getting into fantasy analysis, I’m going to say this: why does Dougie Hamilton keep getting traded? We saw the reports come out post-trade that Hamilton wasn’t a guy to spend a lot of time going out with the team (he likes museums and apparently that’s a negative character flaw). There were quotes from Flames GM Brad Treliving about “changing the mix” in the room. We remember the knives coming out after he was traded from Boston, and on Twitter, Bruins beat writer Joe Haggerty mused Hamilton not going to Las Vegas for a postseason team drinking binge was the last straw.

It’s also been discussed by the media and by Bill Peters that there was a desire to reunite TJ Brodie and Mark Giordano. That would have pushed Hamilton to the second pairing. That’s coming from the Flames. As is his nature, there has been no comment from Hamilton on the matter.

Keep in mind: Hamilton is well-known for work in the community including being the organizer for Flames players visiting the local children’s hospital on Halloween and dropping in to youth hockey practices. He won an award for his endeavours in the Calgary community.

Apparently, if you’re an elite defenceman playing for an NHL team in Canada, donating time and money to children’s hospitals is a one-way ticket out of town.

This is how Calgary performed in 2017-18:

they gave up the seventh-most power plays to the opponent this year

the goaltenders were 22nd in five-on-five save percentage

they were 29th in five-on-five shooting percentage

they were 29th in power-play shooting percentage

Did Hamilton cause the goalies to be poor, Mike Smith to get hurt, and the team to be abysmal at scoring at five-on-five? Did he cause them to shoot a full one percent less at five-on-five compared to 2016-17?

Or maybe all this is just nonsense and, under the pressure of a failed season largely driven by percentages, Brad Treliving had to make a seismic move and the guy who visits museums is the easy target.

Anyway, when you have a star – and Hamilton is one of the best defencemen in the NHL – you figure out a way to make it work. Especially one in the middle of his prime making way less than market value.

Now, to the actual fantasy analysis of the trade.

For years, Carolina had two problems: they couldn’t score and their goalies couldn’t make saves. In the game of hockey, being unable to tally or prevent goals is a, let’s say, problem.

That started to change over the last couple years. Post-2013 lockout, 2016-17 and 2017-18 are the two seasons Carolina ranked highest in the league in goals/60 minutes at five-on-five. The power play wasn’t great, but it was better than Calgary’s, and there is a lot of room for improvement. Remember, we are going into Sebastian Aho’s third season, Teuvo Teravainen’s fourth full year, they have Martin Necas on his way, and just drafted Andrei Svechnikov. Veterans like Justin Williams and Jordan Staal, both capable scorers, are still around. There is still talk of Justin Faulk and Jeff Skinner being traded, and while the latter being moved won’t help scoring, hopefully on aggregate the return will.

Regardless, at least in terms of skaters, this franchise is moving in the right direction, and Hamilton will be there to log big minutes at five-on-five and on the power play. A repeat of his 2017-18 season seems more likely than his 2016-17 season.

I think we saw the high-water mark from Micheal Ferland in 2017-18. It’s doubtful he’s on the first line in Carolina as he was in Calgary, and if he’s in the bottom-6 and on the second PP unit, he’s waiver fodder in fantasy leagues that don’t count hits. In those that do count hits, bank more on 2016-17 production than 2017-18.

As far as Elias Lindholm is concerned, I’m not convinced he moves right to the top line. Yes, they have been looking for a right winger for Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan basically since Jiri Hudler’s magical 2014-15 season. They also badly need to lengthen the lineup. The trio of Sam Bennett, Mark Jankowski, and Garnet Hathaway was actually pretty good for them last year as a third line (54.5 percent shot share, 50.8 percent goal share, 54.6 percent expected goal share) but I don’t think they see it that way. I assume they, like the Los Angeles Kings mentioned above, see a scoring third line as a necessity, and don’t want to leave it up to Bennett-Jankowski-Hathaway to do it. Coach Bill Peters doesn’t seem convinced Lindholm to the top line is a lock, either:

Bill Peters says he is going to play Tkachuk a bit on the right side this year. But if the season started tomorrow, he’d put Lindholm with Monahan and Gaudreau.

— Kristen Anderson (@KdotAnderson) June 23, 2018

Process of elimination says there’s either a plan in place to A) move Tkachuk to the top line right wing, B) just move Tkachuk to the right side of this own second line for some reason, C) move Tkachuk to the third line. Given the second two options are improbable, Tkachuk moving the top line is what Peters is inferring.

That would be incredible for Matthew Tkachuk, who is so proficient in multi-cat leagues that he doesn’t really need the production boost, but he’d be an elite asset if that were the case. It would also kill any hope for a Lindholm improvement. My assumption is it’ll be a fluid situation all year.

This does clear the way for lock-top minutes for Mark Giordano on the PP, but again like Los Angeles, it’s a matter of whether they use a 3F2D power play or 4F1D. They had a lot of minutes with Gio-Hamilton together, do they just slide Noah Hanifin in Hamilton’s spot? It would make two lefties, so unless one is used in the diamond, I doubt it.

Remember, this also gives them three good left-shot defencemen in Giordano, Brodie, and Hanifin. Bill Peters said they wanted to get away from the Brodie-Hamonic pairing and get back to the top pair of Giordano-Brodie. That leaves Hanifin with Hamonic and then whatever they decide to do with the third pair. Here’s the kicker: going with Giordano-Brodie and Hanifin-Hamonic leaves Michael Stone as the third right defenceman, meaning there’s no room for Rasmus Andersson in the regular rotation unless they play one of he and Stone on their off-side. This configuration would be bad news for Andersson dynasty owners hoping he could get into the lineup this year.

One free agent going a bit under the radar is Rick Nash, but it’s not a certainty he even plays next year:

Has anyone mentioned the fact @FriedgeHNIC and @JeffMarek suggest Rick Nash is considering retirement? Kind of a big nugget in the 31 Thoughts pod.

— Ian McLaren (@iancmclaren) June 25, 2018

Oh man. Could we be looking at a possible Rick Nash retirement? This excerpt from the Boston Globe says there’s a chance. #CBJ pic.twitter.com/82dU7FeNNX

— Mark Scheig (@markscheig) June 24, 2018

As the Boston Globe points out, Nash has a lengthy injury history (read: concussions) and has already made more than enough money for his family and several generations after to live well. The Stanley Cup has remained elusive, but I’m sure he’s weighing his future quality of life against the desire for that Cup. Maybe he decides it’s not worth it?

Your daily update on John Tavares Watch

Confirmed teams that John Tavares will meet with this week at CAA offices in L.A.: Dallas, Boston, San Jose, Toronto, Tampa (plus of course NYI). The Tavares camp will also have conversations with 2-3 other teams over the phone and perhaps also meet with 1-2 of them.

— Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) June 25, 2018

For an update on trade/free agent rumours, I recommend Elliotte Friedman’s 31 Thoughts column. One of the interesting nuggets was that the Blues seem to be in on trying to acquire Ryan O’Reilly. They have the pieces necessary and a definite need up the middle.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-review-of-the-weekend-rick-nash-and-more-june-26/

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thrashermaxey · 6 years

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Ramblings: Thoughts on Game 7, Round 2, Flames’ Lines (Apr 25)

Thoughts on Game 7, Round 2, Flames’ Lines, plus more…

Hockey fans are blessed with their first Game 7 of the playoffs this evening (or tomorrow evening, if you’re up late reading this). Considering that the Bruins have generally carried the play in this series – particularly in the first two games – I’m surprised that the Leafs have made it this far. But the nice thing about the playoffs is that every game starts at 0-0. If you’re curious, the Bruins have outscored the Leafs 21-16 in the series.

I still think the Bruins will win this series. But it’s a Game 7, so anything can happen. Especially if you remember the last time these two teams faced each other in a Game 7 (sorry, Toronto fans).

As strong as the Bruins’ top line has been, it has slowed considerably recently.

Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak have zero points and are a combined minus-16 in the three losses to Leafs in this series. If that continues on Wednesday night they'll be golfing by the weekend

— Joe Haggerty (@HackswithHaggs) April 24, 2018

David Pastrnak has just two assists in his last four games, while Brad Marchand has a single goal and no assists over that span. If you could sell high in a playoff pool, the time between Games 2 and 3 would have been when to do it.

The Leafs’ playoff MVP so far (at least among scorers) has been Mitch Marner. If the Leafs win Game 7, expect him to be a difference-maker.

#Leafs Mitch Marner has been a thorn in the side of the Bruins this season pic.twitter.com/EBEUdvQAq4

— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) April 24, 2018

I’m happy to say that I’ve guaranteed a record over .500 in my DobberHockey Expert Panel playoff picks with a record of 5-2 so far. I made the correct call on Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Nashville, Winnipeg, and San Jose, while missing the mark on Washington and Vegas. Many of the picks by other writers were similar to mine, so I’m thinking that there will be many other writers with a winning record.

I said in an earlier Ramblings that probabilities suggest that at least one of the six 0-2 teams would bounce back to win their series. There happened to be a seventh 0-2 team, which went 0-2 the day after. That team was Washington. If Toronto wins Game 7, there would be a second team that started its series 0-2.

Here are some quick sort-of-random thoughts on the upcoming series we already know, although I may not won’t make my picks here. You’ll see them in the next experts panel article.

Nashville/Winnipeg

This is the one series that everyone can’t wait to watch. In other words, it’s what Washington/Pittsburgh was last season. #1 overall vs. #2 overall. So the team that wins this series could be your Stanley Cup winner. (By the way, does anyone want to see the #1 vs. #16, #2 vs. #15 etc. format return? Would be hell travel-wise but the most fair method).

Since I have Nashville reaching the Cup final, I should pick them to win this series. But then I have Tampa beating Nashville in the final because I think Tampa’s scoring would be the difference in that series. So if Tampa can beat Nashville, then why can’t Winnipeg? Maybe lack of playoff experience? We expected this series from midseason on and I don’t think it will disappoint.

Washington/Pittsburgh

It’s hard to believe that this series has gone from the main event in 2016-17 to the undercard in 2017-18, yet things change. Is this the year Washington finally gets over the hump that is the Pittsburgh Penguins? One day Wile E. Coyote has to catch the Road Runner, and one day Charlie Brown will kick the football. What if this is the year for the Capitals after we’ve finally thrown in the towel on them? Not a single Dobber writer picked Washington to even make the final, while only 5 of 18 writers picked them to even make it past Columbus. Should be another great series, except if you’re a Capitals fan and they lose again.

Vegas/San Jose

This is not a series that I would have picked in my right mind. Especially not Vegas. As good as San Jose has been, I have a very hard time betting against Vegas right now. I don’t know how to describe it except that it is some kind of x-factor.

Because of where I live and the time that is the easiest for me to watch hockey, this will probably be the series that I watch the most. Yet I have the least to say about it. With both teams off for over a week, this series could be a little slow in the beginning.

Start dates for each series, just announced on Tuesday:

Schedule confirmed.

Pitt v Wash starts Thursday SJ v Vegas starts Thursday Wpg v Nash starts Friday Bos/Tor v TB starts Saturday#StanleyCup

— John Shannon (@JSportsnet) April 24, 2018

Regarding the Bill Peters hiring in Cowtown:

Plenty of interesting stuff at the Saddledome today. One thing Peters mentioned was he's more of a pairings guy and not so much a line guy. I expect 23 and 13 to form one such duo, but I'm intrigued to see how he sees the rest of the forward group and if we see some new pairings.

— Darren Haynes (@DarrenWHaynes) April 23, 2018

This kind of reminds me of 2016-17, when no-name Alex Chiasson was a frequent linemate of Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan. Last season it was Micheal Ferland and it wasn’t even close (88.6% of Ferland’s even-strength minutes were with Gaudreau and Monahan). The new coach in town could be open to many more possibilities, so there’s a chance that this hire hurts Ferland. He led the Flames with 171 hits last season, so he’s an option in leagues that count that category no matter what. If he can stay with Johnny and Sean, then he can easily build on his first 20-goal, 40-point season. But if not, his value takes a hit.

Assuming Mikael Backlund remains as the second-line center, forwards such as Ferland, Matthew Tkachuk, Michael Frolik, and Sam Bennett will be up for possible line redistribution. But as Dobber said in his Fantasy Take, expect a bump in power-play goals for the Flames. There’s more overall talent on Calgary’s first-unit power play than there was in Carolina.

Ethical dilemma: Someone in your fantasy league drops a player that is 99% owned. A short time later, they message the entire league saying they dropped the player by accident. Do you submit a waiver claim?

— Ian Gooding (@Ian_Gooding) April 24, 2018

Thank you for your responses to this question on Twitter and on the Forum. By the way, the responses on the Forum were unanimously in favor (16-0) of not submitting a waiver claim when this happens.

commissioner overide and re-add to team in question every time

— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) April 24, 2018

This would be the most ideal solution. It would ensure that the owner receives the player back quickly and is not forced to wait several days for the player to clear waivers. In one of my leagues I’ve returned players to owners before. Not just in cases where they wanted the player back, but also in instances when they didn’t want the player (the owner wasn’t permitted to drop the player as per league rules).

But what about a situation where league settings do not grant the commissioner that power, or in this case, the commissioner did not say or do anything? In the end I’m glad no one went rogue and added the player. It would have been awkward if someone else added the player and the owner voiced his displeasure as a result. These situations can get ugly. Yes, the commissioner should have responded in some way, but not every league has an uber-responsive commish. I try to be in leagues where I volunteer for that position, although please don’t ask me to process a trade when I’m at work!

A great point that was made throughout: Should there be a statute of limitations? In other words, how long does this owner have before it’s too late? For the record, this owner posted his message within a day of accidentally dropping the player. I think a day or two is fine, although I’m not sure this scenario happens often enough where a league rule is needed. Usually the owner would post the message fairly quickly anyway.

For more fantasy hockey information, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-thoughts-on-game-7-round-2-flames-lines-apr-25/

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