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End-of-season medal predictions

Brownlow Medal Winner: Tom Green (GWS Giants) Runners-Up (in alphabetical order): Noah Anderson (Gold Coast Suns) Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs) Nick Daicos (Collingwood) Jordan De Goey (Collingwood) Errol Gulden (Sydney Swans) Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions) Christian Petracca (Melbourne) Connor Rozee (Port Adelaide) Sam Walsh (Carlton)

Coleman Medal Winner: Jeremy Cameron (Geelong Cats) Runners-Up (in alphabetical order): Oscar Allen (West Coast Eagles) Charlie Cameron (Brisbane Lions) Charlie Curnow (Carlton) Joe Daniher (Brisbane Lions) Toby Greene (GWS Giants) Ben King (Gold Coast Suns) Nick Larkey (North Melbourne) Jack Lukosius (Gold Coast Suns) Aaron Naughton (Western Bulldogs)

Rising Star Winner: Colby McKercher (North Melbourne) Runners-Up (in alphabetical order): Henry Hustwaite (Hawthorn) Harley Reid (West Coast Eagles) Ryley Sanders (Western Bulldogs) Jed Walter (Gold Coast Suns)

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Season previews: Brisbane Lions (1st)

Last season: 2nd (17 wins, 6 losses, 123.1%), 2nd after finals Notable ins: Tom Doedee (Adelaide) Notable outs: Daniel Rich (retired), Marcus Adams (retired), Jack Gunston (Hawthorn)

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Season previews: GWS Giants (2nd)

Last season: 7th (13 wins, 10 losses, 107.1%), 3rd after finals Notable ins: N/A Notable outs: Daniel Lloyd (retired), Matthew Flynn (West Coast), Phil Davis (retired)

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Season previews: Collingwood (3rd)

Last season: 1st (18 wins, 5 losses, 127.0%), 1st after finals Notable ins: Lachie Schultz (Fremantle) Notable outs: Taylor Adams (Sydney), Jack Ginnivan (Hawthorn)

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Season previews: Sydney Swans (4th)

Last season: 8th (12 wins, 10 losses, 1 draw, 110.0%), 7th after finals Notable ins: Brodie Grundy (Melbourne), Taylor Adams (Collingwood), James Jordon (Melbourne) Notable outs: Lance Franklin (retired), Tom Hickey (retired), Dylan Stephens (North Melbourne)

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Season previews: Adelaide Crows (5th)

Last season: 10th (11 wins, 12 losses, 116.8%) Notable ins: Daniel Curtin (no. 8 draft pick) Notable outs: Tom Doedee (Brisbane), Shane McAdam (Melbourne)

Melbourne in 2021. Collingwood in 2022. Port Adelaide in 2023 (plus, after finals, Carlton and GWS). Each year there is usually at least one side that rockets from outside the eight and into the top four. Have stopped just short of that for Adelaide in 2024 but expect them to take another step forward after finishing 14th two seasons ago to then being cruelly denied a finals spot last season. Many will point to the goal umpiring debacle in round 23 against Sydney as costing them (the AFL should be grateful their score review system doesn't also get a pre-season write up). That view wouldn't be wrong but including that game, the Crows played in six matches decided by a goal or less and went 1-5. If they go 3-3, they're in September. Flip it to 5-1 and they're looking at a potential double chance.

Adelaide are not quite yet the complete package - their midfield can lack unpredictability, they are leaky defensively and there is a question mark on the coach. But they have more going for them than not, playing an exciting brand of footy that moves the ball up the ground with risk and dare, and they can kick a winning score. Look for that to continue to be an indicator of success in 2024. The AFL want the game to open up and they tend to get what they want. Adelaide don't play boring football and were no. 1 in the competition for scoring last season.

The downside of playing electric football on offence is that the defence can suffer. Under Matthew Nicks' four seasons in charge, Adelaide have gone 18th, 16th, 15th and 10th for points against. Steady improvement, yes, and they were a very ordinary side when he arrived but the evidence says he is yet to instill an all-of-team defensive mindset. Sides in the premiership window tend to be as good at stopping goals as they are kicking them and Adelaide have have only unlocked one piece of the puzzle. That side of their game will be something to watch for, particularly as the board make a decision on Nicks' contract which expires at the end of the year. They should wait and at least see how a majority of the season plays out and not buy in to the myth of re-signing the coach early to avoid distraction. It may be harsh on Nicks but it is difficult to imagine a rival club falling over themselves to sign him if Adelaide dither a little.

The positive is that as opposed to their cross-town rivals, Port Adelaide, the Crows' veterans look a little fresher and better placed to complement their young guns. Rory Laird, Brad Crouch, Taylor Walker and even Rory Sloane are still playing good football. Walker especially has defied the odds to, at age 33, be playing close to the best football of his career. And they will need him to keep it going a little longer as the next generation of key forward at Adelaide is not so well advanced - neither Riley Thilthorpe nor Darcy Fogarty have yet proven capable of being the main man. There has been some commentary that it is time for Walker to play a reduced role and allow that to happen but you would rather see Thilthorpe and/or Fogarty go and take the mantle from him themselves. There is no such concern over the Crows' small forward stocks with Izak Rankine and Josh Rachele nipping at the heels of Walker and co.

Nicks has been afforded a considerable grace period up to this point given where the club was at when he arrived in 2020. He has done a commendable job to lift them out of the mess left behind by their infamous pre-season camp but that was six years ago now and it's time for them to return to playing in September. The Crows will be a headache for many clubs to contend with in 2024 if they can tighten up across the ground defensively (particularly coming out of the middle), shave a goal or two from the opposition each week and maintain their own high scoring output.

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Season previews: Melbourne (6th)

Last season: 4th (16 wins, 7 losses, 125.2%), 5th after finals Notable ins: Jack Billings (St Kilda), Caleb Windsor (no. 7 draft pick), Tom Fullarton (Brisbane) Notable outs: Angus Brayshaw (retired), Brodie Grundy (Sydney), James Harmes (Western Bulldogs)

All eyes are on Melbourne in 2024. Take any one of the burning questions surrounding the Demons and it would be enough to fill the back (or front) page of the paper and keep talkback radio lines busy for a day. Add them all together and it means there is no more fascinating team heading into the season. With their backs against the wall, Melbourne could rediscover the form that led to success in 2021 and win a flag for the ages. Or under the weight of scandal and scrutiny, they could fall right apart and tumble out of the eight. Placing the Demons at 6th is having a bet each way but until we see if they can put the summer from Hell behind them and play some football, it's hard to take a bold stance in either direction.

What happens if Max Gawn gets injured? It would not be lost on Melbourne that we fret over who backs up the big man now, when less than 12 months ago debate raged over how they could possibly have Gawn and Grundy in the same team. The Grundy experiment failed: he finished last season playing for Casey and will start the new one with Sydney. The dilemma is that Gawn is at his best when he rucks solo and if he is playing, only needs pinch-hitters that can perform other duties. A quality ruckman recruited to wait in the wings would be no happier playing in the VFL than Grundy was, so the best they could get last trade period was Fullarton (19 games in five years). Grundy may not have been the solution the rest of the season but Melbourne sure seemed happy to have him when Gawn went down with a knee injury last year. The Dees won three of the four games he missed. Will their on-ball division fare so well this time using a ruckman cobbled together from spare parts?

Can the Demons fix their forwardline woes? They are the complete package down back and through the middle but goals were simply too hard to come by in 2023. They kicked just sixteen goals across both finals and lost those games by a combined nine points. The ball use going inside 50 was haphazard, sent to the boundary in areas not dangerous to the opposition or bombed over the heads of their forwards. A powerful key forward would help but plenty of teams have found goals by using system to overcome a lack of personnel. The positive is that Melbourne have spent an off-season clear on what they have to work with and what they do not, so should come in with a better plan of attack.

Where is Clayon Oliver's football at? Oliver's career had been near-flawless right up until the moment he suffered a hamstring in round 10, 2023. Probably the best pure midfielder in the game, his CV at 26 already contains four best and fairests, three All-Australian selections, two AFLCA Player of the Year awards and a premiership medallion. He was on track for a Brownlow medal and had probably only been denied one already by sharing votes with Gawn and Christian Petracca. If personal issues had at all been a factor for Oliver prior to last year, it had been impossible to tell on the field. The last six months though have been shaped by concerns over fitness, innuendo around "lifestyle choices" and mental health, briefly finding himself on the trade table and then spending most of the summer training away from the main group… all before his seven-year multi-million dollar deal even officially started. Reports are that Oliver is now back in the fold and available for Opening Round, which is a positive for both club and player. They badly need his brilliant best and he needs the distraction football brings, as it was only when injury took that away that the rest of his world started to fall apart.

Is there a drug culture at Melbourne? The answer at times feels like a version of the Narcissist's Prayer: "No there isn't. And if there is, it's not that bad. And if it is, it's not a big deal. And if it is, that's society's fault. Oh and by the way, every other club has one too." The coach, Simon Goodwin, says there isn't one but will admit to challenges. Their captain's proof there isn’t was hair-testing reports he has probably never seen, bringing to mind Sergeant Schultz. And CEO Gary Pert says that this side has the best culture he's ever seen in football (not the highest bar given Pert's previous role was at Collingwood during the hard-partying 'Rat Park' era and the period of time captured in the 'Do Better' report). They may well all be right. But the facts are that Melbourne are the only club with a player stupid enough to test positive to cocaine on game day then be found with text messages on his phone asking an unspecified number of teammates if they'd like to buy drugs from him. As for the coach himself, it is hard to recall a figure in football that's had to deny as many rumours of illicit drug use as he. Many are just fictions spread on social media but at least one source is Glenn Bartlett, their former president. Bartlett has an axe to grind with the club but it's hard to believe he would simply invent tales of such nature.

Winning papers over a lot of cracks and the Demons would love to start the season strongly to quiet the noise. But they are close to breaking point and cannot afford any more negative headlines. Melbourne will be praying for no further damaging revelations to emerge from Joel Smith's case at SIA, Oliver to keep his head down and some early wins (they have a tricky opening schedule with Sydney, Port Adelaide and Adelaide away and easier-beats Hawthorn and Bulldogs at home). Despite the public denials, one hopes that Melbourne take issues with their culture more seriously internally. If heads stay in the sand there much longer, then heads will roll.

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Season previews: Geelong Cats (7th)

Last season: 12th (10 wins, 12 losses, 1 draw, 112.6%) Notable ins: Shaun Mannagh (no. 36 draft pick), Connor O’Sullivan (no. 11 draft pick) Notable outs: Esava Ratugolea (Port Adelaide), Isaac Smith (retired)

Geelong’s premiership defence failed to ever properly launch in 2023. On the back foot from the beginning with three losses to start the season and with a steady stream of injuries unsettling them, their form fluctuated throughout the year before they eventually found themselves not playing finals for only the second time since 2007. It speaks to Geelong’s consistency over a long period of time that after such an indifferent campaign, there was still a sense of disbelief when they were finally knocked out for good by St Kilda in round 23.

Geelong’s continued defiance of the AFL’s equalisation measures means the belief they can rise up the ladder again is mainly based on the fact that that is what they always do. In a competition with caps on player salaries and football department spending, free agency compensation and a national draft, it is not meant to be possible to qualify for finals in 14 out of 16 seasons. Yet they have and the smart money says they will find a way to do it again. The math is simple: win 13 games and between their Geelong home ground fortress and the number of poor teams in the league, that should be within their capabilities.

Beyond qualifying for the post-season however, it is harder to chart a path for more success in September. Injuries upset them last year but with half of their best side aged 30 or over and not getting any younger, that could well happen again. The next generation coming through is not quite good enough yet to cover for significant injuries to any of Jeremy Cameron, Tom Stewart, Patrick Dangerfield or Tom Hawkins. Geelong’s 2022 flag was based on a lot going right in the medical room and if they get a charmed run again, the possibilities are endless. That is an increasingly big if - Father Time remains undefeated.

Chris Scott, despite what some Geelong fans will tell you, is a very good coach and will have spent a longer than usual off-season tweaking his game plan to suit the bodies at his disposal. He has a dual mandate to win as many games as possible this year (they won't waste the twilight years of Dangerfield and Hawkins if they can help it) but also continue to blood youngsters. Tanner Bruhn, Oliver Dempsey, Toby Conway and Jhye Clark are some of the names that should be seen more often than old favourites like Zach Tuohy, Gary Rohan and Rhys Stanley. If Scott is brave enough to move out of his comfort zone at selection, Geelong will be a better side for it in the years ahead and maybe also in the now. 

It does feel as though 2022 was the end of an era more than it was the middle of one. A re-invention that had begun in earnest with the recruitment of Dangerfield yielded four preliminary final losses and one Grand Final loss before finally finding that elusive premiership. It is not in the Cats’ nature to bottom out and they are probably in the midst of a period similar to their 2012 to 2015 run where they continued to hang around the mark as they turned over the list. But Geelong are not far removed from their premiership-best and if they find themselves playing in September and the stars align, perhaps a second fairytale finish beckons for their old guard.

The summer from Hell can't end soon enough, next up is Melbourne...

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Season previews: Carlton (8th)

Last season: 5th (13 wins, 9 losses, 1 draw, 113.3%), 4th after finals Notable ins: Elijah Hollands (Gold Coast) Notable outs: Zac Fisher (North Melbourne), Paddy Dow (St Kilda), Ed Curnow (retired)

Which is the real Carlton? The side severely underperforming mid-way through Michael Voss’ second year in charge, languishing in 15th spot on the ladder and feeling the ire of a furious fan base? Or the one taking the competition by storm at season’s end, winning 11 of their last 13 games and only falling short against Brisbane in a preliminary final? Belief is now sky-high again on the back of that fairytale run and the Blues are tipped by many to challenge for the flag. But it is also possible the truth could land somewhere in between Carlton’s split personality of 2023.

The big test is how Carlton this time handle the weight of expectation and it's one they have failed repeatedly in recent times. In 2022, a spot in the eight was theirs to lose and lose it they did. Four straight losses to finish that season saw them miss the finals by a percentage of just 0.6%. And when it was assumed they would be hardened by that experience, the Blues went the other way and looked a shell of themselves to start last year. Yes, they turned it around but only after being completely written off after being so awful and were playing with house money, every win a bonus. Take even that preliminary final - Brisbane were the better side but Carlton kicked the first five goals of the game before coughing up control.

The truth is that they are a significantly better the side than the one that failed to find connection early last season and they should certainly not regress back to that place again. Charlie Curnow is the reigning dual Coleman-medallist, an imposing figure up forward. Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh and Adam Cerra lead an A-grade midfield. And Jacob Weitering is an elite full-back, skipping the flashy stuff to just get the job done on the opposition’s best forward every week. Any side with all of them up and about will win more games than they lose.

There is more talent than that on the list but not all are quite as dependable. Mitch McGovern, Jack Martin and Zac Williams were all recruited in previous years on big money and all have been massive disappointments relative to their pay packets. Harry McKay partners Curnow in the forward line but since winning a Coleman of his own in 2021, has struggled badly with accuracy. There were moments last year when he seemed to epitomise his entire club’s psychological state, all at sea and completely devoid of confidence. Some of his misses had to be seen to be believed.

Anything is indeed possible at Carlton this season: something remarkable, certainly, but also the unremarkable. In their first 14 scheduled games, Carlton are slated to play seven Thursday or Friday night games. If they pick up where they left off and start well, the Blues will rival Collingwood as the hottest ticket in town. If it goes the other way the AFL will face a scheduling nightmare and the knives, always ready to be sharpened at Carlton, won’t stay stored away for long.

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Season previews: Port Adelaide (9th)

Last season: 3rd (17 wins, 6 losses, 112.7%), 6th after finals Notable ins: Esava Ratugolea (Geelong), Brandon Zerk-Thatcher (Essendon), Ivan Soldo (Richmond) Notable outs: Xavier Duursma (Essendon), Tom Jonas (retired), Scott Lycett (retired)

The real deal or pretenders? It is a query that has increasingly loomed large over Ken Hinkley's tenure as Port Adelaide coach. A Rorscach test, its appearance maybe telling you something about your football psychology. On the one hand, the Power have mostly been a good to very good side under Hinkley and never been a terrible one. Since 2013 their lowest finish on the ladder has been 11th place, they boast a win rate of 60.6%, have made the finals six times and a preliminary final three times. A few clubs would probably kill right now for even one season as good as Hinkley's worst effort. On the other hand, Port are in the business of winning premierships and they have lost all of those preliminary finals. No coach in VFL/AFL history has gone so long without a Grand Final appearance.

Hinkley looked at long odds to keep his job entering last season. Supporters' appreciation for his lifting them out of the doldrums a decade ago had expired and they were beyond restless after missing the eight in 2022. The president, David Koch, waffled on his chances of getting a new deal. An agreement was reached between club and coach where his contract status, due to expire at the end of the year, would not be reviewed until August. This would force a decision before finals so was a curious compromise given the major frustration with Hinkley was a lack of results in September. Did the board, expecting another lowly finish but wanting to avoid a bitter falling out, set a date that would allow them to respectfully end Hinkley's tenure only after being seen to give him a fighting chance? If they did, they didn't count on him to flip the script. Hinkley's men rattled off 13 straight wins from rounds 4-17 and when D-Day arrived on August 1st, they were sitting second on the ladder. Checkmate, 'Kochie' - Hinkley was given a two-year contract extension.

Losses to Brisbane and GWS in the finals however meant a straight-sets exit and one that probably matched their reality, a step off the pace amongst the other also-rans. It gave Port Adelaide some solace that it was the next generation in Zak Butters, Connor Rozee and Jason Corne-Francis consistently leading the way. That trio will be their engine room for the next decade but the Power were often too reliant on them and experienced veterans did not help shoulder the load. The likes of Lycett, Ollie Wines, Travis Boak, Trent McKenzie and Charlie Dixon were all looking tired, sore and old by September. Their captain, Tom Jonas, wasn't there at all having been relegated to the SANFL mid-season.

Port Adelaide attacked the trade period to try and address some of these problems. Their midfield needed someone to tap it to them with Lycett retiring and they targeted Soldo, a solid ruckman who struggled for opportunity at Richmond, and Jordon Sweet as back-up. There are questions over whether Ratugolea and Zerk-Thatcher are the right fit for Port Adelaide's backline alongside Aliir but their recruitment at least means 191cm McKenzie won't again be left manning the Tom Hawkins of the world. Ratugolea has size, strength and athleticism but can be a liability to teammates as he crashes packs to try and mark or spoil with limited situational awareness. Zerk-Thatcher conceded 53 goals in 2023, the most of any defender in the AFL, and Essendon were ultimately comfortable losing him. Port Adelaide did not add to their forward line but would be looking for Todd Marshall and Ollie Lord to take the next steps in their respective development.

The hope at Alberton is that they can wring one more good year out of Boak, Dixon and Wines just as their young guns continue to rise and take the mantle. If their form from around mid-July through the end of the season is any indication, the timing for this is not quite right. The immediate pressure is off Hinkley with his extension but Josh Carr waits in the wings, seemingly brought to Port under an informal succession plan. It's all smiles between the two for now but this has gone south quickly elsewhere. When egos collide and the coaches disagree, the players are torn - do you listen to the guy that might be on his way out the door or the one next in line to succeed him? Getting off to a good start will be crucial, their first five games all winnable playing West Coast, Melbourne, Essendon and Fremantle at home and Richmond away. But start the season like they finished the last one and the pressure rises quickly again.

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Season previews: Western Bulldogs (10th)

Last season: 9th (12 wins, 11 losses, 108.7%) Notable ins: Ryley Sanders (no. 6 draft pick), James Harmes (Melbourne), Nick Coffield (St Kilda) Notable outs: Josh Bruce (retired)

The Bulldogs 2016 premiership was at the time likened to Hawthorn's of 2008 - a young side on the rise that arrived early to kick off a potential dynasty ahead of when anyone expected. The comparison was further cemented when, like Hawthorn in 2009, the Bulldogs missed the eight the next season. Where the similarities now end is that seven years later, there has not been a second successful chapter in this era at Footscray (let alone a third and fourth). Besides that 2016 flag, the balance of coach Luke Beveridge's tenure has been one Grand Final loss, four elimination-final losses and three years missing the finals altogether. In his nine home-and-away seasons, they have not once finished inside the top four.

The tough question arrived at the end of another middling 2023 season: has Beveridge outstayed his welcome? The answer we got from the board was unconvincing. Immediately complicating matters was that less than 12 months earlier, Beveridge had been handed a two-year contract extension amid (real or imagined) interest in the coach from other clubs and he was now tied to the Bulldogs until the end of 2025. Sacking Beveridge wasn't an option because even if his pay-out clause was favourable to the club, it would mean the board admitting to a big mistake and they are loathe to do that lest they be voted out themselves. So it was time to break glass in case of emergency and announce a review. One review became two reviews when the first wasn't deemed sufficient and a summer of football department upheaval unsettled nearly everyone except the coach and the footy boss, Chris Grant. Beveridge and his Bulldogs now enter a new year under a cloud of tensions and doubt.

10th place is at the lower end of their conceivable ladder range in 2024 (barring complete catastrophe). The list is certainly better than that, not quite among the very best in the competition but with good players across every line. They have Tim English, the number one ruckman in the league, and they have Marcus Bontempelli, regarded by many as the number one player full stop. In fact there are five All-Australians on the list. Their key forward, Aaron Naughton, has just signed a massive eight-year contract and a similarly huge deal beckons for Jamarra Ugle-Hagan. And the Bulldogs are healthy with the exception of Bailey Smith, out for the season with an ACL, but he was at sea last year and doing finer work in underwear advertisements than on the football field.

So there is talent at the Kennel but there was talent last year and the year before that. The problem has been playing a consistent brand of football over a meaningful period of time, without wild fluctuations and radical selection changes at the drop of a hat. Beveridge is an emotional coach and only sometimes a very effective one. It was an extraordinary achievement for him to lead them to that premiership in 2016 and then back to a Grand Final in 2021. During those games, the players looked as if they would run through walls for their coach and there is skill in knowing which buttons to push to achieve that result. The problem arises when after nearly a decade in charge, you are reaching so far into your bag of tricks to get a reaction that analogies to Che Guevara are coming out at the season launch. The mind games stop working and there isn't a system and method to fall back on, the players are running around in circles, racking up possessions but not goals and then… you are losing to West Coast at home in round 23 and your season is over.

Another year out of the finals would be a disaster. English is out of contract and has no shortage of potential suitors to convince him more success lies elsewhere. Bontempelli is 28 and though far from the twilight of his career, would be thinking on his legacy and wondering if he will ever add another premiership to his CV here. The powers that be have made the not-so-bold gambit of sticking fat with the coach and adding some new voices to his staff. If it doesn't work, the question will come again: has Beveridge outstayed his welcome? The answer this time would be far more obvious and the consequences far wider reaching.

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Season previews: Gold Coast Suns (11th)

Last season: 15th (9 wins, 14 losses, 91.7%) Notable ins: Jed Walter (no. 3 draft pick) Notable outs: Mabior Chol (Hawthorn), Elijah Hollands (Carlton)

Is it too harsh to say that Gold Coast’s greatest contribution in their history is the extra game they tack on to the AFL’s multi-billion dollar broadcast deal? The other 17 teams might disagree only on the basis that the Suns occasionally act as a stud farm for grabbing established players to top up their own lists. The Suns year-after-year rank last in memberships, game attendances, TV ratings and the less scientific measure of ‘care factor.’  This is the landscape that confronts Damien Hardwick, their new coach who is not at all accustomed to operating off-Broadway. Does he see a realistic path to turning it around or, after achieving all there is to achieve at Richmond, is this a six-year mission in boosting his own superannuation balance?

‘Dimma’ famously said at his grand unveiling that 80% of their premiership list was already in place. Let’s go with him for a second and engage in the thought experiment: if you were to describe a Grand Final winning side, what would it look like? An above-average ruckman (Jarrod Witts), hard-nosed midfielders (Matt Rowell, Touk Miller), damaging ball-users (Noah Anderson, Ben Ainsworth, Lachie Weller), rock-solid defenders (Sam Collins, Charlie Ballard), a dominant key forward or two (Ben King and perhaps Walter) and some genuine X-factor (Jack Lukosuis, Bailey Humphrey). The math might not quite work out but we can at least follow the logic of Hardwick’s big call.

The new coach’s biggest challenge will be overcoming a culture of irrelevance. The Suns have never placed higher than 12th on the ladder and their best season is still a “what if?” scenario where Gary Ablett Jr busted his shoulder (that was ten years and four coaches ago). Attempts at responsible list management have been undone by stars wanting out, unproven youngsters being paid insane sums to stay and recruits signed to deals well above market rates to deign to play for the league’s consistently worst side. This post would well exceed its word limit if it went through every instance of these but take one: Rory Atkins was bizarrely offered a five-year contract to leave Adelaide in 2020 and has since played most of his football in the seconds.

All that aside, Hardwick should be backed in to improve the Gold Coast Suns. He is an excellent coach who came into a Richmond side that was all those years ago on its knees and we know what happened next. There is plenty of talent on a list that is crying out to be matched with a winning game plan and mentality. Expect an adjustment period but the Suns sleep-walked their way to nine wins last year and can be relied upon to do at least marginally better this season. Don’t bet your hard-earned money on it just yet but look forward to more than that in 2025 and beyond.

A star's legacy is at stake as a coach outstays his welcome, next up is the Western Bulldogs...

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Season previews: Essendon (12th)

Last season: 11th (11 wins, 12 losses, 89.7%) Notable ins: Ben McKay (North Melbourne), Xavier Duursma (Port Adelaide), Jade Gresham (St Kilda) Notable outs: Brandon Zerk-Thatcher (Port Adelaide), Andrew Phillips (retired), Massimo D'Ambrosio (Hawthorn)

11 June, 2023. Essendon have just beaten - no - embarrassed Carlton in a King's Birthday Eve blockbuster in front of 83,000 fans and set against the backdrop of a premiership reunion for the famous 1993 "Baby Bombers." The 34-point margin does do not justice to the way Essendon monstered the Blues. Carlton were out-pressured, out-worked and out-classed, kicking just six goals and laying only 34 tackles. Michael Voss is under extraordinary pressure and looks at long odds to keep his job as Blues fans bay for blood. Essendon on the other hand head into the bye sitting in sixth position on the ladder and rising on the back of four consecutive wins. A top-eight finish seems likely, perhaps at last that elusive finals win and maybe even more.

Jump foward eight months to now and this feels like a dispatch from an alternate universe. It was Carlton that played in and won two finals. Michael Voss is out of the hot seat and has secured a two-year contract extension. And it is Essendon that entered another off-season searching for answers on what went so wrong. From that night in June they yo-yoed around, alternating between poor performances against sides they should have been roughly equal to, brave efforts in honourable losses and precisely one win. Despite their collapse, the Bombers were somehow still in the finals hunt with four games left. Alarm bells were ringing when they were lucky to beat the two bottom sides, both of whom had gone so long without winning they forgot how to ice games they could have won. Yet Essendon’s season remained alive heading into a round 23 clash with GWS, also fighting for their life and one spot below the Bombers on the ladder. The eight beckons for the winner, lights out for the loser.

GWS beat Essendon by 126 points that day and went on to finish the regular season four spots and 17.4 percentage points higher than the Bombers, ultimately falling one point short of a Grand Final appearance. The football world fell in love with how Adam Kingsley came in to the Giants and quickly instilled a winning mentality, playing with both joy and a hard steely edge. Kingsley’s family would right now be grieving an untimely death due to stress ball poisoning if he had landed at Essendon instead. The Bombers capitulated the next week and only kicked three goals against Collingwood, spared a defeat greater than the 70-point loss they did cop because the Magpies put the cue in the rack at half-time. They had bigger fish to fry than these pretenders.

There is no shortage of pundits that expect this to be the year the Bombers pull it together and climb up the ladder, as there are every year. Their reasonings range from sound logic (Brad Scott is at worst a very competent coach and there is talent on this list) to blind optimism (Essendon is a big Victorian club and the competition is at its best when they are all playing well and Jake Stringer is in a contract year). The alternate view is that the best indicator of future performance is past performance. On that measure for more than a decade, at least since they were humbled by the drugs saga and in truth for some time before that, Essendon have underperformed and thus will most likely continue to do so. Since the league expanded in 2011, only Gold Coast, Carlton, North Melbourne and St Kilda have won less games and only the Suns have won the same number of finals (zero). 

There is little value in running the rule over Essendon’s off-season recruits, their likely best 22, their first five games of the season or their run home. When the chips are down, Scott will have no recent history to point to of this side doing the hard thing and fighting against the odds. You will find many who concoct again a reason for that to change in 2024. They would be better served by recalling the definition of insanity. 

Sunny days are ahead but not just yet, next up is Gold Coast...

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Season previews: St Kilda (13th)

Last season: 6th (13 wins, 10 losses, 107.8%), 8th after finals Notable ins: Liam Henry (Fremantle), Paddy Dow (Carlton), Riley Bonner (pre-season draft) Notable outs: Jade Gresham (Essendon), Jack Billings (Melbourne), Nick Coffield (Western Bulldogs)

At first glance, Ross Lyon's return to St Kilda could hardly have gone better. Off the back of a 5-1 start (their only loss coming by a goal to the eventual premiers), the Saints returned to the finals after years in the footy wilderness. Following his brief time in the media, Lyon is no longer miserable and dour but has been rebranded as a funnier, cuddlier version of 'Ross the Boss'. A posse of old favourites in Brendon Goddard, Robert Harvey and Lenny Hayes surround the coach and the Saints are relevant again for the first time really since his initial stint ended over a decade ago. They proved the doubters wrong last season and the general consensus now seems to say that St Kilda will finish in the top eight again and aim to go one better by winning a final in 2024.

Fuelling that belief is an impressive crop of youngsters whose progression the Saints will be hoping drive them forward. There is Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and Marcus Windhager off half-back, Matteas Phillipou and Mitch Owens in the forward line, and they are now joined by Henry on a wing. As for more established players, Callum Wilkie and Jack Sinclair won All-Australian selection leading a solid back six that will benefit from another pre-season learning Lyon's defensive philosophies together. Rowan Marshall was unlucky to miss out on a blazer of his own, arguably the premier ruckman of the competion at stages. Max King would be aiming to shake off a year impacted by shoulder injury (he still managed 28 goals from 11 games) and finally unleash his full potential after only hovering around the tip of the supposed iceberg so far. Jack Steele played 21 games but appeared to be labouring from injury at times and will look to return to his damaging best.

The counter-narrative to all that rosy optimism can be found by drilling a little deeper into St Kilda's last season, specifically after that barnstorming start. There was a feeling as the year wore on that rather than being firmly ensconced in the eight, the Saints were barely hanging on to their spot. In those 18 games, their record went eight wins and ten losses with just two of those victories coming against fellow finallists. For fans hoping 'Ross 2.0' would embrace a higher-scoring brand of football, bad news: only five times did the Saints post a better score than the 2023 league average of 83 points per game. In fact at season's end, St Kilda had outscored three teams (Hawthorn, North Melbourne and West Coast). Lyon's staple, the stingy defence, was however back at Moorabin to combat this and none was stingier than theirs.

It may well be that Lyon did look to find more goals in his return to the Saints but has lacked the personnel and capability on-field to do so. Attacking entries were frequently uninspired and rarely to the advantage of their forwards, who ranked dead-last in the competition for scoring from inside 50s. St Kilda's centre rotation led by Steele, Brad Crouch and Seb Ross are all dependable ball-winners but lack class and quality disposal. They don't grow on trees but the Saints missed a trick not using the free agency and trade period to find a player or two that can spread from the contest and deliver the ball to King and company with more creativity. Henry operates further on the outside and Dow struggled for opportunity and was ultimately unwanted at Carlton for a reason.

Expect year two under 'Ross' to come with more pain than his first season back in charge. There are deficiencies on the list and when the defence gets picked apart as it was by GWS in the elimination final, the forward line will struggle to counter-punch. Lyon will be content to play the long game, establishing the side's identity for now and look to plug any gaping holes in a future off-season. That is a comfort that comes with being a Messiah-figure contracted for three more years who has, after the return of his disciples and the ousting of Simon Lethlean as CEO, few voices at the club to tell him otherwise.

Expect more of the same from the red and black, next up is Essendon...

[thebehindpost]

Season previews: Richmond (14th)

Last season: 13th (10 wins, 12 losses, 1 draw, 93.6%) Notable ins: Jacob Koschitzke (Hawthorn) Notable outs: Trent Cotchin (retired), Jack Riewoldt (retired), Ivan Soldo (Port Adelaide)

When Damien Hardwick announced he was stepping down as coach of Richmond, their formline to that point of the season was three wins from ten games and they had just suffered the indignity of a loss to old rivals, Essendon. In his exit speech, he was gracious enough to suggest it was not the players but he and his coaching that had grown tired and stale (said with a casualness only a man that already had his next job lined up could muster). Setting aside conspiracy theories about when he first made contact with the Suns, Hardwick had clearly surveyed the sausages left at his disposal and determined it was they that were cooked.

Winning three flags eventually took a toll on the club's list as superstars aged and were rightly afforded the opportunity to play a season too long, the salary cap started to bulge and the trade moves required to keep the premiership window open had clogged the incoming pipeline of elite youngsters. Near the midpoint of the 2023 season it was clear that window was now firmly shut and while there is still enough talent at Punt Road to avoid a long and painful rebuild, a significant retooling at least is required. So - perhaps thinking of the way Alastair Clarkson was run out of town at Hawthorn, his volatile nature quickly starting to grate when the wins dried up - Hardwick jumped well before he might be pushed.

Richmond appear to be clear on where they are at heading into the new season. There may be some lingering regret over paying three first-round draft picks for Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper, a decision made at a time they were perhaps being less realistic. But attention now has turned to list regeneration with their trade period moves, largely bypassing the so-so 2023 draft class to amass a bevy of selections in 2024 (in addition to holding all of their own, they have added an additional second-, two third- and two fourth-round picks and will seek to add more later this year). The exits of Cotchin and Riewoldt were respectfully managed. They opted for an entirely fresh voice in Adam Yze as coach over the sense of continuity longserving assistant then interim, Andrew McQualter, would have signalled. One eye is firmly on the road ahead but it would not be consistent with the culture at Tigerland today to bottom out and they would still love to win enough games to sneak into September or more realistically break even with last year's result. Consider this a rebuild on the run, attempting to turn over the list whilst remaining relevant, perhaps even quickly enough to capitalise on the mature talent still remaining.

Of that older group, Dustin Martin is 32 with a year left on his contract but has more good football than that left in him if he wants it. You suspect he is swayed to join Hardwick at Gold Coast but will wait and see if his old coach quickly finds the magic there and then decide where he is most likely to play finals in 2025. Tom Lynch at 31 is younger but his longevity less assured. Despite carrying some injury concerns when he arrived from Gold Coast, Lynch had managed to stay mostly on the park during his Tiger tenure and importantly was there when it mattered in finals and Grand Finals. However he has now not been sighted since round 4 last year and still does not have a return date for this season, already ruled out of Opening Round. Dion Prestia, also 31, has a long history of soft-tissue injuries. Dylan Grimes, Marlion Pickett, Nathan Broad, Kamdyn McIntosh, Nick Vlastuin and Toby Nankervis make up the rest of the group that will be aged 30-plus before the end of this season but all managed to play the majority of their available games in 2023. Taranto, Hopper, Daniel Rioli, Liam Baker and Shai Bolton will all comfortably be a part of Richmond's next flag push if they can prise the window back open within the next three to four years.

As for Richmond's prospects right now, it is easier to find the potential triggers for a decline than for an improvement this season. After 13.5 years of 'Dimma' there will be growing pains as the side adapts to whatever new ideas Yze brings to the role. Goals will be hard to come by if Lynch is unavailable and they are left to rely for key forwards on Noah Balta (who has played most of his career as a defender) and Koschitzke (the recruit has kicked 54 goals from his 48 games). This is likely to be a year of transition for the Tigers with a few hazards to navigate. They will take their lumps this season when they have to and if it ever gets too depressing, can stroll to the trophy cabinet and remember better days.

How badly will it hurt if the Saints fall from heaven? Next up is St Kilda…

[thebehindpost]

Season previews: Fremantle (15th)

Last season: 14th (10 wins, 13 losses, 96.7%) Notable ins: N/A Notable outs: Lachie Schultz (Collingwood), Liam Henry (St Kilda), Joel Hamlin (Sydney)

Was reaching a semi-final in 2022 a flash in the pan? Or was a disappointing 14th-placed finish the next season just an unfortunate dip on their way to improving again in 2024? Was their boring style, based on slow play from the back half and devoid of dare, setting the foundations on which to eventually build a successful game plan? Or is the coach out of step with the way sides like last year’s premiers satisfied and reaped the rewards of the AFL’s stated ambition to open the game up and play an attractive brand of football? These are the questions that would keep decision makers at Fremantle up at night.

Of immediate concern was a failure to capitalise on their home ground advantage, just three wins and seven losses against teams not named the West Coast Eagles, and a two win and five loss start from the first seven games. A purple patch (excuse the pun) mid-season eventually gave way to an indifferent finish to the year. They beat only two sides all year that finished in the top eight.

Fremantle have outstanding ball winners in Caleb Serong and Andrew Brayshaw, joined by Hayden Young as the season wore on, and they continue to live in hope that Nat Fyfe can return to something nearing his Brownlow best. That seems increasingly farfetched at age 32 and with a significant injury history. Photos of Fyfe’s bulging muscles and ripped physique each pre-season are beginning to reach the level of the NBA’s Ben Simmons practising three-point shots in an empty gym - tantalising but unlikely to materialise into anything meaningful once the going gets tough.

Across the rest of the field, there are too many gaping holes. They are still missing a dominant key forward. Both Luke Jackson and Sean Darcy are much better ruckmen than they are forwards and the tandem effort was largely ineffective in their first season playing together. Serious consideration should have been given to trading Darcy and allowing Jackson to be the number one ruck, a position he looks far more capable of breaking the game open in. Alex Pearce holds down full-back and as captain is presumably a great clubman but played a number of poor games throughout the year (although he deserves credit for a match winning effort against Geelong in round 20).

It is difficult to see where Fremantle’s improvement comes from in 2024, given they did not add anyone of note in the trade period and their highest draft pick was at 35. Henry and Schultz, two players that do possess attacking flair, were ones they should not have allowed themselves to lose given their deficiency in that area. The future of Justin Longmuir, out of contract at the end of the season, will naturally be a topic of conversation and potentially a real distraction if they start the year anything like they did in 2023.

It’s time for transition at Tigerland, next up is Richmond…

[thebehindpost]

Season previews: Hawthorn (16th)

Last season: 16th (7 wins, 16 losses, 80.2%) Notable ins: Jack Ginnivan (Collingwood), Mabior Chol (Gold Coast), Nick Watson (no. 5 draft pick) Notable outs: Tyler Brockman (West Coast), Jacob Koschitzke (Richmond), Brandon Ryan (Brisbane)

The placement of Hawthorn at 16th in a 2024 ladder prediction comes with an understanding that it is unlikely to happen (actually, very few of these are likely to happen given the success of most attempts at using the crystal ball). It is not unheard of but very rare for the same three teams to occupy the bottom three spots in consecutive years, particularly in a modern 18-team competition replete with “equalisation” measures. It last happened when GWS, Melbourne and St Kilda managed the feat in 2013 and 2014. Gold Coast, Brisbane and Carlton were there in 2015, didn’t collectively back it up the following year but were all there again in 2017 (somehow this feels even crueller). So there is considerable precedent for at least one of West Coast, North Melbourne and Hawthorn to make a rise up the ladder and it feels harshest on the Hawks to not tip them to do it. 

That being said, has there ever been such positivity around a club that finished third-last on the ladder ahead only of two historically bad teams? Let’s not forget that this was actually a downward slide from their finish in the previous season (13th with eight wins) and not typically a sign of a side on the rise. It deserves to be said that Hawthorn did jettison some established players at the end of 2022 seen to be standing in the way of blooding youngsters. And there is logic in the idea that Tom Mitchell, Jaeger O’Meara, Liam Shiels and Jack Gunston (the latter now bizarrely back at the Hawks again) would have been good enough to add some wins in 2023 but detrimental to their medium- and long-term ambitions. 

Their depth in the here and now though is tested by an extensive injury list that sees the likes of Will Day, Dylan Moore, James Blanck, Changkuoth Jiath and Denver Grainger-Barras all expected to miss time at the start of the season. In fact, the only good health-related news the Hawks have enjoyed in the off-season is that coach Sam Mitchell survived Christmas in New York-Presbyterian Hospital. The trade period addition of Ginnivan will add some needed swagger to the forward line, provided his off-field proclivities are in check. Less exciting is Chol who is on to his third club and now unwanted by Damien Hardwick for a second time, the latest after taking on a team that played Levi Casboult 20 times last year.

Impressive wins last season against Brisbane, Collingwood and the Bulldogs were tempered by seven 50-plus point drubbings suggesting there is a significant gap between Hawthorn’s best and worst. The Hawks have not significantly upgraded their list and will be hoping to improve on the back of natural progression from gifted youngsters, which is not always as straightforward as it seems. 

They have a tough opening five rounds, with one hand tied behind their back due to injury, against three sides expected to play finals (Melbourne, Geelong and Collingwood) and two teams aiming to improve on their own disappointing 2023 campaigns (Essendon and Gold Coast away). We will learn fairly quickly whether the optimism around Hawthorn is deserved or if the bottom of the ladder will continue to look awfully familiar.

The state of football in Western Australia could be in disarray, next up is Fremantle...