#time to revive a special interest by projecting onto this man :D

[intertwined-destinies]

Hey guys long time no see. Just wanted to say I’m trans and that means Ben Solo is trans too by proxy. Ben is a he/they king just like me :)

And now trans headcanon time babey !!!!!

He wears a mask that makes his voice deeper (I mEAN?????) and dark, bulky clothes that make him look bigger and cover him completely because of dysphoria obv

Daddy AND mommy issues

He now has space fantasy top surgery scars :) Rey sees them for the first time and doesn’t know what they are and is extremely confused about what kind of fight would result on two perfectly simmetrical scars .

when she asks Ben about them he’s puzzled because he thought she figured he was trans during the shirtless scene, which is why he was acting like... that. She had actually found out when she got into his head during the interrogation, of course and she doesn’t mind one bit! Once they’ve been in a relationship for some time she asks him about his transition and tries to do research about it as she still doesn’t know what the fuck top surgery is she grew up in a desert

Ben opens up to her gladly and after that their relationship is even STRONGER and HEALTHIER.

When his parents sent him to Luke he hadn’t gone through puberty yet- he hadn’t even come out to them. After a while Luke figures out something’s not right, and Ben cautiously comes out to him.

Luke, being the GAY ICON he is, accepts him instantly and is the one who helps him choose a new name. Neither Leia nor Han has a connection to old Ben Kenobi, but Luke???? The moment he proposes that name to him Ben LOVES it. (And Ben is a CLASSIC trans boy name guys comeonnnn you gotta trUST ME)

Luke informs Ben’s parents about his new name and his transition. They both tell him they accept him too, but they don’t go see him during the whole time after he transitioned, which makes Ben feel like they don’t really know him anymore even more intensely. Of course, Snoke is constantly whispering to him about how they don’t love him anymore and about how disappointed and ashamed they actually are of who he really is. Ben tries to ignore him, but after a while this stuff affects him anyway

While growing up, Luke helps Ben make changes to his body with the Force that surgeries and.. magic space HRT can’t do on their own. He guides him and teaches him to slowly alter his bone structure using force meditation over the course of years so that he can grow taller (whoops he went a little too far but who can blame him I’d do the same thing tbh) and have wider shoulders, a narrower waist, you name it.

When ben flees and decides to go to Snoke he accepts his new name SO fast and hates his old one because it reminds him of Luke and the jedi. Hearing his father use it for the FIRST TIME on the bridge just makes it hurt more.

Being trans in the First Order he is always worried about how manly and intimidating he can appear. He embraces the most toxic traits of masculinity out of fear, throwing tantrums, yelling, being incredibly aggressive all the time. It’s like a defense mechanism for him and he quickly becomes used to it. He relates all displays of his femininity to his days with Luke which makes him actively reject his softness harder.

Unlike at the temple , where many of the other padawans grew up with him, he goes stealth and while it’s very stressful, as in his head he’s afraid that someone SOMEHOW clocks him and ruins his life, he feels kind of good about it, which in turn is part of the reason he convinces himself he is in the right place.

When Ben says he can’t go back to his mother it’s not only because he killed his father, and all other atrocities he may have committed. She hasn’t seen him in person as a man. A GROWN man. If he comes back he is so afraid she’ll see him as a stranger that killed both her husband.. and her DAUGHTER OOOHHHH 🥺😭😫 -Of course Leia will always see him as her son but that’s what he THINKS would happen

While they’re together Rey helps Ben re-embrace his soft, more feminine side (which, with the life she has lived, she also desperately needed to do) and they become a he/they she/they power couple :)

Add more if you want I had to get this out of my system also if you’re transphobic I’ll block you INSTANTLY

@lorsanbitch back me up pls

#time to revive a special interest by projecting onto this man :D #Ben Solo #Reylo #Trans Kylo Ren #Kylo Ren says trans rights :) #AND Rey too!! once she finds out more about gender stuff she realizes she identifies as a Demigirl and #she starts using she/they pronouns #Kylo Ren

[shacklesburst]

World Fool News (Part II): Episode 1 Gag short with stock characters and stock jokes. 5/10, probably.

Alice to Zouroku: Episode 1 A tried and true plotline, reimagined yet again: Grumpy old guy plus adorable child against powerful evil conspiracy (bonus points if the conspiracy did human experiments on the child ... check). Animation is okay-ish, as long as there are no CGI-interruptions. The CGI is hell. Zouroku is awesome. Sana is ... there and ... a child. I guess that's enough for episode one. Preliminary score: 7/10.

Hinako Note: Episode 1 Very moe. Wut. Why is she eating a book. Liking teh book shop vibe tho. Nah, this is not for me. Dropped after one at 4/10.

Tsuki ga Kirei: Episode 1 Nice style in general. Lol, the walking animation could use a little more work. Mhh, could become a love story, or simply a story of friendship and growing up. Rooting for the latter, obviously. 「LINEばっかり。」 Damn ... looks like I'm the sister side character in this one :D. Hahaha. Yeah. I'm definitely the sister. Cringe, parents. He's a teen now, so he's gonna try coffee! (Don't worry, it's not for everybody, and you can live veeery well without.) There's the weird CGI robo-walk again. That squishy thing is really cute and seems useful, actually. Oh man ... those book shops. I lived right next to one for a while in Tokyo, and it looked exactly like that. They're the greatest. Oh, it's definitely a coming-of-age story, at least among others. Okay, I gotta check out Dazai. That's not a book, guy, that's a magazine. No harm in taking it home, but ... it's not a book. LINE probably sponsored this anime, right? Putting the moves on, but you're wide open on both sides, literally all the time, Kotarou-kun. Like it. They could be onto something there. Preliminary score: 7/10.

Sakurada Reset: Episode 1 Okay ... this one's like it tries (way waaaaaay) too hard to be extremely convoluted and philosophical. I'll try to stay with it, but ... who knows. Preliminary score: 5/10.

Nobunaga no Shinobi: Ise Kanegasaki-hen: Episode 1 Started right where it left off. Gags still center around puns and Chidori's naiveté. Nothing much changed, so the score stays at 6/10 as well.

Kabukibu!: Episode 1 Ohh, it's one of thooose! Somebody's really into Kabuki and they will go to nationals! Sports anime for the non-sport crowd. (When will I finally get an ice hockey anime *cries*) Hahaha, yeah, that moment when you got some light background knowledge about stuff and are confronted by somebody whose special interest it is :D. Hahaha, his friend is clearly tooootallyy into it. But they're friends, so he's going along. 超ラッキー！ Wow ... his band is toootally into it. He actually got fans with that? Amazing. Aww, c'mon, it's a school kabuki group. Of course you can also join as a girl. Ahahaha, he said the same. I feel a mawashi geri coming. There it is. Whoa, good reflexes. Ouch. But at least he lost a tooth! That's about as close as I've come to an ice hockey anime in ... yeaaars! 「ありがとうごふぁいまひた」 *hrhrhr*. The guy's nickname is Hana-chan. And he looks like a delinquent. Wait, wasn't it a plot point just 2 minutes ago that they couldn't get into the old school building? Yeah, well ... preliminary score: pretty average, so 5/10. I haven't watched much Shouwa Genroku, but it's very clearly not on the same level. But maybe it might be this season's 'no need to think' anime.

Sakura Quest: Episode 1 Weeelll, that opening cleared up literally nothing. I have no idea, what this show is about. Ohh. Okay, good start, actually. And it's not a school anime. I'm highly intrigued. They could be onto something here. Especially if she really takes up a secreterial position in countryside Japan. No, mayo most certainly will not go well with this. Very #TheStruggleIsReal first five minutes. Hahaha. That's the final train stop. This backstory is too real. Like, the actual one, with the funds from the Hometown Revival project, not the one about how the guy freed the sword. Yeah, girl, read ya contracts, pacta sunt servanda! Hahaha. The things you do to keep the big city people from going back to the big city. Oooooh, now the dream at the beginning kind of makes sense. Nice tie-in! Enjoyable. Preliminary score: 7/10.

#spring 2017 season thoughts #weeaburst's seasonal anime reviews

[junker-town]

Oklahoma football expectations remain as high as ever, with Lincoln Riley in charge

Bob Stoops’ Sooners had a habit of surprising. What will Lincoln Riley’s Sooners have in store?

Note: This is an updated version of a preview that was posted in May, two weeks before Stoops’ unexpected retirement.

Bob Stoops created quite a legacy by zigging when people thought he was going to zag. That continued right on through his surprising June 2017 retirement.

For most of the 2000s, the now-former OU head coach had the program most likely to hit expectations. Stoops’ Sooners were ranked between first and third in the preseason AP poll each year from 2001-04 and finished in the top six each season. After a blip in 2005 (preseason No. 7, finished No. 22), they grew even more accurate: they started 10th and ended 11th in 2006, started eighth and finished eighth in 2007, and started fourth and ended fifth in 2008.

The second stage of Stoops’ career began in 2009 following OU’s title game loss to Florida. It was successful but far more rocky.

In the last eight seasons, OU won at least 10 games six times, won four Big 12 titles, and finished sixth or better in the AP poll four times. We all wish we could have such up-and-down fortunes. But getting a bead on what OU was about to do became impossible. They began 2009 third in the preseason polls and went 8-5. They began 2014 fourth and finished unranked. They began 2015 19th and ended up the No. 4 seed in the College Football Playoff.

By comparison, 2016 was downright stable — they started third and finished fifth, only the second time in eight years that they finished within nine spots of where they began. But 2017 has already seen a massive curve ball. Stoops suddenly announced his retirement on June 7, with 33-year old offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley named as his replacement.

No matter the head man, OU will begin with expectations. The Sooners are projected fifth in S&P+ and likely would have begun the season somewhere around sixth before the coaching change. Stoops made them the surest thing in the Big 12 and retired having won his final 16 conference games. What changes now?

OU already had to replace three of its most talented skill guys of the Stoops era — running backs Joe Mixon and Semaje Perine and receiver Dede Westbrook — and is maybe coming off of its worst Stoops-era defensive performance.

Baker Mayfield’s presence will help. A two-year starter and one of the two preseason Heisman favorites, Mayfield could almost serve as offensive coordinator at this point. The Sooners will also have the best, most experienced offensive line in the conference. They have the defensive experience that they somewhat lacked last season. Even with turnover in the skill corps, they will probably remain an overwhelming favorite to win a third consecutive conference title.

But for all Stoops can talk about a seamless transition, there’s no such thing here. The last time someone not named Stoops led the Sooners onto the field was November 1998, when Riley was 15 years old.

From a projections standpoint, S&P+ expects six of the other nine teams in the Big 12 to improve this coming fall. Texas has a chance to surge into the top 15, Oklahoma State into the top 10. An experienced TCU could look a lot more like its 2014 self. Baylor is capable of any number of things, good or bad. Kansas State is experienced in all the ways a Bill Snyder team needs to be.

(Snyder, by the way, has outlasted another former protege.)

OU likely remains the 2017 Big 12 favorite, but to say the least, Riley’s first season features plenty of hurdles.

2016 in review

2016 OU statistical profile.

A conference title is not to be taken for granted, but when you’re coming off of a national semifinal appearance, and you’re expected to contend for another Playoff bid, beginning the season with two losses in three games is crippling. OU was not up for the challenge of either Houston or Ohio State.

But there’s still something to be said for dominating when the pressure is off.

First 3 games (1-2): Avg. percentile performance: 70% (~top 40) | Avg. yards per play: OU 6.9, Opp 5.6 (plus-1.3) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: minus-14.2 PPG

Last 10 games (10-0): Avg. percentile performance: 87% (~top 15) | Avg. yards per play: OU 7.7, Opp 5.9 (plus-1.8) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: plus-8.1 PPG

The Sooners weren’t awful early. They held Houston to just 5.1 yards per play and lost mostly because of field position and special teams. And against Ohio State, they moved the ball well (5.9 yards per play, 403 total yards) but fell victim to the best half of Buckeye receiver Noah Brown’s career and were forced to play catch-up against an Urban Meyer team.

The Big 12 might not have been amazing — per both S&P+ and your own eyeballs, it graded out as the worst power conference — but they still beat seven top-50 teams by an average of 16.4 points following the Ohio State loss. They still closed out a conference title by beating 10-win WVU and Oklahoma State teams by a combined 94-48. They still looked like the team they were supposed to be once Ohio State left Norman.

Well, it wasn’t quite the team they were supposed to be. The offense was even better than expected (first in Off. S&P+), and the offense was truly disappointing, at least for the first half of the year.

Offense

Full advanced stats glossary.

Safe to say, Stoops got his money’s worth bringing Riley to town. The former Texas Tech quarterback and East Carolina coordinator was tasked with reviving an OU attack that had lost its way two years ago. The Sooners had plummeted to 44th in Off. S&P+ in 2013 (a downfall from which we were distracted when they torched the Bama defense), and while they rebounded to 17th in 2014, they still weren’t back to the top-10 level that they managed in 2007-08 and 2010-12.

Riley has established a partnership with another former Tech QB — Mayfield — that has benefited both greatly. Mayfield has twice finished in the top four of the Heisman voting, and, well, Riley now gets to occupy the big office in the OU facilities.

In two years with Riley, Mayfield has thrown for 7,665 yards, 76 touchdowns, and only 15 interceptions. OU improved to seventh in Off. S&P+ in 2015, and with the further emergence of Mixon and Westbrook, surged all the way to first last fall. They averaged at least 7.4 yards per play in eight of 13 games and gained a patently absurd 854 yards in 76 snaps against Texas Tech.

(Yes, Tech’s defense was upsettingly bad. But 11.2 yards per play would have been impressive against Lubbock High School.)

Even in an offense-friendly conference, OU was the gold standard.

So now what? Mayfield is back for his senior season, which means we’ll have to wait to see what blue-chip Texas A&M transfer Kyler Murray might do in crimson and cream. But in Perine, Mixon, and Westbrook, OU has to replace 2,435 combined rushing yards and 2,168 receiving yards.

The new de facto production leader is tight end Mark Andrews, who caught 31 balls for 489 yards as a complement to Westbrook. The second leading receiver is walk-on slot man Nick Basquine. The leading running back is Abdul Adams, who gained most of his 283 yards in garbage time against ULM and Kansas.

Translation: OU needs a lot of new pieces to step up.

Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Rodney Anderson

Running backs: Sophomore running back Rodney Anderson is a former four-star and had a lovely spring. If he can stay healthy — he hasn’t yet been able to in Norman — then he and Adams could form a solid combination.

Veteran receivers: Seniors Jeffery Mead and Jordan Smallwood and juniors A.D. Miller and Dahu Green combined to catch 30 of 54 passes for 436 yards and five scores in 2016 [update: Green has since left the team]. Mead was particularly interesting, combining 15 yards per catch with a 56 percent success rate. He also made eight of his 10 catches in the last five games, including a 42-yarder against OSU and scores against Iowa State and WVU. He scored on a 70-yard bomb in the spring game, too.

Transfers: Jeff Badet caught 82 balls for 1,385 yards in three seasons at Kentucky and averaged 20.9 yards per catch as a play-action threat last fall. Meanwhile, Marquise Brown is a bouncy four-star JUCO transfer whose stature — he’s listed at 5’11, 157, and word is that might be overstating things a bit — is a reminder of former transfer-turned-star Jalen Saunders.

Newbies: Stoops signed three four-star freshmen in the receiving corps: receivers CeeDee Lamb and Charleston Rambo and tight end Grant Calcaterra. One will need to fill at least a backup role.

In the absence of knowns, you want options. And despite the turnover, a backfield of Anderson/Adams and Mayfield, combined with a receiving corps of Andrews, Badet/Brown, Mead/Miller/Smallwood/Green, and Lamb/Rambo will be just fine. Not first-in-Off.-S&P+ level fine, but good enough.

Plus, to say the least, the presence of Big 12 lineman of the year Orlando Brown, plus four other honorable mention all-conference guys, is a boost. Mayfield will be well-protected, and the RB of choice should have his choice of holes.

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Jeff Badet

Defense

Stoops proved willing to make bold changes in the name of keeping his program fresh. Those can work beautifully; he did dismiss a solid coordinator in Josh Heupel to nab Riley.

Other times, though, the results were less brilliant. He parted ways with longtime coordinator Brent Venables following a run of three straight top-10 finishes in Def. S&P+ (fourth in 2009, seventh in 2010, 10th in 2011), allowing Venables to move to Clemson and bringing his brother Mike back to town. There was talk of a stale marriage and whatnot, but the results under Venables had been stellar.

The OU defense has been mostly fine since then — between 19th and 33rd each year — but it hasn’t been elite. And in the first half of 2016, with Clemson playing at a top-6 level for a third straight year, the Sooner D was downright mediocre.

First 7 games: Avg. defensive percentile performance: 48% (~top 65) | Avg. points per game: 36.7

Last 6 games: Avg. defensive percentile performance: 72% (~top 35) | Avg. points per game: 19.7

After the ultimate come-to-Jesus moment — allowing 59 points and 854 yards to Texas Tech — the Sooners rallied. The WVU game (in which the Mountaineers averaged 8.9 yards per play and Justin Crawford rushed for 331 yards) was a reminder that there were still plenty of ongoing issues. But OU’s defense still allowed fewer than three touchdowns per game over the last six games of the year. In that conference, that’s more than good enough.

Assuming no defensive coordinator change in the near future, can the Sooners not only maintain last year’s improvement but build off of it? I think so.

Moving back more of a 4-3 base seems to fit the personnel well — new Jack end/linebacker Ogbonnia Okoronkwo is custom made for a flex position, and while Neville Gallimore is big enough to play the nose on a three-man line, he’s agile enough to do damage in gaps. The rest of the line has enough options (experienced guys like D.J. Ward and Matt Romar, high-upside youngsters like Du’Vonta Lampkin and Mark Jackson Jr.) that finding a solid starting four is likely.

Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (31)

Meanwhile, the back of the defense should be far more stable. Injury and attrition meant that Stoops and Stoops were spending most of the year trying to find a decent rotation. That, plus the loss of a couple of key attackers up front, resulted in a change from 27 takeaways in 2015 to 17 in 2016. You think nearly one turnover per game might make a difference in your defensive effectiveness?

While free safety Ahmad Thomas is gone, seniors Steven Parker (strong safety), Will Johnson (nickel or free safety), and Jordan Thomas (cornerback) are all back after combining for 7.5 tackles for loss and 28 passes defensed.

Sophomore OLB Caleb Kelly is both less green and flexible enough to play some nickel back if need be. And a few of OU’s most well-regarded incoming freshmen — OLB Levi Draper, corner Justin Broiles, safety Robert Barnes — could find both opportunity and success.

Still, since Venables left town, OU’s defense has ranked above its offense in S&P+ just once and hasn’t ranked better than 19th. A No. 19 defense would allow the Sooners to run away with the Big 12 this year, but that’s the bare minimum for what’s required if we’re to treat the Sooners as a national title contender. It’s also 36 spots higher than what they managed last year. Expecting a defense that good takes more than a little faith.

John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Jordan Thomas

Special Teams

Dede Westbrook ripped off a 71-yard punt return against Kansas. OU’s other 11 punt returns gained a total of 51 yards. Mixon had a 97-yard kick return, and Westbrook had a 63-yarder; the Sooners’ other 33 KRs averaged 19.8 yards. Austin Seibert didn’t make a single field goal over 39 yards.

Despite excellent, unreturnable punting from Seibert, this was an inconsistent, unreliable special teams unit, one that ranked 54th in Special Teams S&P+. That’s not awful, but it could be better. We’ll see if there’s a steadier return threat in the mix this year—consistent 30-yard KRs or 15-yard PRs is better for you than a single great return.

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 2-Sep UTEP 126 42.1 99% 9-Sep at Ohio State 2 -5.7 37% 16-Sep Tulane 94 33.4 97% 23-Sep at Baylor 28 11.3 74% 7-Oct Iowa State 57 21.9 90% 14-Oct vs. Texas 16 8.1 68% 21-Oct at Kansas State 35 12.9 77% 28-Oct Texas Tech 66 23.1 91% 4-Nov at Oklahoma State 22 7.6 67% 11-Nov TCU 21 12.4 76% 18-Nov at Kansas 107 31.5 97% 25-Nov West Virginia 69 24.7 92%

Projected S&P+ Rk 5 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 1 / 39 Projected wins 9.7 Five-Year S&P+ Rk 16.9 (6) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 11 / 14 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* 0 / 3.4 2016 TO Luck/Game -1.3 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 67% (60%, 73%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 10.8 (0.2)

Coaching change or no, when you’ve won 16 conference games in a row and gone 22-4 in two years, you get some benefit of the doubt. OU will likely remain the conference favorite, and justifiably so.

It’s easy to see how things could go awry, though, for a team that is breaking in a new head coach but living with the expectations of the last one. We don’t know that the defense will improve much, and we don’t know that the skill guys around Mayfield will be anything better than replacement-level.

Mayfield, the offensive line, the experienced secondary and linebacking corps, and the fact that OU has recruited better than anybody else in the conference tells you why OU should still be strong. But with a schedule that features early trips to Ohio State and Baylor and later trips to Kansas State and Oklahoma State, it’s not that hard to see the Sooners tripping up and falling out of not only national title contention, but Big 12 contention as well.

And here we thought Mayfield getting tackled by a cop was going to be the biggest offseason distraction in Norman...

Team preview stats

All power conference preview data to date.

[junker-town]

Bob Stoops’ retirement was a surprise, but expectations remain as high as ever for Oklahoma

Stoops’ Sooners had a habit of surprising. What will Lincoln Riley’s Sooners have in store?

Note: This is an updated version of a preview that was posted in May, two weeks before Stoops’ unexpected retirement.

Bob Stoops created quite a legacy by zigging when people thought he was going to zag. That continued right on through his surprising June 2017 retirement.

For most of the 2000s, the now-former OU head coach had the program most likely to hit expectations. Stoops’ Sooners were ranked between first and third in the preseason AP poll each year from 2001-04 and finished in the top six each season. After a blip in 2005 (preseason No. 7, finished No. 22), they grew even more accurate: they started 10th and ended 11th in 2006, started eighth and finished eighth in 2007, and started fourth and ended fifth in 2008.

The second stage of Stoops’ career began in 2009 following OU’s title game loss to Florida. It was successful but far more rocky.

In the last eight seasons, OU won at least 10 games six times, won four Big 12 titles, and finished sixth or better in the AP poll four times. We all wish we could have such up-and-down fortunes. But getting a bead on what OU was about to do became impossible. They began 2009 third in the preseason polls and went 8-5. They began 2014 fourth and finished unranked. They began 2015 19th and ended up the No. 4 seed in the College Football Playoff.

By comparison, 2016 was downright stable — they started third and finished fifth, only the second time in eight years that they finished within nine spots of where they began. But 2017 has already seen a massive curve ball. Stoops suddenly announced his retirement on June 7, with 33-year old offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley named as his replacement.

No matter the head man, OU will begin with expectations. The Sooners are projected fifth in S&P+ and likely would have begun the season somewhere around sixth before the coaching change. Stoops made them the surest thing in the Big 12 and retired having won his final 16 conference games. What changes now?

OU already had to replace three of its most talented skill guys of the Stoops era — running backs Joe Mixon and Semaje Perine and receiver Dede Westbrook — and is maybe coming off of its worst Stoops-era defensive performance.

Baker Mayfield’s presence will help. A two-year starter and one of the two preseason Heisman favorites, Mayfield could almost serve as offensive coordinator at this point. The Sooners will also have the best, most experienced offensive line in the conference. They have the defensive experience that they somewhat lacked last season. Even with turnover in the skill corps, they will probably remain an overwhelming favorite to win a third consecutive conference title.

But for all Stoops can talk about a seamless transition, there’s no such thing here. The last time someone not named Stoops led the Sooners onto the field was November 1998, when Riley was 15 years old.

From a projections standpoint, S&P+ expects six of the other nine teams in the Big 12 to improve this coming fall. Texas has a chance to surge into the top 15, Oklahoma State into the top 10. An experienced TCU could look a lot more like its 2014 self. Baylor is capable of any number of things, good or bad. Kansas State is experienced in all the ways a Bill Snyder team needs to be.

(Snyder, by the way, has outlasted another former protege.)

OU likely remains the 2017 Big 12 favorite, but to say the least, Riley’s first season features plenty of hurdles.

2016 in review

2016 OU statistical profile.

A conference title is not to be taken for granted, but when you’re coming off of a national semifinal appearance, and you’re expected to contend for another Playoff bid, beginning the season with two losses in three games is crippling. OU was not up for the challenge of either Houston or Ohio State.

But there’s still something to be said for dominating when the pressure is off.

First 3 games (1-2): Avg. percentile performance: 70% (~top 40) | Avg. yards per play: OU 6.9, Opp 5.6 (plus-1.3) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: minus-14.2 PPG

Last 10 games (10-0): Avg. percentile performance: 87% (~top 15) | Avg. yards per play: OU 7.7, Opp 5.9 (plus-1.8) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: plus-8.1 PPG

The Sooners weren’t awful early. They held Houston to just 5.1 yards per play and lost mostly because of field position and special teams. And against Ohio State, they moved the ball well (5.9 yards per play, 403 total yards) but fell victim to the best half of Buckeye receiver Noah Brown’s career and were forced to play catch-up against an Urban Meyer team.

The Big 12 might not have been amazing — per both S&P+ and your own eyeballs, it graded out as the worst power conference — but they still beat seven top-50 teams by an average of 16.4 points following the Ohio State loss. They still closed out a conference title by beating 10-win WVU and Oklahoma State teams by a combined 94-48. They still looked like the team they were supposed to be once Ohio State left Norman.

Well, it wasn’t quite the team they were supposed to be. The offense was even better than expected (first in Off. S&P+), and the offense was truly disappointing, at least for the first half of the year.

Offense

Full advanced stats glossary.

Safe to say, Stoops got his money’s worth bringing Riley to town. The former Texas Tech quarterback and East Carolina coordinator was tasked with reviving an OU attack that had lost its way two years ago. The Sooners had plummeted to 44th in Off. S&P+ in 2013 (a downfall from which we were distracted when they torched the Bama defense), and while they rebounded to 17th in 2014, they still weren’t back to the top-10 level that they managed in 2007-08 and 2010-12.

Riley has established a partnership with another former Tech QB — Mayfield — that has benefited both greatly. Mayfield has twice finished in the top four of the Heisman voting, and, well, Riley now gets to occupy the big office in the OU facilities.

In two years with Riley, Mayfield has thrown for 7,665 yards, 76 touchdowns, and only 15 interceptions. OU improved to seventh in Off. S&P+ in 2015, and with the further emergence of Mixon and Westbrook, surged all the way to first last fall. They averaged at least 7.4 yards per play in eight of 13 games and gained a patently absurd 854 yards in 76 snaps against Texas Tech.

(Yes, Tech’s defense was upsettingly bad. But 11.2 yards per play would have been impressive against Lubbock High School.)

Even in an offense-friendly conference, OU was the gold standard.

So now what? Mayfield is back for his senior season, which means we’ll have to wait to see what blue-chip Texas A&M transfer Kyler Murray might do in crimson and cream. But in Perine, Mixon, and Westbrook, OU has to replace 2,435 combined rushing yards and 2,168 receiving yards.

The new de facto production leader is tight end Mark Andrews, who caught 31 balls for 489 yards as a complement to Westbrook. The second leading receiver is walk-on slot man Nick Basquine. The leading running back is Abdul Adams, who gained most of his 283 yards in garbage time against ULM and Kansas.

Translation: OU needs a lot of new pieces to step up.

Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Rodney Anderson

Running backs: Sophomore running back Rodney Anderson is a former four-star and had a lovely spring. If he can stay healthy — he hasn’t yet been able to in Norman — then he and Adams could form a solid combination.

Veteran receivers: Seniors Jeffery Mead and Jordan Smallwood and juniors A.D. Miller and Dahu Green combined to catch 30 of 54 passes for 436 yards and five scores in 2016. Mead was particularly interesting, combining 15 yards per catch with a 56 percent success rate. He also made eight of his 10 catches in the last five games, including a 42-yarder against OSU and scores against Iowa State and WVU. He scored on a 70-yard bomb in the spring game, too.

Transfers: Jeff Badet caught 82 balls for 1,385 yards in three seasons at Kentucky and averaged 20.9 yards per catch as a play-action threat last fall. Meanwhile, Marquise Brown is a bouncy four-star JUCO transfer whose stature — he’s listed at 5’11, 157, and word is that might be overstating things a bit — is a reminder of former transfer-turned-star Jalen Saunders.

Newbies: Stoops signed three four-star freshmen in the receiving corps: receivers CeeDee Lamb and Charleston Rambo and tight end Grant Calcaterra. One will need to fill at least a backup role.

In the absence of knowns, you want options. And despite the turnover, a backfield of Anderson/Adams and Mayfield, combined with a receiving corps of Andrews, Badet/Brown, Mead/Miller/Smallwood/Green, and Lamb/Rambo will be just fine. Not first-in-Off.-S&P+ level fine, but good enough.

Plus, to say the least, the presence of Big 12 lineman of the year Orlando Brown, plus four other honorable mention all-conference guys, is a boost. Mayfield will be well-protected, and the RB of choice should have his choice of holes.

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Jeff Badet

Defense

Stoops proved willing to make bold changes in the name of keeping his program fresh. Those can work beautifully; he did dismiss a solid coordinator in Josh Heupel to nab Riley.

Other times, though, the results were less brilliant. He parted ways with longtime coordinator Brent Venables following a run of three straight top-10 finishes in Def. S&P+ (fourth in 2009, seventh in 2010, 10th in 2011), allowing Venables to move to Clemson and bringing his brother Mike back to town. There was talk of a stale marriage and whatnot, but the results under Venables had been stellar.

The OU defense has been mostly fine since then — between 19th and 33rd each year — but it hasn’t been elite. And in the first half of 2016, with Clemson playing at a top-6 level for a third straight year, the Sooner D was downright mediocre.

First 7 games: Avg. defensive percentile performance: 48% (~top 65) | Avg. points per game: 36.7

Last 6 games: Avg. defensive percentile performance: 72% (~top 35) | Avg. points per game: 19.7

After the ultimate come-to-Jesus moment — allowing 59 points and 854 yards to Texas Tech — the Sooners rallied. The WVU game (in which the Mountaineers averaged 8.9 yards per play and Justin Crawford rushed for 331 yards) was a reminder that there were still plenty of ongoing issues. But OU’s defense still allowed fewer than three touchdowns per game over the last six games of the year. In that conference, that’s more than good enough.

Assuming no defensive coordinator change in the near future, can the Sooners not only maintain last year’s improvement but build off of it? I think so.

Moving back more of a 4-3 base seems to fit the personnel well — new Jack end/linebacker Ogbonnia Okoronkwo is custom made for a flex position, and while Neville Gallimore is big enough to play the nose on a three-man line, he’s agile enough to do damage in gaps. The rest of the line has enough options (experienced guys like D.J. Ward and Matt Romar, high-upside youngsters like Du’Vonta Lampkin and Mark Jackson Jr.) that finding a solid starting four is likely.

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Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (31)

Meanwhile, the back of the defense should be far more stable. Injury and attrition meant that Stoops and Stoops were spending most of the year trying to find a decent rotation. That, plus the loss of a couple of key attackers up front, resulted in a change from 27 takeaways in 2015 to 17 in 2016. You think nearly one turnover per game might make a difference in your defensive effectiveness?

While free safety Ahmad Thomas is gone, seniors Steven Parker (strong safety), Will Johnson (nickel or free safety), and Jordan Thomas (cornerback) are all back after combining for 7.5 tackles for loss and 28 passes defensed.

Sophomore OLB Caleb Kelly is both less green and flexible enough to play some nickel back if need be. And a few of OU’s most well-regarded incoming freshmen — OLB Levi Draper, corner Justin Broiles, safety Robert Barnes — could find both opportunity and success.

Still, since Venables left town, OU’s defense has ranked above its offense in S&P+ just once and hasn’t ranked better than 19th. A No. 19 defense would allow the Sooners to run away with the Big 12 this year, but that’s the bare minimum for what’s required if we’re to treat the Sooners as a national title contender. It’s also 36 spots higher than what they managed last year. Expecting a defense that good takes more than a little faith.

John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Jordan Thomas

Special Teams

Dede Westbrook ripped off a 71-yard punt return against Kansas. OU’s other 11 punt returns gained a total of 51 yards. Mixon had a 97-yard kick return, and Westbrook had a 63-yarder; the Sooners’ other 33 KRs averaged 19.8 yards. Austin Seibert didn’t make a single field goal over 39 yards.

Despite excellent, unreturnable punting from Seibert, this was an inconsistent, unreliable special teams unit, one that ranked 54th in Special Teams S&P+. That’s not awful, but it could be better. We’ll see if there’s a steadier return threat in the mix this year—consistent 30-yard KRs or 15-yard PRs is better for you than a single great return.

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 2-Sep UTEP 126 42.1 99% 9-Sep at Ohio State 2 -5.7 37% 16-Sep Tulane 94 33.4 97% 23-Sep at Baylor 28 11.3 74% 7-Oct Iowa State 57 21.9 90% 14-Oct vs. Texas 16 8.1 68% 21-Oct at Kansas State 35 12.9 77% 28-Oct Texas Tech 66 23.1 91% 4-Nov at Oklahoma State 22 7.6 67% 11-Nov TCU 21 12.4 76% 18-Nov at Kansas 107 31.5 97% 25-Nov West Virginia 69 24.7 92%

Projected S&P+ Rk 5 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 1 / 39 Projected wins 9.7 Five-Year S&P+ Rk 16.9 (6) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 11 / 14 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* 0 / 3.4 2016 TO Luck/Game -1.3 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 67% (60%, 73%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 10.8 (0.2)

Coaching change or no, when you’ve won 16 conference games in a row and gone 22-4 in two years, you get some benefit of the doubt. OU will likely remain the conference favorite, and justifiably so.

It’s easy to see how things could go awry, though, for a team that is breaking in a new head coach but living with the expectations of the last one. We don’t know that the defense will improve much, and we don’t know that the skill guys around Mayfield will be anything better than replacement-level.

Mayfield, the offensive line, the experienced secondary and linebacking corps, and the fact that OU has recruited better than anybody else in the conference tells you why OU should still be strong. But with a schedule that features early trips to Ohio State and Baylor and later trips to Kansas State and Oklahoma State, it’s not that hard to see the Sooners tripping up and falling out of not only national title contention, but Big 12 contention as well.

And here we thought Mayfield getting tackled by a cop was going to be the biggest offseason distraction in Norman...

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