somehow its almost been two weeks since I've drawn anything as I've been:
a. tired
b. spending the last week non-stop shiny hunting riolu to no avail
and I've been telling myself I'll draw something once I finish this shiny hunt. Except, I don't think this shiny hunt is ever gonna end and I wanna share some stats that explain why:
2,280 Riolu encounters so far, zero shinies.
Given the 1/1024 odds (due to my dex research level), there was only a 10.7% chance of this happening.
In the mean time, I've encountered somewhere around 5,000 machokes, and somehow found five shinies.
Given the 1/2048 odds, that's only a 10.1% chance.
But it gets even worse somehow.
If finding five shiny machokes but no riolus wasn't insult enough, one of them was a shiny alpha machoke (which given the 1/2048 odds of a shiny in this instance, and the 1/50* of an alpha, is a 1/102,400 chance)
*the odds of an alpha apparently vary between 1/50 and 1/500. 1/50 does seem about right though, plus this means my math is either correct, or an underestimate.
I don't how the hell I hit a 1/102,400 chance but not a 1/1,024 one (literally two orders of magnitude more likely), but I'm convinced I'm cursed.
Also I know I could get the odds of a shiny riolu down to only 1/141 by abusing mass outbreaks, but for some reason I wanted to "earn" it by doing it the hard way. And I'm way too invested to turn back now. Aka I'm stupid and stubborn lmao
One last kicker: Because I'm stupid, I decided to catch and keep every single riolu. And I'm way too comitted to this bit to stop (plus its the reason I have the exact encounter figure for riolus)
Since I refuse to pay a subscription for Pokemon Home, I've had to create two more users on my switch, replayed the opening of PLA twice more, and have almost filled all 29 pastures on both accounts (turns out you only get all 32 after beating the game). I'll likely be creating a third extra account and replaying the opening of PLA once more in a few hours lol
the unused box space on some of the accounts is taken up by lucarios (which for some reason I started catching all of about half way through) and pokemon that would take way too much effort to obtain again. That doesn't include the 1/102,400 shiny alpha machoke. I killed it out of spite c:
Finally have a team of shiny alphas (ft. Ingo for size comparison) in my main game. One I found by actively hunting it, one when hunting normal shinies, and the rest by coincidence. The team balance is wack but it’s a check off my pla bucket list
Loving Crobat with her lil Ingo smile!! Basically just (^A^)
I was grinding levels in PLA to evolve some of my Scarlet pokemon into their Hisuian evolutions, when I managed to score both a Lickilicky and an Alpha Lickitung in the same Outbreak!
Found during a massive mass outbreak, but not actually in one of the outbreaks.
Found another shiny alpha Haunter in a massive mass outbreak. Eventually evolved one into a Gengar.
Found right after the second Haunter! Back to back shiny alphas! Was just checking static alphas in the Mirelands and it was sitting by the alpha Raichu.
Shiny alpha starter! In massive mass outbreak, but not when the horde reformed.
Another massive mass outbreak win. Wasn't even going for that outbreak, just passed over it on the way to another one and boom, shiny alpha.
These massive mass outbreaks are liking me lately.
Last one for now. Used Austin John Plays' method for this one. Took quite a while, but it worked out. Hopefully I'll find some more, but I'm focusing on Dynamax Adventures again, probably until Scarlet and Violet come out.
Got a fifth shiny alpha Ninetales! Regular shiny for comparison on the right. I love their sitting animation! I would really like an alpha shiny Golduck, though.
i have been resetting the map for fucking weeks at the best odds possible!! for a shiny alpha mismagius bc i just. rly like the big yellow ones…and this game gives me my first duplicate shiny alpha in the form of the only one that gives piss and shit. @nintendo please be serious. this is genuinely upsetting b/c at this point i’ve been in a stage of bargaining for every hunt i do where i tell myself that the first shiny alpha duplicate i get ill use to bargain for whatever i don’t wanna hunt anymore and i literally haven’t been more done with a hunt than this one. but. i just cnt fucking do it. i don’t care if they look like urine and in addition diarrhea. they’re too stupid! i can’t separate them.! look at them