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westletter · 4 years

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January 2020

Dear Friends, This mysterious poster has been appearing on lampposts in downtown Kingston since last fall. It has prompted a rather personal examination of fake news. Read the fine print under the photo and note that the scientist on the right is The West Letter editor’s father, Allen (Al) West. He died at age 86 in 1996. Bitten is the title of a book that appeared last year. Written by a science writer in California, Kris Newby, it argues with great conviction that the scourge of tick-borne Lyme disease can be traced to US biological weapons research “gone wrong” post World War II. The author, a recovered Lyme disease patient herself, builds a case that experimental work at Plum Island NY, led to the pathogen “escaping” into the deer population in Connecticut in the ‘70s, and from there to humans. In plain English, Bitten is a conspiracy theory, that commits the classic error of equating correlation with causation. Newby conveniently skirts the ample evidence that Lyme disease has been with us at least since the 1890s, and possibly for centuries, preferring to make a case out of two coincident but unrelated facts: one, US military tick-borne disease research in progress on Plum Island NY post WW II; and two, the first identification of Lyme disease in Old Lyme (from whence the name), Connecticut in 1977. The “ah hah” factor, if you are inclined to the conspiracy, is that Plum Island is but a short hop, as the crow flies, from Connecticut.

The amateur poster maker too has indulged -- egregiously so -- in the same lack of critical thinking. Looking at the poster, you might assume that Al West and Queen’s University “in Ontario” were central to the conspiracy theory story. You would be wrong. The cover of the book does not feature this photograph. Nor in the entire text of Bitten is there any reference to Al West or Queen’s University, other than in the photo and caption. The main character from beginning to end of Bitten is the man on left, Willy Burgdorfer, the discoverer of the bacterium that causes Lyme Disease. The purpose of the photo was to help bring him to life for the reader. The guys in the lab coats to his left were completely unrelated to the conspiracy tale.

I’m guessing that the poster maker is a Lyme disease sufferer in Kingston who buys the conspiracy angle of Bitten. He or she has seized on the three amigos in lab coats photo, and its caption, as “evidence” (guilt by association) that Al West and Queen’s University must have had a hand, along with Burgdorfer, in releasing the plague of Lyme disease upon humans. Sic transit the compounding of fake news. §

FAKE INVESTING NEWS Beware the market soothsayers Canadian economist David Rosenberg is a genuine heavy hitter. After years opining and advising on Wall Street he returned to Canada to do the same for the Toronto-based money manager Gluskin Sheff. Rosenberg’s “Breakfast with Dave” subscription service has a devoted following, as do his frequent interviews and articles in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, the Globe and Mail and the Financial Post.

Last November Rosenberg left Gluskin Sheff to hang out his own shingle. The name may be changing, but the schtick has not and will not. Rosenberg is best known as a “perma-bear”, someone who almost always forecasts bad news ahead in the markets. Famously, while Chief Economist at Merrill Lynch, he correctly called the impending real estate crash in the US before the Great Recession in 2008. That made his reputation. Unfortunately, with rare exceptions, he has been calling for more bad news ever since. Rosenberg is one of those economists of whom it can fairly be said: “He called 39 of the last 9 recessions.” Put another way, even a broken clock is right twice every 24 hours. Beware the market soothsayers. If you listened to the naysayers a year ago (including Rosenberg), you missed out on the best market performance in the past decade. In investing it pays to stick to the knowable: is this stock over or under priced; are the board and management demonstrably competent and on the shareholders’ side; can the balance sheet withstand the inevitable storms? The rest is guessing, which has no place in long term successful investing. §

THEME FOR A NEW DECADE Hop on board the shortage in rental housing! To quote from an editorial in the January 3rd edition of Globe and Mail:

“Canada has recently been the fastest growing country in the Group of Seven, with a population rising at double the pace of the United States and United Kingdom, and four times that of France and Germany. According to Statistics Canada projections, our country could have 48.8 million people by 2050. And that’s the agency’s medium growth projection; under a high-growth scenario,there could soon be 56 million Canadians. Nearly all of these future residents are going to live in this country’s handful of big cities. That means millions of new urban dwellers ....” At a recent baby boomers dinner party, the talk turned to empty nesters making steps to downsize. The hosts, it turned out, were preparing to put their house on the market, and had been apartment hunting. However, they were discouraged. “How long do you think the waiting lists are to get into a good building in Kingston?” they asked.

No one knew. They answered their own question: “Two hundred. Three hundred. Even five freaking hundred!!!” Of course that’s just anecdotal. But the Stats Can projections bear out the argument. In large part due to immigration policy, but also taking natural increase into account, there is a widely acknowledged shortage in rental housing stock in Canada’s cities. This bodes well for the the cash flows and growth rates of well-run operators like Minto Apartment Real Estate Income Trust (REIT) of Ottawa. The founding Greenberg family is still running the business and they are best of breed, as is their portfolio of properties.

CLASS OF 2020 FIRST TERM REPORT CARD Solid start, Info Tech shines At the half-way mark in the 2020 academic year (July 1st to December 31st, 2019) the Class was up a respectable 7.3% vs. 4.2% for the TSX; 9.5% for the S&P 500; and 7.3% for the Dow. For the calendar year (January 1st to December 31st, 2019) the Class advanced a sparkling 22.1% vs. 19.1% for the TSX; 28.9% for the S&P 500; and 22.3% for the Dow. The Headmaster is reasonably pleased and offers the following first-term commentary: “We dodged a bullet in the energy sector with Enbridge making a nice recovery -- there should be more to come -- and the addition of Algonquin’s green energy portfolio to the Class. The pair were up 12.4%.” “Our Info Tech players -- Apple, Microsoft, Visa and Open Text -- once again led the pack with a sterling average return of 20%. Are they expensive? Arguably, yes. Could their run have exhausted itself? Quite possibly, in the short term. Am I considering replacing these Class leaders with new prospects? Absolutely not.” “Financials, represented by BlackRock, RBC, ScotiaBank and TD, held their ground, eking out a 1.4% average return. On the plus side, their valuations are quite attractive, a quality that is increasingly difficult to find in many parts of the market. That bodes well for future gains. As noted previously, BlackRock’s co-founder and CEO Larry Fink is an impressive guy, quite visionary and worth keeping an eye on. In his just published annual letter he is committing to exiting positions in environmentally unsustainable businesses. He is encouraging others to do the same. Coming from the head of the largest asset manager in the world ($7 trillion USD), that’s a meaningful nudge.” “Retail Class veterans Metro and Alimentation Couche Tard clocked a respectable 4.5%. While fully priced for now, they continue to benefit from wise acquisitions. There will be more to come. In particular, I’m following Couche Tard’s mating dance with Caltex, a fuel distributor and convenience store chain in Australia. If the deal goes through, it will be the largest in Couche Tard’s history and transformational for the company. If not, another deal will come along. Couche are patient buyers.” “Global fertilizers champ Nutrien was beaten up somewhat this past term, dragging the return for Resources down 11.2%. By comparison with key competitors like Mosaic, however, Nutrien is smelling like a rose, given the weak market conditions. All the while, wisely managed Nutrien continues to throw off cash and use it to buy back shares and pay a growing, nicely yielding dividend. With some cooperation in potash and nitrogen prices, I can see this Class member in positive territory by the end of the school year.” “Brookfield Infrastructure pulled up the Class average with a tidy 15.5% Infrastructure gain. What did the market like? Among other things, canny purchases of cell phone towers and a gas pipeline network in India. And data centres. This classmate is a master at recycling capital to deliver shareholder value. Translation: selling high; buying low.” “CNR, John Deere and CCL held the fort, almost, for Industrials, with an average return of - 4.1%. Each had to contend with headwinds of one form or another. For CNR, there was the strike; for Deere, the fallout from the US/China trade war in agriculture; for packager CCL, global trade would be a factor, but I also have nagging concerns about purely operational factors. More recent acquisitions have been slow to bear fruit. Let’s hope some of these issues will be resolved by next June.” “Healthcare desk-mates Amgen and Johnson & Johnson didn’t break a sweat over the past six months, registering an average gain of 17.8%. Do not be deterred by the multitude of talcum powder and opioid litigations J&J is facing. These are par for the course in the pharma world, and are already fully reflected in J&J’s still below par share price. Keep your eye on the business fundamentals. They are doing just fine.” “Telus, our lone but dependable Class member in Telecom, logged a 3.8% gain. Factor in the dividend yielding 4.6% and what’s not to like?” “Disney waves the Class flag for Entertainment, and what a flap it has created with the keenly awaited launch of its streaming service Disney +. Since its September debut, subscriptions have breached the 50 million mark and show no signs of slowing down (Netflix watch out). It’s enough to make a Headmaster proud. The stock is up an underwhelming 3.6% for the term. But put that in perspective: over the past 12 months, the House of Mouse has had a run-up of 31.9%. As is so often the case, the market anticipated the good news. Fear not; there should be more to come in the months and years ahead.” If you would like further information on any of the investing ideas raised in this issue, or a complimentary consultation, please call or email. CW

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socialattractionuk · 5 years

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People really like cheating on their partners at Christmas parties

(Picture: Phébe Lou Morson for Metro.co.uk)

Work Christmas parties aren’t just hotspots for office goss and actually interacting with the person who sits opposite you.

They’re also ripe breeding grounds for all kinds of naughtiness.

That naughtiness includes sex, and that sex includes cheating.

Yup, Christmas parties are very often where people embark on affairs or have one-off smooches with people who, um, aren’t their significant others.

That’s not just anecdotal – both Illicit Encounters and Ashley Madison report an increase in affairs over the Christmas party period.

Ilicit Encounters’ new survey of 1,000 people found that a third of people have cheated on a partner at Christmas, and that the work party is where an affair is most likely to start.

The site reports that the three week period starting from 3 December and going to Christmas Day is the peak time for cheating, ahead of summer holidays and New Year’s Eve.

57% of those surveyed who had been unfaithful said their affair was with a colleague, and that things had started getting naughty at the office party. 68% said they had cheated because they had got drunk and things had gone too far.

There’s a fairly even split between office party footsy turning into more and being a one time thing. 46% continued seeing their colleague romantically after Christmas.

There also tends to be some buildup before the big night, with 74% of those who cheated with a work colleague admitting to flirting with their hookup buddy in the run-up to festivities.

But while there may be early signs of an imminent cheating sesh, most people who get with someone at the office party don’t get caught – just 11% of the cheaters surveyed were discovered by their betrayed partner.

(Picture: Ella Byworth for Metro.co.uk)

Illicit Encounters spokesman Christian Grant said:’“Beware of the Christmas party season because it is a hotbed for affairs.

‘Sexual tensions which have been bubbling up over the course of the working year finally explode due to drink and the opportunity to grab a kiss under the mistletoe.

‘The good news for cheats is that they are very unlikely to get caught out if they start an affair at this time of year, though they are advised not to flaunt their new love in front of their colleagues.’

Research from another married dating site, Ashley Madison, backs up the idea that Christmas parties are a hotbed for cheating.

Their survey of over 1,600 members of their site found that 66% use the Christmas office party as the perfect time to have an affair with a coworker.

The cheaters say that working with a colleague all day creates an attraction to them, and 37% said they are attracted to someone they currently work with.

The majority of those who cheat at office parties say they do so because it’s a rare occasion that their partner isn’t there to see them behaving badly.

More: TV

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What are the songs and dances for the Strictly Come Dancing semi-final?

Schoolkids sing vile pro-Ku Klux Klan version of Jingle Bells in history class

Just because cheating at the office party is common, doesn’t mean it’s a good idea.

By having affair with a colleague you’re not only putting your relationship at risk, but also risking your job.

Dr Tammy Nelson, sex and relationship therapist and author of The New Monogamy: Redefining Your Relationship After Infidelity, says: ‘Don’t be a cliché. You don’t want to be that person who ends up on someone’s Instagram or Facebook feed caught in the act at the office holiday party with your boss or a coworker.

‘Watch how much you drink, and walk away if you feel uncomfortable. And don’t let a temporary attraction triggered by workplace festivities turn into a permanent mistake.

‘Office affairs can be more than just a bad career move. They could be a total boundary violation and even set you up for legal issues later on. No matter what side you’re on – the pursuer or the pursued – put down the eggnog and call an Uber or just sit this one out.’

Wise words.

MORE: How to hook up responsibly at the office Christmas party

MORE: What is Destroy Your Dick December?

MORE: We need to make legitimate forms of contraception feel less scary – not let young people faff around with the pull-out method

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tricialucido-blog · 6 years

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Kaufman and Kristoff’s “The Illuminae Files” pt. I

Hi there! This is my first attempt at blogging about books I’ve read for leisure. I was inspired greatly by the bookstagram and booktube communities in Instagram and YouTube, respectively, and while I enjoy seeing content from both platforms, I feel like there’s something else I want to see from book bloggers that’s currently not present in the content trend today. I’ve seen a few bloggers here and there whose content I really liked (a personal favorite is booktuber @LilyCReads), but I guess it’s high time I shared my personal sentiments and commentaries myself. I still don’t know where I want to take this, but starting somewhere is better than nothing amirite. Anyway, here goes.

Note: This is a spoiler-free review. Part II, which I will link here as soon as I’ve posted it, will most likely be full of spoilers because I will talk about the key themes and important quotes from the books. Beware and proceed with caution! :-)

Title: The Illuminae Files (trilogy); Illuminae (Book 1), Gemina (Book 2), and Obsidio (Book 3)

Authors: Amie Kaufman and Jay Kristoff

Genre: science fiction, military space opera, epistolary

Rating: 5/5 stars

Story Time! ✨

Before I dive right into the books, let me tell you guys a bit of a backstory. I’ve always enjoyed science fiction, especially space opera (a close contender is steampunk). Mind you, though, I wasn’t really part of the Star Wars crowd (I was more of a Harry Potter pre-teen) as I was growing up, so I can’t really point to the franchise as the origin of my interest. No, I’d say I started getting interested in the science part before I discovered that it could be fused with fiction. I loved encyclopedias and the annual almanacs when I was a kid, and up to this day it still baffles me a bit that I was that kind of kid before books and (eventually) the humanities dragged me into their fold. I was deeply fascinated by the heavenly bodies, and up until I realized I had acrophobia (fear of heights), I even wanted to be an astronaut. My venture into science fiction and its subgenres was a little less scholarly. I’m not ashamed to share that I fell in love with space opera through fan fiction, specifically an old X-Men fan fiction. That masterpiece really changed my reading experience.

It was my youngest sister, a bonafide bookstagram lurker, who introduced the Illuminae Files trilogy to me. All she said was, “It’s an epistolary. I think you’d like it,” and I was already purchasing the second book (she already bought the first one). This is where it gets kinda funny, because originally, I read Book 2 (Gemina) first before I picked up Book 1 again this summer. I read the words “...breaking up with her boyfriend” in the synopsis and I instantly got turned off haha! I easily dismissed Illuminae because I thought it was just another typical YA love story packaged differently (but ultimately still the same formula), and I was just so exhausted with the same old variations. For the record, I was wrong, okay. But anyway, my sister assured me that I wouldn’t miss much if I start withGemina (which, totally false) and that the spoilers were negligible (only because when I got “spoiled” in Gemina, I didn’t realize at the time the significance of what I found out ahead, and when I picked up Illuminae, I already forgot most of what happened in Gemina). [Story Time: End]

Now that story time is over, I just wanna point out that after typing this whole chunk of word vomit, I realized that I’m already so chatty and I haven’t even started on the books themselves! I swear, I’m only letting this run as long as this because it’s the first one, and I have a lot of behind-the-scenes anecdotes that I really want to share. I hope I don’t drive y’all away hahaha, so let’s just jump into the “review” part.

The Gist ✨

The year is 2575, half a millenium ahead of what constitutes as “today”. Human civilization has moved past the uncertainty of space explorations, of the search for the “second” Earth. Distant corners of the universe? Not so distant anymore. Space travel that spans light years? Now simply one “jump” away. For all the fancy technological advancements that humankind has achieved, they still aren’t beyond mass murder for the sake of money and resources. At least that’s what I gathered when megacorporation BeiTech Industries brutally massacred the citizens of a small far-flung colony called Kerenza IV, where there was a ongoing illegal mining of hermium, a precious resource in this universe. The trilogy revolves around the protagonists, victims and survivors of BeiTech’s brutal invasion, and their search for justice while fighting for their lives in the yawning emptiness of space. There are all sorts of characters within each book, including a Skynet AI, and all sorts of trouble as well.

Reactions 💖

Stylistics. As I’ve mentioned above, all three books are hashed out through a collection of files, chat logs, and video transcriptions to name a few. And duuuuuuude. Kaufman and Kristoff really did an incredible job with the lay-out of Illuminae Files--hats off to their entire team, there is no denying the genius behind their concept of what an epistolary is. It was exciting to dig into the books to examine every detail and every Easter egg that they left in each well-planned page. Although, I’ll be honest here, there were a few times that I really got confused and lost in the story--not in the sense that I was intensely absorbed with what was happening but rather, because there were a lot of details and clues to take in. It was easy to be overwhelmed by everything that was happening. Add the fact that there were events happening simultaneously, and were described in completely different media (this will make much more sense once you pick up the first book). I don’t consider it an entirely negative thing because the confusion really helped in blindsiding me from most of the major plot twists; in fact, I’d say I enjoyed the story more when my theories were debunked by the more awesome plot twists.

World-building and plot. Speaking of plot twists: the plot had some really well-placed surprises and shocks. I love that the romantic scenes were not distastefully added. In fact, instead of stealing the limelight from the major conflict as well as the science-and-technology “vibe” of the story, the romance further heightened the stakes that the protagonists were risking with every decision and plan they concoct.

The authors did not give us 600-pages of long-winding narratives (per book) and chunks of justified text divided into chapters--no. They gave their readers a feast of visual exercise and yet, using less words (than a standard 300-page novel) and hardly a clear-cut linear plot progression, they raised a lot of important questions that we could use some time to ponder on (more about these in Part II--beware of spoilers, though!). What I always look for in science fiction (and fantasy as well, for that matter) is a well-executed world-building. It doesn’t matter if the premise is unique if the author did not manage to back the novelty of their idea; sometimes, if the world-building is particularly lacking, it really puts me off from the plot itself. In the trilogy, it wasn’t a problem at all, which helped to make me more absorbed with all the adrenaline-infused twists upon twists in the story.

I also have to commend how well the authors incited reactions from their readers--at least in my reading experience. One particular conflict in Illuminae really gave me goosebumps and sent a chill down my spine (won’t elaborate haha you’ll know if you’ve read it!!). Ugh, remembering it as I type this has me shivering involuntarily again. Those were some real creepy scenes, I tell you.

Characters. Most of the protagonists (but not all) paired up in different points of the story, so it’s easy to view them as such: couples. I don’t think I hated any off the them, even with my initial avoidance in reading Illuminae because of Kady and Ezra’s established relationship; in fact, the romance between all of them turned out to be not overbearing at all. Having said that, I think it’s a great disservice to each character, especially the couples, to view them only within the confines of their relationship dynamics. Amie Kaufman and Jay Kristoff both did a great job in adding layers upon layers of character development of the protagonists; furthermore, they were not stingy in adding characters and giving them actual personalities, and even though at certain times the sheer amount of characters got really confusing, in the end I consider it a plus on their genius and detail-oriented world-building. These two did not hold back in conceptualizing and planning. They were good at deliberately leaving out certain information, that’s true, and they got me to believe that nothing was amiss--only to exclaim “oh shit…” when things finally fall into place.

On the other side of the spectrum, BeiTech’s foot soldiers were ruthless and machine-like, and performed well as villains; however, what I loved about Illuminae Files are the details that the authors added--seemingly inconsequential details that will make you pause for a bit and remember that these brutal murderers are just as human as the protagonists, that while it’s easy to view them as merely “BeiTech”, there are still individuals behind the uniforms and high-calibre assault weapons. These details will lead you to the thought that both villains and heroes experience the same spectrum of human emotions, and it is jarring and terrifying to be reminded that only a thin line divides the two “sides”.

Anyway, this is where I’ll end Part I.

Watch out for Part II soon, which I will link below as soon as I’ve posted it.

Wow. So that was a pretty intense word vomit. Apologies for being so chatty, and if you managed to read this until the very end, thank you so much! I’d love to know what your thoughts are, if you’ve read the trilogy or if you’re planning to), etc. Let me know if you liked this type of in-depth (read: intense and overboard) review or if you hated it haha! Leave a comment or hit my ask box and I’ll be happy to reply! Part II will be up soon. See you! <3

Photo credits:

Book covers | bumblebeerosee on Redbubble

Space | Jeremy Thomas on Unsplash

Space (2) | Max McKinnon on Unsplash

#tricialucido #feature book review #illuminae files #amie kaufman #jay kristoff #science fiction #space opera #epistolary

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gipstyles-blog · 6 years

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Whether you’re moving, getting new furniture/appliances, or simply decluttering, it can be hard to know how to dispose of large, unwanted items. The old ratty couch, the refrigerator that runs constantly and is as loud as a fighter jet, the unsafe trampoline taking up space in the backyard. (Yes, these are all examples of personal experience.) Can you just throw ‘em out to the curb and expect waste management to haul it away? Do you have found a way to get those things to a dump, only to pay an always-annoying fee to get rid of it?

In the midst of DIY plumbing upgrades and dying appliances, I’ve confronted this question a number of times in the last handful of months, and have been flummoxed about how to dispose of stuff that doesn’t just fit in your trash can. Below I’ll take you through some tips that will save you some time and hassle in getting rid of your bulk waste (though to be fair, it will still likely take some time and hassle — this is big ol’ stuff you’re trying to dispose of after all!).

1. Find out if your waste management/local scrap yard will take large items.

Find out if your trash company will indeed accept oversized items that are just placed at the curb on trash day. More often than not they don’t, but sometimes you get lucky and they do. You can sometimes find that info on their website, and sometimes you have to call. What you don’t want to do is just drag a couch out to the curb only to have the collectors totally ignore it, leaving you to just drag it back into the garage or basement.

Whether or not waste management will accept large pieces of junk is going to vary widely based on where you live. Sometimes you can call and schedule a special “bulk pickup,” but it’ll cost you, often between $50-$75. (Yikes!) Sometimes they’ll accept furniture items placed on the curb, but not appliances or anything with electrical components. In some places and with some waste management companies you can buy a special tag to attach to a bulky item and get it taken care of on your normal collection day (this is usually cheaper; can be just $10 per item for easily disposed of things like mattresses, tables, etc.).

Custom kitchen cabinets in various stages of installation base for island in center Installation of kitchen cabinets

Related to this are private companies that specialize in junk/garbage removal. Think 1-800-GOT-JUNK. Again, though, you’ll be paying for this service, and probably more than you want.

Scrap yards are another good option for anything composed of metal, but yet again, you’ll probably have to pay a small fee to get your large junk items picked up. If you can deliver them to a local scrap yard, though, you may even get paid. That can obviously be a big-time hassle, but it might be worth it.

If you have to pay a fee of any kind, it should be a last resort if none of the below options work for you.

2. If you’re replacing it with a new item, see if the old stuff can be hauled away.

If you’re getting new furniture or appliances delivered, many times those guys can haul away the old stuff at no extra charge. This is especially true for large appliances like refrigerators, laundry machines, etc. Be sure to either read the fine print with these arrangements or call the company ahead of time and see if there are any special provisions. When we had a new fridge and dishwasher installed, they hauled away the old ones for free, but for some odd reason, I had to uninstall the dishwasher and get it out from underneath the countertop myself.

This arrangement is less likely to be the case for furniture deliveries, but sometimes you can offer cash to coax those guys into taking the old stuff.

3. List the item online, even if it’s old and gross.

You wouldn’t believe the things you can list on Craigslist and get taken off your hands. If the price is “free,” you can get rid of literally almost anything (the exception, perhaps, being a bag of stinky diapers). The old toilet that only sort of works? I listed it on Craigslist and had a dozen offers overnight to come pick it up. Unsafe, duct-taped trampoline that was mentioned earlier? Same thing, and it was gone the next day. Beware that when you list things for free, you’re more likely to get people who will crap out on you and not show up or even return your emails. I’ve heard anecdotally that it’s actually better to put a price on things — even if it’s very small — just so the people responding have a little more skin in the game. I’ve not done this, but give it a shot if you aren’t having any luck at first.

This has become my go-to for getting rid of stuff that won’t fit in a trash can. List the oversized item on Craigslist or a local Facebook marketplace, and heck, maybe even make a little money on it.

4. Put it on the curb with a “free” sign.

This is the classic move of urban dwellers everywhere: put something out on the curb, turn around to walk back inside, and by the time you check on it from the window, it’s gone.

This method can definitely work sometimes, but only in certain scenarios. You really only want to do this with moderately-sized items. Chairs, file cabinets, small-ish tables, etc. Bigger than that, and people driving by won’t be able to just quickly stop and throw it in their vehicle (which is really what you’re going for). You also want to ensure you’re in a high-traffic area. If you live in a sleepy cul-de-sac, it’s not a good tactic.

With this move, you only want to give it a couple days, at most. Beyond that, you risk becoming a neighborhood pariah. Don’t be that guy. If you’ve stuck something out on the curb and it hasn’t been claimed after 1-2 days, try another tactic.

5. Donate it and get it picked up for free.

Especially in large cities, chances are good that thrift shops like Goodwill, Salvation Army, Arc, and others will pick up your items for free if they’re in decent condition. And Habitat for Humanity’s ReStore will pick things up like appliances, toilets, etc.

Use your good judgment here though; don’t pawn off a nasty couch onto Goodwill. Only utilize this option if it’s truly something that’s in good shape and could find a nice home with somebody else.utilize this option if it’s truly something that’s in good shape and could find a nice home with somebody else.

5 Ways to Get Rid of Old Furniture Whether you’re moving, getting new furniture/appliances, or simply decluttering, it can be hard to know how to dispose of large, unwanted items.

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lucasdibble56-blog · 6 years

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Which Is The greatest Console?

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Cognitive Biases: A Crash Course for the Millennial Mind

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Cognitive Biases: A Crash Course for the Millennial Mind

Cognitive biases are not inherently generational; that is to say, people of one generation aren’t implicitly more likely to experience a cognitive bias than another. This is because cognitive biases are the natural byproducts of how our brains function and are counterproductive features of thought patterns that might otherwise be useful.

For example, the “bandwagon effect” that makes us more likely to believe something that the people around us believe is just an unfortunate consequence of being wired to function socially within a group context.

That being said, some generations are more vulnerable to cognitive biases in specific areas of their lives, due to generational stereotypes or preexisting conditions. Accordingly, there are some cognitive biases that are especially dangerous for millennials — but fortunately, if you’re able to recognize and understand them, you can take specific measures to overcome them.

Confirmation bias.

Is it a stereotype that millennials love social media? Not exactly; 88 percent of millennials get news from Facebook on a regular basis, and 57 percent of them get news from it at least once a day. There’s nothing inherently wrong with this, and in fact, it can be advantageous; social media is what connects us together, and it’s one of the fastest ways to get new information.

Related: An Updated List of Facebook’s Algorithm Changes

Here’s the problem. Facebook and other social media platforms use news-feed algorithms to generate news-feed items it knows you want to see. It looks at past articles you’ve liked or reacted to, as well as articles shared by your in-groups, and it specifically curates articles that it thinks you’re going to like. This results in a kind of “echo chamber,” where you’re far more likely to see stories that already align with your preconceived notions and expectations than articles that challenge your perspectives.

This is especially harmful because of confirmation bias, which makes us unfairly value information that seems to prove concepts we already believe. Accordingly, it’s becoming more important than ever for millennials to question their assumptions, challenge their beliefs, and talk to people they disagree with — intentionally — to gain some new perspectives.

Self-serving bias.

Millennials often get grief for being self-entitled, or narcissistic. While many of those accusations are overstated, there is some evidence that millennials are more self-centered than their older generational counterparts when they were the same age. This self-centeredness can be a strength in some ways; it encourages self-reliance and independence. However, it also makes millennials especially vulnerable to self-serving bias.

Self-serving bias is a trap in thinking that makes us emphasize information that makes us ascribe our successes to our own abilities and skills, but ascribe failure to factors beyond our control. Anecdotally, you could see this bias come in to play if you hear one millennial homeowner talk about how they’ve achieved some degree of financial success due to their own hard work, and another millennial blame their inability to buy a home on a housing market that was destroyed before they got there.

Obviously, this bias affects more than just millennials; it’s probably affected everyone at some point. But millennials need to be especially careful navigating it, since they may be more vulnerable to self-esteem related biases.

Survivorship bias.

Millennials are a diverse group in terms of professional success. While there are many stories of millennial entrepreneurs achieving blockbuster success, we also know that millennial unemployment is in more than double the national average, at 12.7 percent (the last statistic on record from the Bureau of Labor Statistics).

Accordingly, we have many “unsuccessful” millennials looking to the successful ones as role models. This seems like a good thing, but it leaves you vulnerable to something called survivorship bias. Survivorship bias is essentially a sampling error; looking only at the successful members of a given group robs you of critical information about the members who failed.

Related: 28 Top Business Books to Get Ahead In 2018

A famous example of this comes from statistician Abraham Wald, who in World War II recommended putting extra armor on planes in locations where surviving crafts returning from battle had no bullet holes. This seemed counterintuitive; wouldn’t it make more sense to harden the areas that were being hit? In reality, the bullet holes proved the crafts could withstand shots in these locations and still survive. So, while they would never have information from the fallen planes to indicate exactly where “fatal” bullets struck, the bullet holes told them precisely where they were not, making the not-shot places where the fatal spots had to be.

For millennials, this means examining large sections of the population before making assumptions about what constitutes success or failure in this increasingly strange and demanding modern economy.

Other biases.

I’ve chosen to highlight just a few of the most important biases for millennials to consider, due to circumstances specific to millennials, but they represent just the tip of the iceberg. You may also be interested in researching and learning about some of these biases:

The availability heuristic, another sampling error that makes you overestimate the value of information in front of you, such as personal anecdotes.

Anchoring bias, which makes you fixated on the first piece of information you hear, like the first number thrown out in a salary negotiation.

Conservatism bias, which makes people value preexisting information over new information.

Pro-innovation bias, which ignores the flaws of innovation for the sake of progress.

Zero-risk bias, which makes us favor the most certain outcomes — even if they aren’t statistically the best choices.

There is no cognitive bias that is, by itself, unconquerable. Learning to recognize these biases and change your thinking to accommodate them may be difficult, but it’s certainly possible. Start paying attention to how these biases are affecting your life and career decisions, and always second-guess yourself; in many cases, your first reaction is just the byproduct of a flawed, evolutionarily developed brain.

Related: Entrepreneurs: Beware of the Marginal Thinking Trap

If you want to dig deeper into cognitive biases and related areas of psychology and self-improvement, I maintain an ever-expanding list of books over here that can help.

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