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UFC 212 Preview

WHAT'S HAPPENING: *Well, thank God that main event came through. UFC's Sunday morning offering from Stockholm wasn't a bad card, just...sort of plodding and pointless until hometown hero Alexander Gustafsson came out and had the best performance of his career, putting away Glover Teixeira in the fifth round. Teixeira was ridiculously tough, and given Gustafsson's history of big losses, there was always the possibility the Brazilian could've landed a huge blow, but for the most part, Gustafsson finally put his reach and his speed to optimal use, keeping Teixeira at a distance and just destroying him with combinations, including the barrage of uppercuts that finished the fight. The only downside was that Gustafsson would often back himself up and, when he was against the cage, decide to just turn his back and run away from Teixeira. That won't work whenever he faces someone who can catch him, but if it's this version of Gustafsson, I'm not sure who that guy is. Anyway, Gustafsson proposed to his girlfriend after the fight, so this night went about as well as possible as it could've for the Swede - and while I wouldn't pick him against Jon Jones or Daniel Cormier, Gustafsson looked good enough here that he suddenly finds himself, once again, as the top contender to the light heavyweight title. *The co-main also saw some moving and shaking in the light heavyweight division, as Volkan Oezdemir suddenly stopped all the jokes about him as quickly as he stopped Misha Cirkunov, knocking the top prospect out in just 28 seconds. Oezdemir had a top-five ranking coming into the fight based solely off a win over Ovince St. Preux, a fight where St. Preux looked horrible and probably still deserved to win the decision. So, most people expected Cirkunov to just run through Oezdemir and prove that ranking to be a fraud, but instead Cirkunov ran in for a clinch and got popped right behind the ear, falling to the mat unconscious. So, amazingly, Oezdemir is in the running for the next light heavyweight title shot after Gustafsson, as he's already been matched up against fellow top contender Jimi Manuwa on UFC 214. *If the most impressive performance of the night (well, day) wasn't Alexander Gustafsson, then it definitely belonged to Peter Sobotta, who got a stoppage victory of Ben Saunders after a one-sided round and a half. Sobotta was coming off a career-best performance against Nicolas Dalby, and that looks to be the trend - I thought Saunders's length and athleticism would give Sobotta problems, but Sobotta just showed off a vastly-improved striking game, forced Saunders to chase him, and just obliterated him on the feet. Unfortunately, Sobotta apparently broke his hand pretty badly in the fight, enough so that he apparently needs to have a bone removed from his hip to be put into said hand - really bad timing, given that UFC is running Sobotta's native Poland in October, and this would likely take him out of what one would presume was going to be a pretty prominent fight. *Not a ton else to report, as not much went vastly different than expected. Ghana's Abdul Razak Alhassan got exposed badly as a prospect in a weird fight against Omari Akhmedov - to date, Alhassan has just thrown bombs and knocked out his opponents as soon as possible, but this fight saw him pace himself for the first time in his career. And there's still a lot to like - Alhassan hits like a truck, and probably would've still knocked out most opponents, and while Alhassan didn't really gas, Akhmedov also exposed his complete lack of takedown defense. If Alhassan develops a well-rounded game, he'll be an amazing fighter, but I don't know if he can rack up enough wins to stay on the UFC roster in the meantime. Jack Hermansson ran through Alex Nicholson in just two minutes, fighting against his usual type as a distance striker and just taking down Nicholson and beating the piss out of him in an impressive performance. And the biggest result on the undercard was probably Damir Hadzovic's stunning upset of former Bellator title contender Marcin Held. Held was dominating the fight with his elite-level grappling game, but rolled in for a kneebar to start the third round and just ate a knee upside the head that rendered him immediately unconscious. That's now 0-3 in the UFC for Held, one of the more stunning busts of a hyped signing in a while, although if it wasn't for this fluky knee, or for him losing one of the worst decisions of the year against Joe Lauzon in January, we wouldn't be talking about any of this. One would think Held would be cut, but given his talent and that UFC is running Poland in October, the door might not be closed just yet. *Some other stuff happened. Debuting prospect Oliver Enkamp was game, but in over his head against Nordine Taleb, as Taleb's experience just won out over Enkamp's athleticism and willingness to throw whatever came to mind. Bantamweight prospect Pedro Munhoz beat Damian Stasiak, but showed off a lot of his weaknesses in the process - Munhoz struggled a bit with an evasive striker like Stasiak, and while Munhoz got things to the ground here and there, his signature submission game didn't look all that effective. Trevor Smith beat Chris Camozzi using wrestling in a horrible fight. Joaquim Silva rebounded from a rough first round to piece up Reza Madadi on the feet and earn a narrow decision - Madadi, a Swedish favorite, is now uncommitted about this being his retirement fight, as was expected. Sweden's Nico Musoke came back from a two-plus year injury layoff and had a fine, if kind of boring fight against Bojan Velickovic, until Velickovic stunned Musoke in the last minute and caused him to dance a bit before putting him away for the finish. And England's Darren Till continues to be a fun and interesting prospect after a win over Jessin Ayari - I love Till's upside, but him missing weight by six pounds here was fairly concerning. *Well, UFC from Stockholm wasn't the biggest MMA event in Europe over the weekend, and only by...about 45,000 people. KSW, the top promotion in Poland, drew 58,000 into a soccer stadium in Warsaw, which marks the second-biggest MMA crowd of all time. And yes, that's bigger than any UFC event ever - the record is 71,000, held by a PRIDE/K-1 co-promoted show in 2002 that was headlined by Mirko Cro Cop and Kazushi Sakuraba, and the UFC record is "only" 56,214 for the Rousey/Holm card in Australia. MMA in Poland's an interesting one - while UFC has historically focused on more potentially profitable countries like Sweden and Germany, it's Poland that has one of the biggest appetites for MMA, and we've seen that with a few decent fighters making their way into the UFC. But in Poland, thanks to the strength of local promotions like KSW, it's the Polish promotions that are really seen as the bigger deal, while global brands like UFC are fairly secondary. This may change if UFC gets a Polish male star that breaks through, and there's some noise in these numbers, but reports are that Joanna Jedrzejczyk's fights are only watched live by a few hundred people in Poland, and she's one of the most dominant fighters in the world. Just an interesting backdrop, particularly since UFC runs their second card in Poland this October. *So, women's featherweight continues to be a complete disaster. Champion Germaine de Randamie has now outright said that she refuses to fight Cris Cyborg, due to Cyborg's repeated drug test failures, and that she still might need hand surgery anyway. I mean, in a way she's not wrong, but you also could've told us this all a lot sooner. Anyway, de Randamie has said she's now focusing on a return to 135 and expects to be stripped of the belt, so...once again, what exactly are we accomplishing here? Apparently UFC may try again, as Cris Cyborg is apparently fighting...someone on UFC 214, though it apparently won't be Invicta champ Megan Anderson, who has already been announced for a future Invicta card. Word is that Cyborg's opponent will probably be Cat Zingano, which...please make that for an interim women's featherweight belt. I demand an interim belt in a division with only two fighters. *A few other things, but nothing that deserves an entire paragraph, so here's a rundown. Roy Nelson's loss to Alexander Volkov was apparently the last on his UFC contract, as "Big Country" has finished his contentious run with the company and signed with Bellator, which is an interesting get. Georges St. Pierre disclosed that an eye injury is what's keeping him from fighting Michael Bisping until later this year, as he apparently won't be cleared to train until September. Cortney Casey's big win over Jessica Aguilar at UFC 211 has been overturned, because Texas - Casey apparently had a slightly elevated T/E ratio, which may just be random noise, as she passed all her USADA drug testing, but that alone is enough to get a win overturned in Texas. UFC has gone outside the box, surprisingly signing Dutch kickboxing legend Gokhan Saki, despite Saki only having a 0-1 record in MMA. And Ronda Rousey will apparently be a coach on a revival of ABC's "Battle of the Network Stars" - hopefully she comes off better on that show than she did on TUF. ------ BOOKINGS: *So, UFC 214 is filling out nicely, as it's gotten the biggest fights announced over the last week. As mentioned above, Cris Cyborg is fighting....someone, and top light heavyweight contenders Jimi Manuwa and Volkan Oezdemir are squaring off. Plus top featherweight prospects Brian Ortega and Renato Moicano square off in a pretty great fight - Ortega looked excellent before being out with major shoulder surgery, and Moicano is coming off a win against Jeremy Stephens - and Sara McMann returns to take on Ketlen Vieira. McMann and Raquel Pennington seemed like a natural #1 contender's fight to me, but UFC has instead chosen to fast-track Vieira - this is probably too much, too soon, but as far as prospects go, Vieira might at least be strong enough to shut down McMann's wrestling and make things interesting. *UFC filled out some of their July cards. Somewhat surprisingly, UFC 213 isn't looked all that deep from a starpower perspective, as the biggest name added to the undercard is probably...Alan Jouban? And even then, UFC doesn't seem to know what to do with him - whenever he comes off a win, Jouban is featured fairly prominently, as he's coming off a co-main event against Gunnar Nelson, but when he comes off a loss, like he is here, UFC goes down the roster and just pulls out a guy for him to destroy. So in this case, Jouban is set up to destroy Brian Camozzi, who's coming off a debut loss to Randy Brown - I wonder if this is some weird deal where UFC is trying to get back at his brother for not learning takedown defense. Anyway, also slated for UFC 213, Jordan Mein, a former top prospect who, at this point, looks like he wants to be anywhere else but fighting, is facing the underrated Belal Muhammad, and Rob Font and Douglas Silva de Andrade face off in a pretty fun bout between bantamweight bangers. And Long Island got a few more fights to a card that, well, looks interesting but not exciting, if that makes sense. Case in point, Alex "Cowboy" Oliveira, an interesting prospect, will be facing Ryan LaFlare on this card - LaFlare's a fine test, but, just...eh. There are way more interesting options for Oliveira. Also on Long Island, Rafael Natal faces Italian prospect Alessio Di Chirico in what looks like a case of UFC trying to get Natal a win, and local welterweight Lyman Good returns from a two-year layoff to face Brazilian striker Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. Also, a fight between Corey Anderson and Tyson Pedro, which seemed interesting, is now off the card, as reports of it happening were a bit premature. *August and beyond are getting some stuff. The only card for August officially announced so far, the Moreno/Pettis card out of Mexico City, added three interesting fights. Flyweights Dustin Ortiz and Hector Sandoval square off in a veteran-versus-prospect fight, and TUF: Latin America 3 winner Martin Bravo gets his first post-TUF fight, dropping to featherweight to face Chris Gruetzemacher. Also, TUF: Latin America season one alums square off at bantamweight, as Mexico's Jose Quinonez faces Chile's Diego Rivas. Rivas is an interesting story - he knocked out top prospect Noad Lahat with a flying knee in a huge upset back in February of 2016, and then pretty much vanished. Well, as it turns out, Rivas actually had cancer, but he's apparently all clear now, even though in the process of treatment, he lost so much weight that he's now at bantamweight instead of featherweight. The Fight Pass card from Rotterdam has its main event, as the Netherlands' own Stefan Struve will take on Russia's Alexander Volkov in a battle of heavyweight giants. The locals are apparently not happy with this main, as they expected Gegard Mousasi against Luke Rockhold to top this card - but with Mousasi still negotiating a new contract and Rockhold a bit unhappy with the company at the moment, that just didn't get done. And UFC 216 in Edmonton has its first fight before UFC 215 has even been announced, as Halifax's Gavin Tucker, who looked excellent in his UFC debut this February, returns to take on Rick Glenn at featherweight. *And some other minor stuff here and there. Next week's card in Auckland has an undercard change, as Australian strawweight Nadia Kassem has pulled out of her UFC debut, so instead J.J. Aldrich will face Korea's Chan Mi Jeon, who becomes the youngest fighter on the UFC roster, as she was born in August of 1997. Eek. Singapore the week after has also seen an undercard change, as per Jingliang Li, his opponent, Jonathan Meunier, is out, so Li will instead face the debuting Frank Camacho, who becomes, best I can tell, the first UFC fighter out of the Northern Mariana Islands. Singapore also adds a bout between Lucie Pudilova and Ji Yeon Kim at bantamweight - UFC actually apparently initially targeted Kim to take on Holly Holm at this event, just to get Holm a win, before Holm's management demanded a bigger name, which turned out to be Bethe Correia. Lina Lansberg takes on Leslie Smith at bantamweight in Glasgow, in what should be a fun fight. And UFC is reportedly planning their first South American event outside of Brazil for sometime later this year, with Buenos Aires or Santiago being the two cities I've heard thrown out there. ----- ROSTER CUTS: 1) Roy Nelson (22-14 overall, 9-10 UFC, last fought 4/15/17, L vs. Alexander Volkov): And so ends the weird ballad of "Big Country", as the veteran heavyweight is off to Bellator. Nelson was regarded as one of the better heavyweights outside of UFC about a decade ago, but there were questions if the promotion would ever sign him thanks to his fat, slovenly appearance. So when Nelson was brought on for an all-heavyweight season 10 of TUF, he was regarded as the ringer of the group, though, amusingly, coaches Quinton Jackson and Rashad Evans didn't really seem aware of Nelson's rep and just didn't take him seriously. But Nelson won the season rather easily - and in the process, had a win over Kimbo Slice that is still one of the most-viewed fights on television of all-time - and from there, it was off to the races. A bit strangely, as soon as he got into UFC proper, Nelson completely abandoned his grappling game - which was always sort of his secret weapon, as nobody expected this super-fat dude to actually be a pretty great submission grappler - in favor of hunting for spectacular knockouts, and it actually kind of worked; while Nelson fell short against top contenders at the time, like Junior dos Santos, Frank Mir and Fabricio Werdum (wow, heavyweight hasn't changed all that much), Nelson's highlight reel of KOs and ability to take abuse made him one of the biggest fan favorites in the promotion. At some point in here, Nelson started to feud with UFC brass - namely Dana White, who didn't really take Nelson seriously and would chastise Nelson for not keeping himself in shape and being too much of a cartoon character. This all culminated with season 16 of TUF, which saw Nelson and Shane Carwin act as coached in a complete disaster of a season - the fights were awful, Carwin had absolutely no personality, and the whole season seemed to exist solely to bury Nelson for not being as smart as he thinks he is. And, well, with time, they weren't exactly wrong - while initially it seemed like Nelson was a deceptively smart and clever guy, as time has gone on he's sort of exposed himself as a dumb guy thinking he's a smart guy pretending to be a dumb guy. But anyway, TUF 16 ended, Nelson knocked out Matt Mitrione after Carwin had to retire due to injuries, and with another knockout win over Cheick Kongo, Nelson suddenly found himself as a top contender for the heavyweight title. And then he pretty much risked it all. UFC 161 was one of the first high-profile instances of someone fighting out their UFC contract - Nelson was taking on Stipe Miocic, and if Nelson won, he was probably getting a title shot and a huge new contract, and if he lost, he was losing all his leverage. And as it turns out, it was really bad timing for years of Nelson not taking care of himself to catch up to him, as he was suddenly too slow to get a big knockout, and lost a one-sided decision. And that was pretty much the end of Nelson being pretty good - he got wins over decrepit versions of Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Antonio Silva, plus a scared Jared Rosholt, but the Miocic loss started a run where Nelson lost seven of ten fights and just started circling the drain. In his last few fights, Nelson even started relying on his wrestling again, and even had some success getting opponents to the mat, but at this point, he's just too slow and unathletic to do anything but hold his opponent there, so that hasn't really accomplished anything. So, yeah, it's been a bit of a depressing end to Nelson's UFC career - though, hey, the state of the Bellator heavyweight division is such that Nelson may yet be able to make an impact there. Plus we can get that Cheick Kongo rematch. 2) Roan Carneiro (21-11 overall, 4-5 UFC, last fought 2/11/17, L vs. Ryan LaFlare): Roan Carneiro is out of the UFC once again, as the two sides apparently couldn't agree on terms for a new contract. At least this run went better than the first one - Carneiro came into UFC about a decade ago as a highly-touted grappler, but didn't really accomplish much, even getting tapped out by Kevin Burns, both an embarrassing result and one of the biggest upsets of 2008. After getting cut following another loss, Carneiro fought rather sparingly - I'm not really sure when Carneiro became a grappling coach at American Top Team, but that surely took attention away from his fight career - but got back on the MMA radar in 2014, thanks to BattleGrounds MMA. BattleGrounds MMA actually ran a pay-per-view, commentated by wrestling legend Jim Ross and legend in his own mind Chael Sonnen, built around an eight-man tournament for a fifty grand cash prize. Anyway, Carneiro won the tournament - and apparently bankrupted BattleGrounds MMA in the process, as the promotion hasn't run another event - and when a spot opened opposite Mark Munoz on a card the following February, Carneiro got the call, and somewhat shockingly managed to choke Munoz out in just a shade under two minutes. And, well, that was the highlight of Carneiro's second UFC run - after another long layoff, Derek Brunson obliterated him, and then Carneiro went 1-1 in two fairly unmemorable fights. I can see why the two sides couldn't agree on money - Carneiro could be a valuable gatekeeper, but his fights can be fairly dull, so I understand why UFC wouldn't try too hard to keep him around. 3) Sam Sicilia (14-8 overall, 5-7 UFC, last fought 2/19/17, L vs. Gavin Tucker): Speaking of gatekeepers. Sam Sicilia made his name on TUF 15 alongside friend and training partner Michael Chiesa, and while Chiesa won the season and became a lightweight contender, Sicilia started carving out a niche as a featherweight striker. And, well, save a weird fight with Yaotzin Meza in 2015, where Sicilia decided to suddenly grapple his way to victory, Sicilia pretty much looked like a striker out of a camp best known for developing submission artists, as Sicilia never really evolved or was able to adjust within fights. Every once in a while he'd get a knockout over a Godofredo Pepey or an Akira Corassani to stick around, but for the most part he was used to either have a fun mid-card action fight or test an up-and-coming prospect. And at this point, we were hitting the point of diminishing returns, even with that role, as Doo Ho Choi obliterated him, and Sicilia didn't really show much against Gabriel Benitez or Gavin Tucker. So, this was probably the right call, and frankly Sicilia did well to even have this long of a UFC run for someone so one-dimensional. 4) Michinori Tanaka (11-3 overall, 2-3 UFC, last fought 2/4/17, L vs. Ricardo Ramos): A fairly disappointing cut here, since Tanaka has enough talent to stick on the roster, and a bit strange given that UFC is running Japan in September while rapidly running out of Japanese fighters. Japanese MMA has been in a weird spot for a while now, falling behind a bit due to outdated training methods, but a wave of Japanese prospects a few years back was supposed to come in and change all that, headed by Kyoji Horiguchi (who's since succeeded enough he got paid huge money to return to Japan), Ulka Sasaki, and Michinori Tanaka. And while Tanaka impressed greatly in his UFC debut against Roland Delorme, that momentum halted almost immediately, as Tanaka then lost to Kyung Ho Kang in a fight that showed just how physically outmatched Tanaka was as a bantamweight. Plus, to add insult to injury, Tanaka also failed a drug test and was suspended for nine months because of an over-the-counter allergy medication. Tanaka returned in 2016 with a narrow win over Joe Soto that impressed, but Tanaka got a tough draw against veteran grappler Rani Yahya, and then followed that up with a close loss to top Brazilian prospect Ricardo Ramos. Tanaka looked game in both losing efforts, so, again, I'm a bit surprised he's gone - though he can probably get more money fighting back in Japan, and that might also be at play here. 5) Mike De La Torre (14-7 [1] overall, 2-4 [1] UFC, last fought 4/8/17, L vs. Myles Jury): Not a ton to say about the other "El Cucuy", except that his all-offense approach resulted in the occasional fun decision - like his debut loss to Mark Bocek or win against Yui Chul Nam, but often saw De La Torre get obliterated within the first round. And after Godofredo Pepey and Myles Jury each took care of De La Torre in under four minutes, UFC cut bait. 6) Rich Walsh (9-5 overall, 2-4 UFC, last fought 11/26/16, L vs. Jonathan Meunier): "Filthy Rich" Walsh was the standout of the Australian half of the cast on TUF: Nations, but that wasn't saying much, as the Canadian team pretty much rolled to victory. But while some guys like Jake Matthews and Dan Kelly eventually evolved, Walsh just kind of didn't - he could be a solid action fighter, but his decent mix of skills just didn't really seem to be a match for anyone with a gameplan, as Walsh just kind of didn't really adjust and...did stuff. And frankly, while Walsh did try to evolve a bit as a fighter, it just sort of made his fights more boring - I'm a bit surprised Walsh didn't get a last chance on, say, next week's card in Auckland, but sometimes fighters you have hopes for just don't pan out. 7) Viscardi Andrade (18-6 [1] overall, 2-1 [1] UFC, last fought 3/19/16, NC vs. Rich Walsh): Andrade had a decent amount of success for someone who really left no impression. An alum of TUF: Brazil 2, Andrade got a quick win over Bristol Marunde in his UFC debut, then got a prominent main card spot where he spit the bit and lost a clear decision to Nico Musoke. After that, Andrade broke his leg in a training accident, then upon recovery, got two fairly unmemorable undercard wins over Gasan Umalatov and Rich Walsh to stay afloat. But after the Walsh fight, Andrade's drug test got flagged, and after a drawn-out appeals process, Andrade got served with a two-year suspension by USADA. I'm assuming that's why Andrade got cut or let go or whatever - UFC's contracts are typically four fights, and if a guy can't fight for two years, there's no point in keeping him around, particularly for someone as, frankly, unmemorable as Andrade. 8) Guangyou Ning (5-4-1 overall, 2-2 UFC, last fought 11/26/16, L vs. Marlon Vera): And this marks the last of the TUF: China cast members to get cut, and frankly, it's a bit of a surprise it took three years. UFC went gung-ho into China in 2014 without realizing they'd go nowhere without government backing, and part of that was TUF: China, a season full of horrible fights and unintentional comedy whose featherweight bracket was won by Ning, who at 32, wasn't even much of a prospect. To his credit, Ning actually did improve greatly - his early UFC fights just saw him circle at a ridiculous range while trying to dive in for a knockout, and he started to develop a bit of a functional MMA game, but it's not like it ever developed into anything at a UFC level. UFC does seem to be thinking about China once again after signing Guan Wang to feature prominently on the upcoming Singapore card, so I'm a tad bit surprised they cut Ning, but he's also not going to be that potential star anyway, so it's understandable. 9) Reginaldo Vieira (13-5 overall, 1-2 UFC, last fought 2/19/17, L vs. Aiemann Zahabi): Well, TUF: Brazil 4 was officially a washout. While the lightweight bracket was won by an actual prospect, Glaico Franca, who was a surprising cut a few months back after being rushed into some tough fights, the bantamweight bracket was won by Reginaldo Vieira. Vieira was more low-upside regional vet than prospect, and to add insult to injury, the decision he got was fairly undeserved and over Dileno Lopes, an actual top bantamweight talent. Vieira immediately lived down to expectations, getting tapped by Marco Beltran, but he actually had a fairly impressive performance against Canadian prospect Aiemann Zahabi that suggested Vieira could be a solid gatekeeper against debuting talent. Vieira actually could've won that decision against Zahabi, but the judges went the other way, and so the Brazilian's UFC career is over. 10) Garreth McLellan (13-6 overall, 1-4 UFC, last fought 3/11/17, L vs. Paulo Borrachinha): Garreth McLellan pretty much followed in the mold of the other South African fighters UFC has signed over the years, washing out fairly quickly. Similar to Australia, but at a lower level, South Africa is a circuit that doesn't have many wrestlers, so any amount of wrestling talent can get you a ton of success there, and that's what happened with McLellan. But, well, pretty much everyone in UFC can wrestle, so once these guys get signed, their entire game more or less falls apart without that wrestling to fall back on. McLellan did earn a come-from-behind win over Bubba Bush, but past that McLellan didn't have much success outside of showing that he can take a lot of damage - and, well, when that's your takeaway, things aren't going well. 11) Alessandro Ricci (10-5 overall, 0-2 UFC, last fought 2/19/17, L vs. Paul Felder): Alessandro Ricci was a solid enough vet, but a bit of a surprising signing last year, as the Ontario native was part of UFC's apparent decision to sign any Canadian talent possible for a show in Vancouver last August. Ricci didn't show much in a loss to Jeremy Kennedy, but figured to have a better time of things against Mexico's Alvaro Herrera, who also hadn't really shown much, for his next fight. But then Herrera got hurt, and UFC instead decided to put Ricci against Paul Felder, who's, you know, actually really good. Ricci did show some decent striking in a fight that was fun while it lasted, but then Felder used his elbow to break Ricci's nose, and things ended about as poorly as possible for Ricci. 12) Daniel Jolly (5-2 overall, 0-2 UFC, last fought 2/4/17, L vs. Khalil Rountree): We never really got to see what Daniel Jolly had to offer at a UFC level, which, well, I guess wasn't much. Jolly was signed as a late-notice replacement for top prospect Misha Cirkunov to debut against, and Cirkunov, rather unsurprisingly, handled him rather easily. After a long layoff, Jolly got the call to face Khalil Rountree, and had the right idea by trying to take Rountree down, but in going for the takedown, Rountree uncorked a knee that put Jolly out in under a minute, and so ends Jolly's UFC career. 13) Alex Enlund (14-2 overall): Enlund's a rare cut who never got the chance to fight in UFC, as the top British featherweight was signed for a fight on the Hamburg card this past September, but was pulled from the bout for undisclosed reason that, well, have now been disclosed. According to Enlund, his pre-fight medicals got flagged because of a possible tumor on his brain stem, and a follow-up appointment a few months later showed no additional growth, but still suggested that Enlund probably shouldn't fight again. Enlund was then referred to a neurologist, who pretty much cleared Enlund to fight, as the lesion didn't really appear to be a major deal and was likely something that had been there since birth. But, at some point during all this, UFC terminated Enlund's contract, so he's no longer with the company. Enlund has a few more scans left to go, which seem to be precautionary, and while it's unclear at this point if he plans to continue fighting, judging from the statement he put out, he seems to be in a pretty good place. So, good on him. ----- UPCOMING UFC SHOWS: 6/10 - UFC Fight Night 110 - Auckland, New Zealand - Mark Hunt vs. Derrick Lewis, Derek Brunson vs. Daniel Kelly 6/17 - UFC Fight Night 111 - Singapore, Singapore - Bethe Correia vs. Holly Holm, Andrei Arlovski vs. Marcin Tybura, Colby Covington vs. Dong Hyun Kim, Rafael dos Anjos vs. Tarec Saffiedine 6/25 - UFC Fight Night 112 - Oklahoma City, OK - Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Lee, Tim Boetsch vs. Johny Hendricks, B.J. Penn vs. Dennis Siver 7/7 - TUF 25 Finale - Las Vegas, NV - Justin Gaethje vs. Michael Johnson 7/8 - UFC 213 - Las Vegas, NV - Amanda Nunes ( c ) vs. Valentina Shevchenko, Yoel Romero vs. Robert Whittaker, Donald Cerrone vs. Robbie Lawler 7/16 - UFC Fight Night 113 - Glasgow, Scotland - Gunnar Nelson vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio, Joanne Calderwood vs. Cynthia Calvillo 7/22 - UFC on Fox 25 - Uniondale, NY - Kelvin Gastelum vs. Chris Weidman, Dennis Bermudez vs. Darren Elkins, Thomas Almeida vs. Jimmie Rivera 7/29 - UFC 214 - Anaheim, CA - Daniel Cormier ( c ) vs. Jon Jones, Jimi Manuwa vs. Volkan Oezdemir, Chan Sung Jung vs. Ricardo Lamas 8/5 - UFC Fight Night 114 - Mexico City, Mexico - Brandon Moreno vs. Sergio Pettis 9/2 - UFC Fight Night 115 - Rotterdam, Netherlands - Stefan Struve vs. Alexander Volkov 9/9 - UFC 216 - Edmonton, AB - Rick Glenn vs. Gavin Tucker ----- UFC 212 - June 3, 2017 - Jeunesse Arena - Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Well, while this should be a pretty fun show, it's definitely on the B-level in terms of pay-per-views, as it's pretty much a two-fight card. Not for lack of trying, though - this was rumored to be the initial landing for the Amanda Nunes/Valentina Shevchenko rematch that, as it turns out, will headline UFC 213, and there's been the well-documented process of Kelvin Gastelum being pulled from his fight with Anderson Silva because of a weed test, only for Silva to turn down potential fights with Luke Rockhold, Vitor Belfort, Ovince St. Preux, and some other names that I'm sure I'm forgetting. But as is, this sort of reminds me of the inverse of the last card UFC ran, the Belfort/Gastelum show from Fortaleza this past March - whereas that was a shockingly deep card for a FS1 show that just needed a more compelling main event, this one features one of the best title fights UFC can put on at the moment, a solid contender's bout at strawweight, and then...a whole bunch of nothing, except Belfort's retirement fight...maybe? I mean, I like Oluwale Bamgbose, but jeez. I mean, that main event is worth your money alone, given that it's an all-time great against a shockingly complete contender coming off an amazing win streak, but, well, that main event alone is really all that's worth your money. MAIN CARD (Pay-Per-View - 10:00 PM ET): Featherweight Championship: (C) Jose Aldo vs. (IC) Max Holloway Women's Strawweight: (#1) Claudia Gadelha vs. (#2) Karolina Kowalkiewicz Middleweight: (#11) Vitor Belfort vs. Nate Marquardt Middleweight: Oluwale Bamgbose vs. Paulo Borrachinha Welterweight: Yancy Medeiros vs. Erick Silva PRELIMINARY CARD (Fox Sports 1 - 8:00 PM ET): Bantamweight: (#3) Raphael Assuncao vs. Marlon Moraes Middleweight: Antonio Carlos Junior vs. Eric Spicely Bantamweight: (#10) Johnny Eduardo vs. Matthew Lopez Bantamweight: (#13) Iuri Alcantara vs. Brian Kelleher PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass - 6:30 PM ET): Women's Strawweight: Jamie Moyle vs. Viviane Pereira Welterweight: Luan Chagas vs. Jim Wallhead Flyweight: Deiveson Alcantara vs. Marco Beltran THE RUNDOWN: Jose Aldo (26-2 overall, 8-1 UFC, 8-0 WEC) vs. Max Holloway (17-3 overall, 13-3 UFC): I think Conor McGregor knocking Jose Aldo out in just thirteen seconds might be the most stunning moment I've ever seen as a fight fan. Not because McGregor backed up his considerable trash talk, not because it was the fastest finish in UFC title fight history, but mostly because Aldo had looked so damn invincible up to that point. I don't even know where to start with Aldo - probably his eight-second knockout of Cub Swanson in 2009 that earned him a WEC title shot, and the subsequent victories over Mike Brown and Urijah Faber that cemented him as the best featherweight in the world. And from there, Aldo never really got tested - a title defense against Mark Hominick, Aldo's first UFC fight, was closer than it needed to be thanks to a brutal weight cut, and past that, most of Aldo's fights were one-sided, but never really blowouts mostly because of Aldo's own choice. Aldo's regarded as one of the best defensive fighters of all-time, and after shutting down opponents for a round or two, Aldo rarely saw fit to do anything but coast, and just continue pitching a shutout - in fact, of all his UFC title defenses, only the first Chad Mendes fight was a clean finish, as I don't really count the Chan Sung Jung fight, where Aldo swarmed Jung after Jung dislocated his shoulder. So Aldo just reigned over featherweight, undefeated for over a decade, in the conversation with Jon Jones and Demetrious Johnson as the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world. And then came McGregor. Most hoped that McGregor's personality and trash talk would bring out the star in Aldo, similar to what Chael Sonnen did for Anderson Silva - taking an immensely talented, non-English speaking champion who was among the pound-for-pound greats, and provide enough of a foil to get people to care about both guys. And, well, McGregor did that, but when the time came for the fight at UFC 194, instead of an all-time great war to continue the rivalry, we just got one of the most stunning results in UFC history, solely for how it played out. Aldo didn't return for a few months, and come UFC 200, there were a ton of questions about how Aldo would rebound from one of the most crushing losses in the hospital of the sport - and, well, Aldo may have looked better than ever, as he pretty much dictated things against Frankie Edgar, who looked like a complete wrecking ball both before and after that fight. Aldo just shucked off all of Edgar's takedowns, and from there just essentially played matador, as after about a round to warm up, Aldo was just evading Edgar's strikes and using angles perfectly to counter. The win earned Aldo an interim title and a shot at McGregor, but, about that - it doesn't look like the Irishman is coming back down to featherweight anytime soon. And in fact, thanks to a whole mess involving fights falling through and UFC needing a belt to draw on pay-per-view, Aldo has since been promoted to outright champ, and your new interim champ is Hawaii's Max Holloway. It's rare to see things click for a prospect as beautifully as they have for Holloway - originally a lanky twenty-year old reliant on big strikes, sort of like a starter kit version of Anthony Pettis, Holloway showed a bunch of potential, but it looked like UFC was losing the plot a bit in 2013 when it came to bringing him along. First, Holloway got thrown against fellow rising prospect Dennis Bermudez and lost a narrow decision, and then put Holloway against McGregor in McGregor's big stateside debut, a weird fight where McGregor tore his ACL early on and then surprisingly dominated using wrestling. Then it was time for the young Hawaiian to rehab his career, and, well, did he ever. Holloway went 4-0 in 2014, finishing four lower-level foes, and then broke out with an April 2015 win over Cub Swanson, a fight that looked fairly even coming in but turned into Holloway outboxing the savvy vet with some beautiful footwork and combinations before jumping on a guillotine for the win. From there, it was basically just a case of keeping Holloway busy while the featherweight title picture sorted out, and wondering when Holloway got his shot - Charles Oliveira, Jeremy Stephens, Ricardo Lamas, Anthony Pettis, all potential contenders to make a move at featherweight, and none of them had any answer for Holloway. So now Holloway's interim champ, he's riding a ten-fight win streak, he's an absolute machine, and, somehow, he's only 25 years old, as he was one of the youngest fighters on the UFC roster when he was signed. So, yeah, this is one of the best fights UFC can make in any division, pitting an all-time great against a contender who's firing on all cylinders, and as far as how it's going to go, I just want to throw up my arms and just tell everyone to enjoy it. Both guys are going to look to keep it standing - while Aldo has a grappling background, we almost never see it, and while Holloway has some submission skills of his own, he's relied more and more on his kickboxing, only going for the choke when he's knocked down a stunned opponent. And from there, I'm not really sure how things are going to interact - Aldo will have his signature vicious leg kicks, even if he has seemed to get away from them a bit, and I'm not really sure how Aldo's defense and elusiveness will be able to fare against the length and skilled combination striking of Holloway. Edgar was able to hit Aldo a bit in the early parts of their fight, and Edgar isn't nearly as fleet or venomous on the feet as Holloway, so that may favor Holloway, but at the same time, Aldo did adjust, and McGregor fight aside, Aldo's in the same sort of territory as Demetrious Johnson and other all-time strategic greats, where you pretty much always have to count on their ability to adapt and find a path to victory - particularly if Aldo's form from the Edgar fight holds and his loss to McGregor has sort of lit a fire under the champ and allowed him to refocus. I feel like kind of a fool for doing this, but even with all the praise I've heaped on Aldo, I'm picking Holloway, since his game is just clicking at a ridiculously high level, and I have faith in him to be able to chase down Aldo, and essentially just keep throwing combinations at such a pace that some of it will break through Aldo's defenses and allow him to win rounds. Though honestly, my real prediction is an all-time classic and a fight we'll want to see again - just enjoy it. Claudia Gadelha (14-2 overall, 3-2 UFC, 1-0 Invicta) vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (10-1 overall, 3-1 UFC, 1-0 Invicta): A really interesting fight here, even though I'm not really sure where it leads in the short term - Claudia Gadelha and Karolina Kowalkiewicz, particularly Gadelha, have given Joanna Jedrzejczyk her two toughest title defenses as champion, but losses are still losses, and UFC has been loathe to do title rematches recently. But in a division rapidly lacking challengers, either woman could easily be back in title contention sooner than expected, and again, it's an interesting fight on top of that. Jedrzejczyk and Gadelha have pretty easily had the best feud in women's strawweight history thus far - their first fight in 2014 was a nip-tuck affair that consensus said Gadelha won, but Jedrzejczyk got the narrow decision and then proceeded to obliterate Carla Esparza, win the strawweight title, and lord over the division. From there, the two wound up coaching season 23 of TUF, which was one of the better seasons in a while as far as a good, old-fashioned blood feud, as the two obviously have grown to hate each other. Then their rematch was one of the best fights of 2016, an epic battle that saw Gadelha surprisingly take advantage early using her grappling and takedowns, only to gas out and drop the latter stages of the fight, as well as a clear decision. But the rivalry isn't over, at least where Gadelha's concerned - a lot of people gave her flack for not understanding that a lot of Jedrzejczyk's trash talk was just to sell the fight, but, well, you can't exactly expect to tell a Brazilian woman to "go back to the jungle" and then have everything be cool. So Gadelha still has unfinished business, and hopefully their second fight was good enough that UFC doesn't balk from a trilogy fight, like Demetrious Johnson and Joseph Benavidez - but before all that, Gadelha has to get past Jedrzejczyk's countrywoman, Karolina Kowalkiewicz. The parallels between Jedrzejczyk and Kowalkiewicz are kind of funny - they're both from Poland, they both came up through Muay Thai, hell, the two even faced off in Kowalkiewicz's lone amateur fight, but when Kowalkiewicz made her UFC debut in December of 2015, expectations were that she'd be a fun roster addition rather than a future contender, thanks to her relative lack of athleticism. But Kowalkiewicz wound up establishing herself as a title challenger within a year - after two decent wins, she was the obvious b-side in a #1 contender's fight against Rose Namajunas, but wound up using her clinch-work to take a fairly clear decision and earn a title shot at Jedrzejczyk in Madison Square Garden. That fight wound up being a mixed bag - it was a dominant Jedrzejczyk performance for most of it, but Kowalkiewicz did manage to nail the champ as hard as anyone has, rocking her in the fourth round, even if Kowalkiewicz's complete lack of finishing power meant she couldn't end the fight. At its core, this seems like a fairly basic striker-versus-grappler fight - while Kowalkiewicz may not be that intimidating, she's technically proficient and ridiculously tough, and she fights like someone who knows she can't be hurt. So as much as Gadelha's striking has improved over the time, unless there's been another giant jump (entirely possible, since Gadelha sort of went off and formed her own camp before her last fight), Kowalkiewicz should be able to handle things on the feet, so Gadelha should be looking to use her strength and physicality and take things to the floor. The good news is that Gadelha might be the most powerful grappler in the division, but the bad news is that Kowalkiewicz has been surprisingly effective in the clinch thus far. Hell, that's what won her the Namajunas fight - whenever Namajunas moved inside and into the clinch, Kowalkiewicz just ate her alive with her Muay Thai skills, destroying her with knees and basically being surprisingly strong, which combined with her ability to take a punch makes Kowalkiewicz one of the more unassuming, yet indestructible fighters on the roster. So it really comes down to who gets the best of things in the clinch, which should dictate where the fight takes place - again, Kowalkiewicz has been sneakily great with her ability to just stay standing and make opponents who, on paper, should be more powerful pay for trying to take her down, but Gadelha might be the best in the division at doing what so many have failed to do. This could go either way, but I'll actually go with the minor upset and say Kowalkiewicz is able to keep things standing, make Gadelha pay in the clinch, and win a narrow decision, even though Gadelha will surely have her moments. Vitor Belfort (25-13 [1] overall, 14-9 [1] UFC, 5-3 PRIDE, 0-1 Strikeforce) vs. Nate Marquardt (35-17-2 overall, 13-10 UFC, 1-1 Strikeforce): Well, Anderson Silva's not on the card anymore, but at least the Brazilian faithful will get the retirement fight of Vitor Belfort...maybe? Since his loss (well, no contest) to Kelvin Gastelum, Belfort angled for his retirement fight on this card, but in the last few weeks, Belfort has since suggested that this'll only be his last UFC fight, and he has many tests left for him in the future, most of which he named are fellow aging name fighters that all happen to be in Bellator. Hint, hint. Post-TRT Belfort's been a weird one, as he's looked good in spots and still seems technically sound, but his signature aggression has pretty much left him, and he's mostly been offered up as a sacrifical lamb for guys like Gastelum, Gegard Mousasi, and Jacare Souza. At least thankfully this time he gets a step down in competition against Nate Marquardt, who at 38 years old and almost two decades into his career himself, might be close to his own retirement fight. Marquardt looked absolutely shot for the vast stretches of his UFC return, going 1-4, but he's actually been fairly solid lately, scoring knockout wins over C.B. Dollaway and Tamdan McCrory in two of his last four fights. Admittedly, he's still at a disadvantage against younger athletes, and he's pretty much reduced to being an opportunist if his opponent offers up the chance for a knockout blow, but that's still viable enough and way better than he previously looked. I have no idea how to read this one, since it's kind of hard to peg Belfort - he hasn't had much success lately, but it's hard to tell how much of that is his reduced skillset and how much of that is being thrown in there with what might be three of the best five or six middleweights in the world at the moment. Either guy could knock the other out at any moment - half because each guy has always had power, and half because each guy is old enough that they could crumble fairly easily - but I kind of fear the worst for this bout, that Belfort isn't able to pull the trigger enough anymore to get a quick finish, but won't offer up enough opportunities for Marquardt to take advantage and do anything. But I still sort of trust Belfort to do more, so, amazingly, I'm going to pick Belfort to win a decision, which would be weird, given that Belfort hasn't gone to a division since 2007, and all of his UFC wins save one have come via first round finish - and even the odd one out was a second round finish of Michael Bisping. But, hey, Belfort's always made a habit of being weird and surprising, so what better way to go out than that. Oluwale Bamgbose (6-2 overall, 1-2 UFC) vs. Paulo Borrachinha (9-0 overall, 1-0 UFC): Well, being this high on the card probably means that UFC sees something in TUF: Brazil 3 alum Paulo "Borrachinha" Costa. And there's stuff to like about Costa - while he showed nothing on a TUF run that came just three fights into his career, his MMA career thus far is nine up, nine down, all via first round knockout. And that last one at least proved he could do it on somewhat of a UFC level, as he more or less annihilated Garreth McLellan, who if nothing else is a durable guy, in just 77 seconds. But, of course, getting everyone out of there so quickly raises a bunch of questions, particularly how the heavily muscled Borrachinha will hold up past the first round, and the returns from that lone TUF fight aren't that good, since he gassed pretty badly and hasn't really learned to pace himself since. Anyway, none of this may matter against Oluwale Bamgbose, who has a lot of the same problems as Costa. Bamgbose is a memorable character - dude calls himself the "Holy War Angel", has a cross shaved into the back of his head, and does a ton of histrionics and praising of the Lord, as he's using his purse money to build churches in his native Nigeria. But Bamgbose is a similar first-round-or-bust fighter - before the UFC, he was also undefeated with five first round knockouts, and that really seems to be all he has to offer - while he hasn't shown signs of gassing as badly as Costa has, Bamgbose has been completely helpless as soon as he's been put on his back, as Uriah Hall tripped him and was able to pound him out shortly thereafter, and Cezar Ferreira relied on his wrestling to take Bamgbose out of the first round for the first time, and win a grinding decision. Borrachinha may have a secret weapon here if he decides to use it - while none of his recent fights have shown any of this, his TUF fight saw him do some clinching and actually work for submissions, so if he chooses to fight completely against type, he might be able to get a quick submission or at least avoid danger against Bamgbose and coast to an easy win. But more than likely, these two dudes are throwing down, and from there it's kind of a pick 'em, even if I do favor Bamgbose with his speed, reach, and arsenal of kicks. So, given how both guys win, I guess I'll pick Bamgbose by first-round knockout, though I expect a weird, fun sprint that could go either way. Yancy Medeiros (13-4 [1] overall, 4-4 [1] UFC, 2-0 Strikeforce) vs. Erick Silva (19-7 [1] overall, 7-6 UFC): I do like the positioning of Paulo Costa and Erick Silva back-to-back on this card, since Silva's sort of a cautionary tale when it comes to hot prospects. Silva looked amazing when he made his UFC debut in 2012, destroying opponents in the first round, but after a while a pattern began to emerge - UFC would throw him against a top fighter like Jon Fitch or Dong Hyun Kim, who could survive into the second round with Silva, he'd get outclassed, and then in his next fight, UFC would give him another guy to destroy, push him back up the card where he'd get outclassed, and then keep repeating the cycle. And, well, after three years of this, people just kind of came to see Silva for what he is, an exciting, flawed fighter who's more action favorite than future champion - it was probably after a flat loss to Neil Magny that the public gave up for good on Silva, and if not, it was definitely a loss last year to Nordine Taleb, by knockout no less, that caused UFC to pretty much lose faith in Silva ever really becoming a thing. On the plus side, they seem to have embraced his destiny as an action fighter, as September saw him win a fun bout over Luan Chagas, and now they've teed up another fun fight on paper against Hawaii's Yancy Medeiros. Medeiros has one of my favorite career arcs - a middleweight in Strikeforce, Medeiros was out for three years due to injury, and thanks to training with the Diaz brothers, when he finally made his return (in UFC, which had absorbed Strikeforce by that point), he had lost thirty pounds and was suddenly a lightweight. Unfortunately, training with the Diaz brothers may also explain why his first UFC win was overturned due to a failed pot test. Anyway, Medeiros has established himself as a fun action fighter - he's lost to ranked guys like Dustin Poirier and Francisco Trinaldo, but in all of his other fights he's shown knockout power and a solid submission game; like teammate Max Holloway, Medeiros can often stun an opponent and then, with his long limbs, clamp on some sort of funky choke for the tap. Which is, in fact, what Medeiros actually did in his debut at welterweight in September, stunning Sean Spencer with a head kick before diving in for the rear naked choke. As far as the fight, Silva's obviously been trying to address his first round or bust tendencies, moving to a few different camps, and the results have been a mixed bag - yes, Silva's been able to pace himself, and he got a third-round victory against Chagas, but that's come at the cost of his aggression, and he's still fairly hittable, so it's hard to say he's really all that more effective. I'll take Medeiros here - Chagas was able to tag Silva a bunch in their fight, and if nothing else, Medeiros is a lanky striker who can cause some damage if opponents give him the opportunity. This should be fun while it lasts, but I see this ending a bit like the Medeiros/Spencer fight, where Medeiros can stun Silva, and then jump on some sort of submission to finish him - I'll say it comes in the second round. Raphael Assuncao (24-5 overall, 8-2 UFC, 3-2 WEC) vs. Marlon Moraes (18-4-1 overall): UFC's pretty much raided all of World Series of Fighting's champions at this point - two-division champ Dave Branch made his return at UFC 211, Justin Gaethje is headlining the TUF finale in July, and finally, bantamweight champ Marlon Moraes is coming over to ply his trade and see if he can become a contender. I remember watching the first WSOF card, and Moraes was sort of an afterthought when he was put against former WEC champ and bantamweight great Miguel Torres, as the Brazilian was just sort of an unassuming young fighter with a fairly nondescript record. But Moraes won a narrow decision, and from there, things rapidly clicked into place, as Moraes first became an exciting top prospect and then established himself as one of the best bantamweights outside of the UFC, becoming WSOF's sole bantamweight champion. Moraes never really had incentive to leave for most of his run - he was a client of the controversial manager/former WSOF matchmaker Ali Abdelaziz, who pretty much used WSOF to make himself and his clients money, but with WSOF running out of cash and changing forms, Moraes finally saw it was time to make a run in the UFC. And at 29, Moraes is right in the prime of his career, so UFC is making a smart move by immediately throwing him in there against a top contender like Raphael Assuncao. Assuncao's had a weird run - he's effective, but not particularly exciting, as his style is mostly built around countering his opponents, which makes everything into a slow chess match. And as soon as he actually managed enough wins to earn a bantamweight title shot, his career basically lost all momentum. Assuncao was the clear top contender in May of 2014, but an ankle injury kept him from taking a fight against then-champ Renan Barao - so instead, T.J. Dillashaw, who Assuncao had narrowly beaten the previous October, wound up getting the shot and winning the title, and was rematching Barao while Assuncao was stuck fighting Bryan Caraway. And from there, Assuncao's ankle betrayed him - between the long winning streak and the win over then-champ Dillashaw, Assuncao loomed over the division for a good year and a half, but by the time he could actually get healthy, he had missed almost two years and Dillashaw had already lost the belt. So Assuncao finally came back, lost a rematch to Dillashaw at UFC 200, but rebounded with a narrow win over Aljamain Sterling in January, leaving him sort of in limbo - at this point bantamweight is deep enough that UFC probably won't let the colorless Assuncao get anywhere near a title shot, but he's still good enough to knock off a lot of fighters in the division. I'm favoring Moraes to take this, but I worry it won't be an overly impressive debut past the result, since I could see Assuncao making the fight play out with a lot of...Assuncao-ness. As mentioned, Assuncao just sort of prefers to sit back and counter his opponent's strikes, and he's excellent at it, which prevents his opponents from getting too aggressive and doesn't really let a fight get particularly exciting. I do think Moraes is the better striker and should be able to pick Assuncao apart, particularly with his leg kicks, but I just don't see Moraes popping off the kind of violence we could see in WSOF, or making a huge statement in a win. But a win over Assuncao is a statement in itself, so even if it's just a mediocre decision, Moraes would still be among the divisional elite. Antonio Carlos Junior (7-2 [1] overall, 4-2 [1] UFC) vs. Eric Spicely (10-1 overall, 2-1 UFC): I like the dynamic here, as UFC is pitting a frustrating talent against quite possibly the company's biggest overachiever. Eric Spicely, quite literally, shouldn't even be here. An alum of TUF 23, it seemed iffy if Spicely would even get a contract, given his unassuming build and the kind of boring, grinding style that he used in the house and Dana White seemed to hate, but after getting a post-TUF fight and, somewhat embarrassingly for a submission specialist, getting tapped out by Sam Alvey, that almost definitely seemed to be it for Spicely's UFC career. And, well, it was supposed to be, except a funny thing happened. The WME-IMG purchase of Zuffa happened shortly thereafter, and amidst all the transactions, UFC essentially forgot to cut Spicely. So they offered him one of two options - get cut, or get thrown in essentially as a sacrificial lamb against ranked middleweight Thiago Santos on a card in Brazil. Spicely took the fight, and, in one of the biggest upsets of 2016, managed to tap Santos out, and after doing the same to Italian prospect Alessio Di Chirico, Spicely attempts to make it an unlikely three in a row against Antonio Carlos Junior. Carlos Junior, who might be better known by his nickname "Cara de Sapato" - or "Shoe Face" thanks to his giant jaw, is a tantalizing prospect, but a frustrating one. A former world BJJ champion, Carlos won TUF: Brazil 3 at heavyweight and showed some knockout power in the process, so as a giant guy with both elite submission skills and that finishing ability, the sky looked like the limit. But after cutting down to 205 for his first post-TUF fight, Carlos got absolutely schooled by the American wrestling of Patrick Cummins, and a further cut down to 185 has been a mixed bag. Carlos, as you'd imagine for a former heavyweight, is gigantic for middleweight, but he seems to be a fairly clear example of a guy who looked amazing when things are working and he's rolling downhill, but tends to look awful as soon as the tables turn. Hell, his lone loss at middleweight, against Dan Kelly, is a perfect microcosm of that - Carlos was a massive favorite and was taking Kelly to school with his grappling for a good two rounds or so, but once Carlos tired and Kelly just relentlessly kept trying offense, Carlos crumbled and eventually got shockingly finished. Carlos does seem to focus on what brought him to the dance with that grappling game, but even his last fight, a fairly one-sided win over Marvin Vettori, saw some spots where Vettori was able to get advantage and things started falling apart instantly. Still, I think the style matchup favors Carlos here, since Spicely is looking to do the same thing that Carlos is and take things into the clinch. And while there's certainly a chance that heart trumps talent - it did in the Kelly fight - and Spicely just survives long enough for Carlos to wear down and crumble, I think Spicely just basically winds up going right into Carlos's wheelhouse and gets rag-dolled for his troubles. So I'll say Carlos by first-round submission, even if I probably should be more confident in someone who has the talent to make a win here look easy. Johnny Eduardo (28-10 overall, 3-2 UFC, 1-0 Bellator) vs. Matthew Lopez (9-1 overall, 1-1 UFC): Ah, it's a good old fashioned striker-versus-grappler battle, and a pretty fun one at that. Johnny Eduardo is 38 years old, and somehow, that still seems a bit young, given that Eduardo was fighting on Vale Tudo shows in Brazil all the way back in 1996. So, yes, Eduardo's been doing this for over two decades, though not very frequently anymore - since signing with UFC in 2011, he's only had five fights under the promotional banner. But he's been effective - contenders like Raphael Assuncao and Aljamain Sterling have handled him fairly easily, but as you'd imagine from the striking coach at Nova Uniao, he's a pretty damn good kickboxer, and has knockout wins in two of his last three fights, including a huge upset win over Eddie Wineland in 2014. Eduardo gives it another go here against California's Matthew Lopez, who's an interesting prospect. Lopez was a wrestling coach at Mark Munoz's old Reign MMA gym, and grappling is obviously his background, as Lopez has impressed in two tough, but fun, submission-based fights. It's been weird matchmaking - Lopez is still fairly raw, but UFC went ahead and threw him against two of the best grapplers in the bantamweight division; Lopez acquitted himself well in a great back-and-forth loss against Rani Yahya, but managed to pull out a win against divisional darkhorse Mitch Gagnon. With this fight, UFC is still keeping Lopez on the fast track, but going a completely different route against a striker like Eduardo. It's a fascinating matchup, but I'll favor Eduardo here - Lopez is still kind of a work in progress on the feet, and got clipped by Gagnon in their fight, so Eduardo should be able to tag him. If Lopez gets this to the ground, it's his fight - Aljamain Sterling was the last guy to get Eduardo on his back, and Eduardo looked fairly helpless, for all his experience - but, well, I don't think he'll get it there before getting nailed. So I'll say Eduardo by second-round knockout, even if I'm not particularly confident. Iuri Alcantara (35-7 [1] overall, 9-4 [1] UFC, 1-0 WEC) vs. Brian Kelleher (16-7 overall, 0-2 Bellator): Well, kind of a weird deal here - it's a strange matchup to begin with, and, well, I can't find much relevant footage on the debuting Brian Kelleher. Iuri Alcantara has pretty much proven himself the gatekeeper extraordinaire for the division - Alcantara's big, durable, a jack-of-all-trades master-of-none type, so if you beat him, you're probably worthy of being a ranked fighter. So UFC's just fed him rising fighter after rising fighter - Frankie Saenz and Jimmie Rivera were able to win, but Russell Doane, Leandro Issa, and Luke Sanders all lost. That Sanders fight was a notable one - Sanders was pretty much winning the entire fight before Alcantara pulled off a miracle kneebar, of all things - and one would've hoped that would get Alcantara a bigger fight or something. But no, instead he gets a debuting fighter in Kelleher, which is odd - it's not like Kelleher really projects as a top prospect who can make a run up the division quickly, like, say, a Tom Duquesnoy. The Long Islander's on a bit of a run, though, racking up a bunch of wins in the Northeast, including a win over the since-signed Andre Soukhamthath in 2015. Again, there's not much to go on, since anything out there on Kelleher is from before he really became a prospect, but this seems like Kelleher being thrown in over his head, so I'll say Alcantara wins a decision. Jamie Moyle (4-1 overall, 1-0 UFC, 3-1 Invicta) vs. Viviane Pereira (12-0 overall, 1-0 UFC): A really fun fight between strawweight prospects here, and a bit of cheeky matchmaking, as since both women are just 5'1", it pits two of the shortest fighters in the division against someone their own size. Brazil's Viviane Pereira came into UFC with a decent regional record, but her UFC debut was a weird deal - she faced former bantamweight Valerie Letourneau, and between Pereira's size disadvantage and Letourneau being drained from a bad weight cut, it was just sort of a boring fight as each fighter struggled to do anything. But despite the size difference, Pereira got enough takedowns to narrowly win the decision. For her sophomore effort, she'll take on Las Vegas's Jamie Moyle, a TUF 23 alum who's a solid prospect. Moyle was on the Vegas amateur scene for a while before getting a shot in Invicta, and she's proven herself to be a solid grappler, even if like with Pereira, the size disadvantage can give her a bit of trouble at times. This is pretty much a pick 'em, since Pereira is still a bit of an unknown - pre-UFC footage of any worth on her in scarce, and not enough really happened in that Letourneau fight to make a ton of conclusions. But if nothing else, being able to move Letourneau shows that she has some natural strength, and I've seen Moyle struggle against opponents who have the strength advantage on her. So I'll take Pereira to win a decision, though, frankly, I'm probably a bit more confident at the moment in what Moyle brings to the table. Luan Chagas (14-2-1 overall, 0-1-1 UFC) vs. Jim Wallhead (29-10 overall, 0-1 UFC, 1-2 Bellator): A decent prospect-versus-veteran fight here. Curitiba's Luan Chagas has had a fun two-fight run in UFC thus far - he got to make a late-notice debut in his hometown at UFC 198, fighting Sergio Moraes to a draw, and then had a "Fight of the Night" against Erick Silva in September that turned into a fun brawl, even if it was Chagas's first career loss. Chagas has a fairly simple gameplan of throwing a ton of power behind absolutely everything, which has its obvious advantages and drawbacks - dude hits really hard, but gasses by the end of the fight - but Chagas is still just 23, so there's a ton of potential for him to turn into something more than an action fighter. He takes on England's "Judo" Jim Wallhead, who looks for a shot at redemption. Wallhead's one of those regional vets who has just plugged away on random shows for years, so it was nice to see him get the UFC call in September, but he kind of spit the bit in his UFC debut, looking tentative and giving away a winnable fight against Jessin Ayari. I'll favor Chagas here - Wallhead's quite tough, so I'd be surprised if Chagas knocked him out, and I assume Chagas will drop the latter stages of the fight, but I see this as a fight where Chagas does a whole bunch of damage to start, tires late, and wins a close, but clear decision. Deiveson Alcantara (11-0 overall) vs. Marco Beltran (8-4 overall, 3-1 UFC): Mexico's Marco Beltran started his UFC career with about the softest three-fight win streak you'll see - after beating TUF: Latin America season one castmate Marlon Vera, he beat TUF: China winner Guangyou Ning and TUF: Brazil 4 winner Reginaldo Vieira, all fairly uninspiring talents. So Beltran's fight with Joe Soto this past November was going to answer a lot of questions about how good Beltran is, and, well, he got tapped by a leglock in under two minutes. So Beltran, a bit surprisingly, has decided to cut down to flyweight, and he'll face debuting Brazilian Deiveson Alcantara. At least, I think that's the name Alcantara is going to go by - he has two last names and two nicknames, so it's unclear exactly which one UFC is going to officially go with. Anyway, Alcantara's best known for his viral "pimp slap KO" of Denis Araujo last September, where he seriously just backhanded the dude into unconsciousness, but Alcantara looks to be much better as a power grappler - in fact, he was probably losing that fight with Araujo after getting touched up on the feet until, well, pimp slap knockout. Beltran's a weird fighter - his takedown defense is fairly horrible, but he does seem to do his best work from his back, where he's fairly crafty and slippery. So while Alcantara should have no problem taking Beltran down, there's the off chance that Beltran's length for his new division makes things a bit tricky for the Brazilian to try and implement his game. Still, Alcantara has shown enough that I'll brush away those concerns, so I say the newcomer takes it by first-round submission.

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