#and i mean. if trump had lost in 2016 this wouldnt matter. | Explore Tumblr Posts and Blogs

patriotsnet · 3 years

Text

How Many Republicans Voted For Obamacare In 2008

New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/how-many-republicans-voted-for-obamacare-in-2008/

How Many Republicans Voted For Obamacare In 2008

List Of Candidates Who Ran In Us Congress Elections 2018

Senate Republicans fail to get necessary votes to repeal and replace Obamacare

The Republican Party held majorities in both chambers of the U.S. Congress entering the 2018 election. In the U.S. Senate, there were 23 Democratic seats, eight Republican seats, and two seats held by independents up for election in 2018. The Democratic Party needed to pick up two seats in the Senate in order to regain the majority they lost in 2014. All 435 seats in the U.S. House were up for election. In order to win the chamber, the Democratic Party needed to pick up 24 seats in 2018.

for the list of all candidates who ran in the 2018 U.S. Congress elections. For a listing of all candidates who ran in 2016, .

U.S. House

10Footnotes

How much are your senators and representatives worth?After heated budget debates, threats of government shutdowns and multiple votes to raise the debt ceiling, Congress has been dealing with fiscal issues on a regular basis. It is no wonder, then, that when the average citizen has the means to take a peak at each members ability to handle his or her personal finance, intrigue abounds.

The latest data calculated by OpenSecrets.org reports on disclosed information from 2012. The latest batch of numbers shows that the 113th Congress had a median net worth of $1,008,767. This is the first time in history that the majority of members are millionaires.

For information on which members saw the highest change during their tenure, please see Ballotpedias page on the Changes in Net Worth of U.S. Senators and Representatives .

Number Of Registered Voters By State 2021

Voter registration is the requirement that a person eligible to vote registers on an electoral roll before that person is entitled or permitted to vote. Voter registration may be automatic or may require each eligible person to submit an application. Registration varies between jurisdictions.

Almost 92 million eligible Americans did not vote in the 2016 presidential election. Voter registration and participation are crucial for the nations democracy to function properly and for the US government to provide fair representation.

Low voter registration numbers and low voter turnout can be the result of several factors. To increase voter registration and participation, barriers to registering to vote, and barriers to voting must be eliminated, such as additional restrictions on identification forms and reforms to ensure all eligible ballots will be securely counted. Additionally, those alienated from the democratic process or discouraged from voting must feel that their voice is heard by their leaders and encouraged to participate in elections.

Some pro-voter policies that have shown to increase voter registration and participation are:

Automatic voter registration.

Mcconnell Reacts To ‘skinny Bill’s’ Failure

We told our constituents we would vote that way and when the moment came, the moment came, most of us did,” he said.

“This is clearly a disappointment,” McConnell added. “It’s time to move on.”

The return of McCain to Washington after a brain cancer diagnosis added drama to the already tense proceedings. It was his vote the 50th that allowed Republicans begin debating the measure.

McCain gave a heartfelt speech upon his return to the Senate on Tuesday, decrying the rise of partisanship. And it was McCain who put an end to the partisan repeal effort.

McCain spoke to Trump last night on the phone and the president urged him to vote to for the skinny repeal bill assuring him it wouldnt end up passing into law, according to one source with direct knowledge of the call.

Vice President Mike Pence, who arrived in the chamber in a bid to rescue the bill and in preparation to cast the deciding vote, stood alongside McCain’s desk and then joined the senator in the cloakroom. By the time they re-emerged, separately, the vote had begun.

McCain went back to his desk and sat after casting his “no” vote. He eventually made his way to the Democrats’ side of the chamber and was greeted with hugs and cheers.

“I believe each of us stood up for the reasons that we felt were right”

Several Republicans said they did not know where McCain would fall, and there were audible gasps in the chamber when he turned down his thumb to indicate his decision.

Read Also: When Did Republicans And Democrats Switch Platforms

About The House Of Representatives

The United States is also divided into 435 congressional districts with a population of about 750,000 each. Each district elects a representative to the House of Representatives for a two-year term.

As in the Senate, the day-to-day activities of the House are controlled by the majority party. Here is a count of representatives by party:

What Is Your Analysis Of This Vote

What trends do you see in this vote?

Members of Congress side together for many reasons beside being in the same political party, especially so for less prominent legislation or legislation specific to a certain region. What might have determined how the roll call came out in this case? Does it look like Members of Congress voted based on party, geography, or some other reason?

How did your senators vote?

There are two votes here that should be more important to you than all the others. These are the votes cast by your senators, which are meant to represent you and your community. Do you agree with how your senators voted? Why do you think they voted the way they did?

If you dont already know who your Members of Congress are you can find them by entering your address here.

How much of the United States population is represented by the yeas?

GovTrack displays the percentage of the United States population represented by the yeas on some Senate votes just under the vote totals. We do this to highlight how the people of the United States are represented in the Senate. Since each state has two senators, but state populations vary significantly, the individuals living in each state have different Senate representation. For example, Californias population of near 40 million is given the same number of senators as Wyomings population of about 600,000.

Do the senators who voted yea represent a majority of the people of the United States? Does it matter?

Also Check: Republican Tie Color

List Of Current Members Of The Us Congress

Features of Congress Lifetime voting recordsNet worth of United States Senators and RepresentativesStaff salaries of United States Senators and RepresentativesNational Journal vote ratings

The United States Congress is the bicameral legislature of the United States of Americas federal government. It consists of two houses, the Senate and the House of Representatives, with members chosen through direct election.

Congress has 535 voting members. The Senate has 100 voting officials, and the House has 435 voting officials, along with five delegates and one resident commissioner.

to find your representatives with Ballotpedias Who represents me? tool.

Also Check: Republican Wear Red Or Blue

Majority Of The Public Prefer Building On The Aca Or Keeping The Law As Is

Building on the ACA has been a focal point for;Joe;Bidens presidential bid, as he;has proposed creating;a government-run public option;health care plan;that will compete with private insurers and be available for all Americans.;The;December;KFF Health Tracking Poll;finds nearly;half of adults want the;incoming presidential administration and Congress to build on what the ACA does . A smaller share;wants;to keep the law as it is and about three in ten want to either scale back what the law does or repeal it entirely . Partisans differ on these approaches, with three in four Democrats wanting the incoming administration and Congress to build on what the law does and six in ten Republicans wanting the law to be scaled back or repealed entirely .;;

Figure 5: Most Want To Build On The ACA Or Keep It As Is, Though Partisans Differ

Endnotes

This estimate is a household measure of all groups and does not classify pre-existing conditions by whether they are or not a deniable condition.

Also Check: Did Trump Say Republicans Are Stupid

Most Say It Is Important That Pre

If the Supreme Court overturns the ACA, a host of provisions could be eliminated, including the laws protections for people with pre-existing medical conditions. These provisions prohibit insurance companies from denying coverage based on a persons medical history and prohibit insurance companies from charging those with pre-existing conditions more for coverage . The KFF Health Tracking Poll found that a majority of the public says it is very important for many of the ACA provisions to be kept in place, including the guaranteed issue provision and community rating . While partisans divide over the importance of keeping many provisions of the ACA in place, majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and independence say it is very important to continue each of these protections for people with pre-existing conditions.

Figure 3: Most Say It Is Important That ACA Provisions Remain In Place

Efforts To Invalidate Premium Subsidies

How the Obamacare repeal failed, in two minutes

In King v. Burwell , plaintiffs argued that premium subsidies could not legally be distributed in states that didnt establish their own health insurance exchanges. The Supreme Court ruled in the governments favor in 2015, upholding the legality of premium subsidies in every state.

Its notable, however, that Indiana, Oklahoma, Alabama, Georgia, Nebraska, South Carolina, and West Virginia all joined amicus briefs in support of the plaintiffs in King v. Burwell. Those states all of which use the federally run exchange supported the idea that premium subsidies should not be available in states that use the federally run exchange.

If the challengers had won, the individual mandate penalty would no longer have applied to most exchange enrollees in states that use the federally facilitated exchange, as coverage would not be considered affordable without the premium subsidies . And the employer mandate penalty would also not have applied, since its triggered when employees receive subsidies in the exchange.

But there are 1.09 million people in those seven states who were receiving premium subsidies as of 2019. Not only would their subsidies no longer have been available had the King v. Burwell plaintiffs prevailed, but without premium subsidies, the individual market would likely have collapsed altogether in states that didnt run their own exchanges. That concern did not, however, stop those states from siding with the plaintiffs.

Recommended Reading: Who Ran Against Trump For Republican

Republicans Predicted That We Would Find Iraqs Weapons Of Mass Destruction Even Though Un Weapons Inspectors Said That Those Weapons Didnt Exist

The Bush administration continued to insist that WMDs would be found, even when the CIA said some of the evidence was questionable. As we all know, the WMDs predicted by the Bush administration did not exist, and Saddam Hussein had not resumed his nuclear weapons program as they claimed. Ultimately, both President Bush and Vice President Cheney had to admit that there were no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.

Donât Miss: Who Is Behind Republicans For The Rule Of Law

Cori Bush Becomes Missouris First Black Congresswoman Cbs News Projects

Cori Bush, a progressive Democrat and activist, has become Missouris first Black congresswoman, according to CBS News projections. With 88% of votes reported, Bush is leading Republican Anthony Rogers 78.9% to 19% to represent the states first congressional district, which includes St. Louis and Ferguson.

Bush, 44, claimed victory on Tuesday, promising to bring change to the district. As the first Black woman and also the first nurse and single mother to have the honor to represent Missouri in the United States Congress, let me say this: To the Black women, the Black girls, the nurses, the essential workers, the single mothers, this is our moment, she told supporters in St. Louis.

Also Check: How Many Democrats And Republicans Are In The House

Were Also On Social Media

GovTrack.us is an independent website tracking the status of legislation in the United States Congress and helping you participate in government. Now were on Instagram too!

Follow on Instagram for new 60-second summary videos of legislation in Congress.

Follow on Twitter for posts about legislative activity and other information were tracking, and some commentary.

And please consider supporting our work by becoming a monthly backer on Patreon or leaving a tip.

Trump And Congressional Republicans Have Spent Years Working To Undermine The Aca

Health insurance & health reform authority

The Trump administration and Republicans in Congress have long said that the ACA is collapsing under its own weight. But the individual insurance markets in most states had begun to stabilize by 2017, and began to show profits by 2018.

After steep rate increases in 2017 and 2018 , rate increases for 2019 averaged less than 3 percent nationwide, and average rates for 2020 were essentially unchanged from 2019. And while there were numerous insurer exits from the exchanges at the end of 2016 and at the end of 2017, that was not the case at the end of 2018; there was an overall trend towards insurers joining the exchanges for 2019, and that happened in many states for 2020 as well.

While the individual market might have stabilized to some degree, Republican talking points about the problems in the individual market are not entirely without merit. The markets are note out of the woods insurers still have some concerns about the ACA-compliant market, and premiums can be entirely unaffordable for people who dont receive premium subsidies.

Once the premium increases of 2017 and 2018 gave way to much smaller increases and even decreases in 2019 and 2020, it was no surprise that the Trump administration took;, attributing the lower rates and smaller rate increases to their own administrative prowess. But the recent premium stabilizations have come about despite the GOPs efforts to drag down the ACA.

Also Check: Who Is Right Republicans Or Democrats

Record High Percentage Of Voters Registered In California

Voter interest continues to grow in California as officials announced Thursday over 83% of the electorate has registered to vote, the highest entering a general election since 1952.

SACRAMENTO, Calif. Voter interest continues to grow in California as officials announced Thursday over 83% of the electorate has registered to vote, the highest entering a general election since 1952.

Following a Super Tuesday in which a record 9.6 million Californians voted, Secretary of State Alex Padilla says the registration spike has continued even with the extended coronavirus shutdown.;;

Despite the Covid-19 pandemic, California is on track to reach another registration milestone, Padilla said in a statement. California will reach 21 million registered voters before the November General Election-extending our current state record for voter registration.;

After lawmakers bumped the primary up from June to March to encourage participation, California counted a record number of votes and notched its second highest turnout for a primary. Padilla and other officials said the move was a clear success as it forced presidential candidates to campaign in the nations largest state.

In the first registration report since the primary, Padilla says 2.8 million more people have signed up to vote compared to a similar point in the 2016 election cycle. A total of 20.9 million of the states 25 million eligible are slated to participate Nov. 3.

Additional Reads

How Did Obamacare Pass In Congress

The Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare, could pass into law because the Democratic Party briefly held the White House, a majority in the House of Representatives and a supermajority in the Senate in 2010.

Origins of Obamacare Officially known as the Affordable Care Act, Obamacare was President Barack Obama’s overhaul of the health insurance system. The concept of affordable care goes back to the 1980s, when conservative economists and senators championed a healthcare reform on the basis of individual responsibility.

In 1993, president Bill Clinton proposed a healthcare reform bill, and in 2006 the state of Massachusetts enacted a state-level insurance expansion bill. By 2008, most Democrats backed the Massachusetts model as the basis of state reform, and the topic was one of the most important during the 2008 Democratic primaries. During the general elections, Obama committed to fixing healthcare during his presidency.

Passing Obamacare Into Law The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act needed to pass through both chambers of Congress to become a law. The seeds for this passing were sown during the 2008 elections. That evening, the Democratic party came away with a 257 to 199 seat advantage in the House, and Obama was elected president.

Also Check: Number Of Senate Republicans

Requirements For Insurance Companies

Prohibit bans on pre-existing health conditions in children, lifetime and annual limits on expenses, and limits coverage exclusions of pre-existing health conditions in adults.

Requires family policies to include coverage of children up to age 26.

Allows states to form compacts in order to allow the interstate sale of insurance.

Requires direct access to obstetrical and gynecological care, which might include abortion.

Creates health insurance exchanges or marketplaces that will be state-based and state-administered, but states can opt out of this if certain conditions are met; insurance can be sold within the exchange only if government-approved. If a state fails to set up its own exchange, residents of the state can purchase insurance on a federally-administered exchange. Insurance can be sold outside of the exchange, but only policies purchased on the exchange will be eligible for a premium tax credit.

Prohibits health plans from discriminating against providers, but plans are not required to contract with any provider.

Requires health plans to develop politically correct language services, community outreach and cultural competency trainings.

Requires “silver” insurance plans sold on the exchange to implement a premium tax credit program for individuals making less than $45,960 . The insurance company receives the credit from the federal government and is responsible for billing the difference to each insured person.

0 notes

patriotsnet · 3 years

Text

What Happens If Republicans Win Midterms

New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/what-happens-if-republicans-win-midterms/

What Happens If Republicans Win Midterms

Gop Lawmakers Threaten To Punish Democrats If They Win Back Control Of Congress

‘When we take the majority back in 2022, I’ll make sure consequences are doled out,’ said Rep. Madison Cawthorn.

Republicans are outraged that Democrats are governing by majority rule in the House. In retaliation, they are vowing to do the same things they now decry as unprecedented and wrong.

“Never in the history of our country has a Speaker acted like such an authoritarian,” House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy on Thursday.

He was upset that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi had his request to appoint Republican Reps. Jim Banks and Jim Jordan to the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the U.S. Capitol. Both men voted to overturn the 2020 election results and pushed the lie that President Joe Biden only won because the election was stolen.

“Never in the history of Congress and the select committee I checked with the historian has this ever taken place, where the one party decides who’s all on the committee,” McCarthy told Fox News in a video he with his tweet. McCarthy in fact to give Republican then-Speaker John Boehner the exact same unilateral appointment power in 2014 for the Select Committee on the Events Surrounding the 2012 Terrorist Attack in Benghazi.

But while House Republicans claim they are being mistreated because the majority won’t let them have their way, they are also promising to retaliate by turning the same actions they criticize now against Democrats in 2023.

TAGS

‘the Beast Is Growing’: Republicans Follow A Winning At All Costs Strategy Into The Midterms

Much remains uncertain about the midterm elections more than a year away including the congressional districts themselves, thanks to the delayed redistricting process. The Senate, meanwhile, looks like more of a toss-up.

House Democrats think voters will reward them for advancing President Joe Biden’s generally popular , which involves showering infrastructure money on virtually every district in the country and sending checks directly to millions of parents. And they think voters will punish Republicans for their rhetoric about the Covid-19 pandemic and the 2020 election.

“Democrats are delivering results, bringing back the economy, getting people back to work, passing the largest middle-class tax cut in history, while Republicans are engaged in frankly violent conspiracy theory rhetoric around lies in service of Donald Trump,” said Tim Persico, executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

But the challenges Democrats face are real and numerous.

They knew they would face a tough 2022 immediately after 2020, when massive, unexpected GOP gains whittled the Democratic majority to just a handful of seats.

“House Republicans are in a great position to retake the majority,” said Rep. Tom Emmer, R-Minn., who chairs the National Republican Congressional Committee, “but we are taking nothing for granted.”

His rural district had been trending Republican for years. Kind won re-election last year by just about 10,000 votes.

What If The Republicans Win Everything Again

Total victory for the G.O.P. would mean Trump unleashed.

Opinion Columnist

The end of Robert Muellers investigation. The loss of health insurance for several million people. New laws that make it harder to vote. More tax cuts for the rich. More damage to the environment. A Republican Party molded even more in the image of President Trump.

These are among the plausible consequences if the Republicans sweep the midterm elections and keep control of both the House and Senate. And dont fool yourself. That outcome, although not the most likely one, remains possible. The last couple of weeks of polling have shown how it could happen.

Voters who lean Republican including whites across the South could set aside their disappointment with Trump and vote for Republican congressional candidates. Voters who lean left including Latinos and younger adults could turn out in low numbers, as they usually do in midterm elections. The Republicans continuing efforts to suppress turnout could also swing a few close elections.

No matter what, Democrats will probably win the popular vote in the House elections, for the first time since 2012. Trump, after all, remains unpopular. But the combination of gerrymandering and the concentration of Democratic voters in major cities means that a popular-vote win wont automatically translate into a House majority.

I Do Not Buy That A Social Media Ban Hurts Trumps 2024 Aspirations: Nate Silver

All Videos

sarah: Yeah, Democrats might not have their worst Senate map in 2022, but it will by no means be easy, and how they fare will have a lot to do with the national environment. And as we touched on earlier, Bidens overall approval rating will also make a big difference in Democrats midterm chances.

nrakich: Yeah, if the national environment is even a bit Republican-leaning, that could be enough to allow solid Republican recruits to flip even Nevada and New Hampshire. And then it wouldnt even matter if Democrats win Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

One thing is for sure, though whichever party wins the Senate will have only a narrow majority, so I think were stuck in this era of moderates like Sens. Joe Manchin and Lisa Murkowski controlling every bills fate for at least a while longer.

sarah: Lets talk about big picture strategy, then, and where that leaves us moving forward. Its still early and far too easy to prescribe election narratives that arent grounded in anything, but one gambit the Republican Party seems to be making at this point is that attacking the Democratic Party for being too progressive or woke will help them win.

What do we make of that playbook headed into 2022? Likewise, as the party in charge, what are Democrats planning for?

With that being said, the GOPs strategies could still gin up turnout among its base, in particular, but its hard to separate that from general dissatisfaction with Biden.

The 2024 Presidential Election Will Be Close Even If Trump Is The Gop Nominee

One very important thing we should have all taken away from both the 2016 and 2020 presidential contests is that the two major parties are in virtual equipose . The ideological sorting-out of the two parties since the 1960s has in turn led to extreme partisan polarization, a decline in ticket-splitting and and in number of genuine swing voters. Among other things, this has led to an atmosphere where Republicans have paid little or no price for the extremism theyve disproportionately exhibited, or for the bad conduct of their leaders, most notably the 45th president.

Indeed, the polarized climate encourages outlandish and immoral base mobilization efforts of the sort Trump deployed so regularly. Some Republicans partisans shook their heads sadly and voted the straight GOP ticket anyway, And to the extent there were swing voters they tended strongly to believe that both parties were equally guilty of excessive partisanship, and/or that all politicians are worthless scum, so why not vote for the worthless scum under whom the economy hummed?

The bottom line is that anyone who assumes Republicans are in irreversible decline in presidential elections really hasnt been paying attention.

Republicans Set To Rebound Big In 2022 Midterms Unless

We are just 600 short days away from the 2022 midterm elections, which means it is the perfect time to handicap the Republicans chances to win back the House, Senate and prepare a serious challenge to President Biden

Patrick Joseph ToomeyBlack women look to build upon gains in coming electionsWatch live: GOP senators present new infrastructure proposalSasse rebuked by Nebraska Republican Party over impeachment vote already have Democrats scrambling to flip those seats in much easier electoral terrain.

As I noted in The Hill last month, Republicans are on the hook to defend 20 of their seats in 2022, while Team Blue has just 14 seats to hold, all in states won by Joe Biden in 2020. Since March is a perfect month for sports analogies, a good defense provides for a strong offense when the status quo is Democrats retaining control of the upper chamber. While there is clearly a power in incumbency, FiveThirtyEight suggests that senate vacancies are actually more of a mixed bag. In election cycles since 1974, the party with the most Senate retirements has actually gained seats just as often as it has lost them. For every year like 2008, when more Republicans than Democrats retired and Republicans lost seats accordingly, theres a year like 2012, when a whopping seven Democrats retired yet the party picked up two Senate seats.

How these various Rs play out in the next few months will determine if the Rs are successful in 2022.

Rising Violent Crime Is Likely To Present A Political Challenge For Democrats In 2022

But there are roadblocks to fully enacting Democrats’ agenda. Their thin majorities in both chambers of Congress mean nearly all Democrats have to get on board with every agenda item in order to push through major legislative priorities. And without adjusting or eliminating the legislative filibuster in the Senate, Democrats need 10 Republicans to join them for various legislation a near-impossible task.

Renewable Energy And Health Care Among The Sectors That Could Get Shakeup Due To Midterms

The 2022 midterm elections are already affecting Washington, and the results could shake up sectors such as renewable energy, health care and finance.

As Democrats in Washington work to deliver on infrastructure spending and other priorities, theyre trying to make progress in large part because of a key event thats still more than a year away.

That event is the midterm elections on Nov. 8, 2022, when Republicans will aim to take back control of the House and Senate and become a more powerful check on the priorities of President Joe Biden and his fellow Democrats.

What leaders are thinking about, particularly since we have unified party control, is that these midterm elections are inevitably a referendum on the governing party, said Sarah Binder, a senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution and a professor of political science at George Washington University in Washington, D.C.

In that sense, shrinking time coupled with What is it that Democrats want to run on? it adds pressure on Democrats to get their priorities through the door.

Time is growing short, Binder said, because party leaders often avoid making their members vote on tough issues in the same calendar year as an election, since that can hurt incumbents in tight races. Party leaders often think primarily about what they can get done in the first year of a Congress, as opposed to counting on the second year, she said.

Sectors that could win or lose

Year

Races worth watching

Can Democrats Avoid A Wipeout In 2022

Bidens plan: Go big or go home.

The good news for Democrats who watched Joe Biden unveil a historically ambitious agenda last night is that newly elected presidents have almost always passed some version of their core economic planparticularly when their party controls both congressional chambers, as Bidens does now.

The bad news: Voters have almost always punished the presidents party in the next midterm election anyway. The last two times Democrats had unified controlwith Bill Clinton in 199394 and Barack Obama in 200910they endured especially resounding repudiations in the midterms, which cost Clinton his majority in both chambers and Obama the loss of the House.

Theres a very different strategy this time, David Price, a Democratic representative from North Carolina and a former political scientist, told me. Theres an openness now to the sense that a bolder plan, ironically, might have greater appeal for independents and others we need to attract than trying to trim and split the difference with Republicans.

Read: The GOP cheat code to winning back the House

There is this recognition of this moment and how fleeting it is, and an evaluation that, absent the trifecta of control, it is very hard to move big policy, said a senior official at one of the partys leading outside advocacy groups, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal strategizing. So you have to take your shot. I think thats part of what undergirds Go big.

What If Republicans Win The Midterms

March 3, 2018

WASHINGTON A sizable portion of the American population has been convulsing with outrage at President Trump for more than a year. Millions of people who previously took only mild interest in politics have participated in protests, fumed as they stayed riveted to news out of Washington and filled social media accounts once devoted to family updates and funny videos with furious political commentary.

Yet public life on the whole has remained surprisingly calm. A significant factor in keeping the peace has surely been anticipatory catharsis: The widespread expectations of a big Democratic wave in the coming midterm elections are containing and channeling that indignation, helping to maintain order.

What will happen if no such wave materializes and that pressure-relief valve jams shut?

The country was already badly polarized before the plot twist of election night in 2016, of course, but since then liberals and much of what remains of Americas moderate center have been seething in a way that dwarfs the usual disgruntlement of whichever faction is out of power. While nobody can know for sure whether Mr. Trump would have lost but for Russias meddling, many of his critics clearly choose to believe he is in the White House because Vladimir Putin tricked the United States into making him its leader.

This November, if the wave turns out to be a mere trickle, we could see the accomplishment of that goal take hold.

Poll: Republicans Set To Win House Back In Massive Landslide

Republicans are set to win back the House in a historic landslide in 2022, according to a poll conducted by NBC News.

Based on all factors, youd have to consider Republicans the early favorites for the House majority in 2022, poll tracker David Wasserman NBC.

Democrats best hope is that Bidens approval rating stays above 50 percent and that Republicans have a tougher time turning out their voters without Trump on the ballot.

reports: The NBC report cites the all-too-predictable trend of the presidents party losing House seats in midterm elections, Democrats choosing not to run for reelection in some cases, and Republicans reaping the benefits of increased online donations, which are now on par with those of Democrats.

It is early, too early, to guarantee the Democrats loss of their slim 220-212 House majority. Voters wont hit the polls for almost 15 months, and things often have a way of changing on a dime in the world of politics. But the early signs certainly arent encouraging for the Democrats, especially as President Joe Bidens approval rating has taken a hit in recent weeks. American voters are being bombarded with images of a completely bungled withdrawal of Afghanistan and headlines about increased COVID hospitalizations and deaths. Inflation is also becoming a growing concern each month, contrary to the hopes of the Federal Reserve, and the crisis at the southern border shows no signs of abating.

Colwell: Republicans Are Likely To Win Control Of The House Next Year But

Three reasons why Republicans are very likely to take control of the House next year involve things over which Democrats have little or no control.

There is, however, one reason why Democrats might be able somehow to hang on to their slim majority. And they do have better prospects of at least holding on to the 50-50 Senate tie.

Reasons for Republicans winning control of the House:

FIRST: History is on their side. The party out of the White House almost always makes big gains in the first midterm election in a new presidency. In those midterm elections since the end of World War II, the average loss for the presidents party has been 29 seats. Democrats lost 63 seats in the 2010 midterm after election of President Barack Obama. Republicans lost 40 seats in the 2018 midterm after election of Donald Trump.

Because Democrats already lost seats in 2020, even as Joe Biden won the presidency, Republicans need only a net of five seats to win the majority. Democrats cant go back to 2020 to win more seats.

Factors in midterm losses for the presidents party include voters wanting a check on the president and disillusionment over any presidents inability to bring about everything voters hoped for.

SECOND: Redistricting after the census will result in many more safe Republican seats. Thats because Republicans control state legislatures in far more states than do Democrats. Both parties gerrymander. But it is the GOP controlling district drawing in many more states.

Site Map

Republicans In Decent Shape To Win House Majority In 2022

Washington Examiner

It is never preferable to be in the minority party in a legislative body. But as far as minorities go, House Republicans are in a pretty good spot.

Between the trend of midterm elections usually the party that is not in the White House, a closely divided House, and a party apparatus ready to continue their expectations-exceeding 2020 strategy while Democrats rework theirs, Republicans are on track to winning back the House in 2022.

“It has the makings of what could be a good year for the Republicans when it comes to the House,” said J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

President Bidens approval rating is around 53%, and while he is not underwater, history indicates he would need to bump that rating up by at least 10 points in order to have a shot at gaining seats. Gallup analysis found that even presidents with approval ratings of 50% during the midterm elections averaged a loss of about 14 House seats from their own party.

That would be enough to bump Republicans back into the majority. Democrats have the slimmest House majority since 1930, currently 221 seats to 210 GOP seats .

Republicans in the 2020 cycle shattered the expectations of analysts who forecasted Democrats to gain House seats in 2020. Not a single Republican incumbent lost the election, and they picked off 13 incumbent Democrats.

But it is not all smooth sailing for Republicans.

Why We Arent Going To Panic

We should all have our eyes wide open as we inch closer to the 2022 Midterms, but by no means should we give up hope. There are plenty of reasons why we can win the midterms.

For starters, Democrats appear to be quite awake to how dangerous the Republican party has become in just the past few years. And since the Republicans dont appear to be any less radicalized with Trump out of the party, I dont think Democrats are going to go back to sleep.

At this point in the election cycle, we dont have a full picture of who is retiring from Congress or who the candidates will be for these seats. Getting great candidates for crucial, must-win seats can energize voters and donors.

Presidential approval seems to have an important effect on midterms and at this point, Bidens approval rating is 15 points higher than his disapproval. If he continues to do good things for Americans and keep his approval rating high, that will help the Democrats a lot.

So, lets approach this midterm as clearly as possible: Our democracy is still on the line, and as awful as the Republicans are, they are in striking position to win back some power in Congress. Each of us needs to do everything we can to ensure that does not happen. If you arent already, consider subscribing to Political Charge as Ill be delving into specific actions we can take every month!

If you want to win the midterms, please share this post with others who want to win, too!

Republicans Will Likely Take Control Of The Senate By 2024

The usual midterm House losses by the White House party dont always extend to the Senate because only a third of that chamber is up for election every two years and the landscape sometimes strongly favors the presidential party . But there a still generally an out-party wave that can matter, which is why Republicans may have a better than average chance of winning in at least some of the many battleground states that will hold Senate elections next year . If they win four of the six youll probably be looking at a Republican Senate.

But its the 2024 Senate landscape that looks really promising for the GOP. Democrats will be defending 23 seats and Republicans just 10. Three Democratic seats, and all the Republican seats, are in states Trump carried twice. Four other Democratic seats are in states Trump won once. It should be a banner year for Senate Republicans.

Balance Of Power: 2022 Senate Races

If Democrats want to win the again, they need to win the four competitive seats they currently hold Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire. That or augment any loss with a gain in any of their three competitive targets Pennsylvania, , or North Carolina.

This Senate preview still holds up, but the shorter version is Democrats are easily favored in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. They should also win New Hampshire if Chris Sununu doesnt run .

The thing is, theyre also favored to win in Pennsylvania, where they have a strong field of primary candidates and where Joe Biden won.

They have to be no worse than, and admittedly probably better than, a tossup in Wisconsin, where Republicans have candidate issues and Democrats have a strong likely nominee.

So even if New Hampshire goes Republican because of some local candidate factors, Democrats are in a good spot to win the Senate again.

That means if youre trying to make a bet, you can essentially box out two of four combinations where the GOP wins the Senate, and focus your attention on the two remaining options, if youre looking for the values.

The 1858 Midterm Election

November 2, 1858

There is always a lull after a tempest, and so the political world has subsided into an unwonted calm since the election, commented a reporter for The New York Times. The Republicans are naturally . . . exultant over their sweeping victories. Such a commentary might apply to any number of elections, but this reporter described the outcome of a particularly historic electionthe midterm election of 1858. The Republican success that year was especially remarkable because the Republican Party was only four years old.

Almost by spontaneous combustion, the Republican Party burst forth in 1854 in response to the controversial Kansas-Nebraska Act. For decades, Americas political battles had been fought between the Democrats and the Whigs. By the early 1850s, however, the issue of slavery had splintered the Whigs into warring factions and divided Democrats between north and south. When Democratic senator Stephen Douglas pushed his Kansas-Nebraska bill to passage, including its proposal to settle the issue of slavery by popular sovereignty, the uproar among northern abolitionists and anti-slavery activists was too fierce to be contained by the ailing Whig Party. As one person commented, The Whigs were simply not angry enough.

The Future Could Actually Be Bright For Republicans

Ed Kilgore

The most common political narrative outside MAGA-land is that the Republican Party is screwed, and richly deserves the ignominious future it faces.

Until recently the GOP was a reasonably normal and intermittently successful center-right political party, not wildly different from its counterparts in other countries with a two-party system, despite some racist and militarist habits that burst into view in times of stress. But then America elected a Black president, and Republicans went a little crazy, according to those outside their circles. First they abetted a destructively antediluvian Tea Party Movement and then lurched into the arms of an evil charlatan who somehow got elected president and spent four years trashing hallowed conservative principles and losing both Congress and the White House before his disgraceful and violence-inflected departure.

Worse yet, in the face of huge demographic challenges that beg for a new approach, the Republican Party has now lashed itself to a Trumpian mast going forward, following the most consistently unpopular president in American history in his bizarre crusade to deny he has ever lost anything. Meanwhile a shockingly united Democratic Party is whipping a few decades worth of liberal legislation through Congress as Republicans whine about cancel culture and try to sell the idea that Joe Biden is actually Che Guevara.

0 notes

patriotsnet · 3 years

Text

Do The Republicans Have The House

New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/do-the-republicans-have-the-house/

Do The Republicans Have The House

I Do Not Buy That A Social Media Ban Hurts Trumps 2024 Aspirations: Nate Silver

Midterm elections: Do Republicans have a chance of keeping the House?

What do we make of that playbook headed into 2022? Likewise, as the party in charge, what are Democrats planning for?

With that being said, the GOPs strategies could still gin up turnout among its base, in particular, but its hard to separate that from general dissatisfaction with Biden.

Many Republicans Mobilizing Against Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill

The bipartisan group of senators who crafted the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act is preparing to take a victory lap as the Senate moves toward passing the bill in the coming days.

But a large number of Republicans are mobilizing against the bill that includes $1.2 trillion of spending and $550 billion in new spending on hard infrastructure projects, such as rail, ports, electric vehicle charging stations, and broadband.

Right after the group of bipartisan senators introduced the bills text on Sunday night, Utah Republican Sen. Mike Lee gave a long floor speech in opposition to the legislation, arguing that the Constitution does not give Congress to go out and spend money on anything that we deem appropriate and that the price tag is too high.

Shame on us for making poor and middle-class Americans poorer so that we can bring praise and adulation to ourselves and more money to a small handful of wealthy, well-connected interests in America, Lee said.

Missouri Republican Sen. Josh Hawley said that he would vote against the bill, sharing an article that called it an epic binge of green subsidies and more handouts for states and localities.

Several Republicans in the House are also stating their opposition to the bill.

No one should support something that will serve as a trojan horse for the Democrats reconciliation package, which the White House wants to use to pass massive amnesty, the RSC memo read.

Washington Examiner Videos

Is A Dream A Lie If It Dont Come True

Americas various disproportional representations are the result of winner-takes-all voting and a two-party system where party allegiance and geography have become surprisingly highly correlated. Places where people live close together vote Democratic, places where they live farther apart vote Republican . Under some electoral systems this would not matter very much. Under Americas it has come to matter a lot, in part because of an anti-party constitution.

Americas founders wanted power to be hard to concentrate, and for people who held some powers to be structurally at odds with those who held others. To this end they created a system in which distinct branches and levels of government provided checks and balances on each other. They hoped these arrangements would be sufficient to hobble any factions which sought to co-ordinate their actions across various levels and branches of government. The first two presidents, George Washington and John Adams, both warned that a two-party system, in particular, would be anathema to the model of government they were trying to build.

Take the Senate. To make sure the largest states do not dominate the rest, the constitution provides equal representation for all the states, large and small alike. This builds in an over-representation for people in small or sparsely populated places.

Don’t Miss: How Many Republicans Caucused In Iowa

Key Points From This Article

Single-member districts, natural sorting, and gerrymandering are the origins of bias in the House of Representatives.

One form of bias consistently helps House Republicans, vindicating liberal concerns of a structural imbalance. Another form of bias reliably benefits the party that wins control of the House, disrupting claims of a Democratic disadvantage.

If Democrats keep their current 7.6% lead in the two-party Generic Ballot through November 2020, they will probably hold the House and win more than the proportionate 53.8% of House seats .

Redistricting Is The Next Step On A Path To One

The redistricting process kicked off this week in Washington. The Census Bureau released initial data from the 2020 census Monday afternoon, , which means that congressional district boundaries will soon be redrawn to account for changes in population.

These changes will probably tend to benefit the Republican Party, as conservative states will get more seats for instance, Texas will gain two seats, while New York, California, and Illinois will all lose one. Republicans are also certain to use the process to try to gerrymander themselves as many additional congressional seats as possible by leveraging their control of a majority of state legislatures. And that is just the opening tactic in a long-term strategy to abolish American democracy and set up one-party rule.

Today in Michigan, gerrymandering means Republicans enjoy a 3.4-point handicap in the state House and a 10.7-point handicap in the state Senate; in Pennsylvania, it’s a 3.1-point handicap in the House and a 5.9-point handicap in the Senate; and in Wisconsin, a 7.1-point handicap in the House and a 10.1-point handicap in the Senate.

It’s impossible to gerrymander the Senate, of course, but luckily for Republicans that chamber is inherently gerrymandered due to the large number of disproportionately white, low-population rural states that lean conservative. The swing seat in the Senate is biased something like 7 points to the right.

Also Check: What Do Democrats Believe Vs Republicans

Are Senators Chosen By Popular Vote

Beginning with the 1914 general election, all U.S. senators have been chosen by direct popular election. The Seventeenth Amendment also provided for the appointment of senators to fill vacancies. There have been many landmark contests, such as the election of Hiram Revels, the first African American senator, in 1870.

Ernst Promises To Make Washington Squeal After Senate Win

In Louisiana, Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu was forced into a December runoff with Republican Bill Cassidy. In Georgia, Republican David Perdue cleared the 50 percent threshold to avoid a runoff.

Republican Sen. Pat Roberts of Kansas beat independent Greg Orman, who had refused to say which party he would vote with. For a time, it appeared he alone might determine the Senate majority. It ultimately didnt matter.

Obama, with a new Congress to deal with, invited leaders of both parties and both chambers to the White House on Friday for a post-election meeting, a White House official told NBC News. The presidents approval rating has bounced around the low 40s all year 42 percent in the final reading before Election Day.

Almost across the board, Republicans sought to tie their Democratic opponents to the president throughout the campaign. And the president mostly stayed away from states with close races, knowing his presence could hinder vulnerable Democrats seeking to distance themselves from the leader of their party.

The Republican takeover of the Senate will force Obama to use his veto power more often he has wielded it only twice in six years and could complicate his efforts to make judicial appointments, including to the Supreme Court.

Incumbent republican Tom Corbett of Pennsylvania was ousted by Democrat Tom Wolf. In Texas, Republican Greg Abbott beat Democrat Wendy Davis, who gained national fame last year by filibustering an abortion bill.

Also Check: What Is The Number Of Republicans And Democrats In Congress

Republicans Control Both Houses Of Congress; Democrats The Presidency: So What Does The Future Hold

After the 2008 election, Republicans vowed to do everything to obstruct President Obama and keep anything he supported from passing. When they lost again in 2012, they doubled down on this philosophy. Unfortunately for the country, this strategy, coupled with falsehoods about Democratic programs and the Democrats cowardly showing in 2014, Republicans now control both the House and the Senate.

The question facing Republicans now is what to do with this power. If they continue their obstruction and do nothing, they will not be able to shift the blame to Obama and the Democrats. If they yield to their conservative base, Obama will veto whatever they propose and two more years will pass with nothing being accomplished. If they work with Obama, their conservative base will rebel causing internal turmoil and damage to their brand going into the 2016 election.

On the other hand, the Democrats have to prove to their once loyal base, that they still stand for middle class values, job creation and strong financial reform. Their quietness in 2014 and lack of support for their president was a huge tactical error. As Obama angers the Republicans by passing immigration reform, opening diplomatic relations with Cuba and maybe vetoing the Keystone Pipeline, the Republicans have to prove they have workable ideas that will create jobs, improve the economy for everyone and that they can govern and get things done.

Explaining The Seat Bonus Bias

Republicans maintain control of the House and the Senate

To explain the seat bonus, we need to know what dynamics boost a partys share of House seats relative to its share of the national popular vote. Such explanations revolve around overperformance in swing seats. This is because small improvements in close races could push a party over the top to win these districts while barely registering in the national popular vote. Imagine that Democrats got a 3% boost in their 10 closest losses of 2018. They would have won each of those districts, increasing their House representation by 2% while boosting their national popular vote total less than 0.1% : a seat bonus of 2.9%. So, what could cause this kind of overperformance in swing seats?

One lies in the sheer number of swing seats, defined here as those won by either party by less than 10%. This range from +10% Democratic to +10% Republican covers a scope of 20%. There were 88 such districts in 2018. Election margins on the whole can range from 100% Democratic to 100% Republican, a scope of 200%. Our definition of swing seats accounts for 10% of all possible results. The 88 swing seats of 2018, though, make up 20% of all 435 House seats. This overrepresentation of competitive districts means that a small increase of a partys national popular vote could flip a disproportionate number of close races.

Each of these factors the incumbency advantage, the overrepresentation of swing seats and elasticity and more contribute to the Seat Bonus Bias.

Recommended Reading: How Many Republicans In Congress Support Trump

Four Flips For Democrats One For Republicans

Going into the election, the Democrats held 47 seats in the U.S. Senate while the Republicans held 53.

The Democrats have succeeded in flipping four seats: in Colorado, where former Governor John Hickenlooper easily ousted incumbent Cory Gardner, in Arizona, where former astronaut Mark Kelly defeated incumbent Martha McSally, and in Georgia, where Raphael Warnock defeated incumbent Kelly Loeffler and Jon Ossoff defeated incumbent David Perdue.

The Republicans have wrested back one previously Democratic seat in Alabama, where one-term incumbent Doug Jones was emphatically denied a second term by Tommy Tuberville, a former college head football coach, most recently at the University of Cincinnati.

Outgoing freshman Sens. Jones and Gardner were both considered vulnerable, as each was elected with less than 50% of the vote in 2018.

Republican Thom Tilliss victory over Cal Cunningham in North Carolinaby less than 2 percentage points according to the North Carolina Secretary of States latest tallyis one of several close Senate races that were not called until after election night. In addition to the seats from Georgia, close races also include the victories of incumbent senators Gary Peters and Susan Collins , which were not called until Nov. 4.

Republicans Win Fewer Votes But More Seats Than Democrats

Republicans controlled the post2010 redistricting process in the four states, and drew new lines that helped the GOP win the bulk of the House delegation in each. Republicans captured 13 of 18 seats in Pennsylvania, 12 of 16 in Ohio, nine of 14 in Michigan, and five of eight in Wisconsin. Added together, that was 39 seats for the Republicans and 17 seats for the Democrats in the four proObama states.

The key to GOP congressional success was to cluster the Democratic vote into a handful of districts, while spreading out the Republican vote elsewhere. In Pennsylvania, for example, Republicans won nine of their 13 House seats with less than 60% of the vote, while Democrats carried three of their five with more than 75%.

One of the latter was the Philadelphiabased 2nd District, where 356,386 votes for Congress were tallied. Not only was it the highest number of ballots cast in any district in the state, but Democratic Rep. Chaka Fattah won 318,176 of the votes. It was the largest number received by any House candidate in the country in 2012, Democrat or Republican. If some of these Democratic votes had been unclustered and distributed to other districts nearby, the party might have won a couple more seats in the Philadelphia area alone.

The Closest House Races of 2012

NARROW DEMOCRATIC WINNERS

Recommended Reading: How Many States Are Controlled By Republicans

Democrats Got Millions More Votes So How Did Republicans Win The Senate

Senate electoral process means although Democrats received more overall votes for the Senate than Republicans, that does not translate to more seats

Follow live updates on US politics

The 2018 midterm elections brought significant gains for Democrats, who retook the House of Representatives and snatched several governorships from the grip of Republicans.

But some were left questioning why Democrats suffered a series of setbacks that prevented the party from picking up even more seats and, perhaps most consequentially, left the US Senate in Republican hands.

Among the most eye-catching was a statistic showing Democrats led Republicans by more than 12 million votes in Senate races, and yet still suffered losses on the night and failed to win a majority of seats in the chamber.

Constitutional experts said the discrepancy between votes cast and seats won was the result of misplaced ire that ignored the Senate electoral process.

Because each state gets two senators, irrespective of population, states such as Wyoming have as many seats as California, despite the latter having more than 60 times the population. The smaller states also tend to be the more rural, and rural areas traditionally favor Republicans.

This year, because Democrats were defending more seats, including California, they received more overall votes for the Senate than Republicans, but that does not translate to more seats.

The rise of minority rule in America is now unmistakable

The Fossil Fuel Industrys Funding Of Denial

CAPs analysis of data from the Center for Responsive Politics shows that these 139 climate science deniers have accepted more than $61 million in lifetime direct contributions from the oil, gas, and coal industries, which comes out to an average of $442,293 per elected official of Congress that denies climate change. This figure includes all contributions above the Federal Election Commissions mandated reporting threshold of $200 from management, employees, and political action committees in the fossil fuel industries. Not included in this data are the many other avenues available to fossil fuel interests to influence campaigns and elected officials. For example, oil, gas, and coal companies spent heavily during the 2020 election cycle to keep the Senate under the control of former Majority Leader Mitch McConnell a known climate denierwith major oil companies like Valero, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips contributing more than $1 million each to the conservative Senate Leadership Fund.

This analysis only shows direct, publicly disclosed contributions to federal candidates. The fossil fuel industry regularly spends millions of dollars of dark money advertising to the public; shaping corporate decisions; lobbying members of Congress; and otherwise funding the infrastructure that makes climate denial politically feasible and even profitable.

Read Also: How Many Republicans Voted To Impeach Trump In The House

Also Check: How Many Republicans Are Against Trump

What The Midterms Mean For President Obama And 2016

Only one in three voters in exit polls said the country was on the right track, and one in five said the government in Washington could never be trusted to do whats right. Two-thirds said the economic system is unfair.

The Republican swing fit a historical pattern: The last three two-term presidents Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush all served their last two years with the opposing party controlling both houses of Congress.

And the party controlling the White House has lost seats in the House in the midterm election every time but twice since World War II.

In the Senate, Democrat Mark Pryor of Arkansas was ousted by Rep. Tom Cotton, and Mark Udall of Colorado was bounced by Rep. Cory Gardner. Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan lost her seat to Thom Tillis.

Democrat Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire held off a furious challenge by ex-Sen. Scott Brown.

Republicans Joni Ernst in Iowa, Steve Daines in Montana, Mike Rounds in South Dakota and Shelley Moore Capito in West Virginia all captured seats held by retiring Democrats.

0 notes

patriotsnet · 3 years

Text

What Happens If Republicans Win Midterms

New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/what-happens-if-republicans-win-midterms/

What Happens If Republicans Win Midterms

Gop Lawmakers Threaten To Punish Democrats If They Win Back Control Of Congress

‘When we take the majority back in 2022, I’ll make sure consequences are doled out,’ said Rep. Madison Cawthorn.

Republicans are outraged that Democrats are governing by majority rule in the House. In retaliation, they are vowing to do the same things they now decry as unprecedented and wrong.

“Never in the history of our country has a Speaker acted like such an authoritarian,” House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy on Thursday.